TBPN Live - Cloudflare Outage, iMessages in Gemini 3, 𝕏 Reactions to Gemini 3 | Diet TBPN

Episode Date: November 19, 2025

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What's your take? My take is, do you want iMessage in Gemini 3? Do you want iMessage in your AI assistant, in your personal superintelligence? After MetaConnect, we left saying, wow, the virtual reality, the Call of Duty heads-up display is here. It's arrived. The meta-rayband display. And the technology was really cool.

The glasses didn't look that crazy. The actual HUD was really high quality. Like you could actually read what was going on there. But where we left it was, wow, if it doesn't work with iMessage, I can't imagine wearing that because my whole life is iMessage and and I and I was just kind of reflecting on this idea that like iMessage has kind of emerged as my personal ERP system remember when BCs used to be like oh we need a personal CRM and it was like you're you've just turned every one of your personal relationships into a business relationship and now you should be using

an actual CRM I'm getting I'm getting the blood flowing this morning I'm glad I'm enjoying some movement Personal CRMs never took off, and I noticed that, like, IMessages kind of become, like, my personal data lake, my personal ERP system. Like, it's my single pane of glass. Like, if it's the, it's the source of truth. Yeah. It's like the system of record for my personal life. And also, we use it for business and stuff. I message has really, really grown to the point where it's not just, like, one-on-one text messages, it's all these group chats.

It's sharing of locations and documents, all this stuff, files that were shared, you know, PDF that was shared over a year ago. Totally. Totally. And so my question is like, it seems like iMessage is important for the heads-up displays, for the smart glasses. Will it be important for Gemini? We were debating this. In general, I think that all the Apple intelligence features will get better with Gemini 3. We saw on the benchmarks. We demoed the product. Gemini 3 is definitely a great model, the best model potentially right now. Apple will be able to implement that all over the place. And they just won't have to worry about, like, do we have a good foundation? model to build on. But what does the actual flowback look like? Because Google and Apple are famously like walled gardens. Like you can't really just interface with them. Some of the best walled gardens of all time. Some of the best walled gardens of all time. The average consumer will just see Apple intelligence and they'll really just see Siri. I think people won't necessarily expect that if they're interfacing with Gemini over in Gemini world in the Gemini app or in Gmail, they won't expect it to connect to their iMessage, even though it's the same

model that's powering both of those, and Apple will say that that's for privacy reasons, and consumers won't know to ask, but I'm kind of curious about that because that would be an interesting feature, and I don't know if you would even want that. Would you want to be able to go to the Gemini app and have it be able to pull a file that was shared with you in an iMessage group chat? I feel like my entire... or life runs an iMessage, and it doesn't feel like Apple is super motivated, like, actually building for power users. And so if there was a way to get more value, having that data within Gemini, right?

Like, hey, draft me text message responses to people that I've texted, you know, more than, more than one day that I haven't responded to in the last two weeks and have to draft a bunch of messages that I can then just go through and, uh, at least look over and respond to. Yeah. But I don't know. I have zero faith that there will be any portability. And the reason for that is Apple's paying Google

to white label. To effectively, yeah, white label the model, leverage Gemini in the next version of Apple Intelligence. And they're just going to be focused on integrating it within their ecosystem deeply. And I think if they weren't paying for it, Google would have been able to negotiate for quite a lot more. does feel very different than Google search because the models are actually intelligent.

I'm imagining more of like when I when I go to an LLM to prompt it for a gift guide, if it has access passively to iMessage, it can understand oh like people have been sharing these links with you to things that could be gift. Here's the context around the context. Maybe they shared that link with you being like, lull, I would never buy this someone for Christmas or they could have been from a family member saying, you know, this has been, like, I would write to Santa for this, and they're, like, alluding to you actually wanting to buy them for that. Tyler, what do you think? I think, like, when I think of, like, AI in, like, communications generally, I think it's more, like, the vision is, like, let's say I'm trying to set up a meeting with Jordi. It's

like, I have an agent. My agent talks to Jordi's agent. They sort everything out, if we should meet, when we should meet, where we should meet. And then it's kind of, like, done completely separately from like iMessage even yeah so i think that's more of like my kind of ideal vision of like what lLMs and messaging like look like i'm not even doing actual messaging like the reality of everyone's life is that they use multiple messaging systems they use email and WhatsApp and signal and then iMessage and twitter dms and there's never been a successful unification of these but i was laughing to myself thinking about like a humanoid robot because like a humanoid robot you could literally just be like, here's the phone, here's the passcode, go respond to every message on my phone.

It could do that and it would be impossible to like, there's no like data wall that you can put up at that point, really. Gemini 3 Pro is the first L.M to beat professional human players at Geogessor. Wow. This is this is one of those things that I think is actually still going to be wildly entertaining even when, even when they like chess, right? Like watching him figure out where something is down to a single thing. street is still going to be impressive and probably entertaining also I mean it's this feels like it has to be like overfit on geogessing because like didn't Google create all the geogessers like data source yeah it's all just Google Maps it's Google Maps and like it has to be in the training data

like perfectly so like the beauty of watching someone play Geogessor is that they're they're not just doing memorization they're not just like oh I know that street I know every street because I've memorized every street there they're actually applying a whole bunch of heuristics and and matching with. GPD 5 release. Yeah. People would like submit just a picture they took like on their phone.

Yeah. It's like, where am I? So that's not like actual, I mean that's not from Google. Yeah, it's not overfaring. And it would still do like really well. Okay, yeah, yeah. How would you benchmark the, uh, the three pro versus GPT5? Because it seems like three pro is not equivalent to, to five pro.

Five pro is more like deep think. Yeah, if you're looking at like price and like the, How long it takes to gender and output? Got it. So three pro is like five instant? Or is it like five thinking? It's five thinking. And then three flash, if that comes out.

That will be instant. Yeah, like 2.5 light or flash or there's flash light. Yeah, okay. That's more of the instant model. Yesterday, Google announced Google anti-gravity, their new agentic development platform. Which IDE did they use to build anti-gravity? windsurf or cursor and silas over at cognition said so google just forked the windsurf code base

and they even forgot to remove the cascade branding in some places cascade uh is an is a is a part of uh of windsurf's product which is obviously now by cognition this is funny that they kind of miss this and i think it's fair for the cognition team to dunk on it they of course google did buy you know spend uh however many billions on on acquiring the the WinServe IP, so not super surprising. This is the big story here. Google trained Gemini 3 Pro on Google's own TPUs, no mention of Nvidia chips. This is pretty crazy.

I mean, they've been doing this for a while, but Nvidia's announcing earnings today. Best model ever created from a benchmark standpoint. Didn't use Nvidia chips, which are supposed to be a monopoly. This doesn't feel fully priced in yet to either company. But then again, right, it's so hard to predict demand over the next five, ten years that maybe it doesn't even matter. If TPUs are not for sale, Nvidia does have a monopoly. If Nvidia truly is the only seller in the market because Google is not a seller, then yes, they still extract monopoly power from every other buyer. Because every other buyer says, yeah, I'd love to buy TPUs, but I can't.

So you're the only game in town still. But it's a very weird dynamic where you do have two very clearly performant products that are not. that are not actually driving down cost. It must be very frustrated. It's extremely Google that a flagship consumer product is named as a reference to inner org drama that happened three years ago? The Zodiac Gemini refers to Twins, Google's Gemini, is a reference to two formerly distinct labs,

Google, Brain, and Deep Mind that were merged into one lab, Google Deep Mind. There we go. Yeah, and I guess the interorg drama that happened three years ago was just this idea of, you know, deep mind was acquired in, but Google Brain was still running. Isn't this a reference to Gemini as in the constellation of the Gemini twins referring to the consolidation of twin organizations? I like that. That's actually a pretty good name. World models are the thing I'm spending most of my research time on.

I'd love more TPUs. You look at seed rounds with just nothing being tens of billions of dollars. It's not quite logical to me. Taking shots. Shots fired. Do we have the gun? No, we remove that. Oh, we removed it.

Just a note on TPUs. Alex says when you talk about the constraints, Google has more computing access with TPUs than most companies. I would think that Google could just go all in on your team's work, but Google also gives TPU access to other startups and even rival AI Labs. Do you ever just go give me all the TPUs?

And Demas says, I love more, but there are business requirements to balance. There's short-term and long-term revenue and all of these things need to be balanced and smoothed out. It's a huge advantage. We have TPUs in our own stack, and we co-designed the TPUs with the TPU team based on where we know we're going software-wise. But yeah, there isn't enough compute in the world, as we all know, for everything that we want to do.

They're always competing things. And then there's the question of what is the return on that amount of compute. It can be a research return, a new product, investigation return, or direct revenue. Jeannie is still in the exploratory phase in terms of what we may eventually do with it. Quarter app has dropped an announcement that the NVIDIA earnings call will be tonight at 5 p.m. Eastern time. All eyes on Wong. if you can. I guess somebody ran this graphic

through mid-jurney and it's crazy. So bad by comparison. I mean, it still goes pretty hard. Yeah. Invitea and jobs data coming. Reports will provide key signals for investors after a market pullback.

The fog masking the direction of the American economy and future of the artificial intelligence boom is starting to lift after mounting scrutiny of stratospheric tech investments as well as a blackout of federal data during the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, Wall Street awaits two reports that stand to

reshape its outlook for the months ahead. AI poster child, NVIDIA, is due to report earnings after the closing bell Wednesday, offering a snapshot of demand for chips that are in, that are a linchpin in the tech mania that has lifted markets and helped buoy the economy. Also, with the NVIDIA news, it's like, how much can you actually read into AI demand based on NVIDIA earnings? Because I feel like we're projecting out like these deals five years in advance, we buy the chips, then we install them, like that whole rumored deceleration in ChachyPT growth. If that is real and that's happening and ChachyPT usage is starting to plateau from 800 million weekly to, hey, next year it's going to be like 900 million, a billion. Like it's not going to be five billion next year. Are we

expecting that to show up in the Nvidia data this quarter? Like probably not, right? Because like OpenAI has projected out five years of demand for GPUs. So I don't know. It seems hard to actually read into NVIDIA's earnings as a real snapshot of demand. The reason there's fixation NVIDIA is currently, it's like 8% of the S&P 500. That's crazy. So like it just it matters more than any other. This feels like the most important earnings call of the year.

In related news, it got announced this morning, Musk's XAI and NVIDIA to develop a data center in Saudi Arabia. It's a 500 megawatt data center in Saudi. XAI is working with NVIDIA and a Saudi Arabian partner to develop a data center in the kingdom. Musk said Wednesday at an event with the Crown Prince. They're teaming up with Saudi Arabia's AI company Humane. This can be 500 megawatts or enough electricity to power several hundred thousand homes for a year. Do we expect XAI to be operating and competing as like an AI cloud? Or is this going to be something that they want to have a local version of GROC? To me, it seems much more

likely that they just want to be in the data center business. Yeah. Oh, yeah, that's a very interesting. And to me, that's always made sense because Elon is clearly better. It's fantastic at that. Pretty much best in the world. I mean, clearly very good at like large scale, physical infrastructure, build-outs, getting access to energy, doing things on a ridiculous time horizon. And so in order to support XAI's valuation, I could see them trying to get into that game. If there is strong U.S. inference demand, but latency is not an issue. It might be valuable to actually just co-locate the data center next to the oil. So because maybe the energy is cheaper.

Eliminate poverty. Eliminate poverty. And Tesla won't be the only one that makes them. I think Tesla will pioneer this. But AI and humanoid robots will actually eliminate poverty. And Tesla won't be the only one that makes them. I think Tesla will pioneer this, but there will be many other companies that make humanoid robots. But there is only basically one way to make everyone wealthy, and that is AI and robotics.

What do you think? All problems in the world solved by one product. I love it. I mean, it's not the craziest take. This is, you know, we joke about land a lot. We joke about it being the most undervalued asset by the current generation of investors. But land is the one thing that even with an army of humanoids, like you can't as easily, like, copy and paste. It's not like land on the blockchain where people are like, no, like, you can buy this plot of land on the blockchain and that's yours forever.

And somebody's like, what if I just make another blockchain? Exactly. And I can also get from this piece of land, I can get from this piece of land on this blockchain or this other piece of land on this blockchain. in a second. Yeah. It's ridiculous. If you have enough humanoid robots though, then land is actually not that hard to get. Can we tell the story of us risking our lives yesterday?

We really should. Yeah, this was truly incredible stuff. So we're looking, we're in the Ultradome here for at least another year, but we're starting to think about our second, the next Ultradome, we want to get slightly more space. There's a number of different things that we want. So we found a space that we love. It's dome-like. We're looking for a space in LA that is fit for the ultradome.

There's not a lot of things that qualify. And so we had looked at the space a couple times. I had seen it with Ben. John and I drove by it, and then we went back to look, do another walkthrough. And we were getting like, I'm like extremely You were pitching me. I'm pitching John on here's where this thing goes.

Here's where this goes. You made us on the way to the show in the morning, you make me poke my. head through the window. Then we go back at the keys, we go in. Really selling John on it. It's a beautiful, beautiful space. It's like a few minutes from where we are now.

It made a lot of sense. Ethan says R2D2 was the original digital guy. Digital guy is incredible for sure. Sorry, anyway. So anyways, we go for the third time to this space. And I'm just selling John on every inch of the space. Like, this is what we're going to do here. This is what we're going to do here.

Here's where the trust is going to go. Here's where the production team is going to go. And we're just walking around, kind of getting a feel for it. And we're basically wrapped up. Like, we're super excited about it. Not necessarily ready to make an offer on it. But certainly, like, we're like, okay, this is by far the best option that we've found. We've looked at a bunch of spaces.

It checks a bunch of the boxes. Checks a lot of boxes. And right as we're about to leave, John looks over and there's like a closet door with a key in it and you just like walk over i just watch you walk over and like open it up and you start looking looking around and first i make the joke i'm like oh this is like the intern closet because it's like this really long narrow like hallway thing that's just like it's it's like the worst room you can imagine and and so the idea of putting tyler in it was was uh was at least entertaining uh and then we're like wait what's that humming sound and there's like this box that's

like covered up and it's just like this like not super loud but just like constant humming sound and we asked the the broker, we say... It was super weird because it was drywall. Like, you walk into this, to this big room, it's a big room, and then within that big room is a massive drywalled box. With no entrance. No entrance to the box, but it's drywalled.

Like, you don't usually see drywall inside of a room that doesn't go all the way to the ceiling. And so it was very clear, behind this dry wall, they were hiding something, basically. And there's no, there's no purpose to the room. Yeah, other than it just stores the box. It stores the box. That has no entrance.

And it's humming. Yes. And we look around and John's like, what's in the box? And the real estate. The broker says, the broker says, oh, that's just the machine that cleans the soil. And we were, no, no, no, she said, that's just the machine. That's just the machine. And we're like, oh, like, what kind of machine is in there?

And she's like, don't worry about it. She's like, don't worry about it. It's not a big deal. Yeah, just like, you know, buildings have machines sometimes. There's a machine in there. And it's always on, but you don't. It's, it, we took that out of the square footage. Yeah, oh, yeah, that was a wild one.

We're not billing, we wouldn't bill you for it. And so we were like, okay. What type of machine is it? And then she goes, it's a machine that cleans the soil. And we're like, is this on like some sort of haunted burial ground or something? Like, what are we doing down there? This is a hazardous waste site. And she goes, again, really not a big deal.

I would worry about it if you were going to buy the place. But since you're just planning to lease, don't worry about it. And then we were like, okay, like, the more you tell me not to worry. about it. Like, I kind of want to know more. So what's it cleaning up? And she's like, oh, I mean, there's, it's 85% of the way clean. We're like, what's, what's getting clean? When did this process start? How long will that go? Has it been going for a hundred years? And we're like, will the box, will the machine start an hour ago and it's just going to be 15 more minutes? Like, you gave us no context to actually project out what 85% of the way it means. And, and finally,

She's like, there was a laundromat here ago. And we start piecing it together. And we kind of like don't want to press her on it too much. So we leave and start doing some Googling. We figure out that it's not a super fun site. But apparently there was a laundromat there that was using toxic chemicals that No, it's a machine shop.

Oh, a machine shop. Oh, that's what we figured out. So they said laundromat. And apparently laundromats can give off toxic chemicals that if they get in the ground can be very cancerous for a very long time. This was apparently a machine shop like almost 100 years ago or something. And they're working on cleaning the soil.

But I still don't even understand how you clean all of the soil under an massive building without causing a collapse. Is it like a whole bunch of tunnels that are digging around under there? It's a bunch of R2D2 robots. Maybe it's a bunch of R2D2s, honestly. So anyways. It was very, very bizarre. It was one of the funniest, like, just surprise like jump scares ever. Whoa, I had no idea that AI uses 5,329,500.

184 water per year. That's insane. Like it uses just one water. Yeah, people are all over the place at the water thing. No one is debating that it uses a lot of energy. Like, we're actively burning natural gas for a lot of this AI stuff. Like, like, all of the old school don't, don't cause global warming by burning fossil fuels. Like, all of those, all of those, like, claims apply to AI today. Like, you could just make those claims. But instead, everyone seems to have been, like, caught up in this water. Oh, the water usage is so bad. It's because water feels more scarce to people than electricity. Maybe. It's like, if I can't drink water, I die. But if I can't access natural gas, like, I can still live, maybe. This is the single most massive factual air in a major book I've ever personally noticed on my own.

And I think I'm the first person to notice it. Empire of AI asserts that a data center is using 1,000 times as much water as a city. In reality, it's 22% of the city's water. In other words, the data center could use more than 1,000 times the amount of water consumed by the entire population of Surilos, that Chilean city, roughly 80,000 residents over the course of a year. How it justifies this number in the notes saying, in other words, the data. The Google Environmental Impact Report to SEA stated that the data center could use 169 liters of potable water a second or 5 million. Oh, it's right there. That's the same number five million leaders a year according to the water service authority in

Cyrillus the municipality consumed five million leaders in all of 2019 the Google the year Google sought to come in five billion liters a year divided by five million liters equals one thousand something isn't adding up here it doesn't make sense that you could use 1,000 times the amount of water used by that city Andy Masley has successfully put this book, Empire of AI, in the Truth Zone. And we thank him for his service. I'll come out of Twitter retirement for this one.

Picnic at Work, LFG. Great job with Picnic. Picnic is delivering lunch directly to your office floor with no fees and no tips. Every day from 50 plus restaurants. We got to look at the benchmarks. What's the max amount of protein? Is it over 200? Are they protein maxing?

Or is it over 200? Because we saw a major, major jump in, in the amount of protein in a bowl. with Sweet Green. Sweet Green's at 108 now. This is the most important benchmark in the bowl economy, which I'm a huge fan of. But are we seeing acceleration? Are we seeing a fast takeoff in the amount of protein? I want to be seeing 200 grams of protein, then 1,000, then 10,000, then 100,000. It should be 10xing every year, just 10x that. Yes, exactly. Everyone's always talking about fast takeout, but we need to be talking about a fast takeoff. Fast casual takeoff. Brookfield today announced the launch of a 100 billion-dollar global AI infrastructure program in partnership with

NVIDIA and the Kuwait Investment Authority. There are tons of press releases going out every single day. Daniel Tenryo says, running a business is all about partnerships. Cloudflare unfortunately had an outage yesterday. We were not affected. An outage that knocked swaths of the internet offline was resolved Tuesday after drowning social media sites,

disrupting retail sales, and stalling transportation network. transportation networks. Users visiting sites including X, ChatGPT, DoorDash, Ikea, Metropolitan Transport Authority in New York City were met with error messages related to Cloudflare, a cloud provider used by major companies for security tools that protect from cyber attacks and traffic surges. The spokeswoman from Cloudflare said an unusual rise in traffic to one of its services at around 6.20 a.m. Eastern time caused traffic passing through the company's network to experience errors. The bug was fully resolved by 930. I'm interested to know

what happens to the business when they have these outages. Because on one hand, it's a great way to tell the world that the entire world runs on Cloudflare. And then you talk about the stress from the Cloudflare team where anybody that's built a software product has experienced the product going down and the stress around that. But it's like when your product goes down and then many of the services that people use and love across the country and the world also go It's even more stressful, but it also probably brings like a ton of, you know, a ton of traffic to the site and people might start evaluating some features and say, hey, maybe this is a good solution. I'm going to watch. I'm going to sign up and see how they kind of react to this. There's some pretty crazy news. The founder of an ADHD startup is found guilty of conspiracy in an Adderall case. What a crazy story. Telemedicine psychiatry startups have driven an unprecedented wave of amphetamine abuse. So he was worried. He was sounding the alarm bells four years ago about ADHD medications being overly prescribed, too easy to prescribe. He said, after tweeting this, an executive at helloahead.com, DM'd me from an anonymous account,

details of my care history with them, asking that I delete the tweet or caveat that they are not bad. Worth remembering that in 2021, 2022, many major healthcare venture investors funded a cabal of internet pill mills that operated with mafia tactics. to silence regulators and drive an unprecedented wave of amphetamine dependence in the United States. Well, today there has been some justice, I'd done, I suppose, for these ADHD startups. A jury found Ruthie Ahee guilty of conspiring to distribute controlled substances after her startup. Dunn Global became a ready source of Adderall prescriptions for more than 100,000 patients. Tech and Venture basically decided like doctors were a bug, not a feature. It's like, yeah, why waste time talking to a doctor just to get the medication that you want and that you know you need?

It's like, oh, actually, like, having somebody that is like, you know, even if it's slower, like having somebody that's there and actually understanding the patient and having like some personal connection with the patient feels very much more and more like a feature. And also having the economic incentive of the doctor being like they get paid a lot of money. and live a great life just to give great advice and follow the Hippocratic Oath and be like a pinnacle, like a member of their society, not to increase conversion rate. Exactly. InVibia beat earnings. They have traded up. The stock is up 3.8, 3.91% is at the very bottom. There were signs. This is your prediction. One of your many predictions, but this is all, the only, the only data that you needed to know. You know, you know, you see. You know, you see, said this, I think he's going to beat earnings because he's drinking beers. And Ev was like,

yeah, you belong in a pod shop. And he was saying it like sarcastically. Like, you know, to be in a real hedge fund pod shop, like you have to be much more quantitative than that. Turns out you don't. Turns out the vibe-based analysis works. You got to take it all in. Absolutely. Thank you to everyone for tuning in and we will see you tomorrow. And the global economy continues. Continues. The party continues, folks. White suits tomorrow. Gabe in the chat. Gabe's getting drunk. Goodbye. Thank you. You know,