Tangle - The war in Ukraine escalates.

Episode Date: October 13, 2022

Today, we're covering some harrowing updates from the war in Ukraine. Plus, a question about drawing the perfect congressional map.You can read today's podcast here, today’s “Under the Radar” story here, and today’s “Have a nice day” story here.Today’s clickables: Quick hits (1:09), Today’s story (2:28), Right’s take (7:05), Left’s take (11:56), Isaac’s take (16:55), Listener question (21:20), Under the Radar (23:32), Numbers (24:26), Have a nice day (25:02)You can subscribe to Tangle by clicking here or drop something in our tip jar by clicking here.Our podcast is written by Isaac Saul and produced by Trevor Eichhorn. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet 75.Our newsletter is edited by Bailey Saul, Sean Brady, Ari Weitzman, and produced in conjunction with Tangle’s social media manager Magdalena Bokowa, who also created our logo.--- Send in a voice message: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/tanglenews/message Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Based on Charles Yu's award-winning book, Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu, a background character trapped in a police procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. The flu remains a serious disease. Last season, over 102,000 influenza cases have been reported across Canada, which is Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. yourself from the flu. It's the first cell-based flu vaccine authorized in Canada for ages six months and older, and it may be available for free in your province. Side effects and allergic reactions can occur, and 100% protection is not guaranteed. Learn more at flucellvax.ca.

From executive producer Isaac Saul, this is Tangle. Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening, and welcome to the Tangle podcast, a place where you get views from across the political spectrum. Some independent thinking without all that hysterical nonsense you find everywhere else. I'm your host, Isaac Saul, and on today's episode, we are going to be talking about the latest from the war in Ukraine. There have been some escalations, I think it's fair to say, over the last few days, and we are in a pretty perilous moment. So as much as I do not love covering this topic because it's pretty upsetting, I think, and I know we have covered it a lot, I also think it sort of hit the threshold of being necessary to revisit today. So we're going to jump in with that.

Before we do, though, as always, we'll start off with some quick hits. off with some quick hits. First up, the Social Security Administration announced an 8.7% social security cost of living raise, the largest increase since 1981, in response to inflation. Number two, the Labor Department said the Core Consumer Price Index, the CPI, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, gained 6.6% in September, up from 6.3% in August and hitting a new four-decade high. The overall Consumer Price Index increased 8.2% in September from a year earlier. in September from a year earlier. Number three, the House January 6th Committee will hold its ninth and perhaps final public hearing today, saying it will summarize its findings and show new evidence of Trump's role in January 6th. Number four, Los Angeles City Council member Nuri Martinez, a Democrat, resigned after leaked audio of racist remarks. Number five, Alex Jones, the host of InfoWars, was ordered by a jury to pay

nearly $1 billion in damages to the families of eight Sandy Hook shooting victims for lies about them and their children being crisis actors that resulted in years of harassment. An explosion on a bridge connecting Crimea and Russia rocked a country already frayed because of war. The Ukrainians are winning the conventional war here, and this is why Putin is getting very jittery. Putin is making his last-ditch effort. This is why he's escalating. Russian missiles can find you anywhere in Ukraine now,

as Russia widens its offensive to attack civilians across the country. I cannot continue with impunity to talk about the use of a tactical nuclear weapon as if that's a rational thing to do. Given that we've covered the war in Ukraine several times in the last month, we weren't planning on covering it again, but recent events have brought it back to the forefront. Over the weekend, a bridge linking Russia to the annexed Crimean Peninsula was damaged by a suspected truck bomb. Details of the attack are still sparse,

but officials suspect that a truck full of IED explosives detonated on the bridge, which also carries railroad tracks. Questions remain, like whether the driver of the truck knew the cargo was full of explosives or not. The Crimean Bridge, also known as the Kerch Bridge, is the only overland link between Russia and the territory it annexed in 2014, and the damage from the blast seriously disrupted Russia's most important supply line for troops fighting in southern Ukraine. At least three people died from the attack, which sent part of the 12-mile bridge into the sea. Putin called the attack an act of

terrorism, and on Monday, Russia responded to the strike by raining cruise missiles across populated regions of Ukraine, including the capital, Kiev. Reuters reported explosions across western, southern, and eastern Ukraine. At least 11 people were killed, scores were injured, power was knocked out, and civilians and tourists were rushed to bomb shelters. It was the biggest wave of airstrikes since the war began eight months ago. Russia's President Vladimir Putin said he ordered the wave of strikes and retaliation for the attack on the bridge. To leave such acts without a response is simply impossible, he said, alleging other unspecified attacks on Russian energy infrastructure. Ukrainian President

Volodymyr Zelensky said Russia's strikes were time to kill people and knock out the power grid, leaving parts of the country with no electricity, water, or heat. They are trying to destroy us and wipe us off the face of the earth, Zelensky said. On Wednesday, Russia announced the arrest of eight people in connection with the bombing of the bridge, including five Russian citizens. Last month, Putin warned that he would use all means at his disposal to protect Russia if Russia-controlled territory were threatened, which would seemingly include the bridge bombed by Ukraine and the four recently annexed regions of Ukraine. U.S. officials have maintained that the chances of Russia using nuclear weapons is low, and senior American officials have told the New York Times that they've seen no evidence of Putin moving any

of his nuclear assets. Meanwhile, Putin's spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, has said the attack on the bridge did not fall within the category under Russia's defense doctrine that allows for a nuclear response. Still, fears of nuclear escalation are rising, with some Ukrainians if Russia uses a nuclear weapon in Ukraine, a comment his administration later qualified by noting that the U.S. has no new intelligence of any nuclear threat. Today, we are going to take a look at some opinions on the latest in the fighting with views from the right and the left here in the States. You can find our previous coverage of the war with a link in today's episode description. First up, we'll start with what the right is saying. Many on the right condemn Putin's attacks, and some argue we should provide missile defense systems as soon as possible. Others suggest

Congress needs to retake control of America's war powers before we enter the conflict militarily. Some defend the attack on the bridge, arguing it was a highly valuable military asset. The Wall Street Journal editorial board called for more missile defenses for Ukraine. The attacks follow the Russian pattern going back to the beginning of the invasion, the board said. Ukraine registers an apparent military success, as it or someone did in striking the Kerch Bridge between Russia and Crimea. Russia responds with an attack on civilian targets or infrastructure that is important for civilians such as water or electricity plants. Mr. Putin blamed Ukraine for the Kerch Bridge attack, which blew up the main lifeline to supply Crimea,

which Russia invaded and annexed from Ukraine in 2014. He called the bridge attack a terrorist attack, which is what his entire Ukraine campaign has been. Ukrainian officials said Russia fired 84 missiles and that 43 were intercepted, the board added. Most landed in cities across Ukraine, as far west as Lviv, that intercepted, the board added. Most landed in cities across Ukraine as far west as Lviv that are far from the active battlefield, some hitting rush hour commuters. Russia claims it is firing precision guided munitions at military targets, but its

missiles must not be very precise, the board said. The U.S. agreed in July to supply the National Advanced Surface to Air Missile System, but that won't reach Ukraine for several months. The U.S. has been reluctant to supply Patriot missile batteries for reasons that seem related to risks of escalation with the NATO weapons system, but that line has already been crossed. Mr. Putin won't end this war until it becomes clear the cost of continuing it is too high. In The Federalist, Catherine Thompson said Congress's duty to Americans must trump its infatuation with wars. Russian President Vladimir Putin is threatening the use of nuclear weapons in order to defend annexed territory in Ukraine, she wrote. In a response now seen by the Kremlin as further provocation, Ukraine officially submitted its application for fast-track membership to the NATO alliance.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said of Ukraine, De facto, we have already proven compatibility with alliance standards. track membership to the NATO alliance. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said of Ukraine, de facto, we have already proven compatibility with alliance standards. We trust each other, we help each other, and we protect each other. To turn up the heat even more, the U.S. foreign policy establishment believes the U.S. would and should respond to any use of nuclear weapons by Russia, even if it's solely contained within Ukraine's borders, all but guaranteeing the conflict would spill into NATO territory. President Joe Biden's promise of unwavering support for Ukraine, deployments to the European theater, and massive arms commitment have all gone completely unchecked. In fact, Congress continues to blindly affirm in a bipartisan

fashion policies towards Ukraine that make it nearly impossible for the U.S. to exercise any restraint as the risk of being drawn into the nuclear war in Europe grows. For the American policies towards Ukraine that make it nearly impossible for the U.S. to exercise any restraint as the risk of being drawn into the nuclear war in Europe grows. For the American people burnt out on years of endless wars in the Middle East, Congress must draw red lines. President Biden and NATO need a reminder that Ukraine is not a NATO ally, and even if it were, no military response could go forward without a vote in Congress. In the Washington Examiner, Adam Zivo said the attack on the bridge was not terrorism. When a transportation infrastructure is requisitioned for war, it becomes a legitimate target for attack, a fact

Russia has tacitly acknowledged through prior bombardment of Ukrainian bridges, Zivo wrote. The Kerch Bridge was built by the Kremlin and opened in 2018, four years after Russia illegally annexed Crimea. It symbolized Moscow's intent to control Crimea in perpetuity through tighter physical and economic ties. When Putin launched his full-scale invasion in February, the bridge was used to transport troops and weapons to Crimea quickly, allowing the Russian military to march northward and occupy most of Ukraine's southern coast. Considering these factors, the Russians anticipated that the Kerch Bridge would be attacked and prepared extensive defenses accordingly, including anti-air systems,

radar jammers, and anti-sabotage boats. But there was a hole in their security. Though the exact details behind the attack are unconfirmed, it is widely suspected that the bridge was bombed through a truck filled with IEDs, he said. Again, however, it takes a lot of mental gymnastics to describe the Kerch Bridge attack as terrorism. According to Article 52 of the Geneva Convention, legitimate military targets are those that by their nature, location, purpose, or use make an effective contribution to military action, and whose total or partial destruction, capture, or neutralization, in the circumstances ruling at the time, offers a definite military advantage. Under this definition, attacks on the infrastructure that contributes to wartime supplies, including bridges, are legitimate and not acts of terrorism. All right, that is it for what the right is saying, which brings us to what the left is saying.

Some on the left insist we must continue to defend Ukraine and retaliate militarily if Putin uses any kind of nuclear weapons. Others argue that we should be working to de-escalate the conflict and turn to history for guidance on how. Some say this latest volley of combat is a reminder of why Ukraine is winning the war. In Politico, former Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said the U.S. must be prepared to respond with military force if Putin uses nuclear weapons in Ukraine. As Secretary of Defense, I heard the arguments that the use of such weapons could be limited and targeted in a way that would not result in a nuclear war, Panetta wrote. The problem with that kind of rationale is that retaliation knows no limits.

Any attack will demand a firm response, and any firm response will risk the danger of escalation. It is precisely because the use of any nuclear weapons is so unthinkable that Putin cannot be allowed to continue his threats without understanding the full consequences to him and his regime. He says he is not bluffing. We cannot afford to bluff either. While the United States and our NATO allies should continue to warn publicly of catastrophic consequences of Putin's reckless nuclear saber-rattling, we should be brutally clear to Putin in private. If he makes a reckless decision to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, the U.S. will respond with direct military force against Russian troops waging the war in Ukraine,

ensuring Putin's defeat there, Panetta wrote. We must be prepared to use U.S. military assets, including combat aircraft and cruise missile strikes, to ensure that Putin cannot threaten Ukraine with nuclear weapons. While the administration will need to be vague about what particular forces it will deploy, it should communicate that it could include the full range of conventional capabilities we have in our arsenal, which Putin knows would devastate his military. In the Washington Post, Katrina Vanden Heuvel said we should look to the Cuban Missile Crisis for guidance on how to act now. Based on Charles Yu's award-winning book, Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu, a background character trapped in a police

procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. The flu remains a serious disease. Last season, over 102,000 influenza cases have been reported across Canada, which is nearly double the historic average of 52,000 cases. What can you do this flu season? Talk to your pharmacist or doctor about getting a flu shot. Consider FluCellVax Quad and help protect yourself from the flu.

It's the first cell-based flu vaccine authorized in Canada for ages 6 months and older, and it may be available for free in your province. Side effects and allergic reactions can occur, and 100% protection is not guaranteed. Learn more at FluCellVax.ca. and 100% protection is not guaranteed. Learn more at flucellvax.ca. The Cuban Missile Crisis proved that even in the face of potential nuclear devastation, de-escalation is possible and diplomacy can prevail, she said. Experts and scholars have re-litigated the crisis for decades, but in recent years, archives and memoirs have clarified the picture of what happened during those 13 days starting on October 16th, 1962. De-escalation, as historian Martin Sherwin makes

clear, begins with dialogue. During the Cuban Missile Crisis, people such as General Curtis LeMay argued that negotiation was tantamount to appeasement, but level-headed discussion is essential to avoiding certain doom. To sacrifice it in the name of jingoistic posturing is not just absurd, it's potentially apocalyptic. Today, as the world faces the threat of obliteration once more, figures of all stripes are calling for dialogue to prevent doomsday, she said. A small but growing list of progressive members of Congress, along with several peace advocacy organizations, are increasingly focused on how best to promote de-escalation and dialogue, inspired by a truth that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has

himself maintained. This war will only definitively end through diplomacy. Pope Francis issued an unprecedented statement calling for global leaders to do everything possible to bring an end to the war. Even former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger has reiterated the importance of dialogue. In The Atlantic, Philip Payson O'Brien said Russia just showed why it is floundering in Ukraine. On Saturday, Ukraine showed why it is winning the war against Russia. On Monday, Russia showed why it is losing. One is clever, well-prepared, willing to undertake complex operations, and focused on maximally damaging its enemy's ability to fight. The other is prone to bursts of rage and is open to committing any

crime possible, but its actions are ultimately self-defeating, he said. Russia's dependence on this one supply line has been a constant source of worry for Putin and his generals. Its evident vulnerability is one reason they supposedly went to great lengths to defend the Crimean Bridge from attack. This is what made Saturday's operation so crucial. The Ukrainians identified a logistical target of potentially decisive importance, secretly developed a plan to eliminate it, kept word from leaking out, and then executed the plan with considerable success. On Monday, the Russians responded in a manner that was both homicidal and pointless.

Starting early in the morning, they fired almost every type of missile in their arsenal. And what has it gained from this extraordinary expenditure? The Russians have hit little of military value, O'Brien said. Far from damaging Ukraine's ability to fight off the invasion, this week's strikes have probably increased it. They have provided the Ukrainians with more experience shooting down Russian offensive equipment. Instead of weakening Ukrainian resistance, these Russian attacks will likely turbocharge it. Finally, Ukraine's allies are responding by providing more aid, including the vital air defense equipment that President Volodymyr Zelensky's government has been eager to procure.

to procure. All right, that is it for the left and the right are saying, which brings us to my take. So the contours of how the recent developments in Ukraine are playing with the American public fascinates me. Each side seems utterly divided on how to proceed. Among moderate Democrat and Republican voters and establishment politicians, there seems to be significant alignment about defending Ukraine among people who agree on practically nothing else. Meanwhile, the ultra progressive factions on the left and the anti-establishment factions on the right seem to be shouting in unison that we are on some kind of unhinged path toward World War III. All the while, the majority of the American public does seem to continue to support our aid to Ukraine. It's a nice reminder of why I and others reject the premise of fitting any story into any political bucket.

As for the actual war, well, it just keeps getting uglier. The day Russia invaded Ukraine, among many other things, I wrote the following, quote, In Ukraine, it will be all hands on deck. Fathers, mothers, teenagers, and grandparents will stand side by side with their military. They will take up arms and fight, and many of them will die violent deaths. This will be the result of Putin's decision to invade, based on the absurd notion that a nation of 40 million free Ukrainians belongs to him. We're eight months into the war now, and frankly, this is all even worse than I imagined. And somehow, in a terrifying gut check, the latest sequence is a reminder that things can still get far worse.

Ukraine's attack on the Crimean Bridge, which they do not seem keen on hiding, has created an interesting litmus test. Given that three people who died are presumably civilians, and that it appears possible the driver of the truck was on a suicide mission, commentators like Michael Tracy have described the bombing as an ISIS-style attack. Certainly, if a Ukrainian soldier drove a truck onto the bridge and detonated a load of IEDs, knowingly killing himself for the cause, it's fair to call it a suicide bombing. That's literally the definition of the act. And I don't blame Tracy for being reminded of acts of terrorism we've seen in other conflicts. But even if this had been a suicide attack, I don't think it's the Ukrainians who are committing terrorism. If we accept the definition of terrorism as being strikes on civilian centers,

or strikes that kill civilians, or strikes that serve no military purpose other than to unleash terror, then Russia's army, which has been bombarding schools, hospitals, city centers, and rural towns since the beginning of the war, has far more blood on its hands. As Adam Zivo makes clear in his piece quoted in What the Right is Saying, Ukraine's attack was a military act, a legitimate tactical act of war as defined by the Geneva Convention. Again, this is all just a reminder of how ugly things have gotten. I don't have access to the same information as U.S. intelligence analysts, but I don't find the prospect of nuclear war particularly likely. There's no need to make this ambiguous. If Putin were to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine of any kind, the U.S. and NATO will respond with military force. There are far too many people in power

eager to bring the hammer down on Putin while flexing NATO's military muscle, and it will likely only be a matter of days or weeks before nearly all of Putin's assets outside of Russia were destroyed. If I know this, Putin knows it too, which makes it very unlikely to me that he would do anything to draw US or NATO allies into this war. He's been quite careful so far not to do that, and I don't think that is going to change. All that being said, since the war began, I've supported the US and NATO allies providing Ukraine with air missile defense systems. I never understood why they weren't, and I don't see any reason why this is controversial. Protecting yourself from incoming rockets is not an act of aggression, and the only person who really drew that line is Putin, who again is the same person willing to cross any lines drawn by the rest of the world.

We should be doing everything we can to end this war and prevent global nuclear conflict, obviously. It feels absurd to even have to say that. But we also have a responsibility to discourage future acts of aggression and to prevent the genocide of Ukrainians, who are currently living under daily shellings and attacks in civilian centers across their country. All right, that is it for my take, which brings us to your questions answered. This one is from Ted in Hudson, Wisconsin. Ted said, I'm a computer programmer. Assuming you have all the data you want, how would you want I'm a computer programmer. Assuming you have all the data you

want, how would you want redistricting to be calculated, assuming you can start with a clean slate? I've asked many folks and nobody can tell me. The only thing people I've talked to can agree on is each district should have a similar, if not exact, number of voters. So Ted, this is a great question. I also do not have a great answer. and I also agree that they should be made up of roughly the same number of voters. I can tell you what I don't want districts to do. I don't want them to crack counties or precincts based on made-up boundaries, i.e. districts should be drawn in accordance with existing geographical boundaries. geographical boundaries. I don't want them to be drawn in a way where one party has disproportionate control. I.e., if 50% of voters in a state are Democrats, but 75% of their districts are run by Republicans, we have a problem. Ideally, redistricting creates competitive districts

that match the balance of how competitive an entire state is. When we redistrict to make non-competitive districts, as is the case now, we get more extreme politicians and much worse representation. Key to that, in my opinion, is that redistricting can't be done solely by the state party in power. It should be done by an independent commission. Now, that isn't foolproof either. In California, an independent commission produced a map that would give Democrats 75% of the congressional seats despite owning just 59% of the statewide vote. But other states, like Virginia, have done a great job producing fair, balanced maps that appease both sides. Dave Dodson has made the case for a constitutional

amendment that would prohibit gerrymandering based on political preferences, which makes a lot of sense to me. This way, states could draw maps based on a lot of things, but not on maximizing political outcomes. Honestly, it doesn't surprise me that people struggle to tell you how maps should be drawn. It is a lot easier to discuss how they shouldn't, but describing what we don't want might not be a bad approach. I think limiting what can be done is a good way to solve gerrymandering. way to solve gerrymandering. All right, that is it for our reader question today, which brings us to our under the radar section. The average ACT test scores for students in the high school class of 2022 dropped to its lowest level in over three decades. Declining scores on the standardized tests are the latest indicator of the pandemic's damage to the nation's students,

millions of whom were pushed into at-home or hybrid learning as a precaution from COVID. But it's not all pandemic-related. Scores have been declining steadily for five years. The average test score in 2022 was a 19.8 out of 36. In 2021, it was a 20.3. In 2020, it was 20.6. And in 2019, it was 20.7. The Associated Press has the story on these scores and what it means.

There is a link to it in today's episode description. All right, next up is our numbers section. The estimated cost of some of the advanced missiles being launched by Russia into Ukraine is $10 million. The amount of economic assistance Congress has approved for Ukraine is $13 billion. The amount of military aid Congress has sent to Ukraine since the war began is $17 billion. The proposed size of the annual defense spending bill currently in the Senate is $847 billion. The pay raise for military members and Defense Department civilians proposed in that bill is 4.6%. All right, and last but not least, our have a nice day section. The 10th time is the charm.

For the last 10 years, Jamie Graham has been competing in the All-New England Giant Pumpkin Weigh Off, and for 10 years straight, he has fallen short of the first place prize, until now. On September 30th, Graham's pumpkin weighed in at 2,479 pounds, not just winning this year, but beating the previous year's record of 2,294 pounds. but beating the previous year's record of 2,294 pounds. He took home an $8,500 cash prize for the win. Graham is 37 and his kids named the pumpkin Bear Swipe because black bears have been known to paw at his pumpkin beasts as they grow. Today has the story and there is a link in today's episode description.

And yes, there is a picture of this pumpkin in today's newsletter. And yes, there is a picture of this pumpkin in today's newsletter. All right, everybody, that is it for today's podcast. Quick reminder, tomorrow, Friday, subscribers only, newsletter goes out. I'm going to be writing about Herschel Walker. That's all I'm going to say. I think, you know, we're going to stir the pot a little bit. I've got some opinions I'm not seeing out there, and I'm going to share them. If you want to get it, you have to subscribe. You need to be a member. So please go to readtangle.com slash membership to subscribe or just go to

readtangle.com and log in and then go to our little portal and become a member. It would be really great if you did that. Either way, we'll be right back here on Monday. Have a good one. Peace. Our podcast is written by me, Isaac Saul, and edited and produced by Trevor Eichhorn. Our script is edited by Ari Weitzman, Sean Brady, and Bailey Saul. Shout out to our interns, Audrey Moorhead and Watkins Kelly, and our social media manager, Magdalena Bokova, who designed our logo. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet75.

For more from Tangle, subscribe to our newsletter or check out our website at www.readtangle.com. We'll see you next time. Based on Charles Yu's award-winning book, Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu, a background character trapped in a police procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. The flu remains a serious disease. Last season, over 102,000 influenza cases have Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. and help protect yourself from the flu. It's the first cell-based flu vaccine authorized in Canada for ages six months and older, and it may be available for free in your province. Side effects and allergic reactions can occur,

and 100% protection is not guaranteed. Learn more at flucellvax.ca.