Tangle - The election results in Florida and Wisconsin.

Episode Date: April 2, 2025

On Tuesday, voters in Florida elected two new U.S. representatives, while Wisconsin voters selected a new state Supreme Court justice. The races were the first general elections since President Donald Trump took office in January. In Florida, Republican candidates Jimmy Patronis and Randy Fine defeated their Democratic opponents, preserving House Republicans’ narrow majority. In Wisconsin, the Democrat-backed Susan Crawford defeated the Republican-backed Brad Schimel, maintaining the court’s 4-3 liberal majority. Ad-free podcasts are here!Many listeners have been asking for an ad-free version of this podcast that they could subscribe to — and we finally launched it. You can go to ReadTangle.com to sign up!You can read today's podcast⁠ ⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠, our “Under the Radar” story ⁠here and today’s “Have a nice day” story ⁠here⁠.Take the survey: What do you think of Tuesday’s results? Let us know here.You can subscribe to Tangle by clicking here or drop something in our tip jar by clicking here. Our Executive Editor and Founder is Isaac Saul. Our Executive Producer is Jon Lall.This podcast was written by Isaac Saul and edited and engineered by Dewey Thomas. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet 75.Our newsletter is edited by Managing Editor Ari Weitzman, Senior Editor Will Kaback, Hunter Casperson, Kendall White, Bailey Saul, and Audrey Moorehead. Our logo was created by Magdalena Bokowa, Head of Partnerships and Socials.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

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we get views from across the political spectrum, some independent thinking, and a little bit of my take. I'm your host, Isaac Soll. Today is April 2nd, and we are covering the special elections that just concluded in Florida and also a big state Supreme Court race that happened in Wisconsin yesterday. Three elections that were being closely watched all across the country by national Republicans and Democrats. We're going to break down exactly what happened, share some views from the left and the right. And then I've got 12 thoughts on the results

from yesterday. With that, I'm going to send it over to John for today's main story, and I'll be back for my take. [♪ music playing. [♪ music playing. Thanks, Isaac, and welcome, everybody. Here are your quick hits for today. First up, the Department of Health and Human Services began the process of laying off roughly 10,000 employees

following Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s Health and Human Services began the process of laying off roughly 10,000 employees following Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s announcement of agency-wide reorganization last week. Separately, Attorneys General and Governors from 23 states and the District of Columbia sued the Trump administration over its cancellation of $11 billion in health program grants allocated during the COVID-19 pandemic. Number two, immigration officials said that they had mistakenly deported a man to a prison in El Salvador due to an administrative error but were unable to bring him back to the United

States. An immigration judge ruled in 2019 that the man, a Salvadoran national, could not be deported to El Salvador because of a credible fear he would be killed or tortured if he returned to his home country. 3. The U.S. Army, Europe, and Africa's Central Command said that it had recovered the body of a final missing U.S. soldier whose armored vehicle sank in a swamp in Lithuania last week.

Three other soldiers from the crew were declared dead on Monday. 4. Three other soldiers from the crew were declared dead on Monday. Number 4. Attorney General Pam Bondi directed federal prosecutors to seek the death penalty for Luigi Mangione, the man charged with murdering UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson in December. And number 5. Senator Cory Booker, the Democrat from New Jersey, broke the record for the longest speech delivered in the Senate after speaking for 25 hours and four minutes.

Booker said the speech was intended to disrupt Senate business in protest of the actions of the Trump administration. Polls have been open for six hours in Wisconsin, seven in Florida. Voters casting ballots in key races. Wisconsin's Supreme Court and a pair of house seats in Florida. Three battles, six candidates, but bigger picture. Tonight's results are really being seen as a vote on the policies of Donald Trump and on Elon Musk and whether voters will use these elections

to send a warning shot to Washington that even people in red districts may be running out of patience with this administration. On Tuesday, voters in Florida elected two new U.S. representatives, while Wisconsin voters selected a new state Supreme Court justice. The races were the first general elections

since President Donald Trump took office in January. In Florida, Republican candidates Jimmy Petronas and Randy Fine defeated their Democratic opponents, preserving House Republicans' narrow majority. In Wisconsin, the Democrat-backed Susan Crawford defeated the Republican-backed Brad Schimel, maintaining the court's 4-3 liberal majority. Florida's elections filled the seats of former Representatives Matt Gaetz and Michael Waltz. Gaetz resigned his seat in the state's first congressional district in November 2024, after

then-President-elect Trump nominated him for attorney general. Gaetz later withdrew his nomination amid sexual misconduct allegations. Waltz resigned his seat in the 6th District in January to join President Trump's cabinet as national security advisor. Both districts are solidly Republican, with Gates winning re-election by 32 points and Waltz winning by 33 points in 2024.

In the Florida First, Jimmy Patronus, the state's chief financial officer, defeated Democrat Gaye Valamont, a gun control activist, by roughly 15 points. In Florida's sixth, state Senator Randy Fein defeated Democrat Josh Weil, a teacher. Although polling in the final week showed Weil within four points of Fein, Fein won by 14 points. The victories in Florida returned Republicans to their previous House majority of 220 to

213. Separately, Wisconsin held its state Supreme Court election to replace a retiring justice on the seven-seat court. The state holds its judicial elections in April, and judges are elected to a 10-year term, and she led Schiml 55 to 45 percent, with over 95 percent of the vote counted as of Wednesday morning. Additionally, Wisconsin voters approved a constitutional amendment enshrining the state's voter ID requirement in its constitution.

The race drew national attention in part because the court will rule on high-profile issues like abortion access and union rights in the coming months, and a victory for Schiml would have shifted the court's balance toward conservative leaning justices. Additionally, the court will deliberate on voting rights and election rules in the battleground state ahead of the 2026 midterms and the 2028 presidential election. While judicial elections are technically nonpartisan, national Republicans and Democrats invested heavily in Wisconsin's election. The race was the most expensive judicial contest in U.S. history, with candidates, state parties,

and outside groups spending over $98 million, according to the Brennan Center. White House adviser Elon Musk was an active force in the race down the home stretch, holding a rally in Green Bay to support Schiml on Sunday and giving away two $1 million checks to attendees. Today, we'll share perspectives on the race results from the right and the left, and then Isaac's take. We'll be right back after this quick break. in an exciting live dealer studio, exclusively on FanDuel Casino, where winning is undefeated. 19 plus and physically located in Ontario.

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at LiveNation.com The right welcomes Republicans' victories in Florida, but many express concern about the margins in each race. Some say the Wisconsin judicial election will have far-reaching implications. Others say Republicans did well overall, but suggest Musk's involvement may have hurt them in Wisconsin. The Wall Street Journal editorial board wrote, The MAGA backlash arrives. Democrats solidified their 4-3 progressive majority on the Wisconsin Supreme Court on Tuesday, and the ramifications

are nationwide. The comfortable win by Democratic Judge Susan Crawford is the second sign in two weeks of a political backlash against the Trump presidency, the board said. That's a warning to the GOP that the Trump-Musk governing style is stirring a backlash that could cost them control of Congress next year, all the more so given the results in two special house races in Florida Tuesday to replace a pair of Republicans. These are safe seats, and Republicans won the Western Panhandle District

held by Matt Gaetz with some room to spare. But Jimmy Petronas' 57% was about nine points less than the 66% that Mr. Gaetz won in 2024. It was a similar story in the Palm Coast seat of former representative Mike Walz, the board wrote. Republicans can console themselves that they held the Florida seats and thus their narrow house majority.

And we hope the results don't scare House Republicans into backing away from their tax and regulatory reform agenda. That's what Democrats would love. So next year they'd get the benefit both ways, motivated Democrats and sullen Republicans after a GOP governing failure. Before the election, William A. Jacobson and Kimberly Kaye wrote in the New York Post about why George Soros and Democrats have gone all in on this week's Wisconsin court race. If liberals retain control, it's likely that the court will unwind the public sector union

reforms enacted when Scott Walker was governor, something high on union labor's wish list for the past decade. Issues such as abortion are also on the agenda, Jacobson and Kaye said. Voters gave Republicans an 18-15 majority in the Wisconsin Senate and a 54-45 majority in the Wisconsin Senate and a 54 to 45 majority in the Wisconsin Assembly. Yet a liberal Supreme Court bench would spell disaster for any Republican initiatives, but there's a lot more at stake than Wisconsin politics.

Early big money backers of Crawford, like George Soros and Reid Hoffman, recognized the potential of using the court to regain control of the US House and stop President Trump's legislative agenda in its tracks. That's because the Wisconsin Supreme Court will be ruling on challenges to congressional districts, where Republicans hold six of eight seats, Jacobson and Kaye wrote. Redistricting could net Democrats two extra seats and control of Congress. Crawford supporters even put out a campaign email touting the election as a chance to put two more House

seats in play for 2026. Democrats know what's at stake. In National Review, Jim Garrity said Tuesday could have been much worse for Republicans. The good news for Republicans is that House Speaker Mike Johnson wakes up to an imminent or gargantuan GOP majority of 220 to 213. After a lot of nervousness and runaway Democratic fundraising leads, both GOP House candidates — Jimmy Petronas in the first district and Randy Fine in the sixth — won with almost 57 percent of the vote, Garrity wrote. Yes, these margins are down significantly from normal GOP House wins in these places,

but if Democrats could win in either of these districts in a low turnout special election — less than 200,000 votes in either — with huge fundraising numbers, they're probably not winning in these districts for a long, long time. The bad news for Republicans is that the Wisconsin Supreme Court race turned out to be a thumping 55% to 45% win for Judge Susan Crawford. The progressive-minded majority will keep their 4-3 advantage in the state Supreme Court. But what really has Democrats ecstatic was that they wanted to turn the state Supreme Court race into a referendum on Musk, Garrity wrote.

It's a reminder to Republicans that while Americans may like the concept of the Department of Government Efficiency in theory, they're not particularly enamored with Musk himself. Alright, that is it for what the right is saying, which brings us to what the left is saying. The left is heartened by Crawford's victory in Wisconsin and the margins of the elections in Florida, framing the results as a repudiation of Trump and Musk. Some say the results reveal vulnerabilities for Republicans nationwide. Others criticize Musk for his involvement in the Wisconsin race.

In New York Magazine, Ed Kilgore wrote, Elon Musk goes bust. Musk not only personalized the Wisconsin race, he also boosted the stakes, saying at one point that the entire destiny of humanity rested on winning there. Without much question, his involvement helped energize Democrats, who saw a rare opportunity to take the arrogant tech bro down a notch or two, Kilgore said. The results could help produce progressive rulings in a variety of Wisconsin cases,

and perhaps even lead to a redistricting of congressional districts benefiting Democrats. Republicans fared better in Florida, where they held two vacant House seats as expected, winning both by 14 points. The margins were reduced from recent elections in part thanks to the same sort of Democratic grassroots energy that powered Crawford's victory and filled the coffers of candidates in the Sunshine State, Kilgore wrote. We'll have to see if Musk's face plant in Wisconsin affects his standing in Washington. Trump doesn't like losers and does enjoy shifting blame for adverse political trends.

The liberal win could sharpen knives in Republican and White House circles already concerned about Musk's sagging approval ratings and regularly outrageous utterances. In CNN, Eric Braden, Frederica Scowton, Steve Contorno, and Eric John shared their key takeaways from the race. The outcome in Wisconsin is certain to bolster the spirits of Democrats who are out of power and ideologically splintered after November's losses. It's also an ominous sign for Republicans who are entering a midterm election cycle without Trump on the ballot, and one that comes before the effects of Trump's management

of the economy, including tariffs, are fully felt, the author said. Musk's high-profile gamble and loss in Wisconsin raises questions about the effectiveness of his money and brand moving forward as he works to help Republicans next year attempt to buck the trend of the president's party losing ground in the midterms. Although Republicans won both special elections in Florida and shored up their party's narrow majority in the House, the races grew more competitive than expected in the stretch to election day, with the Democrats raising significant sums," the authors wrote. For GOP incumbents in battleground seats seeking re-election next year, the narrow margins in these deep-red Florida districts could serve as a potential warning sign of a tough

midterm environment if Democrats are able to sustain their enthusiasm in opposition to Trump, Musk, and the Republican agenda. In the nation, Jack Nichols criticized Musk for spending tens of millions of dollars to block free and fair elections in the battleground state. Even the most fervent Republican boosters might be skeptical that this election could influence the fate of these species so dramatically. But Musk argues that if progressives maintain a 4-3 majority on Wisconsin's high court, they might address the radical gerrymandering of the state's congressional district maps,

which currently advantages Republicans. If they make the system fairer, another Democrat, perhaps two, could get elected, Nicholas said. A lawsuit challenging the state's current congressional maps could reach Wisconsin's high court. But despite what Musk claims, the Wisconsinites who would be the plaintiffs on such a suit wouldn't be asking the court to create gerrymandered maps. They would be asking the court to help them get rid

of gerrymandered maps. Why wouldn't Wisconsinites want to eliminate the bias and draw fair maps that would allow Republicans and Democrats to compete based on the quality of their candidates and their ideas, as opposed to built-in geographic advantages. Musk doesn't see it that way. He wants to keep the competition rigged, Nichols wrote. In order to get his way, Musk is not just trying to buy an election.

He's effectively telling Wisconsinites that they should opt for a gerrymandered future rather than a representative democracy. All right, let's head over to Isaac for his take. ["Dreams of a New World"] All right, that is it for with the left and the right are saying, which brings us to my take. So there's a lot of meat on the bone from last night's results. And I'm just going to throw out 12 thoughts that I think, you know, we can take away from

the results of these races. First and number one, I think I'm one of an increasingly small number of political commentators who's consistently saying that the dynamics of Trump 2.0 of this second term are resembling Trump 1.0 more than a lot of people believe. One outcome that would bolster that theory would be Republicans taking major losses in the 2026 midterm elections in the same way that they did in 2018. I think that these three elections from yesterday are the first indication

that's coming. Number two, Democrats dominated a race in Wisconsin where they were outspent, where Elon Musk and his PAC spent 25 million dollars and where he warned that the entire destiny of humanity and the fate of America was on the line. It was also a race many expected to be competitive. In both Florida elections, Republicans won but saw Trump's margins gobbled up. It was 22 points closer in Matt Gaetz's old seat and 16 points closer in Mike Walz's old seat. If you were wondering why Trump pulled Elise Stefanik from the UN ambassador position,

you might consider that she won her seat in New York by 20 points. If this kind of shift takes place in 2026, you're almost certainly getting a Democratic House majority. Number three, money can't buy elections. Republicans outspent Democrats in Wisconsin and lost. Democrats outraised Republicans 10 to 1 in Florida's 6th district and 3-1 in Florida's 3rd district. They lost both. Number 4.

All of this is happening right now, two months into the Trump administration, before we've even hit the quote-unquote bumpy times that Trump keeps warning voters about. Remember, today is Liberation Day, aka Tariff Day. Trump's Treasury Secretary is warning of a detox period. The probability of a recession is going up, the markets continue to slide, Fox News hosts are telling people to think about their 401ks like they might in wartime. I really think we are headed for a serious economic disruption and I do not think Trump or the Republicans' popularity is going to improve before 2026.

Number five, Republicans should breathe a sigh of relief in Florida. There is no good way to spin the major swing in their margins, but there was a brief moment last week where Democrats really started to believe they could pull off a shocker in the fine wheel race. Trump actually had to hold a teller rally to get fine over the finish line. In the end, neither race was all that close and the GOP's majority in the House gets a little bit comfier. Number six, Democrats have a genuine opening with Musk front and center. He has completely thrust himself into the political world, now spending his time and millions in Wisconsin

for a state Supreme Court race. The writer Zae Jelani made the strong point that Democrats' problem with dealing with Trump is that the man is charismatic and funny and denouncing him often makes you look like you're humorless. Elon doesn't have this problem said said he has zero social skills whatsoever and often just looks like a jerk. He's a great target and quote. I think this is 100% correct. Musk favorability ratings are dismal and the more he does, the more he puts himself in the spotlight, spends money, treats the left like evil incarnate, and becomes the face of government cuts, the

better it is for Democrats. Case in point, Crawford even won in Brown County, where Musk held his rally last week and where Trump won by eight points just a few months ago. If Musk were quietly pouring resources into these races, it'd be one thing, but he's going above and beyond to antagonize the left, and I do not think it's a winning formula. Number seven, Charlie Kirk correctly made the point that Republicans are the low propensity party now, that is, the party of voters who do not follow politics closely. If turnout was higher in 2024,

election data suggests Kamala Harris would have been trounced worse than she was. Low turnout elections are going to be an issue for Republicans going forward, and that includes 2026. Their off-cycle strategies in Florida and Wisconsin didn't work, and that's an obstacle they are going to have to figure out how to clear in the non-Trump, non-presidential races going forward. Number eight, I still really hate the fact that we elect state Supreme Court judges. Watching millions of dollars in national

political influence was poured into Wisconsin in order to swing a state Supreme Court majority makes me deeply uncomfortable. Politicians and representatives should be elected. Judges, in my opinion, should be appointed. Number nine, despite Democrats convincing win in the Supreme Court race, Republicans got a huge win when Wisconsin voters enshrined voter ID into the state constitution. There are a few takeaways here.

Number one, the same electorate that propelled a Democratic-backed candidate to a 10-point win also supports voter ID laws. Number two, Republicans have a winning issue here in a swing state, even in an off-cycle election. Number three, Democrats should really consider changing their position here. As I've written, I support voter ID laws, so long as there is a provision to provide IDs to people who can't afford them.

It's a simple, common sense regulation that is ubiquitous across the Western world, and it could also tamp down on the burgeoning skepticism about election results in the United States. It's worth noting Wisconsin has had voter ID laws since 2011 and it doesn't appear to hurt either party right now. Plus, if you're on the left and want to be really cynical, Democrats no longer benefit from high voter turnout.

Number 10. Even though they may not be celebrating the margin of victory in Florida, House Republicans now have some genuine breathing room. The difference between a 212 majority and a 218 to 213 majority is significant, especially with the House Freedom Caucus members who are going to want major spending cuts in the forthcoming omnibus bill. The overall trend may not be a good sign for 2026, but keeping control of these seats creates a bigger opening for Trump to pass most of his agenda in the next year.

Number 11. Remember Matt Gaetz? It's pretty remarkable that he's no longer a member of Congress or serving in the Trump administration. Petronas, who's set to take his seat, appears to be a much less controversial politician. He's had a little bit of an anti-establishment streak and once suggested Florida taxpayers foot the bill for Trump's legal fees, but he brings a good deal

of legitimate experience to the position. It's legal fees, but he brings a good deal of legitimate experience to the position. It's a much different story from Gates, who came into Congress as a prominent online figure and did a lot more tweeting than legislating during his time in office. And number 12, not that we need any more confirmation, but yes, we are still a change electorate.

I have no idea how or when this trend in American politics will change, but for now we remain thermostatic. The middle moves against whoever is in office, the party in power struggles to turn out voters for special elections or midterms, and voters regularly act as a check on whichever political party is perceived

as being in charge. We'll be right back after this quick break. off with your mobile plan. You're not with Fizz. Switch today. Conditions apply. Details at Fizz.ca. Joe together with marshmallow and special guests, boys like girls playing Rogers center. August 21st, the greatest celebration of Jonas ever get tickets now with live nation.com. All right, that is it for my take, which brings us to your questions answered. This one's from Dee in Utah. Dee said, what is really happening to Social Security? Should we be concerned about our monthly payments? Okay, so for the time being, I do not think you need to be worried about your monthly payments for Social Security.

I may eat my words in the next few weeks, but right now Social Security payments in April are scheduled and planned to go out as usual. And I don't see any credible reporting that there will be issues with those payments. That being said, there is a lot to keep an eye on and a few things to be concerned about. One is major staff cuts, which a lot of experts

and Social Security employees are warning will impact customer service and wait times to talk to someone about your payments if you are having issues. With field offices closing and phone services being degraded, technical issues or problems with your payments could become a major lasting issue. The planned migration of the entire Social Security system from an old computer programming language to a new one could also be disruptive. This is an incredibly complex program impacting roughly one in five Americans, and I'm not an expert. But I can tell you from doing much simpler things like migrating my mailing list for

dangle from one platform to another, that problems always arise. A major change like this combined with staffing shortages does seem to be ripe for dysfunction. And of course, it should be said that some of this is already happening. The Washington Post had an extensive report about the Social Security Administration website crashing four times in 10 days in March thanks to servers being overloaded, all while field offices and systems to monitor customer experience are being overwhelmed or shut down. Naturally, we still have nothing in the way of reforms to actually improve the financial viability of the program reforms we desperately need. So to that end, who qualifies for benefits and who receives them is unlikely to change in the near future. Still, the program

itself does appear to be under some serious strain. All right, that is it for your questions answered. I'm going to send it back to John for the rest of the podcast and I'll see you guys tomorrow. Have a good one. Peace. Thanks, Isaac. Here's your Under the Radar story for today, folks. On Wednesday, President Trump will be briefed on the framework of a plan to keep the social

media app TikTok operational in the United States ahead of an April 5th deadline for the app's owner, ByteDance, to either sell or shut down its U.S. business. Under the proposal, cloud computing company Oracle would join a group of U.S. investors to submit a bid to ByteDance to acquire its U.S. operations. The Chinese government has signaled that it would be open to approving such a deal, but likely only as part of broader negotiations on separate issues, including tariffs.

The Wall Street Journal has this story, and there's a link in today's episode description. All right, next up is our numbers section. The approximate amount spent on TV ads in the Wisconsin State Supreme Court race was $70 million, according to Ad Impact. The approximate amount spent by Elon Musk's super PAC, America PAC, in support of Brad Schimel in the Wisconsin race was $12.2 million, according to NBC News.

The approximate amount spent by a Better Wisconsin Together PAC in support of Susan Crawford in the race was $8.4 million. The approximate amount spent on TV ads in the special election in Florida's 1st district was $3.4 million. The approximate amount spent on TV ads in the special election in Florida's 6th district was $6.2 million. The number of posts or reposts on X from Elon Musk about the Wisconsin State Supreme Court

race in 2025, as of Monday, is 73. Former Representatives Matt Gaetz and Michael Waltz's margins of victory in the Florida 1st and Florida 6th respectively in the 2024 election were 32% and 33%. And Jimmy Petronas' and Randy Fine's margins of victory in the Florida 1st and Florida 6th respectively in Tuesday's special election were 15% and 14%. And last but not least, our Have a Nice Day story. Connor Stefanoff, a 20-year-old pizza delivery driver using his grandmother's car, was tipped $2 after driving through a blizzard to a customer's home.

Lieutenant Richard Craig spotted Stefanoff trekking through the snow without proper gear and stopped to praise his work ethic. After discovering how much he'd been tipped, Craig gave Stefanoff the $15 he had in his wallet and started a GoFundMe, hoping to raise $500 as a tip for Stefanov. Three weeks and 2,000 donations later, the drive has raised over $41,000. Stefanov plans to use the donations to buy his own car. Today has this story and there's a link in today's episode description. All right, everybody, that is it for today's episode. As always, if you'd like to support our work, please go to readtangle.com where you can sign up for a newsletter membership, podcast membership, or a bundled membership that gets you a

discount on both. We'll be right back here tomorrow for Isaac and the rest of the crew. This is John Law signing off. Have a great day y'all. Peace. Our podcast is written by me, Isaac Saul, and edited and engineered by Duke Thomas. Our script is edited by Ari Weitzman, Will Kavak, Gellysault, and Sean Brady. The logo for our podcast was made by Magdalena Bikova, who is also our social media manager. The music for the podcast was produced by Diet 75. And if you're looking for more from Tangle, please go check out our website at reedtangle.com. That's reedtangle.com.

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