Tangle - Ukraine's counteroffensive.

Episode Date: September 13, 2022

Happy 1 year anniversary to the Tangle Podcast!Advancing Ukrainian troops have made sudden gains with "shocking speed" in the northeastern region of the country, prompting several U.S. military experts to suggest this may be a major turning point in the war. Plus, a question about investigating political leaders.Read Tangle's previous Ukraine coverage here.Read today's "Under the Radar story here.Today's clickables: Quick hits (04:28), Story of the Day (05:39), Right's take (09:14), Left's take (13:50), Isaac's take (18:15), Listener question (21:36), Under the Radar (24:15), Numbers (25:04), Have a Nice Day (25:48)You can read today's podcast here.You can subscribe to Tangle by clicking here or drop something in our tip jar by clicking here.Our podcast is written by Isaac Saul and produced by Trevor Eichhorn. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet 75.Our newsletter is edited by Bailey Saul, Sean Brady, Ari Weitzman, and produced in conjunction with Tangle’s social media manager Magdalena Bokowa, who also created our logo.--- Send in a voice message: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/tanglenews/message Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Based on Charles Yu's award-winning book, Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu, a background character trapped in a police procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. The flu remains a serious disease. Last season, over 102,000 influenza cases have been reported across Canada, which is Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. yourself from the flu. It's the first cell-based flu vaccine authorized in Canada for ages six months and older, and it may be available for free in your province. Side effects and allergic reactions can occur, and 100% protection is not guaranteed. Learn more at flucellvax.ca.

From executive producer Isaac Saul, this is Tangle. Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening, and welcome to the Tangle Podcast, the place where you get views from across the political spectrum. Some independent thinking without all that hysterical nonsense you find everywhere else. I'm your host, Isaac Saul, and on today's episode, we're going to be talking about Ukraine's counteroffensive, the much-talked-about counteroffensive that's happening right now in the war with Russia. Before we jump in, though, today's a special day. I want to acknowledge it. This is officially one year of our podcast. We've been doing this daily podcast for a full

year now, which is pretty wild. This is, I think, something a lot of people wanted and asked for, and the result so far has been pretty good. We have over 400,000 all-time downloads. We have a daily audience of about 4,000 listeners. We've got basically a five-star rating on Apple Podcasts. I want to give a special shout out and congrats to our editor and producer, Trevor Eichhorn, who has been the magic behind the podcast since our first real episode. He started out by editing some of our interviews I was doing on sort of a freelance basis. And then when I decided to try and do this all the way and really read every newsletter and turn every

newsletter into a podcast, he jumped at the opportunity to hop on. And I get so many compliments about just the quality of the audio and the sound, the editing and the music and all that stuff. And he's responsible for it. So thank you, Trevor. I'm so stoked we're here. Just so you guys know, we are not treading water here. We are trying to improve things and make stuff better. There is some stuff on the horizon that I'm hoping to do. First of all, I'm trying to do more interviews with just fascinating people in politics. Interview podcasts tend to be our most listened to. I get the most positive feedback about them. I have the most fun doing them.

I mean, I enjoy reading and riffing on the newsletter every morning, but talking to people is really my passion. And, you know, so I love doing the interviews. I'm trying to book as many of them as possible. You know, we haven't consistently been doing one a week, but I hope to get there soon. We're also looking into ways to get your voices on the podcast. This could be just leaving voicemails on some kind of Google voice number or recordings through the Anchor podcast website app, whatever, asking questions, reader questions. We can play you asking your question on the air.

It's something we're going to work in. It's been on our roadmap for a little while, so I'm super stoked about that. And finally, we are also hoping to do Friday edition podcasts. This is probably the most requested thing I get. Just so you guys know, obviously right now, the newsletter sends out Friday editions that are locked behind a paywall. The reason that I don't currently do Friday edition podcasts is sort of twofold. One is that recording this podcast is a lot of work. Those Friday editions are a ton of work. And usually by the end of the week on Friday, I am totally cooked. And the Friday editions tend to be our longest ones. So turning them in a podcast is just a huge lift. And I just frankly don't have the time and often the energy to do it.

But it's also tricky because I don't want to just release our paywalled content in a podcast form that's free. And then people can just not subscribe and just wait for the podcast to come out. So if we do that, which I'm hoping we do, those podcasts are probably going to be behind some kind of paywall. And then you'll just be able to choose if you want to subscribe to the newsletter or subscribe to the podcast or subscribe to both. That's kind of the rough game plan right now. But yes, I hear you. I know many people want it. And so we're going to work on that. So that's the update on the podcast. One year. Awesome. Thank you all for listening. Thank you, Trevor, for all the help. And spread the word. Send this pot around to some

friends and family and let's beef up that listenership and score some big ad deals and make a bunch of money and blow this thing up. That's what I'd love to do. All right. With that, we're going to jump in with our quick hits for the day. First up, the Consumer Price Index rose 8.3% in August compared to a year ago, lower than 8.5% in July but above expectations. On a monthly basis, the index rose by 0.1%. Energy prices have fallen while food and shelter prices continue to rise sharply. Number two, President Joe Biden appointed Dr. Renee Weggerson, a biomedical scientist, to lead his Cancer Moonshot Initiative. Number three, the penalty phase of the defamation trial in Connecticut for Alex Jones begins today,

the outcome of which will determine how much monetary damage he owes to victims' families for claiming that the 2012 Sandy Hook massacre was a hoax. Number four, 15,000 nurses in Minnesota launched a three-day strike after talks to produce a contract extension failed. It is believed to be the largest private sector nurses strike in United States history. Number five, the Justice Department issued 40 subpoenas in a week, spanning an array of current and former associates of former President Donald Trump. Tonight, a major victory for the Ukrainians in what could be a turning point in this war. Ukrainian forces claiming to have retaken more than 40 towns in just a matter of days. And tonight, we've learned that in some cases, they have pushed Russian soldiers

right back into Russia. A stunning retreat by Russia overnight as Ukrainian forces claw back parts of the south and east of their country. And as the war enters its 200th day, there is another significant development. A blitzkrieg offensive, as successful as it was surprising. Ukrainians say it's gone, quote, better than expected. Advancing Ukrainian troops have made sudden gains with shocking speed in the northeastern region of the country, prompting several U.S. military experts to suggest this may be a major turning point in the war. Ukraine has retaken more than 20 settlements, and some units have reportedly reached the border of Russia in their

push. The British Defense Ministry said Ukraine's forces have captured territory at least twice the size of Greater London. The sudden gains have prompted unusual criticism of the Kremlin from Russian allies, including loyalists like Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov. While many Ukrainians and supporters celebrated the sudden push, it does not signify a definitive shift in the war. Russia still occupies significant Ukrainian territory, including Mariupol, Melitopol, and Kherson. They still control the land bridge to Crimea, which was annexed in 2014. And in response to the sudden push, Russia flexed its muscle, launching missiles against critical electrical stations in Kharkiv and Donetsk, which took out power for as many as

9 million people on Monday. Still, the counteroffensive has once again forced Russian forces to regroup and called into question the capability of Russian forces and strategy. This is a significant event, Rob Lee, a military analyst at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, told the Washington Post. It doesn't mean Russia will be forced out of Ukraine anytime soon, but they keep not learning lessons right, keep not doing basic things right. The overall situation now favors Ukraine, especially in the medium term, end quote. Perhaps most notably, the offensive has forced Russian troops out of cities like Izyum. Perhaps most notably, the offensive has forced Russian troops out of cities like Izyum. Perhaps most notably, the offensive has forced Russian troops out of cities like Izyum, a special supply hub for Russia's northern front, which is key to Putin's objective of capturing the Donbass region.

That goal is one of the few publicly stated objectives of his so-called special military operation, an objective now in doubt. In a moment, we're going to hear some reactions from the left and the right, and then my take. Remember, you can find all of our previous coverage of the war in Ukraine with links in today's podcast, including our most recent podcast, which was published on August 18th. First up, we'll start with what the right is saying. Most on the right are hopeful about the momentum changes, but still skeptical of Biden's long-term plan. Some fear how Putin may respond to losing the war. Others ask what Biden is doing to help facilitate an end to the war. In Fox News, Rebecca Grant said the aid to Ukraine is working.

Ukraine is on the attack and it's working, Grant said. On Thursday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken made a surprise visit to Kiev, promising to help for as long as it takes and announcing $3 billion in aid. Then, at the Pentagon, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley confirm Ukraine has launched a major counteroffensive in the South. Ukraine's been out of the headlines this summer, and the sheer mass of Russia's army and their limitless barbarity stoked fears that Russia may be too strong after all. The triple play by Blinken, Austin, and Milley reversed all that. Milley described a very deliberate offensive attack by Ukraine that is calibrated to set conditions and then seize their objectives. On day 197, this is no stalemate, she said.

their objectives. On day 197, this is no stalemate, she said. Russia and Ukraine are fighting on a curving 300-mile front, with Russia launching a renewed grinding attack near Bakhmut in the east, while Ukraine pushes a successful counter-offensive center on Kherson in the south. From what the Pentagon says, Russian President Vladimir Putin is losing, and Russian forces in Ukraine are having great difficulty with supplies, reinforcements, and even basic command and control. Americans can be proud of this. The military training and tactical coaching by America and other allies is paying off on the battlefield for Ukraine. To my eye, there is now a military plan in place to push Russia back. It took Team Biden a while, but Blinken, Austin, and Milley made clear the military operations are in high gear. Ukraine is on the path to victory. The Wall Street Journal editorial board expressed concern about how Putin may respond. Ukraine's advances raised the stakes for Mr. Putin. Russian military

bloggers are sounding the alarm, but Mr. Putin has been reluctant to mobilize the entire country for his special military operation, lest he court more domestic opposition. Russia's response on Sunday to its recent losses was to attack power stations in Kharkiv and other cities. This is an attack on electricity for civilians, the board said. The Russian is capable of anything. He could engage NATO forces in some fashion that he would blame on the West and use to justify a military draft. He's meeting this week with Chinese President Xi Jinping and is likely to seek direct military aid that the U.S. says Beijing hasn't provided so far. He's also likely to cut off energy supplies to Europe even more than he has to keep the

pressure on the West as cold weather arrives. Russia's use of chemical and tactical nuclear weapons also can't be ruled out, they wrote. The use of battlefield nukes is part of standard Russian military doctrine. Rather than lose in humiliating fashion, Mr. Putin may calculate the military benefits are worth the risk. We hope Western leaders have been mulling how to respond, rather than thinking it can't happen. One point to make clear is that the fault would all be Mr. Putin's, not Ukraine's. Factions in the West, on the right and left, believe Ukraine should be left to its fate without Western aid, and left, believe Ukraine should be left to its fate without Western aid, and they will blame Ukraine for having the nerve to defend itself

against a brutal invader. In the American Conservative, Doug Bando questioned the strategy going forward. The Biden administration has made no effort to pass European defense responsibilities to where they belong, the Europeans, Bando wrote. For years, prosperous European allies have refused to take responsibility for their own defense, preferring to free ride on America. Russia's invasion of Ukraine appeared to finally shake the continent from its complacency. However, despite much rhetoric, especially from Germany, the continent's wealthiest but perhaps least responsible power, enthusiasm for spending more on defense among the European countries is fading. With the Biden administration rushing U.S. forces to Europe,

other NATO members are happy to let Uncle Sam pick up the check. Despite the torrent of promises to back Kiev until the Second Coming, the Europeans have so far allowed Washington to provide most of the military aid for Ukraine, as well as troops for Europe, Bando wrote. Contrary to Washington's pious proclamations about selflessly helping the heroic Ukrainians, the Biden administration appears dedicated to using Kiev to fight a proxy war against Russia. Americans remain safely at home while Washington battles Moscow and Europe to the last Ukrainian. With its current strategy, the Biden administration seems prepared to finance

a war that kills off Ukraine's entire male population to weaken Russia. Alright, that is it for what the right is saying, which brings us to the left's take. Based on Charles Yu's award-winning book, Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu, a background character trapped in a police procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. and help protect yourself from the flu. It's the first cell-based flu vaccine authorized in Canada for ages six months and older, and it may be available for free in your province. Side effects and allergic reactions can occur, and 100% protection is not guaranteed. Learn more at

flucellvax.ca. The left is also hopeful about the momentum swing and calling for continued or increasing support for Ukraine. Some express fear that weapons we are sending may end up lost. Others call on Biden and Zelensky to try to begin negotiations. The Guardian's editorial board called it a stunning breakthrough. The lightning offensive by Ukrainian troops in the northeast of the country constitutes the most significant moment in the war since March, when Vladimir Putin's assault on Kiev was repulsed and his invading forces beat a hasty retreat eastwards, they wrote. Over five days, thousands of square kilometers of the occupied east, including the strategically vital cities of Kupyansk and Izyum, have been liberated. According to Ukrainian commanders, Russian troops have been pushed back to the border. The Institute for the Study of War estimates that the counteroffensive

has taken control of more territory than Russian forces have managed in all operations since April. Skillful use of Western rockets and artillery allowed the Ukrainian military to successfully target Russian supply lines and erode its massive advantage in military hardware. For Volodymyr Zelensky, the gains in the Northeast will be a priceless lobbying asset as he seeks to persuade Western allies to step up delivery of the advanced weaponry used so effectively by his commanders. The successful counteroffensive and smaller gains in the south has undermined the idea that Russian consolidation in those regions is inevitable. The strength and determination of Ukrainian resistance will be redoubled and it will become harder for Russia to establish

its authority in recently occupied eastern territory. Ultimately, driving Russian forces back to at least within the territories taken over in 2014 no longer seems implausible. In The Intercept, Elise Sperry wondered about the risk of continuing to send so many weapons to Ukraine. Because the assistance is drawn from a variety of sources, and because it's not always easy to distinguish between aid that's been authorized, pledged, or delivered, some analysts estimate the true figures of the U.S. commitment to Ukraine is much higher, up to $40 billion in security assistance, or $110 million a day over the last year, she said. This assistance is believed to be playing an important role in the advances Ukraine is making in an ongoing offensive to retake territories seized by Russia earlier this year. What is clear is that the volume and speed of the assistance headed to Ukraine is unprecedented and that legislators and observers are struggling to keep up.

There is little precedent for the breakneck pace and scale of U.S. spending on Ukraine, she added. The relentless stream of funding announcements, in the absence of any public discussion of what the U.S. is doing to seek an end to the conflict has signaled to critics a recognition that there is no end in sight to the war and that the U.S. is committed to supporting Ukrainian defense efforts for the long haul rather than pursue a negotiated end to it. In recent conflicts, the U.S. lost track of tens of thousands of rifles and pistols it bought for Iraqi security forces and tens of thousands more pieces of equipment were lost in Afghanistan, frequently ending up in the hands of the Taliban, who loved to display them. In the Washington Post, David Ignatius celebrated the advances and said Zelensky could now negotiate

from a position of strength. Zelensky has refused to negotiate from weakness. Now, after seven punishing months, he's in a position of strength. Talking to his exuberant country, he speaks of liberating all of Ukraine's territory. But he must know that is unrealistic for now, Ignatius said, and the moment might be approaching when Zelensky, from his newly dominant position, opens a door to diplomacy. Even if Russians scorned his gesture, it would reinforce the image that Zelensky has the upper hand. Putin has always wanted to make Ukraine a living room war, something Russians could watch on television while Chechens did the fighting. It wasn't even a real war, it was a special military operation against a country that Putin claimed didn't really exist. Most Russians seemed to

cheer the war because they shared Putin's grievance that it was all the fault of NATO and the Americans. Putin's problem now is that all those television watchers in Moscow and St. Petersburg can see that the Russian leader's non-war is a total mess, Ignatius wrote. The Biden administration has consistently stressed three points about this war. It is committed to support Ukraine with weapons it needs to defend itself. It doesn't want a war with Russia, and it believes that, eventually, this conflict must be settled by diplomacy. All three goals should come into sharper focus after Ukraine's successful offensive. Alright, that is it for the left and the right's take, which brings us to my take.

left than the right's take, which brings us to my take. Look, I really hate media narratives that treat war, you know, death, bombings, prisoners, torture, hunger, like football games. Momentum and surprises and comebacks and advances, it's not that. Remember, we aren't talking about the war-ravaged eastern part of the country here. Ukraine's success is that they've retaken thousands of square miles of territory that were peaceful and intact just a few short months ago. It has taken tens of thousands of dead and wounded, billions of dollars of military aid, and months of unbelievably grim warfare to get back to something close to neutral in one corner of the country. That's not to say it doesn't matter. It does, very much. In the midst of such a horrifying, discouraging drama, it's the kind of encouraging sign I'll take. But it's only

a good thing if it opens the door to actually ending the fighting. Not only must Ukraine now hold the region and keep Russia cut off from supply refills and other strategic advantages, it must also survive what's going to come next, which appears to be hell. Russia is now targeting civilian infrastructure, and it is not hard to imagine why. From Putin's perspective, with winter around the corner, an energy war will be a fine way to tighten the vice, and 9 million people without power after a few artillery strikes is a pretty good way to start. 9 million. In the US, we get wall-to-wall coverage about historic hurricanes that knock out power for a few hundred thousand. Russia took down power for 9 million people in a

matter of hours. All this is to say, I hope we see Zelensky, Biden, and European allies seize the momentum and move towards some kind of endgame. It's probably not going to happen anytime soon, given all the signs that point to something else. Biden and the US appear committed to supplying weapons not just for the months to come, but the years to come. Zelensky is now talking about retaking territory that was annexed in 2014, well before this latest invasion. And European allies are scrambling to prepare for a winter and a future without Russian natural gas. None of this should be accepted. This war isn't about Ukraine taking back Crimea, and our support shouldn't be about extending Ukraine's borders to pre-2014.

It should be about flushing out Russian forces and forcing Putin to revise his plans, even if it means letting him pretend he won as long as he leaves. Not that I find them convincing, but I know there are good faith arguments Russia was justified or that the United States minds its own business. But whatever led up to the war, the central plotline was that an authoritarian leader was trying to claim 40 million people belonged to him. I think no matter where you land on the blame game, we can all agree the world will be better off if that man's quest is halted and if the fighting stops. When the war first broke out, I wrote clearly and plainly that we should do everything we can to protect Ukraine and deter Russia for

as long as possible. Ukraine succeeded in this initial mission, and Biden has kept his promise to support them. Six months later, we are well beyond that initial offense, and every resource should be centrally focused on stopping the death and destruction. Ukraine has an opening to seek concessions, or at least a pause. The odds, of course, are very low that they and their NATO partners can compel Russia to back down, but they all have a responsibility to engage and try. Alright, that is it for my take. Next up is your questions answered. This one's from Sophie in Fayetteville, Arkansas. Sophie said, I have a question about political investigations. Recently, it seems like whenever one party is in power, it spends a significant amount of time investigating shenanigans by prominent members of the other party.

Hillary Clinton's emails, Hunter Biden's laptop, the bazillion Trump investigations. I'm not saying these investigations don't have merit, but they don't seem to accomplish much except inflaming our already dangerously divided politics and eroding trust in our government. Each party automatically seems to believe that investigations into its actions are politically motivated. Is there a better, more apolitical way to investigate wrongdoing by prominent politicians and their families? How do other democracies handle such investigations? So, Sophie, great question. Interestingly enough, I'd say we're actually the least interested in prosecuting former political leaders. America's attitude, basically since Gerald Ford pardoned Nixon to avoid upsetting the quote-unquote tranquility the nation had experienced due to his resignation, seems to be that it's better to let bygones be bygones than tear the country apart by trying to prosecute

political leaders. Elsewhere, though, that attitude seems far more common. In fact, it has happened a lot recently, which Joshua Keaton laid out in astonishing detail in Slate. Former French President Nicolas Sarkozy was taken to court for corruption and influence peddling, and his predecessor was convicted of embezzling funds while mayor of Paris. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is also fighting corruption charges, and former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert was convicted of accepting bribes in 2015. Several of South Korea's recent leaders have been taken to prison for corruption, and one died by suicide before a legal investigation was completed. Brazil's president, whose term ended in 2010, was sentenced to 12 years in jail for corruption

before being freed after 580 days. Italy's former prime minister has been under a constant barrage of investigations. Mexico's former president, Enrique Peña Nieto, is now under investigation as well. So, it seems the reason for prosecution in most of these instances was legitimately criminal and not necessarily political. Not all of these are democracies, but many are, and for whatever it's worth, the European Union has made it easier to charge former presidents and prime ministers. From their view, the immunity laid out for presidents, including the extremely high threshold for impeachment, should probably be reduced. In other words, this is all

pretty unique to us, but it's actually not that uncommon elsewhere. And I think what we're seeing play out right now is pretty similar to what's happened in a lot of other democracies. All right, that is it for your questions answered, which brings us to our under the radar section. That is it for your questions answered, which brings us to our under the radar section. Los Angeles County has begun its guaranteed basic income trial program for 1,000 residents. Over the next three years, participants will receive $1,000 a month from the government. They must be over the age of 18 and have a household income under $56,000 for a single person or $96,000 for a family of four, and they must also have experienced negative impacts due to COVID-19. The program was developed to study and address poverty and income instability.

This is one of the largest attempts to evaluate the potential impact of what is popularly called universal basic income in the United States. NBC Los Angeles has the story, and there's a link in today's podcast description. All right, next up is our numbers section. The percentage of respondents who said the U.S. should back Ukraine until all Russian forces are withdrawn is 53%, according to a late August Reuters poll. The percentage of respondents who said they oppose supporting Ukraine until Russian forces withdraw was 18%. The percentage of Democrats who said the U.S. should back Ukraine until Russia withdraws was 66%. And the percentage of Republicans who said the U.S. should back Ukraine until Russian forces withdraw was 51%. The percentage of respondents who said they would support sending U.S. troops to Ukraine was 26%. Alright, last but not least, our have a nice day section. Child poverty rates in the United States

fell 59% between 1993 and 2019. That's according to a new study. The comprehensive new analysis shows that child poverty has fallen in every state to the same degree across racial lines, among households with one or two parents, and even in immigrant and native-born homes. The New York Times reports that deep poverty has also fallen by the same rate. In 1993, some 28% of children, or 19.4 million kids, were poor, lacking the basic necessities. In 2019, pre-pandemic, that number was 11%, representing 8.4 million kids. The analysis points to welfare programs for working families and a focus from the federal government on low-income children.

You can find the analysis with a link in today's podcast description, as well as a link to the New York Times story. All right, everybody, that is it for our podcast today. Like I said, one year we're celebrating. Thank you all so much for the support. And, you know, today's a better day than ever to send the podcast around to friends, tell them to subscribe and listen. And if you haven't yet, go give us a five-star

rating on the podcast. It helps us find new listeners. We'll be back right here, same time tomorrow. Peace. Our podcast is written by me, Isaac Saul, and edited and produced by Trevor Eichhorn. Our script is edited by Ari Weitzman, Sean Brady, and Bailey Saul. Shout out to our interns, Audrey Moorhead and Watkins Kelly, and our social media manager, Magdalena Bokova, who designed our logo. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet75. For more from Tangle, subscribe to our newsletter or check out our website at www.readtangle.com.

Based on Charles Yu's award-winning book, Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu, We'll be right back. his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. The flu remains a serious disease. Last season, over 102,000 influenza cases have been reported across Canada, which is nearly double the historic average of 52,000 cases. What can you do this flu season? Talk to your pharmacist or doctor about getting a flu shot. Consider FluCellVax Quad and help protect yourself from the flu. It's the first cell-based flu vaccine authorized in Canada for ages six months and older, and it may be available for free in your province.

Side effects and allergic reactions can occur, and 100% protection is not guaranteed. Learn more at FluCellVax.ca.