Tangle - Yahya Sinwar’s death

Episode Date: October 21, 2024

On Thursday, the Israeli military announced it had killed Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in an operation in southern Gaza the day prior. Sinwar was one of the primary architects of Hamas’s Oct.... 7 attack on Israel and was believed to have been hiding in Gaza’s tunnel system since the attack. Despite Sinwar’s death, both sides have resisted engaging in renewed ceasefire talks. Ad-free podcasts are here!Many listeners have been asking for an ad-free version of this podcast that they could subscribe to — and we finally launched it. You can go to tanglemedia.supercast.com to sign up!You can read today's podcast⁠ ⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠, our “Under the Radar” story ⁠here and today’s “Have a nice day” story ⁠here⁠.Check out Episode 7 of our podcast series, The Undecideds. Please give us a 5-star rating and leave a comment!Take the survey: What effect do you think Yahya Sinwar’s death will have on the peace process? Let us know!You can subscribe to Tangle by clicking here or drop something in our tip jar by clicking here. Our podcast is written by Isaac Saul and edited and engineered by Dewey Thomas. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet 75. Our newsletter is edited by Managing Editor Ari Weitzman, Will Kaback, Bailey Saul, Sean Brady, and produced in conjunction with Tangle’s social media manager Magdalena Bokowa, who also created our logo. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

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Starting point is 00:00:00 Working in the trades is intense. It can be stressful and painful. Some guys use drugs and alcohol to cope. But when we ask for help, or we see someone struggling with addiction... Our silence speaks volumes. See how you can help, or get help, at Canada.ca slash ease the burden. A message from the Government of Canada. From Searchlight Pictures comes A Real Pain, one of the most moving and funny films of the year.
Starting point is 00:00:35 Written and directed by Oscar-nominated Jesse Eisenberg and starring Eisenberg and Emmy Award winner Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain is a comedy about mismatched cousins who reunite for a tour through Poland to honor their beloved grandmother. The adventure takes a turn when the pair's old tensions resurface against the backdrop of their family history. A Real Pain was one of the buzziest titles at Sundance Film Festival this year, garnering rave reviews and acclaim from both critics and audiences alike. See A Real Pain only in theaters November 15th. Based on
Starting point is 00:01:04 Charles Yu's award-winning book. Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu, a background character trapped in a police procedural who dreams about a world
Starting point is 00:01:13 beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like
Starting point is 00:01:22 to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. From executive producer Isaac Saul, this is Tangle. Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening, and welcome to the Tangle Podcast, the place we get views from across the political spectrum, some independent thinking, and a little bit of my take. I'm your host, Isaac Saul, and on today's episode, we are going to be talking about the death of Yahya Sinwar, who was killed by Israel last week. We're going to share some perspectives about exactly what happened and what this means for the war.
Starting point is 00:02:12 Before we get into that, though, a couple of things. First of all, I screwed something up. I screwed a couple of things up. Two things, actually. two things, actually. One, in our election map that came out on Friday in my predictions, I had flipped Maine and Maine's second district. Maine splits up its electoral votes. I had Maine red. It should have been blue. I had its second district blue. It should have been red. And I flip-flopped them just in the map that was on our article. A lot of people noticed that. I didn't really talk about it on the podcast. It was not really a correction, but I did mess it up. Okay,
Starting point is 00:02:49 the second thing is that I screwed up on Friday. I did something very dumb. I tried to change the settings of something related to our paid podcast subscriptions on Friday at about six o'clock at the end of the week when everybody was logging off and I broke it. So you might've noticed that if you tried to go subscribe to our podcast over the weekend, you were not able to. I apologize for that. As penance for what I did, we released our Sunday podcast for free because I know a lot of people were trying to log on and access that podcast because I was making my election predictions. Also, you might have noticed that the audio was pretty cruddy in that podcast. And that's because Ari and I had a lot of difficulty, technically, with our microphones and our headphones.
Starting point is 00:03:38 And first, Ari's setup was screwed up. And then he logged in and out of the podcast hosting platform a couple of times. And in the midst of him doing that, my mic switched from my actual microphone to my headphones and I didn't notice. So we've recorded about an hour of the podcast with me on my headphones. So the audio isn't great. So it has been a terrible week for us over here at Tangle HQ and technical issues, but the podcast subscriptions are back up and running. So if you want to subscribe to our podcast and you tried to do that last week and you were incapable of doing that, I apologize. You can go to tanglemedia.supercast.com now and those subscriptions should be up and running. And if they aren't, please email us immediately. Staffstaff at retangle.com.
Starting point is 00:04:26 Apologies. It's Monday. It's a new week. We're back at it. The Washington Commanders won this weekend. So all is good in the world. I'm going to pass it to John for the pod and I'll be back for my take. Thanks, Isaac. and welcome, everybody.
Starting point is 00:04:46 Hope you all had a great weekend. Here are your quick hits for today. First up, the United States is investigating a leak of classified documents assessing an Israeli plan to attack Iran posted on the messaging app Telegram. Number two, seven people were killed and six were critically injured after a ferry dock partially collapsed in Sapello Island, Georgia, during a cultural festival. Separately, Cuba's power grid collapsed twice over the weekend, leaving 10 million people without power. Number three, an Israeli airstrike on the town of Beit Lahiya in northern Gaza killed 87 people, according to the Hamas-run
Starting point is 00:05:20 Gaza Health Ministry. Israel said it is investigating reports on the strike, which it says hit a Hamas-run Gaza health ministry. Israel said it is investigating reports on the strike, which it says hit a Hamas target. Separately, Israel said a drone targeted Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's house on Saturday. No one was injured, and Hezbollah is suspected of being behind the attack, though it has not claimed responsibility. Number four, Boeing machinists will vote on a new contract proposal on Wednesday that could end the union's prolonged strike. The new proposal includes 35% wage increases over four years. And number five, Elon Musk said he plans to award $1 million a day until the election to a randomly selected registered voter in a swing state who has signed his petition pledging to uphold the rights of free speech and to bear arms. As you've probably heard, Yahya Sinwar, thought to be one of the architects of the Hamas attack on Israel one year ago,
Starting point is 00:06:19 died in an airstrike in Gaza. He was Israel's most wanted, the mastermind of the October 7th attacks. But Israel's military apparently stumbled on Yahya Sinwa during a patrol in southern Gaza. Only after he was killed did soldiers realize this could be the Hamas leader, later confirmed through his DNA. On Thursday, the Israeli military announced it had killed Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in an operation in southern Gaza the day prior. Sinwar was one of the primary architects of Hamas's October 7th attack on Israel and was believed to be hiding in Gaza's tunnel system since the attack. Despite Sinwar's death, both sides have resisted engaging
Starting point is 00:07:05 in renewed ceasefire talks. Sinwar, whose family was forced from a town in north Gaza in 1948, was born in a refugee camp in 1962 in Kanyunas, Gaza, and joined Hamas's military wing when the group was founded in 1987. Two years later, he was sentenced to multiple life terms in an Israeli prison after being convicted of killing four Palestinians suspected of spying on Hamas for Israel and coordinating the abduction and killing of two Israeli soldiers. After being treated by Israeli doctors for brain cancer, he was released in a 2011 prisoner exchange and returned to Gaza, becoming Hamas' leader in Gaza in 2017. leader in Gaza in 2017. Sinwar, designated as a terrorist by the United States, was reportedly motivated to plan the October 7th attack in part by a desire to disrupt efforts to normalize relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. On Wednesday, an Israeli Defense Forces unit encountered a group of Hamas militants during a routine patrol in the southern Gaza Strip.
Starting point is 00:08:01 After exchanging fire with the militants and destroying part of a building where they had taken cover, the IDF soldiers recovered a body that bore a resemblance to Sinwar. Dental records, fingerprints, and DNA testing later confirmed his identity, and the autopsy showed Sinwar was killed by a gunshot to the head. The nature of the encounter that led to Sinwar's death surprised many in the Israeli military, who believed he was hiding underground in Gaza. Israeli officials also said the encounter was coincidental and not directed by intelligence. President Joe Biden called Zinwar's death an opportunity for a day after in Gaza without Hamas in power and for a political settlement that provides a better future for Israelis and Palestinians alike. Biden also said Hamas is no longer capable of carrying out another October 7th.
Starting point is 00:08:45 Despite renewed optimism from some Western leaders about a ceasefire deal, the two sides remain at an impasse. On Thursday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that while Sinwar's death achieved a top military priority, our war has not yet ended. Netanyahu added that the war could end tomorrow if Hamas lays down its arms and returns to hostages taken on October 7th. Meanwhile, Hamas deputy chairman Khalil al-Hayya praised Sinwar for his leadership of the group
Starting point is 00:09:10 and vowed to fight in Gaza until Israeli forces withdraw. Hamas has not named Sinwar's successor, but al-Hayya is viewed as a leading candidate. Today, we'll share perspectives from the right, left, and Middle Eastern writers about the impact of Sinwar's death on the war, and then Isaac's take. We'll be right back after this quick break. Whether renting, renewing a mortgage, or considering buying a home, everybody has housing costs on their minds. For free tools and resources to help you manage your home finances,
Starting point is 00:09:51 visit Canada.ca slash ItPaysToKnow. A message from the Government of Canada. From Searchlight Pictures comes A Real Pain, one of the most moving and funny films of the year. Written and directed by Oscar-nominated Jesse Eisenberg and starring Eisenberg and Emmy Award winner Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain is a comedy about mismatched cousins who reunite for a tour through Poland to honor their beloved grandmother. The adventure takes a turn when the pair's old tensions resurface against the backdrop of their family history.
Starting point is 00:10:20 A Real Pain was one of the buzziest titles at Sundance Film Festival this year, garnering rave reviews and acclaim from both critics and audiences alike. See A Real Pain only in theaters November 15th. Alright, first up, let's start with what the right is saying. The right views Sinwar's death as a major victory for Israel that validates their strategy in the war. Some say his death shows Hamas is in disarray. National Review's editors called Sinwar's death justice in Gaza.
Starting point is 00:10:53 The killing of Sinwar is a major victory for Israel, both operationally and symbolically. As long as Sinwar was alive and defiantly leading Hamas, it was difficult for Israel to view its costly war in Gaza as a success, the editors wrote. His death follows a string of major successes by Israel, the killing of Hamas's political leader Ismail Haniyeh, of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, and dozens of other high-ranking leaders of both terrorist groups. Coupled with the overall campaign, Israel has dealt a significant blow to the proxies of Iran as it contemplates retaliatory steps against Iran
Starting point is 00:11:25 itself. The news also serves as a severe indictment of the judgment of President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris, who spent months warning Israel against an invasion of Rafah, where Sinwar was killed, the editor said. While the usual suspects are now using Sinwar's death as yet another way to pressure Israel into immediately ending the war. The job in Gaza will not be done as long as the roughly 100 hostages, both alive and dead, remain in captivity and Hamas is still in control of the territory in a position to rebuild. In Newsweek, John Spencer wrote about what Yahya Sinwar's death revealed about Hamas's waning capabilities. Like the death of Osama bin Laden 10 years after 9-11, Sinwar's death gives strategic closure to many people in Israel. Sinwar was the mastermind and
Starting point is 00:12:10 commander of the deadliest massacre against Jews since the Holocaust, and the atrocities of October 7th caused a deep psychological trauma for Jews, along with the loss of personal security that will be felt for a long time, Spencer said. But there's also poetic justice in the facts surrounding who killed Sinwar, when, and where. Sinwar was not killed by Israeli special forces acting on information collected by their elite intelligence organizations. He was killed by regular Israeli soldiers with tanks from the IDF's Gaza division.
Starting point is 00:12:38 The details of Sinwar's death also tell us a lot about the state of Hamas. Much like when U.S. forces discovered Saddam Hussein cowering in a hole, the myth about Sinwar has been busted. He was not found looking defiant and capable. Surrounded by an elite bodyguard force in one of the luxury bunkers discovered in areas of Gaza like Han Yunus, Sinwar was killed looking desperate, dirty, and disheveled, living in fear, Spencer wrote.
Starting point is 00:13:02 This could be the beginning of the end, though there is still a lot that must happen. If Hamas refuses to let the remaining 101 hostages go, the war will continue. If Hamas still has the guns and coercive power to include primary control of humanitarian aid distribution in Gaza, the war will continue.
Starting point is 00:13:18 If Hamas believes they can survive as political or military power in Gaza, the war will continue. Alright, that is it for what the right is saying, which brings us to what the left is saying. The left hopes Senwar's death can bring about an end to the war in Gaza. Some say his death is unlikely to change the war's trajectory, given the leader's motivations on each side. In the New York Times, Matthew Dust said, Sinwar's death can end this war. While Mr. Sinwar was far from alone in resisting an agreement,
Starting point is 00:14:00 Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel has repeatedly and openly undermined ceasefire efforts for months. His death can and must create new momentum to end this catastrophic and steadily widening war, Duss wrote. A majority of Hamas's senior leadership now resides outside of Gaza, mostly in Doha, Qatar, making it potentially easier to strike a deal. But for such a deal to be durable, it would need to really end the war, not simply start a new chapter of an Israeli military presence in Gaza. If Mr. Sinwar truly was the obstacle to a ceasefire agreement that U.S. officials, including President Biden, have claimed, that obstacle is now gone.
Starting point is 00:14:31 The United States and its partners now have a window to halt the downward spiral to regional conflagration. The Biden administration must press the Netanyahu government and remaining Hamas officials to end the war in Gaza, return hostages to their families, surge humanitarian aid into the territory, and urgently take other steps to ensure that Gazans have adequate shelter, supplies, and
Starting point is 00:14:50 security as winter approaches. In the Atlantic, Husseini Bish wrote, Sinwar's death changes nothing. Sinwar's death offers a golden opportunity for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to declare victory and begin pulling troops out of Gaza. But this is not going to happen. Most likely, nothing will change. Because neither Netanyahu nor Hamas wanted to, Ibis said. Netanyahu's calculation is no mystery. Should he leave political office, he faces a criminal corruption trial and probable inquiry into the security meltdown on October 7th. He apparently concluded that the best way to stay out of prison is to stay in power, and the best way to stay in power is to keep the war going. Hamas, for its part, seems to think that it can hold out in the short term and gain in the long term. An insurgency requires little sophistication by way of organizational structure or weaponry, only
Starting point is 00:15:40 automatic rifles, crude IEDs, and fighters who are prepared to die, Ibi Shrut. The Hamas insurgency was gaining momentum before Sinmar's death, and Israel was poised to impose a draconian siege on northern Gaza in response. Nothing suggests that Israeli leaders are closer to recognizing what a counterinsurgency campaign will really entail, and that such efforts tend to become quagmires, because they don't usually yield a decisive victory, and withdrawing without one will look like capitulation, whether it happens now or in several years. All right, that is it for what the left and the right are saying, which brings us to what writers
Starting point is 00:16:14 in the Middle East are saying. Israeli writers praise the IDF for its success in eliminating Hamas's leadership, but say now is the time to secure a deal to bring the hostages home. Writers in the Arab world say Simar's death will galvanize Hamas in the long run. The Jerusalem Post editorial board said the day after the Israel-Hamas war is now. Putting aside for now the question of how to react to the fall of our enemies, Israel and its leadership are faced with an even bigger, more pressing question. What to do next? What is the day after plan, the board wrote. This is a golden opportunity to use the pressure of the leadership vacuum in Gaza to secure a deal,
Starting point is 00:16:50 but it will have to include a diplomatic solution. Israel must use this opportunity to establish a stable governing force in Gaza, whether it's Palestinian-led, backed by moderate Arab allies, or both. This kind of looking forward approach must be part of the conversation. In May, when the IDF began its invasion of Rafah, the resistance was massive. Yet it was where Sinwar was killed and what IDF chief spokesman Daniel Hagari said Saturday night was the defense establishment's prediction that he was wandering between Khan Yunus and Rafah to survive, the board said. The IDF must be able to do what it needs. It knows what it is doing and is doing so methodically. Everyone opposed the invasion back then, but it brought results.
Starting point is 00:17:28 Now is the time to push the diplomatic pedal. Military might won't be enough, and it never is. In the Middle East Eye, Azam Tamimi wrote, Yahya Sinmar died fighting Israel. His death will not defeat Hamas. Although the killing of Sinmar will be seen as another major blow to Hamas, it is highly unlikely that this will affect its long-term strategy. Israel succeeded many times before in almost decapitating the movement, yet it has not managed to weaken its resolve,
Starting point is 00:17:54 let alone crush it, Tamimi said. The resilience of the movement derives from two factors. First, Hamas stands for an idea, and the idea is that the Palestinians once had a homeland that was taken away from them to make way for the creation of a Jewish homeland, deemed a century ago to be the perfect solution to Europe's Jewish problem. The second factor is that Hamas is an institutional movement with an elected leadership. It has no personality cult, and leaders who perish are immediately and smoothly replaced, Tamimi added. Finally, despite the loss, martyrdom has always been a powerful recruitment tool. In Palestinian, as in Islamic culture, martyrdom is not a loss, but a gain. Sinwar,
Starting point is 00:18:31 like all his predecessors who were assassinated by Israel, will be celebrated by many as a great martyr who perished fighting invaders. All right, let's head over to Isaac for his take. All right, that is it for it with the left and the right are saying and some views from abroad, which brings us to my take. Since March, I've been making the argument for a ceasefire in Gaza. I have shared the best arguments that I was wrong to do that. I have written pieces about the realities on the ground that we need to grapple with if we are going to continue supporting this war. And I've shared your responses to those arguments.
Starting point is 00:19:18 So I think it's worth acknowledging the elephant in the room here. If Israel's war cabinet had done what I suggested, they probably never would have killed Yahya Sinwar or Ismail Haniya or Hassan Nasrallah or Mohammed Deef. If Deef has actually been killed, Hamas is still not confirming his death. I think a lot of people who disagreed with me would argue that these deaths are the crowning achievements of Israel's war, and they show precisely why I was wrong to advocate for a ceasefire. Sinwar wasn't just loathed and feared by Israelis, but by many Palestinians, too. He earned the name Butcher of Khan Yunus for killing Palestinians,
Starting point is 00:19:59 he suspected of collaborating with Israel, and it is likely he only became a quote-unquote leader in Hamas by killing internal opposition. It was an odd thing to see some American leftists on Twitter idolizing Sinwar's iconic death while simultaneously seeing Palestinians quoted in Israeli or U.S. newspapers celebrating the fact he was gone. Saying Sinwar was an impediment to peace in Israel and Gaza would be like saying Vladimir Putin is not an ally of Ukraine. As much as I've criticized Netanyahu's decisions, it's still true that Sinwar knowingly and willfully invited violence upon the Palestinian people and for most of the last year avoided that violence himself. He humiliated us, started the war, scattered us, and made us displaced without water, food, or money, one Palestinian told the New York Times.
Starting point is 00:20:49 He is the one who made Israel do this. Another said to Haaretz, They controlled everything, Sinwar especially. There are people in Gaza who are glad that he died and hope that the war will end and that this will be the end of Hamas in Gaza, but they don't express this openly for fear of retaliation, end quote. These perspectives are not hard to find in Gaza on social media or in the Arabic-speaking world.
Starting point is 00:21:12 But of course, they in no way represent all of Gaza or even the majority of Gazans. Many Palestinians idolize Sinwar as a brave freedom fighter. His death, what he represents and what it means, will only truly be understood with more time. An optimistic way to look at Sinwar's death is that Hamas's leadership has now effectively been decapitated. Israel is winning the war in the traditional sense that wars are won. They're killing the enemy's leadership and exercising enough force across Gaza and the region that their enemy's military capabilities will take years to rebuild.
Starting point is 00:21:43 their enemy's military capabilities will take years to rebuild. This is the clearest and most straightforward argument that the war was and remains worth the immense cost and could open the door to a new era. Perhaps with Sinwar gone and Hamas stabilitated, whatever future is left for Palestinians in Gaza can begin to come to fruition, and Israel can participate in the process knowing it is far safer than it was a year ago. However, my pessimistic voice it was a year ago. However, my pessimistic voice is still a bit louder. Remember, this cycle is not new.
Starting point is 00:22:14 Israel has assassinated so many Hamas leaders that it's hard to keep count. New leaders replace the old ones, and the organization lives on. In the past, these killings were not part of a full-court press to topple Hamas as an organization, so one could argue that this time might be different, but there's no reason to believe the current power vacuum will not also be filled. Just look at how quickly the brief glimmer of hope that Sinwar's death could lead to a final hostage deal and the end of the war faded with both sides promising to fight on and speculation about Sinwar's replacement quickly spreading. A few readers and listeners wrote in to me to ask if I would give Netanyahu credit for this. My answer unambiguously is, of course not. Netanyahu is the same leader who released Sinwar from prison. Netanyahu encouraged Qatar to fund Hamas,
Starting point is 00:22:58 emboldening and sustaining the organization. Netanyahu trusted Sinwar. He helped Hamas become what it is today, and he helped it secure its power in the Gaza Strip. He apparently trusted Sinwar so much or was so distracted by his own legal troubles that October 7th happened in the first place. Netanyahu has failed to get the hostages home. The IDF was only able to kill Sinwar after a year of devastating blunt force violence across the entire Gaza Strip, and now it appears to be settling in for long-term insurgency. The hostages are still hostages, and the war rages on,
Starting point is 00:23:31 having spread to seven fronts, as Netanyahu himself says. Even now, with all the talk of how much Sinwar's death will deter future attacks on Israel, the latest from the ground is that Hezbollah is sending drones to Netanyahu's home
Starting point is 00:23:45 while we all wait for another expected Israeli attack on Iran. Times are as dangerous and unsettled as they have ever been with or without Sinwar. So no, I don't give him credit for killing a leader he supported in order to topple an organization that his policies helped embolden. I credit Netanyahu with a failed strategy to fund Hamas, a massive national security failure that allowed October 7th, and the failures of war and diplomacy that have put Israel in the position it is in now. That is what I give him credit for. Now, I acknowledge that Sinwar's death is of course a positive development for the future of this conflict, though I have a long-stated policy of not celebrating anyone's death or dancing on their grave once they are gone. It's a personal thing, something that just feels gross to me in nearly
Starting point is 00:24:29 all circumstances. Yet at the same time, Sinwar's death should not be valorized. He is not a martyr for any great cause. He is a failed, corrupt, maniacal leader who brought untold horror to the Gazan people and Palestinians writ large, who set any potential peace process back for generations and who invited this war against Palestinians because he didn't want Israel to step into the future as allies of Saudi Arabia and other Arab nations. He was willing to sacrifice his people's lives for that. Yes, this is an opening for a new path forward,
Starting point is 00:25:01 but that is true only if the moment is seized, not just by Israel, but by the remaining leaders of Hamas who must realize that their only new path forward. But that is true only if the moment is seized, not just by Israel, but by the remaining leaders of Hamas, who must realize that their only true path forward is to release the remaining hostages or their bodies and put their arms down. Yet, we have no signs that Hamas is going to take that first step, which means the ball is once again in Israel's court and the United States'. Another door is open to end the war and begin whatever comes after this. Generations of reconciliation, a rebuild in Gaza,
Starting point is 00:25:29 and diplomatic advances across the region and the Arab world. It's unclear to me how many more opportunities we'll get, but I don't suspect there will be many. We'll be right back after this quick break. Working in the trades is intense. It can be stressful and painful. Some guys use drugs and alcohol to cope.
Starting point is 00:25:58 But when we ask for help, or we see someone struggling with addiction, our silence speaks volumes. See how you can help, or get help, at Canada.ca slash ease the burden. A message from the Government of Canada. From Searchlight Pictures comes A Real Pain, one of the most moving and funny films of the year. Written and directed by Oscar-nominated Jesse Eisenberg and starring Eisenberg and Emmy Award winner
Starting point is 00:26:29 Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain is a comedy about mismatched cousins who reunite for a tour through Poland to honor their beloved grandmother. The adventure takes a turn when the pair's old tensions resurface against the backdrop of their family history. A Real Pain was one of the buzziest titles at Sundance Film Festival this year, garnering rave reviews and acclaim from both critics and audiences alike. See A Real Pain only in theaters November 15th. Based on Charles Yu's award-winning book, Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu, a background character trapped in a police procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes
Starting point is 00:27:05 a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. All right, next up in our listener question today, this one from Nate in California. Nate said, are polls showing a false red wave like they did in 2022? Well, for starters, I don't think any polls are showing a red wave. At best, they're showing a very close election with a slight Republican advantage. This is different from 2022. Last month, we published a Friday edition about how to read polls, how to look into crosstabs, what kind of context and information voters are reacting to, and how polls are constructed. One of the things
Starting point is 00:27:55 we got into was the difference between polling and forecasting. Simply put, polls can at best show an accurate sample of the electorate in their area. What they can't do is predict who will show up on election day. Of course, every pollster wants their polling results to reflect the electorate's decisions, but it's really, really hard to construct a sample of people that accurately represents the electorate. And that is where forecasters come in. Places like Pew survey a sample of voters and put out their results, and then election forecasters will analyze them and add election fundamentals and historical trends, including
Starting point is 00:28:30 recent history, to make predictions. So when you see polls that show Republicans gaining advantages in swing states and think about 2022 midterms where Democrats beat polling expectations, forecasters are thinking the same thing. And what are the forecasters saying? Nate Silver forecasts a 53% chance of Trump winning. FiveThirtyEight forecasts a 53% chance of Trump winning. I'm not a professional forecaster, but I predicted a narrow Trump victory based on what we know today. But that doesn't mean all forecasters are making the same interpretation. Legendary election forecaster Alan Lichtman thinks Harris will win. Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg
Starting point is 00:29:08 thinks the polling averages are skewed. And Logan Phillips, another successful and knowledgeable pollster, gives Harris a 53% chance. Lastly, the polls this year don't show the same Republican advantage as they did in 2022. This race is extremely close, both at the presidential level and in key House and Senate
Starting point is 00:29:26 races, and I think it is a coin flip race with a slight advantage for Republicans. All right, that is it for your listener question today. I'm going to send it back to John for the rest of the pod, and I'll see you guys tomorrow. Peace. Thanks, Isaac. Here's your under the radar story for today, folks. Last week, the Federal Trade Commission announced a new rule aimed at helping consumers cancel unwanted subscriptions. The click-to-cancel rule will require companies to make canceling a subscription or service as easy as signing up for one, as well as mandating that sellers provide important information to consumers before obtaining their billing information and charging them. For example, any online subscription sign-up must be cancelable within a single click, while an in-person signup must be cancelable either online or by phone. Too often, businesses make people jump through endless hoops just to cancel
Starting point is 00:30:14 a subscription. The FTC's rules will end these tricks and traps, FTC Chair Lena Kahn said. Axios has this story, and there's a link in today's episode description. story, and there's a link in today's episode description. All right, next up is our numbers section. The number of years Yahya Sinwar spent in an Israeli prison before his release in a 2011 prisoner swap is 22. The percentage of Palestinians in the West Bank who said they were satisfied with Sinwar's performance managing the war in Gaza was 70%, according to a September 2024 poll by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research. The percentage of Palestinians in the West Bank who said they were satisfied with Senwar's performance in June 2024 was 76%.
Starting point is 00:30:54 The percentage of Palestinians in Gaza who said they were satisfied with Senwar's performance in September 2024 was 29%. The percentage of Palestinians in Gaza who said they were satisfied with Senwar's performance in June 2024 was 50%. The number of Hamas leaders believed to have been killed by Israel in the past year, including Senwar, is nine. And the number of hostages being held in Gaza, including four people taken hostage in 2014 and 2015, is 101, according to Israeli estimates. And last but not least, our Have a Nice Day story. About 660,000 new cases of cervical cancer are reported in women globally each year,
Starting point is 00:31:33 according to the World Health Organization. A recent study led by University College London looked to see if a short course of induction chemotherapy prior to chemoradiation could prove more effective than other treatment methods. The study, as measured by a trial of 500 women, resulted in a 40% reduction in the risk of death. I've been cancer-free for over nine years now, said Abby Halls, one woman who received the treatment. I hope this research is going to save the lives of many more women in the years to come. The Guardian has this story, and there's a link in today's episode description. All right, everybody, that is it for today's
Starting point is 00:32:10 episode. As always, if you'd like to support our work, please go to retangle.com and sign up for our membership. We'll be right back here tomorrow. For Isaac and the rest of the crew, this is John Law signing off. Have a great day, y'all. Peace. The music for the podcast was produced by Diet 75. And if you're looking for more from Tangle, please go check out our website at readtangle.com. That's readtangle.com.

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