Tangle - The Ukraine counteroffensive (and the dam attack).

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Starting point is 00:01:00 From executive producer Isaac Saul, this is Tangle. Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening, and welcome to the Tangle podcast, a place we get views from across the political spectrum, some independent thinking, and a little bit of mind take. I am your host, Isaac Saul, and on today's episode, we are going to be talking about Ukraine, specifically the damage done to a very critical dam in southern Ukraine, what it means, the counteroffensive, just some general updates on the war there and what's going on. There is a lot to talk about. This is a really, really big issue. Before we jump in, though, I want to start off today with a little bit of listener and reader feedback from yesterday's episode on Pride Month. After publishing that piece, I got a few interesting responses from readers, and I wanted to be sure to share them here. One reader

Starting point is 00:02:05 said, quote, representation is important, but I feel like I'm being constantly told you must support this and you have to be proud for queer people. That, combined with the antagonist queer voices I hear on Twitter and Reddit comparing people like me to Nazis, gives me the subconscious impression that they want to take my beliefs away from me. The more I hear you yelling at me and telling me I'm worse than actual murderers, the more I'm going to resist your ideas. I know that most queer people just want to be left alone and feel safe, and I support that. Everyone deserves that. I feel bad that I dislike Pride Month, I really do. In time, I'm sure I'll turn those feelings around. Another reader said,

Starting point is 00:02:45 I appreciated, as usual, the incredibly thoughtful and balanced coverage here, but I just want to highlight the antics of the so-called Sisters of Perpetual Indulgence. I'm a fairly devout Catholic, and this group openly mocks and desecrates that which is sacred and holy for us. Sexual dances with the depictions of Mary is wildly offensive, and I don't know how they can hide behind the face of inclusivity by actively mocking another's faith. What if they were performing acts with an image of Muhammad or something sacred to another faith? Lastly, someone wrote in and said, your take on Pride Month is so refreshing. Everywhere I look, the LGBT community is being polarized and used as a

Starting point is 00:03:25 political topic unnecessarily, when in reality, we're just people living our lives, and a loud minority on both sides are blowing this issue way out of proportion. You hit the nail on the head. All right, that is it for the reader feedback. I just wanted to share that because I thought they were some valuable perspectives to include, and obviously a couple that were contrary to my take that I took yesterday, but that's what Tangle's all about. So before we jump into the main topic, let's get into our quick hits for the day. First up, former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie officially filed paperwork to run for president, and former Vice President Mike Pence released his campaign launch video. Number two, the PGA Tour and LIV Golf, a Saudi-backed tour, agreed to merge on Tuesday.

Starting point is 00:04:21 Number three, smoke from wildfires in Canada has spread across the United States, leaving over 100 million Americans facing air quality advisories. Number four, House Oversight Chairman James Comer, the Republican from Kentucky, said Monday he will move ahead with efforts to hold FBI Director Christopher Wray in contempt for refusing to hand over documents related to allegations of President Joe Biden's involvement in a bribery scandal. Number five, Iran's local media claim the country has built its first hypersonic ballistic missile. We begin with a growing disaster unfolding on the front lines of the war in Ukraine. A critical dam and hydroelectric power plant was destroyed today. It triggered severe flooding across the Kherson region,

Starting point is 00:05:11 putting hundreds of thousands of people at risk. The reservoir, roughly the same size as Utah's Great Salt Lake, is in effect the front line. Ukrainian civilians on the West Bank and Russian troops on the East. It's one of six dams on the Dnipro River and supplies vital drinking water, power and cooling for the nearby Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky accuses Russia of blowing up the dam, but Russian officials blame the destruction on shelling from Ukrainian forces. The dam supplies

Starting point is 00:05:41 water to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which is the largest nuclear power plant in Europe. Yesterday, as Ukraine's counteroffensive appeared to be underway, news broke that a major dam and hydroelectric power plant in southern Ukraine were severely damaged. The attack on the dam caused flooding near the front lines, with communities downstream of the dam, many currently under Russian control, having to evacuate while Russia continued shelling the region overhead. The Kakhovka Dam sits near the southern end of the Dnipro River, which currently separates Ukrainian and Russian forces on the front lines. 75 miles northeast of the dam is the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant, which uses water from the Kakhovka Reservoir to cool

Starting point is 00:06:25 its nuclear reactors, though officials say there are currently no threats to the plant. Following the news of the dam's destruction, Ukraine blamed Russia and Russia blamed Ukraine. Both sides had previously accused each other of plotting to destroy the dam, which is currently controlled by Russian forces. This is just one Russian act of terrorism, Ukraine's president Volodymyr Zelensky said on Telegram. This is just one Russian war crime. Now Russia is guilty of brutal ecocide. Any comments are superfluous. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov blamed Ukraine. Apparently, this sabotage is also connected with the fact that, having started

Starting point is 00:07:03 large-scale offensive actions two days ago, now the Ukrainian armed forces are not achieving their goals. These offensive actions are faltering, he said. Intentionally destroying the dam has some advantages and some risks for both sides. Ukraine's long-awaited counteroffensive appears to be underway, with an uptick in attacks on Russian forces in the last week. The flooding from the dam can make it more difficult for Ukrainian forces to advance across the river or use the area as a staging ground to reclaim the land bridge to Crimea, which is one of Ukraine's well-known objectives. There is also evidence that Russia was mining the dam with explosives last year. That, and Russia's history of attacking critical infrastructure during the war,

Starting point is 00:07:43 has left many Western officials assuming Russia was behind the attack. However, the upside for Russia is not entirely clear either. Floodwaters could damage Russia's fortifications along the river and may end up consuming its resources as well. Given that Russia controls much of the region, it is now responsible for evacuating citizens. Some 1,300 people have already been evacuated, and Ukrainian officials say about 40,300 people have already been evacuated, and Ukrainian officials say about 40,000 people will have to flee. About 25,000 of those are people on the Russia-controlled

Starting point is 00:08:10 side of the river. Separately, the Washington Post published an exclusive report yesterday that the United States had gathered intelligence on a detailed Ukrainian plan to attack the Nord Stream pipeline. The CIA apparently learned of the plan last June when it discovered details of this plan among the trove of documents leaked by Air National Guard member Jack Teixeira in a Discord chat room. Until now, Western officials had largely blamed the attack on Russia, and the new evidence lends credence to the idea that Ukraine is capable of and willing to commit attacks on infrastructure during wartime. It's hard to overstate the size and scale of the resultant flooding. The dam is one of the largest in Europe, and its reservoir holds about 5 million gallons of water, about as much as Utah's Salt Lake. On top of destroying homes

Starting point is 00:08:55 and contaminating potable water sources used by communities in Crimea, the flooding poses other ecological risks, like spilling oil, gasoline, and other chemicals into the Black Sea. Today, we're going to look at some arguments from the right and the left about the Ukrainian counteroffensive and the attacks on the dam, then my take. First up, we'll start with what the left is saying. Many on the left suspect Russia is behind the attack and hope for a successful Ukrainian counteroffensive. Some say Russia just committed another war crime. Others write that Russia stands to gain more from the attack and has a known history of attacking infrastructure. In the Washington Post, David Ignatius said the dam attack brought new trauma to the battlefield amid an encouraging counteroffensive. Military campaigns are rarely all or nothing, but this one comes close. If Ukraine can drive back an already shaky Russian army, it stands a chance of forcing

Starting point is 00:10:01 Moscow to bargain for an end of its failed invasion. But if Ukraine fails, it would be a bitter blow to the country's weary population and could endanger continued support from some restless NATO members, Ignatius said. Administration officials had been encouraged by better-than-expected progress as Ukraine worked to attack Russian forces across several lanes in southeastern Ukraine. However, an apparent sabotage attack that burst the Khovka reservoir dam and sent a torrent down the Dnipro River toward occupied Crimea has introduced a new trauma to the battlefield. Russia and Ukraine traded blame for the attack, which NATO Secretary General Jen Stoltenberg called an outrageous act. The loss means it will be harder for Ukraine to push south of the river, but also harder for

Starting point is 00:10:45 Russian troops to maneuver and defend territories they hold. In Bloomberg, Andreas Kluth said Russia's dam busting is another war crime. Just as the Ukrainians are finally launching their long expected counteroffensive against the Russian invaders, the latter preempt the former with another war crime, Kluth wrote. It's hardly plausible that the Ukrainians did it, and the floodwaters will deluge several villages, a city, and put a power plant out of commission. Especially in places defined by rivers like Ukraine and its Dnipro River, the manipulation of floodwaters has always been popular as a tactic. Is this ethical or even legal? As ever, when lawyers are involved, that question leads to frustrating quagmires of fine print. Customary international law acknowledges bombing dams can

Starting point is 00:11:30 be fair game when the targets have military importance, and the consequences for civilians are proportionate. But protocols in the Geneva Conventions prohibit such acts when dams are near nuclear electrical generating stations, as is the case here. Throughout his murderous assault on Ukraine, Putin has threatened to turn the Zaporizhia nuclear station into a second Chernobyl. In Vox, Jen Kirby asked, did Russia do it? U.S. and Western officials have also not made any definitive assessments yet, though most are leaning toward Russia as the likely suspect, especially given its history of targeting Ukrainian energy and civilian infrastructure intended to create humanitarian emergencies, Kirby wrote. Of course, Western leaders have been wrong before in attributing attacks to Russia, as with the

Starting point is 00:12:14 sabotage of the Nord Stream pipeline, which is why Western and NATO officials have not drawn firm conclusions. Russia has also controlled the dam since the early days of the war, so if it was an accident or unintentional, it happened on their watch. Ukraine has also controlled the dam since the early days of the war, so if it was an accident or unintentional, it happened on their watch. Ukraine has also been warning since last year that Russia had mined the dam and previously claimed Moscow had plans to destroy it ahead of its retreat from Kursan last fall, she added. And the dam explosion is happening against an uptick in Ukrainian attacks that could have some Western officials believing Ukraine's counteroffensive is underway. A disaster could tie up Ukrainian resources and make it more

Starting point is 00:12:49 difficult for troops to advance. All right, that is it for what the left is saying, which brings us to what the right is saying. Can trees help us grow more resilient to climate change? At the University of British Columbia, we believe that they can. Dr. Suzanne Simard and her team are connecting our future to nature. Their Mother Tree project could transform how we manage forests, capturing more carbon and safeguarding biodiversity for generations to come. At UBC, our researchers are answering today's most pressing questions. To learn how we're moving the world forward, visit ubc.ca forward happens here. The flu remains a serious disease. Last season, over 102,000 influenza cases have been reported

Starting point is 00:13:43 across Canada, which is nearly double the historic average of 52,000 cases. What can you do this flu season? Talk to your pharmacist or doctor about getting a flu shot. Consider FluCellVax Quad and help protect yourself from the flu. It's the first cell-based flu vaccine authorized in Canada for ages 6 months and older, and it may be available for free in your province. Side effects and allergic reactions can occur, and 100% protection is not guaranteed. Learn more at flucellvax.ca. Most people on the right are blaming Russia for the attack, though some acknowledge the

Starting point is 00:14:17 possibility Ukraine was responsible. Some argue that Russia had the motivation to slow Ukraine's counteroffensive and the mentality of the war to do this. Others suggest the evidence points to Ukraine. In National Review, Noah Rothman said the destruction of the dam is an atrocity, not a disaster. The implosion of the edifice holding back the full force of the Dnieper River was no accident nor act of God. It was most likely a deliberate, indiscriminate attack on Ukrainian civilians and on global ecology, Rothman said. Perhaps the Ukrainians flooded their own land, displacing thousands of residents and cutting off a potential axis in the coming counteroffensive, but also displacing the Russians from positions into which they had dug on the Dnipro's left bank. Maybe it was an accident. But all this rationalizes the likeliest explanation, Russian sabotage.

Starting point is 00:15:06 Russian news outlets initially reported nothing at all had occurred at the dam, and then comically insisted all was well after rising floodwaters and daylight showed the extent of the damage. Questions about why Russia would do this are all built on a false premise, one that presupposes Russia has any interest in preserving land it is attempting to seize, or safeguarding the people it seeks to subjugate. Russia had the motive. Russia's beleaguered forces in Ukraine have bought themselves time and space to attract Ukrainian attackers. Moreover, it has the mentality, a classic scorched earth tactic from the country that popularized the term.

Starting point is 00:15:41 In the dispatch, Nick Cattagio said there have been plenty of attacks during this war Ukraine was probably responsible for, but this was not likely one of them. Ukraine has proved more capable of spectacular operations than anyone believed possible. That drone flyby of the Kremlin last month? That was them, as your humble correspondents surmised. Assassinations of Russian propagandists? Them. Last year's explosions on the Kerch Strait Bridge? Them. The sinking of the Moskva? Them. Sabotage of the Nord Stream pipeline? Them too, probably. But this morning's breach of the Nova-Kahovka dam doesn't smell like a Ukrainian operation, spectacular though it is. It has the hallmarks of a Russian way of war. The mystery

Starting point is 00:16:24 is easier to solve than the case of the Kremlin drone. We have here hallmarks of a Russian way of war. The mystery is easier to solve than the case of the Kremlin drone. We have here a display of flabbergasting indifference to human life, deliberate targeting of civilians, crude blunt force instead of precision strikes, and defined contempt for the laws of war, he wrote. That's as close to a Russian signature in battle as one can get. Numerous reports suggest there was an explosion at the dam, a big one. Further, the timing is just too fortuitous to be coincidental. Ukraine's counteroffensive was finally underway, and now their troops will be diverted to conduct rescue operations, while Russia will have extra time to adjust and redeploy units strategically. On the first episode of his Twitter show, Tucker Carlson suggested that Ukraine was most likely the culprit.

Starting point is 00:17:07 If this was intentional, it was not a military tactic. It was an act of terrorism, Carlson said. The dam was built by the Russian government, and it currently sits in Russian-controlled territory. The dam's reservoir supplies water to Crimea, which has been, for the last 240 years, home of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. Blowing up the dam may be bad for Ukraine, but it hurts Russia more. And for precisely that reason, the Ukrainian government has considered destroying it. In December, the Washington Post quoted a Ukrainian general saying his men had fired American-made rockets at the dam's floodgates as a test strike. So, really, once the facts start coming in, it becomes much less of a mystery of what might have happened to the dam, Carlson said. Any fair person would conclude that the Ukrainians

Starting point is 00:17:51 probably blew it up, just as you would assume they blew up Nord Stream. And in fact, they did do that, as we now know. But the American media has wasted no time in accusing the Russians of sabotaging their own infrastructure. Alright, that is it for the left and the right are saying, which brings us to my take. So first, I should start by acknowledging my track record here is not great. When the Nord Stream pipeline was attacked, I went down the rabbit hole. Credit to us, we explored every possibility from Ukraine to Russia to the United States. I said clearly I didn't know, and I laid out the motivations for Ukraine to take such an action. But I also said, quote, the idea Ukraine had the time, resources, or ability to pull this

Starting point is 00:18:42 off without being detected seems absurd. Ultimately, I pointed the finger at who I thought were the most likely culprits, Russia and the United States. Well, it seems almost certain that I was wrong and that Ukraine sabotaged the pipeline. Last month, when a drone crashed into the Kremlin, I dismissed the idea that it was an assassination attempt or that Ukraine had been responsible. My piece largely focused on not holding Ukraine to ridiculous standards, but I was skeptical that Ukraine could get so close to the Kremlin and criticized other Western media for taking Ukraine's talking points wholesale. Well, it turns out that Ukraine was behind the attempt. So, you can take my word with a grain of salt

Starting point is 00:19:21 when I say what I'm about to say. I think all signs here point to Russia. Maybe I just haven't learned my lesson, but the attack on the dam seems much less ambiguous to me than the others. Why? Well, let's start with the fact Russia had already lined the dam with explosives. I can't really think of any evidence more incriminating than that. Indeed, Zelensky warned us in October that Russia had mined the dam and that destroying it would amount to using weapons of mass destruction. The dam has been entirely under Russian control since. I'm no demolitions expert, but those who are say the images look a lot like an internal explosion, not one caused by rocket fire. You can judge for yourself, we have pictures

Starting point is 00:20:00 of the damage in today's newsletter. Second, this time, U.S. intelligence officials actually appear determined to absolve Ukraine. Unlike the Nord Stream and Kremlin drone attacks, after which U.S. intelligence officials initially equivocated, then ultimately pointed the finger at Ukraine, or at least had intel leaked that Ukraine was behind them, the response this time couldn't be more resolute. Two U.S. officials told NBC News they are working to declassify evidence Russia was behind the attack, which they claim to have in their possession. Finally, to explain the significant collateral damage to Russia here, it's also possible this was just pure malpractice. It seems unlikely that the dam was destroyed by unusually high levels of

Starting point is 00:20:41 water, but some have posited that Russia intended a kind of controlled demolition that would do minimal damage, just enough to flood out some Ukrainian advances, but not enough for a full-scale disaster, and they simply screwed up. As Nick Catozio put it under what the right is saying, could the Russians really have been this stupid? Well, quote, we might answer that question with a question. Could they really have been so stupid as to still be using cell phones on the front lines months after it became clear the Ukrainians were using the signals to pinpoint their positions? To me, the evidence pointing to Ukraine, like its motive to embarrass Putin by destroying Crimea, the fact it has entertained attacking the dam in the past, or the resulting displacement of Russian troops, doesn't come close to the evidence pointing

Starting point is 00:21:24 the other way. Russia appears to be losing this war, had mined the bridge after Ukraine advanced on the river last year, and pushed the button at the exact moment Ukraine's counteroffensive started growing in momentum. Of course, I've been wrong before, but I feel more confident about this whodunit than any of the ones in recent memory. Regardless of who was behind it though, one thing is clear. This damage is going to be unbelievable. It is truly an ecological disaster, a humanitarian crisis, and has the potential to spiral further if the nearby nuclear power plant is damaged. The war has just entered a new, even dicier phase, and all I can do is hope Ukraine can manage its humanitarian efforts alongside

Starting point is 00:22:05 a successful counteroffensive. Every day, this war ending, which seems likely only on the heels of Putin losing, feels more and more imperative. All right, that is it for my take. We are skipping today's reader question to make some extra room for our reader feedback, which we included at the top of the podcast, as well as our blind spot report, which we have today. Once a week, we present the blind spot report from our partners at Ground News, and that tells you the bias of news coverage and what stories people on each side are missing. This week, the right missed a story about how just one in five teachers feel carrying a gun to class would make schools safer, while more than half disagree. The left missed a story about a

Starting point is 00:22:49 group of suspected Chinese spies posing as tourists who tried to infiltrate an Alaskan military base. Next up is our numbers section. The proportion of Crimea's water that comes from the reservoir behind the Khovka Dam is 80 percent. The number of people that have already lost their homes to flooding, according to the United Nations, is 16,000. The estimated amount of oil that is already spilled into the Dnieper River is 150 metric tons. The estimated cost of the environmental damage that has already been done is $53.8 million. The amount of agriculture land that is expected to flood on the west side of the river controlled by Ukraine is 25,000 acres. All right, and last but not least, our have a nice day section.

Starting point is 00:23:39 A Brooklyn neighborhood is repairing its relationship with its local police by helping to police itself. The initiative, Brownsville In, Violence Out, is the brainchild of Inspector Terrell Anderson, who took over as commander of the precinct that polices Brownsville, the neighborhood where he grew up. Several times a year, the neighborhood residents, shadowed by plainclothes police, volunteer to respond to 911 calls in an attempt to take some of the load off its police and limit low-level arrests resulting from people causing disturbances. And it seems to be working. According to Brooklyn District Attorney Eric Gonzalez, crime has been decreasing in Brownsville.

Starting point is 00:24:15 In the first half of 2023, homicides fell by 50%, shootings fell 25%, and the rate of car theft fell while it rose in other neighborhoods. We call them and poof, they come right away, 66-year-old Brownsville resident Minerva Vitale said. You think they aren't ready for this? Yes, they are. The New York Times has the story, there's a link to it in today's episode description. All right, everybody, that is it for today's podcast. As always, if you want to support our work, please go to readtangle.com and consider becoming a member. Also, do not forget, we have a live event coming to Philadelphia.

Starting point is 00:24:54 We have tickets on sale. You can go to our website, readtangle.com backslash live to find those tickets. There's also a link to the tickets in today's episode description. And yes, our YouTube channel is up and running and off the ground. I'm posting videos there a few times a week, some shorts. Once a week, we're posting more fleshed out, highly produced videos on stuff we are not covering

Starting point is 00:25:17 in the podcast and the newsletter often. So I encourage you to go check us out on YouTube, subscribe there as well. And we'll be right back here. Same time tomorrow. Have a good one. Peace. The logo for our podcast was designed by Magdalena Bukova, who's also our social media manager. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet 75. For more on Tangle, please go to readtangle.com and check out our website. We'll see you next time. Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+.

Starting point is 00:26:33 The flu remains a serious disease. Last season, over 102,000 influenza cases have been reported across Canada, which is nearly double the historic average of 52,000 cases. What can you do this flu season? Talk to your pharmacist or doctor about getting a flu shot. Consider FluCellVax Quad and help protect yourself from the flu. It's the first cell-based flu vaccine authorized in Canada for ages 6 months and older, and it may be available for free in your province. Side effects and allergic reactions can occur, and 100% protection is not guaranteed.

Tangle - The Ukraine counteroffensive (and the dam attack).

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