Tangle - Why the Virginia governor's race matters.

Episode Date: October 27, 2021

Virginia is considered a bellwether state, one that has been reliably blue in presidential elections over the last few cycles but can still tell us a lot about the mood of the country. Because its governor's races are in off-years, it is often the only major state race before the midterms and can shed light on how voters nationally might be feeling. This week, the latest polls show Democrat Terry McAuliffe and Republican Glenn Youngkin are in a dead heat at about 45% each, with around 5% of voters still undecided (the election is Tuesday, November 2).Our newsletter is written by Isaac Saul, edited by Bailey Saul, Sean Brady, Ari Weitzman, and produced in conjunction with Tangle’s social media manager Magdalena Bokowa, who also created our logo.The podcast is edited by Trevor Eichhorn, and music for the podcast was produced by Diet 75.You can support our podcast by clicking here.--- Send in a voice message: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/tanglenews/message Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The flu remains a serious disease. Last season, over 102,000 influenza cases have been reported across Canada, which is nearly double the historic average of 52,000 cases. What can you do this flu season? Talk to your pharmacist or doctor about getting a flu shot. Consider FluCellVax Quad and help protect yourself from the flu. It's the first cell-based flu vaccine authorized in Canada for ages 6 months and older, and it may be available for free in your province. Side effects and allergic reactions can occur, and 100% protection is not guaranteed. Learn more at flucellvax.ca. From executive producer Isaac Saul, this is Tangle.

Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening, and welcome to the Tangle Podcast, the place where you get views from across the political spectrum, some independent thinking without all that hysterical nonsense you find everywhere else. I am your host, Isaac Saul, and on today's episode we are going to be talking about the race in Virginia for the governor's seat. It's getting interesting. There are a lot of through lines there that tell us about what's happening across the country, and we're going to dive into it today. Before we do, some quick hits. First up, Senate Democrats revealed a new tax plan yesterday that will impose a minimum 15% tax on public and privately owned companies with more than $1 billion in annual profits. They also introduced a new tax on unrealized capital gains of individuals with over $1 billion in assets. Senate Democrats say the plan will help

them pay for some of their infrastructure and reconciliation bill priorities. Number two, the FCC revoked China Telecom's right to operate in the U.S. yesterday, citing national security concerns. Number three, Texas Governor Greg Abbott signed a bill banning transgender girls from participating in female sports in schools. Number four, former White House COVID-19 coordinator Dr. Deborah Birx told Congress that Trump and the White House officials were, quote, distracted from addressing COVID-19 by the 2020 election. Number five, Hertz announced it was planning to buy 100,000 electric vehicles from Tesla and followed up with the news it intended to make 50,000 of those cars available to be rented by Uber drivers. All right, that brings us to today's topic,

the Virginia governor's race. The latest polls in this race show that Democrat Terry McAuliffe and Republican Glenn Youngkin are in a dead heat at about 45% each, with around 5% of voters still undecided in the election. The vote is happening Tuesday, November 2nd. That's coming up very quickly. The reason this matters is that Virginia is considered a bellwether state, one that has been reliably blue in presidential elections over the last few cycles, but can still tell us a lot about the mood of the country. Because its governor's races are in off years, it's often the only major state race before the midterms and can shed light on how voters nationally might be feeling. Democrats have won the last two governor's races, and in 2013, McAuliffe became the first candidate of the same party in the White House to win the Virginia

gubernatorial race since 1973. Biden carried the state by 10 percentage points over Donald Trump last year, so Democrats had hoped it would be a lock, but it is not. McAuliffe is the Democrat in the race and the former governor of the state, having served from 2014 to 2018. He has done his best to make the race about former President Donald Trump, who he has repeatedly tied to Youngkin, and has spoken very little about President Biden, whose approval ratings are falling in the state. Meanwhile, Glenn Youngkin is the Republican in the race, the former CEO of the global investment giant Carlyle Group, and has no political background. Youngkin has spent $17.5 million of his own money on the race and has made his business experience central to his pitch to voters. Trump endorsed Youngkin in May, but Youngkin has kept

his distance since then, declining to appear at Trump rallies in the state while avoiding criticizing the former president and also not endorsing the election fraud narrative or otherwise tying his fate to Trump's. Some of the top issues in the race might be what you expect, things like the economy and COVID-19, but education has also come to the forefront. One of the biggest moments in the race came during the second debate when McAuliffe responded to recent school board protests by saying he wasn't, quote, going to let parents come into schools and actually take books out and make their own decision. I don't think parents should be telling schools what they should teach, end quote. That clip became a big moment in the race and Youngking quickly countered by saying

he believed parents should be the ones deciding what their kids learn in school. The clip got so much airtime that McAuliffe actually released an ad campaign trying to clarify his remarks. He has also since refocused his campaign on education, telling voters that Youngkin's economic plan would cut 43,000 teachers from the state, something he says should be a much bigger issue than critical race theory and other curriculum battles. Vaccine mandates are also a top issue in the race. Both candidates are vaccinated, but McAuliffe has endorsed mandates for teachers, students, and health care workers, and he said he'd support businesses who impose mandates. Youngkin, meanwhile, has taken the opposite tack. I've gotten the vaccine, he said. My family has gotten the vaccine. It's the best

way for people to keep themselves safe. And I, in fact, ask everyone in Virginia to please get the vaccine, but I don't think we should mandate it. The other top issue has been abortion. While there is no legislation in Virginia to change the law, McAuliffe has poured money into an ad campaign where Youngkin is seen promising to go on offense and restrict abortion in Virginia if Republicans win the statehouse. Each candidate has also tried to tie the other to their party's leader, Biden and Trump, respectively. Some wild cards to keep an eye on. The third party candidate, Princess Blanding, is a progressive who is in the Liberation Party. She's pulling in 2% of the vote right now in some polls, which is more than the margin of difference between Youngkin and McAuliffe. She's an activist and educator who is polling well among independents and young voters.

She made headlines after interrupting the second debate by entering the room and demanding she be allowed to join the stage. Blanding, who is a black woman, accused the press of racism and sexism for not giving her candidacy more attention. Also tied into the race are President Biden, former President Barack Obama, and Vice President Kamala Harris, who are all campaigning in Virginia for McAuliffe. Below, we're going to take a look at some commentary from the left and the right on the race in Virginia. All right, first up, we'll start with what the right is saying. So the right has said Virginia is a harbinger of what's to come for Democrats in the 2022 midterms and points to education as the primary issue in the race.

The Wall Street Journal editorial board said Glenn Youngkin is putting the suburbs back in play for Republicans. Suburban voters swung away from the GOP in a reaction against Mr. Trump, the board said. They kept swinging as Democrats took the House in 2018, and they swung again in 2020 to send Mr. Trump to Mar-a-Lago. Now Mr. Biden is in the White House, and he's taking his cues from progressives in Congress. They're promising to supersize taxes and government spending, even as inflation is running at its highest level in 13 years while businesses can't find workers and retailers can't stock goods. High gas prices and empty shelves do not a happy suburbia make. Mr. Youngkin, meanwhile, is no Trumpkin.

He's a Harvard MBA and a former private equity executive who wears fleece vests and talks of killing the state's 2.5% grocery tax. He caught the political wind with anger at Virginia's public schools. tax. He caught the political wind with anger at Virginia's public schools. What we've seen over the course of the last 20 months, Mr. Youngkin said in a debate, is our school systems refusing to engage with parents. The unhappiness runs from COVID-19 school closures and mass mandates to diluted admission standards at Magnet Campus to arguments about critical race theory and curriculum. In the New York Post, D. Roy Murdoch said that McAuliffe has converted parents enraged by democratic educational malpractice into the core of Youngkin's broadening base. White mothers and fathers hate critical race theory teaching their sons and daughters that they are genetic racists who must apologize for being born Caucasian, Murdoch said. Some black parents loathe CRT for deeming their children eternally oppressed by whitey and thus doomed to failure.

deeming their children eternally oppressed by Whitey and thus doomed to failure. These parents have packed the school board meetings to excorciate CRT, counterproductive masks, and vast mandates, gender studies, and more. All of this has driven parents and other voters into the streets. In the Washington Examiner, Selena Zito said McAuliffe is misreading what matters most to voters. If voters hear back Youngkin, it won't be because they woke up and decided that they love Republicans again. It will be because the Democrats have pissed them off, Zito said. Parents realized they weren't alone in their thinking that schools had become too indoctrinated in leftist cultural programs. Schools were obsessing over equity and critical race theory. They were exposing students to sexually explicit material and ramming policies down parents' throats that allowed gender-fluid

students, including at least one alleged male rapist, to use bathrooms and locker rooms based on their claimed gender identity. There were also diktats requiring teachers to refer to students by their preferred pronouns. More importantly, McAuliffe didn't get that what Biden was doing or not doing wasn't what voters had expected of him. Biden's behavior is making it impossible for the former governor to scoop up enough Republicans and independents to sail to victory as Democrats have done here for the past 20 years. All right, that is it for what the right is saying. And here's what the left is saying. The left is worried about a loss in Virginia, but believes it's more about a lack of enthusiasm on the left

and faux outrage on the right than anything else. In the New York Times, Michelle Cottle wrote about why Virginia is freaking Democrats out. Compounding concerns are findings from a series of focus groups conducted this year by the Democratic firm Lake Research Partners, targeting Democrats considered less likely to turn out at the polls. It found a couple of reasons that some Virginia women are uninspired by the political scene. Among black women, there is frustration that Democrats won't deliver for them, and so it doesn't much matter which party's candidate wins.

Among younger women, especially Latinas and white women, there is a sense that the Trump danger has passed and they can let their guard down. But if Democrats lose their sense of urgency when it comes to voting, the party is in serious trouble, she wrote. Republicans are working hard to keep their voters outraged and thus primed to turn out. They are seeking to capitalize on a difference in motivation between the parties that Mr. Trump neatly exploited in his rise to power. As is often noted, the essence of the modern Republican Party has been boiled down to own the libs. The impulse on the other side is not parallel. Democrats try to mobilize their voters with promises to enact popular policies, paid

family leave, expanded Medicare coverage, cheaper prescription drugs, universal pre-K, and so on. Democratic voters were desperate to send Mr. Trump packing, but beyond that, what many, many blue staters want isn't to own red state America so much as to return to ignoring it altogether. In The New Republic, Alex Shepard criticized Youngkin, who recently featured a mother named Laura Murphy in an advertisement about Toni Morrison's book Beloved. If you didn't know who Murphy was or what she tried to do, you would think that she had a young child who was forced to read

Fifty Shades of Grey or something out of William Burroughs' Demented Imagination, Shepard wrote. Instead, her son, who again is now in his late 20s and works as a lawyer for the Republican Party, was instructed to read Beloved, a book by Toni Morrison, a Nobel Prize winner who is arguably the greatest American novelist of the late 20th century. Sexual abuse is central to Beloved's thematic power and its investigation of trauma and American history. And in the ad, Murphy bizarrely acts as if it's titillating rather than horrific. That any Virginia lawmaker may have ever been read in the face

at encountering Morrison's prose should be disqualifying for public office, if not adulthood. This is more or less exactly what anti-cancel culture conservatives accuse liberals of doing. Because Murphy's Kid was triggered by this book, it should be banned. The argument here isn't over whether canceling exists or if it's a good idea, but what the criterion for canceling is. In this case, Murphy and Youngkin endorse a version of cancel culture that removes works that depict rape and slavery and are critical of American history. It's not a fight over freedom, in other words, but one about control. Youngkin says he wants to ban critical

race theory if elected, but this ad gives away the game. Critical race theory means books by black authors. Far from giving parents autonomy, he's treading on it, determining by fiat over the objections of parents and school boards alike what children can and cannot be taught. of parents and school boards alike what children can and cannot be taught. Consider FluCellVax Quad and help protect yourself from the flu. It's the first cell-based flu vaccine authorized in Canada for ages six months and older, and it may be available for free in your province. Side effects and allergic reactions can occur, and 100% protection is not guaranteed. Learn more at FluCellVax.ca. In the Washington Post, Greg Sargent noted that McAuliffe has made paid leave central to his campaign something that not enough people are talking about.

This matters for many reasons, Sargent wrote. First, as Democrats in Washington negotiate the Build Back Better reconciliation bill, it looks as though the plans paid sick family and medical leave provisions may be downsized dramatically, from 12 to 4 weeks, to meet centrist demands for lowering spending. This means that future action on the state and federal level will be even more necessary. After all, as Jordan Weissman points out, if the proposal shrinks, it will be badly insufficient. It will still be an outlier relative to other wealthy developed nations, and it would not meet the needs of Americans, judging by the unpaid leave they tend to take. With major 2022 gubernatorial contests looming in swing states such as Wisconsin,

Pennsylvania, and Michigan, a McCullough victory might embolden Democrats to press the issue forward in those states as well. It might also give Democrats a good issue in the congressional elections and, if they manage to hold Congress, more impetus to expand the program on the federal level in the coming years. All right, that brings me to my take. So this race is fascinating to me, and it's maybe even ironic to see education become a top issue in a nationally watched race like this. Five years ago, if you had told progressive candidates that education would be front and center topic for a Virginia governor's race, they probably would have been giddy. Better funding of public schools, increased teacher salaries, and making education a primary political issue are things Democrats have been trying to do for decades. Now it's happening,

but not on their terms. In this race, the Republican candidate is actually the one promising to raise teacher salaries, even if education groups claim his economic plan would cost teachers their jobs. I've written a lot about critical race theory in this newsletter, but I should note that the Walter Youngkin is treading in is basically my worst fears come true. As Shepard notes above, the mom he trotted out as a symbol of the suffering that parents are enduring is in the ninth year of a personal war to ban a book high school juniors and seniors read that includes depictions of rape and slavery. This is an example of precisely why I express skepticism and fear that campaigns to

ban quote critical race theory would end up sheltering students from important works rather than preventing teachers from aligning white kids as inherently evil or black students as inherently less than. The race-baiting absurdity of featuring a parent trying to prevent kids from being taught beloved is tough to overstate. But the Virginia race should be a wake-up call for Democrats nonetheless. Even though the state usually swings against the current party in the White House, for Democrats to go from plus 10 points against Trump to a dead heat in this race is seen as a sign of how quickly the tides are turning against Biden and how animated parents are about fights over education, race, and COVID-19-related mandates.

But don't be fooled. These issues are clearly potent not just on the right, but in the middle and on the left too. A lot of parents care about them. So what's going to happen? Damned if I know, polling from 2020 was better than it got credit for, but pollsters are still trying to solve for the Trump Republicans who won't answer their calls and aren't interested in sharing their political beliefs with a stranger on the phone. A dead heat could mean a decisive Yunkin victory. It could also just be noise and Democrats will see better turnout late when the press and major Democratic players start screaming about a five-alarm fire and the possibility

McAuliffe may not actually win. Remember, he had a nearly 10-point lead just a few months ago. The best read we're going to get on all this is when we get actual results, starting with exit polls and see who turns out. For now, the race in Virginia is confirming much of what we already knew. Democrats have an uphill battle in the 2022 midterms. Vaccine, the race in Virginia is confirming much of what we already knew. Democrats have an uphill battle in the 2022 midterms. Vaccine, mask mandates, and education are now top issues on the right, and the left may need to graduate from anti-Trump rhetoric to current events to fire up their own base. All right, that is it for our story of the day. And today's reader question is next. It actually somewhat ties into what's happening in Virginia right now.

This reader question came from Rosie in Houston, Texas. She said, in your Equality Act newsletter, which is something I wrote a few months back, you stated that the idea of males dressed in women's clothing walking into women's bathrooms or locker rooms just to abuse women was, quote, absurd. So I'm curious what your reaction is to the incidents in Luden County, Virginia, where a boy who sometimes identifies as a female has sexually assaulted two different girls in the women's bathroom at two different schools. And to make matters worse, the schools tried to hide it. to make matters worse, the schools tried to hide it. Does the trauma these girls endured, others potentially like them in the future, and the fact this fear is now even more deeply instilled in every woman change your mind at all? Okay, so this is a pretty heavy question. It's a really

important and difficult topic, but I just want to try and cut through some of the noise here. So I guess first I'll just start and say no, it doesn't change my mind, but there are a number of reasons for that. First, the story. So for those of you who don't know, a student was accused of sexual assault in a Loudoun County, Virginia high school. That student was then transferred from one high school to another in the same school district, I believe, where they then committed a second sexual assault. A juvenile judge has already sustained charges against the student in the first assault, which is essentially a guilty ruling.

The accuser in that case noted that the student who assaulted her was, quote, gender fluid and that the assault happened in a women's bathroom. This naturally has drawn ire from parents who say that allowing trans kids to use the bathroom of their gender identity puts their kids at risk. So a few things. First is that the Virginia state rules regarding which bathroom trans students could use was not actually in effect when the first sexual assault in this case happened. The state policy to allow trans kids to choose their bathroom was adopted in Luden County in May. The assault happened there three months before that. So the second alleged assault happened in October and did not happen in a bathroom, but in a classroom.

So even if the student is found guilty on both charges, and all the details we have about their gender identity are accurate, which I don't know for sure just because there are minors involved. It's all being held very close to the chest. The bathroom rules did not facilitate either the first assault, and since the second one wasn't even in a bathroom, they definitely didn't have anything to do with that assault. It's actually pretty remarkable to me that these very significant facts have not been more central to coverage of the event.

Second is that just because something happens once or very rarely doesn't mean it needs to be a major policy-defining concern. I never would have claimed that, you know, a trans person is never going to ever assault somebody in a bathroom of the quote-unquote opposite gender they were born into or however you want to define this. Every policy is a balance of cost-benefit. I think living in fear of an asteroid destroying all life on Earth is absurd. I would call that absurd. That doesn't mean it won't or hasn't happened.

It will and it has. Basically, every study I've ever come across shows trans kids are more likely to be victims than perpetrators of sex crimes, and they aren't more likely to commit some kind of sexual assault or violence than cis straight people. Therefore, I don't think gender-neutral or gender or gender affirming bathroom laws are putting girls at increased risk. That was basically my argument then. It is my argument now. I actually think this story exemplifies the fact that these horrific things happen even when those rules are not in place because people who are predators, like this student apparently might be, are just going to do these kinds of things. Basically,

the story in Luton County is mortifying and the school's actions could be criminal, but the contours of the story don't change for me based on the fact that the perpetrator is gender fluid or trans or whatever this student might be. If any student of any gender identity sexually assaulted another student and a district tried to just transfer that student to a new school without telling kids or parents, all hell should and would break loose. But the idea that Virginia's bathroom rules facilitated this assault is just simply not true. Again, the bathroom rules weren't in place during the first assault,

and in the second assault, it allegedly happened in a classroom. So, really difficult story, but no, I don't think it changes my position in any way from what I wrote previously. All right, that will bring us to our story that matters for the day. Another important, difficult story and one that I think people are going to have their eyes on going forward. A new study just came out that chemicals which have been linked to reproductive issues and learning disabilities in children have been found in a variety of popular fast food items, according to a new report. George Washington University researchers said they purchased 64 fast food items from national burger chains McDonald's and Burger King, pizza chains like Pizza Hut and

Domino's, and Tex-Mex chains like Pizza Hut and Domino's, and Tex-Mex chains like Taco Bell and Chipotle all around San Antonio, Texas. The study found harmful chemicals in a majority of the samples collected. The chemicals are linked to health problems, including disruption in the endocrine system and fertility and reproductive issues,

as well as increase for learning, attention, and behavioral disorders in children. The Washington Post has a fascinating story on that today. All right, that brings us to our numbers for the day. These are related to our top story. 58 to 32 is the Republican candidate Glenn Youngkin's lead over Terry McAuliffe among men in Virginia, according to a Suffolk University poll. 59 to 33 is McAuliffe's lead among women in Virginia, according to the same poll. So pretty interesting there.

McAuliffe is polling well above with women, while Youngkin is polling well above with men, a massive gender divide. 40% is the percentage of voters who said the most important issues impacting the race were the economy and jobs. 23% said that the most important issues were education and race. 17% said the most important issue was healthcare. All right, finally, our have a nice day story. NASA scientists say they have detected signs of a planet transiting a star outside the Milky Way, which would mean they found the first ever exoplanet, one that doesn't share our galaxy. Most planets discovered by NASA have been found less than 3,000 light years from Earth.

This planet would be about 28 million light years away, meaning it would take their light 28 million years to get to us. It also means what we're seeing now is a planet and how it looked 28 million years ago. Unfortunately, researchers will have to wait a long time to know if their new method for finding an exoplanet works. They need the planet candidate to orbit in front of a binary partner, which won't happen for another 70 years, so it could take decades to confirm the observation. Alright, that is it for our podcast today. As always, if you enjoyed this, please consider going to the episode description and becoming a pledge member, supporter, donator, whatever you want to call it.

You can click a link in the episode description to do that. Also, giving us a five-star rating and spreading the word about this podcast to your friends is the best way to help us out, so do that too. Alright everybody, I will see you guys tomorrow. Our newsletter is

written by Isaac Saul, edited by Bailey Saul, Sean Brady, Ari Weitzman, and produced in conjunction with Tangle's social media manager, Magdalena Bokova, who also helped create our logo. The podcast is edited by Trevor Eichhorn, and music for the podcast was produced by Diet75. For more from Tangle, subscribe to our newsletter or check out our content archives at www.readtangle.com. Thank you. to your pharmacist or doctor about getting a flu shot. Consider FluCellVax Quad and help protect yourself from the flu. It's the first cell-based flu vaccine authorized in Canada for ages 6 months and older, and it may be available for free in your province. Side effects and allergic reactions can occur, and 100% protection is not guaranteed.

Learn more at FluCellVax.ca.