Tangle - Yevgeny Prigozhin's death.

Episode Date: August 28, 2023

Yevgeny Prigozhin's death. On Sunday, Russian authorities confirmed the death of Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin, who was on the passenger list of a plane that crashed in Russia on Wednesday. Foreign news agencies had struggled to confirm that he was on the plane and that all passengers aboard it had been killed, but those questions now appear to be resolved, after the Russian Investigative Committee performed genetic testing on 10 bodies recovered from the crash to confirm the passenger list.You can read today's podcast here, today’s Under the Radar story here, and today’s “Have a nice day” story here. You can also check out our latest YouTube video here.Today’s clickables: Quick hits (1:42), Today’s story (3:58), Right’s take (6:21), Left’s take (9:14), International takes (11:30) Isaac’s take (14:02), Listener question (18:14), Under the Radar (21:54), Numbers (23:04), Have a nice day (23:47)You can subscribe to Tangle by clicking here or drop something in our tip jar by clicking here.Our podcast is written by Isaac Saul and edited by Jon Lall. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet 75. Our newsletter is edited by Bailey Saul, Sean Brady, Ari Weitzman, and produced in conjunction with Tangle’s social media manager Magdalena Bokowa, who also created our logo.--- Send in a voice message: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/tanglenews/message Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Based on Charles Yu's award-winning book, Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu, a background character trapped in a police procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight.

Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. From executive producer Isaac Saul, this is Tangle. Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening, and welcome to the Tangle Podcast, a place we get views from across the political spectrum, some independent thinking, and a little bit of my take. I'm your host, Isaac Saul, and on today's episode, we're going to be talking about Yevgeny Pergozhin, the former chief of the Wagner mercenary Group, who died in a mysterious plane crash last week. Maybe not as mysterious as it sounds. We're going to talk about exactly what happened,

what we know, and as always, share some views from the left and the right. But today, given this story, also a couple of opinions from abroad. Before we jump in, a quick heads up about Friday, we released a subscribers-only edition in which I answered a slew of reader questions that I've received over the last couple of months. We touched on everything from the GOP debate, to America's view of teachers, to Trump's first impeachment, to my workout routine. One reader asked what I'd do differently as a debate moderator, and my answer was one of the more popular responses I've had to a reader question in a while. You can read the full edition with a link in today's

episode description, but a reminder that's a free preview. You'll be asked to become a paying member to read the whole thing if you are not yet one. All up, Republicans in the House of Representatives announced an investigation into Fannie Willis, the prosecutor in Fulton County, Georgia, alleging that her investigation is politically motivated. Number two, former President Trump returned to X, formerly known as Twitter, for the first time since being suspended over two years ago in order to post an image of his mugshot. Number three, three black shoppers were killed in a Jacksonville, Florida Dollar General store in what police are calling a racially motivated shooting. The 21-year-old shooter, who legally purchased the the weapon had been voluntarily committed to a hospital in 2017 and held for a mental examination after a domestic violence incident. He died by suicide.

Number four, three U.S. Marines and 20 others were injured after a military aircraft crash on Australia's Melville Island. Number five, former Trump chief of staff Mark Meadows will appear in court today as his legal team attempts to move his case from a state to a federal courtroom. The fate of the Russian mercenary leader who challenged Vladimir Putin in an aborted coup attempt is tonight shrouded in a level of mystery and intrigue worthy of a page-turning spy novel. According to Russia's aviation agency, Evgeny Progozhin, head of the notorious Wagner Group, is listed among the 10 people who were aboard a private jet that crashed north of Moscow today, killing all on board. The mercenary group leader who led a rebellion against Vladimir Putin is presumed dead. aboard a private jet that crashed north of Moscow today, killing all on board. The mercenary group leader who led a rebellion against Vladimir Putin is presumed dead.

According to Russian media, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Wagner group leader who led an attempted coup against Vladimir Putin, was in a plane crash north of Moscow. Video circulating online appears to show the moment the plane broke apart and fell out of the sky, killing all 10 people on board. The Kremlin is denying Russian President Vladimir Putin had anything to do with the plane crash that may have killed Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin. Preliminary U.S. intelligence assessment found an intentional explosion likely caused the plane to go down Wednesday and that Prigozhin was the likely target. On Sunday, Russian authorities confirmed the death of Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Progozhin, who was on the passenger list of a plane that crashed in

Russia on Wednesday, but foreign news agencies struggled to confirm that he was on the plane and that all passengers aboard it had been killed. Those questions now appear to be resolved after the Russian investigative committee performed genetic testing on 10 bodies recovered from the crash to confirm the passenger list. Prokhozhin, who led a group of mercenary soldiers during Russia's invasion of Ukraine, became a household name earlier this year after leading a day-long mutiny against Russian President Vladimir Putin. Prokhozhin had been an outspoken critic of Russia's military brass and in a dramatic move on June 23rd, turned his troops around and marched toward Moscow. He eventually negotiated a deal with Putin to leave Russia and move to Belarus without facing charges, an outcome that surprised the international community given Putin's low

tolerance for dissent. Putin had called Prgozhin's march treason and vowed to punish him, but ultimately appeared to let Progozhin off the hook without any serious repercussions. The timing and manner of Progozhin's death immediately raised suspicions that he was killed at the direction of Putin, while others suggest he may have escaped death or wasn't actually on the plane. Preliminary U.S. intelligence assessments determined that an internal explosion caused the plane to go down, though one official told Reuters the plane was shot down. The Kremlin called any notion it was behind the plane's crash a complete lie. Putin also said the mercenary boss was a person with a complicated fate who made some serious mistakes in life,

but he also achieves necessary results. Along with Progozhin, his second-in-command Dmitry Utkin and logistics mastermind Valery Chekolov were aboard the plane, meaning three of Wagner's most valuable leaders are now dead. The fate of the Wagner group is unknown, and military experts are questioning whether it will continue to function. Today, we're going to explore some reactions to Progozhin's death, including commentary about whether Putin was really responsible. We'll share some opinions from the right and the left, as well as some international sources, and then my take. First up, there's quite a bit of agreement from many commentators on the left and the right here in America, and as well as internationally, many of whom seem to believe that Putin was likely behind Prigozhin's death. Commentators all argue that Putin had strong motivation to kill Prigozhin,

though they disagree on whether it will be helpful for him or not. Many also agree that Putin has proven himself willing to kill dissenters and innocent people in order to maintain his stranglehold on power. First up, we'll start with what the right is saying. Many on the right view Putin as a killer and believe he was behind the plane's downing. Some suggest this is another data point in a long history of Putin and Soviet leaders killing anyone who dares to challenge them. The Washington Examiner editorial board called Putin a calculating and remorseless killer. The explosion was deemed by Western intelligence services to be an assassination by Putin. He is certainly celebrating. Claiming ridiculously that he was briefed on the explosion only a day late on Thursday,

the Russian tyrant coldly observed that Progozhin was a man of complex fate, and he made mistakes. Putin had good reason to want Progozhin dead after his attempted coup, and his continued public appearances taunted Putin. Nine other people were killed in the attack on Progozhin's airplane. While most were Wagner employees, the victims included an experienced pilot with two children, a co-pilot, and a young flight attendant, the board noted. The attack reeks of KGB willingness to destroy innocent lives in a semi-deniable killing of one target. Putin, a former lieutenant colonel in the Soviet spy agency, likes to play homage to the past in that way. It serves his purposes that his denials are recognizably skimpy. He wants it to be known that he will kill anyone who crosses him. In Fox News, Rebecca Koffler said this is straight out of Putin's blood-spilling playbook. Regardless of a specific method,

as a Russian watcher who spent my intelligence career investigating Russian intelligence tradecraft and analyzing President Vladimir Putin, my assessment is that Prigozhin's death was likely a hit job orchestrated by the Russian state. It was probably authorized by Putin himself, Koffler said. Putin called Prigozhin's brief mutiny in June treason and has always been unambiguous about treason and traitors who, in his view, deserve severe punishment. Putin has made a practice of wet affairs, a doctrine of targeted assassinations, bearing a codename that refers to the spilling of blood. Putin made the practice legal by approving a federal law that allows targeted assassinations

as punishment for very broadly defined extremist activity. Scores of Russian journalists and numerous political opposition leaders have been victims of wet affairs because they criticized Putin or the Russian regime or exposed the corruption and other misdeeds of the Russian government. All right, that is it for the rightist saying, which brings us to what the left is saying. Many on the left also believe Putin was behind the killing and say the outcome here was not surprising. Some suggest Prokofiev got the death he deserved and we should remember who he was. The U.S. Guardian editorial board called it one of the least surprising developments of the war in the last 18 months. Though he denounced military leaders rather than his patron, the challenge to Vladimir

Putin was unprecedented and the Russian president called him a traitor. That the mutiny was not decisively suppressed but ended with a deal looked more humiliating, the board said. Even if the crash did have another cause, the assumption that it was retaliation is in the Kremlin's interest. While Russia's nationalist right saw Prokhorin as one of their own, even many in their ranks saw the mutiny as a step too far. There is a long roll call of Putin enemies who have met conspicuous demises, but while the crash strengthens the Russian president's grip, it also underlines the serial failures of his invasion of Ukraine, the board said. Prokhorin's death is unlikely to make much difference on the battlefield, given that Wagner fighters have already withdrawn, and it may have silenced widespread anger with the top brass,

but it hasn't ended it. In The Independent, Chris Stevenson said Progozhin got the death he deserved. As the speculation swirls about the end of Progozhin and the embarrassment that Putin could not let stand, it can be easy to brush past the terrible things Prokofiev's mercenaries are believed to have done. Let's get this straight. Prokofiev deserved the end that all signs point to him having met, Stevenson said. Prokofiev led troops in Bakhmut, where some of the dirtiest fighting in this bloody war took place. The mercenary group has been involved in Ukraine since Russia illegally annexed Crimea in 2014, and the tales of their brutality are long and oft-repeated. Prigozhin's forces have also been involved in Syria's civil war and have a presence in a number of African states. The trail of blood has followed them wherever they have been,

Stevenson said. Violence is Wagner's language. The fact that Prigozhin led his march on Moscow shows that it is all he really understands too, so a violent end would be appropriate. All right, that is it from the left and the right, which brings us to some takes from abroad. The Irish Times editorial board called it a convenient plane crash for Putin, but questioned whether it would make him stronger. Few will have any doubt that the Russian president was responsible for the downing of the aircraft, which has also conveniently wiped out the high command of Wagner, the board said. The Russian president has serious form. Eliminating opponents at home and abroad is more convenient than the complicated hassle of a trial and the

expense of prolonged imprisonment. Above all, it inspires fear in those who might also be tempted to take him on. Yet the assassination, if it was that, is not a sign of strength. It may temporarily consolidate Putin's own position, but not that of the state itself, unable to manage criticism and correct failings in its dysfunctional apparatus. Putin looks increasingly isolated, dependent on a sycophantic, corrupt entourage. Shooting the messenger is a recipe for endless denialism and decay. It will certainly do nothing to correct the deficiencies in the Ukraine camp, to which Progozhin pointed. It will also reinforce the growing perception of the Russian leadership's indifference to mounting body counts, the board said. Based on Charles Yu's award-winning book, Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu,

a background character trapped in a police procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. In the New York Times, Tatiana Stanovaia said Putin had every reason to want Prigozhin dead. Whatever the truth, it's clear that Mr. Putin had ample reason to wish for Mr. Prigozhin's demise, and not just as a matter of rehabilitating his reputation. Mr. Putin believes fervently in a powerful state. Western audiences often downplay this fundamental conviction, emphasizing instead

Mr. Putin's personal interests and individual priorities, Stanovaia wrote. It's true, of course, that there's a large dose of self-interest in the president's conduct, but one of Mr. Putin's gravest nightmares is the state becoming vulnerable, unable to address domestic challenges, and on the brink of disintegration. That's precisely what Mr. Prigozhin threatened. For that transgression, he may have paid with his life. It was a humiliating blow to Mr. Putin's regime, Stanovaya added. The pain came less from the betrayal of Mr. Prigozhin, who had always been erratic, than from Mr. Putin's personal responsibility for the disaster. On the state's dime, the president had nurtured an entity that he didn't keep in check.

The mutiny, following Mr. Putin's inability to manage the escalating tensions between the defense ministry and Wagner, was a direct result of this fundamental failure. The political toll was considerable. All right, that is it for the left, right, and some international commentators are saying, which brings us to my take. So I suppose there is a world in which the plane-carrying Prigozhin and his most important military allies just coincidentally blew up over Russia. There's enough data out there to explore this possibility. Aviation accidents are typically measured in the number of accidents per 100,000 flight hours. The odds of a private plane accident are about 1 in 100,000 hours, and more than four-fifths of those accidents do not end in the loss of life. The odds of a commercial plane crash is about 1 in 16.7 million flights. Aviation databases didn't

have much information on the odds of a large private plane spontaneously combusting in mid-air, killing everyone on board, but I presume it is much less frequent than either of those outcomes. So, is it possible this was just an accident? Sure, it's possible. Is it remotely likely? No, it is not. And I suppose there are other potential culprits. Maybe Ukraine wanted Prokosian dead. Maybe the United States did. Maybe one of his other numerous enemies did. But that's pure conjecture with unknown motivations and unknown means. I sincerely doubt any of them reached this far into Russia with this well-orchestrated of an assassination

to kill Prigozhin, especially when we know of one person who had the most obvious motivation and means to pull it off. Rather, I think this entire episode is a good reminder of who we are dealing with. Many U.S. critics on the right and the left like to equate Russia's brutality with America's. Many leftist critics enjoy equating the U.S. to Russia, categorizing our own militarism as international bullying and suggesting we have more blood on our hands than any other country on the planet. Meanwhile, the new right is increasingly open to praising Putin as a genius or suggesting he was justified in invading Ukraine, that we should stay out of the war, that Ukraine is corrupt and deserves this, and wishing openly that the American military conducted itself more like

Russia's strong-arm leader. Like most commentary, there are kernels of truth in these criticisms, but Putin is keen on reminding us what makes him different. Journalists in the United States don't mysteriously fall from buildings when they break a devastating story about a president. When a new up-and-coming anti-establishment candidate runs for office, they don't end up in jail for decades. And military generals don't die in blown-up planes for public criticism of the armed forces or attempted mutiny, though they very well may see a trial. Fundamentally, this kind of rule is what the Ukrainian people want to avoid. This is the person they don't want to be their president. This is why they are fighting. This is why if you view the proliferation of more leaders like Vladimir Putin as a threat to the Western

world and Europe, it's worth standing up to him. In the short term, I suppose Putin's apparent decision to assassinate Prigozhin will consolidate his power, but in the long term, it has just as good of a chance of fomenting more coups. In the Moscow Times, Ivan Fomin made a strong case that Putin has failed to neutralize Prigozhinism in the minds of Russian people, and that Prigozhin's criticisms of Putin, Russian military leaders, and the war will persist. I think this is right. He has been martyred, and while Putin may be safer from another mutiny for now, the seeds of doubt about his rule in this war have been planted, and this killing will only memorialize them for generations to come. Of course, many supporters

of Prigozhin want Putin to be more brutal and more unrelenting in Ukraine, which is not an outcome any of us should root for. Rather, it's a reminder that Putin may not enjoy the unbridled love and support of his people in the way he may have before he decided to invade Ukraine. Prigozhin is dead, as are some key Wagner leaders. Their future is uncertain, but I don't think there are many questions about who was behind this killing. Will it have a big impact on the war? Probably not, but it may have an impact on Putin's future, and it's a stark reminder for the world at how leaders like Putin stay in power and what they are willing to do while desperately clinging to it. All right, that is it for my take, which brings us to your questions answered. This one's from Michael in Fishkill, New York. Michael said,

there's a lot of talk, and I believe you mentioned it, that if Republicans win the White House in 2024, as well as have control of Congress, they'll try for a ban on abortion at the federal level. How likely is it that they'd be able to get it done? Would they only need a slim majority in the House and Senate? And if they were able to do it, would it be constitutional? Would abortion protection laws like we have in New York be struck down? I guess what I'm asking is, for pro-choice people like me, what is the realistic worst-case scenario? So, the possibility of Republicans instituting a federal abortion ban is actually not something I've written much about in Tangle, and it isn't even something I think is likely to happen.

In fact, I consider a total ban on abortion at the federal level that challenges and contradicts laws like the ones in New York so unlikely that I wouldn't even consider it as the quote-unquote pro-choice worst-case scenario. First, there's public opinion. According to Gallup, only 13% of people oppose abortion in all cases. 34% think abortion should be legal in all cases, another 13% say it should be legal in most, and 36% say it should be legal in only some. According to NBC, 91% of Americans think abortion should be allowed if the health of the mother is at risk, including 86% of Republicans. 86% think it should be allowed in cases of rape or incest, including 76% of Republicans. Then there are the stances of Republican candidates,

which are far from consistent. DeSantis instituted a total ban on abortions after six weeks in Florida, but hasn't endorsed a similar federal ban. Scott has supported a federal 15-week ban. Ramaswamy and Haley are against abortion, but aren't endorsing federal bans. In the debates, Haley actually did a good job of speaking to how unrealistic a federal abortion ban is. Donald Trump has also been pretty noncommittal. So, if you're a pro-choice person, what is the worst case scenario for you at the federal level? Well, the Supreme Court is already leaning towards a pro-life bias, so I think that box is already checked. Next would be a Republican president, a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate, and I would say any majority in the House. At that point, Republicans could pretty much call their shot. And of the shots that they could want to call, the one I think that would represent the

pro-choice worst-case scenario is a total federal ban on any abortion after 12 weeks. That's with exceptions for cases when the health of the mother is at risk. I'm not a constitutional scholar by any means, but I think that would mean the following. First, it would obviate laws that contradict it in any state, including in states like Illinois that have a right to abortion enshrined in their state constitutions. At the very least, it would send those laws to immediate judicial challenges. Then, I would expect constitutional challenges that the law violates the 10th Amendment to start making their way through the courts, with a potential stay on the law's enforcement until the Supreme Court issues its ruling. While this court definitely means

conservative, it has proven hard to predict. Even still, I would put the odds of such a law being upheld at over 50%. All that said, I'd stress that I don't think this is a likely outcome. It's still a stretch to think we'll have a Republican president and a filibuster-proof Senate majority in 2024. And if that does happen, I think Republicans would most want to pass a 20-week ban on abortion, with exceptions for protecting the health of the mother, as well as for cases of rape or incest. for cases of rape or incest. All right, that is it for today's reader question. Remember, if you want to ask a question yourself, you can do that by emailing me, Isaac, I-S-A-A-C, at readtangle.com. Next up is our under the radar section. My hometown of Bucks County,

Pennsylvania is once again in the news as a bellwether for the 2024 race. An obscure election for county commissioner is being closely watched by politicos for clues about where Democrats and Republicans stand heading into this presidential cycle. Bucks, which is still considered one of the swingiest counties in Pennsylvania, is expected to lean wherever the state will in 2024. The local race is between two county commissioners sparring over book bans, crime, and democracy. Democrats won control of the county board of commissioners in 2019 for the first time since 1983. Now it's up for grabs again. As Pennsylvania goes, so goes the presidential race in 2024. And as Bucks County goes, Pennsylvania will go. Everyone should care deeply about this, said state senator Steve

Santisario, the chair of the Bucks County Democratic Party. Politico has the story, and there's a link to it in today's episode description. All right, and next up is our numbers section. The percentage of respondents to a survey in Russia who sympathized with Pradozhin even after his mutiny failed was 20%. The percentage of Russian respondents who are considered core supporters of the war is 22%. The number of prominent critics and enemies of Vladimir Putin he is suspected of assassinating is now 13. The number of journalists who are believed to be imprisoned in Russia for their work right now is 22. The percentage of Democrats who have a very unfavorable opinion of Russia, according to a 2022 Pew survey,

is 72%. The percentage of Republicans who have a very unfavorable opinion of Russia is 67%. All right, and last but not least, our have a nice day story. Sarah Gad has come a long way. While in medical school in 2012, she suffered a car accident and then became addicted to the opioid she was prescribed. Over the next three years, she had seven nonviolent felony drug convictions. While incarcerated, Gad met attorney Kathleen Zellner and began working at her law firm. Gad helped exonerate a client who had been wrongfully convicted of murder and found the work to be very rewarding. After being accepted to the University of Chicago Law School, Gad found herself before a Hennepin County, Minnesota judge due to mandatory minimum

sentencing for repeat drug offenders. The judge could have sent Gad to prison, but instead let her go to law school. She's been practicing since 2022 and has run into judges who are happy to see how far she has come. Gad has transformed herself from a criminal defendant into a champion for the legally oppressed, Zellner told Fox 9. All she needed was a second chance. Fox 9 has the story and there's a link to it in today's episode description. All right, everybody, that is it for today's podcast. As always, if you want to support our work, please go to readtangle.com and become a member. And don't forget, Friday's

reader mailbag is up right now on our website at readtangle.com. And you can go check that out and subscribe to read the full thing. We'll be right back here same time tomorrow. Hope everybody had a great weekend. See you then. Peace. Saul, and Sean Brady. The logo for our podcast was designed by Magdalena Bukova, who's also our social media manager. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet 75. For more on Tangle, please go to readtangle.com and check out our website. We'll be right back. dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th,

only on Disney+.