TBPN Live - Google Gemini Strikes Back, China Hits NVIDIA on Antitrust | Bill Bishop, Pete Shadbolt, Sadi Khan, Lukas Czinger, Kyle Samani

Episode Date: September 15, 2025

(00:42) - Google Gemini Strikes Back (01:59) - TBPN in the WSJ (04:31) - Google Gemini's Comeback Breakdown (36:15) - China Hits NVIDIA on Antitrust (41:42) - Bill Bishop, an entrepreneur... and former media executive, is the author of the Sinocism China Newsletter, which provides expert insights into Chinese politics and economics. In the conversation, he discusses China's antitrust investigation into Nvidia, highlighting the potential for significant fines and the strategic timing of the probe amid U.S.-China trade negotiations. He also examines the complexities surrounding TikTok's operations in the U.S., emphasizing the legal challenges and geopolitical considerations influencing the platform's future. (01:01:16) - Timeline Reactions (02:30:22) - Pete Shadbolt, co-founder and Chief Scientific Officer of PsiQuantum, a quantum computing company based in the Bay Area, discusses the company's journey from academic research to securing a $1 billion funding round aimed at building large-scale quantum computers. He highlights their focus on developing a million-qubit system by leveraging semiconductor manufacturing, partnerships with entities like GlobalFoundries, and collaborations with governments in Australia and the U.S. to establish quantum computing facilities. Shadbolt emphasizes the strategic importance of quantum computing, its potential applications in fields like chemistry and materials science, and the necessity of substantial investment and innovation to overcome technical challenges and achieve practical, error-corrected quantum systems. (02:44:43) - Sadi Khan, co-founder and CEO of Aven, discusses the company's innovative home equity-backed credit card, which offers homeowners the ability to secure lower interest rates and earn 2% unlimited cash back on all transactions. By streamlining the traditionally lengthy HELOC process to just 15 minutes through advanced automation, including remote wet signatures executed by robotic arms, Aven provides a seamless and efficient borrowing experience. Khan also highlights the company's recent Series E funding and emphasizes Aven's commitment to offering the lowest cost of capital to consumers, regardless of fluctuating interest rate environments. (02:51:41) - Lukas Czinger, Vice President of Operations, Automation, and Manufacturing at Divergent 3D, discusses the company's recent $290 million Series E funding round, which will enable the expansion of their Los Angeles campus and the establishment of new facilities across the U.S. He emphasizes the strategic importance of locating these facilities near key defense and automotive clients to enhance collaboration and logistics. Additionally, Czinger highlights the versatility of Divergent's digital manufacturing platform, capable of seamlessly producing diverse products without downtime, and shares updates on the Czinger 21C hypercar, noting multiple deliveries in the U.S. and Europe, with plans for future variants and models. (03:00:54) - Kyle Samani, co-founder and managing partner of Multicoin Capital, a leading cryptocurrency investment firm, discusses raising $1.65 billion in two weeks for Ford Industries, aiming to establish it as a top digital asset treasury company with aspirations of becoming a $50 billion publicly traded entity. He highlights the strategic team collaboration with Jump and Galaxy, emphasizes opportunities in mergers and acquisitions, and outlines plans to leverage capital market structures to enhance shareholder value. (03:11:47) - Timeline Reactions TBPN.com is made possible by: Ramp - https://ramp.comFigma - https://figma.comVanta - https://vanta.comLinear - https://linear.appEight Sleep - https://eightsleep.com/tbpnWander - https://wander.com/tbpnPublic - https://public.comAdQuick - https://adquick.comBezel - https://getbezel.com Numeral - https://www.numeralhq.comPolymarket - https://polymarket.comAttio - https://attio.com/tbpnFin - https://fin.ai/tbpnGraphite - https://graphite.devRestream - https://restream.ioProfound - https://tryprofound.comJulius AI - https://julius.aiturbopuffer - https://turbopuffer.comfal - https://fal.ai/Follow TBPN: https://TBPN.comhttps://x.com/tbpnhttps://open.spotify.com/show/2L6WMqY3GUPCGBD0dX6p00?si=674252d53acf4231https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/technology-brothers/id1772360235https://www.youtube.com/@TBPNLive

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 You're watching TVPN! Today's Monday, September 15, 2025. We are live from the TBPN Ultradome, the Temple of Technology, the Fortress of Finance, the Capital of Capital. Oh, we got some, we got some trust in the background. Got some trust. We're trust up. Trust up.
Starting point is 00:00:18 We have made another improvement to the TBPN Ultradome. Going to work on having more guests in person, more fun activities. We got a bunch more programs. It's going to be a great, great week, great month, great year, a decade, great life time. It's so good to be back. It is fantastic to be back. It's so hard to be away from the Ultradome.
Starting point is 00:00:38 It is. But we have some breaking news, of course. Gemini is at the top of the App Store charts. We have some of our own breaking news. Yeah, yeah. Actually, I don't know if we're not allowed to break this news yet. Dylan, are we good to break the news? We are good to break the news.
Starting point is 00:00:53 We're good to break the news. Let's tell everyone. So, we are going to be... having our first Mag 7 CEO on CBPN this week and he is none other than Mark Zuckerberg. You can see a totally real picture of him here. So we're going to be taking the show on the road Wednesday. We're going to be up in the bay live from MetaConnect. We're very excited. There's going to be a bunch of other guests tuning in. I will wait to share the exact names. But they'll be going out on our X and our substack over the next couple of days. So very, very excited for this one.
Starting point is 00:01:35 They have some crazy announcements and we'll be there on the ground, recording live. It's all part of the long con to get meta on ramp. Ram.com time to sit money, save both. Easy to use corporate cards, bill payments, accounting, and a whole lot more, all in one place. Go to ramp.com to get started. So in other Mag 7 news, Gemini is surging. Wait. What about the MAG podcast? Okay, we got to take me through it.
Starting point is 00:02:01 This is the other deck in other point. No, no, no. This is more important. This is amazing. They didn't put us in quotes. They didn't put us in quotes. They didn't put us in quotes. We made it.
Starting point is 00:02:11 We made it. We finally arrived. A lot of people have been putting TBPN in quotes. They're claiming that, like, you know. Oh, TBPN, whatever that means. Is that really the name of the show or is it something else? The journalist claimed historically that it was because we were a show, show.
Starting point is 00:02:30 Yes. But it really, we were reading between... I learned that when you're writing in English class back in high school, I learned that if it's a book title, you put it in italics. I thought quotes were only reserved for, you know, if you're not sure, and it's a quote from somebody else saying something, you don't want to put it in your own words, you don't trust the source necessarily. I always viewed quotes as something of a point of skepticism.
Starting point is 00:02:55 So it is fantastic to see that we have escaped the... the jail of quotes in the media. So very excited to this one. So appropriate that it happened to the Wall Street Journal, one of our favorite publications. We have our favorite ever. This is, we will, a lot of people like to make comments about the legacy media.
Starting point is 00:03:12 We will defend the Wall Street Journal with our lives. Randin Jacoby says, keep reading fellas, it's quote, TBPN in paragraph one. I'm looking at the screenshots, I see, no, no, paragraph one, two, three. I'm, I don't know, I see, I don't see any quotes at all. You got a different copy of the journal. Yeah, what's going on?
Starting point is 00:03:27 Kobe. Ran Jacoby, we're putting you in the truth zone. I don't know. Maybe they added quotes later or something. I don't know. But the copy that I have does not have it in quotes. So I'm happy and I'm sticking with it. I've screenshoted it and I'm taking a victory line. Anyways, for those that don't know, I hired Dylan at Party Round back in 2021. He was my right-hand man through the chaos of the ZERP era, the joy. We did a bunch of work together that was that prior to TPPN was
Starting point is 00:03:59 really the highlight of my career. So very excited to have him on the team behind the scenes helping us make the show better and better every day. Yeah, very excited. Only bigger and bigger things to keep. You have some news you'd like to talk about. Yeah, the tech news. Anyway, the main news is Restream. One live stream 30 plus destinations, multi-stream reach your audience wherever they are. Only possible this show is made possible because of Restream. We are, of course, built on the back of every stream. But the real news is Anjni Midha over at Andrews and Horowitz says the empire strikes back and shows a screenshot of worldwide Google Trends results for the past 90 days for Gemini versus ChatGPT. And you can see that Nanobanana launched late August and Gemini
Starting point is 00:04:51 has been surging in the worldwide results. And so I dug into this. I have a bunch of thoughts on what's going on with Google, DeepMind, and Gemini in particular. And then, Ageny actually followed up a week later on September 14th and said, The Empire Goes Bananas and shows that now Gemini has crossed ChatGPT in terms of worldwide search results, which is even, you know, I think it's an important metric to be tracking. Gemini is also at the top of the App Store charts right now. but uh it's such a funny dynamic it's like like you know google yeah runs a large you know the largest search in the world and then they're trying to get
Starting point is 00:05:38 their alternative to search higher in the on the search rankings than their competitor yes running the technology that they created yep yeah it is uh it is a knockout dragout fight in the uh the battle for the next AI platform um so i went and tried tried to get the even more up-to-date data from Google Trends. And it's true. Gemini is absolutely surging worldwide. And as of today, Gemini is significantly higher than ChatGPT.
Starting point is 00:06:09 Now, I think some of this is momentum-driven. I also need to check, is this related to astrology, because Gemini, of course, could be Gemini season. But Gemini season is in May and June. So it doesn't have anything to do with Gemini season, as far as I can tell. I should ask Gemini, what? What the best, like if I were running Gemini, the AI application, what would be the best time of the year astrologically to, to like, you know, send it on marketing?
Starting point is 00:06:38 Send it on marketing? Yeah, like, what am I most likely to experience success? Well, so I wanted to understand a little bit more about the search interest in what's actually going on here. So I went to Google Trends and I started to segment by different regions and different time periods. And if you go to the third slide, you'll see that in the United States, Gemini is seeing an uptick, but chat GPT is still dominant. And so you can see, so that is the worldwide data there, Jordy, you'll see. And then the next slide is this is for the United States. And so for the United States, chat GPT is still dominant.
Starting point is 00:07:19 You see this like up and down of peaks and troughs. I think those are weekends and I think that you see a lot more chat GPT usage during the week and then people kind of chill on the weekends, which is interesting dynamic. There's also school stuff. Yeah, that's a school factor. Back to work. Yes. And so. I do, I wonder what that data, I mean, you can't necessarily get that data for Google search itself because people aren't Googling Google.
Starting point is 00:07:48 They're not Google searching Google search. Yeah, that's a good point. But you have to imagine, like I probably use Google more on the weekdays. on the weekdays? Probably. Yeah, I think most people do. Yeah. And so I wanted to know what was driving the worldwide surge in Gemini traffic, scrolled around
Starting point is 00:08:02 to a couple different areas, India is absolutely spiking. So if you go to the next slide, you will see right there, look at that chart, Jordi. So Gemini is just kind of a flat line relative to Chachypt, and then just completely surged just in the last few days. And so I think that that's what's driving the overall trend in Gemini dominance. Because if you go to, on the next slide, I go to the United Kingdom. And the United Kingdom is similar to the U.S. seeing a little bit of an uptick in Gemini searches, but it's not completely overtaken chat GPT. So there's a few different narratives here. One could just be Google has stronger penetration in certain international countries and they're pushing different
Starting point is 00:08:48 things there with marketing or deals. There's a whole bunch of different dynamic. that can drive even just a B tests on how quickly a like how quickly are they routing you to that particular app like you forget that like when you have a billion users billions of users just setting the default user experience flow can route a ton of traffic to one thing all of a sudden so I got prompted I did a Google search this morning and I got prompted to use the AI search overviews no no no I got prompted AI mode AI mode does not count as Gemini that's not what we're talking about
Starting point is 00:09:21 here which is interesting but yes i mean it's all and i'm sure you go through the flow yeah so assume they were counting that as no no no so a i mode is a is is within the google search product jemini is its own product uh and and to be clear jemini is doing really well so uh qualitatively v o3 incredible i've made a bunch of fun videos everything from uh monster truck videos for my son to promo ads for what you know we do here at tbpn uh v o3 i was not a daily Gemini user. I had not paid Google any money for Gemini's pro plan. I was paying for the chat GPD plan. V-O3 got me to fork over $250 a month, which I think is probably around $500 a month now because I didn't cancel. And I'm very happy with that. Like it's been a good
Starting point is 00:10:09 value trade, and I feel like I'm getting access to a frontier model that I can't get anywhere else, and so it's worth every penny. Nanobanana has also produced incredible results. And a lot of people are citing the massive growth as driven by nanobanana. Now, I haven't been, I haven't been going bananas. Have you been going bananas lately? I've tried it a little bit. I just, I don't really have something in my workflow. It feels like nanobanana might almost be more useful if you're doing like professional level work. I've been sort of like interested in using it, but it hasn't become part of my daily workflow. I think when we're traveling,
Starting point is 00:10:51 you have a little less time to make memes. And yeah, maybe that's it. You probably would have. I did find that it was fantastic at that specific thing. You can, and I saw Dylan Patel post this. You can take a meme template and two images and just say, nanobanana, like fill it in. And it will just do it.
Starting point is 00:11:08 It'll just basically do the Photoshop of like, or like, you know, the layout to put the images over each other. And it just does it flawlessly. And so normally I would be, going to something. That seems to be enough to take Google from three to four trillion. I would agree. Normally I go to something on like image flip
Starting point is 00:11:24 and then I have to like type in the text and then put in the images and it's this web UI that's like decent, it works pretty well. But being able to just do that all in a chat box, it seems really cool. Anyway, quantitatively, Gemini is crushing. It has 483,000 ratings. A little hot on the levels there.
Starting point is 00:11:45 I love that. Oh, Bobby in the chat says it's Google's birthday. So happy birthday, Google. We are celebrating you today. Ben, it's like, yeah, it was a little hot. So in the iOS App Store, Gemini is now number one on the product of the charts. Google celebrates its birthday on September 27th, but September 15th was when the Google.com domain name was registered. Okay, okay.
Starting point is 00:12:15 Domains are more important than anything else. So I agree today's, today's Google's birthday in my book. So to comp Gemini and ChatGPT, Gemini, about half a million ratings, ChatGPT has almost four million ratings. So ChatGPT is still the dominant app in the US iOS App Store, but Gemini is certainly growing. And there's an open question, you know, I'm still noodling on like, how much is the the Gemini growth driven by nanobanana versus back to school, back to work, versus like
Starting point is 00:12:51 international efforts and stuff. Tyler, do you have a, do you have a thesis? Yes, I'm looking back at the, I don't, we don't have your mic right now. Let's turn up, can we turn up Tyler's levels? Hello, hello, hello. Just yell. Okay. There we go. Okay, yeah, now you're going to go. So, so I'm looking at chat, chat gbt when uh four oh image came out and it was march 25th um if you look at the trends there's like literally no spike in google search traffic for images in chat gpti for if you just look up chat gpte yeah there's no like you can't tell when image came out when it's like very surprising and you're specifically referring to like the studio ghibli moment that's super viral yeah yeah got it interesting
Starting point is 00:13:34 yeah so i like it makes me think that like maybe the gemini stuff is not actually that related to Yeah, what do you think is driving the, like, the massive growth on this particular chart, on the Google trends? It's probably just that like Google is pushing it really hard. I don't think there's really rate limits. The models are like pretty cheap. Yeah, it might be, it might be free tier in India pushing hard. Somebody account hello in the chat says there's an Instagram trend in India with Gemini and girls wearing saris. That can be enough to send it.
Starting point is 00:14:11 Maybe. Maybe. But yeah, there's so many ways that Google can drive adoption of the product. It always felt like they were holding back on really opening the flood games around Gemini. Yeah, yeah. And we saw some posts from folks who work on the Gemini app saying, like, the GPUs are on fire,
Starting point is 00:14:27 the TPUs are on fire this weekend. They're trying to keep it up. I've always thought the gap in functionality was pretty narrow between Chachapy and Gemini. Like both have fast and free options. Both have reasoning models, both have deep research modes, both have image generation. ChatGPT is still sticky for a lot of people because it's just, it's just default. Like chat GPT is on my home row on my phone, but Gemini is just one one app above on the homepage.
Starting point is 00:14:58 So I'm kind of going back and forth. But the, but I think, I think the wake up call of like the Empire Strikes Back is really just like what does it actually mean to be an empire and we saw a little bit of information come out from Demis the founder and see now the CEO of Deep Mind he was talking to David Friedberg at the all-in summit and he said something like they have 5,000 PhDs on staff which is just just an insane amount of PhDs they're like the docky sign of hiring PhDs you need to put them all in a football stadium just to just to talk about the plans
Starting point is 00:15:37 So OpenAI has six, around 7,000 employees. Yeah. And DeepMind has like, it's a similar organization, yeah. 5,000 PhDs. Yeah. And I think the reason why you see folks like Bucco Capital guy being so bullish on Google is that they're, they're already vertically integrated. They're already a hyper-scaler. So they had their own data centers.
Starting point is 00:16:00 You just had to look at their, look at all the different parts of their business. data advantage the distribution advantage you know you can go on and on and on and on yeah ben thompson had a great uh post about AI in the big five so the five big tech companies that are taking AI really seriously for google they have the best infrastructure they have a good model they have no partners they have the best data they have distribution on android devices search google cloud platform the core business chat chat bots are disruptive to search this could be bad, but it also could be like, well, it's the whole organization needs to be awake because it's obviously a threat. You can't just sit back and be, oh, yeah, that'll probably benefit us.
Starting point is 00:16:42 Like, you have to move. And scarcity risk, data feedback loops diminished, disruptive or sustaining. It could be disruptive. New business potential in the cloud, says Ben Thompson. So there, so I do think that the Google Bulls might have over rotated a little bit. against open AI. I saw one quote that accused Chachapit of quote, losing at least $2 for every $1 it spends, which I just don't think make sense from like an accounting perspective. You can lose $2 for every $1 you make. But if you spend a dollar as a startup and you lose two, like what what what how does that work? Like can you imagine just think about like the actual financials of a business and think about like, okay,
Starting point is 00:17:33 Our expenses were $1 million. And our balance sheet went down by $2 million. Like what would have to happen? I don't even understand how that's possible. Can you think of a way that wages? Does not just mean you're spending $3 million to generate a million dollars? No, no, no, no.
Starting point is 00:17:47 No, not revenue. They're saying, so losing $2 for every $1 they spent. So expenses are $1 million. Losses are $2 million. How does that happen? Capax, maybe? I don't know you're saying how can your cost be bigger than your revenue no no no it's not revenue how can your costs be bigger than your expenses oh like like this quote says losing two
Starting point is 00:18:13 dollars for every one dollar they spend they spend not make I understand lose two dollars for every one dollar you make that makes sense you have three dollars in expenses very easy arithmetic I think do you think they just I think it might just been a typo yeah I don't know it might have been a typo or maybe somebody that doesn't understand accounting but it just like mathematically it's very very confusing to me and so I think people are sort of like running with this a little bit too much also Brian Merchant wrote that open AI fails to have a discernible business model and I think that's just crazy like the business model is extremely discernible it's it's freemium like
Starting point is 00:18:51 there's a free tier and then there's a paid tier like you might not think that the business model is super profitable or it's gonna work or they're gonna win but like their business model is not some crazy oh I don't understand how they make money. It's like, it's freemium. There's a free version, then there's a paid version. And they make money off the paid version. And they're investing a bunch and they're losing money. And, you know, this happens a lot in companies. They lose money and then they make money. And discovers that a business. Yeah. And so I think people are like, are like maybe getting over their skis. At least some people are getting over their skis and like, oh, like, no one even
Starting point is 00:19:20 knows how open AI makes money or what their business model. Maybe it's something about like paying to like train the model and they're paying all this money. They're spending money to train the model. And then they're still losing money on the model. Yeah, this was the Dario. thing where he was like, we, you know, we spend a billion dollars to train it. And then that billion dollar training run makes $2 billion over the next two years. And so you add all those up. Those are all good. But then you wind up with this like endless pit of money in the short, like in the overall business. But if each business individually was, was very good and made a lot of sense. And then also just on the business model side, it's like, it's like they hired Fiji
Starting point is 00:19:54 Simo. They're doing ads. Like semi-analysis broke it all down. They're going to take a cut of every, of all the commerce that happens in OpenAI, ChatGPT queries. That account, that that supplement brand that we were talking about Friday, that's just like printing cash because they're ranked highest in Chatchipete. Yeah. That will not continue forever.
Starting point is 00:20:14 And so like it seems like my takeaway is like Google's executing well. They're seeing a lot of growth on Gemini. They're doing very well there. But it's not like Open AI doesn't make any sense. Or ChatchipT is just like, oh, no one knows how it works. It's not this mysterious thing. Opening Eye is still bigger on Google trends than Gemini in the US.
Starting point is 00:20:38 They're still making money from pro plans and plus plans. And then they're also going to start taking a cut of commerce that happens on top of Chachypiti queries. So I don't know. Overall, I mean, it seems that Google is in a great position to stay in the game for the next technological wave. At the very least, they'll be able to play in AI duopolis or oligopolis, like
Starting point is 00:21:00 they do with Android and iOS, they don't capture a ton of the profits there, but they capture a ton of the business value. And also with Google Cloud Platform, it's an oligopoly between Azure. My read on Gemini doing well is not that it's bearish for Open AI at all. No. It means that it's an extremely important market, and there's going to be a number of players that go after it. Do I think that there's going to be 10 different consumer AI, you know, multi-purpose consumer AI applications that are that are amazing businesses know but there's going to be a handful yeah totally the there was another chart that was going absolutely vertical and it's the adoption of Chinese LLMs did you see
Starting point is 00:21:43 this so we do we got to give them some credit we got to give them some credit light so open open source models from China are set to overtake the US as downloads surge in use across hugging face the American ecosystem has stalled in growth. And the flip is happening right now. And so you can see that Hugging Face downloads for USA-based open-source LLM models growing, I mean, completely vertically, very exponential growth there, but then China caught up and the flip is happening right now. And it's interesting. I mean, there's one take that's like open source AI will kind of cease to matter in the future and it's not going to be that big of a deal, it doesn't really matter.
Starting point is 00:22:29 And what's the argument there? Because I could see, I could see while, you know, 10, 20 years ago, companies making the same case around open source software broadly. In the long run, open source is not going to matter. And yet it's still super foundational too. It is, I think the argument goes something like just the value capture around it. So yes, if you, yes, Linux is like dominant and Linux has a massive install base, but companies that have built their business around Linux, like Red Hat,
Starting point is 00:23:05 red hat, is like a unicorn, maybe like worth 10 billion at various points in time. It's been like taken private and taken public and whatnot. But Red Hat is like one hundredth the size of Android or Microsoft or Mac or Mac or iOS. like the other even even I mean Mac built on Unix so there's like a lot of lineage there but a lot of the like the closed source operating systems have captured like 99% of the value and so I think the the the hot take on open source not being that valuable is just that there's not that much value capture that happens even if like there is pretty wide adoption I don't know
Starting point is 00:23:50 if there's more to it than that then there's just like the who had that take that was like the open source, I think this was Tyler Cowan, he said, like, the open source models, like, well, if they're distilled from American models, even if they're, like, Chinese, they still, like, believe all the American things, and they wind up, like, they wind up believing in free speech and believing in American values
Starting point is 00:24:11 just because, like, they've been, like, trained on GPT5, exactly, yeah, and trade on the American internet. But my question is, like, how seriously is Google taking open source right now? They have the open weights, Gemma line of open source models. Do you have an idea here, Tyler? I mean, yeah, Google just has Gemma. Those are mostly like pretty small models.
Starting point is 00:24:33 They're used a lot in like mechanistic interpretability stuff, so it's just like kind of like toy models. Sure. But and then there's like open AI, they have their own. I mean, Meta's really the only like big player in open source in the US. Yeah. My take on this is that it feels like there is a, there is a crown in Washington, D.C. that is waiting to land on some big tech executives head for just dominating the American open source AI narrative. And obviously, that was OpenAI's
Starting point is 00:25:08 branding for a long time. Then they went closed source. They have an open source model now, but they're not known as like the leading open source lab, right? The leading open source lab is arguably Deepseek or Alibaba with Quinn. But you could imagine, that you could do a whole victory tour, whole victory lap in D.C. over saying, like, hey, I'm the American open source champion. And so I wonder if Google will go for that
Starting point is 00:25:35 or if Mark Zuckerberg at Meta will go for that with the next release of Lama and say, hey, I'm still taking this seriously. There's been a lot of rumblings about, like, oh, is meta backing off of open source? I think John Ludig wrote this. It already leaked. They had a conversation.
Starting point is 00:25:50 There were conversations internally, allegedly around, hey, is this actually important or do we just want to deliver value for our own customer? Yeah, exactly. So, yeah, can they keep, can they keep justifying the CAP-X and then open-sourcing the results and then handing those, handing out the freebies? Anyway, did we want to read through some of these, this post from Zyfer? These, this format has been going like gigaviral. Have you noticed that? Every, every third post is this, it's like the four-chamble. Google in 2017. Small team drops, quote unquote, attention is all you need. Execs nod politely. Go back to selling ads for socks.
Starting point is 00:26:30 Let Transformer gather dust for five years like vintage Beanie Baby. B. Nome, Shazir, O.G. Wizard. Quits, builds AI, boyfriend, app, character, AI. Millions of lonely hearts pay $9.99 to eD8 to B from near. Google HR. Any chance you want to come back? Shazir, busy. My EGF is calling. I don't think this is what happened. I don't think this is what happened at all. but it's funny, funny revisionist history. 2020, opening eye drops chat chbtee.
Starting point is 00:26:57 World loses its mind. Google stock does a bungee jump. Sundar holds all hands, guys. We need a response by Q2. Team ships barred in three weeks, using 12 interns, 2,000 TPUV4s in pure panic. Bard hallucinates the earth is flat. Did that actually happen?
Starting point is 00:27:14 I don't remember that. I remember there were some, I didn't use Bard. I kind of missed the name Bard. Bard was kind of a great name. But there were so many. There was Palm. And Google was like sort of promoting like their internal research and their external stuff. So they had like product names and then also model names and the model naming convention.
Starting point is 00:27:37 It's like way overstated to say that opening eyes the only one with confusing model name architectures because Google had the exact same thing going on with like with Palm and Bard and all these different. Even now they have, it's like Gemini 2.0 Flash light. And then is like, is Flash better than light? Or like Pro 5 is worse than? It's a right of passage to have naming. You have to go through it before you actually just release the one good product, which would probably just be Google.com.
Starting point is 00:28:09 Like, no, like, I remember a decade ago, people used to analyze, like, the updates to the Google.com algorithm. them. There was one release that was called like Penguin or something. I forget what it was called, but it changed the way search results ranked, and it was like disastrous for a bunch of companies that had built SEO around the previous architecture. And then when Google shipped this change, it like decimated a whole bunch of businesses. But it goes back and forth. But anyway, Bard was a good name. Maybe they'll bring it back at some point. But I think Gemini's cooking. I think Gemini is going to be around for a long time. And I do think those, I do think go model router and I think though the the we will not be seeing point fives very long
Starting point is 00:28:52 realistically all these products probably go to an annual release cycle and it should just be yeah I'm using Gemini 2025 2026 2027 like a car anyway you want to continue with this Shizier finally answers HR's 47th email it's funny again of course this is not how it works not not works BARD anyways fine but I want my own parking spot, an unlimited LeCroy, return, waves hand, Gemini 2 and two and two and a half drop. Context window so big it can summarize a Bible in your group chat. Google processing 980 trillion tokens a month equal to 40% of human SMS traffic. That's crazy if it's real. That is wild. Someone sneezes nano banana into the play store overnight. It's number one app turns
Starting point is 00:29:37 your self-eat. I'm not going to read that last part. I'm not going to read that last part, folks. Go find it yourself. But I asked, how would Gemini the app do in September astrologically to Gemini? From an astrological perspective, September is a complex and transformative month for Gemini. While it may not have seen the same effortless flow as in Gemini season, it presents a significant period of growth learning and necessary recalibration. It's just like the most classic, like astrological like generalization. So like Gemini is generating this and then reading it and being like, wow, that's
Starting point is 00:30:15 That's actually... It's very funny. Anyway, let me tell you about Figma.com. Think bigger, build faster. Figma helps design and development teams build great products together. Great to see John Exley back in the chat. We're wondering where you're working on.
Starting point is 00:30:32 World famous now. It's been featured in Business Insider. Thank you so much to John Exley. Yes, TBPN was in Business Insider this morning. Yes. John got the quote. I think everyone in this chat is a business insider. A lot of the folks were featured in there,
Starting point is 00:30:51 but Julia Hornstein broke down. She, I think, explained and described aura farming and a number of other. I think that that was overall great piece. I think she kind of missed the definition of oral farming. We'll get Tyler to put it in the truth zone. That was the one thing where I read. I was like, I don't know if that fully fits Tyler's definition.
Starting point is 00:31:13 of ore farming, but it was funny to see it printed in the business insider. John's best quote was, John Axley, that is. I look at TBPN as an existence of the proof of heaven. Thank you. As existence proof of heaven. Thank you, John Ashley. We appreciate you. We appreciate it.
Starting point is 00:31:38 Anyway, Ageny mid-husband on absolute terror. He posted that AI is eating software across the handful of frontier AI startups that he's a board member in. Year to date, sales have gone from 1.3 billion to 8 billion. Meanwhile, publics are bleeding the single most rapid reallocation of value from legacy companies to startups in history. And that's why we're to partner with so many of the startups that are taking it to the public. I wonder, I can't see what any of these companies. companies are, so it's hard to give that great of analysis here. One of them is Adobe. Adobe is up 33% this year.
Starting point is 00:32:19 It's a $150 billion company. Yeah, I just wonder how much of these are selling off because of the overall narrative that the Gen AI, the labs are basically going to be able to just generate these companies from scratch. It's that, but it's also that there really is significant pricing pressure. This is what we were talking to Jim Kramer about
Starting point is 00:32:40 with regard to Salesforce. Like, Salesforce is a seat-based model, and they need to shift to an outcomes-based, value-based pricing. And that is something that is hard to do in the short term. Well, here's something. So this morning, Trump jumped on true social. He said, subject to SEC approval, companies and corporation should no longer be forced to report, to report, he put it in quotes. On a quarterly basis. He's a, quote, enthusiast, quarterly reporting, but rather to report on a six-month basis.
Starting point is 00:33:16 This will save money and allow managers to focus on properly running their companies. Did you ever hear the statement that, quote, China has 50 to 100-year view on management of a company, whereas we run our companies on a quarterly basis? Not good. They still have quarterly reporting requirements, don't they? I don't know. It's just more of like a – I imagine if companies only had to report every 50 to 100 years, though. Could be pretty good.
Starting point is 00:33:41 Can you imagine waiting? He's like, you have your first Google, your first Palantir earnings as a young man. You know, you just spawned. You're like, maybe earnings. I'm riding with Palantir. We'll see, we'll see what, you know, right? It's like, it's like you get your, that one earnings report decides whether you retire. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Starting point is 00:34:01 Like at our last earnings, like Google, Google made. Our last earnings before the internet. Google generated a hundred billion dollars in net income last year. Imagine, imagine going from like the IPO prospectus. Yeah, yeah, we generated 20 million in net income to being like, yep, we're ready to update you. It's been 20 years, $100 billion in net income. We've done very well.
Starting point is 00:34:24 It's a beat, green candle. Anyway, regardless of what happens with the SEC. You gotta stay compliant, you gotta get on Vanta.com. Automate compliance, manage risk, improve trust, continuously. Ventus trust management platform takes the manual work out of your security and compliance process, and replaces it with continuous automation,
Starting point is 00:34:43 whether you're pursuing your first framework. It's so funny to think, like, you know, DJT has his public company, truth social. He's just like, ah, I'm getting really sick of this. What if I could cut the management teams, you know, sort of. I do, you know, one, you know, I can see there being some, if this actually gets rolled out, there could be some bad side effects, Maybe companies get sloppier, right?
Starting point is 00:35:10 Like the quarterly cycles, like a forcing function for, you know, just making, you know, continuous progress in running a tight ship and all these things. But if the burden of being public goes down, maybe more companies go public earlier, right? Yeah, maybe. And maybe, yeah, CEOs that would just have. But again, I just, I'm not sure that it would be... Since we cover earnings, we should be strongly against this. Because half as much content would be devastating to us.
Starting point is 00:35:47 I mean, there's... I mean, I don't know. There's plenty of it. Yeah, we don't really cover earnings that closely. But it does make for fun, a fun news cycle, getting new data points and new earnings calls. But maybe the podcast world can fill in for that, you know. Do a quarterly podcast tour and chat about your business.
Starting point is 00:36:07 Less quiet periods for sure, right? So be good on that. Anyway, in other news, the Wall Street journalist is reporting that China has said that Nvidia violated antitrust law. Regulators move against the chip company comes during Washington, Beijing trade talks. We're going to have Bill Bishop join the stream in seven minutes. China said an initial probe found Nvidia violated the country's anti-monopoly law, heightening pressure on Washington during the latest round of US China trade talks that ended Monday. Beijing's antitrust regulator cited the violations in connection with Nvidia's acquisition of an Israeli company that was completed in 2020. The regulator said the investigation was continuing and didn't elaborate. Beijing approved
Starting point is 00:36:52 the deal after Nvidia agreed to conditions, including guaranteeing the supply of its chips to China. But since 2020, the U.S. government has blocked Nvidia and other American chip vendors from selling many of their top flight artificial intelligence chips to China. Nvidia said it complied with law. We will continue to cooperate with all relevant government agencies as they evaluate the impact of export controls. Beijing's move came just hours before Treasury Secretary Scott Besson told reporters in Madrid that U.S. and Chinese negotiators
Starting point is 00:37:22 had reached a framework deal on TikTok following two days of trade talks. If you're not familiar or you haven't been following it that closely, the TikTok divestiture has been pushed a number of times. We're just reaching the end of the most recent 90-day hold. Yes, I believe it's Wednesday. We have two days left. And so U.S. and Chinese negotiators have been figuring out a framework for that. I believe Pollymarket has Oracle and Larry Ellison still in the lead.
Starting point is 00:37:52 I don't know if you want to pull up the latest data there on what will happen to TikTok. But it is funny that we're hearing so much more about Larry Ellison with the open AI deal, which we're going to go into tomorrow. It's still sitting at a 43% chance that a TikTok sale is announced in 2025. Okay. Yeah, might happen. Of course, there's way more to it. What does the sale actually mean?
Starting point is 00:38:19 What will? So, oh, the chart is spiking with a sale. So, yeah, unclear what exactly what pieces. the business would they sell? There's always been this nervousness around what if they sell the cloud infrastructure contract and the inference? And they say, yeah, you guys can run the app. We decide the algorithm. And of course, a lot of people who are nervous about the effect that TikTok is having on the American populace think it's actually the training of the model that matters a lot more. If our, you know, if we were in a in a cold war with a country
Starting point is 00:38:52 and they owned one of our most popular newspapers, we said, hey, we don't really want you doing this and they were like, oh, it's fine, you can deliver the newspaper. Yeah, you can take over the printing of it. Yeah, you can print it. We're still going to decide the words that go in. But you can print it. We're going to decide what's on the front page. We'll let you.
Starting point is 00:39:08 Yeah. Anyone can post to this newspaper, but we're going to decide the sorting of the articles. Like, what makes it to the front page is important. And so control over the algorithm should be relevant. I've talked to some AI researchers who have said that it might be possible to run like a secondary algorithm on top of what else else. on top of what algorithm gets shipped over, essentially fine-tuning it as it comes over.
Starting point is 00:39:31 So, you know, the TikTok algorithm comes over, and it's prioritizing one thing, and then you run a secondary feed on top. And this happens a lot with, like, like, different, you know, you might have a secondary algorithm that's running for, does this violate the, does this violate the terms of service of the app? Is this adult content or something? It might still rank very high,
Starting point is 00:39:54 but if it triggers the filter, deprioritized after the fact. So there are different ways to go about it and certainly not having the data immediately exfiltrated. Seems like a net win, but it is a complex topic. So we'll continue to follow the story as it develops. The two sides, the US and China, are running up against a Wednesday deadline to do a deal to allow the popular video sharing app to continue operating in the United States. And it's crazy how big of a story this was what last year, maybe the year before, everyone was beating the drum. on ban TikTok and it's kind of just melted in the background people don't really think about it anymore
Starting point is 00:40:33 It's just kind of like become it's falling out of the news cycle anyway Invidia has become perhaps the highest profile business a business caught in the crossfire of the trade dispute between the world's two biggest economies the company sells the most powerful chips In December China's antitrust regulator the state administration for market regulation opened a probe into invidia's seven billion billion dollar acquisition of the in israeli networking gear maker melanox technologies which i believe was a fantastic acquisition i think they made a ton of money off that based on what they wound up selling because they bought this company before the ai boom and then networking gear became incredibly important as they built out these massive data centers with invidia GPUs and so a week
Starting point is 00:41:16 earlier the biden administration ratcheted up controls on china to acts china's access to high-end chips antitrust lawyers familiar with the case said invidia was in a tough spot because it had to hold supply of its most advanced chips to China to comply with the U.S. export controls, but that opened it up to criticism from Beijing. We will talk to Bill Bishop, who is in the re-stream waiting room about everything that's going on in China with regard to Nvidia and elsewhere. So let's bring in Bill Bishop from the stream waiting room when we're out of checking. How are you? Good. How are you? I'm fantastic. How are you? Have a good weekend. I'm good. I had a great weekend. I have to say thank you. Of course. And I have to say, Tashi's Lubbubu. Yes. And I will, I will say that TPPN, you,
Starting point is 00:41:59 you top tick the Lubbubu bubbles. Yes. That's what we're here for. Since you said you were sending this, I think Pop Mart stock is down like 20%. So it's good job. Go. We did, we did say we were buying it so your dog could rip it apart. Yeah. I actually examined it and decided there might be some toxic pieces. So I'm keeping it on. So. That is smart. That is so smart. Yeah. That is so smart.
Starting point is 00:42:26 That's great. Anyway, we were just reading through this, the latest news on the China saying that Nvidia violated antitrust law. I was wondering if you had any thoughts. And then we can kind of go into just generally give us the update on what you've been talking about on your fantastic blog, sinusism, and then also Sharp China, which is your podcast, which everyone should go subscribe to. It's in the CERTECREA bundle.
Starting point is 00:42:53 It's fantastic. But did you see this news? What was your take on the, on the NVIDIA antitrust debate going on in China? So it's interesting timing. It relates to this Melanox acquisition from a few years ago. And that NVIDIA had agreed to certain terms.
Starting point is 00:43:10 I think most were public. I think at least one term was not disclosed. And now the SAMR, which is the anti-monopoly group, is saying that they're not disclosed. violated one of the at least one of the provisions and the timing of course is not coincidental right it dropped just as the US and China negotiators were meeting in Madrid it comes two days or three days after the announcement of investigation to the dumping of analog chips as well as discrimination in
Starting point is 00:43:41 the sort of blocking of sales of certain other chips and so I think this is one I think Navidia technically could be in a lot of trouble because if they are found to be violating their agreement I believe they can be penalized up to 10% of their global revenue in addition and then have that be multiplied two to five times so they could be looking at several billions of dollars several billion dollars of fines from the Chinese government if it proceeds to its conclusion and they're found to be in violation of these of the agreement you know my guess is that this the timing is again not coincidental and it is it is part of a way to further encourage NVIDIA and the U.S. government to pull back on export
Starting point is 00:44:29 controls. And, you know, clearly, Nvidia is already motivated to do that. This may motivate them more. And whether or not then the Chinese government uses this as part of this broader discussion around export controls, that's not clear. Now, in the previous segment you were talking about TikTok, what was interesting in these discussions was from the statement so far from the U.S. side, they said that the Chinese tried to bring in export controls or things,
Starting point is 00:44:53 but the U.S. side was solely focused on TikTok. And so, you know, but then they're going to keep talking and they're going to extend the deadline for the imposition of additional tariffs, and they're just going to keep negotiating. And so I think that this is all part of the position on the Chinese side to push back on the U.S. government. The announcement last Friday of this investigation
Starting point is 00:45:15 to dumping of analog chips is probably, the Chinese getting ahead of what's to be expected of this 232 investigation from the US trade representative's office around legacy chips from China. And so there's just a lot of moving pieces. I don't think Nvidia is in any trouble immediately because of this investigation, but it just makes their prospects in China a little murkier. And again, I think one of the sort of waypoints for investors to look at is assuming President Trump approves this monitoring. Blackwell chip though I think it's the B30 that I'm the video is trying to create the cell of the China it's much better than the H20 it's not as good as Blackwell
Starting point is 00:45:55 but it's much better than anything that the the Chinese can make anytime soon if the Trump administration says yes in video will will grant you licenses does the Chinese side actually start buying or do they do what they did with the H20 and basically say we're not going to buy and we still don't know why they don't want to buy the H20s but it certainly doesn't look at that that wasn't a good outcome for invidia yeah it feels like there's definitely like multi-party interests here with the CCP maybe not wanting a bunch of chips to come in from invidia because they want to spur their their domestic homegrown chip manufacturing business and then but then the companies alibaba and
Starting point is 00:46:34 deep seek like these companies just want the best chips to actually compete and so there's there's like a tension there is that kind of the correct narrative no that certainly is how has how i'm I look at it and I think that, you know, ultimately, and that's why I said, you know, if Trump administration approves the B-30 and China still says no, then I think the answer will be that the party, the sort of security forces, the party forces have decided that they are going to just rip off the Band-Aid and try and move faster towards indigenousization of the chips. If it turns out that actually they start buying B30s in bulk, then maybe the H20 rejection was effectively employed. It said, no, no, we want the better stuff, right? And so they set up this sort of made it look like there's some confusion or, you know, but ultimately it's a benefit to Nvidia.
Starting point is 00:47:28 We just don't know at this point. One of the big questions, too, is, you know, certainly a company that would want NVIDIA to, in Chinese companies, to not buy NVIDIA would be Huawei, right? because Huawei has the Ascend series. They're the ones who claim they have potentially the best potential ultimate competitor to Vivida chips is whether or not Huawei has actually been over-promising what they've been able to make, both in terms of actual capabilities and also in terms of production volumes. So there are some whispers that the Huawei was sort of blowing smoke up towards the top of the system,
Starting point is 00:48:00 that they're further ahead than they are. Do you think there are certain members of the CCP and the party broadly that are, extremely AGI-I-pilled, and then others that are just thinking, like, you know, this is an extending technology for the Internet, and it's going to, we're going to develop, you know, valuable services and software with it, but we're not building machine God. So it's okay if we get sort of set back, if we set ourselves back, you know, five or so years because it's not, you know, necessarily critical to national security. That's a, that's a great and key question. And I think you look at, I think it was last week or the week before, the Chinese issued this AI-plus
Starting point is 00:48:42 action plan, which really is more about how to bring AI into a whole bunch of different sectors. A big focus on industrial applications, not at all the EGI pill. It's really basically how to make AI part of society. Business efficiency, increase governing efficiency, make it better for the police, right? Get AI models for the police to do better predictive policing and better social governance, improve education, improve the health care system. Not at all. They don't need the Ferrari of AI models. They don't need the Ferrari of chips. They need good enough. And the question then is, at least on the open source models in China, like Quinn, like the Deep Seek, are they good enough
Starting point is 00:49:22 for what the Chinese need? And are the chips that they're now starting to make in more capacity and more volume? Are they going to be good enough for what they need? And that ultimately I think is, you know, if the answer is yes, then Nvidia is probably screwed in China. If the answer is know, then they still have a bit of runway. Give us the update on TikTok. It feels like everyone was, there was like an odd coalition on the left and the right. Like last year, everyone was like banned TikTok. It felt like it was a fever pitch.
Starting point is 00:49:52 It was a rallying cry for tech execs. And it's like everyone had a good reason to want to ban it. Like the, you know, a lot of the tech leaders compete with TikTok, whether YouTube Reels or, you know, or. X or X or shorts on Instagram. And then there were the security and the China Hawks. There were so many people that were saying like, yes. And then the narrative kind of turned to like, well, Trump kind of liked TikTok and it helped him get elected.
Starting point is 00:50:18 And he felt like there was a groundswell of support on TikTok. And so maybe he wasn't worried about it. But now we've like kicked it out a couple of old. Yeah. And then the new kind of potential emerged of the cloud contracts, which. Yeah. And that felt like the example, I don't know if you heard, but the example we gave is like, if you had a national, you know, rival,
Starting point is 00:50:40 geopolitical rival, and they owned a popular newspaper in your country, and you didn't like that. And they said, well, it's okay. We'll let you print the newspaper and we'll let you do, like, physically distribute it. You'd be like, well, it's not really enough because I want to control,
Starting point is 00:50:53 I don't want you controlling what's in the headline and what's on the front page and how the, you know. Yeah. And it feels like if we end up with a scenario where like Oracle gets a big, even bigger cloud contract from ByteDance and that's the end of it. That doesn't feel like it's resolved kind of the key issues that the real hawks were worried about.
Starting point is 00:51:12 Well, so a few months ago, I had a conversation with one of the drafters of the law that effectively banned TikTok if they didn't meet certain conditions. And this person just said, you know, the only thing we didn't contemplate was a president who didn't enforce the law. And so what's been happening is the extensions that President Trump has been giving, none of them are legal, right? That they are completely blatantly in violation of the law doesn't matter, right? And so now, though, the question is, in this particular, you know, today we got the news that they apparently have some framework deal, Trump and Xi Jinping are going to talk about it on Friday, is whether or not the framework deal involves both the bite dance share going below 20% of Nuco or whatever they're going to call it, and that the Chinese side, the bite dance has no input, no connection to the algorithm. And so, because the law is very clear. And actually a few months ago, some of the investors in this mooted sort of consortium that was going to create this new code of buyout TikTok U.S., they were trying, they were lobbying on Capitol Hill to get a sentence inserted in any bill that would take it that effectively indemnified them against breaking the law because they understood, you know, they're potentially putting billions of dollars at risk. They are smart enough that they don't want to actually do that in a deal that technically is in violation of a law on the books that survived a Supreme Court challenge.
Starting point is 00:52:34 right, nine to zero. And so, you know, that this is, I think if what we've, and we don't have really any details yet of what the Chinese and the US sides agree to today in Madrid. But if it turns out that the Chinese side, the bite dance is gonna go below 20%, and for example, the US, the new code is gonna have to rewrite the algorithm,
Starting point is 00:52:56 then it probably, and there's no data connection, there's no technical connection to China. It's logically, physically separated from anything that touches China, then that deal probably works. But then what is TikTok? Who's going to write the new algorithm? I mean, last I heard machine language engineers
Starting point is 00:53:11 are expensive and hard to find these days. Well, yeah, and we have some of the smartest. Yeah, we have some of the smartest engineers in the world that YouTube and Instagram, like trying to make the algorithm as good as people report TikTok is. Right. I think that. Yeah, I wonder how much of an olive branch
Starting point is 00:53:30 can be given on the cap table because there's a lot of American investors who invested in Bight Dance or TikTok have huge stakes. Jeff Yass at Susquehanna is a good example. 15% owners share. Bill Ford at General Atlantic. Yeah, General Atlantic.
Starting point is 00:53:44 And so there's a very neutral outcome here where you say, oh, well, like, you have this massive stake. We don't want you to take this huge write-down. You can just have an even bigger stake in the U.S. entity. And so that's probably even more valuable. And you get your money out of China, so you have more liquidity. You can IPO the company.
Starting point is 00:54:02 there's a lot of things that you can do there and it's not it's not value destructive I'm one of the things it probably does is it probably unlocks if this deal gets done it probably helps helps if Bight Dan wants Bight Dan wants to helps them sort of clear the path to an IPO in Hong Kong sure right which which again the US of all the investors I mean Bight Tants I think in the last private round was valued like 500 billion right so there's a lot of money at stake here you mentioned Oracle you know to assuage US regulator's concerns Oracle and Bight Dan's had gotten together they done this thing
Starting point is 00:54:31 called Project Texas, where they were going to segment out all the U.S. user data. They proposed that they would actually review the code, the algorithm code, even though the algorithm would be updated from China. They would have engineers who could go through the code and make sure it wasn't being manipulated. That didn't satisfy the national security concerns. That's one of the reasons why the law was passed last April in April 2024. There had been talk over this year of a Project Texas 2.0 to kind of cut a deal, but ultimately, I think there were enough people in the GOP on the Hill who made it clear to the Trump administration that actually that wasn't going to fly because it still was in violation of the law that passed last April.
Starting point is 00:55:13 And so really, I think, again, we'll see what has come out of this. What's interesting, too, is how the U.S. side made this TikTok the focus of the negotiations this time, not soybeans. There's an article in the Washington, New York Times today, about how soybean farmers were about to go bankrupt because China's not buying soybeans. that wasn't the focus. The focus was TikTok. And because, you know, think about it, there's only upside for the president, right? And the investors, because now if TikTok is saved, TikTok is beholden to the president. It's another algorithm that probably, you know, has favorable feelings towards President Trump. He's helped a bunch of big investors, including Oracle. It's, it's an interesting moment when, like you said, a year and a half ago, people were going nuts on across the aisle about how dangerous TikTok was. And now it's like, okay. whatever as long as it abides by the law whatever give me the broader update on uh what's happening in beijing and see jing ping's like grip on power there's been some rumors that maybe he's losing control there's always rumors um like how are things just overall looking there he was recently caught on a hot mic saying he's going to live to 150 which i think is like a very
Starting point is 00:56:25 watching a little too much brian johnson so i'm wondering like what the next um Honestly, I think those, I mean, those rumors, from what we can see, there's nothing to them. Yeah. And what we saw at the, you know, the big parade on September 3rd, some other personnel stuff, there's just people, every year there are these rumor cycles. They came a little earlier this year, but every year they turn out to be BS, and so far they're looking like BS. Oh, well. Trump said this morning that he thinks that he thinks companies in the U.S. shouldn't have to report. quarterly he referenced Chinese companies thinking on a 50 to a 100 year time horizon yet
Starting point is 00:57:07 Chinese public companies do have to report quarterly do you know if the if do you know if are I mean is it is it common for public you know public company management teams in China to say like you know we just missed on everything this quarter but let's look at this at a hundred years let's move out a little bit is that that's that's that's one of those true social posts that just who knows where it came from yeah i was saying it's probably trump trump has a public company he's like realizes how how laborious quarterly reporting is for his team and he wants to free them up to work on product yeah and now and now the like the lobbyist for like the accounting firms and the lawyer the law firms are going to be cycling up in dc like wait a minute
Starting point is 00:57:52 we made no no no this is importantly quarterly reporting is their business yeah there's definitely some people there index to that we were joking about that We cover earnings. We want to as many earnings reports as possible. We like that. Let's do daily, daily earnings reports. So CEOs can say, you know, take that day's revenue and say we're at it, multiply it by 365.
Starting point is 00:58:11 And that's your right. Just have a public view of like your zero or ramp or whatever your accounting system is. Yeah, there you go. What's the latest, any updates on the export tip, donation, tax, whatever it was with NVIDIAs, is it 15%? 15% for the. the big man yeah no so I think but again I think what you know a broader perspective
Starting point is 00:58:39 there last week a nominee for an important position at the Department of Commerce BIS which overseas export controls his his nomination was withdrawn he was he was somebody who's quite hawkish on chip like high technology exports to China There, right now, the Nvidia, the chip firms are, I think, feeling like they're in a pretty good position here in D.C., and there's, I think, going to be a lot more pressure to try and roll back a bunch of these export controls. I think that the actions from the Chinese side may be potentially Nvidia today, that announcement, but then the announcement last Friday, also may give ammunition here to the folks who are proponents of rolling back those chip export controls to further. further push the White House to say, this is not working, we need to take a different approach. And so that ultimately would be good for a lot of these chip companies. Again, back to the Nvidia conversation, the question is, will the Chinese still buy the better
Starting point is 00:59:39 invidia chips? And I mean, I think they'd be crazy not to, but again, this is not necessarily an economic or technical decision solely. Totally. What are you, when will we have clarity, or will we have clarity on the conversations in Madrid? So I think the call Friday, should, you know, supposedly she and Trump were talking Friday. After that, potentially we'll get more information. So far, there have been, you know, both negotiating teams gave statements and there's been a little bit of leaking to the press, but there's nothing, like you specifically around TikTok, there's just very, very few, if any, details other than there's some sort
Starting point is 01:00:17 of a framework agreement. And you guys, I mean, you guys have been in the tech world for a long time. I mean, what does a framework agreement really mean? And how is it legally binding and sort of where, you know, it sort of feels like you say framework when you saw them figure out all the details yeah makes sense well we'll be watching concepts of a plan i don't yeah i don't like these private phone calls between cing and don't trump i would prefer a podcast i want them to sit down together with a sub sac live subsection yeah yeah yeah open invitation to cision ping and don't trump if you want to come hash it out
Starting point is 01:00:49 live on tbpn we're happy to host you you can discuss the plan the concepts of a plan the framework for the plan we'd be happy to have you And it has been great having you, Bill. Thanks so much for helping on. Have a great rest of your day, Bill. Cheers. You too. Thanks.
Starting point is 01:01:04 See you. Bye. Really quickly, let me tell you about Graphite. Code review for the age of AI. Graphite helps teams on GitHub ship higher quality software faster. And Tim Cook was on the red carpet flogging iPhones like a guy selling knockoff pocket watches from under his jacket. Let's play this video. Phone 17. Tell me all about it.
Starting point is 01:01:24 Oh my God. I'm so excited. i'm so excited that you brought it up this is the 17 uh pro max and in this beautiful cosmic orange it's a totally new designed it was re-engineered from the inside out it's the most pro phone we've ever designed and so 16's pretty good the 16 is good but the 17 you is a must i love it that's why you got to give him a raise that's give him a raise give him a raise He's not taking days off. He's not taking days off.
Starting point is 01:01:59 He's not underselling. The market loves it. The market loves it. I love it. He's a, what is this? The Emmys, the Emmys, which I believe is for, what is the Emmys? It's for TV, movies. I think it's an award show.
Starting point is 01:02:13 I don't know. That's a good question for. Oh, yeah, it's TV because we're going for a daytime Emmy. We want, we want, for your consideration. That is Dylan Aberscato's number one KPI. Get us a daytime. I love to see. him out there selling. Every single person at a company should be selling. Yes. And it starts
Starting point is 01:02:33 at the top. Yeah. And you don't, and you use soft play. You're not like, oh yeah, you know, it's just another year. No, it's the best iPhone ever. It's the thinest, lightest, best, biggest, fastest, awesomest iPhone in history. It's a must. So it's a, it's a lot. You got to have it. It's pretty good. The last one pretty good. But this one is a must. It's good. But I mean, he is right. It is re-engineered. There's that whole, you've heard about the vapor chamber thing, a single drop of water inside the iPhone. Did you hear this? Oh, it's amazing. So inside the iPhone, there's a single drop of water in a chamber, and it heats up, evaporates, and moves to a different part away from the hot internals to cool the phone. And this has been one of the complaints for the last few years. I haven't had any problems with heat on this phone on the 16, but. That's cool.
Starting point is 01:03:22 But yeah. My phone overheats. overheats all the time is it do you do you find that it overheats when you're like using software on the phone camera oh filming or video photos photos just taking photos and you you notice it overheating wow that's wow it doesn't turn off yeah yeah definitely it just heats up a little bit and it feels hot and well that should be a thing of the past with your new iphone 17 pro max in orange i'm excited to do you think that the orange color is a nod to yc or stretec what were they or bitcoin which one do you think they were going for probably nod to ben thompson over it
Starting point is 01:04:01 probably ben thompson yeah probably a hat tip yeah ben thompson's been covering the the the the the stock for uh what almost two decades he's done a lot of great reporting on apple and uh why not give them a little nod with the stertechery orange i like it uh or the mclaren orange what else is orange i don't know there's a lot uh anyway True. Cote says, I propose a technology brother pilgrimage to Starbase to look at rockets, feel better about the world, and maybe throw a giant warehouse party or something. Maybe go over to you. He runs a hard tech conference in San Francisco.
Starting point is 01:04:37 I didn't have a chance to go last year, but they, wait, was it in? It was on like an aircraft carrier or something. He really pulled out all the tech bro little touches. I believe there were cyber trucks on top of a aircraft carrier and there were sponsors and stuff. I would like to have a house party in a nuclear submarine. House party? Some flip cup or some beer pong? Yeah.
Starting point is 01:05:05 In the nuclear sub? The nuclear sub, it's pretty tight quarters. Have you ever been on a Navy ship? No. But, you know, it could be a really, you light it properly. it could be a really fun vibe you know but going to star base makes a lot of sense i'm pretty sure you can just go 24 hour 24 hour trip star base in the morning yeah abalone texas in the afternoon oh yeah stargate star gate star base within a crusoe data center yeah something there'll be fun well get on julius
Starting point is 01:05:38 what analysis do you want to run chat with your data and get expert level insights in seconds asked julius to analyze your data over two million users trusted by individuals it's got to be 3 million at this point yeah we need to update that for sure anyway Rahul posted yesterday this is a great post on a Sunday bad day to be a manual workflow I don't even know what inspired that I guess he was just he's a Sunday he's grinding he's automating work workflows that's great more do you need base is beginning to explore a network token we're in the early phases this is from the official base account that's Coinbase's new product
Starting point is 01:06:18 We're in the early phases of exploration and don't have any specifics to share around timing, design, or governance. We're committed to bridging the community, bringing the community along with us and building in the open. Brian Armstrong, CEO and founder of Coinbase says, we're exploring a base network token. It could be a great tool for accelerating decentralization, expanding creator and developer growth in the use. Base is interesting. It's a blockchain without a native token. Yes. And we asked Brian Armstrong about that at the base launch of then.
Starting point is 01:06:48 And he said, no comments right now, no news to share, but that was a question that everyone was asking us to ask, because it did seem like there might be a logical conclusion of this project, is to eventually decentralize the project. So there's no definitive plans. Stay safe out there. Don't go buy the wrong base token, getting, get too excited, but interesting development from Brian Armstrong over at Coinbase. So congrats to them. the progress and congrats to fall generative media platform for developers the world's best generative image video and audio models all in one place develop and fine-tune models go with serverless GPUs and on-demand clusters Bill Gates
Starting point is 01:07:32 someone resurfaced Bill Gates's resume as a freshman at Harvard the resume and experience is still probably better than 99% of college students in tech out there and so it says his objective was to become a systems analyst and systems programmer. On his resume, he puts his heightened weight, 510, 130. What a hilarious thing to put on your resume. Interesting. Is that to make your, is that to make you more interesting from from a like a health insurance standpoint? It's like, hey, my caring cost is not going to be that high. Yeah, free lunches, I'm not going to be doing double protein. I'm just a hundred, I'm just a buck 30 when I'm wet and wearing boots. This is no dependence. He wants a $12,000 salary, but he's
Starting point is 01:08:18 open to whatever. And he's open to relocating. He's at least 12 grand. He's open to 120 billion. Look at this resume, his experience. He knows Fortran. He knows Cobol. He knows basic. He knows machine languages for most of the above computers list. Or he even built a payroll product. Oh, yeah. Traffic flow analysis system, school scheduling payroll. He's a systems programmer and in partnership with Paul Allen, of course the co-founder, designed and put together a system traffic engineers to study traffic flow. The system is built around Intel's MCS 8008 microcomputer, the software and hardware setup, has been fully tested using a prototype. Demonstrations to customers are planned for May 1974. Wow. Information
Starting point is 01:09:06 sciences, fun. I wonder how that surfaced. Like, when did he publish this? Did someone else, did someone else publish this, leak this? I don't know. Yeah, it's interesting. He was like working with a recruiting services firm probably a good client for them seems like he would have had a lot of options indeed uh junk bond analysts we already covered this the screenshot of the truth social post about subject to cc approval yeah this seems with the cc yeah i mean uh we're going to need to see the art like why report report it's funny to say like uh put it in question because like it very much is definitely a report it's a real report on a quarterly basis and then also in parentheses so it's subject to the SEC approval
Starting point is 01:09:54 companies and corporations should no longer be forced to report on a quarterly basis parentheses quarterly reporting exclamation point like why are you putting this in parentheses but rather report on six month six and then six in parentheses month basis in case you couldn't read SI X I really don't understand the texture of this. This is definitely not LLM generated. This is going from the desk of the president. It ends up being like the exact same amount of work, right?
Starting point is 01:10:26 Like the report, it's the six month report just like doubles, you know, doubles in terms of how intensive it is. And the function is that the lawyers and the accountants get paid exactly the same amount. This is a wild post. Did you ever hear the statement that, quote, China has a 50 to 100 year view on management of a company, whereas we run our companies on a quarterly basis,
Starting point is 01:10:45 question mark question mark question mark not good exclamation mark exclamation mark and it doesn't close the quote like there's no there's no end to that quote and also since when have we been looking to china for best practices on anything i thought i thought we were like near peer adversaries very very odd um anyway Elon Musk has perched over 2.56 million shares of Tesla worth one billion dollars the purchase happened on september 12th with an average price of $389.22. This is Elon's first open market stock purchase since February of 2020. He is squarely in the one trillion club. What do you mean? Tesla. The market cap is currently 1.28 trillion. Wow. It's crazy that only a little while ago, it feels like Meadow was at like one
Starting point is 01:11:34 one like, you know, just just north of that. But yeah, I feel like there's, there's, There's going to be news here, especially around. Robotaxie? Yeah, there was also news. X-A-I terminated like 500 employees over the weekend. Yeah. Which, again, I don't want to, like, read too much. Put on the tinfoam hot, bro.
Starting point is 01:12:04 Go crazy. Give me the theory. He buys the stock, the stock goes up, and then use that to merge in XIA. That would be the 3D chess if something crazy happens. I like that. Yeah, I mean, obviously Tesla, a fantastic AI team built self-driving, like one of the best, if not the best self-driving system. The employees that were laid off were doing like data labeling, right, which can be.
Starting point is 01:12:29 Probably non-equity comp. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. And increasingly there are tons. Yeah, it's interesting because there's been tons of competition in that space between scale, Merckor, Handshake, what's that other one? It's not Volt, it's like, Surge. So there's a few... Turing, Merckor, Surge. So there's a few companies that are outside contractors. Label box. Label box, yeah. I just heard a label box add on Dorcasch. It's fantastic. So, so like this is a service that you can very much buy from a highly competitive market
Starting point is 01:13:07 and effectively outsource that role. A few companies. have brought it in-house. It seems like X-AI is going from in-house to outsourced. But I think not too much to read into on the X-AI side. There was a post in here. Maybe we can pull it up, but let me see. It's deeper, deeper, deeper. The, yes, so another one of those posts by Zephyr. Zephyr's really been on a tear. 1.4 million views on this post. Be Elon co-found open AI for humanity. Watch Altman flip it into Microsoft's loot box Quietly.E
Starting point is 01:13:42 Launch xAI poach the best GPU whisperers from deepind open up. So, meta bottom at 1.23 trillion this year.
Starting point is 01:13:56 And now this year. And now Zuck is sorry, Elon is north of that today. Okay. Well, says, considering the revenue and earnings difference between those two companies, it says a lot about Elon's ability to make people believe and give them like optionality on so many different tech trends. Yeah, I mean, he's making transformers. They're making chips.
Starting point is 01:14:27 Yeah, it's a very, I feel like the market still very much believes that self-driving cars will be a thing and it'll be big. and Tesla's bleeding in that market, or, you know, at the top of it. And same thing with robots. Like, you know, we grew up watching sci-fi films, or some of us did. I don't know if you did, but watching sci-fi films of robots. If robots are a thing, Elon is going to figure out a way to make money on it. So that's always been the story in recent history of Tesla's bull case, and certainly Elon's betting on that.
Starting point is 01:15:04 But the bull case for XAI, this is the data that came out from OpenRouter, which I was talking to Tyler about a little bit over the weekend. So GROC code Fast 1 is now the number one ranked model on OpenRouter with 1.06 trillion tokens generated. Claude Sonnet 4 is at 343 billion tokens. GPT5 is down at 72 billion tokens. And I sent this to Tyler and was like, I don't believe that GROC is four times bigger than Claude and 10 times bigger than GPT5. Like, this just doesn't seem right. And Tyler kind of broke it down for me what's actually happening on OpenRouter. So can you explain when people use OpenRouter what type of data would be included in this particular data set versus the broader LLM inference market? Yeah, so is my mic on?
Starting point is 01:15:59 Yeah, you're good. My thesis is basically like you use open rudder when you're doing kind of low intelligence, but like high volume things when price matters a lot. Because if you look at the top models, a lot of them, there is like Claude, there is Gemini, but then you see a lot of open source models, which are like super cheap to inference. So like at least for me, whenever I use, like I do a bunch of inference on different models, Whenever I use open AI or Anthropic or Gemini, I'm usually hitting their actual API.
Starting point is 01:16:34 I'm not using OpenRouter. Directly. Yeah, because maybe there's some sense where, there's different perams that aren't actually exposed via the OpenRouter API or something like that. I think that's probably generally true for a lot of people. But if I'm using, if I just need super cheap intelligence, then I just go in Open Router, I see, OK, this is like a pretty good model.
Starting point is 01:16:55 It's like super cheap. I'll just hit that. And then sometimes if the inference is like super cheap, super slow, I can really easily switch to a different open source model. Sure. So that's kind of my thesis. So it's also why if you look at the kind of total like tokens inferenced, it's like, Claude Sonnet 4 is at 500 billion of the past week, which if you kind of map out like what the actual like revenue is from that.
Starting point is 01:17:21 Yeah. It's like a super tiny amount of what their revenue like is probably if you kind of like think there's some numbers leaked. The leak numbers for Anthropic are, it's around $4 billion a year in business, probably more now. So you work backwards and you get to like, they should be making like $250 million a month. And this data only accounts for something like $12 million of that $250. So the actual frame is like 95% of their business or something like that, 90% of their business is happening directly on their API, and then 5% of their business is happening in OpenRouter. Yeah, or something like that.
Starting point is 01:18:04 I didn't include the input tokens, which is like about, it's like 10x cheaper. So it's like, at least in that order of magnitude. Yeah. But it's significantly less than like what it should be, where like I've used GROC a fair amount via API. Or I've never used it through GROC's API. I've only used it through OpenRouter. Got it.
Starting point is 01:18:23 So I think that's probably true. Also, like one of the reasons you might see GROC code fast one, fast one being surprised that at least since its release I think it's still free in cursor and Klein and I don't know if they're using open router they're using some kind of router in the back right because you can cursor is yeah obviously because because you can select like Grock or anthropic or well isn't that just their own router it could be okay but they could be sitting on top of them yeah I mean it's like very easy to get it so yeah so I think those are some the reasons why you might see yeah so I think yeah so I think yeah performing here
Starting point is 01:18:58 I think this, this post, this is sort of like, you know, meme, incendiary, written for virality. The default story it's telling is like, oh, yeah, like GROC is, you know, 10 times bigger than Open AI. And that's probably not right, but. Charts are great for marketing. Yes. And whether you're hitting number one globally in the HEP store, here, where your charting matters a lot, right? and it's natural for companies to share the charts that are that are good when they're good when they're good exactly and they're just snapshots too and charts yeah charts are and so what is this
Starting point is 01:19:41 actually what's the actual interpretation here like they're winning on open router which means that they're like grok has successfully delivered a level of intelligence that is affordable and yeah I would say like Like, I would almost put this model comp it to like just open source models, like coin or something, rather than like kind of the, the, you know, frontier reasoning models. Got it. So you could say they're winning kind of in that field, even though it's not open source, it's still in that similar like price range. Yep.
Starting point is 01:20:13 There does seem to be value in soaking up some of the demand that's further down the cost curve for maybe more price sensitive users. Yeah, it could also be like, I mean, the model is still good enough where like even if it's if it's worse on a single shot compared to like chip d5 if you just run it 10 times it still will be a little bit cheaper and you're like kind of at a similar spot so where you can just kind of max out on volume instead of like your your intelligence per token is less but if you just run way more tokens then you're at similar intelligence it'll still be cheaper yeah so
Starting point is 01:20:45 maybe there's some kind of factor there so like lightly bullish for the xAI team they've clearly built something that people want at a specific price point it's definitely Good, yeah. I mean, I haven't seen, like, I don't really use, like, the newest GROC model, like, their frontier one. Is it three? I guess three. I almost never use it. Yeah. So this is maybe, like, one of the first examples of GROC models, like, really being used a lot. Yeah. It'll be interesting to see what happens with the company. Yeah, the roll-up theory is kind of interesting to toy with. There's a bunch of, imagine Axe the Everything app integrated with Tesla. That's a funny. Funny outcome if that's what happens. I would be basically forced to buy a Tesla. I would definitely buy a Tesla. I mean, buy one and then take it to the shop and manual swap it and naturally aspirated V-12 in there. What if they just came at and said, you can't use X when you're moving fast unless you're inside of a Tesla.
Starting point is 01:21:46 Force people to transition out of traditional cars. That's the next catalyst for the next five million. I really hope Tesla ships the Roadster. I saw someone on the timeline maybe a week or two ago talking very, very sad, like a super Tesla bowl, owns multiple Tesla's, owns the stock, saying that they canceled their Roadster 2 reservation after maybe eight years of waiting, something like that. And I'm still feeling like a hundred bucks? No, no, no, no. The Roadster was like over 10 grand. Okay, so real deposit.
Starting point is 01:22:23 But also you hear this crazy. stat where people are like, well, if you'd put it in Tesla stock instead, it would be worth $5 million. And it's like, well, that's not really like a fair comparison. The cyber truck reservation was like $100. But the Roadster 2 was, I mean, it's, you know, I think people knew that it was going to be several hundred thousand dollars, supercar territory. But it just hasn't moved.
Starting point is 01:22:45 But I think that they should do it. I think it'd be good. They need a halo car. The cyber truck's kind of working as a halo car. But the design language is a little bit, a little bit too disparate from the core portfolio where if you see, if you see an Audi R8, you're like, oh, Audi's cool. Maybe I'll get an A4, right? Like, because there's some styling cues that are the same. But if you walk into the Tesla dealership and you see a cyber truck, you're not like, yeah, Model 3 really like speaks that language, right?
Starting point is 01:23:17 It's like they're wildly different designs. So maybe if over time the three and the S and the X and the Y, they all update to have a little more of that cyber truck language, the cyber truck could work as a halo car. But right now it feels like a very different car from like a very different like brand world essentially. It's cool. But I want to see. In other Elon news, Perfrock, four is their smartest, the boring company posts. The smartest, fastest, safest, tunnel boring machine in the next iterations, five, six and seven are already. being built at the Boring Company factory in Texas.
Starting point is 01:23:52 Goal is continuous mining and zero people in tunnel, Z-Pitt. And they're hiring exceptional mechanical engineers, electrical engineers, and software engineers. The boring company has just not gotten really any attention for the last few years. And it's been grinding. It's so funny to think about a world where you look up and you see starships being launched.
Starting point is 01:24:16 And if you could look down there would just be, you know, tunnel boring machines everywhere but uh this one's a sleeper i hope to i hope to see uh i hope to see more out of them yeah i mean it's tough it's heavily regulated to build stuff underground not going deep enough takes a long time but uh deep enough nobody the regulators won't know yeah i heard one interesting thesis that was like uh it's it's just like the underground domain is like it is a resource it's essentially real estate if you can build stuff down there even it's just a and that's extremely valuable because it's effectively free. Like, it's a free resource.
Starting point is 01:24:54 Yeah. Just like space. Tyler, I'm not going to pretend like you're supposed to know this, but can you try to figure out like who regulates once you get? Because I would assume like a hundred feet below your property is like probably like there's some traditional property law. Yeah, I would think that there's nothing.
Starting point is 01:25:13 If I could dig a tunnel down there, I would just assume that I have some ownership over what happens there. But I think if you could. go deep enough. I mean, is that not like the play? What would you be okay with? If some random person was like, Jordy, hey, I got a toll. I'm building a title under your house. Don't worry. It's 500 feet. Would you be like, yeah, cool? Or would you be like, I would prefer not to have that happened? 500 is fair game. 500 is fair game. As long as if they can prove out safety, right? I don't want any type of collapse. Okay. I like the level of my home is at. Yeah. And the ultradome. Yep. I don't want to suddenly
Starting point is 01:25:49 feel a jolt to fall through the earth yeah yeah I don't know I have yet to tour the the the boring company tunnel they built one in Las Vegas is kind of a demo there's been a few that have built but I mean this is one of those businesses that I think has just been building building similar to Neurlink like working chopping wood grinding grind in stone in the earth and yeah maybe something happens here Tyler did you get any closer to an answer on how unregulated the underground domain the subterranean subterranean domain yes so this is Chetibb t it says courts generally say that you can go you own the ground beneath your land only to
Starting point is 01:26:27 the extent that you can reasonably use it there you go so there was a court case in 1946 the Supreme Court rejected the to the center of the earth doctrine so you don't just own everything below you so usually it's like maybe a thousand feet is kind of the extent and that below that is just I guess it's just free free rein do you You're not using more than a 10 feet below your, I'm sorry, Tyler, the second you have property, I'm burrowing a tunnel underneath it, I'm going to be hanging out under there, and you're going to have to prove that you can get down there. I do think that there's a massive market for bat caves. You know, it's very hard to do ADUs. 80s are booming now in California, but it's still hard to actually go and add real estate to a house. We have a housing crisis. why not just have the tunnel company come build and just be like hey we we built
Starting point is 01:27:19 you the perfect man cave underground your house under your house if you want us to build a little tunnel up to your your bedroom that you can climb down and go enjoy your new movie theater can you imagine being like an angry teenager getting a fight with your parents about I'm going to the main I don't want to I'm going to that dinner and then you just go in the tube and you go and then you're down in the back cave huge huge untapped market if they can figure it out They don't understand me above. Do you know the story of the subway that goes out to Harvard University in Cambridge?
Starting point is 01:27:51 I do not. This is fascinating. So the MTA, the Massachusetts, MBTA, Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority built a subway that goes from Boston out to Cambridge. And when they built it, they wanted it to go through Harvard's territory, Harvard's land. And it would have been a straight shot to get from Boston to Harvard. But when you're on the actual subway, it slows to a crawl at one point and starts the wheel screech and go, as you're going around, this weird curve. And I was very unclear on why the metro, why the subway needed to take a curve when you can clearly draw a straight line between, you know, the logical places to go from Boston to Cambridge to get off and go to Harvard University.
Starting point is 01:28:42 And the reason is that Harvard does own the ground underneath. And the reason that they did a deal, and do you know who they did a deal with? Probably some baron? Close. He wasn't a king. It was our first president, George Washington. So they got an illegal battle, and the Harvard administration fights the Boston Transportation Authority and the Boston Transportation Authority and the Boston, yeah, the Boston Transportation Authority says, We have eminent domain, we, you know, we own the land, we govern this land. You need to let us build this subway in a straight line.
Starting point is 01:29:22 It'll be better for everyone. Harvard says no, and we have proof that we actually control the land all the way down to the bedrock. And our evidence is a letter that is signed by George Washington, who said, I grant you this land. And it held up. And so the subway had to go around. And, and honestly, super inconvenient to Harvard students. And I don't know why Harvard wasn't just like, yeah, obviously build it in the convenient way. But there are probably other considerations.
Starting point is 01:29:52 Anyway, turbopuffer, search every byte, serverless vector and full text search built from first principles on object storage. Fast, 10x cheaper and extremely scalable. Happy birthday to Casey Hanmer, friend of the show. It's been 15 years in this incredible country. He says it's his American birthday on September 14th, 15 years ago, 2010. He became a U.S. citizen. He says he feels like he's still getting started. Incredible addition to the squad.
Starting point is 01:30:25 Thank you to Casey Hanmer for all that you do for America. Let's play that American Eagle sound. Happy birthday, Casey. In other news. To 150 more. Yeah, to 150 more. In other news, debate continues to rage between Salesforce CEO Mark Benio. This account is this account we're featuring here.
Starting point is 01:30:49 Just calling balls and strikes. Yeah, yeah. This is media. This is journalism. Not conflicted at all. So Palantir hotline with the target says CEOs will do the math and would rather pay Palantir 10 million to make save $100 million instead of pay. CRM 5 million to break even or worse value creators greater than value extractors so not conflicted at all not conflicted at all and this is a post from John who was excellent in
Starting point is 01:31:19 clipping our Alex Carp interview this is such a great quote yes he says I'm so inspired so I listen to the Mark Benioff tried talking smack with Kramer and and saying you know we're winning deals carp fired back on TBPN and now Now, Benioff is taking the high road. He says, I'm so inspired by that company, not just because they have 100x multiple on revenue, which I would love to have. Dude, are you pulling up?
Starting point is 01:31:49 I'm pulling up the video. Let's pull it up. Let's go. It's in the chat now. They're going back and forth. I mean, there is a real discussion. We talked about earlier in the show about how Salesforce positions its revenue model, how
Starting point is 01:32:06 the market will treat that in the short term. Beniof and Jim Kramer had a back and forth on mad money talking about how Salesforce actually makes money and charges the customer. And yeah, there is a question about where both these companies go. It's a big battle. Anyway, let's pull up the clip of Mark Beniof talking to CNBC about Palantier.
Starting point is 01:32:35 you know, an idea out there, and you see it in the valuation of the company, Palantir, this idea that that's the future of software, it's disrupting software, and it's doing so without a marketing team. Oh my gosh, I am so inspired by that company. I mean, not just because they have 100 times, you know, multiple on their revenue, which I would love to have that too. Maybe it will have a thousand times on their revenue soon. But the prices that they charge to their customers, I mean,
Starting point is 01:33:00 it's got to be the most expensive enterprise software I've ever seen. I've been like looking at their demos this week saying, my gosh, how do they get these prices? Because I thought I had analytics. I thought I had data management. Maybe I'm not charging enough. And you're competing with them. We compete with them. In fact, we just won a huge deal with the U.S. Army against them.
Starting point is 01:33:21 The positioning is crazy. Insane. Beniof's a legend. We're hoping to have them on the show. I think next month we're working on it. But that is insane levels. of cope. You think so? Yeah. I mean, I think this is guy notorious for selling expensive software. Salesports. Is angry that someone else is charging more money. More expensive software.
Starting point is 01:33:46 That's a good point, yeah. When, yeah, on a long, you know, on a long enough time horizon, this is about the value that you deliver to customers. You need to deliver more value than you capture. Yep. And Palantir's got a fantastic pitch. Yeah. They have fantastic. You know, I mean, we were at, we were at AIPCon. We talked on air and off air with people that are using Palantir Stack. And it's not, I think, you know, they obviously compete in a real way, but there's also plenty of companies on Palantir stack that are not even in conversations with Salesforce around a bunch of different use cases. Yeah, I was about to say that. It does feel like Palantir position themselves completely differently from a product.
Starting point is 01:34:33 perspective in terms of what they do people think sales i mean the ticker is CRM and so when i hear about like an army deal i'm like are they are they getting a CRM like but i but i guess that they're just so big at this point so you can do a lot of different stuff the company uh c3 yeah c3.a i they have the ticker AI AI i was going to mark betty off should buy them just to get the AI ticker to come into the next era yeah just rebrand your ticker uh There's been a lot of ticker foe. I mean, Mark Zuckerberg with the meta rebrand, getting your core brand on the theme
Starting point is 01:35:12 or defining the theme is somewhat of an underrated strategy. It's like a good dot com, a good ticker, that people can just go and say, I want exposure to AI, I'm getting C3 AI, I want exposure to CRMs, I'm getting dollar sign CRM. That's a potentially new fund with the strategy of just investing based on the narrative surrounding the narrative that you construct around the ticker yes I need an AI I
Starting point is 01:35:37 need an AI company maybe maybe I need a CRM company well whatever you're building you need to get your brand mentioned on chat GPT you need to go to profound to millions of consumers who are using AI to discover new products and brands could have profound should we go through the Wall Street Journal article we were featured in the Wall Street Journal if you're just tuning in Dylan Aberscato says on X I'm joining TVPN as president John Geordie and team have built something incredibly special and after starting my career at CNB see this feels full circle. Dylan also ran partnerships for HQ Trivia during their
Starting point is 01:36:11 heyday which is a crazy crazy journey he'll have to jump on the show some time to talk about Dylan also knows about sports which is oh yeah this is a major unlock for us we're going to learn so much now have expertise on sports yeah it's also very into collectibles so he's helping us build out the we should sit down with him and ask him like what are all the sports like what how do they work like what are the sports are popular what are the leagues yeah what are the leagues what are the plays yeah the plays would love for him to name every play i would love for him to name every play get up to speed on the plays that would be very cool um i don't know that we have to go
Starting point is 01:36:50 through this maybe we can just um maybe we can pull out some of some of the key uh some of the key quotes yeah um what else is here they call this podcast but they didn't put us in quotes at least not total total victory big big shout out to the total victory to uh the wall street journal um i i wanted to highlight one quote in here let me find it um i this this was my favorite part yes and uh i hope that that doesn't sound uh who who said who said this quote that's your favorite quote that i have said when talking with katie uh the journalist over I said, well, we said, this is Katie's reporting. She said, the duo has a laundry list of moves.
Starting point is 01:37:40 They have zero interest in making, forming a content studio, creating a network of shows, pivoting to political coverage, raising capital, setting up a venture fund and selling. And I said, we're perfectly fine with there being somewhat of a ceiling on the size of the business. Hayes said, we're not building for an exit. We want to retire on the mics, on the air. I love it. So I told Katie that, you know, at some point, decades into the future, there will be a final show. I hope it is many decades from now.
Starting point is 01:38:11 But we hope to retire here on the mics. I hope to see John Exley's name in the chat, or one final salute. But anyways, absolutely love the journal and fun to be in there for the first time. Very fun. Did you see Mike Tyson drop Mr. B? I did. I just dropped it in the timeline. That's pull this up. Mike Isaac said, Tyson nearly Houdinied Mr. Beast on camera.
Starting point is 01:38:38 Are you familiar with this story? Didn't Houdini, didn't he Houdini himself? I don't actually know. What is being Houdini? Tyler, what happened with Houdini? I mean, this is like from when I was in like fourth grade, but I was told that basically he got punched in the stomach just like this, but he like, he didn't like clench or anything.
Starting point is 01:38:53 Oh, yeah. So he had a, I remember now. So he had a whole bit of letting any guy could just punch him. Whoa. And if you, if you, if you flinched. flex in the right way pretty much you can take a punch sure but a guy I guess caught him when he wasn't like ready for it it just broke a rib or something internal bleeding Houdini passed away R-iP to a real one
Starting point is 01:39:13 let's pull this video let's play the video of Mike Tyson whatever you're ready up okay okay that straight to the liver oh that is intense whenever you're ready up he really whatever you're ready up okay okay that's enough that's enough Is that, do you think, do you think he was doing a bit of acting there because there was such a viral moment? I don't know. Because it wasn't like a liver, I don't think that was a liver shot. Yeah, there's like a longer version I saw and he's like still down there for like another 10 seconds.
Starting point is 01:39:43 Yeah, yeah, that's just, that's just. Yeah, but is he just acting? He's an entertainer. He's an entertainer. I think he knows, I think he knows to entertain. But at the same time, I think he knows that it is like he can talk to Tyson and say, hit me hard, but don't actually take me out entirely. and Tyson can dial it into a point where Tyson knows, yeah,
Starting point is 01:40:05 I'm not going to break your rib, but I will knock the wind out of you. The thing seeing the Tyson-Jake Paul fight is watching Tyson all these years later with just like this incredible form and movement despite being long retired was, it was cool to see. It was literally like riding a bike for him. I pulled up, we were talking about tickers earlier. that wanted to invest in CRM could buy hashtag CRM,
Starting point is 01:40:35 or we could buy C3 by buying AI. On public.com, investing for those that take it seriously? Of course. Because they have multi-acid investing, industry-leading yields, not financial price. Trusted by billions. But I pulled up some tickers here, and I wanted to help you build a portfolio.
Starting point is 01:40:52 Oh, you have more funny tickers? So start, we can do ticker cake for the cheesecake. factory. No way. That's good. That's hard not to go long cake. Taco. This was Del Taco. It used to trade under that before they got acquired. What else you got? Bud, Anheiser Bush. Okay, yeah. Boston Beer Company traded under Sam. I'm still, yeah. Yeah, that makes sense, but I would expect the ticker being beer. Like I want the ticker to be generic, you know? For Budweiser, I would expect the ticker just to be beer. I would expect the ticker. I would expect the ticker. I got another one.
Starting point is 01:41:32 It needs to be generic. You're totally generic. I got it. Okay. Next up. Hog, guess. H-O-G. Must be a bacon company makes bacon.
Starting point is 01:41:45 Close. Harley Davidson. That's still, it's still stepped away. That's good. You want to invest in hog? That is a very funny ticker. If you want to have broad exposure to hogs. Yes.
Starting point is 01:41:56 No, no, no. It doesn't actually give you exposure to hogs. What else? anything else there's there's a few there's uh C R Z Y crazy woman Creek C R Z or what is that that's a tiny bank in Wyoming OTC somebody made a cannabis ETO I wonder how that's doing I don't know probably not great yeah there does seem to be some alpha in in having a unique ticker like a unique dot yeah Yolo is is down 87% all time.
Starting point is 01:42:33 Hopefully, you didn't actually YOLO until YOLO. Be careful. Just absolutely brutal. If it looks like a yellow. You only live once. You only lose once. Go down 87%. You only lose everything once.
Starting point is 01:42:47 You're only going to be able to, if you don't lose everything once, you're never going to be able to make it all back in one trade. Hey, maybe the thesis for Yolo was this is a generational opportunity to go short. You could be up 80% if you went short with some. size what you got to uh guess so i have one play play yeah david busters that's okay that's pretty good yeah long playing it's not as much of a pure play as uh as a i or c rm there's also a love which is love sack the beanbag furniture retailer hmm it's a rival the moon pods don't like it
Starting point is 01:43:22 yeah don't like boo boo boo oh oh oh oh no uh good luck to everyone over there um Anyway, there was an incredible exchange between Secretary Wright and Jason Calacanus about solar and Elon Musk at the All In Summit. So Elon has a complete wrong. Yeah, I have the video pulled up. Let's play this. Let's play this. He has a wildly exaggerated view of where solar and batteries will go. And if we could make a bet 50 years out, I'll make a bet. solar never gets to 10% of global energy. So Elon Musk has it completely wrong. So this is the US Secretary of Energy, very clearly like long nuclear relative to solar.
Starting point is 01:44:13 And it's a hot debate. I still feel like nuclear is growing and there's so much, like how many startups are we talk to in the atomic world? There's something there. Elon, he seems to be a purist about solar and purist about, you know, not using LiDAR on the self-driving cars. And Elon likes the purely elegant solutions of just like the most efficient thing. But if the, if energy capacity is like messy and you need it at night, like there's only so much that you can do. What do you think?
Starting point is 01:44:50 Yeah. I just want more energy. Just give me more. I think that's what, as much as possible. I think that's what Secretary Chris White right is saying. It is interesting. Doug from Radiant worked with Elon on a plan to power Mars and ran all the numbers on what it would take to generate enough power to create fuel
Starting point is 01:45:13 out of the ice on Mars to bring a rocket back and concluded that nuclear was the best option, left SpaceX, started a nuclear company, and Elon somehow was unconvin. and went and is still super long solar. What's also interesting is that for all of his, Elon, for as much of a solar bull as Elon is, he doesn't seem that indexed to the trend, right? Like, he owns Solar City, but he's not, he doesn't have like a mega production facility.
Starting point is 01:45:44 He feels longer energy storage than he is. Totally. Like, yeah. Solar. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Certainly makes a ton of batteries. It makes a ton of cars and stuff, but it makes sense that, you know, solar is important to, as a story of that. But, I mean, if you charge your Tesla in 10 years off of a nuclear power plant, like, he's still a winner.
Starting point is 01:46:04 Yeah. So it's not like he's, he's bet his entire career or his entire business. I've never, I don't remember any, him, I'm sure he's spoken about nuclear, but I don't, I never remember Elon saying that he was anti-nuclear. Yeah, I think he's just, just, he's, he's. He's been amplifying a bunch of posts that have been basically from like solar maxies. But anyway, if you're planning your build out of a nuclear power plan, do it on linear. Linear is a purpose-built tool for planning and building products. Meet the system for modern software development, streamline issues, projects, and product roadmaps.
Starting point is 01:46:38 Internal tech emails has some Larry Ellison data information from 2002, March 22nd. We cannot remain in denial if we talk with our users every day. Larry Ellison says, our top priorities. is to get Oracle users delighted with the quality and function of our CRM products. Until that happens, I doubt we will achieve success in the market. The biggest problem is missing features as opposed to showstopper bugs. There are a few of those as well, but they are much easier to fix. Every applications meeting now centers around representatives from our user community
Starting point is 01:47:10 who report back on application quality and set priorities for development. We cannot remain in denial if we talk with our users every day. We need to work very hard to achieve a high degree of customer satisfaction for our sales. and marketing products as soon as possible. We will have major improvements by June, but we are unlikely to deliver all we need until September. Doing it by September will require unrelenting focus and a Herculean effort it will be done,
Starting point is 01:47:37 but not unless we change our development and testing process and do a better job of listening to our user community. Larry. Pretty interesting that they were taking such a run at CRM. I feel like Oracle is not particularly known for that. Yeah, I'm trying to figure out how trying to figure out how what their their revenue for the CRM product is today but they bundle it into cloud application sure now which is yeah huge which still
Starting point is 01:48:02 significant you know 3.8 3.8 billion a quarter they're already reporting their first quarter fiscal year 2026 I just hope we get Larry taking some shots at Mark Benny off and some putting the timeline in turmoil that'd be fun anyway did Did you see this, did you see this app, Pokey? Do you see this? Yeah, we got to get, we should actually get the team on. Yeah, I was texting with the founder. We should definitely bring him on.
Starting point is 01:48:31 But Austin Allred interacted with their chat. It looks like he had signed up, given their phone number, and wound up texting with their AI support wrapper, their AI sales rap. And Austin Allred just says, WTF is going on. And so Poke identified that. that Austin is the founder of Bloom Tech and says, what brings you to my digital doorsteps, trying to see how the real AI companies do it?
Starting point is 01:48:59 And it's like this super sassy fine tune of an LLM, and Austin says, yeah. And the Pocase bot says, quotes, yeah, that's all the effort you're gonna put in. I expected more from someone who tweets about AI productivity all day. Maybe you should enroll in one of your own courses on how to convince AI bouncers to let you in. And Austin just says, too much SaaS from AI.
Starting point is 01:49:22 SaaS is literally what I'm here for, Austin. But fine, let me be more direct. Why should you get POKE access when you're already busy running Bloom Tech, managing angel investments, tweeting about AI productivity? But here's the thing. Access to POKE isn't just about follower account.
Starting point is 01:49:38 We're looking for people who will actually use it, provide feedback, and help us improve. Your work training devs to leverage AI is interesting. Tell me more about what you'd actually do with POKE if I let you you in. And yes, tweeting about it would help your case. I think that's me, depending on how good you are. Depending on how good you are. And so he has this like sassy exchange with Pocay. This is, I don't know if this is intentional, but letting, making the screenshots of the product marketing for the user's business is pretty smart if it was intentional. Because he has an incentive
Starting point is 01:50:12 to share this because it's saying, look, you built an entire, it's funny. And it's also, look, you've built an entire business around teaching devs to use AI effectively. Yeah, respect that. Yeah, and so Austin kind of closed it out. Look, let's get one thing straight. I know you're an AI model. You're a bunch of linear algebra running on a machine.
Starting point is 01:50:29 If you can give me productivity gains, then show me how. Otherwise, I'll stop using you. I'm not here to impress you. You need to impress me. And so he has this interaction. But it wound up working, right? Like he posted about POKE. He got a bunch of views and likes on the post.
Starting point is 01:50:44 It definitely drew our attention to it. So I guess mission accomplished, I still don't fully understand what Pocay does. So maybe there's a little bit more to do there. But it is somewhat impressive that during the onboarding flow, the system was able to identify who Austin Allred is. I mean, I guess he's enough of a public figure at this point that if you just hit any LLM and asked who is Austin Allred,
Starting point is 01:51:08 it would give you the high level summary of, he's an angel investor, he's the founder of Bloom Tech, and he tweets about AI productivity. And so maybe that's basically, but if you could bring this level of personalization I don't know that I agree with like the sassy tone necessarily but if you could bring this level of personalization to interactions maybe that's good I don't know I saw somebody I saw somebody posting that that Apple should acquire okay I mean which is
Starting point is 01:51:34 the interaction company of California oh really that yeah that's their sub-brand that's their parent the parent come with no no no really yeah and they've been that they've been that way for a while so remember we gave it cutoff. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. No more. But then they were the last one through the gate right before the cutoff.
Starting point is 01:51:50 Oh, well. Yeah, I would be interested to hear from the founder, like what the, this is at least like a teaser for what the product does. Like clearly it's a friend.com sassy, fine-tune on AI. I think it's more so the difference between this and friend. Friend is not trying to be functional at all other than being a friend.
Starting point is 01:52:08 And this is trying to be a functional kind of tool assistant type thing that can, that has more, is for friend code. I just mean that there is a world where you're a company, and you want to bring an LLM into your product. And if you're trying to bring in like any other tool off the technological shelf, whether it's a UI component, HTML5, the way a link looks, you will express your brand
Starting point is 01:52:38 through CSS, right? Like you will, you might have, everyone has a button on their website, but every button looks different, it's an expression of their brand, right? And so if you're going to bring LLMs or chat interfaces to bear, it makes sense to actually try and bring your brand through in some way. And this is a more extreme brand than I think most people would go with. But there is something to the idea that even if you're just a large enterprise company, you might want your LLM voice to actually be an extension of your brand.
Starting point is 01:53:14 whether that's just being slightly friendlier, slightly more corporate, or slightly use more or less jargon. You might just not want to just show up with the default ChachyPT or Gemini or whatever flavor of LLM that people are used to interacting with. You might want something that's a little bit more. Something tells me that the OK team could help the Apple team figure out
Starting point is 01:53:37 how to summarize messages without botching them 90% of the time. That's a good take, yeah. Anyway, interesting. 400 episodes of the greatest podcast of all time in history. Future Hall of Famer Founders podcast. Coloss, warm it up and give it a good hit. Great contact, John. Colossus had the write-up this morning. This week, David Senator has just released his 400th episode of Founders,
Starting point is 01:54:09 a milestone that represents far more than a number. It's a testament to one of the most extraordinary, learning projects and podcasting history. Over nine years, David has read and re-read 400 biographies and autobiographies of history's greatest entrepreneurs, distilling their wisdom into a treasure trove of timeless business principles.
Starting point is 01:54:27 From episodes one to episode 400, founders has become the ultimate master class and entrepreneurial thinking. David just doesn't just summarize books. I know what you're thinking. He excavates the core ideas that built empires, the mental models that created four, fortunes and the philosophies that turned ordinary people into business legends.
Starting point is 01:54:51 It's a little syntax that's not a bad form. Do you think that maybe who knows who knows it's well written it is it doesn't has just like ruined that entire stylistic'll flourish which was very very useful for a long period of time and now it's like uh there was a big movement on on x you probably saw where it was like bring back the m dash like make make m dash is legal again because chachibati is like so so clearly like stolen the m dash from from writing that you can't use one uh without getting accused that open a i team doesn't seem to be lying off the m dashes you see more than ever i thought i think the same amount yeah i i thought that the uh it's not this it's that uh using the m dash that was
Starting point is 01:55:42 going to be like a stylistical flourish that was going to be left behind with 4-0 and that five would have a different flavor different structure over the weekend I kept seeing accounts commenting that were clearly running software to basically like look at the original post yeah and write back a respond automatically to it okay these are people that are trying to build bot accounts up or maybe it's their own account yeah yeah just want to grow and I kept wanting to just like break you know my phone and just slam it from the ground because it's so annoying to start reading something and then halfway through you realize it's but yeah anyways this is a very nicely written nicely written piece um and a huge congratulations to david center they say uh that is 400 episodes down a thousand to go
Starting point is 01:56:28 i would i would put it more in the range of 400 000 episodes to go um but uh bet you know if you love david center as much as we do the best thing you can do uh to make his job his life and his job better is to become one of history's greatest entrepreneurs. Yes. Go on a generation. Get a book written about you. Yes. Multiple books written about you. Maybe die. That helps you. Some of the founders featured are no longer with us. Yeah. And you'll give him content that he can immortalize. Yeah. And no, he does cover a live entrepreneurs. He made three episodes about Larry Ellison. Yeah. In 2020, he was on a serious run.
Starting point is 01:57:11 A full Larry Allison kick, read three books, wrote three episodes, made three episodes. David's story, maybe we'll have to do, someday, we will make the Founders episode on David. We will just fully, we'll study for months. We'll just emulate his entire process. Yeah. And, and, because his story is actually is truly incredible, right? It's also, he was toiling. Yeah. He was toiling away. Yeah. For a year. nobody knew his name yeah um when i i i discovered the show i knew from like i just knew from from 20 minutes listening that he was special yeah talent and um i don't know if i was i think i was one of the first few uh i had to be one of the first three sponsors or something no way um you knew this
Starting point is 01:58:08 yeah i think you did mention that and i said something that was totally In hindsight, so offensive, I was like, would you consider, like, selling? Because he didn't, he wasn't generating, like, you know, a ton of ad revenue at the time. I was like, look, you can probably make more. And he was like, no, I'm not, not interested. But thank you for the offer. And knowing David now, he was thinking, like, I would not sell found out of the podcast for $100 billion. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Starting point is 01:58:35 It is funny how Senra's impact and his like his cachet in Silicon Valley and business broadly is like massive and he's never written about. Like if you were to actually try and do a founder's episode about David Senra, it would be very hard because he's not someone that people just like profile. He's never really done. He doesn't do a lot of press, doesn't try to do press and also gets left out of like articles because he just exists in this in this like, in this like, in this completely insider space where he doesn't really break out all the time he doesn't cause a lot of controversy doesn't get canceled by random people he's not out there like duking it out and so I think the mainstream media just doesn't realize how big he is in the podcasting world and so you have this you have this weird dynamic where it would be
Starting point is 01:59:22 extremely hard because he wouldn't just be like oh yeah just pull up like one of the many profiles on him like there are profiles about a lot of people uh there aren't that many about him i think by this time next year people have i think they'll pick up on it yeah woken up and written the the proper profile numeral hq.com sales tax on autopilot spend less than five minutes per month on sales tax compliance uh we're getting a little bit of an eras tour going on andrew ross sorkin another is on a book tour this is going to be this is going to be close to eras tour level fervor and revenue it's going to be listomania level i think people will be shaking, crying. If you're big into financial journalism, fantastic research, business
Starting point is 02:00:05 histories, you're going to want to attend this. Andrew Ross Sorkin is on tour for his new book, 1929. It's a, like, minute by minute account of the Great Depression, how it happened, who was in the room at a very concrete level. I talked to him a little bit about it. It seems like a fantastic book. I'm very excited for this. He's been working on it for years. Yes. And just a completely different take on the story that you've heard many times about, you've heard it at an abstract level of like there was, there was a financial bubble. The person who was shining the shoes was giving stock tips and there were all these different accounts. And you've heard them at a very high level about the 1929 bubble. But I don't think the story's ever been told at this level of detail. So very excited for this, obviously. It's one for the finance head. more than the I just think anybody that's I think this will be exciting period and if you are in any of these cities on these dates I highly recommend going and checking it out and and joining Andrew Ross Sorkland for a tour of 1929 his latest book Matt Palmer hit the timeline last week and said there is insane demand for people who can understand and explain technology in a compelling way Zephy went viral by saying sales it's called sales else kind of a kind of kind of a kind of a do you think Matt was getting at
Starting point is 02:01:31 that like what was Matt because Matt is is I think Gabby Goldberg was also saying this is another word for comms calm like comms and it's in its purest form is not about just connecting you to yeah like media and managing those relationships it's about like figuring out how to position your position your product and generate attention in your market and drive revenue and all these other things. No, Listomania is a real phenomenon during when Franz List would play,
Starting point is 02:02:03 people would shake and cry and be so excited and faint. It's a popular thing. Tyler, you're familiar with Listomania? Oh, you gotta get up to date on Franz List. It's great, great music. 2.6 million in the chat asked when will TBPN go on tour? That's a great question. We have a lot more to build here in the studio,
Starting point is 02:02:24 a lot more to do with the show as it is, But live events would be fun. We'd want to put our own twist on them, of course. So we will be figuring that out in the future. Until then, we will be telling you about fin.a. AI, the number one AI agent for customer service, number one in performance benchmarks, number one in competitive bakeoffs,
Starting point is 02:02:42 number one ranking on G2. You've seen their billboards all around. Silicon Valley, go check them out. Trunk fan, shares. The R-slash-I-Pod subreddit is full of Gen Z and Gen Alpha kids recommending which MP3 player to buy and bring to school after majority of U.S. states have banned smartphones from the classrooms. Oh, that's interesting. People are reselling old iPods for $500 plus on eBay. Old is new.
Starting point is 02:03:09 This is interesting. We had a viral Instagram short talking about the fact that the iPod might be coming, the older iPod might be coming off of patent, and so there might be an opportunity to a new version of it. Like the play, if you just wanted to generate return, clearly a play would have been to go back and just buy, if you could go back in time, just buy Apple products, hold them, don't box them, etc. Yeah. The question is, are people going to attach incredible value to the iPhone 15? Yeah, yeah. The 16, the 17, are there going to be specific generations? I think the original iPhone trades above its value.
Starting point is 02:03:53 I don't think the iPhone 6 does, for example. Really? Yeah, yeah, I'm pretty sure. That's interesting. That most of them lose value. And even something like the original iPhone, I don't think it's outperformed the stock market. So it's very much like the collectible car market where even if you're in, unless you're in the absolutely best performing car, even if you're in a car that, like, held its value and went up in value, like, I believe the Carrera GT has not outperform the stock market, even though it's maybe doubled or tripled in value.
Starting point is 02:04:23 it's it's you know mid 1.5 million dollar car yes you can buy a brand you can buy a brand new iPhone 6 16 gigabyte yeah silver unlocked how much oh actually okay this is interesting so so the first result yep is just new when you can tell the box is open second one is the iPhone 6 factory sealed unopened investment grade going for 5,000 5,000 but is it's it's it's a is it going to sell, I wonder. But 5,000, that's a lot. For an iPhone 6, you said? Yeah. Okay, that's a good return, actually. That was a $500 product at the time. Okay, but here's another one selling for, that's sealed for $88. Okay, okay. I think the market might Which one am I going to buy? I mean, yeah, probably. Well, is one of them signed by
Starting point is 02:05:13 Tim Cook or Steve Jobs? I mean, it's signed iPhone. Signed iPhone. Very easy. Anyway, Antonio Garcia Martinez has an interesting anecdote here. hyperliquid is generating more than $1.2 billion in net income, surpassing Nasdaq's 2024 net income of $1.133 billion. Remarkably, it achieves this with a workforce 832 times smaller while directing 98% of revenue to hype token buybacks. And Antonio says, funny that the proverbial four-person unicorn was achieved faster in crypto than AI. Well, and this has happened before, there was a, there's a Y-combinator company called, like, X, A. I remember you, yeah, you were talking about this.
Starting point is 02:05:58 Were they a unicorn? It came out of a batch that we covered. I don't know if they've been valued at a single-in-form, but they were doing like hundreds of millions of revenue. Yeah, yeah. I think comparing hyper-liquid, which is like it is more of like an exchange product to an actual stock exchange. Is like that? I mean, it's not the craziest comparison. Yeah.
Starting point is 02:06:18 I mean, it still sounds crazy to be like. you know, tiny company generating. No, no, no, no, it is remarkable. I mean, you could go further. Bitcoin, it's a trillion dollar asset. It's a one-person unicorn, right? Or maybe a couple contributors, but mostly, you know, extremely tiny, extremely high revenue per employee.
Starting point is 02:06:41 But yeah, wild. I still think we will probably see the four-person unicorn in AI eventually, but we'll need to keep tracking it. Can we pull up this video in the timeline tab? And while we do that, let me tell you about Adio, customer relationship magic. Adio is the AI Native CRM that builds scales and grows your company to the next level.
Starting point is 02:07:05 They need a stock ticker, CRM 2. CRM AI, that could be AI CRM. Five-letter stock ticker. I don't think you can do five-letter stock ticker yet. We know some people at NICC. That would be a whole, it's like the new like dot a i domains came out or dot xyz domains came out there's like this flourishing of of new domains that flood the market uh if if one of the exchanges went to five letter tickers
Starting point is 02:07:33 that could be that could be bullish anyway uh you wanted to pull up a video what do you got for us roon has a post here highlighting this new humanoid demo okay let's play it let's pull it up we can't see it there we go whoa that is so it has some feature that gets it to it just pops right back up that's remarkable wow that slowmo is really insane gets kicked over it slips pops up that's so fast that's so fast i think i think a use case for humanoids that this is crazy people are always talk about humanoids oh they're going to fold fold your laundry yes yes i just want to be able to box one huge market for shadow boxing right now yeah yeah yeah under monetized when you can just kind of be you know throwing you know
Starting point is 02:08:23 haymakers just i mean you can go as hard as you want i guess it's hard as you want and you can train the robot robot to all right you can punch back but just like don't don't don't take my head off kind of thing that is well hopefully there's no bucks that is that is wild video we keep those do we know what company produce that is a unitary I think this is pretty cool let them let them go public in the US yeah yeah and then in five years we're like we have seven delays in the divest sure there's going to be there's concepts of a plan to get unitary to divest in the United States who knows anyway speaking of tech in Washington Wilmanitis has a little thread for us the cultures of
Starting point is 02:09:10 tech in Washington are fundamentally incompatible says Will Mennitus in tech the foundation of a good career the foundation the foundations are reckless sharing of favors expecting nothing in return endorsing young ideas and people and public networks of influence in Washington any of these will end you says well in the fullness of time tech will end up having dramatically less influence on American politics than finance or any other industry that was once a similar size we are used to infinite positive sum games, tech came in like a conquering army, and we will be run out by the midterms. It will be a record year for lobbying firm profits, certainly a record year for state house lobbyists,
Starting point is 02:09:52 as tech learns their ABCs of government, and you should expect a lot of consolidation and retirements in this space. I love that. But the number of bills will be an all-time low. This two will fade. If I had to make a trade, I would be willing to bet that we will have two vice presidents that spent some of their career as venture capitalists before we have a tech native lobbying firm with over $10 million in durable bookings. And Tay Kim says, I think that this is generally true for small to medium-sized startups growing rapidly, but as companies grow larger, the bureaucracy, empire building, power warfare, gaming of metrics, and internal politics creep in.
Starting point is 02:10:29 Tech is not immune. So, interesting to see where tech is going in Washington. Will was on a tear talking about... What's your major takeaway from the... I think Will's really like breakaway take this weekend was that oh this is an older post from August 3rd I don't know how this resurfaced but I think it was because Will was saying that the tech industry needs to focus away from the sci-fi stuff the LEAs like tech kind of an AI the technology AI the foundation model labs it does feel like they let Eleazar Utikowski set the agenda for what was discussed. It was like all paper clipping debunks and fast takeoffs, and Will's discussion of this has centered around this idea
Starting point is 02:11:18 that the discussion needs to, if you are engaging in American politics, if you are engaging in Main Street politics, people that actually vote in elections, you have to put it in terms that are relevant to them, which means what will the impact of AI be on your job, on your community? Will it be positive? Will it be negative? it be negative. There's a lot of work being done right now on like what AI means for Main Street for the average American. And it's definitely an open question. Like the models are at a level
Starting point is 02:11:52 that can displace labor for sure. And the impact of that can be positive if it's handled appropriately. It could be very negative if it was handled inappropriately. And so I think that's where I think the sci-fi concerns have landed on deaf ears broadly in America and they've been written off just as like yeah like of course I'll put that in the bucket of maybe there's unlimited fusion energy and we'll be on Mars and we'll be have faster than like travel and we'll have AI super intelligence and all that sci-fi stuff's cool keep it in Hollywood folks like talk to me about like can I get a job tomorrow yeah and for a lot of technology there's been a debate about like, what has the effect on the labor market been? Unemployment in America is still really low,
Starting point is 02:12:43 but are the jobs as satisfying as they used to be? Did people prefer being subsistence farmers, or are they cool with only 3% of the population doing farming? Like, I think that that's a net gain. I think people are happy with that. People, I think people actually do like their email jobs more than being on the farm, but, you know, I don't know. Some people, you know, it's not, it's not that crazy to say, like, yeah, it was actually really rewarding to just be a hunter. in a cave and go out and hunt a gazelle i mean look at the look at the trad movement right yeah people want to return to just going out this was the this is the this is a off the land yeah this is a transposition of the of the the the the unabomber take that uh that the the power process of
Starting point is 02:13:26 of of having the work that you do directly relate to how you survive so if you go out and you hunt the gazelle and you bring back the gazelle and you eat that provides for survival and the further you get away from that once the point that you're doing an email job to buy food at the grocery store that is an abstraction that that makes it harder to satisfy the the fundamental power process that every that is innate in every human and so uh AI could could wind up benefiting everyone but making everyone's job more abstract because it's like i don't even i don't even paint the painting anymore i just prompt it and even if i'm making the same amount of money did you see two people now like if you wanted like the models are actually better at prompt engineering than human i saw this
Starting point is 02:14:15 yeah they used to be like oh don't worry you're going to be a prompt engineer you're going to be fine yeah yeah learned like oh actually just saying asking the model what's the best way to prompt if i want the model if i want this kind of output yeah yeah yeah i've done that a lot i actually go to chat gpti and say uh build me a v-o3 prompt that will describe this particular scene and flesh it all out with the level of detail that will get me consistent video output. But there's still obviously a ton of value in creativity and coming up with interesting ideas. There's still a ton of value all over the place that hasn't been eroded. And at the same time, you know, one day we'll be saying, okay, well, the models are plateauing and the enterprise
Starting point is 02:14:56 adoption isn't that high and labor productivity isn't spiking. So like the actual rollout, like we're looking at like, what, $4 billion in Anthropic, $12 billion at Open AI? Like, there isn't that much value that's being generated? China's AI action plan is we're going to integrate AI into manufacturing workplace. We're going to drive productivity and efficiency across the enterprise. Soham. Not Soham Perik. Soham.
Starting point is 02:15:28 ETW says my Twitter account has more MRR than most. YC Startups, and I think that is entirely untrue in itself. It's true in two ways. Or it's untrue in two ways. There are two flaws. First off, the average MRR at YC startups is certainly higher than the X creator payouts. The X creator payouts are usually, I would be shocked if it was over a few thousand dollars for He's kind of just taking a shot at YC startups for having low MRRs, but when we talk to these companies, the MRRs are usually in the tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands of dollars. Oh, so this guy created an open source version of Cluley and called Cheating Daddy, a free and open source app that lets you gain an unfair advantage. What you were looking for, what everyone wanted.
Starting point is 02:16:31 Well, Casey Flint put Soham in the truth zone, said one day, people will learn what the middle are in MRR. And ARR stands for. Not today, though. Tyler, do you know what the middle are in MRR stands for? Isn't it recurring? It is recurring. Why did you have to take so long? Did you think it was Millie?
Starting point is 02:16:53 And the reply says R for random, monthly random revenue. Yeah, we had a bit of revenue here, a bit of revenue there. We counted, you know, this revenue that was. over these four months in this month. Yeah, there was someone. No, some people say, I am at a hundred million ARR. And you can say that can be also seen as annualized run rate. Yes, ARRR.
Starting point is 02:17:16 As somewhat disingenuous if you're trying to market it as like contracted. Annual recurring revenue. Contracted. Yes. But I mean, to be fair, like there is a wild, there is a wild like gap between the quality of ARR. Like, there are some, there are some companies that have contracts that are so ironclad, they would bankrupt the customer to try and get out of them. Like, it is, it is written in
Starting point is 02:17:43 stone that you're paying that bill every month for the next five years. And yeah, Elon went to war with a bunch of SaaS providers during the, when he got in there at Twitter and he was like, wait, we're spending how much on this, how much on that? And just said, you're, I'm not paying and he probably was able to pull out of a lot of those that were booked as ARR. as true annual recurring revenue. Yeah. At the same time, but again,
Starting point is 02:18:07 it's like if there's a degree, even if something is contracted, if they have to sue Elon in order to get the money back, it's like, or get what they're owed. It's like at a certain point, they'll spend more on the lawsuit than the actual value
Starting point is 02:18:23 and Elon probably ran the number. But yes, don't misstate your MRR. Don't misstate your A-RR. just be honest and tell your investors and folks what's really going on with your business how'd you sleep last night I slept fantastic me too me too I must be why we're feeling so good I only got an 86 but I got so I got I I spent not the full night in the in the eight sleep so I got a 76 it says I only slept six hours but I got another three in the kids bed before. So I got like nine hours. I'm feeling fantastic. I need to get Nate Sleep in his
Starting point is 02:19:05 room so I can like merge all the data together, give it the real picture. Anyway, you can go get an eight sleep at eight sleep.com. Get a pod five, five year warranty, 30 net risk free trial, free returns, free shipping, net cap girl. We must. It's from 2022. Yes. This is what started at all. We must return to an era of naming companies like American Computing Corporation or U.S. The days of cute and silly startup names are over. No longer is it sufficient to just drop a vowel from a word and call it a day. We must build serious companies with serious names. Wow.
Starting point is 02:19:40 And again, this was the browser company of New York already existed. Yep. They had kind of done that. It was the start of the trend. It was the start of the trend. Yeah. But then we got the AMCO. But then we got AMCO.
Starting point is 02:19:54 American Manufacturing Company of America. No, advanced manufacturing. He doesn't have two Americas. That would be the real, the real final boss. The New York Browsing Company of New York. The American Browsing Company of America. People have been having a lot about with this. This meta, I think this is over.
Starting point is 02:20:13 No, the American Computing Corporation or US Semiconductor, I still think this is wide open. No, I think it's over. I think going forward, the thing that I want is it's Cougain and Sons. Yeah, last names. Cougain and Sons. And Chris Amidon did this.
Starting point is 02:20:28 yeah he did he did this but it but it's an evergreen meta yes no one can say but oh you name for company you can take it further amadon sounds like the name of a startup a little bit it kind of works like it's not amadon and sons it's not amadon and amadon that's what i want i want someone to come in with the with the cosgrove and cosgrove cosgrove and cosgrove lc and build uh build a a i er pieces solution or something business process outsourcing something like that uh anyway uh whatever your startup name is throw it on a billboard, get on adquick.com, out-of-home advertising, make easy and measurable.
Starting point is 02:21:06 Say goodbye to the headaches of out-of-mah advertising. Only add-quick combines technology, out-of-home expertise, and data to enable efficient, seamless ad buying across the road. I'm going to let you run through these legendary hacker news comments. So, Hacker News is legendary, Tyler. Are you a hacker news user?
Starting point is 02:21:23 Occasionally I'll go on, but I never go into the comments anymore. Yeah, I've only gotten one really solid post on Hacker News. I think I have like 154 karma. But I mean, when I was your age, Hacker News was like the place. Like it was the spot. Like every single day opening up reading threads. That was where news broke, where the discussion happened. I used to go on there a fair amount. I think I've kind of replaced it with marginal revolution. Oh really? Tyler posts like whatever five or six links every day. Yeah, yeah. Are you in the comment section? Even those I don't I don't read those. You don't comment. You're just a lurker?
Starting point is 02:21:58 Yeah, okay. Well, Hacker News is legendary for not enough lurking. These people really have some all-time bad takes. These are legendary Hacker News comments that age like milk. So, the first one, Dropbox, one of the greatest YC companies to come out of the early batches posted. This is from Drew Houston, the founder. He posts on Hacker News. My YC application, Dropbox, throw away your USB drive. Of course, Dropbox is the way to sync and share files on the internet. And Brandon M chimes in in 2007, right when the company was getting started. I have a few qualms with this app. One, for a Linux user, you can already build such a system yourself quite trivially by getting an FTP account, mounting it locally with Curl FTPFS, and then using SVN or CVS on the mounted file system. Windows or Mac. This FTP account could be accessed through built-in software. Why don't you just
Starting point is 02:23:00 do that? Why don't you just build your own Dropbox? It's so obvious. And I love this because obviously the take was wildly incorrect. Dropbox became a multi-billion dollar company. But it's a beautiful bubble to live in where you assume that everyone is comfortable booting up Linux and building a Dropbox competitor on their own. Maybe with vibe coding, it's possible. But still, I think people are still using Dropbox. The company's actually doing quite well and has not been really affected. Anyway, second, hacker news posts that age like milk, Bitcoin, peer-to-peer network based on autonomous, anonymous digital currency. This is from 2009. And the top comment here says, well, this is an exceptionally cute
Starting point is 02:23:44 idea, but there is absolutely no way that anyone is going to have any faith in this currency. That is a wild thing. I mean, it was reasonable at the time. It was a crazy idea. And And it was, it was in, and the faith in the distributed system took years to build up. It was, it was seen as a, as a toy, and then a joke, and then a meme, and then a bubble, and then a crash, and then another bubble, then a crash, and then another bubble. But eventually it became accepted. And now people have lots of faith in Bitcoin. And even with all the turmoil that we've seen in the market and turmoil in international geopolitics, Bitcoin is now at $115,000 a coin from what was probably a few, sense when this post went live. What was the price of Bitcoin May 8th, 2009? That is an interesting
Starting point is 02:24:35 question. I imagine it was very low, and now it has appreciated quite significantly. Probably enough to buy a luxury watch on Bezzle. Go to getbezzle.com. Your Bezle concierge is available now to source you any watch on the planet. Seriously, any watch. Tyler, do you have the price of Bitcoin? So, everywhere I go, just says zero. Yeah, so zero. No, but here's, here's the story. Yes. So it didn't have a market value at the time. I'm sure it was free. Yeah, it was basically free. It was free. The first recorded real world transaction for Bitcoin occurred over a year later on May 22, 2010. No way. When a guy bought two pizza. That was the pizza transaction? Two pizzas for 10,000. Wow, I didn't realize it was that old. That is, that is crazy. Somebody was posting about this on Hacker News in 2000. a year before the pizza transaction. That is crazy. I mean, the pizza transaction is famous, famous. How many, how many bitcoins was it? It was like 10,000. I wonder if there'll be
Starting point is 02:25:36 another for two pizzas. I wonder if there will ever be another trade. Like that? Where you could just pick up. They should make a whole documentary about that trade, where that Bitcoin went. Did the next person hold? Did the next person hold how the value accrued? Fantastic. Anyway, in 2020, in 2023, this is a more recent Hacker News comment that age like milk. Michael Truel from Cursor now worth, I think, in the secondary market trading almost north of 20 billion, certainly north of 10 billion. A massive company used by probably millions of developers at this point, posts on Hacker News, Cursor, a code editor built for programming with AI.
Starting point is 02:26:20 And the top comment from YAC account 4 on March 24th of 2023, there's nothing on the official website or GitHub that indicates what this software is other than a cropped screenshot that looks like VS code with a prompt cover, with a prompt pop up over it. And I still can't figure out if this is some sarcastic joke software or something. Wow, age like milk. Not great. And the final Y Combinator, Hacker News, comment that age like milk, why combinator's airbed and breakfast casts a wider net for housing rentals as Airbnb from TechCrunch in 2009. And a hacker news commenter chimes in and says Airbnb isn't just casting a wider net. They're changing their entire business model. This is what two decades before Open AI started using, or chat GPT started using this syntax. Airbnb isn't just casting a wider net. They're changing their entire business model because the original one is severely flawed. Renting a room or bed out of your home like a hotel most likely violates multiple tax and business laws in just about every U.S. city, let alone the severe liability that a guest slips in your shower or breaks their collarbone.
Starting point is 02:27:38 I've worked at a resort hotel. Cities have specific bed taxes. Hotels have to be inspected. They have liability insurance. Vacation rental owners pay taxes. Some cities don't even allow short-term rentals. Of course, none of that mattered Airbnb. and B figured it all out. They paid the taxes. They fought the local governments and created new legal structures to satisfy all parties involved. And now the business is worth tens of millions of dollars. They say if I wasn't a VC, I wouldn't touch. If I was a VC, I wouldn't touch this site. That's what it says? Yeah. That's hilarious. Well, if you're looking to go up market and find a vacation home with inspiring views, hotel-grade amenities, dream events, top-tier
Starting point is 02:28:17 cleaning and 24-7 concierge service get on wander and find your happy place could call cutting to Tyler on that one it's a vacation home but better Hayden identified exactly the trend that you were feeling this is who you're arguing online with and it's just a picture of a neural network of course and 31,000 people enjoyed it it really is the bots are getting wild wild wild wild well I have some tips for those of you who are using X, the Everything app, I recommend going into the notification filters and you can turn off notifications from accounts that don't have a verified phone number, don't follow you, you don't follow them, and after you do that, you will basically only see notifications in the notifications
Starting point is 02:29:07 tab from people who you're mutuals with, people that you can evaluate their full account to see that it is in fact a real person, maybe someone you know in real life, maybe someone who has enough exhaust on the internet that you can, they've established themselves as a, as an interesting poster who's clearly not just a bot. And then you will only see those folks in your replies. And then you can always see who's replying to your posts if you click on the actual post. But for the most part, that has dramatically upgraded my experience. I don't get, I really don't get any notifications from just random accounts. I only see, I only see stuff from people on mutuals with, people who I actually care about. And it feels the,
Starting point is 02:29:47 The actual experience of being on X feels like being in a very small chat room. Even if I have a post that gets thousands of likes, I'm really only seeing, oh, Tyler liked it. Oh, Jordi liked it. Cool. I made them smile. They're my friends. It creates a much tighter, you know, small hometown feel. If I don't like one of your posts, it's got to be really bad.
Starting point is 02:30:06 Yeah. Because if, what's the quote? If there's one person liking your list. If there's one like, it's me. It's me. Fantastic. Anyway, we have our first guest of the show, or second guest of the show, because we already had Bill Bishop on the show in the re-stream waiting room.
Starting point is 02:30:23 We'll bring in Pete from Cy Quantum. Pete, how are you doing? What's happening? Hey, guys. How are you? Doing fantastic. How are you? I hear you have some big news.
Starting point is 02:30:31 Break it down for us. What's new? Introduce yourself at the company, please. Oh, yeah. Thanks. Thanks a lot for having us. Of course. I really appreciate it.
Starting point is 02:30:38 I'm Pete. I'm a co-founder of Syquantum. We are a quantum computing company based in the Bay Area. And yeah, I moved here 10 years ago to build a quantum computer and thought I'd be on the boat back six months later and we're still here and we're really just like humbled to be now announcing a billion dollar fundraise for us to go ahead and actually build giant quantum computers. Incredible. There you go. It's massive. One billion dollars. Okay, give us, give us, give us, the 10 years in two minutes. Well, I'll give you the prior to 10 years, myself and my co-founder spent about a decade in the university system doing what people think of when they think of quantum computing,
Starting point is 02:31:31 which is science experiments in a research lab with single photons and chips and so on and so on, published a ton of papers, and then got fed up with that. Some of my colleagues made a bunch of breakthroughs in the architecture for optical quantum computing. And so we sort of developed a conviction that we could actually build a million qubit system. You know, Google and IBM and others are all in hot pursuit of useful quantum computing. Everyone today can make systems of tens or hundreds of qubits. But you need about a million qubits, you need a huge system. And so we sort of convinced ourselves that we could actually build that quickly through leverage of the
Starting point is 02:32:13 semiconductor industry and we moved to Silicon Valley basically to build the organization that would do that that meant taking weird devices like single photon sources and single photon detectors that you know you can't find in a regular manufacturing process and putting them into a commercial favs so we spent north of a hundred million dollars and many many years putting superconductors and single photon devices into global foundries fab which is very big, very mature commercial semiconductor foundry in upstate New York, last remaining bastion of pure play semiconductor manufacturing in the United States.
Starting point is 02:32:53 And so, yeah, like big emphasis on semiconductors, basically, for many years. We were doing other stuff as well, kind of architecture and algorithms and systems and so on, but really spending money on semiconductors. Now we have these wafers. We can make, like, high volume, we can manufacture and improve. high volume the devices that we need and so our emphasis is sort of switching towards building data center like machines and so last year we announced about a billion dollar Australian deal with the Australian government for us to build our
Starting point is 02:33:26 system just outside Brisbane a few months later we announced that we'd be the anchor tenant of a new 500 million dollar quantum computing campus on the south side of Chicago former US steel site used to make a million tons of steel a year we are honored to be breaking ground there in a very, very short period of time. And yeah, just thrilled to be at this level of maturity and sort of readiness now to actually realize these systems. How does the Australian government even assess something like this? I feel like the government is not known. I mean, at least the U.S. government's not really known for having like tons of technical expertise internally. Famous examples of like the government struggling to build.
Starting point is 02:34:11 CRUD app for, you know, registering your healthcare information, uh, it feels like the technical due diligence to understand how to underwrite that investment and then actually get any sort of value out of it. I mean, you have to rewrite systems to actually write something that's going to run on a quantum computer, correct? Like what was that, what was that deal like? What was that, what is Australia optimistic about in having a billion dollar facility? Yeah, I mean, governments, uh, struggle terribly. to build CRUD apps, but the entire might of Silicon Valley also struggles to build a good to-do list app.
Starting point is 02:34:46 There is still no good to-do list as far as I'm concerned. I have a sort of provocative thesis that building to-do lists is actually harder than building quantum computers, but that one will get me in trouble. But governments have excelled, obviously, in Manhattan projects and James Webb Space Telescope and space shuttle and you name it,
Starting point is 02:35:07 like semiconductors, the internet, And you can also look at companies like SpaceX and Tesla and TSM and ASML, like the pillars of our economy and our advanced society, those companies wouldn't be the companies that they are today without literally billions of non-dilative government support in every case. And so I don't think it's unusual that a government supports this. I think governments increasingly understand that hard technology and this kind of frontier technology, is sovereign and strategic and dangerous if you don't pay attention to it. We see that very acutely with semiconductors and AI supercomputers. And then you asked about the sort of diligence. So the chief scientist of Australia spent about 18 months together with a pretty big team
Starting point is 02:36:01 evaluating what we're doing. They came to our labs and held us by the scruff of the neck and made us reproduce measurements that we were claiming. There was a Freedom of Information Act request that revealed her emails early in that process. And her emails revealed that she was highly skeptical of us when she first met us. And the Australian press wrote about this in the frame of like, you know, chief scientist highly skeptical of cyquantum claims, which I'm like, what do you want her to be? Do you want to be like highly prejudiced?
Starting point is 02:36:33 It's her job to be skeptical. Yeah. And, you know, we were just like super gratified by the end of that process that, um, um, um, um, um, Obviously, after speaking to a lot of different outfits, they chose us. And then in the US, go ahead. Sorry to cut you off, but what is, so the Australian government, you guys are partnering with them, what is the value that they're hoping to get out of this project? Yeah, so I mean, I think like if you look at semiconductor fabs, if you look at the current
Starting point is 02:37:06 effort to get DSMC into Arizona, if you look at some of the sort of force trading that's going on around the location of AI supercomputers, I think nations now understand that it is strategically important where these systems are built. And when the US incentivizes TSM to build in Arizona, the US government isn't buying chips from TSMC, you know, they're not owning the fabs, they're just making sure that that infrastructure is built on a piece of land that they care about. to first order the Australian thing is structured the same way. It's worth saying that Australia as a nation has been historically forward thinking in investing
Starting point is 02:37:50 in the academic foundations of quantum computing. So a lot of the basic research, two of my co-founders, a lot of the early work on optical quantum computing and error correction all came out of Australia. And so it's pretty poetic and touching actually that it's heading back to Australia, where I'll start it. What's the, what are some of the use cases that you're excited about? People talk about like, oh, you'll be able to break Bitcoin. That'll be like disruptive or crypto or cryptography.
Starting point is 02:38:21 But is there, is there. Or product or quite profitable. Yeah, man. You guys do it. It's the same as like asteroid mining gold. If you get, if you bring it, you know, $10 trillion of gold to the, to America, what happens? But in the context of AI and supercomputing, like actually like delivering business value is there sort of like a near-term scenario where quantum computing can drop the cost
Starting point is 02:38:45 of inference or unlock a different scale of training or will the architecture of what we are doing with AI fundamentally change once a million cubic quantum computer comes online? Yeah, so we're not going to replace DPUs, we're not going to replace AI supercomputers and And although there is some papers that talk about quantum machine learning, that stuff is really early at the moment. If someone tells you they know how to do quantum machine learning today, you should be pretty skeptical. What we're excited about is, you know, the way I think about this is that language models
Starting point is 02:39:23 now, I visualize them as this sort of expanding frontier that's just like eating through everything we do with computers and by the way, everything we do in our lives and so on. There's a known limit to that beyond which we don't expect conventional computers will go. And on the other side of that threshold is chemistry, material science, drug discovery, fuels, catalysts, fertilizers, semiconductors, like the microscopic foundations of our physical world, where conventional computers have a really, really hard time doing those simulations, and where we don't have the training data in general to train AI models that will reach far into that virgin territory and that's what we're really excited about with a quantum computer a quantum
Starting point is 02:40:08 computer calculates from first principles rather than making approximations from from data and through that kind of first principles calculation we think we can reach much much further into unexplored territory the other thing that's maybe interesting is that at cyclone we make the highest performing photonics in the world against the whole bunch of figures of merit and of course photonics is increasingly being viewed as a potential solution to what is otherwise, maybe a difficult situation in the scale up of AI supercomputers, where we run out of power, run out of space, run out of money, etc. What were the key unlocks that allowed you guys to put together this billion dollar round? It's certainly the larger than most IPOs. Yeah. Yeah. So we, I mean,
Starting point is 02:41:00 it's pretty surreal, to be clear, right? Like, this is the only job I've ever. had. The only other real job I've had is working in a garden center stacking compost. So yeah, it's, I should be clear, like, this doesn't feel normal. It feels pretty crazy to me. I'd put it also in context with other things that have happened in Silicon Valley where people have spent a way larger amount of money before they get to a product on things that are debatably more or less valuable than a quantum computer, you know. But the unlock, one of the biggest things that we did, when we raised our Series D with BlackRock and Tamasek and others, Bailey Giffords, we told them that we were going to unlock one of the hardest
Starting point is 02:41:46 problems for us, which is a new material for optical switching. We had to build an enormous, crazy machine here in the South Bay, biggest molecular beam epitaxi tool in the world, molten titanium inside liquid helium inside huge risk for us and without that there's no way we're building an optical quantum computer the shipping company dropped that into the alameda bay and broke it so we had some trouble during COVID but we got it done on time we delivered we got it built and then the other thing that we've done is it's still at the bottom of the ocean or did you get it it just like fell and cracked okay we were we were like late on the schedule some scuba diving equipment go down get not quite john scuba certified i i like scuba diving and i like treasure willing to
Starting point is 02:42:34 help out that's amazing i mean there's got to be some amazing stuff down there like out on the on the port at alameda it's got to be some beautiful stuff but then the other thing we did you know the chandelier yeah like the golden chandelier that politicians love to take photographs with we got rid about okay got it uh what that's in the trash what do the energy requirements look like over the next like decade, if we assume that there's a million cubic quantum computer running, are we going to see a similar race for just like intense energy production that we're seeing in the AI supercomputer build out? No, it's like the same story but told backwards is what you should expect with quantum
Starting point is 02:43:14 computing. So like, yeah, AI and conventional data center, it's pretty helpful for us, given that we're talking about building big machines. Ten years ago in Silicon Valley, if you were talking about supercomputers or, you're HPC or like building a big computer yeah people would like fall asleep in the meeting and throw you out of their office right it's nice that we're now surrounded by people who are sort of brave about building big machines um but uh we are going to build a big machine and then the good thing is that the three months into building it it's already going to be out of date right like we we're
Starting point is 02:43:50 at the beginning of that sort of densification miniaturization power efficiency journey whereas AI and conventional supercomputers, I think, are coming to the end of a, you know, multi-decade's journey of more and more efficiency and so on. So it's actually pretty exciting that we should be able to further miniaturize and densify these systems over time. Yeah. It's fascinating stuff. Thank you for hopping on the stream. I learned a lot. Thanks for having us. This is such a complex industry, but it's been really fun tracking all the progress. I don't think we've had any, any This is the very first. This is the first quantum company on this show.
Starting point is 02:44:28 I haven't thrown out a lot of invites because I'm so out of loop on it. But thank you so much for taking us through it and actually explaining it in terms that even I can understand. I really appreciate it. Have a great rest of your day. We'll talk to soon. You're the man. Our next guest is already in the stream waiting room to bring them in. And I will let you take the introduction.
Starting point is 02:44:54 What's going on? the show. It's a please please pronounce your name before I butcher it. Sadi Khan. Sadi, great to meet you. Great to meet you. And welcome to the show. Introduce yourself and the company. Yeah, I'm Sadi. I'm the co-founder and CEO of Avon. Avon is a home equity back credit card company. We launched our home equity card about four or five years ago and it's been on a tier since then. In 15 minutes or less, you can save 50% or more on your multi-interest rate as a homeowner in America. We just announced our Series Z last week, and we're excited to do the company.
Starting point is 02:45:35 Thank you. Series E. Hard to get into those numbers across four years. What, uh, walk us through, I guess, um, yeah, I'd love to, I think it's, I think our audience will generally understand how if you have a credit card backed by your, home equity, it'd be easier to be competitive from a rate standpoint, but break down the actual way that you make this work. Yeah, so as you know, there's about traditionally a home equity credit card, home equity in
Starting point is 02:46:11 general takes about 30 days to originate and cost thousands of dollars. And as you know, a credit card takes a few minutes to get from Capital One or Bank of America, any great bank. And so we started with this mission of how do we make it as fast as a credit card to get a And so we got it down to as fast as 15 minutes by machining down this process for maximal efficiency. And so whether it be like robot arms that do signatures to automatic income verification, the IRS, to everything in between, we're able to compress this thing down to 15 minutes. So it feels as convenient as a credit card, but you get the rates of a helot and the rewards and
Starting point is 02:46:47 the convenience of a credit card. And so we offer 2% unlimited cashback on every single transaction that you do on a helock for the first time ever. And you get it in the form factor that you can go to Home Depot and spend $1,000 in lumber, or you could go to Whole Foods and spend $5 on a banana. And our customers have been able to do both. That's pretty incredible. What I guess what were kind of the key unlocks in the journey? Was there, how did you navigate, like, how has like the interest rate environment kind of impacted the business as well?
Starting point is 02:47:22 I mean, ultimately, there's always going to be a lot of home equity that's just locked up that people aren't able to leverage regardless of the rate environment, but I'm curious what trends you've seen. Yes, I think at a very high level, our goal is to build a product which has the lowest cost of capital for consumers after your primary mortgage. So regardless of the interested environment, if it's high or if it's low, that's something we don't control, Jeremy Powell controls that. So regardless of what the interest rate does, our goal is to come in and offer every single
Starting point is 02:47:55 consumer the lowest cost of capital after your primary mortgage. And we've generally historically done that. And when interest rates go up, there's generally two or three things that happen. And when interest rates go down, roughly the inverse of those two or three things happen. So I think we're all expecting interest rates hopefully to come down a little bit for consumers over the next few months on the next Fed meeting. And the three things that I think will happen are, A, we will expect more demand for capital, More people will use more credit, generally speaking, across not just our product, across all products.
Starting point is 02:48:26 We become actually more competitive in some ways, because if you kind of think about it, the interest rates dropping drops to a larger proportion. They drop affects a helop or a mortgage by a larger proportion than a traditional credit card, which is also a variable rate product. And then finally, there is some kind of trace effects of how interest rates and mortgages kind of interact with one another, where due to the very low historical interest rate, rates. People are sitting on extremely low mortgage rates. But because of the increase in interest rates, people are not able to refinance their mortgage and get a cash out, which they've done historically. And so they're tapping HELOCs to do home improvement projects, make their home better because it's getting harder to move to a new home. And it's getting harder to do a cash out refinance. Yeah. You said something about robotic arms doing signatures. Anything more
Starting point is 02:49:14 to that story? What? Yeah. So, I mean, I don't know if you guys, when you guys bought your home, Yeah. Aftersisco or elsewhere, when you closed your mortgage deed of trust, you had to go to a notary or you had to go to a title closing station and you have to sign a stack of papers, yay, thick. And we looked at that. And if you wanted to get this thing down to 15 minutes, there was just zero way we can do it by having a notary show up at your house or you go into a title company. So we went, well, how can we figure out a way to be able to do a remote wet signature?
Starting point is 02:49:47 And so we invented this robot arm that literally you control from your phone and you could execute what is something called an original wet signature that is acceptable in every single accounts across the United States. So we can close this thing down in 15 minutes. That's incredible. Is that, did you guys ever get, I don't know if many of you, I'm sure. Regulators hate this one weird trick. Well, it feels like potentially, it feels like potentially a workaround that how different
Starting point is 02:50:15 is it for me to move a pen than it is to move an arm that signs a dock, right? Why do I need to be in the room? I love this. This is great. We spent probably, yeah, we spent months going through every single, I mean, people have tried this before, like trying to build, like a robot arm to do wet signatures. There's a lot of detail in our patent that goes down to, like, the exact amount of memory buffer we have to keep on, you know, the device versus the wire versus your phone to ensure it is always an original signature and not just a remote. Well, my thought was like you could spin this out and it's probably like a billion dollar business by itself.
Starting point is 02:50:51 We've been told that before. You've been told that before. There we go. We've been told that before. But we're just very focused on making sure homeowners can get access to the lowest cost of capital today. That's amazing. Well, congratulations on the funding milestone and yeah, I'm sure you guys are just getting
Starting point is 02:51:08 started. John, how much was it? $110 million. Congratulations. It's the week of the Series E. Overnight success. Overnight success. Love to see it.
Starting point is 02:51:20 Thank you so much for coming out. Great to meet you, Sadi. We'll talk to you soon. Awesome. And our next guest is in the re-stream waiting room. We have Lucas Singer again from Divergent. I wanted him to drive one of his supercars into the ultra. I know, I know.
Starting point is 02:51:37 And I've heard unsubstantiated rumors that he might be down for that at some point. Couldn't make it happen today. Welcome to the show. how you doing lucas good to see you great to see you doing great today kick us off did you raise a series what now series c series e series there we go yeah how much yeah late stage two hundred ninety million dollars boom congratulations triple uh it's a hat trick of series ease today on the show uh congratulations um uh what does that unlock what's the next phase of divergent.
Starting point is 02:52:17 Accelerating this platform that we've built. So really taking this into scale manufacturing with a focus on defense work. As you might remember, we started an automotive or a deep technology business. We've built this over a decade, but now it's really unlocking additional capacity, capacity to make the most meaningful,
Starting point is 02:52:36 frankly, weapon systems primarily in the world and to supply those to our great prime customers and to the US government directly. to add over 50,000 square feet to this campus in Los Angeles, but then also to fund the build-out of our future facilities across the U.S. How are you thinking about the footprint of that build-out across the U.S.? We've heard that famous story about there's an F-35 part that's made in every single congressional district. Maybe it's a coincidence.
Starting point is 02:53:10 It does seem like it's important to have a balanced footprint across the U.S., what's the courtship process like? Is it based on tax incentives or local talent? How do you think about picking a new territory to expand to? Yeah, we think about where we can have the most impact for the nation. So where can we be closest to the customer that's making a product that we can truly be helpful with? And what is the greatest concentration of products and customers? Where is that in the U.S.? And that's where we want to be? And internationally, we think along those same lines, but also strategically. If we're going to be near theater, where does it really make sense to have a facility? And the beauty of these factories is they are digitally defined, right? You've
Starting point is 02:53:53 got hardware that can go from making auto parts to defense parts back to back with no downtime in between. So you can be driving a capacity-based model and you can make almost any part, any assembly, one factory, any product, that's our marketing tagline because that quite literally is what this system unlocks and we're not ready to say exactly what states we're going to we've got conversations with multiple but it's really about the government customer and the prime customer and of course yes the economics and the incentive that we can get uh yeah i imagine i imagine people are competing to win win you over in terms of off you know trying to create the best environment for for divergent is that is that correct oh yeah yes absolutely and the states get competitive
Starting point is 02:54:42 You also see the congressional side of this. You see the various stakeholders get involved and you want to be first as well. You want to show that your state or your exact county is on the forefront of this. And they're bringing digital manufacturing. They're bringing the next generation of that to their location. So yes, we're seeing, thankfully, a lot of demand, a lot of interest and a lot of support for these facilities. Fantastic. Talk about the actual integration with the
Starting point is 02:55:12 customer you said you want to be you want to deliver value to them what are the considerations of actually being near a customer is that like they're going to have forward deployed engineers in your organization you're going to have forward deployed engineers in their organization is it actually beneficial to be like walk across the street or is it drive across the town or is it like I need to be near a big airport that's a hub that everyone can fly in and out of I'm not I'm not trying to do 20 questions to figure out where you're going I'm actually just interested in like the business of how you decide where to build and what you're
Starting point is 02:55:44 doing. You made my job easy. You gave half the answer there. So I appreciate that. But it's really partially logistics as well for our customers. So if you think about one of the large times, they're going to end up doing the integration, say, of a missile system. Integration meaning they're going to put the avionics in it. They're going to put the payload in it.
Starting point is 02:56:06 They're going to do whatever their end of line testing procedures. is, right? And if we as the primary structure supplier that's making that full airframe for them can be right adjacent to their general assembly facility, that's a huge win for that, right? And that's almost obvious in how you want to architect your production process for a complex system like that. So as being adjacent to these primes, like walking distance or very easy from manufacturing process, potentially even being on the campus of these primes is, in our minds. And then on the government side, you look at these depot centers and sustainment and maintenance. And can we be right adjacent to these bases? So if you look at
Starting point is 02:56:51 Oklahoma, for example, Tinker Air Base, can we be adjacent to that airbase, partner with their Air Force Sustainment Organization and supply parts directly to the base from that factory? At the same time that that factory could flex, use some of his capacity to do work for the primes that are, you know, in that locality as well. And that's also the beauty here is no one is burdened with the full cost. Because this is a platform and you can share the capacity. You're not asking the government to pay for 100% of it, 100% of the time. You can actually scale and flex and have elasticity to the capital and the risk associated with that capital. geordie any updates on singer the on the automotive side specifically the supercar that you guys built
Starting point is 02:57:41 yeah no it's uh it's been an amazing few weeks for us we've got more cars on the road now so we did our 10th delivery as you know we started deliveries this year so there's now multiple multiple cars on the road in l a multiple across the u.s we actually have our first couple cars in the u.k as well so we made our way on to uh greater European turf with America's hypercar. So I'm very excited to keep building that business out, deliver more cars this year, and then look into actually developing variants
Starting point is 02:58:13 of that hypercar, won't announce those now. And then also our next vehicle, our next model altogether. And that feedback loop, that integration with divergent remains very, very attractive. And frankly, when the government or a customer comes and they come to this campus and they see the divergent facility, then they walk right next door and they see the general assembly of the 21C, the hypercar, that shows them almost the relationship between us as a subcontractor and the
Starting point is 02:58:42 prime as the prime integrator, right? We're actually putting our own dollars in front of our statements there on how you can integrate for full product development. What's the, what's the shape of the workforce going forward? Obviously new capital comes in. You're probably hiring. You're probably always hiring but uh give me some advice for young people that want to get into um doing work that might still be around in 30 years yeah yeah this and that we truly are software and hardware right we built our own software design engine we've got our own manufacturing software but we also build hardware uh we build our our 3d printers we build our assembly cell we actually engineer those materials. So in terms of scope within one business and amount of vertical depth in each of those
Starting point is 02:59:32 pillars is really tremendous here. When you're starting out, we were mostly hiring or I was mostly looking for talent that could bring a lot to the table day one, both in terms of their connectivity, but also their knowledge and their ability to operate. We're now at a point where we're actually able to hire on some of the brightest and youngest engineers and production staff, amazing position to be in somewhere where I've wanted to be for it for a few years. And what we look for in that sort of more entry level role is really how scalable is that person going to become? What are they already showing today that I can tell is going to make them a great learner and eventually a great operator? And then we have the individuals here that can
Starting point is 03:00:17 add to their expertise that they're bringing in. And within one, two, three years, I want to see that entry level engineer have progressed to a lead engineer or have found his management track. And pick one of the two. And that's what we're screening for is individuals that are going to scale to that next step. Fantastic. Well, congratulations on the massive fundraising round. Always good catching up with you. Have a great rest of your day. Good to see you. Great to see you both. We'll talk to you soon. And we have our next guest in the Restream Waiting Room. Kyle Samani coming back on the show for the third time, I believe. Talk about creating the world's leading Tijuana Treasury Company.
Starting point is 03:00:58 Kyle, can you hear us? How are you doing? What's going on, John, man? Good to be here. Hey, Jordan, John. We're back. It's great to see you. Good to see you. Always great to catch. You've been busy. You have been busy. Oh, dude, have I been busy? It's been crazy. Break it down. What's new? Well, I spent two weeks fundraising and in two weeks we raised $1.65 billion. Is that good? Is that good? weeks one point six million oh congratulations I'm kidding that's it's hard to do it's hard to do
Starting point is 03:01:28 wow definitely the most hectic fundraise I've ever done in my life but it has been super super fun were you on the were you on the road or were you holding court just like this did you do oh zoom zoom in my in my office there you go that's the modern the modern road show it's just zoom link yeah zoom out give us the give us the pitch that you gave the investors? Yeah. So, you know, we think, look, there's obviously a lot of digital asset treasury companies out there.
Starting point is 03:01:58 And we want to be not only the top Solana based digital asset treasury, we want to be the top digital asset treasury in the world. Our aspirations is that this is a publicly traded permanent capital vehicle. And we have aspirations for this thing to become a $50 billion plus publicly traded company over the next, you know, have five to 10 years. And we think the key to that is going to be the team. The folks I'm working with at Jump and in Galaxy are incredible. I think we have the absolute all-star dream team, not only of Solana Dats, but of all that's
Starting point is 03:02:29 out there. We bring together that mix of deep trading and technical experience, that deep experience across capital markets function and being a very large counterparty that trades with almost everyone in crypto and the deep VC experience in Salana core and Solana ecosystem. How do people think about digital asset treasury companies these days? There's one world where you're like, this is a hedge fund, and I'm backing a trader who's going to pick good entry and exit prices, and it's almost like investing in hedge fund. Then there's another, which is just because of where my money is locked up for a variety of reasons, maybe it's a 401K, I don't have access to this particular asset class and wrapping a particular digital asset in a public ticker gives you access to that, which, Are those reasonable narratives?
Starting point is 03:03:23 Are there other narratives that people are talking about? Like, what, what, how do people justify underwriting an investment? Yeah, look, there's a bunch of reasons you might want to invest in Ford industries. And by the way, the ticker is Ford. It's F-O-R-D, like the car company, NASDA listed. But I think there's a few. The first is like, you have to believe that we as, as the sponsors of this vehicle, can do interesting things to deliver increasing sole per share.
Starting point is 03:03:50 for our shareholders. And there's a number of things we can do to that effect. I think probably the most interesting is actually M&A. There's probably going to be 30, maybe 40 of these digital asset treasuries out there, not only salon-related, but all the other assets too. And I don't think the market's going to sustain 30 or 40 of these things. And so there's going to be a ripe opportunity for M&A. And I think given the caliber of our team and just the knowledge we have
Starting point is 03:04:16 the banking across, especially Galaxy, like we're in a prime position to execute on that. The second, I think, really lucrative opportunity is in actually arbitraging capital market structures, meaning we're working on getting loans from banks, you know, hopefully in a 5-ish percent, maybe 6 percent range. And then we can deploy that in the Salon of Defi at, you know, today probably close to 15 percent. Sure. And arbitrage that spread. That's obviously a very sexy story. Shareholders love hearing stuff like that. The particularly cool thing about that is also we can even use that to fund preferred share issuance. So micro strategy or I guess strategy now,
Starting point is 03:04:53 pioneered this concept, and they're issuing these preferred professionals. And the problem strategy has is they are paying a 9% coupon, but they have no cash flow off of their Bitcoin. We can actually produce cash flow both in sole terms and in dollar terms by tapping into the native salana staking in defi ecosystems. So it actually makes the vehicle as a whole
Starting point is 03:05:13 a lot more financially congruent than something like strategy. So I think those are, like, the best reasons why, and look, in the long term, we're going to be capital allocators across the Slani ecosystem and crypto, and in the long term, it's obviously a bet on our ability to do capital allocation. Was there an alternate timeline where the groups that kind of came together into Ford went and did their own treasury? Like, did you really have to wrangle people and say, like, look, fall in line or let's do this together? Or what did that, putting the team in the investment? investor group, uh, look like. Yeah, the, the jump in the galaxy guy started talking together, but before multi-coin got involved. Um, and they kind of realized they were like, hey, we really need kind of a third leg of the stool. Uh, so they called me and it was pretty natural fit. Uh, I don't, that's been too much time thinking about it. There were some legal questions that we had to work through, um, in terms of compliance for multi-coigne, but we worked
Starting point is 03:06:08 through those and we said, all right, guys, let's do this. And they've been absolutely phenomenal partners. Uh, take me through some of the other stories. are happening in the crypto world broadly that might be bullish or bearish or, you know, something to keep an eye on from your perspective across stable coins, there's that new Stripe project, there's a few other like chains that are launching L1s, L2s. Like, what do you think is worth keeping an eye on and what's your interpretation of the news? Yeah, I think there's a handful. So one is Solana ETFs are coming.
Starting point is 03:06:44 I think they're going to be here in the next few weeks. That's obviously like a watershed moment for the rest of the industry. Bitcoin and Ead have always been kind of like blessed as special assets. And I think Salon is about to get that same treatment. So that's super exciting. The second one, this one's really in the weeds, but the team at Pump. Fun has been, they've had a live stream product for about a year now maybe. Oh, yeah.
Starting point is 03:07:06 And this past weekend, it really blew up. A handful of creators started making tons and tons of money this past weekend. And a lot of creators from Rumble and Twitch, which are now publicly experimenting on the pump platform, that could really snowballing game momentum and really kind of change the dynamics around creator monetization. That's actually funny that this happened over the weekend.
Starting point is 03:07:30 I was at the All In Summit last week, and I gave a presentation there on internet capital markets. I think that video is going to drop in the next couple days. And one of the examples I actually highlighted in the presentation was the next generation. I talked about entertainment finance, and Jim Kramer was entertainment. finance 1.0. Yeah. And in my presentation, I highlight is Roaring Kitty and Dave Portnoy
Starting point is 03:07:53 as being emblematic of entertainment finance 2.0. Yeah. And I think we're about to have this just onslaught of streamers who are going to be entertainment finance 3.0. And it looks like that's a lot of that's going to happen on pump and all of pump is built on Solana. Yeah, I think those are. Yeah, play that out for me. I think that's fascinating since we're in the live stream world. We don't give financial advice to talk about specific stock prices. But I could imagine someone comes out and does something that's much more price driven. We once joked about somebody was like, how do I invest in TVPN? And we said, well, LVMH, of course, because it's the best proxy. And then somebody immediately, while we were live, created a salon a token.
Starting point is 03:08:30 We had to kind of disavowed. But I am interested, like, do you think that there's a near-term world where stocks go on chain, they get wrapped? And then that live stream pump ecosystem, you have like a true Jim Kramer type who's like talking about public companies, but has some sort of like wrapped exposure to the to the coin that's underlyingly tied to the public company or something like that? Is that something that could happen? Yeah. So it's already a fairly common behavior. You'll see a lot of the crypto traders. They'll just pull up their Binance screen or whatever they're trading on. They'll just live stream and, you know, trade and talk with their plans and stuff. There's never been a great way to follow along. Like what buy and a sell
Starting point is 03:09:10 button like built into the stream kind of the thing i do think that i mean that now exists with pump for the native token of that that stream so that's already a thing um uh i think you're going to see more of that kind of uh streaming products continue to evolve in the pretty near future as it pertains to tokenized equities uh yes the team the galaxy actually announced the deal with uh super state to tokenize galaxy's equity on salana it went live a week or two ago and this is obviously something relevant for forward industries for us with our Ford ticker and we're working on that i'm i hope to talk about it very soon and once it's up we have this tokenized equity then you'll be able to kind of do that same
Starting point is 03:09:53 configuration that you just described so what uh i'm not sure this is correct so ford is already trading is that is that that's correct that's correct uh and And, but what is the, is it, is it, what, like, why, why is it trading it you, you guys, the saying, is this correct? It's saying the current market cap is somewhere, it's 67 million. Is that, is that correct? How does. Yeah. So, so, yeah, so we closed on the pipe transaction last week, but it hasn't. It's $25 billion. Okay. Yeah. The, the, the, the, the SEC has a, so the company is issued these shares to all of the investors who came into the pipe, including multi-coin, Jump Galaxy, and many others. And the SEC has a process by which you have to register new shares that are created, and that process takes roughly 30 days. So the Yahoo Finances of the world and the other kind of major stock screeners only show
Starting point is 03:10:54 registered shares. Got it. Right. Updated. Interesting. Awesome. What a fascinating world. Well, you're our resident Salana expert, so.
Starting point is 03:11:05 Thanks so much for hopping on. anytime congratulations on putting this together it's got to be up there in in maybe i don't know you know top top 1,000 road shows ever the one however much you raised in a couple billion two weeks not bad definitely top maybe probably top five pure zoom road shows uh anyways great stuff Kyle good to catch up appreciate that hey guys last thing um we are hiring at uh forward industries um you know we're obviously building out this permanent capital salon of strategy uh if you're watching the show and you're looking for a full new role and opportunity when we work with us please get in touch
Starting point is 03:11:40 we're looking to hire awesome people fantastic well good luck we'll talk to you soon kail thanks so much rob it on thanks guys we'll talk to you soon the team they put together is pretty pretty wild i haven't had a chance to dig into it we'll have to some heavy heavy hitters um in other news kimball musk he came on the show a few weeks ago uh he posted that he's deeply honored to have been trusted with Vatican as a stage to bring grace to the world with his dear friend. Ferell Williams and Dreo Botticelli and Jennifer Hudson. We made a miracle. We probably saw some of these photos. It's a drone show that happened over the Vatican. He says, because grace for the world and some of the images and videos are, I mean, they look like AI. They look
Starting point is 03:12:29 like CGI, but they are actually... I didn't realize he was behind this. Yes, no. This is his project. We interviewed on the show. What I was saying, imagine being the tribe and the Amazon, Kimball Musk starts, flies over. That is a euphoric.
Starting point is 03:12:46 Yeah, pretty wild. And what what a fantastic like launch strategy to go to the Vatican, like the biggest possible. Like it's such a striking. Everyone has seen this building because when the pope is elected and the pope comes out and pope's chosen
Starting point is 03:13:05 gives a speech and whenever there is news in the world of the catholic church the tv cameras descend upon the vatican of course and to put your product right there is remarkable and so i'm sure the full video is out there we'll have to we'll have to watch the full thing and and see and i'd love to have kimball and the team on later i think that there's probably more news the company's growing and we should we should cap off on this post from barely AI which is it which is stay safe out there folks yeah but this is a trunk trunk fan yes company this is an AI startup called inception point AI is flooding podcast apps yes they've launched 5,000 podcasts make make 3,000 episodes a week they spend one dollar to create an episode and monetize by getting programmatic ads and break even on most
Starting point is 03:13:58 episodes, if only 20 people listen. Types of podcasts go from lowest effort, like weather reports, simple biographies to higher effort. It created 50 AI personalities, including food expert, Claire DeLish, Gardner and Nature expert,
Starting point is 03:14:14 Nigel Tisseldown. Thistledown. And Ollie Bennett, who covers offbeat sports. The company has built 184 custom AI agents. Let's give it up for AI agents. using various LLM to create the podcast
Starting point is 03:14:31 and occasionally spot checks the output. A CEO, a former execate podcast studio Wondery, says she wants to make thousands more AI personalities, including an AI Oprah. Wouldn't you like to create an AI Oprah? Interesting. It closes by saying, so basically an article content farm for podcasts.
Starting point is 03:14:50 Well, Trung, it's not an article content farm. It's a radically new AI podcast strategy. it's Slop. Put it in, brought to your podcast. This is actually extremely annoying. I search for biographies on the Apple podcast app every once in a while to try and get up to speed on things. And the amount of just AI generated content is overwhelming. And then I'm like, well, I could just go to Chatsybee for that. If I wanted that, that's what I would get. I want something. There was a beautiful time where when you wanted to do some research on someone, you could go and talk and have, and know that somebody. like painstakingly spent hours trying to hand craft the story.
Starting point is 03:15:32 I think that the long, I think that the long term outcome here is like institutions get stronger. And so now I've noticed that if I'm searching for the history of an entrepreneur, I just won't search for the name. I search founders podcast and then the name because I just know that like if it's not that it's not, it's not worth of listening to. Yeah. I wonder where the article content farms, like how they've done, obviously they're getting like,
Starting point is 03:15:55 you know, I'm sure some some have done quite well, but are actually getting hurt by language models now that are just collecting the information and not actually hitting the site as a human. But yeah, I think the funny thing here is like, they don't
Starting point is 03:16:11 have a, they don't have like a any sort of like real technical advantage. And so on a long enough time horizon like consumers might that they might today go I want to go and get I'm going to go to Spotify to get the weather report from this Inception Point AI company,
Starting point is 03:16:31 or there's a world in the future where they're just, they tell Gemini, make me a podcast every morning about the weather today, tomorrow, and the next day, and just like have it ready for me in the morning. And that just kind of runs. Well, that's kind of a no pecalum. Yeah. No, that's what I'm saying. It's like every consumer AI app will be able to make a podcast.
Starting point is 03:16:55 What is crazy is that the CEO gave an interview to the Hollywood Reporter, which is basically just like a massive target. Compete with me. Like, how many startups do you think launched after this article went out? Like, oh, it's easy to just drop. Wait, you're turning one dollar,
Starting point is 03:17:11 you're profitable after 20 listens, great. Okay, I'll do the same thing. It's like, great. Classic. This is gonna be the new hustle. This is like, this is something where like anyone with an open source LOP are gonna be like, this is the new.
Starting point is 03:17:25 This is the new walk. For sure, this new drop shipping, new... Which will, of course, get competed away. Destroy the opportunity. It will. But good luck in the short term. And maybe this grows into something better. Yeah, the funny thing is if out of this, they get one true hit.
Starting point is 03:17:42 Like, if they were to make an AI personality that goes on an Oprah-like run, it would pay for all the slot. Yeah. I would imagine that it's got to be crazy fine-tuned, like what we're seeing with Friend, like what we're seeing with that other... that other LLM where you're like, oh, this is, this is an AI, but it's not just the default. So you can't get this level of reporting or this level of content out of notebook LM because it's so notebook LM has a very new notebook LM flavor to it, which is good.
Starting point is 03:18:10 It's default. It's information. Tyler, you have a take? What you got? You're absolutely right, John. Thank you, Tyler. The chat was asking for more Tyler cutaways and we're working on it. Also, I love when Lucas Singer came on the show.
Starting point is 03:18:24 The chat was just, Siri Z, Siri Z. He did the meme, he did the meme. Thank you, Chat. You guys have been fantastic today. Great to see you all. Great to see Raghav and Bobby, and Dak, and John Exley, of course, Ilhan. So many good folks, so many names we know and love in the chat.
Starting point is 03:18:43 And on that note, have a wonderful afternoon. Yeah. We will see tomorrow. We'll see tomorrow. Thank you for being with us today. Go subscribe to our newsletter. brandon tbpfn.substack.com very hard on it or you can just go to tbpn.com you can you can subscribe there wherever you want will be in your inbox and leave us five stars on
Starting point is 03:19:05 Spotify Apple podcast goes a long way remember we still have our arrangement where if you leave a review on Apple and you put an advertisement for your company in the review we will read it out on stream yeah free ads your business so thank you to everyone for and we'll see tomorrow. See you all. Goodbye.

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