TBPN Live - Diet TBPN: November 4, 2025

Episode Date: November 5, 2025

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We are live from Silicon Valley. We're hanging out with some absolute dogs. We have some breaking news out of Sequoia Capital. They have a new set of bosses, new top dogs. Top Dog, a new generation of Sequoia Stewards. I think Roloff probably just recently got into racing cars. And he's just like, I need to go full time. I need to go all in on this.

I got a step back. I found my real calling. Bro went out and said venture capital is return-free risk and then hand it over the keys. The timing is interesting. Anthropic is the new king of AI API sales, boatload of new financials and projections below. Anthropic this summer hiked its most optimistic growth forecast by roughly 13 to 28% over the next three years and is projecting as much as 70 billion in revenue in 2028. Yeah, the notable thing here is are projecting cash flow. Yeah, profitable in 27.

17 billion in cash flow in 2008. not something you see from AI players outside of Nvidia. Remember the whole Dario idea of like each model individually is cash flow positive, but you keep having to scale up by 10x? To actually be cash flow positive at the company level, I have to imagine they would have to not do the next training. Open AI's plan spend $115 billion to then become profitable in 2030, Anthropics plan has spent $6 billion to then become profitable in 27,

will be curious to see what works best. In 2019, people saying, NVIDIA's stock is extremely overvalued. This was pre-the-Etherium pump, I believe. And NVIDIA's market cap was $100 billion. It was at $100 billion. And then in 2025, we now see that the market cap is $5 trillion. This was pretty surreal to see this image surface.

I'm surprised Jensen did this and allowed himself to be photographed doing it. But this was June 4th, 2024. He was signing a woman's shirt at a conference, and V-Divya is up 85%. Historically, these have been top signals. But here we are. Jensen has always been a rock star.

There's not like he put on the jacket at the top. He was born in it. Korean fried chicken stocks were pumping. I am financially ruined, short-selling Korean-fried chicken companies. I have lost everything and I'm not sure how to continue. This week I lost $472,000 short-selling Korean fried chicken companies. My idea was with the declining Korean population in the recent trend towards healthier eating and vegan diets, there's an opportunity here. Everything is gone. There's some debate over how impactful the CHATGBT launch has been on

job displacement. We keep going back and forth on this. I mean, they certainly want it to get there, but it, that's not how people use it just yet. Like, for the most part, it is like, well, I think the notable, I think, I think, I think something notable about, like, when I think of the chat GPT, like jobs, displacement, debate and discourse, like, I look at our company, which is like, despite a bunch of new tools popping up, we still need to hire video editors. We still want to hire writers. There's, like, a bunch of these different roles that This chart, to me, has always been about interest rates going through the roof. That, that's what, it just happened to almost perfectly coincide with the chat GPT.

If you look at the growth of the S&P 500, like almost all the growth is driven by AI. If only there was some major event a year before that was important and affected interest rates in hiring trends. And so there's like the cultural trends around the, what Elon did at X that just kind of like woke a lot of CEOs up to this idea that they could run leaner. The interest rates is huge. If AI isn't displacing, but if CEOs think that AI is going to displace people or AI will be in five years, well, a lot of the reason why you hire someone isn't because you need the job done today. It's because like, I think that every CEO, even if they don't have an AI narrative,

wants an AI narrative. So if you have to do layoffs, why not say, hey, we're getting a bunch of efficiency out of AI tools. And that's why we're doing layoffs. Michael Burry. has just filed his 13F 11 days early. He has never done this before. Massive put, he's going short, Palantir and NVIDIA. I think in general, people continuously misunderstand the sort of like notional value versus the size of the actual portfolio.

Yeah, yeah, yeah. Let Burry cook. I wonder if Burry wish he played himself in the big shore so that all the meme, if he knew all the meme images would be shared hundreds, thousands of times a day. It's more on Palantir earnings. Q3, they did 1.18 billion of revenue, up 63% year over year, 883 million of U.S. revenue, up 77% year over year, 397 U.S. commercial revenue, up 121% year over year.

Beating like this and then trading down 8% the next day shows that the market's a little shaky. The Denver-based firm sells software to centralize, manage, and analyze large amounts of data. They're hiring high schoolers now. They're just like, college is pointless. We'll just hire you straight out of high school. This is rare enough to be highlighted. An actually good Financial Times article on the state of the AI race between the U.S. and China,

he put race in quotes. One, the fact that for a general purpose technology such as AI, long-term advantage often comes down to how widely and deeply technology spread across society. And China has advantages here, as the article notes, since they're unarguably better at orchestrating society-wide transformation, as that's all they've been doing for the past three decades.

They've got some reps in. The data point that I have not seen that I would like to see is actual consumption of AI. It's clear that they were able to catch up on creation of Frontier model with Deepseek, but how much is actually getting implemented? This is extremely ironic as the U.S. effectively pushed China to develop models that are more efficient and open source, which turns out to be a better strategy for global diffusion. If you're a company in, say, Germany or Brazil, you can download Quine or Deepseek, run it locally, fine-tune it for your market and never worry about API rate limits.

But does that mean that you win? The article notes, the public in China is the most optimistic in the world about AI. NVIDIA is a $5 trillion company. Like, if they could sell to China, how much... Like, it's not like it's a $10 trillion company, is it? Is it that big of a deal? Like, how big is the China opportunity? It's the second largest computing market in the world.

I don't know. It depends on how AGI pill do you are, John. Tesla was selling into China as long as well, as long as it took for them to copy it. New York City is choosing between Mamdani and Cuomo, and Mamdani is at 95% chance. Cuomo's at 5%. Up from around 90. You know, there's a lot of people out there saying, smart money's on Cuomo. Maybe he'll win. I think the degenerate money is on Cuomo. That's probably true. Monthly performance from Canva, Wingstop, Shake Shack, a bunch of other restaurants. Most of these restaurants stocks were trading at 35 to 100 times forward P.E.

just recently. Many still are. This is just a bubble deflating. Bubbles can't be sustained indefinitely. Chipotle's big bet on younger consumers is unraveling. Uncertain U.S. economy is catching up to younger Americans. Chain has spent years cultivating a younger clientele pitching its burritos and bowls as nutritious protein-packed meals for gym bros and healthy eaters. What do you think, Ben? I used to get easily 90% of my calories from Chipotle at certain times of my life. And anytime you were like on a long drive. Yes. Knowing that at some point in the drive,

you could pull over and have a nice, fresh, nutritious, slop bowl. It was something to look forward to. Oh, he's amazing. Quality is degraded to such an extreme degree that it's no, I'd rather fast than eat Chipotle in almost any situation. Chipotle's expensive now. It's over $10.

I sort of look back fondly on the days when Chipoli was felt and was a luxury when I was like, okay, I have a huge bag of. extra guac and extra meat was like I am a king were you at were you like a frozen chicken breast guy too yeah for sure i'd just be look Costco i'd be looking at the yeah one pound bag of rice and the frozen chicken breast being like again we meet again we meet again revenue is growing because they're they're they're opening new stores but at existing stores you see they got to go up market caviar bowls can i have wagu a 5 wago bowl with uh double beluga on top history was just

made luxe family company and oral technology has just successfully flown the first ever fully autonomous fighter jet ever in u.s history it is a crazy looking jet the mainstream narrative is that this was created by humans where all these companies coming from we're so back casey hammer's been saying like we're not making solar in america effectively and here's this company that's just uh cooking setting out 14 megawatts of solar panels in a single day martin screlli is forecasting that will get to $100 trillion in market cap. Even desk email jobs require human thought, but higher-priced jobs like legal, medical, finance

can also be replaced by AI. This is a nightmare post for NVIDIA bears. Yeah, this is really... Can't make this stuff up. SpaceX Starship, 2.7 billion HLS contract cost includes docking adapter, NASA Lockheed Orion, 31.6 billion cost, and counting, in 19 years in development, docking is an extra 2.5 billion extra.

The doc's going to be an extra 2.5. We're sorry. All this to be an AI note-taker app number 8, 7, blah, blah, blah, blah. The question here is, is there a market for an AI note-taker for the kind of people that Cooley is really good at marketing to? I don't think it's possible for them to make a 10x better product than Otter and Granola. What are college students actually using? Like, from what we've heard, the stack, if you want to, like, cheat on your homework. What is the stack, Jordi?

It's actually ChatGPT Atlas. Benchmark 2020, Vintage Fund, marked at an AX. Tyler Hodge has the story. They're doing just fine. I think what Ev Randall should do, new GP over at Benchmark, is 10X that fun again. Do you need venture capital?

Call Ev Randall at Benchmark. 1-800. 1-800. Fruitus raises $150 million to power the next wave of healthy snacking. This is crazy. Fruits has closed $150 million funding round. It's a huge blue bear.

Led by J.P. Morgan Asset Management with Ray Dalio doubling down. We got to try some of these for sure. Valuing the Berry Powerhouse at over $1 billion. The snacking company best known for its jumbo blueberries and new grab and go snack cups. Generated more than $400 million in revenue last year with blueberry sales. They got to get an AI narrative here. This is take a simple idea and take it seriously. And sometimes the simple idea is obscenely large blueberries.

Will I Am is in the news because he will be teaching a new. new class on agentic AI at Arizona State University. Hearing how Will I Am is using AI would be interesting. I am endlessly entertained by there's somebody who has a craft. Like, you might not like his music. You might love his music. But clearly, you know that he makes music. Like, he has a process. He has a studio. He makes hits. Will I.m was an early investor in Tesla, pre-Elon as CEO. Open AI, Anthropic, Twitter, Pinterest, Dropbox, hugging face, beats, and runway. AI-generated song has entered a billboard radio chart for the first time, Zania Monet, created by a human Talisha Jones, who used Suno, also signed a $3 million record deal a few

weeks ago. Imagine just slopping it up, and then all of a sudden you got the $3 million record deal. I would like to see an AI musician not share their real identity and a Satoshi of music. Not a pop star, but a slop star. If you want to to log off if you want to touch some grass, head over to wander, find your happy place, book of wonder with inspiring reviews, hotel great amenities, dreamy beds, top tier cleaning, 24-7 concierge services, vacation, but better. Like most of you guys, I didn't get into crypto to get rich. I got into crypto because I believed in the vision of 500 different stable coins issued by 500 different centralized institutions

on 500 different blockchains. I do wonder what the stable result is. Like what is the final equilibrium? Is it just endless proliferation of new coins? or is it a consolidation? You have tether at 183 billion. USC at 75 billion. The next largest is USDA at 9 billion. Below that is die. And then below that,

below that is World Liberty Financial. I have this partially formed hypothesis that artist backlash against generative AI crystallized largely in response to text-driven user interfaces. the art world has come to accept tools like Photoshop and earlier photography itself that still shares the aesthetic of traditional art creation

if Mid Journey, Chad GBT, DALI, etc., had interfaces along the lines of Nvidia Canvas from 2020 pictured below, I remember this tool, it was awesome. You could do that, you could draw whatever, like, an outline you wanted, and it would just automatically generate it and it looked great. Palmer says it would look enough like existing tools that

the critique would look purest and elite. Art via command line, on the other hand, looks sufficiently other that you can easily berate the users as not artists. Service Titan at $9 billion market cap

on 866 million of revenue comparing that to Harvey, which is $8 billion valuation on somewhere around 100 million of ARR. At this point you have to believe that we're moving from a world of niche vertical SaaS to the next industrial revolution. You would not be able to underwrite Harvey like this against like the existing legal AI market. This is a bet on labor displacement. Apparently the 200 largest law firms in

the world annually provide 130 billion of legal services. So that's the top 200. So Harvey's already sitting at you know basically there. We will be back in the ultra down in Los Angeles. We'll see you. Can't wait. Then, goodbye.