Tangle - The prisoner swap with Russia.

Starting point is 00:00:00 The flu remains a serious disease. Last season, over 102,000 influenza cases have been reported across Canada, which is nearly double the historic average of 52,000 cases. What can you do this flu season? Talk to your pharmacist or doctor about getting a flu shot. Consider FluCellVax Quad and help protect yourself from the flu. It's the first cell-based flu vaccine authorized in Canada for ages 6 months and older, and it may be available for free in your province. Side effects and allergic reactions can occur, and 100% protection is not guaranteed. Learn more at flucellvax.ca. Based on Charles Yu's award-winning book, Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu, a background character trapped in a police

Starting point is 00:00:39 procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. From executive producer Isaac Saul,

Starting point is 00:01:03 this is Tangle. Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening, and welcome to the Tangle podcast, the place we get views from across the political spectrum, some independent thinking, and a little bit of my take. place we get views from across the political spectrum, some independent thinking, and a little bit of my take. I'm your host, Isaac Saltland. On today's episode, we're going to be talking about the prisoner swap between the United States and Russia. A pretty big story happened toward the end of last week, so we didn't get to jump in on it right away, but there's a lot here. It's mostly good news, I think, but we're going to talk a bit about the criticism and all that as well. Also, heads up, in case you missed it, on Friday, we released a five-year anniversary newsletter, which included some of our favorite reader essays.

Starting point is 00:01:54 We've been taking reader submissions over the last year or two to Tangle, and we republished and promoted 10 of our favorite reader essays. So I definitely encourage you guys to go check those out. And yeah, without further ado, I'm going to pass it over to John and I'll be back for my take. Thank you, Isaac, and welcome, everybody. Hope you had a fantastic weekend. Here are your quick hits for today. First up, U.S. employers added 114,000 jobs in July, fewer than economists expected. Separately, concerns about a slowing U.S. economy triggered a global stock sell-off that accelerated on Monday. Number two, Vice President Kamala Harris met with finalists to be her running mate over the weekend and is expected to announce her decision on Monday. Separately, Harris raised $310 million in July,

Starting point is 00:02:51 two-thirds of which came from first-time donors. Former President Trump raised $138.7 million during the same period. Number three, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin overrode a plea agreement reached for the accused masterminds of the 9-11 terrorist attacks, reinstating their cases as death penalty eligible. Separately, the U.S. formally recognized Edmundo Gonzalez as the winner of Venezuela's contested presidential election. Number four, an Israeli airstrike reportedly killed over 30 people at two Gaza schools where some Gazans were sheltering. Israel confirmed the strikes, saying the schools were being used as Hamas command and control centers. Israel also conducted a rare airstrike in the West Bank, killing nine Hamas militants. And number five, several nations,

Starting point is 00:03:37 including the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and France, urged their citizens to evacuate Lebanon over concerns over a wider regional war with Israel. We begin tonight with that historic prisoner exchange. At this hour, several Americans are on their way home after a landmark multinational deal involving the U. At this hour, several Americans are on their way home after a landmark multinational deal involving the U.S., Russia, and other American allies. President Biden celebrating what he described

Starting point is 00:04:13 as a feat of diplomacy, 24 prisoners changing hands, the White House calling it the most complicated swap in history. The U.S. says they were each held for crimes they did not commit. Three returned to their families in the United States Thursday. One is flying to Germany. It was a complicated deal with Russia, including swaps with Germany and mediation by Turkey. In addition to the four Americans, three Germans and nine Russian political prisoners were also freed. In total, 24 prisoners

Starting point is 00:04:43 are out from behind bars, including eight Russians held in Western nations. So for anyone who questions whether allies matter, they do. They matter. Today is a powerful example of why it's vital to have friends in this world, friends you can trust, work with, and depend upon, especially on matters of great consequence and sensitivity like this. Our alliances make our people safer. And we began to see that again today. On Thursday, the Biden administration announced a prisoner exchange between several European

Starting point is 00:05:20 nations, the U.S. and Russia, to secure the release of three U.S. citizens, one U.S. legal resident, and 12 others. Eight prisoners were sent back to Russia in return, three of whom had been held in the U.S. The swap was the largest of its kind since the Cold War, involving seven countries and 24 prisoners. The three Americans released were journalist Evan Gershkovich, former U.S. Marine Paul Whelan,

Starting point is 00:05:43 and Russian-American journalist Alsu Kermesheva. Gershkovich was arrested in March of 2023 on espionage charges while reporting on Russia's invasion of Ukraine for the Wall Street Journal, which denied the charges, and the U.S. State Department classified him as wrongfully detained. In July of 2024, Gershkovich was convicted of espionage and sentenced to 16 years in prison. We previously covered Gershkovich's arrest, and there's a link for that coverage in today's episode description. Whelan was detained in Russia in 2018 on suspicion of spying, and was serving a 16-year sentence for an espionage conviction in 2020. Whelan's family has maintained that he was visiting Russia for a friend's wedding party, and the State Department had also classified him as wrongfully detained. Kermesheva, a Prague-based editor, was initially

Starting point is 00:06:29 prevented from leaving Russia in June of 2023 for failing to register her U.S. passport, then arrested in October of 2023 on charges of spreading false information about Russia's military. She was convicted in July of 2024 and sentenced to over six years in prison. Others released from Russia include Russian journalist Vladimir Karamurza, a U.S. resident and one of the most visible opposition figures to Russian President Vladimir Putin. Karamurza was arrested for treason shortly after returning to Russia in April 2022 for speaking out against the war in Ukraine while in the United States. The other 12 prisoners held by Russia were political dissidents, and they were released to Germany. Discussions for the swap had included Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny before his death in a Russian prison in February. Of the eight prisoners released to Russia, the most notable was Vadim Krasikov,

Starting point is 00:07:19 a former high-ranking Russian agent who was serving a life sentence in Germany for assassinating a Chechen separatist in Berlin. The Wall Street Journal reported that Krasikov, a longtime Putin ally, was central to negotiations in the prisoner swap. The other Russians released had known or suspected ties to Russian intelligence and were imprisoned in the U.S., Norway, Poland, and Slovenia. The last high-profile prisoner exchange between the U.S. and Russia came in 2022, when Russia swapped U.S. basketball player Brittany Grinner, who was arrested for possessing cannabis oil while traveling to Russia, for convicted arms dealer Victor Bout. President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris greeted Gershkovich, Whelan, and Kermesheva when they arrived back in the U.S. on Thursday. Some of these women and men have been unjustly held for years.

Starting point is 00:08:09 They've all endured unimaginable suffering and uncertainty. Today, their agony is over, Biden said in a statement. The president reportedly finalized the deal about an hour before announcing he would drop his bid for re-election on July 21st. Today, we'll explore responses to the deal from the left and the right, and then Isaac's take. We'll be right back after this quick commercial break. The flu remains a serious disease. Last season, over 102,000 influenza cases have been reported across Canada, which is nearly double the historic average of 52,000 cases. What can you do this flu season? Talk to your pharmacist or doctor about getting a flu shot.

Starting point is 00:08:54 Consider FluCellVax Quad and help protect yourself from the flu. It's the first cell-based flu vaccine authorized in Canada for ages six months and older, and it may be available for free in your province. Side effects and allergic reactions can occur, and 100% protection is not guaranteed. Learn more at flucellvax.ca. Based on Charles Yu's award-winning book, Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu,

Starting point is 00:09:17 a background character trapped in a police procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. First, let's start with some agreement. Both sides celebrate the prisoner's release and commend the efforts of the Biden administration to negotiate the swap. Writers on the left and the right also share concerns that Putin's strategy of wrongfully detaining Americans and political dissidents will continue and suggest Biden has set a risky precedent with this deal. All right, let's move on to what the left is saying. The left cheers the prisoner's return but worries about the cost of bringing them home. Some say the exchange shows Biden is committed to acting on unresolved issues before the end of his term. Others say Putin may have made the deal

Starting point is 00:10:14 because he thinks Trump will lose the election. In the New York Times, Serge Shmaiman wrote, the joyful release of Evan Gershkovich came at a high price. Seizing Gershkovich secured the Kremlin a hostage, but seizing a reporter for a major American publication also sent a signal to those foreign reporters who remain in Russia that real journalism under this regime is really dangerous, and not just for homegrown media, which has been thoroughly muzzled and driven into exile, Shmaiman said. Putin came to power after the domestic and foreign press had thrown off the muzzles of the Soviet era, and he proceeded, especially since the invasion of Ukraine, to deliberately crush it. Many foreign journalists now try to report from outside Russia.

Starting point is 00:10:55 Gershkovich tried valiantly to report from within and paid a heavy price. Yet even as we celebrate the liberation of these innocent people, it is hard to avoid the troubling fact that Putin has successfully used their detentions to get real criminals out of prisons where they belong, most notably Vadim Krasikov, a Russian assassin serving a life sentence in Germany. Biden was right to do everything he could to bring back wrongfully imprisoned Americans, but the readiness of authoritarian states like Russia to seize innocent foreigners as hostages is galling. In Bloomberg, Andreas Kluth suggested the prisoner swap will be Biden's last big win. Maybe this is what Biden had in mind

Starting point is 00:11:32 when, in passing the Democratic baton in the presidential race to Kamala Harris, he said that he would use his remaining time in office to take care of as much unfinished business as he can, Kluth said. Biden has six months to go, fully one-eighth of his term. That still makes for an unusually long lame duck period, as it's called. The pessimistic take is that this leaves a power vacuum in the White House, which rogue actors abroad, from allies such as Israel to foes such as North Korea, could try to exploit. The optimistic spin, which Biden and Blinken are peddling, is that this premature duck-laming will now cue a swan of a commander-in-chief to sing his last song. In the Middle East, Biden is unlikely to

Starting point is 00:12:11 score a late win and will be lucky to avert a disaster. His objective is to prevent the wars between Israel and Hamas and Israel and Hezbollah from spreading into a regional conflict that draws in the U.S. and Iran, Cluth wrote. The happy news is that Biden can still make a difference in some places and for some people, such as Gershkovich and Whelan. The tragedy is that the world and its hatred are too complex to fit into a calendar of an outgoing American president to whom many people at home and abroad want to see failing. In Slate, Fred Kaplan said, it sure seems as if Vladimir Putin is recalculating the U.S. elections. Trump has bragged, as he has when speaking of many problems, that only he could solve the problem.

Starting point is 00:12:51 It seems that we don't need Trump as a savior to wrest the nation's foreign policy from the bungling clutches of Team Biden. It turns out sometimes Biden and company know what they're doing, Kaplan wrote. It turns out most world leaders make decisions based on their interests. And for reasons that have yet to be revealed, Putin decided that it was in his interest to make the deal now. It may be that Putin has recalculated the odds of this November's American presidential election. It could be that Trump was, to some degree, right, that Putin, assuming he wanted to make a deal at some point, was waiting until Trump won, so that the two men could resume their beautiful friendship, Kaplan said. However, like most world leaders, Putin has no doubt

Starting point is 00:13:29 been reading the polls, and he may have concluded that Trump is not going to win. Putin might have reasoned, it's better to take the left is saying, which brings us to what the right is saying. The right is glad to see the Americans freed, but criticizes Biden for a pattern of capitulating to Putin's demands. Some say the U.S. gave up more than it received in the deal. Others credit Biden for bringing the prisoners home, but say the detainment was in part his fault. In The Spectator, Ben Dominich called it a life-saving prisoner swap with the worst incentives. The massive prisoner swap, which led to Russia's release of prisoners Evan Gershkovich, Paul Whelan, and Vladimir Karamurza, among many others, is the greatest gift their families and loved ones could have ever hoped for. In several cases, it is a life-saving development. But it also serves as an indication of just how

Starting point is 00:14:30 much the practice has become a weapon of the world's greatest powers, Domenech said. What used to be the practice of squalid terror groups in the Middle Eastern byways is now official policy for great powers. They do it because it works, and it works because America is weak. Until the day that the United States brings real pain to these kidnappers without giving them a bit of satisfaction, the abduction and jailing of Americans around the world will continue and get worse and grow, Dominic wrote. An American president should never be willing to submit to this type of extortion. Our willingness to shame ourselves is now baked in. The country needs a president with

Starting point is 00:15:05 the strength to say no and to hit back, and who understands that once you pay the Dane Geld, you never get rid of the Dane. And the Federalist John Daniel Davidson argued the deal was ridiculously lopsided. All Americans should welcome the release of our three unjustly imprisoned compatriots, but this wasn't a Cold War-era prisoner swap of the kind immortalized in the Oscar-winning 2015 film Bridge of Spies. It was a dangerously uneven exchange that saw the release of a Russian assassin, along with Russian spies and hackers, all of whom have committed serious crimes in Western countries, Davidson said. Essentially, Moscow arrested a bunch of innocent Western journalists and political dissidents and then used them as bargaining chips to secure the release of its own killers,

Starting point is 00:15:48 criminals, and spies. The deal sends a clear message that a hostile regime can arrest and detain American citizens on false pretenses, using them as leverage to secure the release of their own people, Davidson wrote. It most assuredly wasn't the brilliant foreign policy maneuver of the Biden administration, and the media are saying it was. Again, it's good news that three American citizens were released, but it's hard to make the case that the Biden administration stood up for American security or made America safer by agreeing to this deal. In the Washington Examiner, Tom Rogan said Biden deserves credit for the Russian prisoner swap, but the president still broadcast weakness. While this deal carries

Starting point is 00:16:25 a heavy risk of boosting Russian President Vladimir Putin's appetite for aggressive intelligence operations, it deserves support, Rogin wrote. Biden and his key negotiator, CIA Director Bill Burns, deserve particular credit in terms of the parameters of the agreement. After all, Biden likely could have reached the deal earlier if it had only involved Americans and some Germans detained by Russia. Instead, the deal included a significant number of German citizens, possibly including some German BND foreign intelligence service agents and officers and prominent Russian dissidents. Yet we shouldn't forget, as some in the media are forgetting, that Gershkovich was

Starting point is 00:17:00 detained under Biden, not Trump. Gershkovich was detained under Biden because the president had shown Putin that he would make significant concessions even in the face of blatantly unjust Russian detentions. Putin learned this lesson in December 2022, when Biden exchanged a major Russian arms dealer, Victor Bout, for the WNBA star Brittany Grinner, Rogin said. The next time an American is taken hostage or U.S. interests are otherwise attacked by Russia, the first U.S. response should not be to enter a long process of negotiations. Instead, the U.S. should escalate and repost. All right, let's head over to Isaac for his take. All right, that is it for What the Left and the Writer Sang, which brings us to my take.

Starting point is 00:17:57 So first and foremost, like most of the writers we quoted today, I'm incredibly glad these prisoners are free. Despite my own Russian heritage and desire to see the country, I will not be traveling to Russia anytime soon. See, Vladimir Putin. But I know there are a lot of writers and reporters more courageous than I am, and they don't deserve to be rotting away in penal colonies because Vladimir Putin can't tolerate a critical word written about him. Yes, the prisoner's release comes at a cost, but it is fundamentally a good thing these people are home, and despite the political costs, we should be uniform in celebrating it. Gershkovich's story was perhaps the most moving of all. Some people in the media spent part of last week debating whether the National

Starting point is 00:18:34 Association of Black Journalists should have hosted Donald Trump at their annual conference. Including me, I argued that yes, obviously, they should have. As the Wall Street Journal reported, argued that yes, obviously, they should have. As the Wall Street Journal reported, Gershkovich's last request upon leaving Russia was a one-on-one interview with Vladimir Putin, his captor and tormentor. It's an incredible distinction. The American Twitter journalists who think interviewing Trump is beyond the pale contrasted with a foreign correspondent whose top priority is trying to interview the person who literally just imprisoned him for over a year. That is journalism and the spirit of a real journalist, and it's why people like Gershkovich are so valuable and should be a source of great American pride. Does that mean this swap was a perfect outcome? Hardly. When President Biden landed a deal for the release of Brittany Griner,

Starting point is 00:19:21 I said he made the right bad deal. Griner's freedom came at a high price, and her release didn't include some of the other high-profile Americans who got left behind. Today, I share a very similar sentiment. This release came at a high price, though at least this time we also secured the release of several more Americans being held in prison. Still more remain. Now, I know a lot of pundits and writers are keen on armchair quarterbacking decisions like this. I'm not one of them. Of all the things presidents have to deal with, putting a price on a person's freedom seems like one of the most difficult. Biden's critics seem capable of presenting precisely zero alternatives to what he did, which is typically

Starting point is 00:20:01 a sign they don't really know. And it's no wonder. How do you value the life of an American citizen detained unjustly against a dangerous Russian spy? How many American innocents is one dangerous foreign actor worth, exactly? How do you weigh the inherent risks journalists knowingly take against the inherent freedoms you think they should have? I don't have great answers for these questions. Of course, I understand the negative sentiments. For starters, anytime we trade athletes or journalists for genuine criminals like hit men willing to kill someone publicly in Berlin, it feels like we're on the losing side of an international prisoner swap. After Biden made the deal to secure Greiner's release, we cited the

Starting point is 00:20:40 Washington Examiner editorial board's argument that the Russians will be encouraged by Biden's weakness to take even more U.S. hostages and hold them on flimsy or false charges in hope of extracting concessions. That prediction feels prescient now, and it underscores the legitimate criticisms of Biden's handling of this issue. I share the concerns of writers on the left and right who say this saga could be far from over, in part because we have shown our willingness to make major concessions to bring home our people. The more we negotiate the release of Americans, the stronger the signal is that foreign governments can unjustly arrest our citizens and use them as chess pieces. That's a legitimate cost. But at the end of the day,

Starting point is 00:21:20 it's worth remembering that any deal between the United States and Russia is going to feel lopsided. Because while Putin kills, disappears, and detains dissidents and journalists, our government arrests arms dealers and assassins. While Putin works tirelessly to get murderers and criminals out of prison, then brags about it, our leaders work tirelessly to get innocent journalists freedom from prison. Over the last several years, the war in Ukraine has stirred up a revitalization of anti-American punditry, one peddling the line that Russia is just responding to NATO aggression or that Putin is no worse than American imperialist presidents. I hope that moments like this bring clarity on the distinction between free countries and authoritarian ones, and a reminder of why the former are worth fighting for and worth defending.

Starting point is 00:22:04 We have a bloody and broken world, and we live in why the former are worth fighting for and worth defending. We have a bloody and broken world, and we live in an imperfect and often unjust country. But I'm reminded, on days like today, that I much prefer our guys running the show than theirs. We'll be right back after this quick break. We'll be right back after this quick break. Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. The flu remains a serious disease. Last season, over 102,000 influenza cases have been reported across Canada, which is nearly double the historic average of 52,000 cases.

Starting point is 00:23:00 What can you do this flu season? Talk to your pharmacist or doctor about getting a flu shot. Consider FluCellVax Quad and help protect yourself from the flu. It's the first cell-based flu vaccine authorized in Canada for ages 6 months and older, and it may be available for free in your province. Side effects and allergic reactions can occur, and 100% protection is not guaranteed. Learn more at FluCellvax.ca. All right, that is it for my take, which brings us to your questions answered.

Starting point is 00:23:38 This one's from Jeff in Naperville, Illinois. Jeff said, what evidence do you have that any of this assertion is true? Quote, this motivates some to skip their hearings or simply work here for a couple of years and then quietly return home after. That was a quote taken from our June 6th edition on asylum rules. I'm genuinely interested because I've found no information whatsoever about what illegal immigrants allowed into the U.S. are doing today. Certainly, I've seen zero information regarding illegal immigration exiting the U.S. are doing today. Certainly, I've seen zero information regarding illegal immigration exiting the U.S. Pray share your information, Jeff said. So let's take the first part of your question first. The number of migrants residing in the U.S. who skip their cases is fairly disputed, but

Starting point is 00:24:17 what's not disputed is the fact that a non-negligible portion does so. In 2019, when Trump was making this issue central to his re-election campaign, Pence claimed that 90% of migrants awaiting trial don't show up to court, citing testimony from the Homeland Security Secretary. The real numbers are more complicated than that, though, and the better number may be closer to 44%. Either way, it's a significant number of people. The reason it's hard to say for certain is that government doesn't track and report attendance numbers, but instead has to calculate them from different figures. We know, however, that these hearings often take years to adjudicate, and that many cases result in neither a grant of asylum or deportation, but in a ruling of other. That distinction includes

Starting point is 00:25:00 no-shows, but also cases that have been resolved through other means. And we also know that the portion of other resolutions to asylum cases has been rising for the past several years. Again, it would be wrong to conclude all of those cases were migrants skipping their hearings, but it would also be wrong to conclude that none of them were. To the last part of your question, it's a known fact that many people come from countries that are struggling economically to the United States, or they immigrate to any other country with economic opportunities to send money home. Organizations like the Migration Policy Institute track immigration inflows and outflows, and regularly see certain illegal immigrant populations decrease in size, telling us some migrants are returning home. We also know that many immigrants want to come here temporarily

Starting point is 00:25:44 to help earn money for their families. Journalists have corroborated these stories and for many decades have tracked migrants who come and go voluntarily. So that is how we know that a lot of unauthorized migrants who are here also go home voluntarily. All right, that is it for your reader questions today. I'm going to send it back to John for the rest of the pod, and I'll see you guys tomorrow. Have a good one. Thanks, Isaac. Here's your under-the-radar story for today, folks. Former President Donald Trump refused to begin his panel interview with the National Association of Black Journalists Conference unless he could be assured that there would not be live fact-checking,

Starting point is 00:26:23 the NABJ president claimed. Trump, who eventually took the stage more than an hour late, blamed the delay on audio and technical issues. None of the three journalists interviewing him contested that claim in real time, and there were apparent audio issues during the interview. However, after the event, NABJ President Ken Lemmon said that the delay was caused by a late negotiation with Trump's team about fact-checking. Trump's team has denied the claims, citing the audio and technical issues as the sole cause of the delay. Axios has this story and there's a link in today's episode description. All right, next up is our numbers section. The number of days between Evan Gershkovich's arrest in Russia and his release is 491. The number of days between Paul Whelan's arrest in Russia and his release is 2043. The

Starting point is 00:27:12 number of days between Olsu Kermesheva's arrest in Russia and her release was 288. The percentage of Americans who said the U.S. government should do more to secure Gershkovich's release in April 2023 was 41 percent, according to a YouGov poll. The percentage of Republicans and Democrats, respectively, who said the U.S. government should do more to secure Gershkovich's release was 53% and 37%. The number of prisoners exchanged between the U.S. and Russia in 2010 was 14, the last major swap between the countries prior to last week's deal. The approximate number of Americans wrongfully detained or held hostage overseas whose release has been secured during the Biden administration is 70.

Starting point is 00:27:52 And the number of Americans wrongfully detained or held hostage overseas whose release was secured during the Trump administration was 59. All right, and last but not least, our Have a Nice Day story. Last week, Adriana Ruano won Guatemala's first ever gold medal for her performance in shooting. Before learning to compete in this event, however, Ruano was an elite gymnast. While preparing for the 2011 Gymnastics World Championships, Ruano discovered she had six damaged vertebrae in her back, an injury that would halt her career as a gymnast. She took up shooting after her doctor recommended it

Starting point is 00:28:27 as an easy way to stay in sports without further injuring her back. After taking 26th place in the 2020 Tokyo Olympic, Ruano won gold in Paris. AP News has this story and there's a link in today's episode description. All right, everybody, that is it for today's episode. As always, if you'd like to support our work, please go to readtangle.com and sign up for a membership. We'll be right back here tomorrow. For Isaac and the rest of the crew, this is John Long signing off. Have a great day, y'all. Peace. Peace. Mimplakova, who is also our social media manager. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet75. If you're looking for more from Tangle, please go to readtangle.com and check out our website.

Tangle - The prisoner swap with Russia.

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