Tangle - The impact of Joe Manchin retiring.

Episode Date: November 13, 2023

Joe Manchin. On Thursday, Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) announced he would not seek re-election in 2024, a decision that will reshape the fight for the Senate in 2024 and has set off rumors Manchin is considering an independent run for president.You can read today's podcast ⁠⁠here⁠⁠, our “Under the Radar” story here, and today’s “Have a nice day” story here. You can also check out the controversial debate we posted on YouTube here, and a sizzle reel of our first ever Tangle Live event from August 2023, here.Today’s clickables: In case you missed it (0:50), Quick hits (1:49), Today’s story (4:00), Right’s take (6:20), Left’s take (9:56), Isaac’s take (13:58), Listener question (17:39), Under the Radar (21:22), Numbers (21:59), Have a nice day (22:55)You can subscribe to Tangle by clicking here or drop something in our tip jar by clicking here. Take the poll. What do you think of Joe Manchin's legacy in the Senate? Let us know!Our podcast is written by Isaac Saul and edited and engineered by Jon Lall. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet 75. Our newsletter is edited by Managing Editor Ari Weitzman, Will Kaback, Bailey Saul, Sean Brady, and produced in conjunction with Tangle’s social media manager Magdalena Bokowa, who also created our logo.--- Send in a voice message: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/tanglenews/message Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Based on Charles Yu's award-winning book, Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu, a background character trapped in a police procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. The flu remains a serious disease. Last season, over 102,000 influenza cases have been reported across Canada, which is Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. yourself from the flu. It's the first cell-based flu vaccine authorized in Canada for ages six months and older, and it may be available for free in your province. Side effects and allergic reactions can occur, and 100% protection is not guaranteed. Learn more at flucellvax.ca.

From executive producer Isaac Saul, this is Tangle. Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening, and welcome to the Tangle podcast, the place we get views from across the political spectrum, some independent thinking, and a little bit of my take. I'm your host, Isaac Saul, and today is Monday, November 13th. We're going to be talking about Senator Joe Manchin, the Democrat from West Virginia who has decided not to run for re-election in 2024 and sparked some rumors about a potential presidential run. We're going to break down what we know, what it means for the Senate race in 2024 and all that good stuff. Before we jump in, a quick heads up on Friday, in case you missed it, we released a interview on YouTube and our podcast between Dan Cohen and Hussein Abu Bakr Mansour about the happenings in Israel and Palestine. It was a controversial interview for a lot of reasons.

I've been reading through some of the comments on YouTube from folks. And yeah, I would say mixed reviews decidedly about the helpfulness of the interview and also who people felt like was the honest participant in the interview, which I thought was interesting. So I encourage you to go check it out. We published it because it was, I thought, illuminating about how two people could frame the same event in such a different way. And I hope it added something to the discourse, but for some people, maybe it didn't. So with that out of the way, we're going to kick it off with some quick hits. quick hits. First up, Senator Tim Scott, the Republican from South Carolina, has suspended his presidential campaign, he told Fox News' Trey Gowdy on Sunday night. Separately, progressive Jill Stein announced she is running for president again on the Green Party ticket. Number two, the Israeli Defense Force and Hamas are fighting near two major hospitals in

Gaza. Both hospitals have lost power and stopped accepting new patients. Israel says Hamas has used the hospitals as command centers. Number three, the FBI seized and searched the phones of New York City Mayor Eric Adams, escalating an investigation into whether his 2021 campaign conspired with the Turkish government to accept foreign donations. Number four, five U.S. service members were killed when a military helicopter crashed over the Mediterranean Sea during a routine refueling mission, U.S. officials said. And number five, a high-ranking Ukrainian military officer named Roman Chavrinsky allegedly played a central role in the September 2022 Nord Stream pipeline sabotage.

That's according to new reports from several media outlets like The Washington Post. We are following some breaking news right now. West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin has announced he is not running for reelection. That's right. Manchin calls this the hardest decision he's ever had to make. He says he will continue to fight for the middle. It's rare for a Democrat to be elected for a statewide office in West Virginia. And Manchin, as a sort of centrist Democrat, has been a key vote on major legislation since he was elected to the upper chamber back in 2010. After months of deliberation and long conversation with my family, I believe in my heart of hearts that I have accomplished what I set out to do for West Virginia.

I've made one of the toughest decisions of my life and decided that I will not be running for reelection to United States Senate. and decided that I will not be running for reelection to the United States Senate. But what I will be doing is traveling the country and speaking out to see if there is an interest in creating a movement to mobilize the middle and bring Americans together. On Thursday, Senator Joe Manchin, the Democrat from West Virginia, announced he would not seek reelection in 2024, a decision that will reshape the fight for the Senate in 2024 and has set off rumors Manchin is considering an independent run for president. Manchin, 76, announced his decision on X, formerly known as Twitter. He was re-elected in 2018 despite West Virginia voting for former President Donald Trump by a 39-point margin in 2020. Democrats who have a 51-49 majority in the

Senate were already facing an uphill battle in getting Manchin re-elected against Republican Governor Jim Justice, who had been polling ahead of him. The decision has major implications for control of the Senate in 2024, in which Republicans already enjoy a favorable map. Manchin is a moderate Democrat who often bucked the Democratic Party line, regularly pushing the administration to water down spending bills or abandon more progressive ideas. But he was also a reliable Democratic vote and helped Biden pass his signature achievement, the $740 billion Inflation Reduction Act. Replacing Manchin on the ballot will be difficult. He is one of the few Democratic candidates who could earn support in West Virginia and was the strongest Senate candidate Democrats have put forward in the last three election cycles, according to the political analysis website Split Ticket, which said he

performed 31 points better than a generic Democrat. Worsening the situation for Democrats was that Manchin's announcement immediately sparked rumors he may run for president as an independent. In his announcement, he said he was frustrated with the two major political parties and would be touring the country to hear from voters. He has also left open the possibility he'd run for president with no labels, a nonpartisan effort to push a centrist candidate to challenge Biden and Trump. I believe in my heart of hearts that I have accomplished what I set out to do for West Virginia, he said in a statement. I've made one of the toughest decisions of my life and decided that I will not be running for re-election to the United States Senate, but what I will be doing is traveling the country and

speaking out to see if there is an interest in creating a movement to mobilize the middle and bring Americans together. Today, we're going to take a look at some reactions to the news from the left and the right, and then my take. We'll be right back after this quick commercial break. First up, we'll start with what the right is saying. The right sees Manchin as a viable third-party candidate who could pose a threat to both Biden and Trump. Some say Manchin's politics are well-suited to appeal to moderate voters from both parties. Others criticize Manchin for his support of Biden's agenda and suggest it doomed his standing with West Virginians. The Wall Street Journal editorial board said Manchin may have a third-party opening because Biden and Trump are so unpopular. It's revealing that Democrats are fretting even though Mr. Manchin

is a long way from running and no label hasn't decided whether it will even field a ticket, the board said. Democrats have only themselves to blame for this anxiety attack. They can, like everyone else, see the polls that show Mr. Biden's approval rating even lower than Mr. Trump's. That is some achievement. Why worry about Manchin? If the country will eventually come to see the heroic benefits of Bidenomics, then the appeal of a third-party candidate will fade as the election nears. The problem is that Democrats really don't believe their own political advertising. The chances are increasing that voters have reached a firm conclusion about Mr. Biden's capacities and record, and they are looking for an alternative. Many of those voters find Mr. Trump unacceptable,

and so Mr. Manchin might be a safe harbor. In Spectator, Ben Dominick wrote that Joe Manchin has every reason to run for president. Manchin has a real shot at being more than a protest vote. For the last true independent-minded moderate in the Democratic Party, it should be an easy choice. He has every reason to run, Dominic said. Americans want someone else, even to the degree of entertaining the possibility of Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who has never been elected to anything just because he is a good podcast guest with different ideas. But RFK has limited resources and is anathema to the mainstream media, while Manchin has spent years proving his capability on that stage.

The typical reasons that prevent politicians from running on a third-party line simply don't apply to Manchin. Rather than have to go through the heavy task of gaining ballot access, he has the well-funded no-labels effort waiting eagerly for him. There's already an awareness that a significant amount of center-right donor money stands ready to flow to a candidate who won't spend it paying for all their lawyers. And he doesn't have to worry about his political future. Since he is truly at the end of his political career, if he loses, he can just go write the book he would have written anyway. In the Washington Examiner, Zachary Perea argued that Manchin's decision not to seek re-election is a direct result of both his failures and the failures of the Democratic Party. Manchin's vote for the

Inflation Reduction Act caused his approval numbers in West Virginia to crater. After narrowly surviving a tough re-election challenge in 2018, Manchin was likely going to lose next year. He had finally tanked his reputation among West Virginia voters, and the inevitable loss he was facing almost certainly played into his decision to forego another re-election race, Faria wrote. That is how Manchin's failures determine his fate, but the Democratic Party's failures may determine what Manchin does next. The Democratic Party's rapid left-wing lurch has left Manchin and voters across the country behind. Manchin knows this and has known it for years, Faria added. Whatever Manchin ends up doing, it is clear that he and the Democratic Party put him

in this position. As a result, Republicans will almost certainly pick up a Senate seat, Democrats will sincerely have to wrestle with the concept of a centrist Democrat running an independent campaign and siphoning votes off of their unpopular liberal candidate, and Manchin's political career probably ends either way. All right, that is it for what the right is saying, which brings us to what the left is saying. The left is appreciative of Manchin for his support of key Democratic bills over the years, but think he'd tarnish his legacy by running as a third-party candidate. Some argue that losing Manchin will have a negative impact on addressing climate change.

Others make the case that a Manchin third-party run would help Biden and hurt Trump. In Bloomberg, Jonathan Bernstein wrote Democrats can't blame Joe Manchin anymore. Manchin's decision means the end of years of liberal Democrats blaming him for nearly everything that goes wrong. They're going to miss him when he's replaced by a Republican in 2025, worsening Democrats' odds of maintaining their slim Senate majority, Bernstein said. During the first two years of Biden's presidency, Manchin was the swing vote on several key pieces of legislation, and he relished his role as the make-or-break player.

He also stuck with the party in the final votes for Biden's pandemic recovery bill. Those bills, along with the bipartisan infrastructure bill that Manchin helped draft, have been Democrats' biggest legislative accomplishments during Biden's presidency. Manchin also helped the party in more subtle ways. By loudly and repeatedly setting himself up as the party's center, he created room for others from the Republican-leaning states, such as Montana Senator John Tester, to vote for Democratic bills without seeming liberal. It's also worth noting that while Manchin could be difficult for Democrats to deal with, he stuck with them when Republicans held Senate majorities and the presidency. For example, when Republican John McCain was the famous deciding vote against repealing the Affordable Care Act,

Manchin was with the 47 other Democrats who opposed the bill. He's really best thought of as a moderate liberal rather than a conservative Democrat. In Grist, Katie Myers said Manchin wasn't always a climate ally, but his successor will be worse. During the 13 years the Democrat represented the people of West Virginia in the upper chamber, he proved to be an essential supporter of climate legislation, even as he stood in the way of climate legislation. He had no qualms about withholding votes on key legislation like the Build Back Better Act or demanding concessions, often in support of fossil fuels, to support party priorities like the landmark Inflation Reduction Act passed in 2022. In a closely divided Senate,

his ability to stymie President Joe Biden's agenda made him a fickle ally in the climate fight, but an ally just the same. Since arriving in Washington in 2010, he has rejected efforts to cap carbon emissions, opposed the Clean Power Plan, and supported building a petrochemical hub in the Ohio River Valley. He also voted with President Donald Trump about 50% of the time. But Manchin, being Manchin, also endorsed wind energy in his home state, came out against mountaintop removal coal mining, and worked with the United Mine Workers Association to help protect miners from black lung disease, Meyer said. However, as Democrats will grit their teeth and admit, what climate legislation did pass during Biden's presidency did so largely because of Manchin's support.

Based on Charles Yu's award-winning book, Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu, a background character trapped in a police procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th,

only on Disney+. The flu remains a serious disease. Last season, over 102,000 influenza cases have been reported across Canada, which is nearly double the historic average of 52,000 cases. What can you do this flu season? Talk to your pharmacist or doctor about getting a flu shot.

Consider FluCellVax Quad and help protect yourself from the flu. It's the first cell-based flu vaccine authorized in Canada for ages six months and older, and it may be available for free in your province. Side effects and allergic reactions can occur, and 100% protection is not guaranteed. Learn more at FluCellVax.ca. occur and 100% protection is not guaranteed. Learn more at flucellvax.ca. In The New Republic, Michael Tomaschi explored how a Joe Manchin candidacy helps Biden. The conventional wisdom for months, or even for a couple years, has been that a presidential candidacy by the West Virginia senator under the centrist No Labels banner would mean the end for

Joe Biden, Tomaschi wrote. But lately, even before this announcement, I've begun to wonder, what if Manchin is more likely to split the anti-Biden vote? Even if Manchin does run, it is no longer manifestly obvious that he hurts Biden more than he hurts Trump. Manchin is basically against abortion rights, and the 2024 election is going to be as direct a nationwide referendum on women's reproductive rights as we've ever had in this country, Tomaski said. Manchin is also just not that popular, and to the extent that he is popular, he is more popular among Republicans than Democrats. If we agree that somewhere around 55% of Republicans are MAGA and 45% are not, which seems fair based on polls, that tells me that there are at least potentially more, far more disaffected Republicans who might poll for Manchin.

All right, that is it for what the left and the right are saying, which brings us to my take. So I think Democrats are really going to miss him. Over the years, Manchin has become a target of many progressive activists, often framed as the reason certain bills or legislative ideas couldn't pass the Senate. But the truth is that Democrats have been lucky to have Manchin at all. No other high-profile Democrat that I can think of in the country could have held onto a seat in West Virginia as long as he did, and it was always a gift for Democrats that Manchin was there caucusing with them, both when they had a 50-50 Senate split and more recently with their one-seat

majority. It's also worth being clear that the writing was on the wall, and Manchin's party was coming to an end. He isn't stepping down out of principle, or because he is going to immediately jump into a presidential campaign, or because he was treated badly by Democrats. He's stepping down because he was going to lose his Senate race, and running for Senate is expensive and exhausting even when you think you can win. All of that is unfortunate. I disagree with Manchin on plenty, but he was a senator who actually understood the power of respectful negotiation, and he was key in shaping several major pieces of legislation. He was, at his heart, an actual legislator, not a Twitter performer who did more talking than actual work.

In his announcement, he rightly pointed out that everyone in Washington, D.C. is being pushed into more and more partisan corners, and that there aren't many people left who are interested in compromising and working together. With his exit, there will be one fewer. As for rumors about a third-party run, I just wouldn't bet on it. In 2021, I predicted that a third-party candidate would win a higher percentage of the vote in 2024 than any third-party candidate has since Ross Perot. I still think that prediction has a good chance of coming true, and I actually think Manchin would be one of the strongest candidates to make it happen. But it is very late, and once again, running a presidential campaign is expensive and exhausting. Despite being a true legislator, this 76-year-old Manchin

is not a great fundraiser, and he isn't nearly the politician to pull off such a monumental victory. Manchin is also realistic, which means he knows all of that. It also means he'd be running solely to make a point that a big chunk of the country wants a third-party candidate, which would come with the risk of undermining Biden and helping Trump get elected again. Given Manchin's respect for Biden and his loyalty to the Democratic Party, I'm very, very skeptical he would take that risk. Whether he jumps in or not, though, the biggest impact of this decision is what it just did to the Senate map. Democrats are defending 23 Senate seats in the 2024 election, including three held by Democrat caucusing independents like Angus King, Kyrsten Sinema, and Bernie Sanders. West

Virginia is now safely going Republican, which puts the upper chamber at a 50-50 split before voting even starts. The other states where Democrats are on defense include red states like Montana and Ohio and swing states like Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Republicans are only defending 10 seats, and just two, Florida and Utah, are remotely close to potential pickups for Democrats. That means if they want to hold on to a 50-50 Senate split, they need to either successfully win every single one of those Senate races, Montana, Ohio, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, or they can afford to lose one or two if they can pull off an upset in Florida or Texas. Despite the success Democrats have had since 2016, none of those outcomes seems remotely likely to me. I would have been surprised if Democrats

held the Senate before Manchin stepped down. I'd be shocked if they can do it now. We'll be right back after this quick break. All right, that is it for my take, which brings us to our reader question today. This one is from an anonymous reader in Yorkshire, England, who said, I'd like to know to what extent you or your readers think it may be understandable to be concerned that so few Jewish celebrities or Jewish public figures ever seem to speak out against Israel's treatment of Palestinians over the last few decades, let's say. By extension, could it be reasonable to wonder if the reason we rarely hear such comments is because a high proportion of Jewish celebrities or public figures on this one issue are prejudiced,

perhaps without realizing it? Obviously, it's okay for any one person to remain silent on any big political issue, but when the overwhelming majority of single demographics in the public eye stay silent on such a politically charged issue, is that not itself evidence that a public opinion within those communities is on balance, both pro-Jewish and anti-Palestinian? All right, so I appreciate the vulnerability required to ask this question. I am assuming there are people who might interpret even asking this as being anti-Semitic, which maybe is why you asked this anonymously, but I think it's a genuine question that's coming from a place of real curiosity. I also fundamentally

disagree with the premise. I do think there is a public perception of Jewish celebrities being not just pro-Israeli, but anti-Hamas to an extent that it could be seen, at the least, ambivalent to Palestinian well-being, if not anti-Palestinian altogether. We can call that the Gal Gadot camp. However, I think it's just as true that there are a significant number of Jewish celebrities who are very pro-Palestinian, as well as critical of both Israel and Hamas. We can call that the Jon Stewart camp. Then there are plenty of people like Natalie Portman, whose sympathies are with Jews and Israel, but whose positions on the Israeli government are much more nuanced. When I wrote about Kanye West's anti-Semitic rants last year, I mentioned this old joke, two Jews, three opinions. One of the things that most Jews can agree on is that we spend much of

our time quibbling amongst ourselves about the mundane and the serious. That is the Jewish spirit. The issue of Israel is no different. American Jews are deeply divided on Israel. In 2021, just 40% of American Jews had a favorable view of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. 58% said they feel very or somewhat attached to Israel. Only 33% thought Israel was making sincere efforts toward peace. And though I haven't seen any recent polling on this issue, I'd bet that a majority of American Jews are deeply critical of Israel's treatment of Palestinians. The issue of Israel for Jews is like most contemporary political issues, much more complicated, divided, and nuanced than

a two-sided polarized debate. And I'll be honest, as a Jew, it is extremely uncomfortable to be pulled in the tug-of-war of these political extremes. It sucks to have to say, no, actually, from the river to the sea is an anti-Semitic slogan, while insisting that I'm not defending the IDF's unconscionable tolerance of civilian deaths. It also sucks to watch people deny the existence of Islamophobia in supposed defense against anti-Semitism, as Ron DeSantis did in last week's Republican debate. And in a polarizing landscape that interprets any statement of support as also meaning opposition, Jewish celebrities can't win. The ones who take some ardently pro-Israel stance are immediately accused of supporting genocide. The ones who take an ardently pro-Palestine stance are called self-hating Jews. The ones

who try to say something nuanced are accused of dodging a real position. So, to answer your question plainly, I don't think there is actually much evidence for the premise of your question, that Jewish celebrities aren't critical of Israel and don't speak out about it. Of course, Jews are on net biased toward Israel, but I definitely don't think they're generally quote-unquote anti-Palestinian. All right, that is it for today's reader question, which brings us to our under the radar section. The United States is now quietly pumping oil at a record rate, driving crude oil prices lower, even as Russia and Saudi Arabia cut production to pump up prices, Axios reported. In the last week of October, the U.S. crude oil production was 13.2 million barrels per day,

a new record. Meanwhile, the U.S. benchmark is down 15% since the end of September as global demand slumps, especially in China. Axios has the story, and there's a link to it in today's episode description. All right, next up is the numbers section. The percentage of Americans who say they have not even heard of Joe Manchin is 45%, according to an October 2023 survey from the Public Religion Research Institute. The percentage of Americans who say they view Manchin favorably is 12%. The percentage of Democrats who say they view Manchin favorably is 7%. The percentage of Republicans who say they view Manchin favorably

is 18%. According to an October 2023 poll of the state's voters, Governor Jim Justice's lead over Manchin in the race for West Virginia's Senate seat was 41% to 28%. The number of Senate seats up for election in 2024, including a special election in Nebraska, is now 34. The number of those seats that are held by Democrats or independents is 23. 34. The number of those seats that are held by Democrats or independents is 23. The number of states in which no labels is gained ballot access for the 2024 election is 12. All right, and last but not least, our have a nice day section. When Anna Karen Elf walked past her workplace at the city library in Gothenburg, Sweden last week, she noticed something strange.

The people in the library behaved as usual. Many were sitting reading newspapers, some families were in the children's section, and others were searching for books on the computer, Elf said. What was unusual was that the library was supposed to be closed. Through a door mistakenly left the jar, the people of Gothenburg entered the library, and once inside, they proceeded to act no differently than if they had been supervised. After Elf announced to the guests that the library would be closing, they cooperatively left, and some left with books. During that day, 446 people visited the city library. A total of 246 books were borrowed. To date, all the books have been returned. The city library published a loving post praising the city of Gothenburg for demonstrating the power of community and the value they place on the guardianship of shared resources. ZME Science has the story, and there's a link in today's episode description.

All right, everybody, that is it for today's podcast. As always, if you want to support our work, please go to readtangle.com and consider becoming a subscriber. Don't forget to go check out our YouTube channel. We've got a controversial new interview up there. We'll be right back here same time tomorrow. Have a good one. Peace. Our podcast is written by me, Isaac Saul, and edited and engineered by John Wall. Peace. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet 75. If you're looking for more from Tangle, please go to readtangle.com and check out our website. Thanks for watching. history and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. The flu remains a serious disease. Last season, over 102,000 influenza cases have been reported across Canada, which is nearly double the historic average of 52,000 cases. What can you do this flu season? Talk to your pharmacist or doctor about getting a flu shot. Consider FluCellVax Quad and help protect yourself from

the flu. It's the first cell-based flu vaccine authorized in Canada for ages six months and older, and it may be available for free in your province. Side effects and allergic reactions can occur, and 100% protection is not guaranteed. Learn more at FluCellVax.ca.