Tangle - The Florida abortion rulings.

Starting point is 00:00:00 Based on Charles Yu's award-winning book, Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu, a background character trapped in a police procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. The flu remains a serious disease. Last season, over 102,000 influenza cases have been reported across Canada, which is Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. yourself from the flu. It's the first cell-based flu vaccine authorized in Canada for ages six months and older, and it may be available for free in your province. Side effects and allergic reactions can occur, and 100% protection is not guaranteed. Learn more at flucellvax.ca.

Starting point is 00:01:00 From executive producer Isaac Saul, this is Tangle. Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening, and welcome to the Tangle Podcast, a place where you get views from across the political spectrum, some independent thinking, and a little bit of our take. I'm your host, John Law, and today we are going to be talking about the Florida State Supreme Court rulings on abortion. A quick note about tomorrow's Friday edition. With Isaac still out of the country, the full-time members of the Tangle staff decided to write a little bit about who we are and what we do, sort of a get-to-know-you kind of edition. Isaac wrote the introduction for that piece, and it'll be coming out tomorrow for paid subscribers. If you are not already a member, it is a great time to sign up.

Starting point is 00:01:56 Friday editions can include fully transcripted interviews, in-depth reporting, and opinion pieces from Isaac. It's a small monthly fee, but it makes a big difference for us and helps keep Tangle growing. Also, don't forget, we still have a few VIP tickets available for our April 17th event at City Winery in New York City. We've got a great lineup of panelists. It's going to be an amazing event. I highly encourage you to get your tickets while you can. There is a link in today's episode description, and we look forward to seeing you there. All right, with that out of the way, let's move on to today's quick hits. First up, bird flu was found in chickens at a Texas plant for the largest producer of fresh

Starting point is 00:02:42 eggs in the U.S. The producer, CalMain Foods, called 3.6% of its total flock after discovering the infected chickens and said there is no known bird flu risk associated with eggs that are currently in the market. Number two, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a law lowering the age of military conscription from 27 to 25 as the country tries to bolster its armed forces. Separately, NATO foreign ministers met to discuss a proposal for a 107 billion euro five-year fund for military aid to Ukraine. Number three, the death toll from yesterday's 7.4 magnitude earthquake in Taiwan rose to 10, while more than 700 people remained stranded. Local officials and seismology experts said Taiwan's early warning system and

Starting point is 00:03:31 modern building codes prevented significant damage and loss of life. Number four, President Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are scheduled to speak today amid heightening tensions following an Israeli airstrike that killed seven aid workers in Gaza this week. And number five, a judge ruled that the federal government must expeditiously house migrant children who cross into the United States unlawfully and cannot continue to allow them to remain in open-air sites along the border. A ruling on abortion could have a huge impact on the presidential election in Florida. Florida Supreme Court cleared the way for a new six-week abortion ban to take effect, but the court also put the issue on the ballot in November,

Starting point is 00:04:25 letting voters decide if abortion rights should be enshrined in that state's constitution. Nearly one year after Republican Florida Governor Ron DeSantis signed a six-week abortion ban, the Florida Supreme Court ruled that it could take effect in less than 30 days, giving the Biden campaign what it considers to be an opening to flip votes in the Republican stronghold state because abortion rights will be on the November ballot. The Florida Supreme Court late Monday paved the way for the state's six-week abortion ban to take effect. But the justices in a separate ruling said Florida voters will be able to decide on a constitutional amendment protecting abortion access in November.

Starting point is 00:05:09 On Monday, the Florida Supreme Court affirmed the ruling of the First District Appeals Court that the state's abortion restriction does not violate the Florida Constitution's privacy clause. The 6-1 majority decision upholds a state law passed in 2022 to ban any abortion before 15 weeks of pregnancy, and also triggers a stricter six-week abortion ban passed last spring to be put into effect on May 1st. In a separate 4-3 decision, the state court ruled that a constitutional amendment to limit government intervention in abortions meets the necessary requirements to appear on the ballot this November. A brief bit of history here. In 1980, Florida amended its constitution to state that every natural person has the right to be let alone and free from government intrusion into the person's private life. For decades, state courts interpreted the law as protecting abortion access. In April of 2022, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis signed into law a 15-week restriction on abortion, with exceptions for if the mother is at serious risk

Starting point is 00:06:10 of injury or death, but without exceptions for rape, incest, or human trafficking. The law was challenged by Planned Parenthood, who said it violated the privacy clause. The First District Court then sided with the state and allowed the law to be enforced while Planned Parenthood appealed to the state Supreme Court. Before the court's decision, Governor DeSantis also signed SB 300, or the Heartbeat Protection Act, into law in April of 2023. The law placed a restriction on abortions after six weeks of pregnancy, with exceptions for health and life of the mother, as well as exceptions for rape, incest, or human trafficking on abortions up to 15 weeks after conception. While the court allowed the 15-week ban to be enforced during appeal, enforcement of the stricter six-week ban was put on hold until the Florida Supreme Court issued its ruling. Meanwhile, in May of 2023, the organization Floridians Protecting Freedom Incorporated introduced a ballot initiative for an amendment

Starting point is 00:07:04 to the state constitution stating that no law shall prohibit, penalize, delay, or restrict abortion before viability or when necessary to protect the patient's health as determined by the patient's health care provider. In October of 2023, Florida Attorney General Ashley B. Moody filed a brief with the court to block the ballot initiative, saying it vastly understates the potential sweeping scope of the amendment by failing to explain what viability, health, or health care provider means. So what now? With its recent decisions, Florida's six-week ban will go into effect on May 1st, making it the last state in the Southeast to cap abortion access at or before 12 weeks of pregnancy. The proposed amendment will now be on the ballot in November,

Starting point is 00:07:49 likely increasing voter turnout and impacting key congressional races, potentially even the presidential election. Since Roe v. Wade was struck down by the U.S. Supreme Court in 2022, many states have voted on ballot measures establishing state constitutional rights to abortion. many states have voted on ballot measures establishing state constitutional rights to abortion. Majority liberal states like Vermont and California quickly adopted measures protecting abortion rights, while voters in some conservative states have either expanded abortion rights or turned down measures to limit them. In the 2022 midterms, voters in Kansas rejected a proposed amendment to the state constitution explicitly stating that it does not grant the

Starting point is 00:08:25 right to abortion. Kentuckians followed in suit, voting down a ballot measure aimed at denying any constitutional protections for abortion. Then, in 2023, Ohio voters approved a constitutional amendment ensuring access to abortion and other forms of reproductive health. These results, and polling that consistently shows a strong majority of Americans in favor of abortion access, have Democrats hoping that they can make Florida a battleground state. After the rulings came out this week, President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris both issued statements blaming Republicans for the new abortion restrictions, while Biden's campaign manager, Julia Chavez Rodriguez, released a memo calling Florida a winnable state. Biden and Democrats still face an uphill battle in Florida, where Donald Trump won by over 3%,

Starting point is 00:09:12 wore 370,000 votes in 2020, and DeSantis won re-election by nearly 20 points in 2022. Further, the Republican Party has a roughly 855,000 registered voter advantage over Democrats in the state, and Republicans hold all statewide offices, a majority in the congressional delegation and super majorities in the Florida House and Senate. Some Florida Democrats are cautioning Biden's campaign that more investment in the state could do more harm than good for the ballot initiative, potentially driving away Republican voters who would support the ballot measure but won't vote for Biden. State Representative Anna Eskamani said she expects Biden to support the initiative, but letting locals lead on this is smart.

Starting point is 00:09:54 Today, we're going to be taking a look at arguments from the left and the right about the Florida Supreme Court's ruling, then we'll share our take. We'll be right back after this quick commercial break. First, we'll start with what the left is saying. The left is critical of the court for allowing the six-week abortion ban, but relieved that the referendum on constitutional protections can go forward. Some hope Florida voters send a message to state Republicans that their policies are disconnected from the will of the people. Others worry that the court's majority opinion foreshadows a willingness to further restrict abortion rights in the future. The Tampa Bay Times editorial board said the referendum is a rare chance for Floridians to enshrine privacy rights.

Starting point is 00:10:47 The court's ruling was hardly a surprise, but the opinion exposed a political lens this court takes towards controversial policy issues and its willingness to pluck arguments from the ether to justify its decisions, the board wrote. The majority opinion, for example, noted that the phrase right to privacy gained new connotations after the Roe decision in 1973, including the choice to have an abortion. But the majority also dismissed the impact this association between a right to privacy and the Roe decision had on the decision by Florida voters to adopt their own privacy clause. That's why the court's other

Starting point is 00:11:22 decision to clear an abortion rights amendment for the November ballot is so helpful in potentially balancing the fallout, the board said. Florida voters have a rare chance this November to enshrine reproductive rights before the governor, legislature, and high court erode even more of our privacy protections. In Bloomberg, Mary Ellen Klass wrote, Florida can send an abortion message. The GOP is out of touch. Florida voters have always been more independent-minded than the elected Republicans that control the state, and they are poised to not only restore abortion rights, but to do it with the help of Republican voters, including many who will support Donald Trump, Klass said. But these ticket splitters should also step back and ask some serious questions

Starting point is 00:12:02 about how well their interests are being represented by the conservative Republicans who are enacting these backwards policies and trying to control women's bodies. In Florida, voters have a long history of demonstrating they don't trust politicians to regulate things they really care about. Republicans to statewide offices, Florida voters also approved measures to raise the state's minimum wage, authorize medical marijuana sales, impose redistricting rules, restore felons' voting rights, expand land and water preservation, and ban offshore oil drilling, Klaas wrote. They should send a message that they want modernization. In Slate, Mark Joseph Stern discussed the giant threat lurking behind Florida's November abortion vote. The court's split decision offers hope that Floridians can reestablish their state as an abortion refuge in the South this November. But an ominous current lurked beneath the rulings.

Starting point is 00:12:56 Six of the court's seven justices appeared to endorse fetal personhood under the state constitution as it stands now, expressing support for, as one justice put it, the unborn's competing right to life over the patient's right to bodily autonomy. The majority's rhetoric indicates that if the pro-choice amendment fails this fall, the Florida Supreme Court remains ready to grant fetuses and embryos a constitutional right to life that prohibits the legislature from legalizing abortion in the future. Six justices stand ready to institute fetal personhood under existing state law. The disagreement among this far-right

Starting point is 00:13:30 supermajority comes down to tactics, timing, and deference to democracy, Stern said. If the initiative fails in November, the legislature may never be able to loosen the state's current restrictions on abortion. Constitutionalizing fetal personhood would entrench the six-week ban and raise the possibility of a court-imposed ban that goes even further. All right, that is it for what the left is saying, which brings us to what the right is saying. The right is concerned about Republicans' vulnerability on the abortion issue and its potential ramifications for the 2024 election. Some urge the party to go on the offensive and make the case against a referendum. Others suggest Biden's posturing on the issue is hypocritical. Breaking news happens anywhere, anytime.

Starting point is 00:14:28 Police have warned the protesters repeatedly, get back. CBC News brings the story to you as it happens. Hundreds of wildfires are burning. Be the first to know what's going on and what that means for you and for Canadians. This situation has changed very quickly. Helping make sense of the world when it matters most. Stay in the know. CBC News. Based on Charles Yu's award-winning book,

Starting point is 00:14:53 Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu, a background character trapped in a police procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. The Wall Street Journal editorial board asked,

Starting point is 00:15:20 Will abortion make Florida a swing state? Opponents will argue the referendum's language is vague, maybe intentionally, and they'll have a point. Does a health exception cover mental health? Who qualifies as a health care provider? But these are the arguments Republicans have been making and losing for two years, the board wrote. When Florida passed a 15-week abortion restriction in 2022, Republicans were near the center of public opinion. That law would have been easier to defend at the ballot box. Then, last year, Mr. DeSantis signed a six-week law. If the result is that Floridians enshrine in the state constitution a right to abortion through viability, or about 24 weeks, that law will have been a strategic mistake for abortion foes,

Starting point is 00:16:01 the board said. The Supreme Court gave abortion policy back to the electorate, which is better than having it dictated by judges. Now the people are deciding. We don't doubt the sincerity of Republicans who vote for six-week laws like Florida's, but if they haven't persuaded the public, they might be courting political defeat. In red state, Banchi argued it's time for Republicans to stop being cowards and actually win on abortion. After the court's ruling, the reaction among some was predictable, if not pathetic. Conservative influencers who once proclaimed themselves unflinchingly pro-life suddenly got weak in the knees, taking the I-told-you-so approach to the issue. The very same people

Starting point is 00:16:40 who once criticized Republicans for not being pro-life enough have now decided to attack Governor Ron DeSantis' triumph for cheap political gain, Banshee wrote. Frankly, I'm sick of it. I'm tired of influential conservatives twisting in the wind, bending the knee on issue after issue, believing that if they just flip-flop one more time, they'll be ushered into power. That's not how politics work, and it's also incredibly immoral. How about Republicans who claim to be pro-life actually try to win on the issue for once? Instead of preemptively surrendering and trying to dunk on those with actual courage for clout, how about working to persuade enough people so that the referendum is defeated, Banchi said.

Starting point is 00:17:20 Florida is the perfect place to make such a stand. The referendum would need 60% to pass, which is already a high bar for pro-abortion advocates. Further, Republicans hold a large voter registration advantage in the state as a result of DeSantis' tenure. Take advantage of that and mobilize conservatives to go out and protect the unborn. The New York Sun editorial board criticized Biden for crowing about the political possibilities created by the referendum. Biden calls the ruling extreme and outrageous and reiterates his call for Congress to pass a law of restoring the protections of Roe v. Wade in every state, the board wrote. It is strange then to turn from White House warnings to the jubilation of Mr. Biden's reelection campaign. They are suddenly delighted about Dobbs and busy investing

Starting point is 00:18:05 in Florida as a pathway to victory. They realize that abortion is mobilizing a diverse and growing segment of voters to help buoy Democrats up and down the ballot. Can Mr. Biden, though, have it both ways? Can he attack the court that delivered Dobbs only to welcome its downstream effects as a path to winning the electoral prize of Florida, which could since the election? It would be remarkable if Dobbs, the product of a court shaped by President Trump, were responsible for trapping him at Mar-a-Lago rather than bringing him back to the White House. Could Mr. Biden learn that heeding the Constitution has its perks? All right, that is it for what the left and the right are saying, which brings us to our take.

Starting point is 00:18:57 So it feels like the court got both of these right, despite some valid objections. And of those objections, the issue with the privacy clause is a lot tougher to parse, even though the clause itself isn't very long. The entire text of Section 23 of the Florida Constitution reads, Right of Privacy. Every natural person has the right to be let alone and free from governmental intrusion into the person's private life, except as otherwise provided herein. This section shall not be construed to limit the public's right of access to public records and meetings as provided by law. It's true that there isn't anything in the text that explicitly ties privacy to abortion, which is a

Starting point is 00:19:31 pretty straightforward conclusion that the majority of the court arrived at in their 6-1 decision. However, as Justice Jorge Labarga said in his dissent, the clause has been historically used as a justification for the right to reproductive care without what it calls government intrusion. The dominance of Roe in the public discourse makes it inconceivable that in 1980, Florida voters did not associate abortion with the right to privacy, LaBarga wrote in his dissent. But historical precedent of judicial interpretation isn't the same as an edict of law. In that sense, this ruling is reminiscent of Dobbs v. Jackson, in which the court overturned the decades of precedent stemming from Roe v. Wade that allowed women to have access to an abortion through their second trimester. No law granted that access. It came through a

Starting point is 00:20:16 judicial interpretation. When the Supreme Court overturned Roe, they wrote that the matter of abortion would be returned to the people and their elected representatives. And that's exactly what's happening here. We also agree with the court's decision to allow the amendment to appear on the ballot. Though some on the right have criticized the language in the amendment as vague, that's not unusual for constitutional language of this nature. Here's what the proposed amendment says. No law shall prohibit, penalize, delay, or restrict abortion before viability or when necessary to protect the patient's health as determined by the patient's health care provider. This amendment does not change the legislature's constitutional authority to require notification to a parent or guardian before a minor has an abortion. That doesn't seem unduly vague. If

Starting point is 00:21:03 anything, it does an effective job conveying the amendment's goal to protect abortion access when a pregnancy presents a health risk. Is patient health arbitrary, and does it vary depending on the healthcare provider? Undoubtedly. It's the place of a constitutional amendment to specify exactly what those terms mean and in what cases they apply? No. Go read any amendment in the U.S. or any state's constitution and try to argue that this wording is in any way more vague. Those interpretations are up to lawmakers and their constituents. Here, voters are simply choosing the parameters they want to set for how future laws can be crafted. Before Roe was struck down, most pro-life

Starting point is 00:21:42 advocates were calling for the exact situation we have now, states determining their own abortion laws. But now that voters are making their preferences known across the country, the pro-life side has to reckon with that reality and make their case to voters to agree, rather than trying to prevent these votes from happening. For the respective pro-life and pro-choice camps in Florida, there's good news and bad news. For the respective pro-life and pro-choice camps in Florida, there's good news and bad news. The good news for the pro-life camp is that there's about to be a lot fewer abortions in Florida. Since Dobbs, the state has been a haven in the southeast who were looking to receive an abortion. Kate Cox, the woman who left Texas to receive an abortion, traveled to Florida. Now, there's no state south of Virginia or east of New Mexico where abortions are legal after 15 weeks of conception, with the usual exceptions.

Starting point is 00:22:30 For pro-choice people, that's the bad news. And it goes further, too. Abortions, with some exceptions, will soon be illegal after six weeks, placing Florida among the most restrictive states in the country for abortion access. Then there's the good news for pro-choice Floridians, the ballot measure in November. If passed, the Sunshine State will immediately flip to become one of the least restrictive states on abortion. Amendment 4 will require a 60% majority to pass, and right now it looks like the public opinion is leaning towards ratifying it. It isn't a done deal, but we know that protecting access to abortion is a huge winning position right now, which makes the good news for the pro-choice side better. Democratic politicians who, by and large, favor more abortion access will be getting a boost in November when this amendment is on the ballot, further tipping the scales towards the pro-choice side in the federal government.

Starting point is 00:23:20 That's all bad news for the pro-life side, but for what it's worth, we think it's good news for everyone that this issue is now in the hands of the voters if over 60 percent of floridians want this amendment then the law of the land should reflect the will of the people does the abortion amendment being on the ballot make florida a competitive state in 2024 for the presidential and senate races probably not republican dominance in flor Florida makes it hard to imagine that kind of seismic shift occurring, even with an issue as hot as abortion on the ballot. At the same time, many House Democrats in Florida will likely make safeguarding abortion rights the centerpiece of their campaigns, which could swing some local races and possibly help flip the state house. In sum, having this amendment to rally around in November is a big opportunity for Democrats, whose enormous spending advantage will, at the very least, force the GOP to invest

Starting point is 00:24:10 some of their resources into playing defense in a state they were supposed to easily carry. But we'll have to see how the Democrats campaign on the ballot measure and how voters react to it to understand how much of an impact it will have on the election. to it to understand how much of an impact it will have on the election. We'll be right back after this quick break. All right, that is it for our take. We are skipping today's reader questions since we gave a little bit of extra space to our main story. But as always, if you would like to have a question answered,

Starting point is 00:24:49 you can reply to our daily newsletter or send an email directly to Isaac at isaac at readtangle.com. Next up is our under the radar story. Learning loss, failing enrollment, and behavioral problems have continued to persist in U.S. schools since the pandemic, but student absenteeism is potentially the greatest challenge of them all. Chronic absence is defined as missing at least 10% of the school year for any reason, a threshold met by an estimated 26% of public school students last year, up from 15% before the pandemic. Absenteeism is up across districts of all sizes and socioeconomic makeups,

Starting point is 00:25:31 though communities with higher rates of poverty are facing the steepest increases. Researchers worry the pandemic has ushered in a fundamental shift in how parents and students view school and say absenteeism could be exacerbating a host of other problems in the education system. The New York Times has this story, and there's a link in today's episode description. Next up is our numbers section. The percentage of voters in Florida who said they would vote yes on the abortion rights ballot measure is 62%, and that's

Starting point is 00:26:05 according to a November 2023 poll from the University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab. The percentage of Republican respondents to the poll who said they would vote yes on the ballot measure is 53%. The number of registered Republicans in Florida who signed a petition for the proposed amendment barring the state from restricting abortion before viability or when necessary to protect the patient's health, is 150,000. The approximate increase in the number of abortions performed in Florida over the 15 months following the Dobbs ruling compared to the 15 months prior to the ruling is 15,200. The number of states that have voted on abortion-related ballot measures since the Dobbs ruling is seven. The number of states that have voted on abortion-related ballot measures since the Dobbs ruling is seven. The number of states where measures restricting abortion have succeeded is zero.

Starting point is 00:26:49 The number of states where measures or amendments protecting abortion are on the ballot in the 2024 election are three. That's Florida, Maryland, and New York. The number of additional states with pending ballot measures or amendments for the 2024 election is eight. That includes Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, and South Dakota. And last but not least, our have a nice day story. Filing taxes is a pain, and filing online can be an unwelcome added expense. Now, the IRS is introducing DirectFile, a service that will allow free online tax filing for simple tax solutions, which the Treasury Department

Starting point is 00:27:30 estimates could cover up to a third of all tax filings. This year, the IRS is piloting its program in a dozen states with the hope that at least 100,000 taxpayers will participate. Within five years, the program could save the average filer $160 per year or a collective $11 billion annually, according to a report from the Economic Security Project released Monday. CNBC has this story and there's a link in today's episode description. All right, that is it for today's podcast. As always, if you'd like to support our work, please go to readtangled.com and sign up for a membership. Doing so right now will give you access to tomorrow's Friday edition,

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Starting point is 00:28:48 We really appreciate that. We'll be right back here on Monday. So until then, have a great weekend, everybody. Peace. Our podcast is written by me, Isaac Saul, and edited and engineered by John Wall. The script is edited by our managing editor, Ari Weitzman, Will Kabak, Bailey Saul, and Sean Brady. The logo for our podcast was designed by Magdalena Bokova, who is also our social media manager. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet75.

Starting point is 00:29:21 And if you're looking for more from Tangle, please go to readtangle.com and check out our website. Based on Charles Yu's award-winning book, Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu, a background character trapped in a police procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. The flu remains a serious disease. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. and help protect yourself from the flu. It's the first cell-based flu vaccine authorized in Canada for ages six months and older, and it may be available for free in your province.

Starting point is 00:30:29 Side effects and allergic reactions can occur, and 100% protection is not guaranteed. Learn more at flucellvax.ca.

Tangle - The Florida abortion rulings.

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