Tangle - The Omicron variant.

Episode Date: November 29, 2021

Over the weekend, several countries around the world implemented new Covid-19 travel restrictions over fears of the newest variant, despite little knowledge of how contagious it is or where exactly it is present. Omicron was first detected in South Africa, which has one of the most sophisticated screening systems in the world (it's a presumption to say it "originated" there — more likely, they were just the first to discover it). Australia, Belgium, Botswana, Britain, Denmark, Germany, Hong Kong, Israel, Italy, the Netherlands, France, and Canada have all also detected the variant, according to Reuters. This week, in honor of Giving Tuesday, one of the most charitable days of the year, Tangle will be donating 50% of all new subscription revenue and "tips" this week to Heavenly HRVST, one of my favorite charities that provides delicious shelf-stable meals to the hungry in New York City and across the east coast. I've met and interviewed their founder, John Doherty, and even tried their meals, which are fantastic. It's a great organization that we love to support.You can subscribe to Tangle by clicking here or drop something in our tip jar by clicking here.You can read today's newsletter here.Our newsletter is written by Isaac Saul, edited by Bailey Saul, Sean Brady, Ari Weitzman, and produced in conjunction with Tangle’s social media manager Magdalena Bokowa, who also created our logo.The podcast is edited by Trevor Eichhorn, and music for the podcast was produced by Diet 75.--- Send in a voice message: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/tanglenews/message Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Based on Charles Yu's award-winning book, Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu, a background character trapped in a police procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. The flu remains a serious disease. Last season, over 102,000 influenza cases have been reported across Canada, which is Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. yourself from the flu. It's the first cell-based flu vaccine authorized in Canada for ages six months and older, and it may be available for free in your province. Side effects and allergic reactions can occur, and 100% protection is not guaranteed. Learn more at flucellvax.ca.

From executive producer Isaac Saul, this is Tangle. Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening, and welcome to the Tangle Podcast, a place where you get views from across the political spectrum, some independent thinking without all that hysterical nonsense you find everywhere else. I am your host, Isaac Saul, and I want to wish everyone a happy Thanksgiving and a happy Hanukkah to all my Jews out there. I hope everyone had a great break and some good time off from work and some good family time and all that good stuff. Not to be a huge downer, but today we are going to be jumping into the new COVID-19 variant and what it means.

As always, though, before we do, we'll start with some quick hits. the kids. First up, Congress returns from a holiday break facing a slew of deadlines, including the need to avoid a government shutdown, lift the debt ceiling, and advance President Joe Biden's social and climate spending bill. Number two, the killers of Ahmaud Arbery were found guilty on 23 of 27 charges last week. Number three, major stock indexes and oil began to rebound on Monday after a major sell-off on news of the Omicron variant. Number four, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky claimed he has uncovered a plot to overthrow his government next week and pointed the finger at Russia. Number five, Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey is expected to step down from his executive role at the company soon. All right, that brings us to our main topic today, the Omicron variant. But before we jump in, I just want to let you guys know that in honor of Giving Tuesday,

which is one of the most charitable days of the year, Tangle will be donating 50% of all new subscription revenue and tips this week to Heavenly Harvest, be donating 50% of all new subscription revenue and tips this week to Heavenly Harvest, a favorite charity of mine that provides delicious shelf-stable meals to the hungry here in New York City and up and down the East Coast. I've met and interviewed their founder, John Doherty. I've even tried some of their meals, which are fantastic. It's a charity I feel really good about supporting. And if you subscribe to Tangle or drop something in our tip jar anytime this week, half of that money will go straight to them. Just want to let you know you can find those links in the episode description or in our newsletter. The growing concern around the world about the

COVID variant Omicron. It's a new strain first detected in South Africa, and it's now spreading there quickly. Tonight, with the holiday travel season already underway, the U.S. is bracing for the new Omicron variant. New cases just confirmed in Ontario, Canada late today. President Biden meeting with members of his COVID-19 response team and chief medical advisor, Dr. Fauci. In a world fatigued by waves of COVID-19, now renewed fear. In South Africa, scientists identifying a troubling new

variant of the virus that is dominating infections here. All right, so over the weekend, several countries around the world implemented new COVID-19 travel restrictions over fear of the newest COVID-19 variant called Omicron, despite little being known about how contagious it is or where exactly it is present. Omicron was first detected in South Africa, which has one of the most sophisticated screening systems in the world. It's actually a mistake to say it originated there, more likely they were just the first to discover it. Australia, Belgium, Botswana, Britain, Denmark, Germany, Hong Kong, Israel, Italy, the Netherlands, France, South Africa, and Canada have all detected the variant as well. Beginning on Monday, the U.S. will restrict non-U.S. citizens and residents from South Africa, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Namibia, Basutu, Eswatini,

Mozambique, and Malawi from traveling to the United States. Israel has banned all foreigners from entry. Australia has restricted travelers from several of those African countries, and the UK reintroduced mass mandates and PCR tests for all travelers. In response to the restrictions, the stock market took a tumble last week,

though it has appeared to begin to recover on Monday. The variant is raising concerns among scientists because it carries at least 30 mutations on the virus's spike protein, which is the mechanism that helps it bind to human cells. The World Health Organization called it a variant of concern on Friday, saying it could present a higher risk of a person contracting COVID-19 a second time. Still, though, very little is known about Omicron. Epidemiologists have said it will take weeks to gather data on the

variant and understand if it spreads more easily, evades vaccines at a higher rate, or causes more serious cases of COVID-19. So far, we don't know whether any of those things are true. We do know that past variants like Delta have caused new surges and the virus has become the dominant strain in both Europe and the U.S. Now, I know many people like to say that COVID-19 should not be political and instead discussion about the virus should lead with science, and I tend to agree. But the response to COVID-19 is being driven primarily by governments and its impact on our country cannot be completely detached from our politics. So for the purposes of this newsletter, I'm trying to mix in both the scientific assessments at play from the quote-unquote experts with the political punditry related to news around Omicron and what it means.

In this case, the left and the right have both responded in fairly distinct ways. And below, we'll take a look at some commentary from some scientists and then some punditry from the left and the right. Then, of course, we'll jump into my take. All right, first up, we'll start with what some of the scientists are saying. There are sort of three main points they're making. First, there are critical questions that we still need more data to answer. Second, we should err on the side of caution. And third, vaccines are still the best defense for everyone. Dr. Ashish Jha, the dean of Brown University School of Public Health, said there are still questions we need to answer. While most of these variants turn out to be inconsequential, some, like the Delta variant, are immensely consequential, Jha wrote. It is essential that world leaders respond quickly and aggressively even before

all the data about this variant emerge. The first question is whether the variant is more transmissible than the current prevalent Delta strain. Second, does it cause more severe disease? And third, will it render our immune defenses from vaccines and prior infections less effective, a phenomenon known as immune escape? On transmissibility, the data, while early, looks worrisome, Jha said. It's possible that this early data will be revised as epidemiologists look closer at factors other than transmissibility, such as whether an early Omicron super spreader event led to the variant appearing more highly contagious than it really is. While this is possible, the more likely scenario is that Omicron does spread more easily than Delta.

It is extremely unlikely that Omicron will render the COVID-19 vaccines completely ineffective, although there is reason for concern. Omicron has a large number of mutations, including in the spike protein the part of the protein that the virus uses to bind to and enter human cells. These areas of the protein are critical for vaccine-induced and infection-induced antibodies to protect against the virus. Even small hits to vaccine efficacy will leave us more vulnerable to infection and illness and can make it harder to contain the virus. Dr. Meru Shil, a senior research fellow at the National Center for Epidemiology and Population Health at the Australian National University, said that this entire episode could have been avoided.

The vast majority of low- and middle-income countries have only vaccinated a small proportion of their population. An analysis suggests that while 66% of people in high-income countries are fully vaccinated, only 2.5% of the population in low-income countries are fully vaccinated, only 2.5 percent of the population in low-income countries are fully protected, she wrote. With more than 3.5 billion people in the world waiting for their first dose of the vaccine, many high-income countries are now introducing boosters or third doses for the entire population, along with pediatric vaccines. Science tells us we could have avoided the emergence of this new variant of concern, Scheel said. Viral mutations are a part of natural selection and are common. When the virus enters a cell, it can make copies of itself that go off and infect other cells and then pass to another

person. Sometimes during this process of copying in non-immune persons, it may introduce an error or mutation, and at times these mutations can offer competitive advantage to the viruses to spread from one non-immune person to another. But if a person is already immune, say from vaccination, then the virus cannot spread between people, preventing the emergence of new variants. Omicron is a timely reminder that we need larger populations of the world to be vaccinated against COVID-19. All right, so that is the scientist's take here, and this is what the left is saying.

First, the left notes that the pandemic is still far from over. Second, they are urging President Biden to lead with transparency and action. And third, they are saying everyone should get vaccinated and get their booster shot. The Washington Post editorial board said this is a reminder that the pandemic is not yet gone. The Delta variant, for reasons still unclear, surges at different places over time. A few months ago it was rampaging in Florida and the South. Now it is in the upper Midwest. Delta's behavior is hard to figure. It can set off a precipitous surge and then decline almost as suddenly as happened in India. Or it can zoom up to a plateau and stay there as in Britain, the board said.

The latest jolt came Friday over a new variant, Omicron, spreading fast in South Africa and designated as a variant of concern by the World Health Organization, which said it has a large number of mutations. It will take time to determine if the variant is more transmissible than Delta or more virulent, but it is a worrisome development. In the United States, the pandemic is being fueled by the unvaccinated. 47 million adults and 12 million eligible teenagers, the board said. New daily cases nationwide have been on the upswing for three weeks. Michigan, which had as few as 102 new daily cases at one point in the summer, now has a seven-day average of more than 7,000. At Spectrum Health, a system of 14 hospitals and other care facilities

in western Michigan, 86 percent of the hospitalized COVID patients and 90 percent of those in intensive care units are unvaccinated, many with underlying conditions as well. Increasingly, waning efficacy of the vaccine is giving the virus room to spread. The phenomenon should At CNN, Dean Obadala called it a crucial test for President Biden. While we await more details from scientists, this is the time for President Joe Biden and his administration to give a masterclass in effective and honest leadership in the face of a potential new crisis, Obadala wrote. Biden has already stepped up on that front, announcing just hours after South Africa's health minister released information about the new variant, flights have been banned from seven African nations where the variant has been spreading. In contrast, in early 2020, former

President Donald Trump waited until after 45 other countries had banned flights from China, given the virus spread there, to impose ban on flights from that nation into the United States. From here, Biden should hold regular press briefings to update Americans on new developments, and, as he did when he first took office, these coronavirus briefings should be led by medical experts who can provide scientifically based information to a nation eager to know, he added. But Biden should be there himself to show Americans he is in charge and on top of this. All right, so that's it for the left's take, and this is the right's take. All right, so that's it for the left stake, and this is the right stake.

Based on Charles Yu's award-winning book, Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu, a background character trapped in a police procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. The flu remains a serious disease. Last season, over 102,000 influenza cases have been reported across Canada, which is nearly double the historic average of 52,000 cases. What can you do this flu season? Talk to your pharmacist or doctor about getting a flu shot. Consider FluCellVax Quad and help protect yourself from the flu.

It's the first cell-based flu vaccine authorized in Canada for ages six months and older, and it may be available for free in your province. Side effects and allergic reactions can occur, and 100% protection is not guaranteed. Learn more at FluCellVax.ca. The right is saying that we have the tools to respond to Omicron. We need to avoid any government lockdowns or reimposing restrictions. And third, there is a huge cost to being too cautious and we need more data first. In the Wall Street Journal, the editorial board said we are well prepared for variants with vaccines and new COVID-19 treatments, but should avoid any more government lockdowns.

with vaccines and new COVID-19 treatments, but should avoid any more government lockdowns. Travel restrictions didn't stop the Delta Alpha or the original Wuhan strain from spreading around the world, the board wrote. Omicron has been found in Belgium, which means it's probably already in Europe and the U.S. too. If Omicron is found in more countries, as invariably it will be, will governments shut down their borders and lock down again? That's the fear animating markets. Many European countries are reimposing pandemic restrictions in response to rising cases. Austria has shut down again, and Germany is flirting with another national lockdown. Belgium on Friday announced it would close nightclubs and prohibit private parties except for weddings and funerals. One clear lesson from the pandemic is that lockdowns do more harm than good, the board

added. Booster shots will help the U.S. and Europe weather a winter surge and mitigate the impact of Omicron. That's no doubt why Mr. Biden on Friday urged all Americans to get boosters, though the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention was late to endorse them for all adults. The administration worried about the political optics of boosting Americans while most people in low-income countries remain unvaccinated. That's also why Mr. Biden on Friday reiterated his support for a petition at the World Trade Organization backed by South Africa and India to waive intellectual property rights for COVID vaccines. In the Washington Post, Meghan McArdle said we need policies that let us live through the pandemic while still actually living.

That strategy can't be everyone go home and stay there, she said. The cost of further lockdowns would be heavy, from eating disorders to opioid overdoses to small business failures and school kids falling behind. Besides, pandemic fatigue is setting in even in blue states. We must be more selective in our policies, opting for anti-COVID measures that disrupt daily life as little as possible. And we should look for ones that sidestep contentious political battles such as mask mandates. Fortunately, or rather unfortunately, there are a lot of effective strategies in the United States that we still haven't exploited effectively, such as better ventilation and

updating building codes to require it. We can also re-implement policies we have used to good effect. Travel bans, such as the one the Biden administration announced Friday, can't stop codes to require it. We can also re-implement policies we have used to good effect. Travel bans, such as the one the Biden administration announced Friday, can't stop variants from penetrating our borders, but they can slow the new strain down and give us time to ramp up other mitigations, such as variant-tailored booster shots. Antiviral treatments that seem to massively cut the risk of severe complications are now available. We need home testing kits so cheap and plentiful that everyone has piles of them everywhere. We also need to clean up our vaccination data, which is a mess. After we fix our own problems, we should spread the wealth around helping poorer

countries do more testing and tracking. All right, that is it for the left and the right and the scientific take, which brings us to my take. So first of all, I would bet good money that the Omicron variant is already in the U.S., and I think everyone should be working from that baseline assumption. President Trump was panned for his travel bans, either for being ineffective or racially charged. I never viewed them as racist or xenophobic and never said as much in this newsletter. I actually think few people called Trump xenophobic for his bans. It was more likely because of his comments about China, which a reader successfully convinced me of many months ago. And while I don't doubt that the travel bans might buy us a little time, I take issue with the presumption that this variant started in South Africa rather than simply

being initially detected there, the latter of which is almost certainly the case thanks to the country's incredibly sophisticated testing and genome sequencing infrastructure. It's also true that travel bans are a bad incentive. South Africa alerted the world to this variant in the same way we all wished the Chinese government warned us of COVID-19. Their reward was to be immediately cut off and isolated, something I'm sure other nations are now taking note of. The pandemic and how to respond to it has never been a particularly complicated subject to me. I bought into the initial lockdown's restrictions and social distancing measures because I wanted to stop the curve. I wear a mask when I'm required to or asked to because there is evidence it slows

the spread of COVID-19. I got vaccinated and will get the booster shot because the vaccines appear safe and effective, particularly at preventing serious illness, even if their effectiveness wanes over time or they don't completely eliminate the spread of the virus. Balancing these measures with individual liberties is crucial, and that's why I've never been supportive of government mandates. The employer option to test or get vaccinated seems pretty reasonable to me, and I've also advocated an end to the quote-unquote lockdowns relatively early on in the pandemic. I don't think this latest news changes much for me, except my urgency and interest in a booster shot. Right or wrong, given the mood of the country, there is little to no chance most Americans would even abide by reimposing social distancing rules if the CDC or other epidemiologists called for them.

It should be said that some of the doom, gloom, and panic is totally warranted. The virus is a scourge, still killing nearly a thousand people a day in the U.S. alone, something we should never become numb to. About 1,600 people die from cancer a day in the U.S., and it should still shock and disturb us that a contagious virus that didn't exist two years ago is doing nearly that damage despite vaccines to prevent it and two years of trying to stop it. Any new variables to worsen that already horrific toll on our country should worry you. But we have good news too. Vaccines can be adapted and so far remain defective against every variant we've seen. The economic rebound is underway, however sporadic. Kids are back in school, effective treatments are being stocked up, we have a high vaccination rate among the most vulnerable, and we just had a Thanksgiving that was largely unrestricted. We need a lot more information on Omicron to make our next move,

but we must ensure we use the lessons of the last two years to inform whatever path we take forward. All right, that's it for my take. That brings us to our reader question today. This one is from an anonymous reader in San Mateo, California. They ask, what do you think of the media coverage on the Rittenhouse trial? I was looking at the court videos and found the media coverage of the trial to be highly distorted in comparison. There seems to be an enormous gap between what occurred in the trial and the facts presented in court and the news stories about the trial. This does not bode well in terms of media trust and what the public thinks occurred versus primary sources. Can anything be done to solve this? So look, I mean, in terms of television coverage, I thought it was pretty much awful.

Many outlets, including CNN and MSNBC, were still spreading misinformation even after the trial solidified the evidence and basic facts that have been out there for months. I wrote about this in my own coverage of the Rittenhouse trial when I tried to break down precisely what happened and what was going on in court. There was some stellar print coverage, though, even from outlets with a bad reputation on the right. The Washington Post and the New York Times, for instance, both put together tremendously helpful retellings of that night in Kenosha with dozens of interviews, hours of video footage and photographic evidence, as well as police interviews and court records. I mean, they showed us pretty much what we got in the trial months before the trial by just putting together all that evidence. I'm not sure much can be done in terms of changing the actual coverage. We've known for years the lessons around situations like what happened in Kenosha. Don't make assumptions, wait for more evidence, don't try to be first, try to be right. But television news today thrives on breaking news, punditry, and the Thunderdome split-screen debates between highly polarized and agenda-driven commentators.

That's why Tucker Carlson and Rachel Maddow are household names when actual news reporters and anchors are not. I've always believed that it starts with us. By turning those programs off and instead reading your news or seeking out more nuanced and balanced outlets, you can create an incentive for them to act differently. Short of that, though, I don't have a great answer. All right, that brings us to our story that matters. This one is actually tied to the pandemic. It turns out that Republican officials are testing a new strategy to win over the loyalty of vaccine-hesitant Americans, jobless aid. In Florida, Iowa, Kansas, and Tennessee, Republican officials have changed unemployment insurance rules to allow workers who were fired or quit over a vaccine mandate to receive aid. The new rule comes on top of nine states GOP-led that have already passed laws requiring exemptions from the Biden administration's mandate calling for vaccines or regular testing.

This new move is the latest indication the GOP is hoping to ramp up support from unvaccinated Americans as they head into the 2022 midterms. Axios has a great story about this in the newsletter today. All right, and that brings us to our numbers section with quite a few interesting numbers tied to the pandemic. 48.3 million is the estimated number of Americans who traveled at least 50 miles from their home for Thanksgiving this year. 83,365 is the average number of new daily COVID-19 cases in the U.S. today, according to a New York Times tracker. 8,457 is the average number of new daily COVID-19 cases in Michigan alone. 3% is the rise in COVID-19 cases in the U.S. over the last 14 days. 18% is the rise in COVID-19 testing over the last 14 days.

And 10% is the drop in COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. over the last 14 days. All right, finally, that brings us to our have a nice day story. I love this one. Five years ago, a seven-year-old named Cash learned that the Tennessee River was polluted. He did some research with his parents and decided that he wanted to be the face of a conservation effort to clean the river and began hosting river cleanups. In four years, he removed 14,000 pounds of trash and recycled more than one ton of aluminum from the river. He uses the money he makes from recycling to place monofilament recycling bins on the river where fishermen can dispose their line rather than leaving it in the water. Now the 12-year-old has a non-profit called Conservation Kid where he is hoping to inspire other youngsters to participate

in waterway cleanups. Kix Brooks Radio in Tennessee has the story today. There's a link to it in our newsletter. All right, everybody, that is it for today's podcast. Like I said at the top, we are getting in the giving spirit this week. So if you want to help support us and give to charity, you can subscribe to Tangle or drop something in our tip jar. There are some links in the episode description and in our newsletter. As always, the best way to help us out is to spread the word. Share the podcast with some friends, family. Send the link around or just give us a five-star rating wherever you listen to podcasts.

And we will see you tomorrow. Our newsletter is written by Isaac Saul, edited by Bailey Saul, Sean Brady, Ari Weitzman, and produced in conjunction with Tangle's social media manager, Magdalena Bokova, who also helped create our logo. For more from Tangle, subscribe to our newsletter or check out our content archives at www.readtangle.com. so We'll see you next time. Lee becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. The flu remains a serious disease. Last season, over 102,000 influenza cases have been reported across Canada, which is nearly double the historic average of 52,000 cases. What can you do this flu season? Talk to your pharmacist or doctor about getting Thank you.