Tangle - The Georgia Senate runoff.

Episode Date: December 6, 2022

It's Election Day in Georgia, where voters are deciding between Sen. Raphael Warnock and challenger Herschel Walker. Plus, a question about investigating Hunter Biden and the mystery unraveling in North Carolina.Find our previous coverage of the Georgia runoff and the midterm elections here.You can read today's podcast here, today’s “Under the Radar” story here, and today’s “Have a nice day” story here.Today’s clickables: Quick hits (1:04), Today’s story (2:10), Right’s take (10:10), Left’s take (5:24), Isaac’s take (14:45), Listener question (19:40), Under the Radar (22:58), Numbers (23:37), Have a nice day (24:18)You can subscribe to Tangle by clicking here or drop something in our tip jar by clicking here.Our podcast is written by Isaac Saul and produced by Trevor Eichhorn. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet 75.Our newsletter is edited by Bailey Saul, Sean Brady, Ari Weitzman, and produced in conjunction with Tangle’s social media manager Magdalena Bokowa, who also created our logo.--- Send in a voice message: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/tanglenews/message Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Twas the season of chaos, and all through the house, not one person was stressing. Holla differently this year with DoorDash. Don't want to holla do the most? Holla don't. More festive, less frantic. Get deals for every occasion with DoorDash. Based on Charles Yu's award-winning book, Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu, a background character trapped in a police procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+.

The flu remains a serious disease. Last season, over 102,000 influenza cases have been reported across Canada, which is nearly double the historic average of 52,000 cases. What can you do this flu season? Talk to your pharmacist or doctor about getting a flu shot. Consider FluCellVax Quad and help protect yourself from the flu. It's the first cell-based flu vaccine authorized in Canada for ages 6 months and older, and it may be available for free in your province. Side effects and allergic reactions can occur, and 100% protection is not guaranteed. Learn more at flucellvax.ca. From executive producer Isaac Saul, this is Tangle.

Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening, and welcome to the Tangle Podcast, the place we get views from across the political spectrum. Some independent thinking without all that hysterical nonsense you find everywhere else. I'm your host, Isaac Saul, and on today's episode, we are going to be talking about the Georgia runoff, which if you are listening to this on Tuesday, is happening right now. Voters are at the polls across Georgia determining what the final makeup of the Senate will be. We're going to talk about that and why the race actually matters, even though Democrats already have a majority locked in. Before we jump in, though, as always, we'll start off with some quick hits. First up, the Supreme Court heard oral arguments in a case where a woman is challenging the Colorado's Anti-Discrimination Act,

in a case where a woman is challenging the Colorado's Anti-Discrimination Act, saying it violates her right to free speech by forcing her to create a wedding website for same-sex couples. Court watchers believe the 6-3 conservative majority may carve out a narrow exemption in the law in favor of the website designer. Number two, the tallest volcano in Indonesia's most populous island has erupted, leading to close to 2,000 people being evacuated. Number three, hackers tied to the Chinese government stole at least $20 million in U.S. COVID benefits, according to the Secret Service. Number four, attorney Michael Avenatti was sentenced to 14 years in prison and ordered to pay $11 million for embezzling money from his clients. prison and ordered to pay $11 million for embezzling money from his clients.

Number five, the Department of Homeland Security has delayed the enforcement of real ID for two more years from May of 2023 to May of 2025. Vote 2022 in less than an hour. Poll polls open across Georgia for the special runoff election for the U.S. Senate seat. Today, Senator Raphael Warnock and the Republican challenger Herschel Walker have been campaigning hard down to the wire. They go head to head in the final hours with Warnock showing a slight lead. Now here to break down. Democrats have already secured control of the Senate with 50 seats, but Senate Republicans hope to keep that divide at 50-50. Today is election day in Georgia, where voters will cast their ballots in the Senate runoff between incumbent Raphael Warnock, the Democrat, and Republican challenger Herschel Walker. The two faced off in the November general

election, but after neither candidate got 50% of the vote, they headed to a runoff today. In November, Warnock won 49.4% of the vote, with 1,946,117 ballots cast for him. Walker won 48.5% of the vote, with 1,908,442 ballots cast for him. 108,442 ballots cast for him. Chase Oliver, the Libertarian candidate in the race, won 2.07% of the vote, or 81,000 votes. Oliver will not be in the runoff. This is the second time in as many elections that Georgia's Senate race has gone to a runoff. On Friday, election workers reported heavy turnout on the final day of early voting. As of Friday morning, at least 1.4 million voters had cast early ballots in person or via mail, Georgia's Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger said. That is about 37% of the total votes cast in the November 8th midterm election. Both Republicans and Democrats have poured resources into Georgia, with $80 million spent

on television ads in the last four weeks alone. If Warnock wins, Democrats will pick up a seat in the Senate, moving to a 51-49 majority. If Walker wins, the Senate will be split 50-50 with a Democratic majority thanks to Vice President Kamala Harris' tie-breaking vote. Currently, Warnock is considered the favorite, as recent polls show him with a slight edge, and he outperformed Walker in the first round of voting. Today we're going to take a look at some opinions on the race from the left and the right and then my take. You can find our previous coverage of the Georgia Senate race and midterms with a link in today's episode description. All right, first up, we'll start with what the left is saying.

The left emphasizes the opportunity if they win, saying Democrats could confirm more federal judges. Many question Walker's fitness for office, arguing that he is not someone who should be in the U.S. Senate. Some criticize the absence of substance in his campaign. In Bloomberg, Jonathan Bernstein said 51 Senate votes is a world apart from 50 Senate votes for Democrats. One additional Senate seat would make a huge difference for Democrats, for judicial and executive branch nominees, for oversight, maybe even for legislating. With a 50-50 Senate, any tie votes are broken by the vice president while the committees operate under a power-sharing agreement and are evenly split, Bernstein said. So the Judiciary Committee,

for example, which considers all judicial nominees, has 11 senators from each party. It will stay that way if Republican challenger Herschel Walker defeats Raphael Warnock. But if Warnock wins, Democrats will organize the Senate and have majorities on each committee. That will smooth the way for more rapid confirmation of judges and executive branch nominees, he said. Republicans in the current Congress haven't had the votes to defeat any of them as long as every Democrat stayed on board, but tie votes in committee gave them extra procedural tools to slow things down. There's no proxy voting on the Senate floor. If for any reason a Democrat cannot make a vote, it might need to be delayed. And while Democrats have stayed unified behind almost all of President Joe Biden's selections during the past two years, 51 Democrats

will give the White House just a bit of breathing room. In the Atlanta Journal Constitution, Patricia Murphy said Herschel Walker's campaign has been beneath Georgia voters. Among the many problems with his campaign is the fact that Walker has done the most limited of interviews outside of friendly media, Murphy said. We still don't know where Walker stands on funding for the war in Ukraine, for example, or potential cuts to Medicare or Social Security, nor which regulations he'd cut in his promise to reduce government red tape. Which committees would he want to serve on? Who would advise him? Who knows? If you think you'd get these answers by going to a Walker campaign rally, think again. Walker's stump speeches are heavy on slogans and heroic

biography and almost totally devoid of policy proposals. Walker tells his audiences about getting a scholarship to college and making the Olympic bobsled team. He calls them his family and swears to protect them. He warns them about transgender kids playing sports and asks if they'd want their daughters competing against him. No, comes the answer, Murphy wrote. Lately, his staff has imposed a rule that reporters cannot get within 20 feet of the candidate. That's kept him protected from both the easy questions he might have been asked and the hard ones, especially about his troubled personal background. That includes the atrocities he's been accused of by his son Christian, the three other children he never discussed before the campaign,

and the two abortions separate women said he paid for, which he denies, and accusations of abuse from a different ex-girlfriend. In the New York Times, Ross Barkin said Democrats need Mr. Warnock in power for at least two overriding reasons, to safeguard their gains in the judiciary and to bolster their national bench. In four years, Mr. McConnell's Senate majority confirmed three right-wing justices and 234 judges overall, many of them youthful conservatives rubber-stamped by the Federalist Society. Since Democrats retook the

majority in 2021, Mr. Biden has undertaken his own successful counteroffensive in tandem with Chuck Schumer, the Senate majority leader. Mr. Schumer's Senate has actually confirmed federal judges at a faster rate than Mr. McConnell at the time of the first midterm election, Barkin wrote. If Mr. Warnock wins, the Senate can move more rapidly and seek judges who are perhaps more progressive in their worldviews, the sort who could hit a snag if someone like Joe Manchin, the centrist from West Virginia, or Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona is the deciding vote. Democrats must evenly split committee members in the 50-50 Senate, giving Republicans the power to delay vote on judges, Barkin said. A 51-49 majority would be much more

dominant. Committees like the judiciary would be stacked with Democrats, greatly speeding up the confirmation process. There are about 75 vacancies on the U.S. district courts and nine at the appellate level. That number is bound to grow as more judges retire in the next two years. Democrats, with Mr. Warnock, could also be in a position to replace a Supreme Court justice. The 6-3 conservative majority makes this seem less pressing, but Ruth Bader Ginsburg's death was a lesson that Stephen Breyer, who retired this year, seemed to heed. Once you're of retirement age, it's best to leave the court if an ideologically friendly president and Senate majority are in control.

Alright, that is it for the leftist saying, which brings us to what the right is saying. Many on the right argue that this race is still important, even if Republicans can't take the majority. They urge Republicans to vote for Walker and limit the power Democrats have, but worry about Walker's chances. Others criticize Walker's campaign, but say he is still worth casting a ballot for. In Newsweek, Newt Gingrich made the case for why the Georgia Senate runoff matters for Republicans. With a 51-seat majority, the Democrats would control every committee. They would be able to advance judges and other Biden administration appointees without needing any Republican votes, Gingrich said. They would also be able to schedule hearings and push through whatever

radical legislation they dream up. At 50-50, there is genuine power sharing. Every committee has an even number of Democrats and Republicans. All nominations require bipartisan approval to be reported out of committees. Hearings must be held with bipartisan agreement. The difference in power between the Democratic and Republican leadership could change dramatically depending on whether the Democrats have a one-seat majority or have to share control. Aside from the Senate mechanics, there are enormous differences between Walker and Raphael Warnock as individuals. Walker is a genuine conservative who, as an athlete and businessman, knows the value of hard work, discipline, and commitment. These qualities are required for success at the individual and national levels, he wrote. He has a deep faith

in the American system and a sincere belief that opportunity is available to everyone willing to work hard. Warnock is an extraordinarily left-wing big government socialist dedicated to woke principles. He is to the left of even Senator Bernie Sanders. In two years in Washington, the Democrat has gone along with President Joe Biden and Majority Leader Chuck Schumer 96% of the time. In the Washington Examiner, Byron York said the numbers look ominous for Republicans. There's no doubt something about the race has changed in the last few days. For one thing, what was Herschel Walker's main reason for running, to prevent a Democratic control of the Senate, has disappeared. Democrats have already retained control of the Senate,

and the Georgia runoff won't change that, York said. Despite it all, Warnock is not a strong candidate. He is an undistinguished senator with a messy divorce and, as a pastor, serious questions about how his church funnels money to him and also treats its tenants. But of course, Walker has perhaps the messiest personal life of any recent candidate. For a while, previously unknown out-of-wedlock children seemed to be coming out of the woodwork, which has tended to lessen the effects of Republican attacks on Warnock. Yes, Walker sounds awful, but he still communicates with an audience. Listen to his speeches and you will hear a few simple, solid Republican positions. He wants to restore American energy independence. He wants to reduce federal spending. He is against

wokeness. He is for religious liberty. He supports police. He wants greater funding for the military. In the New York Post, D. Roy Murdoch said too many Republicans are ho-hum about this race. If Democrat incumbent Raphael Warnock wins, Democrats would dominate the Senate 51-49. But if GOP challenger Herschel Walker prevails, Democrats and Republicans will split 50-50 with major benefits for conservatives. A 51-49 Senate means that Schumer can tell Mitch McConnell, the Republican from Kentucky, to suck moonshine. Democrats could bark orders and laugh at the GOP's submissive position. In contrast, a 50-50 would force Schumer to respect Republicans. Nothing would happen until Schumer and McConnell renew or renegotiate their current power-sharing agreement. 50-50 would enable united Republicans to strand bills and evenly cleave committees. 50-50 would require

Vice President Kamala Harris to hang around to break tied votes, as she has 26 times to date. 50-50 demands every Democrat's presence to function. Schumer could not excuse senators from votes that would irritate constituents. This would become hazardous given Democrats' harrowing re-election prospects in 2024. Based on Charles Yu's award-winning book, Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu, a background character trapped in a police procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+.

The flu remains a serious disease. Last season, over 102,000 influenza cases have been reported across Canada, which is nearly double the historic average of 52,000 cases. What can you do this flu season? Talk to your pharmacist or doctor about getting a flu shot.

Consider FluCellVax Quad and help protect yourself from the flu. It's the first cell-based flu vaccine authorized in Canada for ages six months and older, and it may be available for free in your province. Side effects and allergic reactions can occur, and 100% protection is not guaranteed. Learn more at FluCellVax.ca. Rather than skip a tough decision, say, to expand school choice, Sherrod Brown would have to vote yeah and offend the insatiable teachers' unions or nay and anger Ohio parents and students.

Herschel Walker is the gateway to the Joe Manchin veto. 50-50 once again would empower the non-insane West Virginia Democrat to derail his caucus's zaniest dreams. 51-49 would let Schumer dismiss Manchin's concerns rather than accommodate or swallow them. All right, that is it for the left and the right are saying, which brings us to my take. So in our final bit of midterm coverage, I said that a split Senate heading into this race was an advantage for Democrats. My philosophy here is tied to David Shore's theory of the thermostatic voter. That is, voters react strongly to change and try to limit it. If voters in Georgia had a chance to flip this seat and hand the Senate to Republicans, I think they'd be in a stronger position than they

are now. Instead, the Senate is already lost, and they're left trying to motivate conservative voters by warning them that Democrats may have full control of committee assignments in the Senate, which is really not the sexiest talking point to drive turnout. It's also just a matter of how all the other races played out. So far, we've seen Trump-endorsed candidates in swing states struggle, we've seen Democrats thrive in states where abortion rights were in play, and we've seen candidates with a lot of personal baggage turn off independents. I expect all of that to matter in this race. And all of it favors Democrats just slightly in a race where Trump has endorsed Walker, Georgia may restrict abortion rights, and Walker has a lot of baggage. There's also the fact that Warnock is already holding a slight edge in the polling. This morning, Cook Political's Dave Wasserman said he thinks if the race were

outside a two to four point margin, he would bet Warnock was going to win by more than four points. And again, this is all in a context where Republican voters may not feel this race really matters. Of course, this race does matter. A lot. Firstly, for the map. Senators hold six-year terms and Democrats have a terrible Senate map ahead of them in 2024, one that almost guarantees they will end up in the Senate minority unless they can manage a blowout. Taking any seat off that map now will give them a fighting chance to mitigate those losses, and Democrats know this. It's why they have outspent Republicans in this race and why Barack Obama returned to Georgia last month to campaign. But most importantly for Democrats is the

judiciary. As both Barkin and Gingrich noted above, the mechanics of the Senate restrain power significantly in a 50-50 split. Even though Democrats technically have a majority in legislation, it makes confirmation of high-ranking officials and justices in committee much harder than it would be with a 51-49 Senate majority. That is especially important when you zoom out and look at the federal judiciary. Perhaps the most lasting impact of the Donald Trump-Mitch McConnell years is how they reshaped the federal courts for conservatives. I do not like speaking about our courts in political terms. Conservative justices aren't the same as legislative Republicans. We know that justices don't always rule how you

expect them to, and quote-unquote conservative justices can just as often limit conservative lawmaking as liberal lawmaking and vice versa. Still, McConnell and Trump managed a 6-3 conservative majority on the Supreme Court and confirmed 234 bona fide conservative justices who will all serve for the rest of their lives. We have seen in real terms the impact of these appointments, and it's silly to argue this overhaul hasn't advanced a more conservative vision of the country. It has. This is, perhaps, the crowning achievement of the Trump presidency and certainly of McConnell's career. Biden has quietly gone on his own crusade of confirming liberal justices and up to now has had to win over both Senators Joe Manchin, the Democrat from West Virginia, and Kyrsten Sinema,

the Democrat from Arizona, while also navigating all the tools Republicans have to slow the process down. Most of the 85 justices he has pushed through are traditional liberal types, but a 51-49 majority would open the door for the administration to push for more progressive justices. This is, above all else, what makes this such a high-stakes election for both the left and the right. I also wouldn't underestimate the possibility of a Supreme Court vacancy. There is already chatter in left-wing circles I follow of ushering Sonia Sotomayor or Elena Kagan out. For all the idolatry of Ruth Bader Ginsburg, many Democrats felt spurned by her refusal to retire, which set Trump and McConnell up for the incredible opportunity to confirm three

Supreme Court justices in just four years. Two of those justices, Amy Coney Barrett and Neil Gorsuch, are in their 40s and all will serve for life. Democrats would surely love to lock in another youthful Supreme Court justice, and given Sotomayor's health problems, it's not unreasonable to imagine her feeling increasingly pressured to walk away just a little early. She is, at 68 years old, nearing a fairly common retirement age for Supreme Court justices. All this is to say, there is a lot of reason to keep an eye on this election and a lot of reason for voters on both sides to turn out. Operating with a 51-49 majority is a different ballgame than a 50-50 majority, and leaders of each party know this.

The question now is which party's voters recognize these states and how many of them will actually turn out to vote. All right, that brings us to our reader question today, which is from Aaliyah in Menlo Park, California. Aaliyah said, why would you equate the need for a special counsel to investigate former President Trump with the investigation of Hunter Biden, who has never been elected to public office? It seems like a form of whataboutism. So for starters, I don't think this is whataboutism. Whataboutism is generally when you try to change the subject to something else that is vaguely but not really related. Since yesterday's edition was about Hunter Biden,

it would have been whataboutism to write something like, this is bad, but what about what Trump's children did? Let's talk about that instead. I appreciate that you're saying the cases are distinct, and I could be making a false equivalency. My reasoning for bringing up a special counsel for Hunter Biden, though, is twofold. First, while Hunter Biden has never held public office, he is under federal investigation, which means that there is a direct connection between him and the federal government's judicial system. Given this, the fact that he is the son of the man who runs the federal government seems like system. Given this, the fact that he is the son of the man who runs the federal government seems like an obvious issue. Special counsels are, historically

speaking, still a fairly new creation, but they are designed to assure the public's trust in scenarios where conflicts of interest may be perceived. A Biden appointee leading a department that is investigating his son seems like one such situation. Second, it's possible that an investigation into Hunter could touch his father. This, to me, is the most critical reason. Hunter is under investigation for financial crimes, like not reporting income from his overseas ventures. One big question is whether he ever roped his dad into his foreign business deals abroad. We know from the Hunter laptop that, at the very least, he tried. We know Biden has met with some of those business partners, and we are pretty sure Hunter suggested at least once to put aside

a stake in a venture for his father. I gather you have more liberal views based on your question, so let me put it this way. If an attorney general appointed by Trump was investigating one of Trump's kids for the millions of dollars of overseas money that they were getting while their dad was president, wouldn't you want that investigation to have some separation from Trump? If this had happened during Trump's presidency, would you want the investigation overseen by someone like Bill Barr? Probably not. In this case, imagine the Justice Department is investigating Hunter's alleged financial crimes and discovers, say, a scheme where he was peddling his dad's influence in exchange for a stake in a company where he was also putting aside equity for his in exchange for a stake in a company where he was

also putting aside equity for his father's post-political life. That would be a pretty serious scandal, and I'd prefer such an investigation to have an extra degree of separation from Attorney General Merrick Garland. For whatever it's worth, there are also good and similar arguments not to have a special counsel in the Hunter Biden case. One of those is that the Hunter Biden investigation began in 2018, and the man currently overseeing it is David Weiss, a U.S. attorney in Delaware who is also a Trump appointee. Weiss could never be mistaken for an ally of President Biden's, and I'm surprised more conservatives aren't calling for leaving the supervision of the case in his hands.

In other words, removing Weiss and replacing him with a special counsel would probably also be viewed as a political act, just as not appointing a special counsel is, which puts Biden and the Justice Department in a sticky situation. These are the kinds of problems that arise when the son of a president is tied up in shady business dealings. All right, that is it for your questions answer, which brings us to our under the radar section. It has now been more than two days since Moore County, North Carolina went dark and many questions remain unanswered. Two power substations were attacked with gunfire, leaving nearly 40,000 homes and businesses without power just 60 miles outside of Raleigh. Nobody knows who fired the gunshots or why, but with temperatures dropping into the 40s overnight, residents are trying to find ways to stay warm. The eerie result

is an entire town immersed in darkness, where a few generators are powering a handful of homes and businesses. Axios Raleigh has the story, and there's a link to it in today's episode description. episode description. Next up is our numbers section. 41% is President Joe Biden's favorability rating in Georgia, according to the latest CNN SSRS poll. President Joe Biden's unfavorability rating in Georgia is 52%. Former President Trump's favorability rating in Georgia is 39%, Former President Trump's favorability rating in Georgia is 39%, while former President Trump's unfavorability rating in Georgia is 54%. Zero is the number of visits Trump or Biden has made to Georgia in the last month. 21% is the percentage of Georgia voters who have an unfavorable view of both Trump and Biden. All right, last but not least, our have a nice day section. Employees at a Home Depot in Tennessee worked together to track down the owner of $700 in cash that was found in an

envelope dropped outside the store. Adam Atkinson was the first person to discover the envelope, which he thought was empty before picking it up. He turned the money in to his manager. The manager, Alyssa Roche, ended up posting about the story on Facebook, omitting certain details to see if anyone could credibly claim it. A man eventually reached out saying the money belonged to his business partner, Jonathan Clayton. I was stressing over it pretty bad, so I'm glad that he is a social media guy and was able to see that because I never would have seen it, Clayton said. Roche praised Atkinson for turning the money in.

UPI has the story, and there's a link to it in today's episode description. All right, everybody, that is it for today's podcast. We'll be back here same time tomorrow. Before you go, don't forget to share the podcast with some friends or punch that five-star rating for us. Both help us a lot. We'll see you then. Have a good one. Peace. Thank you. We'll see you next time. on Charles Yu's award-winning book. Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu, a background character trapped in a police procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal

web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. The flu remains a serious disease. Last season, over 102,000 influenza cases have been reported across Canada, Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. from the flu. It's the first cell-based flu vaccine authorized in Canada for ages six months and older, and it may be available for free in your province. Side effects and allergic reactions can occur, and 100% protection is not guaranteed. Learn more at flucellvax.ca.