Tangle - The government... doesn't shut down?

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Starting point is 00:00:29 Based on Charles Yu's award-winning book, Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu, a background character trapped in a police procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. From executive producer Isaac Saul, This is Tangle. Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening, and welcome to the Tangle podcast, the place we get views from across the political spectrum, some independent thinking, and a little bit of my take. I am your host, Isaac Saul,

Starting point is 00:01:29 and on today's episode, we're going to be talking about the non-shutdown. That's right, the government did not shut down over the weekend, shocking many political commentators, including me, with a last second deal. We're going to talk about exactly what happened and where we go from here. Before we jump in, a quick heads up that we've got some fresh content out on our YouTube channel. On Friday, we released a subscribers-only transcript of an interview I did with Nick Troiano. That interview is now up on our YouTube channel, so you can go watch it for free if you'd like. We also released a video last week about decorum in the Senate, dress codes, Lauren Boebert vaping in public, all that good juicy stuff. So two new, awesome, interesting videos, I think, up on our channel right now. And if you want to go

Starting point is 00:02:12 check them out, you can do that by looking up Tangle News on YouTube. With that out of the way, we'll jump in today with some quick hits. First up, Senator Dianne Feinstein, the 90-year-old California Democrat and longest-serving female senator in U.S. history, died on Friday. Governor Gavin Newsom, the Democrat named LaFonza Butler president of Emily's List, to fill the seat. Number two, Representative Jamal Bowman, the Democrat from New York, is facing a potential ethics probe after being caught on camera pulling a fire alarm while Democrats were attempting to delay a vote to avoid a government shutdown. Bowman claimed he pulled the fire alarm and attempting to open a door. Number three, the Supreme Court said it will hear a lawsuit against

Starting point is 00:03:00 Florida and Texas laws which restrict social media companies to moderate content. Number four, federal student loan payments were started on Sunday after a three-year pause. And number five, former President Trump will appear in a Manhattan courtroom today for the beginning of a civil fraud trial. He's being charged with inflating his net worth by billions of dollars to obtain favorable terms on bank loans and insurance policies. Good evening. We begin tonight in Washington, where with just hours to spare before a midnight deadline, Congress has reached an agreement to avert a government shutdown. This afternoon, the House passed a short-term spending bill that provides funding to federal agencies for 45 days. A divided Congress, of course, taking it down to the wire, quite literally to the 11th hour,

Starting point is 00:03:56 settling on a short-term solution to keep federal money flowing. The president signing the bill overnight after it passed the House and Senate, and it funds the government for 45 days, including $16 billion for disaster relief. There is no additional aid to Ukraine. Against all odds, Congress found a way to avoid a government shutdown. The bill is passed and without objection, the motion to reconsider is laid on the table. At the 11th hour, Speaker Kevin McCarthy calling an audible and defying his conservative rebels by putting a 45 day spending bill on the table. At the 11th hour, Speaker Kevin McCarthy calling an audible and defying his conservative rebels by putting a 45-day spending bill on the floor. It is very clear that I tried every possible way to listen to every single person in the conference.

Starting point is 00:04:37 In a dramatic few hours on Saturday, Congress narrowly avoided a government shutdown as House Speaker Kevin McCarthy passed a stopgap funding measure with the support of moderate Republicans and all but one House Democrat. The bill passed 335 to 91 in the House, with about half of Republicans voting against it. It was then passed 88 to 9 hours later in the Senate. President Biden signed the measure late Saturday night with just hours to spare. For an explanation of how government shutdowns work and the major tension on this particular showdown, you can go listen to our podcast from September 21st. McCarthy's decision to help pass the bill was a shock to many in Washington, D.C., and enraged his conservative members from the

Starting point is 00:05:19 House Freedom Caucus, who have vowed to bring up a vote to remove him as Speaker later this week. The continuing resolution, or CR, also known as a stopgap funding measure, will keep the government funded for the next 45 days at fiscal year 2023 levels. It also includes $16 billion for disaster relief and reauthorizes the FAA and national flood insurance programs through the end of the year. However, the bill did not include any new funding for Ukraine, a priority for Democrats, or any border security legislation, a priority for Republicans. The lone Democrat to vote against the bill in the House was Illinois Representative Mike Quigley, the co-chair of the Congressional Ukraine Caucus, who said passing the bill without Ukraine

Starting point is 00:06:00 funding was a victory for Putin. Now, a group of House Republicans led by Florida Representative Matt Gaetz is expected to try to oust McCarthy from his speakership, and Democrats will have to decide whether to protect him with their votes. Meanwhile, McCarthy has pledged to bring forward a bill that would pair Ukraine funding with a border security provision. For the last several weeks, McCarthy has promised that Republicans wouldn't pass a government funding bill like the one passed Saturday, which did not include big spending cuts or new provisions to secure the U.S.-Mexico border. McCarthy defended himself from attacks on the decision. If someone wants to make a motion against me, bring it, McCarthy said after the bill passed.

Starting point is 00:06:39 There has to be an adult in the room. I'm going to govern with what is the best for this country. I'm going to be a conservative that gets things done for the American public, and whatever that holds, so be it. In another interesting twist, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell was overruled by his Senate colleagues this weekend. McConnell wanted to pass a CR that included $6 billion in funding for Ukraine, but announced to reporters that Senate Republicans would not support Democrats in passing a CR with Ukraine funding, which ultimately helped lead to the CR to keep the government open for 45 days. Today, we're going to share some opinions from the right and the left on this surprise bill, and then my take. Before we jump in, a quick point of agreement. There are voices on both sides who believe

Starting point is 00:07:36 McCarthy made the right call to put forward a bill that could garner Democratic votes. Most on the left wanted the government kept open, while many conservative commentators believed the government shutdown would not be advantageous politically. With that out of the way, let's jump in with what the right is saying. The right is ambivalent about the bill, with many critical of the far-right GOP members who forced McCarthy to make a deal and may now try to oust him. Some think the dynamics of how the episode played out are more consequential than the bill itself. Others question the narrative that Democrats are more consequential than the bill itself. Others question the narrative that Democrats got what they wanted in the end.

Starting point is 00:08:13 In National Review, Yuval Levin explained why the continuing resolution to keep the government funded changed more than you think. The bill itself is largely a wash. It doesn't change much about what our government does or how much it spends, and neither party won much or lost much through its passage. But the way it happened was extremely consequential, and it tells us at least three important things. First, it signals a new phase of the McCarthy speakership. Until Saturday, Kevin McCarthy had managed to mostly keep his conference's various factions together by avoiding any real governing choices, Levin wrote. Over the past week or so, McCarthy put House Freedom Caucus members in a position that revealed they had no intention of ever voting for spending bills that could also pass the Senate. His goal was always to make it clear to the rest of the conference that there

Starting point is 00:08:54 was no way forward except a legislative vehicle that could get some Democratic votes. Second, the CR also signals a new phase for Senate Republicans. Mitch McConnell has generally led Senate Republicans by avoiding taking strong substantive positions himself and instead facilitating consensus, focusing on process, and protecting Republican senators from hard votes. But in this appropriations process, McConnell staked out a firm, substantive position regarding funding for American aid to Ukraine, Levin said. funding for American aid to Ukraine, Levin said. Third and finally, Saturday's extraordinary turn of events puts Ukraine funding at the heart of the continuing struggle over appropriations. American support for Ukraine has suffered a substantial setback in this process. On that front, too, things will not be the same after Saturday.

Starting point is 00:09:39 The Wall Street Journal editorial board said any effort to oust McCarthy as House Speaker because of the bill would empower Democrats. Kevin McCarthy chose the only option he had on Saturday to avoid a pointless government shutdown by seeking a bipartisan vote. He succeeded, but now the GOP Jacobins who blocked a Republican-only bill are plotting to oust Mr. McCarthy as House Speaker as soon as this week. Mr. McCarthy had worked hard until the day before a shutdown deadline to pass a 45-day funding bill that included a spending reduction, money for border security, and a commission on the growing federal debt. It wouldn't have passed the Senate, but it would at least have given the House leverage in conference. The GOP's rejectionist defeated everything.

Starting point is 00:10:19 That left Mr. McCarthy no choice but to seek Democratic votes for a funding bill that included no GOP priorities. In response to the deal, Representative Matt Gaetz vowed to introduce a motion to vacate the Speaker's chair. The question for the Jacobins is what's the plan if they oust Mr. McCarthy, the board asked. Mr. Gaetz scores Mr. McCarthy for relying on Democrats for the funding bill, but Mr. Gaetz is counting on nearly all Democrats to join him to oust Mr. McCarthy. Democrats could decide to provide some votes to save the speaker, but they may prefer to see the GOP conference in chaos, the board said. The Republicans who want to topple Mr. McCarthy

Starting point is 00:10:55 are motivated by personal animus that has nothing to do with public good. In PJ Media, Matt Margolis asked, was the stopgap funding bill really a victory for Democrats? House Democrats are framing the outcome as a win for their party, but is that really what happened or are Democrats projecting? Make no mistake about it, Democrats want people to believe that it was a victory for them, and the media is certainly doing its part to push that narrative. But Democrats didn't get what they really wanted, a shutdown. It seems that Jeffries and other Democrat leaders want us to forget that they literally made multiple attempts to delay the vote on the stopgap resolution in the hopes of not meeting the deadline for funding the government, thereby forcing a shutdown, Margolis wrote.

Starting point is 00:11:36 Democrats claiming they wanted to review the stopgap resolution was also a laughable excuse. House members aren't exactly known for reading bills before they're passed. In fact, history has shown that Democrats are all for passing a bill in order to find out what's in it. laughable excuse. House members aren't exactly known for reading bills before they're passed. In fact, history has shown that Democrats are all for passing a bill in order to find out what's in it. As former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said about Obamacare back in the day, Margolis said, Democrats want a shutdown. History has shown that Democrats will blame every shutdown on the Republicans. And when a Democrat is in the Oval Office, that president will use their power to make the shutdown as painful as possible to maximize the political fallout. Clinton did it. Obama did it. And you can bet Joe Biden will do it, too, if he gets the opportunity.

Starting point is 00:12:23 All right, that is it for the right is saying, which brings us to what the left is saying. The left is relieved that a shutdown was avoided, but concerned that the far right wing and the GOP will continue to wield influence over the government. Some give McCarthy credit for risking his job to make a deal and temporarily avoid a crisis. Others say that despite the outcome, the entire episode is a model of how not to govern. In the New York Times, David Firestone said McCarthy deserves some credit for putting his job on the line to avoid a shutdown. Mr. McCarthy may finally do the country a service by proving that bipartisanship works, effectively shutting up the brain band of right-wing extremists who have been agents of chaos since the moment the current House took office in January, Firestone wrote. Did he do it for pragmatic reasons, knowing that a shutdown would be blamed on Republicans and could hurt their chances of holding onto the House in 2024?

Starting point is 00:13:14 Or did he do it because in some deep place in his heart, a place most despised by the hardliners, he actually didn't want a shutdown? The question now is whether Mr. McCarthy's actions will cost him his job. Will the hardliners follow Mr. Gates and vote to remove him, Firestone asked? Alternatively, will a few Democrats step in to save him? Mr. McCarthy is profoundly untrustworthy, having repeatedly broken various promises to both parties. Despite being fully behind the House's laughable effort to impeach Mr. Biden, he did keep the government open, at least for a few more weeks, and he told Mr. Gates and his band where they could go. At a moment like this, that may be enough to let him keep his job. Based on Charles Yu's award-winning book, Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu,

Starting point is 00:14:00 a background character trapped in a police procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. In the Washington Post, E.J. Dionne Jr. wrote that the GOP's arsonists lost on the shutdown, but they're not going away. The Republican leader clearly understood that blame for the fiasco would have fallen on him given the failure of his earlier strategy rooted in coddling the Trumpists in his caucus. So he finally did what Democrats had long been urging him to do. He abandoned his

Starting point is 00:14:42 Republicans-only approach involving sweeping budget cuts that were still not sufficient for his most radical colleagues, Dion Jr. said. One of Winston Churchill's most cited observations is that Americans always do the right thing after exhausting all of the other possibilities. McCarthy doesn't always do the right thing, but he did so in this case, after he tried almost everything else. However, at a news conference about the spending agreement, McCarthy took a partisan line, assailing Biden and making a point of welcoming members who had opposed him back into the fold, none of which bodes well for the next 45 days, and not just because some way must be found to finance aid to Ukraine left out of the

Starting point is 00:15:20 resolution. Democrats remain angry that McCarthy broke the deal he reached with Biden earlier this year during the debt ceiling negotiations. That deal, too, was passed with more Democratic than Republican votes. McCarthy said he'd gladly face a challenge if that were the cost of being an adult in the room. That challenge could be on the way, and rescuing McCarthy will be a reach for many Democrats. In Talking Points' memo, David Kurtz said Congress averted a crisis, but its approach is still no way to govern. McCarthy's rejection of his far-right members caught everyone off guard and left Democrats flat-footed, so much so that one Democratic member pulled a fire alarm to try to buy more time for them to review the new CR before it came to a rush vote, Kurtz wrote. This continues to be a maddening and indefensible

Starting point is 00:16:05 way of governing. Damage has already been done to government departments and agencies forced to prepare for a shutdown, costing enormous time, resources, and money. Government workers have been needlessly traumatized by the prospect of extended furloughs. Time that could have been spent actually negotiating longer-term agreements on funding and policy has been wasted with legislative hostage-taking. As for McCarthy, who knows what finally tipped the scale for him to rebuff his right flank. It should be noted that there was nothing on the horizon that suggested a shift in the power dynamics that would break the fever of the House Freedom Caucus. So, once House Republicans sent us over the cliff into a shutdown, it wasn't obvious how it would ever get resolved. There was no plan. Perhaps McCarthy saw that too, Kurtz said. Needless drama, posturing in

Starting point is 00:16:51 place of governing, doing damage to institutions and norms for the sake of it. It's old hat for Republicans now. It's been tiresome for the rest of us for a long time. All right, that is it for what the left and the right are saying, which brings us to my take. So it's pretty rare that I'm surprised by an outcome in politics anymore, but this was genuinely shocking to me. Up until Saturday afternoon, there were very few signs of any outcome besides a government shutdown, and I said as much in the Tangle newsletter and interviews I did last week. McCarthy had said over and over that he would not pass any government funding bill if it didn't include spending cuts in border security. Yet he did just that, unapologetically, with the help of Democrats and in the final moments before a

Starting point is 00:17:45 shutdown. To be frank, I think this was the right move. McCarthy's detractors in the right flank of the Republican Party are using their power about as fully as they can, but at some point, shutting down the government over the demands of 10 to 15 representatives in a government body that consists of 435 members in the House and 100 in the Senate, is self-evidently stupid. As I've said over and over, I'm supportive of less centralized power in congressional leadership. Kudos to Matt Gates and his crew for how far they've gotten, but at a certain point, his caucus is getting in its own way. McCarthy always had the votes to keep the government open, and given the intractability of his right flank, and the fact they themselves don't even agree on what exactly they want, a protracted shutdown was a loser in

Starting point is 00:18:29 every way imaginable, politically, economically, operationally, and for Americans generally, and McCarthy personally. I also wrote that if all this ended in some bipartisanship in Congress, I'd be happy. I don't say that because of some wholesale position that members of Congress voting in unison is a sign of legislation we should trust. Sometimes the reverse is true. I'm just glad that Republicans and Democrats in the House can work together, which has seemed increasingly rare over the past decade. And I'm glad to see that we aren't incapable of functioning when 10 to 15 members decide they want to grind things to a halt. What comes next will be the most interesting part. While the media narrative has been uniform in this being a win for Democrats,

Starting point is 00:19:11 I'm not so sure. First, Republicans will try to remove McCarthy now, and Democrats are going to have to decide whether to save him or not. If Democrats decide to sit out and let Republicans fight, they'll win a short-term political battle, but could end up with a speaker much less open to helping them. McCarthy and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, the Democrat from New York, reportedly have a very strong relationship. If they keep his speakership alive, though, that keeps them in a bind, too. Remember, McCarthy has reneged on the spending deal he cut with Biden, he launched an impeachment inquiry into the Democratic president, and he spent Sunday blaming the potential shutdown on Democrats even after they helped him avoid a shutdown. McCarthy isn't exactly someone they can trust.

Starting point is 00:19:54 Then there are the future spending conundrums. This stopgap funding bill did not include more Ukraine funding, nor did it include anything to address the current border crisis. That means both of these things will get votes on more narrow grounds, and perhaps even together. Given funding, nor did it include anything to address the current border crisis. That means both of these things will get votes on more narrow grounds, and perhaps even together. Given Americans' increasing skepticism of backing Ukraine and the genuine concern over the migrant crisis, Democrats could face some tough votes on where to put American resources that end up being political losers for them. I'm not sure how McCarthy's future or those spending votes play out, but I'm certainly hesitant to frame this as a win for the left. For now, McCarthy survives and the government stays

Starting point is 00:20:29 open. But the immediate impact is that Democrats will face two tough votes politically, and the clock for a potential shutdown just restarted to 45 days. The future is just as uncertain as it was heading into the weekend. All right, that is it for my take, which brings us to your questions answered. This one's from Alfred in Port Jefferson Station, New York. Alfred said, I'm a new member and I like the Tangle so far. Curious, who besides you is providing Tangle's take on the issues raised? It seems you're doing this solo, and that provides just one person's point of view, literally. What if you were indisposed for a period? Who would put out the Tangle? Okay, so good question. This is actually, believe it or

Starting point is 00:21:15 not, a conversation we're having internally at Tangle right now, as our team continues to grow and our platform becomes bigger. When I first started Tangle, it was literally just me sending an email every day. So I'd write the introduction to a story, summaries of the left and the right, and then my take by myself. Now, there are a half dozen people who work on the newsletter each morning. I don't just get help with the editing process, but I have some folks on my staff owning certain sections that they make a first draft of. Of course, my take is still my take, but my colleagues help me shape and refine it. Tangle's editors don't just proofread the things I write, but also challenge my positions and thinking. That's one of my favorite parts

Starting point is 00:21:55 of our process. Like you said, the fact that so much is centered around me personally can create some issues. On the one hand, I think the personal nature of Tangle is part of why it is so appealing, so I doubt that will ever change. I like being transparent and open about my worldview, and I like giving myself some space to share my thoughts in each newsletter. On the other hand, if I'm sick, traveling, or otherwise indisposed, it puts the team in a tough spot. One idea we have for the future is changing my take to our take, which would be a more collective position, or perhaps just offering a staff's take at times when I'm unavailable. I think that'd be an interesting twist on what we're doing, but we haven't really moved that idea forward yet. All that's to say, I don't have a great answer for you, but it's something we're aware of and a solution that we're hunting for. All right, that is it for your questions answered, which brings us to our

Starting point is 00:22:48 under the radar section. California Governor Gavin Newsom signed a new law last week that will raise the minimum wage for fast food workers to $20 per hour next year. Fast food workers will now have the highest guaranteed base salary in the industry, even as the state's minimum wage for all other workers, $15.50, is among the highest in the U.S. Currently, California's fast food workers earn an average of $16.60 per hour, about $34,000 per year. In signing the bill, Newsom dismissed the idea that fast food jobs were meant for teenagers or entry-level workers, noting that many fast food workers are supporting families. The bill was the product of hundreds of hours of negotiations between fast food corporations and labor unions. The Associated

Starting point is 00:23:34 Press has the story, and there's a link in today's episode description. All right, next up is our numbers section. The number of Democrats who voted for the stopgap funding bill in the House is 209. The number of Republicans who voted for the stopgap funding bill in the House is 126. The number of Republicans who voted against the stopgap funding bill in the House is 90. And the number of Democrats who voted against the stopgap funding bill in the House was just one. The number of Democrats who voted against the stopgap funding bill in the House was just one. The number of hours remaining before a government shutdown when the Senate passed the bill on Saturday night was three, and the number of service members and federal workers whose

Starting point is 00:24:14 paychecks would have been halted if the government had shut down was four million. All right, and last but not least, our have a nice day story. Earlier this year, Ruben Flowers stumbled across an old picture in his grandmother's house, a snapshot from 1994 that showed him as a toddler sitting next to his pilot dad in an airplane flight deck. Flowers had forgotten the photo existed, but he was flooded with memories upon seeing it again, and he decided to try to recreate the moment. flooded with memories upon seeing it again, and he decided to try to recreate the moment. Flowers, now 30, was just about to begin flying as a first officer for Southwest Airlines while his father, also named Ruben Flowers, was nearing retirement with Southwest. They recreated the photo in March as the older Flowers was flying his final Southwest flight with his son by his

Starting point is 00:25:01 side as first officer. That was an awesome feeling, said the older Flowers, to look over there and see my son next to me for my last landing. CNN Travel has the story and there's a link to it in today's episode description. All right, everybody, that is it for today's podcast. As always, if you want to support our work, please go to readtangle.com and consider becoming a member. And don't forget, we've got two new fresh videos up on our YouTube channel. One about how we can fix our elections and another one about some decorum issues that are happening in Congress right now. And me taking a stance in favor of dress codes. So go check that out. Give that channel a subscribe and like.

Starting point is 00:25:42 Let us know what you think. We'll be right back here same time tomorrow. Have a good one. Peace. Our podcast is written by me, Isaac Saul, and edited by John Law. Our script is edited by Ari Weitzman, Bailey Saul, and Sean Brady. The logo for our podcast was designed by Magdalena Bukova, who's also our social media manager. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet 75. For more on Tangle, please go to readtangle.com and check out our website. We'll be right back. a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to

Starting point is 00:26:45 unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+.

Tangle - The government... doesn't shut down?

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