Tangle - The Sunday Podcast: Isaac and Ari talk about Israel and Iran, The State of the Race in Every Swing State and more

Episode Date: October 6, 2024

On today's episode, Isaac and Ari talk about Israel and Iran maybe going into a major war, we play a little game where Ari guesses the state of the race in every swing state, Kamala's bad week and even a little sports history and an ode to fall. And as always, the Airing of Grievances.Ad-free podcasts are here!For the last few years, our daily podcast has been ad-supported. In that time, we’ve gotten complaints from our listeners saying they find these ads annoying and would happily pay a subscription to get ad-free podcasts — and we finally launched it. You can go to tanglemedia.supercast.com to sign up and get 17% off during our launch week special! Once you subscribe, you’ll get instructions on how to add the premium version of the podcast to your feed, and then every time we publish a podcast you'll have an ad-free version in your feed (plus, you'll get premium, paywalled podcast content).Check out our latest YouTube video on misinformation about North Carolina here.Check out Episode 6 of our podcast series, The Undecideds. Please give us a 5-star rating and leave a comment!You can subscribe to Tangle by clicking here or drop something in our tip jar by clicking here. Help share Tangle.I'm a firm believer that our politics would be a little bit better if everyone were reading balanced news that allows room for debate, disagreement, and multiple perspectives. If you can take 15 seconds to share Tangle with a few friends I'd really appreciate it. Email Tangle to a friend here, share Tangle on X/Twitter here, or share Tangle on Facebook here.Our podcast is written by Isaac Saul and edited and engineered by Dewey Thomas. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet 75. Our newsletter is edited by Managing Editor Ari Weitzman, Will Kaback, Bailey Saul, Sean Brady, and produced in conjunction with Tangle’s social media manager Magdalena Bokowa, who also created our logo. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Working in the trades is intense. It can be stressful and painful. Some guys use drugs and alcohol to cope. But when we ask for help, or we see someone struggling with addiction... Our silence speaks volumes. See how you can help, or get help, at Canada.ca slash ease the burden. A message from the Government of Canada. Can trees help us grow more resilient to climate change? At the University of British Columbia, we believe that they can.

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Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. Coming up, paywalled podcast, Israel and Iran maybe going to a major war. We play a game where Ari tries to guess the state of the race in every swing state. Kamala Harris' bad week, we're going to talk about that. And then an ode to fall. And we talk sports and Pittsburgh Pirates history.

And we just flex our range a little bit today. You guys are going to enjoy this one. From executive producer Isaac Saul, this is Tangle. Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening, and welcome to the Tangle podcast, the place we get views from across the political spectrum, some independent thinking, and a little bit of my take. I'm your host, Isaac Saul, here with Tangle Managing Editor Ari Weitzman,

who's rocking out to AI-generated music thanks to Slack link I sent him a few moments ago. Just adding it to the world's strangest playlist. I love it. I can't get enough of these allegedly AI-generated songs. I think there's probably a clever creator out there who's integrating AI into the sound, but man, people are really smart with how they make music that sounds like somebody who's making music. It's really fun, the genre. Yeah, I'm sure some people are going to be really terrified by this whole thing. If you're not familiar, there is, well, the one that's getting a lot of attention right now

and the one that I just sent Ari is Girly Girl Productions, which has a new song called 10 Drunk Cigarettes. And they have 360,000 monthly listeners on Spotify. And the song's incredible. You should listen to it.

Pop music about doing cocaine. And it's just like, the lyrics, I will say, do seem AI generated. Like somebody scraped the worst corners of teenage TikTok land and then tried to make a song about life. Maybe. There's maybe some gray area. I think something that I responded with was this TikTok channel called Best Buy AI that I think they had a project of making 100 country songs using AI.

I don't know how much they did integrate AI. I assume at least a decent amount, if not entirely. But some of those really blow you away. By the way, this is a politics podcast, as you could probably tell. Yeah. Well, speaking of us being a politics podcast, this is our first Sunday podcast since we launched the paid subscriptions, which everybody's going to keep hearing about at least for the next few days. So worth just mentioning that we're not putting a paywall up on today's Sunday pod, but that's probably coming soon. We're going to, you know, always as with the newsletter, sometimes stuff is free, sometimes it's paid, but we're going to keep the main weekly daily podcast, I should say,

Monday through Thursday. There'll be an ad supported free version of that. You can now sign up for premium podcasts where there are no ads on them if you subscribe. And if you want to do that, you can find a link to do it in our episode description. You can also go to tanglemedia.supercast.com to do that. And then down the road, we're going to start paywalling some of the additional content that we do like this Sunday podcast. I imagine we'll release some free episodes here and there. But yeah, if you want to support this and keep it going that's the best way to do it is to just subscribe and

I'll just say in advance I appreciate everybody who's already made the jump we have close to 500 subscribers in the first day here which is awesome we're approaching what our goal was for the launch so that's super exciting and I'm really pumped about all the things to come.

And we'll find out how many people actually care at all about what we talk about on this podcast, I guess. Yeah, and all our various shenanigans that are related to politics or askance the politics or maybe just about AI and sports. And I'm sure we'll get to some of that more as we go on. Well, I know since the people who are listening to the Sunday podcast are the true Tangle homers, they've already subscribed, so they don't need to hear about us talk about it anymore. There is quite a bit of news happening in the world this week. I think the best place to start

for us is a place we usually start, which is something that we didn't cover in the newsletter or didn't get a chance to cover. In this case, I would say maybe a little bit of a controversial decision. You and I disagreed about the choice not to cover this. And I know I saw at least one reader email from somebody asking why we didn't cover it, which I fully expected. one reader email from somebody asking why we didn't cover it, which I fully expected. But we did not cover Iran's attack in Israel this week. And I'll just start by saying, this is obviously a huge story and we will cover it. It's going to happen probably Monday at this rate. We had a little bit of an internal debate because we almost covered it in the podcast

and the newsletter today on Thursday as we record this, but we didn't because we sensed that Israel is going to level some kind of response in the next day or two. And our concern was that if we covered it today, then we'd also cover it Monday and then it would kind of dominate our coverage. I also just think we've covered Israel a lot.

Some of our readers write in about that, that they just think we give too much coverage to it. We should be covering Ukraine more. We should be covering other conflicts, other wars. I always say it's not just because I have a personal interest in this topic. It's because Israel is a really, really important ally to the United States and our tax dollars and our policy and our politics probably impacts them more than it impacts just about any country in the world. So there's a reason why in this US-focused politics, we cover Israel a lot, but I didn't think it was right to cover the attacks right away. And so I feel like we should at least talk about what happened. Um,

and you know, we can certainly discuss that decision a bit. I don't know. I mean, I know you felt differently, like we should have covered it, but, uh, we're here now and haven't. And yeah, I'm on a bit of a losing streak with editorial decisions, but I also am usually the guy beating the drum saying we're covering Israel probably too much. So a bit of an interesting role reversal here this week. I think the reason why we cover Israel makes sense, as you just articulated it, but also this did feel a little different. This was a direct attack from Iran, which was, I think, now correct me if I'm wrong,

but I think Iran has only attacked Israel directly twice and both times have been in the last year. And this barrage was a significant level up. This wasn't just what we saw earlier in the year when it was a sort of what felt like a form response and almost tit for tat. We did something. Iron Dome intercepted almost every missile, but both sides can say they did something and got like some sort of stalemate victory and then moved on. This felt different. This felt like an escalation into a potential new ground invasion, potentially new waves of attacks in Israel, potentially opening up responses to Iran, just things that are going to broaden the scope of the theater significantly and a large step forward in this regional war, which as you were consistent in saying is already here, but the step forward that this

represents seems significant, though I acknowledge at this point still somewhat uncertain what that step forward is. We haven't seen fully what Israel's response is. We haven't seen fully what the United States' response is. So we're still kind of speculating on if the war is going to make that step forward into some broader regional theater. But I understand that. It was a significant, significant event that occurred. Massive. I mean, unprecedented. I don't even know. It's like these words are so overused. They fired hundreds of ballistic missiles. The Iron Dome did not capture many of them. They made ground contact in and around Tel Aviv. Somehow, I mean, miracle, nobody was killed as far as we know. on the ground or purported terrorist attack. I guess the details are still kind of emerging, but a shooting attack that happened just before the actual missiles were fired or as they were firing. And I think at least 10 people died in that attack. So it's a really, really scary time. I mean, I feel really conflicted about the situation because

on the one hand, I think this was all predictable. I think Israel provoked this in many ways with its military action and the way it's carried itself in the region, which is a really dangerous thing to say because, you know, on the heels of somebody being attacked, it's always a little risky to say something like they've provoked this or they brought this on themselves or whatever. But this is a regional conflict and Israel took some really provoking steps, provocative steps in this conflict. They've killed Iranian leaders. They've killed leaders from Hezbollah who are obviously linked to Iran. They've, as you said, you know, they suffered an attack from Iran six months ago, which was unprecedented, truly, at the time.

It was the first time Iran had ever directly attacked Israel. And kind of one of the things I've been saying and the drum I've been beating is just that this is not a coincidence that the first and only two attacks directly on Israel from Iran have come in the last six months. from Iran have come in the last six months. It's a product of the things that Israel is doing in the region and the decisions that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is making. And it's a really weird place to be for me because I'm sort of this Jew Zionist, have a lot of pro-Israel inklings and feelings in the conflict, but also I really, really, really abhor this iteration of the Israeli government. I think they've been totally captured by a radical Israeli right. I think Netanyahu is intentionally provoking war in the region,

not out of self-defense, not because it's the thing to do to make Israel the safest, but because this multi-front war feels inevitable and he wants it to happen now because that's good for him in the long term for his political future. I actually think that that is a big part of what we're seeing.

And I think it's really naive of people to think that it's not. And I know a lot of my listeners and our readers don't agree with me and vehemently disagree with me on that point, but there's a lot of evidence for it. Just look at how he's acting. And I guess the final thing I'll just say is, you know, this war, this conflict in the region started with Hamas's attack on October 7th. This podcast is going to come out on Sunday. So it'll be just the day before the one-year anniversary of October 7th. And look at where we are. I think I've been warning and saying since the very beginning that my biggest fear was a regional conflict.

It was that Israel was going to respond in such an aggressive way that other people, other factions would be drawn into the war. of what this Israeli government is doing right now, that each incursion, each push, each attack, each strike is a version of self-defense that will deter future strikes or that will kill enough of Hezbollah's leadership or Hamas's leadership or Iranians' proxies in order to keep Israel safe. Iranians' proxies in order to keep Israel safe. And every strike has basically beget more strikes. I mean, that's what we've seen. There's no doubt that Hamas has been degraded. There's no doubt that Hezbollah has been degraded. There's no doubt that both those things are probably good for the safety of Israel in the long term. But on net, I'm not convinced they're making Israel safer. And I think the evidence for that is literally right in front of us. 12 months ago, Benjamin Netanyahu had a choice about how to respond to Hamas's horrific, heinous attack. He went into Gaza,

which was something I think a lot of people felt was inevitable and reasonable based on the circumstances. But everything that came after that was, I think, decision-making that could have gone differently, and it didn't. And they've now been in Gaza for a year. They're now returning to the north of Gaza where all of this started because the job isn't complete and it's never complete. And there's always more Hamas militants to kill. They're now fighting Hezbollah through the southern part of Lebanon and the northern part of Israel because Hezbollah started firing rockets into Israel right after October 7th, and Israel immediately responded, and they've been going tit for tat and ramping up ever since, and nobody steps off the ledge.

And now they're about to attack Iran, almost certainly, in response to this latest attack, which will provoke another attack and draw more people into the war. which will provoke another attack and draw more people into the war. And somebody has to step off and step away at this point. And we just aren't seeing it and seeing no signs of it. And so it's really all my worst fears. And while Iran has agency and Hamas has agency and Hezbollah has agency, and we should never, ever lose sight of the fact that, you know, Hamas could have surrendered and turned over the hostages and likely ended this war six months ago.

Hezbollah could stop firing rockets into northern Israel and be the group that walks off the ledge, that steps off the ledge, steps back from the brink. Israel is in many ways the powerful one in this situation. They're the ones in control. They're allied with the United States, the greatest military in the world. They have proven through their attacks in Lebanon and their attacks on all of Iran's proxies in the region that they are a superior military fighting power. They could end this by moving towards some sort of ceasefire peace negotiation in earnest. And I don't see that. And I really, really, really fear for what's coming. And I think the life that Israelis are living right now is fundamentally unsafe and dangerous because of what Benjamin Netanyahu has done.

So I feel pretty strongly about that. I haven't heard convincing arguments otherwise. I know it's not solely his fault. He's obviously facing enemies, if you want to call them that, throughout the region who are deeply frightening groups to be operating with and against. But man, at some point, the responsibility is on the guy making these decisions about who to fire on next and how to respond and how to retaliate. And I just don't know how to escape that, despite how few people seem willing to accept

that reality. Despite how few people seem willing to accept that reality. I think there's a kind of a debate within that debate of whose responsibility really is it. Because I think there's that perspective that you just voiced of Netanyahu and Israel are holding the cards here. Therefore, they get to decide how this plays out. But on the other hand, something that we hear a lot, not just from readers, but you can read in op-eds, in many different sites, is that normally when in the state of war,

if there's one side that's holding a lot of cards, it's incumbent on the side that is not holding cards to sow for peace and look for a way to protect their citizens and admit that they're fighting a losing battle and stop the bleeding. And I think more than usual, we're seeing a side in Hamas that is unwilling to take those steps. We're seeing a side in Hamas that is unwilling to take those steps. I think there's a lot of complications when it comes to ceasefire talks and who's responsible for them failing. But at the same time, we are still, and this is something that continues to annoy me, we're still talking about ceasefires and we are not talking about truces or ends to conflict.

And it is sort of mind-boggling that neither side wants to pursue that. And like you just said, you can understand it's all about deterrence and shows of strength from Netanyahu. But since Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran, everybody has agency here. You do wonder, like there is a debate over who ultimately is more responsible for a failure in a peace negotiation. And I think, I don't know, I feel really split in this mentally, like for myself, I think on one hand, yes, it makes a lot of sense that Israel is the one that has the upper hand. So they're the ones that get to shape that. But they can't unilaterally come to the table. It takes multiple sides to come to the table.

And you would think that the side that has more to lose or is losing more would have more incentive to come to the table. And I just don't think that's what we're seeing. So I also find that argument convincing. So I'm not really sure which way to think about this. I mean, I can say that as an American Jew, I don't feel better about my life because of this war. I know that's true. But I don't know.

Rather than to just tell our government, I think we should be doing more to serve for peace, I don't know which version of ultimate culpability to side with more on. Or even if that's an important thing to say, instead of both sides have to do more. But then that feels like equivocation and I'm going in circles here. I feel a lot of confusion about this conflict. Yeah. I mean, I think it is confusing. I mean, the biggest issue for me is just there's no clear end game. And there hasn't been from the start. And everybody says, you know, I bring this up and there's always, there's always this response like, yeah, yeah, there is. The end game is we have to

remove Hamas from power and Israel can't accept Hamas ruling Gaza. So, okay. So who rules Gaza? Well, we don't really have an answer. It's like, you know, the Trump Affordable Care Act stuff. It's just like, yeah, we're going to remove it. I have the concepts of a plan for what comes after that. It's like, oh yeah, well, surely there's never been any issues with, you know, removing the power center of a territory or country in the Middle East and leaving this giant gaping hole of who's in control. Now that's never gone badly before ever. And then the reality is, okay, so we're fighting in Lebanon too now

and we're fighting in Lebanon because they've been shooting rockets at the border and they've pushed a bunch of Israelis out of the north. And it's, okay, yeah, I understand that. But you're also firing rockets into southern Lebanon, which is pushing Lebanese people out of their homes in southern Lebanon. You're killing way more of the Lebanese soldiers. And also, by the way, like the territory and the lines that you were fighting on are all from a war that was fought between Lebanon and Israel 40 years ago, which has all these other, you know, ramifications and complications the same way every war that Israel's been in has had.

So it's just like that war didn't give you, we're 40 years out from that and we're still having the fight now. And yet somehow there's no connection that like, you know, the ground war that's being talked about in Lebanon right now won't solve this problem. Just like the ground war 20 years ago in Lebanon didn't solve the problem because we're right back here 20 years later. We just do this over and over and over and over and over again. And there's just no creativity. I mean, it's like simple and sort of ineloquent as that is to say, it's just like, this is the best idea we've got.

Like, we're just gonna shoot rockets at each other and kill a bunch of people and then do it for as long as we can until one side gives up and then we'll just start the whole cycle over again. We'll be right back here in 20 years, just like Israel's right back in Gaza now, 20 years later. I mean, and again, I'm not trying to, I hate the way people sort of treat, you know, these Arab states or Muslim majority countries as like toddlers or something. I'm not talking about this without appreciating the fact that Lebanon has agency and Hezbollah has agency

and Hamas has agency and Iran has agency. They can all make choices too that would improve their situation going forward. But I think the fundamentals of what we're seeing right now is that these groups want Israel to leave Gaza, which is a reasonable stance for them to take. The war has been going on for a year. Tens of thousands of civilians have died. And the response has been leveled for October 7th. And they want to pressure Israel into leaving. And that's a way out is the war in Gaza ending. I mean, Hezbollah has been explicit about that. Iran and many of its spokespeople,

as untrustworthy as they are, have been explicit about that. That's not going to end this conflict forever, but it could stop the rockets falling on Israel for a little while. And there's just no interest in it. It's just the, so many people in the Israeli government, so many officials who control the levers of power, they seem to want the war. They seem to be interested in fighting the war now, and we're going to get dragged into it and it's going to

be really ugly. And I just like, you know, again, we're going to get dragged into it and it's going to be really ugly. And I just like, you know, again, we're recording this on Thursday. I have no idea what will happen between now and Sunday, but it's as scary of a time as I've ever seen in the region. And that Iran is willing to fire ballistic missiles into Tel Aviv is not a good sign about where everybody is right now in terms of interest in de-escalation or again, stepping back. So Benjamin Netzein, I use the prime minister and I really, really, really hope that Israelis will look around and consider the life that they're existing in right now and consider the man who, in my opinion, is responsible for much of it. Domestically, there are international groups and people who are responsible for it as well, but

Israelis don't get to vote for who's leading Gaza or who's the leader of Hezbollah or Lebanon. They get to vote in their elections about who their leader is. And I really, really hope they look around and consider the world that they're living in and a person, in my opinion, who's responsible for much of it and do something about it. Because the longer Netanyahu's in power, the worse I think it's going to get. And it's really scary right now. worst I think it's going to get. And it's really scary right now. Yeah. And so that's pretty strongly stated. I think it's a good argument for the people like me who feel kind of confused about how to parse this to just start with thinking about Netanyahu as having more agency here. And in that regard, the U.S. having a lot of agency

in how to deal with their ally and what kind of pressures to exert. I think I have three kind of forward-looking concerns about it in the U.S., just from like a U.S.-centric lens here. And particularly, I guess, a Jewish one as a non-religious,

but like obviously identifiable Jew. And these are just listed in order of how they will play out, probably not in terms of how concerned I am about them. But number one, immediately, I think, is the price of oil increasing. Supply from the Middle East being constricted crude price going up american prices of crude then like going up a little bit our supply starting to dwindle to deal with it um that's not a human cost but i think it does mean that we're going to see then increases in gas prices um which we're at a pretty i, not perilous or fragile time,

but a delicate time with our economic balance, with the Fed having just lowered interest rates, meaning that we're a little bit vulnerable to inflationary concerns right now. And that can have a large impact on the economy. And then there's a lot of incentives that you can think of secondarily to that, like oil industries maybe wanting those things, and like military industrial complex maybe wanting to seek like securing more of an oil like Allah Cheney in the early thousands. But those are all secondary concerns, like primarily our economy is kind of in a precarious situation. The price of oil is probably going to go up.

That is a little tenuous. The second concern that I have is the way that, you know, if price of crude goes up, would that play into U.S. troops wanting to be involved more? Especially if Israel continues to, as an ally in the region, have more of a boots-on-the-ground presence in Lebanon. And then maybe they start firing rockets back at Iran, and that starts to escalate. Would the U.S. want to move a fleet of battleships there, put a carrier or two in the region? What kind of signal would that send? What of our, the U.S.'s adversaries, what would they do to respond? That's really precarious. And that's something that I know a lot of people for obvious reasons are disinterested in.

And the third thing, which is even just discussing these, like the idea of oil going up and discussing the possibility of the way the U.S. military maneuvers is just the way that that reflects on anti-Semitic tropes. I'm already seeing some of this online. I don't know if you're seeing it either, but this notion of Jews pulling the strings to try to affect the world order, this just kind of goes back to this idea of just blindly defending whatever Israel wants to do. Being good for Jews in America is not a complex enough way of thinking about it. Because the more that we support Israel blindly, and if Israel does promote an aggressive posture in that region, that directly makes me feel less safe as a Jew. that directly makes me feel less safe as a Jew.

Because I think that that just makes this trope of like what Jews are doing to control the world is more easy to play into. And I get nervous about that. It hasn't been that long since we saw the most deadly attack on Jews in the US on US soil in Pittsburgh at the synagogue shooting. And we're never that far. Like we've gone a pretty healthy distance as Jews in the U.S. over the past century or two, but that's always there and I worry about it bubbling up. So those are just

some things that I'm worried about moving forward. Yeah. I mean, there's a real possibility, I guess, to point number one, that Israel bombs Iran's oil refineries, which, yeah, I mean, who knows how that ripples out into the global economy. And yeah, I mean, to point number three, I just, God, it's been so bad the last year. I mean, it always, I mean, to point number three, I just, God, it's been so bad the last year. I mean, it always, I really, sometimes I have a sense of humor about it. I'm struggling to have one in weeks like this, but just the, it's so, so rich. This, the entire concept that's at the center of most of these conspiracy theories, which they are.

I hate that expression, but yeah, I guess it's fair to just say they are just like Jews controlling the world and operating in some sink when it's just like, if I'm ever in a room with more than one Jew, there's an argument happening. I'm just like, I don't know if that's true.

Jew, there's an argument happening. I'm just like, I don't know if that's true. Every time that I publish a story that has anything referenced to Judaism, to Jews, to Israel, express any kind of opinion, there is like a, a fellow tribes member out there who disagrees with me about it. It's just like, we're an incredibly diverse people who is, are, are so divided among ourselves at this point, um, that it just, yeah, it, it just never ceases to kind of crack me up this, this unified worldview that is, um, that is applied to the Jewish elite as if they all just will, would agree on, even if this like cabal existed, that they could actually agree on things together. Um, I don't know. I just, it's, it's hard for me not to laugh, but, uh, yeah, I mean, this is going to impact our election. This, what's happening in the Middle East.

And we're going to talk a little bit about that at the end of the podcast. We'll be right back after this. Working in the trades is intense. We'll be right back after this. Our silence speaks volumes. See how you can help or get help at Canada.ca slash ease the burden. A message from the Government of Canada. Based on Charles Yu's award-winning book, Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu, a background character trapped in a police procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+.

Wait, break. Quick break. I understand this is like a super heavy way to start today's podcast, but the news is heavy, so we got to do it. That being said, given that we do have an election coming up and given that we're talking about the way global events like this are going to impact it. I came today with my own little game for Ari, which I guess is going to be our new thing. We're like a game show podcast now. And I think this is going to be a fairly good one. So you started by giving me a little bit of an easy path last week, and then the quote questions got a lot harder. I'm going to do two things. What I prepped you for, what I told you, and I'm going to assume that you didn't cheat here. I shouldn't have told you what

I was going to do. No, I did not cheat. Ari's hand is up in the being sworn I'm going to ask Ari what he thinks the latest polling differences between Harris and Trump in the swing states today, based on the averages of polls that we have from 538. I'm going to ask you to do this to one decimal point to make it a little bit more interesting. Okay. I thought you would just give me the numbers and I'd have to play match, but no, you're going to make me guess the exact spread. Okay. That's a lot. I'm going to ask, I'm going to ask you to guess the exact spread and then this will be the really hard part, but I think it'll be interesting. And I only am doing this because I just realized I can uh after you do the after you do the presidential races I'm gonna ask you what the senate spread is

okay uh because I think that that is interesting um and there are some interesting definitely harder. Yeah, definitely harder, but I think doable. So, all right. Maybe we should start with with overall where you think the general election is right now.

Again, this is according to 538's polls and who you think is leading in the national polling of the electorate and what you think the spread is right now as we sit here on Thursday, October 3rd. Okay. I'm noticing one state looks like it's missing from this list though.. I'll add it in. Should I blow up your spot to our listeners or do we just want to add it in? It is.

Yeah, good one. Was that something that you admitted intentionally or not? No, I just looked at the list and realized at the same time. Alright, so let's start with national polling average first. Okay with national polling average first. Okay.

National polling average between Harris and Trump, according to FiveThirtyEight's average of polls, is what you're asking, right? Yes, that is what I'm asking. Okay, I'm going to say Harris plus 3.4. Close, pretty good. It's a little bit closer than you think. It's Harris plus 2.7, which represents a little bit of a tightening. It was 2.8 for a few weeks. It was 3.3

in early September, but that was the biggest that it's been since Harris entered the race, with the exception of this brief little period in August where she was at 3.7. So we're sitting at an election that is within the margin of error right now, which, you know, God, I mean, the implications and ramifications of that are pretty wild. All right. Let's start in the state of all states, Pennsylvania. Give me your best guess on the spread of the polling averages in Pennsylvania today. Okay. I'm going to explain myself a little bit first here as I'm getting into it. I haven't been following FiveThirtyEight too much. I've been looking more at Nate Silver's blog.

I wonder if the national polling is a little bit different for him. Maybe not, but I'm just trying to give myself a bit of an out here as I get started. So PA, I'm going to say Harris plus 0.4. Very close. It's Harris plus 0.8. 0.8? Yeah. So the legal limit?

Wow. Yeah, yeah. 48% of the vote to 47.2% of Trump. This is so unbelievably close. I'm a little bit skeptical of the fact that Harris is winning here for reasons that I'll talk about maybe toward the end, but it's incredibly tight. And an even marginal polling error in Trump's direction

means he's ahead in Pennsylvania. This is the closest the race has been in Pennsylvania in as far as I can tell over a month. In September, early September, we had a pretty even race and Trump has not led in Pennsylvania In September, early September, we had a pretty even race. And Trump has not led in Pennsylvania since Harris got into the race at the end of July. So, you know, it's getting tight, but it's also been pretty consistent from 0.3 or something like that. So maybe 1.5%. I am very, very skeptical that Harris is winning, mostly because of some of the energy that I feel like I'm seeing on the ground. I'm just getting the sense from the people that I know, the Bucks County folks I talked to,

that she's not doing a great job winning them over right now. But this polling has been really consistent and they believe that they've fixed a lot of the polling issues. So I'm going to trust them. I'm realizing now that they actually do not have averages of the Senate polls in these states. That being said, I do think it's worth pointing out, and I do want to call out some of the differences we've seen in these polls. So I'll just do that after your guess. Generally speaking, Democrats are running much further ahead against Republican Senate candidates than Harris is against Trump. So for example, Emerson College has Casey up on McCormick by a full two percentage points in this race in Pennsylvania. The BSG strategy group had Casey

up by more than seven points at the end of September. Fox News had Casey up by nine points on McCormick in the September 20th to 24th week. So there's a pretty big spread here between Casey and Harris. And if I was going to make the case that Harris is up, that strength among a fellow Democrat is probably the best way to do it. But it's incredibly close. but it's incredibly close. It's going to be an incredibly close race. And I don't think people really appreciate what that means for the election and how long we might be sitting around waiting for a winner

if Pennsylvania takes a little while to count their mail-in ballots and has a slow response and all the stuff that I fear deeply. So keep an eye on that, I suppose. Uh, any other thoughts or reflections based on, you were pretty close to 0.4 is about as close as you can get. Give me a, give me a shot to do the Senate margin too. Even if there isn't like a national average, I think, you know, you, you've got access to some polling, so we can see how it fits in the spread.

I think I was going to say four plus four for Casey. So I think that's probably in that area. All right, we can do that. Okay, next up is the state of Michigan. Very interesting. Another very interesting state in the election. Where do you think Harris and Trump are in 538's polling averages in Michigan as of today?

I think Harris is up 1.9%. Wow. 1.6%. You were two for two on the leader and very, very close on both of those percentages. This is a super interesting race. Still going over too, which is interesting for harris maybe my data is outdated still going over not by a meaningful amount though and i'll say this michigan is really really interesting because there's been all these murmurs of some bad polls for Slotkin, the Democrat who's running

in Michigan. And let me guess, the messaging that's come out has very much been this race is getting a lot tighter and Harris is maybe not winning the way these polling averages are showing she is. The way they're investing money suggests that there's a good deal of worrisome internal polling happening. So I would just keep an eye on this state as something where you might be hearing in the homestretch that Trump is at an advantage, even though Harris is up in this 538 poll right now. But yeah, go ahead. Give me your guess on the Slotkin-Rogers Senate race and where you think that is according to some recent polls.

Slotkin plus 3.8. That's quite good. The New York Times-Siena College poll has it listed as slotkin plus four from September 21st to September 26th among registered voters. So that could very easily be a 3.8 spread. I don't know what the actual to the decimal percentage point, but I'll give you that one as basically hitting the bullseye. The news here though, is that Trafalgar group, which, you know, they have some conservative affiliation, so they got a lot of criticism. They just came out with a poll at the end of September showing the race even, and RMG research showed Slotkin up by six

points. And this group, Mitchell Research and Communications, which I've never heard of, showed Slotkin up by five. So there's a pretty big disparity in the polling that we're seeing coming out. But again, I'll just note that the internal polling that there's been some reporting on and some reporting is leaked to the press about it is that this race is getting a lot tighter and is a lot tighter than people maybe thought a few weeks ago. All right, that is it for Michigan. Next up is Wisconsin. The Badger State. Yeah, the Badger State. Let's start with your 538 polling average in Wisconsin. Well, I'm aware that Wisconsin has been consistently tighter than Michigan, and I assume it continues to tighten. I think Harris has been pretty good at maintaining a slightly above 1% lead there.

But I'm going to say 0.09, maybe just dipped under. The answer is plus 1.7 for Harris. Whoa, I was way off. Okay. Yeah, you were off. I just told Ari this and my internet cut out. And so I dropped and he had to wait for like two minutes for me to get back on the internet to hear this.

I just did a whole spiel. It was an awesome riff. You guys totally missed it. I wish somebody recorded it about the way the race has kind of narrowed a bit. It's really interesting. Wisconsin for Harris through most of August, she was pulling like above 3% in these averages and it's come down to less than 2% recently. So I would say the race is tightening there. I don't really know why.

I don't know why it'd be moving differently than in other places, but it seems like we are getting another barn burner and that kind of completes the blue wall of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin with three races that are all within the margin of error in polling in an era where people really don't trust polling very much because of the ways the pollsters have gotten some things wrong. So again, I mean, for election day, this is another example of a state that we could be sitting around waiting for results for a few days if it's really, really tight and they've got a lot of mail-in ballots to count. But it's going to be incredibly, incredibly close. I mean, we're less than 30 days out now and this is where we're at. All right. You want to take a swing at the Wisconsin Senate race, which Tammy Baldwin is in,

which Tammy Baldwin is in, a politician whom I hold in pretty high regard. I don't know how much you know about this race, but— You're giving me more context clues here the more you go. But yeah, she's running against Eric Hovde. I'll leave it at that. It's a Republican and Democrat on the Senate in Wisconsin. And I know that Baldwin, relative to other Congress people and senators, is somewhat popular in Wisconsin. And I know that in pretty much every swing state, the Democratic Senate candidate has been polling ahead of the

presidential candidate, whether that's Harris or Biden before her. So I will say Baldwin plus 4.5. Yeah, I mean, you're directionally right and underestimating how popular she is at the same time. The latest New York Times Santa College poll had her plus eight. And Marquette had her plus seven. And Activote had her plus eight. And of course, the Trafalgar Group had her plus two. So much narrower race. But yeah, she's pretty well in control. I think Politico, I'm sorry, excuse me.

I think Cook Political is actually rating this a lean Dem race now. They feel like she's got it pretty well in hand. So we'll see how that breaks and if there's any meaningful difference between the margins there and in some of these other swing states. difference between the margins there and in some of these other swing states. Next up is the state a lot of people have been newly focusing on, one that we've talked about quite a bit on this podcast because it unlocks a different electoral map and also one that has been in the news a lot recently. And that is the state of North Carolina, the Tar Heel state. So I'll let you go ahead first with your Trump versus Harris, and then we get to talk about the incredible Senate race happening there. Oh no, sorry. It's a gubernatorial race. I'll let you go first.

Yeah, the gubernatorial race is going to be like plus 18. Go ahead. Yeah, let's do Trump-Villers. I'm pretty certain this is a state where Trump has maintained a lead. I know that lead has been somewhat dwindling, but maybe it's pushing back lately. And I also think that the lead here remains, like I think of North Carolina and Georgia very similarly, even though Biden won Georgia in 2020 and not North Carolina, which Trump won in 2020.

I think North Carolina is a little tighter than Georgia right now. I'm going to say Trump 0.4, Trump up by 0.4 in North Carolina. Wow. Trump is up by 0.5 in North Carolina. Incredibly good guess. That is not what I would have put it at. I would have thought the margin was a little bit bigger. But yes, the race has oscillated. In early August, it was Trump by a point. It flipped all the way to Harris by the end of August. It flipped back to Trump through most of September. For a brief period in the middle of September, it went to Harris, then back to Trump, and then back to Harris. And now the polling averages, almost through the entire end of September were in Trump's favor. And for two days in September, Harris had a 0.1% lead.

And then I guess a new set of polls came out. It looks like from the Washington Post and Quinnipiac showing Trump up by two and three percentage points. Quinnipiac showing Trump up by two and three percentage points. And that has given him a 0.5% lead over Harris in the polling averages. There is no Senate race. Obviously the gubernatorial race is happening and it's not particularly close. I don't know if you want to take a swing at that. There is a, I'll tell you this, there is a Washington Post, know if you want to take a swing at that. I'll tell you this. There is a Washington Post... Very close.

Plus 15. Plus 15 was the last Washington Post poll. Yeah, it's not going well for old Mark Robinson, our now most famous anti-Semite

in the US. Maybe he's not an anti-Semite in the US. Maybe he's not an anti-Semite, but I think he probably is. But yeah, that's... Our most famous porn forum poster, for sure. Yeah, yeah. That is a super not interesting race right now, the gubernatorial race. But the North Carolina presidential race

is incredibly interesting, incredibly close, obviously opens up a whole new map. If Kamala Harris can win it, if Trump wins it, we'll be dealing with the same electoral map as usual. But if Harris flips it, it makes the rest of the election much, much, much, much, much more interesting. All right, that is it for North Carolina. We got to get to Nevada here. I'll just let you go ahead and give me your best guess. Great. I want to first open up the floor to readers to tell us,

because this is a thing I don't know, Nevada or Nevada. I say Nevada. I'm not sure. Let us know. But I'm going to say that I think I'm going to really go out on a limb here and just say push. I think it's just push in Nevada. Yeah, it's not. But I would have made the same guess.

Okay. I was actually surprised. This is the first one I think you've gotten wrong. You've gotten every single one who is winning, and you've been pretty close on all of them. I'll say edge Trump then, plus 0.1. Yeah, you went the wrong way. It's Harris, which surprised me. Really? I would have thought that Trump was winning in the polling averages,

but Harris is up by 1.1 percentage point right now. She was not previously. In August, when I was paying attention to a lot of these. Trump had a lead for a good chunk of August. But yeah, he's only touched the lead in 538's polling averages a couple times in September. And she's opened one up here a little bit in the last few weeks. Some of the polls that have come out are from groups like TIPP Insights that are being funded by American Greatness and other places that I don't find particularly trustworthy because of just their politics. But Morning Consult, Bloomberg has her plus seven, and these groups like American Insight and TIPP Insights, which I think have more of a conservative bent, have her

between plus one and plus four. So I think it's safe to say she's winning as of recently, which is very notable and extremely important for what she wants to do in this election. Hold on one second. Now, there is a set race.

Go ahead. I was just going to say, I'll add that I think throughout most of September and when we talked about no tax on tips policies and even when we met as a group for our Tango retreat, it seemed like the prevailing conventional wisdom was that Trump is up in Nevada. But I've sort of been harboring this gut level hunch

that it's going to go for Harris. And I don't have that based on really anything other than just a hunch. So I'm trying to correct that. I'm trying to correct for that and think the data is probably showing Trump has an edge, but maybe the data is going to start reaffirming this hunch that I have. I do think that that's going to happen. Yeah, I think your hunch is not totally off. I think

it's incredibly close. I think that we're going to be headed toward an election where all of these swing states are real genuine swing states by the margins and within, you know, three, four percentage points in the presidential races. There is a Senate race that is happening in Nevada. I'd be curious to hear where you think that is right now. And then before we move on, we're going to settle the correct pronunciation of this state. Okay. So a cliffhanger a little bit. I'm going to say, again, the Democrats. So that's Jackie Rosen, I'm pretty sure, in Nevada. I'm going to say that Rosen is up 4.5. The polls on this are all over the place.

Rosen is winning, so you're right again there. The latest one from Insider Advantage has her plus eight. And then the poll that came out before that from Atlas Intel was plus two. And then the BSG strategy group had Rosen plus 14, which doesn't seem possible. All right. And one last thing here. It's Nevada. I only know this because I used to mispronounce this all the time and people complained to me about it early on in the podcast, actually. But yeah, there's entire YouTube videos where like local news stations go out and they talk to people. I'll send you one right now. We could even drop it in the pod.

How do you say what state we're in right now? Nevada. What? Nevada. Nevada. Nevada. What? Nevada. Nevada. Ding, ding, ding. I would call it Nevada. Nevada.

Nevada. I've heard that it's Nevada. So I would go with Nevada. Nevada. Nevada. How do you pronounce it? Uh-huh. Arizona.

No, not in Arizona. Nevada. Nevada? Nevada. Okay, you got it right. Oh yeah? Nevada. Nevada.

Nevada. Nevada? Nevada? Do you know what the first letter is? Nevada. Nevada. Nevada. Nevada. Okay, you got it right. Oh, yeah? Nevada. Nevada. Nevada. Nevada? Do you know the correct way to say Nevada?

Oh, no, I don't. It's Nevada. Nevada. Nevada. I need an accent there, okay? Nevada. Nevada. Nevada. I think we all have it straight now.

Nevada. Happy Nevada Day. Yeah, Nevada is a classically incorrect pronunciation of how to say Nevada, which took me a really long time to break. So good luck on your journey, I guess. Yeah, I'll take some time as a classically incorrect person to unlearn that habit. Sorry, Nevadians. I'm a fan of your state.

I know a decent amount of trivia about it. And I feel that I've let you all down. And please forgive me. I love that humility. That's the real Tangle spirit right there. All right. We've got a couple more to go. The next state up is Georgia. And

this was obviously a huge state in the 2020 election. Biden flipped it, which effectively changed the entire election. And I'd like to hear where you think we're at right now. like to hear where you think we're at right now. Well, I did sort of, um, kind of spoil where I was going to be leading with Georgia. Um, I think that Trump is up in Georgia by more than he's up in North Carolina. And I'm going to say 1.1% to Trump. Oh, God. I'm really rooting for you because you keep getting so close and doing it to the decimals so difficult.

This one was 1.2%. If we had done it just a few days ago, you would have gotten it. But yeah, it's 1.2%. So once again, a 0.1 decimal point miss, but incredibly close. It's frustrating. And you are now, what is that?

How many states have we done? Let's see. One, two, three, four, five, six. You're five for six on who's winning. Yeah, you botched the silver state. All right, last one up is Arizona. There's no Senate race in Georgia. Tell me what you think.

Arizona, I'm going to say is Trump plus 2.5. Trump plus 1.2, which is also closer than I would have guessed. I think I would have said Trump by two points or even. Part of that is because we've gotten some bad polling for Harris just in the last few weeks. Emerson College had a Trump plus four, which is maybe influencing my perspective a bit on that. And that's one of the big pollsters that we definitely watch pretty regularly. So, yeah, it's super, super tight there in the presidential race. There is also a Senate race happening, which is all sorts of interesting. Ruben Gallego and Carrie Lake,

care to offer your best bet there on where you think the, I guess, the region of the separation between the two, given that we don't have actual averages. I think Gallego is probably trouncing Lake. Trouncing is relative. I'm going to just say seven. The very last poll that we have between Ruben Gallego and Kerry Lake is a seven-point polling difference for Ruben Gallego. So you finally get in. You finally nailed one.

Emerson college had Ruben Gallego plus 11 and BSG. I stopped listening at seven. I had Ruben Gallego plus 13. It's a, yeah, it's a pretty Diego-looking race. I think that one too, if I were a betting man, I would put some money on the Democrats. But again, some split-ticket voting going to be happening in that election because there are apparently people out there who will vote for Ruben Gallego and Donald Trump.

And more people than a lot of Americans are probably, probably willing to believe or understand. We'll be right back after this. The faster money and data move, the further your business can go to a seamless digital future for Canadians. Let's go faster forward together. In life, interact.

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Quick break. Quick break. So I'll just say to wrap all that up, I'd rather be Harris than Trump, I think, in the election right now, just based on the polling averages we have, not just from 538, but from a lot of the outfits to do this kind of stuff, the race is maybe not trending in her direction, but that plus the kind of dominance that Democrats have, I mean, listen, Democrats are going to lose the Senate almost assuredly because of the states that are up this year. You know, we're only talking about the swing state Senate races where Democrats are performing well, but they're going to lose a lot of Senate races in states that aren't swing states. And they're almost certainly

going to lose their majority. But I think it's really strong, good signals for them that things are the way they are. So if you're a Democrat and that's something you're rooting for, I think, again, I'd rather be Harris than Trump if those were the shoes I was in. That being said, before we get out of here, I did just want to talk a little bit about what I think has maybe been an underrated bad week for the Kamala Harris campaign. We talk about October surprises, what's going to come out, what's going to change between now and 30 days from now. We're about 30 days from the election. The last few days alone, just in the first, you know, this is October 3rd, we're recording this,

the first three days of this month, we've had the dock strike, Iran striking Israel, Iraq strike, Iran striking Israel, the fallout from Hurricane Helene in North Carolina, which, you know, I've did a whole podcast and YouTube video about this. So you guys know how I feel. I think a lot of the criticisms are BS, but there's a political price being paid, no doubt. I mean, the stuff that I think is BS is still spreading like wildfire on social media and news outlets. It's happening on the ground. I'm sure some people have actually not gotten the kind of treatment they've deserved from rescue crews or the attention they deserve from the federal government. And there's going to be a price for that for the people who are in power, which is Harris. So they've got the hurricane fallout. And then Tim Walz kind of got

beat up a little bit, in my opinion, in the debate. That all just happened in the last few days. So as good as these polls might be for Harris and some Senate Dems, I think it's been a bad week for Harris on the election trail and weirdly not seeing any real commentary about that, but really, really difficult few days for her in terms of issues that are fairly big that could become much, much bigger, which I would put Iran and Israel going to war in that bucket. And then the dock strike definitely going into that bucket. If the longshoremen hold out on the strike, there are going to be real economic implications. And then smaller issues like Tim Walls, who really cares about the debate. I don't think a lot of people are going to, you know, worry over that. And the hurricane stuff, not a small issue, but I think the

political ramifications of that are probably not as important as people want them to be or think they will be. But, uh, while Isaac's yawning and trying to catch up on his sleep, I'll jump in and say, I think a week from now, we're going to be looking back at this episode and say, remember when we were talking about the VP debate, that's crazy because it doesn't matter at all. Though I acknowledge and agree that Walls lost to Vance, and Vance looked great during most of the debate. I think in a week's time, it's going to be completely out of our periphery. I think that's probably a fair assessment.

All right. We're coming up on time here. So we got to wrap things up. Just a reminder that if you want to support this podcast, we have a new way for you to do that. And you're going to have to listen to these annoying promos every now and then. But yeah, go to tanglemedia.supercast.com, become a subscriber, and or just click the link in the episode description to do that.

It's time to enter the grievance zone. The airing of grievances. Between you and me, I think your country is placing a lot of importance on shoe removal. I've got a good grievance this week. Do you want to go first or second then with it? I'll go second. Okay. Then I've got something that's very seasonal.

I'm a guy who loves autumn. I'm a big fall guy. Me too. Hell yeah. Fall bros. Like the little chill in the air when you wake up in the morning, the variance of the feeling of temperature starts to get a little chilly. Days get a little shorter.

It just makes you want to like bundle up a bit. Football's on. Nothing better in the fall than like walking out on a crisp night, going to like a sports bar, seeing your breath for like one of the first times, getting in, taking your fall coat off, ordering like an Oktoberfest beer and sitting down to watch your favorite football team play a game. That's just like American autumn. One of the saddest things about the autumn season

is the way that it aligns with election season. And I am just getting blown up with spam texts and calls from political organizations. I made one donation during the primary season in like 2016. And I have never been able to get myself extricated from the list. I have no joke. Every time I've picked up my phone, I've seen that I have a notification. Yep. Just now I have a text notification that I have a text and spam and that is constant. And it's all, we need your support. Now we're losing this race. Consider giving $5 by midnight. Your gift will be matched. I don't do not give a fuck. Stop asking me for money. The more that you ask me for money, the more likely I am to vote against

you. I promise you that there are more people like me. How many times have I to some list said, lose this number, delete every piece of information you have about me. Do not give my information to other accounts. And it's like whackable. It just keeps spreading. It's like Hercules finding the Hydra. You can cut off a head and two or three more are going to grow in its place. I'm considering just changing my phone number. I cannot, and I've, I love my phone number. I've had it since I was a baby, but I cannot deal with all of these campaign ads. Like, I guess, yes, I can deal with it. You just ignore them. But for the love of God, leave me alone. It's so awful. And it's the only thing that I don't like about the season. Like, let me get my pumpkins and my acoustic fall vibe

playlists on and light some indoor candles and wear flannel and feel happy and ignore all of this. Please, just stop. I'll bookend that by just saying that my first job ever after college was in journalism. So I've never donated to a political group out of like an ethical standard that I had for myself. And I still get all those text messages because I subscribe to all these different campaigns emails in order to get updates on what their

campaigns are doing and where their events are. And there's no, I mean, there are press mailing lists, but like when Donald Trump or Joe Biden are asking people for money, I want to know what that looks like, like what they're centering in the case. It's like, it's informative as somebody who's writing and reporting about this stuff. So I always sign up for these lists. And over the years, like there's a big Senate race, I'll sign up for their mailing list and see what they're talking about and their ads. And, and somewhere along the line, they got my phone number, uh, and I have it on both sides. So I'll get like the Joe Biden's letting in the legal immigrants, destroying our country, like send us $5 to stop them from raping your daughters. And then like

Donald Trump is going to monitor women's pregnancies all across the country and give us 20 bucks. So he stays out of your bedroom and doesn't watch you make love to your wife. And I'm like, oh my God, like this is, it's so excessive. And it's the, it's like, Like this is, it's so excessive and it's like partisan news, but on volume 1 million, which is the worst part about it. And then they're asking you for money. So yeah, I'm very sympathetic to your grievance today, which isn't always the case, but you have my heart on that one.

Well, interestingly enough, mine's also seasonal. I, similar to you, love the fall. And as people might've noticed as I was reacting in real time to your description of the fall, I also love football. I am a diehard- But you're a little more cursed with the franchise that you were saddled with. Yeah, which is part of my grievance today.

I am a diehard Washington Commanders slash Redskins slash Washington football team fan. I have been my whole life. I am, it is, you know, I'm a huge basketball fan too, but football is my favorite sport. And I'm a Brooklyn Nets fan, New Jersey to Brooklyn Nets. So my franchises keep changing names or locations. But I care more about Washington football than anything. It's like, it's so much more important to me than even basketball. And I'm a big basketball fan.

I'm sick. You know, like my team loses. It'll put me in a sour mood for a good 24 hours. So I've been in a sour mood on Monday mornings for many years because my football team has sucked for many years. I was born in 1991. the Washington football team won a Super Bowl in 1992, that year after I was born. And they have not won a Super Bowl since. In fact, I believe they're the only NFL team to not win 11 games since then in a season. And my dad and I always joke that I'm like the curse to the franchise. I mean, I can relate.

I think the Steelers didn't win 11 games a couple times in my lifetime. So I know the feeling. Shut up, dude. It's just like, shut up. So this year, the Washington Commanders are looking very good out of the gate. They're 3-1. They have Jaden Daniels, our savior. The maybe most exciting best rookie quarterback I've ever seen,

like Robert Griffin III, but way better at throwing the football and a lot more poised as a leader. And I am just over the moon. football and a lot more poised as a leader. And I am just over the moon. And my grievance is that I am so traumatized by the experience of watching this football team for over 30 years and watching them be so bad for over 30 years that I'm actually having a hard time enjoying it. It is exciting. And them winning three of their first four games is exhilarating. And my dad and I are, you know, we either watch the games together or we always call each other when the first touchdown happens and we talk and then we text throughout the game. But man, I am just, I'm,

I'm like a nervous Nelly. I can't even, I'm just, I'm waiting for Jaden Daniels to tear his ACL or get obliterated by some linebacker or some horrible thing that I'm just, I'm waiting for Jaden Daniels to tear his ACL or get obliterated by some linebacker, some horrible thing that I just like, I know it's coming in my bones because it's happened over and over again. And so despite the fact that like, we're getting all this national media attention and Stephen A. Smith is like, they're a top five football team. And it's like, we have a real team this year and we might actually be really good. I'm just certain that at some point the floor is going to come out, and it's going to end terribly. And that's my grievance for the week is that even now that things look like

they might actually be getting better. We got rid of our owner, Dan Snyder, who is a horrible person outside of football. That's a big win, regardless of what happens. Yeah, regardless of what happens. He was a terrible owner. He destroyed the franchise and also seemed just like a really,, regardless of what happens. Yeah, regardless of what happens. He was a terrible owner. He destroyed the franchise and also seemed just like a really, really, really terrible person. And there are all these reasons to be elated.

And I'm just nervous. I'm just having a hard time even being able to enjoy it. And that's my grievance for this week. Fair enough. I mean, to a vastly different degree, like unironically, like snideness aside, the Pirates have been terrible my whole lifetime. Like they won some World Series,

a couple of World Series in the 70s and have made the playoffs four times in my lifetime. Three of those years were in a row. And I've never known what it's like to be a real baseball fan. Like I think there have been times I've tried to get into the sport. The Pirates ownership always sells off their most promising players and guys that the fan base really gets drawn to and they just disappear. And I know what it's like to have ownership that doesn't value winning. The thing that I can't commiserate with that I feel a lot of empathy for you about is that I've just never

been as drawn to baseball as I have been to football. So if that were my team, like the team that I care the most about watching that happen over and over, that would scar me too. I'm rooting for you guys. The NFC East is routinely the league's most entertaining conference and is filled to the gills with teams that are really fun to root against for different reasons. And the team that I root against the least is Washington. So I'm always pulling for you guys, especially because you've got NFC or AFC North opponents

the next couple of weeks. So go get them. You can do it. I love it. Yeah, we're playing the Ravens in a few weeks, which I'm excited about. Fun fact about the Pittsburgh Pirates. That was the first place that I interned as a writer was as a Pittsburgh Pirates beat reporter while I was the sports editor for the Pitt News. Yeah. I went to those games. I sat in the press box for Pittsburgh Pirates home games. I shadowed reporters.

It was unbelievably dark. So depressing. That is the franchise. I mean, that stadium is maybe the best stadium in baseball. Absolutely gorgeous. Incredibly fun to go to games there. But man, in that press box, it was like these grizzled,

like 30-year vet reporters who had been there for the glory days, you know, and had watched the franchise fall. And they were, it was dark, man. I mean, it was like cold chicken wings and bad mood. And I was, I'll never forget that. And that was some of my first experience being around really experienced journalists

was in the Pittsburgh Pirates press box. Well, maybe I can end with a fun joke that my grandpa told me right when they were building PNC Stadium and they were tearing down Three Rivers, which was, he said that he claimed to know the architect behind the stadium personally. And he said that the initial designs had it so the men's bathrooms were arranged with the urinals underneath one-way glass that was facing the field of play. Because that way, when you go to the bathroom, you could pee and see. That's really, really bad. It's really, really great. And love my grandpa for that joke.

He nailed it. I think it's a great way to end. I'll give you a new grievance for next week, which is complaining about my puns. I get it. Yep. It's already written down. All right.

We got to get out of here. We'll see you guys soon. P and C you later. Take care. Peace. Our podcast is written by me, Isaac Saul, and edited and engineered by Dupie Thomas. Our script is edited by Ari Weitzman,

Will Kabak, Bailey Saul, and Sean Brady. The logo for our podcast was made by Magdalena Bokova, who is also our social media manager. The music for the podcast was produced by Diet 75. And if you're looking for more from Tangle, please go check out our website at readtangle.com. That's readtangle.com. Bye.