Tangle - The presidential race in Michigan
Episode Date: October 28, 2024A week out from Election Day, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are neck and neck in the critical battleground state. Harris held a moderate polling lead over Trump in Mic...higan after she replaced President Joe Biden on the Democratic ticket, but FiveThirtyEight’s polling average now has her leading by just 0.4 points. Harris’s struggles are due in part to declining support among Arab American voters in Michigan, who have been critical of the Biden administration’s handling of the war in Gaza.Ad-free podcasts are here!Many listeners have been asking for an ad-free version of this podcast that they could subscribe to — and we finally launched it. You can go to tanglemedia.supercast.com to sign up!You can read today's podcast here, our “Under the Radar” story here and today’s “Have a nice day” story here.Check out Episode 7 of our podcast series, The Undecideds. Please give us a 5-star rating and leave a comment!Take the survey: Who do you think will win Michigan? Let us knowYou can subscribe to Tangle by clicking here or drop something in our tip jar by clicking here. Our podcast is written by Isaac Saul and edited and engineered by Dewey Thomas. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet 75. Our newsletter is edited by Managing Editor Ari Weitzman, Will Kaback, Bailey Saul, Sean Brady, and produced in conjunction with Tangle’s social media manager Magdalena Bokowa, who also created our logo. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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Based on Charles Yu's award-winning book,
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From executive producer Isaac Saul, this is Tangle. spectrum, some independent thinking, and a little bit of Isaac's take. I am your host, John Long, filling in for Isaac. And today we are going to be covering the state of the
presidential race in Michigan. We're going to talk about how the two candidates are doing
in one of the most consequential battleground states in this election. Before we get started,
we're trying something a little crazy this week. So I wanted to make you all aware.
Basically, there's eight days until the election.
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All right, with that out of the way,
let's jump into today's quick hits. First up, Israel attacked Iranian military sites and air
defense systems protecting several oil and petrochemical refineries in retaliation for
Iran's ballistic missile attack on Israel earlier this month.
Number two, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's ruling coalition lost its majority in Japan's lower house,
the coalition's worst performance in a parliamentary election since 2009.
Ishiba had called the snap election in an attempt to shore up support following a series of financial scandals.
up support following a series of financial scandals. Separately, Georgian President Salome Zarubishvili said that she would not recognize the results of the country's parliamentary vote,
alleging Russian interference to help the ruling party Georgian Dream. Number three, sales of new
single-family homes in the U.S. increased 4.1 percent in September to the highest sale rate in
a year. The median sales price remains similar to the year
prior at $426,300. Number four, President Joe Biden apologized for the U.S. government's role
in the Indian boarding school system, which the federal government operated for over 150 years.
Biden said the schools used abusive practices on students and destroyed Native American culture
and language.
And number five, the owner and operator of the cargo ship that crashed into Baltimore's Francis Scott Key Bridge in March agreed to pay $102 million to settle a lawsuit brought
by the U.S. Department of Justice.
It's the second to last weekend before Election Day and the presidential candidates are spending all their time trying to get votes in Michigan.
I'm here today with a message of hope for all Americans with your vote in this election.
It is a people-powered campaign. We will win because we know what we stand for,
so we know what to fight for.
A week out from Election Day,
Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump
are neck and neck in the critical battleground state of Michigan.
Harris held a moderate polling lead over Trump in Michigan
after she replaced President Joe Biden on the Democratic ticket.
The 538's polling average now has her leading by just 0.4 points. Harris's struggles are due in
part to declining support among Arab-American voters in Michigan who have been critical of
the Biden administration's handling of the war in Gaza. Michigan has an Arab-American population of
nearly 400,000, mostly concentrated outside Detroit, and this block was
very key to Biden's victory in the state in 2020. These voters typically lean Democratic, but have
been outspoken against Biden and Harris's support for Israel in its war against Hamas. This criticism
has led many community leaders to withhold support for Harris or, in some cases, endorse Trump.
Earlier this month, the Dearborn, Michigan-based Arab American PAC declined to
endorse Harris or Trump, as did the Uncommitted National Movement, a Michigan-based pro-Palestinian
group that advocated for a protest non-vote against Biden in the Democratic primary.
Meanwhile, on Saturday, Trump held a rally in Detroit that featured several Muslim and
Arab American leaders who have endorsed him. The Biden administration has repeatedly affirmed its support for Israel in the years since Hamas's October 7th attack,
while working to broker a ceasefire between the two sides. On the campaign trail, Harris has
similarly maintained her support for Israel, but has also spoken about the plight of Palestinians
in Gaza. Earlier this month, Harris reaffirmed her call for a ceasefire and said it was critically
important to acknowledge the tragedy of what has happened in Gaza
in terms of the extraordinary number of innocent Palestinians that have been killed.
Meanwhile, Jill Stein, the Green Party's presidential candidate,
has sought to capitalize on Arab voters' disaffection with Harris and the Democrats
with a strong anti-war message that characterizes Israel's actions in Gaza as genocide.
Stein is polling at just 1% nationally and 4% with Arab Americans,
but an August poll by the Council on American-Islamic Relations
found that 40% of Muslim voters in Michigan supported her candidacy.
Trump, for his part, has not wavered from his pro-Israel stance,
but he has tried to appeal to Arab American voters by arguing he would bring
peace to the region as president. While Trump implemented a travel ban on select Muslim
majority countries as president, Muslim American leaders in Michigan have suggested that voters in
their community may support the former president as a means of punishing the Biden administration
for its handling of the war. Today, we'll look at arguments from the right and the left about the state of the race in Michigan
with a focus on how Arab and Muslim Americans
could impact the results, and then Isaac's take.
We'll be right back after this quick break.
Based on Charles Yu's award-winning book, We'll be right back after this quick break. Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight.
Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. From Searchlight Pictures comes A Real Pain, one of the most moving and funny films of the year.
Written and directed by Oscar-nominated Jesse Eisenberg and starring Eisenberg and Emmy Award winner Kieran Culkin,
A Real Pain is a comedy about mismatched cousins who reunite for a tour
through Poland to honor their beloved grandmother. The adventure takes a turn when the pair's old
tensions resurface against the backdrop of their family history. A Real Pain was one of the
buzziest titles at Sundance Film Festival this year, garnering rave reviews and acclaim from
both critics and audiences alike. See A Real Pain only in theaters November 15th.
All right, first up, let's start with what the right is saying. The right thinks Trump is poised for a strong showing in Michigan thanks to Biden's handling of the war in Gaza. Some say even a small
slip in Arab-American support for Harris could cost her the state.
Others praise Trump for the success of his ground game in Michigan.
In PJ Media, Rick Moran wrote about Trump's ace in the hole in Michigan.
Michigan is as close as it gets in the presidential race.
Both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are tied at 47.3%, but Trump may have an ace in the hole.
There are 200,000 Arab voters in Michigan.
Biden got more than 65% of that vote in 2020, Moran said.
But 2024 is going to be a lot different.
A new poll by Arab News YouGov found Trump leading the Democratic nominee 45 to 43%,
with 4% supporting Green Party candidate Jill Stein
and 6% undecided.
That's a lot of voters that Harris won't have.
In addition, the enthusiasm
level of Arab Americans is way down compared to 2020. Biden's handling of the Arab American
problem may go down in history as the absolute most incompetent display of political acumen in
American history. Yes, there was a war, but there are ways to finesse the problem and keep the
political damage to a minimum, Moran wrote. Listen to these voters and tell me that Biden couldn't have handled it better.
I cannot emphasize my disgust with the current administration and their lack of leadership,
their lack of empathy toward the Palestinian people,
their lack of empathy toward the Lebanese people, said Adul Hakim al-Sadah, 62,
chair of the Yemeni American Democratic Caucus, who declined to specify how he'll be voting.
No voter should ever get that angry at a candidate.
In hot air, John Sexton said,
Michigan is a real problem for Harris.
Former President Trump held a rally today in Novi, Michigan.
During that rally, he discussed a meeting
he'd held earlier in the day with representatives
of Arab American and Muslim American groups.
Then several of the leaders came on stage and endorsed him during the rally, Sexton wrote.
I think it has been clear to everyone for weeks that this represents a real problem
for the Harris campaign. Unfortunately for her, there's nothing she can do.
She can't come out and undermine the sitting president as part of his administration.
She just has to stick with the hand that she's been dealt. Polls show Harris can't afford to lose these voters, but it's too late to turn things around. Some will vote for Stein,
some will stay home, and there are some who are moving toward Trump, Sexton said. Of course,
some Arab Americans will hold their nose and still vote for Harris, but this year it may not be
enough. Many Arab and Muslim Americans in Michigan appear to have given up on the Democrats this year.
As Trump said today at his rally, they could turn the election one way or another.
In the Daily Caller, Mary Rook assessed Trump's latest moves in Michigan.
There is no sugarcoating the fact that Vice President Kamala Harris needs to win Michigan like we need to breathe air,
but former President Donald Trump is mounting an effort in the state that could end her election chances.
But former President Donald Trump is mounting an effort in the state that could end her election chances.
Several issues are compounding against Harris in Michigan, making her path to victory in the state rocky, Rook said.
Trump's campaign is targeting low-propensity voters as part of a massive ground game operation to win back Michigan.
Typically, low-propensity voters don't vote in every election and have to be sought out and persuaded to show up. The campaign is working on getting this massive voting bloc involved in the 2024 election. Another blow to Harris is the Teamsters union's refusal
to back her campaign after years of dutifully supporting Democratic presidential candidates.
While the union didn't support Trump either, which would have solidified the blow against Harris,
its internal polling shows that Trump is overwhelmingly the preferred candidate among
its members, Rooks said. Michigan is a blue-collar state with about 245,000 active and retired Teamsters union members.
The internal Teamsters poll shows her campaign is not turning these people into Harris voters.
In fact, she's losing ground that Democrats had gained over the past decade.
All right, that is it for what the right is saying,
which brings us to what the left is saying.
The left fears that Harris' declining support with Muslim and Arab Americans will cost her Michigan.
Some say activists' efforts to punish Harris
for her stance on the war will be self-defeating.
Others advise Muslim and Arab Americans
to support Harris despite their legitimate concerns.
In the Washington Post, Shadi Hamid argued
Harris's neglect has allowed Trump
to make gains with Muslim and Arab Americans.
The fracture between Muslims and Arab Americans
in the Democratic Party has reached a breaking point.
If recent surveys are any indication,
most will not be voting for Kamala Harris,
suggesting a stark shift just years after they had become a key Democratic Party constituency
during the Trump years, Hamid said.
In my conversations with Arabs and Muslims across the country,
the mood has become dark and despairing.
They see how the Democratic Party has ignored the preferences of its own members,
77% of whom believe the United States should not send weapons to Israel.
It is true that Harris has expressed sympathy for Palestinians in a way that Biden has not. Yet, with few exceptions,
she has avoided addressing Arab Americans directly. She finally did so last week in Michigan,
but indicated no change in approach. She acknowledged the suffering of Palestinians,
but made no mention of who caused it, Hamid wrote. I hope Kamala Harris wins, but she's not making
it easy for Arab and Muslim leaders who would otherwise more forcefully advocate on her behalf. Hamid wrote, In MSNBC, Zeeshan Aleem said,
Pro-Palestinian efforts to rally behind Jill Stein will backfire.
I'm sympathetic to why a non-trivial number of voters on the left are tempted to vote for Stein.
As I've written previously, human rights observers and scholars of genocide, a number
of them Israeli, have characterized Israel's ongoing conduct in Gaza as perpetrating genocide.
That the U.S. is backing this is unconscionable, Aleem wrote.
And yet, as frightening as it is to contemplate, things could still get worse if Trump is elected
president again.
Even though Biden's pressure on Netanyahu has been wholly inadequate, his administration's backroom negotiations with Netanyahu over letting more aid
into Gaza has probably saved lives. By contrast, Trump hasn't signaled that he views anything
Israel has done as wrong or that he would put any limits on Netanyahu. When he was in office,
he recognized Israel's annexation of the Golan Heights, moved the U.S. embassy in Israel to
Jerusalem, signaling a break from long-held U.S. neutrality on recognizing Israel's annexation of the Golan Heights, moved the U.S. embassy in Israel to Jerusalem,
signaling a break from long-held U.S. neutrality
on recognizing Israel's capital,
and encouraged Netanyahu to pursue West Bank settlements.
Trump isn't committed to a two-state solution, Alim said.
Palestinian civilian lives aren't an abstract cause.
They are real and precious.
Reducing harm is not just an ethical consideration,
but an ethical imperative,
and working to ensure the election of Trump would violate that imperative.
In the Detroit Free Press, Ismail Ahmed wrote,
I'm an Arab American activist. We have no choice but to vote for Kamala Harris.
I've supported those in our community and many others in Michigan and around the nation
who voted uncommitted in Democratic primaries and lobbied the Biden administration to do more, Ahmed said. Frankly, there has not been the progress we
would have liked to see. Vice President Kamala Harris, now the Democratic presidential nominee,
has indeed been more sympathetic, but has yet to put more on the table. It is no wonder that many
of my community are considering sitting out this election or wasting their vote on a third party
that cannot possibly win. But let me say it plainly. We have no choice but to vote for Kamala Harris.
Trump refuses to acknowledge the occupation of Palestinian lands, opposes an independent
Palestinian state, and steadfastly supports Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu,
and has not decried his bloody approach to Gaza, Ahmed wrote. On the other hand,
Kamala Harris is calling for a ceasefire and a two-state solution with equal rights for both peoples. I've made my choice. I will vote
democratic, not for the perfect good, but for a better way of life and for a chance to fight for
peace. All right, that is it for what the right and the left are saying, which brings us to Isaac's take.
Just a reminder that this is Isaac's opinion, and I'm reading it in the first person.
So let me start by stating the obvious.
This election is close.
Majority control of the Senate will be close, and control of the House will be close,
and the two candidates running for the White House have been in a dead heat for weeks down to the final stretch.
In that environment, it shouldn't really come as much of a surprise that both of the major candidates are campaigning hard in one of the most crucial swing states,
but the reasons that are bringing Harris to push hard in Michigan right now are certainly an alarm bell, and it's ringing loud and clear.
Two Fridays ago, I shared my predictions for the 2024 election.
In that edition, I predicted Harris
was on track to lose Michigan.
Here's why.
I think the Arab American community
and pro-Palestinian protesters are gaining genuine momentum
to protest Harris by sitting out or voting third party.
Throw in a little Jill Stein in an already close race
and Democrats suddenly have a serious problem.
Michigan is on a razor's edge in a normal year, and this year Harris is facing real opposition from liberals.
The polls showed the state is a coin toss, and the polls have rarely broken toward Democrats in recent presidential elections.
Democratic Representative Alyssa Slotkin's warning that Harris was underwater in internal polling solidified my sense that she's going to lose this state.
Nothing that's happened since has changed my mind about that prediction. I've heard all the arguments coming
from the left about why Harris is actually poised to keep the state blue, but I don't find any of
them convincing. Point. The situation is not as bad as it seems. Early voting data is inconclusive,
not damning, and Harris will lean on her ground game to provide an edge in the last week of the
race. Counterpoint.
I agree that the data so far is inconclusive,
but the best counterpoint is that
it's not as bad as it seems.
That means it is still at least not very rosy.
Harris could still push through Michigan,
but she's the one playing defense.
Remember, Trump is dialing up the pressure there too.
Point.
Republicans had been flooding the zone
with partisan polls that show a closer race
than it actually is, but new polls tell a different story.
Over the weekend, a Bloomberg Morning Consult poll
showed Harris up by three,
and another poll from Quinnipiac showed the same thing.
Counterpoint, we saw in 2020 that the polls were skewed
in favor of Biden to the point where polling averages
showed him up over Trump by eight points in Michigan
on election day, and he ended up winning by less than three. If the mainstream polls have the same bias this year,
Harris's lead will evaporate. Even if partisan polls have skewed the polling averages,
some left-leaning pollsters are still showing a dead heat. Point. Arab American and Muslim
voters are flexing their muscle and trying to exert maximum pressure on Democrats,
but there is no way voters, whose main issue is the safety of civilians in Gaza in opposition to the worst actions of the
Israeli military, are going to mark their ballots for Donald Trump. Counterpoint? There absolutely
is. A poll of Arab American voters last week showed Trump up two points over Harris. Amir
Ghalib, the mayor of Hamtramck, Michigan, the first city in the country to have an all-Muslim city council,
just endorsed Donald Trump.
These voters are showing that if Kamala Harris
doesn't distance herself from Biden on the war in Gaza,
they're willing to make a cost to her the White House.
They really don't know where to go.
It's like somebody hit them with a two-by-four
right on their head, said Osama Siblani,
who publishes an Arab-American newspaper
based in Dearborn, Michigan.
So now they're in total disarray.
They may vote Donald Trump just to punish Biden and Harris, just to say, look what you've
done.
I can't overstate how huge of a gift it is to the Trump campaign that he doesn't have
to stand behind his record on Palestine and Michigan.
But instead, Harris has to try to win these voters while retaining moderates.
Remember, Americans are deeply divided on this conflict.
And while the situation is far more complex
than a simple binary,
plenty of voters will see a statement
sympathetic to one side of the conflict
as fundamentally oppositional to the other.
Can you imagine if Donald Trump,
who as president implemented a travel ban
from several Muslim-majority countries,
were trying to appeal to voters
on both sides of the issue instead of Harris?
Harris has been tough to pin down on this issue, but Trump has not.
As president, Trump moved the U.S. embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem,
recognized Israeli control over the Golan Heights,
and was called by Benjamin Netanyahu,
the greatest friend Israel has ever had in the White House.
As a candidate, Trump has consistently voiced his support of Israel's right to defend itself
and said he'd deport anti-Israel protesters. During the Democratic primary in Michigan, I praised the uncommitted
vote for smart politics. They effectively leveraged their position to put it front and
center in this election, which is what any political interest group should be doing.
Harris has tried to appease them in several different ways, both rhetorically and through
actions like choosing a running mate who wants to end the war. Now, though, Harris has been doing more to publicly side with Israel than she had before
becoming the nominee, and the uncommitted vote is letting her know that she shouldn't
take their support for granted.
And that totally makes sense to me.
That doesn't mean I think it is the right move for their cause in the long term, though.
There is no way that voters concerned with the safety of Gazans will be able to exert
more pressure on a President Trump than a President Harris.
I understand why they feel hopeless
with the current administration,
but I also don't see a world
in which they get anything they want with Trump.
It's genuinely hard to know
how many Democratic-leaning voters
whose primary issue is Gaza
will actually cast their votes for Jill Stein or Trump,
but the polling certainly indicates
it'll be enough to matter.
If these voters can tip the scales in Michigan, that could very'll be enough to matter. If these voters can tip the
scales in Michigan, that could very well be enough to decide the entire election.
We'll be right back after this quick break.
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Come on.
Hey, you're going the wrong way.
Feeling distracted?
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A message from the Government of Canada.
From Searchlight Pictures comes A Real Pain,
one of the most moving and funny films of the year.
Written and directed by Oscar-nominated Jesse Eisenberg
and starring Eisenberg and Emmy Award winner Kieran Culkin,
A Real Pain is a comedy about mismatched cousins
who reunite for
a tour through Poland to honor their beloved grandmother. The adventure takes a turn when
the pair's old tensions resurface against the backdrop of their family history. A Real Pain
was one of the buzziest titles at Sundance Film Festival this year, garnering rave reviews and
acclaim from both critics and audiences alike. See A Real Pain only in theaters November 15th.
Based on Charles Yu's award-winning book,
Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu,
a background character trapped in a police procedural
who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown.
When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime,
Willis begins to unravel a criminal web,
his family's buried history,
and what it feels like to be in the spotlight.
Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+.
All right, that is it for Isaac's Take, which brings us to your questions answered.
This question comes from Mandy B. in Orange County, California.
Mandy asks, why doesn't the government just change the federal student loan policy to
an interest-free loan versus canceling it?
Everyone agrees to borrow the money, so they were prepared to pay it back anyways.
Why is the only option to completely forgive instead of meeting in the middle?
Okay, Isaac says, first off, that's an awesome idea.
I love it.
Instead of fully canceling federal student
loans, debt holders still have to repay the principal and not leave the taxpayer holding
the bag. At the same time, they'll get a measure of forgiveness that will help them climb out of
debt, creating positive downward stream effects for the economy. Even cutting the interest rate
to 1 or 2% would be huge. But there are two problems I see with this. First, the legal issue.
It might be strange, but it's probably harder to find justification in the law for a president
to adjust the interest rate of student loans than it is to forgive loans entirely.
Remember that President Biden used the 2003 HEROES Act, which gives the president authority
to cancel student debts during a national emergency, to justify his attempt to cancel
student loans en masse during the COVID-19 pandemic,
and that the Supreme Court ultimately struck that attempt down.
The interest of federal loans is defined by law,
and there is nothing in that law
granting the executive branch discretion to override that rate.
So if this were to happen, it would require an act of Congress,
and given the partisan divide of the legislature,
the chances of that happening are basically non-existent.
Second, even if Congress were to pass a law to bring the interest rate on their loans
to zero, it may not actually help as many people as you think.
Many student loan debtors refinance their loans with other institutions.
That wouldn't affect whatever the new rate a debt holder refinanced their loan at.
All right, that is it for your questions answered, which brings us to our under-the-radar story. Elections in the U.S. are far more expensive than in other industrialized democracies,
and the 2024 race is no exception. Federal election spending is expected to reach $15.9
billion this cycle, the highest figure in U.S. history.
On average, U.S. elections cost 40 times more per person than elections in the U.K. or Germany.
Experts say U.S. elections are more costly
because of the funds needed to reach voters
in expensive media markets
and more relaxed campaign finance regulation,
as U.S. courts have consistently ruled
that contributions are speech that cannot be limited.
Additionally, many European nations' elections feature candidates chosen by the parties, whereas the United States uses the
primary system to select candidates, further driving up election spending. The Wall Street
Journal has this story, and there's a link in today's episode description.
All right, next up is our numbers section. Donald Trump's lead over Kamala Harris among Arab Americans is 45 to 43 percent,
according to an October 2024 Arab News YouGov poll.
The percentage of Arab Americans who believe Trump is most likely to resolve the Israel-Palestine conflict as president is 39 percent.
The percentage of Arab Americans who believe Harris is most likely to resolve the Israel-Palestine conflict as president is 33%.
The percentage of Arab Americans who believe Trump and Harris, respectively, would be better for the Middle East in general as president is 38% and 38%.
The percentage of eligible Arab American voters who plan to participate in the 2024 election is 87%.
election is 87%. The number of voters in Michigan's Democratic Party who cast their ballots for uncommitted was 101,623, 13.2% of the total vote. Joe Biden's margin of victory
over Donald Trump in Michigan in 2020 was 154,188, and Trump's margin of victory over
Hillary Clinton in Michigan in 2016 was 10,704.
All right, and last but not least, our Have a Nice Day story.
An estimated 1.2 million patients are affected by mistaken drug administration each year,
costing the healthcare system approximately $5.1 billion.
Recently, a team of researchers based at the University of Washington School of Medicine
developed a wearable camera to address this issue.
Software in the camera uses AI to recognize vials before they are injected into a patient,
providing a warning if it is the wrong medication.
Dr. Kelly Michelson, who co-authored the paper detailing the research, said,
The thought of being able to help patients in real time or to prevent a medication error before it happens is very powerful. UW Medicine has this story, and there's a link in today's
episode description. All right, everybody, that is it for today's episode. As always,
if you'd like to support our work, please go to readtangle.com and sign up for a membership.
And you can go to tanglemedia.supercast.com to sign up for a premium podcast membership,
which gets you ad-free podcasts, Friday podcasts, Sunday podcasts, interviews, and so much more. Don't forget,
we're doing a subscription drive this week to try and get 2,000 new paid subscribers,
and details are in today's newsletter. We'll be right back here tomorrow. For Isaac and the rest
of the crew, this is John Maul signing off. Have a great day, y'all. Peace.
Our podcast is written by me, Isaac Saul, and edited and engineered by Dink Thomas.
Our script is edited by Ari Weitzman,
Will Kabak, Bailey Saul, and Sean Brady.
The logo for our podcast was made by Magdalena Pakova,
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