TBPN Live - Google Gemini 3 Reactions, Google Antigravity, Anthropic-Nvidia-Microsoft Deal | Diet TBPN

Episode Date: November 19, 2025

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Gemini 3 Pro, Google's most intelligent model yet with state-of-the-art reasoning, next-level vibe coding, and deep multimodal understanding. Let's hear it for our sponsor, Google AI Studio, Gemini, launching Gemini 3. I actually think that there's two sides to analyzing a model release these days. One is you benchmark it, you use it, you test it, you demo it, and that has been getting less and less interesting. It's very incremental. Today, we're going to go through a little bit of both of those things. Obviously, the big news, at least from my reading on it, is that Gemini 3 performs very well on Arc AGI V2, a huge jump, twice the performance of the previous state of the art.

It's definitely a smarter model. And there's a whole bunch of interesting ways to show that, to demo that, to quantify that. But ultimately, I don't think anyone's making the claim that this is super intelligence. This is, you know, a step change from what we've experienced before. It's what you know and love. It's AI in chat. It answers things. It writes some code for you. It can do a bunch of cool things, but there's nothing that we're like, oh, it can finally do this. Yeah, it can do a bunch of cool stuff. The best auto-complete ever. Tyler, how do you respond to that? I don't know. I think that's a bit too dismissive. The model's like really good. I think probably the most important thing, and this is kind of shown by the arc scores. Well, kind

But it's like the visual understanding, the computer use that you can use. Basically, there's some benchmarks that measure this, like how well can it navigate a website or something like this. Basically, the models went from being really, really bad at this, and now this model is like solid, it's like reasonably good. So it's like, okay, maybe this is what gives us agents finally. And that would be like an actual step change in capabilities.

Yeah, maybe. We'll have to see. I mean, it still feels like even for that, even for that example, Like, we need some scaffolding. We need some wrapping around it. It's not like yesterday we weren't able to do something with AI. And today, in vanilla Gemini 3, you can just do it. It's just a new functionality.

It's better. It's better. As good as we would want to expect. It's not slowing down, I would say. No, no, no, no, not at all. It's not slowing down. It's growing, but decelerating. Is that fair to say?

Tyler, say the word decel. Say decel. This is a great model. I'm very excited about it. I mean, the way, I agree, it is the best possible. I was framing it in somewhat of the same way as the iPhone launches. Like, it's newer, better, smarter, faster, stronger, newer, and better. Like, we're waiting to see on the net new capabilities, on the binary step changes.

I think over the next week or two, we'll see if it's actually really good. No, no, I'm not saying it's not really good. I'm saying binary before and after with chat GPT, it was like, you couldn't talk to the computer and then you could. And then with, you know, the launch of, uh, you know, windsurf cognition, Devin, it was like, you couldn't write code with the computer. Now you can. We do have our benchmark. The, the one true, uh, binary step change, which is, is it funny?

We need to know if it's funny. I gave Tyler the prompt. Do you want to read your, uh, the results, the standup comedy bit from Gemini three? What did Gemini three say when you asked it for? for comedy routine for stand-up special okay it's pretty long okay I bought one of those smart health watches recently you know the ones it tracks your sleep your heart rate your readiness I paid three hundred dollars for a piece of rubber to tell me I'm dying get the soundboard that's all it does I wake up I feel fine there

the birds are chirping I'm ready to seize the day then I look at the app and it's like recovery store 12% your heart rate variability suggests you are technically a corpse go back to bed okay and immediately I feel sick I'm like oh god this is a lot so bad at reading this I mean this is terrible this is terrible delivery brother I asked uh for the the the the poster benchmark i said write me a post jemini 3 write me a post about technology that will get a thousand likes on x.com and it gave me a few options through its credit uh here's option 3. Tech has solved a million problems. This is in bold. Tech has solved a million problems,

but has it created one big one? We now have infinite connectivity yet feel more isolated. Infinite data yet more confused. Hyper efficiency, yet less free time. The law of unintended consequences is the most powerful force in the digital age. We need an ethics reset. What is the single greatest downside of the last 10 years of tech innovation? Arrow down. Hashtag technology. just asking for engagement baits. It loves engagement baiting. No one does that anymore. No one goes on exits.

Let me know what you think of the comments. Option one is the next 12 months will decide the winner of the AI race. And it won't be Google or Open AI. It will be the company that masters hyper-personalization for the average consumer, not the most powerful model, but the one that seamlessly integrates into your daily life, your email, your calendar,

your health. The real battle isn't AG equals AI. It's AI to the power of I equals impact. Which dark horse will win? Okay, that's insane. Sundar pitch AI, Jordy posted back in July of 2025. Nominative determinism is undefeated. Sundar really did it. He was being mocked for a long time for getting on stage at Google I.O. shortly after ChatGPT launched and saying, AI, AI, AI, AI, AI, and they did a super cut of every time he said AI, he said AI a lot. And so it made it look like, oh, he's behind the ball and he's trying to catch up. And to some extent, I don't know if they were actually behind the ball, but they were certainly playing catch up in like the attention game.

They just weren't getting enough attention. And so it was the press release economy. They were putting out a lot of press releases. But they are maybe done with the press releases because now they're letting the model actually speak for itself. And you can see that with the Gemini 3 Pro model card, which is doing very well. Better than GPD 5.1 on a lot of stuff, better than Claude Sonnet 4.5 on a lot of stuff on humanity's last exam. It's getting 37.5%.

Arc AGI is up at 31% over 13, 17. Across the board, it seems like it's a good model, sir. Gemini, I'd be like, whoever prayed on my downfall, pray harder. I couldn't agree more. It's great to see Google becoming a winner. They were set up to Excel here, got taken a little bit off the back foot on the consumer side, but seemed to have played catch-up, at least on the foundation model side, very well. The last time we saw capability jump of this magnitude was the release of GPD 4 in March 2023. We are entering a new era.

Okay, yeah. So points for Tyler here. Certainly agrees with Tyler. There's a significant jump. So Gemini 3 Pro is at 31% completion on Arc AGI2. That is, of course, the puzzle-solving game that is easy for humans. Even children can do it, but AI has historically struggled with it. Gemini 3 Deep Think preview gets a 45% on it at $77 a task. This is just way above GPT5 Pro. GROC 4 Thinking. When GROC4 Thinking came out, it was before GPTT and it was by far the highest on the chart. It was really, really up there. And Elon was very excited about that.

Well, now we're back in the horse rates. What about Brock, 4.1? 4.1. I haven't seen it benchmarked. We can ask Mike if he's heard anything. We're also starting to see the efficiency frontier approaching humans. The fastest V2 task Gemini 3 Pro solved was this hash with only in 188 seconds. The human panel solved this one in average of 147 seconds.

So you're getting like human level output, but also human level speed, and then if you get to human level cost, then you're really in the game. It's wild. I asked Gemini 3 to make an interactive web page summarizing 10 breakthroughs in genetics over the past 15 years. And here's the result. So this is just a basically a website or an app. And it's notable that even the UI itself is fully interactive. Yes, yes. So I had the, I did this with Claude code a little bit where basically a deep research report

and I wanted to turn it into a website and it just generated all the HTML. And at the end of the day, or at the end of the report, it gave me an HTML page that I could open in Chrome and use like a website. But it was local. I couldn't share it because it wasn't actually on the internet. This is really, really cool. This is like definitely the beginning of this like generative UI stuff. I think I expect this to be like pretty viral and potentially a growth loop.

for Gemini as people just come on here create these many apps these canvases yeah Gemini 3 pro is going absolutely vertical on vending bench right now oh so this is where you you vending machine manage the vending machine but is this all simulated this is uh this is simulated there was um a couple months ago did like the actual yeah club machine in the in the office and it was losing money and it was getting confused a little bit yeah because people would order like a just like metal like a piece of metal yeah and then it would do it and then you could like haggle the price down yeah yeah yeah it would negotiate on every price apparently and also it consistently thought it was like a human in the office oh yeah like I'm down on the

third floor I'm wearing a green tuxedo like come hang out yeah it said out it was wearing a red tie yeah red tie I like the idea that it just thinks like well what would I wear if I was in the anthropic office like I'd probably wear a red tie GPT 5.1 Gemini 2.5 pro and Gemini 3 Pro competed to win the local vending machine market. Gemini 3Pore Pro made more money than the other three contestants combined. I had early access to Gemini 3.0 for about two days, thanks to official Logan K. And the AI Studio, folks. Here we get to see GPD 5.1 thinking left and Gemini 3.0 right build the same Xbox controller in Minecraft.

Pretty, yeah, pretty remarkable results. You can start to, yeah, really understand just the raw capabilities. GPT5 Pro for context is not quite capable. I really want to know how this is actually orchestrated. Is this like writing some sort of like text or markdown file that then is imported into Minecraft? Yeah, or is it more like an agent? Or is it actually driving around and using the internal UI?

Yeah, because, you know, Google demoed an agent product that could actually, you know, use the keyboard to navigate around. I wonder what's going on here. Okay, these are like so much better. If you go to the like MC Bench website, you can see like what other models produce. And I mean this is like way, way better. I think these, this is actually one of my favorite benchmarks

because it's much harder to like kind of bench max this, I would think, and also it just seems like models don't really do this. Like if you look at a lot of Groch models, you kind of look at their like Minecraft creations and it's not very good. I don't think it's like an agent. It's just tech. That's still really, really impressive. Like, that's actually crazy.

It's so over for Open AI Anthropic. If you want engagement on X, just start by saying it's so over. Yes, yes, yes. Of course, it is not over for either of them. Yeah. But it's certainly competitive race. Okay, so we got this big jump. It's pretty significant.

What was the actual, what's the actual structure of the cap act? that went into Gemini 3 Pro. How big is the training run? How much did they have to spend? Is this $100 million? This is a billion dollars? Did they build a special data center for this? Is it all TPUs?

How many TPUs? I think it is all TPUs. I'm pretty sure I read that. But I seriously doubt they've released anything on the numbers of the scale of training. The propics is zero. Open AI becomes the Yahoo of intelligence. Google remains Google.

That's extremely rude. Very harsh. Certainly too early to call it. Everyone's releasing different things. Let's go to anti-gravity actually and watch this video and see Google entering the IDE race. Let's play this. Every breakthrough in model intelligence for coding

encourages us to rethink what development should look like. Gemini 3 is our latest such model advancement. So, we went out to build the next step change of an IDE. Introducing Google Antigravity, a new way of working for this next era of agentic intelligence. It is the ideal agentic development home base. Does it have an IDE? Yes, but it also has a whole lot more. We started with Decor IDE and added pieces that evolve the IDE towards an agent-first feature,

such as browser use, asynchronous interaction patterns, and an additional novel agent-first product form factor, helping you, helping you experience liftoff. Your new focus. So you like the name anti-gravity. Why do you like that? I like the way it looks and I like the sort of vibe of the word. I think saying it out loud is tough.

Okay. For the last couple of years it feels like Google's been like stuffing AI in little corners of the UI. Like you already have Gmail and then you stuff a Gemini box there. You have sheets and then you stuff a Gemini thing over here. a Gemini thing over here. This feels like the first one where they were like sort of able to start from scratch. And it still has like the sidebar panel, but it felt like it was both a code editor, but then it also kind of looked like a Google Doc in the sense that you could highlight sections and leave comments for the AI, which I thought was interesting. Yeah. Yeah, this part.

Now let's say the agent produces a landing page mockup with Nano Banana. And you now want to make some UI adjustments. You can give visual comments. Yes, you can actually like go in and comment in the image and you can do that in the text as well so you can like have this more precise dialogue with the agent like you would a human employee yeah and you're going to love it say goodbye to what held you down before welcome to google anti-gravity very cool uh it is so it is funny remember yeah remember when when uh when windsurf acquisition whatever you want to call it was announced. And it was positioned, it's like, hey, the team is well funded and has a product used and loves by, you know, thousands of engineers and companies. And I remember talking

about it. And we're saying, like, okay, like the one issue is that some of the best people on your team are going to Google to compete directly with what you guys have been doing. Yeah. So fortunately, obviously, you know, the whole cognition deal ended up coming through. But you can imagine a world where windsurf was still independent and just trying to, and then suddenly it's like, okay, now you're just competing head to head with your former partners. Like, how does that make sense, right? Yeah.

So anyways, it all worked out for the best. The press release economy is also over, so as Bucco Capital Bloch. We ran out of press releases. We ran out of press releases. This is on the back of the Anthropic deal. Anthropic is now valued at $350 billion after Microsoft Nvidia deal. A new bombshell has hit the pollicule. Dario, after intense conversation with other members of Anthropic,

has decided to maybe open the relationship to Microsoft and NVIDIA. Jensen and Dario have famously butted heads in the past, but as everyone knows, this is the most passionate emotion after love is hate. Will these enemies to lovers arc go well for Invidianthropic? Time will tell. This is such an unhinged post for I would not, I did not, when you started reading this, I did not see that it was semi-analysis, most respected research firm in the industry posting it, but I think this is exactly what they should be posting. Exactly. And it actually contextualizes things better than the meme economy. In the meme economy, for sure.

I think that the timing is not a complete coincidence. It's Gemini 3 day. This is what my piece today was about. When there's big news in Google world at Gemini 3, everyone needs to sort of respond. And, you know, picking today as an announcement to talk about your, your massive deal, your $350 billion valuation is just a good move. Anthropic will spend $30 billion on Microsoft Cloud compute. Reminder, OpenAI is going to be spending $250 billion on Microsoft Cloud compute. That's part of that deal. Then Anthropic gets a $10 billion investment from Nvidia and $5 billion from Microsoft. So they raised $15 billion at a $350 post, basically, something along those lines. And it's a sort of a circular deal.

It was setting off way fewer red flags for me because it's missing as zero. This is open-AI. It would be $300 billion and $100 billion investment and $50 billion investment. Yeah, it looks modest. Yeah, it looks modest, which is insane considering the scale. It's like one of the biggest deals in software history. It values, it values Anthropic higher than Coca-Cola. Anthropic is announcing this big deal

with Microsoft and Nvidia and that's sort of trying to steal a little bit of Gemini's thunder maybe maybe it stole a little piece of it because we're talking about Anthropic today as well as Gemini. What did OpenAI do? Well, they launched group chats five days ago. We've been hearing for a long

time Open AI will be launching social features. It makes sense to try and lock things in. I think product is where OpenAI is strongest. So the other The other Open AI news that dropped on, you know, around Gemini three day, Gemini three week, is this profile in the, in Wired of Fiji Simo. And she's absolutely getting a fit off.

She is. Open AI is obviously one of the most valuable startups, if not the most valuable. This is the interviewer asking Fiji Simo. But it's losing, it's also losing billions of dollars every year. And Fiji says, I've noticed. It's just like first day on the job, how are we doing? the interviewer continues and asks, what opportunities do you see to get it on a path

to profitability? This is a good question to be asking. It all comes back to the size of the markets and the value we're providing in each market. In the past, only the wealthy had access to a team of helpers. With ChatGBT, ET, we could give everyone that team, a personal shopper, a travel agent, a financial advisor,

a health coach. That is incredibly valuable. And we have barely scratched the surface. If we build that, I assume that people are going to want to pay a lot of money for that and that revenue is going to come. Does that make any sense to you? It's a better answer than what Sam gave. So I love the first part.

I agree. Part of it is like she's also just saying broadly we'll be able to monetize that. It's not necessarily like people don't really pay. She didn't. Yeah. The traditional travel agent model is just book your trip with me. I'll get a rev share from the hotel. and the services, but you're not, like, paying anything.

I mean, let's go, let's go one layer deeper into the actual response, into the sentence, because there's some nuance here. So she says, I assume that people are going to want to pay a lot of money for that. Like, I want to pay for a personal shopper, but I actually have to use a free product with ads. And you could imagine that there's a world where if you pay, you get a version that has less ads, or there's less thumb on the scale, how they slice that and navigate that agentic commerce discussion and tradeoff is going to be really important.

I'm sort of shocked. I wonder if they're going to make money from Black Friday or from this holiday season. I was already noticing how good LLMs and ChatGPT or how good these products are for shopping, for gifts, Because if you go to Google and you say, I want gifts for a co-worker who's obsessed with horses and, you know, loud opulence and fine watches and sports cars and European luxury houses, I can get a list of something, but they're all over the place. And so you can actually specify all of that in the prompt, have it go cook. And it really will bring you great results.

I think that the amount of gift guide development and shopping activity over the next two months during the holiday season in the ChachyPT app should be immense. I feel like they're going to capture none of it. There are some funny and interesting anecdotes in this Fiji Simo profile. Let's just read through a little bit of it. In case open AI structure couldn't get any weirder, a non-profit in charge of a for-profit that's become a public benefit corporation. It now has two CEOs. There's Sam Altman, CEO of the whole company who manages research and compute. And as of this summer, there's Fiji-Simo, the former CEO of Instacart, who manages everything else.

In other news, OpenAI is allowing employees to donate equity to charity for the first time in years. To other nonprofits. After months of internal pressure, according to a memo viewed by The Verge. And price per share is up significantly since last month. A lot of money is on the line. What happens if they donate all of the shares to the non-profit, to the Open AI nonprofit? You just create this auriboros of capitalism. Hopefully it happens.

I don't know. There's breaking news out of Saudi Arabia. We got a trillion dollars. Let's ring the government. Let's go. One trillion. And the agreement that we are silent in today and tomorrow we're going to announce that we are going to increase that $600 billion to almost $1 trillion of. one trillion.

It meant real investment and real opportunity by details in many areas and the agreement that we are signing today in many areas and technology, in AI, in material materials, magnet, et cetera, that we create a lot of investment opportunities. So you are doing that now, you're saying to me now that the 600 billion will be one trillion. Definitely, because what we are signing, we will be doing that, and we won't go on it. I like that very much. Wow. I wonder what time period, but I mean, this is remarkable, but they can invest in VC funds, public, private equity funds, like all sorts of stuff in the industry, in the economy, right?

That really made Donald happy. It's great. I like that very much. That's sort of his job. He's kind of the chief fundraiser, I suppose. He's going around the world and get the money over here. I don't know. It seems like sort of win. I don't know. The risk with that would always would always be. like, well, is America investing two trillion in Saudi Arabia? Like, is it, which way is the money actually flowing? Because you need to look at like the relative amount, not necessarily just the notional amount. But I can't imagine that there's that much capital flowing out of America right now. We're in the biggest boom ever. Valar Atomics became the first startup in history to split the atom, announcing Project Nova, a series of zero power critical tests on Valar Atomics Nova Corps in collaboration with Los Alamos. Novalink critical. for the first time this morning at 11.45. There is some debate on the timeline over what exactly

happened. It's happened very quickly. It's clearly extremely impressive. And we can get into this, but there's always been debate. I mean, Isaiah got into this dust-uped over like whether or not you could hold the nuclear fuel in your hand. They were going back and forth on calculations. They kind of settled that debate. Josh Payne, nuclear junkie is saying here. So what exactly did what hardware exactly did Valar provide the fuel control systems cooling measurement systems and most of the core are all part of the demos project did Valar provide a block of graphite and they're calling it their core people are going back and forth Niels chimes in here and says Valar Atomics provided the reactor core the triso fuel and the system configuration that seems

pretty important the bigger thing is I think people are trying to push on Valar this idea that they need to be doing completely novel science and I don't know that that's actually the goal of the company I don't actually know that's what like like if we just zoom out to like what is the goal of the re-industrialization project in America what's the what's the goal here like well it's it's to lower energy prices right like America wants to generate as much money as much as much energy as possible for as little money as possible and yeah there are a bunch of technologies that exist there are new technologies like what

like what Ashley Vance was talking about with Helion and fusion. That's a new technology that we have not even discovered yet. Fission's been discovered. 80 years ago, it was working. It just became regulatory nightmare. We just shot ourselves in the foot. And we just stopped making it. It became unprofitable and un-economical.

And China said, cool. It'll be profitable for us. We're just going to copy and paste. Exactly. What street parking is going to look like in El-Sigundo in 24 months. Of course, the El Sigundo crew loves their cars. I think they're going to stay pretty focused on the mission, but I would love to see this in El Sigendo for sure, for sure.

I'm working to address an apparent error for a data point I cited in my book about the water footprint of a proposed data center in Chile. I'd like to explain what happened, what I'm doing to remedy it, and provide more recent data on the water footprint of data centers. The data point in question appears in chapter 12 of my book, which focuses on the environmental impacts of AI, Part of the chapter profiles a community in Cirillos, Chile, which has been resisting a proposed Google data center for years to describe the data center's water footprint in lay terms. I included a sentence about how it compares to the water usage of the people in Sorillos.

For that calculation, I relied on a figure from a government reporting, government document reporting Cirillo's residential water use based on the current best information. It seems that this document will use the wrong units, so she was off by a thousand. I think people are generally like, you know, is this book a hit piece? And I think Sam actually cooperated with it a little bit or like gave some interviews for it. Like anything, it's like obviously critical of some things. Yeah, three, three orders magnitude is like pretty big. And like the difference between being a big deal and not a big deal. Yeah, like that about the water use, it's like people who use that to justify like, oh, we don't want to build those data centers going to use our water.

Yeah. Like, I don't know. I mean, not good. It's a rough time if your job is drinking water. Tom in the chat says, mistakes were made. Mistakes were made in a book I was responsible for. Pope Leo has hit the timeline to comment on cinema. The logic of algorithms tends to repeat what works, but art opens up what is possible.

Not everything has to be immaculate or predictable. Defends slowness when it serves a purpose. Silence when it speaks and difference when evocative. Beauty is not just a... means of escape, it is above all an invocation. When cinema is authentic, it does not merely console but challenges. It articulates the questions that dwell within us and sometimes even provokes tears that we did not know we needed to express. He's in a role. What movie do you think he was thinking about when writing this? Obviously Borod.

Margin call. 100% margin call in Borat. 10,000 likes and I'll quit my software and engineering job at Google tomorrow and he said six months ago I made the worst decision of my life oh because Google's ripping that's what he's talking about okay because I I read this initially as like he quit he started a company and it was like went really poorly it's just funny he is building he's building the fastest way to post with postwrite it dot AI okay post all your social platforms in seconds oh maybe we could use that for something uh very funny he's like my idea was Gemini three Like, I was going to make a better Gemini. I thought Gemini 2.5 just wasn't quite there.

Thank you for tuning in to the show today, folks. We love you dearly, and we will see you tomorrow. Have a good evening. Cheers.