TBPN Live - Diet TBPN: October 20th, 2025

Episode Date: October 21, 2025

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You're watching TBPN. Today is Monday, October 20th, 20, 25. We are live from the TBPN Ultradome, the Temple of Technology, the Fortress of Finance, the Capital of Capital. Later in the show, we also have the CEO of GameStop, Ryan Cohen, joining the show at noon. So if you're new here and you're tuning in for the first time, please stay with us. Do you think the AWS outage is, is it entirely because of us and the GameStop shorts want us to stop podcasting? so that we can't bring them the latest in the world of GameStop. I think it was potentially Amazon just turning it off for a second

just to show everyone that, hey, cloud, clouds is still pretty important. Yeah. Forgotten about us. That makes sense. You're still dependent on it. Andra Carpathie made waves this week on the Dwarkesh Patel podcast. He said a lot of, he called AI Slop. He also said that the models are amazing.

He said that autocomplete is his sweet spot. He had a bunch of positive things to say. But overall, people did not react positively. Everyone says the AI bubble is over. It's popped. You got to rotate out of AI stocks. My take is that if you're looking for something safe, you've got to rotate into food, water, shelter, and guns.

All of industrialization is a bubble. We're going back to monkey. We're returning to monkey. We're going to be living in huts because technology is a bubble. Technology is fake. And all we have left is to homestead and live in a shelter. So get ready to go back to sticks and stones. That's my take.

Good take. Andre Carpathie was a co-founding member of Open AI. He was there from day one. He also was at Tesla and built the self-driving car program there. He is one of the most respected AI practitioners, researchers, basically saying that AGI is like 10 years away, not one year, not two years. He's kind of debunking the idea, or at least he's just sharing like the vibes that he doesn't feel like the AI 2027 fast takeoffs to scenario is probable. Over a year ago, September 23rd,

2024, Sam Altman posted a blog post said the intelligence age. And this is what he said in there. He said, it is possible that we will have super intelligence in a few thousand days. He's still setting expectations to be like, AGI is a decade away, which is exactly what Andre said. But when Sam said it, everyone's like, let's go super long. And when Andre says, oh, it's bad, which is kind of an interesting tweak. Whenever you talk to a technologist and you say, like, okay, you're working on getting us to Mars. You're working on fusion reactors. You're working on quantum computing. When will this actually change my life? When will this be, when will this technology be ready for prime time? Everyone says, it's just a decade away.

It's going to be so long that everyone will have forgotten in a decade. Some people listen to the Carpathian interview and thought, great, I have 10 years to escape the permanent undercutting. Yeah, totally, totally. Which is exactly how open AI is also acting. Yes, yes, yes. They're acting like a big tech. company. They're launching a social media app. They're working on ads. They're working on commerce. They're trying to scale paid users, right? They're just acting like a traditional hyperscale. The fact that 10 years, AGI, is like a bearish take. That's so bullish. That's extremely bullish. Did you see a lot of pushback from anyone at the big labs on the interview?

No, I didn't see anything. I expected to see more people saying Carpathie's been out of the game for a few years. He doesn't have the scale. He's not really at the front tier. He's not seeing what we're seeing. And I didn't see any of that. Whatever you are thinking of doing in the public markets, go to public.com investing for those that take it seriously. They got multi-asset investing, industry-leading yields. They're trusted by millions. Oracle's now on the hook for something like $300 billion in infrastructure over the next five years. That's a lot very quickly. They're hoping that Open AI revenue will pay for that. It is very notable that OpenAI has announced partnerships with Etsy and Walmart.

Yeah. And not Amazon and eBay. Amazon's management team, eBay's management team aren't so quick to let Sam the Fox into the henhouse. Things can get out of control where like the iPhone got so dominant that Google had to pay Apple to be the default search. It's not the right framing to say like we've never seen anything like this. It's breaking all of our patterns, so we're just completely operating off playbook. I think it's much better to just say that, like, this is a new hyperscaler. We all saw what happened with Google and Amazon.

They were started before the dot-com bubble popped. And they scaled very fast. Open AI scaling faster on users and revenue. And so we are investing more, but it's all proportionate. And so it's the exact same playbook. Open AI growth, chat GPT growth, is seemingly slowing a little bit. And that makes sense just based entirely on the scale. that they're out right now.

There's a reason that open AI wants its own browser, perplexity wants its own browser. I don't think they've properly even leveraged Chrome yet in order to drive Gemini usage. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Browser Wars of the summer of 2025. I want to pre-register the following opinion. I think it's plausible, but by no means guaranteed

that we could see a massive financial crisis or bubble pop affecting AI in the next year. I expect if this happens, it will mostly be for mundane economic reasons, over-leveraged markets, financial policy of major nations, mis-timing of bets, even by a small amount of and good old fraud, not because the technology isn't making rapid progress. We got to go even harder.

The bear market's bullish for Doom. Underrated AI Doom scenario, the bubble pops so hard that everyone goes bankrupt. There's mass famine and starvation and humanity population collapses all because we went to Levert long AI. What do you think about that? plausible it just might be what feels listening to this podcast it's uh balloon popping we will see about the reason it is so important for everyone to keep pretending that aGI is definitely right around the corner is that there is now over one trillion of investment riding on this

belief either already expended or committed we should move to the uh the napoleon jewels that were stolen from the louvre in a major robbery the thieves stole jewelry from display cases in Gallery de Pallion. Finally, a brazen heist. We are anti-heist. We are anti-crime. Do not do this. If you have information that could lead to the arrest of these thieves, let us know. We will send you a hat. Is this the cure for male loneliness? Tourists were streaming into the world's most visited museum on Sunday when a group of thieves burst in through a window of a gilded gallery on the second floor and made off with a set of priceless royal jewels. Two of the perpetrators, at least one, wearing a high visibility yellow vest.

That looks, you blend in so much. He just looks like work crown. And they used angle grinders to cut through the window and get inside. Tempted, but failed to set fire to their truck. So they were trying to burn the truck on the way out to like get rid of all the fingerprints, I suppose. And they dropped the crown of Empress Eugene with nearly 1,400 diamonds before they sped away. It was found damaged. No one was injured.

Eight pieces in total were stolen, including an emerald earring and an emerald necklace that belonged to Empress Marie. Such a brutal. fumble. Bumbling 1400 diamonds. Massive fumble. Yeah, obviously, they're never going to be able to capture the same value necessarily as if you're able to do an open auction. There's a small pool of buyers. There's probably 100 people in the world that would be willing to pay tens of millions and potentially more just to know that they had it and just to be a family secret. Do you think there are any buyers that would flex it? What if you're Vladimir Putin? What if you're, Kim Jong-U. Elon says, my estimate on the probability of GROC-5 achieving AGI is now at 10%

in rising. Gabe says 10% chance Elon declares he reached AGI a fourth time. Elon says a lot of crazy stuff about like, I hope that we'll be able to do novel physics. I think the next version is going to be really powerful, this and that. But I don't know that he's ever actually called a version of GROC AGI. But anyway, it clearly upset Elon because he replied and said, you call yourself a quote unquote researcher hitting somebody with the double quotes we know with the pain that that inflicts it's terrible you never want to be hit with the double quotes jensen huang uh was at a citadel event future of global markets and said we are 100% out of china we went from 95% market share to 0% i can't imagine any policymaker thinking that's a good

idea 100% out of china but doing us astonishingly healthy business in Singapore and Malaysia totally out of the blue. Swinging around accusations that Singapore and Malaysia are fronts for Chinese chip demand. We also love ramp.com. Time is money save both. Easy use corporate cards bill pay accounting and a whole lot more all in one place. Why the China doves are wrong. American business leaders cozing up to Beijing refuse to see that the Communist Party wants us to fail. That while some Americans wear the label China Hawk as a badge of honor, it is really a badge of shame. The future, Mr. Wong says doesn't have to be all us or them. It could be us and them. A lot of this is all teeing up a major trade deal. The rare earth equation is certainly a big one. America has a

bunch of levers to pull. If they were truly like the next scaling run is what does it? They would be like, oh, let's take the NVIDIA chips as well. Instead, they're saying, okay, well, let's actually gear up for independence over a long period of time. J.P. Morgan says NVIDIA, CEO Jensen Wong's projection of AI CAPEX growing from 600 billion today to three to four trillion by 2030 is financially feasible, though ambitious. Even with a projected 1.2, 1.6 trillion annual funding gap, private markets could contribute about 500 billion per year by 2030, leaving the rest to be covered by leverage expansion. Yeah, and the key question is, you know, if you want AI CAPEX to scale to three to four trillion you're going to need revenue to support that jordy have you have you received any any

inbound from random people who seem to have gpt psychosis hard to say humans no longer necessary so we're getting rid of them replacement AI can do anything a human can do but better faster and much much cheaper quote from sam olman AI will probably most likely lead to the end of the world but in the meantime there'll be great companies that's a wild quote here from dario i think there's a 25 percent chance that things go really, really badly. The Starbucks CEO, Brian Nicol, says the coffee giant is all in on AI, reveals real-time artificial intelligence systems designed to assist baristas and transform store operations. We've got to put on the schizo hat.

Okay, please. Starbucks stock is up 6.66% past five days. Coincidence? Very weird number. Are they using AI to summon the demon? Uber is going to give its drivers in the U.S. an option to make money by doing digital tasks. These short, minute-long tasks can be done any time, including while idling for passengers.

I hope they put some type of restriction in where if they detect that you're actually moving, that they say you cannot do data labeling right now because somebody in traffic, just data labeling. Tyler, you're pretty AGI-I-pilled, right? Yeah. Okay, well, why don't you earn $100 doing data labeling? That's your challenge for the next 24 hours. Was weird being in Vegas recently so quiet, so many fewer people gambling, drinking, partying.

My Pet Theory, Ozympic killing Vegas, just like it's killing snack food brands, liquor producers, and Napa. Yes. I would go to the opposite angle with the rise of Robin Hood prediction markets and sports betting. There's little reason to go to Vegas. It is more expensive. The house edge is higher and it's hotter outside. Less drinking contributes to, though. Isn't Vegas like a recession indicator, right?

like the real economy is not not doing well right now i saw another quote that just said like the nightlife scene there has been hyper financialized to a degree that it's just not even fun anymore people aren't gambling for one reason or another maybe it's the olympic you need to make Vegas high end yeah what if they set up a bunker in there that uh that has a bunch of stolen goods from all of in the world from you says over the last 15 years reddits relationship had advice has shifted towards recommending breakups, boundaries, and therapies, and against compromised communication and letting people have their space. This is concerning for a number of reasons, one being that are your favorite AI models are all trained on Reddit. If you're having relationships,

problems, whether friend or romantic, and you start a podcast together, that sounds like terrible. Okay, so here are the options from Reddit. End relationship, communicate, give space slash time, set respect boundaries seek therapy counseling compromise other how about getting the octagon duke it out duke it out if you're having a relationship problem with someone buy them a luxury watch on getbezzled.com because your bezel concierge is available now to source you any watch on the planet seriously any watch if you're like oh the senate republicans posted a video of chuck schumer chuch schumer things playing with americans every day gets better for us chuck shoe when come women infants every day gets better for us okay okay the mouth movement is

Chuck Schumer thinks. Every day gets better for us. It's not bad. I mean, like, it's clearly based on some real image that they took, and so the lighting looks very real, the skin texture looks really real, because the AI model doesn't really have to do that much to regenerate it from scratch. But, of course, we've seen that, you know, all the models are basically, you know, indistinguishable if you don't have full context at this point.

Thank you so much. Leave us five stars on Apple Podcasts on Spotify. Tomorrow. See you tomorrow. Thank you.