Tangle - Trump chooses J.D. Vance as his running mate.
Episode Date: July 16, 2024J.D. Vance. On Monday, former President Donald Trump announced freshman Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH) as his running mate for the 2024 election. Before his election to the Senate, Vance was best known as the... author of “Hillbilly Elegy,” which describes his experience growing up in a poverty-stricken home in Ohio. Vance, 39, is the first millennial nominated to either party's major ticket. If elected, he would become one of the youngest and least experienced vice presidents in U.S. history, with less than two years spent as an elected official.You can read today's podcast here, our “Under the Radar” story here and today’s “Have a nice day” story here.Imagine this:There are over 100,000 people on this mailing list. If every person got one friend to sign up for Tangle, we could double our readership overnight. We have made it incredibly easy. All you have to do is click the button below and you'll get a pre-drafted email pitch — then you just type in a few friends or family member's email addresses and click send. Give it a shot!You can catch our trailer for the Tangle Live event at City Winery NYC. Full video coming soon!Check out Episode 4 of our podcast series, The Undecideds.Please give us a 5-star rating and leave a comment!Today’s clickables: Correction (0:37), Quick hits (1:25), Today’s story (3:08) Right’s take (5:46), Left’s take (9:38), Isaac’s take (13:22), Listener Question (19:49), Under the Radar (22:52), Numbers (23:29), Have a nice day (24:47)You can subscribe to Tangle by clicking here or drop something in our tip jar by clicking here. Take the survey: What do you think of Trump’s choice of J.D. Vance as his running mate? Let us know!Our podcast is written by Isaac Saul and edited and engineered by Jon Lall. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet 75. Our newsletter is edited by Managing Editor Ari Weitzman, Will Kaback, Bailey Saul, Sean Brady, and produced in conjunction with Tangle’s social media manager Magdalena Bokowa, who also created our logo. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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From executive producer Isaac Saul, this is Tangle.
Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening, and welcome to the Tango Podcast,
a place we get views from across the political spectrum, some independent thinking, and a little bit of my take. I'm your host, Isaac Solon. Today, we're going to be talking about J.D. Vance,
Donald Trump's new vice presidential nominee.
Before we jump into that newsletter, I actually have a quick correction.
In our quick hit section yesterday, we said that President Biden will conduct a live interview
with NBC's Lester Holt at 9 p.m. Eastern on Monday night.
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All right, with that out of the way, I'm going to hand it over to John, and I'll be back for my take.
Thanks, Isaac, and welcome, everybody. Here are your quick hits for today.
First up, much remains unknown about the 20-year-old shooter who attempted to assassinate Donald Trump.
up, much remains unknown about the 20-year-old shooter who attempted to assassinate Donald Trump.
The FBI has accessed his phone and interviewed neighbors, but found little insight into his motive. Number two, Elon Musk, the world's richest man, has endorsed Donald Trump and pledged to
start donating $45 million a month to a Trump-supporting super PAC, fundamentally upending
the cash battle in the 2024 election. Number three, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated the central bank won't wait until inflation
is below 2% to cut interest rates.
Number four, in a blow to President Biden, the Teamsters union is considering backing
no candidate in the 2024 presidential race.
And number five, Special Counsel Jack Smith will appeal the dismissal of Trump's classified documents case.
Ohio Senator J.D. Vance stepping into the brightest spotlight of his young political career,
appearing side by side with Donald
Trump overnight at the Republican National Convention. After just two years in the Senate,
he's now Mr. Trump's running mate.
Donald Trump's VP pick, Ohio Senator J.D. Vance, rose to fame with his memoir, Hillbilly
Elegy, and was once a fierce critic of the former president. Now he's his running mate. In choosing Vance, Trump looked to the future. Vance is nearly four decades younger than Trump.
He'd be one of the youngest vice presidents in U.S. history,
the first millennial on a presidential ticket.
On Monday, former President Donald Trump announced freshman Senator J.D. Vance,
the Republican from Ohio, as his running mate for the 2024 election. Before his election to the Senate, Vance was best known as the author of
Hillbilly Elegy, which describes his experience growing up in a poverty-stricken home in Ohio.
Vance, 39, is the first millennial nominated to either party's major ticket. If elected,
he would become one of the youngest and least experienced vice presidents in U.S. history,
with less than two years spent as an elected official.
Trump announced the decision in a post on Truth Social, writing that Vance will be strongly focused on the people he fought so brilliantly for, the American workers and farmers in Pennsylvania,
Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Minnesota, and far beyond.
Vance served in the U.S. Marine Corps during the Iraq War.
After his service, he attended The Ohio State University and Yale Law School,
then worked for several law and venture capital firms. In 2022, he won the Republican Ohio Senate
primary, with Trump's endorsement, to replace outgoing Senator Rob Portman, and then defeated
Democratic Representative Tim Ryan in the general election.
Vance was once an outspoken critic of Trump, calling him America's Hitler in a private message and publicly characterizing Trump as cultural heroine, among other disparaging remarks,
during his first presidential campaign in 2016.
However, since Trump's 2020 campaign, Vance has been a vocal ally,
backing his claims of election fraud in 2020 and bringing
many technology investors closer to his campaign. Vance and six others were announced as candidates
on Trump's vice presidential shortlist three weeks ago. Some speculated Trump might tap a running
mate to appeal to moderates, independents, and women, but he chose someone with views largely
aligned with his own populist politics.
Vance is expected to have major appeal with working-class voters in the Midwestern battleground states, which will be a key to winning the race. In 2016, Trump tapped Mike Pence to serve as his
vice president, largely as an appeal to evangelical and religious voters. Pence was deeply loyal to
Trump until he rejected his calls to stop Congress from certifying Biden's election win on January 6th, a decision Vance disagreed with.
Pence has not endorsed Trump's re-election bid.
Today, we're going to break down some of the views on Vance as Trump's vice president pick from the right and the left, and then Isaac's take.
We'll be right back after this quick commercial break.
From Searchlight Pictures comes A Real Pain, one of the most moving and funny films of the year.
Written and directed by Oscar-nominated Jesse Eisenberg and starring Eisenberg and Emmy Award winner Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain is a comedy about mismatched cousins who reunite for
a tour through Poland to honor their beloved grandmother. The adventure takes a turn when
the pair's old tensions resurface against the backdrop of their family history. A Real Pain
was one of the buzziest titles at Sundance Film Festival this year, garnering rave reviews and
acclaim from both critics and audiences alike. See A Real Pain only in theaters November 15th.
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All right, first up, let's start with what the right is saying.
The right mostly supports the pick, calling Vance a strong complement to Trump.
Some say the selection represents the end of the pre-Trump Republican Party.
Others say Vance is unlikely to have an outsized impact on the race,
but could make some meaningful contributions.
In The American Spectator, Mike Ortiz wrote,
Why J.D. Vance is Trump's ideal running mate.
It is not just the mainstream media that is afraid of Vance.
It is also the establishment Republican donor class, who have voiced serious concern over what his promotion to vice presidency would mean, ideologically, for the future of the
party, Ortiz said.
In terms of policy, he is consistently sided with the so-called popul the future of the party, Ortiz said. In terms of policy, he is consistently
sided with the so-called populist faction of the Republican Party, supporting working-class
Americans and upholding an America-first agenda abroad. For instance, Vance has not only been a
staunch advocate for steelworkers in the U.S., but he has also been a leading voice against
further U.S. funding for the war in Ukraine. Vance seems to understand the concerns of
working-class
Americans, not merely as the result of theoretical pondering, but most especially because he himself
is a son of rural Appalachia and is therefore familiar with the struggles of those whom Trump
had rightfully called the forgotten men and women of our country, Ortiz wrote. Vance is certainly
the best alternative for the Trump ticket. It is time for an America-first, common-good conservatism
to revitalize the institutions and social fabric of our once-great nation.
In National Review, Philip Klein said Vance represents
another nail in the coffin of Reagan Republicanism.
During his short political career,
Vance has been a leader of a movement aimed at wrestling away
the Republican Party from the
orthodoxy of free markets and muscular foreign policy. Instead, Vance's vision is for a Republican
Party that embraces large government programs, is more open to taxing corporations, that shows more
foreign policy restraint, and that wields the power of the state in the culture wars, Klein wrote.
If there's any straight line between Vance's economic views from the time
when he hated Trump to his time as a Trump booster, it's a belief that the party had to move away from
limited government ideology. On foreign policy, Vance has not only shown an unease at getting
involved in foreign conflicts, but he has been reluctant to offer moral support for defending
American values abroad, even rhetorically. Vance has portrayed his opposition to the Ukraine war
as a pragmatic matter of math, but his rhetoric has gone beyond merely arguing that Americans
shouldn't spend money on aid to a proud lack of interest, Klein said. Those who want to bury
Reaganite conservatism hope that because Trump is limited to one term, Vance would now be set up to
be his natural heir in 2028. In the Washington Examiner, Tiana Lodosker suggested,
Vance probably doesn't improve Trump election odds much, but he won't hurt them either.
Vance doesn't expand the former president's electoral map much, and the more limited
government-minded wing of the party has plenty of salient policy disagreements with the Yale Law
grad-cum-venture capitalist. But Vance probably will not harm Trump's electoral prospects,
and his raw intelligence and charisma render him a populist
with a much broader appeal than some of his fellow travelers, Doska wrote.
Vice presidential picks often do little to influence voter preferences,
and even if they do sway opinions, they tend to be net negative additions.
We'll see whether Trump and Vance focus on themes simply to enthuse the MAGA base as the Republican National Convention commences, and it's fully possible that President
Joe Biden's precipitous drop in the polling means that Trump doesn't feel the need to appeal to the
center. But contrary to some of the panic from my own laissez-faire wing of the conservative movement,
I remain hopeful that Vance can prove a persuasive communicator and, even better,
a purveyor of empathy all too devoid of politics these days.
All right, that's it for what the right is saying, which brings us to what the left is saying.
The left is alarmed by the pick, suggesting Vance will ensure that the MAGA movement persists after Trump. Some say Vance's appeal is solely to the
right flank of the Republican Party. Others say voters' negative view of Vance will hurt Trump's
election chances. In Slate, Alexander Salmon wrote about what J.D. Vance brings to the ticket.
Vance is perhaps the foremost political representative of the new right,
the strain of
populist conservatism that has appeared to gain some purchase with young Republicans in recent
years, Salmon said. Vance is also closer to a new brand of Silicon Valley conservatism that is more
recently ascendant in the GOP, best embodied by new arc-right zealots like venture capitalist and
podcaster David Sachs. Although the frenzy around a vice presidential pick is usually
pretty politically inconsequential, in this case, it might be meaningful. It would not be
inconceivable to see Vance in the driver's seat of this presidency if the two of them beat out
Biden-Harris in November, Salmon wrote. Vance, who shares Trump's positions on mass deportation,
tariffs, and foreign policy, sends a very strong message about where the Republican Party is headed
under Trump's reconsolidated control. In Bloomberg, Patricia Lopez said,
Vance is red meat for Trump's MAGA base. It's a shrewd and calculated pick, a nod to Trump's base.
More than any other contenders, Vance's selection shows that Trump wants to lock down the MAGA
faithful and ensure they turn out,
even if that means losing more moderate and independent voters.
Vance's rhetoric is at times harsher and hotter than Trump's,
and his positions are more extreme, Lopez wrote.
His selection also sends a clear message to the country that Trump is building a movement
that will reshape the nation, not just for one term, but for the future.
Trump, who spoke briefly of unity after a bullet grazed his ear at the nation, not just for one term, but for the future. Trump, who spoke briefly of unity after
a bullet grazed his ear at the rally, appears to have already veered from that path, choosing a
running mate who seldom reaches out to the other side unless it's to deliver a throat punch, Lopez
said. On cultural issues, Vance has indicated his willingness to consider a federal 15-week
abortion ban, but ever conscious of Trump's shifting positions on the issue,
has downplayed it. Vance has shown he is nothing if not flexible and doubtless will remain closely
attuned to Trump's shifting whims as he searches for what's most politically expedient.
In the Columbus Dispatch, Christopher Devine argued Vance will hurt Trump's re-election chances.
Vance will have a limited appeal to voters outside the Republican
Party base. This is partly because Vance often conducts himself with hysterical partisanship,
for example, by claiming that the Biden campaign was directly to blame for Saturday's assassination
attempt against Trump before any facts about the shooter were even known, Devine wrote.
Another factor is the increasing unpopularity of vice presidential candidates in recent years.
In this polarized political climate, running mates tend to be wildly popular among co-partisans,
despised by their opponents and received coolly by independents.
We should expect the same for Vance.
Running mates have mostly indirect effects by influencing voters' perceptions of the
presidential candidate.
This was evident in 2008.
Voters who doubted Sarah Palin's readiness to become president also came to doubt John McCain's judgment and,
in turn, were less likely to support him, Devine said. Voters may conclude that Trump, in a second
term, will not be focused on enacting his legislative agenda or advancing the national
interests but pursuing retribution against his opponents.
This may appeal to Trump, but it is unlikely to appeal to voters.
All right, let's head over to Isaac for his take.
All right, that is it for what the left and the right are saying, which brings us to my take.
So I'm going to break up my response into three parts. Vance's resume, the politics of choosing him, and then my own personal read on the men. Vance's resume is decidedly a mixed bag. On the
one hand, he has just about everything you can ask for in a vice presidential
candidate. He's written a best-selling book that lays out his life story and worldview,
he's served in the military, he's served in the Senate, he appeals to swing state voters,
and he is a Yale-educated lawyer and entrepreneur who's well-connected in the tech world.
On the other hand, if elected, he would arguably become the most inexperienced vice president ever.
and if elected, he would arguably become the most inexperienced vice president ever.
His only experience with elected office is his current two-year Senate term.
If Trump wins, he'll be second in line to the presidency with an incredibly limited experience set as an executive of any kind.
As I've written before, qualifications matter for a position this important.
And while Vance has a diverse set of experiences, he also has no real expertise.
Past running mates have typically been additive in a way that fills the nominee's weak spots or blind spots.
J.D. Vance is more a Trump acolyte than a Trump co-pilot.
On the politics of the decision, tapping J.D. Vance sends a message about where Trump's campaign and candidacy is headed,
and it's certainly not a big tent direction. With Vance, Trump is not trying to appeal to women,
evangelical voters, or moderates whom some pundits thought he should focus on with his pick.
This is a double down on Trump's brand of populism and on targeting the blue wall in the Midwest.
It's also Trump leaning in to the next generation of conservatism,
one of populist ideals that have quite a bit of overlap with some progressive ideals.
Indeed, Vance sends shockwaves through corporate America who now have a Republican ticket that is
uncommonly oppositional. Vance, remember, has teamed up with Democrats like Senator Elizabeth
Warren on bills that would crack down on Wall Street. At the RNC convention last night, Trump brought out Teamsters President Sean O'Brien
to savage big businesses, a spectacle you don't typically see at Republican gatherings.
Vance will also do a blow to the more traditional establishment Republicans on foreign policy.
Though he mostly follows the party line on Israel,
Vance is broadly an isolationist who has been very critical of
American intervention abroad and has opposed any additional funding for Ukraine in its fight
against Russia. To put it more plainly, Trump could have picked someone in the mold of Mike Pence,
a running mate to appeal to voters he was most worried about losing, but instead he picked
someone who has mimicked him, his policies, and his approach to politics. That may
or may not be the right decision, but it clearly is a strategic move to lean into energizing Trump's
base rather than appeal to a wider group of voters. Perhaps the biggest divergence between
Trump and Vance is also Vance's biggest weakness. Vance has been much more conservative than Trump
on abortion, saying he does not believe in exceptions for rape or incest, and endorsed a 15-week federal abortion ban. This will, predictably, become a major attack
line from Democrats, one that I expect will be pretty effective. As for my personal read on Vance,
let's just say my feelings have changed over the years. I was one of the many Americans who read
his book. Vance and I did not have the same upbringing, but I saw in
his stories familiar characters and themes that I recognized in my hometown in Pennsylvania.
I appreciated how he communicated the experience of the white working poor in a way that liberals
could better understand and empathize with. And in 2016, I was tremendously excited to see a
blossoming conservative star who could speak to the weaknesses and blind spots of
both major political parties with experience and candor. But Vance, how do we say it, he evolved.
Not just on Trump, which is what gets most of the attention, but on how he discusses and approaches
his fellow Americans. Vance has explained this evolution, which I believe is partially genuine
and partially about political expediency, but the man who came out on the other side was more venomous, less nuanced, and a lot
more angry. He seems to have wholly embraced grievance politics, a constant state of victimhood,
and an ideology that is more centered on demonizing the other side than advocating your own. By far,
my biggest gripe with him is that he has embraced claims the 2020 election was fraudulent,
a position there is still scant evidence for, and one I'm not sure he even believes.
It's a talking point that is obviously for an audience of one.
I don't know that I can disrespect someone more than J.D. Vance, Senator Mitt Romney once said.
This wasn't just about his political views changing seemingly overnight,
but instead his about-face on how he approached politics in the first place.
Yesterday, I wrote about how we as individuals need to step away
from the giant pool of darkness we seem primed to leap into.
Meanwhile, fans have spent the last few days blaming Joe Biden
for the assassination attempt on Trump
and calling other members of Congress scumbags
without doing any real self-reflection on his own new style of politics that contributes to our divisions. Of course, there are parts of him I
still very much admire. This is a man who enlisted in the Marine Corps after 9-11 out of love for his
country and came home from the experience ardently opposed to our wars abroad. He's broken with his
party for some genuinely good policies, like clawing back pay
from executives of failed banks, has shown himself willing to work across the aisle, and has been on
the right side of a lot of votes in the Senate. I believe he is both patriotic and open-minded,
and his upbringing in a hometown riddled with addiction and left behind by economic advancements
will inform him in a way that other politicians simply don't get. Certainly, the J.D. Vance of 2017 or 2018 would get a much more ringing endorsement from me.
But as much as I want to give people room to grow and change their minds,
I also can't shake the feeling that I just don't know what he truly believes anymore.
His time in public office has been too short and his flip-flops too fast for me to get an
accurate read on who he is or trust what he says.
That makes me deeply uneasy at a time when sussing out the future direction of our country is so critically important.
We'll be right back after this quick break.
We'll be right back after this quick break.
From Searchlight Pictures comes A Real Pain, one of the most moving and funny films of the year.
Written and directed by Oscar-nominated Jesse Eisenberg and starring Eisenberg and Emmy Award winner Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain is a comedy about mismatched cousins who reunite for a tour
through Poland to honor their beloved grandmother. The adventure takes a turn when the pair's old tensions resurface against the backdrop of their family history.
A Real Pain was one of the buzziest titles at Sundance Film Festival this year,
garnering rave reviews and acclaim from both critics and audiences alike.
See A Real Pain only in theaters November 15th.
Are you sure you parked over here?
Do you see it anywhere?
I think it's back this way. Come on. Hey, you're
going the wrong way. Feeling distracted? You're not alone. Whether renting, considering buying a
home or renewing a mortgage, many Canadians are finding it hard to focus with housing costs on
their minds. For free tools and resources to help you manage your home finances and clear your head,
visit Canada.ca slash itPaysToKnow.
A message from the Government of Canada.
Based on Charles Yu's award-winning book,
Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu,
a background character trapped in a police procedural
who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown.
When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime,
Willis begins to unravel a criminal web,
his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight.
Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+.
All right, that is it for my take, which brings us to your questions answered.
This one's from Dak in Providence, Rhode Island. Dak said, if a major controversial politician,
such as Trump, Biden, or RFK Jr. requested an interview with you, would you accept it? Would
you have any non-negotiable conditions for the interview? How would you handle the enviable
backlash if you agree? Not only would I accept the interview, but we've
tried to get interviews with all of the aforementioned people. We've done interviews
with well-known and controversial people before, such as former Fox News anchor Bill O'Reilly,
so I already know what the criticism would be if I did land an interview with someone like
President Biden. You weren't hard enough on him, so I guess you're just being soft so you can get to talk to more people and chase clout. I thought you were supposed to be
nonpartisan. How can you claim that when you're giving so much airtime to the sitting president
during an election campaign? And if I landed an interview with Trump or RFK Jr., I'm certain I'd
get those criticisms along with the complaint that I'm platforming a dangerous person. But my
response would be pretty similar to what I've told people in the past. For those who criticize me for not being hard enough in an interview,
that's just my interviewing philosophy. I'm not the kind of interviewer like Mehdi Hassan or Ben
Shapiro who draws his interviewee into a debate and tries to show holes in their worldview.
I model myself more after people like Louis Theroux or Joe Rogan. I want to make the person I'm talking to comfortable enough to open up and speak honestly.
I trust you, the reader, to make the appropriate judgments.
People who call us out for unbalanced selection of interviews,
just like our topic selection, we are balanced over time, not each time.
For every deep dive on the media being wrong about Trump and Russia,
you'll get an exploration into
false election denialism claims. For every explainer about climate change, you'll get a
probing into the corruption at the FBI. For every interview with a person like Trump, you'll get one
with someone like Biden. And as for platforming, to be honest, I've never taken this criticism
seriously, and it's also one sent from a very small but vocal number of people. Quote-unquote dangerous ideas don't just become appealing because we're talking about them.
And remember, I don't interview to attack or promote a worldview, so I'm not co-signing an
idea by discussing it. Again, I think our readers and listeners are perfectly capable of smelling
BS on their own, and we always fact-check interviews and often annotate them to add
important context.
As for my non-negotiables, that's pretty simple. I get to choose the questions I ask and what I say.
I don't pre-screen questions, and if there are requests to keep something off the table,
I inform my readers or listeners. And that's pretty much it. If President Biden came to me
and said, I want an interview, but I only have five minutes and it's just going to be audio,
I'd agree right there. But if he offered me an hour and a menu of acceptable questions,
I would say no. All right, that is it for Your Questions Answered. I'm going to send it back
to John for the rest of the pod. You guys have a good one, and we'll be back here same time tomorrow.
Thanks, Isaac. Here's your Under the Radar story for today, folks.
The Democratic National Committee is quietly advancing plans that would technically nominate
President Biden weeks before the party's convention. The plan is to train state party
chairs on how to securely conduct electronic voting and then open up virtual delegate voting
before the DNC convention. If that happens, Biden could lock in a majority of his nearly 4,000 delegates' votes
in the next two weeks, narrowing the window for critics to push him out.
Axios has this story, and there's a link in today's episode description.
All right, next up is our numbers section.
The percentage of registered voters who said they wanted Donald Trump to select J.D.
Vance as his vice presidential running mate is 3%, according to a June 2024 Harvard-Harris
poll.
The percentage of Republican voters who wanted Trump to select Vance is 5%.
The percentage of registered voters who said they would be more likely to vote for Trump
if he were to select Vance as his running mate is 12%. The percentage of registered voters who said they would be less likely to vote
for Trump if he were to select Vance as his running mate is 20%. The drop in support for
Trump among veterans between 2016 and 2020 is 7%, according to New York Times exit polling.
The percentage of registered voters who said they had a favorable view of Vance is 15%.
That's according to a May 2024 survey
from Morning Consult and Bloomberg.
The percentage of registered voters
who said they had never heard of Vance is 48%.
The percentage of millennials
with a favorable view of Vance is 14%.
The percentage of voters with a household income
of less than $50,000 with a favorable
view of Vance is 12%. And the percentage of voters with a household income of over $100,000
with a favorable view of Vance is 17%. All right, and last but not least, our Have a Nice Day story.
In 2021, then-17-year-old Mason Brandstratter broke a vertebra in his back
while skiing. As a result, he was paralyzed from the waist down. After extensive hospitalization
and physical rehabilitation, Brandstratter began using a wheelchair to compete in a variety of
adaptive sports, including basketball, tennis, and most recently, a marathon. Brant Stratter shares his journey on Instagram,
where he has over 265,000 followers, inspiring others.
The Uplift has this story, and there's a link in today's episode description.
All right, everybody, that is it for today's episode.
As always, if you'd like to support our work,
please head over to readtangle.com and sign up for a membership.
We'll be right back here tomorrow.
For Isaac and the rest of the crew, this is John Law signing off.
Have a great day, y'all.
Peace.
Our podcast is written by me, Isaac Saul, and edited and engineered by John Law.
The script is edited by our managing editor, Ari Weitzman, Will Kabak, Bailey Saul, and Sean Brady.
The logo for our podcast was designed by Magdalena Bacoba, who is also our social media manager.
Music for the podcast was produced by Diet75.
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