Tangle - The midterm results (and what they mean).

Episode Date: May 19, 2022

Primaries took place in Idaho, Kentucky, North Carolina, Oregon, and Pennsylvania. To narrow our focus a bit, we are going to center our coverage on Pennsylvania and North Carolina, two battleground states that will be key to who wins the House and Senate in 2022 and the White House in 2024.You can read today's podcast here.You can subscribe to Tangle by clicking here or drop something in our tip jar by clicking here.Our podcast is written by Isaac Saul and produced by Trevor Eichhorn. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet 75. Today’s episode was edited by Zosha Warpeha.Our newsletter is edited by Bailey Saul, Sean Brady, Ari Weitzman, and produced in conjunction with Tangle’s social media manager Magdalena Bokowa, who also created our logo.--- Send in a voice message: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/tanglenews/message Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

From executive producer Isaac Saul, this is Tangle. Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening, and welcome to the Tangle podcast, the place where you get views from across the political spectrum, some independent thinking, not all that hysterical nonsense you find everywhere else. I am your host, Isaac Saul, and on today's episode, we are going to be talking about the midterm elections, some of the results from Tuesday and yesterday, some of the results we don't have yet from Tuesday's election, and what it all means, what people are saying about it. As always, though, before we jump in, we're going to start off with some quick hits. First up, President Biden invoked the Defense Production Act to ramp up baby formula supply

and begin importing it from overseas. The House also passed an emergency $28 million bill to fund the FDA to address the shortage. Number two, the Department of Homeland Security is suspending plans to establish a so-called disinformation governance board after a wave of criticism. Number three, the U.S. embassy in Kyiv officially reopened. Separately, Congress confirmed Bridget Brink to serve as U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, the first Senate-confirmed ambassador in Ukraine in three years. Number four, some 76% of patients experiencing long COVID had not been hospitalized for their initial infection, a new study has found. Number five, all three major U.S. stock

indexes fell 3-5% yesterday, extending major losses from this month. Across the nation, voters have been heading to the polls in five states, including Pennsylvania. Voters on Tuesday cast ballots in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Oregon, Idaho, and Kentucky. The closely watched GOP Senate race in Pennsylvania is still too close to call. The busiest primary day so far of the 2022 midterm elections, there were mixed results for Republican candidates endorsed by former President Donald Trump. And for Democrats, several races provided the first true test of what the party's message will be with Trump no longer at the top of the ticket.

Primaries took place on Tuesday in Idaho, Kentucky, North Carolina, Oregon, and Pennsylvania. To narrow our focus a bit, we are going to be centering our coverage on Pennsylvania and North Carolina, two battleground states that will be key to who wins the House and Senate in 2022 and the White House in 2024. Pennsylvania's most-watched race, the Republican Senate primary, is still undecided. As of Thursday morning, Trump-endorsed Dr. Mehmet Oz had a slight edge over David McCormick, a political neophyte best known for his work as a hedge fund manager. The race is close enough that it could trigger a recount, and McCormick is still within striking distance of victory as they tally mail-in ballots. With over 1 million ballots counted on Wednesday, Oz's lead was just over 500 votes. This morning,

he has extended that lead to a little more than 1,000 votes. Kathy Barnett, a controversial candidate who rocketed up in the polls toward the end of the race, finished well behind both candidates in voting. On the Democratic side, Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman easily defeated Conor Lamb. Fetterman has run as an anti-establishment candidate who harshly criticized Senator Joe Manchin, the Democrat from West Virginia, and promised to unite progressives in rural Pennsylvania. Fetterman won the race from a hospital in Lancaster, Pennsylvania, where he was recovering from a stroke he suffered just four days before the primary. His campaign says he underwent surgery to get a pacemaker this week. In the governor's race, state Senator Doug Mastriano prevailed for Republicans.

Mastriano was endorsed by Donald Trump and has gotten a lot of attention for saying he would have refused to certify Joe Biden's election victory in 2020. Heading into 2024, he has said he would reset the state's voter rolls, forcing people to re-register. As governor, he would have sweeping election power, including the ability to nominate a secretary of state to oversee elections. Mastriana's candidacy, which was heavy on Christian nationalism, a false belief in a stolen election, and criticism of COVID-19 mitigation measures, drew concern in some Republican circles that he is too far right to prevail in a general election in Pennsylvania. In North Carolina, Representative Madison Cawthorn lost his primary race to Chuck

Edwards, a three-term state senator and business owner. Cawthorn, one of the youngest members of Congress, had been immersed in numerous controversies over the last two years, but still scored an endorsement from Trump and had been leading in polls heading into the election. In the North Carolina Senate race, Representative Ted Budd easily prevailed in the Republican primary. Budd was also endorsed by Trump and was one of 139 House members who objected to the certification of the 2020 election. He will face off with former State Supreme Court Chief Justice Cherry Beasley in the general election. Beasley became the first Black woman to ever be nominated for the Senate in North Carolina. A few other notes, Representative Mike Simpson, the Republican from Idaho, and Representative Brian Fitzpatrick, the Republican from Pennsylvania,

both regular critics of Trump, easily defeated challenges from pro-Trump candidates. In Idaho, Governor Brad Little defeated Trump-endorsed Lieutenant Governor Janice McGeechan, and progressive Democrats across the country are celebrating a series of high-profile wins over more establishment candidates and in control of some high-profile races in Oregon. You can find all of our previous coverage of the 2022 midterms with a link in today's newsletter if you're interested. In a moment, you're going to hear some reactions to these results from the right and the left, and then my take. First up, we'll start with what the right is saying. The right says Trump is still in control of the party. Some argue that the election is proof Trumpism is alive and well, which is a good thing, and others warn about the risk of candidates who are still talking about the 2020 election being

stolen. In Fox News, David Bossie said Pennsylvania is proof Republicans still want America first. In North Carolina's primary election for U.S. Senate, conservative Congressman Ted Budd fit the bill perfectly, Bossy wrote. President Trump endorsed Budd early on, and it paid off in spectacular fashion. In fact, Trump's stamp of approval paved the way for Congressman Budd to win a once unthinkable 59% of the vote in a crowded and competitive field of candidates that included a popular former governor. The liberal media will work hard to sweep the implications of Budd's massive haul under the rug, but what it means is unmistakable. President Trump remains very strong in the critically important battleground state of

North Carolina. The results in Pennsylvania's U.S. Senate primary race are still close to call at this hour. However, Trump-endorsed candidate Dr. Mehmet Oz has the lead, he said. The race appears headed to a recount, but anyone who follows tight elections knows Oz's current vote lead will be very difficult, if not impossible, to overcome. The top three finishers, Oz, Dave McCormick, and Kathy Barnett, are all conservative political outsiders in the Trumpian tradition, all campaign for President Trump's endorsement and strongly support his America First agenda. In the gubernatorial election, President Trump's endorsement propelled conservative state senator Doug Mastriano to victory. Before Trump threw his support behind Mastriano, he was polling in the 20s. But on election night, with Trump in his corner, he received a whopping 44% of the vote in a very crowded field. Those numbers are an exclamation point that can't be ignored. Eric Woods said that Trumpism lives on, and that's a good thing.

The left vilifies Trumpism as the racist ideological offshoot from Donald Trump, Erickson wrote. It's not. It's actually a reconnection with the middle class and workers. Ironically, a man whose name is on top of skyscrapers has been more in tune with the working class in this country than the elite, who've tried to replace American democracy with technocracy. Our bureaucrats, the wealthy and the left, have enriched themselves while screaming about taxing the rich. BlackRock is advancing its ESG initiatives, pushing companies left while buying up housing, forcing Americans into permanent tenement settlements. Hollywood and the teacher unions are more interested in teaching our kindergartens how to have sex than how to read. Sure, it is not perfect, he said, but some of the people in the movement have noxious ideas. But those people are not the

movement, despite what some say. At its heart, Trumpism is about correcting the imbalance between an American elite and cultural tastemakers and the American worker who has chosen not to live in urban, mostly coastal America where those elite and cultural tastemakers dwell the American worker who has chosen not to live in urban, mostly coastal America where those elite and cultural tastemakers dwell. It is not, then, surprising that President Trump's endorsements are mostly falling flat at state levels. He came late to the party in Pennsylvania with Mastriano, and Mastriano's November loss will be hung around Trump's neck by his opponents. Trump has lost his gubernatorial picks in Idaho and Nebraska, and will shortly lose a whole slate in Georgia. But at the federal level, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and more are showing the American people continue to be fed up with the progressive left media,

and even Republican elite who think one-size-fits-all cultural garbage should be imposed on the American people. The Wall Street Journal editorial board said Democrats got their man in the Pennsylvania governor's race. Wall Street Journal editorial board said Democrats got their man in the Pennsylvania governor's race. Mr. Mastriano is the candidate Democrats want to run against in November, and they ran ads essentially telling Trump voters he was their man, the board said. This should be a good GOP year everywhere, and certainly in Pennsylvania after two terms of Democratic Governor Tom Wolf. Yet Mastriano has an uphill battle against Democratic nominee Josh Shapiro, the state attorney general. Last month, Mr. Mastriano addressed a uphill battle against Democratic nominee Josh Shapiro, the state attorney general. Last month, Mr. Mastriano addressed the Patriots Arise rally, where other speakers lamented child satanic trafficking and other QAnon nonsense. He sponsored a bill to ban abortion after about six

weeks and said at a recent debate that I don't give way for exceptions either. He wants to rip up contracts with compromised voting machine companies while doing a reset of the voter rolls, quote, you're going to have to re-register, end quote. If Republicans lose this election, it's their own fault and a warning about chasing 2020 ghosts instead of focusing on the future. In the Pennsylvania Senate race, Democrats nominated Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman, a progressive in the mold of Bernie Sanders. He backs Medicare for All, says weed should be legal nationwide, and believes the the mold of Bernie Sanders. He backs Medicare for All, says weed should be legal nationwide, and believes the union way of life is sacred. The fact that he wiped the floor with Representative Conor Lamb, a young Marine veteran centrist who was hailed as a rising

star until two minutes ago, shows the primary voters in both parties want political pugilists who will pick ideological fights. Alright, that is it for what the right is saying, which brings us to what the left is saying. The left warns that Trump and Doris candidates are a threat to democracy. They argue that the party has been wholly taken over by Trump's ideology now. Some analyze the potential progressive gains from Tuesday's elections. Greg Sargent said to say it

clearly, Republicans just nominated a pro-Trump insurrectionist. For the love of democracy, please stop using the phrase election denier, he wrote. These phrases create the impression that Mastriano is merely delusional in some backward-looking sense. The suggestion is that he's obsessing over already settled matters that won't be reopened, or that he actually believes the election was stolen and can't let go of that myth out of personal loyalty to Trump. The situation is far worse than this. Mascherano may be delusional or given to conspiracy theorizing, but this is largely beside the point. What's important is that Mascherano is making a statement about his forward-looking intentions as governor.

Mascherano is running on what is functionally an open vow to use the power of the governor's office to nullify future election losses, even if they are procedurally legitimate, and even if he knows this to be the case. This becomes unavoidable once you look closely at Mascherano's own conduct, and his Christian nationalist sympathies underscore the point, Sargent said. As governor, Mascherano would likely handpick a secretary of state who would resist certifying a razor-thin legitimate Democratic victory, and Mascherano would likely try to certify sham electors for Trump or another GOP candidate. The 2024 election in Pennsylvania might not be close.

Either the Republican or Democrat might win easily. Alternatively, such an effort by Masciano might fail. But let's be clear, he's telegraphing a willingness to attempt such a thing and that he'd likely see it as a righteous act as well, even if there's little actual voter fraud, even if he knows this. In The Atlantic, Ronald Brownstein said, Whatever happens to Trump's personal influence, Trumpism is consolidating its dominance of the GOP. The former president's scorecard on Tuesday was mixed, Brownstein wrote. Candidates he endorsed won the GOP nominations for governor in Pennsylvania and Senate in North Carolina, while his preferred choice for Idaho governor failed to topple the incumbent,

and his late intervention could not save troubled young Representative Madison Cawthorn in North Carolina. The Pennsylvania Republican Senate primary remains too close to call between the celebrity Dr. Mehmet Oz, Trump's candidate, and David McCormick, whom Trump has criticized. Yet more revealing than what happened to the candidates Trump endorsed was how many candidates endorsed him. As in Republican primaries earlier this year, no top-tier contenders in any of Tuesday's races ran on repudiating the bruising economic and racial nationalism that Trump has solidified as the GOP's dominant ideology. In several contests, particularly the Pennsylvania Senate race, all of the leading candidates sought to define themselves

as the most committed to Trump's MAGA agenda, even McCormick, an Army veteran and former hedge fund CEO. And almost all of the leading candidates echoed to varying degrees the former president's discredited claims that he lost the 2020 election only because of widespread fraud. Perry Beacon Jr. wrote about what he saw on the Democratic side. On Tuesday, there were four U.S. House primaries where the left wing and the center left competed hard. Two in North Carolina, one in Pennsylvania, and one in Oregon. Each side appears to have won two races. Center left back Valerie Foushee and Don Davis won the primaries in North Carolina. Meanwhile, it appears that likely progressive back Summer Lee in Pennsylvania and Jamie McLeod Skinner in Oregon will win their primaries, though these races have not been called yet. Center left-back Representative Conor Lamb lost

the Democratic Senate primary race in Pennsylvania, but the winner, Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman, is not firmly in the party's left wing. For progressives, any victory in a competitive primary is a major achievement. Progressive candidates are usually opposed by wealthy donors, business groups, and incumbent Democratic politicians, he said. Tuesday's results leave both sides in an interesting position. The left has heavily invested in this primary strategy, trying to boost the broader progressive cause by getting charismatic, very liberal figures elected in races for city council, mayor, prosecutor, state legislative, and the U.S. House in heavily Democratic-leaning areas. It's hard to say that strategy isn't getting results. Lee is likely to be a squad-like member of the House. A victory of MacLeod Skinner over Schrader would suggest that the progressive

wing can defeat incumbents who break with the party orthodoxy too much, potentially keeping more conservative Democrats in line in the future. Alright, that is it for what the right and the left are saying, which brings us to my take. So far, this is pretty much what I expected. I think Ronald Brownstone gets to the crux of this issue when he points out that regardless of how Trump's endorsements fare, one thing's pretty clear. The folks winning are endorsing Trump. His economic agenda, his social stances, his denial of the 2020 election results, it's all there. You can say what you want about his record and endorsements, but he has redefined the Republican Party and the races that we've seen so far. To make an analogy, I'd say

Trump is more like the stage manager than he is the director. He isn't successfully telling candidates or voters what to do, but he is building the set that the show will be performed on. Dr. Oz's candidacy is perhaps the best illustration of all of this. On the ground and online, Trump's endorsement of Oz was extremely controversial in conservative circles. Trump saw a TV celebrity in his own making who would win over voters and was ready to get on board with America first, despite a convoluted political history. Many in the conservative movement saw a fake Republican who had spent decades chumming up with Democrats and didn't have legitimate conservative bona fides. The endorsement drew out criticisms of Trump even from his most ardent supporters. The result is a razor-thin finish where nobody on either side is going to be happy,

and Oz, if he holds on, will have to face a Bernie Sanders-esque Democrat who coalesced support and is going to try to speak to many Republican voters. While Oz's race was the most closely watched, it's hard to argue that there is a bigger story than Mastriano's victory. As always, I pledge in this newsletter and podcast to shoot straight, to tell you what I'm really thinking. So, here it is. Mastriano's candidacy is bonkers. It should be the biggest story in US politics today. I share both the frustration many on the left have about his win and the fear many on the right have about what this means for the conservative movement. Ross Dutat, one of my favorite conservative columnists, called it

America's Doug Mastriano problem. The Washington Post resident Republican Henry Olson, regularly featured in Tangle, said conservatives have only themselves to blame for Mastriano's rise. I always try to avoid fear-mongering or sensationalism in this podcast, but their warnings are both sobering and understated. Mascherano's view isn't just that the 2020 election was stolen. It's that he will have the sole authority to appoint presidential electors if he believes an election is compromised. And given that he believes the 2020 election was compromised, despite providing no evidence to support his claim, that should amount to a five alarm fire for voters. Mascherano isn't simply saying the media is biased and undercut Trump or

Zuckerberg donated to a bunch of Democratic district election centers. He's in the Dominion voting system's 2,000 mules stolen election camp. He seems to believe truly that the vote was compromised irreparably, or at least he's saying as much, and he's about to have the potential to be Pennsylvania's next governor. If Mastriano were to do what he said he would have done in 2020 and appoint his own presidential electors in 2024, even if the Republican candidate lost the popular vote in Pennsylvania, it would create a constitutional crisis the likes of which our country has never seen. It's the kind of thing that would actually have a high likelihood of creating political violence in the streets, weeks of civil unrest, and the potential for a coup at the White House. These are honest stakes about his candidacy and what they mean if he were to do what he says

he would do. North Carolina Republican Ted Budd is kind of made in a similar mold. The big difference between Mastriano and Budd is that Budd was caught on tape admitting Joe Biden won the election despite publicly maintaining otherwise. I'm not sure if that makes him better or worse, but as a senator, he'd have far less say in how North Carolina certifies its vote anyway. He's playing politics while Mastriano will be able to change the law. By job title alone, Budd's story is less important and his views are less threatening. Democratic voters didn't send Mastriano or Budd to the general election, but Democratic politicians in Pennsylvania deserve a note of scorn here too. Their decision to send out flyers boosting Mastriano and running TV ads calling him too conservative for Pennsylvania, which they knew would elevate

him in the primary, is hard for me to understand. Now they will pivot to calling him a threat to democracy, which they should because he is, but if they get Byrne playing with fire, it'll be one of the more disastrous moves in the party's modern history. As we continue to wait for the Pennsylvania results to come in, it's also worth pointing out that we shouldn't have to. Pennsylvania could have had all its results on Tuesday 100% completed if the state legislator would pass a law allowing earlier processing of mail-in votes like they do in Florida and Ohio. But they don't. So instead, we have this. Days of waiting and ambiguity, which leads to suspicion and allegations of fraud. Republicans initially obstructed laws allowing mail-in votes to be counted earlier, despite the fact 37 states allow pre-canvassing.

Last year, Republicans passed a bill to allow five days of pre-canvassing, which would have helped enormously, and the state legislator passed it. But before the bill got to Democratic Governor Tom Wolf's desk, Republicans attached a voter ID provision to it, so Wolf refused to sign. It's a nice encapsulation of partisan politics destroying basically everything. Of course, Trump used the delay to call on Oz to declare victory in the race, even though he led by just a few hundred votes with thousands more to be counted. That approach is a nice reminder of how Trump views the electoral process and why a candidate like Mastriano would be so dangerous if you were governor of a swing state with Trump on the ballot in 2024. In sum, the latest spate

of election results demonstrate the Republican Party's makeover, but the limit of Trump's power too. It shows a still-divided Democratic caucus with an ascendant progressive left, and it ushers in a slew of candidates that appear primed to derail the Democratic process in 2024 should their desired outcome not come to fruition. Amidst all the normality of how so much of it felt, it was also a destabilizing and sobering day. of it felt. It was also a destabilizing and sobering day. All right, that is it for my take. That brings us to your questions answered. This one is from Eric in Atlanta, Georgia. He said, I know you don't like making predictions, but Georgia's Republican primary race for governor seems like a huge next story. Who you got? So all signs are pointing to Brian Kemp. I mean, I don't even know

if it's going to be close. In the latest Fox News poll, Kemp is still holding on to a 32-point lead over former Senator David Perdue. Just 3% of voters are undecided, so I'm not really sure how much there is to see here. Georgia is a new battleground in the conservative movement, though, and if you wanted to make the case that Trump's influence was waning, that is where you would point. Trump endorsed Perdue there, yet his candidate can only get 28% of Republican support in polls. In fact, one poll showed 24% of voters saying Trump's endorsement made them less supportive of Perdue, while 37% said it made them more supportive, and 36% said it had no impact. Frankly, I'd be shocked if Kemp didn't win, but given some major polling errors and the Trump magic, I suppose there's always a chance it's a little tighter than we

think. Still, Georgia is an interesting case study in Republican voters breaking free of Trump's sway and will definitely have to be included in the 2022 midterm autopsy. Alright, that is it for your questions answered, which brings us to a story that matters. The U.S. women's soccer team struck a labor deal that closes a pay gap between it and the men's squad, an unprecedented step that will ensure both teams have equal salaries and bonuses. The deal was part of a new collective bargaining agreement with the U.S. Soccer Federation and marks the conclusion of a years-long battle between the women's team and the sports governing body. One of the most significant concessions is the team bonuses. Until now, the U.S. men's team had earned much larger World Cup

bonuses than the perennial champions on the women's side because FIFA pays out a larger sum to men's teams since the men's tournament generates much more revenue. Now, the two teams will pool and divide bonuses from both World Cups. The Washington Post has the story. There's a link to it in today's newsletter. All right, next up is our numbers section. The number of votes Mehmet Oz has in the Pennsylvania Republican Senate primary race as of 10 a.m. on Thursday morning is 416,785. The number of votes Dave McCormick has is 415,544. The number of votes Doug Mastriano received in the Pennsylvania Republican governor primary race is 588,042. The number of votes Lou Barletta got, the number two

in that race, is 271,292. The percentage of Americans who are being urged to mask up by the CDC because they currently live in high-risk COVID-19 areas is 32%. The number of states where the spread of COVID-19 is accelerating is 49. All right, last but not least, our have a nice day story. Everything is bigger and kind of better, honestly, in Texas, including its dogs. A two-year-old Great Dane named Zeus is now officially the world's tallest dog after hitting a record-breaking height with an official measurement from his vet. The pup stands at 3 feet and 5.18 inches when his feet are on the ground, but can get as tall as 7 feet and 4 inches when standing on his hind legs.

Yes, we have a picture. It is in today's newsletter if you want to go check that out. Alright everybody, that is it for today's podcast. Quick heads up, if you want to hear from us tomorrow, you have to be a subscriber. That means you need to go to readtangle.com slash membership and become a subscriber. To get our Friday edition newsletter tomorrow, we're going to be talking about third parties in America, which I know is very interesting to people. So go to readtangle.com slash membership and become a subscriber. All right, everybody, we'll see you Monday. Peace. All right, everybody. We.readtangle.com. you