Tangle - The surprise French election results.

Starting point is 00:00:00 From Searchlight Pictures comes A Real Pain, one of the most moving and funny films of the year. Written and directed by Oscar-nominated Jesse Eisenberg and starring Eisenberg and Emmy Award winner Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain is a comedy about mismatched cousins who reunite for a tour through Poland to honor their beloved grandmother. The adventure takes a turn when the pair's old tensions resurface against the backdrop of their family history. A Real Pain was one of the buzziest titles at Sundance Film Festival this year, garnering rave reviews and acclaim from both critics and audiences alike. See A Real Pain only in theaters November 15th.

Starting point is 00:00:34 Whether renting, renewing a mortgage, or considering buying a home, everybody has housing costs on their minds. For free tools and resources to help you manage your home finances, visit Canada.ca slash it pays to know. A message from the Government of Canada. Based on Charles Yu's award-winning book, Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu, a background character trapped in a police procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web,

Starting point is 00:01:04 his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. From executive producer Isaac Saul, this is Tangle. some independent thinking, and a little bit of my take. I'm your host, Isaac Sahl, and on today's episode, we are going to be talking about the elections in France. Yes, doing some international news today. I am excited about that. I'm going to pass it over to John to tackle today's main topic, and then I'll be back, as always, for my take. I take. Thank you, Isaac, and welcome, everybody. Here are your quick hits for today. First up, President Biden will attend a gathering of NATO leaders in Washington today after continuing to insist he will stay in the 2024 race. Separately amid concerns about Biden's health, a Parkinson's expert reportedly visited the White House eight

Starting point is 00:02:25 times in eight months, though the White House physician denied the visits had anything to do with Biden's health. Number two, at least 41 civilians were killed and more than 100 wounded by a barrage of Russian missile strikes in Ukraine, including one on the country's largest children's hospital in the capital of Kieviv. Number three, Columbia University removed three administrators from their positions after text messages surfaced showing them making disparaging remarks about the campus's Jewish community. Number four, the number of people without power in Texas rose to three million after Hurricane Beryl made landfall as a Category 1 hurricane. And number five, the Republican National Committee removed federal

Starting point is 00:03:05 limits on abortion from its party platform, opting instead for a states-led approach championed by former President Donald Trump. Turning overseas today, a surprise win in France's legislative elections after President Macron took a gamble to dissolve parliament following a far right surge. France's government is in political limbo after a stunning defeat of a right wing coalition in the second round of voting in legislative elections. People rallied yesterday to celebrate the left-wing alliance winning most of the parliamentary seats. President Emmanuel Macron's centrist coalition came in second.

Starting point is 00:03:52 However, neither party received a majority, leaving France to face a political deadlock. It was widely thought Marine Le Pen's alliance would win based on the first round of elections that took place last month. Over the weekend, a leftist coalition called the New Popular Front won a plurality of seats in the 2024 French legislative election in a surprise upset over a right-wing movement that was expected to dominate the election. However, the New Popular Front failed to win a majority, leaving open the possibility of a hung parliament, which would be an unprecedented outcome in French history. As a reminder, France is in the middle of a snap parliamentary election.

Starting point is 00:04:30 On June 9th, after French President Emmanuel Macron's resistance party lost to Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally Party in the European Union elections, Macron dissolved the National Assembly, the lower house in France's parliament, and called for a snap parliamentary election. France splits its executive branch duties between its elected president and its prime minister, who is selected by its parliament. The current prime minister is Gabriel Attal, who is also from Macron's party but plans to resign in the near future. Pollsters and pundits in France widely predicted that these elections would lead to France's first far-right government since World War II. However, after two rounds of voting, Le Pen's RN finished third behind the NFP and Macron's centrist ensemble coalition. Prior to the second round of the elections, over 200 centrists and left-wing candidates strategically dropped out of their

Starting point is 00:05:20 races in a bid to limit the RN's legislative gains. No single party or alliance won a majority of seats in the National Assembly, meaning the country could be left with a hung parliament if the fractured political groups are unable to form a governing coalition. Parliamentary coalitions are not common in France, so the government will face a considerable challenge to stabilize by the start of the 2024 Olympic Games in Paris on July 26th. In the wake of Sunday's result, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the far-left leader of the NFP, demanded Parliament name him prime minister and called on Macron to allow the NFP to govern. Le Pen, meanwhile, framed the defeat as sowing seeds for the future, noting that RN gained seats and suggested that the party's

Starting point is 00:06:03 victory is merely postponed, a reference to her aspiration to win the 2027 presidential election at the end of Macron's term. The surprising results came just days after Keir Starmer became the United Kingdom's new prime minister. Starmer's Labour Party won 412 of the parliament's 650 seats, ending 14 years of conservative dominance in Britain and resetting the country's politics. Today, we're going to take a look at some of the reactions to the French elections with some takes from abroad and here in the U.S., and then Isaac's take. We'll be right back after this quick commercial break. Whether renting, renewing a mortgage, or considering buying a home,

Starting point is 00:06:55 everybody has housing costs on their minds. For free tools and resources to help you manage your home finances, visit Canada.ca slash ItPaysToKnow. A message from the government of canada based on charles u's award-winning book interior chinatown follows the story of willis woo a background character trapped in a police procedural who dreams about a world beyond chinatown when he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime willis begins to unravel a criminal web his family's buried history and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+.

Starting point is 00:07:29 Alright, first up, let's start with what the left is saying. The left is heartened by the defeat of Le Pen's national rally, but some worry that the far right remains ascendant. Others suggest the results show a sudden embrace of progressive policies. In the Washington Post, Lee Hochstader wrote about relief and elation at a victory that might be pyrrhic. The elation among center and left French voters arises mainly from pre-election polls that turned out to be massively wrong. But beating flawed polls isn't the same as winning. On the numbers, national rally, until recently seen as beyond the pale,

Starting point is 00:08:12 remains on a meteoric trajectory, Hochstadter wrote. Setting aside that shortfall versus expectations, national rally's rise, a 60% increase in legislative seats in just two years, is staggering. Its momentum is clear. Le Pen's most useful asset might be Macron himself, whose bloc lost one-third of its legislative seats in Sunday's election, a disastrous result even though it bested polling predictions. The president, high-handed, brimming with self-regard,

Starting point is 00:08:36 is the object of every political faction's disdain, Hochstetter wrote. Lacking the votes to form a government on its own, the left, or some part of it, might have no choice but to enter a coalition of convenience with Macron's bloc if France is to avoid paralysis. In Newsweek, Aaron Solomon wrote, France's lurch to the left is seismic. For those looking for an American analogy for Sunday in France, there simply isn't one. The best I've got is that while Lucy was about to pull away the football as Charlie Brown kicked it, a jaguar ate both of them and the ball rolled to Snoopy,

Starting point is 00:09:09 who realized it was made of solid gold, Solomon wrote. Where we are today is witnessing a seismic shift in the French political landscape and a shocking triumph of a far-left governing coalition has practically defied comprehension throughout the nation and beyond. The unprecedented outcome defying predictions and historical patterns signifies not merely a political victory, but a profound transformation in the country's ideological terrain. The NFP built its campaign on promises of sweeping reforms. These policies resonated profoundly with the population increasingly

Starting point is 00:09:40 disillusioned by the status quo and the perceived inadequacies of centrist and right-wing governance, Salomon said. Sunday's election did more than just put a new set of leaders into power. It exposed deep-seated frustrations and aspirations among the French people. The traditional parties, particularly those on the center-right and center-left, found themselves badly outflanked by a surprisingly slick coalition that promised not just change, but actual societal transformation. All right, that is it for what the left is saying, which brings us to what the right is saying. The right says the elections produced surprising results, but few true winners. Others frame the outcome as a temporary setback for the French conservative movement.

Starting point is 00:10:29 The Wall Street Journal editorial board wrote, Macron loses as the left rises in France. So much for the right-wing takeover of the French Republic. French voters on Sunday appear to have handed a narrow plurality to the political left while producing a divided National Assembly. None of this will make life easier for French President Emmanuel Macron, who was the main architect of this political muddle, the board said. Everyone but the left is a loser here, but the RN still has increased its seat count in the newly elected National Assembly from 87 in

Starting point is 00:11:00 the last one, and everyone will remember that RN and its allies led last weekend's first round with 33% of the vote. Mr. Macron's party's likely drop to second place in the new assembly shows that for many voters this became an anyone-but-Macron strategy. French voters are as worried as ever about immigration, assimilation, crime, and an aloof political class to border it. Macron bet that voters remain uncertain enough about Ms. Le Pen that they'd think twice about electing her party. Mr. Macron and his unlikely allies have three years until the next presidential election to prove they're better than Ms. Le Pen would be at solving the problems that matter to voters.

Starting point is 00:11:38 In the Washington Examiner, Jeremiah Poff argued the victory will be short-lived for France's left flank. The results of Sunday's second-round parliamentary elections were far from the rebuke of Marine Le Pen's right-wing National Party that it was portrayed as. To begin with, no party received as many votes as the National Rally Party did. But due to the electoral system of the nation, both the far-left New Popular Front and Macron's Centrist Ensemble Party secured more seats in the nation's parliament, Poff said. Nevertheless, the national rally won 53 more seats in parliament than it won in the previous election.

Starting point is 00:12:11 The only reason that the result was seen as a disappointment for the right was due to pre-election projections that the party would be the largest in parliament. The French parliament will now be so bitterly divided that gridlock will rule in the short term and new elections will loom as a possibility, as long as the current partisan makeup of the legislature endures. No party secured even close to the number of seats necessary to form a new working majority, and a coalition between bitterly divided rivals seems unlikely. Should new elections be called before 2029, the national rally's rise is likely to continue, and the revival of the left in

Starting point is 00:12:45 France will prove to be nothing more than a mirage. All right, that's it for what the left and the right are saying, which brings us to what some writers in Europe are saying. Some French commentators are relieved by the result, but worry that stable governance will prove elusive in the years ahead. Other writers in Europe criticize Macron for leading France to this chaotic moment. In Le Monde, Jérôme Fanoglio wrote about putting an end to the worst of politics. On Sunday, a clear majority of French people rejected the worst of politics, casting their votes against the more than nine million fellow citizens who voted for the RN. But this number alone prevents us from

Starting point is 00:13:29 feeling more than a brief sense of relief, Finoglio said. The Far-Re party continues to have strong support across large swaths of the country. By gaining several dozen seats, it will bolster its finances and send its largest ever representation in the new Ensemble National. It will also take advantage of the opportunity to further develop its grassroots network, which is a key aspect of its strategy to gain recognition. With this new Ensemble, and a majority yet to be built, there is an opportunity to implement a different policy, one that is calmer but no less resolute.

Starting point is 00:14:05 This entails preventing the far right from monopolizing the support of those who feel abandoned by addressing issues such as access to healthcare, education and public services, the quest for fairness in the climate transition, the reduction of inequalities, the dismantling of urban ghettos, and the fight against drug trafficking, which are driving the RN vote. In the Telegraph, John Kieger said,

Starting point is 00:14:21 Macron made France ungovernable. France's shock election result, giving the radical left-wing New Popular Front coalition the largest grouping in the National Assembly, signals a U-turn for French politics. But the overall result implies something far more grave for the Fifth Republic, Kieger wrote. For a political system which for 66 years

Starting point is 00:14:40 has had no culture of compromise, forming a durable European-style rainbow coalition will be painful and may test the regime to destruction. The Fifth Republic is an astute blend of British parliamentarianism and American presidentialism. It produced stable governing majorities until Emmanuel Macron dynamited the majority parties in 2017 by creating his extreme center. Convinced that France had attained centrist nirvana, he paid little heed to the radical fringes. Now they have engulfed his world, Kieger said.

Starting point is 00:15:10 For the last seven years, Emmanuel Macron boasted of his hyper-presidentialism, Jupiter, Maitre des Arloges. The National Assembly became a mere rubber stamp for presidential policies. When the chamber dared contest them, like pension age reform, a constitutional device railroaded bills through without a vote. That hubris got its comeuppance yesterday. And now let's head over to Isaac for his take.

Starting point is 00:15:42 All right, that is it for what the left and the right are saying, as well as some takes from abroad. So listen, if you are one of those people who skips what the left and the right are saying and head straight to my take in the podcast or the newsletter, please go back and listen to what the people who we just quoted have to say about this election. Every one of them has a deeper and more meaningful understanding of French politics and the meaning of this outcome than I do, and you should definitely weigh their opinions more than the one that I'm about to give. First, let me just say this race caught my interest mostly through my own self-centered lens. As a Jew here in America, I was very interested in stories about how Jews in France were struggling

Starting point is 00:16:25 with their decision in the election. National Rally has taken a strong pro-Israel stance, but its founder is widely and rightly described as an anti-Semite. Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the leader of the leftist bloc that prevailed, is ardently pro-Palestine, but he's also been accused of veering into anti-Semitism with his rhetoric. President Macron has described the leftist bloc as, quote, guilty of anti-Semitism, end quote, feeling stuck between two blocs that don't represent them. I'm also fascinated by how aspects of this election mirror issues facing the U.S. Based on everything I've read, Aaron Solomon, under what the left is saying, is correct. There simply isn't a U.S. analogy appropriate to explain this election outcome. But I think it can be framed in a way to make it easier for our mostly American audience to

Starting point is 00:17:13 comprehend. Imagine our most progressive politicians, think Senator Bernie Sanders, or a more experienced Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, becoming Senate Majority Leader or Speaker of the House, and suddenly having the largest coalition in Congress. Now imagine that happening in an election Donald Trump was expected to win, bringing a governing majority with him. It is, simply put, left-wing populism ascendant, with a focus on fighting economic inequality, aggressively addressing climate change, and expanding welfare programs. It's hard to overstate exactly how big the changes could be if Melojean gets what he wants. He has promised to freeze prices on food, energy, and fuel, to tax the rich to the tune of $162 billion, to abolish the increase in pension age to 64, bringing it down to 60,

Starting point is 00:18:02 and to raise the monthly minimum wages to 1,600 euros, or about $1,700. Of course, Mélenchon isn't going to get everything he wants. He's going to need to find a way to form a coalition, which will require compromise and moderation, so it's not entirely clear yet how this will all play out. It's worth noting Mélenchon also has a reputation for loathing the U.S. and Americans, telling Le Monde in 2011 that, quote, the Yankees represent everything I detest, a pretentious and arrogant empire made up of ignoramuses of pitiful leaders, end quote. It'll be interesting to see if outright resentment of the U.S. becomes prominent enough in France's parliament to impact foreign policy, though

Starting point is 00:18:44 that typically falls under the president's purview, not the prime minister's. Perhaps most interesting is that Mélenchon and his coalition pulled this off despite 73% of the French having negative opinions of him, a larger share than Le Pen has. His victory isn't just being credited to a divided opposition, but also a masterful campaign that focused on reaching young voters through social media and large in-person rallies. American politicians could take note, though neither major party candidate in our upcoming election seems particularly interested in prioritizing younger voters. More broadly, this outcome, paired with the United Kingdom's recent elections, undercuts the narrative of a far-right on the rise across Europe. Headline after headline has been written about that trend as a statement of fact, but the truth seems to be more nuanced,

Starting point is 00:19:31 that the center is dissolving while more fringe elements on the right and left are gaining popularity. It's true that Le Pen's National Rally Party continues to gain seats every year, but the right-wing movement presumably coalescing in Europe seems to be deeply divided, which leaves a lot of questions about just how influential or powerful it will be. As our election season ramps up, my final takeaway would be this. Polls are indicators, but votes still matter most. When people ask me why I think Democrats still have an advantage in the 2024 election despite so many polls showing Trump and Republicans ahead, my answer is always the same. Look at the election results. In France, a smart campaign and a fractured opposition proved how little polls matter. In the U.S.,

Starting point is 00:20:15 Democrats have continued to outperform polls and win competitive elections since 2016. Until that pattern changes, I think polling is just one piece of a much larger puzzle. It can guide us and show us trends and give us clues about what lies ahead. But voters will write the final chapter. We'll be right back after this quick break. From Searchlight Pictures comes A Real Pain, one of the most moving and funny films of the year. Written and directed by Oscar-nominated Jesse Eisenberg and starring Eisenberg and Emmy Award winner Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain is a comedy about mismatched cousins

Starting point is 00:20:58 who reunite for a tour through Poland to honor their beloved grandmother. The adventure takes a turn when the pair's old tensions resurface against the backdrop of their family history. A Real Pain was one of the buzziest titles at Sundance Film Festival this year, garnering rave reviews and acclaim from both critics and audiences alike. See A Real Pain only in theaters November 15th. Are you sure you parked over here? Do you see it anywhere?

Starting point is 00:21:22 I think it's back this way. Come on. Hey, you're going the wrong way. Feeling distracted? You're not alone. Whether renting, considering buying a home, or renewing a mortgage, many Canadians are finding it hard to focus with housing costs on their minds. For free tools and resources to help you manage your home finances and clear your head, visit Canada.ca slash ItPaysToKnow.

Starting point is 00:21:44 A message from the Government of Canada. Based on Charles Yu's award-winning book, Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu, a background character trapped in a police procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history,

Starting point is 00:22:05 and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. A quick reminder, if you like international news stories and you want more of them, we actually have an international news partner. This is not an advertisement. This is a genuine partner. We turn to Daily Chatter for insight into important international news stories like this one, and we try to use them to learn more about the world every day. Daily Chatter is the largest daily newsletter devoted exclusively to global news, and they share our commitment to nonpartisan, unbiased reporting. They often tell their readers that if they're interested in American news to go read Tangle, and we like to do the same for them. So

Starting point is 00:22:55 if you'd like, you can go sign up for Daily Chatter by going to dailychatter.com. The first two weeks there are free. All right, that is it for my take, which brings us to your questions answered. This one's from Rod in Naperville, Illinois. Rod said, Tango did a pretty good job covering the debate, except for one thing. Why did you not talk more about RFK Jr. and the real debate?

Starting point is 00:23:19 So many people don't like the two choices for candidates and want a third, but there is a third option. The media machine just won't talk about it. Why? Okay, so listen, I just want to speak for ourselves here. It's not that we're refusing to talk about RFK Jr. after the last presidential debate. It's just that he missed the cut and he didn't make it onto the debate stage. You're right about a lot of corporate media outlets ignoring Kennedy or downplaying his campaign. And you're right that partisan outlets either prop up their preferred candidate or tear down their opposing party. That's something we're trying to fight at Tangle, and there's not a lot of room in that model for a third option. So if you're asking why media outlets are ignoring

Starting point is 00:24:00 Kennedy, it's simply so they can focus on Biden or Trump. I'll add that I think that's opportunism, but not necessarily a permanent flaw in our media ecosystem. Extremely partisan media is partially a consequence of our two-party system, where we have low turnout primaries that advance candidates who don't represent most Americans, who are encouraged to vote more against an extreme candidate in the general election than for a more moderate one. Tangle hasn't ignored Kennedy either. We took a deep dive into his campaign a few weeks ago and have dedicated three other additions to his candidacy in the past year. In the most recent piece, we acknowledged the strength of Kennedy's campaign and the persistence of his support.

Starting point is 00:24:40 We also made the point that Kennedy's team is going to get one big opportunity to make a push to this election, getting enough state ballots to qualify for the second debate. Every day, we have to decide where to stop writing, and frankly, there was plenty to discuss with the Biden-Trump debate without even getting into Kennedy's competing event. In that regard, we have to make a subjective judgment, and we simply didn't think his actions on debate night, which was basically running a live stream where he kind of awkwardly answered questions and played along with the debate running in the background, were that elucidating. But we'll continue to track his campaign as it makes a push for the second debate, and we'll share any major updates as they come, and we'll give him his share of coverage if he makes it onto the ABC News stage. makes it onto the ABC News stage. All right, that is it for your questions answered. I'm going to send it back to John for the rest of the pod, and we'll be back same time tomorrow. Thanks, Isaac. Here's your Under the Radar story for today, folks.

Starting point is 00:25:38 Some American counties best known for being left behind after manufacturing centers moved overseas are making remarkable comebacks. The counties, largely concentrated in the southeast and Midwest, are adding jobs and new businesses at the fastest pace since Bill Clinton's presidency. This is the kind of thing we couldn't even have dreamed about five or six years ago, said John Lettieri, the president of the Economic Innovation Group, about a report his group released this week. president of the Economic Innovation Group, about a report his group released this week. Researchers are struggling to explain the phenomenon, but some believe the pandemic disrupted long-running patterns where Americans live and work, causing many to flee cities for remote jobs or to start companies in smaller areas. Others think pandemic assistance boosted people out of patterns of poverty or allowed them to build up savings to start businesses

Starting point is 00:26:21 or look for new jobs. The New York Times has this story, and there's a link in today's episode description. All right, next up is our numbers section. The number of legislative seats needed to control France's 577-seat National Assembly is 289. The number of seats won by the new Popular Front in Sunday's election is 182, the most of any coalition. The number of seats won by French President Emmanuel Macron's Ensemble coalition in Sunday's election is 168. The number of seats won by Ensemble in France's 2022 legislative elections was 245. Macron's approval rating as of June 27th is 30%, according to Politico. The percentage of French voters who said they intend to support national rally candidates in the legislative

Starting point is 00:27:10 elections on June 28th, two days before voting began, was 37%, according to polling averages from The Economist. The approximate percentage of total votes received by national rally candidates after the second round of elections is 37%. The percentage of French voters who said they intend to support new Popular Front candidates in the elections is 29%. The approximate percentage of total votes received by new Popular Front candidates after the second round of elections is 26%. The percentage of French voters who said they intended to support Ensemble candidates in the elections is 21%. The approximate percentage of total votes received by ensemble candidates after the second round of elections is 25%. And last but not least, our Have a Nice Day story.

Starting point is 00:27:57 In Zimbabwe, grandmothers are traditionally seen as a source of wisdom. Inspired by this convention, a form of mental health therapy has emerged and consists of an individual in need speaking to an older woman equipped with basic therapeutic training on a bench in the community. The technique has proven so effective that it is spread to parts of Vietnam, Botswana, Malawi, Kenya, and Tanzania. Both New York City and Washington, D.C. are also piloting initiatives inspired by the Zimbabwean approach. ABC News has this story, and there's a link in today's episode description. All right, everybody, that is it for today's episode. As always, if you'd like to support our work, please go to readtangled.com and sign up for a membership. We'll be right back here

Starting point is 00:28:40 tomorrow. For Isaac and the rest of the crew, this is John Maul signing off. Have a great day, y'all. Peace. Our podcast is written by me, Isaac Saul, and edited and engineered by John Wall. The script is edited by our managing editor, Ari Weitzman, Will Kedak, Bailey Saul, and Sean Brady. The logo for our podcast was designed by Magdalena Bokova, who is also our social media manager. Thank you.

Tangle - The surprise French election results.

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