Tangle - Ukraine gets its tanks.

Episode Date: January 26, 2023

On Wednesday, after weeks of deliberation, the German government said it would send 14 of its modern Leopard 2 main battle tanks to Ukraine, and would also allow other countries to send German-made tanks to Ukraine. Hours later, the White House formally announced it was sending 31 M1 Abrams tanks, signifying a coordinated effort with European nations. Plus, a question about the sex crime allegations against Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) and an update on the southern border.You can read today's podcast here, today’s “Under the Radar” story here, and today’s “Have a nice day” story here.Today’s clickables: Quick Hits (2:22 ), Today’s Story (4:11), Those in favor of sending tanks (7:03), Those against sending tanks (11:41), An opinion from Germany (15:14), Issac’s Take (17:02), Your Questions Answered (20:22), Under the Radar (22:59), Numbers (23:50), Have a Nice Day (24:35)You can subscribe to Tangle by clicking here or drop something in our tip jar by clicking here.Our podcast is written by Isaac Saul and edited by Zosha Warpeha. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet 75.Our newsletter is edited by Bailey Saul, Sean Brady, Ari Weitzman, and produced in conjunction with Tangle’s social media manager Magdalena Bokowa, who also created our logo.--- Send in a voice message: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/tanglenews/message Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Based on Charles Yu's award-winning book, Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu, a background character trapped in a police procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. The flu remains a serious disease. Last season, over 102,000 influenza cases have been reported across Canada, which is Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. yourself from the flu. It's the first cell-based flu vaccine authorized in Canada for ages six months and older, and it may be available for free in your province. Side effects and allergic reactions can occur, and 100% protection is not guaranteed. Learn more at flucellvax.ca.

From executive producer Isaac Saul, this is Tangle. Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening, and welcome to the Tangle podcast, the place we get views from across the political spectrum. Some independent thinking without all that hysterical nonsense you find everywhere else. I'm your host, Isaac Saul, and on today's episode, we are going to be talking about the tanks that are going off to Ukraine, tanks coming from the United States and from Germany. It has been something both countries have been debating for a little while, and yesterday they agreed finally that they will be sending them.

Before we jump into that main story, though, and before we get into our quick hits, I want to share a little bit of reader feedback we got from yesterday's edition. One reader from Monterey, California, wrote in and said that my take had actually changed their mind. I lean right, and as a parent, I have experienced the subtle and sometimes not so subtle ways that school staff attempt to quote-unquote disintermediate parents from the education upbringing of their children, and I don't like it. I've not studied the AP course curriculum, but I probably share a lot of the views of the critics in terms of the material.

But your view got to me. It is a choice that students, hopefully with the engagement or at least transparency with their parents, can take but are not required to take. Well done. Another reader wrote in and said, sorry, I think you got this one wrong. Rich Lowry is explicit in saying that encountering these voices could be fine if there was also exposure to their critics. It is the one-sidedness of the course that is the problem and that amounts to indoctrination. You really think these students are going to encounter Black defenders of capitalism in their regular history curricula, get an honest look at the thought of Thomas Sowell or Glenn Lowry,

or for that matter, Clarence Thomas? One reader wrote in yesterday after unsubscribing and said, I don't agree with your opinions and I don't want to waste my time reading them. 1440 is better. Thank you. All right, with that out of the way, we'll start off with our quick hits for today. First up, Meta, the parent company of Facebook, said it will reinstate former President Trump's Facebook and Instagram accounts after a two-year suspension. Number two, a judge in San Francisco ruled on Wednesday that footage of the home intruder's attack on Paul Pelosi, the husband of former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, could be publicly released over the objections of prosecutors. Number three, by a 420 to 1 vote, the House commended Iranian

demonstrators for their ongoing protests. Thomas Massey, the Republican from Kentucky, was the lone no vote. Number four, the U.S. economy grew at a 2.9% annualized rate in Q4, slightly above expectations from economists. Number five, Pope Francis criticized laws that criminalized homosexuality and called on the Catholic Church to be more welcoming to LGBTQ people. We're now overseas and Ukraine will get Western-made battle tanks for the first time, including American-made tanks. The U.S. is expected to announce as early as today that it will send around 30 M1 Abrams tanks. Today, I'm announcing that the United States will be sending 31 Abram tanks to Ukraine,

the equivalent of one Ukrainian battalion. So what impact will this have actually on the battlefield? Well, let's start with the tanks themselves. This is the German Leopard, very similar to the Abrams. Highly capable, certainly more capable than the Russian-made T-72s, which the Ukrainians have tended to rely on. But here's a key point. Also an offensive weapon.

With Ukrainians, as you heard from the defense minister, they're hoping that this will help them retake territory that Russia has occupied since the start of this invasion. On Wednesday, after weeks of deliberation, the German government said it would send 14 of its modern Leopard 2 main battle tanks to Ukraine and would also allow other countries to send German-made tanks to Ukraine as well. Hours later, the White House formally announced it was sending 31 M1 Abrams tanks, signifying a coordinated effort with European nations to send Western battle tanks to counter an expected spring offensive from Russia. The announcements come after weeks of

diplomatic efforts to get Germany's Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who was initially hesitant to send the tanks, on board with the plan. President Biden framed the deal as a way for Ukraine to defend itself and insisted that Russia should not view it as an offensive threat. It's unclear if the tanks will arrive in time for the next major wave of fighting. Some intelligence officials have suggested publicly they believe Russia is preparing for a spring offensive, and delivery of the Abrams tanks is expected to take several months. In Germany, the decision to send their tanks and help facilitate from other nations was made despite internal trepidation. Scholz and other top German officials have feared that the move could drag

Germany into the war or provoke a military response from Russia. Germany, unlike many other NATO allies, has no nuclear deterrent. Until now, Western allies have largely resisted requests from Ukraine to supply their own Western main tanks, leaving Ukraine to fight on the battlefield with more dated Soviet models. Shortly after the tank agreement was announced, Ukrainian's deputy foreign minister asked for warplanes. And now, dear allies, let's establish a powerful fighter jet coalition for Ukraine, he said on Twitter. Today, we're going to explore some arguments about the tank deliveries. Unlike our normal left and right format, though, today we're going to include some perspective supportive of the delivery, some critical of it, and a view from Germany. First off, we'll start with those who are in favor of sending the tanks to Ukraine.

Some criticize how long it took Germany and the U.S. to work out a deal and say fissures in the alliance are showing. Others call out Russia's brutal war tactics and argue that Ukraine needs all the support it can get to reclaim its territory. And some argue that Ukraine is defending all of Europe, so all of Europe should come to defend Ukraine. The Wall Street Journal editorial board criticized Biden for the delay and Olaf Scholz for doing the right thing only after he had exhausted all other possibilities. The belated decision overcomes what was a growing fissure in the NATO coalition aiding Ukraine, the board said. Mr. Scholz's move also calms a political uproar inside Germany, as leaders in every other mainstream party, most in the media, and some members of Mr.

Scholz's own Social Democrats SPD, demanded leopard shipments. Alas, this probably isn't the end of German dithering on aiding Ukraine. Despite promising a strategic turning point last February, Mr. Schultz resisted sending Cheetah anti-aircraft tanks last year, and he has hemmed and hawed over other military aid before ponying up. This often results from divisions in the SPD, where a vocal Russophile wing seems to worry that supporting Ukraine too vigorously could provoke Russian President Vladimir Putin into some new escalation or even a nuclear attack. Bluster from Mr. Putin's Russian allies about nuking Berlin after the Leopard decision is aimed directly at this crowd, the board said. The U.S. announcement is less

helpful than meets the headline because the tanks won't be driving onto C-17s from U.S. stocks. Instead, they'll be delivered through the military procurement process, which will take months or longer. The tale of the tanks is all typical of the Biden administration's Ukraine decisions over the last year. It resisted calls to supply lethal drones only to send them under pressure from Congress and media critics. The same with HIMAR rocket launchers, Patriot missile defense batteries, and now with tanks. The New York Times editorial board wrote of a brutal new phase in the war. Cruel, seemingly random Russian missile strikes at civilian targets have become a regular horror. On January 14th, a Russian missile struck an apartment building in Dnipro in central Ukraine. Among the at least 40 dead were small children, a pregnant woman, and a 15-year-old dancer, they

said. NATO allies have thrown more weapons into the mix, including the first heavy tank pledged to Ukraine, the Challenger 2 heavy tank from Britain. Germany, historically reluctant to have its tanks used against Russia, is under heavy pressure to allow its allies to export its first-rate Leopard tank to Ukraine. Ukraine and its backers hope that the Western arms will be decisive, giving Ukraine a better chance to blunt a Russian offensive and drive the Russians back. How far back is another question, the board said. The job at hand is to persuade Russia that a negotiated peace deal is the only option. This is why the coming fight is critical. But as Mr. Putin digs himself ever deeper into pursuing his delusions, it is also critical that the Russian people be aware of what is being done in their name and how it is destroying their own

future. The Financial Times editorial board wrote the case for sending the tanks. The approaching spring brings a potential turning point in the conflict in Ukraine. Kiev is impatient to utilize the advantage that Western-supplied arms have helped it to gain in the artillery war and punch through to retake Russian-occupied territories, the board said. For this, it needs Western-made advanced main battle tanks. Such weapons could also be vital in repelling a new offensive Moscow is preparing. Though Germany's Leopard 2 tanks are best suited to the task, Chancellor Olaf Scholz has been reluctant to supply them unless the U.S. sends tanks too. His belated concessions that Germany will send tanks, apparently in concert with the

U.S., is an important boost for Kiev's war effort. Further procrastination would have risked depriving Ukraine of a critical tool come the spring. Along with lighter infantry fighting vehicles that Germany, France, Britain, and the U.S. are providing, tanks are essential to mobile operations that involve infantry and artillery, known as combined arms maneuver, they wrote. Western models have better armor, weaponry, and control system than Russia's tanks. Permission from Berlin to allow countries with leopards to re-export them to Ukraine, expected to be granted shortly to Warsaw, could pave the way for a number of European countries to contribute. This is a welcome breakthrough. Ukraine is fighting a war to defend not just its own homeland, but wider European democracy and security.

All right, that is it for the folks who are defending sending the tanks and advocating for sending the tanks. This brings us to the people who are against sending the tanks. Those who oppose the delivery worry about the U.S. continuing to blow past its own red lines. Some call out the increasing likelihood that Putin responds with a nuclear attack or a direct attack on a NATO ally. Others argue that the U.S. and NATO have no coherent plan to end the war. In responsible statecraft, Branko Markotic warned of the mission creep and how the U.S. role in Ukraine is slowly escalating. When the United States involves itself militarily in a conflict, it often finds it hard to get itself out, let alone avoid deep entanglements that blow

well past lines that had drawn at the start of the intervention, he wrote. Little by little, NATO and the United States are creeping closer to the catastrophic scenario President Joe Biden said we must strive to prevent, direct conflict between the United States and Russia. Despite stressing at the start of the war that our forces are not and will not be engaged in the conflict, current and former intelligence officials told The Intercept back in October that there was much larger presence of both CIA and U.S. special operations personnel in Ukraine than there was when Russia invaded, conducting, quote, clandestine American operations in a country that are now far more extensive. Meanwhile, the United States and its

NATO allies have serially blown past their own self-imposed lines over arms transfers, he said. By escalating their support for Ukraine's military, the U.S. and NATO have created an incentive structure for Moscow to take a drastic, aggressive step to show the seriousness of its own red lines. This would be dangerous at the best of times, but particularly so when Russia officials are making clear they increasingly view the war as one against NATO as a whole, not merely Ukraine, while threatening nuclear response to the alliance's escalation in weapons deliveries. If the intention is to keep this war a limited regional one between two neighboring states with NATO playing only a peripheral, supportive role, all of these trend lines point in the exact opposite direction.

Based on Charles Yu's award-winning book, Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu, a background character trapped in a police procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. The flu remains a serious disease. Last season, over 102,000 influenza cases have been reported across Canada, which is nearly double the historic average of 52,000 cases. What can you do this flu season? Talk to your pharmacist or doctor about getting a flu shot.

Consider FluCellVax Quad and help protect yourself from the flu. It's the first cell-based flu vaccine authorized in Canada for ages 6 months and older, and it may be available for free in your province. Side effects and allergic reactions can occur, and 100% protection is not guaranteed. Learn more at flucellvax.ca. The Las Vegas Journal editorial board said tanks, for nothing in exchange, increase our Ukraine entanglement. This is a significant shift in posture. Western officials have long provided

Ukraine with defensive weapons, especially as the country showed incredible resolve in resisting the invasion. But they've been slower to provide offensive weapons like modern tanks, the board said. That reserve was an appropriate display of restraint given the situation. Russia's inability to conquer Ukraine shows it's no longer the dominant military power it once was. That's worth celebrating. But Russia still has nuclear weapons and is run by a de facto dictator. Sending tanks makes this look much more like a proxy war. How would Russia respond if Ukraine used those tanks for offensive operations inside Russia? Providing tanks increases the possibility of a regional or global conflict. These decisions aren't straightforward,

and this consideration is a real trade-off. Further complicating the situation is Ukrainian corruption, the board said. This week, nine senior Ukrainian officials lost their positions amid scandals. One official, who previously worked in President Volodymyr Zelensky's office, is being investigated for embezzling millions of dollars in humanitarian aid. Not great. What's needed most aren't tanks, but an exit strategy. That probably will require allowing Russia to save face, even as it loses militarily. Perhaps that's in the works, but Mr. Biden has provided precious little evidence of it so far. In Deutsche Welle, also known as DW, Christoph Hasselbach wrote about why he changed his mind and now supports sending tanks to Ukraine. I admit it, I've changed my mind. For a long time,

I could understand why the German Chancellor Olaf Scholz was reluctant to supply heavy weapons to Ukraine, and I can still understand the concern that supplying certain weapons could drag Germany or the whole of NATO into the war. After all, Russian politicians have threatened exactly that. President Vladimir Putin even toyed with the nuclear option. There are certainly reasons to be circumspect when dealing with Russia, Hasselbeck said. The problem is, Putin knows this. More than that, he has factored this fear into his calculations from the start. And while Ukrainians are desperately fighting for their lives and freedom, the Russian army is systematically destroying residential buildings

and civilian utility installations. War crimes are being committed more or less on our doorstep. Given the current military stalemate, energy shortages, and inflation, calls for a diplomatic solution are growing louder again in many of the countries that support Ukraine. Let's finally negotiate a peace, they say. Yet, one thing is clear. If Ukraine were to negotiate now, it would get a peace dictated by Russia, he said. According to everything military experts are saying, Western battle tanks would make a crucial difference. With these, instead of just holding its ground, Ukraine could push deeper into Russia-occupied Ukrainian territory. The West cannot allow itself to be coerced by Putin's threats. International law is on the side of Ukraine and its military supporters because the country is

merely defending itself against an aggressor. The last time we covered Ukraine in our main story was in mid-October. I wrote then that I continue to support supplying weapons to Ukraine and that we have a responsibility to prevent the genocide just as much as we have a responsibility to de-escalate and that everything about the war continues to be uglier than I imagined. Today, there are two growing voices in my head that feel to me as if they are on totally opposite sides of the spectrum. One voice is expressing an idea that I can't seem to shake, which is that we blew this from the beginning by hesitating for too long. Early on in the war, the US and NATO allies were One voice is expressing an idea that I can't seem to shake, which is that we blew this from the beginning by hesitating for too long. Early on in the war, the US and NATO allies were so fearful

of any spillover into Europe or Russian retaliation, especially nuclear, that we were paralyzed. We sent Ukraine weapons, yes, but we didn't really give a full throttle defense until Ukraine withstood the initial attack and proved itself a worthy opponent. Many experts expected Kiev to fall in a matter of weeks. What if, instead, we'd thrust ourselves into the war and simply helped Ukraine snuff the offensive out? What if we have sent aid and force, tanks, planes, deliveries of all kinds, full strategic support? Could all of this have been over in a matter of weeks in Ukraine's favor, knowing what we know now about Russia's military and Ukraine's ability to defend itself? I suppose you could call this devil on my shoulder the Top Gun voice. It's the voice of 2020

hindsight that insists we had a window to be a heroic ally and we missed it. We have now exchanged it for prolonged trench warfare. The other idea is most akin to Branko Markicic's concerns. That's the voice that is seeing mission creep in every direction. It's the one that can't ignore our repeated blow-bys of our own red lines and never-ending supply of weapons, the seemingly unchanged status of the war, the daily death toll, the stuffed pockets of the war machine, the fact that I legitimately cannot articulate what our strategy is besides keeping Kiev from falling, which of course is a very good goal. The voice cringes at the immediate and seamless transition from we're sending tanks to Ukraine needs warplanes, knowing that in a few

months they will probably get them. I suppose you could call this voice the cynic, and the cynic sees the same old story we've seen so many times before. We get involved in a conflict, the conflict involves a lot of non-American deaths, the conflict harms a global adversary, the conflict seems to be the one thing our politicians and elites can agree on, and every day we seem to be wading further and further into the fight. One day, before we know it, it'll be American soldiers dying too, and by then that will only be another justification to keep on fighting. I don't know how to reconcile these voices. I don't know which one I agree with or what mix of their ideas to settle on. I know that I want Ukraine's army to prevail and that

I want as few innocent Russians and Ukrainians to die as possible. I know that I don't begrudge the Russian people for what their leaders are doing, for the propaganda they are being force-fed. I know the images from the war are nauseating, and only one side is indiscriminately bombing civilian centers every day. I know one side wants freedom and independence, and one side wants to conquer. And I know this war is on Putin. All its blood is on his hands, so it is his war to end. But I just have no idea how we will get there. All right, that is it for my take, which brings us to your questions answered. This one is from an anonymous reader in Kansas City, Missouri, who said, Are there any updates on the Matt Gates sex trafficking accusations? It seemed at the time like this

was a pretty big deal and the things he was accused of were quite serious, but this story seems to have gone silent. Is it that the legal process is slow to move and accusations may turn into formal charges, or was it simply another politically based attack with no merit? Okay, so first of all, a quick explanation for the uninitiated. Representative Matt Gaetz, the Republican from Florida, was linked to a man named Joel Greenberg, a former tax collector in Florida, who is being investigated for sex crimes. Gaetz was named in a federal grand jury subpoena into Greenberg and his associates, and there was rampant speculation that he had paid for sex with an underage girl. What we know right now, first and foremost, is that Gates has not

been charged with any crime, and he is not expected to be. Nothing really points to his innocence more than that. This matters especially since the entire story is being investigated and other people are being charged or indicted. The bad news for Gates is that Greenberg, who he has documented links to, was sentenced to 11 years in prison after pleading guilty to federal crimes, including sex trafficking of a minor. Greenberg's other crimes included identity theft, stalking, wire fraud, and conspiracy to bribe a public official. In court, Greenberg's lawyer said his cooperation played a role in the investigations of 24 people, including eight for sex crimes, with four ultimately facing federal indictments.

Gates had also asked Trump for a pardon in the waning days of his presidency, specifically for the investigation into sex crimes, which many interpreted as an admission of guilt. But Gates has long denied the allegations. They were further complicated by an extortion plot where a Florida man approached Gates' father and told him he could resolve his son's legal troubles for $25 million and a presidential pardon for his own son. That man was recently sentenced to five years in prison. So Gates' friend pleaded guilty to sex crimes. Gates faced allegations of sex with an underage girl. News outlets reported on that and political opponents obviously used it to hammer Gates. Gates asked for a pardon for any future indictments. However, Gates has never been charged with a crime, and it does not

look like he will be, and he provided proof of someone trying to extort him over the charges that led to a conviction. Needless to say, it is not a simple story, but that is basically where things stand right now. All right, that is it for your questions answered, which brings us to our under the radar story today. U.S. authorities say they have seen a 97% decline in illegal border crossings by migrants from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela since Mexico started accepting those migrants. The numbers come just weeks after the Biden administration announced a new policy to accept 30,000 people a month from those countries combined, but also pledged to quickly expel any migrants who tried to enter illegally. Border crossings by migrants from those four countries have skyrocketed in the last year.

U.S. authorities had been stopping an average of 3,367 migrants from those four countries in the week that ended December 11th. In the seven-day period that ended Tuesday, the number dropped to 115. The Associated Press has the story, and there's a link to it in today's episode description. All right, next up is our numbers section. The total amount of military aid the United States has provided to Ukraine since the beginning of the Biden administration is $24.9 billion. The number of times the U.S. has used the drawdown of equipment from Department of Defense inventories to send weapons to Ukraine is 29. The number of M1 Abrams tanks the U.S. says it is sending to Ukraine is 31. The number of Russian tanks Ukraine says it

has destroyed during the war is 3,161. The number of Ukrainian tanks and other armored fighting vehicles Russia says it has destroyed during the war is 7,617. The total value of the 31 M1 Abrams tanks being sent to Ukraine is $400 million. All right, and last but not least, our have a nice day section. A pair of conjoined twins were successfully separated in Fort Worth, Texas in a remarkably complex surgery that took over 11 hours and was a first for the hospital involved. The twins, Amy Lynn and Jamie Lynn, were born prematurely and joined along their abdomens, sharing skin, muscle, and intra-abdominal organs, including the liver. 25 medical professionals, including six surgeons, took part in the surgery, and the parents say the

twins are recovering well in the hospital. We are very happy with their progress at this point, said Dr. Jose Iglesias, the lead surgeon on the twins' case. They're going to grow up into the little girls that they're supposed to be, independent and feisty like they've already shown us. CBS News has the story and there's a link to it in today's episode description. All right, everybody, that is it for today's podcast. Keep an eye out. Tomorrow, we are publishing an interview with a couple of former attorneys general who are fighting to keep the Supreme Court at nine justices and not be expanded. It was a pretty interesting conversation,

one I enjoyed very much, and we will be putting it up on the podcast tomorrow. So be sure to check it out and share it. Otherwise, we'll be back here next week on Monday, same time. Have a great weekend. Peace. Our podcast is written by me, Isaac Saul, and edited by Zosia Warpea. Our script is edited by Sean Brady, Ari Weitzman, and Bailey Saul. Shout out to our interns, Audrey Moorhead and Watkins Kelly, and our social media manager, Magdalena Bokova,

who created our podcast logo. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet75. For more from Tangle, check out our website at www.tangle.com. We'll see you next time. of Willis Wu, a background character trapped in a police procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. The flu remains a serious disease. Last season, over 102,000 influenza cases have been reported across Canada, which is nearly double the historic average of 52,000 cases. What can Thank you. ages six months and older and it may be available for free in your province. Side effects and allergic reactions can occur and 100% protection is not guaranteed. Learn more at flucellvax.ca.