Tangle - The Senate and House budget plans
Episode Date: February 20, 2025Republicans in Congress are moving to pass a budget plan to advance President Donald Trump’s domestic agenda. On Wednesday, the Senate voted 50-47 to take up the outline of a bud...get that would increase immigration and military spending but does not include an extension of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. The vote is a key step in the budget reconciliation process, which allows a party to bypass the Senate's 60-vote filibuster rule to pass eligible budget legislation with a simple majority vote. However, Republicans in the House and Senate are advancing separate bills and will need to approve identical resolutions to use the reconciliation process. We are surveying our podcast listeners to better understand our audience and improve our products. If you regularly listen to the podcast, or even if you have listened just once, please take three minutes and fill out this audience survey. We’d really appreciate it!Ad-free podcasts are here!Many listeners have been asking for an ad-free version of this podcast that they could subscribe to — and we finally launched it. You can go to ReadTangle.com to sign up!You can read today's podcast here, our “Under the Radar” story here and today’s “Have a nice day” story here.Take the survey: Where do you think Congress should cut the federal budget? Let us know!You can subscribe to Tangle by clicking here or drop something in our tip jar by clicking here. Our podcast is written by Isaac Saul and edited and engineered by Dewey Thomas. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet 75. Our newsletter is edited by Managing Editor Ari Weitzman, Will Kaback, Bailey Saul, Sean Brady, and produced in conjunction with Tangle’s social media manager Magdalena Bokowa, who also created our logo. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening.
And welcome to the Tangle podcast, the place where you get views from across the political
spectrum, some independent thinking, and a little bit of our take.
I'm your host, Ari Weitzman.
And today we're going to be talking about the budget bills in Congress, the competing bill from the Senate
and the House, what Republicans are looking to pass before the upcoming government shutdown
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So let's get started with today's quick hits.
["The Daily Show"]
Number one, some breaking news.
Senator Mitch McConnell, Republican from Kentucky, announced he will not seek re-election in
2026.
Number two, President Donald Trump called Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky a dictator
without elections in a social media post, adding that Zelensky had misused US aid and
mismanaged the war with Russia.
Zelensky responded that Trump is living in this disinformation space.
Number three, Hamas returned the bodies of four Israeli hostages held in Gaza,
including two children, the first time that deceased hostages have been returned
since the start of the Israel-Hamas war.
Number four, Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy sent a letter to New York Governor
Kathy Ochral, expressing his intent to revoke federal approval of New York
City's congestion pricing program,
though he did not specify a time frame for this action.
Separately, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth
directed senior leaders at the Pentagon
to develop plans for cutting 8% from the defense budget each
year for the next five years.
Number five, the Senate voted 52 to 46
to confirm former Senator Kelly Loeffler from
Georgia to lead the small business administration.
Number six, Brazil's prosecutor general charged former Brazilian president Yair Bolsonaro
with attempting a coup to remain in office in 2022.
A plot that allegedly included plans to poison his successor, President Luiz Inácio Lula
da Silva and murder a Supreme Court judge.
Senate Republicans plan to vote tomorrow, any budget resolution that would kickstart the process of passing President Trump's policies and funding the federal government. But that's until the president himself weighed in today, throwing his support behind a rival push from House Republicans for, in Trump's words, one big beautiful bill that includes
the full quote, America first agenda, everything, not just parts of it.
Well, the problem is the House isn't even in a session and the details of that single
bill are nowhere near worked out.
Republicans in Congress are moving to pass a budget plan
to advance President Donald Trump's domestic agenda.
On Wednesday, the Senate voted 50 to 47
to take up the outline of a budget
that would increase immigration and military spending,
but does not include an extension
of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.
The vote is a key step in the budget reconciliation process,
which allows a party to bypass the Senate 60-vote filibuster
rule to pass eligible budget legislation with a simple
majority vote.
However, Republicans in the House and Senate
are advancing separate bills and will
need to approve identical resolutions to use
the reconciliation process.
Senate Republicans' budget plan is narrower in scope, focusing on increasing defense and
border security spending by $150 billion and $175 billion respectively, as well as permitting
new offshore drilling leases.
Senator Lindsey Graham, Republican from South Carolina, chairman of the Senate Budget Committee,
said that Senate Republicans' plan is to pass this bill, then extend the 2017 tax cuts with a second bill.
The House GOP's budget includes all of President Trump's spending priorities in one bill.
Specifically, it provides $300 billion in new funding for border security,
defense, and the judiciary, calls for $4.5 trillion in tax cuts, and raises the debt limit by $4 trillion.
The plan also directs House committees to advance proposals to cut federal spending
through the $880 billion in cuts from the Energy and Commerce Committee, $330 billion
in cuts from the Education and Workforce Committee, and $230 billion in cuts from the Agriculture
Committee, as well as approximately $62 billion in smaller cuts from all other committees.
On Wednesday, Trump endorsed the House's plan, posting on Truth Social,
The House resolution implements my full America First agenda.
Everything, not just parts of it.
We need both chambers to pass the House budget to kickstart the reconciliation process
and move all our priorities to the concept of one big,
beautiful bill. However, also on Wednesday, Senate Republicans met with Vice President
J.D. Vance and emerged from the meeting resolved to continue with their plan.
Trump has made it clear for a long time that he would prefer one big, beautiful bill,
and we're fine with that too. If the House can produce one big, beautiful bill, we're prepared to work
with them to get that across the finish line, Senate Majority Leader
John Thune of South Dakota said.
Both chambers must pass the same version of a spending bill before
President Trump can sign it into law.
The government is set to partially shut down if a bill is not passed
and signed by March 14th.
Today, we'll explore the latest on the competing budget plans with
perspectives from the left and right.
Then I'll give my take. [♪ Music playing. Vibrant beat one feeling winning which beats even the 27th best feeling saying I do.
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Let's start with what the left is saying.
The left criticizes Republicans' approach to the budget process, arguing the proposed
spending cuts would hurt average Americans.
Some say the budget plans rest on flawed assumptions. Others say Democrats should refuse to bail out Republicans if they can't win support for the budget within their own ranks.
In The Washington Post, Catherine Rimpel wrote,
to pay for tax cuts, the GOP's budget plan goes full scrooge.
Republicans have been trying for years to reduce federal health programs and nutritional
assistance, including their disastrous attempts to repeal Obamacare in 2017.
But now that they're desperate to extend and expand the Trump tax cuts, they are especially
motivated to shred the safety net because they need to find cost savings somewhere,
Rumpel said.
Republican lawmakers seem inclined to give him most of what he wants. So how do they plan to fill their gaping budget hole? They claim they'll do it through
a combination of fake math, non-binding promises, and shanking the poor. Exactly how committees
will slice and dice these programs is not specified. Republicans might cut programs
under the guise of new or stricter work requirements, for example. This idea often pulls well, but when Medicaid work requirements were briefly tried during Trump's
first term, they ended up backfiring, Rumpel wrote. The White House is explicitly trying to
flood the zone with distressing developments, constitutional crises, trade wars, data deletions,
law enforcement purges, gutted agencies. It all deserves your attention.
But don't take your eye off Congress.
In Bloomberg, Katherine Ann Edwards argued House Republicans' budget plan gets poverty
all wrong.
House Republicans released a budget proposal that effectively calls for a $4.5 trillion
tax cut funded by $1.5 trillion in reduced spending and borrowing the remaining
$3 trillion. Proponents of the bill say it's not about spending cuts, but making programs
less vulnerable to waste, fraud, and abuse. In particular, wasting benefits on people
not worthy of them, Edwards wrote. Such thinking exposes a fundamental misunderstanding of
poverty, one that disregards the economic reality of being a low-income American in favor of broad judgment and harsh
policy. Enduring poverty myths propel misguided policy like a tax cut
financed via lower spending envisioned by Republicans. If the myths were true, the
reasonable conclusion is that policy needs to fix these people. The economy is fine.
The labor market is fine.
The housing market is fine.
Health insurance is fine.
It's these people and their choices that need addressing," Edwards said.
But these myths aren't true, which means that instead policy needs to address the economic
and labor market shortcomings that generate poverty and hardship.
It puts into perspective just how much is lost with yet another sprawling multi-trillion
dollar debt financed tax cut.
In MSNBC, Michael A. Cohen said Trump and the GOP have boxed themselves into a corner
on the budget.
One of Trump's first moves as president was an attempt to freeze federal spending that
had been authorized and appropriated by Congress.
Why should Democrats support another funding measure if they can't be sure Trump will
spend the money they give to the executive branch, Cohen wrote.
Furthermore, with an extraordinarily narrow two seat majority in the House and a track
record of GOP iconicalism regarding government funding measures, there's a real question as to whether House Speaker Mike Johnson,
Republican from Louisiana, can cobble together enough Republican votes.
At this point, the potential for a government shutdown is pretty much the
only arrow in the Democratic quiver to stop the damage that Trump and Musk
have wrought in just three weeks," Cohen said.
Moreover, Trump's extremism has given Democrats little choice.
If Republicans need democratic votes to keep the government open, how could
Democrats explain to their supporters giving them away without a King's
ransom in return, especially after the White House's blythe dismissal
of congressional prerogatives. That's it for what the left is saying.
Now for what the right is saying.
The right varies in its response to the budget proposals, with many saying Republicans should
do what it takes to renew the Trump tax cuts.
Some worry that Republicans aren't committed
to reducing the federal deficit.
Others say the House and Senate have a challenging road ahead
despite the GOP controlling both chambers.
The New York Post editorial board wrote,
Republicans need to make tough choices
to save the Trump tax cuts.
The nation urgently needs Congress
to save the Trump tax cuts,
but Republicans in Congress
are going to need some fancy footwork to make that happen.
To get any budget items passed, GOP lawmakers and President Donald Trump himself will need
to accept compromises, the board said.
For starters, cementing votes will be a monster hurdle since GOP control in each house is
dangerously thin.
Equally problematic?
If all the Trump tax cuts pass,
revenue won't cover spending.
And the last thing Republicans will want to do
is increase red ink.
Dems, meanwhile, have threatened to block GOP budget bills
that they're not happy with,
even if it means shutting down the government.
No wonder House Republicans hope to dispense
all their tax and spend issues
in one big, beautiful bill, as Trump calls it.
They fear they'll only get one chance to muster a majority, the board wrote.
The key House committee passed an initial blueprint calling for a maximum $4.5
trillion in tax cuts, well short of what's needed to cover all of Trump's asks.
GOP has added a provision to up that maximum under certain conditions,
but something will still likely have to give. In the dispatch, Jessica Riedel explored
Republicans' underwhelming budget. The new House budget resolution would likely add $3.3 trillion
to 10-year deficits. These costs will dwarf the largely symbolic Doge budget savings and
show a Republican government
once again dramatically driving budget deficits upward," Riedel said.
The Congressional Budget Office's latest baseline projections show Washington running $21 trillion
in budget deficits over the 2025-2034 period covered in the Republican budget proposal,
pushing the federal debt held by the public
from $29 trillion to $50 trillion.
All signs point to steeply rising budget deficits.
Baseline annual deficits were already headed
toward $3 trillion within a decade
due to growing Social Security, Medicare,
and interest payments on the national debt,
Riedel wrote.
Even the $1.2 trillion mandatory program savings
assigned to various committees assume a combination
of Republican unanimity and aggressive budget cutting
that has never before occurred.
The most likely outcome is that Congress ultimately
reduces taxes, shelves most spending cuts,
sees interest rates rise further,
and brings deficits approaching $4
trillion within a decade.
In National Review, Dan McLaughlin wrote that Republicans are unreconciled on spending.
If they can keep their slim caucuses united, Republicans have the votes to pass without
Democratic support anything that is properly channeled through reconciliation, McLaughlin
said.
If Republicans can reach a budget they all agree on,
Trump should be willing to give ground
on impoundment authority,
because such a budget can be written
so that it accomplished what impoundment
is supposed to be aimed at.
Spending money only on the things
that either Congress explicitly authorizes
or the president approves.
But there are two major problems.
First, Trump's real goals extend to other things as well,
such as reshaping programs previously authorized
by Congress or bending agency staff to his will.
The latter of those ought to be easier
within the executive power.
The former involves improperly sapping
the power of Congress, McLaughlin wrote.
Second, getting the budget just right is a lot of work
and it will take a lot of time.
And it's far from clear that the current House
and Senate Republican caucuses
can stay united enough to agree on it.
This whole process is including the Democrats
because Republicans can't get all of that done
through the proper budget channels in time
to fund the government by mid-March. Alright, that's it for what the left and right are saying, which brings us to my take.
It's federal budget season, which means a lot of headspinning numbers and congressional dysfunction.
But before we can truly appreciate the depth of the latter, we need to really understand the former.
Here are some facts about the budget.
In fiscal year 2024, the federal budget deficit was $1.8 trillion.
That's $1,800 billion or 35 departments of energy.
And again, that's just the deficit.
For more perspective, the entire discretionary federal budget or everything that can legally
be controlled through the reconciliation process was $1.7 trillion in fiscal year 2024. That's equivalent
to 2,125 consumer financial protection bureaus. The mandatory spending for the federal budget,
that's Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, income security programs, VA benefits, and retirement plans. That was $3.9 trillion
in fiscal year 2024. That's over double the entire discretionary spending budget. Lastly,
interest on the national debt accounted for a full $700 billion, or a bit less than three
times the cost of the entire federal government workforce, which is about $270 billion.
I think laying out all these numbers in clear terms is essential to understanding what balancing the budget actually means.
If you want to meaningfully cut the deficit, you have to either bring those numbers down or significantly raise revenues or
federal taxes which were roughly $4.4 trillion dollars in fiscal year 2023.
Leaving revenue increases aside for a moment, if you're looking to cut spending,
these are the biggest areas of the budget. Again, all in fiscal year 2023
numbers. Healthcare or Medicare and Medicaid, which is mandatory spending, was $1.5 trillion.
Social Security, which is also mandatory spending, $1.3 trillion.
Defense, which is discretionary spending, $800 billion.
Interest on federal debts, number four, $660 billion.
Those are the top four budget line items for the federal government.
Now, that's not to opine on what ought to be cut or how to prioritize these items over one another.
It's only to state the plain fact that these four areas comprise 70% of all federal spending. If you delete the entire rest of the federal budget
and these four areas remain the same, the budget is only balanced. These top line numbers are
essential to keep in mind when Congress talks about responsible spending cuts or when Elon Musk
and Doge claim they're doing anything meaningful to the federal federal budget by pulling contracts, funding or workers salaries in order to truly appreciate
the depths of their on seriousness.
So the Senate wants to pass a spending bill first, then a funding bill second.
All right.
What do they want to enact?
A $345 billion increase in three places, 175 for border security, 150 for
defense and 20 for the Coast Guard.
Now, I'd love to do a breakdown of each of those items and judge them as a matter of policy,
but let me first address how Republicans intend to pay for those increases.
To get a sense of that, since this is just the spending bill, we should look at the House bill.
The House wants to pass a spending and funding bill at the same time. This gets a bit complicated because they're using
a time span of a decade rather than breaking it out over a fiscal year, but
this is a common practice. In that context, the House GOP is proposing
$4.5 trillion in tax cuts over the next decade, dependent on finding $2
trillion in cuts to mandatory spending at the same time. Now to their credit, the House is looking for cuts in at least one meaningful place,
Medicaid.
Specifically, by paying for Medicaid based on population instead of the current open-ended
entitlement system.
To repeat, I'm not opining on the merits of this plan or the merits of cutting Medicaid
spending in general.
I'm just bluntly stating that this is one of the biggest areas where there is funding
to cut and the House is right to look there.
However, proposed increases to discretionary spending from the House more than cancel out
the changes to Medicaid spending and cuts to other federal programming, not to mention
the fact that President Trump directed Congress not to touch Medicare or Medicaid. So that's a decidedly mixed signal on what Republicans
are actually going to cut. Furthermore, the top-line math on revenue cuts paired
with budget cuts doesn't make a ton of sense at first glance, since 4.5
trillion in revenue cuts is greater than 22 trillion in spending cuts.
However, Republicans believe that tax cuts
encourage economic stimulus
that spurs more revenues over time.
So they argue this spending is net neutral.
Even totally standing that point,
which many economists don't,
and even assuming these cuts to mandatory spending
are enacted, the House's plan will still increase
the deficit over the span of a decade by about $3 trillion. The House knows this. A balanced
budget for five years, somewhat maddeningly, means an increased debt and a federal deficit
because of our fourth largest spending item, interest on existing debt.
That brings me to congressional dysfunction.
And to be frank, the whole back and forth between the chambers, should it be two bills or one? Is Mike Johnson out maneuvering John Toon? Is Trump undermining the Senate?
Is the House Freedom Caucus increasing its influence?
Should we increase offshore drilling? Can Republicans
include all the priorities before a government shutdown? Will Democrats play a ball? It's
all so tedious. It's a fight for control of the captain's wheel while the ship is sinking.
It's a high school putting on a school play while the building's on fire. It's another
melodrama from a party with control of both chambers of Congress and the White
House, squabbling over how they're going to keep the government from shutting down and
the deficit neutral after years and years of sounding the alarm that what we truly need
is a harsh look at reality and some stiff cuts.
I feel that urgency.
I'm 37 years old. I'm going to be inheriting the debt that
are increasingly aging Congress is increasingly saddling me and people in my age group with.
I've been compelled by the conviction that every congressional Republican directed at
President Biden's trillion dollar pandemic recovery spends, conviction that they have
now seemed to abandon for a fun game of who can curry the president's favor the most, with the blessed exception of
the idealistically consistent Senator Rand Paul from Kentucky. Congress, where
is your urgency? What are you doing? I really want to do a deeper analysis here.
I would love to do an analyst job and get into the numbers and compare what each budget
item does and where the cuts make the most sense and just evaluate this as a matter of
policy but I, what's the point?
I can't.
It's an obviously fruitless exercise.
The House can pass their bill as advertised, the Senate can pass theirs, and pair it with some similarly tough but feckless budget cuts and tax cuts balancing act, or they can meet
in the middle.
It doesn't matter.
The deficit is going to decrease.
The national debt is going to get worse.
Congress is failing us. We'll be right back after this quick break.
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All right.
Well, that's it for my take, which brings us to your questions answered. All right.
Well, that's it for my take, which brings us to your questions answered.
This one comes from John from Charlotte, North Carolina, who asks, there have been a lot
of resignations in the news regarding Trump's actions as well as with the Eric Adams situations.
What are these people accomplished by resigning?
Won't Trump just replace them with someone loyal to him?
How does it help in any way?
Audrey Moorhead, our associate editor, answered this question today.
Audrey said, you're right that at a small scale, an individual resignation doesn't mean
much.
Take the example of Danielle Sassoon.
She left her post as acting attorney for the Southern District of New York in protest of
the Justice Department's directive to dismiss the Eric Adams case. However, Sassoon was only fulfilling the position
in the interim, while Trump's pick for the position, Jay Clayton, awaits confirmation.
Trump will need to find someone else to assume the interim posting, but in the grand scheme
of things, Sassoon's departure is a small, temporary setback for the government.
That said, there are several reasons why Sassoon and others feel the need to resign, and why
they believe their resignations could do some good.
For one thing, Sassoon likely would have been fired if she hadn't resigned, which would
have allowed the DOJ to control the initial narrative of her departure.
Instead, she published a resignation letter and defined a moral case for her decision,
attracting more attention to her situation and to the case itself.
It also set a precedent for other prosecutorial resignations in protest of DOJ orders, including
Sassoon's colleagues in the Southern District.
History also provides evidence of cases where resignations like these can affect change,
especially when they happen on a larger scale.
The most prominent example is probably the Saturday Night Massacre, a series of high-profile
resignations during the Watergate scandal that was the tipping point leading to President
Nixon's resignation.
While I don't think the resignations happening now will have quite the same effect, they've
undeniably caught public attention and combined with pushback from the judge considering the
case dismissal.
It's not unreasonable for these officials to hope their resignations
might make the DOJ and the Trump administration reconsider some of their decisions.
Alright, that's it for our listener question today.
Now let's turn to the under the radar story.
On his first day in office, President Donald Trump issued an executive order designating
cartels as foreign terrorist organizations.
This week, the State Department officially added eight Latin American gangs to its terror
list.
The named gangs include six Mexican drug cartels, Venezuela's Tren de Aragua, El Salvador's
Mara Salvatruca, or MS-13.
They joined roughly 60 Islamic militant
groups on the list. The designation, which fulfills one of Trump's campaign
promises, will enable stricter sanctions against members of these gangs as well
as potential military action. The Wall Street Journal has the story and you can
click the link in the episode description for more. All right, now for today's numbers. 112.26%.
That's the U.S. debt as a percentage of GDP in 2023,
according to the International Monetary Fund.
49.92%.
That's Canada's debt as a percentage of their GDP in 2023.
1974, the year the budget reconciliation process was created by the Congressional Budget and
Empowerment Control Act.
23, the number of budget reconciliation bills passed by Congress and signed into law to
date.
4, the number of budget reconciliation bills passed by Congress but vetoed by the President.
$4 trillion, the projected increase in primary deficits
over the next decade on a conventional basis
if the provisions in the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act
are permanently extended, according
to a study by Penn Wharton.
16%.
The projected increase in the federal debt by 2054
relative to current law if the tax
cuts are permanently extended.
Plus 0.2%.
The projected increase in GDP by 2054 relative to current law if the tax cuts are permanently
extended.
All right, here's your have a nice day story.
At the age of 15, Ted midgley left school when he couldn't find support for his dyslexia.
Consequently, he never learned how to read and spent the next 40 years of his life only
knowing how to spell his name.
When an opportunity arose for Midgley, now 58, to be a manager for a professional motorcycle
racer, his lifelong passion for Speedway motivated him to learn to read.
Nailing to be able to read emails, Midgley applied himself to the challenge, working
one-on-one with the tutor and eventually achieving his goal.
In addition to enjoying new job prospects, Midgley can now read a Speedway Star magazine
that he had kept for 40 years.
The BBC has the story.
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That's all for us today. We'll be right back here tomorrow. Talk to you soon.
Our podcast is written by me, Isaac Saul, and edited and engineered by Duke Thomas.
Our script is edited by Ari Weitzman, Will Kavak, Gailie Saul, and Sean Brady.
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