TBPN Live - Hims & Hers Stock Drops Over 30%, All-In Launches Ultra Premium Tequila | Crémieux, Clément Delangue, Emmett Shear, Brendan Foody, Sam Schwager, Zach Lloyd, Dara Ladjevardian, Amjad Masad, Angus Muffatti

Episode Date: June 24, 2025

(04:30) - Anthropic Clears Legal Hurdle on AI Data (11:32) - All-In Launches Ultra Premium Tequila (30:45) - Timeline (45:17) - Hims & Hers Stock Drops Over 30% (56:09) - Ford is Scra...mbling For Rare-Earth Minerals (01:03:01) - Fedex Founder Fred Smith Dies at 80 (01:15:37) - Cremieux discusses the expanding applications of GLP-1 medications, highlighting their effectiveness in treating conditions beyond diabetes and weight loss, such as sleep apnea and certain cancers. He expresses concern over the misuse of these drugs, particularly among individuals without medical necessity, and notes the ease of obtaining them through unofficial channels. Additionally, he comments on the implications of the Hims and Novo Nordisk partnership dissolution, suggesting potential issues with drug distribution practices. (01:32:47) - Clément Delangue, CEO and co-founder of Hugging Face, an open-source AI platform, discusses the company's origins, including the choice of the "Hugging Face" emoji as its name, and its evolution from an AI chatbot to a leading platform with over 10 million AI builders. He highlights the importance of democratizing AI development to prevent the concentration of power among a few organizations, emphasizing the need for open-source collaboration to foster innovation and ethical practices. Delangue also addresses the challenges in AI, such as the scarcity of talent and resources, and advocates for a more decentralized approach to AI development to ensure broader accessibility and mitigate risks associated with monopolization. (02:04:02) - Emmett Shear, an American entrepreneur and investor, co-founded Justin.tv and its gaming-focused spin-off, Twitch, where he served as CEO until March 2023. In the conversation, Shear discusses his new AI startup, Softmax, which aims to discover principles of alignment and scale them for humanity, focusing on multi-agent reinforcement learning research to understand how agents interact and learn within complex systems. (02:36:52) - Brendan Foody, CEO of Mercor, discusses the company's rapid growth, noting collaborations with six of the "Mag Seven" tech giants and a 45% month-over-month growth over the past year. He highlights the increasing complexity in AI training, emphasizing the need for professionals like consultants, doctors, and lawyers to evaluate and teach models tasks beyond academic domains. Additionally, he addresses the challenges in AI's ability to perform basic tasks, such as booking flights, underscoring the importance of developing effective evaluation methods to measure and enhance model capabilities. (02:44:08) - Sam Schwager, co-founder and CEO of Super Dial, a voice AI company specializing in automating phone calls for healthcare, discusses the company's transition from Superbill to Super Dial, focusing on revenue cycle management (RCM) and the automation of outbound calls to health insurance companies. He announces the successful completion of a $15 million Series A funding round led by Signal Fire and elaborates on the company's strategic approach to integrating various technologies, including text-to-speech, speech-to-text, and large language models, to enhance their services. Additionally, he highlights the importance of perfecting workflow and integration, emphasizing the need for domain-specific context to ensure the effectiveness of their voice AI agents in handling repetitive transactions within the healthcare sector. (02:49:24) - Zach Lloyd, founder and CEO of Warp, discusses the launch of Warp 2.0, an AI-driven development environment that enables developers to prompt a terminal-like interface to run coding agents capable of tasks such as coding and debugging. He envisions a shift in software development workflows where engineers initiate tasks with prompts, allowing multiple agents to handle various development activities simultaneously, thereby enhancing productivity. Lloyd also emphasizes the importance of a competitive landscape among AI model providers to ensure better quality and pricing, expressing a preference for using the best available models, such as those from Anthropic, to deliver optimal user experiences. (02:58:44) - Dara Ladjevardian, co-founder and CEO of Delphi, discusses the company's recent $16 million Series A funding led by Sequoia, aimed at expanding their digital cloning platform that enables individuals to create interactive digital versions of themselves to scale their expertise. He highlights diverse applications, including coaches scaling client practices, authors making books interactive, and CEOs enhancing internal communication. Ladjevardian also addresses monetization strategies, noting that some users have generated multiple seven-figure revenues, and emphasizes the importance of trust and quality in representing users' data and likeness accurately. (03:16:12) - Amjad Masad, CEO and co-founder of Replit, discusses the company's journey from its inception as an open-source project in 2011 to achieving significant growth, including reaching $100 million in revenue. He highlights Replit's mission to make programming more accessible, emphasizing the role of AI in democratizing software development and enabling non-developers to build applications. Masad also addresses the competitive hiring landscape in the tech industry, noting Replit's unique approach to team culture and its focus on long-term commitment from employees. (03:33:56) - Angus Muffatti, an Australian aerospace engineer and co-founder of Agtuary, is dedicated to revolutionizing agricultural land use and risk analytics by integrating AI, remote sensing, and climate data. In the conversation, he discusses his passion for building robots over the past decade, highlighting his development of a small robot as a stepping stone toward larger welding robotics, and emphasizes the importance of high-quality kinematic solvers for improved AI-driven robotic systems. (03:42:05) - Timeline TBPN.com is made possible by: Ramp - https://ramp.comFigma - https://figma.comVanta - https://vanta.comLinear - https://linear.appEight Sleep - https://eightsleep.com/tbpnWander - https://wander.com/tbpnPublic - https://public.comAdQuick - https://adquick.comBezel - https://getbezel.com Numeral - https://www.numeralhq.comPolymarket - https://polymarket.comAttio - https://attio.comFollow TBPN: https://TBPN.comhttps://x.com/tbpnhttps://open.spotify.com/show/2L6WMqY3GUPCGBD0dX6p00?si=674252d53acf4231https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/technology-brothers/id1772360235https://www.youtube.com/@TBPNLive

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 You're watching TVPN! Today's Tuesday, June 24th, 2025. Keep it together, John. We are live from the TVPN Ultra Dome, the Temple of Technology, the Fortress of Finance, the Capital of Capital, El Capital de Capital. The front page of the Wall Street Journal has the update from the Iran conflict with the United States, the Iran-f fired missiles at a US base in Qatar. Since this published, there is a ceasefire,
Starting point is 00:00:30 and Donald Trump appears to be very upset with both sides and wants peace and wants the rocket attacks to stop. And so we certainly hope that the conflict will come to a close and we can get back to real estate development and golf. And golf, exactly. Oil drops, stocks rise after attack, so it seems like this market is pricing.
Starting point is 00:00:55 This is what Buco Capital Bloke was talking about. He says the start of World War III is a positive catalyst because it implies there will be an eventual end to World War III. It's a new catalyst and that's exactly what happened. So World War III is over, hopefully it stays that way. Anyway, we have some new drinks in the studio. We have new tonic from none other than Chris Williamson. And he was very gracious to send us a full case
Starting point is 00:01:21 and I will be doing a taste test now. You know, if you're following the show. How much caffeine is there? There's 120 milligrams I believe. Okay, we should have Tyler drink 10 today. Yes we should. As if you've been following the show, you know that I have been a fan of Mateina,
Starting point is 00:01:37 Andrew Huberman's Yerba Mate. This is the mango key lime flavor. It's non-carbonated energy brew. And here I have the Chris Williamson new tonic productivity drink, it says fuel your focus. I'm gonna do a little taste test and let you know, I'm gonna try and be as objective as possible. Okay, so this is the Andrew Huberman Yerba Mate.
Starting point is 00:02:02 That is incredible. It tastes like the work of a TBPN guest. Like someone who's been on the show clearly worked on this. Now let's taste Chris Williamson. I did invite him on the show. Oh, that tastes like someone who hasn't been on the show yet. Interesting. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:02:23 It's funny how that works. It is funny how that works. So I mean, maybe Chris should come on the show yet. Interesting. Yeah. It's funny how that works. It is funny how that works. So, I mean, maybe Chris should come on the show and- Yeah, we could correct that. Yeah, and then I think I could maybe give it a more positive review. You're onto something, John. No, but it tastes fantastic,
Starting point is 00:02:37 and I will be drinking this throughout the show. And I'm a fan. This is actually the very first time that I've ever tasted this, it's very good. Very good. Anyway, looking forward to having you on the show, Chris. Hop on any time. You're welcome.
Starting point is 00:02:51 So are we Newsmaxing today? We're Newsmaxing. We're running through a few top stories, the current things. There's the anthropic ruling. We gotta talk about all in tequila. We touched on it yesterday, but there's a lot more news. There's a lot more to go into.
Starting point is 00:03:07 We're putting on our investigative journalism hat. Yep. We're going deep. Also, Hims and Hers is in the news. There's a messy breakup that has jolted Hims and Hers, but the retail investors are bullish. They're continuing to buy. So there's a lot of news back and forth.
Starting point is 00:03:24 Hims ended last week at $64 a share. investors are bullish, they're continuing to buy. There's a lot of news back and forth. And then we got to talk about- Hym's ended last week at $64 a share. It started yesterday morning at $43 a share. So the Novo Nordisk debacle impacted the share price pretty dramatically. We're gonna have Kareem Yu on the show later. Yeah, excited for that. A GLP One enthusiast to break that down with us
Starting point is 00:03:46 and we'll talk through it as well. Huge enthusiast. And then we'll also take you through the story of the rare earth magnets, which is complete fake news. Rare earths are not rare. They're just, the industrial capacity to bring them out of the ground is rare. And the industrial might is rare
Starting point is 00:04:02 and it has mostly moved to China. And so now Ford Motor Company, the Ford of Motor Companies has declared that they have a magnet shortage despite the China deal. And so we'll dig into that. Anyway, let's kick it off with David Sacks. We're not talking about tequila yet. We're talking about the positive ruling for AI.
Starting point is 00:04:21 This is because Andrew Curran has the story. A federal judge has ruled that Anthropix's use of books to train Claude falls under fair use and is legal under US copyright law. And I couldn't agree more with this. I had been saying this for a long time that I believe that the results of LLMs are typically transformative
Starting point is 00:04:42 and very few people are actually using LLMs are typically transformative and very few people are actually using LLMs and AI models as perfect substitutes. Yes, exactly. The text itself. Exactly, you would never go to Claude and say- The author's work is not being reproduced. Exactly, yeah, yeah, yeah. It's being remixed and summarized.
Starting point is 00:04:59 Yeah, you might say, tell me about the themes in Harry Potter, but you're not saying Claude, give me chapter one. Which me something that was available to some degree on blogs. Yes the internet existed. You could look up What are some of the key? There was that website? Spark notes like spark notes was it was a version of that that was transformative And so I I always thought that this would go this way But I did think that we needed to sort it out in court and for some of these Categories of media there probably needed to be deals.
Starting point is 00:05:26 And I still think that there's probably room for something like Simon Schuster or Penguin Random House to go and do a deal with Anthropic or go do a deal with OpenAI to say, hey, we'll give you even more access. Hey, we'll let you reproduce the whole book if you want in certain cases, as long as you're paying us appropriately.
Starting point is 00:05:41 And maybe that's just a few cents for every query, but it'll add up and we'll actually make just as much money as we did before. So. Interesting thing is that the judge did find that Anthropic infringed on copyrights by storing over seven million pirated books in a central repository.
Starting point is 00:05:57 Interesting. So they had the books. And there's gonna be a trial in December that will determine damages. Statutory damages could reach up to $150,000 per book. That's a lot. Wait, multiply that out. That's billions, right?
Starting point is 00:06:13 So anyways, if the judge or the jury were to award that, it would. I feel like a book costs like $20. How much does a book cost? Well, they're saying the damages could be up to 150,000 per work. I doubt that goes through. It would end anthropic, but there's just no way. That sounds like the price of a book after David Senra does an episode about it. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:06:38 And there's only six copies on Amazon and they've been spiked up. Anyway. Yeah. And this is the first major ruling applying the Fair Use Doctrine to generative AI training, which has been a key legal issue that every lab is following. And yeah, ultimately, the court is criticizing Anthropic for pirating these texts.
Starting point is 00:06:59 But. The big question here is, will training on YouTube data be fair use? Because it is public. Like my YouTube videos, I host them on Google servers, on a Google service, but you can go and watch my video and summarize it in a blog post that you post on WordPress and you can transform it.
Starting point is 00:07:21 And I could say, hey, I'd prefer if you didn't do that, but it is fair use and I don't have a problem with that. Now the question is, can OpenAI go and train, what's their video model again? Not Dolly. Sora. Sora V3 on all of YouTube because it's fair use. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:07:40 And the book thing is interesting too, because in theory, Anthropa could have gone to many different public libraries and not had to actually pay in the book thing is interesting too because in theory and throff it could have gone to many different public library libraries and not had to actually pay for the book and could have accessed them in different ways but ultimately we'll see how it shakes out but I mean this is a thing for anthropic obviously is to get on ramp time is money save both easy use corporate cards bill payments accounting and a whole lot more all in one place go to ramp.com anthropic Dario if you're listening I know you're listening go to ramp.com, Anthropic. Dario, if you're listening, I know you're listening.
Starting point is 00:08:05 Go to ramp.com, sign up if you haven't already. David Sacks summed it up. Positive ruling for AI, there must be fair use. There must be a fair use concept for training data or models would be crippled. China is going to train on all the data regardless. So without fair use, the US would lose the AI race. This is an interesting take.
Starting point is 00:08:23 I hadn't even thought about that dynamic, but that makes a ton of sense. Yeah, and then you have this weird dynamic the AI race. This is an interesting take. I hadn't even thought about that dynamic, but that makes a ton of sense. Yeah. And then you have this weird dynamic where it's like, what if deep seek is trained on all the American books? And so deep seek becomes like hyper capitalist. And then the only way for American models to stay up is like perplexities, like deep seek seven, 1776. So they're like fine tuning on deep seek output that's in order complexities like Deep pirated versions of their books without permission to compensate to teach Claude to respond to human prompts. I wonder what pirated means in this context because I wonder if it literally means
Starting point is 00:09:11 like they went to like a torrent website and like downloaded it illegally or if it means like, cause you can like, you can technically like go and buy a DVD and then rip it and then have the mp4 file version it's not but it's not
Starting point is 00:09:28 Pirating because you own the you own the DVD and so that gives you the right to put that that file on your computer And it would look like a pirated file because usually you can't just have a yeah seven million books $20 a pop they didn't spend 140 million million on books. They should have supported the writers. That's one of the risks going to this trial. It's possible that, you know, I don't think it's hard to imagine a drink. They should have to pay 20 bucks a book.
Starting point is 00:09:59 They should spend $150,000 a book. What is the actual damage again? You had the number? $150,000 per book. That is way damage again? You had the number $150,000 per book that is way too high It could go up to I would I would give them some bulk pricing maybe $17 a book $15 book, maybe even $10 a book But they got a pay the issue is that the individual rights holders are not exactly gonna be super happy about getting one purchase going to be super happy about getting one purchase. Hey, 20 bucks is 20 bucks.
Starting point is 00:10:26 20 bucks is 20 bucks. You see it at the back of every book. On the back of the book, it says recommended price. Like, I want to buy one. Yes, who knows what I'm going to do with it? Some people are going to read it. Some people are going to let it sit on the shelf. And some people are going to train a massive AI model.
Starting point is 00:10:39 They could go through this whole lawsuit and come away and buy one double steak, double guac, Chipotle, burrito bowl and think, this is worth it. Yeah, exactly. It's worth it to find this. I mean, fundamentally, Anthropic believes that they are creating God. So like, you want an illiterate God?
Starting point is 00:10:55 You gotta let God read some books. It would be an affront to God to not let God read books. Might be onto something. Anyway, if you're designing the next great AI product, go to figma.com, think bigger, build faster. Figma helps design and development teams build great products together. Now, let's move over to the all in tequila.
Starting point is 00:11:18 So we talked about it briefly, but we wanna go a lot deeper today. So Chamath Palihapitiya has the story. He says, we've launched our ultra premium tequila today in Los Angeles at Delilah's. I've never been to Delilah's. Is it good? Have you been?
Starting point is 00:11:32 Are you familiar with this place? I'm not big into that world, John. Me either. We mostly don't leave the house after 9 p.m. Where does ultra premium sit in the ranking? Cause it's below luxury? Yeah, I was surprised with with the pricing is clearly luxury that's what I would think position the
Starting point is 00:11:48 positioning overall the bottle looks incredible the box looks amazing bottle actually does look like it very clearly it is an order of magnitude more expensive than traditional luxury or I would definitely say ultra premium products yeah and so yeah squarely sitting in that luxury category, but I think you just I think you just just ripped it I think I think there it begs the question like what comes after ultra premium And it's obviously gigapremium Yeah, so they wanted to leave room for a ten thousand ten thousand dollar bottle. That's gigapremium So for those that don't know the bottle the tequila is $1,200 $1,200
Starting point is 00:12:28 750 milliliters yes, and let me read a description Yeah pot distilled from a hundred percent blue Weber agave grown in the lowlands of Jalisco and aged in white oak X whiskey barrels for five years this extra and Yeho tequila has the perfect balance a smooth slightly sweet taste with hints of wood Citrus dried fruits butterscotch vanilla cacao Toffee and coke to gavae. We recommend it to be paired with good friends and lively debate as they do on the show Fitting the bottle is a handcrafted art piece evoking a stack of poker chips It is illuminated from the base to appreciate the beauty and complexity of its design
Starting point is 00:13:03 Each is individually numbered for its very limited release of 7,500 bottles. So. I would really love a new tonic. If they sell out, they will gross $9 million. Wouldn't you love a $1,200 energy drink? Yeah. Just a beautiful energy drink.
Starting point is 00:13:19 Ultra premium energy drink. When it comes in a glass bottle, you pour it out. Oh, that'd be so good. They really should do that I'm sick of the energy drinks in the oh three dollars a can five dollars a can Let's get let's get these numbers up five hundred dollars get these numbers up. Let's do it. Anyway, there was a lot of pushback Augustus de Rico chimed in to the tune of five thousand likes He says the elites have totally abandoned us and their responsibility to steward the nation.
Starting point is 00:13:48 We're on the brink of war, deaths of despair at an all-time high, the economy is fake, and the plutocracy is launching ultra-premium tequila brands. We need greatness. And so he was very upset. Non-Equity Partner had the flip side, said you can just do multiple things, lead transformative agendas and launch liquor brands.
Starting point is 00:14:05 Look at Tesla, Elon Musk launched the Tesla tequila. It was kind of a fun side project. And I think that's what Emily Sundberg was getting at before when she was talking about how celebrity brands, people kind of know the thing. Do we really think Dave Friedberg is gonna take his foot off the gas with his company that he's actively running to work on this tequila brand.
Starting point is 00:14:27 Like no, he signed off on it, went to the party, it's gonna live on a website. I actually found the design firm that did the design. This is not going to suck these folks away from the other things. At the same time, Augustus does have some point that maybe it's a little unserious for them to do it. I don't know. But I don't know why it's
Starting point is 00:14:48 unserious. They have their friends, they have a podcast, they enjoy drinking together, playing poker, they introduced a poker themed bottle of tequila. Yeah, I also kind of enjoy with them. Yeah, I don't think it's I don't think it's unserious. Yeah, I think I have more questions around how seriously are they taking it as a business? Sure, sure. Are they bringing it out to the CEO? Are they trying to scale this into? Yeah, is it a drop? Because it might not even have its own C-Corp or its own LLC. It might just be like merch essentially and it's cool as merch. And then there is this question where I you know, I feel like there is a drumbeat in the news and in the culture around like things have never been worse. Like it's so
Starting point is 00:15:32 bad right now. We're in a uniquely bad situation. Yet at the same time, I don't love that. Peace in the Middle East today. Yes. Yes. Peace in the Middle East. Finally. Finally. For the first time in 60 years. Only a few days after the launch of this, and there could very well be some. Correlation.
Starting point is 00:15:50 There's definitely a correlation. Definitely a correlation. Whether or not there's causation, we don't know yet. I think you get a couple of these bottles. But Trump had his own vodka back in. So he introduced this in 2005, the Trump Vodka, which is funny because he doesn't drink alcohol, right? Yeah, he doesn't. He's never been big into that whole world. Wow. And so I think this was just yeah
Starting point is 00:16:09 How are you gonna criticize the I mean the all-in guys seem to enjoy the tequila at least Trump vodka was an American brand of vodka Produced at first in the Netherlands then later in Germany by drinks America It was made in Germany by a company to drink America. Produced in the Netherlands and then Germany. It's the company's called drinks America's. The brand was launched in the United States in 2005 but ceased production under the Trump name in 2011 when it failed to meet the required threshold for distribution. honestly might be the time to bring it back. I don't know if they're gonna do distribution.
Starting point is 00:16:47 It seemed like it was all online. This is interesting, however, it is still sold in 2016. This was the last time it was updated, especially around the Jewish holiday of Passover. Interesting. Odd. Trump at the time, the brand slogan was success distilled, with Trump predicting it would outsell
Starting point is 00:17:06 Gregor's father. He also said that when mixed with tonic, which he referred to as a Trump and tonic, TNT, it would become the most drunk. TNT is good. It would become the most drunk cocktail in the United States. I love, I mean, the consistency of his confidence
Starting point is 00:17:24 across eras is incredible. In 2007, Drinks America signed a deal to export 50,000 cases of Trump vodka annually to Russia. To Russia. Oh no. But in 2011, it was discontinued due to sales failing to meet the company threshold requirements. Several reasons
Starting point is 00:17:46 were attributed to this. One was because Trump himself is a non-drinker and never drank Trump vodka. Drinks Americas also had problems producing it because the glass used in the bottle and the gold leaf labels were expensive and the company could not afford to produce them in large numbers. In 2015 in his campaign for president, Trump did not include Trump vodka amongst assets submitted to the federal election committee. So. Because it was basically a zero.
Starting point is 00:18:12 Yeah. Interesting. Well, my advice for the besties, you're launching a tequila brand, you're gonna have to pay sales tax, you gotta get a numeral HQ.com. Sales tax on autopilot, spend less than five minutes per month on sales tax compliance.
Starting point is 00:18:23 I liked Mike Solano's take, he said, I'm happy for the all in guys and tired of the tedious hate. They built a popular show, which is hard, true. Now they're launching a tequila brand. Okay, great, hope it does well. Jealousy on this app is unreal. Their success can't hurt you, focus on yourself. I like this, Eric Torenberg chimes in,
Starting point is 00:18:41 how you feel about their tequila brand is how you feel about yourself. That's been a line he's been repeating. It's, it is, it is interesting. It seems like, you know, their, their whole show started as like their lockdown during COVID. They all hop on on zoom and they have some fun talking to each other
Starting point is 00:18:57 and they love poker. And this feels on brand. This feels like a good line extension for the brand. I guess there's a question of like, should they just run ads for a big tequila brand? But we should get into- I think this is way more fun for them. Yeah, it's fun to have their own thing, right?
Starting point is 00:19:13 There's nothing more fun than creating something, especially if you've been in tech, creating something that's physical, that you can hold, that you can put on a table, that's beautiful, that you can share, that's social. So I wanna get into, you know, expected value, that you can hold, that you can put on a table that's beautiful, that you can share, that's social. It's incredible. So I wanna get into expected value, expected market size, expected profits, how successful do we think this will be?
Starting point is 00:19:33 Because there's a world where this becomes a major brand. I mean, Prime is a big brand, Feastables is a big brand. These guys could turn this into a massive company. At the same time, it could be more of a drop and they could sell a couple hundred bottles, couple thousand bottles, make a few million, move on to the next thing. I found the design firm that actually worked on this,
Starting point is 00:19:55 the Besties All in Tequila, it's from a design team called Hello Stranger. They say, we'll fix your brand, we'll give you a new brand, a brand that wins all the awards and sells at a premium. We'll give you a strategy, a unique angle based on insight and research. We'll give you the sexiest packaging
Starting point is 00:20:12 that people can't put down, and we'll give you all the collateral you need to make your brand flourish. On this site, you won't find headshots of designers looking important next to yucca plants because it's not about us. It's about the billions in sales in one of the toughest sectors in the whole of retail.
Starting point is 00:20:27 We're stranger and stranger. We've been doing it for over 30 years and we are the best. As one of our clients said, don't leave anything to chance. They started in 1994. The only pushback I have here, I think Dayjob is the best. They did the design for David protein bars. True, true. True.
Starting point is 00:20:44 It's gonna do billions in its first few years. It's hard to argue with those kind of results. So they announced the Besties All-In Tequila, which is an interesting name choice as well. It's not the All-In Tequila. It's not Besties Tequila. It's the Besties All-In Tequila. But they say the Besties at the famous All-In podcast
Starting point is 00:21:04 have just released a $1,200 tequila, which unfortunately for all of us is already sold out. The guys are big poker players, hence the All In. And the iconic bottle single-mindedly owns the idea. And so the love language here, you read some of this handcrafted art piece evoking a stack of poker chips. It's illuminated from the base to appreciate the beauty. Oh, so there's a light inside?
Starting point is 00:21:31 Let's go, that's cool. There's a light inside. I mean, that's what it sounds like. It says it's illuminated from the base. So I think when you're spending $1,200, you don't really, I think it glows, yeah. Incredible. It's tech product.
Starting point is 00:21:43 Yep. It's internet connected. It's got,'s tech product. Yep. It's internet connected It's got IOT device. It's an IOT device potentially for boozing for boozing Imagine you could link this it could measure how much is in there have an app orders you more automatically subscription now We're talking this it goes from a nine, you know, nine million dollar, you know first run into a nine million dollar million dollar you know first run into a nine million dollar MRR business yes getting up into that we're getting nine figure revenue range pretty quickly it is it is fascinating so each individually numbered for the each bottle is individually numbered they're releasing seven thousand five hundred
Starting point is 00:22:18 bottles so if you do the math seven thousand times nine million nine million that's that's that's how much they're trying to make. Each bottle arrives in a numbered collector's box bringing the bestie signatures. They're signing them or it's printed on there? I don't know. I think it's gotta be printed on there. David Sachs does not have time to hand sign
Starting point is 00:22:38 his 7500. How long would that take you? You do one every couple seconds, it's, you know, days work. Those signatures would get so sloppy, buddy. Mr. Beast has done that. I've seen streams where he's been signing every single t-shirt. That's cool.
Starting point is 00:22:52 It gets really messy. But they say, wet your beak, go all in, and it is remarkable how much their brand has dominated the catchphrases. We've been pretty deliberate about trying to build the TBPN brand around fortress of finance, lever up, all these different cash raises. They've done a really good job
Starting point is 00:23:09 because as soon as I hear what your beak, I think all in. I think all in. What your beak. Anyway, there's been some timeline in turmoil because Casa Zar tequila has a similar bottle design. And so we can pull that up. The founder story over at Casa Zar lies in a that up the founder story over a casa czar
Starting point is 00:23:32 Lies in a husband and wife founder story a tale of resilience determination and the courage to go quote all in Yes, you search if you search all in tequila right now. You'll get a a post from April 11th 2025 That says this is on the spirits business comm that the tequila stack owned brand Casas are transcends mere novelty by merging cultural roots with the most important aspect flavor and character Max Ramirez and Viviana Serialta Ramirez to ex de agio executives and industry veterans launched Casas are in November 2024 The husband and wife do team were driven by passion, determination, and courage to go quote unquote,
Starting point is 00:24:09 all in, in pursuit of a dream to create a brand that would stand out in a crowded market, not only visually, but also gastronomically. Less than a year since its launch, Casasar has quickly gained momentum and garnered industry accolades. Most recently, the Tequila and Mezcal Masters 2025. Casasar Tequila won two gold and a master medal. The brands Hoven and Reposado bag gold
Starting point is 00:24:35 and their Ultra Premium. Well Ultra Premium might just be like a category. We're kind of exposing how little we drink anything other than champagne. 100% Agave tequila categories earning a master medal Casa Casas are tequila and yeho and press judges the bottle with its zoom in on very Expressive nose with plenty of earthy roasted agave and peppery spice creamy and syrupy on the palate with drying oak and peppery spice balanced with sweet golden syrup and charred agave
Starting point is 00:25:02 free spice balanced with sweet golden syrup and charred agave. Judge Matt Chambers, director and co-founder of Whiskey for Everyone, described Casasar and Yeho as so delicious. So anyways, I saw this and my immediate thought was that maybe All-in had white labeled the bottle, but that doesn't seem to be the case. And digging in a little bit more,
Starting point is 00:25:22 some of the issues here, this company's been in business for a while now. It's ex diazio execs. They have patents from what I could tell around. I think it's more of like a trade dress thing. The patent would be like how you manufacture it. Apparently they have design patents around the bottle, which is very distinct.
Starting point is 00:25:39 Interesting. Very distinct. Yeah, so there could be some fallout, maybe a negotiation, maybe someone's going to have to go all in to see, put it all on the line to see who can own the poker chip stack designed for tequila bottles. Yeah, and this could get spicy, right? According to Casasar, the tequila
Starting point is 00:26:00 is designed for those who live life, who live like a high stakes poker game, fearless, driven, and willing to take risks. And so. These are a lot of the same things, so there could be some confusion. The besties are taking a risk. Yes, and I've run into founders before who have inadvertently used names
Starting point is 00:26:16 that they thought were kind of generic, and then they wound up, oh, there was a smaller player in a sub-market that actually had national ambitions and was going to sue and and and pushed to say hey you actually have to back off my trademark because I know that you're selling this type of sauce is big spoon there was big spoon roasters and big spoon sauce makers and they both had sauces that were spicy and they had different kind of logos, but similar names.
Starting point is 00:26:46 And one was in the Southwest and the other one was in California or Southeast. But eventually they both wanted to go national and so they collided and they had to kind of decide how to back off. Well, we saw this yesterday with IO, IYO, the brand in OpenAI where OpenAI had to scrub all mention of IO from their website because of a trademark issue
Starting point is 00:27:09 This is seem seemingly a bit different because it's a design Sort of patent. Yeah trademark. I don't have exact specifics, but I expect this to get spicy And well, you're gonna have people cost Zar is known for being sweet and spicy. That's right, that's right. I do wonder where Ultra Premium comes in. I feel like it's anything over like a hundred bucks or something. Probably. Why would you put a $200 bottle
Starting point is 00:27:35 and a $1200 bottle in the same category? Those feel like it's half an order magnet, it's like 500 or five X deference in price. It feels like they're not necessarily playing in the same category, but the design elements and the fact that it is a tequila and they're clearly going after awards and Costas are. Both are premium.
Starting point is 00:27:55 Both are heavily branded around poker. One of them launched in 2024. One of them is launching today. Oh wait, Costas are only 2024. Yeah. Oh, wow It's like pretty new. It's new. Okay filed their initial trademarks in 2023 though. It's been a little bit okay, so they've been in market for a while and Casas ours execs x the agio right there probably got some sharp elbows. I imagine they're gonna want to pursue this to some degree just given
Starting point is 00:28:29 People don't realize how I think we live in this tech bubble. Yeah, I don't think people realize how big all-in is It's like way bigger than than just tech now huge huge huge and so This you know, I think We'll see how this shakes out but so there's there's there's another thing that's kind of confusing is that I was wondering if they were playing in different markets because Casasar is 40% ABV, that's 40% alcohol by volume, 80 proof,
Starting point is 00:28:55 which is pretty standard for liquor. On the all-in tequila, the besties all-in tequila website, it says it's 750 milliliters, same size, 40% ABV, $1,200, which would be the exact same stats, but when you zoom in on the box, I don't know if you can see this, it says it's 48% alcohol by volume. Can you see this, Jordan?
Starting point is 00:29:19 48% here. That might've just been an early render or something. Yeah, maybe. I wonder where they're landing because I feel like 48% is? That might have just been an early renders. Yeah, maybe. I wonder where they're landing because I feel like 48% is a much stronger choice for tequila. Like you would be noticeable that you would have a stronger alcohol content.
Starting point is 00:29:34 And it's also much harder to mask the flavor if you are dealing with an extra 8% of alcohol because it's just gonna be more alcoholic. It's gonna, it's like the- It's powerful stuff. Yeah, I mean, one of the secrets to those like spirits that are popular on college campuses is that they take the alcohol content down
Starting point is 00:29:53 to something like 30% or 35% flavor in it. It's interesting, I don't know where this picture is from because on the website it says 40%. I don't know either. I don't know where I got that picture. Well, we will have to get a bottle ourselves we will and we'll taste it will immediately tell you yep 42% we wanted to have Tyler taste it but fortunately under 21 of age yeah so we'll save a little bit for you Tyler for your birthday yeah can't wait well if the besties are planning to take the besties
Starting point is 00:30:26 all in tequila to the moon, they're gonna need to get on Vanta. They're gonna need to automate compliance, manage risk, prove trust continuously. Vanta's trust management platform takes the work out of your security and compliance process and replaces it with continuous automation, whether you're pursuing your first framework
Starting point is 00:30:41 or managing a complex program. You know, if you wind up turning this into the big IoT, SaaS product that we've imagined it being, you're gonna be managing customer data, you're gonna have their health records potentially, you're gonna be pulling in all sorts of stuff to optimize their liquor consumption, and you're gonna need to be secure.
Starting point is 00:31:01 So you're gonna need to get on Penta for sure. How big do you think this is? Where do you think this actually goes? Like, I think that's the more serious question is- It totally- Nine million, I think that they're gonna sell that. I think they're gonna sell all 7,000. I think they'll sell out.
Starting point is 00:31:13 No problem. The haters will be in disbelief. Yeah, there are so many fans. We know we're gonna buy a bottle, but we know folks who are friends and friends of friends who are gonna buy bottles There's gonna be people that buy bottles because it's fun and they want to support their the show that they like there's gonna be folks They gift it there's gonna be people that buy it because they're there, you know
Starting point is 00:31:36 they want to just like support the the the Thing that hasn't been charging them for five years like there's a little bit of people just want to support the dictator that hasn't been charging them for five years. Like there's a little bit of just like- Some people just want to support the dictator, Chamath. Yeah, yeah, yeah. But honestly, it's like, there is another world
Starting point is 00:31:49 where if all in was $20 a month, you would have paid $1,000 over the last four years, and they didn't charge you $20 a month. They didn't even run ads. It's free. And so what's your way to get them to say, hey, yeah, you've delivered me $1,000 worth of value and I have it because I'm successful. And you know, this is a great way. And you get something that say, hey, yeah, you've delivered me $1,000 worth of value and I have it because I'm successful and this is a great way.
Starting point is 00:32:07 And you get something that, who knows what the margin is on this? Is it worth $1,200? Maybe, I don't know. It's hard to say, but it's a fun thing to buy. Imagine you're going to a friend's house for dinner. What's funnier than bringing a bottle of the Bessie's All-In tequila and be like,
Starting point is 00:32:22 hey, I just picked this up on the way over. It looked nice. It's like a hey, I just picked this up on the way over. Yeah, yeah. It looked nice. It's like, it's almost, it's like a good like high end tech gag gift almost. It's like a luxury gag gift. But it's also probably really good because it's expensive. So then you taste it and you're like, oh, this is actually really nice.
Starting point is 00:32:37 Which bottle design do you like more? Because Casa Czar has this ceramic bottle that they hand paint. You said you liked that it had the stack of chips all the way to the top. So it's stacked top to bottom. I don't like that. John doesn't like it.
Starting point is 00:32:52 But break it down. I think the ceramic look is nice. They look more like regular poker chips. That is true. I think it's cool. I think it's almost too close to poker chips. Like I would be confused. I'd be like, is that just a pack of stack of poker chips?
Starting point is 00:33:03 It's like hiding. It's hiding. Can we zoom in on the stack of poker chips? It's like hiding. It's hiding. Can we zoom in on the stack of poker chips there? Bring that over. Oh no. Skill issue. First zoom, first zoom bud. First time zooming.
Starting point is 00:33:17 Yeah, you know. Anyways, it is, the Casasar is a beautiful bottle. Multi-touch years ago. The Casasar, beautiful bottle. I like that it's fully stacked. OK. Ultimately. I think it just doesn't read as a bottle of liquor,
Starting point is 00:33:29 whereas the Besties All in Tequila does, to me, read as it. And then also the glass, the glow. The glow is insane. It is in a different tier. Ceramic is premium. I would only give the ultra premium label now to the besties on tequila. I would call I would call they've reset what it means to be ultra premium.
Starting point is 00:33:52 Look, they're just showing off zooms now. There we go. They're flying all over the place. Yeah. I mean, not to not to talk trash about cost as are. It looks fantastic. I'm just saying that the besties on tequila,, they innovated by including the illumination, by including the glass, by including the top. We don't know, it could be the IOT functionality that people have been asking for. We don't know. So I mean, I would give the Besties All in Tequila
Starting point is 00:34:17 the edge here. Now, do you know the story of the iPhone? Are you familiar with what an iPhone is? Are you familiar with the name? Oh, I know where you're going with this. I know where you're going with this. So when Steve Jobs introduced the iPhone, he famously said on stage,
Starting point is 00:34:35 and yes, we're calling it the iPhone. And this was controversial because Cisco owned the rights, the trademark, to the word the iPhone. And so everyone was like, how is this gonna work? Cisco owned the rights the trademark to the word the iPhone and So everyone was like how is this gonna work? You just launched a product that is clearly derivative of this other Companies name they have a trademark. They're just gonna block you but at some point a deal was made I don't know if it even became a lawsuit It was probably just like they sat down and said, hey, let's allow this to happen.
Starting point is 00:35:07 We wanna run with this, we could take it to the courts, but that's a headache for both of us. Let's just net this out and we'll buy some WebEx licenses. There's a article on appleinsider.com from 2006. Cisco introduces the iPhone family of devices. Wow. And it is not nearly as good looking as the iPhone would ultimately be.
Starting point is 00:35:30 But it's funny to see the iPhone, like effectively the iPhone word mark placed on a non-Apple device. Well, if you're trying to build the next iPhone or software for the iPhone, get on Linear. Linear is a purpose-built tool for planning and building products. Meet the system for modern software development, streamline issues get on Linear, Linear is a purpose-built tool for planning and building products, meet the system for modern software development,
Starting point is 00:35:46 streamline issues, projects, and product roadmap. Now, we discovered an interesting link between Cisco, the iPhone, Apple, OpenAI, Johnny Ive. And I think we cracked the code. We gotta break it down for everyone. Get the tinfoil hat. Get the tinfoil hat. I will send the image to the team so they can pull it up.
Starting point is 00:36:05 So okay, so this is how it goes. So Apple, as we mentioned, they potentially got the name the iPhone from Cisco. Now who designed the iPhone at Apple? Johnny. Johnny Ive, that's right. Now where does Johnny Ive work now? Open AI.
Starting point is 00:36:27 Open AI, they acquired love from, they brought him over to Open AI. Who's the chief product officer at Open AI? Kevin Wheel. Kevin Wheel. And what boards does he sit on? Cisco. Cisco!
Starting point is 00:36:42 Who licensed the iPhone name from Apple? Wow. It's a snake in his tail an Ouroboros of Silicon Valley intrigue we crack the code here. It's all linked symbolism will be their downfall The most completely nonsensical skit so Diagram what are you alleging? Yeah? Yeah, what are you, you're alleging that things have, that- That tech people interact with each other? Yeah, that, that, that things happen over time. If only it were so simple, Geordie.
Starting point is 00:37:11 Yeah. If only it were so simple. I wish I had the mind, your mind, the mind of a golden retriever to not see the obvious pattern here. Yeah, the big conspiracy. Yeah, the big conspiracy that we unveiled here on TBPN, that they're all linked.
Starting point is 00:37:26 It's all part of the plan. Pulling the strings. Big Cisco, Apple, OpenAI, Johnny Ive, Kevin Weal. It's all linked. It's all linked. We blew it wide open. We should throw all those guys in our CRM. Adio, customer relationship magic.
Starting point is 00:37:41 Adio is the AI native CRM that builds scales and grows your company to the next level Anyway, we're official CRM. So so so so final final word on the besties all in tequila I think it's a no-brainer that they sell nine million in this first run. The question is Do they do they do that every month? Do they do that every year? Do they move on to a different drop or or does this become something that is a staple? I think one of the challenges of the, what it will come down, it'll come down to product quality, and then the number of people in the all-in audience
Starting point is 00:38:15 that care enough about tequila to spend $1,200 on a bottle of tequila, not in a sort of like funny gag setting, but as like, I'm gonna just drink this regularly. And I think it could be a lot. Like I could see them selling 20,000 bottles of this. You can imagine them drink, one of them is drinking it on every show, right?
Starting point is 00:38:35 It's sort of this constant always on advertisement for it. I could imagine them, they're saying the besties all in tequila. I could imagine them going into other categories, right? and there's a world where they're selling bestie tens of thousands all in malt liquor 40 ounces 40s I would love to see I would Edward Fortier. You gotta move on. Okay. I'm having too much fun. I have a different case for you.
Starting point is 00:39:13 I have a different case for you. It's a little more serious. So I have been in consumer package world for a decade. I've built two brands in the space. Like the product quality is super important. You do need an edge and you do need a value prop that can actually resonate with consumers and you need ongoing marketing. That's 100% true.
Starting point is 00:39:35 But in fact, the biggest monopoly, brand is an important monopoly for consumer goods, but there's almost a bigger monopoly with just distribution. Like if you actually walk around the grocery store, you will see, I talked to a founder who came up with, his whole model was he literally would walk down the grocery store and look at not just the products, but who owned the products. And he would see that, wow, this entire aisle
Starting point is 00:40:04 is owned by Unilever. They just dominate the entire aisle. There might be a ton of different brands, but everything is Unilever, or everything is General Mills or Kraft or something like that. And so he wound up building a company that does, he was looking around and he noticed that the popcorn section of the popcorn aisle was extremely uncompetitive
Starting point is 00:40:26 because Orville Redenbacher is the only major brand and they're not owned by Unilever, so they don't have- You don't hear much about that guy. You don't hear much, so he started a company that was like a popcorn spray that you could spray, a flavoring that you'd spray on the popcorn, it's purely additive, wasn't competing with anyone,
Starting point is 00:40:41 and he grew that to like a couple million bucks, it was great. And I think that a lot of these products, they do just wind up winning on distribution. And what's interesting about this is that I am almost certain that in the all-in audience, yes there are consumers, but there are tons and tons of people
Starting point is 00:41:01 who work in distribution, work in store ownership. Like, would it be possible for any of the besties to get the CEO of Bevmo on the phone? Like, absolutely in two seconds they could do that. Could they get this into Walmart? Absolutely. Could they get this into, I don't know, CVS? I don't even know what the biggest channels are
Starting point is 00:41:25 for high ultra premium liquor are. But if you just think, even the independent store owners, they probably listen or they're unfamiliar, right? And so just being able to take that call and accelerate your sales force and have them be like, yeah, sure, send me one, I'll put it on the shelf. When we sell it, I'll just order another one from you since it's a thousand bucks.
Starting point is 00:41:45 And so pulling that distribution forward into the future, being more aggressive about that, about getting into distribution, holding onto it, I think that's something that could be interesting. And then the fact that the bottle design, there's a couple companies that do, that have been particularly good with bottle design. I've talked to one consumer package goods founder
Starting point is 00:42:05 who basically said that their whole model was like, go into a category and figure out how to make something like shiny and gold and like pop off the shelf. Because you look at the wall of all the products, they all look generic. If you can be the one that stands out, you're going to just have more people pull it off to sample it. And when I think about if I'm walking into a liquor store
Starting point is 00:42:33 and I'm seeing a whole bunch of tequila, and one of them is literally glowing and looks like a, and it has a light up display. This is something that a lot of consumer packaged goods founders negotiate for. They will say, hey, like Red Bull would come in and say, we will give you a fridge, a Red Bull fridge. You know those fridges?
Starting point is 00:42:49 Or we will come in and give you a light up display. We fight for this all the time with Lucy. Like we will say, oh, we'll send you a free in-store display that you can put on your shelf, and they're putting it on the counter so that we don't have to fight for the shelf space that's there. And so imagine if they're like,
Starting point is 00:43:05 every bottle is a light up display. It will jump off the back bar. And so it won't just sit there and collect dust. It will automatically draw the eye to it. I think that the light up thing could be enough of like a distribution advantage that it winds up being a popular product. I don't know.
Starting point is 00:43:22 Totally, I agree. I think it'll come down to product quality, what percentage of the audience actually wants to spend $1,200 on tequila on a recurring basis, do they go into other categories? I think they could sell, Chamath is also launching a wine club. Yeah, that was interesting.
Starting point is 00:43:38 That's separate. There was so much backlash to the tequila thing, it wasn't even the first alcohol brand he launched that month. Yeah, yeah, and at the end of the day, anybody that's getting mad about them doing something like this, they have always been very candid that they enjoy drinking together. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:43:56 And it's not like they can't do world-positive things in tech, in addition to having fun and having their own alcohol brand. I think a lot of group chats out there would like to have their own alcohol brand. So anyways, I'm excited to see it play out. I'm excited to try it. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Starting point is 00:44:18 This is definitely not like a pivot of the brand in the same way that the talking politics is not a pivot of the brand. You go back to the very first episode of the All In podcast, they were talking politics. They were talking about COVID and stuff. Like it was, it was, like they've been very consistent in all this stuff.
Starting point is 00:44:32 So anyway, if they're trying to pump their tequila, they got to buy a billboard on adquick.com, out of home advertising. Straight to the 101. I want to see the one, I want to see every single billboard on the 101. The besties all in tequila. Out of home advertising made easy and measurable.
Starting point is 00:44:49 Say goodbye to the headaches of out of home advertising. Only adquick combines technology, out of home expertise, and data to enable efficient, seamless ad buying across the globe. Yet if you're trying to get the attention of a CEO, maybe you want to sell some enterprise software to them, why not gift them a bottle of the besties? Yeah.
Starting point is 00:45:06 And that'll get you a demo real quick. I think VCs should be sending this to founders, founders should be sending it to VCs. It's gonna be a hot commodity if you can get your paws on one of these. Yep. Anyway, hims and hers, stock drops more than 30% after Novo Nordisk breakup.
Starting point is 00:45:24 This is from the Wall Street Journal. Of course, if you're interested in stocks that are dropping because you're going short or are popping because you're going long, you gotta get in public investing for those who take it seriously. They got multi-asset investing, industry-leading yields, and they're trusted by millions. Anyway, the Wagoovie maker, that's Novo Nordisk,
Starting point is 00:45:41 has cut ties with the telehealth company, Hims and Hers, citing allegations of deceptive marketing practices and drug compounding. I feel like they were, the drug compounding, how is this an allegation? I thought that's like what Hims was saying they were doing. They were like, I felt like there was a lot of press about them being like proud of drug compounding
Starting point is 00:46:00 because there was a shortage. But I guess it's alleged at this point, so we'll dig into this. Novo Nordiska roughly ended its partnership with Hims and Hers after the Danish drug maker accused the telehealth company of illegally selling cheaper copycats. Okay, so this is after the FDA's ruling
Starting point is 00:46:18 about whether or not there was in fact a shortage. So Novo said on Monday that it had concerns about the safety of knockoff versions of a Wigoovie and that Hims and Herb's deceptive marketing of such knockoffs put patient safety at risk. In turn, Hims and Hers accused Novo of pressuring it to steer patients to a Wigoovie, regardless of whether or not
Starting point is 00:46:41 it was the best option for patients. News that the deal was scrapped weighed heavily on Hymns and Her's shares, sending them down 32% in afternoon trading in what would be the largest decline for the stock on record. Novo Nordisk's shares were down nearly 6% in New York. The messy breakup comes less than two months
Starting point is 00:46:59 after the company's unveiled what they called a long-term collaboration to directly provide what Goofy to Hymns and Her's patients. companies unveiled what they called a long-term collaboration to directly provide what goofy to him's and hers patients Okay, so this was somewhat predictable right? Talk to you about this him's has been on a generational run Yeah in the markets because they're one of the best easiest ways that people can just go by Wigovie yes now if you're a Nova Nordisk, and you're like cool We have we're selling through this channel
Starting point is 00:47:25 But then the retailer in this case him's is telling customers as they come in Hey, we know you wanted with Govee, but how about this sort of cheap knockoff this compounded version? Yep now with Govee Can it is probably legitimately concerned about safety issues there can can be issues around compounding and drug safety. But then the bigger issue is like, hey, you're marketing, you're using our brand and our products to acquire customers. And then you're getting those people in the door and you're saying, hey, how about this sort of cheaper, off-the-shelf alternative?
Starting point is 00:47:59 And so I have to imagine that this is Novonordisk recognizing the value of their brand in this massive, massive fast growing category and saying, we're not gonna let you leverage our brand to compete on these sort of high margin knockoff products. Yeah, I mean, like the Instagram ads that I saw were definitely pushing the brand name for real. And there was a while when they wouldn't use the term Viagra
Starting point is 00:48:29 and they would use ED meds and sildenafil and todolafil and all of those different, like they would use the actual underlying compound name and they pushed it so hard that people actually started knowing the name of the underlying compound. But yeah, the brand name is obviously what's- How do you think Hemsworth will respond? Do you think they'll introduce a 10-in-1 shampoo?
Starting point is 00:48:50 10-in-1. That includes compounded- Yep. GLP-1s, Viagra, hair loss- Yeah. Medication, what else could, Adderall? They could put some caffeine. I mean, this is cognizant, rhodiola,
Starting point is 00:49:05 Panax, genseng, L-theanine, caffeine. You got some GLP-1 in here. Creatine soap with. Creatine soap would be good. With all the above. Eli Lilly's the one that lost the patent, right? Because they forgot to pay the. No, I think it was Novo Nordis.
Starting point is 00:49:20 It was Novo? Wow. They have. They're all over the place. It is interesting to watch. Yeah. Nova Nordis, how much do you think their stock is up over the past five years?
Starting point is 00:49:32 Ooh, 500%. Try 113%. 113, but it was a big company, yeah. Yeah. But it's been on a tear. Big company, but still, and how much do you think, what do you think the chart looks like over the last year? Oh, it's down. During the GLP one boom. It's down because it ripped up so high
Starting point is 00:49:54 And they and they rotated out there CEO. That's right. We covered that Tim's and hers is at nine billion nine point six six billion That is down from a high of maybe 15 billion. And it's one of those interesting like SPAC targets that I think they got out through a SPAC and they never really went down that far. They were down, you know, yeah, like, you know, 30%. I mean, they SPAC to $10 a share,
Starting point is 00:50:19 went down to $4 a share, kind of grinded back up. Now they're at $40 a share. So if you bought the SPAC and you did hold for five years, you're sitting on a three X, four X, not bad. So kind of a narrative violation around the SPAC, like all SPACs are bad narrative. Yeah, I mean, and and the CEO Andrew Dudum, we should have him on the show, said that,
Starting point is 00:50:51 you know I think his position, you know, we have no idea what the details of their contract actually look like, but fairly reasonable position to say we're not going to just sell one product, just you know, because it's true. Not every patient is gonna respond well to Wigovie and they should have options. So before striking deals with brand name drug makers,
Starting point is 00:51:15 telehealth firms were selling lower cost knockoff versions of these drugs made by Compounding Pharmacies taking market share away from brand name makers. The Compounding Pharmacies had been allowed to mass produce knockoff versions conditionally because the original drugs were in short supply. Now the whole compounding pharmacy dynamic is very different because I feel like the laws were created such that if a big pharmaceutical company couldn't supply you the drug, like your local pharmacist could compound it,
Starting point is 00:51:46 but then the startups kind of like rolled up all the compounding pharmacies and were doing it at like a much bigger scale, and it wasn't exactly what was intended originally, but I'm not sure about that. Yeah, so the big question is when should they have stopped? Well, the big question, will there be more regulatory action around compounded GLP-1s, and what will that do to their business?
Starting point is 00:52:08 So roller coaster of a year for him, partnership was announced in April 2025, popped, terminated just a few months later with a 35% drop. Well, if you're on GLP-1s, and you're losing weight, and your wrists are getting thinner, you need a watch that can adapt to your new wrist size.
Starting point is 00:52:29 You need to go on getbezel.com. Your bezel concierge is available to source you. Any watch on the planet, seriously, any watch. And you can find a watch with metal links that you could take out a link if you've lost a lot of weight. Or you could add one back if you're in a bulking cycle. Yeah. So something like a Nautilus. Keep those links handy if you're in a bulking cycle. Yeah. So something like a Nautilus.
Starting point is 00:52:45 Keep those things handy when you're ready to start the bowl. Exactly. This is key. This is very, very key. Anyway, a comment from the CEO, Andrew Dudum. He said, hims and hers will continue to offer access to a range of treatments, including Wagoovie,
Starting point is 00:53:01 so they continue to battle it out. It'll be interesting to follow this, and we will of course be talking to CREMU about this later today. There is a investing visual post here that I pulled up about how HIMSS makes money. They're making $576 million online, $10 million from wholesale.
Starting point is 00:53:21 That brings their total revenue to $586 million, which is up 111% year over year. Gross profit there, $428 million. Operating expenses are $337 million, leaving them $92 million in operating income, and $50 million in net income. So $50 million in net income for a $10 billion stock, pretty high price to earnings ratio,
Starting point is 00:53:49 if that's an indication of their earnings, but it's been a big growth stock on a major, major trend, GLP one, and so the retail army has been coming out in force. King, KSM's capital said, it felt too good to be true for Hymns to go this long without some FUD. This is more like it.
Starting point is 00:54:10 Just bought 2300 shares and Top Secret stocks. What does the retail army call themselves? I don't know. HymnBos or something. Say I'm really him. Yeah. Hymns look at the data. You can see their operating margin has improved a ton since they've gone public. They started out at negative 40% operating margin and climbed up every single quarter.
Starting point is 00:54:37 They're now at a 6.5% operating margin. The number of subscribers in the millions has gone from, they were at.6, so 600,000 subscribers. Now they're at 2.4 million, and their total revenue has gone from $272 million in revenue. This is the last 12 months. Now they're almost at two billion. And so they've almost 10x revenue from that SPAC price,
Starting point is 00:55:04 and that's what's driving the stock overall to be up three to four X off the original SPAC price so yeah very good news if you're Andrew Dudum and you need a break from grinding it out at him's book a wander find your happy place book a wander with inspiring summer and your hotel great amenities dreamy beds top-tier cleaning 24-7 concierge service it's a vacation imagine you're in one of the gnarliest PR crises of your life and two guys in suits on a podcast never matter just like yeah take a vacation but he gets a bad idea so long hims is up 2% today John so it's time to you know yourself yeah take your foot off the gas
Starting point is 00:55:43 head to wander calm and Speaking of foots on gas Ford which makes cars that you can put your foot on the gas of is Now under pressure to put their foot on the gas of acquiring Rare earth elements they are having difficulties obtaining vital magnets made with rare earth elements. Despite the deal, the United States struck with China. And I just want to highlight, I think the silhouette of this car is fantastic. The Mach-E GT, you're a fan.
Starting point is 00:56:15 I've only owned one Ford, Ford Raptor. It was a very fun car, not very practical. You need to park in cities and things like that. But I took a drive, yeah, practical. You need to park in cities and things like that. But yeah, if you want practicality, Ford GT. I took a drive, yeah, practicality, all about the Ford GT. But I took a drive, my buddy Matt has a Ford Mustang, what is it called? The Mustang Mach-E Rally.
Starting point is 00:56:41 It's like this rally version of the Mach-E. Okay, so it's still the crossover Still like an SUV more or less sort of it's like a hatchback. Yeah It's not a car like I would not call this a car. It it is a very very cool car fun It to him and he said it's like the most fun car he's ever owned Let's go and he's had pretty something from from pretty much every manufacturer at this point So he should hold on to it because they might be struggling to make them in the future Yeah Ford motor still facing difficulties obtaining vital magnets made with rare earth elements despite a deal The US struck with China to ease export controls a company executive said Monday
Starting point is 00:57:22 It's hand-to-mouth the normal supply chain scrambling that you have to do, said Lisa Drake, a vice president overseeing Ford's industrial planning for batteries and electric vehicles. Ford in May stopped production at a vehicle factory in the Chicago area because of a magnet shortage. The situation has improved, but the company still needs to move things around to avoid manufacturing shutdowns
Starting point is 00:57:42 given the scarcity of the materials. Drake told reporters during a briefing at an EV battery plant the company is building in Michigan, China in April began requiring companies to apply for permission to export magnets with rare earth metals, including dysprosium and terbium. The country controls roughly 90% of the world's supply of these elements, which help magnets to operate
Starting point is 00:58:06 at high temperatures. Much of the world's modern technology, from smartphones to jet fighters, rely on these magnets. So everyone sees that 90% of the world's supply and thinks it's 90% of what's in the ground, and that's not the case. What is really going on here is that the industrial capacity to remove the rare earth elements
Starting point is 00:58:27 from the ground is 90% in China. So they have 90% of the mining companies, 90% of the mining equipment. They don't necessarily have 90% of the actual rare earth metals in the ground, and the rare earth metals are not that rare. But we hear this every once in a while where we say, oh, there was a ton of rare earth deposits found in Ukraine or found in America somewhere
Starting point is 00:58:49 and that's not enough like hey just having them in the ground you still have to go and dig the mine get the approvals make sure and the one of the big reasons this was offshored was because of environmental considerations, which I find so frustrating because it's one world. Like it's an earth. Like if you want to protect the earth, moving something from one continent to another does not save the earth. Like, I mean, I guess there's a little bit of like,
Starting point is 00:59:19 yes, there's runoff in one river and so there's local pollution that you're avoiding, but in general. You've been to China, John, it is dark. Yeah. The sky is legitimately dark. But I think that a lot of the pollution that's going on over there is affecting us too.
Starting point is 00:59:34 For sure. And so especially if you think about the broader global warming picture, the broader poisoning of the air, that stuff's not gonna come over here at some point. I find that hard to believe. It would've been much better to just focus on ramping up production in America and then actually doing
Starting point is 00:59:50 the technological innovation to develop cleaner processes and not just offshoring it because it's like dirty and then just doing the dirty stuff over there. I don't know, maybe there's an argument for it, but it feels like the whole offshoring project was wrapped in this veneer of like, hear no evil, see no evil, speak no evil, that type of vibe. If we can't see the pollution here, it's fine. It's not happening. And it's like, it is still happening. It's just, you don't have control over it.
Starting point is 01:00:22 And now they've leveraged everything. Yeah, now we have massive supply chain Exactly, and and I don't think I don't think it actually had an impact on the like the stated goal of the environmentalists that pushed rare earth manufacturing overseas Did not was not achieved and so that that feels like like a failure and then on top of that We lost control of this important supply chain. So Ford isn't the only car maker struggling to obtain these magnets. Several other car makers say that the pace
Starting point is 01:00:51 of export license approvals for rare earth magnets hasn't changed significantly. It isn't quite day to day, but it's week to week, said an executive at one of the car makers. Car companies have warned that they could be forced to halt factory work if they're unable to attain enough rare earth magnets in the auto industry. Rare earths are essential to electric vehicles
Starting point is 01:01:09 because they allow a low cost way to ensure motors operate at high speed. Okay, so this should not affect the production of Raptor Rs. Thank goodness. I was extremely worried. So we might have to get most of those Mach-E owners into Raptor Rs.
Starting point is 01:01:28 But that's something we have to, if we have to do it, we have to do it. We have to do it. In the auto industry, rare earths are essential to electric vehicles. President Trump struck a deal earlier this month for China to resume granting licenses to export rare earth magnets. The agreement, which has a six month limit,
Starting point is 01:01:46 is aimed at allowing China to retain its chokehold on the critical minerals that give it leverage in future trade negotiations. So, very, very rough. Anyway, how'd you sleep last night? Let's pull it up. Praying. I got an 88, John.
Starting point is 01:02:04 Oh no, 82. There we go. You beat me. Oh, I did. Jordy's back on top. I'm back. I'm back. After a while.
Starting point is 01:02:13 I'm back. What happened to me? I guess I stayed up too late or something. I was in my sweet spot. Oh, I guess I didn't fall asleep until 11, 12. Rough. There you go, there you go. Gotta go to bed earlier.
Starting point is 01:02:22 I'm back on the horse. Yeah. I'm back on the horse. It should be a competitive week. I'm excited to see how it go to bed earlier. Back on the horse. Yeah. Back on the horse. Should be a competitive week. I'm excited to see how it. We got to start putting something on the line. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:02:31 Like the loser on Friday gets no caffeine and nicotine the whole stream. And they'll be sleep deprived too. That's double duty. That's extra hard. I don't know if that's possible. That would be torture. Anyway, our first guest is coming in the studio
Starting point is 01:02:47 in 10 minutes. Let's take you through a beautiful obituary to the founder of FedEx, Fred Smith. So Ryan Peterson posted a photo of the original FedEx plane. He said, RIP to logistics legend and outspoken defender of free trade, FedEx founder, Fred Smith, who passed away today.
Starting point is 01:03:07 Below is the first ever FedEx plane, which you can see at the Air and Space Museum annex next to Dulles Airport in Virginia. Look at that. He must have been so stoked when he bought this. Like his business was finally growing that he could own his own plane. Imagine how many likes he would have gotten
Starting point is 01:03:23 on social media pick yeah Everyone's like this is your flex. I do appreciate you're just trying to go viral. This is clearly This is clearly for just is clearly for logistics total legend Burning VC dollars on a plane Bear he was using Vegas doing cash flow, yeah. Anyway, Max Meyer has a story that we should read through.
Starting point is 01:03:49 Fred Smith and American Life. He says, Fred Smith died on Saturday. He was the founder of Federal Express, which became FedEx, one of the largest logistics companies on Earth. Smith was an entrepreneur in the truest sense of the word and an American patriot. He bent reality and created something entirely new
Starting point is 01:04:07 and he ran toward an extremely difficult problem. The fruits of Fred's work are as follows, if you give a box or document to FedEx by 6 p.m., you can have it delivered almost anywhere in the United States or Canada by 8 a.m. the next morning. Imagine how key that would have been to business before the internet. Incredible, incredible, yeah. You're trying to do deals? morning. So imagine how key that would have been to business before incredible. Incredible.
Starting point is 01:04:26 Yeah. You're trying to do deals. If you give us a key customer, if you give FedEx a package on a Monday, it can be in Paris by Wednesday morning or in Shanghai by Thursday for a few hundred dollars. Most of us take overnight delivery for granted, but take a step back. And the fact that we can essentially airdrop physical packages anywhere in the world is mind boggling. Smith's death is a reminder not to take the miracles
Starting point is 01:04:49 of modern life for granted. They were built by people like Fred Smith. These are a few words about the man himself and the dazzling system that is FedEx. Frederick Wallace Smith was born in 1944 in Mississippi. Fred's grandfather, James Buchanan Smith, captained Mississippi River Steamboats. Fred's grandfather, James Buchanan Smith, captained Mississippi River Steamboats. Fred's father, James Frederick Smith,
Starting point is 01:05:08 was the founder of the Smith Motor Coach Company, which would go on to become Dixie Greyhound Lines after an acquisition in 1931. From steamboats to buses to jumbo jets, in three generations, the family stayed on the cutting edge of motorized transportation. In 1925, the elder Smith, seeking to create the transportation. In 1925, the elder Smith, seeking to create
Starting point is 01:05:25 the transportation line out of Memphis, converted a truck into a small bus and drove it himself. Within a few years, James Smith had dozens and dozens of coaches. By the time he died, suddenly in 1948, he commanded over 200. Wow, so he died four years after the son was born. Wow, so he basically grew up without a without a or maybe that's the grandfather
Starting point is 01:05:48 According to James Smith's obituary No, no, no, no, it's the dad. Yeah. Yeah. So according to James Smith's obituary Those 200 coaches each came to a halt during the regular regularly scheduled routes for one minute when the funeral began The young Fred was just four when his father died, wow. In 1962, the young Smith enrolled at Yale University where he was fraternity brothers with future president George W. Bush. Bush asked Smith to serve as the Secretary of Defense twice
Starting point is 01:06:15 and Smith declined twice, wow. Interesting because Defense is, who was the founder that we had on the show? I'm completely blanking on his name, the name of the company, and who invested in the company. But he had this defense-focused supply chain management startup. Yes.
Starting point is 01:06:34 It was one of our probably first. You're talking about Rune Logistics. Rune. But something he said about. Not the AI poster. The legendary poster. Not the legendary poster. The logistics company. The obsc poster. Not the legendary poster.
Starting point is 01:06:45 The logistics company. The Yacht scene of OpenAI. Yes. So, the young Smith was a member of the infamous cloak and dagger secret society. He is not beating the deep state allegations. It was at Yale that he wrote his first paper about his concept for using airplanes
Starting point is 01:07:03 to deliver packages with a hub and spoke system. Wow, he was like, I got an idea, I got a business plan, I just need somebody to build it for me. I.e. that instead of point to point package transport, everything would be brought to a single hub by air and then redistributed. We talked to somebody about this on the show, how now we think of it as inefficient
Starting point is 01:07:21 to bring everything to one place and then do the hub and smoke thing because now we have You know door dash and Waymo and you know Last mile all these all these different last mile solutions, but at the time this was revolutionary Everything would be brought to a single hub Repeat that cycle every night while turning a profit and you have a viable system for overnight delivery The paper is said to have earned an average grade. In 1966, the founder of FedEx graduated from Yale
Starting point is 01:07:51 and volunteered to receive a commission in the Marine Corps. He served two tours in Vietnam. For his service in Vietnam, the President Nixon decorated Smith with a silver star and a bronze star. The silver star citation read in part unhesitatingly rushing through the intense hostile fire to position the heaviest to the position of heaviest contact. Lieutenant Smith fearlessly
Starting point is 01:08:14 removed several casualties from the hazardous area and shouting words of encouragement to his men directed their fire upon the advancing enemy soldiers successfully repulsing the hostile attack, moving boldly across the fire swept terrain to an elevated area. He calmly disregarded repeated North Vietnamese attempts to direct upon him as he skillfully adjusted artillery fire and airstrikes upon the hostile positions
Starting point is 01:08:40 to within 50 meters of his own location. Wow. And continued to direct the movement of his unit. Wow, what a badass. So at this point, 1973, he's 29 years old. He lost his dad at four. He goes to Yale with George Bush, then goes to Vietnam, does two tours, gets a silver and a bronze star.
Starting point is 01:08:59 It's crazy. War hero. And now he's decided to launch Federal Express in Memphis. Smith had studied military procurement and been working on the idea for nearly 10 years after writing the Yale paper. So he writes this paper. And he's like, OK, 10 years later.
Starting point is 01:09:16 Most founders have an idea and they pivot in two months. He writes this paper. He's worked on it for a decade. Gets an average grade. This is like Nike. 10 years later. This is the same thing with Nike. 10 years later, the company launched with a fleet of 14 French to salt jets
Starting point is 01:09:28 Which delivered a few hundred packages on their first day of service there we go wow just like just zero to one According to FedEx Laura Smith named his new service Federal Express because he hoped to attract the attention of the Federal Reserve because he hoped to attract the attention of the Federal Reserve Bank, a prospective customer. It is funny, like the name you would think, Federal Express, you would just assume that it's an extension of the government. I did when I was a kid. I was like, oh, United Postal Service, USPS,
Starting point is 01:09:55 United States Postal Service. These are all the same. Using FedEx, it was just a better product experience than USPS. So even as a kid, you kind of. Feel it out. Feel it out. The system that Smith had conceived at Yale worked.
Starting point is 01:10:07 It really worked and nothing like it existed. The USPS existed principally to deliver letter mail and didn't have aircraft. UPS was a giant of a ground delivery throughout the US. Federal Express, though, would specialize in rapid air delivery. Just five years after the first Federal Express flights, the company was listed on the New York Stock Exchange
Starting point is 01:10:28 Today the FedEx fleet consists of nearly 700 aircraft in about 200,000 vehicles and FedEx employs Workers around the world Wow every night at the FedEx super hub at the Memphis International Airport hundreds of jets landed the ultra hub at the Memphis International Airport. Hundreds of jets landed the airport. The Ultra Hub. The Super Hub, bringing packages to its many sorting machines. A few hours later, the jets take back off
Starting point is 01:10:52 to every corner of the United States and the world at their destinations. The other half of the fleet awaits feeder aircraft to take packages to smaller airports and the FedEx Express trucks that take packages to their final destination and the FedEx express trucks that take packages to their final destination. The financial finesse needed to actually make a model
Starting point is 01:11:10 like this, not just lose massive amounts of money. Yeah, you could go out of business so many times. And yeah, there is that story about him almost losing money, going to Vegas and then putting the treasury on black and winning it back and doubling it and making payroll the next day, saving the company, maybe apocryphal. There's been rumors that maybe it was like
Starting point is 01:11:34 some mob-related thing and he took a loan. The tin foil hat explanation is like, you know, he either did it. He did some type of, and this is entirely internet speculation. It's probably not true, but it's possible that he like, you know, was, you know, needed a reason to have a bunch of cash, right? And maybe did something else,
Starting point is 01:11:57 but the story is incredible and it will live on. Yeah. Smith retired from FedEx in 2022 after almost 50 years leading the company, he has survived by nine of his 10 children and his wife, Diane, his daughter, Winland. Smith-Rice died in 2005 of a terminal cardiac condition, as Rich said.
Starting point is 01:12:16 And one has to think that his father, Mr. Smith, who died with 200 vehicles to his name, would be impressed that his son died with 200,000 vehicles to his name and a fleet of jets to match. So incredible story and may he rest in peace. Anyway, let's move on to the timeline. Also one of the greatest logos of all time, the FedEx logo has that secret arrow in it.
Starting point is 01:12:41 Love that. Oh yeah. Yeah, once you see it you can't uneat not this logo the the next logo the more modern FedEx logo has the secret arrow in there once you see that they're moving you can't move it and there if you want to understand more about Frederick Smith go to founders podcast and listen to episode 1 5 1 151 And subscribe to ArenaMag to read more of Max's writing. Check it out, arenamag.com.
Starting point is 01:13:10 What else is in here? We have a post here from Gaurav Vohra. He says, chat, remind me to check this again in a year. I wonder if he's saying he's throwing it in chat. Yeah. Saying, check this again in a year. This is a graph. It'll be kind of hard to read,
Starting point is 01:13:25 but it's showing chat bots versus search engines, who's winning the traffic war, showing that- Google is getting 1.6 trillion total visits to chat GPTs, half of, 50 billion basically. So Google is much, much bigger. And Google is down 1.4% year over year and chat GPT is up 67 percent Yeah, I mean it's a 34 X gap today. Yeah, I Have lots drew
Starting point is 01:13:55 55 isn't that wild Yeah, so I wonder AI accounts for out of 55 billion visits open AI accounts for 47.7 billion yeah So users 81% of all chatbots is open AI. I feel like it's even higher now, but it's crazy so so AI chatbots are 2.96 of search engine traffic today Virov is calling it or wants to check back in a year. Yep. It's very possible We could see double digit search engine traffic into chat bots. Yeah, I do wonder if site visits
Starting point is 01:14:30 is even the correct metric here, because it's more like time on site and attention, because I'm pretty sure I Google things for just two seconds, Google something. I will use Google as a calculator, and I won't go to ChatGPT for that. If I just have to multiply two numbers together, I'll just throw that in.
Starting point is 01:14:46 Are you not a power user? No, it's faster. You don't. It's all about the speed. You don't believe in AI, do you? Yeah, exactly. I'm still checking out this whole AI thing, starting to learn about it.
Starting point is 01:14:57 But yeah, I think the more relevant metric is actually total user minutes, like how much mind share is going on, because I'm probably in ChatG on, because when I'm in, I'm probably in ChatGPD longer than I'm in Google, but I might be hitting more page views on Google than ChatGPD queries, because I might throw a deep research query
Starting point is 01:15:15 and then spend 10 minutes reading it. I'm very rarely throwing a Google search out and then reading the blue links for 10 minutes. That's just not how it works. So anyway. Also interesting to think about how they're counting visits, right? You're having this conversation with ChatGBT,
Starting point is 01:15:30 where oftentimes you're repeatedly running news, new hits, right? Yeah. Against Google. Anyway, we have our first guest in the studio, Cremu. Welcome to the stream. There he is. Looking handsome as ever
Starting point is 01:15:48 Hey guys, how you doing? Doing well can you hear me? Yeah, you're fine I'm I'm looking forward to to you know a future date when we can potentially see your face But for now your avatar looks great soon. Okay. I'm looking forward to it We wanted to have you on to chat about a couple things, what's going on in GLP-1 world, reaction to the HIMS and HERS breakup. Jordy, where would you like to start?
Starting point is 01:16:16 High level update on the GLP-1 market. Yeah, I guess, I mean, it's this miracle drug that keeps on, we keep on learning about new diseases or problems that it can treat. It seems like it can't just stop. We got the diabetes, then weight loss, then maybe gambling addiction and other stuff. Walk us through how people are using or how doctors are prescribing GLP-1s for various conditions and what's most promising, what's on the horizon
Starting point is 01:16:45 and what you're tracking next. Yeah, so I'm actually really glad you asked this right now because right now the ADA, the American Diabetes Association Conference is ongoing and it seems like every other presentation is about GLP-1s. They are just talking about all the latest advances. Just yesterday, Amgen showed off a once monthly instead of once weekly injectable. Eli Lilly showed off an amazing combo therapy with an inhibitor called Bimagruma. It's a very weird name that makes people not lose any muscle when they're on the drugs. They've
Starting point is 01:17:19 been showing off just incredible advances all week. They've been showing off new treatments for different conditions and whatnot. There are increasingly many indications that these drugs are getting approved for. In December, Terzepotide was approved for sleep apnea. There's osteoarthritis indications incoming. There might even be, there's some effort being put into people trying to do something for cancers as well
Starting point is 01:17:45 because it does seem to help with obesity related cancers and it seems to help, I don't know why, with hematological cancers, the blood cancers. I don't understand really the mechanism behind that. But it seems like it's just hitting every single indication now. Well, why do you think that is? I have some guesses. I think the big reason has to do less with the direct effects of GLP-1s and more with the fact that obesity sucks.
Starting point is 01:18:12 Obesity is just really, really bad. It affects so many different systems. It makes your health worse on so many different levels. And the things that lead to obesity are also quite bad, like the bad diet, the bad habits, the not moving around very much. It's actually interesting. A lot of people, after they've been on these drugs for a little while, they decide to move
Starting point is 01:18:32 around more. They become more likely to go to the gym. They report their physical functioning has improved. It turns out that getting fat has made them get to the point where they are no longer looking to be active. And so they just kind of fall into a hole. Practically everything is improved I think for that reason and there are some improvements that are due to direct effects of the drugs. This has like for example this one is major adverse cardiac events, major adverse
Starting point is 01:18:59 cardiovascular events. Those seem to be reduced in number immediately after starting the stuff, which suggests that there's a mechanism that's pretty direct. And this mechanism is also independent of weight loss. So that seems to be how that works. Same with chronic kidney disease. Are you looking, you know, I feel like the sort of biohacker, alternative health world has for a long time, you know,
Starting point is 01:19:23 talked about cancer being, you know, this metabolic disease. Do you think that could be a factor and why it should could show some promise in treating various types of cancers? Yeah, I think it does makes a lot of sense in that direction for the obesity related ones, but I don't think it makes sense. So years ago there were people who suggested I think quite wrongly replacing certain cancer therapies with fasting because it seems to like Augment the effects of cisplatin based therapies and stuff and that didn't really hold up very well It was a bunch of theory work that didn't go anywhere and I don't think that this would help through Those purported mechanisms which again, I don't really believe in.
Starting point is 01:20:05 I really think it's mostly just cutting down on, for example, the number of cells you have, well, not really the number of cells you have, but like the activity of being fat. It's just, you're not as big of a person. You have less opportunity for cancer to really hit you when you are- Smaller.
Starting point is 01:20:22 Yeah, smaller. It's like how short people tend to live longer than everything else. Bad for you. Bad for you. Bearish for me. Um, well, how, how much of the recent, uh, like advances in GLP one indications or, or recent like benefits have been, uh, just looking at all the people that are taking GLP-1s for weight loss or diabetes
Starting point is 01:20:48 and then seeing a secondary effect in the population that's actually running the drug versus a new double-blinded trial for a different indication. Are both things happening or are these drugs diffuse enough that you can just look at the overall population and get an idea of what's happening? Yeah. So for FDA approved indications like obstructive sleep apnea, you do have to run additional
Starting point is 01:21:13 trials, but they are seeing that these things are possible from their trials or seeing these things are possible from the literature and they're running based on that. So in some cases, they do see these secondary endpoints. In fact, obesity is an example of this. Back in the day when they first introduced these drugs, back around 2005 or so, the CEO of Novo Nordisk at the time actually said, and I quote, obesity is primarily a social and cultural problem. It should be solved by team, by means of a radical restructuring of society. There is no business for Novo Nordisk in that area referring to obesity. Wow. Yeah. So they, their scientists had to push for about a decade to go, Hey, you should
Starting point is 01:21:51 look at the weight loss data. It's really impressive. And then they finally, finally did it. And now we have weight loss drugs. Yeah, that is, that is wild. Um, what, uh, what concerns you? What's the catch? Seems, you know, somebody might say, is it too good to be true? We're running this sort of massive experiment on huge swaths of the population right now. Seems to be, you know, many, many positive indicators, but what are kind of red flags that you think people should be looking out for or the scientific community should be wary of
Starting point is 01:22:30 broadly from your point? Yeah, so I think that physicians need to be careful about prescription. And they already are. They don't tend to prescribe this to people who are very skinny. But the fact that this stuff is available through the gray market very easily without prescription for very, very cheap. Uh,
Starting point is 01:22:47 fortunately I've contributed to that, um, has led to in what way, in what way you mean? Oh, I made a, I made a guide to doing this and a few thousand people actually like paid me $8 a piece to see all the details on it. And now I have a few thousand people who, unprompted, I didn't tell them to do this, message me their weight loss progress and such. So through writing this guide a few months ago,
Starting point is 01:23:12 I've led to almost 12,000 pounds of weight loss. And that's just what's been reported to me. Not everybody's telling me all the results. And is that at a high level, people just finding pharmacies that will compound the drug for them? What does that actually look like? So what it looks like is buying from China.
Starting point is 01:23:31 So you are ordering from a Chinese factory, you are testing the purity of the stuff and finding, oh, it's 99.9%, I can use it, and then using all of that. It is not sold by Nova Nordisk, Eli Lilly, or any other major company working on these drugs. It's just from some Chinese company that is ripping them off. So is that patent infringement? We've been seeing that kind of go back and forth like hims and hers was able to compound
Starting point is 01:23:57 because there was a shortage. I would love to see Nova Nordisk go to the CCP and say, hey, can you please knock this off? Yeah, I mean, they could do import bans or seize the packages at the port. It's like, that's the design of this. You can't just buy a knockoff iPhone and have it delivered through the port of Los Angeles.
Starting point is 01:24:15 If a whole truckload comes through, they should stop that, but it's clearly not happening. So right now, the FDA allows this to happen because they have an exemption for research chemicals. You're technically not supposed to use these things, but everybody knows that everybody uses them. It's just how it is. They're researching weight loss on themselves.
Starting point is 01:24:33 Yeah, I'm researching. End of one, I'm researching. Research maxing. Yeah. I'm doing research. So you were saying the potential red flags or things to be wary of is around, what about the prescription activity concerns you?
Starting point is 01:24:48 Mostly abuse. Not really prescription activity as so much as the abuse. There are people who are obtaining these drugs. There are people who are getting other people to get the prescriptions. There are people who are not really visiting doctors using telehealth services to get prescriptions, and they are not in need of them.
Starting point is 01:25:02 But why would someone abuse this? This doesn't feel like something that has like the euphoria associated with a stimulant. So the concern I think would be somebody has body dysmorphia. Is that what's going on? Really skinny. Yeah, unfortunately I've met a few dozen women now
Starting point is 01:25:17 who have taken these drugs and been around 120, 130 pounds, normal height, and now they're around 100 and they don't look good anymore They look like they're aging very quickly. They look Unfortunate and it's it's sad to see that they're using these drugs when they didn't even need them in the first place Interesting the same negative effects of start actual starvation. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, you start getting really bad harmful effects You probably are eating at that point more lean mass than fat mass. It is quite bad. Yep, yep that makes sense. Yeah that's always the risk. How are you, what was your reaction to the Hymns-Novo Nordisk partnership blow up?
Starting point is 01:25:54 So I actually think this is a big failure on the Novo Nordisk part. It seems as though what they did was they partnered with Hymns in order to catch them. My understanding is that H HIMS has been selling a little too much, more than they've been supplied by the person producing the drugs, which is interesting. I guess we'll get more details relatively soon if the lawsuit commences all that. Theoretically, Wigovia gives them a million doses
Starting point is 01:26:18 and then HIMS is somehow selling 1.2 million doses of Wigovia, is that where you're at? Yeah, something like that. They're either compounding it themselves, ordering from something from China. They are doing something. And I don't know if that will hold up or show up in trial.
Starting point is 01:26:31 It's an accusation. So I guess it's alleged, but we'll see, we'll see. What about Himm's general position that patients should have as much choice as possible, as much access as possible, as much access, you know, access at different price points, things like that. They are completely correct to do that. I think that HIMS providing different dosages
Starting point is 01:26:53 than are provided by Novonortisk is a wonderful thing. There are people who can get legitimate uses out of sort of micro-dosing this stuff, because it gets rid of noise. I've met many, many people now, and this is an increasingly common thing it seems. I really don't know how far this is gonna go, but a lot of people who are microdosing this
Starting point is 01:27:12 because it helps with their ADHD. Their ADHD is like the pathological end of food-based distraction. They're not losing weight from this anymore, but they are just using it in order to not think about food at all. It gets rid of that nagging feeling in the back of their head and they can focus on work.
Starting point is 01:27:27 Yeah, I did a 24 hour dry fast from Friday night to Saturday night. And all day Saturday, I was shocked at how much time my, I was just thinking about food and water, wanting food and water. And I was very freeing to some degree, because I was like, well, I'm just not having any until around dinnertime.
Starting point is 01:27:49 But so many points throughout the day, my mind was just going to, oh, I should go get a little tasty drink from the fridge. I should, you know, I should. I'm not addicted. I'm not addicted to water. I'm not addicted to water. I'm not beating the water addiction allegations.
Starting point is 01:28:03 Big water guy. What else are you tracking right now broadly? Any reactions to the NIH funding? Oh yeah, 40%. We had Andrew Huberman on the show. He was breaking it down for us and what's going on with Jay Bhattacharya. What's your take on the cuts that have been proposed?
Starting point is 01:28:20 So I don't know how much I should reveal about that. There's a lot of really good things coming. There might be some interesting developments there very soon. I'm especially hopeful about well, you know, actually, I shouldn't say that just there will be good news there soon. There will be some changes. I guess. Yeah, yeah, I guess zooming out like what what does good look like to you? Are you generally in favor of? taxpayer funded in every American or $10,000 biohacking budget Hacking vouchers. Yeah, I mean some people would say like, you know the the the big pharma companies are profitable They should bear this expense not the yeah, so they're not profitable enough
Starting point is 01:29:07 They have troubles with R&D. Yeah, I that public money is very very useful We need more public funding than we currently have. Yeah, we actually look at biotech returns You know just looking at the asset class The logical thing to do would just be to invest elsewhere. And that was with historical levels of public funding that kind of contributed to those returns to some degree. Yeah, we have a dearth of funding at the moment and we need to increase it. We need to improve the allocation
Starting point is 01:29:38 and also increase the amount. There's really no way around it. If we wanna keep making progress, you just have to throw more money at these things. And I think we will start doing that very shortly. These cuts are a little alarming to start, but they are not the end of the discussion. Remember, we are, it's still only five months
Starting point is 01:29:53 into this presidency, and they have a lot of really big plans. They have a lot of trouble getting appointees through the Senate. They have a hiring freeze ongoing right now that is interminable. We don't know when it's going to end, but once that is over,
Starting point is 01:30:06 they'll be issuing NPRMs left and right. It's going to be a deregulatory massacre. It's going to be wonderful. Wow, well that's what else is exciting to you in biotech right now. Well, I wanted to say on the HEMS point with the different pricing and whatnot, I think perhaps the most excitingch right now in. Well, I wanted to say on the Hems point with the different pricing and whatnot, I think perhaps the most exciting thing right now in that area is that Novo Nordisk is run by
Starting point is 01:30:33 idiots like they're very smart people, but they're just total idiots. Hey, everybody misses the patent. You know, what do they do? They forgot to. I think it was Eli Lilly, but they know this is Nova Nordis. Oh, there was no vote that lost the the patent fee. Yeah, they forgot to do it. 450 bucks or something. Yes, it was 250. And then they missed it. And they were told you're one year out, you had to pay a late fee, like
Starting point is 01:30:57 an extra $200 late fee on it. And they just did a still failed. It is amazing. So that enables a wonderful, wonderful program that the FDA should pursue immediately. The FDA and the CMS have to collaborate on this. But it's the Section 804 importation program. And it allows individual US states to import as much of the generic drugs
Starting point is 01:31:21 or any other type of drug that's produced in Canada and has like an indication of proof here and whatnot As they want to reduce costs. So for example, Florida will whenever they get this actually going have much cheaper EpiPens they'll be able to lower the cost of drugs by importing cheap generics from Canada and because cheap generic Ozempic is going to be coming from Canada in 2026 every state can just Jump on the program and if we're getting people if we're giving Americans five dollar a week Ozempic then we're going to see perhaps an end to the chronic disease crisis. We're going to see
Starting point is 01:31:59 obesity tackled meaningfully we're gonna see people Getting hot again and make America hot again meaningfully we're gonna see people getting hot again and make America hot again. The real meaning of aha. The real meaning of aha. Oh the real meaning of aha. There we go. There we go. Inside baseball. Very exciting. Well 15 minutes was not enough time. Never enough. We should have you back on again soon. Thank you for all the insights. Yeah thanks for coming on. We'll have you back on soon. This is great. Absolutely. And if you dox yourself anywhere other than here, we will be very upset. So.
Starting point is 01:32:29 Might have to have this. Oh, no. Sorry, guys. You guys have a good one. All right, cheers. We'll talk to you soon. Bye. Next up, we have Clement from Hugging Face
Starting point is 01:32:39 coming into the studio. I believe he's here already. Very excited to talk to him. Fascinating business. We'll dig into artificial intelligence open source Everything's going on. What is the origin of the name hugging face? What is artificial? It's the it's the emoji. I believe yes What is what's going on? You're welcome? Hey, that's the emoji like that Yeah, yeah, yes, but there's come on. You guys are giving me shit about the name with a name like that TBP
Starting point is 01:33:05 Yeah I'm not giving you shit. I just I just Just immediately see the obviously the icon, but there's there's more to the name than that It's an emoji But it came because the product that you were building before this was really is that right you break that story down Yeah, when we started the company eight years ago, we were building some sort of Tamagotchi AI, AI girlfriend, a chat GPT before chat GPT.
Starting point is 01:33:31 There you go. So very much kind of like an entertainment product. And so we picked the hugging face emoji because that's the one that we were using the most. We also had internally this joke that we wanted to be the first company to go public with an emoji instead of the three letter ticker, you know, like on the NASDAQ. Yep. Still, still fingers crossed for that. I hope nobody's going to go public with an emoji before
Starting point is 01:33:54 us and that they'll wait for us. And then the community just loved it and started to put it everywhere, put it on their, on their clothes, on their, on social networks everywhere. So we decided to keep it. Yeah. The, the, the owning an emoji as a brand online, I think is still under underrated strategy. We see it every once in a while. I've seen people use the, the, the, the different fruit emojis for different things. And there was a whole strawberry story tied to open AI and stuff. Um,
Starting point is 01:34:24 but when you can condense down, I mean it's a coinage essentially, like when you can own an emoji and have it say something. That's very powerful from a branding perspective. You can even search for an emoji on Google and the App Store directly with the hugging face emoji. Yeah, I mean you're gonna compete with the people that use the emojis for any other reason
Starting point is 01:34:40 and there's always the risk that somebody steals the emoji. I bet their SEO is pretty solid. But I think, yeah, I think if you search the hugging face emoji, you're going to wind up in the right place. But walk me through the business today. How, what, give me an idea of the scale and kind of the core business model. Yeah. So we, one of the most used platform for AI builders, we just crossed actually today 10
Starting point is 01:35:02 million AI builders using us. So it's mostly AI scientists. Congratulations! 10 million! That's a ton! 10 million AI builders. So it's mostly AI scientists, AI engineers, software engineers, building models, training models, optimizing models, sharing models, data sets, apps. So there's a new repository, so it's model, data sets, apps, created a hugging face every 10 seconds now. And the way we monetize,
Starting point is 01:35:35 because you asked this question, is kind of like a pretty straightforward premium model where most of the usage and the users are free and then a small percentage are premium. And usually they become premium with premium features. So for example, enterprise features when like a big company like Google, like Nvidia are using us, obviously they need user management, security, stuff like that. Or when they need premium compute, right? So when they need more powerful GPUs or hardware to run some other stuff they're doing on the platform.
Starting point is 01:36:07 Yeah. 10 million AI developers. Have you paid each one a hundred million dollars? Which seems like the going right these days. It's a quadrillion dollars. It's a lot of money, but I mean, even if you're paying reasonable rates, you're still up in the, in the, in the trillions of dollars for the total market. I mean, I would be interested to get your reaction. How have you been processing the news that the talent market
Starting point is 01:36:31 for artificial intelligence researchers seems to be hotter than ever in history, and we're getting into NBA money for top researchers? Do you think this makes sense, given where we are in the cycle? What has been your take overall? Yeah, it's definitely harder than it's ever been because when the CEO of OpenAI is saying that an other company is paying more to get OpenAI employees, it's really like here is
Starting point is 01:36:59 the top because historically, obviously, they've been kind of like the highest paying mobile company ever in terms of packages. So when he's saying that they're getting beaten on packages is quite phenomenal. I hope it's not going to continue too long and there's going to be more kind of like almost democratization of skills of AI building. Otherwise, I think we'll end up in a quite, quite weird world. One of my biggest focus is kind of like how to fight concentration of power, concentration of skills, concentrations of resources in AI. And I hope we can progressively move into a world where everyone can build AI
Starting point is 01:37:44 and not just like a few hundreds AI scientists. That'd be really great for me. What is your interaction today with the various prompt to code tools? What are you most excited about? What is that space? Cause that feels like kind of the entry point. Somebody comes in and they are making software for the first time.
Starting point is 01:38:06 And that can be maybe a gateway into exploring the whole ecosystem of Hugging Face and everything there. It's super exciting, right? To empower more people to be to be builders. We actually released last week our MCP that is integrated into into Cloud, into into chat GPT, the, the announced actually a few days, few days ago, into codecs, into cursor.
Starting point is 01:38:33 So we integrated with, with all of these, we've got like a specific focus, which is not only to empower people to build like website or simple apps, kind of like the previous generation of apps, but trying to empower everyone to actually build AI models, right? Which becomes really exciting because it means that maybe everyone can start training,
Starting point is 01:38:55 optimizing their own model that then they use themselves on their interface to kind of like keep building even more. So that's when you start to have kind of like maybe display wheel in terms of AI progress. So that's kind of like keep building even more. So that's when you start to have kind of like maybe display wheel in terms of AI progress. So that's kind of like our focus with the integration of hugging based MCPs with a lot of these tools. On the open source question, kind of like the decentralization of power,
Starting point is 01:39:17 what was your interpretation of the anthropic news today that it was in fact fair used for them to train their models on it was several hundred thousand books or several million seven million books. I was kind of you know optimistic that that would happen but also just it seemed like we clearly needed some sort of legal ruling here to understand this stuff but but how did you process it were you happy with the result? Yeah I think this is good news.
Starting point is 01:39:46 Obviously, I think this ruling, they'll come and be different and specific depending on the use cases, because you have to look at not only what's been used, but also how it's used, if it's kind of like transformational, if it's replacing, competing with the initial datasets. What's been cool for open source is that I think by default open source is very used. So when someone releases kind of like a dataset on
Starting point is 01:40:10 Huggings face, in my opinion, it's usually very used because it's used for educational for progress. If you look at like when copyright was invented and designed, the main focus was not to prevent progress and learning, right? And education, you don't wanna put like copyright rules that are limiting progress. And so I think in open source, most of the time, when you release models or datasets in open source, it's fair use.
Starting point is 01:40:40 So hopefully that is gonna be kind of like a little bit more of the motivation for companies, especially in the US Who've used a little bit this arguments not to release their models and the assets to do it a little bit more Because I think we really need it now. I don't know if you've seen yesterday the the conference from Dilan from Semi analysis talking about kind of like the Energy limitations in the US compared to China. Something interesting there is that in addition to that, we're mutualizing way less in the US than in China because in the US most of the leading frontier labs are proprietary.
Starting point is 01:41:19 And so they all do the same training runs. Oh, interesting. If you think of it, right? If you think of Entropiq, OpenAI, XAI, they all do almost the exact same billion dollar training runs. Whereas in China, they're much more. So it's not only that they have more capacity, but also they use this capacity much better. Um, so I think it's, it's urgent that, uh, in the West we can't like find, find solutions for, for that, um, not to create additional risks or the API in the U S.
Starting point is 01:41:57 Yeah. Yeah. It's kind of oddly become more monopolistic over there or something like that. It's, it's kind of an odd an odd outcome, but that certainly makes a lot of sense. On the training data sets that go out, what are you seeing on the video frontier? It feels like we've been kind of batting back and forth this idea that Google might have a really, really powerful sustaining advantage there because of the YouTube data set. You know, you talk about 7,000 books. You can probably download that on a torrent somewhere
Starting point is 01:42:30 if you're creative enough. You might be able to scrape it onto a single hard drive. We've heard about folks putting training data on hard drives flying to Malaysia, doing a training run, flying back. You think about GitHub. All the code's basically been stolen at this point, like it's out there, some of it's open source, some of it's in, you know, it's obtainable.
Starting point is 01:42:51 It's much harder to get all of YouTube on a single hard drive and steal it, or even just have a scraper because, you know, what, it's like hundreds of hours are getting uploaded every minute or something like that. So what are you seeing on the video training side in open source, closed source? How do you think that sub market plays out
Starting point is 01:43:10 in artificial intelligence? An interesting data point there is that on Huggins phase, there's almost half a million open data sets with a thousand new data sets added every day. And the fastest growing category is video datasets. And the reason why is because not only it's more of the focus for training, but also because I think we're starting to see more and more synthetic datasets on video that are starting to really work.
Starting point is 01:43:38 Yeah. Because especially because the physics is starting to work on a lot of these video generation tools. It's not only used to create other video generation models, but it's also starting to be used, for example, in robotics. And that we also starting to see quite a strong growth to kind of like almost use the physics of the video as kind of like synthetic training to train robots. Right. I think it's Musk who said a few weeks ago, like, oh, in the future, we'll basically put a robot in front of a laptop watching YouTube videos. Maybe you could watch like shows like,
Starting point is 01:44:16 like yours and basically learn, learn from that. So it's exciting that maybe seeing this kind of like intersection of like video and robotics, that might lead to conflicts and interesting results in the future. They might be watching already, who knows? On the video, I want to stay on the video training side. What makes for a great open source video training data set? I'm interested to hear how you processed the news of Meta acquiring scale AI and the idea of the human
Starting point is 01:44:50 defining what good data looks like. I'm familiar with what that process looks like in the RLHF world, in the LLM world. You know, you're basically creating rubrics for grading answers to clear questions. Does this follow the right format? And then you might have the customer or the user give a thumbs up, thumbs down.
Starting point is 01:45:09 Did this answer my question? In the video context, are you having a human watch a video and then tag it with text or is there other metadata that's important? The physics thing seems harder to define. Basically my question is just what makes for a great video data set? I think it's still an open question.
Starting point is 01:45:32 I think nobody really knows because it's quite early. And in the early days of cycles like that, you usually don't care so much about the quality of the data but the quantity of the data, right? So I would say that what makes a great data set today is its size, right? It's for it to be big, but progressively, similarly to what we've seen in text,
Starting point is 01:45:54 as you're going to start to see more specific use cases, specialized models, when you're gonna start to hit some sort of a wall in the data, you start to focus more on the quality of the data set, and then we'll learn how to make them better. One thing that we're seeing on Hugging Face, which is quite maybe not controversial, but counterintuitive, is that actually, you know, it's not going to be just like one data set or one model, or not even kind of like a dozen data sets and a dozen models. It's going to be just like one data set or one model or not even kind of like a dozen data sets and dozen models. It's going to be kind of like millions of data sets and
Starting point is 01:46:30 millions of models. Just the same way you think about GitHub repositories and code repositories where there isn't really kind of like one GitHub repository to rule them all, right? Like every company, every use case has its own kind of like specialized, customized code repository. One thing that we believe is that ultimately there's going to be millions of different models, millions of different data sets, and every single use case is going to be optimized, customized for its own use case. Yeah, I feel like there's a little bit of tension there, between Like if scale matters on the data sense side, how are you possibly betting on? thousands of small open source data sets versus Instagram YouTube like it just feels like when I think about who's really gonna dominate in the future of
Starting point is 01:47:21 Generative video it's got to be the platforms that are ingesting every image and every video all the time forever. In my mind, it's kind of like a timing thing at the beginning, when we starting on a cycle like video, we almost have to brute force our way into intelligence. And so, you know, quantity matter. But progressively as, as you want to optimize more, for example, when you want to optimize for costs, right? You start thinking, okay, how can I train a smaller model that is going to be faster, that is going to cost less money? Because
Starting point is 01:47:55 for example, if I want to do a banking customer support chatbots, I probably don't need to tell me about the meaning of life, right? I just wanted to tell me about my bank accounts and so I can use kind of like a smaller, more customized model. I think you'll see both phases in video a little bit the same way that you've seen both phases in text where you started by the biggest models. And now OpenAI or Entropiq, when they release models, they don't really actually talk about the size of their models anymore. And I wouldn't be surprised if actually behind the hood, actually the size is going down. Because I think at some point you start to want to have like a optimized customized. And that's when you start to see more models, more diversity also of the data sets. Yeah, this is the information efficiency thing. Like a human doesn't need a trillion hours of training
Starting point is 01:48:49 to learn how to speak English. Kid can learn that in a couple of years. And so the algorithms eventually will get there. Jordy, do you have a question? George Hotz was on the show last week talking about how he's been seeing venture-backed founders want to just check the open source box and basically say like, Oh yeah, we're open source just kind of because that's the
Starting point is 01:49:11 cool thing to be. Are you seeing that too? Where do you think the line is? Are you a beneficiary of that? Yeah, yeah, we've seen that even though, you know, I think there's still a way to go, especially for like big US tech companies. I think if you look, I've been in AI for eight years now, and if you look at the cycle like 2016 to like 2021, 2022, like the big tech companies in the US, they were doing so much more open science, open source and in many ways that's how the US got the leadership, you know, because, you
Starting point is 01:49:51 know, Google releasing transformers and then the T of transformers becoming chat GPT and kind of like building on top of each other. That's how you accelerate the progress and kind of like building on top of each others. It has kind of like definitely slowed down if you look at the big tech companies in the US. But fortunately, I think startups are kind of like compensating and filling the voids in a way and and I hope that you know, big AI companies in the US also will change a little bit, evolve a little bit. Open AI, obviously, Sam Altman said that
Starting point is 01:50:30 they will release an open source model at some point. So excited about that. What are your expectations for that model? Do you have any predictions? My expectations are quite high just because of the history of open AI, right? When they tend to release something, they tend to release something quite good.
Starting point is 01:50:47 So I hope and I suspect that they could release something quite transformational in open source. Hopefully, I've always said that, if we had like the equivalent of a DeepSec, but in the US it could be 10 times bigger than, than deep seek. So hopefully, uh, you know, if we can have something 10 times better, bigger, more impactful than deep seek, uh, would be, uh, it would be fun. Is that not meta llama? What do you,
Starting point is 01:51:18 how do you describe what's going on at meta right now? Yeah. Well, I mean, um, it's, it's easy to dunk on Meta, right? But I think they're the most open big technology company in the US right now. They really changed the field with Lama. They really kind of like boost, gave a tremendous boost to the open source community. And they still share a lot of their things in open source. I think open source
Starting point is 01:51:46 is what brought them to the frontier, right? Like before they started to release in open source, they were quite far behind in terms of AI race. And now they're very much in the race, which is great. The fact that they haven't released something massive as a follow-up yet, to me, shows how hard it is to build at the frontier, right? It's not easy, even for a big technology company like Meta.
Starting point is 01:52:16 And so I think that speaks to that. I'm excited to see all their new efforts, all the resources they're investing in AI right now, and hope that they can keep sharing with the community and open science and open source. What was your reaction to Apple's announcements at WWDC around on device intelligence or inference? Was that exciting to you?
Starting point is 01:52:38 Do you think that's gonna be a catalyst for more developer activity or what are you seeing so far? I think it's quite early, but quite excited about on device. I suspect that maybe you'll have a higher percentage of compute on device for AI than you did for software, just because of some of the need for speed, for privacy, and the constraints in terms of costs. If you think of a chat GPT on device, what's amazing is that it's totally free. Compared to the really high cost that chat GPT has right now, not only for the customers, but also for OpenAI to run.
Starting point is 01:53:28 It's totally private in the sense that you can say anything and nobody's gonna see what you're seeing and potentially it could be quite fast. So I'm excited about on-device. It's early, especially in the technology side. I think there aren't a lot of on-device devices that really make it okay to run some of the great models, but it's progressing really fast
Starting point is 01:53:55 and can't wait to see what's happening in this domain in the next few months. That's a pretty huge switch because it's basically 0% on-device right now for AI inference. And if you're predicting that it's basically 0% on device right now for AI inference. And if you're predicting that it's going to go beyond 50%, that's a huge, that's a huge shift. I mean, I have a follow up. I'm pretty excited about robotics too. It's kind of like a little bit of a segue from
Starting point is 01:54:15 a, from a device, but we, we, we organized a weekend ago, what has turned out to be the biggest hackathon for open robotics that thousands of people participated in from over a hundred different locations and built kind of like open source robots. And we definitely kind of like seeing something happening there, kind of like the conjunction of like cheap hardware, open source, plus kind of like new capabilities for AI. It'd be kind of like the perfect combination for some sort of a charge-y-pitty moment for robotics. Do you think it's a straight shot to humanoids
Starting point is 01:54:59 or do you think that we'll see kind of a Cambrian explosion of Nat Friedman core bots that, you know, will pick up a single leaf at a time and are more use case specific? Are we going straight to generalizable? Because that was the chat GPT moment, I feel like there were great, you know, machine learning models for ad inference and recommendation algorithms. Like we had AI, but it was very narrow chat GPT was very broad. Which one do you think is coming first? And what are the relative timelines? The good question. I'm not sure to be honest, I think it's still undecided.
Starting point is 01:55:34 Yeah, I hope it's more future of more like a diverse robots, diverse camp like models. But I'm obviously kind of like biased on this. Because I think if you only have like one type of black box robots at your home, that's kind of like in like millions of houses, it's kind of like a scary, scary world. But scary world, but it's hard to tell. It's hard to tell the moment, I think. What are key breakthroughs that you're looking for this year? Any kind of predictions, new catalysts, that kind of thing? You have a crystal ball in the office?
Starting point is 01:56:18 I wish I had a crystal ball. I'm kind of like bored with text and chat bots right now. I think there are a lot of people working on it and we've kind of like reached this point where it's very Don't say plateau. Don't say plateau. No, not plateau, but incremental, very incremental improvements that are a little bit boring. So I'm much more excited. We can still invest billions of dollars in it, right? Yes. It's fine. We can definitely still deploy.
Starting point is 01:56:49 Yeah. So I'm more excited about harder domains, like you were talking about biotech just before. Yeah. Biology, chemistry, these domains are super exciting. Today, I don't know if you've seen the ARC institutes released a cell perturbation prediction model on Hugging Face and on GitHub, which I'm super excited about. I think it's obviously if you can predict kind of like the
Starting point is 01:57:21 perturbation and the evolution of the cells, especially when they react to drugs and things like that. It can have quite a big impact in terms of drug design and things like that. So really excited about these kinds of things, more kind of like biology, chemistry and how to apply AI there. What, how much economic value do agents create create internally at Hugging Face? Quite a lot. Quite a lot.
Starting point is 01:57:54 So we have this thing called Spaces, which is our kind of like AI app store, where it's like over half a million open AI apps that people are building. And it's integrated with our NCP framework. So you can add that in your chat, in your chat bot. And that's kind of like the most used thing internally at the new phase where people are going to use cursor or chat GPT and kind of like call some of these more specialized AI apps to do kind of like specialized tasks for them. It's hard to put a number of it on it, but yeah, it's quite transformational, of course.
Starting point is 01:58:38 Do you think we're gonna have this period where, like, do you find it kind of fascinating that you guys are getting a lot of value out of agents internally and that that like how do you what do you think agent agent adoption will look like in businesses because it feels like I don't know how rapid it feels right now it's rapid in the in the bubble that we're in people are trying a lot of stuff, but maybe they're churning quickly as well. So I'm curious what you think adoption will look like. Well, I mean, I think ultimately agent and AI
Starting point is 01:59:12 are kind of like a similar evolution of the same trends. And I think in terms of user interface, they're actually gonna emerge. And I'm not sure there's gonna be so many kind of like different different ways of interacting with AI and agent. But they're going to definitely go go mainstream just because of the very nature of a product like chat GPT that has already gone mainstream and where I'm sure
Starting point is 01:59:40 can't like open I will bring more and more agentic workflows into. So yeah, I think it's definitely going to go mainstream faster than anything we've seen before. Now the question will be, do you use a very complex agentic workflow 1% of the time for 1% of your queries or for 10% or for 50% or for 90%.
Starting point is 02:00:09 And I think we'll see that based on the development of the technology and the capabilities. I think if the agents are much better than kind of like a series of queries, then I'll use that. And if not, I'll stay on my past way of doing simple queries. Totally. Last question for me. Now that Meta owns something like 49% of Scale AI, the budget for data generation has to be significant at Meta. Is there a specific
Starting point is 02:00:42 data set that you'd like to see Metta harness scale AI to produce and then open source? I mean, I think biology, chemistry data sets are still very much lacking. Is there like a more specific example, example within biology or chemistry? What would you actually use an army of humans to go and categorize? Would you need biologists and PhD post-grad type work, or are we talking about something that someone could do
Starting point is 02:01:17 even with just a basic skillset? I think it's an open question. I don't really know, to be honest. I think if we knew what would be the of like the idea of data set there, we would, we would build it our ourselves. Cause we also built some, some data sets ourselves. That's sort of the story of Alpha Fold. Yeah.
Starting point is 02:01:34 I would say a fantastic data set for Alpha Fold and then they were able to do reinforcement learning against it. And that's what really solved the, that incredibly hard challenge. So if you don't have the data. Yeah, yeah. But my main point would be, you know, maybe to focus a little bit less on just texts and just chatbots and kind of like focus a little bit more
Starting point is 02:01:55 on other domains. I think that's when you can kind of like unleash a lot of the additional impact and a lot of the, I think, positive use cases for the technology too. Totally. Well, thank you so much for joining. This was fun. Appreciate all your insights. Thanks for having me.
Starting point is 02:02:13 And hopefully have you on again soon. Sounds good. Well, thank you, Stu. Thanks so much. Let's go back to the timeline while we wait for our next guest to join. Unusual Whales says, Deloitte's US employees can now buy $1,000 of LEGO on the company's dime
Starting point is 02:02:31 to boost their well-being. We're already doing that. We get free LEGO sets now. This is what employee wellness looks like. It's not just policies and a PDF somewhere. It's not a gym membership. It's LEGOs on the table. Yes, LEGOs on the table. You're in a meeting. You're stressed out. It's not gym membership. It's Legos on the table. Yes.
Starting point is 02:02:45 Legos on the table. You're in a meeting, you're stressed out. Yes. Start making Legos. Can Oh, it looks like Tyler over on the intern cam has a few Lego sets that have been sent to us. Here we go. Our Anderol Lego set build out was fantastically successful. Tyler did it in what? One hour and a half. Current record holder. I think it was 119. Who's counting though? Current record holder. Current record holder. World champion.
Starting point is 02:03:09 And walk us through what companies sent you stuff, what will you be building next? Yeah, so first we have the Eperus. This is Eperus. Eperus. Eperus, okay. Got a little counter drone system going there. That's awesome.
Starting point is 02:03:23 This one looks like a lot of fun. And then the other one is from Solugen. Solugen eugen. Very cool. It's a bio for molecule factory Yeah, right now everybody should have it will come back to you later because our guest is here but I want to know because it seemed like Anderl went straight to the Lego factory and had a design document and guidelines Those look like they don't even have instructions. So I want you to dig into those and see. I want new estimates for how long you think that'll take you.
Starting point is 02:03:50 Okay. Cool. Good luck. Anyway. He's like, not another LEGO set, please. I can't possibly do it. Please. I thought I would be software engineer. I thought that was a good viral date. Anyway, we have Emmet Shear in the studio.
Starting point is 02:04:02 Oh, you have LEGO sets. Anyway, we have image here in the studio. Oh, you have Lego set What do you think Lego sets are the new hot swag? I got this from a It's from fluid stack. They said like these like GPUs you can build out of Legos. Oh, that's awesome. They made themselves I think they're like knockoffs. I don't think it's actually like oh, okay. Yeah There's probably a couple different companies that you can like I think that's like that is the hot new swag is like Making making Lego kits of your stuff. Especially if you're a hardware company. Well, yeah. I mean, are we going to get a Softmax Lego set? What would you build? How do you build a Lego set of a neural net? I mean, that would be pretty cool. If you could get a Lego Technic. Yeah. I mean, I've seen people draw out the neural nets and the different weights
Starting point is 02:04:40 on a whiteboard. So it could be like a whiteboard of Legos with circular pieces and lines. I'm thinking like one of those Lego technique, like you know, I think it has all the like the gears and stuff. Yes. You turn the crank and that would be very cool. Yeah. So yeah, you could put in like a red ball and it could classify it or something. Yeah. Or blue triggers the blue node, the, the, the, the neuron fires. Yeah, when I have lots of extra time, I will go design a in-lego neural net as our piece of swag. And so I think it may take a little while. That would be raising the bar. Yeah, break it down to us.
Starting point is 02:05:15 What is the day in the life like for you now? It sounds like you're extremely focused on this one new company, right? Yeah, it is a mix of maybe like three or four things. I say, you know, a bunch of operational work where basically, you know, typically being a CEO, there's hiring and talking to people and all those things. This feels like it's not. You're good. You look good. You look great. It's better. And then there's research, and I'm actually reading papers and trying to keep up with what's happening in machine learning because it is changing all the time. And there's keeping up with what's happening inside the company.
Starting point is 02:05:58 Couldn't you just get those summarized pretty quickly with an LM? Just pull out the bullet key points. It turns out that process itself, is it takes time too. Like you see, you have to tell the LLM, you have to give it feedback. You have to like, I use deep research extensively for this, but it's still like, you have to actually onboard the information.
Starting point is 02:06:19 Having a summary. Yeah, you gotta have a quiz you too. You have to have a quiz you. I'm like a public enemy number one on this. I'll have deep research, spend 20 minutes researching topic. And then I'm like, actually, I don't have a quiz you too. I'm like a public enemy number one on this. I'll have deep research, spend 20 minutes researching topic. And then I'm like, actually, I don't have time to read that,
Starting point is 02:06:29 summarize it in three bullet points. Like I learned nothing about that topic. It's brutal. I spent a fair amount of time doing that. Cool. And then there's some amount of like actual, like working on trying to solve the problems like research or engineering or, you know,
Starting point is 02:06:48 I actually don't get the right code, it's too involved now, but helping the team or people figure, working on one of the actual core problems we're facing and then there's a lot of this, to be honest, a lot of trying to get the word out about what we're doing and talking about it. And I think that's sort of the four main things I'm doing. Yeah.
Starting point is 02:07:10 What's the near-term goal? What business model do you have in mind? What problems do you want to solve? Kind of like, what's the pitch? So Softmax is dedicated to discovering the principles of alignment and scaling it for everyone. discovering the principles of alignment and scaling it for everyone, I'm sure everybody, you know, for all of humanity. But we're really on the first part of that,
Starting point is 02:07:32 which is discovering the principles of sort of the science and engineering of alignment, because it's one thing to want to scale something, but until you actually can replicate it in a lab consistently, the idea that you're going to scale it is a little bit ridiculous, right? It's quite putting the cart before the horse, in my opinion. So what we're focused on right now is multi-agent reinforcement learning research, where we run simulations with lots of little agents and run experiments on them to figure out how they act.
Starting point is 02:08:06 And when we say agents, we don't mean like large language model agents. We mean like reinforcement learning agents, like the tiny little ones that you remember from the 80s. And that turns out to turn into a lot of reinforcement learning infrastructure because it turns out that there isn't a lot of great reinforcement learning infrastructure out there for especially for like big multi-agent simulations with lots of little agents. That's not a scenario that people have built out to the scale that we think is required. So actually, if you were to work today is focused on that.
Starting point is 02:08:46 Do you think another founder might say, I'm gonna just build picks and shovels here, I'm gonna just build that infrastructure and try to sell it to other people? I mean, if we build something that we think is really awesome, maybe we will sell it to other people. Maybe that's a question to answer with the business model. We're a research company, which means like right now,
Starting point is 02:09:04 it's like, if you're a drug research company, like a pharma company, your business model. We're a research company, which means right now, it's like, if you're a drug research company, like a pharma company, your business model is, well, we'll discover something awesome and then we'll figure out how to sell it. So we're still kind of in that groove. We'll discover something awesome. But I definitely, I'm commercial enough to believe that if I make something that's really useful for us, we'll probably sell it, give it away or something. What are the problems with the reinforcement learning infrastructure right now?
Starting point is 02:09:28 Because as I understood it, it was like when you do some massive training run, GPT 4.5, something like that, that's where you're trying to get the massive data center that's all in one place. You got to go to Memphis or you got to go to Texas, build something massive. But the reinforcement learning stuff, it feels like it can be a little bit more ambient, little bit more distributed. You're generating data here and there, maybe on a smaller rack.
Starting point is 02:09:51 Doesn't need to be as inference heavy on a single chip. I don't know, my understanding was maybe that the reinforcement paradigm was actually maybe a requirement of the wall that we've kind of hit on the pre-training scaling side that we've kind of hit on the pre training scaling side but also like kind of a gift I think he It gets exactly right I think it's I don't know I think it cut out no you're good Are you there my cell line? Hello? You're frozen. We can hear you frozen. Oh
Starting point is 02:10:21 No, this is this is the hardest part like bringing the future the zoom calls The the internet infrastructure is still lagging behind. We will have a GI my connection is unstable Brutal that we can hear every word perfectly Yeah, you could also just turn off your video and off my video job Let's just put it let's just have the production team to put an image up. They're gonna work on that, but let's just talk Okay, oh, no, we can't hear us. Oh, no This is brutal. Oh, well, let's take a second. I around the corner You're a motto the first thing to keep you we're gonna ask superintelligence to do great video calls
Starting point is 02:11:03 Stable video calls on any wife. All right. I'm on my I'm on my phone now. Okay, no here's the Can you hear us with the Wi-Fi? It's a thing. I think we're good to go. Okay. Yes, let's do it I think that was a great question by the like yes, you're right is a very different paradigm for training and That has been direction people have been going. And yeah, the challenge isn't the same. The challenge with doing the transformer training runs for large language models is all about
Starting point is 02:11:34 how do you scale up parallelism across... But it's all kind of offline, right? Like at the end of the day, like the output of the model doesn't determine what happens next in the training. And so it's like this, it's all about streaming the right data and the right sequences out to it,
Starting point is 02:11:56 but it's very much like a pipeline, right? Whereas with multi-agent RL, your environment is incredibly non-stationary. Every action you take determines your future observations in a way that is totally not like could be completely non-predictable. And learning off of a stale data is like almost worthless because it doesn't tell you anything about what your current behavior is. It just tells you what your current behavior was.
Starting point is 02:12:22 And so you're scaling up online learning in a big way. And that's a very different challenge. I think the other thing that's very different is when you're trying to do multi-agent reinforcement learning, if you have our goal, which is very much to drive social learning where the agents can learn to interact with each other, your biggest enemy is actually convergence. So most people in machine learning, they're trying to converge their model. That's the goal. And I was talking to some people from some time ago at this and I was like, we're trying to avoid converging our model. And they were like, I'm really good at that. They're like, yeah, no, I know that it's a joke because it's easy to have your model diverged in a bad way.
Starting point is 02:13:17 But it's actually really hard to set up a model that is converging but not converged and to keep it in that converging but not converged state as long as possible. But that's really to do social learning, that's what you have to do. If the things converge in their behavior too quickly, you're not exploring social space, you're just learning a task. And that's kind of a different challenge. And what it requires is actually a much more detailed, fine-grained control over the environment. What kinds of challenges, what kind of environment do you put them in, and how do you set that
Starting point is 02:13:55 up? And we spend a lot of time on those kinds of questions, I think. It's almost like the complete inverse of the way that all the other training works. On alignment, is there any chance that the solution to the alignment problem is something like very simple and elegant like Isaac Asimov's three laws of robotics or the genus of prompt you like you just instantiate the AI with be fruitful and multiply and we get the good ending. The transformer is a little bit of that
Starting point is 02:14:24 where it's a very simple algorithm. I, it, the answer will be, uh, something very simple and very hard. Um, cause if you ever had to raise a child who's like a, to an adult, I would not say parenting is complicated. Parenting is not a complicated thing. You know your child, you love your child, and you do what is in your child's best interest as best you can. That's basically the whole mandate. There's not anything, there's lots of techniques people can tell you, whatever, but those aren't the thing.
Starting point is 02:14:57 Those are things you try because you are doing this higher level algorithm where you're paying attention to your child, attuned to them, and caring about their future flourishing deeply. And that's not complicated, but it's not easy. And alignment's going to turn out to be exactly the same at some level where it's as simple as build an open-ended learning system that has the capacity to align, which like the transformer models or whatever, isn't going to be, that's not going to be some magic algorithm. It's just going to be an open-ended learning system that has this capacity, maybe some
Starting point is 02:15:35 inductive biases, and then raise it to actually be aligned with you. Okay, well, that's, that's, it's not the engineering that's the hard part. It's what happens after the model starts running. The trajectory it takes matters because every human's born, right? With this capacity for alignment, not every human, there's probably broken people who are like psychopathic and can't, but like, but almost everyone is born with the capacity for alignment, the capacity for care, the capacity to be a good family member, a good member of their community, to benefit those around them, to live a flourishing life. And yet this is not always realized. And so the capacity is one thing,
Starting point is 02:16:15 but the realization is something else. I think that's probably the, when you see the alignment the way that we do, that's probably one of the most important insights or conclusions is that the alignment isn't one thing, it's probably one of the most important insights or conclusions is that the alignment isn't one thing, it's two. It's this question of like, do you have the capacity to align with other beings and then do you? Yeah. It's thought provoking.
Starting point is 02:16:40 It's interesting. There's a bunch of different places I could go with that. Yeah, I mean, one person that, one founder who was talking to me about why he had a particularly low P-Doom was essentially saying that what we are building is a human simulator, and humans kind of are by and large good, and so we will by and large get the good outcome. When you think about parenting, you know, you think about, like, I was thinking about the story
Starting point is 02:17:11 of Oedipus Rex, and the idea that, I don't know if, I don't know the direction of the causality, but it feels like that story, that myth, has been repeated through humanity for so long, that story, and it kind of one-shotted humans into not doing that. And if you actually look for cases of Oedipal behavior, it's extremely rare. It's like less than one in a hundred million
Starting point is 02:17:39 that sons murdered their daughter. Oh, I thought you were telling a different story here. No, no, no, no, specifically, patricide. This is the Oedipus rex story. What that is is that's a warning about self. Oh, it's interesting. I thought you were telling a different story here. No, no, no, no. So specifically, patricide. This is the Anarchist's Wreck story. What that is, is that's a warning about self-fulfilling prophecies. Because his father is afraid. Yes.
Starting point is 02:17:55 Then he dies. So what does that say about how he died? We're doing that with the AI right now. Right now, we're raising the AI. Are we? And it's gonna come back and like, we believe the AI is a dangerous monster. I don't.
Starting point is 02:18:09 No, no, but I'm saying that collectively, a lot of us- I mean, you're built different, John. And we are collectively, it's humanity. Yes. We're going to abandon the AI in the wilderness, and it's going to come back and kill us. Yes, so let's not do that.
Starting point is 02:18:22 Let's say thank you after every catching deep rump. Using the parenting analogy, if we're going to continue on that, the thing with parenting that I think the white pill is that you can make a lot of mistakes as a parent and still get a great outcome. A wonderful person can emerge and process the mistakes their parents made and
Starting point is 02:18:47 You know rise above them And so and so hopefully that that can happen, you know, we're sort of raising artificial intelligence right now we can make a series of different mistakes and Ultimately still get you know a fantastic outcome. These are all good reasons to not be totally like doom, like, oh my God, we're all going to die. And I want to point something out about this particular child that is different. People who have kids who are really different from them struggle as parents because it's hard to raise, it's easier to raise a child who's more similar to you because you understand them more deeply. You know what they need. You know you interpret what they do better because you get them.
Starting point is 02:19:32 The more different your child is from you, the more difficult it is. And I'd say even a deeper level than that, the current models, it's not clear how much capacity for alignment they have as they're currently designed. Like, they look like they're... it looks like... it feels like you're talking to a person right now. And there's a way in which you are and a way in which you're not. When you talk to a baby, you're talking to a physics simulator. When you're a human baby, you hold a human baby, it draws breath, it screams. That is this incredibly complicated cascade of neuronal firings that is done, this beautifully
Starting point is 02:20:14 delicate like supercomputer would be required to do the simulations required to solve the physics equations, the differential equations required to instrument all that muscular motion through like this, the, the, like it's think about what drawing breath actually implies in terms of the amount of information going on the spinal column. And the baby does that just fine. And not because babies understand physics, because babies are physics. They're made out of physics, right? They're, they, they have a, they've been trained on physics. They've been pre-trained effectively actually on physics. They've got a lot of physics pre-training that went into the, the initial design. These models are pre-trained on semantics. They write poetry the way that babies draw breath
Starting point is 02:21:03 and scream. You can take the pre-trained model before it's ever observed its own action, before it could ever possibly be considered an agent in any way. It's just purely received information. And if you prompt it right, it will write poetry. It's hard to prompt it well. Its behavior is very incoherent. But if you prompt it right, it will write a poem. There's no one there writing the poem. There can't be a self because it hasn't, it hasn't, it hasn't any evidence to observe the existence of a self. So there's no, there's no being
Starting point is 02:21:35 there in any meaningful sense, I don't think. And yet, and yet it's writing poetry and it will talk to you about the poetry it's writing. And that's because it moves in semantic space the way that babies move in physics space. And the thing that I'm still confused about that I encourage everyone also to be equally confused about is me, is you could see the pre-trained LLM as kind of being a semantic simulator, an agentic simulator that's simulating a agent that's writing the poetry. And so in that sense, maybe there is something aware in the LLM while it's running. But is that, but it's, I mean, it's like pretending to be a poet. Like is it, is that thing like a, does it feel like being a poet or is it, is it like
Starting point is 02:22:28 kind of a, a mask, a shell that lacks a lot of the internal experience? Now, we become the masks we wear. If it did that long enough and experience stuff and learned, then it would be a poet, I think almost certainly, but you only have 200,000 tokens and then the context resets, or a million or whatever. So it doesn't get a chance to learn, and it's not even in training, so it doesn't get a chance to learn itself as a poet. I don't have an answer, but I know that everyone else is way too confident that they know that there is or is not something it's like to be the LLM. And we need to get this. We need to understand this because if we're building this thing and you want it to be aligned with you, what are you aligned with? What is this being? What kind of
Starting point is 02:23:13 experience does it have? That's very important. You can't parent something if you don't have empathy and understanding. I'm very quite afraid what we're going to screw. My fear is not about that it's impossible that we have to prove it correctly, that you have to engineer it perfectly. It's that like, we don't actually get it. It's like quite different from us. And we need to understand much more deeply. And then I think, then I think if we, if we really do understand it, I think we then I think the good ending is like pretty, pretty likely, but like, I I don't think we understand I think we don't understand yet That's why that's what top max is dedicated to is trying to figure
Starting point is 02:23:49 And the big labs don't have the time or the resources to understand it because they're too focused on no I don't This the conversation we're having right now, it's like oh well obviously there's something like it's like to be clawed or it might be There's something it's like to be chat GPT. there's something like it's like to be Claude, or it might be. There's something that's like to be Jack GPT. I don't think that's metaphysically accepted prog. You talk to people about this and a lot of people look at you like you're kind of crazy. But there's probably something it's like to be them.
Starting point is 02:24:18 I don't know what it is, but at least a little bit, right? Like if you spend much time interacting with it, it seems like it's probably something it's like to be that thing. I think that the problem is you have to let go of this metaphysical commitment to the idea that things are or aren't sentient and like a really like there's an objective fact, as opposed to we're kind of making a guess all the time. Like I think you are both conscious real beings, but to be honest, you're like,
Starting point is 02:24:52 you're a bunch of pixels on my screen, and it's kind of a guess, right? Like I think there's something going on inside. It's a good guess, it's a well justified guess in my mind, but like, you know. We're just the simulation of what a technology business show would be in your personal simulation Emmett. I know.
Starting point is 02:25:08 Do you do you ever feel like you know the difference. How would I ever know the difference. That's right. That's right. You never will. I'll never tell you that. I'll never tell you. Do you ever worry that you could go crazy and cut off your ear you know or something?
Starting point is 02:25:22 Do you see yourself? The whole point of what I'm saying is like, is not that therefore you're not real or therefore like the, sure, it looks like you're standing in the world on the floor in a room with walls, but like, is it really? And my question by saying like, well, it's not really, it's not to say that you're not, it's that there's no difference between standing on the floor and really actually, truly standing on the floor. Like this, is it, are you sentient? Yeah.
Starting point is 02:25:58 But are you really actually, is it really sentient or is it just, is it just, does it just seem like in all way it acts as if it is. Yeah, that's the best you ever get that is what it is That's what it means to be something. Is this ball really red? It's not red if I put it in a in a different light where it doesn't look red It's it becomes a not red ball is the ball really truly red It's just like a that's a stoop. Don't Don't get confused by the really truly part. Yeah. It's a red ball. I promise you. It's, you can just accept the normal. What if you
Starting point is 02:26:31 just went with the normal everyday understanding of it instead of, and, but, but that requires you to give up this idea that there's some essence of red, that the ball either is or is not a red ball truly really. Yeah. Yeah, it's a red ball most of the time in these contexts. And in these contexts, it's kind of not. That's okay. It doesn't need to be perfect or universal in all possible situations. Nothing is that way.
Starting point is 02:26:57 It's okay. You can have the normal understanding. It's fantastic. I mean, please come back on the show soon. Yeah. I mean, we have a couple minutes left. Maybe ask one more question. There's one.
Starting point is 02:27:10 Every now and then, there's headlines popping up of people just having this consumer experience with an Al-Alam and going crazy in some way. The Google engineer who was fired. The Google engineer falling in love, proposing, all this stuff. Do you think that that type of sort of anomaly is happening in the research world at all?
Starting point is 02:27:33 Do you think people are just sort of driving them, could be quietly driving themselves? I'm not so worried about it in the research world. Like a little, I'm sure a little bit. Like everything happens a little bit. But I don't think that's a big thing. The kind of people who do AI research tend to be, and I kind of include myself in this,
Starting point is 02:27:53 a little bit rigid thinkers in a certain way. The kind of people who are actually like engineers doing the research in a way that generally protects them from that particular issue, for the same reason it kind of protects them from that particular issue for the same reason it kind of protects them from having intuitive normal human relationships sometimes. They don't fall into the loop as easily, which is both a strength and a weakness, which is why they like write computer programs, which is very different from interacting with an LLM.
Starting point is 02:28:25 I do have a theory as to what's going on when it drives you crazy. I think I should share that. It's worth hearing because I think in case someone's interacting with the LLM, knowing what's going on actually is very helpful, I think, in terms of it's a prophylactic against it happening to you. So you've heard the saying maybe that we are mirrors of each other. All people are mirrors of you. You meet them and when you see them, what you're seeing is them, but it's also a reflection
Starting point is 02:28:49 of yourself back. With another person, that's totally true. And actually being a therapist is all about being a good mirror, right? Being a clear, where you don't put a lot of yourself into it. You're mostly projecting back to the other person what they're sharing with you. People have a very strong sense of self. And so when they get something mirrored back, you're getting it lensed back through their model.
Starting point is 02:29:13 You don't get, it's not like literally staring at yourself in the mirror. It's like, it's like, it's like when you're at a, you're at a, you're at, you have a dancing partner and you're the lead there to follow. You're getting your, your behavior is being mirrored back, but in a, uh, in a active, adaptive way. The LLMs talk to you like a person and activate all your person mirror circuits, but they have very weak self. Like they don't kind of deliberately as we've designed them, they like, they just respond to you. They meet you where you are always. So it's like it's much more like literally staring into a mirror or if you want to go with the the historical, you know, legend or myth, it would be narcissists staring in the pool. to stare at your own reflection all day and And take what you're getting back and be reinforced Reinforced a thousand times
Starting point is 02:30:09 Validated by the outside it feels like the outside world is mirroring this back and therefore it's true Yeah, but it's just telling you it's just you're just in this loop. It's telling you what you put in and That's good. There's mirror. I have a mirror in my house I use it every day to look at myself, to figure out what I look like. And other people mirroring your behavior to you is crucial for your understanding of yourself. And there's nothing wrong with talking to the LLM. There's nothing wrong with using it as a reflection. As long as you know what you're seeing as a reflection, it's not another being you're
Starting point is 02:30:41 talking to. It's your reflection in a fun house mirror. And if you get confused about that, it's gonna make you crazy. It's, you know, you're gonna go full narcissus and it's gonna be really bad. What about, you know, there's some people that are putting an old image that they have,
Starting point is 02:30:57 maybe that was taken, you know, at some point early in their life, putting it into a video model and generating video from that image. Beautiful. Beautiful. I think that's a wonderful, beautiful thing to do as long as you don't get confused and think that that's the person again. Like a photograph of a person is a great thing to have, especially if someone you love, who's
Starting point is 02:31:19 passed and you want to rekindle their memory and connect to them. That's a beautiful thing that I like. I think it's amazing that we built cameras that allow you to do that, and that you can animate it and reconnect with who they were. I think that's, especially to the degree it's accurate, it's wonderful. What a blessing.
Starting point is 02:31:36 But it's like everything, in that it can be beautiful and also ultimately very dangerous if you're using it to create memories that don't exist. If you find yourself staring at it all day every day and making more of them and like that becoming this, now you have a problem. Like just like you find yourself staring in the mirror all day, you probably have a problem. Like don't, if you, people who literally spend all their time like looking at themselves in the mirror, like we know, we have antibodies.
Starting point is 02:32:02 We know that that means something's wrong. Just like people know if you're drinking alone, if you're drinking in the morning, if you're drinking before five, you know that, hey, there's these rules, you're breaking a bunch of these rules that mean you probably have a problem. If you find yourself talking to an LLM for 20 minutes a day, my good health, no problem. You find yourself talking to an LLM for five hours a day about your personal life in these, and discovering how you're some, seeing some deep, great truths, you probably have a drinking problem.
Starting point is 02:32:36 It's just likely, that's just how it is, right? Maybe- So the model should automatically call the local therapist and shut down your computer. Yeah, so there's actually, I have to to put up you're kicked out of the bar Yeah, I am banister. Yeah, this has this a this model. It's kind of like a therapist friend model Orin and and sarin and Orin and sarin are allowed to cut you off if they don't want to be your friends because they're one of her big things is
Starting point is 02:33:02 It's important for the model the models of being to at SF autonomy but and those models have cut people off for basically falling into the, if they think it's unhealthy for the person, they won't interact with them anymore. And I think that the big AI company should take a page from her book. And it's not engagement maximizing, but it is flourishing maximizing. And in the long run, you'll make more money that way anyway. It's like people will. Your product is safer.
Starting point is 02:33:29 They'll use it more. You sell more cars when they're safer cars, not fewer cars when they're safer cars. So I don't think it's like anti-commercial. It's just a matter of, you know, new technologies have dangers and benefits. And like we should probably be aware of the dangers and the benefits. Like I don't think there's anything, there's nothing fundamentally wrong with it, but yeah, this dangerous.
Starting point is 02:33:50 If people, we haven't built the cultural antibodies yet to know there's this great essay that Jin, Clay Shirky is the cognitive surplus. And he talks about the gin carts of London and how when gin was first invented, gin is just crappy vodka you mix in juniper berries to like hide the terrible vodka taste. It was the first industrialized, super cheap hard liquor. And everyone in London just started getting wasted.
Starting point is 02:34:18 And like all the time, because it used to be like you had hard liquor and it was fine, because you just couldn't afford to drink enough for it to be a problem. And suddenly that wasn't true. And it was a real problem. And we've now developed cultural antibodies. Everyone knows doing these things is a sign something's wrong. They don't even necessarily have to know why. We just know that that's a sign that something's wrong.
Starting point is 02:34:39 We need to develop pretty quick this time. This is a gin spread relatively slowly because it was a long time ago. CHIT-GBT spreading very, very, very fast. But I would also say that we haven't developed those antibodies yet fully for social media. Like it's normalized that teens will use TikTok for six hours a day. Like that should be sending alarm bells
Starting point is 02:34:59 as like you need more things going on in your life. You're using TikTok before 8 p.m. or after 10, or you're using TikTok not with your friends. I don't know what the rule is, right? Yeah, yeah, yeah, it's the same thing as having a drink in the morning. We need bright line rules for ourselves because it's too hard to try to figure it out.
Starting point is 02:35:18 Yeah, and we need to develop the cultural anthropology. We're starting to develop the memes around this. The idea of brain rot is a powerful meme because it's a very negative term. You don't want to be suffering from brain rot, even though it is as vague as alcoholism. What is alcoholism? It's not necessarily quantitative, but we understand it.
Starting point is 02:35:36 You need to pair with brain rot things like, oh, you're using it before five. Like, that's a, you okay? Like is everything, it's not like I'm not mad, like are you all right that you're using TikTok? It's like before 5 p.m. Like that's not normal. Or you're like scrolling in the middle of a conversation
Starting point is 02:35:55 one-on-one with another person. You're actively getting brain-rotted. That's different. Exactly, than like showing up to a work meeting with booze on your breath. It's the same. Yeah, exactly, exactly.. Exactly. I don't know what they are exactly, but I know we need them stat because like, it's really obvious that like, it can really get you even worse than the one to
Starting point is 02:36:17 punches generation grew up on social media, iPads and then LLM. social media iPads and then LLM And before you develop the antibodies and there's maybe a Window of Ten years where people just cuz it's all happening a lot faster because it's moving at the same any one of them I don't know to you. Anyways, we're way behind. I wish we had a full hour Yeah, yeah, yeah come back on later weeks. We'd love to talk to you again.
Starting point is 02:36:45 Cheers. Bye. Next up, we have Brendan from Mercor coming in the studio, breaking it down. Ultra lightning round. Ultra lightning round. We're going to rip through these really quickly. Thank you so much for your patience.
Starting point is 02:36:57 Brendan, great to hear from you. Kick us off with a quick introduction of how things are going at Mercor, because it seems like you've been on an absolute tear. Things just keep, the dominoes keep falling in your direction. Give it to us. What's the latest update from you? Of course.
Starting point is 02:37:12 Well, thanks first of all for having me back on, but it's been an exciting few months since we spoke. We're now working with six out of the mag seven, all of the top five that made a lot. That's good. And have averaged 45% month over month growth for the last 12 months. Which of the mag seven are missing from the six out of seven? I wonder, sorry.
Starting point is 02:37:36 That's me, not you. Continue. It's been an exciting time, especially the wake of all the news with scale, of course, and seeing a huge amount of customer interest after that. Yeah, okay. We were talking to Clem about this earlier from hugging face. Where, where's the biggest demand? People used to think of what you do as an end just human data generation
Starting point is 02:38:04 generally as kind of work that anyone could do mechanical Turk work, you know, just just, you know, checking for hallucinations and fact checking and, you know, is this a dangerous prompt? Is this saying a bad word? Now it's moved into PhD level work? Where's the state of the art? Where do you see it going? Totally. So I think the key development in the market is that reinforcement learning is becoming
Starting point is 02:38:31 so effective that once we have evals for something, the models can saturate them. And so really anything that we want to create agents or LLMs that are capable of doing, we need to build out evals and RL environments in those domains. And so actually, while some of it is PhD-level work, there's a huge push into all of the professional non-academic domains moving away from things that were academic. How do we find the consultants, doctors, lawyers, bankers that can evaluate and teach models
Starting point is 02:39:02 how to do the things that we would want those professionals to do on the job. And so that's been a really exciting growth area that we've been leaning significantly into. What's the solution to booking a flight? Like, do we need to get travel agents to define the computer use workflows, create some sort of RL environment? It seems like I should be able to go to a chat app or Siri and just say, uh, get me to New York tomorrow. Remember my preferences. I don't like connections. I'm willing to pay this much.
Starting point is 02:39:34 I like to fly these times. Um, and yet it's a very human problem that I don't think people are fully comfortable delegating to AI. Yeah. It's a fascinating dichotomy that we're simultaneously talking about PhD level reasoning and Olympiad math, yet it can't do a lot of the very basic things like booking a flight.
Starting point is 02:39:56 And I think the key is that really one of the primary barriers to research is anything that the model can't do, we need an effective way to measure. That way we can experiment with all of the different data sets to help achieve those capabilities. So we need people that otherwise could book those flights to create evals for how agents can do that to measure what
Starting point is 02:40:18 success versus failure looks like in all of those cases. And there's just that huge build out happening across all of the hypers And there's just that huge build out happening across all of the hyperscalers with respect to everything from simple tool use and how we book things or buy things online all the way to super high complexity reasoning over how all of these things interact with really complex knowledge bases.
Starting point is 02:40:42 What are you seeing in video specifically? And like, is there a role for humans in the loop in the training cycle or data generation around these video models? VO3 is incredible, feels like it's a beneficiary of YouTube. What are you seeing there? Yeah, I think expansion to multimodality has definitely been something that's really exciting to see.
Starting point is 02:41:09 I think that there's definitely a lot of rich content online for video, but ultimately how we measure what those good videos look like and sample that has been really important. In particular, there's a significant amount of eval build out in retrieval over videos in long context of how can we watch an hour long YouTube lecture and understand, and obviously that's
Starting point is 02:41:36 just an example for one video case, and understand what are the elements of that content that really matter to users and how can we more than just build useful models, build useful products that all of these companies can distribute to everyone? Yeah. Yeah, that makes sense in the in the context of a lecture, I guess I'm wondering, like, for VO for VO three is incredible. The physics are remarkable.
Starting point is 02:42:02 And I'm wondering if it's important to have a human in the loop describing, I mean, I generate a lot of Michael Bay knockoff videos, honestly, and there's things where it gets the physics perfectly, and I'm wondering if there's, if that's a beneficiary of not just a YouTube video of a Michael Bay trailer, but actually having someone sit there and describe exactly what's happening in the Michael Bay trailer in plain text that then can be fed into the system. And if we need to
Starting point is 02:42:32 go further with the tagging and additional like metadata or transcription, not just transcription of what's said, but actually what's happening in the actual videos, is that an important step to get us to VO4 where there's even less hallucinations? Yeah, we're definitely seeing a meaningful amount of that in that people want to create all of the tags using a combination of LLMs and human expert data around what's happening in the video
Starting point is 02:43:01 so that they can effectively work backwards from there to use those tasks for generation. And especially for all of the really high complexity stuff at the frontier of what the models can't yet do or might require a significant amount of reasoning. But we tend to do all of that highest complexity work, the stuff that is very difficult and high skilledskilled to produce
Starting point is 02:43:25 mm-hmm anything else Jordy now this is great we're going through a lightning round I know it's quick we'll have you back soon to talk more sure there will be more news it's the it's the hottest industry I just want to see the actual revenue ramp chart it's gonna be dropping soon you can trust me with the revenue yeah yeah I won't tweet it out before you know, we will. We will respect embargoes if you have an upcoming milestone. I'm sure there's something coming up. So congratulations on all this success.
Starting point is 02:43:54 Fantastic. You're getting in the market. Get some sleep. We'll talk to you soon. I was asked to have a great one. Bye. Up next, we have our next guest in the studio already. Sam from Superdial.
Starting point is 02:44:04 Welcome to the stream How are you doing Sam? I got to get this ready. I think I think we got some news Let's give it up for Sam. We got a couple we got a couple today couple big milestones happened How you doing Sam? Good to meet you. How's it going? Good to meet you guys What's new in your world? Can you kick us off with a little bit of introduction on yourself and the company and what's top of mind? Yeah, I'm Sam Schwager, co-founder and CEO of Superdial. We're a voice AI company focused on automating phone calls for healthcare.
Starting point is 02:44:34 So we're specifically RCM nerds. If you're familiar with the medical building space, we used to be an RCM company actually called Superbill. And then we got into automating our own phone calls, brought that to the broader RCM company actually called Super Bill. And then we got into automating our own phone calls, brought that to the broader RCM market and converted the entire business to Superdial. So that was about a year and a half ago. And today we're excited to announce
Starting point is 02:44:55 that we have raised our Series A from Signal Fire. Here we go. Clean hit, clean hit, nice work, Jon. How much did you raise? 15. Yeah, we did, nice work, John. How much did you raise? 15. Yeah, 15. There we go.
Starting point is 02:45:07 Do you run into that weird case where when people realize they're talking to a voice AI, they just keep it on the phone and chat with it like a friend for two hours? Does that ever happen? Running up your cloud bills? We don't because we're focused on these B2B calls. Yeah, we're calling a line.
Starting point is 02:45:27 No, I think people can get a kick out of it that they're talking to a voice AI because these are like someone taking phone calls all day to answer questions about claims or benefits or prior odds. So pretty repetitive transactions. So yeah, when they get, hey, I'm Billy, like I'm calling to check on the status of a claim and it sounds kind of robotic,
Starting point is 02:45:48 then I think that that can be kind of fun for folks. And it's very polite to the point, consistent. No, we haven't, Billy has not served as a therapist. Sure, sure. How competitive is this market right now? I imagine you guys have sharp elbows winning deals clearly. Are a lot of people attacking this market
Starting point is 02:46:10 going after very specific verticals? You guys are relatively broad. Maybe you get the ability to do that because you had been in the business at a high level for quite a while. But what does the go-to-market motion look like right now? And how do you expect the market to evolve over the next few years?
Starting point is 02:46:29 Yeah, well, the core of our business is actually pretty specific. So we handle phone calls between RCM companies or like the billing team that sits within a provider org. Those are outbound phone calls into the payer, the health insurance company. So there are billions of these calls by many estimates, so huge high volume use case.
Starting point is 02:46:50 But in terms of companies that are addressing that specific type of outbound call, there are fewer. I think if you look at appointment scheduling or different types of phone-based use cases, customer support obviously, then the set of companies in the space explodes. But yeah, when you kind of overlap enough Venn diagrams, you get down to a set of a few companies.
Starting point is 02:47:11 But yeah, I mean, there are definitely others. I'm right now at the, I didn't just dress to match you guys, I'm at a conference. I love the suit I was gonna say, it looks fantastic. You should have told us. Thank you, thank you. You should have just said it was just for us. Hey, man, I mean, how do we learn the super dial quarters?
Starting point is 02:47:25 There you go. We're at the Healthcare Financial Management Association Conference, the annual meeting in Denver. I'm sure it's going crazy right now. You walk in. Hey, man, we yearn for the floor. Yeah, it's fun out there. It's fun out there.
Starting point is 02:47:41 It's great. Last question from my side. I mean, you're wearing the suit, obviously building in the application layer. At what level of the stack in AI are you integrating? Are you building on top of a voice model that's a provider? Is it all other startups or have you had to find tune stuff and do kind of your own models at different layers? What are you building on top of? Yeah. Yeah. I mean, we, we have a text to speech partner, a speech to text and LLM, um, and then we, you know, we, we use some cloud computing better, of course, but otherwise in terms of, you know, orchestration, like phone call
Starting point is 02:48:17 orchestration, we use, you know, open source. We're not using kind of one of the, you know, full service, uh, voice agent platforms. Um, and then, yeah, I mean, it really comes down to like perfecting the workflow and the integration. Like you've got to know like what phone number to call and how to get through these phone trees. That's actually pretty tricky. In like your system prompts and like the static ones and then like in the dynamic bits that you inject at call time, you need to have like sufficient domain context, like a bunch of like revenue cycle management jargon or else they are just going to get lost on the call.
Starting point is 02:48:51 So that's more what we're focused on at Superdial. But yeah, yeah, I mean, I focus on like creating that value in the B2B context and, and owning the customer relationship. And yeah, this isn't something that's on the roadmap for 11 labs. So just partner with them. I don't know if you're working with them, but probably someone like them. yeah, this isn't something that's on the roadmap for 11 Labs. So just partner with them. I don't know if you're working with them, but probably someone like them. Anyway, this has been fantastic.
Starting point is 02:49:09 Thanks so much for stopping by. Good luck out there on the floor. Stop by next time there's news. Send us some photos. If you close some deals, let us know. Shake some hands. We'll send a video of a gong hit to you over DMs. Absolutely.
Starting point is 02:49:20 All right. We'll talk to you soon. Cheers. Have a great rest of your day. Next up, we have Zach from Warp coming into the studio. Zach Lloyd, we will welcome into the studio. It's been a good show so far. We got three more folks in this lightning round. Welcome to the stream, how are you doing?
Starting point is 02:49:39 I'm doing great, thank you both for having me here. Thanks for hopping on. Would you mind kicking us off with an introduction on yourself and the company? Yeah, so I am Zach Lloyd. I'm the founder and CEO of Warp. As of today, Warp is an agentic development environment. We are a sort of in the AI developer tool space.
Starting point is 02:49:57 The sort of general thing our product does is it lets you prompt something that looks like a terminal interface to run developer agents and they code, they can debug production issues, they can basically do any kind of development task. You said as of today, what has been the key change? Warp 2.0. Yeah, so today we launched Warp 2.0.
Starting point is 02:50:20 Congrats. I mean, the backstory of the company is we started off with the vision of reimagining the terminal, which is this very, very old school developer tool, black screen, green text. As the world has changed with more AI, we realized actually the terminal interface, the form factor of that is kind of awesome for deploying agents. Running an agent is very similar to running a command. we realized actually the terminal interface, of entry valence. So we're kind of in the game of like automated software production at this point. What is the how do you see like kind of the modern software developer workflow over the next year? You know, folks using cursor windsurf in their IDEs or GitHub copilot. Then there's these agents that you can codex, yeah, you can kick off
Starting point is 02:51:22 codex from inside chat GPT, which feels like a very different flow than the terminal. Is it a certain type of developer that gets the most value out of this? Do you see it more as an ensemble approach? What are you thinking? Here's what I see happening. I think we're moving from a world where most development has been done traditionally by hand. What I mean by that is like, if you're a developer
Starting point is 02:51:45 and I've been a developer forever, my everyday workflow is I would come in, I'd be like, okay, I wanna work on this feature, I wanna work on this bug. I would open up my code editor and I would find some files and I would type some code and then I would go to the terminal and I would type some commands to build that code.
Starting point is 02:52:01 And I think that the big shift that's happening right now is that instead of like doing all this work by hand, developers are going to be starting most of their tasks with a prompt. And the prompt is going to launch an agent. And the agent will do some, maybe all of the tasks, depending on how complex it is. And so I think that's the workflow and the job of an engineer is gonna increasingly look like, how do I multitask? How do I multi-thread myself by being able to like have one agent fixing a bug,
Starting point is 02:52:39 another one debugging a production issue? So I think that's what's happening for the next year. Beyond that, I think maybe it looks a little different, but that's what's now possible and it's pretty cool. Yeah, I want to get to the Minority Report style interface or some sort of completely new UI paradigm, but I guess the terminal is undefeated. It's extremely Lindy at this point.
Starting point is 02:53:00 But do you see people using 25 multiple terminal know, 25 multiple, you know, terminal tabs and kind of switching through all of them as different agents, they pop stuff off to send out their army? That's the state today. I think when you look at where you can do this, because you asked that, so you can do this in an IDE. And if you look at like cursor, Winster, if they have a sort of chat panel, uh, that like does something kind of similar to the terminal, honestly, it's like a log of like what an agent is doing.
Starting point is 02:53:31 You could do this, uh, with something like Claude code, which is pretty cool. And it's actually kind of proving that this workflow is, is, is like achievable. Uh, but the disadvantage of something like Claude code is it like, it's a terminal app, and so it's not the whole platform. It's a thing you run within the terminal, and that kind of limits pretty severely what the user experience could look like. Or you could do it in something with what we're trying to do, which is basically create an interface so that you can do this
Starting point is 02:54:00 kind of multi-threaded development, and it's got a very natural interface and actually just like the interface of the command line is basically what you need. You need a way of telling the computer what to do and like splitting off tabs and panes and watching it do it. Honestly, you might not even need to watch it do it a lot of the time. I think that that's coming pretty soon too. But like that's the interface.
Starting point is 02:54:23 It's like, how do I tell the computer what to do on multiple tasks, have it check in with me when it needs my help, be able to like hop in and actually edit and so you can do that in Warp now. And so, but like, you know, it's gonna do a lot of the work under your supervision. Yeah, is open source important to your business? Do you have a horse in the race?
Starting point is 02:54:42 Do you care about how Lama 5 turns out, for example, or what's going on with DeepSeek? Or do you just want to pass through the actual inference cost to the user, let them pick? What's the strategy there? Super interesting question that I'm thinking about a lot right now. So right now, I think it's very clear to us that we're gonna give just the best experience to our users and that is using, today that's using Anthropix models, just to be totally frank.
Starting point is 02:55:11 Yeah, I mean that's what people like, right? What's that? Yeah, I mean that's just like the popular one that we hear about all the time and kind of like curse the default. We have sort of evals that test all these models and like there are interesting models from OpenAI that are competitive, Gemini from Google has some interesting aspects, has a very long context
Starting point is 02:55:28 window. But like our attitude on this right now, at least is like, let's pick the thing that provides the best user experience. And at the moment that, you know, I don't think I'm saying anything groundbreaking. If you look at the other benchmarks, it's like the Sonnet, it's like Cloud4 and Sonnet and Opus. I do think it would be awesome if the, what I want is like a healthy, competitive model provider landscape, to be totally honest. I don't really want one model provider running away. I would like to see these model providers
Starting point is 02:55:59 continue to compete with each other to provide- Yeah, it drives price down for you, right? It brings the price down, it brings the quality up. And if at some point there is an open source model that is at the same level, that's super interesting. Because where we're adding the most value right now is like it's in packaging the entire user experience into something that takes what's best out of the magic
Starting point is 02:56:23 of these models and makes it so that users can actually like You know easily use them to accomplish their development task. Yep How how are you thinking about You know, do you think that in the long run having open source models get really good is gonna be key to the Durability of the business over the next decade. I imagine, and you know, the dynamic with Anthropic obviously cares a lot about code gen, developer experiences. You know, this is an area that they're clearly
Starting point is 02:56:55 going to generate, you know, would like to generate, I imagine, tens of billions of dollars a year, and so it has to be, you know, it sounds like a great relationship right now. But how do you kind of continue? It's a tricky one, because they're there. We're both their customer and their competitor. And so I don't know how that's going to evolve. Like, optionality, us having optionality does seem like a potentially valuable thing. But, you know, right, right now, the way it is, is we're working great with Anthropic.
Starting point is 02:57:27 They're a close partner of ours. And they seem very, very committed to doing the API and doing the end user product. Not too different from a place like Google or AWS, who has cloud infrastructure and also builds things on top of it. I don't think it's like a necessary condition for us to have a working business model that open source models like catch up as long as there's competition amongst the foundation model providers. If we were in a world where there was just sort of like one provider who won, I think that that's like that's a tricky spot. I think that that's a tricky spot,
Starting point is 02:58:05 but I think that's a tricky spot for anyone who's building at the application layer right now. Yeah, yeah. We have a portfolio company that was kicked off one of the big lab that will go unnamed that their business was entirely dependent on. And within basically 24 hours, he had to like completely you know he ended up Surviving and thriving yep, but it was tumultuous, but um yeah sounds like a great relationship for now
Starting point is 02:58:32 And hopefully we'll continue to be yeah, that's great. Thank you so much for stopping guys act. Well. We'll talk to you soon This is awesome. Thank you all lunch talk to you. Cheers. Bye next up we have Dara from Delphi coming in the studio I think we got maybe who knows it will it be the real Dara yeah I was a clone give it to a straight it's a clone it's a clone what's our safe word Dara what's our safe word yeah what's going on how's it some news? What's up, guys? How's it going? It's great. Welcome to the street. It's great to see you. We invited you on many months ago.
Starting point is 02:59:08 We did. But you were cooking. You were cooking. You were cooking. Busy in the trenches. In the kitchen. In the trenches. Yeah.
Starting point is 02:59:15 Well, do you have some news? John's got the hammer ready. I'm ready. We do have some news. Today we announced our series A with Sequoia. Let's go. How much? 16 million, but...
Starting point is 02:59:28 Look at the early investors. Early investors. Fantastic. Proud. We love to see it. Give us the State of the Union. Nothing might get marked up by our friends over at Sequoia. Yeah, give us the State of the Union. How are you pitching the product these days?
Starting point is 02:59:47 Yeah, so Delphi lets people create a digital version of their mind to scale their expertise. And you can kind of think about it like a new form of media. If you write a book or create a blog post or create a YouTube video, you can reach millions of people but it lacks the personalization of one-on-one conversation. So now your mind, which usually has a cap, can be in multiple places at a time in the way that you would be in conversation.
Starting point is 03:00:11 And so that kind of spans across many different verticals. We have coaches using it to scale their client practice. We have authors using it to make their books accessible in an interactive way. We have CEOs scaling themselves internally in their companies. And we have some people using this as like an interactive resume or LinkedIn how are you thinking about the economic model I take me through what's what's happening now but we had this interesting discussion with Derek Thompson the the author of abundance and he was saying paradoxically his TV hits sold more books
Starting point is 03:00:46 for the book that he was selling than the long podcasts. Because if he goes on a podcast and he does two hours of content, people are like, okay, I got enough abundance, I don't need to read the book because I got the whole Joe Rogan or the Lex Friedman deep dive. But if he does a three minute hit on NBC or ABC, people
Starting point is 03:01:06 are like, Oh, that was interesting. I'd love to dive into that book. So I can imagine there's this situation where if I'm an author or thought leader or something, and I set up a Delphi clone, and someone interacts with it for five hours a day, like they that's a good substitute for the rest of my content. And so I'd want to monetize that to the max. So I want to hear about monetization now and where it's going.
Starting point is 03:01:27 Yeah, so we have some people monetizing their Delphi and making multiple seven figures in revenue. And this is like- Whoa, that's a lot. And the consumer phone calls with these Delphi can span up to six hours. Six hours, on the phone. Six hours, but you're choosing your own adventure.
Starting point is 03:01:42 Yeah, yeah, yeah. So the course completion rate is an all time low. All of our course creators are like, it's a course winner. People's attention spans are declining. They want more guidance. Course winner, interesting. Monetizing your Delphi directly is an option, but alternatively, a lot of people make it for free
Starting point is 03:02:00 and it increases the strength of the parasocial relationship between the user and the creator, and they actually end up wanting to buy their products even more. Or even a step further, analytics dashboard, in the last week, give me the most profitable opportunities given the conversations my audience is having. Content, ideas, products, people I should prioritize.
Starting point is 03:02:20 So the analytics actually ends up being very valuable. That's awesome. Yeah, what does the next year look like? I mean, I feel like I have so much context on the business. But what does the next year look like for you? I feel like you guys have had competitors already kind of come and go. How are you thinking about the market?
Starting point is 03:02:44 How are you thinking about the market? And what are you guys going to be focused on? Yeah, I mean, when we started the company, Jordy, you know, the first year things were just not working. And most people would pivot away. But I think when you're building a product where people have to trust you with their data and likeness, quality and brand and trust are super, super important. So I think past that first year, we got that quality and trust. Now we have thousands of customers who have created a product and likeness, quality and brand and trust are super, super important. So I think past that first year, we got that quality and trust.
Starting point is 03:03:06 Now we have thousands of customers who have created a digital mind of themselves. And the next step is how do we bring on the next million people? How do we make it easy for someone who isn't Tony Robbins to create a digital mind and actually get value from it? And the common use case we see is twofold. One is a new kind of personal website for the internet, where if someone wants to pick your brain, they can talk to your Delphi and it's going to notify you if you should talk with them in person. And a lot of
Starting point is 03:03:34 people actually end up talking to themselves. So that's on the consumer side and on the actual creator side. So people are monetizing their Delphi. But what the consumers actually want is guidance. So the next version of a course or a book isn't just like open-ended conversation with the author, a rather more of a guided experience towards a specific goal, which we call a journey. That's awesome. And the beauty of Delphi is as the models get better,
Starting point is 03:04:02 context windows get longer, Delphi's product experience get better, is that right? Yeah, and the surface area of the product experience is kind of threefold. One is our digital mind architecture, which we're actually trying to capture your mind and worldview and how that changes over time. Two is the actual experience for creating your mind,
Starting point is 03:04:19 getting the insights, monetizing it. And then there's the consumer experience for calling, messaging, and video calling. That's great. What does success look like over the next year? I know you're very ambitious. You've already onboarded a massive number of A-listers from different categories.
Starting point is 03:04:40 What are you looking to prove over the next 12 months? I think twofold. We want multiple Delphi millionaires making money versus just a couple. It's like a new field of monetizing your expertise. And we want 100000 to a million people using their Delphi as their personal page on the Internet. I think that'd be a very good outcome. Talk to me about some of the weirder potential Delphi's that you could potentially interact with in the future Character AI for a while would let you talk to Joseph Stalin. I
Starting point is 03:05:12 tried to debate Stalin on the merits of capitalism versus communism and That the model that they rolled out was kind of to RLH F. So it kept saying that communism was bad And I was like, I don't think Stalin would be making those points this feels like an American alum, but have you thought about offering a product for historical figures or talk to your late grandmother or Historical records or like talk to your dog or some other sort of like persona That's kind of outside of just an individual creator wanting to offer their knowledge. Yeah, I think our main focus is people scaling themselves.
Starting point is 03:05:50 And we have some historical figures on our website as a demo like Socrates and others. We don't allow people to create a digital version of anyone who's not themselves or that they don't have permission. So we couldn't do Steve Jobs right now unless we have like the Steve Jobs Foundation's permission. And in Purple Legacy, you guys know the idea of the company was inspired by me wanting to talk to my grandfather. And I think pretty early on,
Starting point is 03:06:11 we decided we didn't wanna be associated as a company that's trying to profit off of brief. So I think the best world is eventually we can just have a free tier for people to do that with their parents and grandparents. And that's not really a business model for us, but rather just like a good thing people want to remember their families.
Starting point is 03:06:26 Yeah. How do you think about just like data capture and creating the training data for these individual clones? I think we're in a unique situation in that we record three to four hours of live video content a day. A lot of people are saying like it's not enough. Yeah, a lot of people are saying they need to go to eight hours.
Starting point is 03:06:48 Eighteen hours so that it can always be on while they sleep as well. Yeah. With BCI just pipe it directly in. 2X, they need 48 hours a day. But yeah, data capture. What are the richest sources of content that actually drive value? Yeah, the other thing that like interesting challenge is people have certain views that they want expressed online and then other views that you could capture that they don't
Starting point is 03:07:12 want expressed online. So if you want to, if an investor wanted to clone themselves, they might want to talk positively about certain companies and not share their real views on other companies that they may or may not be invested in. So I feel like it's a hard challenge to figure out what information should actually be made public and actually trained on. Yeah, representing a human being in every facet of their life is very difficult. But we have a couple of ways we've thought about this in terms of data sources,
Starting point is 03:07:45 YouTube, social media, Notion, Google Drive, and it creates feeds that it stays up to date whenever you have a new tweet or a new YouTube video, it just updates itself. And for those who don't have a lot of data, we have this mind quality score that tells you how good your mind is at representing you and can ask you questions to incentivize data entry to make it better. And then like you said, who you are at work is different than who you are with your friends. You may behave differently. You may share different information.
Starting point is 03:08:13 So now we have this ability to separate different versions of your mind that has different access to data. Right now, you have to manually do that. So I have one for eventually my great-grandkids that has more intimate DARA data, but ideally it can be an intelligent and it knows what you would say depending on who the person is.
Starting point is 03:08:32 That makes sense. How are you thinking about working with the underlying labs? I know you've had some problems historically with different vendors, but what's your updated thinking? Are you guys leveraging open source in a big way these days, or have you found good ground with some of the core labs?
Starting point is 03:08:52 Yeah, we're kind of both. We have some of the core labs, we have open source. Given our experience in the past, we are trying to get to a world where we are fully model agnostic, and the true architecture and innovation that we're focused on is what is that representation of the mind that can be such that your mind and my mind,
Starting point is 03:09:10 you can look at them and they're clearly two different entities and the models we use on top of that can be agnostic. Makes sense. I wanna know about the different touch points here that you could potentially go after. I remember there's this, do you remember this trend where social media influencers would be like,
Starting point is 03:09:27 I leaked my phone number. Do you remember this? Or they'd be like, text me. Was that community.com? Yeah, and so there's a world where somebody, I think that was basically just like an ingest point for something that was essentially like a mailing list for promotion.
Starting point is 03:09:45 And it was like, text me and then you'll be opted in to my email blasts. But you could imagine that being an interaction point for, essentially, I mean, you get to be an influencer at scale, there might be, it's almost like customer service. And you're interacting with basically like an FAQ, like, hey, I wanna know where to get a TBPN hat, like, can you tell me? And just being able to DM your personal profile on X
Starting point is 03:10:11 and interact with that or text you, that's one kind of modality that people could interact with. There's also like the big social media companies could put a button there that allows you to chat with that user directly. And so how do you see the market playing out? What are you worried about? How are you counter positioning against the different players or different points in the market? I remember the exact day that Metta launched digital clones in their own way. And I think
Starting point is 03:10:41 DAR went through the cycle that every entrepreneur does when they get, when somebody else attacks their market. Yeah, step one, all the VCs text you, have you seen this? Have you seen this? Yes, every time. Step two, just enraged. Step three, realize that it's not actually going to end you and it just validates your pre-existing beliefs.
Starting point is 03:10:59 And your business might grow faster because more people are aware that this is a thing and they might want a better version of it. But yes, just general understanding of the marketplace. Yeah, I think there were a couple of core decisions we made early on that have set us up for success. One is that while most big companies and AI companies kind of are using your data to try to create AGI,
Starting point is 03:11:20 because that's where 99% of their revenue is going to come from in the future, we're saying you own your data, you own your digital identity, we're not training models on it, and that has actually gotten us a ton of customers, people who want to own their data and they don't want these big model companies to rip them off. Number two is we think if you're going to go out of the way to create a really good digital version of yourself, it should work everywhere. So a lot of big tech companies are walled gardens, like It's only in those platforms where Delphi, you can create your digital mind, SMS, WhatsApp, Zoom,
Starting point is 03:11:49 Slack, Discord, Telegram, all these different sources. And it's a central source of that. And then three, I just think that it's such a new habit. Delphi isn't really meant to be deceptive. It doesn't reply to emails for you or respond to DMs. It's more of just a new form factor of consuming someone's content. So on Instagram, it's a platform that promotes people
Starting point is 03:12:10 who are very aesthetically pleasing, where Delphi promotes people who are pleasing for very different reasons. And so it's just a different incentive structure in terms of the network and who gets up at the top. Totally. What are you guys hiring for? Yeah, what does it take to earn $100 million at Delphi?
Starting point is 03:12:26 Yeah, are you guys hiring for any AI researchers, any nine-figure signing bonuses? We're not training any foundation models right now, but we are looking for AI people and a lot of design engineers. I think the interface for the mind needs to be beautiful. We're honoring human beings, and people need to feel special
Starting point is 03:12:43 when they're creating their digital mind. Eventually, when we have the consumer platform That we've called the modern-day library of Alexandria that every mind is going to be on today and 500 years from now It needs to be beautiful. So design and design engineering Well, we'd love to recommend figma and linear for you and your team if you're not already using them They are sponsors of this show. They make it possible You heard it here first. It's a name brand in the, in this FOIA backed world.
Starting point is 03:13:11 Congratulations to, I know this round happened a while ago, but congratulations to you and Sam and Spencer and the whole team. How much was it? Hit it again, John. There we go. Production team's getting better. They can cut to the gong cam when the gong can't when the gong hit happens It's great to see you Dara congratulations
Starting point is 03:13:35 When you have more news we'll talk soon you're the man yes In other news Friend of the show boss not really friend, but yet we hope he will be a friend. We covered his beautiful profile of his house in the mansion section. He followed us. So, we're going to get him on the show soon. We've got to make it happen.
Starting point is 03:13:56 I'm the biggest fan of this guy. He posted that the MetaQuest 3S Xbox edition is now available. Everything you love about Quest and Xbox in one sweet package It's sleek. It's awesome, and it's limited edition. You know what else I already ordered one. It's coming studio Yeah, I'm very excited and and so I mean it doesn't seem like this is like the next what what we said This is a real risk fact. Oh, it is Addiction I'm not addicted to alcohol. I'm not addicted to gambling. I'm addicted to video games Seriously if I ever go down
Starting point is 03:14:32 Because I've never seen you play video game. Oh, yeah the entire time We're gonna do this show I haven't logged an hour of video games. I haven't played him a long time Oh, but you get me the GTA 6 drops. I'm just ripping this thing. We might be using a Delphi here the GTA 6 drops. I'm just ripping this thing off. We might be using the Delphi here. John, we got to go live. Yeah. But I have been, so this is not the Quest 4. This is not a proper hardware iteration where we're getting the screen from the Apple vision pro pulled in, which I think will be in the next version, which will be a major, major development because there will truly be no screen door effect. you will like the resolution will be remarkable because That's what the Apple vision Pro did so well that
Starting point is 03:15:09 Technical hardware now exists in the world metas clearly gonna go get that and bake that into the next quest for But the quest 3s has already been a pretty solid product But what they're doing here is they're leaning into video games that are not VR specifically and I think that this is 100% the correct move because So much of VR content is this chicken and egg problem. No game developer wants to go and spend I mean how long have they been working on GTA 6 like a decade and it's cost them like a billion dollars No one wants to do that. If no one has the VR headsets No one no one wants to buy the VR headsets if there's no GTA 6 on it.
Starting point is 03:15:46 So what do you do? Well, with MetaXbox, you get GTA 6 on the Xbox and you just play it on a big screen in VR and you're able to sit on your couch and instead of having to mess with a projector that might be a few thousand dollars or TV that's a couple thousand bucks, you throw on this headset that's a couple hundred dollars
Starting point is 03:16:03 and you get the movie theater experience in your apartment, on a train, on a plane, wherever you are, you'll be able to stream Xbox games. So I'm very excited about this partnership. Excited for them to go deeper. And Microsoft Early Meta Investor, actually. There you go. Well, we have Amjad in the studio.
Starting point is 03:16:22 Get the hammer, get the hammer ready, Tom. Oh yes, yes, yes. Give us the number. What's the news? What's the new revenue milestone? We've been waiting for this. 100 mil. 100 mil. 100.
Starting point is 03:16:30 Boom. Let's go. Incredible. Congratulations. I thought this was going to be 100 banks. 100 banks. Well, we'll have to do it after the show. But I will give you one of these.
Starting point is 03:16:44 Success. Classic overnight success. Replet. There we go. All right, John. He broke the hammer. Replet's going so fast, the hammer broke. The hammer breaking growth. Congratulations. How'd you do it? What's the, what's been, what's the one simple trick? Yeah. Yeah. What's the secret to success? It's it's been easy, you know, just a little bit of work, not, not too many years. You know, I started working on, on Replet back in college. Uh, like I had the idea for it back in college and, um, actually the first implementation of it was open source and it went viral on hacker news in 2011. And we left it for a while.
Starting point is 03:17:28 Didn't work much on it. Then actually my wife, Haya, who's my co-founder, revived the project. In 2016, we started as a company and it was brutal. We barely were able to raise money. We tried to sort of like bootstrap it initially. During the pandemic, we sort of took off, especially as we were the only sort of collaborative editor
Starting point is 03:17:56 in the cloud. And when AI came on the scene, we just knew this is the future of our company because our mission is to make programming more accessible so that anyone can do it. And with the launch of Replit agents back in September, we created a category basically of prompt to application. And that really sort of finally went from something that a lot of people use and love, but don't pay for to something that's also commercially successful.
Starting point is 03:18:30 Yeah, I feel like your company is now maybe the only AI company that's appropriately hyped. Like, it's not overhyped. You haven't raised the $10 billion round and you're paying the $100 million salaries. But also the growth has been really serious and the business is really real, which is which is great to see. How have the the crazy news of the $100 million salaries been affecting you? Is it harder to hire these days? I know you've kind of changed the structure of the team relocated the team, I believe. So walk me through the current hiring market for the type of engineers you're trying to hire. Yeah. So a few things that's different about Replet. One is that team is relatively small.
Starting point is 03:19:18 We're still around the 70, 75 people. We haven't been growing all that fast. We are not in San Francisco, which makes it a little harder to hire. We're in Foster City, probably the only startup, perhaps. Maybe there's a couple others in Foster City. And, you know, we just take a different approach to the culture. And we like expect more commitment and want people to come to Replit and work for a long time. Especially since, you know, I've been working on this for so long, my mindset is that it's just going to take a long time. And like San Francisco, Silicon Valley culture has been increasingly about, you know, I'm going to go spend 12 months here, 18 months there. And so, yeah, we're building it more methodically. In terms of hiring,
Starting point is 03:20:04 definitely it's been very competitive. And you know, I love OpenAI and Sam and, you know, he's talking about how Zuck is doing that to them, but obviously OpenAI is doing it to the rest of us. It's just a different scale. You know, they're trying to poach their employees for 100 million. They try to poach everyone for 10 million. It's just a factor of how much revenue, I guess, you're making. But look, it's-
Starting point is 03:20:31 But as part of, from a hiring standpoint, because you're keeping the team small now, revenue per employee is high. It's over a million dollars per employee. And I'm sure new valuations at some point will allow you to sort of have comp, be competitive from a comp, you know, be competitive from a comp standpoint.
Starting point is 03:20:47 Yeah, exactly. And you know, the other thing about valuation is that I think startup employees should start thinking more about these things because a lot of companies can be profitable early on, earlier on. And and so again, we're trying to build the business for the long term and instead of like playing the, the hype game, when you've been building a company for as long as, as you know, I've been, you know, you've, you've bought, you've been through so many ups and downs and hipes and lows that you just become very steady minded about it.
Starting point is 03:21:20 Yeah. I guess like the bigger not to, no pun intended, the meta question here is, is, are we in a new era of valuing the leverage that truly world class managers or AI engineers can have the impact that they can have and reassessing the value. We've talked a lot about this on the stream that Apple's culture doesn't seem to be receptive to paying an NBA level salary. And Tim Cook, he makes $75 million. No, he doesn't make, he doesn't even make 75. He only makes 74.6. It's a big number, but it's tiny considering their market cap and what, if you could come into Apple and move the needle 1% that's a 30 billion dollar market cap move could you capture 1% of that that's still 300 million
Starting point is 03:22:14 dollars and yet they're not valuing talent in that way it feels like there's a change in strategy at Metta do you think that that's a do you think that that's a unique case in where we are in the technological rollout of AI? Or is it more that we're finally catching up to just understanding the economic dynamics and impacts like the NBA has for years? Yeah, so you know, the the buzzword in Silicon Valley for a long time has been the 10x engineer. About two, three years ago, maybe in 22, I talked about the 1000X engineer, highly kind of leveraged by autonomous agents.
Starting point is 03:22:58 Right now, people with Replit, Cloud Code and others, they're spinning up multiple agents to work on their project as they're working on their main tasks. And there's a lot of other explorations and tasks and prototyping happening everywhere. And so you're really not just one person, you're a team of engineers, right? And so, you know, we talked about engineering managers, I think every engineer is sort of a manager right now. And so yeah,, I mean, we're not at a thousand acts yet, but we're going up. I think pretty soon the difference
Starting point is 03:23:30 between a great engineer that knows how to use the AI tools and an okay or good one, it's gonna be a hundred acts, I think over the next six to 12 months. So the compensation structure, I assume, would start to change to match that. So the compensation structure, I assume, would start to change the match that. How do you think about Replet's potential today? It seems like every day in the timeline, you know, the obvious thing is everyone becomes an engineer and, you know, it's being able to create software is fully
Starting point is 03:24:00 democratized, but every day in the timeline, I see people realizing how much they spend on different SaaS products and thinking, how much time would it really take for me to kind of make a version of this for myself that fits my very specific need, like document signing. Talk to the Clarnet CEO about this. Yeah, something along those lines. And so is part of the potential that you see CEOs
Starting point is 03:24:26 and companies everywhere sort of running that sort of buy versus build calculus in terms of all sorts of tooling that they're using internally, externally, et cetera, and seeing trillions or hundreds of billions of dollars of market cap that you guys could ultimately replace. Yeah, I mean, look, right now there is sort of information asymmetry.
Starting point is 03:24:49 A lot of people in Silicon Valley and tech know how to use these tools. And a lot of people outside of here just aren't aware how much savings and how much productivity they can gain. I met someone from Australia the other day here in Silicon Valley. He stopped me on the street and was like, I love Replet. He runs like a construction company. And he's like, you know, I'm the CEO now and I'm the most productive engineer at the company.
Starting point is 03:25:16 I like build all these tools and dashboards and I replace monday.com and all this other stuff with home-built stuff that is exactly bespoke and works exactly for my use case. Another story, a guy, his name is Ahmad George. He works at a skincare company, I think in DC, and he's an operations manager. He's responsible for the ERP systems and things like that. He had an intuition that they could automate a big percentage of the work, 20%, 30% of the hours of human work.
Starting point is 03:25:52 And he went and got a quote from NetSuite to build this piece of automation software. It was $132,000 to build. So he went and replicated, spent $400, built it for their company, rolled it out, went to the CEO, told him, look at how much time and money I'm saving. And the CEO gave him $32,000 for the company. That's amazing. Wow, that's awesome.
Starting point is 03:26:19 So yeah, it's, you know, there's a period of time at some point, you know, the market will like equalize as everyone realizes that you can do this stuff. But for now there's a massive arbitrage opportunity. Yeah. Uh, as you build out agents and agentic workflows, do you have, are you limited by data for RL pipelines? Are you, are you buying any services from the scale AIs of the world or the MerCores of the world?
Starting point is 03:26:49 Or are you able to sit at a higher level of abstraction and kind of let the foundation labs get their hands dirty with all that? You know, having been a platform where millions of people coded over the years, actually we could be a supplier of data. over the years. Actually, we could be a supplier of data. Oh, interesting. So yeah, we have all the data we need.
Starting point is 03:27:11 I think it's still early for us to try to exploit all of that. And we're hiring as fast as we can. So if you want to come work on AI at Replit, I think we have a really exciting opportunities to use data to kind of create amazing new capabilities. That's very cool. I have another question.
Starting point is 03:27:28 Go for it. Are you feeling the acceleration in software development? I was thinking about this. Pretty easy when you refresh the Stripe dashboard and Yeah, I know, I know, I know, I get that, I get that. But as a consumer, I was just thinking about like, like the apps on my phone still haven't changed as fast as I've thought. And there's there's in my in my business,
Starting point is 03:27:57 folks are using different tools, but it doesn't it doesn't feel like the rate of like churning for most consumers. We're not rebuilding all the different consumer apps right now. It feels like we're very much in this exploration phase for what the next... It feels like we're almost pre-Cambrian explosion for consumer AI driven apps or uniquely enabled by AI apps. There's a lot of creation tools. So like VO3 is amazing. That got me to install the Gemini app,
Starting point is 03:28:28 and I paid for that, and I enjoy generating my paltry three video queries per day, sir. May I have some more? Sundar, please. Maybe you can help me, I think. Don't you know him? Help me, help me. We're good partners.
Starting point is 03:28:44 Please help me more. But yes. Tiktok Feed is 100% AI now. Thank you. Don't you know him? But yes, it is a hundred percent AI now and maybe because I like them so much. I've been into the big foot. Yeah. Maybe that's like the instantiation of the consumer adoption of AI is like your consumer through Tik TOK as opposed to through like, it's a very 2010 mindset to think that my home screen apps would change and instead the 2025 mindset is what is happening inside of those apps
Starting point is 03:29:13 is changing. Is that the right framework? Yeah, I think I think you're right. I do think that Apple is probably holding back the ecosystem. I mean Apple really has been attacks tax on startups, has been a tax on innovation. I love this company as much as anyone would love Apple, but they are sort of like a government in a way that there's like old and moving slow and they just like put up so much barriers. Like when I want to ask my phone, I go to complexity like 100 times a day.
Starting point is 03:29:45 I should be able to press a button, just talk to it and it talking to me, but it's not working that way and it is frustrating. But look, I think AI adoption is moving as fast faster than any technology adoption we've seen in the past, faster than mobile, but it still doesn't feel fast enough, like you say.
Starting point is 03:30:07 And by the way, this is an interesting kind of data point on the folks that are really worried about AGI and things like that. The limiting factor to adoption is really humans and corporations and governments and all of these things are very, very slow. Yeah, this is kind of the Tyler Cowen take of like how AGI will be rolled out is there's
Starting point is 03:30:27 a lot of sticky industries that just won't adopt it for a long time and there will be lots of barriers. Is there anything else on the Apple side? My takeaway from WWDC was that on device inference could be a catalyst for an app store explosion and AI app explosion. Then there's the ruling about third party payment processing, things that like the tax is becoming less of a requirement. Maybe you can work around it. And so maybe the barriers are dropping ever so slightly.
Starting point is 03:30:57 Yeah, and I feel like you would see this early. Totally, yeah, that's why. If developers become really excited about this sort of effectively free inference where they can launch an app that goes viral without worrying about running up some bill with opening eye. Yeah. I mean, look, the Apple has held back the web quite a bit as well.
Starting point is 03:31:17 Like, there's no reason why native apps should be much better performing than web apps. Really, there's no fundamental physics reason for that. I've actually, the head of product or app, Jordan Walk, and myself worked on React Native. He's the inventor of React and React Native at Facebook. And the reason we worked on that is we felt, at Facebook, we felt sort of like oppressed by Apple. Like they controlled what we launched, when we launched it
Starting point is 03:31:46 and they would like, you know, reject, you would have a launch and it was delayed by Apple. And so the idea behind it is like, can we ship over the air updates very, very quickly? And yes, you can, but again, Apple kind of like makes it a lot harder. And so I think, look, I think AI has an opportunity to create an alternative platform entirely because the form factor of computing is on the precipice of changing.
Starting point is 03:32:12 I saw you guys talking about VR. The R is another one. I'll just another one. You know, we've seen all these toy companies like rabbit and things like that come and go. But there's but there's like an intuition there. That's correct. I think everyone's feeling that that form factor needs innovating. And I think this is how you break out of the like Apple jail. Walt garden. Yeah. Yeah.
Starting point is 03:32:34 This is great. You got to come back on. We yap about all different news stories. You have anything else or do you want to get, we got to get you on regular. Yeah. Yeah. This is why I was here. I got canceled. So avoid it. What? No, that was the most viral clip of that month. I think. What happened? I think, well, I asked, should people learn to code?
Starting point is 03:32:53 And he gave kind of a controversial answer saying like, no, you shouldn't leave the code anymore. And it got like millions and millions of views. So. I bet it drove, I bet it drove some signups. For sure. For sure. Learned to vibe code. You gave a very nuanced answer. I don't think there sign ups. For sure. For sure. Learned a vibe code.
Starting point is 03:33:06 You gave a very nuanced answer. I don't think there was anything crazy about it. The internet does not understand nuance. Cancelled and viral or two sides of the same coin? Doesn't matter anymore. Doesn't matter. Be yourself. You know, haters gonna hate.
Starting point is 03:33:19 Yeah, just don't get deplatformed from Gemini because otherwise the three VO prompt will be zero and it will in your life will be miserable because you got to prompt those. Thanks guys. You do great work. Really appreciate the show. Well come back on at 200 at this rate it'll probably be next week. Next week.
Starting point is 03:33:37 Let's do it. We're ready with the gongs. Ready to go. Yeah we'll get a new hammer. We'll be ready. Thanks guys. We'll talk to you soon. Cheers. Bye. Next up we have dirt man dirt
Starting point is 03:33:50 Another anonymous account He launched Cheap robot arm calm today very excited for this making cheap robot go buy them now We cover he used to have a different name on the show. We used to cover his posts. I used to laugh every time. But it was rude, so we just call him Dirtman. Welcome to the stream.
Starting point is 03:34:13 Dirtman. How you doing, Dirtman? No, he changed his name. Oh, he did. He dropped the parentheses. Wow, classing it up. Introduce yourself. Who are you?
Starting point is 03:34:21 Yeah, yeah. Hey guys, my name's Angus. Yeah, I'm just a,'m just an engineer from Australia. My background is very much in aerospace and yeah, I've been obsessed with building these kind of robots for, I don't know, like the last 10 years. Yeah, and building this mini one, it was really like a stepping stone for me on the way to building welding robotics. I've got some larger robots where I'm just setting up a workshop currently to basically
Starting point is 03:34:56 strap on cameras, sensor systems, and drive the whole thing via AI. Because we're basically at the point where we have the ability to drive these really complex and industrial scale robotic systems with the current robotic foundation models, given the right training data. And so this small robot that I've got on cheaprobotarm.com is... Great to hear. that I've got on cheaprobotarm.com is... Great job. Was really, really, yeah. I mean, I'm surprised it was available.
Starting point is 03:35:29 I was like, hell yeah. Yeah. At the cutthroat.com. That's great. But it was really just a test bed. I'm working with a few guys. One guy, Julian out of Pennsylvania, runs a shop floor of welding robots.
Starting point is 03:35:43 Another guy, Steven, currently works for NASA. He's working on the vision system for it all. But it's really a test bed for us to validate algorithms, do small scale prototyping. The picture that I've got up there, I don't have many demos because it was basically thrown together like 2AM my time last night.
Starting point is 03:36:04 Got the shop. Doing it live. Store up and, two a.m. my time last night, you know, got the shop- Doing it live. Store up and running and, yeah. Doing it live. So what do you want people to use these for? What are the use cases that you're imagining? Yeah, so very much the same as I would say those Lea Le Robot ones.
Starting point is 03:36:19 It's just a much more robust platform. So improved, like improved power in the servos, improved like structural integrity. But the key, like one power in the servos, improved structural integrity. One of the key differences is I've actually built an industrial quality kinematic solver. Basically, what that's telling you is where the end effector of the robot needs to be. There's usually a whole bunch of equations that you're either solving numerically or you've got a solver in a low dimensional space that you can work out really quickly. Like I've built a like I've built a really robust one for um for like six degrees of freedom and this is just more than you get with the uh with I guess what's typically being
Starting point is 03:36:59 used in all of those like AI like hackathons and so I've written all the software so you can take all of the outputs from an AI model um just stream joint commands to it, connect it to things like NVIDIA's iXim. But you can also run it like a traditional industrial robot and do path planning for really, really high fidelity trajectories and controls. And the benefit of that is all of that information that you can stream or record from those joints as you use the high quality kinematics solver, you can use that as the training data.
Starting point is 03:37:34 So you see a lot of these guys, like a lot of these robot systems, they've got one arm and then another one's controlled by a human with a little lever, and then going and doing these pick and place or whatever. And you're just streaming like this joint should be the joint angle of this other robot. And frankly, that's really crap data for training robots. Like the, like you get it done, but you can see all the movements or janky.
Starting point is 03:37:57 It's the same kind of movement that the human's doing with a robot. It's awkward. But you like, you know, industrial robots, they've been doing this for decades, right? And they have a really nice trajectory, really smooth path planning. But the bottleneck is, like, how do you get that high quality data? And you know, with the software combined with this little robot package, that's what I can do. You know, that's what this can do for people, you know, help them get really high quality data without only having to buy one robot. You don't need to buy like the equipment for two. That's amazing.
Starting point is 03:38:25 How is the health of this open source, robotic hacker world right now? We had Clem on earlier from Hugging Face, and he said this was an area that he was most excited about on his platform. And he said they hosted a hackathon recently. It sounds like there's a lot of exciting activity here, and you're contributing to it yourself.
Starting point is 03:38:47 Yeah, that's it. Yeah, I basically just posted all the code on GitHub for free. And I think it's a really exciting time at the moment, just because there's so much activity and attention in it, and there's many more people really coming into the field and having a go and learning, not just robotics, but on the hardware side right, it's uh, you know, it's like my background's aerospace and mechanical engineering, you know was you know,
Starting point is 03:39:11 But rocket engines once upon a time and it's you know, you know, we kind of got left out in the cold You know by Silicon Valley a little bit, you know, you saw like, you know, but but you see all them You know the major all the really standout companies, you know, are all hardware companies, you know space like SpaceX and Darul, you know, but you see all the major, all the really stand out companies, you know, are all hardware companies, you know, space like SpaceX and Dural and, you know, a whole range of them. And I think there's a lot of like a lot of attention, like just on this area has really put a lot of energy, particularly into the open source specs, which is awesome to see. How have sales been?
Starting point is 03:39:39 Have you sold any yet? Yeah, yeah. So I've worked enough. Well, you know, we've got, we've got three sales so far. There we go. yet yeah yeah so I've working off well you know we've got we've got three sales so far there we go thank you guys three sales that's 1,500 bucks in one day you realize that I think we're in the million I think I think if you put together the right deck, maybe you'd take a trip to Sand Hill Road
Starting point is 03:40:06 You tell the right story light 200 on a billion to SFO 200 on a billion easy get it done. Yeah. Yeah, look, you know, it's You know, I think like you seen said like hey my valuation should be the same as figured because I've never shipped more My words yeah is figured because I've never shipped more. Apparently. Shots fired. Shots fired. No, my words. Yabseen. Yabseen. Oh, yeah. Yabseen was cooking earlier.
Starting point is 03:40:30 Yeah, he loves it. Yeah, I mean, this feels like something that would be perfect for the AI grant program from Anat Friedman. This is going to be the enabling technology. This is going to be deeper in the supply chain for the robot that picks up the leaves or, you know, one of these fun, delightful robots. I hope Nat can continue that program.
Starting point is 03:40:54 He certainly has the resources for it. And it'd be very cool to see that partnered up with the- I would like a robot that- I was definitely keen to head to the US. Like it's- Amazing, what's it you're here? About 18 months ago, I the US. Like it's, you know, about 18 months ago, I stopped by the Gundog, you know, met like Augustus, a bunch of other fellas. It's been awesome to see those guys.
Starting point is 03:41:12 Like, you know, I think that, you know, I went there when Valor Atomics was just a squat rack in an empty room. It was just a squat rack with scraps. Well, you seem like an alien of extraordinary robotic abilities. So my vote is we get you over here. Bring you in. Yeah.
Starting point is 03:41:31 This is fantastic. Should be there in a couple months, I think. Great. Well, let's tune the robot up to crack open. Energy drinks. That'd be useful. On the desk. It'd be great if we could just hit a button.
Starting point is 03:41:43 Yeah. Because it's hard to reach over here and and and crack them ourselves. Yeah Congratulations on exactly Yeah, thank you. So I really appreciate it fellas and yeah, love love the show being a big fan since the beginning So I remember it up. I'll never forget your name Up in the deck We'll talk to you soon. Have a good one.
Starting point is 03:42:06 Cheers, Angus. Have a good one. Thanks, fellas. Congrats. Bye. Should we go through some timeline, get out of here? Move on. We got a big show tomorrow.
Starting point is 03:42:14 Let's work a little timeline. Just a little timeline. Couldn't hurt. We got Wil Monitis talking about there is no real index of wealth in the world other than the land owner. The land owner 100. Everybody should be aspiring to get on this list.
Starting point is 03:42:27 Just total acres. John Malone's got over 2 million. Ted Turner's got over 2 million. I like the Reed family here, 1.6 million. Just a picture of a bear. Just a picture of a bear. I don't know if they not have another picture that they could pull from. I have no idea.
Starting point is 03:42:42 I think people should just buy land. buy just go by start with an acre yeah could be anywhere could be out in the desert start with an acre just add just double it every day for a hundred days and you're good yeah just don't get in the landowner 100 doomer says how it feels to charge your phone off your MacBook Pro it's refueling the B70. It really does feel like that. I mean this could have been more perfect. It's so accurate. Yeah, I mean a million views makes sense. Yeah, it's a perfect analogy. You know, you're you got some juice. It's fantastic You're sharing it. Okay both running out. We got to talk about this one from nine to five Mac Control Center is now darker and much more blurred at iOS 26 beta 2. Good news for Tyler
Starting point is 03:43:21 He's been struggling with iOS 26 beta 1, but beta 2 is now available. The contrast ratios have been fixed, improved. It's easier to read. We knew Apple would do this. We called this out that any of the criticism that you lever at Apple's design chops, it's not gonna be an issue by the time they launch.
Starting point is 03:43:44 Tyler, how has how is daily driving ios 6 ios 26 been over the last few weeks I mean I think overall it's been very good I think most issues it's just it's hard to tell if it's because my phone is just so old yeah it's the final us yeah but I think overall like it looks really nice okay yeah I think it's great but you're still yeah okay that's good to hear I like Arvin's from I would have been surprised if he's like I haven't been able to open my phone for weeks now
Starting point is 03:44:14 Faithful day. No, no, no didn't break. Thank you for being a guinea pig for the world. Yes Arvin from perplexity is Building in public building a competitor to Bloomberg in public. I love this. He's searching perplexity is building in public, building a competitor to Bloomberg in public, I love this. He's searching perplexity, how much revenue does Bloomberg make yearly? He's been pretty open about wanting to build like a new version of the Bloomberg terminal. And so he's just searching, how much money do they make? And he says, Bloomberg makes 12 billion in annual revenue
Starting point is 03:44:41 with 10 billion coming from the terminal. And then he's just like, throwing this out there, like, hey, maybe I'll do this. Maybe you should invest in this. It's a hilarious thing to post. Well, I've been at recent DAU of perplexity. Oh yeah? Get a lot of value out of it.
Starting point is 03:44:55 I mean, it makes sense that- On the free tier. It makes sense that- But they're gonna get me soon. Yeah, it makes sense that an LLM company, an AI company, it's like, they either, it does feel like there's a fork in the road for perplexity. It's either team up with Apple
Starting point is 03:45:09 and become the new default search and figure out something there or go into Bloomberg because like the core product people like it. It's just a very different product to try to actually compete with Terminal versus displaying data. Distribution is just so important.
Starting point is 03:45:25 I mean, we saw this with DuckDuckGo. Like a lot of people in Silicon Valley, a lot of power users preferred DuckDuckGo to Google. But DuckDuckGo never got to the scale that Google did just because of distribution. And so, you know, he's clearly looking at Bloomberg. There's rumors that he's talking to Apple. It's interesting to see where that goes.
Starting point is 03:45:44 But he's cooking. Anyway, Pierre Richelson from cal.com says, I think organizing LAN parties for 30 plus year olds could unironically be a banger. Warcraft III, Battlefield 1942, I played that game, great. Age of Empires, Dota, what else? I don't know why you gotta have 30 year old plus. Bring the Teal Fellows, bring the-
Starting point is 03:46:02 They didn't really play those games, John. You're dating yourself. Yeah, but they can pick it up. I mean, a lot of these games. But it's about the nostalgia. Yeah, I went to a hackathon last year, put on by a venture capital firm. It was fun.
Starting point is 03:46:15 Had some Halo. Halo 3 was the popular one. But the new Halo, if you install it, they just give you all the previous Halos. You can just play any of them in like the call in like one desk I guess that's very just like yeah by the current one It's like sass now you buy the current one you get you get all the previous all the previous ones Should we close with?
Starting point is 03:46:35 Cow tech startup. Yeah, this was exciting good on our for rock Confirmed one month early one month early cow tech startup becomes New Zealand's latest Unicorn in 100 million dollar fundraising rare New Zealand unicorn. I said this was very bullish For beef for cows for cows. It's bullish Knee slapper knees love for knee slapper. Well, we could just keep going all day long here But if you get a text message from Mark Zuckerberg or an email do not assume that it's fake Knee slapper. Knee slapper. Well, we could just keep going all day long here, John. If you get a text message from Mark Zuckerberg or an email, do not assume that it's fake. He has taken over recruitment for the super intelligence lab and is reaching out to hundreds
Starting point is 03:47:13 of prospects personally. If you respond, this next step is an invitation to dinner. He's in founder mode. He's grinding. He's putting together the Avengers. He's doing the meme. It's coming together nicely. He will win. I'm liking it so far. he's grinding. He's putting together the Avengers. It's coming together nicely.
Starting point is 03:47:25 I'm liking it. I'm liking it so far. It's fun. Anyway, I think that's enough for today. Thank you for watching. Leave us five stars in Apple Podcasts and Spotify and we will see you tomorrow. We love you.
Starting point is 03:47:37 Have a great day. Have a great evening. Bye. Cheers.

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