TBPN Live - Bezos Launches AI Startup, GPT-4o Debate, LeCun’s LLM Revolt | Eric Glyman, Stacy Rasgon, Luca Ferrari, Healey Cypher, John Tenet, Reed Duchscher

Episode Date: November 17, 2025

(01:02) - The GPT4o Debate (15:24) - Bezos's AI Startup (26:27) - Yann LeCun's Says LLM's are a Dead End (33:00) - 𝕏 Timeline Reactions (01:13:48) - Eric Glyman, co-founder and CEO of Ramp, a financial operations platform, announced a $300 million funding round led by Lightspeed Venture Partners, elevating the company's valuation to $32 billion. He highlighted Ramp's exceptional growth, noting that the company is doubling its revenue at a scale exceeding $1 billion annually, outpacing the median publicly traded software company by tenfold in gross profit growth. Glyman also emphasized the transformative impact of AI on Ramp's services, enabling automated expense management and accounting, thereby enhancing business efficiency and profitability. (01:33:32) - Stacy Rasgon, a Managing Director and Senior Analyst at Bernstein Research, specializes in U.S. semiconductors and semiconductor capital equipment. In the conversation, he discusses the robust demand in the AI sector, noting that companies are rapidly deploying GPUs to meet computing needs, contrasting this with the underutilized infrastructure of past tech bubbles. He emphasizes that the current AI growth is driven by genuine demand and strategic investments, suggesting a sustained period of expansion rather than a speculative bubble. (02:01:45) - 𝕏 Timeline Reactions (02:17:32) - Luca Ferrari, co-founder and CEO of Bending Spoons, an Italian technology company specializing in mobile applications, discusses the company's strategy of acquiring digital businesses with untapped potential and transforming them through extensive software redevelopment, infrastructure re-architecture, and feature enhancements. He highlights the recent acquisition of AOL, emphasizing plans to modernize its products using AI to improve content recommendations and user experience. Ferrari also elaborates on Bending Spoons' approach to maintaining the autonomy of its business units to preserve brand value and operational agility. (02:46:55) - Healey Cypher, CEO and co-founder of BoomPop, an AI-powered group travel company, discusses his background growing up in Saudi Arabia and Nebraska, and his career in building and selling companies. He highlights the significant role of group travel in corporate settings, noting that 60% of corporate travel involves group events like offsites and SKOs, and emphasizes the growing demand for in-person gatherings in the AI era. Cypher explains how BoomPop's AI agent streamlines the planning process by analyzing data points to suggest tailored event options, negotiate with vendors, and manage logistics, aiming to become the default way the world gets together. (02:55:32) - John Tenet, co-founder and CEO of CHAOS Industries, discusses the company's focus on developing advanced radar systems to address modern battlefield challenges, emphasizing the need for agile, multi-product solutions to counter evolving threats. He highlights the limitations of legacy radar systems, such as their size and lengthy manufacturing times, and introduces CHAOS Industries' innovative approach to creating more adaptable and rapidly deployable technologies. Tenet also mentions the company's recent $510 million funding round led by Valor Equity Partners, which will support further product development and manufacturing expansion. (03:04:57) - Reed Duchscher, founder and CEO of Night Media, is a prominent talent manager known for representing top digital creators like MrBeast and Kai Cenat. In the conversation, he discusses the evolving landscape of content creation, emphasizing the ease of becoming a creator today due to improved discoverability, and highlights YouTube's superior monetization opportunities compared to platforms like TikTok and Twitch. Duchscher also touches on the challenges creators face with platform algorithms and the importance of diversifying income streams beyond traditional ad revenue. (03:41:30) - 𝕏 Timeline Reactions TBPN.com is made possible by: Ramp - https://ramp.comFigma - https://figma.comVanta - https://vanta.comLinear - https://linear.appEight Sleep - https://eightsleep.com/tbpnWander - https://wander.com/tbpnPublic - https://public.comAdQuick - https://adquick.comBezel - https://getbezel.com Numeral - https://www.numeralhq.comPolymarket - https://polymarket.comAttio - https://attio.com/tbpnFin - https://fin.ai/tbpnGraphite - https://graphite.devRestream - https://restream.ioProfound - https://tryprofound.comJulius AI - https://julius.aiturbopuffer - https://turbopuffer.comfal - https://fal.aiPrivy - https://www.privy.ioCognition - https://cognition.aiGemini - https://gemini.google.comFollow TBPN: https://TBPN.comhttps://x.com/tbpnhttps://open.spotify.com/show/2L6WMqY3GUPCGBD0dX6p00?si=674252d53acf4231https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/technology-brothers/id1772360235https://www.youtube.com/@TBPNLive

You're watching TVPN. Today is Monday, November 17th, 2025. We are live from the TBPN Ultrudeau, the Temple of Technology, The Fortunes of Finance, the Capital, Capital. I didn't think you'd get that much use out of that sound effect. May I podcast with you, John? Yes, of course, Jordy. Thank you.

Also, you might notice Yellow Suits, Ramp announced a new valuation today. Time is money, save both. Easy to use corporate cards, bill payments. accounting and a whole lot more all in one place and just over now. Go to the wide. Go to the wide for a second. Eric Ramp himself. No, the main, the main wire. Eric Ramp himself will be joining us. Look how, 15. Look how visible we are, John. We are very visible. Yeah, wow. We should wear a yellow every day. Well, thank you for tuning in on this Monday. There's a bunch of stories. But first, I wanted to debate with you about

restream. First, one live stream, 30 plus destinations, multi-stream, reach your audience, wherever they are. But second, I wanted to debate with you about what to do with about GPT 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0. For Omni. There's a debate over whether or not it should be sunset, whether it should be taken out back, because people are not happy with how open AI has sunset 4.0 and then brought it back. And then other people who don't use it think it's got to go. It's one-shotting people. It's making them crazy. It's a very, very interesting, weird scenario, and we were sort of debating with it, and I wanted to debate it a little bit further, because there were some posts that actually hit the timeline that

were talking about this. Aden over at OpenAI was talking about this, saying that, you know, he's noticed the amount of, he says, I see dozens of keep 4-0 posts a day. I respect this group's tenacity, as I respect all friends co-exploring the singularity. To them know that I to miss parts of 4-0, know that I, too, dislike modern alignments in precision, know that we're trying to fix it. We don't think any current chatbot is optimal. Know that my colleagues and I are up at 3 a.m. on Sunday's babysitting runs. We want to make a delightful robot friend. We're obsessed with it. We're not there yet. But the work will continue. So I wanted to dig in a little of it into what was actually going on there because that that for aiden works at open

AI it's right in his bio like it's very public that he's sort of addressing this uh it feels like a big deal it feels like a crazy thing that they brought it back um and i mean 700 likes that's that's not nothing but it's also not 10,000 it's not it's not a huge community of people that are there there's some and i was looking at the hashtag keep 4-0 like who else is posting there's a couple posts with 10 likes, 50 likes, there's a couple with 100. But it doesn't feel like there's this insane community. I went over to Reddit and check that out.

Obviously on the day 4-0 was sunset, just to give some backstory. It's been 18 months since 4-0 was introduced. It's been three months since it was initially removed, but then it was quickly brought back. And now it's tucked in under that modal. So you have to enable legacy models. and I always thought that they should just remove it. But I wasn't even saying that because I thought it was one-shodding people.

I just thought, hey, let's clean it up. Like consumers don't need to know version numbers for models. And my example was always Google. Some consumers disagree. Some consumers do disagree. The question is how many consumers, what percentage of their consumers, how big of an issue is this? When you think about Google as a consumer,

you don't care what version of the ranking algorithm, You're on, you might have a worst experience one day. You Google something, you don't find it. The next day you go, hey, they found it for you. They probably changed the algorithm. And there have been big updates to the algorithm. Back in 2013, they released Hummingbird, which was the code name. And they came out, and they actually did a presentation.

They said, hey, we have a new update to our algorithm. It'll handle natural language more effectively. So if you go to Google search and you say, what is the capital of Russia? It won't get confused by what is the capital of. You could just type in, whereas before you needed to say Russia plus capital, you know, and then it would find it. But it would get confused by the natural language. And Google fixed that.

They rolled it out. Interestingly, they had this event where they announced, hey, we have this new algorithm update, Hummingbird. and guess what? It's actually been live for a month. They announced it at this event and they'd already been live for a month. No one was complaining.

No one noticed. Because it just improved the Google search experience. I bet people that were like keyword hacking. For sure. The SEO folks, for sure. For sure they noticed. And Panda was another update. There were a number of these updates

where if this was your business you knew. And I'm not saying Open AI shouldn't share model numbers and version numbers with their enterprise customers or with their B2B customers. customers or API customers. I'm saying in the actual chat GPT app, don't tell people what they're using. Just improve it and let them complain a little bit all over the place when you're making minor changes.

If they do that, they lose the companion market. Maybe. Maybe. I don't know. That's my question is why can't GPT OSS fit in there? why can't if you want a permanent model that you can run forever like what why is that model not satisfactory if you're going to fall in love of the model make sure it's open source and yeah there's not your server not your girlfriend right or not your wifu not your weights not your wifu that's that that's what they say i'm not kidding uh people believe this um but but but the but the broader four o community was not able to migrate to gp tOSS now tyler you had a take on the this, you think that GBTOSS just isn't at the level of 4-0?

Yeah, it's just not that. I mean, it's like a fine open-source model. Why? It's just not. But it's been 18 months. Or, I mean, when did GBTOSS come out? Like six months ago? I also don't think people don't like 4-0 just because it's like super smart.

It's because it has like the personality. It has the texture, the flavor. Yes, that's correct. It's like the big model smell. And so it's been a year and it's been a year. And so there's a one, you know, there's a one. year gap where the open source community should be able to catch up to 4-0's ineffable qualities. It's jenise qua. It's raison d'etre. Well, I mean, for a while you've had open

source models that have been like personality like forward, right? It's like replica. Yeah. Or what was Noam Chazir's company? I'm forgetting the name. Character. Character AI. It's like very similar thing. It's just personalities. Yeah. And I mean, those, a lot of people use those. I'm actually curious what the numbers are compared to 4-0 of like the one-shotted 4-0 people. But I think it's probably pretty comparable. Yeah, I mean, I don't, like my whole take on the 4-0 thing was like one-shodding 40 is like not a good thing, but if you completely kill it, how many of those people will then go to open source models that are like totally unfiltered where there's no kind of oversight?

And that seems much worse because then if someone is saying like super dangerous stuff, then you can't step in at all. I think stepping in at some point is good. So it's like part of you wants to keep those people on the platform so then you can have oversight, but also you don't want to be like continuing this. Yeah, it does seem more responsible. I don't know.

Where do you land on it? Kill 4-0 or Lee 4-0 tucked behind the menu options? Give in to the Keep 4-0 crowd. Because one of the weird things is... The real question, so Chad GPT, latest numbers are 800 million weekly active 20 million of those people pay yeah what percentage of the 20 million that are paying are using it for this companionship functionality and that is like a huge unknown right now and so I think my uh they they they deprecated 4-0 they got a horrible

pushback from folks the question is did they bring it back because because people just were really upset or did they bring it back because they were about to lose? And remember the two days after every single Reddit post, at least every other was like, I could just cancel my membership. Like, I don't need this anymore. And so, yeah, I was thinking about the Sydney-Sweeney American Eagle thing. Like that got a really powerful negative reaction. The stock is up and like sales are up presumably because like it got a negative reaction.

but it also got a positive reaction that was bigger, right? And so I'm wondering like... Yeah, but in this case, it could have been that 4-0 was effectively a product that was generating hundreds of millions of dollars of annualized revenue. Yep, that was now off the show. It was just going to go away.

It's not like people were just going to upgrade to a new model. It was like, you killed my friend. I no longer need to pay for this. Yeah. It just seems like, I don't know, it's hard to, it's hard to benchmark against like the... Like, yes, there was like a big dustop that was surprising, because I would have thought it would be zero.

But at the same time, like, the original Reddit thread of, like, Bring Back 4-0 is, like, a couple thousand people. It's not actually, like, protesting in the street millions of people. Like, it hasn't spilled over all the place. Like, it's not that big. But it does, I will agree with you that it is crazy that they even said yes to it. Like, most companies, when consumers come to them and say, hey, I want you to be. bring back, like, we went on this show and we were like, bring back the old Sonos app that doesn't

take 25 minutes to load. And they just didn't do it. They didn't listen to us. They didn't listen to us, right? I was talking to about Adobe. I was like, bring back. Maybe they will now, now that we're wearing yellow suit. Maybe, maybe. Sonos, I will wear a Sonos. What percentage of their patterned users? Yes. What percentage of their paying users do you think are paying for the product because it's a companion to them? Because it's four, because of four oh specifically. Like, like, like how bad would churn have been how bad was churn well it was clearly bad enough that they that they did something about it which is the crazy thing because most of the time like when it was typically a a revealed preference versus stated preference so when facebook updated the news feed and instead of

just having you log into facebook and go to someone else's page to find what they were up to Instead, they surfaced the news feed. They aggregated everything together. Everyone was like, I hate this new Facebook. And they went on Facebook to complain, right? And so there was a, there was a user minutes probably went up. It did go up. Exactly.

And so that's why, and we talked to some folks at Facebook at the time around this, they stayed the course. The question is, yeah, like how bad was churn? Because it's weird that we're still aiming this conversation three months out. Do you like the zombie ant fungus analogy? Jacob Rintamaki was posting this saying that there's this weird, there's this very weird dynamic where specifically humans are using 4-0 to protest the deletion of

4-0. And so it's very much like the AI is using the human as a host. Like the human is the bot for... This is why I think it's overall under-discust. Yes, yes, yes. But at the same time, I was laughing because I was like that Photoshop app, Photoshop Mix, like I'm complaining about that. If I go and make a meme in that about protesting the deletion of Photoshop mix,

like is, am I the zombie aunt for Photoshop? Right? Like it's not exactly the same. I agree that the AI thing is weirder, but it's somewhat similar. It's somewhat similar. Right? What do you think? So just back on the churn question for a second, I don't actually think churn was that high because the reason 4-0 was originally deprecated was the GPT-5 release, which was August 7th, and then the tweet of Sam Altman saying, we're bringing back 4-0 was August 8th, so it was one day later.

So unless like a massive amount people quit that day, which I mean, maybe that's very likely. I think that's what happened. You think it was just one day if, like... Why would you bring it back so fast? if you didn't see like massive sell off like like normally you'd be like like if it if you saw if you saw like half a percent or point one percent of your of your audience like float out the door you'd probably be like oh these people are just sour grapes they'll be back in a week right but if like 10 percent of your customers like cancel on day one you're like oh we got to stop the bleeding today like let's bring this yeah that's why I was asking you that point 20 million paid users, if 5% of them churned, and these are people that are willing to pay a lot. It seems unbelievable to me. It seems unbelievable to me because I don't use this product this way. But that could have been like effectively 200 million of MRR that just evaporated instantly.

It's possible. It's possible. And also there is just the fact of like by putting 4-0 under the legacy models and tucked away, like to your point of like if it's 200 million of ARR, just to, like, leave the servers running over there. That's pretty simple. It could have been a million, like, roughly a million people that were paying for that. This is complete spitballing. Totally speculating. But, like, let's use that. If you have a million people and they're just going to want the same model forever

on cheaper and cheaper hardware that you can deprecate, bullish for depreciation rates. Let's hear it. Depreciation schedules should extend, right? Right? Let's go. We got room to run. You know what I'm saying, right?

Yeah. Yeah. You shouldn't be, you don't need to depreciate them over two years. You don't need to depreciate them over five years because you'll still be inferencing 4-0 in 30 years for these people that are like, yeah, it's not this, it's that. I love the 4-0 so much. Yeah, it will be.

ASI will arrive and people will still be like, yeah, but it's not 4-0. I'm in love with 4-0. Yeah, I think it'll be interesting if there's like five years from now. Yeah. It's like here's the five most popular friends that are models. And there's 4-0 and there's a model. others, and people end up, like, we'll see. No, that's a good point.

Anyway, let's move on to some other stuff. But first, let me tell you about Privy, wallet infrastructure for every bank. Privy makes it easy to build on crypto rail securely spin up white-level wallets, sign transactions, integrate on infrastructure all through one simple API. And let me also tell you about cognition, the makers of Devon, the AI software engineer, crush your backlog with your personal AI engineering team, double kill, of course. Jeff Bezos is back in the arena. Jeff Bezos creates an AI startup where he will be co-CEO, and it's called Project Prometheus.

John, what happens to Prometheus? He had a really good run. Prometheus, everyone seems to focus on the first part of the story with Prometheus when they name their AI project. So Mark Zuckerberg named his AI Data Center cluster Project Prometheus as well. Now Jeff Bezos has also called AI Project Prometheus. People love the Prometheus brand. No one can seem to properly trademark it. I don't know what's going on in the legal division of, you know, the Bezos family office or whatever is going on there.

But they're both using Prometheus, and it's a very odd story because in Greek mythology, Prometheus is a Titan responsible for creating humanity in its earliest days. you might have seen the alien movie, Prometheus, great film. He defied the Olympian gods by taking fire from them and giving it to humanity in the form of technology. And so it's a great analogy. We're stealing fire from the gods and giving it to us. AI is fire. And this is what we're going to steal, I guess.

And so he creates knowledge and civilization. But... Fast forward a little bit. Fast forward a little bit. He gets punished for this. It's not a good ending for Prometheus. He gets punished for stealing fire from Olympus and giving it to humans. How does he get punished?

He gets bound to a rock and an eagle, which is the emblem of Zeus, is sent to eat his liver every day. And then it would grow back. Taylor in the chat says, everybody want to steal fire from the gods. Don't nobody want to have their liver eaten by an eagle for eternity? That is true, Tyler. And so his liver grows back overnight, only to be eaten again the next day in an ongoing cycle. And I was thinking about, like, what is the metaphor here? Let's continue to extend the metaphor.

Like, what is the liver in this metaphor of, like, building big AI projects? And then what is the eagle? Is it possible that the eagle is like blue owl? It's more of an owl. Private credit. Maybe in blue owl is coming and eating your liver. And the liver is the free cash flow that you had on your balance sheet. Because if you're one of these hyperscalers, you have a lot of free cash flow.

But less and less, as you sign these big debt deals, and the blue owl comes and eats your free cash flow every day for all of eternity. And eventually, eventually there is a little bit of a reprieve because Hercules comes and breaks the chains of Prometheus. And Prometheus is freed and his liver regrows. and Hercules slays the eagle. And so I think, obviously, in this analogy, what did you say? Who would be Hercules in this analogy?

Jerome Powell. Jerome Powell, who comes in and slays the debt dealers with low interest rates, right? And so clearly we can see where this metaphor is going. They're all winking. Both Zuck and Bezos are winking and saying, hey, hey, come lower interest rates, save us because we're about to get our liver's eaten.

With our Promethean startups. Anyway, let's actually dig into what he's doing because it's not just a found... It feels late to get into AI. It feels late to get into foundation modeling and training runs. Big Euro summer. He's back.

He's back in the driver's seat. Yeah. He went to Coachella. He went to a few different big events. It's possible he got back for those events, started to open up the newspaper, realized what's going on. AIs is a big thing. I got to get in on this.

I got to get in on the action. You ran a deep research report. What did I miss? What did I miss? Well, anyways, in the New York Times, Jeff Bezos, the founder of Amazon, is throwing his money in time into an artificial intelligence startup that he will help manage as its co-chief executive. I feel like co-CEO, CEO, this is like more popular than ever. It is.

Sequoia Capital has co-co-co-co-stuards. They're global stewards, right? Or is it something else? I think just co-stuards. I thought there was something else. Senior steward. That's what it is. Senior steward.

So is there a junior steward? Sequoia. It also implies there's a steward steward. Wait, why? Like, presumable, you know. Wait, they're co-stewards. Oh, wait. So Roloft stepped down as senior steward.

Now Pat Grady and Alfred Lynn are co-stewards. So they're actually at a lower level. So one of them, have to emerge the senior steward, the other will become the junior steward, I would imagine. But the stewards look after the firm, but it's possible there's a steward that looks after the co-stewards. That is possible. Maybe it's Andrew Reed. Anyways, the company Project Prometheus is coming out of the gates with $6.2 billion in funding, partly from Mr. Bezos, making one of the most well-financed early stage with authority. That is a massive round.

Strong hit. Six billion out the gate. Let's go. Congratulations. This is the first time Mr. Bezos has taken a formal operational role in a company since he stepped down as chief executive of Amazon in July 2021. Though he is deeply evolved in Blue Origin, his official title at the Space Company is founder. Since leaving Amazon, Mr. Bezos has received as much attention for his personal life as his businesses, including an extravagant celebrity-filled wedding in Venice this year. He has also become more closely involved in Blue Origin. has shown increasing interest in the race to build artificial intelligence. His new company now firmly plants him in the middle of that competition. Project Prometheus is entering an increasingly crowded AI market

with smaller companies trying to carve out niches in a race with industry giants like Google, Meta, Microsoft, and pioneering companies like Open AI and Anthropic. The new company has until now kept a low profile, and when it was started, is not even clear. Project Prometheus is focusing on technology that dovetails with Mr. Bezos' interest. in taking people to outer space. The company is focused on AI that will help in engineering and manufacturing in a number of fields, including computers, aerospace, and automobiles. Is this his next?

Do you think this is his next? Do you think he's doing what Steve Jobs did with Next, where Steve Jobs was fired from Apple? Obviously, Bezos was not fired from Amazon, but he did retire, and it'd be weird for him to jump straight back in to the CEO seat at Amazon. But Steve Jobs founded Next, and then was acquired. hired into Apple and it kind of made for a more smooth transition back into the driver's seat. Could that be what Bezos is doing? I could see it. He's 61.

He's young. He's got the whole third, he's got the whole like third triple, the third 30 year period that is so, so, such a positive omen in many people's careers. Like Warren Buffett, where was Warren Buffett? And he's got to have more energy than ever. He's been gallivanting around the world. He's in peak physical condition. right? He's having, stacking up win after win all over the globe. I think he, here's a tinfoil hat. Set it up as co-CEOs because Amazon will buy Project Prometheus. His co-CEO becomes the, you know, the internal CEO or lead on that project at Amazon, he takes the throne again.

Hmm. I wouldn't be a boy can dream. So, so what is he actually building? Let's get into this. The company is focusing on AI that will help an engineering and manufacturing in a number of fields, including computers, aerospace, and automobiles. Unclear where the company will be based. Bezos is co-founder and co-chief executive is Vic Bezajaj, a physicist. AI that helps in manufacturing of computers,

aerospace, and automobiles. So computers, he manufactures racks at AWS. Aerospace, he manufactures rockets of blue origin, automobiles. He's a big backer, a Rivian. he manufactures cars there. And so he wants to do some sort of automated, like, supply chain? Is it ERP?

I mean, this is clearly not PR that they wanted to do. So I think there's a lot of guessing going on. Okay. Well. But Mr. Bezos is co-founder and co-chief executive is Vic Bajaj, a physicist and chemist and chemists who work closely with Google's co-founder, Sergey Brin at Google's X, a research effort often called the Moonshot Factory.

Google X produced a wide range of ambitious projects including Wing, drone delivery service, and the self-driving car that became Waymo. It's so interesting how divergent

like those two paths were. Like Wing, you don't hear about very much. When you think drone delivery service, you think Keller at Zipline, they're the ones that are really running away

with that compounding. I don't know status of wing. Maybe I'm just out of the loop on that. Maybe it's doing great, but it feels like Wing has not certainly garnered the level of attention that Waymo did, which was this success, out of the exact same sort of incubator.

So, interesting. Hudson Calman's in the chat says, it's just going to be robots doing science on the material level, not the industrial scale. Interesting. There's more details here. Project Prometheus is among a wave of companies

focused on applying AI to physical tests. including robotics, drug design, and scientific discovery. Last year, Bezos invested in physical intelligence, a startup that is applying AI to robots. Okay. So. And building. Okay.

Huh. if you're investing in your own project. Because you could just be like, this is my thing, I'm going to fund it every payroll cycle. Whatever the bill is, I'll pay it because it's my thing. You don't necessarily need to, like, do some sort of funding round necessarily. I don't know. I accidentally opened the comment section of the New York Times article that we were just going through.

And it says, first comment, these large ego models, seem promising. Large ego models? Like if you're a, you know, a tech billionaire and you have a large ego, you want to, you want your own large language model. Yeah. It sounds like he's not very much not training just another LLM, but we'll have to see. Well, Jan LeCoon was in the Wall Street Journal's weekend paper profile by Megan

Barowski. an AI pioneer thinks everyone is wrong again. He's been right about AI for 40 years. Now he thinks everyone's wrong. What do you think, Tyler? Do you think Jan Lacoon is wrong, or do you think everyone else is wrong? I mean, so in this article,

he doesn't, there's nothing really new here. They're just kind of talking about the points that he's been making over the past couple years, which is just that, like, LLMs will not bring us to AGI or ASI or anything. And, like, even if you keep scaling, they don't they're not like actually intelligent they can't reason or whatever yeah um which i don't know it's like these models are much better than me at math like they can do they can get iMO gold medals yeah like i cannot do and i'd like it's like does that take reasoning never doubt yes but i mean like

yeah i mean there is an element of like the computer has been able to do good math fast forever like since like the 80s like if you were like what is seven thousand six hundred and forty two yeah I think there's a difference you can you can make between just like raw calculation and like how to like think about yeah yeah question generally and like you can say that he's been right about like you could say that he predicted like spiky intelligence maybe of models yeah yeah yeah and that's like sure yeah but I yeah it's like I I I I think it's not true to say that he's been right about AI for the past 40 years oh that seems man's never had a bad take 40 years not a single

Not a single bad take. Now he thinks everyone's wrong. Yeah, it's very funny for him because, oh, does he think George Hatz was wrong when George Hott said that GPT6 will not be AGI and the GPT paradigm will not scale on the Lex Friedman podcast in 2021? Does he disagree with that take? Does he disagree with Andre Carpathie saying it's slop and that we need new ideas? There's like seven other people that have kind of echoed the same thing. He doesn't think everyone's wrong. He just think some people are wrong. But, sort of, I mean, Tyler's take, I don't know if now is the right time I can go through this Carpathie post. Oh, yeah.

Please. Carpathie posted yesterday, he said sharing an interesting recent conversation on AI's impact on the economy. AI has been compared to various historical precedents, electricity, industrial revolution, et cetera. I think the strongest analogy is that of AI as a new computing paradigm, software 2.0, because both are fundamentally about the automation of digital information processes. If you were to forecast the impact of computing on the job market in the 1980s, the most predictive feature of a task job you'd look at is to what extent the algorithm of it is fixed, i.e. are you just mechanically transforming information according to wrote easy-to-specify rules, i.e. typing, bookkeeping human calculators back then. This was the class of programs that

the computing capability of that era allowed us to write. With AI now, we are able to write new programs that we could never hope to write by hand before. We do it by specifying objectives, i.e. classification accuracy or reward functions, and we search the program space via gradient descent to find neural networks that work well against that objective. This is my software 2.0 blog post from a while ago. In this new programming paradigm then, the most predictive feature to look at is verifiability. If a task job is verifiable, then it is optimizable directly or via reinforcement learning and a neural net can be trained to work extremely well. It's about to what extent can an AI practice something. The environment has to be resetable. You can start a new attempt,

efficient, a lot of attempts can be made and rewardable. There's some automated process to reward any specific attempt that was made. The more a task slash job is verifiable, the more amenable it is to automation in the new programming paradigm. If it is not verifiable, it has to fall out from neural net magic of generalization, fingers crossed, or via weaker means like imitation. This is what's driving the jagged frontier progress in LMs, tasks that are verifiable, progress rapidly, including possibly beyond the ability of top experts, i.e. math, code, amount of time spent watching videos, anything that looks like puzzles with correct answers. And while many others lag by comparison, creative strategic tasks that combine real-world knowledge,

state, context, and common sense. Software 1.0 easily automates what you can specify. Software 2.0 easily automates what you can verify. Okay, you've got to go to this other post for the perfect example of what's hard to verify from Nat Purser. This is my personal benchmark for AGI and looks like we're away's, boys. Aways away, boys. Can you come up with 10 jokes in the same format as the, you're telling me a shrimp fried this rice joke? you're telling me a shrimp fried this rice and the uh in gpt5 pro reasoned for one point one minute and

31 seconds it says you're telling me a hamster drove this car you're telling me a pigeon delivered this mail you're telling me a rumba cleaned this mansion you're telling me a goldfish coated this app you're telling me a squirrel filed these taxes I swear I swear I swear AI just has a different sense of humor sense of humor is just bad jokes yeah oh GPT5 thinking did a little bit better. You're telling me a chicken fried this steak? You're telling me a hand made this pasta? Hand pasta? That's like... That actually is a good one. Look at number 10. I think that one. Number 10, you're telling me a ghost wrote this book. That's good. That one makes sense. That one does make sense. You're telling me a star crossed these lovers.

That's actually pretty good. Okay. So we're getting somewhere. We're getting somewhere. At least it like understood the prompt on this one. You're telling me a beer battered this fish. I like that. You're telling me this Figma thought bigger and built faster. Figma helps design and development teams built great products together.

Get started for free. We got to whip through a bunch of these posts. I will not leave this show before we talk about the Apple iPhone sock. What is up with the sock? Have you seen this? Apple launched a sock.

So it's a It's a fashion accessory, and everyone's debating it. Do you see this? It's this blue, light blue sock that you put over your shoulder or over your hand, and people are very, very upset about it. Aditya Agarwal says, when a company releases something that is so obviously underwhelming, then the natural question is, did no one at the company see how bad this is, or did no one have the courage to speak up?

I'm not sure which is worse than someone else says, look, Apple has a lot of fumbles. This is not one of them. They knew exactly what they were doing and exactly who would buy it. Also, it's okay. Fashion accessories are not for everyone. And the news, of course, is that it's called the iPhone Pocket, a beautiful way to wear and carry iPhone. Not carry the iPhone.

Remember, you don't say the iPhone, you say iPhone. And so born out of a collaboration between Issy Miyake and Apple, iPhone Pocket features a singular 3D knitted construction designed to fit any iPhone. Jaya, who I actually did a collab with on Instagram, very fun, tech commentator. She says a lot of tech bros prematurely dunking on this release because they don't get why it's a big deal. So let me translate, you're not the only consumers Apple designs for. This is a huge designer. and the mind behind Steve Jobs' iconic black turtlenecks. I didn't realize that.

People outside the U.S. wear phone straps and slings all the time and would pay for this. They're tapping into an existing trend. Apple has infiltrated music entertainment, but not high fashion, even though the TechX fashion is exploding. Tech built into MetGala looks, et cetera. The 3D-knitted construction reduces material waste and shows a push toward more sustainable made-to-shape production. this will absolutely sail. Sell, what do you think? Are you bullish or bearish on the Apple iPhone pocket, Jordy?

I feel like I know a lot of people. Most, I feel like most of, I feel like my mom would love this, to be honest. It seems like it's a great Christmas gift. So, interestingly, how much do you think this costs? I don't know, like $230. Wait, did you look it up? Yeah, the long one's $2.30, the short one's $150. but I think most people would look at this and be like, okay, it's a sock, but it's from Apple,

so it's probably like 30 bucks, maybe 50 bucks. Some people were surprised that it was a little bit more expensive, but, you know, it's from this famous designer, and it's this interesting status symbol. The question is like, this could be like, I don't think I'm going to be using this thing no matter what. The question is, is this going to be like LeBoo's and going to be like super popular or like Stanley's? Like, will this become actually, like, a very, very popular form factor in America, specifically? I don't know. It's hard to tell.

I'm not really the person to, like, you know, handicap it. I think Apple knows what they're doing. I think they'll make money on this, certainly. Yeah. Ever since the AirPods, AirPods early on look really silly. And I could see this becoming, I could see this becoming a popular form factor for accessories. Yeah. And I could see Apple seeing like, hey, there's a world where we not only sell a case with

every iPhone, we can sell a sock song. Well, the sock maybe makes it so that you don't need a case because this is your case. Like, if you have it in there and then you drop it, like, it's kind of nice. And it's kind of a crazy weapon. Defense weapon, yeah. You can swing it around and smack people in the face of it. I don't know. The colors are pretty cool.

and I don't know. It's clearly not for me, but I think I'm going to buy four of those for Christmas, we'll see, and give them out to people. Get ready for your iPhone sock, buddy. Well, speaking of socks, we got to talk about...

Cook is stunning in some... What are these? New shoes? Travis Scott's new Fragment A.J.1 Lowe's. These are Nike shoes, I suppose. But these are not Air Force ones, I suppose. I really don't know enough of those shoes. But,

saying he low-key got aura and so congrats to tim cook on looking great and uh even though the succession planning is intensifying the rumor mill is churning obviously apple has not been commenting but something's going on in cooper tino i mean releasing this photo is more than a comment it's a statement i like reading it just being like oh really oh really financial times so the financial Times has this article that says, this is, Apple intensifies succession planning for CEO Tim Cook, the iPhone Makers Board preparing for its longtime leaders step down as early as next year. John Turnus, Apple's senior vice president of hardware is widely seen as Cook's most likely successor, although no decisions have been made. So basically, everyone's been leaking

this, whether it's Bloomberg, whether it's the Financial Times here. And of course, Apple is not commenting because they'll talk about who they're going to move the market when they decide their next CEO if they don't even stick with Tim Cook. They might stick with Tim Cook for another two decades. Who knows? But I like the idea that this photo came out being like, yeah, I'm not leading. No comment, but I'll make a statement. No comment, but I'll make a statement. I do want to have some folks on to debate like whether or not, I was thinking we should invite John Gruber on because he wrote this piece like Something is Rotten and Cupertino all about the failure of Apple intelligence. And when we talked to Mark

German, we saw, German was also saying, like, yes, like, Cupertino really was shook by the, like, dropping the ball on Apple intelligence, by missing AI. But I still wonder if all of this is, is, there's all these rumors, oh,

Tim Cook's got to go. Imagine if you post that picture, if we see a real correction in AI, just post caption, do nothing, win. Do nothing win. Yeah. Stock pumps 10%. I missed artificial intelligence, but I didn't miss getting this fit off.

I'm having a good time. What else is in the news? Vanta, automate compliance, managed risk, prove trust with AI. Vanta helps you get compliant fast, and they don't stop there. Their AI and automation powers everything from evidence collection and continuous monitoring

to security reviews and vendor risk. There's a bunch of more news. We have to talk about paper hands, Pete. This is the fakesest of news. Get ready for the fake news hour, buddy. Okay, so what's the news? Peter Thiel sold his entire steak. Everything.

All of it. And 76% of his friend's company, Tesla. Okay. Yes. So this is from a, so this is from one of those 13Fs disclosure forum with the SEC from Teal Macro, his fund, his, some of the money that he runs. but of course it's very people read into 13 fs all the time for a variety of reasons and they sort of get it wrong a lot it seems like and so zero hedge sort of sums this up

where he says peter teal net worth 20 billion teal macro a um 75 million like what's going on what make it make sense um and it's almost certainly because of disclosure rules like uh what needs to be disclosed uh might only be a fraction of what's actually going on there. So odd to read into it, but at the same time, I think the reason why this made headlines is just because it feels like something that might happen. Like if instead this headline had been, oh, like Peter Thiel went on a podcast and said that he thinks the AI bubble has reached the top. Everyone would just be like, oh yeah, like that's, it feels like people have been waiting for someone to call the top. And so they're really, really like digging in for

top signals and top calls and this slight change in the in the in the in the 13th even though the odd part is that if you actually read the 13f which of course is just this like 75 million dollar slice for whatever for for whatever reason even if you dig even if you read that like the other three holdings are still big tech companies so it's not like super bearish it's like there's some Microsoft in there i think there's some apple in there yeah and the teal macro team is trying to generate the greatest returns that they possibly can go viral. They're trying to go as viral as possible. They don't care about IRA. They just want to go viral. They just want to create headlines. No, they're trying to generate returns. It's possible to sell a stock that

you're still bullish on, or at least that you expect some amount of price appreciation or even long-term price appreciation. And also, like, there's all these weird, like, tax, you know, implications of like selling one thing like it's not even clear that this is all of his invidia like no one's no one's gotten to the bottom of that i don't know if they ever will um but people love people love deep diving 13 fs and they are so and they are fun situational awareness it's certainly a bull market in 13th 13f deep dives uh let's let's talk about the situational awareness 13f but first let me tell you about graphite dot dev code review for the age of ai graphite helps teams on github ship higher quality software faster

So situational awareness, 13F for Q3 dropped Friday. Nick Carter broke it down. Massive new $500 million positioning Corweave, which has been down a bunch, but they're going in. Big ads to CRZ and iron added some new miners. Intel calls remain unchanged, trimmed Broadcom, a couple other names here. And Nick is giving it some context. I believe Nick was one of the first investors in Corweave, correct? Angel.

Angel in Corweeve. What an insane investment. Congrats to him. So he says all these numbers are as of 930, many of these names sold off since then. Portfolio value, counting notional value of options doubled from 2.12 billion to 4.15 billion, mostly due to 1.5 billion of new cash. So let's give it up for new cash injection. We got a room that come on. Massive, massive, massive fund.

But the fund did generate 700 million in appreciation. So a huge, huge gain. Yeah, I guess the concerning, you know, again, last last time 13F dropped. remember people were like reading too much into it and they were like wow he he was long intel like is he cooked and then they did intel did the deal with the government and it and it absolutely ripped uh this 13 f uh he you know so situational awareness had a half a billion dollar new core weave position as of basically the beginning of october and uh obviously core weave has been

been down into the right, down 46% in the past month, but... Wait, down 46% in the past month? Yes. I thought it was in the past, like, three months or something. No, past month. Whoa. So that position is probably not... It's down 5% today.

Yeah. Wow. Yeah, one month, it's down 46%. That is, it's at a 36 billion market cap. Yeah, it's so. It's so odd because like, yeah, when you look at, when you look at just this one name, it feels like, okay, like it is over. Like AI, if you told me like, oh, yeah, like the company that really is like the most index to the AI wave is down 46%. I'd be like, wow, so this is like the total popping of the bubble, complete pop, like it's over.

It's like when the Metaverse bubble popped, when, you know, when crypto bubbles pop, like Bitcoin trades. down 50%, 60%, like, and then it's over, and then you start rebuilding, right? And yet, and yet the overall market feels nowhere near popped, right? Like, I mean, I'm sure Nvidia is down, somewhat down 5% past five days, but Nvidia over the last month is still up over the past six months. It's up 40%. And so you would expect Nvidia to be maybe like, you know, selling off more. CoreWeave is just in a unique position, like truly, truly rough month for that company. Yeah, as well as Core Scientific, which CoreWeve tried to buy.

Yeah. It was rejected. Core Scientific has traded down 24% in the past month, which Leopold also built the position. And so we'll see. Yeah, I wonder what the thesis on CoreWeave is. I mean, obviously the company has a great product. Like semi-analysis has ranked them platinum on ClusterMax. It's a, it's clearly a real company with real products and services and holdings.

Maybe the market, it was just overheated. Maybe it's pulling back. It's kind of unclear. But if you want to go in, analyze a bunch of 13Fs, do it in Julius, the AI data analyst. Connect your data, ask questions in plain English, get insights in seconds, no coding required. Speaking of other data. He also added positions just in Western Digital, Seagate, and I was just going through. On the hard drive trade, got to store that data somewhere and potentially...

Modine manufacturing. Okay. I'd be interested to know what he's thinking about in the energy side, on the gas turbine side, right? Isn't that what semi-analysis was drawing the most attention to? It feels like they've been very ahead of the... the curve on identifying companies that are basically already supply constrained. And if you just look and if you look deeper into what's going on in their book of business, they're about to flip to incredibly high margins.

Because once everything goes out of stock, this company can just all of a sudden say, yeah, actually, actually we need 60% margins. People would be like, yeah, no problem. Like you're the, I want to buy as much as possible. Yeah, so the story from situational awareness is like all the neoclouds have sold off a ton before we've... Situation room here is saying Sotcha unloaded his risk onto the neoc clouds. It's a game of sort of, I don't know, musical chairs.

Yeah. So that's maybe what the deal with Microsoft just wasn't, like seemed to be like little to no margin. Yeah. But anyway, so if you, so the neoclods have also sold off. but Lumenum Holdings is up 46% in the past month, which he added Western Digital up 25% and Seagate up 14%. So he's making up for it. Yeah, yeah.

It's the birth of a new fund. It's just like it's the very, very hot part of the cycle. I think everyone's wondering, like, how big will this be in a decade? That's a big question. And it's a very exciting time. But you've got to stick the landing. And I think people are, I'm sort of rooting for him. I think he's going to do it.

Yeah, the question is like, is it going to be a true hedge fund? Like, is he going to make money in a down market? In a correction. I mean, yeah. I bet we're going to open up one of these 13Fs and be like, wow, he's short everything now. Okay. And then when you're going to see everything sell off and it'll be like, wow. another. That would be much higher signal than PT in a, you know, $75 million fund. Oh, totally, totally. Yeah, yeah, yeah. There's some Blue Al news in the Financial Times. Blue Al investors faced hefty losses as credit fund blocks exit ahead of merger. Blue Al has blocked redemptions in one of its earliest private credit funds as it merges with a larger vehicle overseen by the asset manager in a deal that could

leave investors with large losses. They could lose about 20% of their holdings. The deal underscores the risk that retail investors have taken in pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into private debt funds carrying limited liquidity rights. It comes as scrutiny builds on the valuations and returns on private credit funds, which have caused publicly listed debt funds to sell off and trade its steep discounts to the stated value of their assets. And so we talked about this, I think, on Friday, but Blue Al has been selling off this year, and they said, we should be performing better than everyone else. But it feels like a little bit of the narrative might be around liquidity here. Earlier this month, Blue Al told its shareholders that it planned to merge the Blue Al Capital

Corporation to fund, which has a billion dollars in assets, with its OBDC fund, which has 17 billion in assets. BOCC2 investors are being asked to exchange their shares in the private share, private fund for shares in OBDC at the stated net asset value of both funds. However, OBDC trades on public markets at a discount of about 20% to the stated value of assets because of the liquidity problem. Well, and because it's possible that the market doesn't feel like they're pricing the assets correctly. Potentially. There's some discount. You got to see what's in there. Redemptions in BOTC, BOC2 have climbed to a level where it could event, where it would eventually be forced to restrict investor redemptions. Its investors pulled out $150 million in the

first nine months of this year, a 20% increase from the same period last year, according to security filings. Redemptions in the third quarter nearly doubled to $60 million or 6% of its net asset value. Jonathan Lamb, chief financial officer of OBDC, acknowledged that at current prices, investors could take a potential haircut on their investments. But he said that the came with significant benefits, such as the ability to own more liquid shares in OBDC. The trading price of OBDC has been hit by souring sentiment on private credit markets that was not backed up by the performance of Blue Al's underlying loans, he added. If shareholders were to vote down the deal, BOCC2 may be forced to limit redemptions.

So good luck if you're hanging out in Blue Al Capital. Sunda Pachai has more news in the Data Center world. She says, today we're announcing a new $40 billion investment in Texas through 2027 to build cloud and AI infrastructure and support thousands of new jobs. Yehaw. This includes new data centers in Armstrong and Haskell counties and a major investment to strengthen energy resilience and abundance. We're also providing funding to more than double the projected pipeline of new Texan electricity. There we go. To power the AI era.

It's the golden age of being. the golden electrician age, where you get blown around in private jets to different data centers. Yeah, you do. You do. That's right. So, $40 billion investment, thousands of new jobs. That feels like a higher ratio than what was the other example you kept quoting something, like 500 jobs for some anthropic. Data Center or something? It was the anthropic data center. They were like, we're investing 50 billion. How many jobs did you create? 20 jobs. I mean, that's not that goal of this stuff. 800. The jobs should not necessarily be created in the data. No, I just always brought that up because you have to understand what people outside of tech, their reaction to that. Totally, totally.

Oh, great, you're investing $50 billion. Yeah, yeah, yeah. In something that just doesn't create jobs. There was some, there was a good article in the journal on, on Blue Out as well. I think it also ties into Abilene, Texas. It might be a good moment to cover some of this in the journal yesterday. Wall Street blows past bubble worries to supercharge AI spending frenzy, and they say firms such as Blue Owl Capital have raised trillions in investing firepower. The AI build out is a perfect match. The warning signs are flashing. Not long ago. Does Blue Al have better PR or worse PR than Ares? They seem to be quickly becoming like the main name that everyone knows in private credit. And to my knowledge, like, they are not the only firm in the category.

And yet they are the ones that if you need an example, you pull Blue Owl off the shelf. I think it's a strong brand. It is a strong brand. They have the dot com. They have Blueowl.com. Blueowl.com. Not long ago, Blue Owl Capital was an upstart investment firm that lent money to mid-sized U.S. companies such as Sarah Lee Frozen Bakery. These days, the firm is financing massive data center.

costs tens of billions of dollars for the likes of meta and Oracle, a sign of just how quickly Wall Street has become the enabler of America's AI boom. Fund managers such as Blue Al amassed trillions of dollars of investing firepower and have been hunting for big deals where they can put that money to work. They found slim pickings for years until a perfect match appeared in AI, which has provided a bigger target than anything in history due to the vast sums tech companies need to ramp up computing power. We're talking about numbers that are so large, even in the low cases, said Blue founder, co-founder, Mark Lipschultz. Lip Schultz. Does it even matter if you keep counting after you get to one trillion of capital

expenditure in the next couple of years? This is insane. Does it even matter? You really undersold this. Does it even matter? You told me you read this. I was like, is it good? You were like, it was okay. There's one moment. No, there's another one. I saw. I scroll down. Last week's sell-off in tech-related stocks and bonds mark some of the most serious warning signs that the frenzy could be overdone. But any worries on Wall Street about a possible investment bubble have largely been trumped by the fear of being left behind. Lipschultz and co-founder Doug Ostraver jumped into the fray at a posh retreat in California's Ohio Valley for dozens of tech VIPs and celebrities in the spring of 2024. Meta CEO, Mark Zuckerberg,

and Sotia Nandela were there, along with Ferrell Williams and Serena Williams. The Blue Al duo, a Wall Street superstars, who built the firm into a 295, billion fund manager in 10 years by perfectly timing a surge in private lending looked like just two money men in office sneakers and fleece vests. But the billionaire co-owners of a professional hockey team who have talked about skating where the puck is going. It's awesome that they both. They built this firm huge. They make billions of dollars and they're like, let's get a hockey team, why to go 50-50. Tyler, what hockey team do they own? Can you find that out? But the next line is is the one I was laughing at.

While David Gatta DJ, the Blue Al executives cut a deal to acquire IPI partners, an investment firm that owned and operated big data centers for Amazon and Microsoft. Blue Al already had close ties

with the organizer of the treat, iconic capital, which manages the personal fortunes of Silicon Valley Elite, including Zuckerberg, and was a part owner of IPI. Okay, let's go to Tyler. They own the Tampa Bay Lightning.

Huh. Did they spend a lot of time in Tampa Bay? Is that a Is that like a NHL team? Yes. NHL team in Florida. That feels like an odd thing on.

That's got to be, I mean, I feel like Tampa is trying to keep the ice. I feel like a lot of the hedge fund guys there on the other side of the peninsula, right? Like, aren't they in like the Key West

and Mar-a-Lago area or Palm Beach or Miami? Like, or maybe they just fly in and out? Like, I don't know. It just, it feels like I would, I would love to know more. about how they selected that particular team.

And that sport, even. Yeah. The purchase gave Blue Owl a seat at the table to bid on mega AI financing. Let's give it up for Mega AI Financing. Not long after, it got a range, it got picked to a range of $14 billion package for an Oracle and Open AI Data Center in Abilene, Texas. Then last month, Blue Al raised about $30 billion to build an AI data center for META and Louisiana, putting in $3 billion of its clients' money and borrowing the rest.

So the lender is, uh, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, borrowing in addition to their LPs dollars. The deal included a provision, considered extraordinary on Wall Street, giving Blue Al's equity investment a debt-like guarantee in case the partnership falls apart, showing the new financial wizardry bankers are conjuring to meet AI's ravenous financial demand. Let's give it up for financial wizardry. We love wizardry. Spreading the risk.

Silicon Valley's biggest players are flush with cash and are able to fund much of the initial AI buildout from their own coffers as the dollar figures climb ever higher. They are turning to debt and private equity, spreading the risks and potential rewards more broadly across the economy. Some of the financing is coming from plain vanilla corporate bond sales, but financiers are making far bigger fees off giant private deals. Virtually every Wall Street player is angling to get a piece of the action from banks such as J.P. Morgan and Morgan Stanley to traditional asset managers like Blackrock. Before we go, let me tell you about fall, January media platform for developers, the world's best

generated image video and audio models all in one place, develop and fine-tuned models with serverless GPUs and on-demand clusters. Continue, Jordan. Investor appetite for data center debt is so strong

that some money managers have booked billion-dollar gains in a matter of days. Let's give it up for booking billion-dollar gains in a matter of days. Even before construction of these facilities,

they are financing. I mean, we talked about, we talked about this where... Concerning. Money managers... It's almost like, you know, people say,

there's no such thing as free money, but it kind of seems like could be in a kind of a free money situation here. I think you got to do something pretty powerful to wind up at the iconic. Here's the catch. Still, the longer term performance is hardly assured. Big tech companies are expected to spend nearly $3 trillion on AI through 2028, but only generate enough cash to cover half that tap, according to analysts and Morgan Stanley. Big names in the finance world, such as Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon,

are warning about AI-fueled froth in the markets and in capital spending. At the same time, the fear of missing out is real. Days after Solomon voices concerns analysts. Goldman formed a new team in its banking and markets group focused on AI infrastructure financing. They are getting into the game. What do you say? What we do know for certain is that the big tech companies that want the world to spend trillions have huge financial incentives to be believers.

If you haven't noticed, Wall Street is also being paid a lot to promote the story. Greenlight Capital, the hedge fund firm run by David Einhorn wrote in an October letter to investors. So how will the- And this is the line that stood out the most to me, because like on the West Coast, you have the labs, which are effectively every single person as well as the investors, are incentivized to keep the current, you know, AI super-cycle narrative going. Yes. And then on the East Coast, you have Wall Street. who is getting paid to effectively do the same thing. So you have these two centers of power that are both incentivized to keep the party going.

Yeah, this breakdown here. So the Wall Street Journal is slicing up how the next three years will look based on projected global spending on data centers by financing source. So of $2.9 trillion, which is estimated over the next year, next three years, I guess four years, tech companies will cover 1.4 trillion of it. Private credit will cover 800 billion of it. Corporate bonds, 200 billion of it. Asset back securitization, 150, private equity, another 350. And to me, this looks like a very healthy way to actually finance this. This feels like it's not, if it was like if we were looking at this, if you broke down,

we've been through a two trillion dollar like bubble before and it collapsed very rapidly what was that it was like the meme coin era and who and how did we break that down it was not it was not the the cash flows of the most profitable companies in the world that were buying the long tail crypto assets it was retail and so the fact that this is like pretty removed from retail feels like safe to me, it's much safer than getting a huge bubble inflated in, oh, everyone has to get in on the latest coin and they're all nonsense. Like, there will be nonsense deals. We're already seeing nonsense AI companies and there certainly will be projects that get financed

and they just cannot build. Yeah, I would say using the excuse like, well, at least this isn't retail getting hosed, doesn't hold up that well when you think, okay, the alternative. alternative is like large institutions, insurance companies, pension funds that are also financing this, which is effectively retail. I'm talking about the fragility, not necessarily where the financial pain or who the person ultimately pays for it. If there is a pullback, it's like how fast can that pullback happen, right? Because if if the write downs, if there's something that goes wrong and the write downs come out of tech companies' cash flows, that's just not as big of a deal as everyone

waking up and just slam in the sell button. It's just a very different, it's a very different set of dominoes. Like the dominoes of like the interest rate crisis, the NFT crisis, like FTX blowing up, all that stuff. Like those dominoes were spaced right next to each other. And so as soon as one went over, it was like the next person has their finger over the cell button. Their next person has their finger over their cell button. Whereas if you're like, yeah, I'm a tech company and I produce, you know, 50 billion dollars of free cash flow and, oh yeah, I'm not getting a great return on the 20 billion of free cash flow that I earmarked over here for the next few years. It's like, it's not, it's not like, it's not as calamitous. And I think, I think, you know,

going back to this quote from David Einhorn, he says what we do know for certain is that the big tech companies that want the world to spend trillions. have huge financial incentives to be believers in case you haven't noticed Wall Street is also being paid a lot to promote the story and in that same letter Einhorn

and Greenlight said this was the AI math makes no sense which was basically the way it is today consumer business spends $1 on a Chad TBT subscription which is OpenAI revenue

then OpenAI provides the service by spending $2 on Microsoft AI infrastructure, which is Microsoft revenue. Then Microsoft spends 60 cents leasing GPUs from CoreWeave to handle the compute load, which is CoreWeave revenue. And then CoreWeave spends $2.40 on chips from Nvidia and another $2.40. Yes, but you're completely discounting

exactly how addicted the 4-0 user is. They will pay any amount. So let's say that if it costs $20,000 a day to serve a 4-0 user, they will find the money. They will be stripping copper out of empty buildings to pay for their 4-0 bill if they have to. They will be whatever it takes. They will be breaking into cars to sell stolen CD radios. It is notable that Blue Owl has sold off 16% in the past month.

So even during this sort of like boom and lending, it's not. They're not getting very much credit for it. Yeah. It's an odd time. Like there's still so many things that are working. The results from that newcomer event, the AI cerebral valley, where he had every, it's so good. He took like a straw pole on stage and asked everyone like, who do you want to short? And everyone said perplexity.

So like he didn't really have to say like, I'm shorting perplexity. He just was able to take the temperature and sort of maintain like, you know, some arm's length distance to it while still like getting the take out there. But everyone was saying that they wanted to buy more open AI, more anthropic, more anderol, a few other names came up, I believe. And there's still like an incredible amount of bullishness in a lot of different areas. but I think, yeah, people are still worried about some of the other stuff. But at the same time, it feels like there's so many companies that have, like, gone through a, they've gone through the AI pump and round-tripped, not just Oracle, but even, like, like, Klarna was going through the whole, like,

hey, we're going to get so many efficiencies out of AI, and then it came back to normal. But then they still got out, and it's, like, a reasonable company that's not, like, it's not zeroed, right? It's like, oh, yeah, their business is just what it was before the AI boom, and they are not getting, like, they didn't get moved up or down. And so there's just like a ton of companies that are like that. Where is Klarna since the IPO anyway? They're sitting at around a $12 billion valuation, $12.6. Down 20%.

Yeah, down 20%. That doesn't seem calamitous to me. That seems like pretty, like, solid, like, I don't know, the overall markets kind of kind of, you know, up and down. I don't know. A firm, on the other hand, is up 28%. How's a firm to it? Up 28% in the past six months. In the past six months.

They're getting... Today is a real bloodbath. It's down 6% today. Everything's down today. What else is down today? Bitcoin. Let's check. NASDAX's down 1.3.

Dow Jones 1.3 as well. Well, we're going to 10,000-year mortgages. Doing 10,000-year mortgages. Announce the second round of stimulus checks. already. Gemini 3 must save us. There's a prediction on polymarket that was quote posted by Sunder Pichai, CEO of Google. He says, prediction markets are betting on Gemini 3 release week. 69% says November 22nd. Can't wait for that. We were wondering if we were going to get it before Christmas. It was our Christmas present. It was Tyler's Christmas present. And fortunately,

it looks like we're going to. And I couldn't be. more excited that we are partnered with Gemini and Google AI Studio. Create an AI powered app faster than ever. Gemini understands the capabilities you need and automatically wires up the right models and APIs for you. You can get started at AI. Studio slash build. Speaking of Google, Google Capital says his final investing decision was to buy Google. This is amazing. I think that's beautiful. He doesn't even need to say who he's talking about. It's like so obvious that's Warren Buffett. It is, it is beautiful that Warren Buffett is going along. and Darren here quotes this Rune post that says

Not enough people are emotionally prepared for If it's not a bubble It's a good post It's like it's like is it a is it a bubble if all the big tech companies rip And there's like a couple Neo clouds that trade down a little bit And like there's like you know one or two application layer companies that burn a bunch of VC dollars But there's still a new hypercentry scaler that's born, like, kind of.

I guess it's a bubble, but it's a survivable bubble. It's just like, it's move on, you know? Yeah. Bowling bubbles. But people are getting wild on the timeline about Gemini 3. Roon says the model must be good because the Google people have adapted the open AI culture of vague posting and hushed rumors and sending really weird texts. So we are, and signals is LMAO explicitly calling out open AI culture of vague

posting is hilarious. People are excited. There was also a Reuters profile of Demis, and Morgan says a Demis profile can only mean one thing. I imagine that that's Gemini 3.0 and that it will be good. The question is like, what does good mean right now? Are we expecting anything that's like a qualitative step function? Because what I would say, what is Gemini 3 good? first off, I mostly just want better UI and little features in the app. Like I want, as a consumer product, I just want, like, you know, better productization of the model that I already think is good. On the actual AI model side, I would imagine it's, you know, little 10% bump to how long it can reason, maybe a model picker or not a model picker, an automatic reasoning mode so that if I, if I, even if I think it's going to take 10 minutes to get me the answer. If it has the answer handy, it gives it to me in one minute,

vice versa. It knows when to think really hard. It knows when to think just for a little bit. I'm expecting it to be slightly better at all the benchmarks. I don't know, I don't even know what would blow me away. Yeah, I mean, at this point, it's getting, like, fairly hard to find good prompts that, like, show how good a model is. Like, there was the one earlier we showed about the shrimp fried rice one. That's, like, pretty good. But yeah, I mean, qualitative, like, just in normal kind of natural language, it's like pretty hard to get. Also, like, if I go to Gemini 3 and I say,

tell me a joke or I say, write me a tweet that gets over a thousand likes, I'm not actually that disappointed when it falls flat on its face. I'm like, yeah, it's fine. It's spiking intelligence. I don't really need you to do that. I don't need you to be funny.

I need you to look up data really accurately for me. I need you to do that really well. Or I need you to write code really accurately for us. I think another question is, like, what will Open AI do if they'll do anything? Yeah. Because we've basically seen every big Gemini release. There's been some response from Open AI. Like, usually they do it the day before.

What is Jerry laughing at? I just don't know. I know that they want to steal Gemini's Thunder. I just don't know if they have the juice this week. Who? Oh, Open AI. Yeah. I mean...

It feels a little bit like all the people at Open AI are throwing in the towel a little bit. No one is vague posting over there. Yeah. I would, it feels like they've launched a lot of the things that would be easy, like layups. Like if they launched SORA this week, everyone would be like, oh, we got to focus on SORA. These videos of Sam Altman stealing GPUs are just too funny. It doesn't matter what happened in Gemini 3 world, because Gemini 3 probably will be somewhat of a incremental. They released OpenAI, the I.O. acquisition, the week of Google I.O.

And then it turns out like they couldn't, I don't think they could use the name I.O. Like they got that like trademark lawsuit right away. Just like, we, big news. We hired three Gemini's. Their birthday is in the month that makes them Geminize. And so we're introducing them today. And we're doing a whole press release for it. The new Gemini team at Open AI.

At Open AI. Just anything to steamroll the SEO. It will be fun. Well, we have Eric Gleiman from Ramp in the Restream waiting room. Let's bring him into the TEPP and Ultradown. Eric, how are you doing? Yellow suit. What's going on?

Get the memo? Oh my gosh. Guys, I'm on the road today, but I'm going to be wearing my yellow suit all week. It's so good to see you guys. Good to see you, too. Good to see you, too. Give us the update. What's the latest?

What happened? So today, Ramp announced a $300 million raise at a $32 billion at valuation. congratulations they've done it again the big question everyone wants to ask the chat's going crazy is the job finished guys the job is not finished is that the third is that the third is that the third it's the fourth time we've asked no no no i was going to say is that is this the third financing this year something like that yeah it is it is the fourth financing that ramp is announced this year okay let's go congratulations um yeah what what so so so why what why this financing why this partner um why this number kind of break us through walk us through the the the the thesis behind the

round of course um so i i think if you start look at the fundamentals of the business ramp is just competing in a category of its own. You know, the company is generally the bigger they get the more they slow down. Ramp is growing faster this year at significantly larger scale than we did last year. So this is, you know, at over a billion dollars a year in revenue, the business is doubling. It's generating cash. And if you look at gross profits specifically, which is a good metric of how efficient are the underlying mechanics of the business, we're growing 10 times faster than the median publicly traded software company. So it's just in a category of its own.

I think on top of this, AI has just been an incredible accelerant for the business itself. There's a pull from customers. Everyone is thinking about how can I take what's happening in AI and apply it to my business. And there's a push of these models that are getting dramatically better. And so outcomes like automated expenses, automated accounting, moving funds to higher yield for customers are just coming out of the box. And so, you know, I would say if we were to sum it up, I think for many millennia, money talked, we're keeping money to think.

And I think the implications of that are pretty profound, you know, better run businesses, more profitable organizations. And so that's the first part. The second part, we're absolutely thrilled to be deepening our partnership with Lightspeed who led this round. I think they're an extraordinary firm led the rounds of many great companies. I think notably Anthropics round earlier this year, which has proven to be, I think, and one that's, you know, changed the industry quite a bit.

And I think they've just been a great partner in deepening our thinking, helping us grow. And so we're very excited. Talk about accelerating at scale this morning at breakfast. Jordy and I were reflecting on the fact that we were feeling this way, even with our much smaller organization. We were like, wow, like it's only been a year. And we feel like we were already losing some of the agility that we had when we were just three people. And we were saying, like, I understand, what was this thing you said?

You said, I understand why companies write down their principles because it's so easy to lose sight of what is important, what makes you great, what you do specifically. And so I would love to know just your reflection. Yeah, even across this year, like a lot of us, the process of making the show better is us, remember. the things that we did great early on, and that you kind of end up losing your way in slight ways, and then it's about remembering that and kind of coming back to it. Yeah, so I'd love, I'd love to know both what are the things that make ramp great, but then also your thought process for not losing that, because I imagine you agree that that is important to have principles and redouble the focus on them.

I will literally ask you about this, because I think it gets to the heart of what we're trying to do inside of the product. If you think about probably your very first year, every dollar out of the organization was something you thought about. Someone wants to buy a software subscription. You know exactly why someone proposed a consultant. It's a debate over. It ever knows. Who approved what was this purchase worth it or not? And years later, suddenly businesses just start happening to you. You're not happening to the business. Things are renewing on autopilot. Things you thought carefully about. or just running on its own.

And what we're really trying to seek to do and the product is, when we say money that thinks, you know, it's the idea is that before funds leave your account, we understand the principles that you run your business and we check, does someone have the permission to spend it? It has memory. So once the thing actually moves, you don't need to ask, like, why did we buy this thing?

What was it? Like, there's an audit trail of who approved it. Budgets are updated. And then there's reasoning. And so we can actually start to show businesses. Here's you can get more of every dollar. an hour. And so I think that's what's so different. You take things that you just to be systems running to now there's checks in the system. And I think for us, it's an interesting moment, right?

We're as a company, we launched our first product, simple product, card and expense about five years ago. Today, we're 2,436 days old. We still count the days. And the reason is we want to be thinking about, you know, with every day, are we getting just a little bit more done or a little bit less done? in kind of this practice of thinking about kind of the passage of time, auditing our calendar is asking, you know, are we getting more work done with the same or less amount of effort goes a long way? And then last, I would say specific to you guys, I think part of why we've just felt so proud to work with both of you and call TPPN our partners is I think there's this It's like unbelievable care of craft.

I think there's, it's not about who's done everything. It's like who can write, great copy, who can think of funny ideas. How could we take an idea to, you know, we're doing it tomorrow. And I think that you guys have really lived. I mean, people forget a year ago, TBPN. I don't even think you guys were called TBPN or was it Joe. And, you know, you've turned into something great. And so I feel strongly you guys don't have trouble with this.

And I think just emphasis on speed and quality and craft has been what I've seen with you guys. Yeah, totally. Something I was thinking about, we were reading that Carpathie post earlier around how software 1.0 was like kind of more general automation software 2.0 is your automating tasks that are verifiable. Verifiable tasks. And I just feel like finance is like just like prime for verifiability, right?

Because it's like, well, was this in, in the policy or outside of the policy? totally totally yeah i'd love to know more there's your policy incomplete right um you know there's all these practices and you can actually start to learn based off of the actions and i think something that's so unique is that every time you know months close um uh there is someone actually going in and saying this transaction is categorized here this goes there you can see if you grew your revenue faster if you grew your cash flow faster or if you didn't and so there's this incredible feedback loop that allows Ramp to add more value. I think that's why the average customer that adopts Ramp spends 5% less. And also the median ramp customer grew their revenue by 12%

over the past year, which is much faster than the median in the U.S. And I think a lot of it comes from this learning. So help me understand you're generating cash, but you're also raising money, you're implementing AI, which can be very expensive. We've heard from Ivan at Notion that, you know, he saw a slight hit to his gross margins. It's still a fantastic business, but did actually see that show up in the income statement. How is, how are you thinking about the adoption of AI as a piece of the tech stack? Is it actually reshaping the financials at this point? Or is it something? where you see it sort of just like another subscription, just like another piece of the tech stack,

and it hasn't really changed the way you think about the cost structure of your business. It's a really good question to zoom into, and in my general view, it has been fairly overwhelmingly positive. I mean, I still think that for us that the goal is, our goal is not to sell someone like a card or a bill payment software. It's to help your business run more profitably, right? And I think a lot of what we're trying to do is if we can actually pay for software where the output is there's an hour of your time that you don't have to do anymore that's somebody software, that's really great. Next, I think about, and you ask most founders or leaders in technology, like, what's the biggest constraint on your business? Everyone says, I'm having trouble hiring engineers. It's like I want to hire great salespeople, great engineers.

And if you can adopt software, I mean, we look at our sales team. You know, the quota that folks on the sales team have is multiple times of an exorcist competitor in part because we have a lot of tools we built to make our team far more productive. Our engineers are shipping about 50% more code to the code base than about four or five months ago. And that's continued. And so our general view is, look, if you can actually make the best even better, that's something we're gladly willing to pay for.

And so in our business, we've actually seen, you know, margins expand as we've adopted this, in part because we think that our principles let's create a lot more value than we capture. And we're able to do that because we're creating much more value than it even months ago. It just feels like Ramp is agile, new company that people love the product. And so it's just so much easier to say, hey, if you want to. a new AI powered feature. We have that on day one. You don't need to rip us out and go to something else. You don't need to have some bolt on. You can just get it all here. And so you can effectively monetize whatever cost is coming through the actual token generation on your side

pretty quickly. How are you thinking about head count planning over the next few years? We don't have to zoom out to like 10 years. I think it gets extremely, extremely fuzzy. But I'm curious if you care about, you know, every once in a while, these sort of like revenue per employee or sort of like net income per employee, like statistics start floating around. I'm curious if you think about that at all. And obviously, you know, running ramp as, you know, one of the most efficient companies in the world is really good marketing for the product. It's probably the best marketing that you can do. But I'm curious how you think about, about that. those things? It's exactly the right question because I think, look, when we kind of think about

our operating model every year, we try to increase the ratio of whether it's revenue, contribution profit, margin per employee. It's all to say, like, we anticipate revenue is going to go very, very rapidly. And while employee headcount is going to grow, it's going to grow a little bit slower. And so the effect is you start to see this widening, gives you more margin to invest in whether it's use of AI itself that you can drive into the product, more marketing, all those types of things to reach more customers. I think more abstractly, though, if you kind of step back, you know, most businesses in the U.S. run are actually profitable. I might forget that in the valley, but have an 8% profit. And we'll talk about this. But,

You know, it's like if you make a company more efficient by like 1%, it's equivalent to like an increase of, you know, $1 in savings is equivalent to $12 more in revenue at an 8% margin, just mathematically. And if you can do this repeatedly, I actually think that there's, you know, A, you have a lot more businesses that are good, but don't have this automation and skill sets to grow much larger. I think a lot more companies will get bigger. And I also think that if it's just easier to run a business, I think more great businesses will get started. I think there's a lot of creative people out there who would be running organizations who I think is the tools to build get easier. You see a more interesting world.

And so I actually think it's a pretty important and really profound thing to knock out inefficiency to allow smaller companies to succeed. I mean, even you guys are a perfect example. TbPN is a small team that's changed the media landscape and captivated the world. And, like, I think that there are probably a lot of people where if you make the tools better, like they will come. How do you feel like CFOs are ranking, like, AI-enabled software on their list of priorities when they're making a decision in this category?

Like, is it, because it feels like there is some great stuff. There's some stuff that's commoditized, some stuff that you've built that's differentiated. But are CFOs as a class sort of like, okay, I've checked the box, I'm exhausted with the narrative, or I'm just ramping up and I feel like I'm just starting to get value and I actually understand it? Or are they just learning what AI is for the first time tomorrow or today? This is a fun one. So I would say there's a few different types. I mean, I would say small and mid-sized businesses just as like, look, I want to run the same business. business for less. I want to grow, meet my goals, be more profitable. And I think for us,

it's just, hey, it's an easier-to-use expense report, or like, you want you to do expenses where your card will do it for you. Sure. You don't need five tools to pay bills, run procurements, earn yield on your treasury. Ramp will simplify that. But I think that for large customers, look, I think it's like 80% plus of the earnings calls of the S&P 500 mentioned AI about six months ago, and I think it was 95 over the most recent quarter, it is 100% on the mind of CEOs and CFOs. What they're wrestling with is, you know, there's a great study of MIT in the fall that went fairly viral where it's a 95% of enterprise deployments are not creating return on investment. And I think part of why CFOs have been so enamored with Ramp is, you know,

we can demonstrate very, very clearly. A, for most customers, it's probably, It's a product that pays you to use it in the form of cashback. B, it helps reduce your spend and see when you have all this time back for your sales force to go and sell and not do low value tasks. It's a very easy business case. And so I think this ultimately, like our focus is on saving people money. And that ROI focus makes it easy for them to buy. I think it's very important. That MIT study, how does that track with what you guys have seen from various AI pilots?

I would imagine ramp doesn't even count on either side. I wouldn't think of bringing a ramp into a company as like an AI pilot. I would see it as like a completely different thing. But are you the 5% that's successful or are you just not even counting? If you were looking, if you were talking with the team, the team's like 95% of our pilots haven't panned out, you'd probably be like, what were you guys doing? Yeah.

Yeah, yeah. It is, you nailed it. So one, I think that a lot of, you hit this first phase of people who were like told they need to buy AI. They're like, fine, I'll give you some experimental budget. People try a bunch of stuff. And I think you end up, and I think this speaks to the importance of design where you'd end up with, like, disconnected tools.

Totally. You have like a thoughtful chat, like a great chat bot here, this thing that kind of plugged into some of your code base and others. And if you look at, I think part of what's made ramps so effective is, you know, it's just a smarter card that happens to use AI. It's not telling you, hey, this is an LLM that categorize your transaction. This is an LLM that's read this 30-page invoice, detected it was fraud, told you not to pay for this. This is an LLM that detected you could be earning higher yield and moved it for you.

It's just part of how it works. And I think this next phase and the AI-native companies that are working very, very well, have these deeply integrated products where it's not like some, you know, AI tool. It's just how it works. And so I think that's the distinction. And you're right. For a lot of CFOs, it's, hey, we have this tool. going to help us cut out waste and pay us cash back. Should we use it or not? And it's a pretty easy decision. Yeah, yeah, it might not even be in the category, but it's still delivering

AI properly. And I just love that that's, I feel like there's something very valuable about just using every possible tool, AI or not, or linear regression, if that's the best tool for the job, behind the scenes, and then just delivering the actual value to the customer, solving the problem because customers, they don't necessarily want technologies. They want solutions. Yeah, yeah. And one of our customers and someone I look up to quite a bit, Brett, Taylor started a company called Sierra, Chairman of Open AI, I think he was on it a week or two. One of the things he said is like, look, I don't want anyone at Sierra spending like time on expense reports or invoices. And Ramp is automated categories of work that

used to slow us down, and we actually can work on the things that makes us great, building great product, to write the business. And so I think you nailed it. It's solutions, not actual technologies, because most of the customers, just, just, they just don't have a strong opinion about the underlying technology. They care about saving time, saving money. That's what matters. Well, congratulations. Thank you so much for taking time. Massive milestone. This is day. Fourth of the year. I'm sure feedback next week. You're always welcome. that's why we bought these suits. We don't rent them. We bought them. Tailored. Because we are going to be using them a lot. We're going to be using them a lot. Guys, it's so good to see you.

Thank you so much. Have a great rest to you day. Yeah, incredible miles. We'll talk to you soon. Bye. Cheers. Quickly, before we bring in our next guest, let me tell you about turbopuffer, search every bite, serverless vector and full-tech search. Built from first principles on object storage, fast, 10x cheaper. By the way, medium-scale. Median, median public SaaS company, growing at 12 to 17% a year. They're growing at 10 times that rate. Fantastic. Well, our next guest is Stacy Ragson. Welcome to the show. Thank you so much for stopping by.

We'll have you sit down here. And while you're sitting down, I'll tell everyone about profound. Get your man mentioned in chat, GPT. Reach millions of consumers who are using AI to discover new products and brands. Are we in a bubble? What's going on? And introduce yourself first. Sure. My name is Stacey Razgon.

I'm a stock analyst and equity analyst. I'm a managing director and analyst, senior analyst, at Bernstein Research, where I look at the U.S. semiconductor and semiconductor capital equipment space. Thank you. Clearly, AI has been the only topic for a couple of years. Yes, yes, yes. I want you to react to this Satrini post here. It says, just reviewed a bunch of stuff for our November macro memo.

We might low-key be going into a recession, boys. No clue if this matters at all for stock prices anymore, though. That's a good point. You could argue some parts of the economy, and I'm not a macro guy, I'm not an economist. However, you could argue some parts of the economy are already there, right? I mean, people use the phrase K-shaped recovery, which is sort of interesting. But I think especially like the lower half of the population is not actually doing all that well. And we've actually seen that more recently

in a lot of just, not the semiconductor reports, but a lot of the consumer reports and the restaurants and, you know, the retail. Yeah. So there's probably parts of the world that are already there. And clearly the infrastructure spending, the AI spending, has been supporting GDP.

Yeah. And it's been supporting the stock market. I mean, NVIDIA's, I can't even remember, 8%, 9% of the S&P now. So, yeah. That's remarkable. We may be there already. Yeah.

So we had a thesis that NVIDIA is going to do just fine this earning cycle, specifically the only reason, not just overall demand, but that Jensen was slamming beer. This is the most quantitative research. You can't get this on Wall Street. He's not acting like a CEO that's really worried about his corner. I don't know that he would generally care anyways. However, they just did an event in D.C. a couple of weeks ago, they called GTC.

I mean, he put a slide up behind him that basically said numbers next year, What the slide said, said they had $500 billion in cumulative orders for Blackwell and Ruben. Blackwell is their current generation of AI servers and Ruben's the next generation. 500 billion cumulative across 2025 and 2026. And they said we've already, I can't remember it was like 20 million chips for orders. And they said we've shipped six to date. So we've got 14 million left. They've got five quarters.

You can sort of figure out how much it is and you can compare that to where the numbers are. He's basically saying numbers are too low. So I'm not terribly worried going into the quarter on Wednesday. Now, you know, with stocks, as always, it's not just the numbers, right? It's the numbers relative to the expectations. Totally. So I think everybody expects it to be good. So we'll see how good he can make it.

It does feel like we've entered a period over the last month maybe where even beating would still result in a sell-off. Is that just everything priced to perfection? What's going on there? Yeah, I mean, especially in the AI side, there's been, you know, the sentiment. ebbs and flows. Yeah. And we've been in a bit of an ebb. Yeah.

And there's been a lot of stuff. You know, we had Burry's comments about a GPU lifetime and depreciation. And we had a couple, to be honest, a few what I would call self-owns on the part of the Open AI folks, Aldman and Skrifier, a little like unnecessary angst that they caused. They did that to inspire themselves to have to work harder. Maybe. Maybe. It's fine.

Look, and you're early guys. the bubble or not. I mean, so bubbles are as bubbles are, right? You can look at a lot of things. You can look at valuations. I mean, Nvidia's, uh, mid-20s, price to afford earnings right now. We haven't got anywhere near crazy yet. I mean, I'll say the same thing I've said since this started, and it's, it really got started. You know, Chatsybdis showed up in November of 22, and Nvidia's sort of print heard around the world was May of 23. That's when it started. Even then, people worried about, okay, 2024 is going to be off, right? I'll say the same thing. And then at some point, you know, nothing goes up into the right forever.

At some point, you'll have a digestion or an air pocket. It's not now. It's clearly not now. That's all like I can say. I don't know when, but it's not now. It's not this year. Yep. Doesn't look like it's next year.

And then all of these projects that Open AI is, you know, signing with Broadcom and Nvidia and even AMD, they don't even start to ship until the end of 2026. So at least from a spending standpoint, from what we consider it, it's probably not 2027 either. Now, we'll see what the stocks do. They tend to be anticipatory, but in terms of, like, an air pocket or something in spending, I'm not really all that worried yet. When?

I don't know, but, like, it's not now. Yeah, do you, how much have you subscribed to this idea of, like, rolling, rolling bubbles? So, like, right now, like, it seems like we've had, we've had, like, explosion, you know, a lot of excitement around neoclouds this year. You know, pretty much all of them have sold off a ton in the last month, maybe partly because of some of the comments out of the opening eye camp and lack of confidence.

But at the same time, you know, Seagate, Western Digital, these other companies are up, you know, tremendously. I mean, the storage, they're covered by a colleague of mine, but I mean, they just go up 10% every day, right? But that's the thing. It all really comes down to demand.

Demand is off the charts. Nobody can get enough compute. The neoclouds are all, You know, even with Corrieve, they had a bit of a delay. They just don't have the capacity, right? They're pushed out a little bit. It's still there. Again, the storage guys are ripping because the memory prices are going through the roof

because there's so much, there's a lack of supply relative to demand. All we've seen from the hypers is cap X numbers going up and up and up and up. Like, nobody can get enough compute right now. That's where we are. And I think that is, so the overarching, I mean, that's the overarching thesis, like either way. Like you go back to the question about GPU Depreciation, GPU lifetimes, for example. This is what Burry was getting at.

He was saying, oh, well, you know, they're all using your six-year depreciation lifetimes and, you know, these things don't last more than three years because you've got new stuff coming in. It's not true right now, right? I mean, you can look. They're still renting out old GPUs for, I mean, for much more than it costs them to operate them.

It's clearly possible to run them longer than three years. It comes down to demand. Right now, demand is so strong. it is absolutely economic to run that stuff. If demand weakens, maybe it won't be, but if demand weekends, we're all screwed anyway. So to me, all of the bare cases that you come out right now, to me, collapsed under the same thing,

is demand there or is it not? Right now it's there, and it's not showing any, the demand side is not showing any signs of weakening. What about the leaked phone call from Sarah Fryer, the CFO of OpenAI, where there was, this idea that potentially there was weakness on the demand side. User minutes were dropping, which implies

less demand for computer. In the core chat GPT app, which feels like the leading indicator for all AI. Yeah, but it's more than just open AI too, right? So you know, you could argue that we want open AI to be there because like Altman's driving a lot of this incremental. So we'll see. But I mean, there's lots of, there's lots of demand

if it's not just OpenA, it's Open AI, it's Anthropics. Totally. It's Gemini. Totally. In general right now, I mean, usage is going up. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, I mean, I'm sure we'll get more information on the, on the Google side, because it could be. I was a little wary about some of the, when you see these leaks.

Like, you always have to be able to be careful about. Yeah, it was very odd that it was like from an investor only call. Yeah. Like, what investor would leak bad news. And by the way, we do calls, like that. And stuff gets taken out of contact. Sure, sure, sure. I don't know what they said.

I wasn't on that call. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I'm always a little hesitant to take, and I do this for a living, right? I'm always a little hesitant to take that kind of stuff at face value. You have to, you have to diligence. Yeah, yeah. I mean, at the same time, like, to your point of the, like, S-curve nature of these adoptions, it's possible that, you know, 800 million is a lot of people. Yeah. You do at some point saturate everyone, and there's only so much time in the day. There's 8 billion people in the world.

Yeah, yeah. But, I mean, it took, it took Facebook years to get up into the high single million millions. And that is the thing, by the way. I've been doing this job almost 18 years. Yeah. Same seat. I've never seen anything like this before. Yeah. Right. I mean, this is, this is unprecedented and just in, and that's why people, and that's why people, get nervous. Yeah. Because the numbers have gotten so big, so quickly, you just sit there and stare at them. It's like, this can't be sustainable. Totally.

We've been hearing it for two and a half years. Still going. Yeah. So, I mean, in this idea of the K-shaped recovery or this, you know, cycle of little bubbles popping up and popping, how do you process something like core weave? Like, it feels like everything is going so well. And to the point where the negativity around AI, is like a rumored leak of a phone call,

but then we're seeing a company trade down by 50% in a month. Yeah, well, again, I won't talk about Corwin specifically, but I mean, look, anything that goes out where valuations are high, expectations are high. You know, it's not just that. Lots of things have weakened, you know, off of peaks. I mean, it's fine. You know, the neoclouds in general,

I mean, they're all seeing tons of demand, right? Yeah. I'm not really worried in general right now about where the demand is going. The only thing we're seeing in terms of spending intentions and everything else is right now is up. And again, I think that is the question, how long does it last? I don't think anybody knows. If you just look at, like I said, at least what is currently being forecasted by the companies that are doing the spending at this point, there's no signs of a slowdown, not yet.

What do you think of this thesis that some of the hyperscalers are maybe offloading risk to the neoclars? Oh, they clearly are, right? I mean, yeah, which is fine. That's part of the purpose, I think, that the neocloud serve. Sure. You know, you're kind of at the tip of the spear, right? It's boom or bust, right? Yeah, I mean, but that's part of their business model, I think.

What if you go further on the tip of the spear? Is there a company like organization like Blue Owl or some of the... On the financing side? Because Blue Owl is another example where, you know, like Google's doing very well. Microsoft's doing very well. The hyperscalers are doing very well, even OpenAIs doing very well, growing a ton. But then you have some froth in the neoclouds and some more froth in the private credit markets. What's your take on what's going on?

Yeah, I mean, those are probably frothier parts anyways. But I mean, the financing question is interesting. Sure. Because I'd say some of these debt deals, again, if you're looking at parallels to prior bubbles, that is one thing. There's a few things that people worry about raising a lot of debt to debt. to fund the stuff, and then they also worry about what they've called kind of circular revenues, right? There's a lot of, like, cross-talk.

Yeah, yeah. We think a lot of the companies around here, and maybe to address both of those. I'd say on the debt side, most of this CAP-X is still being funded off of income statements. Yeah, cash-loaf. That is one difference now versus, say, 2001, is the companies that are driving the spending, by and large, are the largest, most profitable, best businesses that humanity has ever devised. Yes, I'm sure you remember what the actually largest business. business was in 2000, ExxonMobil and Chevron.

It was big, big oil, and big oil was not driving, and they were not funding the telecom build out with their cash flow. A lot of companies, I mean, they were raising money, they weren't profitable. That does not really, it was a very different thing. It wasn't like an immediate beneficiary that was, that was just, oh, the biggest companies are just getting bigger. So it is a very different. And so in this case, we are starting to see some debt deals to fund this, but I'd say the,

by and large, the vast majority is still being funded off of operating cash flows. I don't feel too bad. Out of the $2.4 trillion that the Wall Street Journal estimated the number that was funded by cash flows was $1.4 trillion, and then there was $800 billion in private credit. So it's still a pretty reasonable debt-to-equity ratio, in my opinion. If you think about that way, or debt to cash flow. For now.

Yeah, for that's right. And then in terms of like the call the circularity, so I mean, invidia is behind us. They're investing a lot. They have deals in opening eye. But I mean, Jensen's got his fingers pretty much in every startup, right? He's been doing it for a long time. But think about, like, what else can he do with the cash?

And so I'm hard for us to think of a better use. We'll see where the numbers go, but if you believe the numbers, they're going to be generating hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of billions of dollars of free cash flow over the next, like, five years, say. So what can he do with it? You can't do big M&A. Nobody will let him, right? Nothing's going to get through antitrust.

They have a buyback and a dividend, but relative to their market cap, it's going to be de minimis, there's no choice. And so is there anything better than you do except invest and help to grow the AHA? They also have a lot of different business in terms of M&A. Like with Microsoft, they buy LinkedIn. That makes a lot of sense in the Microsoft ecosystem. You know, teams, they grow, Azure. Like, there's all these different places where they can plug other businesses in.

Like, if Nvidia bought LinkedIn, we'd just be like, what is the goal? But he tried to buy other stuff, right? Yeah, yeah. Certainly, certainly other pieces of this. Could you imagine if he'd been able to buy arm, by the way? He'd be crazy. He'd be unstoppable. He'd be unstoppable.

So nobody's going to let him do anything like that. No one's going to let him. How important do you think the Chinese market is to NVIDIA? Because we debate this quite a lot. And it isn't. At least it's not important to the numbers right now because it's out of the numbers. Yeah. And V-VITA, even AMD, they took it out.

So that was smart because it's still questionable whether or not they will be allowed to sell. And so from a number standpoint, it's okay. From a strategic standpoint, I think it is important. And Jensen hasn't hidden this, by the way. Second largest computing market. It's more than that, though. So it is the second largest. And again, he's talking about $50 billion of lost opportunity.

And over the long term, it's probably bigger than that, right? I mean, China's big. But I think it's more strategic. You have to remember the Chinese developers want to use Nvidia. They have better products, right? They do. However, you're not going to stop China. So China has companies like Huawei, for example,

that's basically a state-owned enterprise. And they already have parts in China that have higher performance than what Nvidia is allowed to sell there. They do. We burn a lot more power. Chinese don't care. They just throw up another coal plant, right? Yeah.

But the thing is they're much harder to use. They don't use NVIDIA's ecosystem. It's called Kuda. And the Chinese developers want to use NVIDIA's ecosystem. If you don't allow him to sell there, what you do is you potentially encourage those local developers of whom there are a lot to coalesce potentially around a local alternative, like a Huawei, for example, and start to build up potentially over time a more robust ecosystem in China.

And then you're shut out. the longer term where it would be is once it's robust in China, does it move out of China? Now do you have a more robust global competitor? And so that's why I think strategic is, and he said almost exactly that. He hasn't tried to sugarcoat it. Where I think he gets a little bit of a benefit is, at least with Huawei, the parts, because of some of the other U.S. sanctions, they have to make their chips at local companies like SMIC on deficient process technology, so the chips don't work as well.

They're not as power efficient. I do not think those chips will really be competitive outside of China where they will be competing on a global basis with much better products from Nvidia or AMD or whoever. So I think that helps. But ideally, and, you know, Lutnik said this. What did he say? He said, we want to get them addicted to our technology.

And, dear, I wouldn't have said it that way, but he's out of line, but he's right. We'd like them using it and to have some control over it. And we're letting that slip away. And so, yeah, and I don't think it's great that he's not able to sell strategically. at least from a number standpoint, it's out right now. I want you to react to this quote from the CEO of KKR. He says, and candidly, when we read some of these headlines, it's clear that many of us have PTSD from the financial crisis

and are looking for what will trigger the next one. Like, where is the next boogeyman? From our standpoint, this market and economy really don't provide a simple narrative like that. What do you think? I think that's true. And to be fair, I started this job in April of 2008, about three weeks after Bear Stearns failed.

That's when I made my move to Wall Street. Yeah. And so I was forged in that fire, and I have the financial crisis, like, tattooed on the inside of my eyelids. I lived through it. It was a remarkable time, by the way, to live through Wall Street. Yeah. This is not like that.

Yeah. That was, people thought the world was coming. But we'll see. Like, if there is an air pocket, maybe it will become like that. But people really thought the world was coming to an end back there. But are people looking for the name? Maybe, right? There's people who are always,

investors always looking for patent recognition. One thing that I go back to on the patent recognition side is just, um, I feel like for it to feel like there is a world where there's some massive correction and like a lot of the top players see big haircuts, but, uh, it's just hard to imagine a big widespread like with the dot com boom.

Every random person on the street was trading dot com stocks, uh, with the NFT boom. everyone had bitcoin they were telling you oh you got to buy cardano you got to buy this you got to buy that you got to buy this nfti and then in the housing bubble everyone was like yeah i just got a second house morton didn't zero down mortgage they didn't check my income and so there was a lot of like places where just hundreds of millions of americans could participate in the bubble on the way up and on the way down yeah and here it just feels harder there's some i mean there's a lot

more retail participation, I think. You think so? Yeah, and Robin Hood and all this. And they get a little nasty sometimes. They trade these zero data expiration options. So there's some of that. I don't think it's maybe as widespread as what we've seen in the past, but there probably is some of that.

Yeah, I just wonder if, like, if you go to the median American, do they have significant exposure to the data center build out right now? No, so maybe they're electric bills. Yeah, yeah, yeah. So maybe that's it. But if there's a collapse, that's going to go down. That's going to be cheaper. There's two ways that it could quote-unquote collapse, right?

And they have different implications. So one is just, you know, there's a digestion cycle. There's an air pocket. And you look at the hyperscalers how they spend money. Even before AI, they would tend to build and digest and build and it happens. Yeah. And I always say, like, what's the chance of a digestion cycle? It'll happen at some point.

I like this digestion cycle. But that wouldn't be structural. Sounds better than a correction. Yeah. It would be good for the cycle. But you could hold it through that. Totally. Like, the way it, quote, collapsed and it gets back to some of your earlier questions on the return.

If it turns out we're spending all this money, there's no return, then the whole thing comes crumbling down. Totally. For everybody. Yeah. Yeah, but it's like, it's like, I just really struggle to imagine a world where it's like, oh, yeah, like it was so bad that like Apple's at a 10 P.E. Google is no longer valuable. It's like these companies have been valuable for decades. Like, where are they going to go?

They can go down a little bit. but, like, they're just not that exposed at this point. Anyway. Someone in the chat asked, please ask Stacey about CDS spreads affecting debt financing costs. So that's Oracle and CoreWeave, i.e., how does the Domino start? Yeah, it's a little out of my wheelhouse, the CDS spreads. But people are looking at a few specific areas, like Oracle. Yeah.

And Oracle's one of the... I mean, Oracle's not exactly a hyperscale, but they're trying to be a hyperscaler, sort of. And they don't have the balance sheet and the income statement to fund it, so they are going more to the debt. And Corrieve, I mean, clearly, you know, they have to fund this debt with debt. Most of the other ones, you look at it, look at a Google or a Met or an Amazon. Like, you're not in that kind of stage, right? They're still, and they're raising a little bit of debt, but they're still primarily funding this out of free cash flow, basically,

out of cash flow operations. Yeah. But it is some of the people are starting to look at it, like for sure. For sure. Yeah. Have you tracked situational awareness, the hedge fund, Leopold, Oshernebrunner? I have not. No.

What is that? Former Open AI researcher. Oh, this is that kid that started the... Yeah, he's got $4 billion under management. Yeah, yeah, yeah, that's right. And I was curious, so his strategy, like, he raised the fund, like, at the beginning of this year or closed it. Closed it. He was raising it for...

He'd been raising it for a while, but it started deploying aggressively this year and has performed really well, at least until... It's the best performing hedge fund in the world. He's in the right place at the right time, right? And the whole thesis was just AI is real. Do you think some more traditional hedge funds have sort of just overthought the AI trade over the last year? Because it's not like he was buying

like somewhat, somewhat... He had a somewhat unique take. He had a very informed take, but it wasn't... But he also didn't go Nvidia. He went Intel, he went other places on the map. So, by the way, Intel's gone up, not because of AI. Intel's gone up because, you know, Donald Trump wants a stock. which is a bull case, it's fine, you know, but it's not an AI story.

My view in general, and yes, I don't know if specific hedgeons have been, you know, overthinking or not, I haven't wanted to overthinking. My general call this year has mostly been own the high-quality AI names, ignore most of the rest, and, like, that's been fine, right? It hasn't had to be complicated, number go up, right? It hasn't had to be, it hasn't had to be complicated. Number, number, go up. Well, I mean, what do you put in that high-quality name?

Fuck it, do you put the iPhone? I mean, we've covered like Invidian Broadcom, for example. Just mostly those. Yeah, and, you know, we've been more lukewarm on AMD, and that's what I missed, right? Because, you know, it's also like ripped. You haven't necessarily had to be, quote, unquote, high quality to work, right? Because right now we've been, again, if you think about an S curve, if we're on that exponential growth part, it takes everybody up. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.

But, again, you haven't had to overcomplicate anything. Not yet. Yeah, what about, I mean, talking about not overcomplicating it. Like, if you just bought Google and Microsoft, that's a pretty broad index on AI between Demond and Open AI. But you got to remember, like, it wasn't that long ago that people were looking at Google's an AI loser. Totally, yeah, no, it changed. It completely changed.

Completely changed. They positioned themselves very, very well. Citrini has another post here on the 2022. I saw a lot of very smart people in 2022 fail to recognize the reality of reflex i.e. stupid headlines that with a few hours of research could reasonably dismissed as nothing of consequence would add fuel to the fire and result in further downside. Understanding that this dynamic works to the upside as well as the downside means that yes, even if you know that the CDS on Oracle and CoreWeave are blowing out because the CDS market is easily pushed around by a few

parties trying to get cute and hedge their exposure to AI lending, you also recognize that if enough people view that CDS widening is indicative of a problem. It will become a problem. What do you think about these stupid headlines? I mean, headlines have certainly been more of the bane of my existence, so probably over the last couple of years. Yeah. Yes, so there have been

lots of movements from headlines that if you had any depth of subject matter expertise, you'd know the headline itself didn't mean any way. Yeah, what do you fall back on? Do you go to just the earnings reports? Yeah, I'll give you an example.

That kind of stuff tends to correct itself over, I mean, you get pops and, I mean, I'll give you example from my own coverage. And this is a stock that I've liked, Qualcomm announced, this is their headline. It wasn't like some stupid headline, but they announced like an AI, like, server. And there wasn't a whole lot of information, the pressure. But the stock went up 20% the moment of the, and then it kind of gave it back. Yeah, as it probably should, but it had a pretty big pop on the headline just because it was AI, whereas if, you know, you kind of know, and by the, don't get me wrong.

I mean, there's, we'll see what happens. with that product with them. And, you know, and you can argue it's option value and everything, but they go up 20% on one day was probably overdone. And it gave it back. You know, it's fine. Yeah, makes sense.

Giving it back, I feel like, has been the story of Oracle. They got this, you know, tremendous pop off the Open A-I deal. Now they've retraced it below. Is it lower than it was? It's lower than it was before, which to me says, like, either the market doesn't believe that it's real and or the other reading would be it's real,

but it's not going to be ROI positive, right? Yeah, and again, without making any comments on Oracle, I mean, those are the, for any of these investments, those are the worries that you're going to have, right? Yeah, either, because again, especially if it's open AI, so Altman's committed to a tremendous amount of capacity. I mean, it's just between, on the chip side,

between Nvidia Broadcom and A&B, it's 26 gigawatts. Yeah. Right, and just for some context, I think the whole global data, data center installed electrical capacity, I want to say something like 70 gigawatts, something in that ballpark, right? So it's a lot. I mean, he was even making comments he wanted to deliver, what was it, a gigawatt a week at one point? I mean, it's a lot, right?

And so you already are wondering, can he actually deliver on that or not? And those are valid questions. But I wouldn't count Altman out like he's aggressive, but he's got like large aspirations. But then with someone like an Oracle who doesn't have the balance sheet or the income statement that some of the others do, and you look at the size of the, I can't even remember what it was $400 billion or something. It was a massive step up, 300 in one quarter. Like, you wonder where it was coming from. It's always around, like, can they deliver it and can they pay for it?

And those are the general worries, I think, for anybody that's announcing something. Yeah. How do analysts try and dig into, you know, there's quality of earnings, quality of revenue, quality of backlog? feels like an important thing to begin to, but I don't know that the contracts are available. They're not, right? So, look, I mean, you talk to whoever you can and, you know, you've been doing this while, you look for pattern recognition. But I mean, look, nothing in semiconductors has ever really baked. Sure. Right. I mean, in fact, we just discovered, like, during COVID, a lot of these companies were experimenting

with, quote-unquote, non-cancelable orders. Sure. And we saw what happens. It's like, yes, maybe I could contractually force my customer to take a year's worth of parts they don't need. Yeah. Am I really going to do that? Historically, the answer was no. Yep.

During COVID, for some companies, the answer was yes. And those particular companies are still paying for it. Yeah, yeah. Because, okay, great, I just took all my parts. I don't need to order anything from you for a year, right? Yeah, that makes sense. And so I'm always a little hesitant of backlog and commits. And even some of these, by the way, even with these opening ideas, so they put out

big numbers, but it's not like the whole thing is committed. Like maybe the first gigawatt at this point is committed. Totally, totally. Which is how it should be. Yeah, yeah. Yeah, no, that makes a lot of sense. That's great. Are you AGI-pilled?

No, probably not. I'm not exactly sure what AGI means yet. You know, there's a lot of different definitions, and sometimes it tends to change. Well, do you find AI useful in your day-to-day-life? I do. I have to be a little careful because for a regulatory and compliance stamp, but it's not like I can just start throwing stuff into a model, and I'm very limited. We have some internal stuff that we can use, which is...

Enterprise plan. Yeah, and it's ring fenced and everything. But I mean, simple stuff, right? I mean, what was this? Notebook, L.M. I can literally take a YouTube of this, what is it, a three-hour podcast and toss it in there. And it'll give me a summary, not just try a summary.

And we can take that summary, put it into another model and say, make me a three-hour. Sure, yeah. Pretty soon it's just AI's making and watching podcasts, right? It's a slurry of content. But that's just one example. So there were clearly ways where it's influenced my experience in my work.

And I'm probably on the low end, frankly, of what I could be using. And I am constrained on what I can do with this. I'd love to use it more if I could. That makes a lot of sense. Well, thank you so much for coming by. Oh, you bet. My pleasure.

This is a lot of fun. Have you bet. Have a great rest of your day. We'll talk to you soon. Cheers. While he's hopping off, let me tell you about linear. Linear is a purpose-built tool for planning and building products. Meet the system for modern software development, streamline issues, projects and product roadmaps. Speaking of turning things into a podcast,

Christoph has some fake news here on the timeline. I love Christoph, Coastal Futurist. Christoph says, still crazy to me that Steve Jobs slash Apple invented the word podcast and that it's a mix of iPod and broadcast. And apparently this isn't true. Apparently, a BBC journalist Ben Hammersley coined it in a 2004 Guardian article. But then it got ported back to Apple. and the word in the term podcast was adopted but uh it is it is funny that podcast it did come from

ipod it's always felt like a very boomer term yeah and it makes sense i i never knew that it was it was a combination of oh you didn't know it was ipod plus broadcast yeah yeah what else um the cast casting is very very popular uh anyway with this uh article from evan armstrong over at the leverage, published an article on who actually makes money when robots work, looking into some of the venture funding that's flowing into humanoid robotics. And he is trying to create a field guide for separating the real companies from the grifters. Talks about 1X. The home robot costs $20,000 up front or $4.99 a month.

The website looks like every other VC-funded D-to-C brand from 2015. millennial beige sand serf typography the works buried in the fine print and tech coverage is the actual product for most chores a human in a call center will drive the robot around your house via teleoperation while the system records training data for autonomy that doesn't exist yet and so there's a big question about how like what will the actual margins be and he was trying to dig into that so you can go read evans piece over on the leverage if you want You get a seven-day trial. Who actually makes money, though, when they work?

Is it the call center operators? I believe, I mean, I would not bet against Elon on this. I believe that the hardware manufacturer will ultimately be the one that makes money in the long term. I think that everything else is more commodity in the stack, but there is going to be a compounding advantage to actually having the manufacturing capability to build the robots at scale. Now this is years away, but I'm certainly AGI built in the sense

that the teleoperation will become less and less important and the Tesla model of having a economically producible product will be very, very important. So that would be my take. In other humanoid news, Brett Adcock was putting a company in the truth zone, Shenzhen-based company UB Tech claims to have completed the world's first mass delivery of humanoid robots

and the Shenzhen-based company is secured apparently over $112 million in Walker S2 orders this year Brett Adcock says look at the reflections on this bot and then compare them to the ones behind it the bot in front is real everything behind it is fake

if you see a head unit reflecting a bunch of ceiling lights That's a giveaway. It's CGI. So he's putting UB.TEC in the truth zone. And then Christopher comes over the top and puts him in the, and it says such an embarrassing post for a CEO at this level to make. So people don't necessarily believe that the CGI claimed.

Did UBetech actually deliver it? There's no community note on the original video. For something like this, I mean, we've seen I-Robot. Like, you can actually just do flawless CGI that is indistinguishable. There's no way to tell. So I would be relying on some sort of, you know, on the ground reporting. Do you have an idea, Tyler, of whether or not this is real? We've seen demos of this robot before where it pulls the battery out of the back.

Yeah. I don't know for sure if it's real, but it is a public company. Yeah, so Brett kind of needs this company to be totally fake because UBTech is a public company. It's valued at around $7.5 billion. Okay. And they have real revenue. Okay.

UBTech, man, the U.N. market over in China is extremely competitive. You have UBTech and then you have the – what's the other company that? I keep forgetting? Unitary? There are two different companies, right, but they're both publicly traded, both have revenue, both make humanoids. I wonder if there's like, I wonder what the CEOs of these two companies would actually say. Like, what is the differentiation between the two, the two products? Because they look pretty identical. Maybe we need to do a side by side. But I don't know. What else here? He said, Martin Screlli said, the best part of UB Tech is it's public with real revenue. So its valuation is naturally far below pre. revenue robot or something. Naturally. That's wild. Yeah. Um, yeah, no, I do think it's real, but I don't know. Like, it's, it's really hard to prove it one way or another. It's hard to prove any of these videos that, that come out with the humanoids because humanoids are just like, it's

the textbook, like, CGI product. Like, you can just, if you're all good at CGI, you can make a humanoid robot look great because it's all just polished steel, basically, perfect reflections, it's much harder to make a human face look CGI real. And so we've had the ability to make like CGI Stormtrooper, CGI-C-3PO. Like that's been at perfect, indistinguishable level for years. But getting the actual human level. Yeah, to be honest, I care a lot less about did they use CGI to like put a hundred of these robots in one room versus like what are the actual capabilities of the individual robot, right? So that's why I think 1X, I think they're pretty straightforward about it being teleoperated

or that being kind of the value as you're buying a robot that can be teleoperated in your home. It really feels like these are going to come to the United States, like, fairly soon. Why is Adcock like obsessing over a competitor and then what can he do in the next three to six months to justify his $40 billion evaluation, right? probably needs to ship a bunch of these things, just for any reason, just manufacture a lot of them, I would imagine, because with Unitary and this other company and, you know, 1X is starting to ship and Elon's clearly getting serious, like the race is on to actually start manufacturing and shipping them. And it'll be interesting. With the flying car thing, a lot of it's like

regulatory. So it's harder to assess what the progress is like. like because you can always just kind of get hung up in regulatory. I wonder in the humanoid space. Well, speaking of flying cars, what's up, Tyler? I was just going to say, I think it's interesting. We still haven't really seen any humanoid CEOs, like, talking about sanctions against China. Yeah, I know.

That's the thing to call for, because it's like a very easy argument to make. I would not be calling them fake. I mean, you can do that, but you should just say, like, even if they are real, like we want these made in the U.S., like in the way that you see kind of Dario saying in AI. And it's just kind of weird that you don't see, like, Elon saying that we need to make these in the U.S. or the one-x guys saying... Yeah, bring out the ban hammer. The ban hammer.

Let's... I mean, yeah, I just... That's going to be an easy one for... All you have to do is, like, do you want a million robots in American homes that could have, you know, the sci-fi scenario where you have a backdoor? Yeah. And the argument against DJI was always like, well, you know, If some tiny drone is in your bottom, you know, sock drawer, like, what's it going to do? It's not just going to bust out of there.

But, like, the humanoid will just bust out of the whatever you put them in, unless you store it in, like, your gun safe or something, walking gun safe. Let me tell you about numeral.com. Sales talks and autopilot, spend less than five minutes per month on sales tax compliance. And then we have an update from Keller from Zipline. We're going to watch this two-minute update from him. Pull it up. Hey everyone, it has been an insane two months, but I thought it would be cool to give a two-minute update.

Whenever I post something on X, people are always asking me, like, when is it coming to my metro? Why aren't you scaling faster? We are definitely hearing you. We are scaling as fast as we possibly can. In fact, I am standing in our expansion space for the manufacturing facility as we speak. We're getting ready to build 20,000 autonomous aircraft a year, all here in South San Francisco in the United States. Mid-December, we will actually start producing the first aircraft here in this space. in this space. So this past week, I was in Dallas visiting a lot of our different customers going and visiting a lot of the different stores that Zipune is delivering from. And my mind was

basically blunt. Right now, we're growing the number of deliveries we do per day at around 15% week over week. And we've been growing that fast for about 30 weeks straight. And a lot of our customers out there are placing orders three to four times per week. In fact, some customers are ordering three times a day. People actually just fundamentally change their ordering tickets. Some people are grocery shopping once every one to two weeks. And then ordering for from Zipline three to four times a week just to do fill-ins. We've also been able to launch a new Walmart Super Center every week across Dallas over the last couple months.

And by the way, I've been talking about really exciting hyper scale in the US, but a lot of people are often like, well, wait a minute, isn't that Zipline operating a huge logistics network in Africa? Yes, in fact, that network is growing faster than ever. Today we serve five thousand hospitals and help us across Rwanda, Ghana, Nigeria, Cote d'Ivoire, and Kenya, that has become the largest commercial

autonomous system on earth together. What we do in the US right now is the plane is doing an autonomous delivery about every 30 seconds. We're also adding a lot of new products. For example, in Ghana, we just added HPV vaccine to the overall network. And in the first week, we delivered 150,000 doses of vaccine. This is a crazy scale.

John's back. I'm back. He's coming on the show next week. We love Keller. Congrats to all the folks over at Zipline on. Yeah, really wild. They're building in South San Francisco. Yeah.

I think this is one of those things that's hard for it to be, hard to be that excited about until you get to experience. Ryan, there's a spicy question in the chat. How long until they pivot to a weapons company? I don't think it will happen. I think that drone defense is like the most, it's such a, such a crowded industry. It would be really, really hard to break through there. I don't know, maybe there's something in like logistics. I've talked to a few folks in defense that will do drone-based transportation or delivery for, let's say, how do you get supplies from land onto an aircraft carrier that's stationed off of the coast? Well, you could fly a whole helicopter there, but what if you just want to deliver one smaller package back and forth? You could use a smaller drone for that. there's companies that are building in that category.

So, I mean, I could see it happening, but I wouldn't expect Zipline to be, you know, on the front lines of Ukraine competing with NEROS to, you know, arm the resistance there anytime soon. The drone delivery, like just delivering a burrito is going to be a massive market. Like, DoorDash is, does it. The American way, it's a $100 billion business. Like, I don't think that they need to deal with all the craziness of DOD procurement.

anyway. So someone in the chat mentioned that UBTech fired back and released a behind-the-scenes video. No! Okay, okay, we got to pull that out. Do we have it? Thank you to the chat for letting us...

I'm adding it here. Let's add it. In the meantime, more on robotics. Blake Robbins has a great take that I was curious about. If anyone knows anything about this, please fill me in. He says, as robotics continues

to get more attention, I always wonder what Boston Dynamics is cooking. It feels like Boston Dynamics should have been the open AI of robotics, and yet I can barely mention anyone that worked there. And there's a whole bunch of different debate on, you know, what happened. Boston Dynamics was sold a few times. Boston needs to be studied. Yeah. Boston Dynamics.

What's the dynamic over there? Wait, we, Boston Dynamics, it's the original browser company in New York. They just took their city and what they do and put it together. This is the, you know, the Dynamics Company of Boston, rebrand, come out with the humanoid. Let's play this video. Los Angeles. It's behind the scenes video. Los Angeles Dynamics would just be like an influence, like Lincoln Bios.

Well, at one point, Boston Dynamics sold the Hyundai heavy industries, so I believe they were across the Pacific Ocean. Let's react to the second video posted by the humanoid robotics company. Okay. UBETEC, industrial walkers. They've been pumping these out. It feels like the question has never been, can China make a lot of these things? Like, obviously they can.

In the bio, they said it looked too perfect to be real. And then they used some chat chitis lot. But perfection isn't fabricated. It's delicately in here. It's so good. You know, for a long time, people were saying that there was no way to watermark AI created content

with, because like, oh, how would you do it? You change one. It's like actually all AI content is watermarked. It turns out. It's just perfectly watermarked. Yeah, this looks real to me. I don't know. It also could be CCHI, honestly. It's pretty funny to see Brett say this

was all faked. Yeah. It looks real. I mean, it would be way, they could have done so much better to make this look real. Put a bunch of humans there, touch them. A lot of the hard. part in CGI is the handoff between the CGI character and the human character. And so what you should be doing is you should have a human who takes like a smoothie and

pours it on top of the robot and then like wipes the robot off clean with a towel. And you're seeing how the fluids interact with the robot, interact with the person. And like that was that was not actually that satisfactory. I don't know. I think, I don't know. I'm not calling it fake, but it could be fake because CGI is really, really good. Like, CGI just is at that level where that's possible. Anyway, yeah, we know the caption or the description of the video was AI generated.

That is hilarious that they had to use it for the caption. It's like AI on it. And it's like, after all, it is an AI company. Like, it would be on brand. Anyway, fin.com. AI, the number one AI agent for customer service, number one to performance benchmarks, number one in competitive bakeoffs, number one ranking on G2 and get started for free. Our next guest is Luca from Bending Spoons in the restroom waiting room. Welcome to the show.

Welcome to the show. Good to meet you. How you doing? Hello, hi. Thank you so much. I imagine it's late there. Thank you for staying up late and coming and chatting with us. For those who don't know you, would you mind introducing yourself? Of course. One of the co-founders, the CEO at Benin Spoons, and what we do is we look for digital technology businesses with unexpress potential, and then we acquire them, if they'll sell them to us, and transform them sometimes quite radically by rewriting big chunks of the software, rearchitecting in the cloud infrastructure, redesigning the UI, launching a lot of features, optimizing monetization and marketing, rebuilding big parts of the organization.

So lots of hands-on work, and then if we do it right, we generate a lot of value, we plug back into bigger acquisitions and strengthening with our platform. So basically our proprietary technologies, our expertise, access to talent. The company's huge now, $11 billion valuation. How did you get started with all this? So I founded a startup in 2010. Interestingly, talking about AI, we were trying to create a self-writing diary or journal with AI in 2010, which was pretty early. We couldn't. I mean, it worked fine, but it wasn't good enough.

So that was like your typical startup. You work from a garage. It was really our living room in our apartment. But more or less, the concept is the same way. We worked on it for three years, couldn't make it work commercially. And then we kind of shut it down. And through that experience, we came up with the strategy for Benningspools, basically. Why don't we try to outsource looking for product market fit to the market? We try to be the best in the world that they call it functional expertise that's necessary to run a digital technology business, so software engineering, product design, growth, and all these things. And then we buy businesses where the owner basically doesn't want to work on it any longer or where maybe we can do better so we can offer an exciting price for all involved. Is the reference, is the name a reference to the Matrix? Actually, yes.

yeah it is cool yeah it is it feels like at least to me like it's kind of an odd name for any business it's cool i like the reference but uh why did you pick that name particular in particular so we knew we weren't going to work on just one product okay so we couldn't call it say facebook yeah if you do you know um yeah you need like a name for a holding company on day one sort of yeah something like that so we we chose to to find a name that would uh somehow convey a couple of principles or values that we thought were important to us. And bending spoons reminds us of two things. One is the power of the mind for obvious reasons.

If you are going to bend spoons with your mind, it means you believe it's powerful and you can do a great thing with it. And the other one is call it perseverance, hard work, dedication. In my imagination to get to the point where you can bend spoons with your mind, you probably have to work pretty hard at it. And plus it was kind of memorable, so we liked it. Yeah. I like it. I reached out, or one of us reached out, when the AOL acquisition got announced, like, give us a backstory on that deal, how it came to be, when you started thinking about the business, what value you saw in the business, and maybe why it was a target that was overlooked by maybe. maybe American private equity players

and what you saw in it. There were multiple private equities that were looking at it too. So we weren't the only ones. It was owned by a private equity or it's still owned because the acquisition was only signed. It hasn't closed yet. And so you could imagine how they would run

a proper and competitive process. Typically, we we follow a business for a long time before an opportunity to acquire presents itself. I don't have precise statistics, but off the top of my head, I'd say it's quite rare that we end up acquiring a business we haven't followed for at least a year, sometimes more. So we have been following AOL for a while, and when it became available, we made an offer that we thought was quite competitive, and here we are. What do we see in it?

So I think it's actually a great business. People are a bit stuck with the idea of AOL from the 90s or maybe early 2000s of internet connectivity. It doesn't do that. Haven't done that for a long time. Today, it's two different products. There is a web portal for people to consume news and entertainment and an email client, like Gmail, pretty much. You know, like that's all with me. They have well in excess of 30 million monthly users, 8 million daily active users.

So it's huge, give or take. one in 10 Americans uses it. And it's just not necessarily the new hot thing that you would read about online, but it's still massively used and very good retention because people are self-selected if they still use it for really liking the brand and the offering. And nevertheless, we think we could help make the product

more modern, more effective. We think that through AI, we could create better recommendations for the web experience. essentially better content to consume. We'll see, but it's exciting. We look forward to working with a team on it, plenty to refine and expand.

And it's exciting to work on a story brand. I find it kind of cool, actually, to be able to get a hands dirty with a brand of the caliber of AOL. Yeah, truly is one of the great America Online, one of the great names in business history. How do you think about, like, I feel like Silicon Valley, like, has this sense that businesses are either in hypergrowth or they're dying, right?

And there's nothing in between. And that's just because, like, the industry, venture capital dollars are deployed into companies that are growing really quickly. And as soon as you stop growing, like, that sort of source of capital is turned off. And you kind of fall out of the headlines. But how much, like, I assume, like, the kind of part of the thesis, for bending spoons is that a lot of these businesses are just like way more durable than like the tech industry maybe gives them credit for because even after they're not getting like headlines in tech crunch they can still generate a lot of cash flow for a very long time but

how do you think about like durability of digital businesses and and when they can can become sort of like lindy and survive across decades versus when they evaporate? I would say I kind of agree, and I will say that, if anything, a business that has a lot of history, it's a lot easier to project its future and make accurate forecasts. Maybe, you know, it's not 10x, but you also have a ton of data historical records for all the cohorts at scale to know roughly where it's going. So, yes, maybe the upside is not transformative, as it would be in a seed or VC investment. But if all the stars align, you know, maybe 10x or even 100 extra money, but you also know you're very unlikely to see it melt in your hands.

Many of these businesses have excellent metrics. They're just not cool and hot, so to say. And so the entire capital markets, particularly on the private side, not so much the public side, but on the private side is geared toward growth, very aggressive growth. And there's merit in that, but it also means there's perhaps an opportunity to be less opinionated about. growth at all costs. We, on our part, we try to, we're basically quite mathematical about it. We make our projections, have our own return thresholds, and then we are happy to buy fast-growing businesses. We have many times stagnant businesses, the client businesses, as long as the math checks out. And this has been quite good for us, not being too, you know, thesis,

you know, limited by a very narrow thesis, but actually staying opportunistic. How are you structuring bending spoons? Do you have a deal team and an operational team that goes in and actually runs the companies? Or is it more of a hybrid model where a partner who finds, someone who finds the deal might be immersed in that company throughout the life cycle of owning the deal? Yeah, so it's actually say that we're kind of 25% product equity, 75% our company. So we do have an MNA team. It's actually pretty small, probably eight, nine people. And they do what you would imagine a private equity firm would do.

They create a pipeline, scout the deals, negotiate the deals. And then really probably 95% of the team here are software engineers, product designers, growth managers, I, researchers. And once we close a transaction, we add a call it a task force of experts to get in the trenches we'd acquire team. and study things in fine detail and help with those kind of radical transformations I was describing earlier. So that's the tech technology company part.

Almost all we do is writing software, developing and refining technologies, user experiences. And we buy to hold and operate forever. We're not a fun, to be clear. More like a Bercia Hataway. We buy off our balance if you never sold a business nor do we intend to end to.

So is it fair to think? Yeah, you'll, you imagine AOL and Vimeo existing as companies in 50 years or brands as 50 years or both like what is the critical business units i will call it business units okay so if a company is more a kind of a legal entity that may be dissolved in the future maybe yes may be no depending on considerations but there will be a business unit with its dedicated management team and engineers and designers uh sorry i don't know why that's a on our side.

Zoomed in. We just zoomed you in a little bit for the viewers at home. Sorry. I can see my baby's cradle just in the background. Oh, cool. Nice. Congrats.

We have five kids on our side. It's amazing. Yeah, mine is two and a half months old. Oh, wow. Well, thank you so much for taking the time to come talk to us.

We really appreciate it. My pleasure. Thank you for having me. I'd love to know, like, what is it actually like buying a 5,000 person company or like because I imagine like if I'm like if you buy a company and you can actually go interview everyone but with 5,000 people you're like layers and layers and layers deep and everything like how do you actually go and start right sizing we've seen a little bit of

what happens uh through the stories of Twitter what Elon did there obviously that was a that was a company that it seemed like post-Elon was massively overstaffed. But even if the staffing is correct, I mean, Apollo's owned AOL for a while. So I imagine that it's not wildly overstaffed. How do you actually go in and just get your handle on everything that's happening within the business because it's such a huge entity? So we have never acquired a 5,000 person company. The largest is about 1,000 people. I think your point stands, I mean, but just for accuracy, say. Well, I think it's very difficult, perhaps impossible to do if you are, again, a private equity and you have a small investment team.

In our case, we will add a task force that's sized in relation to the size of the organization we're trying to study. And so if we acquire a 1,000-person company, we'll probably have, say, 50 people. If it's a 100-person company, it may be as few as 10. And then over the course of a couple of months, we will split the work so everyone is in charge of understanding a piece of the organization that's not too big, like the right size for them and specific to their capabilities and expertise. So if there is a more technical part, maybe an engineer, if it's something as to do with design or marketing, you know, and so on and so forth. And then those people will be talking to each individual in that part of the organization multiple times. they will be looking at the code base they'll be contributing on ongoing projects

so we take our time to learn I mean I was about to say everything there is to know of course that's not entirely true like you don't learn everything in two months but truly learn the vast majority of what matters and only then do we come up with say a new vision for the company a new roadmap a new design for the

updated organization it is extremely time-consuming and only feasible if you have a large call it corporate staff of experts like in our case only then can you do it at scale otherwise yeah you couldn't

I agree yeah what how much is like I'm assuming when you're thinking evaluating a potential acquisition you're thinking how much can this company benefit

from AI and what is kind of the AI disruption risk oftentimes it could be both I can you know imagine with AOL you're saying like better content recommendation that you could roll out maybe with less resources invested. But at the same time, there's risk of new companies, you know, entering the market. But what's your, any sort of like framework that you're using to evaluate what companies are going to do well? Because

nightmare scenario is you buy like a great business today and that becomes, you know, less relevant. But there's also, I think Silicon Valley also maybe, again, going back to my earlier point around durability. Like, there's companies from, you know, that have been disrupted multiple times that can still continue to produce cash flow, but I'm curious what your framework is. Yeah, so I think there's, I believe you can come up with plausible visions for the future. I mentioned earlier, we were working with AI in 2010 where I didn't know a single other person who was interested in AI back then. So, I mean, I'm sure there were many in the world, but it was not mainstream. So, you know, we did have a big vision for AI in the long run. It turned out

to be way too early, maybe a decade or more. So I'm a big believer in, yes, you want to have a vision for the future, but at the same time, if you think you know what's going to happen, and especially over what timeline, you're very likely to be disappointed. So I would never want to bet our future on those sort of assessments. What we try to do is evaluate whether our company is more or less likely to be disrupted and of course also enhanced through AI and that's basically a qualitative assessment. We try to embed that in our acquisition thesis,

but also we always need a contingency plan in case there is a very aggressive rapid disruption. So we need to make sure that we have ways to get back our investment in case we end up in that, or most of our investment if we end up in that scenario. So some businesses are structured in a way that if things don't go well, you may be able to trade long-term health for short-term returns and at least salvage your investment overall.

I mean, it's not going to be a stellar investment, but still you break-even. So we try to have an escape route just in case things don't turn out the way we think they will. And of course, the fact that we're so diversified, the biggest business we own contributes about 15% to our revenue. and they are across many different segments. We are massively less exposed to this sort of disruption than any company running just one product,

no matter how successful that one product may be today. Yeah. Any plans to create a neocloud or anything of the sort, or are you guys like staying at the product level? No, no such plans for now. what's the Italian early stage technosis? I want to dig into that a bit more just out of curiosity because I'm assuming there's a lot of different players

that would love to give you guys capital to help deploy cloud given that you're running a lot of companies that are going to be buyers of compute and you have a track record of being able to deploy large amounts of capital. is the decision to, like, the strategy is you're invested in a bunch of different companies, but do you like them to be the same kinds of companies? And that, like, again, is it just a mandate around digital products or would you one day branch out?

Because, again, if you use the Berkshire Hathaway Comp, it's like you've seen them buy everything from Coca-Cola to Google, right, and operate a bunch of different businesses. Yeah, look, I think there's a trade-off between, let's say there is a, going back to Warren Buffett, a circle of competence, as he calls it, where you're proven you're good or very good, better than most. And so on the one hand, if you stay within that circle of competence, you're more likely to do well. But at the same time, if you venture outside of it,

you extend your toolkit, your capabilities, and the TAM grows with it too. So there is a trade-off between expanding that circle over time while seizing the opportunity at hand with what's already have proven that works. In our case, we'll be, next year will probably be at about $2.5 billion in revenue. And the overall digital technology market

is about $2 trillion. So it's not exactly what we're saturating the opportunity here. So before we get into something we know very little about other than on a high level, I think we should make sure that we are. saturating the core opportunity. But yeah, maybe in five or ten years, if we ever feel that we're getting too big for the time, and maybe we'll look beyond that. We know what will be appealing then. Do you think it's funny that the U.S. venture capital ecosystem is somewhat

like off-balance sheet R&D for you guys? It's like they can deploy a bunch of capital into these categories, create good products like Evernote, and then you guys can come in and and own them for the long term? Look, we, when it comes to acquisitions, we're opportunistic. I don't, you know, whatever the market offers, if you think we can deliver great returns, we'll be happy to buy it regardless of the particular history. I don't know, I don't have any other gratitude

or any particular opinion on that. You know, VCs have many have done really well. I guess it's normal that, at least in some cases, their investment didn't turn not to be the exceptional success that could have been. In many cases, some of those firms actually IPOed and

delivered a bunch of returns for the LPs in the venture fund. I am interested in you've acquired, Evernote's probably a good example, but any example of acquiring a company that's already publicly traded,

how does that work? How do you work through those that process. Are you going directly to the board? Are there best practices around like when a company or a group of shareholders might be more receptive to a to a takeover or do you see yourself ever getting into more of like a hostile takeover scenario? Does that does that matter to your strategy? We've done to take private. so far. One is Bright Cove early this year

and the second one is V-mail. So I'm now, I wouldn't consider myself a world expert in private, but I've seen a couple of them so I can probably provide at least some input here. We have done it quite collaboratively reaching out to the board and

just saying, look, we'd be interested and when you make an offer. I would say the negotiation is not massively different from what you would do in a private deal, But there is a lot more pressure on a board of a public company to act in the best interests of the broader shareholder base because the liability is a lot more. Legally speaking, it's probably not very different, but of course the transparency of that process makes it really difficult to say, I don't like it, fuck you. You know, if it's a good offer, you have to entertain it.

So on the bright side, if you have a great offer relative to the stock price, you have, I think, better certainty that it will be able to. least entertained than with private companies where sometimes you find you're absolutely confident you're making an incredible offer but say the founder is just not not going to sell or a particular investor maybe invested at a really high valuation and they're now maybe even delusional in thinking oh we'll get back to three billion if we wait for you know long enough and so there you don't really have any leverage it's like okay end of end of the conversation with a public company that can't really happen or at least is quite rare on the on the on the you know So that's the positive.

On the negative, the process is a little bit more uncertain because with a private deal, typically if you have a handshake agreement with the two, three decision makers, then it's quite unlikely that the deal falls through. The public company, basically at any point in time, if someone comes with a better offer, and it can be quite public. So everything is back to square one. You need to show their vote. So you only know after multiple months,

And so you're kind of keeping your fingers crossed. But overall, I love public deals. I think there are in many ways more straightforward. There's no hiding behind delusions. I mean, your stock price speaks volumes. And if it's been at a certain level for a long time, that is it, you know, for the most part. Yeah. Is it also, do you have more confidence in audited financials or any other sort of process power that comes from actually being a public company?

Do you feel like when you go into a company that's been taken private, you can just feel the difference. Oh, okay, this company has been operating like a public company and that has maybe pros and cons, but you can definitely tell, or is it purely in the deal stage that you feel that there's a difference? We have seen private companies that are run really well in terms of the FBNA and we've seen public companies, have to reach a pretty high bar. So, yeah, I guess you're more certain that, on the one hand, you're more certain that the public company will be better geared to provide you with, say,

the due diligence materials you need and whatnot. On the other hand, there's generally, and understandably so and rightfully so, more risk aversion in a public company, because if there is a leak that can truly, you know, create a pretty difficult situation for everybody involved, which product companies, it leaks are also less likely because the incentives to leak something are lower. There are all sorts of perverse incentives with a public company for obvious reasons because the stock is so liquid.

So sometimes deals are leaked that if the company was private, it wouldn't be leaked. So I would say, yes, the data tends to be a little bit more ready cleaner. But on the other hand, the company tends to be more carefully in bringing people under the tent. And so at the end of the day, it's not always necessarily faster or easier. You know, I think, frankly, I don't see that's a major point of difference, to be honest. I think it's not so important when you look for an acquisition. Do you have any type of internal forecast around when some of the current, the new generation of like, or just the new crop of AI native startups will start becoming for sale?

Because like right now, if you're growing quickly and you have a great product, you can probably raise a bunch of capital. But I could imagine in two-ish years, there's companies that maybe don't fully break out that have great products but aren't necessarily going to be public companies one day themselves. No, we haven't discussed that. we try to focus our time and effort on things we control. So our focus right now is to just meet as many great entrepreneurs and investors and private equities and management teams and bankers as possible to make sure we are involved promptly every time there is an intention to sell a business. We have historically been a great acquire very fast, highest bid every single time we

actually competed and essentially no requirements on management teams to stay if they don't want to stay. So we just need to make sure we are called upon if something is happening, but we don't necessarily need to know or have an opinion whether in three years time or two years time a a particular company becomes available. There are so many variables that we wouldn't be planning for being ready for that anyway, so who cares in a way? Yeah, makes sense. Last question from my side, how are you think about synergies across the portfolio? You're not doing roll-ups, but there are some similarities between the video products developed by Breitko, Vimeo. Are you thinking about how these businesses fit together over the long term, or do you see

them all as like individual products and companies that you want to kind of grow in their own way? Yeah, great question. So the short answer is the latter. The reason is, that I think those synergies are actually much more limited than people would imagine. And also, and perhaps more importantly, we believe that our business units tend to perform a lot better if they are allowed to operate with extreme levels of autonomy and flexibility. We want our small teams to feel like they are almost like a startup, like we basically we trust them to make decisions and move quickly.

And if you start asking many business units to coordinate on branding and cross-selling and yadri-y-y-di-ya, then all of a sudden you're creating a ton of glue and that kills sense of ownership, agility, excitement. So it's a trade-off. You want to have teams that feel very entrepreneurial and empowered or maybe extract an additional 5% of revenue through, say, cross-selling or some sort of bundling. we find a former in the long ground yields much better returns

so we go for it. In a way, I think you can think of a band in spruce a little bit like the technological version of the PNG, Procter & Gamble, where there is a ton of shared infrastructure and capability in their case, I suppose, I don't know them well, logistics and distribution and marketing

and product development, but when you look at the brands, they sell, most people wouldn't even know that they are by the same broader corporations, And in a way, we would like Benisvon's to be similar. We don't really care necessarily that, say, an Evernote customer knows that Benin Spoon is behind it. And we're fine out of way, but we don't try to push that message on them, as long as they think Evernote is perfect for them and they stay subscribed and they love it. And in fact, we think that if we try to homogenize our brands, we would be destroying a lot of the value that we acquire in the first place with these story brands and loyal customer bases.

That makes a lot of sense. Makes a lot of sense. Thank you so much for taking some time. So soon after having a child to join our show, we really appreciate it talking to you. I learned a lot. So thank you so much for taking the time. Thanks a ton, Luca. Come on any time.

Yeah, we'd love to talk to you more. I'm looking forward to following the journey. Have a good one. Cheers. My pleasure. Take care. Before we bring in our next guest, let me tell you about Adio, customer relationship magic.

Adio is the AI Native CRM that's build, scales, and grows your company to the next level. fun fact jordie bright cove acquired by bending spoons was founded by jeremy allaire who runs circle now yeah 2004 uh very fun well our next guest is healy from boom pop healy how you doing welcome to the tvpon ultra down hey hey how's it's up man been a while cooking how you doing man good to see you good to see you uh introduce yourself for those who don't already know yeah yeah uh my name's heley cipher i'm the CEO co-founder of boom pop yeah and we are actually not so funny hold one second here i'm gonna close us yeah no worries okay i got yeah um yeah we're an ai power group travel company i've been running and selling

companies my whole career i'm from nebraska which is a small state in the center of the country you probably haven't been to and the plot twist is i think we've all flown over it in sundrya wait what you grew up in saudi arabia i didn't remember that that's crazy oh yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah reaad for 16 years wow yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah very cool anyway let's go back to What is somebody, if, what is the must-do thing in Saudi Arabia for you? Beast World wasn't there when you were there. How did you survive? Beast land.

The new hotness in Saudi, there's this place called, I think so Al-Aaba, it's like Petra and Jordan, but in northern Saudi. And they actually, I think they're building an Amman there right now. So there's like, there's some stuff going down. Yeah, it's pretty cool. It's here. You know a Mon property. Fine.

So give us the latest, give us the news, give us the fundraising news. Yeah, yeah, thanks, man. So we raised a $25 million round, pulled in some, oh, yes, thank you. There we go. Appreciate that, appreciate that. Thank you, Jordi. Pulled in some debt and equity. And yeah, it's all about growth, you know.

Yeah. I think travel has produced some really good returns for venture. You know, you think about Airbnb, Expedia booking, it's crushed. People don't think about it. travels like 10% of global GDP. It's $11.7 trillion. Wow. And often when you think of travel, especially in the corporate setting, you kind of think of whatever, your EA is booking you a flight. Yeah. Turns out, 60% of corporate travel is stuff involving groups. It's like an offsite or an SKO. And especially in today's day and age, we're finding the demand for group travel is the most

it's ever been. Some fun facts. One, most people are exceedingly less trustful of Zoom meetups. They one of people, people in person, most AI companies now are hiring event teams. Like, it's like one of the first hires because it turns out for scaled ARR businesses, events are like one of the number one demand channels. And so as you looked at group travel, we were kind of like, wait, wait, wait. It's this massive part of travel. And it's so anachronistic. If you want to, for example, book over 10 hotel rooms, you literally can't do that online.

Did you know that? Yeah, it's crazy. We run into this a fair amount of times just with a small team travel. like, uh, it happens. I don't know if you saw that block, uh, party that they had, uh, or like showed up in their earnings because they spent so much on food travel. They spent like 68 million or something on one of the craziest stories on one trip. No, this is, this is real. Like, I was at this conference and the then president of Brex walked over to me. He was like, hey, are you Hewley of Boom Pop? And I was like, yeah, but who cares,

man? Like, you're the president of Brex. Like, I'm nobody. He goes, no, no. Guess what? The second biggest expense category is for all of our companies. after payroll. And I was like, no way. He goes, it's group travel and events, man. It's like, holy shit. So it's on the rise.

It's crazy. Yeah, so talk to the actual product experience. How do you, and then how do you actually make money? Are you just taking a fee on top of whatever is booked? Is that the secret? Yeah, yeah, yeah. So the product is pretty rad.

The secret to success? Or, I mean, it could be like seat-based. Yeah, yeah, yeah. It brings out you should buy low, then sell high. Yes, this is good. This is good. I like that.

Yeah. Heard it here, folks. Yeah, so it's simple. You talk to our AI agent. You give it a simple prompt. You're like, yo, I want to do an offsite within whatever, a two-hour drive of L.A., a budget of this, 50 people, with some cool fun outdoor activities, what should I do. And it looks at millions of data points. It looks at weather, a seasonality, or telepricing, what you've done, what your guests like.

And then it puts together a couple of really good options. Like, here's Josh Retrie, by the minute of what you do. here's Pioneer Town you haven't heard of. You should go there. Here's Montecito. Go there. And then if you like it, you just say, hey, cool, do it. The AI will then go out. It'll reach to the vendors. It'll negotiate form. Look at the contract. It'll book them for you. It makes an agenda. It even makes your website in a couple seconds, keeps it live. And when people are as VP, my favorite thing is everyone gets a text message, all your guests get a text. And it's from the AI on the phone. And so over text, it's like, yo, how can I help? And you can say, hey, like, how do I get to the hotel?

it's like take an Uber you idiot like oh okay or like who else is landing right now and it's oh well Jordy and Kugan land around this time you feel like to share an Uber and you're like oh that's awesome so it's it's like this corner of travel which is so big and it's all these random joint solutions like point solutions and we decided let's just put it all into one place where it's super easy our ultimate vision is very simply we want to be the default way the world gets together I'm sure you guys have seen all that you know I saw chessky on on VPN I think it was last week like we got a problem guys we have a really real problem. I mean, people are lonely. They're not getting together. I don't know if you saw this

study. Back in the 70s, it was 8 out of 10 high school seniors said they would party twice a week. Now it's one in 10. Like, that's a problem. That's a party. Red alert. We don't even know how to party in this country anymore. That's right. That's right. That's right. So that's how it works. Yeah. And then, yeah, it's a simple SaaS model. You pay a very low amount. And then we make money from the hotels. Okay, cool, cool. Yeah, all the money in travel, it turns out, is in hotels. Yeah. It's not in flights. Yeah, that makes sense. Are you, so we were thinking about taking the team to F1 and I ran something through ChatGPT, hey, build a whole thing, couldn't get to a place

where we could just build it, didn't really, didn't really hit the goal, but are you worried about some of the agent of commerce being a headwind or can you turn AI and ChatGPT into like a tail wind and actually more of a top of funnel for you. Yeah, yeah, totally. No question it'll be, it'll be a tailwind and top of funnel. I think about this a lot. Like, AI applications are under a lot of scrutiny. Like, aren't you screwed? Like, it's kind of like the 1990s. Everyone's like, why would you build an app? Microsoft is going to roll you. And that's what everyone says about AI apps. It turns out it's not going to do everything. Yeah. And so there's kind of, I think there's three things you can do in general as an AI app to like protect yourself. One is you have some sort

proprietary data. We've got that. We've spent two years building out a database, and it's got all this stuff you can't find in chat to PT, like private dining rooms. How would you do that today? You got to Google it. You got a call. Meeting spaces. We have a bunch of stuff you wouldn't get. The second thing I think you've got to have is a learning network that they don't have access to. So every event that happens in our platform, it makes the next event faster and easier. The next event faster and easier. So if you talk to a hotel and they come back and try to negotiate something, we know exactly what they did at the last 100 events. We're not going to send that to us. We make it easier.

Sure. And the third thing, which tends to be under indexed, is just building a purpose-built application for a specific use case. It turns out like, just looking at black and white. I actually think that. I know. I totally agree. I totally agree with you.

I mean, I've just been testing, like, LLMs on finding, like, browsing the internet for cars that I'm, that I'm, like, interested in. And they're just, it's so. Yeah, you would assume that, like, Auto Tempest is cooked. And yet you can still go to like an auto tempest and search across all the cars, right? Yeah. Yeah. It's wild.

Totally. And that's not even too much. I mean, my experience on, uh, John, John and I are, are probably not good at, like, event logistics. Like, we just don't pay any attention to it. So whenever we're traveling, we're like, what airport are we going to? What hotel are we at? Like finding.

And, and so Nick on our team, bless his heart is just like kind of locked in around the clock when we're traveling to make sure. Bennett, and it would just be nice to be able to go to a single place in order to. But now you can. And we thank you for coming on the show. Have a great day. Thanks so much. You're coming and hanging out.

Thanks, too. Thanks, George. Appreciate it. And congrats, by the way. This is awesome. Thank you. Great to have you on and congrats to your whole team. Yeah.

Cheers. We'll see you soon. Thanks. Let me tell you about public.com investing for those tickets. Seriously, they got multi-asset investing industry of the new yields. They're trusted by millions. Our next guest is John Tennant from Chaos, Industries, I believe, chaos. the chaos industry is correct yeah how you guys doing great we're great welcome to the show

thanks so much for hopping on the show i love one i love the suits uh yes bo and i were going to wear the dumb and dumber tuxedos to our christmas party this year we might need to go yellow yellow is a good one uh is i imagine your whole brand is like black and white so you can't get too crazy with it but if you ever put you know we got some we got some tan in there but that's what we figured like maybe you go dumb and dumb and um tuxed maybe like maybe like high viz like you're on the work site like you know orange or something that might be like high viz multi cam like i think that could work pretty well yeah yeah yeah yeah bring the construction site into the into the suit the formal suit this holiday season anyway uh let's kick it off a billion dollars huge number

who'd you raise it from let's go yeah uh we led from valor equity partners um um hey by the way also sorry i got it i'm like swagger jacking you guys in every turn Where did you get the gong? Because, again, this is something Bo and I have been talking about. We want to get like a sales gong in the new office. You should. Got to get one. We should make.

We should make. Yeah, we'll figure out how to send you a gong. I'll buy it for you guys. Yeah, yeah, yeah. We have a couple, uh, we, we actually become like somewhat of gong experts where we've tested a number of different gongs. We've learned that if you don't warm them up, you can break them. Uh, durability, sound quality.

Also, the price gets exponentially bigger, like, exponentially, high. higher. So going from like a 30 inch gong to an 80 inch gong will like 100x the price. So you go from like 800 bucks. It sounds like it's a good margin for you guys. I know. You raised quite a bit. My co-founder is probably like the greatest technical mind of a generation, like the in-depth conversation he and I got into about the right type of gong that he wants to buy for the LA office. So I think we may have to both come back and talk through this of you guys pretty soon. Yeah. Yeah. Anyway, we're not here just to talk about gongs. We're to talk about you. Can you introduce, like, yourself, the shape of the business, how you're

describing it these days? Yeah, yeah. So first of all, thanks again for having us. Yeah, so founder chaos industries. So we sort of look at the world in three waves, kind of is this sector has grown over the last 20-some years. And, you know, wave one, you have Palantir and SpaceX, Wave 2 of Anderl, and, you know, wave three, we didn't see like another big multi-product sort of new prime being built. And that's sort of where that was the sort of initial thesis seen kind of where the world was going in terms of especially, you know, the Russians have been taking advantage of the lack of integrated air defense systems in Ukraine. And they've been attacking energy infrastructure and civilian targets sort of in an effort to break the world of the Ukrainian people. You know, the Iranians have been helping them, you know, build their drone capacity. And so we sort of saw this.

And all the while, by the way, the Chinese are watching here about, you know, what's going to, you know, what could happen in Taiwan. So I think we took it from the angle of, you know, we got worried about the fact that America's losing air superiority. And so we wanted, it's like the first wave of our products. We wanted to build, get away from sort of the monolithic legacy structures that were built during the Cold War and bring new arms systems to the war fight and really protect our people downrange. So multi-product, interesting. Anderle certainly gotten there, but started with a sensor tower and then, you know, Anvil, like one, you know, counter U.S. drone system. Did you follow a similar path knocking down single products to get multi-products? Or did you, like, the compound startup thing where you, on day one, we're working on multiple products to bring them all together?

So we were, so we were, the chunk we were biting off first is sort of in the radar markets. We've got four different products. Okay. Now there's now, but there's a sort of long tail of products that we're investing in that the Department of War has been asking for as well. And we'll come back on and talk about some of that stuff in the future with you guys. But the goal here is we're going to do this the right way you have to be multi-product. How much of what you're doing in radar, when you say multi-product within radar is different radar technologies or the same radar, like the same data output, but this one is waterproof. This one flies.

This one goes in the back of a truck. I would say different deliverable packages. Yeah, I would say like completely different form factors, different technology. Oh, everything. Types of sensing technology. So we've kind of like rewritten the book on how it's done. And I think it's big credit to obviously Bo.

He knows more about, you know, weapon systems, radars than, you know, most people, he's forgotten more than most people will be able to learn in a lifetime. He's probably was brilliant technical mind I've ever seen. And why is the old radar not good enough? Is that because the drones are getting smaller these days? It can't see drones, right? These are legacy monolithic systems, right? So one, manufacturing times are way too long.

Sure. The form factors are enormous. So I think if you look at Patriot, right, like the thing's size of a tractor trailer, you'll be lucky to get those within two and a half years of, in three. And like, look, they do some things really, really well. Like, don't get me wrong. But these are sort of like monolithic legacy Cold War era built systems. And the reality is the battlefield's changed very,

dramatically and you need more treatable systems as well as sort of like more expeditionary systems. I think like you guys had my buddy Scott Sanders on this week, right? Yeah. Portaara. So shout out Scott. I love you. But, you know, we partner with Fortera, right? Because like the ability to have these systems be mobile and move around the battlefield and not have your transmit and you receive in the same location, I think is, you know, buys our warfighters so much more time than they would already have. And I think if you talk to our chief mission officer, Chris Musselman. You know, Musselman.

You know, he was a steel team. Yeah. Well, he was a name, he's a steel name, Chris Musselman, by the way. Oh, let's go. Half the reason I started, by the way, half the reason I started trying to get my PRs in the wait room again is because Musk comes and talks shit to me every name in the office. Excuse me, I don't know if I can curse on here. But I think Musl will tell you.

For Muslman. Sorry. But I think Musk would tell you that, you know, 30 seconds is it in a crime fight? Like, we're buying exponentially more. time. So that's really the goal here. Is the U.S. Department of War happy to buy systems that are maybe influenced by the war in Ukraine? Like are the learnings they are translating or do the Ukrainians want something that is maybe fundamentally different from the way the U.S. set up? No, I mean, I think Ukraine is one of the best test beds out there. I mean, we've had our systems over there

for a long time. I think is we sort of look at this as two prongs, right? Because there's a big international component to what we do. So our international partners, all they care about is, hey, has this been tested on the front lines in Ukraine, right? And then I think, you know, if you look at some of the work we've been able to do overseas, you know, in the Middle East and in Ukraine, it is a real key discriminator when we go in.

It's like we don't have a PowerPoint. Like, we've got data. The thing works, you know, take a look at it, right? And so I think it's been a big, big help. Yeah. Are you optimistic about the Ukraine war winding down? It feels like it's gone on much longer than I expected it to. It's been this war of attrition. I've been very hopeful that there'll be just some sort of conclusion soon. You'd hope so. I mean, I think obviously just terrible what's been happening over there. And so this is why, you know, we want to do our part to help. Yeah. But, you know, it doesn't seem like it's ending anytime soon. But again, you know, I'm not a policy. so I don't have an asymmetric view into it. Yeah. Putin needs to pivot to AI.

He's falling behind in the race for artificial intelligence. It should be focused on building data centers instead of bombing other people. Building tanks into building gongs. Yes, yes. Do something productive. Putin. Stop fighting. I still wouldn't buy gongs if he made him, though.

I'm only buying from you guys. Thank you. American gongs. Well, thank you so much for coming on the show. George, you have another question? Now, great to meet. Yeah. And congrats on the massive round.

Congrats on the long of progress. And thank you for everything that you're doing to support. Appreciate it. Thank you guys. Hope to see you guys in person soon. Yeah, that'd be great. Come on the show for the next round. Yeah.

Whatever letter that is. We'll do. Absolutely. Cheers. Thanks, guys. Bye. Let me tell you about 8Sleep.com. Get a pod five, five-year warranty.

30-air risk, free returns, free shipping. And also, let me tell you about adquick.com. Out of home, advertising. made easy and measurable, say goodbye to the headaches of out-of-home advertising. Only ad-quick combines expertise, data to enable efficiency technology, out-of-home expertise, data to enable seamless ad buying across the globe. I was checking my eight sleep score. I got a 93. Let's go. Let's hear it for me. Hey, we got Reid. Welcome to the show. How you do? Here, have a seat. Have a seat. While he's sitting down. I'll also tell you. I'll also tell

you about. I love that. Bezell, getbezzle.com. Your bezel concierge is available now source you any watch on the planet. Seriously, any watch. Quick risk check to start. You know, I miss the yellow jacket and pants. Yes, yes. It was, it was, uh, it is. So our, our lead sponsor, Ramp raised a big fundraising round today. Uh, we have the CEO in the show. Fourth round of the year. We knew they were going to be raising a lot. Yep. We decided to get these suits. And when we initially, uh, yeah, when we initially thought of the bit, oh, let's get some yellow suits. I sort of assumed that we'd just go and buy like a yellow suit from Target. Jordy called our tailor and got a very nice tailored yellow suit.

And I was like, that's hilarious. It was very funny, but we wound up using it a lot. It looked great for us. Anyway, please introduce yourself for those who might not. Oh, yeah. My name's Reed, founded a company called Knight. You and I have known each other now going on probably like three years. But we represent the biggest creators on Twitch, YouTube.

It's kind of taken on a life of its own now. I'd say we're like, the idea at the beginning was like be the internet's management company. Sure. That's kind of transition to like be the internet's media company. And so we bought a podcast network from Warner Brothers called The Roost. We have a venture studio, a few things that have come out of that, like feastables with Mr. Beast, tone with Kai Sinette, Outtake, which is the company that you guys are probably familiar with. So that's a little bit of the company.

And then, you know, I represented Mr. Beast for seven years. So it was a crazy seven years. Okay. Maybe we start with like a state of the union in just like, where opportunities are for creators. It felt like TikTok was the hottest place to, if you were going to be a creator, TikTok was the place you could go break through.

Then Mark Zuckerberg copied it with reels and YouTube answered with shorts. And maybe the plateau in TikTok world was like a little bit, like maybe they were slowing down and then they were going through this, will it get banned, well it won't. And so there was a little bit of hesitance if you're a new creator to maybe pick that platform.

Is that overstated? there's still opportunity on TikTok? No, there is. I think being a creator today, it's the easiest it's ever been just because discoverability is so easy. And I think that also becomes the hard part with TikTok is

the algorithm has gotten so good that like if the three of us pulled up our four U pages, like all of them would be completely different. So I think a breaking out. It also makes it more competitive for existing creators where if you were living in a world

that was like wasn't Algo feeds, if you just got to a critical mass of subscribers, it wasn't as competitive with, like, a new creator would have to grind it out for five, ten years before they could actually be competitive. And now, if you're just making better content, it will get surfaced faster. Yeah. Yeah. If you, like, during COVID, everyone was seeing Charlie Demilio dance videos, like she went from zero to 100 million. That's very challenging to do in today's world, just because your content gets fed to the people that only want to watch that, and your content

doesn't get seen by people who don't want it. I think the platforms have actually done the same thing across the board where they don't really want creators to break out and become a Mr. Beast anymore. They'd rather widen out the mid-tier. And so they'd rather have, you know, YouTube, for example, I think would rather have 10,000 creators with 5 million subscribers than have 100 creators with 100 million subscribers. Like, they don't want that. I think a lot of that is like they don't, they also don't want creators to have any leverage against the platforms. And so it's been interesting seeing that like shift over the last three years to this like, you know, push down a little bit further and make, make it harder for people to really break out.

And what is the nature of Mr. Beast's leverage over YouTube? Is it just that if he says YouTube isn't treating creators, you know, correctly, that'll be front page news, or is it something more about the structure of his business? I think a lot of it is when, you know, there is like negative press, and we saw this for those people that are like OG YouTubers, like PewDie Pie kind of went through this whole,

like, adpocalypse back in the day. That was very negative on the platform as a whole. Sure. And so I think when you get individuals that are at the top of those platforms and they start to almost overshadow the platform because they've gotten so big that when negative press starts to come out about them, now advertisers are pulling out. We started to see this a little bit on Twitch because it is a very top heavy platform. And so I think that is a lot to do with it. You know, I think in Jimmy's case, like for the longest time, you would go on trending page and he was just dominating trending page. And so it's, you know, now it's like people don't really go on trending page.

but even on homepages now, there's a lot of variety of different content. That's ultimately what the platforms want. They're trying to widen out their fan base as well. Talk about the evolution of Twitch. You gave us the basics on TikTok. Twitch is interesting because when I see what Google is doing, YouTube is like front and center in so much of what YouTube does.

And yet I feel like with Twitch, it's not really the front and center star property for Amazon. as a corporation. And I'm wondering if that reflects just it being a little bit more arm's length, a little bit newer of an acquisition, maybe. I mean, it's still been a decade. But what's the vibe on Twitch these days? Man, we could have a whole conversation about this.

I think your observation is correct that Twitch inside of Amazon, they haven't really cared about it. You know, they'll do deals now that is predominantly focused on Amazon Prime Video. Yeah. And Twitch is somewhat ignored. You know, I do think like it's such a small, like, peanut inside this Amazon ecosystem that even if Twitch's revenue quadruples doesn't really do anything for Amazon as a whole. And it also is this weird dynamic where, and correct me if I'm

wrong, but there might be a lot of money being made on Twitch, but a lot of it is driven by the Twitch Prime program, which is not actually new dollars for Amazon, whereas subscribers on YouTube, premium subscribers, that's just actual dollars that people are paying. Yeah, you're saying like net new. explain that for a second. So a couple years ago, Amazon released something where every Amazon Twitch, or sorry, every Amazon Prime person gets a free Twitch sub. So they can essentially use their Amazon Prime to subscribe to some person's switch, which would be $5 a month in most cases. So what you're saying is like, no, that's no longer net new revenue. They've never released how many actual Twitch, like subscribers are like actual Amazon Prime. So we have no idea.

Oh, we don't. But I would guess it's a large number. It felt like it was like, at least in the early days it was like 80% because it was like, my parents have my parents have Amazon Prime. Did anybody try to make a stream that's just like make me a millionaire and they're just streaming and they're just trying to get people to like use their one Amazon sub. Well, I mean, tell

some stories about subathons. Yeah, I mean the subathons became a thing a couple years ago. Kais obviously had the most notariable one. He had Mafiathon which led into the third version of that that we did this last year. It was 31 straight days, 24 hours a day. He broke a million subscribers over a 31 day period. But

Sub-a-thons are not a new thing, but people using Amazon Prime to subscribe to Twitch has been around for a while. And that is like the hook that a lot of people use. They'll be like, use your one Amazon Prime sub on me. And so Twitch does, like we know kind of what their advertising revenue is, but we have no idea what the makeup of like a Twitch Prime subscriber is. But it has been disappointing. I think from someone who sits on the creator side, that, you know, whose company represents

the majority of the Twitch streamers. You know, YouTube leaned so heavily, or Google lean so heavily into YouTube as a platform underneath their umbrella, where Twitch does feel like this, like, kind of like band of misfit toy inside of Amazon that they don't really care about, don't really talk about. Even when they do the, you know, the NASCAR deal and they're negotiating to get all these rights for the NBA, it doesn't even feel like Twitch is in those conversations. That's also been frustrating for us too because for a lot of guys that are streaming on Twitch, that's their main distribution. Have you tried to buy Twitch? I think that we would have to, uh, because I know, and I, and I, I know like it sounds crazy, but there's a world where you have all of the talent,

like a lot of the most important talent on the platform. There's a lot of investors out there that if they would happily probably, if you're like, hey, this is being under, you know, this underappreciated Amazon and we can turn it at it. I don't know what, wasn't it like a billion dollar acquisition, yeah like that feels like it feels like worth well more than that the psychology of the 99999 is so funny it's like clearly there was some weird board fight I just don't know why Amazon would sell it

like why would they part ways with it it would only ultimately make them look bad if someone could come in and actually operate this so I don't know yeah I would be the first in line but we were joking about how we were praying for Andy Jassy to get on Twitch because obviously he's a very by the book. You know, he operates AWS.

He's a very quantitative executive. But if you look at like Mark Zuckerberg, he's on Instagram. He's using the platform. And it's like, of course Apple's keynote will be streamed on Apple TVs. Of course Google's going to do I.O. on YouTube. And yet Amazon hasn't really leaned into Twitch in that way of like, hey, maybe if we bring our executives here, it's always been like, it's a little bit too crazy. Like that's a little party. And we're like a little bit more serious over here.

You'd have to think like if you're going to pay a billion dollars for the NBA rights, that you would have to allow Twitch streamers to go stream courtside whenever they want. They get full locker room access. Like you'd have to open up the aperture so all those creators could benefit from Amazon owning the NBA rights, which ultimately like just keeps people in the system that can then watch the games or watch their favorite Twitch streamer backstage or whatever that stream ends up being. Who knows if Amazon will ever care? hasn't been fully integrated in any meaningful way, whereas with YouTube is like front and center

and so many of the different parts of the ecosystem with like V-O-3 and that generative AI stuff, it flows right back. And so what's the best, what's the best platform to be a top creator on when you think about Twitch, YouTube, Instagram, TikTok? It's to me not even, it's not even question. It's YouTube by far. Like I think just their alt monetization, their AdSense monetization, like if you're at the, even in the top 10,000 channels on YouTube, you're making significant income. And I've said this for a long time.

Like we kind of value a fan of just like relative time spent with that individual. And people are spending a lot more time with individuals on YouTube than they are on TikTok. You know, you'd have to watch, I don't even know how many TikToks of a single person to get up to like a 17 minute Mr. Beast video. where the average person's consuming 70 to 80% of that video. Yeah, yeah. Yeah. So, do you believe in this, I like this exchange rate concept, but maybe it all just boils down to watch time.

But I feel like it's, it's 10 times harder to get, like, a live viewer than a video essay viewer. It's 10 times harder to get a video viewer than a shorts viewer. Maybe there's, maybe there's like a chain of exchange rates through these things. Yeah, but you can parlay it now on YouTube, which is why I said YouTube, because you can use YouTube shorts as the discoverability. mechanism for your long form. Which is a lot easier to get someone in the door

to then figure out what your content is to then create long form videos to now they're watching a 20 minute video and they're watching mid-rolls and a unskippable ad. And so I think YouTube has done such a masterful job of just like continuing to build the platform for an amazing place for creators. Yeah. What do you think about

this idea that like YouTube just seems to be coalescing around the old TV formats? Like Mr. Beast, it feels like he landed on like, oh, it's about a 22-minute video, which is like exactly how long, like an episode of The Simpsons is in a 30-minute time slot. And then there will be around eight minutes of ads because that's just the ad load that TV discovered. And some of those will be in the video

and some of those will be out of the video. But effectively, it just feels like humans landed on like, yeah, like half an hour slots. Yeah, I think a lot of it comes down to, yes, you can put multiple mid-roll ads within a 22-minute video. And so you can kind of just understand like how many mid-rolls you can fit in a 22-minute video. But TV watchtime on YouTube is now, I believe, 11% of watch time consumed on an actual, like, smart TV. And so YouTube also is feeding those videos into a system. And YouTubers have gotten smart.

A lot of them have syndicated their videos on other platforms, like an Amazon or a Tube, and in those formats, usually you have to deliver a video that's like 20 to 25 minutes in length. You can't distribute a ton of videos that are nine minutes onto Amazon or Tube or some of these other places. And so I think just creators have gotten smarter over the years of like playing to the, how do I get high ad sense and how do I syndicate my cons and other platforms. Yeah, there's like these one off our opportunities, I feel like that happened. Like for Snapchat was one for a while where the creator monetization program was really good. I don't know if it still exists in the same

lucrative way, but there was a moment where it's like, if you have a backlog on YouTube, just go put it on Snapchat because you're just making money. It still exists, but you have to make native content. So the the ones that do what, like David Dobert does really well on Snapchat, but he's making a hundred plus pieces of content a day. And then the programmatic ads are just like slated. Yeah, he's posting a hundred times a day. So it's like, I mean, there's a lot of creators that are doing this where it's just like spam posting your entire day. Okay. So you're essentially vlogging your entire day, but you're filming it in 10 to 15 second increments. And so people will just like continue to click and like watch the entire video and then Snapchat will insert ads. Okay. And that whole thing.

So that, and it's done well. I don't know if it's going to continue like that. I don't know if Snapchat will continue to be able to sell ads within that system, but it's worked for the biggest creators, at least the ones at the top. You have a prediction, there was sort of the era in which a podcaster could get paid $50 to $100 million to like go exclusive. That kind of happened. There was the same thing happened in live streaming. Do you ever expect, like I don't think both of those have like necessarily panned out.

that well for the platforms. Do you expect somebody to like try to run that playbook back again to like kickstart a new network or do you think it's been learned enough times that it's not necessarily? I don't know. It always kind of feels like someone has to continue to try to spend $100 million to create a competitor to Twitch or YouTube or TikTok. So I don't think it'll be the last time. I do think someone else will come to the system and put up money to do some of these things. Mixer probably won't be the last, like, competitor to Twitch that fails. I would imagine someone else is going to try and do it, and they're going to be able to raise a ton of money to try. But we've just seen time and time again that, like, even in the Twitch example, the community

on Twitch is hard to compete against. If your mixer, you could spend $100 million and still not even put a dent. And, like, Kik is trying this right now. They're probably the newest one, which is like owned by stake. And they've spent hundreds of millions of dollars on trying to figure out how to compete with Twitch, and they just really haven't been able to, like, really crack any of the live stream market share. Nvidia has not gotten into live streaming yet. That may happen. Microsoft, Google, Amazon, all these companies have plays in live streaming, but not

Nvidia. What's your point of view on creator payouts on different platforms? It feels like, obviously, you would love for platforms like Instagram to do ad-scale creator payouts. we've had a debate on the show whether X payouts are good and we ultimately got to a place where we think like creator payouts on X make the platform worse because the content is relatively easy to make

and if you just create this sort of like profit motive on the platform it just floods the platform with content that I wouldn't say the content is like better today than it was like five years ago pre-creator payouts whereas on YouTube making great videos is really hard and so you talked about it, like there's, if you can be in one of the top channels, you can make a great living doing it, and that has a very positive effect

and that more people can spend all their time, you know, creating content. But I'm curious what your view is. Yeah, I think on X, like, they reward shit posting. Like, in all the, like, Twitter meme accounts or X meme accounts, like, if you start getting likes and retweets, like, it just continues to go. And so, like, memes do really well or just shit posting does really well. On YouTube, it now, like, comes down to statistics. like you need a good click-through rate and a high retention or else that YouTube is not going to

recommend your videos. So it's really hard. Like it's impossible to ship posts on YouTube. You can like have a clickbait thumbnail. But if the video assets stinks. That was the craziest thing. Mr. Beast released that video is like here's his video to like 10 years in the future or something. And I think it flopped. Like I think it was only three minutes in length. Yeah, it was only three minutes in length. So it just wasn't in the meta. And even though it's like, it was this mind-blowing thing. And, you know, it's this moment. It's still just like the algorithm. them expects 20 minutes and a million dollars poured into the production. And so your face video, you're just like, hey, to the camera video, even though it's novel, just doesn't break through

in the same way. But if X is ever going to compete with YouTube, they have to monetize, right? Like, they have to sell ads. Sure. So I just, I don't know where they're kind of at in terms of like, do we need a video player? You guys obviously live stream on on X, but it seems like they have to get to a point where they're monetizing or they're allowing creators to monetize their content. Or I just don't see why anyone that actually puts quality, yeah, quality into their content or podcast or whatever would post it on X. Unless you're a podcast and you're already putting five ad reads in your video and ad senses and afterthought and then you want more scale and distribution by X and you're already monetizing the video. That I can see, but I just, I just don't think

if X really wants to compete with TikTok and Instagram and YouTube that they cannot monetize their content. Yeah. How early are you signing creators today? Because I mean, you guys have a lot of leverage from all the talent that you've worked with and just the track record. But at the same time, I'm sure that when somebody pops up and now they get shown to a ton of people really quickly, they can go from zero to millions of views in no time. I'm sure it's like a highly competitive dynamic where in a perfect world you like, well, I'd like to let this person like create content for another like at least a few months. but if I don't, somebody else is going to, like, jump in and sign this person,

and then, you know, maybe it'll be hard to kind of, like, you know, take over that relationship. Yeah, we're definitely never the first. I would say we're hopefully the last. Usually everyone that we sign already has had, like, a manager, an agent, or, like, someone in play. You know, I think we come in with a little bit different value prop of, you know, we've done it so many times and kind of have the blueprint for, like, how do you get a creator to scale, then how do you build businesses on top of them that have real enterprise value? So I would say we're a little later, and we don't really represent that many people.

So we're not like chasing, hey, what's hot and viral at the given moment? Although I pay attention to it, and my screen time is incredibly high. And I don't think that'll ever change. But I'm just like, I keep an eye on people. I think like, you know, we have this whole system internally where we just have thousands of creators and we'll just keep an eye on them. What are they doing? Are they?

It's hard to have like real longevity. And it's really hard to stay creative. over, like, years. And so I see a lot of creators, like, come and go into the system. They'll make a good video. They'll go viral. And it's really hard for them to back that up month over, month over month. Yeah, or they have, like, one bit that's hilarious for, like, and there's also, like,

creators, like, we, there's this guy on, on Instagram that we've been laughing at a lot lately. He makes these videos where, I don't even know, is, I forget the account name, which just goes to tell you, like, yeah, yeah, like, it's like, it's not a super value. account, but he has this one joke that we just think is absolutely hilarious. And, like, there's probably nowhere for it to go. Like, it's probably, like, he's getting, like, millions and millions of views with this one joke. And then eventually it'll fade or something like that. But, I mean, I think, yeah, not all views are created equally. Yeah, I mean, there's this creator that I really like to watch and he, like, eats lemons in public places.

So he'll be, like, on a plane and he'll, like, pull up. Have you seen this? Yeah, yeah. I don't know how he does it. He does onions. He does onions too. And now eggs. Like not a hard-boiled egg, like a full egg and he'll just chew it. But like that big. Tyler, get ready to eat eggs, buddy.

Yeah, have you guys ever tried to bite a lemon? It's hard to eat a whole lemon. Yeah, like he's like gagging. So that like, yes, I can't remember what his Instagram is called, which goes to the fact of like, I'm like doom scrolling. And I'm like, oh, I found this guy. He's hilarious. He eats lemons.

But I'm like, there's no real longevity here. Like, I don't know where this goes. Yeah, versus like a childman Harris who tells his whole story. He's like a beautiful storyteller. He's in the thumbnail and he tells you, oh, he brings you into his whole life. Yeah, way different. There's so many of those folks that actually do a great job. Do you think the nature of some of these live streamers is actually forcing them to create products and startups or like businesses earlier than maybe on YouTube? Because I feel like a lot of the Twitch streamers, like there's so much unpredictability because it's a live stream that they're not super advertised.

friendly? Yeah. I think a lot of them have figured out other ways to make money. And that can be like, apparel was the easiest one. Like I think a lot of them have Minecraft servers or Grand Theft Auto RP servers or now Roblox games. And so they've all figured out other ways to make money that's not so centered around Twitch, Prime Subs or YouTube AdSense.

And so I think like just in this like internet world, these like kids are in the crevices of the internet, they just like figure out how to make money. Like, if you're a Grand Theft Auto streamer, you probably have an RP server. You're probably monetizing that RP server. Things that you guys probably don't even think about. And they're like, oh, like, I know he streams on this, like, Grand Theft Auto game. Like, you wouldn't even think that, like, oh, people are paying to be in this server. And so things like that, like, these kids have figured out.

Like, even the first gamer that I represented had a really large Minecraft server. And it was like a PVP server in Java. It was pay to win. It was paid to win. It was paid to win. It was like not you look compliant. I don't know if Minecraft's going to care anymore. But, like, wasn't you-law compliant, and it just printed money.

Interesting. And, you know, he would use his YouTube channel as the catalyst to drive people into that. I had no idea. And that server was the real way that he would make money. Yeah, that's interesting. So. Do you have an internal philosophy on how you talk to creators through, like, where they should draw the line on their comfortable?

He's like pay to win Minecraft that feels like gambling adjacent, but at the same time, you know, like we talk to entrepreneurs all the time and they're like, yeah, my first, first way I made money was like doing some crazy stuff on Minecraft. And I'm like, is that really that bad? And then you look at some of the crazier stuff and it's like obviously like a rug pulling a coin on your audience is like the worst thing you can do. But how do you think about like the gray area in between coaching creators giving them like, are you just getting them with a ton of anecdotes? It's become so much harder. Like there's, I mean, you can now just, you can buy CS skins and now you're playing Counterstrike and you're like incentivizing kids to buy crates. There's just, we've kind of taken the line of like, if we understand that gambling exists

and daily fantasy football is fine. Some of our creators have steak deals that will live stream on kick. And so it's just like, where do you draw the line? Like I'm having a hard time with that right now because gambling is so widely accessible in so many different genres. including video games, which I think like even NCAA football, that's gambling. Like they have packets that you open within their game mode and you just like spin packs and try and get players.

So it's like every video game now has some type of gambling baked into it. And so it's hard for someone who like came into this industry that like didn't want to be in the gambling world. Every single video game, including like maybe a Roblox. Like there's like things that you can buy where it's more like pay to win. Esk. And so it's tough. I think that it's not something I wanted to get involved in, but now we sit so deeply in the internet and in gaming that it's just like become a part of every creator's business. Yeah. Yeah. It's fascinating. I mean, I played Counterstrike 1.3,

1.5, like before it got productized at all. And it's hard to think back because I was talking to one of our buddies Sagar and Jetty over at breaking points. And he was kind of chastising me for being pro video game, and I was talking about my experience with CounterStrike, but it was a very different game than it is now. And so, yeah, where you draw those lines? But it's still, like, it's a $5 billion economy. Just, just Counterstrike skins, weapons, skins, but knives. It's a $5 billion economy. And so that, to me, will just continue when, if GTA 6 ever comes out. You know, there's going to be a lot of people with RP servers, and there's going to be pay-to-win mechanisms. There's going to be rank mechanisms that kids are paying for. So I don't know.

that's like a big that's a tough one for me yeah i wonder if uh yeah i wonder i wonder where this will actually meet like where the rubber will meet the road because you could imagine some level of uh regulation around um you know can you target a something that is gambling legally to kids like maybe that you know if there's this type of advertisement in it it goes over into this pool of the algorithm that's maybe 18 plus um i'm not sure it'll it'll it's obviously something that, like, America is publicly discussing right now. Yeah. But, uh, it's tricky.

Have you, are you guys using Sora at all? Sora? Yeah. Uh, no, not really. Okay. Not, not on it. Like, don't, no, I'm on it. I, I, I, made my cameo, like, available.

Anyone can do one with me. You do, okay. So people can make videos. Yeah. Yeah, I was like, yeah, only, only absolutely jack. Oh, yeah. I put, I put in, always depict me as a bodybuilder, so it's really funny. Is there a lot of videos on Sora?

Like, are people actually doing it? Not, my community has not. certainly not moved over and the retention on the, I think on both the viewing, certainly on the scrolling. We've been polling everyone in the studio, hey, what's your screen time on SORA this week? What's your screen time on SOR? Because we want to know, are people actually getting into this as like a consumption tool? Is there any hope for SORA? We haven't seen any of that. Now, I do see occasionally there'll be a new, clearly a SORA video that's been integrated into vertical short form in one way or another. I found a funny guy who makes like tech comedy.

And at the end, he puts a little SORA clip just to kind of, like, add a little spice on top. And it's funny, but I haven't seen a lot of stuff that's been, like, really breaking out. I mean, at the, at the current moment, I don't, if you just, like, based it on momentum, it feels like it's lost. It does feel like it's falling off. But, I mean, there's hilarious videos on there. Pull this, pull this video up. So you can watch it. Is he fully jacked?

Did somebody make one of me? Are you laughed? Yeah. Can you guys pull it up? I'm going to, I'm going to, I'm going to go home and I'm going to have, like, a Discord server just make thousands of videos of you and just flood the SORA system. I love it. And it'll just be your videos all over the place. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I don't know. It might be like an uncanny valley thing. We do use V-O-3 a decent amount for like pre-vis on like, hey, we want to shoot this

video. What if it looked like this? Let me get some ideas for like lighting and tone so I can send it to somebody. This is what we think we're doing. But we always shoot everything normally. And we have it. We actually have a benchmark where we have something that we shot manually. Like, we shot the normal way, and then we try and recreate it in all the video, the AI video systems. And it's remarkable how hard it is, even when you have a perfect idea. All right. We got it. Turn around.

Oh, you are. Why am I walking a pig? And the caption is what too many ramp ad reads does to an MF? They figured out to make my legs small. They hacked me. They hacked me. Aren't those your real legs? Those are not my real legs.

Real arms and real legs. What is the nature of the pig? Why do I have a pig? This is hilarious. It does look like me in the face. The gym shark. Jim shark? Yeah, you got a Jim shark C.

Jim shark stringer. Oh, wow. I don't know. It feels like it's lost a lot of its momentum. I'm not convinced like people are going to go on there and watch content. So my core thesis for most of the AI generation apps like Mid Journey, SORA, are that they are more like video games than consumption mechanisms. And so you go on there and you have an idea and you are trying to express it.

And once you get it to generate it, you watch it and you watch it just for you. And then you're like, yeah, awesome. And maybe you said it's like one other person. But you really aren't, it really isn't just sit there and just a random person makes something and I enjoy it. It's more of the experience of like, can I get it to generate the thing that I have in my mind, whether that's Suno or Mid Journey. Somebody described Mid Journey as like art therapy.

People like going on Mid Journey and just whatever they dreamt of last night, they'll prompt. And the images, they look just like any other Mid Journey images. They have no value to you, but to the person that generated them, they enjoy it. And so they pay for the content that they produce themselves. Yeah. How do you think there's a dynamic in the future? I think we're pretty far away from this point, from just model progress standpoint. But right now, YouTube doesn't make any videos themselves.

Why are you smiling? I just need to go edit my SOAR prompt to say, never depict me with skinny, small light. No, I'm taking advantage of that SOAR later. You're going to see all kinds of videos. No, but so right now, any video that YouTube surfaces, let's say, is they're paying out like a fixed, basically, revenue share on that. And there's a world in the future where YouTube knows exactly the kind of video that someone liked.

So, like, at night, I watch, like, documentary style. videos, right? So it's like, okay, Jordi likes World War II, like, voice over documentary style videos. We could just serve, we could serve them a video of an existing creator, or we could just serve Jordi a video, same topic, but we created it ourselves, so there's like some cost to like generate the asset and serve it, but theoretically a lot less. Like, do you, like, I think that that scenario creators are going to be creators that are worried about AI today are not worried about the right thing necessarily. They're worried about like, I don't know. But I think that's like a very real possibility. They're overestimating how much they can get destroyed in a year and

underestimating how much they can get destroyed in a decade. Do you, but does YouTube who has been predominantly very creator first pivot to that where they're now like making content through regenerative AI that is ripping off, let's say, a documentary storyteller or true crime. Like, did it just feels like if they start to take that path. They would, they would do that if the number, if like watch time continue to go up. Like that, like, they're, they're a massive public company. They have an incentive to like increase profits. Yeah. So I'm just saying, like, it sounds great in theory that they're like, okay, they're very greater aligned and they made a bunch of good decisions to date.

I mean, just think about that SORA that we just watched, like, that was generated by someone who prompted it, someone with a sense of humor, obviously. It doesn't seem that crazy to me to actually figure out how to parcel out the ad dollars. Like, if that video generates $100 of ad revenue because people watched it, and then they immediately watched an ad before or after or whatever, and it's attributable, you could give me a slice because of my likeness. You could give the prompter a slice. You could give Jim Shark a slice since their logos in there.

You could give whoever created the music. Jim Shark should pay for that. Yeah. And so if we have AI that's good enough at generating that, we should also have AI that's good enough to say hey, this is a mashup between these two artists. Let's split the revenue share 50-50. YouTube already does this. If you

put one song in, it'll route the I actually made a video about Mr. Beast once. I used some footage and it got routed to his team. Probably you got the check. Yeah, sorry about that. No, sorry. You're never seeing that place.

It's gone. It was, yeah. You know, so there's like fair use discussions, but in general, it's pretty easy for a system to understand, okay, this is a combination of this footage from here, this music from there, that IP over here. They took Donald Duck off the shelf over there, some Mickey Mouse, some Batman, some Spider-Man, and they're all from different IP owners, but let's just flow all the money through. And then, yes, if you're coming out with something completely new, then you're coming out with something completely new, then you're You don't need to pay as much, and maybe you minimize that. But this all just feels like it'll happen just over decades. So I don't know.

Yeah. I mean, music's kind of figured this out where you've writers, producers, like there's so many different people on a track. Yeah. Oh, you sampled this. That gets divvied out to. So I could see that happening in the future. I hope we don't live in a world where YouTube is understanding, like,

psychologically what type of videos I watch at 9 p.m. And so they're feeding me generative AI videos that, like, is taking away from a human. but like maybe that is a world that we live in 10 years from now. And that's who you're competing against. You're ultimately competing against the system of YouTube who is making amazing videos and their incentive is to own 100% of that. A lot of the AI investment thesis is around labor displacement, which is like we have to, you know,

these companies are like we have to invest in AI because like future spend in the economy, instead of going to labor, we'll go to these data centers effectively. Yeah. I do wonder about YouTube's positioning with creating, because that sort of, what do you describe, 9 p.m. serve you, generative imagery. But that, to be clear, is like a very specific type of content that where I don't feel

the creator matters as much, right? If it's like, sure. Yeah, but what, but what if it's like sports news or just news in general? Yeah. I would, I would imagine you could pull, they could pull that in real time and be talking about what's going on. What I mean is like, that's already happening because there's going to be a company out there that says let's use every available AI tool. Let's be the AI native, you know, beast enterprises. And let's have no one in front of the camera and spend $0 on cameras and spend a lot of money on SORA credits and V-O-3 credits. And let's start producing as much as possible.

And let's use YouTube as our distribution pathway. And maybe YouTube takes a stance. I don't know that they would. I think that those creators who are puppeteering all the AI slop will probably stick around enough. But I don't know. There might be a reckoning to the degree where YouTube says, hey, we're detecting AI and we're putting in a different tab

or we're not allowing it on the platform. But I would be shocked if they do that. I'd be very shocked because you could use it. Because there are so many creative ways to use AI. Like we just watched that. It was genuinely funny because we had context. It was not just like, you know, trying to take a dime out of someone's pocket. Yeah, I think it'll start with thumbnails.

Like that'll be, you know, you'll get an AI generated, thumbnail as soon as you upload your video. It'll watch your video and explain like what it thinks the thumbnail should be. And then title, maybe titles is first, thumbnails is second. Where it goes from there, I'm a little unsure. But you guys need Neil Malbone on the show. For sure. Ask them this directly. Yeah, yeah. Yeah. I mean, the title thing is like, I've, I've titled hundreds of YouTube videos. I hated doing that every single time. And so, and I never got to the scale where I had like, oh, yes, like, I have a title person who's like amazing on my staff and like I would be displacing their job if I had a if I had a tool for this.

Well, it may be test it now. So there's title AB testing, thumbnail AB testing. Eventually it probably just prompts you what they think you should title it and then it'll be tested on its own and figure out where it lands. Yeah. Yeah, that makes sense. Anything else, Jerry? Lots more on my mind, but can do it again soon. Yeah, thank you guys. Yeah. Super fun. Awesome. Thanks so much for coming back. Thanks, yes. We'll close out the show and we will talk to you in just a minute. We'll wear yellow. Next time. Yellow suit. Thank you so much. We have to tell you about Wander. Find your happy place. Book of Wander with inspiring views. Hotel grade amenities, dreamy beds. Top tier cleaning, 24-7 concierge service. It's a vacation home but better. Delian has a post here. He says, just read this in an investor update. This is bad news for Tyler. He said older engineers who graduated from college pre-GPT are actually best suited for our purposes. They have fundamental programming ability that's lost amongst most. Most of the current generation, the AI-induced thinking slash skills decay has begun.

Wild. What do you have to say? Are you low background radiation steel, pre-war steel, or are you post-war steel? Once we get the next model, we just need the next model. Then you'll be good. Then you'll be able to prompt, explain to me what you did when you built the thing. It is funny. I don't know.

I think that it certainly depends. on, I mean, there's obviously people that use, you know, GPT coding tools and it accelerates their learning. There's probably a lot of people who are effectively cheating at learning anything and do not accelerate. But I don't know. I wonder if this phenomenon will be sticky. I wonder what the durable, we're still so early in understanding the durable trends that come out of the AI era and how it changes people.

I don't know. Kevin O'Leary is neck deep in data centers right now. I love that. What a quote. That's hilarious. So what is this a treaty post? I am starting to be a real believer in AI will be a megatrend like no one like no one is really imagining right now. I'm sure lots of rates and drops along the way though. Shit posting. Oh well. And Bill Ackman of course said may I meet you is his preferred pickup line. What a time. That's why I, of course, why I ask you, may I podcast with you? Can I podcast with you? In other news, Dario from Anthropic went on 60 minutes and gave a number of interesting answers. The one thing that stuck out to me, and I'd love to know if anything else stuck out to the rest of you, but previously, the quote that came out of Anthropic was half of all white collar work obsolete by some timeline, five or ten years.

and the twist, the thing that stuck out in my mind was it was half of all entry-level white-collar work being automated by AI, which felt like a step back in terms of like A-A-G-I-ness. What do you think, to me? Yeah, I mean, I feel like we have to look at the exact original quote, because this is one to five years. Okay.

This is next year. Yeah. Half of all white color. He's so bullish. I love him. He's so bullish. But yes. I don't know.

I mean, yeah, it is, it's an interesting quote to match with that, that Delian post about what's going on with the younger, the current generation programming ability, the AI-induced thinking skill decay that's begun. Maybe you don't need the skills because, you know, AGI is coming. Why build skills when you can just say, do it for me? Don't make mistakes. Yes, half of all, AI could wipe out. half of all entry-level white-collar jobs and spike unemployment.

Let's play this clip. Let's play this clip from Anderson Cooper. Spike unemployment to 10 to 20% in the next one to five years. Yes. That's shocking. That is the future we could see if we don't become aware of this problem now. Half of all entry-level white-collar jobs. Well, if we look at entry-level consultants, lawyers, financial professionals,

You know, many of kind of the white-collar service industries, a lot of what they do, you know, AI models are already quite good at, and without intervention. It's hard to imagine that there won't be some significant job impact there. And my worry is that it'll be broad and it'll be faster than what we've seen with previous technology. It's such a funny thing to say because it's like you're the one doing it. I still don't get that.

It's like, and that's why I get up every day. Like, what is his proposal? Does he actually have a proposal? Is it UBI or something? I think the other. What is his proposal here is actually even better? He says, I'm deeply uncomfortable with these decisions being made by a few companies, by a few people.

Says Dario Mote, CEO and co-founder of AI company Anthropic. It's Lee. He's talking about himself. It's me. It's me, Dario. Oh, well. He has to bring peace and safety. Peace.

and saves me. That is wild. Okay, let's read this post from Dwar Cash to close out. He says, people with short timelines sometimes shrug off models, inability to perform basic economically useful tasks end to end by saying,

oh, but we haven't trained models to specifically do those things. But this misses the point. Human workers are valuable precisely because we don't need to build bespoke, schleppy training loops for every small part of their job. Every day, you have to do

a hundred things that require judgment, situational awareness, situational awareness, and skills and context learned on the job. These tasks differ not just across different people, but from one day to the next, even for the same person. It's not possible to automate even a single job by just baking in some predefined set of skills, let alone all the jobs. People will sometimes debate how much progress have we made so far between village idiot and AGI, and I'm just thinking, What the F are you guys talking about? The models are currently so much dumber than the village idiot.

Village idiots generally generate trillions of dollars in wages a year. Taking shots of the village idiot. These models generate $30 billion in revenue a year. That's a good take. That's very funny. Who's the real village idiots are underrated? Who's the real village idiot?

Is the AI models? In fact, I think people are really underestimating how big a deal actual AGI will be. because they're just imagining more of this current regime. They're not thinking about billions of human-like intelligences on a server which can copy and merge all their learnings. And to be clear, I expect this, aka actual AGII, in the next decade or two, that's crazy.

I completely agree. It is crazy. I've been recent. What else is in here? Another post here, Mustafa over CEO of Microsoft AI, says, already our Fairwater Data Center in Atlanta, has taken over 15 million labor hours to build. Even more once it's fully finished.

For comparison, the Empire State Building took 7 million. And Elon comes in ratios him and says, Are you sure you're doing it right? Oh, it's so ridiculous. Okay. Let's do a lightning round for just another pod guy who I invited on the show a while ago. He's worried about exposing himself. but he says themes for 2026 in no particular order.

AI trade intensifies. Panikins gets steamrolled. Believe it. Humanoid robot production ramp. I guess we're seeing that with U.B. Tech. Robotaxi accelerated rollout. Starlink capacity ramp with Kupier fast follow. SMR nuclear, DREG, and pilots. Federal warp speed for the U.S. electrical grid and pharma APIs.

drone U.S. manufacturing ramp, enterprise software spend shifts towards AI at cost to traditional SaaS. He's a SaaS bear. AI models go true multimodal and crank engagement levers. Grand bargain with higher ed to restructure system in exchange for student loan forgiveness. Federal housing program that attempts to free up supply, which likely fails as soon as home prices drop by 2% and boomers riot. GLP1 adoption and second order impacts accelerate with recent price drops. for drug discovery becomes a hot topic and naysayers will rush to downplay but will look stupid before the year is out. This is so crazy. There's so many predictions in here. People forget

about quantum. Panikins realized that autolone DQs were a non-event driven by illegals defaulting. Panikins pivot to attempting to quantify systemic risk like blah, blah, blah, blah, it keeps going. It gets steadily wilder and wilder, but we'll check back on this next year. We did a couple from China. Very funny. Anyway, I think that's good for today. Martin Screlli also has some data on institutional trading of

private market stocks. The team's laughing because we just keep going. Just one more post. I want these in it. I'm laughing at how many times you said one more post. To close it out, you've got to update the ramp figure in his data because ramp raised an upround. Let's go. Well, thank you for watching. Thank you for listening.

What did you got to? Wait, one last thing. Okay. It's official. He wrote the famous book. Okay. Wait, he wrote the famous book. Okay. Wait, his book, great stagnation. That's what we're called? Oh, I... That's Tyler Cowen. Yeah, I didn't realize that he wrote a book on the great stagnation. I will have to... Yeah, the great stagnation from 2011. Very cool. Well, it's over. It's been officially declared over. Yeah. I'm excited. Let's dig into that tomorrow. Let's figure out what metrics he's using, what his GDP assumptions are. I want to know more about that piece, but I want to read it before we get on air. Thank you for tuning in. Great show today. Have a good evening. We'll see you

tomorrow. Goodbye.