TBPN Live - Airbnb CEO on Why AI Will Create a New Era of Consumer Products
Episode Date: May 8, 2026This is our full conversation with Brian Chesky, recorded live on TBPN.We discuss how Airbnb reaccelerated growth by rebuilding startup intensity and embracing “founder mode” leadership, ...why Chesky believes today’s AI chatbots are not the right interface for the future of travel and e-commerce, how Airbnb is using AI across the business with 60% of its code now written by AI, and why he believes the next major wave of AI innovation will come from immersive consumer products, visual interfaces, and agentic experiences rather than another wave of enterprise software.Sign up for TBPN’s daily newsletter at TBPN.comFollow TBPN:https://TBPN.comhttps://x.com/tbpnhttps://open.spotify.com/show/2L6WMqY3GUPCGBD0dX6p00?si=674252d53acf4231https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/technology-brothers/id1772360235https://www.youtube.com/@TBPNLive
Transcript
Discussion (0)
Brian, how are you doing? Good. How are you guys doing?
We're doing fantastic. Welcome back to the family. Yeah. Why don't we kick it off with just, you know, an update on how 2026 is going, how the business is going. What's new in your world?
Yeah, I mean, things are really good. We've accelerated growth for the first time since the pandemic. We grew 10% last year in revenue. And this quarter we announced the revenue was 18%. So from 10 to 18%, which is a pretty big acceleration. Yeah.
And marketplaces are really, really hard, right?
Like, it's kind of like gravity.
Once a marketplace at our size doing around $100 billion in gross booking a year start to come down,
it's really hard to tip that curve.
So this has been a pretty big feat for the team to be able to do it.
So how'd you do it?
You know, it's kind of funny.
A number of years ago, we, so I noticed that, you know, as we got bigger, we started losing
a little bit of that startup intensity, that startup energy.
And I asked myself, like, how can we get that energy back?
And we basically took a very small team.
We named the team Project Hawaii.
The name doesn't really matter.
But basically, I took a very small team of people.
And we said, we're going to focus on a very, very small service area.
And we decided to focus on conversion rate, the guest journey.
And I basically tried to work with a team, like, as if we're at Rouse Street.
Routht Street was the apartment that Joe Nade and I started.
And I said, we're going to act like a startup.
And the team just grinded really, really hard.
We weren't working like a big company.
We were very small team, grinding really hard, focusing on the,
assessing over the customer experience,
really looking at the data,
and we really got a lot of points in the board.
Then we really started taking these pods,
and we really started working with the teams,
trying to coach them, how we worked in the early days.
And I just think the pace increase, the intensity increase.
We really tried to bring in world-class people onto the team.
They got very, very focused.
We tried to get all the management and bureaucracy out of their way.
And it's been a couple years.
In fact, we were doing this last year,
but one of the things is, as you know,
financial results are lagging indicators,
especially when you're a big company.
So it takes sometimes a while to get the financial numbers
to reflect what's happening inside the company.
But I feel like we're a startup again, more than ever.
We feel much younger and smaller than earlier.
And I think with AI, that would be the other thing,
is 60% of our code is now written by AI,
which is twice a benchmark of our competitors and peers.
And it's really, really helping us.
AI, I think, is a huge boon to us.
I don't know if it's helped the OTAs,
but it's helped us with customer service.
The customer service tickets down 10%,
40% people who contact me, the AI solves the problem for them.
And we brought it through the entire journey.
So everything is really accelerating.
On the special team that went into optimized conversion rate,
I imagine you have folks internally whose job,
it was basically the customer journey already.
Then you bring in your special team.
And is there some sort of culture clash there?
Like how do you set people up for success to, you know, not get too political in that environment,
actually see it as an opportunity for a win, some fresh eyes, some fresh ideas?
Like what is required to actually have success?
Because I think a lot of big companies that bring in McKinsey and they put together a big deck
and everyone freaks out and thinks they're getting fired and maybe some of the good ideas are surfaced,
but it never really goes through.
So what, like, what do you have to communicate to the team that is receiving information from this new
this new Kauai team.
Yeah, so it's a great thing.
I mean, really what I'm talking about
has played out over like really five years
and the term founder mode,
what it really meant that Paul Graham wrote
was about me like skipping Laylism Management
and going into the details with teams.
And instead of trying, I mean, here's my advice,
if you're a CEO or a leader of a company that's big,
don't try to change the whole company,
try to change a corner of the company.
It's kind of like don't renovate the whole house,
pick like one room and make it perfect
and then go room to room.
So I really told,
teams like, hey, like, I actually didn't replace the team. I took the team that was already
working. I, like, handpick some people on the team, but I really just taught them the pace,
and I would review work very regularly. So I'd sometimes review the work weekly or even daily
to just teach them a level of intensity, a level of perfection. And it was unfamiliar and
uncomfortable. And I will tell you that not everyone liked it, and some people didn't stick
around the company because they didn't like that way of working, but those who stuck around
and the vast majority did, they realized, wow, actually when the CEO is involved, it's actually
easier. There's less bureaucracy. I try to make the work better, and I try to clear all
obstacles. And so I basically did that group by group. And the great thing is, like, I was
in massive number of details reviewing everything for years. But eventually, it's like muscle memory.
It's like, I know, an instructor or a coach. You have to teach them. But once they learn and they
have the muscle memory, like a golf swing, you can step back, and now it's muscle memory. So
now I don't have to be in all these details, all these teams.
But I would just say a couple things, people listening, like, great leadership is presence,
not absence.
I think a generation of management consulting or management school, management teaching taught us
that CEOs should trust their people and get out of the way.
And I don't think trust and get out of the way of the same thing.
Again, I think leadership is presence.
And if you should actually be partnering with your people, you should be on the field with
them.
If you're a, if you're a cavalry general, you should be on a horse.
You should be on the battlefield.
You're not like, you're not overseas somewhere else, just writing out blueprints.
You've got to be on the field with them.
You've got to be leaning for an example.
I think leadership is from the front, not from the back.
And so these are just some of the things we do.
And I think AI is going to create like the equivalent of an AI founder mode, which is now you've got to be even more hands on.
And I don't think in the era of AI there should be any pure people managers because you're so close to the details, to the data, that everyone has the opportunity to be hands-on.
and it's hard to imagine only managing people and not agents.
So I think this hands-on approach is for everyone inside of a company.
How do you, uh, Jordy, please.
Do you think a lot about what you would do if you were you from 10 or 15 years ago
and you were trying to disrupt Airbnb?
Like is that a helpful exercise?
Yeah, and it's slightly, and it's slightly scary because I think that I've told,
I had a meeting with their team recently.
I said that 26-year-old me and Joe and Nate,
could F us up if we wanted to.
And so I told them this is what I would do.
But that's because you understand this market
better than anyone else, you know,
you know the key drivers, like I don't think
any 26-year-old off the street.
Hey, I'm paranoid.
I think that if everybody sits still,
I think a different group of 20 or 30-year-olds
could also disrupt us.
And I think that's true of every one of us.
And maybe that by the way, maybe that's not true.
And maybe that's not reassuring,
because we do have a brand that's a noun
We've got a global network effects.
I think it's actually hard to build a network.
That may not be possible.
But the software and the app, I told our team, like, we can't sit still.
Our app is beautiful.
It's really nice.
But we got to be in a world of AI native.
And here's the key point I would make.
I do not think a chat bot is the right interface for travel or e-commerce.
That might be a radical statement.
ChatGPT launched third-party apps last year.
In March, they shut them down.
I don't think a chat bot's the right interface.
It's got four or five problems.
The first problem is it's text-based, photos or an afterthought.
The second is there's no direct manipulation.
You have to type every single prompt, which is fine for a conversation, but you can't
like add filters, you can't cook around.
The third problem is it's hard to compare.
A lot of e-commerce and travel is comparison shopping.
If you have thousands of options, the AI has to know exactly what you want to be able to show
you one or two things, but you usually want to see more choices and you get lost.
most AI single player. It's not
collaborative, let alone the fact that
Airbnb requires people
to have an account.
85% of people send a message.
So what I'm trying to do is imagine
Sorry to push back there, but
I'm, my wife's
planning a vacation, and
there's like
three-ish
hotels that we're looking at,
and we're looking for
specific dates, and
she theoretically, I'm not saying,
the products are there yet, but theoretically you could ask a chatbot, I'm interested in
this location, I'm interested in these hotels, I have XYZ number of people, and it could go,
and the agent could go and pull together, like, relevant sort of like listings or room types,
etc., pricing, show me pictures, and then actually do an analysis of the tradeoffs based on all the
information available as well as information in other parts of the internet and pull it together,
and then she could share that chat with me
and we could both review it together.
Yes, I agree. That's the future
and that's not a chat bot what you described.
That's not a chat bot.
It's going to be a completely different interface.
It's going to be, well, I guess you'll have to wait and see,
but I think the future are not apps.
The future are agents,
but I don't think they're going to be text forward.
I think they're going to be really rich user interface.
And so I think the current chatbot paradigm,
what you're describing, it can do it.
I just don't think it's the best,
to do what you just described.
I think there's a much more immersive way to do that.
Yeah.
As you think back, I mean, it feels like at various points, clearly there's been like,
oh, is all of this going to move to chatbots?
Or are there going to be a million competitors that are all vibe coding exactly what
you have?
And so is software remote?
The stock has not been beaten down during the SaaSpocalypse.
But have you had to process those with investors?
Have you had to walk people through Airbnb?
be strengths again. I'm sure, I'm sure you did after the like the 2028 intelligence crisis.
Thankfully, they picked Dordash instead of you guys, but they're very,
I really appreciate them picking on someone else for once. Yeah, no, absolutely. I think like,
there were entire, like actually when Chachapit launched a third party apps, their stock probably
went down like 7%. And by the way, I thought it was a really good idea for them do third party
apps. I think it could have been successful. Sure. But they would have needed a richer SDK for it
to work. And it would have, like, like the apps
Apple's App Store was good for Airbnb and it was good for every company because they had a really rich user interface
Maybe this is the point I'm making that imagine using I message on your iPhone to do everything
When in fact like every other app has a unique interface
So what I think is e-commerce you want a very rich user interface
Yeah, it would be a gentic
You can be able to have a conversation with it you can talk to it I could talk back to it
But I think the point is it has to be more visual yeah
I think a text-based interfaces for some solutions yeah and a chat bot that's visual
Yeah, that would work.
I'm just saying today's trapbots aren't the right solution.
But the answer to your question, I had a couple of new employees.
Like one of our new team members is a guy named Ahmed, who is the CTO of Airbnb.
Now he led the Lama models at Meta.
And one of the comments he made to me was he said, wow, yeah, Airbnb is so much more
than the app.
And in fact, the app that you see is like 20% of Airbnb.
We have typically four or five million people staying in an Airbnb every night in more
than 100 countries around the world. So there's a lot more to do around payments, around customer
service, adjudicating everything. We have to, you know, we have a $3 million guarantee against
theft or property damage for a million homes a night. That's $3 trillion. You know, there's just so
many types of things around managing five and a million hosts. We have a host app. So there's a lot
of things that are beyond the guest app. I actually think the gas app would be pretty easy to copy.
And I think in age of AI, you can make a better app than ours. And we want to make that app before
anyone else does and we want to be agentic. But I think the key is most of Airbnb is not the
app that you use. It's mostly the off-on experience. It's the operation. Yeah, that makes sense. Yeah,
the IMS example is good. Maybe even going deeper into like old SMS, because I message has
hydrated so many things with the reactions and you paste a link and it hydrates it and it's becoming
more of a visual tool. But it is a long road. Question for you. Yeah. Well, before you said,
one of the things is the last time I was on, I did make a comment, and I'll make it again,
almost every AI company is an enterprise company. And the last stat I think I said on TBPN was like
three months ago, and stats haven't changed. I think it was 175 companies in a YC batch, and I think
16 were consumer. That trend hasn't changed. Almost everyone is going into coding, almost everyone's
going to enterprise. I think that's great. My whole point, though, is that the consumer
experience hasn't fundamentally changed that much being in a chat bot. And I think,
think the consumer is a massive opportunity for AI.
And I think it's going to need to be a richer user interface.
I think people that want to do more things, they wanted to be, I mean, the modern
AI today is text, photos, and buttons.
Yep.
Mostly in some videos.
And I think there's a more breakthrough visual paradigm that can be much more immersive.
And with a new image and video generation models, you could do something so much more
immersive.
So the exact example you gave at trying to book Hotel, yeah, you can do it on chat bot,
But there's probably some more breakthrough way to imagine that, to visualize it, to see the
neighborhood, to see the map, to be able to talk to it, to understand where it is, to be
able to compare photos, different hotels.
There's something, I think, richer on the horizon.
Yeah, that was, I was surprised at the push into browsers last year from some different
AI companies, specifically because I already felt like an LLM, like the chat bots were helping
me browse around the internet.
like just double down on that and helping me find information all over the internet.
I like that it's brought together in a standardized way, right?
If like the example, you know, of comparing like different hotels, right?
It's nice to have it just like formated the same way.
So I'm looking at it.
I'm not being like, I want to be influenced by the images and like the property,
but not necessarily the design of the website, right?
Because that they can be disconnected.
I wanted to ask if you think LMs will impact.
travel in the world in the way that social media did and travel trends specifically because
Instagram nowadays like a place like Marfa and like Texas, right? It's like it's random town,
you know, artistic type town in Texas and then it just becomes a cool place because of
Instagram and then and then the entire kind of town evolves because of that. I can imagine
like people researching like places to go with LLMs could ultimately drive some of
and then ultimately reinforce each other, but what do you think?
Yeah, maybe the simple framework is think about a travel journey.
Step one is destination discovery.
Where should I travel?
Step two is flights, how do I get there?
Step three is, where do I stay, Urban Beer Hotel.
Step four is like, what do I do when I get there, restaurants, activities.
And step five is typically like logistics, car rental, services,
and then step six is you're in the city, and then you might want to do things that,
time spontaneously. I think LMs, or let's call the LM technology, applied to, I'm arguing a slightly
richer user interface than typical chatbot, will be revolutionary for step one, step two,
for destination discovery and flights. Also, because flights are not very hard to build, there's just
three global distribution systems. Anyone can pipe in an API and have a flight booking app pretty,
pretty quickly. And so I think the LMs are really, really good at destination discovery. If you
want to say like, hey, I want to go somewhere that's like Paris, but it's a little more affordable.
It's good to go in August.
I like opera.
Like, it's going to give you, like, a very rich, like, suggestion of places to go.
Now, I think the current chatbot doesn't have really rich maps.
I think it could do a lot more visually.
I think eventually chatbots or this new interface could be very video-based.
So imagine a chat bot that was actually video-based or very, very photo-based rather than a little less text-based.
I think that would probably be what you'd want for travel.
I think what I'm describing would disrupt travel more than the current chatbots, which are
more acting like Google sending referral traffic.
And they actually, the referral traffic from these chat bots are converting higher than Google.
And so actually the chatbots are actually additive to travel companies.
To disremediate travel company, you would really want to disremediate the travel journey.
It would have to be much richer.
Yeah, I feel like, did you remember that company Hipmunk?
I think it was founded.
Yeah, it was really cool.
Founders, right?
Yeah.
the CEO of Reddit. That's right. Steve Huffman, right?
Wait, are you talking about HipCamp? No. Hipmunk. Hipmunk was a really cool flight book.
It was a really cool flight booking dashboard and it would rank the flights by pain,
like a pain index. So it would say, well, you're not going to face financial pain because it's a
really cheap flight, but you do have a stopover or you do have to get to the airport super early.
And so it would blend all these things together. And it's something that it feels like could be
vibe coded over a weekend now.
Totally. And yet, it is weird that when I open up the App Store charts, I see Chat
Chbitty, Gemini, Claude, and then it's just AI chat apps. And we haven't had that
breakout moment. Demis was on stage at YC, actually talking about the fact that it feels weird
that we have this super intelligence in the enterprise and vibe coding and your 60% of Airbnb's
code is written by AI now. And yet we don't have like a new AAA game or a new video game that
everyone's playing. And I'm wondering, like, is that a lack of creativity? Is it a lack of
risk taking? That there's just too much money. It's too, it's too obvious to be able, if you're,
if you're good in AI, just go into enterprise because you'll just raise a bunch of money,
get a bunch of customers. It's really easy to make money. It's more risk on in the consumer.
Like, what do you think needs to happen? Or is it just the intelligence isn't quite there,
and maybe the next model is the one that unlocks it?
Well, this is such a good question.
I think there's like three or four factors going on.
The first factor is I saw a tweet recently that I think there's like 60 new Neo Labs being
formed.
And I've met a number of these researchers and a lot of them are interested in doing the
same things.
And I think what I'm noticing is most of these teams are purely AI people.
They don't have product people or designers on their team.
They're picking things like science.
They're picking things like coding.
They're picking things like we want to create a different.
type of model. This is great, but I don't know if all 60 companies should be doing the same problem.
And so what you're seeing is you don't see a big focus on people wanting to do consumer.
I think some people think that the AGI can just figure out consumer. I think that's
maybe simple, overly simplistic thinking. I do think you have to have a point of view about
consumer. So I think that's the first point. I think the second point is, you know, Silicon
Valies become more vibe and trend-based than when I came to Silicon Valley 2007, although it was
back then. And one of the things I think when people see enterprise companies doing well,
they go into it. And I think there's this like natural flywheel. The other thing is I know in
Wicominee, for example, we teach the Y Combinator companies used to other companies as their
customers. Now back in the day, we would get them to use our product as consumers. But I think
everyone's figured out actually it's way more efficient to get them to become customers.
Like five code gen startups all being like. You code with me. You code.
Yes, exactly.
Yeah.
And so I think enterprise makes a lot of sense until everyone does enterprise.
And then suddenly, like, everyone's saying consumers hard, but you know it's also hard, like
competing with 10 other companies in enterprise doing your idea too.
That's also hard.
Yeah.
I think additionally, the image in video generation models are having a, I think image
too is almost like a Claude Code breakthrough.
It is so good now in the C-Dance video models that I think we're about to enter this
new era where suddenly going beyond text is possible.
I think you're going to even be able to see real-time AI-generated interface the next year or two.
So my prediction is this has been the era of enterprise.
Even Chad GBT's breakout success, I would predict that most revenue is going to go be going to Codex.
That's my pretty, I might be wrong, but just given how much money is going to Claude.
And I think in the next two years, you're going to see a massive revolution in consumer.
And I think you're going to need a couple companies to lead the way.
I think we need reference points.
I mean, even me saying the chatbots, not the interface, people probably asking, well, what is?
And someone needs to be the one to do that.
I mean, we're going to try to do our part.
I'm not sure Airbnb will be the company to blaze the trail, but I think someone has to.
I think in another era it would have been Apple, like the Steve Jobs era, Apple would have done that.
Maybe Apple will do that, but they would have been typically the company that would have done that.
Yeah.
Are you worried that everyone is working on the exact same thing?
And when I say exact same thing, I mean agents that can do things on your computer and or, you know, look at the iPhone app store chart or look at the early stage startup market, right?
A lot of companies, you know, the full spectrum of companies from hyperscalers to labs to Neo Labs to...
I'm not too worried.
I might be a little worried for the entrepreneurs if they're like the 10th company doing
something. I mean, like Peter Thiel was one of our earliest investors, and he used to, he wrote
this book zero to one that a lot of people listening probably read. He has a saying,
competitions were losers, and you want to kind of try to do something that no one else is doing.
Back in the day, that was Enterprise because everyone was making an app. And now I just, I'd be careful
about being the 10th company doing something, unless you're going to be a lot better decisively.
It's just really, really hard in a crowded market. So you want to kind of zig when everyone else
is zagging. So I'm not too worried, but maybe a little bit. And I would just,
encourage entrepreneurs to try to claim a space for their own.
And by the way, Airbnb was that.
It was kind of accidental, but like in 2007, everyone wanted to do like a social networking
something.
And we were like, it was tempting for us to try to be a social networking something something
as well.
It was accidental that we inflated through air beds one weekend and created airbed and breakfasts
and people thought it was the worst idea ever.
I guess it became like the worst idea that ever worked, but we carved our own space.
as did Uber, and we weren't trying to be anything else.
And so I kind of, and by the way, open AI wasn't trying to be anyone else either.
Maybe they were a little bit like deep mind, but AI was not the thing when Open AI Anthropic got started.
So I do think there is something about not chasing trends.
I think once it's a trend, it can be a little crowded and to try to claim out your own space.
And I would say there's so much of the U.S. economy that AI hasn't yet touched.
Yeah.
On that note, how are you talking to, or how would you talk to designers or RISD students about applying non-technical skill sets or non-AI disciplines, non-computer science backgrounds to consumer?
The reason I ask you to do, I feel like there's a lot of, there's a lot of pushback against AI in design communities.
in colleges right now broadly.
AI is not particularly popular,
and there's a lot of fear of job loss.
But at the same time, I'm sure,
like, the tools have changed throughout the history,
and I feel like you believe that there's an incredible opportunity,
but I'm worried that some people are not jumping on that opportunity
because they have hesitations about various,
oh, well, does this displace this tool, or, you know,
you know, how was this made?
Or, you know, is this the right tool for the job?
Should I even be using this?
Yeah, I'm really worried that an entire generation of designers, artists, and creative people
are going to decide to kind of sit out AI.
And I think it's the biggest opportunity for creative people in my lifetime.
By the way, this is not the first time designers were late.
We creatives and designers were really late to the internet and web.
So going back 30, 35 years, most of the first time designers, we're late.
the prestigious designers did not get into so-called web design. Web design was considered a lower
tier, lower status design, and they stayed with print. All they established people. And so they did not
really chase design. What ended up happening was because you had a lot of these really excellent
designers that did not go into web design, I think what happened was a lot of, there were a lot
of good people that became web designers, but I think there became a gap between web design
and engineering. You had people that maybe didn't have the full design skill set and
happened was this function emerged called product management. Product management, I'm not arguing
against. We have product managers. It's very important. But in industrial design, there's no product
managers, for the most part, they're industrial designers. In architecture, the architect is the
product manager. And so I think what ended up happening in web design, designers are very, very narrow.
There was a void. Product managers filled that void. I'm not arguing against that model,
but I think if designers sit out, we're going to see as engineers and product managers
designing for them. And I think the counterpoint is designers can be engineers and product people
for intents of purposes, said differently, if I were starting Airbnb today, I'd be vibe coding and
Claude Code. And I'm trying to do it now. I'm doing it for fun. I'm not really going to be doing
anything productive Airbnb. But if I was 26, I would have thought of myself as a technical person.
I think all designers should think of themselves as product people and as, you know, front-end
engineers, if anything. And so I think this is a boon.
I don't think that the future of the internet has to be all text-based.
I think it can be very visual.
I think the photo and video generation models allow you to design incredibly rich interfaces.
And this is, I think, the best time in the world for designers and creative people to get involved.
I think they're just a little bit afraid.
And whatever we can do to enlist them to just get their hands dirty, many designers are.
I just think more should get involved and not be getting out of typical wireframes.
Just start coding.
Do you think, so assuming we solve this problem of not enough, you know, creative people working in consumer, we build, you know, we as a society build cool new consumer products and experiences and apps.
There's something that deserves to be at the top of the app store. Has distribution and the acquisition of customers and users changed structurally?
You know, you were very good at SEO and Google and there was a referral program.
Do those patterns still work?
Are they broken?
Is there a new playbook that needs to be rolled out for anyone who has something that's
great, but they need to get it in the hands of consumers broadly?
I think we need new patterns.
This is a funny saying.
I think the highest turnover job of any executive of Silicon Valley might be the CMO.
I don't know for sure.
but like, you know, you don't see a lot of turnover of CFOs.
You don't see a lot of turnovers of CTOs.
But like Amazon was famously, and I don't know if part of my theory is that like what works
in marketing changes every few years and you have to be adaptable and your old playbook gets outdated.
So marketing is unfortunately one of the hardest functions.
I have a huge amount of respect for people of marketing because once something works,
it almost becomes stale because then everyone does it.
And so like influencer marketing was really successful until everyone did it.
And then people kind of tune.
it out. It's this thing called banner blindness. Banner blindness is after you see something over and over,
you tend to be blind to it, and so you need a new tactics. So I think that a couple of thoughts.
Number one, I think that just like we need new interface design, new creative, experiential approaches,
we also need new types of marketing. I don't know off the top of my head what that is. It's
probably something we haven't done before. I mean, Joe and I, we did, like, bizarre things,
like we sold collectible cereal boxes,
and when social media was new,
we were all over social media,
and when there were newspapers,
we would hunt down reporters
and try to get them to write about us.
But people ask me, how do we get users?
I'm like, all the tactics from 2008
aren't relevant anymore.
So you've got to be irrelevant,
and you've got to find new tactics.
The second thing I'd say, though,
is you're right, the distribution is mature.
When we started Airbnb, the app store was young.
In fact, the internet was still young.
I mean, we could just, you could launch a website and just ride the growth of the internet.
And it's hard.
The internet is not growing like it did before.
In other words, people were coming on to the internet in hundreds of millions a year, new users.
So I do think distribution for consumers mature.
At the same time, the top apps in the app store are new apps.
They're mostly chatbots.
So what that tells you, if you do something truly breakthrough and revolutionary,
consumers will still probably find it.
And so that's, I think, yeah, I think the two principles are,
do something so revolutionary, consumers will find you.
And number two, you're going to have to find your own new tactics.
And, you know, anything that is standard is probably stale.
Well said.
I have one more.
Yeah, looking out into the future, you've ridden the growth of the short-term rental market.
You dominate it now is the biggest opportunity to just continue to make the best product in the category, ride the continued growth of it.
or do you think there's another STR-sized market for Airbnb?
I think the biggest opportunity for Airbnb is to go beyond our core business.
I do think a core business does close to $100 billion in gross sales
if you net out all the other businesses, gross booking value,
the total amount of reservations going through the site.
I think that could probably double one day.
I don't know how long that one day is,
but for every person who stays in Airbnb,
eight or nine stay in a hotel,
I think we can get one extra person in an Airbnb.
eventually. And I think that can get you to 200 billion. I think there's a market much larger
than Airbnb, which is hotels. Again, hotels is about eight or nine times the size of Airbnb.
I don't think we'll ever be a hotel dominant site, but we are going more aggressive into
hotels. A fun thing is that about half the hotels in the world are independence and boutiques.
They're not chain hotels, and they're not really happy listing on the OTAs because they pay
a higher commission to chains. A lot of these independent hotels are being forced, or they feel
like their hand is being forced to franchise, to Marriott, to Hilton are their brands, because they
have loyalty programs. They can, you know, they can negotiate lower commissions. So we think we can be
a distribution channel for these boutiques independence. That is a multi-billion dollar market. I think
another one would be services. There's no Amazon for services. And, you know, think about, like,
you can hit a button in a car can pick you up. You can hit a button and food can be delivered to
you. But what about hitting a button having 80 other things possible? You know, I don't know if any
one market is large, but if you add up the 80 different service verticals, that to me is
another pretty big market.
And then maybe the last one is like living, stays longer than 30 days.
More and more people have a job via a laptop.
More people are nomadic.
More people are moving around.
That's another really big market.
So I think for Airbnb, we're looking at really expanding to a lot of different categories,
and I think that's where most of the growth is going to be in the future.
Do billboards in San Francisco work on you?
going back to marketing.
It's one of these old things where, like, yes, I completely agree with you.
Like the CMO who did the first billboard campaign back in the 50s, probably printed, legend,
you know, books written about them.
The billboard campaign that fell off.
Now it's a couple of years was just buy so many billboards that people are like, wait,
how did this company buy so many billboards?
Yeah.
And so I'm wondering, is your thesis on marketing that these things go in cycles?
And yes, we might be out of the influence.
marketing meta right now, but it's going to come back in five, ten years, who knows?
That's possible.
Or is it rise and fall and then never again?
I think these channels, though, they don't go away.
They just stop being like, if you do this thing, you're going to grow like crazy.
You still need to do that thing, but it's no longer an art.
Okay.
Yeah, what do you think?
You guys are, okay, so one thing I have to acknowledge is I think all of us,
advertising works better on us than we admit.
Yep.
I honestly, we spent a lot on like all these ads, and I kind of think to myself, do these
really influence people like and if they do and if they didn't we wouldn't be spending like a
billion dollars here in advertising so I want to admit that advertising does influence us more
than we realize there's I think a lot of studies that show like oh that doesn't change my mind
but you see something seven times and it probably even if you don't want to believe it you
might start believing it yep so clearly it works yeah I do think though the ROI of new ideas
works a lot better just for example we spent a lot in advertising but the most popular marketing
we've ever done is like when the Barbie movie came out we took
house and Malibu, we turned to the Barbie Malibu Dream House, and it was like new, and the whole
internet talked about it, and the ROI that was better than any ad we've ever done, right?
We've done things like that.
So I do think doing kind of crazy, slightly unhinged things that people notice, like, I mean,
you guys are successful because you're different, right?
I think.
I think being different is the key to marketing.
And so if you have a billboard, people are probably influenced, but if it looks different
than another billboard, it's going to work.
So I think the key to marketing is to be different, because you've got to stand out.
Yeah.
Yeah.
The Red Bull Baumgartner, the skydive from space, is I think like a thousand X ROI.
I think they spent less than a million dollars on that.
And I think it has a billion views or something like that.
Space, Airbnbee.
But if like 10 people did that and the 10 one work as well.
Yeah.
And that's probably why they didn't do a sequel and then another one and they went and found
something else.
Let's put a plane through a tunnel or fly a, you know,
a hot air balloon upside down or something.
Get a blimp on Airbnb that I can go on a sky cruise.
Sleeping in a blimp, yeah.
So that would be a very good idea.
Maybe we can talk about it.
I'd love that.
Ship it.
We'll podcast.
Yeah, I don't know how long it takes to get to.
Yeah, L.A. to San Francisco.
If it takes me two days, three days, but I have a beautiful view.
Would you guys do that?
I would 100% do that.
It would be good advertising for us and you.
So we say things like this all the time where we're like, oh yeah, like we'll
definitely like do something. Oftentimes it's hard to schedule, but we have been talking about
blimps for like over a year. We know we can broadcast. We've been having to happen with a blimp
we've been having guests calling from their jets with Starlink and the connection is perfect.
It is. So much so that people in our chat sometimes don't know that the person's on a plane.
Okay, you've heard of here first. Airbnb and TBPN are going to work together on a blimp partnership.
You guys are going to broadcast across the country on a blimp. I love it.
And he's going to be a part of that.
I want to make this work.
Let's figure out.
Let's talk.
Fantastic.
Well, thank you so much for coming on the show.
Have a great weekend and we'll talk to you soon.
You're the man.
Bye.
Bye, guys.
