Tangle - The Potential Sale of U.S. Steel
Episode Date: September 17, 2024On Friday, The Washington Post reported that President Joe Biden is unlikely to make a decision on whether to block Japanese steelmaker Nippon Steel’s bid to acquire U.S. Steel until after... the election. White House officials said Biden remains opposed to the deal but is reportedly concerned about the economic and political ramifications of doing so. On November 5, we are going to be hosting a live, in-person election night watch party at Tangle HQ in Philadelphia. But before we start planning, we want to know what the demand would be for an event like this. We’ll probably only be able to host 50-100 people. So, if you could, please fill out this quick form and let us know if you'd like to come (or tune in). You can read today's podcast here, our “Under the Radar” story here and today’s “Have a nice day” story here.You can watch the replay of our live stream of the Harris Trump debate with commentary from Isaac on our YouTube Channel!Check out Episode 6 of our podcast series, The Undecideds. Please give us a 5-star rating and leave a comment!You can subscribe to Tangle by clicking here or drop something in our tip jar by clicking here. Help share Tangle.I'm a firm believer that our politics would be a little bit better if everyone were reading balanced news that allows room for debate, disagreement, and multiple perspectives. If you can take 15 seconds to share Tangle with a few friends I'd really appreciate it. Email Tangle to a friend here, share Tangle on X/Twitter here, or share Tangle on Facebook here.Take the survey: What do you think of the potential U.S. Steel acquisition? Let us know!Our podcast is written by Isaac Saul and edited and engineered by Dewey Thomas. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet 75. Our newsletter is edited by Managing Editor Ari Weitzman, Will Kaback, Bailey Saul, Sean Brady, and produced in conjunction with Tangle’s social media manager Magdalena Bokowa, who also created our logo. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening, and welcome to the Tangle Podcast,
the place we get views from across the political spectrum, some independent thinking, and a little bit of my take. I'm your host, Isaac Sol, and on today's episode, we're going to be talking about
U.S. steel. That's right. This is a Pittsburgh-heavy edition with, you know, some stuff about Nippon Steel and Japan,
so it gets pretty interesting.
Before we do jump in, though, I want to give you a quick heads up to mark your calendars.
On November 5th, that's Election Day,
we're going to be hosting a live in-person election night watch party at Tangle HQ right here in Philadelphia.
We're going to have food, beverages, maybe a few election related games, and some live coverage of the night as
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I'm going to pass it over to John for today's main topic, and then I'll be back with my take.
Thanks, Isaac, and welcome, everybody. Here are your quick hits for today.
First up, Ryan Wesley Routh, the suspect in Sunday's assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump, appeared in court to face federal gun charges. Separately, the Wall
Street Journal reported that Routh had been flagged by U.S. authorities for erratic behavior in recent
years. Number two, Boeing is planning to freeze hiring and potentially conduct a temporary layoffs
amid a factory worker strike that began last week. Number three, Ohio Governor Mike DeWine announced he is sending the state police to Springfield,
Ohio to bolster security after multiple bomb threats forced elementary schools to evacuate
in the past week.
Number four, oral arguments in federal court began in TikTok's challenge to a law that
would ban the social media app in the U.S. if it is not sold.
And number five, the Senate will vote today on
legislation to establish a nationwide right to in vitro fertilization.
The Biden administration is preparing to block the acquisition of U.S. steel by a Japanese company.
Reuters says that CFIA sent Nippon Steel a letter on Saturday saying that deal would pose a national security risk by harming the American steel industry.
Also new this morning, Nippon Steel is looking to sweeten the deal in hopes of being allowed to buy U.S. steel.
And their proposal could mean money spent right here in our area.
On Friday, the Washington Post reported
that President Joe Biden is unlikely to make a decision
on whether to block Japanese steelmaker Nippon Steel's bid
to acquire U.S. steel until after the election.
White House officials said Biden remains opposed
to the deal, but is reportedly concerned
about the economic and political ramifications of doing so.
In December of 2023, U.S. Steel agreed to be acquired by Nippon in a $14.1 billion acquisition
after a months-long sales process that included a lower bid from Ohio-based Cleveland Cliffs.
Nippon is Japan's largest steelmaker, and the acquisition would make them the world's second largest steel producer by capacity
behind China Baowu Steel Group.
U.S. Steel, which is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, formed in 1901 and was once the largest steel producer and the largest corporation in the world.
In recent decades, however, the company, along with the broader domestic steel industry, has declined.
The acquisition must be approved by both U.S. Steel's shareholders and federal
regulators. In April, shareholders approved the deal, but regulatory review by the Committee on
Foreign Investment is ongoing, and the White House says it is waiting for the Interagency Review
Board's recommendation. The United Steel Workers Union, which is represented by 11,000 workers at
U.S. Steel, immediately opposed the deal and was joined by some Democratic and Republican politicians, including Pennsylvania Senators John Fetterman and Bob Casey. Critics of the
acquisition say it poses a threat to the U.S. Steel industry and supply chains, while United
Steel Workers' leadership worries that Nippon would not honor pension agreements or keep its
promise to invest in facilities in Pennsylvania. However, U.S. Steel has said that it may close
some operations in Pennsylvania and even reloc U.S. Steel has said that it may close some operations in
Pennsylvania and even relocate its Pittsburgh headquarters if the acquisition does not go
through. Many steel workers and Pittsburgh-area politicians support the deal, viewing it as a
lifeline for the steel industry. Nippon has pledged to invest $2.7 billion in U.S. steel facilities.
Chris Kelly, the mayor of West Mifflin, Pennsylvania, which is home to a U.S. steel facilities. Chris Kelly, the mayor of West Mifflin, Pennsylvania, which is home
to a U.S. steel plant, said he worries that the failed deal will shutter the plant, resulting in
job losses, tax hikes, and reduced public services. Despite these concerns, both the Democratic and
Republican presidential nominees have vocally opposed the deal. In April, President Biden vowed
to block the acquisition, and Vice President Kamala Harris affirmed her opposition to the deal earlier this month during a campaign event in Pennsylvania.
Former President Donald Trump said he would instantaneously block the deal if elected.
In May, Nippon's deal postponed the closing of the deal in response to a Justice Department request for more documentation.
The deal is expected to close by December.
The deal is expected to close by December.
Earlier this month, NBC News reported that Biden was preparing to formally block the acquisition,
but recent reporting suggests the president is re-evaluating the decision.
Today, we'll dive into arguments about the deal from the right and the left, and then Isaac's take. We'll be right back after this quick break.
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All right, first up, let's start with what the right is saying.
The right mostly supports the deal, suggesting it offers a crucial lifeline to the American steel industry.
Some question the logic of Biden's opposition to the acquisition.
Others say national security concerns outweigh potential economic gains.
In the Wall Street Journal, Charlie Dent wrote, Biden may sabotage the steel industry.
The American steel industry has faced significant challenges for decades. Global competition has
intensified, and despite various efforts to revitalize the industry, many companies are
struggling to stay afloat. The U.S. government continues to intervene with domestic subsidies,
job-killing tariffs, and buy America policies to protect the declining industry.
But these interventions often come at a high cost to taxpayers, workers, and consumers, Dent said.
Japan-based Nippon Steel is one of the world's leading steel producers.
It's offering a different path forward for U.S. steel.
We share deep military, economic, and cultural ties with Japan,
whose companies have a proven history of responsible investment in the U.S. The reality means that if the deal falls through, U.S. Steel has warned that plant closures
could be on the horizon. The news should be a wake-up call for American taxpayers, steel workers,
consumers, and policymakers, Dent wrote. Why should the U.S. government continue to pour
billions of taxpayer dollars into subsidizing an industry that a reputable, financially sound investor is willing to sustain and revitalize. This isn't about selling out American interests.
It's about taking advantage of the strengths of a friendly ally to build a more resilient
American steel industry. In National Review, Dominic Pino said, the government's steel strategy
stinks. The play here is to reject a very generous offer against the near unanimous wishes of the
people who own the company from a buyer who is promising to do the things you want to happen
because the buyer is from Japan, Pino wrote. America's best friend in Asia, the country whose
prime minister addressed Congress earlier this year and said the people of Japan are with you
side by side to assure the survival of liberty? The current top source of foreign direct investment in the U.S.?
That the U.S. is treaty-bound to defend if attacked?
Where 55,000 U.S. troops are stationed?
Seriously?
Rejecting the investment would probably cost jobs in Pennsylvania.
It would also make it challenging to modernize outdated equipment,
harming the ability of the company to stay competitive in the future, Pino said.
Biden was always going to do what the union bosses wanted
because that's what Democrats do.
But Republican opposition on strategic grounds
is just as nonsensical as opposition on economic grounds.
The supposedly pragmatic realism of populist economics
is anything but.
In Newsweek, Senator Marco Rubio argued
the sale is bad for national security.
It's hard to think of a more poignant metaphor for the de-industrialization of America,
but the sale of U.S. steel isn't just symbolic. It also presents a real danger to our long-term
economic and national security, Rubio wrote. Some of our fellow conservatives scoff at our concerns.
They note that Japan is a close ally to the U.S.
What objection could one possibly have to allowing a friend to control one of our most important steel companies?
Of course, it is true that Japan is an ally.
But even the best of friends don't see eye to eye on everything.
To argue otherwise in the dangerous realm of national security would be foolish.
We must abandon the short-termism and naive globalism so prevalent on both the left and the right.
Far too many seem to think that immediate profits matter,
while long-term strength and sovereignty do not.
But there's a difference between tending to the present
and forgetting about the future,
just as there's a difference between domestic and foreign companies, Rubio said.
We also need a broader understanding of national security.
As COVID-19 revealed,
depending on foreign companies for everything from medicine to missiles may not seem dangerous in peacetime.
But in a time of crisis, it can throw the whole country off balance.
All right, that is it for what the right is saying, which brings us to what the left is saying.
The left mostly supports the deal, with many criticizing Biden for ostensibly opposing it on political grounds. Some say the acquisition would revitalize the steel industry. Others
praise Biden for standing firmly behind the union. The Washington Post editorial board said,
not even winning Pennsylvania can justify this bad move on U.S. steel. praised Biden for standing firmly behind the union. The Washington Post editorial board said,
not even winning Pennsylvania can justify this bad move on U.S. steel. Biden blocking the deal would make little sense, even in the context of Mr. Biden's project to promote domestic
manufacturing. The president has spent billions of dollars in this effort. Under both Mr. Biden
and his predecessor, Donald Trump, the United States has ring-fenced the steel market with
stiff tariffs to stop cheap imports,
attract investment, and stimulate domestic production.
The bid by Nippon Steel,
which promised to inject $2.7 billion of new capital
and supply better technology,
would seem to be a win for those policies, the board wrote.
What's truly inexplicable, though,
is the likely rationale for the ban, national security.
Perhaps in the 1980s, Japan could have been considered a strategic economic threat.
At $7.3 billion, the only U.S. origin alternative offer for U.S. steel by Ohio-based steelmaker
Cleveland Cliffs is less than half of what Nippon is willing to pay for a company that might be
iconic but has slid to 24th largest among the world's producers.
Along with the hostile signal
that it would send to other geopolitical allies
interested in investing in U.S. industry,
the lack of any plausible economic reason
to block this sale leaves politics
as the only explanation, the board said.
Still, the foreseeable negative impacts
of blocking the Nippon Steel bid,
a more concentrated, less competitive U.S. steel industry,
and a damaged alliance with a key Pacific nation,
outweigh this policy's electoral upside.
In Bloomberg, David Fickling wrote,
the past's dead hand weighs on U.S. steel takeover.
The deal has been opposed
since it was first announced in December
on the patently absurd grounds
that ownership of a company from Japan,
one of America's closest allies for eight decades and home to the largest contingent of U.S. troops overseas, poses a national security risk, Fickling said.
Almost no one believes this rationale.
The truth is that steel mills are a perennially protected species that have been deeply bound up with ideas of nationhood for centuries.
Founded by the Gilded Age industrialist Andrew Carnegie, U.S. Steel was America's first billion-dollar company. It built America's railroads,
skyscrapers, and formidable 20th century war machine. Politicians should be encouraging
rather than blocking this process. In their own grudging way, both Nippon Steel and U.S. Steel
are being dragged kicking and screaming into the future. Few places in the U.S. exemplify this
process better than Pittsburgh,
which has long left behind its heavy industrial past
to reinvent itself as a booming center for health care and services, Fickling wrote.
During an election year, it's natural to see politics being played in Pennsylvania.
Let's hope the game ends once the ballots are in, though.
The future of such places will be cleaner, healthier, and more profitable, with better jobs.
In The American Prospect, Robert Kuttner called Biden's opposition to the deal
unprecedented and magnificently pro-union. This move doubles down on Biden's commitment
to rebuild domestic industry and rejection of corporate-driven free trade and his alliance
with the labor movement. There is a process for government evaluation of proposed foreign
takeovers of American companies on national security grounds, Kuttner said.
Biden's stunning move is entirely legitimate. For one thing, a leading Japanese steelmaker
was buying an American producer against a background of steelmaking overcapacity worldwide
and in Japan, so the deal might well lead to reduced U.S. steel production and jobs.
Biden's effective killing of the Nippon deal reopens the possibility of acquisition of U.S. steel by Cliffs
in collaboration with the steel workers.
Veterans of the four-decade struggle to revive a domestic, unionized steel industry
told me they never thought they'd live to see the day, Kuttner wrote.
An acquisition of U.S. steel by Cliffs would be a gain not just for shareholders,
but for stakeholders, union workers, their families, and communities. It's been a long time since we've seen this brand
of capitalism. All right, let's head over to Isaac for his take.
So this is one of those stories where the political alignments are neither predictable nor sensible, which for me makes them very interesting to write about.
Consider, Trump has staunchly opposed the deal, saying he'd kill it on day one no matter what,
while Biden has said he'll block the deal but is is now reportedly reevaluating what he can do.
At the same time,
conservative and liberal pundits broadly support the deal.
Union bosses are opposing it,
but perhaps that's to negotiate for their rank and file,
who, along with local politicians, seem to support it.
There's no real left-right alignment on this,
and figuring out the factions is rather head-spinning.
So I'll throw my hat into the ring. real left-right alignment on this, and figuring out the factions is rather head-spinning. So,
I'll throw my hat into the ring. I'm more supportive of the deal than not. Or at least,
I'm more supportive of the government not interfering in this deal than stepping in
without a leg to stand on. The Tangle staff has some Pittsburgh street credit to throw around
here. I'm a Pennsylvania boy and a University of Pittsburgh alum. Tangle managing editor Ari
Weitzman grew up in Pittsburgh and was recently a homeowner in the city's North Hills. I like to
think we know the city's ethos well and keep up with its politics enough to be able to read the
situation here. And the reality is that Pittsburgh is just no longer a steel town. When you think of
Pittsburgh, you probably think of a rugged, suit-blackened town churning out American steel.
To be sure, those qualities still exist culturally, as they do in many of the towns that comprise the country's rust belt.
But the region's cornerstones have long since shifted.
In a way, Ari's upbringing is representative of this shift.
Ari told me that his mother worked in the Edgar Thompson plant, U.S. Steel's last remaining integrated steel mill in the region.
Her job was to help steel workers transition out of the steel industry with new skills like engine repair, welding, obtaining a commercial driver's license, or even brisket smoking.
Pittsburgh has come a long way since the 1900s and even since the 1980s when U.S. Steel erected the city's tallest building with its own
product. The city's largest industries are now healthcare and banking. The city, Carnegie Mellon
University in particular, is a cradle of robotics innovation. The Pittsburgh Plate Glass Company has
successfully pivoted to becoming a paint company, and the U.S. Steel Tower now has the name of the
region's medical behemoth, UPMC, ablazoned at its top.
This is simply not the city or region aging politicians think it is.
Pennsylvanians are split over whether fracking provides more harm than good
and overwhelmingly want the industry to be regulated.
Yet both campaigns are racing to support fracking unequivocally.
A similar disconnect is apparent in this story.
Over time, Germany and Japan eclipsed the U.S. in steel production, to support fracking unequivocally. A similar disconnect is apparent in this story.
Over time, Germany and Japan eclipsed the U.S.
in steel production, which is now dominated by China,
and Pittsburgh steel workers want labor protections that this deal would provide.
Yet both Democrats and Republicans
are staunchly signaling their opposition.
They're selling an idea of a city, state, and region
that no longer exists, one that they do not know.
60 years ago, U.S. Steel had 340,000 employees and an output of 35 million tons of steel.
In 2022, it employed 15,000 people and just 3,000 in the Pittsburgh area and shipped 11
million tons of steel. The production per employee has gone way up, but gross output and employment have
gone down. That's the world we live in now. Fighting deals like this, which could introduce
new technology and investment in the sector, is not the way to protect jobs or stop the industry
from going where it is very clearly going. Nippon would come in as one of the world's leading steel
producers, with deep pockets, a plan to invest over a billion dollars into mills in Pennsylvania and Indiana, and a commitment to preserving the
legacy of U.S. steel as it stands today, right down to keeping its name and logo. Without a deal,
or with a different one, the path forward could be far worse, one that guarantees mill closures
and job losses even beyond the ones that have already come. For Trump or Biden or Harris, I get the optics. You want to keep this company literally named
U.S. Steel American. You want to appear tough on national security. You want to protect unionized
workers and not risk jobs being cut off or offshored. You want to sell a narrative to
Pennsylvania voters that you are protecting them from corporate overlords or from foreign barons. Indeed, there is a world where Biden or Trump successfully tanks this deal and
U.S. Steel ends up being bought by an American company like Cleveland Cliffs, which is both
American and abashedly pro-union, and part of why many union workers hope for that outcome.
And maybe that would be a better outcome for workers, the state, and the industry.
and maybe that would be a better outcome for workers, the state, and the industry.
But that path is a risk.
U.S. Steel CEO Dave Bird is already threatening to close open mills if the deal collapses as Nippon is offering him the best price per share on the company.
That outcome, a block deal without an alternative, would be catastrophic.
In many ways, Trump and Biden are also construing a false narrative.
There are few arguments against allowing the deal that don't start and end with the company
isn't American, which is a bizarre way to approach a transaction of this magnitude.
This is not China or Russia or Saudi Arabia or a country that poses a legitimate national
security threat.
Nippon Steel, literally Japan Steel, is headquartered in Japan, one of our strongest allies on the planet with a proven track record of investment and economic partnership here.
They are about as trustworthy an international partner as we could find.
It is one thing, of course, for the government to protect us from monopolies, fraudsters, or corporate thuggery.
But this isn't that.
isn't that. This is the government potentially stopping a deal that could rescue a company on some invisible specter of national security concerns, all with the risk that taxpayers
will continue to have to subsidize that company to keep it alive. Of course, I mourn a moment like
this, which seems to mark another turning point in U.S. steel production. Walking through the city
or visiting its steel mills, you will undoubtedly get pangs of great American pride and nostalgia for a different era. Steelworkers built Pittsburgh. Generations of wealth and
prosperity in western Pennsylvania were built on the backs of the steel industry. There is a long
and storied tradition of pride in that era, but it can't last forever. It hasn't. It couldn't.
This is, in no uncertain terms, the free market at work. Ultimately, steel will always be
the industry that built Pittsburgh, and this deal is its best shot to stay relevant. But it doesn't
have to be the industry that builds the future. In fact, it won't be, and it already isn't.
Once you accept that reality, it's easier to accept the deal.
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All right, that is it for my take, which brings us to your questions answered. And
this one today is from a reader in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. it for my take, which brings us to your questions answered. And this one today
is from a reader in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Steve from Pittsburgh said, the question I have
for you, let's say Harris wins and Trump loses. What do you think Trump does? Do we have to redo
this whole thing over again four years from now with Harris and Trump facing off again? Does Trump
give up? So this is a really dangerous question to answer because the common sense answer is yes.
You'd think Trump would give up
and stop running for president.
How could any candidate come back
and be their party's nominee again
with a resume like the one Trump would have
in this situation in 2028?
Lost the presidential election,
denied the results of that election,
set the agenda of the party,
and handpicked many candidates
to a disappointing performance in the 2022 midterms. Convicted of sexual assault in a civil case, convicted of
felony charges, lost the second presidential election in 2024 under indictment and three
other distinct federal cases, he will be the oldest ever presidential candidate at 82 years
old at the time of the 2028 election. And yet, all of that, with the exception of the second
election loss and his exact age, is already true right now. And he's still the unquestioned leader
of the party, still setting the agenda, still dominating the entire Republican field in primary
races, and still running in a dead heat against the Democratic Party's handpicked candidate.
Add in the two assassination attempts, which somehow haven't seemed to register as the
big deals that they are, and you see a candidate who is undeterrable, one that the political class
seems incapable of moving away from or defeating. That, in no small part, is part of Trump's appeal.
Indeed, it is core to it. It's obvious that Democrats despise him. It's obvious that many
Republicans despise him too. But the fact that he continues to barrel forward and successfully mold the party to his liking time and time again, speaking for a
large swath of Americans who continue to feel unheard, it's what makes him so magnetic. All
this is to say, despite all the context, if Trump loses in 2024, I just don't think 2028 would be
any different at all. I wrote Donald Trump's political obituary on January 6th
as we were living through it.
I thought there was no way he'd recover, but he did.
I was about as wrong as I could be.
And maybe he loses in 2024
and doesn't become the nominee again in 2028.
But really, at this point, would you bet against it?
All right, that is it for today's reader questions.
I'm gonna send it back to John for the rest of the pod, and I'll see you guys tomorrow. Peace.
Thanks, Isaac. Here's your under the radar story for today, folks.
For the first time in four years, inflation adjusted incomes for middle income American
households rose in 2023, according to new census data that came out last week.
according to new census data that came out last week.
In 2023, the median household earned $80,610, up 4% from 2022 after adjusting for inflation,
with after-tax median income rising by 3.7%. However, median household income is still slightly below the 2019 record levels in real terms,
when it hit $81,210 in 2023. Additionally, the census report shows
that inflation-adjusted wage gains were highest among the low earners. Axios has this story,
and there's a link in today's episode description. All right, next up is our numbers section.
All right, next up is our numbers section.
U.S. Steel's market cap as of September 17th is $8.18 billion.
Nippon Steel's market cap as of September 17th is $19.91 billion.
The approximate number of workers employed by U.S. Steel in 2024 is 20,000.
The approximate number of Pittsburgh workers employed by the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center at the end of 2021 is 53,000. The total employment in the iron and steel mills and ferroalloy production industries in the U.S. in 1988 was 189,800. The total employment in the iron and steel mills and
ferroalloy production industries in the U.S. in 2023 is 83,600. The amount in million metric tons of steel production in the U.S. in 2006
was $98.2. And the amount in million metric tons of steel production in the U.S. in 2022 is $82.
And last but not least, our Have a Nice Day story. John Bon Jovi, New Jersey legend and frontman of
the rock band Bon Jovi, recently helped a and frontman of the rock band Bon Jovi,
recently helped a woman in crisis
off the ledge of a Nashville bridge.
While filming a scene for a music video,
Bon Jovi and a production assistant
noticed the woman on the bridge's precipice.
Together, they were able to help her
back away from the edge.
Nashville Police Chief John Drake
said of the incident
that it takes all of us
to help keep each other safe.
The Washington Post has this story,
and there's a link in today's episode description. All right, everybody, that is it for today's
episode. As always, if you'd like to support our work, please go to retangle.com and sign up for
a membership. We'll be right back here tomorrow. For Isaac and the rest of the crew, this is John
Lowell signing off. Have a great day, y'all. Peace. Our podcast is written by me, Isaac Saul,
and edited and engineered by Duke Thomas.
Our script is edited by Ari Weitzman,
Will Kabak, Daily Saul, and Sean Brady.
The logo for our podcast was made by Magdalena Bokova,
who is also our social media manager.
The music for the podcast was produced by Diet75.
And if you're looking for more from Tangle,
please go check out our website at readtangle.com