Tangle - The terrorist attack in Russia.

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Starting point is 00:02:03 we're going to be talking about the terrorist attack that happened in Russia on Friday, some of the implications of that attack, what we know, and a little bit of my thoughts on some of the conspiracy theories, I would say, spreading about it. I don't like to use that word. I don't use it lightly because I know conspiracy theory gets thrown around a lot, but there are genuinely some conspiracy theories being thrown around about it that were frustrating for me, to say the least. So we're going to talk about those, and then we'll get in it with, you know, our typical left and right commentary and a couple notes from international writers today, given the international nature of this story. And before we jump into our quick hits, a quick heads up that tomorrow

Starting point is 00:02:43 and later this week, you're going to be hearing John on the podcast, and that's going to be the case into early April. I have some travel stuff coming up, and Tangle is going to be on spring break the second half of this week around Easter. There's a lot going on. We'll update you on it as the week progresses. But the upshot is I'll be tagging in John for a bit of the podcast for a few days. I wanted to give you guys a heads up on that. And you'll be hearing from me again the second week of April, I believe. So that whole first week of April, John will be in here subbing in with his silky smooth voice as he does. And then you'll be back to whatever this voice is that you're hearing now

Starting point is 00:03:32 after that. All right, with that out of the way, we'll jump in with some quick hits. First up, congressional lawmakers avoided a partial government shutdown and passed a $1.2 trillion package of spending bills to fund the government through September, which President Biden then signed. Shortly after, Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, the Republican from Georgia, introduced a motion to remove House Speaker Mike Johnson, the Republican from Louisiana. Number two, Russian forces targeted critical energy infrastructure across Ukraine over the weekend in what is being described as the largest strike of its kind since the war began two years ago. One million people were

Starting point is 00:04:15 without power and at least five people were killed and 15 others were wounded. Number three, former President Donald Trump's social media company, Truth Social, completed a merger Friday that can net Trump over $3 billion. Number four, Senator Bob Menendez, the Democrat from New Jersey, said he won't run for re-election as a Democrat after his term ends in 2024, but suggested he is considering an independent run. Menendez has been indicted on 18 counts related to bribery. And number five, Israel said 170 militants were killed and 800 others were arrested after a weeks-long raid at Gaza

Starting point is 00:04:53 City's Al-Shifa Hospital. Russia is in mourning tonight after the loss of more than 130 people in that terrorist attack at a concert hall in the capital, and the death toll is rising. Some families are still awaiting word on their loved ones who remain missing since gunmen opened fire on the popular and crowded venue. This morning, the horrific toll of the mass shooting evident at the smoldering scene of Russia's deadliest attack in decades. More than 135 men, women, and children slaughtered, hundreds more injured.

Starting point is 00:05:38 It was Friday evening in Moscow when four ISIS-K terrorists, armed with automatic weapons, shot their way into a concert hall at a shopping complex. Blindfolded, bruised and beaten, the terror suspects were quickly brought to court. When Russian President Vladimir Putin finally spoke to a shocked nation, he ignored the glaring failure of his security forces to prevent the assault, despite a U.S. warning a few weeks earlier that ISIS was planning to strike. On Friday night, four gunmen stormed the Crocus City Hall, a concert venue outside Moscow, killing over 130 people and wounding over 100, according to Russia's top security agency. The Islamic State claimed responsibility

Starting point is 00:06:25 for the attack, even going as far as posting videos from cell phone footage one of the shooters took during the violence. U.S. officials said the Islamic State Khorasan, the group known as ISIS-K, based in Afghanistan, carried out the attack. U.S. officials had also warned Russia on March 7th that they were monitoring reports that extremists have imminent plans to target large gatherings in Moscow to include concerts. After the attack, the perpetrators set the popular concert hall on fire and then fled. Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed the four attackers were moving toward Ukraine when they were captured about 90 miles from the Russia-Ukraine border, and alleged that a window was prepared for them

Starting point is 00:07:05 from the Ukrainian side to cross the border. On Sunday night, the four alleged perpetrators were arraigned in a Russian court. All four were from Tajikistan, and Russian authorities said they had been working as migrant laborers in Russia. In total, 11 people have been arrested in connection with the attack. Putin addressed the country on Saturday, describing new anti-terrorist and anti-sabotage measures in Moscow, but glossing over the security failures that contributed to the attack. He made no mention of the Islamic State, an enemy of Russia's whom Putin declared victory over in 2017. The roots of the conflict date back to Russia's military occupation of Afghanistan in the 1980s and a series of crackdowns on Muslim communities in

Starting point is 00:07:45 Russia. In the last decade, the Islamic State has carried out multiple terrorist attacks in Russia. Putin did not directly accuse Ukraine of involvement, but instead claimed Nazis were behind the attack, a term he often uses to refer to Ukraine. Ukraine strongly denied any involvement in the shootings. The attack occurred just five days after Putin was elected to another six-year term with little opposition. Two days after his win and three days before the attack, he had criticized U.S. warnings of an impending attack by calling them an attempt to frighten and destabilize our society. Putin's critics said the attack once again showed his weakness during wartime. The regime shows its weakness in such critical situations just as it did during

Starting point is 00:08:25 the mutiny by Bogosian, Andrei Kolesnikov, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia-Eurasia Center, told the Washington Post. In difficult moments, Putin always disappears, he said. Terrorist attacks were a major concern in Russia at the turn of the century, but it's been nearly 20 years since an attack of this scale. In the past, Putin has blamed Western democracies for such attack, and he looks poised to make those claims again. One prominent Russia Today host has already said that the American warnings of an imminent attack were proof they were participants in it. Meanwhile, rumors and innuendo have swirled on social media, where prominent commentators have alleged, without evidence, that Ukraine, the United States, Israel, or the CIA

Starting point is 00:09:04 were behind the attacks. Today, we're going to explore some arguments about those attacks with views from the left and the right, as well as some perspectives from abroad. We'll be right back after this quick commercial break. Long before Fox News hosts were caught for saying one thing in private and another on air, two leading conservatives left the network in protest of the network's tolerance of election denialism. Such claims were incompatible with their efforts to build a media company dedicated to the truth. Jonah Goldberg and Steve Hayes had launched the Dispatch in 2019 to build an enduring presence in the center-right for sane conservatism. No insulting clickbait,

Starting point is 00:09:50 no false outrage, no annoying autoplay videos, just reliable journalism that prioritizes context, depth, and understanding. Today, a growing community of more than 400,000 rely on the Dispatch to help make sense of a political world gone crazy. Get news and analysis that is more than a scripted reality show. Tangle readers claim your exclusive 90-day all-access free trial today by visiting thedispatch.com slash tangle. That's thedispatch.com slash tangle. First up, I want to start today with our agreed section and note that commentators broadly agree that the attack is a blow to Putin's image as a protector of the Russian people. Both sides criticized Putin and Russia's security services for ignoring clear warnings from the United States

Starting point is 00:10:41 and other Western nations that a terrorist attack was imminent. These writers also widely reject the notion that any group besides ISIS-K was behind the attack and rebuke Putin for suggesting that Ukraine was involved. Now, we'll jump into what the left is saying. The left says the attack shows Putin is incapable of keeping Russians safe from clear and present threats. Others argue conspiracy theories that non-ISIS actors were behind the attack are unfounded. The Washington Post editorial board wrote that abolishing liberty did not bring Russia security. This new atrocity is a reminder that the transnational threat of violent Islamist extremism is far from over, despite the destruction of the Islamic State's forces in Iraq and Syria

Starting point is 00:11:21 by the United States and its allies, the board said. There's nothing to celebrate in this incident. Still, it's appropriate to praise both the professional competence and, yes, ethics of U.S. intelligence, which detected the plot in advance and then fulfilled its duty to warn even an adversary government by sharing information with Russia. What cannot be explained is the response to this by Russian President Vladimir Putin, the board added. Mr. Putin has erected a totalitarian regime on the claim that his unquestioned preeminence means stability and security for Russia. He constantly warns of enemies bent on causing chaos and instability. He cemented his power just this week with a simulacrum of an election in which he supposedly received almost 90% of the vote. But after the bloodbath at the concert hall, Russians are entitled to wonder whether Mr. Putin's authoritarian system is

Starting point is 00:12:09 effective at protecting anyone but him. In The Atlantic, Graham Woods said conspiracy theories about the Moscow attack are unnecessary. In Russia, as in many authoritarian states, rumors proliferate fast after shocking events like this. Many repeated the crazy theory that ISIS was deliberately invented by America. The exiled chess master and dissident Garry Kasparov suggested that Russia had attacked itself to drum up ethno-nationalist sentiment. Putin's intimidation of Ukrainian involvement makes little sense to me, Wood wrote. Everything we know about Russia and its history with ISIS supports the theory that ISIS perpetrated the attack. ISIS has been reviving its capacity, particularly in its Khorasan affiliate, the one identified by U.S. intelligence as responsible for the attack. ISIS had a huge

Starting point is 00:12:55 Russian and Central Asian contingent in its heyday, and the fault lines in Russian politics and society have foretold this kind of atrocity for literally centuries, Wood said. The cruelty of the killing and even the choice of venue, a concert hall, are all awfully familiar to anyone acquainted with jihadism in Russia. What comes next will be familiar too. The horrific videos and claims of responsibility have already arrived. Next will be a brutal reply from the Russian state. Whether that reply will be addressed to the attack's actual authors is an open question. All right, next up is what the right is saying. The right worries that the attack signals a return of groups like ISIS to the global stage. Others criticize Putin for seeking to pin the blame for the attack on Ukraine. The Wall Street Journal editorial board wrote about a revived ISIS.

Starting point is 00:13:51 Vladimir Putin predictably tried to pin the murderous assault on Ukraine, and his coterie blamed the U.S. But the evidence so far points to ISIS, including that the jihadists took credit for the assault and posted a video of it taking place, apparently from one of the killers, the board said. Blaming Ukraine now helps Mr. Putin distract attention from his earlier dismissal of what has now cost so many innocent lives. And it deflects from the fact that Russian security was so inept that the killers could rampage for an hour in the Russian capital and somehow escape in a car. That's not to take away the focus of this attack from ISIS, which has revived with a sanctuary in Afghanistan since President Biden's 2021 withdrawal, the board wrote. Mr. Biden promised that the U.S. would have over-the-horizon capability to prevent Afghanistan from again

Starting point is 00:14:35 becoming a terrorist sanctuary. But if that's true, you can't tell from the ISIS-Khorasan comeback. Unworried about a U.S. attack on its hideouts, ISIS leaders can now focus on planning attacks against foreigners as they have in Iran and now Moscow. That Americans haven't been hit recently at home or abroad is a blessing, but not a guarantee of future safety. In The American Spectator, Paul Kengor called Putin's response to the attack troubling. The U.S. military withdrawal from Afghanistan sadly and unpredictably removed a crucial stabilizing force that aimed to keep a lid on Islamic terror throughout the region, including the dastard about who was responsible. ISIS-K despises the Russian government and has escalated its attacks in the last two years. Vladimir Putin's initial response to the attack, however, was very troubling. In his first public statement, he made no reference to ISIS-K's claims of responsibility.

Starting point is 00:15:39 He attempted to link those responsible for the barbaric terrorist attack not to the Islamic state, but to Ukraine. He went so far as to claim the attackers were trying to get back to Ukraine, Kengor wrote. The event was awful, ghastly, tragic. Russians rightly viewed it as one of the worst terrorist incidents ever committed against their people. But it could become much worse if Vladimir Putin and his goons used it as a pretext to do something still more savage to Ukraine. All right, that is it for the left and the right are saying, and we are today going to include some international writers. Some writers deride Putin for prioritizing political power over the safety of his people. Others say the attack should shatter Russia's image as a country that takes security seriously. Based on Charles Yu's award-winning book, Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu,

Starting point is 00:16:36 a background character trapped in a police procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. across Canada, which is nearly double the historic average of 52,000 cases. What can you do this flu season? Talk to your pharmacist or doctor about getting a flu shot. Consider FluCellVax Quad and help protect yourself from the flu. It's the first cell-based flu vaccine authorized in Canada for ages six months and older, and it may be available for free in your province.

Starting point is 00:17:19 Side effects and allergic reactions can occur, and 100% protection is not guaranteed. Learn more at fluselvax.ca. In The Guardian, Russian journalist Andrei Solbatov said Putin will be ruthless after the Moscow attack, but Russians don't trust him to keep them safe. Putin is a very systematic person. He has stuck to his policy of protecting his agencies throughout his reign. He has kept the successor to the KGB, the Russian Federal Security Force, FSB, his longest and most beloved investment, well-supplied with resources, Soldatov wrote. The FSB became very efficient and innovative at repression. Nowadays, the Russian security and intelligence services are world experts in killing and torture.

Starting point is 00:18:02 The FSB is also rather competent at investigating attacks after the event, thanks in large part to video surveillance combined with up-to-the-minute facial recognition technology. But these are not the qualities that help to prevent attacks from happening, and time and again the FSB has failed as an intelligence collection agency because other things are needed. Information sharing capabilities between agencies, both domestic and foreign, and trust between those agencies and within those agencies, Solbatov said. In this country, where no freedoms are allowed and political discussion is strongly censored, trust in national security services is in short supply. Of course, the harassed population will go along with the government narrative, but fear and mistrust has already led to the

Starting point is 00:18:44 blossoming of all sorts of conspiracy theories. In the Moscow Times, Jeremy Morris suggested that the attack exposes the farce of Russia's security theater. Carrying out the worst terrorist attack in Moscow in 20 years appeared shockingly easy, despite the Russian capital being one of the most surveilled and guarded cities in the world, Morris wrote. However, the attack does underline how farcical Moscow's visible security presence is. The most securitized of any large city in Europe, Moscow is probably more vulnerable to terrorism than ever, as events yesterday clearly showed. If we peel back the curtain of Russia's security theater, where a superficial appearance of strength does not keep people safe, we can see why. If you have guards for everything, that means they are deprofessionalized. Indeed, some of the least capable, including the old and disabled and

Starting point is 00:19:30 least educated people in society, become low-paid security personnel. But that's not all. A lack of training and motivation along with low pay and boredom means that much of the time scanning and searching does not even uncover genuine transgressions, Morris said. Leadership is about maintaining distance and impunity. The culture of authority means the person with the most responsibility seeks to avoid any of that duty through delegation in the most unprofessional and unhelpful way. All right, that is it for what the left and the right and some international writers are saying, which brings us to my take. So first of all, it's nice to see some agreement among the punditry class, both here and internationally. Usually when that happens, my hackles go up and my intuition is to be skeptical. But I think the

Starting point is 00:20:25 consensus here reflects reality. ISIS-K was behind this attack, and Putin's security apparatus failed. In this case, the error wasn't with the many experts on Russia, the Islamic State, or global intelligence agencies who were sharing common ground, which is an unusual thing. But instead, it was with individuals on social media, which quickly became a cesspool of innuendo, conspiracy, and rumor. It is legitimately scary what some of our largest platforms for sharing information are turning into. On X, the prominent venture capitalist David Sachs speculated to his nearly 1 million followers that Ukraine was behind the attack. The CIA was trending in the hours afterward,

Starting point is 00:21:09 with rampant accusations and evidence-free allegations that it was behind the attack. The next day, Israel is ISIS was trending. Some, like Russian dissident Garry Kasparov, even suggested that Russia had committed the attack on itself. All this happened when the case was about as easy to crack as possible. U.S. officials had warned on March 7th that such an attack was imminent, which is not typically something they do when they're organizing CIA-led terrorism. ISIS-K filmed the violence, uploaded the videos, celebrated the attack, and took credit for it, while intelligence services in the U.S. and Russia immediately attributed the attack to them. Yet that apparently wasn't enough for so many prominent people whose brains have been destroyed by access to social media and Wikipedia pages and who see conspiracies in every corner.

Starting point is 00:21:50 Please don't misunderstand me. This is not some blanket call to always trust the government officials or to take the U.S. government's word, or Russia's or Ukraine's, as fact. Quite the opposite. The government-sponsored story is very rarely the full picture. For instance, when the Nord Stream pipeline was bombed, I expressed some skepticism about the story that U.S. and Ukraine seemed aligned on their talking points. That skepticism turned out to be warranted. But there's a difference between skepticism and conspiracy mongering. There's a difference between critical thinking and obsessively refusing to agree with a narrative because it is being promoted by people you don't like. There's a difference between looking for holes in a story and manufacturing the holes yourself. This is especially important when the narrative is geopolitical. Remember, the reality of this attack has major international implications. One is that the just

Starting point is 00:22:40 re-elected leader of Russia has failed in one of his most basic duties he has, which is to protect Russians. Part of the trade-off of living in an authoritarian state is that, at least in theory, the abundance of government control usually means safety. That facade was broken. Second is the basic fact that ISIS-K was capable of conducting this attack. Many commentators pointed to the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan and the ramifications it has had on the region, and with good reason. U.S. intelligence leaks that came out on Discord showed Afghanistan has once again become a staging ground for terrorism in the two years since Biden withdrew U.S. troops, which has destabilizing ramifications for the region and potentially the West. It's hard to imagine this isn't one of those ramifications.

Starting point is 00:23:24 The second-order ramification will be Russia's response, which we haven't seen yet. Putin delivered an entire five-minute address without once mentioning ISIS-K, instead trying to link the entire thing to Nazis in Ukraine. This is a good indication of what that response will be, and a reminder of just how low he'll go in the information war. That draws out the larger context, the new information cold war between the U.S. and Russia. A worrisome trend I see in this aftermath is that there are many people in the U.S. willing to do Putin's bidding, many of them not out of ill will, but a desire to be heterodox and a refusal to believe anything the mainstream media reports, even when the truth is smacking them upside the head.

Starting point is 00:24:11 We'll be right back after this quick break. All right, that is it for my take, which brings us to your questions answered. This one's from William in New York City, New York. William said, I try to keep up with everything and I've been particularly interested in your reporting and opinions on Israel and Gaza. I came across this article and he linked an article in Tablet today and I wasn't sure if you had read it or sourced it. I'm not as thorough as some of your readers, so I can't recall if you had or not. I know you've discussed the casualty numbers before, but I was wondering if you had an opinion on this or if you had seen anything to further support or counter this. Keep up what you're

Starting point is 00:24:48 doing, and I thank you and your team for doing it. Okay, so first of all, William, yes, I read the article, and I think it has some strong points. For those who haven't, this article was titled How the Gaza Ministry of Health Fakes Casualty Numbers. It was written by a man named Abraham Weiner, who is a professor of statistics and data science at Penn, and it was published on March 6th in Tablet, a magazine that publishes content about all kinds of issues from the Jewish perspective. Obviously, this isn't some unbiased source, but it doesn't mean Weiner's argument is wrong, either. In the argument, Weiner makes three points to get to the conclusion that, while the evidence is not dispositive, it is highly suggestive that a process unconnected

Starting point is 00:25:31 or loosely connected to reality was used to report the death totals in Gaza. Most likely, the Hamas ministry settled on a daily total arbitrarily. His three reasons are one, the numbers increase with metronomic linearity, meaning that the death toll in Gaza has been increasing by the same amount every day by the time this was published. Two, an expected correlation between the death rates of women and children is non-existent, and the correlation between men and non-men is negative, meaning when more deaths of men are reported, fewer are reported of women and children. And number three, Hamas has admitted to losing 6,000 fighters, which is 20% of the total number.

Starting point is 00:26:12 70% of all casualties have been women and children, meaning that Hamas is claiming only 10% of those killed by Israel have been non-combatant men, which is hard to believe. Weiner also mentioned reporting errors and the fact that the civilian death rate is much higher in this campaign than in any conflict Israel has waged with Palestine so far, but I think those three points are his strongest. And frankly, they're hard to explain away. I've always recommended skepticism of the Gaza health ministry as a source. I think this statistical evidence is a good reason to maintain skepticism about the health ministry, and frankly, I was pretty floored by the simplicity of Weiner's matter-of-fact

Starting point is 00:26:49 argument. There's just no way the health ministry's daily numbers reflect the actual death rate. That said, that doesn't mean they're wholesale fabrications, either. Here's the biggest point working against Weimer. Israel has broadly accepted these numbers, so have many international aid groups and reporters on the ground. The health ministry's numbers may not be totally accurate, and day-to-day almost certainly are not, but I think they are the best approximation of the real number that anybody really has. Of course, there are other variables the article doesn't discuss. We don't know how many people Hamas and other groups inside Gaza have killed, and because Israel has destroyed so much of Gaza's healthcare infrastructure,

Starting point is 00:27:27 it's possible the death total is actually an undercount. That is what makes wartime reporting so difficult. Again, Weiner's claim was that, quote, a process unconnected or loosely connected to reality was used to report the numbers. And I think that precise wording is important. It's possible that deaths are only counted for a limited amount of time every day, which would explain the increase's regularity. I don't know enough to say whether the numbers are invented out of whole cloth or explainable

Starting point is 00:27:53 by some accounting process, but neither does anybody else outside of Hamas. So I'll continue to just advise some skepticism. All right, next up is our under-the- Radar section. Leaders of the Libertarian Party in Wisconsin are considering embracing Robert F. Kennedy Jr., despite their vast differences on policy, as a way to help upend the two-party system. Phil Anderson, the Libertarian candidate for U.S. Senate in Wisconsin in 2024, said Kennedy's candidacy isn't just for libertarians, but for third-party members across the system. Despite the possible RFK endorsement, libertarians will have their own candidate on the ballot in Wisconsin, and the Green Party has also secured ballot access for Jill Stein. Wisconsin, which was decided by just over 20,000 votes in 2020,

Starting point is 00:28:42 is a pivotal swing state in this year's election. The Cap Times has the story, and there's a link to it in today's episode description. All right, next up is our numbers section. The year ISIS-K was founded by members of the Pakistani Taliban was 2015. The estimated number of ISIS-K members as of 2023 was 1,500 to 2,200. The number of terrorist attacks planned by ISIS-K in the past year was 21. The number of countries where those attacks took place was nine. The number of years since the terrorist attack in Russia with a death toll exceeding 100 people as happened was 20. That was prior to Friday's attack. The current death toll in the Moscow concert hall attack is now 137. And finally, the percentage of the vote received by Vladimir Putin in Russia's presidential

Starting point is 00:29:30 election last week was 87%. All right, and last but not least, our have a nice day story. Maya James and Cheyenne Walker had to make a difficult choice in colleges between a historically black college or university in HBCU and one that provided opportunities for them to continue skating. Both chose Howard University, an HBCU in Washington, D.C., despite the lack of skating opportunities. But instead of giving up the sport they had competed in since they were both seven years old,

Starting point is 00:30:01 they contacted U.S. Figure Skating and found their own team at Howard, the first competitive skating team at any HBCU. Figure skating is such an amazing sport, but not everybody has access to it, Walker said. Especially being on HBCU campus, I thought it was so important for us to bring not only the sport to the campus, but make sure it's accessible and for everyone.

Starting point is 00:30:22 U.S. Figure Skating has the story and there's a link to it in today's episode description. All right, everybody, that is it for today's podcast. As always, if you want to support our work, you can go to readtangle.com forward slash membership. And don't forget, I'll be passing the mic off for the next week or two. You'll be hearing from me intermittently, but you can expect John's voice out here tomorrow, and I'll be in touch shortly. Have a good one. Peace. Our podcast is written by me, Isaac Saul, and edited and engineered by John Wall. The script is edited by our managing editor, Ari Weitzman, Will Kabak, Bailey Saul, and edited and engineered by John Wall. The script is edited by our managing editor, Ari Weitzman,

Starting point is 00:31:06 Will Kabak, Bailey Saul, and Sean Brady. The logo for our podcast was designed by Magdalena Bokova, who is also our social media manager. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet75. And if you're looking for more from Tangle, please go to retangle.com and check out our website. book. Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu, a background character trapped in a police procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it

Starting point is 00:31:56 feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. first cell-based flu vaccine authorized in Canada for ages six months and older, and it may be available for free in your province. Side effects and allergic reactions can occur, and 100% protection is not guaranteed. Learn more at flucellvax.ca.

Tangle - The terrorist attack in Russia.

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