Tangle - U.S. agrees to send Ukraine F-16 jets.

Starting point is 00:00:00 Based on Charles Yu's award-winning book, Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu, a background character trapped in a police procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. The flu remains a serious disease. Last season, over 102,000 influenza cases have been reported across Canada, which is Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. yourself from the flu. It's the first cell-based flu vaccine authorized in Canada for ages six months and older, and it may be available for free in your province. Side effects and allergic reactions can occur, and 100% protection is not guaranteed. Learn more at flucellvax.ca.

Starting point is 00:01:00 From executive producer Isaac Saul, this is Tangle. Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening, and welcome to the Tangle podcast, an independent, nonpartisan, subscriber-supported podcast where we summarize the best arguments from across the political spectrum on the news of the day and then my take. I'm your host, Isaac Saul, and on today's episode, we are going to be breaking down the F-16 fighter jets that are headed to Ukraine, reportedly at least, what they mean, and some arguments from the right and the left about those jets. Before we jump in, though, I do want to let you know that tickets for our live event in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania on August 3rd are officially on sale. There is a link in today's episode description. There is a link on our website at readtangle.com slash live. There is a link in our newsletter today. I encourage you to go check that link out. We need to sell. We need to sell

Starting point is 00:02:12 tickets, sell out this venue so we can take Tangle on the road. I would very much appreciate your support in that endeavor. If you want to check it out, go to one of those links, buy a ticket. They're cheap. They're only 25 bucks for general admission. You get a seat, can have some exclusive merch, some guests, a moderated debate, drinks. It's going to be a good time. I would very much love to see some of you guys out there. And yeah, looking forward to it. All right, with that out the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, though Ukraine's president has denied they have succeeded in capturing it. Number two, Senator Tim Scott, the Republican from South Carolina, is expected to announce his run for president today and has

Starting point is 00:03:01 won the endorsement of Senator John Thune, the number two Republican in the Senate. Number three, the Supreme Court declined to reinterpret Section 230, a victory for Google and tech companies who were being sued for liability in two terrorism-related cases. Number four, Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, the Republican from Georgia, filed articles of impeachment against President Joe Biden and others in his administration, alleging neglect of migrant flows at the border. Number five, Senator Dianne Feinstein, the Democrat from California, suffered more serious complications from her bout with shingles than previously disclosed. President Biden just told the allies that the U.S. will support efforts to train Ukrainian pilots on F-16 fighter jets. Zelensky desperately wants those planes inside his country.

Starting point is 00:04:03 President Biden has informed the G7 allies here that the United States has agreed to allow Ukrainian pilots to begin training to fly American-made F-16 fighter jets. This move represents a major reversal for Biden and a wish fulfilled for Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky, who has pleaded for F-16s for months. Assurances you have for providing F-16s won't escalate this war. I have a flat assurance from Zelensky that they will not, they will not use it to go on and move into Russian geographic territory. But wherever Russian troops are within Ukraine in the area, they would be able to do that. The United States and its allies are planning to provide F-16

Starting point is 00:04:52 fighter jets to Ukraine as part of a long-term effort to strengthen its military. The decision was announced by the Biden administration on Friday at the G7 summit and comes after months of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky pleading with the U.S. and allies to provide the jets. Until now, Biden has refused the request. The U.S. and its allies will decide when to actually provide jets, how many we will provide, and who will provide them, one official told NBC News. While those details are still unknown, a senior official did say the U.S. would support joint allied training programs for Ukrainian pilots on F-16s. Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko responded to

Starting point is 00:05:31 the news on Saturday, saying Western countries run colossal risks if they decide to supply Ukraine with F-16 fighter jets. Meanwhile, Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Colonel Yuri Ignat said Ukraine would win this war once it deploys F-16 fighters as it would allow them to provide defensive cover in areas that have been out of range of anti-aircraft missiles. Delivering the jets and training Ukrainian pilots to fly them has been a major point of contention among U.S. officials and NATO allies who worry about whether it would amount to an escalation in the war and to what degree training Ukrainian soldiers would put Americans or Europe at greater risk. Officials in Poland, France, and England have all expressed openness to providing Ukraine with advanced fighter jets in the past,

Starting point is 00:06:15 but any plans to share the American-made planes requires the permission of the U.S. government. Today, we're going to take a look at some arguments about the F-16s from the right and the left, and then my take. You can find our previous coverage of the war in Ukraine with a link in today's episode description. First up, we'll start with what the right is saying. The right is somewhat split on the decision, though most criticize Biden for taking too long. Critics argue that Ukraine could have the jets operating by now if Biden had agreed to the plan when Ukraine wanted. Others suggest the jets will not make as big of a difference as pundits believe. The Wall Street Journal editorial board said the obvious question is why this decision took 15 months. In February, Mr. Biden insisted that Ukraine didn't need Western jets. Apparently, three months later, the jets would be helpful. That's been the White House pattern throughout

Starting point is 00:07:19 the Ukraine conflict. Resist more advanced weapons, then finally provide them much later after more carnage, the finally provide them much later after more carnage, the board said. The British have been ahead of the U.S. in offering long-range missiles and pilot training. Leaks to the media suggest that the F-16 training that was heretofore impossible may happen in Poland. U.S. allies are flush with F-16s as the newer F-35 comes online, so delivering them to Ukraine shouldn't degrade NATO's defenses. This will also help the U.S. learn more about Russia's air defenses and provide tremendous lessons about the capability of Putin's army. U.S. officials say it will take months to train pilots and we'll never know what the war might look like today if Mr. Biden had offered such

Starting point is 00:07:59 powerful assets a year ago, the board said. But the president can still decide to help the Ukrainians mount the best possible offensive, train the pilots fast, cut red tape in transferring jets, and help Kiev push the Russians back to Russia. In National Review, Jim Garrity criticized Biden for refusing up until now. The Ukrainian Air Force requested F-15s and or F-16s back in March 2022. If we had started training Ukrainian pilots back then and supplied Ukraine with the jets once their pilots were ready, the Ukrainian skies would be full of F-16s winning air superiority by now, Garrity said. Given the war is likely to go on six months from now, we can decide whether we want it to feature Ukrainian pilots in U.S.-made F-16s

Starting point is 00:08:42 or not. Back in February, Biden insisted in an awkward interview, does he have any other kind, that Zelensky and the Ukrainian military didn't need F-16s, even though they have been begging for them for a year, Garrity wrote. Ukrainians' pilots are flying the equivalent of a minivan, and Biden has been insisting they don't need the keys to a sports car. In responsible statecraft, Daniel L. Davis said the jets won't fundamentally alter the war. Even if it only takes four months to train Ukrainian pilots, the process to identify F-16s from partner countries, get them airworthy, and then deliver them with the full contingent of maintenance supplies, spare parts, and ammunition will likely

Starting point is 00:09:21 take into 2024. That means there is little likelihood F-16s see the skies this year. These jets are also meant to be one component in an integrated command and control battle management of sensors. While the jet is capable of operating on its own, it is far less capable without additional acquisition assets such as the E-3 Century AWACS, and there has been no discussion of providing this to Ukraine. Third, the F-16 is not AWACS, and there has been no discussion of providing this to Ukraine. Third, the F-16 is not a stealth aircraft, which means it is vulnerable to Russian air defenses. Ukraine's air force has played a minimal role because of these defenses, and while the F-16 is more capable than the MiG-29s the Ukrainians have been using,

Starting point is 00:10:00 it is still vulnerable to attack by Russia's air defenses. All right, that is it for what the right is saying, which brings us to what the left is saying. Many on the left support the decision, saying providing the jets is worth the risk. Supporters argue the F-16s would help now and are a good long-term strategy to shore up Ukraine's defenses. Others on the left criticize Biden for continuing to cross his own red lines and worry it could escalate the war. In Bloomberg, James Stavridis said providing the jets is worth the risk. The risks are clear. Russia will see it as direct American intervention and thus there is chance of escalation, which could lead to the use of weapons of mass destruction. However, Putin is

Starting point is 00:10:51 highly unlikely to exercise such an option because of strident opposition from China, his main supporter, as well as India and the global south. There's also a risk that a complexity of training and maintaining the jets causes the Ukrainians to waste valuable combat resources and personnel to produce a less than robust new capability. On the other hand, F-16s are rugged and relatively simple to maintain and operate, Stavridis said. They are the Swiss army knife of the air battlefield with tremendous range and maneuverability and can operate virtually every missile and bomb in the Allied inventory. Putin's generals are pushing for him to take out entire cities and critical infrastructure, and the F-16s could deploy at two or three bases around Ukraine on five-minute alert status,

Starting point is 00:11:35 which is standard practice with fighters on the deck of a U.S. aircraft carrier, and be directed against incoming flights of Russian aircraft in air-to-air combat mode. At the end of February, the Washington Post editorial board was pushing Biden to send the He directed against incoming flights of Russian aircraft in air-to-air combat mode. At the end of February, the Washington Post editorial board was pushing Biden to send the fighter jets to Ukraine. Based on Charles Yu's award-winning book, Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu, a background character trapped in a police procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on

Starting point is 00:12:15 Disney+. The flu remains a serious disease. Last season, over 102,000 influenza cases have been reported across Canada, which is nearly double the historic average of 52,000 cases. What can you do this flu season? Talk to your pharmacist or doctor about getting a flu shot. Consider FluCellVax Quad and help protect yourself from the flu. It's the first cell-based flu vaccine authorized in Canada for ages six months and older, and it may be available for free in your province. Side effects and allergic reactions can occur, and 100% protection is not guaranteed. Learn more at flucellvax.ca. The U.S. response has lacked long-term thinking in a war that will not end soon, the board said. A prime example is Washington's resistance to preparing Ukraine's air force to fly advanced U.S. fighter jets, a component of defense strategy it will surely need.

Starting point is 00:13:05 Supplying Kiev with U.S.-made F-16s, top-notch fighter jets used for decades by military pilots in this country as well as a number of NATO nations, would take time, well over a year given the intensive training needed not only for aviators but also for mechanics and other logistical personnel. It is time to start. Without U.S. support, nothing is likely to happen. That's been the pattern since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion, and it is exactly what happened with the top-of-the-line battle tanks. It was only Mr. Biden's decision in January to supply U.S.-made M1 Abrams tanks that ended foot-dragging by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. The West has to think in terms of years, and dithering over

Starting point is 00:13:45 the weapons for Ukraine is likely to translate into stalemate which serves Russian President Vladimir Putin's interests. In World Socialist's website, Andrei Damon said that this announcement is the latest proof the war is spinning out of control. To an even greater degree than the M1 Abrams battle tank, sending F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine would involve the deployment of logistical infrastructure and supply lines into Ukraine from NATO countries, likely including the deployment of American civilian contractors to help maintain these sophisticated systems, Damon wrote. The recent decision is in flagrant defiance of multiple explicit promises made by the Biden administration that it is seeking to avoid an escalation of a full-scale war with nuclear-armed Russia. Now, the U.S. has crossed the last of these self-proclaimed red lines, despite the fact an expanded involvement of our role in the war is

Starting point is 00:14:36 supported by just one in five Americans. It is for this reason that the Biden administration has systematically lied about its plans to escalate the war and sought to cloak its long-planned escalatory measures as improvised responses to public pressure from its NATO allies and members of Congress, Damon wrote. All right, that is it for the left and the right are saying, which brings us to my take. So a few weeks ago, I wrote about the need to stop holding Ukraine to ridiculous standards. In that context, I'd like to reiterate that there is nothing wrong with Ukraine's president pressuring NATO allies to provide Ukraine with F-16s. Similarly, there's nothing wrong with the U.S. and its allies thinking about how to provide them in the most efficient way possible.

Starting point is 00:15:25 The best criticism of our decision-making process is the one largely lobbed by the right. If we were going to do this, why didn't we do it a year ago? One good answer to that question is that the risks seem much, much lower now. Russia has threatened escalation and promised doom and gloom over and over, wailing any U.S. involvement will cross some perceived red line on military support. Remember when the M1A1 tanks were an extremely dangerous decision that would take the conflict to a whole new level of confrontation? Remember when the rocket launchers risked widening the conflict? Remember when Russia said providing

Starting point is 00:16:01 Patriot air defense systems would entail possible consequences and effectively make U.S. a part of the war? Each one of these warnings was interpreted by some as threats of retaliation against U.S. shipments or even threats of nuclear war, and each got people in the U.S. insisting we must not escalate. Then, each warning resulted in essentially no new escalations or consequences from Russia. As I've written before, the threats Russia makes should be taken about as seriously as their state media. What we need to be watching are escalatory actions, the movements of their military or nuclear programs. So, any criticism of this move has to consider the relative risk. Maybe a year ago, we wouldn't have considered sending fighter jets to Ukraine because we didn't know the risk. But now, we can be confident that the risk is very low. Russia hasn't managed to win this war against an overpowered Ukraine. The last thing it could

Starting point is 00:16:54 afford is to involve another party, and it's hard to believe it has the power or resources to make good on its threats of revenge against this kind of support. The more interesting and pertinent question is just how much the F-16s will help. I have zero military experience, so I'm not going to sit here and pretend I know the answer. The experts seem divided on their potential impact, but it appears the jets aren't going to immediately swing the war one way or the other. It will be months at least before they're even in the sky. A better way to interpret this is probably that the U.S. is investing in long-term help and preparing Ukraine for a stage of the war that is a year away and beyond. Acknowledging that prospect is both depressing and sensible.

Starting point is 00:17:36 The F-16 fighter jets may not wing Ukraine the war this summer, but they offer another advanced measure of protection for any army in desperate need of whatever edge it can get. In that sense, given that they are a relatively abundant resource for us and our NATO allies, I think committing to the delivery makes sense. In fact, I wrote last March, over a year ago, that we should have supported the delivery of less advanced Polish fighter jets to Ukraine. At that time, it was mostly conservative columnists who believed those planes and the F-16s could have been sent, and mostly liberal columnists backing Biden's refusal.

Starting point is 00:18:10 Looking back, I think it's clear the narrative on the right has prevailed. Biden should have acted sooner, and Putin's threats were mostly bluster. Today, there seems to be little downside aside from the financial cost. Even if the ceiling on how much the jets can help is low, Ukrainian officials clearly believe they would be game-changing. Given my belief that there are so few risks on the table, I think it is the right move, even if hindsight tells us the delay was ultimately unnecessary. All right, that is it for my take, which brings us to your questions answered. This one's from Ben in Richmond, Virginia. Ben said, Hey Isaac, great newsletter. Always look

Starting point is 00:18:50 forward to reading at noon each day. Thank you, Ben. Quick question regarding what the left and right are saying. What is the significance, if any, of the many other some language at the top of those sections? For example, will you only use many if you find at least X sources saying something? So this is actually a great question, one I have not gotten before. I'll be frank that I don't actually have a particularly well-defined science to that language, so maybe I need to be more careful with how I use it there. Still, my hope is basically to try and indicate the prevalence or ubiquitousness of certain arguments and the countervailing nature of others. Today's newsletter is instructive.

Starting point is 00:19:31 You can find a lot of arguments on the right, supporting Biden's decision, knocking it for being too late, or criticizing it as escalatory. While the plan seems to have establishment backing, there is little pushback in Congress or traditionally conservative media outlets, the rightward reaction is basically a big mishmash, so we describe it as split. Meanwhile, on the left, I struggle to find many places criticizing the choice. Most of the commentary on the left supports the decision. In many places we didn't cite, like those in the Atlantic or the Los Angeles Times, there are just more arguments fleshing out the risks, but ultimately landing on, yes, we should still send the Los Angeles Times, there are just more arguments fleshing out the risks,

Starting point is 00:20:10 but ultimately landing on, yes, we should still send the jets. However, there were still a few pockets of dissent, especially in far-left venues, hence us citing an opinion piece from the World Socialist website and saying, quote-unquote, others on the left criticized the move. So our goal is to try and show variance in opinion, not just among the left and the right, but inside the left and the right. I also want to give you an idea of how common these arguments seem in the punditry class, which is where we insert those signals like most are saying, or some are saying, or others are saying. All right, that is it for Your Questions Answered. A reminder, you can always ask a question by emailing me, Isaac, I-S-A-A-C, at readtangle.com. All right, next up is our Under the Radar section. On Friday, heavily redacted court documents were unsealed that showed the FBI improperly used a digital surveillance tool more than 278,000 times

Starting point is 00:21:02 to search for information on individuals. The document showed thousands of violations of Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, which allowed the government to spy on communications between targeted foreign individuals. FBI officials used the warrantless surveillance tool to look into people connected to racial justice protests in 2020 and the January 6th storming of the Capitol, among others. Section 702 is set to expire at the end of 2023, and the report could create challenges for Congress's effort to renew it. The FBI says that reforms it already has put into place in 2021 would address abuse of the program. The Hill has the story, and there's a link to it in today's episode description.

Starting point is 00:21:41 There's a link to it in today's episode description. All right, next up is our numbers section. The estimated number of active F-16 fighter jets in the world right now is 2,200. The number of F-16 fighter jets Ukraine says it needs is 200. The number of combat-capable aircraft Ukraine had at the beginning of the war was 120. The hours of maintenance an F-16 fighter jet needs per hour of flying time is 16. The estimated cost of revitalizing Ukraine's military with F-16 fighter jets is $11 billion, according to the Pentagon's top policy official. All right, and last but not least, our have a nice day section.

Starting point is 00:22:24 All right. And last but not least, our have a nice day section. Boston is piloting a new program to offer free digital libraries at bus stops across the city. Riders at 20 bus stops can now scan a QR code to browse and borrow audiobooks, e-books, e-newspapers and e-magazines appropriate for all ages, Boston Mayor Michelle Wu announced. Library cards are not needed and readers don't even need to download an app. The pilot program is going to run through August and is intended to give people something to do on public transportation while also offering more free resources for reading, learning, and keeping up with the news. Patrons can check out up to five titles at a time for two weeks without any cost. NBC Boston has the story and there's a link to it in today's episode description. All right, everybody, that is it for today's podcast. Like I mentioned at the top,

Starting point is 00:23:14 please don't forget to go check out our event in Philadelphia. And if you are somewhere nearby, please buy a ticket and come. Philly is a great city and we need to sell this baby out so we can keep touring the U.S. I would love to see you guys in person and I'm very much looking forward to it. We'll be right back here same time tomorrow. Have a good one. Peace. Our podcast is written by me, Isaac Saul, and edited by John Long. Our script is edited by Ari Weitzman, Bailey Saul, and Sean Brady John Long. Our script is edited by Ari Weitzman, Bailey Saul, and Sean Brady. The logo for our podcast was designed by Magdalena Bukova,

Starting point is 00:23:50 who's also our social media manager. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet75. For more on Tangle, please go to readtangle.com and check out our website. time. Based on Charles Yu's award-winning book, Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu, a background character trapped in a police procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. The flu remains a serious disease. Last season, over 102,000 influenza cases have been reported across Canada, which is nearly double the historic average of 52,000 cases. What can you do this flu season? Talk to your pharmacist or doctor about getting a flu shot. Consider FluCellVax Quad and

Starting point is 00:24:56 help protect yourself from the flu. It's the first cell-based flu vaccine authorized in Canada for ages six months and older, and it may be available for free in your province. Side effects and allergic reactions can occur and 100% protection is not guaranteed. Learn more at fluselvax.ca.

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Tangle - U.S. agrees to send Ukraine F-16 jets.

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