TBPN Live - AI Profits Surge, $70B Capex Surge Raises Investor Concerns, Automated Skin Exams | Diet TBPN

Episode Date: May 1, 2026

Diet TBPN delivers the best of today’s TBPN episode in 30 minutes. TBPN is a live tech talk show hosted by John Coogan and Jordi Hays, streaming weekdays 11–2 PT on X and YouTube, with ea...ch episode posted to podcast platforms right after.Described by The New York Times as “Silicon Valley’s newest obsession,” the show has recently featured Mark Zuckerberg, Sam Altman, Mark Cuban, and Satya Nadella.Follow TBPN: https://TBPN.comhttps://x.com/tbpnhttps://open.spotify.com/show/2L6WMqY3GUPCGBD0dX6p00?si=674252d53acf4231https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/technology-brothers/id1772360235https://www.youtube.com/@TBPNLive

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:01 We had to rush back from Stripe Sessions. Fantastic interview with the Collison brothers, many others yesterday. Go check it out if you haven't already. Fun stuff. We didn't go nearly deep enough on the whole Kosian singularity. There's a debate on the timeline about it. We can get into it later. We need to have some more economists on the show to break it down for us.
Starting point is 00:00:19 But this is their big pitch. Firms get smaller and the future, the Coase theory of the firm. Anyway, if you studied economics, you might be familiar. But it's jargon, and you're going to be hearing a lot more. A whole lot of mumbo jumbo. I'm not even going to try. I'm not even going to try with Jury. Well, here's some less mumbo jumbo.
Starting point is 00:00:40 Tech earnings, quad kill. Recap. Four in one day. Last time this happened, I think it was 2020. Four big tech companies all same day. It is random. No one really knows why. It just sort of lines up.
Starting point is 00:00:53 It's like a solar eclipse. Can you use astrology to predict the next one? Potentially. Potentially. You would have to imagine it's something. around the alignment of the planets that causes hyper-stallers. More like the holidays, because books, close, then certain things line up. Also, like, Nvidia is never in the competition, because they're always, like, two or three
Starting point is 00:01:12 weeks later. But anyway, let's go through what actually happened. Google was the big winner. They absolutely crushed the stock's up 10% in the last couple days, really successful. And there's a few reasons. So the core business is still growing? Google Search. This was the question of, is AI, our chatbot's going to be eating into the core?
Starting point is 00:01:30 Google search revenue, the core business that drives all the other investments. The answer is unequivocally no. Google search and other revenue was 60.4 billion, yeah, up 19% year over year. I mean, two years ago, there was the whole like Google Search is Dead thesis that has not been borne out at least this year. Very, very strong results there. Then Google Cloud is like the major story, so much so that take him when he did his earnings recap, he didn't even talk about top lines at Google, Amazon, and Microsoft. He just says Google Cloud revenue, 63% year over year, Amazon Web Services, 28% year over year, Azure, 40% year over year, and then meta overall revenue, which we'll get into, 33% year over year. So he's not even looking at the rest of
Starting point is 00:02:18 the business. All that matters for the three major public clouds are those cloud businesses, not even anything specific within the overall business. So, long story short, higher CAPEX, Google totally justified in a world of cloud acceleration. Backlog growth is huge. Cloud backlog nearly doubled to more than $460 billion. And importantly, this isn't like a five-year, 10-year contract type thing. Half of that, more than half of that backlog is expected to be recognized in the next 24 months. So really good news there. Google, Google Cloud hit 20 billion up 63%. Now it is smaller than Amazon, and that's why AWS is people are hunting for high 20 growth rates, maybe it begins with three.
Starting point is 00:03:04 In Google, it's smaller so it can grow 63%, but that's still fantastic. And cloud operating income was 6.6 billion, which is very strong margin. So everything is looking good. Search durability, demand for AI infrastructure. It's the full stack AI play right now. Microsoft showed solid execution, but they didn't dramatically, change any particular narrative. I think a lot of this goes to like the the just naturally slow deployment of enterprise AI, but this is the focus for Microsoft. They are the enterprise AI play.
Starting point is 00:03:35 Yeah, one thing was notable is they weren't, they weren't heavily teasing anything related to the next Gemini release. Yeah, they wouldn't tease that at earnings. No, no, they have, they have historically. So maybe they want to let the model speak for itself. Yeah, probably announced Gemini I would imagine announced it. Or a coding specific model. Yeah, yeah, something there. I mean, there's certainly demand for it. They have the capacity.
Starting point is 00:04:04 There's lots of opportunity. We'll probably be following that in three weeks when Google I.O. happens. So Microsoft, investors wanted to see Azure growth, co-pilot adoption, and a solid justification for all the CAPEX. The stock's down 2%. Nothing crazy. But Microsoft beat on headline numbers.
Starting point is 00:04:23 revenue was 82.9 billion up 18% year over year. And from an analyst perspective, it was a clean beat. But there's more nuance here. So in terms of AI adoption, Microsoft added about five million. Yeah, let's give it up to the-old. We ordered this bad boy maybe like six months ago. It took a while. It took a while. But it is fun. We need to figure out more things to do with it. On co-pilot adoption, this is the big question. For Microsoft, Microsoft 365, like total seats, you know, you think about Microsoft's Teams, Outlook, like the standard Microsoft Enterprise seat. I think it's about $30 per user per month, competes with Google Apps Enterprise, right? But Microsoft's been doing this for much longer.
Starting point is 00:05:09 They have 450 million paid seats. So in terms of copilot, they added 5 million, which is great. They're at 20 million now. So that's solid adoption, but it's still small compared to the 450 paid seats. Ideally, like, every seat would have a copilot alongside of it. I mean, that's the idea, right? And so the question is, how quickly can they get that 20 million copilot seats up to 200 million, 400 million? You know, ideally everyone has one of these add-on subscriptions, and that's lifting the overall business.
Starting point is 00:05:41 Market reaction was a bit choppy as the new OpenAI relationship gets digested. And so there's two sides to the Microsoft OpenAI deal right now. of course, Open AI is no longer limited to selling just through Azure. Azure no longer has exclusive access to Open AI models. Open AI is now available on AWS as well. And it's, and it cuts both ways. So on one hand, Microsoft, you know, they used to be the exclusive provider. If you're a sales guy at Microsoft on Azure, you're probably really excited to call
Starting point is 00:06:11 somebody up and say, hey, you want to use GPT 5.5. We're the only place in town. Like, you should come over here. You should migrate more of your infrastructure. You should be using Azure. but it was probably frustrating because a lot of people say, no, we're locked into AWS. We are stuck in that cloud, and we'd love to,
Starting point is 00:06:26 but we'll just use the API directly or we'll figure out some other workaround, but we're not moving for this. Yeah, or people could be like, yeah, we're open to trying it, but it'll take, you know, a couple quarters realistically to get ramped up. Yeah, and so from an Azure perspective,
Starting point is 00:06:42 losing exclusivity is a negative, but from a business perspective, the more growth for OpenAI is good for Microsoft's equity stake in the company. And so these two tensions, like the capital balance sheet side of the business versus the Azure sales and acceleration side of the business, like these two are not to mention co-pilot versus codex. Sure. Yeah. And so these two, these two sides of the business are sort of budding up against each other and Sata Nadell ultimately has to go and renegotiate the contract. And they did. And it seems like they're in a good place because a lot of people were sort of
Starting point is 00:07:19 saying like, oh, well, is this going to get messy? Is there going to be some lawsuit here? It seems like there was a very clean negotiation, renegotiation, and the Open AI got rid of the AGI clause that allows them to stop sharing models, but they are sharing revenue. Basically, I think, 2032 end date. Yeah, is just the I.P. Share instead of this, like, arbitrary AGI. So over at Amazon, Amazon still, of course, the KAPX king, they top the KAPX forecast. But as scary as that would be, AWS is reaccelerating, and so that's very good news. So the stock moved slightly upwards.
Starting point is 00:07:57 Q1, 2026 sales for Amazon overall were $181.5 billion for the quarter. For the quarter, they're on track to make a trillion in revenue soon. Up 17% year-over-year, beating expectations. AWS is expected to see 25% growth. That was the expectation, 25%. That's sort of where they've been. They came in at 28%. So they beat on AWS growth, and that's really, really important, especially for their scale.
Starting point is 00:08:21 This was very good news. The ads business is still cooking, churned out $17.2 billion in revenue. And the Chips business just crossed 20 billion run rate, which is very, very good. When they have big deals, AWS is in this interesting position, less of this like Google Pure Play, full stack, and more focused on working with both OpenAI and Anthropic at this point. And so that all justifies more investments in Traneum and AI infrastructure broadly. And the market seems to like it. Huge KAPX numbers, but reasonable response from the market and the stock.
Starting point is 00:08:54 So meta, meta had a rough go. Huge drop nearly 10% down following earnings. It's sort of jumping up and down now. But the core business was extremely strong. So Q1 revenue was 56.3 billion, up 33% year over year. So high growth for the overall business. Add impressions rose 19%. average price per ad rose 12%. They raised the KAPX outlook from this, they have this range.
Starting point is 00:09:19 It's within $10 billion of $125. They added $10 billion to both. So instead of saying, hey, we'll be between $115 and 135, now they're saying we're going to be between 125 and $1.45. Will they actually get more compute for that? Or is that just a reflection of rising prices for all the inputs that go into compute spending? That's a big debate because there's one bull case where, oh, they're optimistic. They're going to buy more compute. But it's like, no, there's a possibility that they're just spending more to get the same amount of compute as they thought. But the big problem for shareholders, the big answer is it's not as clean of a story. Can you imagine just take one second and imagine that META's a private company and their pitch is that we make AI agents for selling products? They're at a
Starting point is 00:10:03 $200 billion run rate growing 33% a year. How is it price? 20 trillion? Probably. With those operating margins? I'm joking. It truly is one of the most incredible businesses of all time. But they don't have the cloud. But people are, yeah, they don't have the cloud thing. He's kind of acting like the most AGI-pilled CEO, like hyper-scaler CEO, right? Yeah. He was talking about like basically talking about like RSI on the earnings call.
Starting point is 00:10:35 He's like, it's not just about like coding, you know, coding. Like he really seemingly believes. and he doesn't want to be in a position where someone else has actual super intelligence, and he does not. And that's just like a little bit too fuzzy, because when you look in the rest of the market right now, it's like productivity tools, right? And so the market just like can't really read into it.
Starting point is 00:10:58 Yeah. And they're just kind of like not even giving him full credit for the business that he has. Yeah. And I forget if he's ever mentioned the idea of selling tokens, selling AI infrastructure, getting in the cloud market. but it's way easier for an AWS. You kind of loosely mentioned that last year when he was like starting to ramp stuff up,
Starting point is 00:11:19 like basically saying like maybe we could do this at some point. Yeah. Because it's way easy to justify the CAPEX at Amazon when you say, oh, well like, you know, if, you know, regardless of how this market plays out, maybe Anthropic takes some of the compute, maybe open AI takes the compute. Maybe there's a whole bunch of new AI labs
Starting point is 00:11:39 that take compute. Maybe we'll use it for our services, our own models. If models commoditize, it's still valuable. If they don't, it's still valuable. There's a whole bunch of different ways to shift that CAPEX around and justify it. Meta, it's got to show up in the AI figures. It's got to show up in the ad business, at least right now. And so there are questions about how the big CAPEX spend feeds back into cash flow.
Starting point is 00:12:04 When the company doesn't have a platform with big enterprise AI contracts, massive RPO figures, There's not an easy place to just stuff compute necessarily and at least get a market standard return on investment. Of course, they could spin up reselling. They could become a neocloud or something like that. But at their scale, it's a whole new host of challenges if they go that direction. And I think that that's not the plan. I think you're dialing into it that they are, in fact, recursive self-improvement pilled at this point. The other sort of tremor in the system was the fact that daily active people, which is something
Starting point is 00:12:40 that they were, it's not users anymore, it's DAP, daily active people, declined sequentially since the first time that META began reporting the metrics. So less people were using meta platforms this quarter than previously. But they had some good explanations for it. They said that there were internet disruptions in Iran and WhatsApp restrictions in Russia. And so this was not representative of a real change. in internet user behavior. And I think we all recognize that that is reality
Starting point is 00:13:10 in the sense that there's not some up-and-coming social network that's eating meta-platforms family of apps lunch, right? Like the TikTok threat came and sort of went. The Snapchat threat came and sort of went. Sora. Sora came and went, right? And so there was a different post. I saw that social media use is declining,
Starting point is 00:13:31 especially under young people, but it was already so high. It's not really showing up the data. It will truly be insane if we get this new alien technology. We get LLMs, which in digital form can convince you that they're a person. And we end up getting no new big social platforms. Might just strengthen the current ones. Well, yeah.
Starting point is 00:13:53 No, I mean, I think that's the base case right now, but it's still wild. I think you would expect, I think, again, if you rewound to like 2020, and you said, hey, we're going to have this technology where you can effectively have a digital, twin of yourself. You would think that somebody would figure out some new. Yeah, maybe. I don't know. I continue to think it just strengthens the incumbents Roblox, Instagram, WhatsApp, Facebook, like these platforms will just get more content on them that will probably be LLM generated, LLM enhanced, even if it's not LLM written or developed. It's, you know, a creator taking less time doing other boring things and spending more time
Starting point is 00:14:30 on their core output. So we'll keep tracking it. So overall, what did we learn this earning season? One possible takeaway is that there's a little bit of a fracturing in the overall AI narrative. So the AI narrative over the last 12 months has basically been like, say, the biggest number, biggest KAPX number, biggest deals, just grow, grow, grow. Now every hyperscaler reports a big KAPX number.
Starting point is 00:14:57 But each company does have a different story. So Google's the full-stack platform, Microsoft's focused on enterprise adoption and distribution, Amazon's most aggressive on infrastructure and partnerships with OpenAI and Anthropic. They have the cleanest, less, it's a less competitive relationship with Anthropic and Open AI because they don't have the deep mind equivalent necessarily. Meta is all about ad optimization. And meta is also this interesting, like high-risk option on Frontier AI. Like it's possible that if TBD Labs, MSL, if that pays off, you're not.
Starting point is 00:15:30 You wind up getting an open AI sized or an anthropic sized business out of it in the oligopoly world where they have a breakthrough. They get to something that's 5-5 or 4-7 level, and then they're competing in an equal level, and they're playing in that oligopoly. And so the metatrators are sort of, or the investors are sort of weighing both of those sides. You have a very solid ads business, and then you have this call option on potential frontier AI, which is still early, but showing some really solid signs. So the market likes short-term revenue evidence right now, and there's still many strategies that will play out over the rest of the year. But this quarter was focused on, can you justify your CAPEX, this quarter? And so we'll keep following it. Let's go over the timeline and see what people were saying.
Starting point is 00:16:19 The headline numbers, of course, were huge cloud growth, AWS 28%, GCP 63%, Azure at 40%. absolutely massive numbers. Remember, people were hoping for GCP to be at 40%, and it went up 63%. Absolutely massive. AWS, people are hoping for 30. They got 28, not too bad. This poster, Ren, is comparing the price to earnings multiples today versus the dot-com boom. So today's Mag4 PE ratios, the companies that reported earnings. Metas at 16x, price to earnings, Google's at 17x, Amazon's at 24. or in Microsoft's a 25 price to earnings ratio. Compare that to during the dot-com. Microsoft is at 73X.
Starting point is 00:17:05 Cisco is at 200x plus. Yahoo was trading at 800-X earnings. The NASDAQ as a whole traded at 200 times earnings during the peak of the dot-com bubble. Today's bubble is trading at 16 to 25x earnings on companies generating hundreds of billions of dollars in real cash flow. Now they're drawing down on that cash flow,
Starting point is 00:17:25 but even in some bizarre world where, you know, AI is a bubble and it's fake and we all go back to pencil and paper. We'll probably go back to digital advertising and spreadsheets in the cloud and, you know, SaaS and all of these companies will still benefit and be in fantastic positions. Yeah, the only thing that's, you know, or one thing that's imperfect with these comparisons is when you look at like the peak, you can say like, okay, Metagoole, Amazon and Microsoft have relatively reasonable P.E. ratios. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:17:56 But if you look at the. rest, you look at all the companies that have been started in the last five years, especially in the private markets that have been marked up from 20 to 100 to 500 to a billion and beyond. Many of them have absolutely no earnings. And so you have to look at maybe something more like a Yahoo as like a decent comp, right, where Yahoo was trading at peak at 800X. And so. And there is some pushback in the replies here.
Starting point is 00:18:23 Reasonous forces. AMD's at 130. Tesla is at 350, Palantir is at 220, and Intel is at 900 times earnings. I know. So it's like very, very convenient to just take the four of the greatest companies ever in the history of the world. And say, like, there's no bubble. Like, they're reasonably priced. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:18:44 I think it is useful to go back to the fact that, like, there's a lot of hype in tech, but what's driving the vast majority of the market cap right now is, still fairly low PE companies. Like, Intel is so much smaller on a market cap basis than Microsoft, Amazon, Google, meta, that even if you're overpaying on earnings for that, the overall market is anchored to a pretty decent earnings engine still. And that's like the bull case here. George Hatz is back with a white pill.
Starting point is 00:19:18 What do you say? May 1st, he says, AI will create jobs. It says, it's nice to see Jensen talk about this, and it's super obvious when you think about it. AI immigration are fundamentally the same. There's new people showing up, and hopefully everyone understands how and why immigration creates jobs. Wants are effectively unlimited.
Starting point is 00:19:35 It's classic Jevins paradox that if we make something more efficient, we end up using more of it, or a cool aphorism I learned at Facebook. If you make the site 10% faster, people spend 5% more total time on it. He worked at Facebook for using an intern. It's part of the machine. Now, just like you get the wah-wah crying people
Starting point is 00:19:52 about how immigration lowers wages for Native-born Americans, and we got to keep the hardworking immigrants out because you have some right to be lazy or something. You'll get this about AI. AI will outcompete some humans at some jobs. But protectionism is for losers. The important thing is that the overall pie grows and inequality stays somewhat in check,
Starting point is 00:20:09 not by redistribution, but by design. There will be more to do than ever before. More to do than ever before. Can we pull up this video, Jensen? Yeah, let's do it. In the production chat for you. You have it. Yeah, we can play it.
Starting point is 00:20:25 All right. I'm excited for Eric Sufurt's deep dive here. We'll get into that later. The Suvenator? The Suvenator. And reminder, we have the Izacanator coming on in just seven minutes. Mike Isaac has been covering the Elon Musk versus a trial. Is it like a four-day work week with trials?
Starting point is 00:20:45 It is. Are they living in the future? It is. Wait, so can we pull up this screenshot? Because did you read Mike Isaac's full thread on, on his experience covering the trial. Did you read the whole thing? Because he's been live tweeting it.
Starting point is 00:21:01 And it's very funny because he will post. So we got to zoom in here. This is a... Did you turn this into an infographic? So this is a minute by minute chronological log of off topic slash personal slash minor inconvenience moments because Mike Isaac will talk about,
Starting point is 00:21:19 oh, Elon must just said this on the stage. Oh, the lawyer fired back with this. The jury said this. The judge said that. Right. But then in between that, he has been logging very, very minor inconveniences that he's that he's experienced. So he talks about his his lunch, the roasted tomato and corn pizza. He says he forgot a pillow for his bird to sit on. He said he corn. I don't know. He said he bought that's a very Oakland thing at at 160745. This is transcribed from X. I think the times are times are UTC or something. He brought a water bottle but forgot to fill it in the rush for a seat. Now he's increasingly thirsty during an intense moment of testimony. Someone's laptop suddenly blasted a loud YouTube video in the gallery.
Starting point is 00:22:08 This is a garden hose nozzle, it said. Courtroom mishap. So he's going through it all. It's very fun to track his. And we'll dig into his experience, both in the court and actually with what's going on with the case. But let's play this. Jensen clip. This sounds fun.
Starting point is 00:22:22 The things that are said are very, counterproductive and in fact hurtful. On the one hand maybe a scientist thinks that by warning people that AI is going to completely permeate and proliferate across radiology and therefore radiologists are going to get wiped out, on the one hand that might be considered warning and therefore helpful, but in fact the counter would have been hurtful. If we convinced everybody not to be radiologists and we now need radiologists that actually is hurtful to society. It is hurtful that we convince all the young college graduates to not be software engineers and it turns
Starting point is 00:23:02 out the United States need more software engineers than ever. That's hurtful. And so we have to be mindful of how we communicate the importance of this technology and what is able to do to advocate for policy and advocate for guardrails on the one hand, on the other hand, scaring people with things like saying nonsensical things which are not going to have to have to be. happen that this is an existential threat to humanity. There's 20% chance that is existential. That's ridiculous.
Starting point is 00:23:33 That it's going to wipe out 50% of new college grad jobs. That it's going to completely destroy democracy. These kind of comments are not helpful. They're not based. They're made by. He's sub-tweeting in real life. He's not vague posting. He's sub-tweeting.
Starting point is 00:23:54 I do think the 50% numbers are so funny because it's like 50-50 is like the most neutral you can be about some prediction. It feels like, I mean, I get that it's not in that case. It's like 50% of jobs. But whenever you issue like a 50-50 proclamation, it sort of tells you nothing. Like we were looking at like the prediction markets on the trial and we were like, oh, it's 50-50. Okay. So it actually doesn't give me any information about what's going to happen in the future. And it's very easy to make a prediction.
Starting point is 00:24:20 It's like, oh, I predict this will happen 50-50. And then if it doesn't happen, you can be like, well, yeah, 50% chance it wasn't going to happen. Like, I had it really high that it wasn't going to happen. And then you can also say, you know, I predicted it. Yeah, so it is truly universal when we talk to these companies that are building AI products or selling AI products. It seems like the ambition level in every single industry is just going up. Even Gabe from Rogo was saying, yeah, there's an opportunity to cut costs or there's an opportunity to get aggressive and like take market share. And he said, like, a lot of firms are saying, like, let's just do more work.
Starting point is 00:24:54 Let's grow our revenue. Let's take on more clients, right? It's harder and harder to doom about the job market. Yeah. Do you need to doom about the task market? It's over for tasks. Are getting automated. No, it's serious.
Starting point is 00:25:09 Like, there are tasks that, like, the reading of the x-ray or whatever it was, the radiologist scan, what do they actually read? Is that an x-ray that they're looking for tumors in? You know what I'm talking about, right? The famous Hinton. Yeah, I don't know if it's likely an x-ray. It's not, right? It's a cat scan or something.
Starting point is 00:25:26 It's some scan where you can look at the user. Yeah, they do a scan. And of course, image generation and image models are very good at detecting cancers. But that is just one of several tasks, many tasks that a radiologist does throughout the day. And so radiologists are currently making more money than ever, and they are in more demand than ever. And I was telling you before the show about truck drivers. They don't just drive the truck. there was a survey that said 70% of them carry weapons
Starting point is 00:25:50 because they are effectively, they are security guards for the truck, as well as probably a bunch of other things that you don't think about, light repairs on the truck, you know, stopping for different things, rearranging things in the back, making sure the load is like balanced and whatnot.
Starting point is 00:26:05 It's not purely just, yes. If you're driving with kids in the car and you drive by a big truck on a road trip, you can go like this. Yes, and then that's another thing that the self-driving truck needs to do. A computer could never, a computer. could never look out the window to see some kids in the car and honk.
Starting point is 00:26:20 But, well, yeah, I mean, we'll see. Data Center beautification. And he summed it up perfectly. He says, make data centers aesthetically beautiful. And so people have been, quote, tweeting, posting, riffing on this, sharing different ideas. More people would be pro data center if every data center had a beautiful open to the public heated pool.
Starting point is 00:26:43 That's an interesting twist. whole water slide. I think half pipe is a big idea. Monster truck rally constantly going on. These are ways to, you know, win people over sort of a nitro circus going on every data center. Monster truck rally on the roof of a data center. Yeah. Sort of a universal basic nitro circus. So you get, are you familiar with nitro circus? Are you know, are this a three fingers moment for you? Or you're like, ah, I'm familiar. I'm just imagining. Just saying you've never actually been to Nitro Circus. I'm imagining they're building the dirt bike ramps over the data set. Exactly.
Starting point is 00:27:19 Back flipping over the day. Julie Young shares a trick, this one neat trick that Los Angeles uses to hide oil deckers. We have a few oil derricks in L.A. that are disguised as synagogues. They are literally just sitting in the middle of the city, Lull. Surprisingly few people are aware. There's a number of data centers that are disguised in Los Angeles as well. Usually you can tell because there's no windows in the building, but these exist in downtown. Usually for edge computing, for like the content delivery network, you put store on your Netflix videos there, that type of stuff, not doing training runs, not gigawatt clusters.
Starting point is 00:27:55 Justin, skin exams are getting automated. Oh, yes. This is a very cool product. Okay, break it down for us. Let's pull out. We have a video here. Yes. I think anybody that's been to a dermatologist, it's like looking for potential, you know, skin cancers, things like Nat.
Starting point is 00:28:14 that abnormalities has had the experience of like the, you know, that video or the meme where the guys like walking through security and the security guys just like, you know, does this like really like pat down. It's like that's basically what like a lot of dermatologists are doing where they just like take a quick glance and they're like, oh yeah, looks good. Yeah, they might be busy. They might be sleepy. Come back in like a couple years.
Starting point is 00:28:36 But this robot. It's a robot that just does it like really, really precisely, consistently, ideally, hopefully, hopefully a lot more excessively. I can see this making a lot of sense. And then you actually, it doesn't even replace the job of the doctor. It just helps them speed up the process. Where is this company? What stage are they?
Starting point is 00:28:56 Do they have to go through FDA medical device approval process? That could be a couple of years maybe. But this seems like once you get it through, it's going to be massively successful. I wonder where they are in the FDA process. Hopefully they can move along quickly. ARCPRIZE, put out an update on ARCGIV3, which, Tyler, are you still on the human leaderboard for that? I don't think I'm on the leaderboard anymore. That was too early on.
Starting point is 00:29:23 I think there's actually more games now. Roasted. Well, ARCGIV3 has been very tough for even the most frontier AI models, but the good folks over at ARCPRIZ have benchmarked the two latest and greatest AI models. from Open AI and Anthropic GPD 5.5 scored 0.43%. Opus 4.7 scored 0.18%. It is state of the art. This is the weird thing about these Arc AGI tests
Starting point is 00:29:58 is that they start with such a low baseline, 0%, 1%. And then they start shooting up as the models get more capable. But it is very interesting and reassuring to see these powerful models that you sometimes hear these narratives. It can do everything. And then there's something that, you know, to continue working for, to look forward to in the future, there's more applications here.
Starting point is 00:30:20 And so they found three total failure modes, true local effect false world model, wrong level of abstraction from training data, solve the level but didn't reinforce the reward. And so the Ark Prize account goes through a little bit of what's going on when an AI model tries to play Arc AGIV3, which is basically a 2D video game. simple enough for any human to progress through, but increasingly difficult for AI models. Okay. We've got to talk about one of the most exciting new products created in the last 100 years. According to Katie at Business Insider, Amazon will now create an AI podcast about their products
Starting point is 00:31:00 where two AI hosts discuss the products and take your questions as if it's a call-in show. Yes. Let's play. We don't need to play this one. This one is so rude. but you can imagine the type of products that people are generating AI podcasts for only the silliest things will be generated. I don't know if people want to listen to a full podcast about every product they buy on Amazon,
Starting point is 00:31:22 but you have had some very strong opinions about paper towels. You wanted paper towels from like the 1950s or something. Remember this whole thing? Well, I just wanted a filter to be able to buy, only shop for things on Amazon. Now instead of a filter, you can listen to an hour-long podcast about every possible skew and then you can make the most determined decision available go enjoy your weekend enjoy your Friday we will see you on Monday goodbye they love you flashbang

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