Tangle - The Russia diesel deal.

Episode Date: October 15, 2026

On Friday, President Donald Trump announced an agreement to lift sanctions on Russian oil exports in return for Russia releasing roughly 800,000 tons of diesel by the end of November and millions more by an unspecified date. The president said the deal will bring down diesel prices impacted by supply disruptions linked to the Iran war but did not say it is tied to a larger ceasefire deal. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and some U.S. lawmakers criticized the agreement as a gift to Russia and urged Trump to reverse course. Ad-free podcasts are here!Get 20% off your first year of ad-free episodes, exclusive interviews, and deep dives with Tangle’s podcast membership!Suspension of the Rules.Following a few heavier episodes, Isaac, Ari, and Kmele have a bit of fun this week. Kimberly Guilfoyle’s resignation prompts Ari to quiz the guys on other U.S. ambassadors, then the three react to a viral video of a candidate in a local Indiana race. Plus, some discussion on James Talarico and Ilhan Omar. Check it out here.You can read today's podcast⁠ ⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠ and today’s “Have a nice day” story ⁠here⁠.You can subscribe to Tangle by clicking here or drop something in our tip jar by clicking here.Take the survey: Do you think the deal will affect energy prices? Let us know.Our Executive Editor and Founder is Isaac Saul. Our Executive Producer is Jon Lall.This podcast Written by: Isaac Saul and audio engineered and edited by Dewey Thomas. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet 75.Our newsletter is edited by Managing Editor Ari Weitzman, Senior Editor Will Kaback, Bailey Saul, Audrey Moorehead, and Carina Pacheco. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

From executive producer Isaac Saul, this is Tangle. Good morning, good afternoon and good evening, and welcome to the Tangle podcast, a place you get views from across the political spectrum, some independent thinking, and a little bit of my take. I'm your host, Isaac Saul, and on today's episode, we're going to be talking about the Trump-Pooten diesel deal. It's a very big one. I've been head down, ladies and gentlemen, writing the last few days, working on tomorrow's Friday of which I'm super excited to share with you, which is all about the viability of a third party this year, writing part two of my piece on corruption in the Trump administration, and putting the finishing touches on an exciting announcement for all of you coming out next week. So keep your ears out for that. We're going to jump into the Trump Putin- Diesel deal today, which is an important

development, not just for the global energy market, but also to Russia-Ukraine war. We also have a day in the history of the Supreme Court and a feel-good story about two siblings rediscovering each other in a chance and counter. It's a great episode. I'm going to hand it over to Will K. Back to get us started. I'll be back for my take. Thanks, Isaac. All right, we're going to start off today's quick hits with a breaking news item that came out just before we published this edition. President Donald Trump said that the execution of the Fort Hood shooter will not be live streamed, overruling a plan put forward by the Defense Department.

Now, number one, the consumer price index increased 0.6% in September and 3.7% on an annual basis. Gasoline prices rose 9.1% month over month, which accounted for over half of the overall monthly increase. Number two, a Singapore-flagged container ship sank in the Strait of Hormuz after it was struck by an unidentified projectile, which Iran's Revolutionary Guard said was a naval mine. A second Singapore flagged ship was also hit by an unidentified projectile and sustained damage. Number three, Ukraine's Ministry of Defense said that Star Shield, the military version of Starlink's satellite communication system, is working at full speed again after officials had claimed that connection speeds were throttled. Ukrainian president Vladimir Zelensky suggested on

Wednesday that SpaceX CEO Elon Musk deliberately slowed the service. Number four, the Social Security Administration announced a cost of living adjustment that will increase the average Social Security recipients' benefits by $900 per year starting in 2027, a 3.6% increase and the largest rise in monthly payments in four years. And finally, number five, a trial began in Germany for a Ukrainian Special Forces veteran accused of leading an operation to blow up Nord Stream pipelines in 2022. The explosion came without one. Part of the latest wave of Russian attacks in Ukraine.

Even as President Trump posted there be a quote, energy ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia. Well, I'd have to look at it and see because there's been violations on both sides. Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelenskyy slamming President Trump's. of a deal to temporarily suspend U.S. sanctions in order to purchase Russian diesel fuel. That has met bipartisan backlash. There's a legitimate case for saying the president's not following the law. Trump posting that the Russians would immediately supply over 300,000 tons of diesel fuel to the American and global marketplace, aimed at bringing down the price at the pump for Americans. On Friday, President Donald Trump announced an agreement to lift sanctions on Russian oil exports in return for for Russia releasing roughly 800,000 tons of diesel by the end of November and millions more

by an unspecified date. The president said the deal will bring down diesel prices impacted by supply disruptions linked to the Iran war, but did not say it is tied to a larger ceasefire deal with Ukraine. Ukrainian president Vladimir Zelensky and some U.S. lawmakers have criticized the agreement as a gift to Russia and urged Trump to reverse course. For context, in response to Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the U.S. and other Western countries leveled broad sanctions on the Russian economy and its individual leaders. In September, Congress passed a new set of sanctions, some of which applied to Russia's energy sector, with strong bipartisan support, and President Trump signed that bill into law.

Under the announced terms of the deal on Friday, the U.S. will temporarily remove sanctions on Russian diesel exports and Russia will immediately supply the U.S. and global marketplace with approximately 300,000 metric tons of the fuel. They'll supply another 500,000 tons in November, and an additional 1 million tons, quote, immediately thereafter, according to Trump. The president also said Russia will supply 3 million additional tons, quote, within a short period of time based on Russian refinery capabilities. Ukrainian President Zelensky immediately spoke out against the deal,

saying, quote, it looks like a happy birthday president for Putin. It shows a weakness of the world. Zelensky also suggested that a U.S. negotiating team had misled Ukrainian officials about Trump's discussions with Russian President Vladimir Putin over the energy agreement. Other Western leaders also questioned the deal. Italian Prime Minister Georgia Maloney said, quote, it provides Moscow with legitimacy as its bombs continue to fall on Ukrainian cities, generates new revenue to finance the war and implicitly weakens the effectiveness of sanctions, end quote.

Separately, on Sunday, President Trump announced an energy ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia, saying, quote, both parties have agreed, do not break it, end quote. However, Zelensky indicated that he was not aware of an agreement or the terms of a purported ceasefire and later accused Russia of attacking Ukrainian energy infrastructure. On Tuesday, a group of six Democratic and six Republican senators sent a letter to Trump asking him to back out of the diesel deal. The agreement will have a negligible impact on fuel prices, but the revenues the Kremlin will receive from this agreement will undoubtedly finance its desired war of attrition and advanced security cooperation with China, Iran, and North Korea. The letter said. Today we'll share perspectives from the left and the right on the deal, followed by executive editor Isaac Saul's take.

We'll be right back after this quick break. Here's what the left is saying. The left opposes the deal with some saying it won't bring down energy prices. Many expect Russia's war effort will benefit, and others suggest Trump is selling out Ukraine. The Guardian editorial board wrote about the imperative to keep pump prices down. Mr. Trump is unhappy with Ukraine targeting Russian oil refineries. He claims that this is the cost of the cost of the cost of the government.

of high energy prices, afflicting American consumers, and threatening Republican prospects in next month's elections. The real driver of global energy prices is not Ukraine defending itself from Russia attack, but Mr. Trump's failing war against Iran. However, the U.S. President is incapable of admitting any fault. Blaming Mr. Zelensky enables him to deny his own culpability, and with malevolent encouragement from Mr. Putin, to revive the preposterous notion that Ukrainian intransigence, rather than Russian aggression, is the reason why his promise to broker a peace deal remains unfulfilled. The best response to Mr. Trump's perfidy is for Mr. Zelensky's friends to reaffirm their support, thereby signaling that Ukraine will not be beaten by deals

between the Kremlin and the White House. In the Philadelphia Inquirer, Trudy Rubin suggested the deal will fund Putin's war machine. The diesel deal Trump has gifted Putin won't halt Russia's aggression, it will reward it. It will encourage the Kremlin's unyielding demand that Kiev's surrender to Moscow's overlordship, and it will fuel Putin's war chest. The Ukrainians were ready to discuss a two-way ceasefire over attacks on energy infrastructure, but were totally blindsided. Instead, Trump unilaterally declared such a ceasefire had been reached, and it hadn't. Yet when Zelensky rejected the one-sided diesel deal, Trump went ballistic and called for his replacement. as if Ukraine were a banana republic whose president could be ousted overnight.

If Putin keeps getting freebies from his friend Donald, why make concessions? Lifting sanctions on Russian diesel exports, as Zelensky noted, not only gives Putin more money to inflict suffering on Ukraine, but also gives him the ability to fight even more. In the Atlantic and Applebaum said, Donald Trump has dropped all pretense. President Trump lifted sanctions on the import of Russian diesel fuel, in violation of the letter and spirit of laws that he himself signed. The president has implied that the point of this new policy is to lower fuel prices for Americans,

but that is not a sufficient explanation or justification for these dramatic actions. The amount of fuel that Russia could export is too small, the impact on pricing is too slight, and the narrative too late to shape electoral outcomes. This looks instead like something very different, an abrupt Hail Mary attempt to force Ukraine to surrender and to save the Russian economy, perhaps in order to finally complete the multiple business deals that the Russians are known to have discussed with American negotiators and others in Trump's orbit. American allies in Europe and elsewhere have tried to explain to the president the significance

of the war and the threat that Russia poses. Now it looks as if they have failed, and Trump has followed his oldest instincts to side with Putin. Now here's what the right is saying. The right is mixed with some calling the deal a strong strategic move. Others argue that the agreement is a short-term solution to a long-term problem. Still others contend that Trump's deal supports Putin's war efforts. In Fox News, Gordon Sondland suggested Trump is threading the needle. Europe is not yet strong enough to contain Russia without substantial American support.

Despite years of promises, too many NATO allies remain dependent on America. American military capabilities, intelligence, logistics, and leadership. Every additional weapons system, dollar and hour of strategic attention consumed by Moscow is a resource unavailable for deterring Beijing or addressing other threats. Trump is trying to change that equation. In the long run, we want a fully economically engaged Russia that has something meaningful to lose. That doesn't mean trusting Putin.

It means understanding his incentives. Putin wants two things. money and real estate. He wants the economic benefits of international engagement and the territorial advantages of an empire. Trump is uniquely positioned to offer the former while making the latter prohibitively expensive, and that's the needle that Trump is trying to thread. In the daily caller, David Blackman wrote about energy's long-term problem. Any visible relief at the pump before the midterms would matter politically as well as economically. But with just three weeks until election, day, the same constraints remain. Utilization rates that are not sustainable, thin inventories,

and the absence of new domestic refining capacity. Temporary imports and sanctions waivers can buy time, but they do not substitute for permitting and building additional domestic capacity. If the new diesel flows and the energy truces are kept, U.S. consumers will no doubt see some price relief. If any of the deals fundamentals fail, the pressure on U.S. refineries continues on a Either outcome leaves the central problem intact. The U.S. and the world need more refining capacity than current policies and geopolitics have allowed, and two ongoing wars have robbed markets of all their cushions. Something has got to give.

The Wall Street Journal editorial board said the deal will directly finance Mr. Putin's bloody war. The Financial Times reported Saturday that the Trump administration threatened to cut off vital intelligence sharing to Kiev if it continues attacking Russian refineries. On Wednesday, 22 people, including five children, were killed in a Russian cruise missile strike on an apartment building, and after the diesel announcement, Russia launched glide bombs at a residential area, killing at least 20. Without a complete ceasefire,

Russia will continue to torment Ukrainian civilians. The strategic turn here is hard to understand. Trump's multiple attempts at appeasing Mr. Putin haven't moved the Russian. On the weekend, a Russian official said the diesel deal doesn't change Mr. Putin's determination to achieve his war aim, which is to turn Ukraine into a Kremlin satrapy. Until that changes, Mr. Trump's diesel deal helps Russia and not the cause of peace. All right, that is it for the views from the left and the right. Now I'm going to hand it over to Isaac.

All right, that is it for the left and the right saying, which brings us to my take. Imagine you are in President Trump's position. At the urging of a Middle East ally, you've led the nation into a conflict with Iran that has proved much more difficult to end than you imagined. Iranian forces have been able to disrupt or, at times, completely shut down the Strait of Hormuz, a critical choke point for oil shipping, something you may have known was possible, but never imagined would be so difficult to resolve. Ravado and bombs have not freed up the waterway, nor have quieter tactical negotiations,

or special operations. As the midterms have inch closer, fuel prices have continued to rise, driving persistent inflation. Despite leading a country that dominates diesel exports, diesel prices have also skyrocketed to the detriment of Americans. At the same time, you haven't been able to negotiate a truce

between Ukraine and Russia, which you promise you'd do in the first 24 hours of your presidency. Vladimir Putin is an influential authoritarian leader you harbor a kind of twisted respect for, while Vlodomor Zelensky is a petulant, persistent leader of a less significant country who desperately needs your support, but is less to offer in return. You thought Putin would defeat Zelensky,

then briefly thought Zelensky would defeat Putin, and now fear that the effective Ukrainian strategy of targeting Russian oil refineries will further disrupt an already fragile global energy supply. And still, the midterms inch closer. So you have a predicament if you're President Trump. Expensive foreign diesel is not necessarily bad for U.S. producers. In theory, they should benefit from the short supply

by making more money refining crude oil into diesel. However, American consumers pay the downstream costs of more expensive diesel, from freight companies paying higher transportation costs to your average Great Plains rancher getting crushed at the pump. The bad outweighs the good. These pains are felt globally, and a lot of world leaders blame you, since you've launched a war with Iran, which also disrupted global energy supply.

You could definitely use a scapegoat. The obvious solution to lower prices is to create more supply, and the simplest route is to free up the Strait of Ormuz, allowing more diesel to flow in every direction and bringing down the cost globally. But you have not been able to get the straight back to normal, and after several attempts, you start to look at the rest of your board. You've played your hand in Venezuela. You've made major releases from the Strategic U.S. Oil Reserve.

That leaves Russia. Now, imagine being in Vladimir Putin's position. You invaded Ukraine in 2022, plummeting Eastern Europe into disarray and sending an economic and energy shock across the globe. When the war started, you were exporting about 40 million tons of diesel per year. The United Kingdom and Europe tried to punish you by not buying your diesel, so you replaced their markets with countries like Turkey, Brazil, and nations across Africa. This worked for a while. And as of April this year, you still had some 3 million tons of diesel per month available to export, or 36 million tons per year. And then Ukraine opened up a new front in the war. They started bombing your oil refineries, and by September your export rate was decimated, down to 325,000 tons per month. To avoid a domestic

shortage, you ban diesel exports everywhere except Central Asia and Mongolia. You're weathering the storm, refusing a ceasefire with Ukraine and escalating the war there, hoping that your country can pace its own use of oil to stave off economic calamity until well after Ukraine experiences theirs. Inwalks President Trump. He's got an offer. Export a few million tons of diesel between now and April 27, and over that period, he will suspend the economic sanctions he has in place

to punish anyone buying diesel from you. No strings attached to a ceasefire or peace deal with Ukraine. the diesel you'll export in the arrangement is worth about $7 billion, and with the sanctions gone, you won't have to sell it at a discount. For the U.S., this will create more supply in the global system, theoretically bringing down global oil and diesel prices. There's your deal. As for the millions of us American voters and consumers,

I have a few frameworks for thinking about this deal. First, is it good for America? According to Reuters, Russia is going to immediately supply 300,000 metric tons, or 2.25 million barrels of diesel to the United States and global markets. That sounds like an astronomical amount, and I suppose it is, but it's less than a day's supply for the U.S. transport sector alone, and it's going to be dispersed globally. Trump has said Russia will release another 500,000 tons in November

and another 1 million after that, which altogether amounts to about four days of the total diesel demand for United States transport. The Carnegie Russia-Eurasia Center suggested the deal, might bring prices down marginally, but many market players have already factored in assumptions that Russia would export all the surplus diesel it could. It is no place to store it otherwise.

Real price relief would only come if Kiev stopped bombing Russian refineries, which isn't going to happen since it has learned that's a powerful lever to pull. And that's just the benefits. The cost, benefiting a geopolitical rival, undermining a geopolitical ally, and embroiling the U.S. government

and yet another questionable international deal are also real. That brings me to my second framework. Is President Trump's deal even legal? The sanction statute was enacted in 2022 under President Biden. While presidents typically have broad authority to waive sanctions, this specific law was unusual, putting in plain text that the president must first consult with several congressional committees,

submit a report 45 days before making changes, and provide certification to Congress before lifting the prohibition. In fact, the entire sanctions relief by law is dependent on Russia withdrawing from Ukraine and ceasing hostilities, a determination that must be accepted by Ukraine. None of that has happened. So many legal experts in a bipartisan coalition of Congress says the president broke the law and they've called for the president to rescind the deal. Third, and finally, is the larger geopolitical context.

Will this meaningfully address the global energy crisis? Remember, Russia's war didn't spark the 26th, global energy crisis, Trump's decision to attack Iran did. The deal itself won't be much of an economic boon for Russia. The $7 billion of diesel was going to be sold anyway, and it's just slightly cheaper rates. But the signal it sends is helpful for Putin. It comes at a time when Ukraine is accusing the United States of hampering its battlefield tech and halting shared intelligence about Russian attacks. In some, we appear to be turning on Ukraine, handing a small but meaningful economic gift to Putin and doing it all for an uncertain and marginal improvement in energy prices,

prices that were destabilized by a different war that we started. Oh, and this is all happening a month after the president signed the bipartisan bill that explicitly leveled sanctions and tariffs on countries that buy Russian oil and gas. Trump explained the sudden pivot by saying his number one priority was ranchers, farmers, and he blamed Ukraine for ignoring requests to stop bombing Russian refineries. It's a mess, a genuine election. time, Hell Mary, that could have long-term negative implications for our international relations. After all, we've been punishing countries for buying Russian oil until now, and for the future

of Ukraine, which is suddenly dealt yet another disadvantage in the war. I'm open to arguments that this is somehow good for us or the global geopolitical situation, but I've seen very little in the way of compelling points to that end. All right, that is it for my take. I'm going to send it back to Will K back for the rest of the pod. I'll see you guys tomorrow. Have a good one. We'll be right back after this quick break. Thanks, Isaac. All right, now on to a look back at this day in history.

On October 15, 1991, the Senate confirmed Clarence Thomas to the Supreme Court by a narrow 52-48 vote. Thomas was among the youngest nominees in court history at 43 years old and became the second black Supreme Court justice after Thurgood Marshall. whom Thomas replaced on the bench. Thomas's confirmation process was one of the most contentious in Supreme Court history. After President George H.W. Bush nominated Thomas, confidential allegations of sexual harassment that former colleague Anita Hill gave to the FBI and Senate Judiciary Committee were leaked to the press and became a focal point of Thomas' hearing.

The Judiciary Committee chaired by then Senator Joe Biden, deadlocked 7 to 7 on advancing Thomas's nomination and ultimately voted to send it to the full Senate without recommendation. Racial dynamics also played a role in the hearings. The 14-member Senate Judiciary Committee that questioned Hill and vetted Thomas were all white and all-male. Separately civil rights groups expressed alarm about Thomas's staunch conservatism and originalist constitutional interpretation,

especially since he would be replacing Marshall, a champion of civil rights. The bitter confirmation process took over three months. Thomas fiercely defended himself before the committee, and at the time called it a circus, a national disgrace, and a, quote, high-tech lynching for uppity blacks who in any way deigned to think for themselves, end quote. He was sworn in on October 23, 1991. Finally, here is today's Happy Nice Day story.

19-year-old Samantha Rensfeld always knew that she had a younger biological sister, but since both girls had been put up for adoption, Samantha was never able to contact her. Then at a softball tournament in Montana in August of 2025, a teammate pointed an infielder out to Rensvold, to whom she bore a striking resemblance. Rensvold went to her mom who checked the roster. The player's name was Kian Dien,

the same name Rensvold's birth mother had given her sister. The two families confirmed their details, and Rensvold and Dean have stayed in touch. They discovered that they not only had the same interest in sports, but they wore the same volleyball jersey number and have the same, quote, Little Giggle. People has this story, and the link is in today's show notes. All right, that is it for today's edition.

Thanks for being with us for another week of the news and Tangle coverage. We will be back with you tomorrow for our Friday edition, an essay from Isaac that we think you all enjoy. Until then, be well. Have a great day. And... Our executive editor and founder is me, Isaac Saul, and our executive producer is John Lull. Today's episode was edited and engineered by Dewey Thomas.

Our editorial staff is led by managing editor Ari Weitzman with senior editor Will Kback and associate editor, Audrey Moorhead, Bailey Saul. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet 75. To learn more about Tangle and to sign up for a membership, please visit our website at reetangle.com.