Tangle - The National Guard shooting.

Episode Date: December 1, 2025

On Wednesday, a gunman opened fire on West Virginia National Guard troops stationed near the White House in Washington, D.C, striking two service members. Army Specialist Sarah Beckstrom died from her injuries, while Air Force Staff Sergeant Andrew Wolfe remains in critical condition. The suspected shooter was also shot but is expected to survive. The suspect was identified as an Afghan national who worked with a Central Intelligence Agency-backed unit before coming to the United States in 2021 through a Biden administration program that resettled Afghan asylum seekers. He was arrested and charged with first-degree murder, in addition to potential terrorism charges. Ad-free podcasts are here!To listen to this podcast ad-free, and to enjoy our subscriber only premium content, go to ReadTangle.com to sign up!You can read today's podcast⁠ ⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠, our “Under the Radar” story ⁠here and today’s “Have a nice day” story ⁠here⁠.You can subscribe to Tangle by clicking here or drop something in our tip jar by clicking here. Take the survey: What do you think we can learn from the recent shooting? Let us know.Disagree? That's okay. My opinion is just one of many. Write in and let us know why, and we'll consider publishing your feedback.Our Executive Editor and Founder is Isaac Saul. Our Executive Producer is Jon Lall.This podcast was written by: Isaac Saul and edited and engineered by Dewey Thomas. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet 75.Our newsletter is edited by Managing Editor Ari Weitzman, Senior Editor Will Kaback, Lindsey Knuth, Kendall White, Bailey Saul, and Audrey Moorehead. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

From executive producer Isaac Saul, this is Tangle. Good morning, good afternoon and good evening and welcome to the Tangle podcast, a place we get views from across the political spectrum, some independent thinking, and a little bit of my take. I'm your host, Isaac Saul. And on today's episode, we're going to be talking about the National Guard shooting in Washington, D.C. It is Monday, December 1st. This is obviously a difficult, awful tragedy that struck the nation's capital right before the holidays. And there's a lot of complicated narratives sort of intertwined here. So we're going to try and untangle them, as it were.

Before we jump into today's story at the risk of cheapening the seriousness of what we're about to cover, I do want to give everybody a heads up that today is the last opportunity for our Black Friday Cyber Monday special where we're offering 30% off paid subscriptions to Tangle. You can get a bundled subscription to the Tangle podcast and the newsletter at 30% off by going to www. www. reetangle.com

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All right, with that, I'm going to send it over to John for today's main story, and I'll be back for my take. Thanks, Isaac, and welcome, everybody. Hope y'all had a wonderful Thanksgiving. We're able to take some time off to relax and refresh and come into the final month of 2025. I'll have today's question for you after the my take section of the podcast. In the meantime, here are your quick hits for today. First up, President Donald Trump said the airspace above and surrounding Venezuela should be considered closed, raising the prospect of potential U.S. military action. Separately, President Donald Trump backed Defense Secretary Pete Hegeseth following reports that Hegseth ordered a second strike to kill survivors of an initial strike on an alleged drug boat in the Caribbean in September.

Hexeth has dismissed the reports, but some lawmakers have suggested that such an order would constitute a war crime. Number two, four people died in a mass shooting at a children's birthday party in Stockton, California, including three children. Eleven others were injured. Number three, President Trump commuted the seven-year sentence of David Gentile, a former investment manager convicted in 2024 of securities and wire fraud charges. Gentile served less than two weeks of his sentence before the commutation. Separately, President Donald Trump announced his pardon of former Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernandez,

who was sentenced in 2024 to 45 years in prison on drug trafficking and weapons charges. Number four, Ukrainian President Volonimir Zelensky's chief of staff, Andrew Yermak, resigned following reports that he is the subject of an anti-corruption probe. Investigators from Ukraine's anti-corruption agency raided Yermak's house on Friday, but no further information has been released. And number five, authorities in Hong Kong announced the arrests of 13 people amid their investigation into a fire at a housing complex that killed at least 151 people

with at least 40 people still missing. Two National Guardsmen gunned down in Washington, D.C. just before the Thanksgiving holiday. 20-year-old Sarah Bextram passed to glory in the words of her father, while 24-year-old Andrew Wolf continues to fight for his life.

On Wednesday, a gunman opened fire on West Virginia National Guard troops stationed near the White House in Washington, D.C., striking two service members. Army specialist Sarah Bextram died from her injuries, while Air Force Staff Sergeant Andrew Wolf remains in critical condition. The suspected shooter was also shot, but is expected to survive. The suspect was identified as an Afghan National who worked with a central intelligence agency-backed unit before coming to the United States in 2021 through a Biden administration program that resett. Afghan asylum seekers. He was arrested and charged with first-degree murder in addition to potential terrorism charges. A note that due to the well-documented contagion effect, Tangle does not name shooters or suspects in high-profile attacks. In an address on Wednesday night, President Donald Trump called the attack an act of evil, an act of hatred, and an act of terror,

adding that it underscores the single greatest national security threat facing our nation. Subsequently, U.S. citizenship and immigration services said it had stopped processing immigration applications from Afghanistan. On Friday, the Trump administration directed USCIS to pause all asylum decisions while the administration conducts a review of all Biden-era asylum approvals. The suspect, a 29-year-old man, was a member of a special Afghan army unit that worked with the U.S. in Afghanistan prior to the U.S. military's withdrawal in 2021. He came to the United States legally under the Biden administration's Operation Allies Welcome Program, which evacuated and resettled tens of thousands of Afghans as the country's government collapsed. The Trump administration

granted him asylum in 2025. As investigators worked to determine a motive, new reporting suggests the suspects struggled to adjust to life in the United States and had grown increasingly isolated in recent years. According to email sent to the U.S. Committee for Refugees and Immigrants in 2024, the suspect was not functional as a person, father, and provider, since March of last year, 03, 2023. He quit his job that month and his behavior has changed greatly. Other emails described him as prone to manic episodes, depression, and periods of dark isolation and reckless travel. On Sunday, Secretary of Homeland Security Christy Noem suggested that the suspect was radicalized after he came to the U.S., saying,

we do not believe it was through connections in his home country and state, and we're going to continue to talk to those who interacted with him. Noam added that the Trump administration is planning to pursue mass deportations of immigrants from third world countries and will not reopened the asylum process until it clears the current backlog of cases. Separately, President Trump said that he will seek to permanently pause migration from all third world countries. Today, we'll share perspectives from the left and the right on the shooting and the Trump administration's efforts to crack down on immigration. And then Isaac's take. We'll be right back after this.

quick break. All right. First up, let's start with what the left is saying. Many on the left say Trump needlessly put the guard members in harm's way. Some say the blame lies solely with the shooter. Others argue Trump is wrong to punish all Afghan immigrants for the shooting. In the Atlantic, Juliet K.M. said Trump was warned that members of the military could be attacked. Before an Afghan refugee yesterday, shot and seriously injured two National Guard members,

who had been deployed by President Trump to Washington, D.C., military commanders had warned that their deployment represented an easy target opportunity for grievance-based violence, Cam, wrote. Commanders, in a memo that was included in litigation challenging the highly visible mission in D.C., argued that this could put them in danger. The Justice Department countered that the risk was merely speculative. It wasn't. Even if the deployments to D.C. were legal, they lack a clear mandate and metrics of success and have vague rules of engagement and ill-defined operating procedures, and morale is low among part-time volunteer soldiers who have had to leave home to patrol the streets of an American city

that Trump doesn't like, K.M. said, we are not at war now, but Trump's use of the National Guard suggests he thinks we are not at peace either. The National Guard is stranded somewhere on this battlefield of partisan politics. They are not ready for this arena, and we should never have asked them to be. The New York Times editorial board wrote about the uniquely American heartbreak of yet another tragedy. Our knowledge of the suspect and his motives in Wednesday's shootings remain limited. He was described by a friend as a young man troubled by mental illness, as is so often the case in similar crimes.

We also have learned that he came to the United States in 2021, after the chaotic and deadly withdrawal from Afghanistan under the Biden administration, the board said. America, however, is stronger for its long tradition of welcoming immigrants, and as awful as one man's actions apparently were, a crackdown on people here legally. would be a mistake. This is especially true of any backlash against many of the Afghans who worked for years alongside American troops, civil society groups, aid organizations, and journalists. There will be Americans who note that this tragedy could have been averted if Ms. Beckstrom and Mr. Wolf had not been needlessly deployed to Washington in August on the order of President

Trump. No one, including the president, is responsible for this tragedy, except for the perpetrator, the board wrote. The next several days will provide more information about the attack. For now, we know it is a heartbreaking event for two families of young Americans serving their country, and we know that political violence has become alarmingly regular in the United States. All Americans should condemn that. In Bloomberg, Patricia Lopez argued, revetting hundreds of thousands of refugees is an overreaction. The impulse for a retribution is powerful, and after such a senseless act of violence, Trump is probably far from alone in that impulse, but it is fundamentally unfair to consider punishing an estimated 190,000 Afghans for the

alleged actions of one, Lopez said. Wholesale deportations of those Afghans already here would also be a betrayal with grave consequences for our own national security. Breaking our promise to these Afghans, who helped the U.S. wage its longest war, would make it much harder for U.S. troops to gain the trust of locals who know the language, customs, and intelligence so critical to success in foreign wars. Trump insists that we must now re-examine every single alien who has entered our country from Afghanistan under Biden, and we must take all necessary measures to ensure the removal of any alien from any country who does not belong here and add benefit to our country, Lopez wrote. That is a wild overreaction to the tragic event that is shaken the country. There is a

difference between announcing an overhaul of the vetting process, where there is always room for improvement, and upending the lives of hundreds of thousands of law-abiding refugees, not not to mention potentially millions of other immigrants. All right, that is it for what the left is saying, which brings us to what the right is saying. Many on the right say Trump is right to scrutinize the immigration system after the shooting. Some say Afghan refugees should not face retribution for the shooting. Others accuse the Biden administration and Congress of negligence. The New York Post editorial board wrote that an Afghani lunatic proves we must totally overhaul our immigration system.

The details of whether and how the suspect got vetted are for this purpose beside the point. The far larger issue is the insane proliferation of programs that admit foreigners, each with different standards for everything. Not just for whether the authorities adequately assessed the risks, the board said. The suspect seems to have entered with his family under a special immigrant visa program following Biden's disastrous bugout. But that's just one program that focuses on asylum claims. The nation has dozens of systems large and small for legal admission, a jury-rigged patchwork because politicians kept adding new ones rather than rethink everything. The foundation of the system should be supporting immigration as it benefits America and Americans.

Instead, our decades-old base immigration law heavily favors family reunification, which is routinely gamed into chain migration, using up the legal slots that could increase, say, the skills of the nation's workforce, the board wrote. President Donald Trump is thundering about all manner of drastic changes in the wake of the D.C. attack. As usual, his instinct is well-founded, but presidential action alone can't yield a permanent fix. Until the nation can manage a top-to-bottom overhaul of immigration, will keep careening from one migrant mess to another. The Wall Street Journal editorial board argued the shooting shouldn't condemn all who assisted the U.S. and now live here.

The reason for the suspect's alleged turn from partner to terrorist, especially as a husband and father of five in the U.S., is an important question to answer. The FBI will be looking for links to a domestic terrorist cell or international contacts, though he might simply have been disgruntled on his own about his adopted country, the board said. When and how the shooter was approved for entry will become clearer, and no doubt an orderly withdrawal would have allowed more careful investigation. This is one more cost of the Biden administration's Afghan failure. The Trump administration said it is paused processing immigration applications from Afghanistan, and Mr. Trump said the attack justifies his mass deportation policy. But it would be a shame if this single act of betrayal became the excuse for deporting all Afghan refugees in the U.S., the board wrote. Tens of thousands are building new lives here in peace and are contributing to their communities.

They shouldn't be blamed for the violent act of one man. Collective punishment of all Afghans in the U.S. won't make America safer, and it might embitter more against the United States. In National Review, Noah Rothman said the shooting was a terror attack. The attacker was an Afghan national who was one of roughly 200,000 Afghans, brought into the United States in a slapdash fashion, following Joe Biden's botched withdrawal from Central Asia in 2021. His asylum application began under Biden,

but it was certified while Donald Trump was in office, Rothman wrote. He might have been subject to additional scrutiny had Congress passed the Afghan Adjustment Act, which was introduced in both chambers of Congress but never passed. In short, anyone who wants to blame their domestic political opponents for this act of bloodshed will encounter a target-rich environment. What no one in good faith could argue is that this terrorist attack, and it was a terror attack designed to intimidate and suppress American law enforcement, was inspired by the provocative presence of uniformed military personnel on the district's streets.

But that is what some claimed Rothman said. What can be said for certain is that, In the absence of Biden's withdrawal and Congress's lethargy, it would have been far less likely that this terror attack would have occurred. Far too many Americans own those inauspicious acts, and the blame that goes around is diluted as a result. But this is not a tragedy. It is an atrocity.

All right, let's head over to Isaac for his take. All right, that is it. for what the left and the writer saying, which brings us to my take. So I've been doing this podcast and this newsletter for six years now, and over six years, actually. And I've learned that whenever we have high-profile acts of violence like this one, they're really good at pushing people to grasp for simple explanations. This is true, especially of political violence or any violence that happens in the political

arena. Charlie Kirk's murder, for instance, simultaneously evoked think pieces from authors eager to point to their pet issues of left-wing violence or right-wing rhetoric or violence committed by trans people or conspiracies about Israel or gun rights or free speech. The reflex has been similar in this case, too, and it's entirely predictable. For many on the right, this story is simple. It's about Afghan immigrants and the risk of letting radicals in through mass migration. For many on the left, this story is simple too. It's about a legally questionable deployment of the National Guard that was designed to provoke. When you look past the partisan narratives, you find a complicated story that shows you just how hard it is to reduce violent acts to any one issue. The shooter's case itself is a great example of how convoluted

the blame game narratives are. He was admitted to the United States by the Biden administration through a hurried temporary parole program that had a documented history of helping Afghan immigrants on the terrorism watch list. Yet, he was granted asylum here by the Trump administration. He wasn't just an Afghan national, but someone who worked with the CIA, and whose brother was a military leader in an elite CIA squad. According to Chrissy Noem, he was radicalized in the U.S. after immigrating, which would both absolve the Biden administration of negligence and bolster the argument that allowing these migrants in, is risky, even when they clear the vetting process. This is not a simple immigration story where one administration is entirely at fault. The framing from the right is convoluted, too. It's that

the shooter is an example of the dangers of bringing in too many foreign nationals. On the one hand, this suspect is the fourth publicly reported Afghan National to be arrested for an act or potential act of terrorism since just last October. One posted a TikTok video of himself making a bomb, threatening the Fort Worth, Texas area. Two others were involved in an ISIS-inspired plot for a mass casualty attack on Election Day in 2024. Today's suspect allegedly attacked two National Guard troops in broad daylight. As far as threats from nation groups go, these examples paint a pretty unseemly picture of

Afghan immigrants. On the other hand, this shooter is just one of 190,000 Afghan refugees who resettled here after the fall of Kabul in 2021. One single high-profile shooter in 190,000 people is not exactly an endemic issue. For comparison, that's roughly the same odds of being born with 11 fingers or toes or of being struck by lightning

if you're someone who spends a lot of time outside. Additionally, I could find zero instances of mass shootings in the United States committed by Afghan nationals in the last 10 years. In fact, prior to Wednesday, there were just six Afghan-born perpetrators of attacks on U.S. soil in the last 50 years. 2.5% of all foreign-born attackers. That's according to the terrorism data set maintained by the Cato Institute.

However, some aspects of this story are heartbreakingly typical. The shooter was a 20-something male. He had military experience. He was prone to long periods of isolation and was struggling financially. Community members expressed concern about him prior to the act of violence. All of this is common for mass shooters in America. If anything, his Afghan nationality makes him atypical. The framing from the left squarely blaming President Trump's National Guard deployment

is not as much convoluted as it is overly simplistic. On the one hand, military commanders did warn that putting the National Guard in the street could incite an event like this, calling the deployments a target of opportunity for grievance-based violence. Initially, these troops were unarmed and they weren't permitted to have weapons in their vehicles, but they were then given green status, allowing them to carry unloaded weapons and ammunition. In the wake of this shooting, the troops could be placed under amber status, ammunition loaded, but not in the firing chamber, or red status, gun ready to be fired.

Violence begets violence, and escalation leads to more escalation, so this development would lead us a step closer towards precisely what many critics worried about. Armed troops in the streets, feeling under threat, surrounded by angry and fearful citizens. On the other hand, the National Guard troops the shooter targeted were just outside the White House. It's not as if they were controversially patrolling the D.C. neighborhoods on foot. And even there, the troop deployments in D.C. have begun to find favor in unexpected corners. The city, whose crime data may have been underrepresented for several years, has recently experienced a fall in homicides and a spike in arrests for murders. The White House claims,

crime is down 40% from this time last year, and mayor, Muriel Browser, indefinitely extended the collaboration between local and federal law enforcement while keeping National Guard troops in the city. Put differently, Trump's troop deployment has gone exactly as some critics said it would and exactly as Trump said it would, yet another data point on how unwise it is to reach for a simple narrative here. Trump is responding to this attack by promising mass deportations, promising to clear the backlog of asylum cases and putting a permanent pause on migration from quote-unquote third-world countries. Again, analysis here begs for some complication. It would be an absurd overreaction to punish hundreds of thousands of Afghan immigrants, many of whom are here because of America's actions

in Afghanistan in response to this one shooting. It is also true that pausing the asylum process until the current backlog is cleared, could greatly benefit the entire system. Maintaining a huge, years-long line of cases yet to be heard is harmful to people with legitimate asylum claims who can't get in, many of whom then decide to come here illegally instead of facing rejection and isolation and bureaucratic obscurity. And, as is typical, no lasting solution in response to this violence is possible without some help from Congress. As the New York Post editorial board argued under what the right is saying,

one of the fundamental problems with our system is that it is a patchwork of dozens of programs for specialized immigrant groups, all with different and disparate qualifications to enter the country. This shooter came in under one such program, and it's possible that something like the Afghan Adjustment Act could have tagged this case for review. That program is a complex effort itself. It offered more pathways to permanent legal status for Afghan immigrants, but only under the condition of enhanced vetting. It was introduced with bipartisan support in 2022,

and again in 2023, and again in 2024, but he's yet to become long, inexplicably. All of this is without even mentioning one of the most relevant details. The motive for this attack is still unknown, as is the question about whether the shooter obtained his gun legally or illegally. So here we are. A heartbreaking tragedy just before the holidays, with many potential simple answers that each fail to tell the whole story.

All the while, a legislative solution continues to languish after three failed bipartisan efforts in the past three years. I'm eager to push for effective legislation, but I'm also aware that blaming Congress for an action is a too simple story of its own. Perhaps the difficult truth is that in a pluralistic society where we are granted robust freedoms and welcome people from all walks of life,

tragedies like this are impossible to prevent with any single remedy. That reality is unsatisfying, but it demands we allow for more than one narrative when looking for a solution. We'll be right back after this quick break. All right, that is it for my take, which brings us to your questions answered. This one's from Stanley in Kokana, Wisconsin. I think that's how you say that. Stanley said, recently, I've been hearing a lot of concern about the AI bubble. My understanding is that there's tons of investor money going into AI, but not a lot of profit coming out. The concern is that these investments are propping up the stock market, but when the companies collapse, we will get another recession.

Is this a real possibility? What else do I need to know to understand this story? Okay, first of all, I'm not an economist, and this is not economic financial advice. But yes, that is mostly right. I would give it a small edit first. 42% of the value in the S&P 500 is held by the 10 largest companies on the exchange. So led by tech giants like Navidia, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta, those 10 companies held $25.1 trillion of market capitalization as of November. However, they are immensely profitable.

Navidia, for instance, announced record earnings of $57 billion last quarter. The concern instead is whether the market is overly reliant on these businesses and if they will continue to grow. In October, Scott Galloway, who wrote a book about Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google, said, quote, since ChatGPT launched in November 2022, AI-related stocks have registered 75% of the SNP 500 returns, 80% of earnings growth and 90% of capital spending growth, end quote. So that represents a big bet on the future value of data centers to service the economy's demand for artificial intelligence and one that's shared by the rest of the companies powering the S&P 500.

Morgan Stanley projects that Google, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and CoreWeave will spend $400 billion on AI infrastructure by the end of this year. Additionally, most of these major players are exchanging most of their funds, among one another, a phenomenon some investors are calling the tech circularity. Econ blogger Brian Robertson described it like this, quote, a tech giant like Microsoft invest a billions into an AI startup like OpenAI.

Open AI, in turn, uses that money to pay for cloud computing services from Microsoft to Zure. Similarly, Amazon invest billions in Anthropic, which then spends that money on Amazon Web Services. It's a closed loop, a circular flow of capital that inflates revenues and creates a morose. of economic activity end quote all in all that means that when you as a retail investor by the market you're disproportionately investing in companies that are disproportionately investing in AI and if the

i market falters so too will your whole portfolio that's the basic story so yeah a market crash is possible but again i'll stress i have no idea what's going to happen next and i'm not your financial advisor great question though all right that is it for your questions answered i'm going to send it back to John for the rest of today's show, and I'll see you guys tomorrow. Have a good one. Peace. Thanks, Isaac. Here's your under-the-radar story for today, folks. For the first time in 10 years, no hurricanes made landfall in the continental United States during this year's hurricane season. Since the season's start on June 1st, multiple storms appeared likely to impact areas on the east coast, but all moved back out to sea before reaching the coastline. Experts,

said winds and air pressure created unique atmosphere conditions that caused these storms to recurve, initially moving west, but shifting northward back out over the ocean before reaching land. Other experts suggested that the jet stream, a band of wind in the upper atmosphere that runs west to east, contributed to a low-pressure area over the ocean that pushed hurricanes away from the U.S. mainland. CBS News has this story, and there's a link in today's episode description. All right. Next up is our numbers section. The approximate number of National Guard troops that have been deployed to Washington, D.C. is 2,220. The number of those troops who were deployed from outside Washington, D.C., is 1,200. The number of additional National Guard troops that President Trump wants to send to Washington, D.C., following the shooting, is 500. The approximate number of Afghan nationals who were resettled in the United States following the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan is 76,000. According to Department of of Homeland Security data, the number of Afghan nationals admitted to the U.S.

under-operation allies welcome who were flagged for national security issues is 5,05. The number of Afghan nationals admitted to the U.S. under-operation allies welcome who were flagged for public safety concerns is 956. According to a Cato Institute analysis, the number of Afghan nationals who committed terrorist acts in the United States between 1975 and 2024 is six. and the number of people who are killed in those attacks is zero. And before we get into our Have a Nice Day story, my question for you this week is a pretty simple one.

It's one that we asked at our family's Thanksgiving dinner table every year, and we continue to do it now, which is, what are you thankful for? I'm excited to hear your answers, and hopefully you're excited to share them. You can write to me at John J-O-N at reedtangle.com. All right, and last but not least, our Have a Nice Day story. Treatment for malaria, which killed an estimated 569,000 people in Africa in 2023, primarily relies on artemisinin-based combination therapies. However, the parasite responsible for the most severe type of the disease

has started to become resistant to ACTs. A new drug called KLU 156 could tilt the scales back. A recent clinical trials showed that KLU156 equaled or outperformed the ACT used for the study, and Novartis, the company that produces KLU 156, plans to seek regulatory approval for the drug as soon as possible. Having a new compound that is not artemisinin-based, and that is effective and safe, is really music to my ears, Abdolai Jim Deh, Mali-based malaria researcher and member of the study team said,

science has this story, and there's a link in today's episode description. All right, everybody, that is it for today's episode. As always, if you'd like to support our work, please go to reetangle.com, where you can sign up for a newsletter membership, podcast membership, or a bundled membership that gets you a discount on both. We'll be right back here tomorrow. For Isaac and the rest of the crew, this is John Law, signing off.

Have a great day, y'all. Peace. Our executive editor and founder is me. Isaac Saul, and our executive producer is John Woll. Today's episode was edited and engineered by Dewey Thomas. Our editorial staff is led by managing editor Ari Weitzman with senior editor Will Kayback and associate editors Hunter Casperson, Audrey Moorhead,

Bailey Saul, Lindsay Canuth, and Kendall White. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet 75. To learn more about Tangle and to sign up for a membership, please visit our website at reetangle.com.