TBPN Live - Google I/O, Fertility Decline, Spotify Logo Drama | Diet TBPN

Episode Date: May 20, 2026

Diet TBPN delivers the best of today’s TBPN episode in 30 minutes. TBPN is a live tech talk show hosted by John Coogan and Jordi Hays, streaming weekdays 11–2 PT on X and YouTube, with ea...ch episode posted to podcast platforms right after.Described by The New York Times as “Silicon Valley’s newest obsession,” the show has recently featured Mark Zuckerberg, Sam Altman, Mark Cuban, and Satya Nadella.Follow TBPN: https://TBPN.comhttps://x.com/tbpnhttps://open.spotify.com/show/2L6WMqY3GUPCGBD0dX6p00?si=674252d53acf4231https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/technology-brothers/id1772360235https://www.youtube.com/@TBPNLive

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Starting point is 00:00:02 Google I.O. starts today, and the stock is ripping. I think people might have missed this if you haven't been watching closely, but Google is up 140% in the last year. Absolute ripper. It's almost a $5 trillion company now, 4.6.8 trillion. I was really confused what chart you're reading because it's down 1.3% today. Today. Okay. No, it is up massively. We think in years, sometimes decades. Yes, yes. And, yeah, they pulled in just shy of a hundred, $110 billion in revenue last quarter, and they're in a great position for the next era of the AI story. So GCP is growing faster than AWS and Azure. Wall Street has basically fully repriced the company as a full-stack AI winner. That's the new narrative across Google Cloud, Google Search, Gemini, the models, deep mind, everything that they're doing.
Starting point is 00:00:55 So long gone are the concerns about Google's search's weakness. Because even core Google Search is showing resiliency. Google Search, the business continues to grow. Queries are at an all-time high. They're not reporting exact numbers of queries, but Sundar said that in the last call that it's at an all-time high, certainly not going down. And search and other revenue, which is their bucket there,
Starting point is 00:01:17 is up 19% year-over-year, so holding up well. And Google I.O. generally offers consumers, launches or previews of tons of new products. I'm getting called. previews of tons of new products and features. The Verge was saying that there might be some like AI fatigue, which is maybe an overstatement given that, you know, people are getting booed.
Starting point is 00:01:41 Actually, the former CEO of Google. Yeah, understatement, giving that the former CEO of Google, Eric Schmidt was booed off stage at a commencement speech. That is a good point. But, you know, the people that watch Google I.O., the Google core consumers, they are fans of this stuff. I think they're generally pro-AI excited about new features. Some of the new features that we'll show are very, very cool.
Starting point is 00:02:02 But there is this, like, goal of being ambient and useful instead of pushy and desperate. Many Google experiences now have duplicative Gemini panels. And I was writing this update in a Google Doc, and I noticed that I had two Gemini stars, basically. One Gemini Star in my Google Doc. And then another in the Chrome browser that I'm using to load Google Docs. And it's a really hilarious outcome because I was writing this in sort of like, a half window to the side of the screen. And if I open both Gemini panels,
Starting point is 00:02:35 the Google Doc disappears entirely. And I'm just left with two chat boxes to interface with the Google Doc, which I don't really use AI in the actual Google Doc. I just kind of write it. But there's stuff it everywhere and then actually make it useful, make it ambient, make it delightful.
Starting point is 00:02:54 And so that is, I think, what consumers are looking for, more than just an AI button in a new place. But they're certainly showing that already. The new Gemini video model looks incredible. We'll play some videos of that. And there will be tons of delightful experiments that may turn out to be blockbuster products, or they may get shelved by year end.
Starting point is 00:03:11 That's kind of the beauty of Google's culture is that they have plenty of opportunity for experimentation. We sort of, some people remember all the things that are in the Google graveyard, but most people just remember Gemini and whatnot. So yeah, we can play this video. It features eight cylinders, arranged in a V shape, driving a single cramined, They take turns firing to deliver smooth, massive. That's pure mechanical genius at work. A V8 engine features eight cylinders. So I feel like this got rid, I mean, the video fidelity is incredibly high quality.
Starting point is 00:03:42 There's no six fingers. It looks HD, the motion looks good, the lips are synced. And I feel like they got rid of that like hollow sound that you used to hear in AI video, that where the audio was generated alongside. You can still clock it, but it's a lot more subtle. It's really subtle. It's crazy because you see these. It's crazy because you see these and you're like,
Starting point is 00:04:00 oh, I feel like, this is it. Like, it's done. Like, this is fully, fully done. And then there's just like, we're at 99.9% now. And I want to be at 99.99%. Also, like, this is kind of a nitpick, but isn't that a V6, right?
Starting point is 00:04:13 Oh, is it? I don't know. Is this good for video explainer channels on YouTube, bad for video explainer channels on YouTube? Certainly commoditizing the production of video explainers. I've seen a lot of these video explainers that will show you, like, inside of a rocket or inside of an RPEO,
Starting point is 00:04:29 or an AK-47 or Glock and those get like tens of millions of views. They can be viewed in any language, but they're very intense from a, from a CGI perspective. You have to go and model every little detail, every pin in the weapon or whatever the object is that's being visualized in this particular video explainer. Close to being on command and then the question is where does the value sit? Because if you prompt YouTube and you ask for a video explainer of, you know, a chair, break it down, explode it, show me the innards. Will it just do it on demand for you? Will it just generate that?
Starting point is 00:05:04 Or will this still sit below the creators? Yeah, I've always had the question at what point do you go to YouTube and there's just a series of videos waiting for you that were generated based on your interests, right? Sometimes, you know, you might be going to YouTube because your favorite. sports team just played and you want some analysis on the game or you know your favorite fighter or something like that or some news is happening and it doesn't seem like we're that far from a future where you land on on youtube and youtube is just again fully generated a video based on what it knows about uh your interests that said that would cause potentially a creator strike yeah because it's youtube starting to compete against their own content producers on the platform.
Starting point is 00:05:55 Yeah. So we'll see. Yeah, at least in the interim, it feels like the dawn of stock footage. YouTubers have been creating these, have been using these tools for a long time. They have been getting cheaper. Even the CGI world has become increasingly commoditized every year as you get more to templates and the tools become cheaper. Let's watch this other science explainer from the timeline.
Starting point is 00:06:17 Gemini Omni explains science with video. Thanks a lot for this, says Chetoslua. Now every student will get a custom video for the topic of science and math. I'm so happy while typing. I want to see all your action into this. This is about photosynthesis, I think. Every color of the rainbow. As this light enters our atmosphere, it crashes into molecules of nitrogen and oxygen.
Starting point is 00:06:44 This triggers a phenomenon called Rayleigh Scattering. Because gas molecules are tiny, they affect shorter wavelengths much more than longer ones. Blue light has a very short wavelength, so it's scattered in every direction, filling the sky with color. Meanwhile, longer red wavelengths pass through almost... There has been a big push on YouTube for like, as people ask questions, like, they would go to Google and say, like, how do I fix this particular washing machine, and you type in the number of the washing machine, and it would take you to not just a single video about someone fixing that washing machine, but the actually section in the video with the solution to the exact problem you had. And being able to read a manual and constitute a video on the fly of exactly that is pretty
Starting point is 00:07:28 incredible. And you can imagine satisfies that use case very, very quickly. And then of course there will just be entertainment and all sorts of different use cases. Logan Kilpatrick, friend of the show, says introducing Gemini Omni. Omni is our new model that can create anything from any input, starting with video. I think nano banana but for video. Okay. Yeah, let's play this because there's some amazing,
Starting point is 00:07:51 like different styles here going on. I wonder if those, if that motion graphic transition was created in Omni, because that's something that would you normally bump out to After Effects 4, or like the edit here, I wonder, I wonder if you'll be able to upload multiple clips and have it edited together to the beat of a song that you pick,
Starting point is 00:08:18 or will it be able to AI generate a video? generate a video and then match the match the footage to the beat of the video. So it says give it anything. So I think you could potentially give it a bunch of videos and it could edit it together and do a vibreel, something like that. Swap style, swap environment, swap angle. They've been having a lot of fun with this. The other news out of Google today is Gemini 3.5 Flash, our most powerful model to date.
Starting point is 00:08:44 It pushes the frontier of intelligence speed and cost, putting 3.5 Flash in a class of its own. We spent the last six months making sure Flash is great for real wood use cases. It's the strongest agenetic coding model yet from Google. It delivers frontier level performance at 4x, the speed of comparable frontier models, often at less than half the cost. So dominating the Pareto Frontier has been the goal for a long time. The speed is being heralded as a key feature. Google just showed a demo of Gemini Flash running between 600 and 1400 tokens per second on TPU 8i, it peaked out around 1480 talks tokens per second, with an average of around 800 tokens per second,
Starting point is 00:09:27 so very, very fast. The flip side is, it's more expensive than previous flash models, but that's been the trend with smarter intelligence for a while. So investors are focused across three key areas, not so much the consumer story, more the next Gemini model. So where this fits in, and then what adoption and fusion looks like, how Google through Google Cloud will be getting this out into enterprises, into coding agents. Obviously, they have anti-gravity, but Gemini CLI has not seen as much traction.
Starting point is 00:10:01 And so better model, might pull that forward, might wind up seeing more traction there. Overall, I think token generation at Google is up 7x year over year, which seems great. It's unclear how much of that is because there's more reasoning happening. But given the fact that the Gemini models are sort of stuffed all over the product services, not surprised that there's massive growth. That makes a lot of sense. On the core Gemini model, everyone was wondering, are we getting four, 3.5 launched, and there's a staged rollout with Flash going first. Andrew Curran had an interesting post here, talking about the lack of vague posting. The deep mind folks have not been vague posting about the new Gemini model. So he did some
Starting point is 00:10:38 vague posting for them. At this point, everyone knows it's arriving tomorrow, along with their personal agent named Spark. This reticence, of course, can be interpreted in many ways. I'm choosing to interpret it in accordance with my nature. I think they trained the largest model they've ever successfully trained, probably, possibly the largest one anyone ever has, and something unexpected emerged at scale. They had their mythos moment, but not in the same way. Anthropic did. Gemini has always been a very different model from Claude. The benchmarks will go out tonight under embargo. They probably already are, but I don't think they will fully reflect what I'm talking about. I think they hit something even they weren't aiming for, something that surprised them. If I'm right, that's surprise. That's
Starting point is 00:11:17 will be part of tomorrow's show. We shall find out together in the morning. I don't think tomorrow's show because I.O. is a number of days and there's a whole host of different announcements that could happen in the interim. There's a lot of other things going on. Yeah, has anyone
Starting point is 00:11:33 been vague posting around? Will there be a 3-5 pro this week? Yeah. Yeah, that's going to happen over the course of the next few days. They just started with Flash. Okay, starting with Flash. Cool. And then they also announced Spark, which is, a personal agent that lives in anti-gravity.
Starting point is 00:11:51 Oh, okay. It's my understanding. Oh, interesting. And so trying to make their- When I hear personal agent, I think more like Gemini app, Google search, like Gmail, like the very like the consumer product services. I think, well, I guess I just think personal and I think consumer. But given how much people are using code-clod code for like personal-like things, like,
Starting point is 00:12:10 just because writing code creates a more dynamic agentic surface, open claw, we saw all of this. it's helpful to have something running on a MacBook Pro that can go around and find different stuff. Yeah, just in an additional context. 3.5 Pro is coming out next month. Next month. So not this week. A little bit of a delay there. I wonder what else is in the bag of mythos-like surprises?
Starting point is 00:12:33 Because the cybersecurity one was like sort of predicted by the AI 2027. I feel like bio is next. Like it feels like, okay, we tested a bunch of stuff and we talked to a bunch of scientists and like this thing can come up with like super viruses and it's really scary. So we got to give it to all the pharmaceutical companies in advance and like Moderna gets it and creates like antiviruses or something like that. I don't know what else. But I'm sure there will be surprises.
Starting point is 00:12:58 There always are in the AI era. So Agent of Commerce will also be top of mind for investors since messaging around the Google, the Gemini app has sort of strayed away from advertising as an immediate monetization engine. I think Demas said that at Davos. Google has a lot of capabilities when it comes to closing the consumer shop. like they have Google shopping, they have a bunch of hooks into all sorts of different e-commerce services. People search for stuff on Google all the time to buy.
Starting point is 00:13:23 E-commerce customer behavior seems to be lagging expectations here generally. There's been a lot of announcements from companies around agentic shopping protocols and the numbers. Whenever we dig into them, we're always like, is it going to get to 1% this year? Are we going to see? And everyone's talking about the growth, which means we're growing from zero, obviously, this didn't exist. But where is it going? Will Google have something to show here? they have some sort of demo of a new user experience, a new flow for agent of commerce that
Starting point is 00:13:52 results in, you know, a faster takeoff of that adoption of that behavior. As I mentioned yesterday on the show, we had a lovely conversation with Joanna Stern from the new things.com. We had lots of fun takes about like the AI tools that I think most of us have interacted with. Everyone's used agents. Everyone's sort of felt what it's like to talk to a chatbot. But one place where she went deeper than I think most consumers and like AI fans, have is in the wearables because she was wearing that recording device consistently.
Starting point is 00:14:18 And she maintains that, like, humanoids are farther away. You need a lot more training data. The AI chat apps are here. We already know they're diffuse. Waymo is now boring. But the next big wave she's sort of predicting is in the next few years, wearables will have like a big moment and everyone will be sort of adopting these and contending with them.
Starting point is 00:14:39 And it is interesting how, you know, we talk about a capability overhang in the enterprise with AI deployments, and that's why the big labs are partnering with consulting firms and private equity groups to get AI installed into large corporations. There's even more of a capability overhang in consumer hardware. Apple iterates extremely methodically. They made a big story about Apple intelligence. Was that just one year ago? I guess that was one year ago because WWDC is in a few weeks.
Starting point is 00:15:09 It feels like longer than that. I just remember they did a global billboard campaign. for Apple intelligence. Yeah. But anyway, like the actually changing anything in hardware takes Apple a long time. They still haven't launched a folding phone. Like, they take their time to deliver a great product at the right time. And then if you're a challenger and you just want to manufacture new devices at scale,
Starting point is 00:15:34 that takes years to ramp up. And then you also have to, you know, distribute sell. It's not one click away. It's go to the store or wait and wait for the mail. And Google's had some fun swings at these, like, preview emerging hardware platforms. Google Glass, I mean, way ahead of its time. We're now there with the meta-ray band displays, but even those are not selling by the millions and millions. They're very early stage. Google Cardboard, I don't know if you remember that one.
Starting point is 00:16:00 You put your phone in a cardboard box that they send you, and then you can put it on your face and use it as a VR headset. Whoa. A little experiment of how can we strap someone's phone to their face? Basically. And then they also did the Samsung Galaxy gear at point blank range. Which was, yeah, you'd slot it into like a piece of hardware, but much cheaper than buying an Oculus at the time. Lisan Al-Gaib says 3-5 flash scores kind of low on coding index due to rough terminal bench
Starting point is 00:16:32 hard scores. So I think the big question coming out of I.O. today is how do developers respond to the updates to anti-gravity to 3-5 flash? The speed is amazing. We know how much people care about that in just, like, day-to-day coding. But the model has to be able to perform. So we'll see what people's reactions are. And we'll see if Google can really start to ramp revenue on the co-jun side
Starting point is 00:17:00 or still get exposure to that through Anthropic. It did come out yesterday that Demis is an angel in Anthropic himself. And I don't. Not super surprising, although less pushback on that. Yeah, when did they meet? I wonder what the story is there. How early he got in? He might be sitting on a bag.
Starting point is 00:17:24 Well, who else is going to Anthropic? Andre Carpathie has gone from Open AI to Tesla to Anthropic. I think he went back to Open AI at one point in there. And Andre, a different account, is pointing out this KMT general who defected and subsequently betrayed five different countries in Asia, ending in Japan, jumping around. He's seen it all. Certainly the world tour of AI labs. I guess Andre Carpathie was never inside of XAI because he was sort of the precursor at Tesla. Yeah, Elon, he was poached by Elon in the early days. I feel like he might have been in Google before Open AI. I don't know. So he interned there.
Starting point is 00:18:09 He interned there, so he's been everywhere. He's got the Thanos rings. Huge pickup and excited to see what they do together. He's apparently, according to Alex Heath, going to be working on basically RSI. RSI. Yeah, I think he's continuing on his like auto research project. Oh, yeah, he's been doing RSI basically in the open source world. Auto research is open source, right?
Starting point is 00:18:32 Yes. Okay. Yeah, it's, I think you can read into this that it was effectively an aquire of the company he was working on. Oh, interesting. I don't, yeah, I'm assuming. He said he was going to get back to the education project that he was working on at some point. I thought he had raised for it. I don't think he did.
Starting point is 00:18:48 Maybe not. I don't know. That's always helpful. But that was a cool idea. And I wonder how that fits in. It was always interesting to think about, like, LLMs are really good at education. I mean, we're seeing that today with Gemini Omni. Like, it can generate a video for you.
Starting point is 00:19:03 Now, we haven't really pushed it to the limit. Like, I wonder, is it, like, if you give it a PhD-level problem, is it going to teach? as well as, you know, a great professor who has thought about all the different responses, like, maybe it's not fully there, but education certainly seems on, like, the core path of the models. Going to a computer and asking, teach me something, felt something, felt like something most of the AI models. We get very, very good at, because there's a lot of training data, there's a lot of open source educational materials, all the textbooks have scanned. Wikipedia is in the models. There's so much information that's readily available. It isn't a tightly held
Starting point is 00:19:39 secrets that are hard to bring to bear in the pre-training data. But we'll be one more thing out of I.O. That we forgot to cover, Google's new synth ID framework that 11 labs, open AI, and Nvidia are joining forces. This is to help identify AI generated content, basically creating a standard for across platforms. Yeah. So that, yeah, when you generate an asset, 11 labs, Open AI,
Starting point is 00:20:05 um, it should be auto detected by the different platforms. Yeah, I've seen that on X recently. There's been a little tag that says, like, made with AI. But I feel like you can get around that if you screenshot it. Well, so I think the ones on X are just in the metadata. In the metadata, you can actually change it like fairly easily. I don't think it's actually using like on nanobanana images on GBT, which two, there are like watermarks.
Starting point is 00:20:27 You've seen these like weird patterns people posted. Yeah, I think subtle changes to the saturation or. Yeah, I think they've just been, it's just been metadata so far. Yeah. But I see now the trick with all of those is that like it's in theory, pretty easy to like rip that out if you're running like an advanced AI you know slop avoidance detection system or something but just to know okay for the average for the average poster if this is an AI image that's certainly helpful but as you start bringing different assets and you bring in
Starting point is 00:20:59 some stock footage you bring in some AI footage you blend them together you're doing a lot of different things you'll probably lose a little bit of that AI detection ability but hopefully people aren't too annoyed by it if it's used tastefully. I guess it shouldn't matter at the end of the day. Anyway, do you think Spotify used AI to create their new disco ball icon? This was burning up the timeline this weekend. I was shocked at all the negative reactions to this icon. Me too. Me too. Like what's wrong with you? What's wrong with you? Seriously, if you don't like this, seek help. I will say at first it threw me off. I was like, where did my Spotify app go? Because it's too dark. Genius. I think it was genius. I opened up my phone and I was drawn to it immediately. My eyes jumped because I was like, something's wrong with my phone. Something's wrong with my home screen. Things don't look the way they normally look. It drew my eye. I saw, oh, Spotify, okay, look a little bit deeper. The icon looks a little bit different. The color's a little bit deeper. Oh, there's something else going on there. Peel back the onion. You see that there's a disco ball. And then, of course, that there is a meaning behind it. There's a whole reason why they did this. It's a, the 20.
Starting point is 00:22:07 20th anniversary of the company. And so lots of people complained, but your party of the year. It's so funny because I don't know prior to this where people sitting around being like, wow, I really hope they never changed the Spotify logo even for a few weeks. I just love it so much. Yeah. Right. I think it's fun. I think it's a nice change from, you know, this flat minimalist logos that we've all grown accustomed to. Keep it. Dylan. said, I thought this was fun. I'm sure the complainers thought so too, but when tapping an icon is second nature after being used to it. Citizens said I told my wife to cancel our subscription. Oh, no. For so long, even the slightest change in appearance can make you double take when
Starting point is 00:22:53 searching for it, and that's annoying when trying to open an app. Mass says that it's too, it's too dark, and so Mass turned up the brakes. You're at the disco, John. Oh, yeah. A disco ball would never look that bright in a nightclub. Okay. Yeah, I mean, the black lines, you sort of. Real disco all-knowers. Yeah, that's way too, that's way too light. Well, one story that we didn't get to yesterday that I want to discuss is the root cause of
Starting point is 00:23:21 the fertility crisis, why birth rates are falling everywhere all at once. So the demographic landslide defining our era is gaining speed and terrain. In more than two-thirds of the world's 195 countries, the average number of children born to each woman has fallen below the replacement rate of 2.1 that keeps population stable without immigration. In 66 countries, the average is closer to one than two. In some, the most common number of children born to each woman is zero. Both the pace and the breadth of the decline or defying expectations, just five years ago, the UN predicted that there would be 350,000 births in South Korea in 233.
Starting point is 00:24:00 That was a 50% overestimate. The real figure was 230,000. While high and middle-income countries have been wrestling with demographic decline for more than half a century, the phenomenon has markedly accelerated in the past 10 years. Analysts of data ranging from population records to Google searches indicate that although many factors contribute to falling birth rates, the most recent plunge appears connected with our use of technology. And so this is the question that the Financial Times is trying to answer, should you put the blame on the recent decline in fertility on smartphones in particular? And so you can go through a whole bunch of the charts.
Starting point is 00:24:34 It's a great article. But the final image is this image where they took a whole bunch of different countries and they adjusted the charts to show when did smartphones actually take off in that particular country because America had the iPhone moment in 2007, but different countries got wide smartphone adoption or 4G or actual rollout of cell phones or smartphones at different times. And so they adjusted all the figures. And when you look at this chart that Lewis Giancarlo is sharing, you'll see all of the charts seem to be very, very closely aligned at the exact same time.
Starting point is 00:25:14 And so Louis Giancarlo pushes back, though. He says, no smoking gun, but the preponderance of evidence points to smartphones, not economics as the culprit. Yeah, there's the chart. It looks like a smoking gun. He says it's not, though. He says in the U.S. and U.K. births fell first and fastest in areas that got 4G earliest. Birth rates were stable in the United States, UK, Australia until 2007, in France and Poland until 2009.
Starting point is 00:25:40 Mexico and Indonesia until 2011 and Ghana, Nigeria, and Senegal until 2013, 2015. Each of these inflection points matches local smartphone adoption. The younger, the age group, the sharper the drop. In-person socializing among young adults is dropping in South Korea. by 50% in 20 years, effect is largest in culturally traditional societies, Middle East, Latin America, sub-Saharan Africa, decline holds across countries hit hard by GFC, and those who were not hit by the global financial crisis. And so it teases out a bunch of the other possible explanations and puts the blame firmly on smartphones. But people have been pushing back. So Ross Douthit says,
Starting point is 00:26:24 on the latest round of fertility discourse, friends don't let friends. share chart one without the important context of chart two, which is the child survival adjustment. And so if you look at the total fertility rate, if you click on that left graph, you will see that the baby boom is remarkably pronounced there, but in fact, birth rates had been declining since the 1800s, baby boom in the 40s, 50s, 60s, and then the rate starts declining. I asked 5.5 pro a bunch of questions about this, trying to dig in for And it had a bunch of funny answers about how children used to be economically valuable and so people would have a lot of them to like work the farm for them and the economics of having a child
Starting point is 00:27:09 flipped at a certain point where it became expensive and and a net sort of a net burden on the parent as opposed to before it would be you had a kid you didn't have to pay for college you didn't have to pay for education or really anything and they would work the fields for you and so it was advantageous to have as many children as possible Do you think children yearning for the minds is sort of like a survival mechanism, right? They want to be economically valuable. They want to be productive, right? Yeah. They're saying we can carry our own weight. I look at all these charts and I just think it's over.
Starting point is 00:27:45 It's over. But then I remind myself to never black pill. Yes. Never black pill, even if it's down. Never black pill. black people. It's crazy. It's really crazy to look at these charts looking at, uh, if, if this were any animal in the wild, there would be huge amounts of fundraising happening to try to save the species. Uh, but, uh, when it's us, we just sort of like, you know, see the chart and just keep scrolling.
Starting point is 00:28:16 Yeah. What are the high fertility members of the population doing on their phones differently? Like, are they using social media less? Are they using? dating apps less? Are they texting their friends to come and hang out? Are they organized? Because the smartphones have diffuse so widely that you need to cut in and understand for the groups that are above fertility rate. What are they doing differently? Obviously, the Amish are an interesting case study because they do have a higher than replacement rate fertility. And they're not. And they have technology. They actually have adopted some cell phones, but not smartphones. So they will use the, you know, like a dumb phone, a flip phone to make phone calls occasionally. And I'm sure that,
Starting point is 00:29:00 you know, these are all gradations. There's not, no smartphones whatsoever, but certainly the Amish have steered away from technology and the fertility rate has stayed high. But even within the, you know, more, you know, modern enclaves or smart, high, high smartphone adopters, I do wonder what else is going on. Because there's a bunch of other interesting factors going on with child cancer. and the relation with how people spend their time. Also, what else happened around the launch of the iPhone? What? Like massive economic disruption, right?
Starting point is 00:29:37 They controlled for that, though. That's the point of the Financial Times article, is to control for the economic gyrations of different countries. So there were some countries that were unaffected by the financial crisis. There were some countries that went through boom periods. There were some countries that went through economic contractions, and they were all sort of affected equally. Like, even China, China has the lowest replacement rate, one per family or something like that.
Starting point is 00:30:02 Whereas America's at like 1.8, many societies, many modern societies at 1.6, all below replacement rate. But China's the lowest, but China's going through like an economic boom the entire time. Like GDP is up at 6, 7, 8, sometimes 10% a year. Like, they're not going through an economic contraction, certainly not from 2007 to today. And yet, although that is a little bit different because it's confounded by the one child policy, which obviously resulted in exactly one child. So they set their policy and they got their result and now they have to sort of contend with that the aging population. There's an article that Derek Thompson shared, dad books, which this article and some publishing insiders used to describe serious nonfiction books
Starting point is 00:30:40 across biography, current affairs and business and economics, reportedly are reportedly in free fall with sales declining every year for the last years. The trend couldn't be clear, said Jonathan Karp, former chief executive at Simon & Schuster and publisher of the new Simon 6 imprint. When we have internal meetings to talk about this problem, it always comes around to podcasts. Interesting. Saying podcasts are eating the dad book serious nonfiction genre. We've got to figure out who's doing this. We're all looking for the guy who did this.
Starting point is 00:31:12 I do listen to a lot of podcasts. I still listen to audio books of serious nonfiction. But it is increasingly hard to find the time. FedSpeak says it's not podcast, it's kids because the millennial generation, the Gen X generation is spending basically twice as much time with kids based on their age. When you adjust for age, so this is a curve of time spent with children by age. Honestly, every time on the weekend, you know, when I'm holding, you know, one or two of my children, and I just stare at, you know, the stack of books from Amazon that just pile up and I just look at them and think, okay, if I open one of those, I will get exactly three pages before I'm disrupted.
Starting point is 00:31:59 Yeah. And so what was the silent generation doing? What was the, what were the baby boomers doing? Were they just like, kid hit the minds, buddy? I got to read. I don't know. I mean, the podcast creep in, but it's, it's hot. I listen to podcasts when I'm not at home.
Starting point is 00:32:15 When I can't read. Yeah, exactly. Maybe self-driving cars, bullish for serious nonfiction. Because, oh, maybe people will get sick. Self-driving cars are bullish for the Infinite Scroll. Oh, yeah. They're bearish for the podcast and long-form mediums broadly. And the book, and the serious nonfiction, the dead book.
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