Tangle - Ukraine's advance.

Episode Date: October 4, 2022

We're covering the latest from the war in Ukraine — including the annexations of four regions and Ukraine's advances. Plus, a question about Hurricane Ian and Ron DeSantis.You can read today's podcast here, today’s “Under the Radar” story here, and today’s “Have a nice day” story here.You can subscribe to Tangle by clicking here or drop something in our tip jar by clicking here.Our podcast is written by Isaac Saul and produced by Trevor Eichhorn. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet 75.Our newsletter is edited by Bailey Saul, Sean Brady, Ari Weitzman, and produced in conjunction with Tangle’s social media manager Magdalena Bokowa, who also created our logo.--- Send in a voice message: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/tanglenews/message Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Based on Charles Yu's award-winning book, Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu, a background character trapped in a police procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. The flu remains a serious disease. Last season, over 102,000 influenza cases have been reported across Canada, which is Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. yourself from the flu. It's the first cell-based flu vaccine authorized in Canada for ages six months and older, and it may be available for free in your province. Side effects and allergic reactions can occur, and 100% protection is not guaranteed. Learn more at flucellvax.ca.

From executive producer Isaac Saul, this is Tangle. Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening, and welcome to the Tangle Podcast, a place where you get views from across the political spectrum, some independent thinking without all that hysterical nonsense you find everywhere else. I'm your host, Isaac Saul, and I'm coming to you from a very rain and cold Philadelphia, Pennsylvania today. I think we're getting some remnants of Hurricane Ian. We have an interesting addition in today's podcast, Ukraine. We're going to be talking about Ukraine, some of the stuff that's going on there, some of the annexation that just happened,

and some of the advancements by Ukrainian forces in the war, and some reflections from me about some writing I did a few weeks ago and some of the criticism I got about it. All right. So before we jump in, though, as always, we'll start off with some quick hits. First up, the United Kingdom government reversed the plan to scrap the top rate of income tax after a public backlash and a major market turbulence. Number two, former President Donald Trump sued CNN and federal court for defamation, seeking $475 million. 3. The United States killed the leader of the militant group al-Shabaab in an airstrike in Somalia. 4. Herschel Walker, the pro-life Republican candidate for Senate in Georgia, was accused of paying an ex-girlfriend to have an abortion in 2009.

was accused of paying an ex-girlfriend to have an abortion in 2009. Walker denied the report from the Daily Beast, saying it was a flat-out lie and a repugnant hatchet job. Number five, the U.S. Soccer Federation said it has uncovered systematic emotional and physical abuse in the National Women's Soccer League. And now to a new breakthrough this morning by Ukrainian forces in the war with Russia. The military says it's regained ground in the southern Karsan region. Ukrainian forces in the recapture of the city of Liman marks a very significant gain since their counteroffensive just last month. Ukrainian officials say they've broken through Russian lines in all of four regions annexed last week by Vladimir Putin. Just days after Russia's President Vladimir Putin announced the annexation of four regions in

Ukraine, Ukrainian forces made their biggest advancement in the south since the war began, breaking through Russia's line in Kherson, the southeastern part of Ukraine. breaking through Russia's line in Kherson, the southeastern part of Ukraine. On Friday, at a concert in Moscow's Red Square, Putin proclaimed the provinces of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia to be Russian territory. The announcement amounted to Russia's president claiming nearly a fifth of Ukraine's land and the millions of citizens who live there to be Russian citizens forever. It came after Russia orchestrated referendums in eastern Ukraine which were universally condemned as sham elections by Ukraine and western nations.

As described by residents who escaped the regions and visible in footage released from the four areas, armed Russian-installed officials took ballot boxes from house to house to tally compulsory votes. Many Ukrainians had fled the region before the vote even took place. Donetsk and Luhansk have been home to two breakaway Russia-controlled republics since being occupied in 2014. Kherson and Zaborizhia have been occupied by Russian forces since the invasion in February. Just hours after the announcement in the Red Square, Ukrainian forces captured Liman, a key logistical city in the north of Donetsk province. Holding the town would give Ukrainian forces the ability to cut off Russian supply lines

and prevent any further attack in the area. At the same time, Ukrainian forces made their advances in the south, penetrating a line of defense in the Kursan region along the Dnieper River. Russia still controls large parts of eastern and southern Ukraine, but the recent advances threatened their advantages in the war. Western officials fear the progress could lead Russia to deploy a tactical nuclear weapon to make up for the failings of its troops. While Ukraine's forces are breaking through critical Russian lines, Russia's conscription effort has also been chaotic. After Putin announced the mobilization of citizens into the army, some 200,000 Russians

fled the country and thousands more protested in Russia. Shortly after Putin announced the annexation of the four regions, Russian officials had to concede they did not know where their borders were given the advancements of Ukrainian troops. Today, we're going to look at some of the reactions to Putin's annexation and the continuing advancement of Ukrainian forces. First off, I'd like to start with a little agreed section. Commentators on both the left and right are refusing to acknowledge the referendums held by Russia, describing them as sham elections being held in towns where residents had fled or among residents whose lives were at risk. There is still widespread support for Ukraine and encouragement about their advances on both sides, although both Republicans and Democrats are divided about how best to proceed.

both sides, although both Republicans and Democrats are divided about how best to proceed. First up, we'll start with what the left is saying. Many on the left are encouraged by Ukraine's resilience and call for a post-war vision for a defeated Russia. Some argue that Ukraine must be supported in reclaiming its territory and any future incursions by Putin must be stopped. Others suggest there is nothing more important than avoiding a nuclear strike. In the New York Times, Alexander Bonov said Putin's speech formed a blueprint for war and peace. Mr. Putin suggested that talks for ending the war should begin immediately. He appealed to Ukraine to cease hostilities, withdraw its troops from new Russian territories, and sit down at the negotiating table, Bonov said. The same type of ultimatum was issued on the eve of Russia's

invasion of Ukraine. On February 21st, Mr. Putin formally recognized the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics. After clarifying that he meant the entire regions, not just the area controlled by the separatists, he then demanded that the Ukrainian army withdraw from both. Within a few days, he launched his invasion. Mr. Putin's latest threat comes after a humiliating retreat from the Kharkiv region, Bonov wrote. It was this military setback that pushed Russia to announce the mobilization and the annexation, and it seems highly unlikely that the Ukrainians will consider Russia's request for talks seriously this time around. On the contrary, Ukraine has repeatedly said that annexation would mean an end to any attempt at negotiations with Mr. Putin's Russia. For Ukrainians, after what happened this week, even sitting down at the negotiating table would amount to surrender.

In the Washington Post, Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny made the case that the goal should be moving Russia toward a parliamentary democracy. If we examine the primary things said by Western leaders on this score, the bottom line remains. Russia, Putin, must not win this war, Navalny said. Ukraine must remain an independent democratic state capable of defending itself. This is correct, but it is a tactic. The strategy should be to ensure that Russia and its government naturally, without coercion, do not want to start wars and do not find them attractive. This is undoubtedly possible. Right now, the urge for aggression is coming from a minority in Russian society.

In my opinion, the problem with the West's current tactics lies not with the vagueness of their aim, but in the fact they ignore the question. What does Russia look like after the tactical goals have been achieved? Even if success is achieved, where is the guarantee that the world will not find itself confronting an even more aggressive regime, tormented by resentment and imperial ideas that have little to do with reality, Navalny asked. Russia must cease to be an instigator of aggression and instability. That is possible, and that is what should be seen as a strategic victory in this war. Certainly, changing Putin's regime in the country and choosing the path of development are not

matters for the West, but jobs for the citizens of Russia. Nevertheless, the West, which has imposed sanctions both on Russia as a state as well as on some of its elites, should make its strategic vision of Russia as a parliamentary democracy well as on some of its elites, should make its strategic vision of Russia as a parliamentary democracy as clear as possible. The Russian people and the Russian elite do not need to be forced. They need a clear signal and an explanation of why such a choice is better. The Washington Post editorial board said the West must deter the disaster of a nuclear war. Twice recently, Russian President Vladimir Putin has raised the prospect of using nuclear weapons in the war he launched to destroy Ukraine, the board said.

With Russian forces retreating in Ukraine's Donbass region, Mr. Putin's threats amount to desperate saber-rattling intended to frighten all. But his threats must not be brushed off completely, given Mr. Putin's record of folly and recklessness. What weapons are we talking about? Not the nuclear warheads carried by continent-spanning intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of city-busting strikes with limited warning, which define the Cold War. Rather, according to the authoritative Nuclear Notebook in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists by Hans M. Christensen and Matt Korda, Russia possesses 1,912 non-strategic or tactical

nuclear weapons designed to be launched from ground-based missiles, airplanes, or naval vessels. A nuclear blast in Ukraine, even low-yield, would kill civilians as well as soldiers and contaminate Russia, Ukraine, and beyond, they wrote. President Biden has properly warned of severe consequences, and Mr. Putin would be wise to listen. Former CIA director and retired General David Petraeus suggested incautiously on Sunday that NATO should launch a massive conventional, that is, non-nuclear military response, including sinking Russia's Black Sea fleet if the Kremlin uses a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine. This appears to be a recipe for wider war with Russia.

Far better to stop Mr. Putin before the cataclysm. Alright, that is it for what the left is saying, which brings us to what the right is saying. Money on the right are also encouraged by Ukraine's advances but worry about the endgame and aftermath. Some argue that the war will now end only with Putin's regime falling or World War III. Others criticize the sham elections saying they will weaken Putin and compel Ukraine to dig in. In the Wall Street Journal, Walter Russell Mead said Putin's nuclear threat is real. As the Biden administration scrambles to manage the most dangerous international confrontation since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, it must see the world through Mr. Putin's eyes.

Only then can officials know how seriously to take the nuclear saber-rattling and develop an appropriate response, Mead said. Mr. Putin sees global politics today as a struggle between a rapacious and domineering West and the rest of the world bent on resisting our arrogance and exploitation. The West is cynical and hypocritical, and its professed devotion to liberal values is a sham. The West is not a coalition of equals. It represents the domination of the evil Anglo-Saxons over the Europeans and Japan. Mr. Putin sees this American-led world system as the successor to the British Empire, and he blames the Anglo-Saxon or English-speaking powers for a

host of evils, from the Atlantic slave trade to European imperialism to the use of nuclear weapons in World War II. The Biden administration must remember that for Mr. Putin, the battle in Ukraine is only one part of a global war against the American-led world order. And if Ukraine is going poorly for Mr. Putin, the global scene is more encouraging, Meade said. Making threats about the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine advances both Mr. Putin's goals in Ukraine and his larger campaign against the American-led order. Nuclear weapons, he hopes, could shift the military balance on the ground, and the fear of nuclear war could force Washington to dial back military support for Ukraine. The threat of nuclear weapons could split Europe between peace-at-any-price governments and governments of countries

closer to Russia, whose determination to resist nuclear blackmail would only grow. In The American Conservative, Dominic Sansone said he underestimated the West's commitment to risk worldwide conflagration before sacrificing its belief in the manifest destiny of global liberal empire. It seems the West would rather the world disappear entirely than accept a march of history that doesn't end with the Kremlin lit up by rainbow floodlights and pussy riot playing at the Navalny swearing-in ceremony. Putin, likewise, would also see the world disappear before such a fate befalls his nation. We are at an impasse, he wrote, and China has not backed off from its support of Russia. Whatever means Putin may now be ready to employ to secure his gains in Ukraine

have been tacitly or explicitly accepted by China. If the United States does not agree to this outcome and continues to push Zelensky to attempt to recapture the Donbas or Crimea, full-scale mobilization is highly likely. Based on Charles Yu's award-winning book, Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu, a background character trapped in a police procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+.

The flu remains a serious disease. Last season, over 102,000 influenza cases have been reported across Canada, which is nearly double the historic average of 52,000 cases. What can you do this flu season? Talk to your pharmacist or doctor about getting a flu shot. Consider FluCellVax Quad and help protect yourself from the flu. It's the first cell-based flu vaccine authorized in Canada for ages six months and older, and it may be available for free in your province. Side effects and allergic reactions can occur, and 100% protection is not guaranteed. Learn more at FluCcellvax.ca. If Clausewitz was right and war is politics by other means, the primary goal of

Washington in the present conflict is the downfall of the Putin regime, he wrote. Anything less is failure. As a result, world war looms in a way it hasn't since the interwar years in Europe. Beijing understands as much. It doesn't support Moscow just because it enjoys accessing cheap As a result, World War looms in a way it hasn't since the interwar years in Europe. Beijing understands as much. It doesn't support Moscow just because it enjoys accessing cheap Russian gas or seeing the West drain its resources. A return to the economic status quo and freezing the conflict in Ukraine are all but impossible. The current conflict seems likely to either end with Putin falling from power or the West realizing that the post-Cold War order is

over. In Fox News, Rebecca Grant said the sham election in Ukraine will backfire on Putin. The gunpoint voting is over, and guess what? Russia says 87% to 99% of voters in four occupied swaths in Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kursan want to join Russia, she wrote. It's a sham, of course. President Vladimir Putin is trying to prove to his fellow Russians that he still has a mandate for the war in Ukraine. He's trying to freeze the conflict and keep the Donbass, some black seaports, and to protect access to Crimea.

But Putin is shooting himself in the foot by stealing this territory. By annexing territory in the four regions, Putin is really leaving Zelensky no choice but to continue to fight. Annexation means there is nothing to talk about with this president of Russia, Zelensky told the UN Security Council on Wednesday. From a military perspective, Russian forces do not even control all the territory Putin is snatching, Grant said. Ukraine's steady attacks won't stop or even slow down just because Putin holds a sham vote and makes a speech in Moscow. Ukraine is retaking ground where Russia made gains over the summer. While they have a long way to go, Ukraine's forces have the initiative and are continuing the successful tactics of striking deep at Russian supply lines and defenses. So why did he do it?

One can only conclude Putin is playing to a domestic Russian audience, minus the 180,000 Russians who have fled the country since the September 21st military call-up. Alright, that is it for what the left and the right are saying, which brings us to my take. So a few weeks ago, the last time we explicitly covered the war in Ukraine, my take made a few essential points. I argued that the West needed to continue supporting Ukraine, that the U.S. should continue its efforts to end the war, that we should not fund the war indefinitely without any clearly defined goals, that Ukraine shouldn't expect us to support them on a mission beyond ending the invasion that started this year, like, you know, retaking Crimea or other territory which was annexed in 2014.

These points drew a lot of criticism, some of which I publish in the newsletter. The upshot of arguments I heard was this. Allowing Putin some kind of soft victory, an out where he could tell his citizens he accomplished his mission and refusing to support Ukraine in taking back previously annexed territory was a cop-out. If the US simply supported Ukraine just enough to stem the tide of this invasion, but then allowed Putin and Russia to use its new territorial gains as a staging ground for any other invasion down the road, the result would be a massive loss for Ukraine and the rising level of instability in the region. And eventually, inevitably, Putin would just try again. Other readers wrote in with more sophisticated analysis of the driving forces behind the war, like Putin's desperation to

take control of Ukraine's energy resources, and pleaded with me to understand that nothing will stop him until he wins or loses decisively. Some argued that Western appeasement has already been tried, and that efforts to get Putin to hold legitimate elections have failed, and that Putin has already broken a laundry list of agreements and will never stop at Ukraine, he will only march on. The argument essentially is that I am living in fantasy land. No negotiated end to the war, especially not one a slap upside the back of the head. And I must concede, the events of the last few weeks and my own time reflecting on those comments makes the harsh realities they were trying to force me to see much more apparent.

There is a truth about this situation that I struggle to accept. It is not controllable. It's possible, if not likely, that no amount of diplomacy or western pressure or territorial concessions can shape this war. There is one person who can decide whether Russia pulverizes an entire nation in an effort to conquer it. There is one person who can stop the war. There is one person who can make the decision to change course, and that's Vladimir Putin. Here's another way to think about it. If Ukraine were to surrender right now and subject its citizens to the rape, torture, death, and other war crimes that occupied territories are experiencing, Putin would not simply install his puppets in Kiev and rest on

his laurels. He would turn his attention to the other Baltic states. This isn't something we need to speculate about. He's making it clear. His recent speeches, his annexation, his gravitas about restoring the historical greatness of Russia, he's not hiding his ambition. It's about his war on the West, one he is keen to keep fighting and starts with retaking Ukraine. Fortunately, Ukraine is nowhere near surrendering, and Putin's war is far closer to an abject failure and embarrassment than a conquest. If anything, this war has exposed his army's weakness and the reality that short of nuclear suicide, any ambition of his beyond Ukraine is hapless and delusional. In a slightly less

complicated alternate reality, one where Russia didn't have nukes and the US didn't just spend 20 years flailing in the Middle East, a swift NATO or US intervention in the war probably could have ended it in a matter of weeks. What many of the people who criticized my writing argued is that I should imagine something better, a victory more substantial than simply ceding territory and bargaining for a tenuous peace. In this vision, the failure of this war changes Russia for good. Either Putin is ousted by the oligarchs who no longer want to share in his failures, or his failures are so grave that people force Russia to move toward a more democratic system, one that restrains presidential power and gives

more voice to his opposition. This is something akin to the post-war Russia Alexei Navalny is pleading for people to imagine. After some reflection, I think those critics are right. Our end goal can't be the kind of regime change that has marred other conflicts, but when we have the freedom to construct a vision for the future, we should construct the best one possible, which is one that fundamentally preserves Ukraine's independence and fundamentally changes Russia for good. In this vision, Ukraine rides its momentum as far as it can. That means not just regaining territory it has lost since February, but also pushing Russia out of Crimea and other annexed territories, and ensuring the failure is so complete, so blindingly obvious, that no amount of propaganda and intimidation can make the Russian people forget. It should be a defeat that ends Putin's reign and sets Russia on a new path

forward, a moment in time not unlike the fall of the Soviet Union. I should say, of course, that I prefer this vision. I do. I struggle to see it on my own, and I'm terrified that any attempt to achieve it will end in nuclear catastrophe. But I admire the Ukrainians, the Russian dissidents, and even the Americans who call for it. I admire their optimism and hope and conviction that such a future is attainable. I just have a hard time envisioning visioning it myself. All right, that is it for my take, which brings us to your questions answered. This one is from Sharon in Orlando, Florida. She said, I'm seeing a lot of criticism of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis for requesting aid for Florida after supposedly opposing it for Hurricane Sandy victims. Generally, I'm also seeing people criticize his response to Hurricane Ian. What do you think about how he has done?

So, Sharon, we actually almost made Hurricane Ian the subject of today's newsletter, but ultimately I decided that I did not want to participate in the politicization of a natural disaster. I think DeSantis is doing well. Why not? He's giving sober addresses to the public, he's participating in relief efforts, he's fighting for Florida to get relief from the federal government. As far as we know, he also took a pretty cautious approach to the storm and called for more preparation than other governors may have, and he was right to raise the alarm. He's doing all the things you'd want from a governor. There is no good way to take a category four hurricane on the chin. There were mistakes, obviously, of course. There are some cited with

hyperlinks in today's newsletter, but that happens anytime there is a natural disaster. I criticized DeSantis for the Martha's Vineyard migrant stunt, and some have pointed out that he spent millions of dollars of Florida taxpayer money on flying migrants from Texas to New England that could have been used for hurricane relief just a few weeks later. I think those criticisms are legitimate. I also think it's a separate issue from his response to the hurricane. He has also been criticized for being one of the 66 Republicans who voted against government aid for victims of Hurricane Sandy. Again, those criticisms are legitimate, but legislators had a lot of different reasons for opposing that aid. I just hope now DeSantis might be a bit more understanding

of how terrible that all looked to New Yorkers in 2012. DeSantis has spent the week thanking Biden for federal support and ushering in a kind of ceasefire on the political wars to address the disaster. He seems to be taking his duty seriously, somberly, and executing the government's role well. That's about all you can ask for in a time like this. Alright, next up is our under the radar section. Planned Parenthood says it has launched its first ever mobile abortion clinic in Illinois. The organization announced plans for a 37-foot RV that will stay in Illinois but travel along the borders of adjoining states that have banned

abortion, hoping to make access easier for pregnant women who seek out the procedure. Illinois has not instituted a ban, but Missouri, Kentucky, and Tennessee, all neighboring states, have. Leaders of abortion clinics in Illinois say they have seen a spike in patients since the ban went into place and launched the mobile clinic in hopes of cutting down wait time. The Associated Press has the story and there is a link to it in today's episode description. Next up is our numbers section. The amount of money that Kim Kardashian was fined for promoting cryptocurrency without disclosing she had been paid for the promotion was $1.26 million.

The number of confirmed deaths as a result of Hurricane Ian in Florida, according to the Miami Herald, is now 100. Democrats' generic ballot advantage, according to a poll out this morning from the Morning Consult, is 49 to 44. John Fetterman's polling lead of Dr. Mehmet Oz in the Pennsylvania Senate race is now two points, according to a new survey from Emerson College. The number of job openings in the U.S. in August is now 10.1 million. That's down from 11.2 million in July. All right, and last but not least, our have a nice day section. A giant shipping container has found a not so novel way to save fuel while crossing the ocean. Sales. The China Merchant Energy Shipping

Center, CMES, has implemented the use of four giant sails on its tankers that will reduce fuel consumption by almost 10%. The sails are affixed atop the 1,093-foot-long supertanker. It will now have four retractable sails, each rising 130 feet from the deck, creating a 13,000-square-foot surface. Diesel will remain the primary power source for the ship, but the sales will save money and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. New Atlas has the story about this innovation where they're kind of going back in time. There's a link to it in today's episode description if you want to check it out. All right, everybody, that is it for today's podcast. We'll be back here tomorrow around the same time.

For those of you out there fasting for Yom Kippur starting tonight, I wish you an easy fast. I'll be right there with you starving by noontime tomorrow. Have a good one. Peace. Our podcast is written by me, Isaac Saul, and edited and produced by Trevor Eichhorn. Our script is edited by Ari Weitzman, Sean Brady, and Bailey Saul. Shout out to our interns, Audrey Moorhead and Watkins Kelly,

and our social media manager, Magdalena Bokova, who designed our logo. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet75. For more from Tangle, subscribe to our newsletter or check out our website at www.readtangle.com. We'll be right back. Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. The flu remains a serious disease. Last season, over 102,000 influenza cases have been reported across Canada, which is nearly double the historic average of 52,000 cases. What can you do this flu season? Talk to your pharmacist or doctor about getting a flu shot.

Consider FluCellVax Quad and help protect yourself from the flu. It's the first cell-based flu vaccine authorized in Canada for ages 6 months and older, and it may be available for free in your province. Side effects and allergic reactions can occur, and 100% protection is not guaranteed. Learn more at FluCellVax.ca.