Tangle - The Ukraine Situation.

Episode Date: December 9, 2021

Last week, news outlets in the U.S. began reporting that intelligence officials had determined Vladimir Putin was considering a "military action" in Ukraine — possibly an invasion — that could begin as early as 2022. The intelligence finding estimated Russia was planning to deploy as many as 175,000 troops and almost half of them were already present along Ukraine's border.In response, President Joe Biden pledged to make it "very, very difficult" for Putin to take any military action, and then held a two-hour video conference with Putin in which U.S. officials say Biden issued a warning about the economic penalties that would come down if a large-scale invasion took place.You can read today's podcast here.You can subscribe to Tangle by clicking here or drop something in our tip jar by clicking here.Our newsletter is written by Isaac Saul, edited by Bailey Saul, Sean Brady, Ari Weitzman, and produced in conjunction with Tangle’s social media manager Magdalena Bokowa, who also created our logo.The podcast is edited by Trevor Eichhorn, and music for the podcast was produced by Diet 75.--- Send in a voice message: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/tanglenews/message Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Based on Charles Yu's award-winning book, Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu, a background character trapped in a police procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight.

Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. From executive producer Isaac Saul, this is Tangle. Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening, and welcome to the Tangle Podcast, a place where you get views from across the political spectrum, some independent thinking without all that hysterical nonsense you find everywhere else. I'm your host, Isaac Saul, and on today's episode, we are going to be talking about the Ukraine situation, what's happening in Ukraine with Russia and Vladimir Putin and President Biden and what

it means for the U.S. and all that good stuff. Before we jump in, though, as always, we'll start with some quick hits. First up, President Biden opened the first White House Summit for Democracy today, including 110 countries who joined to promote democratic principles. Number two, the House of Representatives passed the bill that would ban imports from Xinjiang, China because of concerns over the treatment of ethnic minorities. Number three, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Australia have joined the United States diplomatic boycott of the Olympics in Beijing. Number four, the late Senator Bob Dole will lie in state at the Capitol today. Number five, 50 Republicans

and two Democrats in the Senate voted to repeal President Biden's testing and vaccine mandates, but the repeal faces steep odds in the House and a certain veto from President Biden's testing and vaccine mandates, but the repeal faces steep odds in the House and a certain veto from President Biden, even if it were to pass. All right, that brings us to today's main topic, which is what's happening in Ukraine. Good evening and thank you for joining us. We want to begin tonight with escalating tensions between the two former Cold War rivals, the U.S. and Russia. During a video call tomorrow, President Biden will personally warn the Russian President Vladimir Putin

about the very real costs if Russia invades Ukraine. Tensions are high over new intelligence that appears to show Russia in the advanced stages of planning an invasion of Ukraine. Last week, news outlets in the United States began reporting that intelligence officials had determined Vladimir Putin was considering a military action in Ukraine, possibly a large scale invasion that could begin as early as 2022. that could begin as early as 2022. The intelligence finding estimated Russia was planning to deploy as many as 175,000 troops, and almost half of them were already present along Ukraine's border. In response, President Joe Biden pledged to make it very, very difficult for Putin to take any military action, and then held a two-hour video conference with Putin in which U.S. officials say he issued a warning about the economic penalties

that would come down if a large-scale invasion took place. So some history here. Ukraine used to be part of the Soviet Union, the expansive socialist state that fell apart in 1991 and gave way to modern-day Russia. Russia and Ukraine share historical ties, including linguistic and cultural overlap, but have also become distinct. Today, Ukraine is a nation about the size of Texas that sits in Eastern Europe, sharing a 1,200-mile border with Russia. Its population is around 44 million people. Over the last decade, rather than functioning as a proxy for Russia, Ukraine has instead moved toward the West, instituting a functioning democracy and aligning itself with many European and North American allies. Much of that shift began in earnest in 2014. That year,

Ukraine's Russia-backed president, Viktor Yanukovych, rejected a deal to integrate more directly with the European Union. The decision caused widespread protests in Ukraine. Russia supported Yanukovych during the civil unrest that followed, which he attempted to put down with force. U.S. and European allies backed the protesters. Eventually, Yanukovych was run out of Ukraine. Not long after, though, Russia invaded and annexed Crimea, a small but valuable territory in southern Ukraine that sits on the Black Sea, where Russia has long held military bases. Today, Ukraine is led by President Volodymyr Zelensky, who has positioned himself as the key to limiting Putin's efforts in expanding

his influence. In so doing, he's asked for support from the U.S. and other Western allies. For Putin, who wants to expand Russia's influence and territory, this is a big problem. Putin's decision to place soldiers on the border is widely viewed as an overt threat to Zelensky. Change your posture with the West or face a large-scale invasion. Russia has already occupied part of eastern Ukraine and annexed Crimea with devastating consequences. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization, also known as NATO, which was formed to counter the Soviet Union during the Cold War, is open to welcoming Ukraine to NATO, and Zelensky and Ukrainians have shared a desire to join. Putin opposes the idea, though, and has called for legal guarantees that NATO will never expand into East Ukraine. It's also true that

Russia is suffering from a host of its own domestic struggles. COVID-19 surges, inflation, stagnant wages, and street protests against Putin's leadership have been widespread in the last couple of years. Historically, it's common for strongman leaders to rally nationalistic pride with military action in times of crisis. Some foreign policy experts believe that may be motivating Putin's actions now. The Kremlin, meanwhile, has called it hysteria and insisted that Russia has no plans to invade. Ukraine and Russia have been locked in a kind of postured stalemate along the border for years, exchanging gunfire as recently as this week.

Russia has also mounted several propaganda campaigns inside Ukraine and used cyber attacks against its military, government, and power sectors. It is also propping up pro-Russian separatists in Donbass, a region of eastern Ukraine that borders Russia. If Russia were to launch a full-scale military invasion, Ukraine would be vastly outgunned and surrounded on three sides. So, what does the United States have to do with all this? Well, the U.S. has supplied military support to Ukraine in recent years, training its soldiers and helping overhaul its armed forces, making it more prepared for an invasion or Russian aggression than it has ever been before. Because Ukraine sits between Russia and Europe, it is a critical territory, and the fact that its current leader has embraced democracy and the West

is a major opportunity for the U.S. to limit Putin's power and support a burgeoning democracy. The U.S. could also threaten Russia, as the Biden administration says it did this week, with sanctions that would further cripple its economy in the event Putin attempted to invade Ukraine. Given Biden's wariness of war and the fact Ukraine has not requested the U.S. to put boots on the ground, it's unlikely our soldiers would ever get involved in a Russia-Ukraine conflict. But our support could help deter Putin. Below, we'll take a look at some reactions to the latest tension from the right and left, including some common ground, and then my take.

First up, some common ground and what the two sides agree on. Both the left and the right have condemned Putin and expressed support for Ukraine's autonomy. Fundamentally, Putin does not believe Ukraine has the right to exist as an independent state, and most American pundits do. While Putin has received some favorable coverage from conservative commentators like Tucker Carlson or far-left pundits like Max Blumenthal, most have urged the U.S. to remain steadfast in its support of Ukraine. all, most have urged the U.S. to remain steadfast in its support of Ukraine. All right, so first up, we'll start with what the right is saying. Biden has been too soft on Russia since entering office, especially in how he handled the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. Biden must remain steadfast in support of Ukraine's independence, and the withdrawal from Afghanistan has left allies questioning our commitments.

The Wall Street Journal editorial board criticized Biden for not selling more weapons to Ukraine or marshalling more support from allies. Mr. Biden came to office promising to talk tough against Mr. Putin, unlike Mr. Trump, but his actions have been weaker, the board wrote. He withdrew U.S. sanctions against the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia to Europe, even as he tries at every turn to restrict U.S. oil and gas production. Higher global energy prices empower Mr. Putin and Iran. The American press has forgotten about Afghanistan, but the rest of the world hasn't. Direct cause and effect are hard to know,

but it seems increasingly likely that Mr. Biden's catastrophic withdrawal from Afghanistan has raised doubts among adversaries about U.S. commitments and the president's judgment. They aim to take advantage. William Galston said it is critical to understand Putin's narrative to fully grasp the threat. An independent Ukraine is for Vladimir Putin what the Treaty of Versailles was for Hitler, a historical injustice imposed on a defeated nation at its moment of greatest weakness, to be reserved as soon as circumstances allow. Mr. Putin's master narrative rests on his interpretation of more than 1,000 years of Russian history, from which he derives the conclusion. Russians and Ukrainian are, quote, one people, a single whole. Speaking variants of one language, professing a common

faith, sharing a common culture whose separation results from a divide and rule strategy pursued for centuries by Russia's enemies. He attributes the idea of the Ukrainian people as a separate nation to 19th century Polish elites and Malo-Russian, little Russian intellectuals, a theory concocted with no historical basis and subsequently adopted by Austro-Hungarian authorities for their own purposes before World War I. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, picking up speed after Ukraine's Orange Revolution in 2004 and 2005, Mr. Putin charges, Russia's enemies in the West have conspired with right-wing and neo-Nazi Ukrainians to create an anti-Russia project, whose purpose is to drive a wedge between Russia and

Ukraine. Although the two countries are natural complementary economic partners that have long developed a single economic system, the West has used loans and grants to cut Ukraine off from Russia and subordinate it to foreign economic interests. In the Washington Examiner, Janusz Bugaski said Biden's attempts to placate Moscow and dissuade it from another invasion of Ukraine will not have the intended effect. The Kremlin does not accept the existence of an independent Ukrainian state that aspires to Western integration, he said. The primary purpose of Russia's military buildup along Ukraine's borders is to convince Washington to push Kiev into accepting Russian-directed autonomous regions on its territory that will block its Western progress. Washington, Brussels, and Berlin must appear to the Kremlin as the three kings bearing geostrategic gifts. The first gift has been the acceptance of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline to help Moscow strangle Ukraine economically, deprive it of substantial energy

transit fees, increase Europe's dependence on Moscow's energy supplies, and deepen the European Union's susceptibility to geopolitical blackmail. Biden's second gift to Putin may well be Ukraine's territories. Moscow is ratcheting up the threat of invasion to convince Biden to pressure Ukraine into major concessions. Biden's third gift to Putin, with the French and German applause, could paradoxically be what many analysis feared during the Trump administration. It would entail a grand bargain between the U.S. and Russia, whereby in return for stability and predictability, Moscow would be allowed to exert privileged influence over its former conquests. All right, so that is it for the right's take, which brings us to what the left is saying.

So again, there is some common ground here, but the left is saying that a threat of an invasion is real and the U.S. needs to rally European allies to the defense. It's also saying Biden must remain steadfast in support of Ukraine's independence, and that it's worth exploring some concessions to avoid an all-out war. In CNN, Frida Gita said that Putin's actions may be shrouded in a fog, but his track record is clear. If he's allowed to advance his goals without serious consequences, he will continue to escalate his foreign policy of bullying and intimidation. In 2014, as little green men dressed in unmarked military uniforms deployed across Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula, Putin denied they were his forces until Russia took control of the territory and annexed it. Anyone who paid

attention to how Russia stole that strategic peninsula from a sovereign country knows how much weight to give the Kremlin's words now. As U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken noted, we've seen this playbook. Part of Moscow's playbook includes creating a justification for an attack, and that part of the strategy is already moving forward, she added. Based on Charles Yu's award-winning book, Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu, a background character trapped in a police procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th,

only on Disney+. When Russia attacked Ukraine in the past, capturing Crimea and supporting pro-Russian separatists in Donbass, the region of Ukraine adjacent to Russia, the Kremlin claimed it was doing it to defend ethnic Russians living under Ukrainian rule. Putin is already deploying the argument for a future assault. An elaborate information operation, among other propaganda points, paints Ukrainian leaders as puppets of the West. In the Washington Post, David Ignatius wrote about the huge risk Putin would face if he actually launched an invasion. Beyond the battle against uniformed troops and intelligence operatives, Putin would probably face a prolonged guerrilla war from Ukrainian militias. Knowledgeable sources estimate that more than 400,000 pro-Kiev Ukrainians have received at

least some training since Russia's 2014 incursion, and that there are at least 1 million weapons in private hands, including AK-47s and other automatic weapons looted from government stores. As many as 15 militia groups are spread throughout the country, some virulently right-wing, but all capable of causing havoc for Moscow and probably Kiev too. Putin would face immediate battlefield risks, but the longer-term consequences would be far worse, even if he installed a government subservient to Moscow. If Biden followed through on his threats, Russia's economy would be wrecked, Ignatius said. A Russia that went to war with Ukraine would only have China as a reliable ally.

That might console Putin, but it should panic President Xi Jinping. The China-Russia axis would cement a decoupled world in which the United States and the technologically advanced democracies would have a huge and probably lasting advantage over Moscow and Beijing. In Slate, Fred Kaplan said that Biden should test Putin's intentions. The caveats are these. Okay, we guarantee that Ukraine will not be let into NATO and that no U.S. weapons capable of threatening Russia will be deployed in close vicinity to Russian territory, as Putin put it in his Kremlin speech. But in exchange, Russia will pull its troops and heavy military equipment out of Ukraine

and away from the border. Some sort of truly neutral international peacekeeping force will move in to replace them, and Russia will pledge not to interfere with Ukraine's internal politics. All right, that's it for the left and the right's take, which brings us to my take. So this is not my area of expertise. You might have noticed me, you know, butchering some Ukrainian and Russian names and towns there. Although I will say I do read a ton about this stuff. I

have a very dear friend who is an expert on Ukrainian politics, and we talk a lot about Ukraine and Russia and what's going on right now. And I should also say that the Ukraine-Russia history here should be viewed as a solid primer, though it's far from exhaustive. Still, I think the reactions to Putin's military buildup on the border of Ukraine are instructive, and I definitely have some thoughts about them. For one, it's worth just abandoning some of the U.S.-centric view of this conflict. I was particularly perturbed by the absurd Tucker Carlson monologue on Fox News in which he insisted that Putin was simply defending his borders and demanded the U.S. refuse to send troops to fight Russia and Ukraine. I'm often enthusiastic about the right-wing anti-war coalition that Carlson regularly drums up, but the idea that Putin's

military pressure is as simple as defending his borders is a cut and paste from Russian state propaganda, which honestly should not be regurgitated on U.S. networks without the context of Putin's track record. More importantly, though, and more to the point, is the fact that nobody is suggesting that U.S. send its troops to Ukraine. It's kind of just a straw man invented argument that Carlson made and many other Republicans are also making. Biden isn't hankering for a war. He's been trying to exit them, however, ham-handedly. Nor is the U.S. public hankering for a war, and nor is the Ukrainian government asking us to come fight for them. They've been fighting their own war against a superior military force for years. The proxy war in East Ukraine alone has left 13,000 dead. Ukrainians have sacrificed a great deal in the effort to keep Putin out and keep their fledgling democracy alive.

For Biden, all of this is close to home. He ran point on Ukraine diplomacy as vice president, and he undoubtedly wants to see it continue moving in the direction it is now. And for us, that should be the part that matters a great deal too. Democracy is in retreat across the globe, and even here in the U.S., it's facing plenty of its own challenges. Ukraine, however large a challenge it faces from corruption or political factionalism, has long been fighting for democracy, for a view of the world where people get to choose their leaders and rely on a government that serves them. Putin's insistence that Russia and Ukraine are one is built on a belief that Ukraine belongs to him, which it doesn't. It belongs to the Ukrainian

people who are attempting to determine their own path forward. The least we can do in the West is stand with them. We don't need to and shouldn't go to war for the cause, and nobody is suggesting we do. What it does mean is that the threat of economic sanctions, the committed resources of diplomacy and military training and support are all worthwhile. It's an ideal worth standing up for, especially at a time when so many authoritarian leaders are on the march forward. All right, that's it for my take. That brings us to our reader question for the day. This one comes from Greg in Weymouth, Massachusetts. He says, Isaac, I'm a subscriber.

Just wondering if you'd consider not putting the name of shooters anywhere in your content. Please look at the Daily Wire's policy on that. I think you could really contribute by making people aware of this and help reduce the notoriety of some of these people and what they're looking for. Greg, yeah, this is an excellent point. It's actually a Tango policy that I've implemented in the past not to name mass shooters. And in reflecting on yesterday's post, I think you're right. I think it was a mistake to name the shooter and to publish the mugshot of the shooter and his parents.

In my head, I rationalized the decision since the parents weren't the actual shooters and because in this case the shooter didn't really seem motivated by fame or politics. There was no manifesto or publicly stated intent as there often is. That being said, I do believe in the contagion effect. And in past coverage, I've actually explained that and why Tangle doesn't publish the names of mass shooters. So in this case, I think you're right. Yeah, it was a lapse of judgment. And I love the idea of a full-throated commitment to this policy going forward. And so we'll try and implement it. Thanks, Greg. All right, before we head into our final sign-off here, just a quick heads up. If you want to

subscribe to Tangle and get tomorrow's edition, I'm going to be doing something I very rarely do, which is I'm going to be publishing 19 predictions about the future of politics. I usually try to avoid political prognostication and generally will continue to do that going forward. But I thought it'd be fun just this once to publish and then track a set of predictions of mine about the future. So if you want to see what I think is going to happen in the next five or 10 years, you have to subscribe to Tangle, www.readtangle.com backslash subscribe. All right, that brings us to our story that matters. This one is about the IRS,

which is about to send out December's child tax credit. Although what happens in January is now up to Congress. Lawmakers will have to renew the program, which was pushed through without any support from Republicans before it lapses next month. Millions of households have been receiving up to $300 per month for children under the age of six and up to $250 for kids aged 6 to 17 since July. If it passes Biden's climate change and social spending bill as it was drafted in the House, the payments would continue through 2022. But Congress needs to renew them before Christmas to ensure they go uninterrupted.

The Wall Street Journal has that story. You can find a link for it in today's newsletter. All right, now to our numbers section. $65.1 billion was Russia's military budget in 2019. $5.23 billion was Ukraine's military budget in 2019. $145.9 million is the population of Russia. $43.3 million is the population of Ukraine. 17 years is the combined tenure of Vladimir Putin's four terms in office. Two years is the length of Volodymyr Zelensky's term in office. All right, and finally, our have a nice day story.

I guess this one could kind of be viewed as scary news, depending on who you are, if you're a pessimist maybe, but I personally think it's awesome. NASA has officially launched its next generation asteroid impact monitoring system. They call it Century 2, which is straight out of a sci-fi movie. The system is a new monitoring algorithm that will help NASA track tens of thousands of near-Earth asteroids and then project their trajectory. NASA said popular culture often depicts asteroids as chaotic objects that zoom haphazardly around our solar system,

changing course unpredictably and threatening our planet without a moment's notice. This is not the reality, NASA said. Asteroids are extremely predictable celestial bodies that obey the laws of physics and follow knowable orbital paths around the sun. The system comes as NASA is also testing an asteroid defense system where a spacecraft is used to intentionally collide with an asteroid and push its trajectory away from Earth. NASA has the story. You can find a link for it in the newsletter. All right, everybody, that is it for today's podcast. As always, if you want to support us,

click that link in the episode description, spread the word, hit us with a five-star rating. And if you want to hear from us tomorrow, make sure you subscribe. Again, readtangle.com backslash membership. Otherwise, we will see you on Monday. Have a great weekend. Our newsletter is written by Isaac Saul, edited by Bailey Saul, Sean Brady, Ari Weitzman, and produced in conjunction with Tangle's social media manager, Magdalena Bokova, who also helped create our logo. The podcast is edited by Trevor Eichhorn, and music for the podcast was produced by Diet75. For more from Tangle, subscribe to our newsletter or check out our content archives at www.readtangle.com. Thanks for watching! becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+.