Tangle - Trump, Biden win New Hampshire primary.

Episode Date: January 24, 2024

The New Hampshire primary. Last night, former President Donald Trump won New Hampshire's Republican primary in decisive fashion, earning 54.4% of the vote to Nikki Haley's 43.3%. President Joe Biden, despite not appearing on the ballot in New Hampshire, won 53.8% of the Democratic vote via write-in (with 13,581 unprocessed write-in ballots still outstanding as of 11 am ET), easily besting his top two challengers, Rep. Dean Phillips (MN), who got 19.6%, and Marianne Williamson, who earned 4.6%.You can read today's podcast ⁠⁠here⁠⁠, our “Under the Radar” story here, and today’s “Have a nice day” story here.You can also check out our latest YouTube video about misinformation and fake news that has spread like wildfire in the three months since Hamas’s attack on Israel and the subsequent fighting in Gaza here.Today’s clickables: A favor to ask (0:42), Quick hits (2:06), Today’s story (4:09), Left’s take (7:56), Right’s take (11:26), Interview with Henry Olsen (14:14), Isaac’s take (24:47), Listener question (30:32), Under the Radar (32:39), Check out our YouTube channel (33:33), Numbers (34:12), Have a nice day (35:20)You can subscribe to Tangle by clicking here or drop something in our tip jar by clicking here. Are you a student interested in journalism, politics, and media? Know someone who is? We’ve opened applications for Tangle’s college ambassador program and are looking for engaged, enthusiastic college students to represent Tangle on their campuses. Applications will be open from January 23-February 4, and the program will run through the spring semester. If you or someone you know is interested, we are accepting applications here.Email Will Kaback at [e-mail] with any questions!Take the poll. Which Republican do you think would stand a better chance in a head-to-head matchup against Joe Biden? Let us know!Our podcast is written by Isaac Saul and edited and engineered by Jon Lall. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet 75. Our newsletter is edited by Managing Editor Ari Weitzman, Will Kaback, Bailey Saul, Sean Brady, and produced in conjunction with Tangle’s social media manager Magdalena Bokowa, who also created our logo.--- Send in a voice message: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/tanglenews/message Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

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From executive producer Isaac Saul, this is Tangle. Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening, and welcome to the Tangle podcast, the place we get views from across the political spectrum, some independent thinking, and a little bit of my take. I'm your host, Isaac Saul. Today is Wednesday, January 24th, and we're going to be talking about the New Hampshire primary results, a pretty big night in the 2024 political campaigning world. Before we jump in, though, I've got a quick favor to ask. All across the media space right now, we are seeing the challenges that legacy media platforms are facing. We've gotten news of layoffs at Time

Magazine, Sports Illustrated, the Los Angeles Times, and Condé Nast just this week alone, to name a few. Tangle is trying to win by doing something different. We're trying to survive by zigging where other places are zagging, and we need your help. So if you want to continue supporting our work, help us avoid the fate of some of the other folks out there. Please consider sharing this podcast with friends. Just take two minutes, press share, send the link, tell a friend to subscribe, or send them the newsletter link, the link to our website, readtangle.com. The vast majority of our revenue comes from our newsletter subscribers. I don't care how you do it. Just share Tangle with some folks,

tell them to jump on board. And if you have another extra 15 or 20 seconds, go give us a five-star rating wherever you rate podcasts. That's a good way for us to get the attention of some of these podcast platforms and convince them to feature our work. All right, that is it for my request. With that out of the way, we're going to jump in with some quick hits. First up, Hamas rejected a two-month ceasefire proposal from Israel in exchange for releasing all Israeli hostages. Hamas instead called for a full withdrawal from Gaza in exchange for the release of hostages. Number two, Johnson & Johnson agreed to pay a $700 million fine to settle investigations from 40 states about its talcum-based baby powder.

Number three, the Los Angeles Times, once one of the country's largest newspapers, announced it was laying off more than 20% of its newsroom staff. Four days ago, journalists at the Times went on strike for the first time in its 142-year history. Number four, Turkey approved Sweden for membership into NATO. Hungary is now the last remaining country needed to approve Sweden for it to join the alliance. And number five, the United States conducted more airstrikes against Iran-backed militias in Iraq, responding to recent attacks on coalition forces in Iraq and Syria. CBS News projects Donald Trump will be the winner of the New Hampshire Republican primary. It's the first time a Republican primary candidate,

not technically an incumbent, has won both Iowa and New Hampshire since 1976. Trump's projected win solidifies his place as the GOP frontrunner. He's projected to be awarded at least 12 delegates. As a consolation prize, Nikki Haley will get at least nine. In her speech last night, Haley said she is not dropping out of this race. Instead, she is vowing to fight on and she is sharpening her attacks on the former president. And speaking of attacks, former President Trump gave a victory speech that at times felt angry to some and included some threats against threats of investigations, veiled and not so veiled in many people's view, if Nikki Haley does not drop out of this race and soon.

availed in many people's view if Nikki Haley does not drop out of this race and soon. Last night, former President Donald Trump won New Hampshire's Republican primary in decisive fashion, earning 54.5% of the vote to Nikki Haley's 43.2%. President Joe Biden, despite not appearing on the New Hampshire ballot, won 53.4% of the Democratic vote via write-in, with 13,888 unprocessed write-in ballots outstanding, easily besting his two challengers, Representative Dean Phillips, the Democrat from Minnesota who got 19.6% of the vote, and Marianne Williamson, the self-help author, who earned 4.6% of the vote. New Hampshire, known as a moderate state with an independent voting streak, was widely seen as the best chance for the challengers to gain some momentum in the race.

The state's primaries are open to independent voters, and Republicans and Democrats there are generally more moderate than in other key states. Joe Biden's victory over second-place finisher Dean Phillips was more or less expected, despite the president's name not appearing on the ballot and Phillips targeting the state for months. On the Republican side, Haley invested heavily in New Hampshire, where the race was being closely watched for any signals that she could mount a serious challenge to Trump, with the Republican primary now down to just two candidates. However, despite Haley's

support from independents and from New Hampshire's popular Republican governor, Chris Sununu, Trump won nearly three in four Republican voters and beat her across almost every demographic, including in every age group and among both men and women by double-digit points, according to exit polls. Haley did well among independents, who broke for her by a 67-31% margin, according to the AP VoteCast survey of primary voters. The race was called for Trump just minutes after polls closed. His victory was historic, marking the first time a Republican presidential candidate who was not an incumbent won the first two contests in a primary. Trump was joined on stage by former rivals Vivek Ramaswamy and Senator Tim Scott, the Republican from South Carolina, during his

victory speech and immediately began pressuring Haley to drop out. If she doesn't drop out, we have to waste money instead of spending it on Biden, which is our focus, Trump said to Fox News. Haley had never lost an election before the Iowa caucus, and she has vowed to stay in the race at least through South Carolina, the conservative state where she served as governor. Still, her odds there look even worse than in New Hampshire, where she has trailed Trump in the polls by more than 30 points for months. Today, we're going to analyze some results from the left and the right about the primaries and then my take. We'll be right back after this quick commercial break.

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against cynicism. You can meet your future potential with a little help from Profit Plus, and you can check out the newsletter with a link in today's episode description. First up, we'll start with what the left is saying. The left is discouraged by Republican voters' clear preference for Trump at every step of the Republican primary. Some say it's time to accept that Nikki Haley has no chance step of the Republican primary. Some say it's time to accept that Nikki Haley has no chance of making the race competitive. Others focus on Biden's performance, saying it was a strong outcome that bodes well for the president going forward.

Bloomberg's editorial board said Republican voters have chosen the road of anger and spite an endless division. Republicans must now realize that nominating Trump will not advance their interests. In addition to the disorder, ineptitude, and ambient corruption that characterized his first term, Trump was the weakest president since the New Deal. Outmaneuvered at every turn, he caved repeatedly to Democrats, ran up huge deficits, and accomplished nearly no policy goals. He couldn't even build his border wall, the notional promise of his campaign, the board said. A second term promises more of the same, but worse. Unburdened of Trump, Republicans would

have a good chance of winning the White House and making gains in Congress. They could pursue the pro-family anti-crime agenda many of them say they want while reforming the party to meet the needs of a new demographic and economic era. And they could do so without endangering the foundations of the republic, the board added. It's not happening. Time has run out. Trump is their man. In MSNBC, Paul Waldman described Trump's victory as depressingly clarifying. By overwhelming margins, this isn't just Donald Trump's party. It's a party of Trumpists, in which his support has only broadened and deepened as his rhetoric and his intentions become uglier and more mentally addled, Waldman said. Republican voters had the

opportunity to rally behind any one of the many extremely conservative presidential candidates. To all of them, the party's base said, we want Trump. Nikki Haley couldn't have asked for a better state to make her stand in than New Hampshire, Waldman wrote, but the state's moderate conservative base and open primaries were still not enough. Haley may have done better than many expected, but according to exit polls, her performance was built on the independent voters who won't be able to vote in most other GOP contests. Three-quarters of Republicans cast their votes for Trump. That landslide confirms the central contradiction at the heart of Haley's candidacy and those of all the candidates who have already dropped out.

Most Republicans just weren't going to be moved from their support for the former president. In New York Magazine, Ed Kilgore wrote about Biden's double victory in New Hampshire. Despite lots of irresponsible talk about Joe Biden potentially getting ambushed in an officially unauthorized New Hampshire primary where he wasn't on the ballot, the president brushed aside two political opponents and won a primary for the first time in this influential state, Kilgore said. Some predicted he would underperform and get knocked out of his re-election race like Lyndon Johnson in 1968. Instead, Biden called into question whether Dean Phillips and Marianne Williamson have any reason to continue their unsuccessful candidacies. In fact, Biden won a double victory in New Hampshire. Aside from winning his own

primary, his general election strategy is being vindicated by the continuing success of his preferred general election opponent, Donald Trump, Kilgore added. Further, the South Carolina primary should be a real love-in as Joe Biden campaigns among the voters who absolutely saved his bacon in 2020 and put him on the path to the presidency. The contrast with the glowering Trump campaign and the Republicans who are on a white-knuckle ride with him should be richly rewarding for the 46th president. That is it for what the left is saying, which brings us to what the right is saying. The right believes Trump is leading the most formidable political movement in modern U.S.

history. Some say a Trump-Biden rematch remains likely despite notable performances from challengers on both sides. Others suggest Haley should stay in the race after exceeding expectations in New Hampshire. In the New York Post, Michael Goodwin wrote that Teflon Don shows his durability. Trump appears to be unstoppable as he aims to make history by winning the GOP nomination for the third time, Goodwin said. Incredibly, polls in the next 10 states on the GOP calendar all show him with a lead of at least 30 points, including Haley's home state of South Carolina. The upshot is that rather than searching for the whys of the other candidates'

defeats, we should instead come to grips with why Trump could prove to be unbeatable in the primaries and why he has a real chance of winning the White House a second time. The short answer is that we are witnessing a durable political movement unlike any seen in modern America. The part of the electorate that hates Trump really, really hates him, yet it is matched in size and intensity by those who see him as the last best hope. Without that enormous well of support, he would have been crushed by the coordinated onslaught against him. And yet that same onslaught, much of it the result of unfair media coverage and partisan actions that shattered political norms, also played a major role in his revival. In Fox News, Liz Peek argued Haley and Phillips outperformed in New Hampshire, but it's still a Trump-first Biden horse race. Early Fox News voter analysis showed that about 77% of the people going to vote in the GOP primary

were registered Republicans, while 10% were Democrats who changed their registration last fall to allow them to participate in the open primary, and 13% were independents. If those numbers hold, that was a disappointment for Haley. Independents constitute 40% of all registered voters in New Hampshire, and she needed those folks to turn out in much bigger numbers to pose any threat to Trump, Peek said. If Haley cannot win her home state, or comes in a distant second, calls for her to exit and to bring the party together in fighting against another four years of Biden's presidency will be deafening, Peek added. Meanwhile, Biden had to rely on a write-in campaign to avoid embarrassment at the hands of Representative Dean

Phillips. Phillips campaigned vigorously in New Hampshire, telling voters the truth, that Biden is too old to serve another four years. Phillips was a total unknown just a few weeks ago. By the time of the primary, he was polling at around 10%. He ended up winning over 20% of the vote. In the Telegraph, Henry Olson said Nikki Haley cannot give up yet. We brought in Henry to talk a little bit about the column that he wrote and why he thinks Haley should stay in the race. Henry Olson, welcome to the show. Thanks for being here. Well, thank you for having me. So you've got a little bit of a, I think, a unique take here on this New Hampshire

primary result last night. There's a lot of talk on the right among conservative columnists and pundits that, you know, Trump has this in the bag. It's time for Haley to kind of exit stage left and let Trump start focusing on president Biden. That wasn't your position though. Can you give our listeners maybe a little two-minute rundown of this column you just published in The Telegraph and why you think Haley should stick around? Yeah, look, Haley is right that the race is just beginning. The fundamental thing is that in most of the states that will vote, registered independents can vote. What's clear is that registered independents, most of whom are Republican-leaning, don't want Donald Trump. They want somebody else.

And these are the people who will decide the election. These are the people who would vote for one type of Republican, but last time voted for Joe Biden. They're not Democrats. They're swing voters. And Haley attracts them. So first of all, she's got a real chance in most of these states that allow them to vote. Second, she's showing growth among conservatives, particularly the key group of conservatives, the people who say they're somewhat conservative. Most columnists are part of the party base, and they gravitate towards the people who say they're very conservative. Trump's got those people locked up. What he doesn't have locked up is the just Republican, the just conservative.

And Haley is growing there. She only lost those voters by about 20 points, and she's gained significantly from Iowa, where she lost them by a larger margin. The fact is she's got a month in South Carolina to make the case to independents who can vote in South Carolina and somewhat conservatives that she's a better choice than Donald Trump. And she should make that case and she should go forward and let the votes fly, let them fall where they may. And if she loses badly in South Carolina, or if she loses by anything less than a couple of points, then she should drop out. But to say now, before she's really had a chance to put the case to the voters and make them think,

who do you want, Trump or me? What do you want? That's what the conservative who loved Trump don't want anyone to do. And Haley should ignore the advice and put her case to the voters. Okay, so she's got, you know, some strength among independent voters. I think that's pretty clear. You make a good case, I think, that, you know, we have some other states left on the map that are gonna look decent for her, at least in the results. But the big thing that's happening next is she's going to go to South Carolina, which is a very conservative state. It's the state where she was a former governor. And we don't really have a poll at any point from the last month or two showing her within 30 points of Trump there. showing her within 30 points of Trump there. How do you think she survives that? I mean, she goes to her home state.

She loses to Trump by a really wide margin. Do you envision a world where she stays in the race between South Carolina and Super Tuesday? I mean, can she hang on through something like that? Based on Charles Yu's award-winning book, Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu, a background character trapped in a police procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight.

Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. The flu remains a serious disease. the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. She has to either win or do extremely well in South Carolina. But the thing to remember about South Carolina is it has no party registration. So anyone can vote as long as they did not vote in the February 3rd Democratic primary. What we know in New Hampshire is that very few people voted in that primary because it's not a contest. So what she's going to try and do is basically recreate New Hampshire in South Carolina. She's going to encourage people who have never voted before in a Republican primary or who rarely vote in Republican primaries to turn out because they don't want Trump and Biden. So that means, I suspect, the polls, which will be modeling for traditional turnout, underestimate her strength.

But eventually what she's going to have to do is convince the somewhat conservative voter that they prefer her to Trump. And that's what her first ads in South Carolina released today try and do. They call her a conservative. They focus on themes that will resonate with the somewhat conservative without engaging in the angry rhetoric that seems to be necessary to get to the MAGA crowd. And again, she's got a month. They don't vote till February 24th. She's got a month to make her case. Let's see where things stand in two or three weeks. One of the things you said in this Telegraph piece that I thought was pretty interesting was that at some point here in this next month, probably, Haley's going to have to talk about the 2020 election and the kind

of elephant in the room, which is Trump's continued insistence that the election was stolen from him. And this we know from exit polling is a great indicator of whether somebody supports Trump or not. People who generally believe that the election was stolen or rigged or there's something nefarious going on tend to be the most ardent Trump supporters. So how does Haley approach this issue without totally losing all those people? I mean, you're her campaign advisor. What's the strategy kind of jumping into that deep end? Yeah, I've been thinking about that all morning. And it's the most delicate but most important question your campaign has to face. So what I've been thinking about that all morning, actually. And it's the most delicate but most important question your campaign has to face. So what I've got right now is that what she should do is be making the case, as she has, that she does better against Biden, independent voters

like her. But then in her ads and in her statement, she should say, and that's why Trump lost in 2020. in her statement, she should say, and that's why Trump lost in 2020. These people will vote for a good Republican who doesn't divide people, but they won't vote for Trump. And what that should do, knowing Trump, is spark incredible anger and fury and I was robbed, blah, blah, blah. And then he engages her on that issue in a field that allows her to parry rather than thrust, which is to say simply, no, Donald, I wish you were otherwise. I voted for you. I served in your administration. But you lost. You alienated these people with your chaos. And again, get back to her theme that Trump brings chaos. And I suspect she won't have to litigate that issue in the sense of the details. But, you know, if she has to, she can just go down and say, look, you lost New Hampshire, which elected Republican governors, has elected Republican senators. You know, I was in New Hampshire. The voters told me that they were alienated by your chaos. And guess what? There's no Supreme Court that allowed ballots.

They don't have mail-in balloting in New Hampshire. It was all done in person. It was a state that was conducted according to your rules, and you lost, Donald, like you did nationwide. And just see where it goes from there. The fact is, if she refuses to engage on that, it's not going to resonate with the somewhat conservative voter who doesn't love Trump but supports Trump. She needs to present an argument like that, and I think that angle gives her a better shot than going down the rabbit hole of either detail or simply ignoring the fact, as most Republicans have, and thereby giving Trump his biggest calling card. All right, before you get out of here, I'm going to give you a quick little 20-second rundown of a take of mine that I'm sort of forming for our podcast and newsletter today, which is that I think last night actually in a kind of

low key way may have been a pretty good night for President Biden in that I think some warning signs popped up about Trump's weaknesses in a general election, which is we saw this kind of 62, 63% of independent voters break for Haley. We saw on exit polls a good chunk of Republicans saying that they wouldn't cast a ballot for Trump if he's found guilty on some of the charges he's facing. And we saw Biden basically win easily in a primary where his name wasn't even on the ballot and his campaign seems to have run a pretty scrappy, well-organized write-in campaign. What do you think of that? Do you think there's anything in here that signals

maybe Trump's strength with Republicans, but weakness in a potential general election? Yes, but I wouldn't overstate the case either. The fact is, this election is going to be decided by the 20 percent of voters who don't like either candidate. And we know that when presented with the choice they didn't want four years ago, they backed Biden. But what we also know is that those voters were likely to like Biden four years ago, and now they don't. I think we can draw too much from a primary electorate. You know, what we've got is a record high turnout in Republican side. 330,000 people are likely to have cast ballots there when all the votes are cast. But there'll be 800,000 votes in New Hampshire when all is said and done in the general election. 90-something to 100,000 votes

were cast on the Democratic side. Half of the general election voters in New Hampshire did not vote yesterday. And so I think to draw conclusions about the general election from a primary electorate is not incorrect. You know, half the voters cast their votes. It doesn't mean nothing, but it doesn't mean everything either because half of the voters in the general electorate weren't included in the sample. Henry Olson, I appreciate you coming on and giving us some of your time this morning. From the car in Washington, D.C., nonetheless, Henry is a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center. He's also a columnist. You can find his latest piece on The Telegraph this morning,

headline, Mickey Haley Can't Give Up Yet. It's Time to Take the Fight to Trump. Henry, thanks for your time. I appreciate it. Hey, thanks for having me on, Isaac. All right, that is it for the left and the right are saying, which brings us to my take. So the obvious point here is obvious. The race is over. Haley has said she will stay in it, at least for a few more weeks, and I respect her for that. Last night, I was interviewed by Bill O'Reilly, who brought me on his show to talk about the New Hampshire primary, and he made the case that Haley would

drop out after she lost. I said I believe she's going to hang on through South Carolina, and I think she should. Her odds are near zero, of course, but Republican voters deserve at least a few elections, surely more than two, to be sure before it's all over. As Henry Olsen argued above, under what the right is saying, a week is a long time in politics. A month is an eternity. I don't see any point in Haley bowing out to Trump now, especially if she wants to brand herself as a fighter and perhaps the number two candidate in the party behind him, a valuable position to hold heading into the wide open 2028 primary. All the focus has rightly been on the fact that this was a good night for Trump, one that affirms, even in more

moderate New Hampshire, that he is the pick for Republicans. And that's true. Among Republican voters, despite all the baggage the pundits obsess over, Trump's support is robust, as he looks poised as ever to cruise to the nomination. But there is another story here very few people are discussing that I also think is worth pointing out. We actually got the first warning signs for the Trump campaign. For starters, it's no small thing that Haley cleaned up with independent voters in the state. That isn't going to matter much on the crusade to win the Republican primary, but it will mean a lot when the general election rolls around. This was the widest gap ever between Republicans and independent voters in New Hampshire, a giant 71-point gulf. We know from focus groups and exit polls that there are a lot of Republican

and independent voters in states like New Hampshire who simply refuse to cast a ballot for Trump, and the returns from Tuesday night reaffirm that. Haley's loss was decisive, yes, but she still outperformed most polls and she did it on the backs of independent voters. Those same voters are going to be key to Biden winning states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada, which together will decide the 2024 election. Consider this, too. Only about half of the people who voted in New Hampshire said they'd cast a ballot for Trump in the general election if he's convicted of a crime. That's according to a CNN exit poll. That's different from the polling we got in Iowa, but consistent with other polls,

including one from Siena College that found almost a quarter of Trump voters don't want him on the ticket if he's convicted of a crime. In 2022, the one person who got the midterms right was Simon Rosenberg, a Democratic strategist who repeatedly said no red wave was coming and rightly predicted the outcome of most of the races. We interviewed Rosenberg shortly after the midterms and dubbed him the man who was right about the 2022 midterms. Rosenberg is a partisan, he is a Democratic activist and organizer, and his views should be taken within that context. But in his newsletter this week, I think he made a strong case that Trump continues to be a huge risk for Republicans as a general election candidate, and that coverage

of his dominance in the primary belies his weakness in a general election. A few points Rosenberg made really stuck with me. Trump lost the 2020 race by nearly 7 million votes. Since then, Trump has accumulated 91 criminal indictments. Republicans have underperformed in every election since 2020. A sizable number of Trump supporters say they won't vote for Trump if he's found guilty of a crime. A jury has already found him liable for sexual abuse. He's being charged with decades-long financial fraud. He's being charged with mishandling classified documents. Biden is beating Trump in recent polls from New Hampshire, Michigan, and Pennsylvania,

and he's polling ahead of his 2020 numbers in most swing states. And 43% of Haley's Iowa voters said they'd cast a ballot for Biden. Just 23% said they'd vote for Trump. On top of all of that, abortion continues to be a winning issue for Democrats. Whether you agree Trump should be facing charges or not, or whether you believe he is guilty of anything or not, is irrelevant to those sentiments. What's important is that Trump lost in 2020 before a lot of these charges came down, and Biden is going to hammer Trump with this stuff once the general election kicks up in earnest. That's a pretty good counterpunch for an incumbent defending

his record to be able to throw. In the primary, it seems clear the indictments helped Trump among Republican voters. There was a graph shared by Steve Kornacki just this week showing that Ron DeSantis was actually competitive with Trump until the end of March in 2023, which is exactly when news broke of the indictment from the Manhattan District Attorney. After that, Trump's lead widened and never really looked back. But in the general election, I think it's clear Trump's legal troubles are going to hurt him. And before I forget to mention it, Biden just easily won his primary without even being on the ballot, demonstrating his team's ability to organize a well-run write-in campaign. Don't mix up my message here. This is not me making the case for Biden.

He is a historically weak incumbent, and a majority of voters, including a majority of Democrats, think he is too old or too incompetent to run again. But for all the talk of Trump's dominance in the primary, there is very little talk about the fact that he remains a weak general election candidate. And without the independent voters and moderate Republicans he failed to win in New Hampshire, he is, once again, facing an uphill battle in 2024. We'll be right back after this quick break. All right, that is it for my take, which brings us to your questions answered. This one's from an anonymous reader in Plainfield, Illinois, who said, why doesn't Nikki Haley emphasize that she is the best to defeat Biden?

So actually, I think she is emphasizing that, and she has been for a long time. As polling began in New Hampshire last night, Haley tweeted exactly that, quote, here's a hard truth for Donald Trump. 70% of Americans do not want a rematch between two 80-year-olds distracted by drama and investigations. That's when nearly every poll shows me trouncing Biden while he barely squeaks by. Numbers don't lie, end quote. The tragedy for Haley is that she probably would be a better candidate against Biden in the general election, but she's proving that she's not a great candidate against Trump in the primary. Finding a way to win both races at once is a dilemma a lot

of presidential candidates have to solve, and Haley's message to conservatives that she's their best shot to beat Biden seems cogent, but it isn't working. The real question is why that message is failing. Republican voters either don't believe it, don't like her, or just don't care. Or maybe they just aren't listening. After the race was called New Hampshire, You Lost was trending on Twitter, a message to Haley from conservatives that could be interpreted as any of the above. Some Republicans honestly believe Trump has a better shot against Biden than Haley does. Many in the center-right of the party view her as the candidate of choice for the left, labeling her as a rhino captured by the corporate political class. Lastly, the fact that I even got the question of why Haley isn't emphasizing a thing she is very much emphasizing shows that her signal isn't getting boosted well enough to reach

its intended audience. For what it's worth, I happen to think that the combination of her support from moderates, the way her candidacy would dwindle turnout on the left without the anti-Trump vote, and the fact so many in the Republican base would probably get in line behind her against Biden all give her a better shot to beat him than Trump has. But it's worth repeating. Republicans either don't believe it, don't like her, or just don't care. All right, next up is our under the radar section. This is a special one. By doing away with advanced learning programs in elementary and middle schools, Seattle public schools are making a huge mistake, a Tangle reader contended

in a recent reader essay. On Sunday, we published the most engaged reader-submitted essay yet in our Sunday edition's short history. It came from an anonymous reader in Seattle who wrote about what is happening in the public school system where her husband teaches and her kids attend. The story is about how and why, under calls for more equity, Seattle schools are limiting learning opportunities for advanced students. The piece generated dozens of emails and lots of feedback, but it hadn't been sent to our full mailing list. You can read it with a link in today's episode description and a quick heads up, this is a members-only post, so you'll see a paywall about halfway through. All right, before we jump to our numbers section, a quick

heads up that our most engaged YouTube video yet has garnered close to 200 comments and driven nearly a thousand new subscribers to our channel. In case you missed it, it is on the Israel-Palestine conflict and some of the misinformation spreading, including a bunch of basically fake stories that I've seen across social media. We did a whole video breaking that misinformation down. Highly recommend checking it out. There's a link to it in today's episode description, and you can find us on YouTube under the name Tangle News. All right, next up is our numbers section. Donald Trump's polling lead over Nikki Haley in New Hampshire on the day of the primary election was 17.2%, according to FiveThirtyEight. With more than 95% of the votes counted, Trump's lead over Haley in New Hampshire is just 11.1%. The total number of Republican delegates for Trump after his wins

in Iowa and New Hampshire is now 32. The total number of Republican delegates for Haley is 17. The percentage of Republican primary voters in New Hampshire who voted for Trump who said they would favor a federal law banning most or all abortions nationwide, was 79%, according to exit polling by the Washington Post. The percentage of all Republican primary voters in New Hampshire who say Joe Biden did not legitimately win the presidency in 2020 is 51%. The percentage of Trump voters in the New Hampshire primary who consider themselves conservatives was 70%, according to NBC News exit polling. The percentage of Haley voters in the New Hampshire Republican primary who considered themselves moderates was 73%. All right, and last but not least, our Have a Nice Day story.

nice day story. Every year, 600,000 people die of malaria in Africa, according to the World Health Organization, and children under five make up at least 80% of those deaths. But as bad as those figures are, there's good reason to believe that that's the worst they will ever be. In West Africa, the world's first routine vaccine program against malaria started in Cameroon on Monday, with a baby girl named Daniela receiving the first shot in the capital of Yande. And there will be many more like her. Cameroon is offering the RTSS vaccine free of charge to all infants up to the age of six months old. As part of the program, patients will be given a total of four doses. The program is being rolled out after successful pilot campaigns in Kenya and Ghana, where the vaccine caused a 13% drop in deaths of children of eligible age, said UNICEF.

The BBC has the story, and there's a link to it in today's episode description. All right, that is it for today's podcast. As always, if you want to support our work, please go to retangled.com and consider becoming a member. And don't forget, we're doing a little experimenting here. We're trying this thing where we bring on a guest or two every day or whenever we can to discuss their writing on the podcast. And we're curious what you guys think about it. If you have feedback, love it, hate it, like it, not sure, shoot us an email, isaac, I-S-A-A-C, at readtangle.com. We'll be back here at the same time tomorrow. Have a good one. Peace.

Our podcast is written by me, Isaac Saul, and edited and engineered by John Wall. The script is edited by our managing editor, Ari Weitzman, Will Kabak, Bailey Saul, and Sean Brady. The logo for our podcast was designed by Magdalena Bokova, who is also our social media manager. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet75. And if you're looking for more from Tangle, please go to readtangle.com and check out our website. We'll be right back. Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown

is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. The flu remains a serious disease. Last season, over 102,000 influenza cases have been reported across Canada, which is nearly double the historic average of 52,000 cases. What can you do this flu season? Talk to your pharmacist or doctor about getting a flu shot. Consider FluCellVax Quad and help protect yourself from the flu. It's the first cell-based flu vaccine authorized in Canada for ages 6 months and older, and it may be available for free in your province. Side effects and allergic reactions can occur, and 100% protection is not guaranteed.

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