Tangle - Trump polling ahead of Biden in swing states.

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Starting point is 00:01:00 From executive producer Isaac Saul, this is Tangle. Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening, and welcome to the Tangle podcast, a place we get views from across the political spectrum, some independent thinking, and a little bit of my take. I'm your host, Isaac Solon, and on today's episode, we are going to be talking about the latest 2024 polls showing former President Donald Trump leading President Joe Biden in five of the six swing states that are expected to determine the election. We're going to talk about what the polls show, share some reactions from the left and the right to those polls, and then as always, I'll give you my take. Before we jump in though, we are going to kick things off with some quick

Starting point is 00:01:54 hits. First up, voters across the United States will be casting ballots in gubernatorial and statehouse races today. Elections are also being held on ballot measures related to abortion and marijuana, as well as an election on a crucial Pennsylvania Supreme Court seat. Some of the most closely watched elections are taking place in Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Kentucky. Number two, Israel says it has killed a Hamas commander and captured a Hamas compound. It has now encircled Gaza City and continues to push Gazan civilians toward the south. Number three, former President Trump testified for nearly four hours in his civil fraud trial yesterday, frequently sparring with the presiding judge and arguing asset valuations

Starting point is 00:02:42 are mostly subjective. Number four, President Biden announced more than $16 billion in new funding for 25 Amtrak passenger rail projects between Boston and Washington, D.C. Number five, David Weiss, the federal prosecutor who is leading the investigation into Hunter Biden, will testify before a House congressional committee today. Today marks exactly one year from the 2024 presidential election and what could end up being a rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Our new CBS News poll shows Biden continues to trail Donald Trump in that possible head to head. He is now down three points. As mentioned, the presidential race less than a year to go now. And a New York Times Siena College poll shows Trump leading in five of the six most important battleground states that could be decisive.

Starting point is 00:03:45 The margins are between four and 10 percent. More than half of the people in this poll say they trust Donald Trump to do a better job on the economy. Slightly more than half say President Biden's policies have actually hurt them personally. And then there's this other issue, that we've talked about a lot, and that is age. 71 percent of people mentioned President Biden's age as a concern. But if you look at the numbers, only about 39 percent of people and that is age. 71% of people mentioned President Biden's age as a concern. But if you look at the numbers, only about 39% of people say that about Mr. Trump, who, of course, is only a few years younger than President Biden. This continues to be an issue for the Biden camp. One year out from the 2024 presidential election, former President Donald Trump is polling ahead of

Starting point is 00:04:22 President Joe Biden in five of the six swing states expected to determine the election outcome. The numbers come from the latest New York Times and Siena College poll released over the weekend, which showed Trump with a lead in Nevada, Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, all states that Biden won in 2020. Biden led in just Wisconsin. The poll of 3,662 registered voters sent ripples through the political world. President Biden was trailing Trump by 10 points in Nevada, 6 points in Georgia, 5 in Arizona and Michigan, 4 in Pennsylvania, and was leading by 2 points in Wisconsin. The margin of error on the poll is 2 points when all the polls are combined,

Starting point is 00:05:01 and 4.8 points for individual states. 39% of those voters felt the same about the 77-year-old Trump, which was roughly the same number who said Biden was too old in 2020 when he was also at 77. In a new development, Biden was also polling much weaker than generic and alternative Democrats, including Vice President Kamala Harris. While Trump leads Biden by about 5 points across the states, a generic unnamed Democrat leads Trump eight points, amounting to a 13-point swing. The poll continues a trend of Biden losing support among younger Hispanic and Black voters in swing states. His non-white support dropped 33 points compared to 2022, and Trump's support among registered Black voters rose to 22 points in the swing states. Biden's

Starting point is 00:05:45 most hardened support is now among old and white voters, the same base Trump had that helped him get elected in 2016. All told, if the 2024 election were held today, the poll indicates Trump would win a dominant victory with over 300 electoral votes. Today, we're going to take a look at some reactions to the poll from the right and the left, and then my take. First up, we'll start with what the left is saying. The left is concerned by Biden's poll numbers, especially with young voters. Some say his best strategy is to start campaigning hard on the threat that Trump poses to American democracy. Others think there's plenty of time for Biden and his campaign to reverse course. In the New York Times, John Della Volpe,

Starting point is 00:06:40 a pollster for Biden's 2020 presidential campaign, said Joe Biden is in trouble. pollster for Biden's 2020 presidential campaign, said Joe Biden is in trouble. Young Americans voted not just against Mr. Trump in 2020. Millions believed in Mr. Biden's vision and shared his values. If and when Mr. Trump becomes the Republican nominee, these voters will be reminded on social media and elsewhere of the many, many things they dislike about the former president and also of their indispensable role in helping Mr. Biden usher in an era of progress that brought the first Black woman to the Supreme Court and the largest investment in climate action in U.S. history, De La Volpe wrote. But unless Gen Zers and millennials believe that Mr. Biden has their backs, I fear enough young people won't back him. Many may choose to take their politics offline instead or support an alternative who will

Starting point is 00:07:25 do nothing more than open the door for Mr. Trump's return, he wrote. Now is not the time for a play it safe Rose Garden strategy. Many young Americans have been politically engaged by the Israel-Palestine conflict and are seeking an opportunity to feel good about their president, their country, and their future again. In New York Magazine, Ed Kilgore suggested Biden needs to go very negative on Trump or risk losing to him in 2024. It's possible that conditions in the country and the world will improve enough over the next year that a second Biden term will seem a safer choice than more MAGA. That's more or less how Biden won in 2020. But it's not a great bet, and the stakes for getting 2024 wrong will be terrible and long-lasting, Kilgore said.

Starting point is 00:08:08 What needs to happen is that the horror of left-of-center and some right-of-center elites toward a second Trump presidency be communicated regularly and loudly to voters who should but do not share that horror. Biden need not violate the Constitution nor even cut corners to win re-election, but he does need to abandon the bland reassurance that has been his political signature as president and begin making the 2024 election a choice voters cannot avoid, Kilgore added. The sentiment does not need to be expressed early and often to those whose unhappiness with this or that aspect of the Biden presidency might lead them to help usher in an authoritarian regime

Starting point is 00:08:44 they would like a whole lot less. In CNN, Dean Obadiah argued that Democrats shouldn't despair over concerning new polls about Biden. The New York Times Santa poll numbers are alarming and a bit distressing, but they should not cause panic, Obadiah wrote. Why not panic? There are a few reasons. First, President Barack Obama faced high disapproval ratings the year before the 2012 election, although not as high as Biden's, and a number of early national polls suggested a close race between Obama and Mitt Romney, who would go on to be the GOP's presidential nominee. While Obama led in some surveys at the time, a CNN ORC poll in November 2011 found Romney with a four-point edge. We all get that Obama and Biden

Starting point is 00:09:25 are not the same candidates, but what is instructive is that Obama won in large part by way of a superior ground game in terms of ensuring that voters who supported him actually did cast the ballot. Biden, who was Obama's vice president, is obviously well aware of this. And given Biden's ability so far to outrace Trump in terms of campaign donations, his campaign is more resources to invest robustly in this key part of the campaign. Alright, that is it for the leftist thing, which brings us to what the right is saying. The right thinks that the latest poll numbers are in line with the sentiment of the country and represent a broad rejection of democratic policies. Some say Biden is headed for a disastrous defeat and his advisors are at fault. Others suggest there's little the president can do to win back voters who have become disillusioned

Starting point is 00:10:18 with his administration. The New York Post editorial board wrote, it's not just Joe Biden. Voters are rejecting Democratic policies that hurt them. Much of the anti-Biden sentiment stems from policies he and his fellow Dems have pushed to please woke elites, policies that have spelled disaster for middle and lower class Americans, including minorities. Indeed, three times as many voters in those states, 67% versus 22%,

Starting point is 00:10:43 think the nation is headed in the wrong direction, including heavy majorities of non-whites, the board said. No surprise, Dems have put woke issues like climate change and special interest handouts, like having the taxpayers pay off student loans, over fighting inflation and making life affordable for average folks. These aren't just Biden's policies. They're backed by the entire Democratic Party. Indeed, Biden's major spending bills, which launched the historic bump in inflation soon after he took office, passed without any Republican votes, the board said. Dems like to pretend they champion the poor and needy, but their policies stick it to just those people. Voters may not like

Starting point is 00:11:20 Trump, but they'll oppose any Democrat whose woke, elitist policies hang them out to dry. In National Review, Noah Rothman said Biden has gotten terrible advice from his inner circle. Biden didn't govern in quite the Rooseveltian or Johnsonite way his admirers may have hoped. Worse, he's governed like Joe Biden, Rothman said. He managed to convince his fellow Democrats to pass only some of the spending that some intrepid analysts warned, correctly, would have an inflationary effect. But Biden's allies wanted the president to go big, and big, for good or ill, is exactly what they got. Biden is staring down the barrel of a historic humiliation, the prospect of a loss to a one-term president who left office in disgrace and may be forced to campaign for the White House again with a felony conviction to his name. By all accounts, the president has been privy to a lot of bad advice. If the idea that Trump's unsuitability will save his White House from a legacy-staining

Starting point is 00:12:15 rebuke has any purchase with Biden, we must conclude that Biden is still in the market for more of the same. In hot air, David Strom suggested Biden is likely toast. The number of Biden supporters is getting smaller by the day, and many Democrats are no longer Biden supporters, although the majority will wind up voting for him if forced to. But elections are won on margins, not the absolute number of votes, Strom said. So, Joe Biden may get nearly as many votes next year as last, with Democrats holding their nose. But will that be enough? Or will a significant number of Biden voters stay home or vote for somebody else? I think the answer is no, and so do an awful lot of Democratic establishment types

Starting point is 00:12:55 who are quietly and not-so-quietly panicking right now, Strom said. Panic is the right word to describe what these numbers strike into the hearts of Democrat hacks like just about every mainstream media journalist. The main reason Biden is flailing in the polls is something we all instinctively understand. Things got better under Trump and much worse under Biden. It is really that simple. People don't like Trump any more than they did, but he did a much better job, and as much as people dislike him, their lives got better. All right, that is it for the left and the right are saying, which brings us to my take. First, let's start with the important qualifier that we are a year out from the election, and a lot of this is subject to change.

Starting point is 00:13:44 This poll doesn't come close to guaranteeing a Biden loss or from the election, and a lot of this is subject to change. This poll doesn't come close to guaranteeing a Biden loss or a Trump win, and it is important to remember that polls like this, a year out from an election, often look like false signals or aberrations once the election has already happened. That being said, while there are some genuinely surprising things about these polls, nobody should be shocked that Trump is polling strongly against Biden. about these polls, nobody should be shocked that Trump is polling strongly against Biden. Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. The flu remains a serious disease. Last season, over 102,000 influenza cases have been reported across Canada, which is nearly double the historic average of 52,000 cases.

Starting point is 00:14:40 What can you do this flu season? Talk to your pharmacist or doctor about getting a flu shot. Consider FluCellVax Quad and help protect yourself from the flu. It's the first cell-based flu vaccine authorized in Canada for ages six months and older, and it may be available for free in your province. Side effects and allergic reactions can occur, and 100% protection is not guaranteed. Learn more at FluCellVax.ca. I've been writing about Biden's age issues since shortly after he was elected. There was a time when questioning his fitness for office was so taboo,

Starting point is 00:15:16 people would leave tangle if we referenced it at all, even to defend him. But now, it is a commonly held view among the public and even a majority of his supporters that he should not run for re-election. The issue is not about Biden's age as a raw number, but about his public appearance. The president just looks increasingly frail, and his senior moments are very uncomfortable to watch. Politics is often about feel, and for many normal Americans who pay attention to politics with a few minutes of focus a day, Biden feels too old. This is why people like Marianne Williamson and Representative Dean Phillips, the Democrat from Minnesota, who are challenging Biden, say that Democrats should have

Starting point is 00:15:50 a primary. If Biden goes into 2024 as a weak, untested candidate, the party will be relying on support for him in 2020 that might not exist in the same way anymore. This is dangerous, and it's why Democratic challengers are insisting their party should look elsewhere for a Trump challenger. Which brings me to what was genuinely shocking about the poll. Just how badly Biden is polling compared to other Democrats. Vice President Kamala Harris, who was long considered a drag on Biden's electoral hopes, is now polling ahead of him. A generic Democrat is eight points ahead of Trump, a sign that even in bad polls like this for Biden, it is still more about Biden's weakness than Trump's strength. What Biden had going for him in 2020 was that he offered a return to normalcy. And in many ways, however you feel about his age

Starting point is 00:16:35 or policies, much of his presidency has been normal. He hasn't done anything too radical, and I don't think the country is spinning out of control with some headless administration. But again, politics is about feel, and there is enough about global instability to give the feel of things spinning out of control. In 2020, things felt like they were boiling over as activists hit the streets in the wake of George Floyd's murder. Public riots were all over the news. Images of Kyle Rittenhouse shooting someone were on every channel. Political violence seemed almost tangibly omnipresent. COVID-19 was still hitting the U.S. hard. We had lockdowns and protests, and then January 6th and this overwhelming feeling that it was all out of control. That environment was hugely beneficial to a Trump challenger. Enter Joe Biden.

Starting point is 00:17:20 But now it's three years later, and look around. First, we had two years of inflation news. Now there is war in the air, a battle in Ukraine and instability in Europe, the conflict in Israel, disturbing images out of Gaza, and a debate about U.S. support for Israel's military. Headlines about the growing specter of China invading Taiwan and the Iran-Russia alignment. On top of that, a migrant crisis at the border and some major U.S. cities. And, once again, protests abound, this time pro-Israel and pro-Palestine protests on college campuses and in urban areas. In this environment, any incumbent president would struggle. But the feeling Americans get when they look at Biden appears to be the biggest obstacle because so many people are citing his age as a factor in how

Starting point is 00:18:05 they view him. Like I said, this poll is more about Biden weakness than Trump's strength. But there's also this reality. Trump is not in the spotlight. Think about all those stories I mentioned that have overwhelmed the Trump stories that dominated 2016 to 2022. Now add to them the debt ceiling, Hunter Biden, UFOs, Roe v. Wade, and so on. Part of what hurt Trump has always been his public comments and the way he handles himself on social media. But the truth is, with Trump banned from Twitter, tied up in legal troubles, and largely out of the mainstream media's purview, a lot of swing voters aren't feeling the daily repercussions of his musings and absurdities. For his supporters, that is what

Starting point is 00:18:43 they always wanted, for him to be less controversial and just let his record guide the conversation. Somehow, despite the unprecedented legal troubles he faces and the various controversies still swirling around his candidacy, he has organically faded into the background of a lot of people's interests. It doesn't surprise me at all that opposition to him has softened a little bit in that context. So, what should we take from this poll? That despite Biden getting some of what he promised done, he still has a lot of work to do to energize his base about a second Biden term. That he once again needs to win the enthusiasm of young voters, Black voters, and Hispanic voters. That Trump is still a competitive presidential candidate. That maybe Biden, as the 2024 Democratic candidate, should not have been

Starting point is 00:19:25 a foregone conclusion. And that if you are a Democrat, there is still a lot of work to do to get him re-elected. All right, that is it for my take, which brings us to your questions answered. This one's from Vic in Severna Park, Maryland. Vic said, when we give money to Ukraine and others for war support, are we actually lending it to them? If so, what are the repayment terms and does it ever get repaid? This is a great question, Vic. The answer is yes, some of the aid to Ukraine is structured as an interest-bearing payment-deferred loan. Yes, we can expect that money back from Ukraine. No, that is not going to be any time in the near future. So, exactly how much should be

Starting point is 00:20:11 sent as a loan? The answer, unfortunately, isn't very straightforward. According to the Germany-based Kiel Institute, which is a great resource for tracking funds sent to Ukraine and showing how support from the U.S. compares to other Ukrainian allies, the United States aid packages are much less transparent than their peers. That means there's a lot to detangle with how they work. To try and clarify the answer, let's break down the aid the U.S. has given already. Not including the $24 billion aid package currently in Congress, the United States has allocated $113.4 billion in emergency funding for the war in Ukraine. You can track that in time through authorized allocations and in category through responsible departments. In time, $13.6 billion came from the Ukraine Supplemental Appropriations Act of March 2022,

Starting point is 00:20:59 $40.1 billion from the additional Ukraine Supplemental Appropriations Act of May 2022, 12.4 billion from Ukraine Supplemental Appropriations Act of September 2022, and 47.3 billion from the Additional Ukraine Supplemental Appropriations Act of December 2022. By department, $61.8 billion of that aid is allocated through the Department of Defense, while $36.5 billion of that is allocated through USAID, which is overseen by the State Department, $9.9 billion more broadly through the State Department, $3.4 billion through the Health and Human Services, and $1.5 billion through other departments. There is a good visualization for those funds, courtesy of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. We've shared an image of that in today's newsletter. Some of those funds are allocated through a loan structure authorized by the Ukraine Democracy Defense Lend-Lease Act,

Starting point is 00:21:50 which passed the House 417 to 10 and was signed by President Biden in May of 2022. Similar to a World War II-era bill, the 2022 Lend-Lease Act allows the Department of Defense to define military equipment sent to Ukraine as a loan or a lease that needs to be repaid with interest. The act applies to only some of the $61.8 billion military portion of the total aid approved by Congress. $6.6 billion of that budget was approved before the Lend-Lease Act was passed and the authorization expired a month ago, which means that the portion of the aid sent to Ukraine that the U.S. can expect back is probably no greater than $55.2 billion, barring future similar lend-lease approvals. So, that's a lot of numbers. How much is that loaned portion?

Starting point is 00:22:36 It's unclear. Since the way military funds are allocated is hard to track, we can't tell how much of that $55 billion Ukraine will be on the hook to pay back, but I wouldn't expect that it's the full amount. When can the U.S. expect that money back? That is also unclear, as payments are deferred indefinitely. For what it's worth, the U.K. is still paying back its lend-lease credit from World War II. Next up is our under the Radar section. Sensitive and personal data for thousands of active duty and veteran U.S. military members can be purchased for as little as one cent, according to new research done by Duke University. The researchers warn that the data can be easily obtained by malicious actors and used to target

Starting point is 00:23:22 former and current military personnel and their families with a myriad of schemes, including blackmail. The data includes physical and email addresses, health and financial information, and even ages of some people's children. Axios has the story, and there's a link to it in today's episode description. All right, next up is our numbers section. The percentage of likely voters who said they would be financially better off if Trump wins the presidency in 2024 was 45%, according to a new CBS YouGov poll. The percentage of likely voters who said they would be better financially off if Biden wins re-election was 18%. The percentage of likely voters who say Trump's policies as president would increase the chances of the U.S. entering a war was 39 percent, while the percentage who said that about Biden was

Starting point is 00:24:10 49 percent. The percentage of people who said things are going badly in America in January 2023 was 65 percent. The percentage of people who said things are going badly in America today is 73 percent. The percentage of U.S. adults aged 18 to 29 who said they follow the news all or most of the time in March of 2017 was 31%. The percentage of U.S. adults aged 18 to 29 who said they follow the news all or most of the time in August 2022 was just 19%. And last but not least, our have a nice day story. For cancer patients, the last thing they want to think about after enduring extensive hospital care, chemotherapy, or surgery is cleaning their homes. That's where the nonprofit Cleaning for a Reason has them covered, providing free home cleanings to cancer patients so they can

Starting point is 00:25:01 focus on rest and recovery instead of household chores. Since its founding in 2006, Cleaning for a Reason has partnered with 1,300 cleaning companies, served over 50,000 patients, and donated about $15 million in services, no strings attached. Truly Free is committed to making a difference in the lives of cancer patients, said Steven Ezel, the CEO of Truly Free. We firmly believe that everyone, particularly those battling cancer and facing weakened immune systems due to treatment, deserves a safe and non-toxic home environment. Good Good Good has the story and there's a link to it in today's episode description. All right, everybody, that is it for today's podcast. As always, if you want to support our work, please go to readtangle.com and consider becoming a subscriber. Also, don't forget to check out our YouTube channel. You can find us on Tangle News, where we do some interviews with people in the political world.

Starting point is 00:25:52 We share unique videos, content that we don't necessarily cover in the podcast or the newsletter. And you should go like and subscribe our stuff there as well. We'll be right back here same time tomorrow. Have a good one. Peace. Nabokova, who's also our social media manager. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet75. For more on Tangle, please go to readtangle.com and check out our website. We'll see you next time. a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. The flu remains a serious disease. Last season, over 102,000 influenza cases have been reported

Starting point is 00:27:16 across Canada, which is nearly double the historic average of 52,000 cases. What can you do this flu season? Talk to your pharmacist or doctor about getting a flu shot. Consider FluCellVax Quad and help protect yourself from the flu. It's the first cell-based flu vaccine authorized in Canada for ages six months and older, and it may be available for free in your province. Side effects and allergic reactions can occur, and 100% protection is not guaranteed. Learn more at flucellvax.ca.

Tangle - Trump polling ahead of Biden in swing states.

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