TBPN Live - Live @ NYSE, Netflix to Acquire Warner Bros. | Keith Rabois, Emily Sundberg, Adam Faze

Episode Date: December 5, 2025

(00:43) - Netflix to Acquire Warner Bros. (21:04) - 𝕏 Timeline Reactions (40:44) - Keith Rabois is a veteran Silicon Valley operator and investor, known for senior roles at PayPal, Linke...dIn, and Square, and as a general partner at top venture firms including Khosla Ventures and Founders Fund. He’s recognized for his sharp strategic instincts, contrarian takes on markets and company building, and for backing category-defining startups across fintech, real estate, and AI. (01:23:27) - Lynn Martin, the 68th president of the New York Stock Exchange and chair of Fixed Income & Data Services at Intercontinental Exchange, discusses the NYSE's annual tree lighting ceremony, highlighting the participation of celebrities, mascots, and charitable organizations, and emphasizes the event's role in fostering community engagement and supporting listed companies. She also touches on the significance of ETFs, noting their impact on financial markets by providing liquidity and transparency, and anticipates a busy start to 2026 for IPOs, acknowledging potential market volatility due to upcoming midterm elections. (01:36:50) - Emily Sundberg is a New York–based writer and director, best known for her daily business newsletter, "Feed Me," which has grown into a seven-figure Substack enterprise with over 150,000 readers. In the conversation, she discusses the expansion of "Feed Me" into podcasting with the launch of "Expense Account," hosted by resident food critic J Lee, and her plans to extend coverage to California, acknowledging the significant portion of her readership based there. Additionally, Sundberg reflects on the competitive landscape between platforms like Substack and Patreon, emphasizing the importance of nurturing new talent rather than poaching existing creators. (02:03:00) - Adam Faze is a 28-year-old American film producer and entrepreneur, known for co-founding the production company Must Be Nice and serving as studio chief at FazeWorld. In the conversation, he discusses the merger between Warner Brothers and Netflix, expressing support for the consolidation as a strategic move to compete with tech giants like Meta, Google, and TikTok. Faze emphasizes that combining Warner Brothers' rich intellectual property with Netflix's powerful distribution network positions the entertainment industry to better capture audience attention in a rapidly evolving digital landscape. TBPN.com is made possible by: Ramp - https://ramp.comFigma - https://figma.comVanta - https://vanta.comLinear - https://linear.appEight Sleep - https://eightsleep.com/tbpnWander - https://wander.com/tbpnPublic - https://public.comAdQuick - https://adquick.comBezel - https://getbezel.com Numeral - https://www.numeralhq.comAttio - https://attio.com/tbpnFin - https://fin.ai/tbpnGraphite - https://graphite.devRestream - https://restream.ioProfound - https://tryprofound.comJulius AI - https://julius.aiturbopuffer - https://turbopuffer.comPolymarket - https://polymarket.com/fal - https://fal.aiPrivy - https://www.privy.ioCognition - https://cognition.aiGemini - https://gemini.google.comFollow TBPN: https://TBPN.comhttps://x.com/tbpnhttps://open.spotify.com/show/2L6WMqY3GUPCGBD0dX6p00?si=674252d53acf4231https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/technology-brothers/id1772360235https://www.youtube.com/@TBPNLive

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 You're watching TVPN. Today's Friday, December 5th, 2025. We are live again from the New York Stock Exchange. Thank you for the boats found jockey. It's good to be back. This is the real fortress of finance, the capital of capital. The Temple of Technology, it's back in Hollywood. We'll be there on Monday. But we have a great show for you today, folks. We have Keith Rubei joining us in person. We have Lynn Martin, president of the New York Stock Exchange. We have Emily Sunberg. And we have one more. Adam Faze, again. It's had some hot takes on the WB. Which is the top story today, other than, of course, RAM, but time is money, say both. These use corporate cards, bill payments, accounting and a whole lot more all in one place. Let me give you some facts about Netflix. They're going to be bought by, or they're going to buy Warner Brothers and HBO Max
Starting point is 00:00:49 for an $82.7 billion deal. The acquisition is expected to close following Warner Brothers Discovery spinoff of Discovery Global TV Networks Division in Q3, 2026. There's a bunch of fun, interesting things hitting the timeline. Obviously, this is a tech story because of Netflix. It's also a media story and, you know, a public market story as well. And it is a story that we will be talking about for quite a while because although this has gotten announced in the last 24 hours, it's very likely that this is going to be a very long,
Starting point is 00:01:23 drawn-out process before it actually gets regulatory approval. Yeah. Well, let me read through variety that had a great summary of the deal. But first, let me tell you about graphite.dev. Code review for the age of AI. Graphite helps teams on GitHub ship higher quality software faster. So it's official in a move that will dramatically reshape the entertainment business. Netflix and Warner Brothers or WB. Don't call it Warner Bros. Although we want to. The insiders, they call it Warner Brothers or WB. Warner Bros. Discovery announced an agreement Friday under which Netflix will acquire Warner Brothers, including its film and TV studios, HBO Max, and HBO. The deal has a total enterprise value, including debt of $82.7 billion, with an equity value of $72 billion, the company said. The announcement of Netflix's deal to buy the Warner Brothers streaming and studio business came after a week's long bidding war that pitted the streaming giant against David Ellison's Paramount Skydance and Comcast. news broke Thursday evening that Netflix had entered into exclusive negotiations with WBD on a deal for Warner Brothers and HBO Max. A quote from Netflix co-CEOO Ted Sarandos, he said, I know some of you are surprised we're making this acquisition. I think people were surprised because didn't Netflix's stock trade down on this news?
Starting point is 00:02:46 People down. Some people are. Some people are excited about it. Yeah. Some people are, plenty of people are not excited about it for various reasons. And some people don't think it'll get approved. Other people think this is, you know, it's quite an extension. WB obviously does theatrical releases.
Starting point is 00:03:05 They have a movie theater business. It's definitely will be quite an extension to Netflix's core business today. Yeah, Netflix for reference, $425 billion company down 2.6% today. So not falling off a cliff or anything, but certainly people taking note of this. There's also a number of op-eds about this already out on the timeline. We can go through some of those. But first, let me tell you about Vanta, bodymate compliance and security,
Starting point is 00:03:33 AI that powers everything from evidence collection and continuous monitoring to security reviews. So Netflix expects it, said it expects to, quote, maintain Warner Brothers. He said, the company has historically been more of a builder than a buyer. And so Netflix is trying to, like, sort of reassure both fans, employees, even people who might just see Warner Brothers Discovery
Starting point is 00:04:00 is like a fantastic asset that doesn't need to be like stripped for parts. He's trying to push back against a potential narrative that Netflix will will be very ruthless in cost cutting and lose some of that, you know, what people think may WB amazing art. So he said, Netflix expects to maintain Warner Brothers current operations and build on its strengths, including theatrical releases for films. I know this doesn't matter to you because you never go to the theater and you never see it.
Starting point is 00:04:29 Hey, we went and saw Dune. That was like two years ago. But we got a, we got a, when we did that, it was a lot of fun. We got a bunch of the guys together. We said, we're going to make the monthly thing. Yeah, we were close. At the start of the year, we were doing that.
Starting point is 00:04:42 We were doing that. We were getting everyone together just like guys night out, kind of, but to the movie theater. Because we were like, okay, what do you do if you're a guy and you have a bunch of guy friends and you want to go meet up
Starting point is 00:04:54 but you don't really like drinking you don't know anything about sports like what can you do on a Tuesday night suit up and head to your local movie theater head to the local movie theater and fortunately it feels like Netflix must have heard what we said they probably react this seems like a direct reaction to us
Starting point is 00:05:10 potentially potentially we do need to go back to the theater though because we have not been supporting them nearly enough recently but it is a good time and I do think it is important to set this tone. Like, I mean, the reality is that like, like, theaters are going to change. They are, like, there's a question of like, you know, fast takeoff in AI, fast takeoff in streaming. Like, it's been 20 years since you've been able to watch things on the internet. So you've been able to watch
Starting point is 00:05:38 home box office was a way to watch a movie at home. In some ways, the ability to put a TV in someone's house was the beginning of the end for the theater. Because they were immediately substitutes, although the difference was massive screen versus tiny CRT. And then it was like, okay, a 42-inch TV, flat screen. Now that might cost a couple grand, you know, 10 years ago. Now I was at, I was somewhere, I think I was at Target. And I saw a 42-inch TV, I think I advertised for like 75 bucks or something. It's like suspiciously cheap.
Starting point is 00:06:12 It was so cheap. It's like a rotisserie chicken. It's just trying to get you on the door. I mean, in college for me, like the 42-inch TV, was the gold standard. Yeah. We weren't in the era of the 65, the 75, the 85, like the big TVs hadn't
Starting point is 00:06:25 arrived, but the 42-inch TV was good. It was like you're the king of the castle. Yeah, you were the king of the castle. You had a 42-inch, and it was like a serious expense. It was a couple grand. Now they're practically giving them away. And so, of course, that's going to be a competitive pressure, but also, it's not going to destroy
Starting point is 00:06:38 the theater immediately, but it's going to have an erosion effect over decades, and that's exactly what's happening. But it's nice that Netflix is not declaring this the end of the theater. They're going to continue to invest and support. And I think this will, you know, certainly, you know, encourage everyone to continue supporting Warner Brothers and Discovery and Netflix. So Netflix signal they would keep HBO Max as a discrete service, while it also touted the addition of
Starting point is 00:07:03 HBO and HBO Max content to its lineup. And so we're going to add the deep film and TV libraries and HBO to an HBO Mac programming. Netflix members will have even more high-quality tires. Will it be called Netflix Max? You need to be Netflix maxing. Maybe that's... Wait, is that why they did HBO Max? Because they wanted it to be like, oh, if you're HBO maxing, you get HBO back. Then it was HBO max, then it was Max, then it was back to HBO.
Starting point is 00:07:30 People give them so much, they talk so much trash about HBO with the rebrand chaos. But Max is a great term as opposed to, because they could have done HBO Plus. No, I mean, the critique there was HBO has built up such an incredible brand. Yes, they never should have gone purely max. And credit to Scott Gowel. I remember he went so hard on them for dropping HBO. Oh, that's crazy. You've spent, like, you've spent decades building up this incredible brand,
Starting point is 00:07:56 and you're just like, see ya, we'll just be called Max. They spent, like, two years HBO Maxing. Well, they spent two decades HBO Maxxing, and then they just were Max Max. And then they just went Max Maxxing, and that was the end to the beginning of the end. But the article goes on. This allows Netflix to optimize plans for consumers
Starting point is 00:08:18 enhancing viewing options and expanding access to content. Netflix says it expects to see $2 to $3 billion in cost savings annually by the third year after the Warner Brothers Discovery deal closes. Let's see. The company expects the transaction to be accretive to earnings per share by year two. The cash and stock transaction was valued at $27 per share and the timeline is going back and forth on this. Okay, Leah, let's get into some takes. So the counter side of this, the information actually had a pretty scathing, a scathing kind of analysis. Before you read that, I'm going to tell you about public.com investing for those that take it seriously.
Starting point is 00:09:00 We have multi-asset investing. They're trusted by millions. So I read through this earlier. This is from Martin Pears. He says Netflix's Warner purchase is an $82.7 billion. A blunder. He's calling it a blunderer. He says it will likely, announced Friday morning will likely prove a stupendous error by a management team that until now has rarely put a wrong foot.
Starting point is 00:09:21 Netflix paying a huge price, 27 and a half times next year's expected earnings well above prevailing multiples for film and TV companies for businesses that likely won't help it add many subscribers, right? Like Netflix has like saturation a lot of people today. So from a consumer standpoint, if you subscribe to Netflix and HBO Max, you're going to be like, cool, I can churn off of one of these. services and just switch over to here. The question is, well, then Netflix, will they be incentivized to just keep pushing the price of the subscription? They're adding more content, more IP. And so I would expect them to do that. Martin continues, moreover the deal is likely to face severe regulatory obstacles. Again, so Netflix is not exactly Trump-aligned, right? They, the Netflix did the deal with the Obamas. And so I think that in a world where Netflix was
Starting point is 00:10:13 going to, sorry, WB is going to Paramount, I could see that much more likely to get through, whereas this is going to make sure the Netflix team is going to be spending at least the next year, I would assume, working on this. And then since we started... Were you mean regulatory approval? Yeah, just trying to get this across the line. Yeah, yeah. I mean, it feels like it's so hard to make the case that this creates some sort of monopoly because Disney owns it's like yes okay now Netflix has Swigman and they also have Batman but Jason Kalar who's a former Warner Media CEO says if I were tasked with doing so I could not think of a more effective way to reduce competition in Hollywood than selling WBD to Netflix
Starting point is 00:10:58 what about selling it to Disney you literally have Batman Superman and all the Marvel characters you have Spider-Man and Star Wars that feels like that would be less competitive competitive than having, right now, from my perspective, you have Batman and Superman kind of off on an island. They haven't really been able to get that engine going to the same degree as Marvel, the Avengers, Thanos, Iron Man. Somebody named Ben Weiss says, disagree. Hollywood is competing with Silicon Valley, Apple, Amazon, Google Meta, preserving some notion of competition in-in-between Legacy Hollywood. Risk winning a battle and losing a war. The old media companies need to more of the right type of scale. This does it for.
Starting point is 00:11:39 For WB, Jason says, when I use that phrase competition in Hollywood, I'm referring to having a sufficient number of vibrant and robust entities that canon will aggressively compete against each other to produce and distribute films, series, live events, and more for decades to come. I'm not focused on the legacy of it all. Yeah, I would still say this is like number two. But it, I mean, it might be high. But just in terms of like Hollywood filmmaking, these feel like, extremely. extremely competitive areas. There are so many different, there are so many different streaming services
Starting point is 00:12:17 and bundles that you can piece together. There are folks who are like, yeah, you know what, I order from Amazon, so I have Amazon Prime. That's where I watch everything. There are still people that just go to Apple, you know, Apple TV and just buy a movie. You know, you can still just do that. You can be off in the Netflix ecosystem. You can be in the Hulu ecosystem. Like there, it doesn't feel like there's a crazy lack of competition in media right now. So I don't know. I would be somewhat surprised if this doesn't go through, but I mean, you never know. I don't know.
Starting point is 00:12:51 I think Netflix, again, we were before this, we were having lunch with cable exec. And he was kind of bringing up how Netflix had gotten caught up a little bit in kind of of some of the woke stuff. Sure. And again, I just think in Trump America, it just feels far more likely that the Alessons could get a deal done. And they're notoriously absolute dogs in Washington. Yeah, there's a rumor that they're going to go, that they're going to try it out bid. Yeah, so right now, this is Chris Gasperine over at Fox, says, Scoop, as reported, Paramount and Skydance is now looking to launch a hostile bid for WBD because it feels it's $30.
Starting point is 00:13:36 a share all cash offer is actually higher than what Netflix offered in terms of cash stock and the value of the spinoff of the cable business. So this is still developing. But yeah, anyways, Trump fan had some interesting backstory. He says, wild outcome, especially after these three wild what-ifs before Netflix IPOed in 2002. Before Netflix IPOed in 2002, apparently Bezos offered $12 million to buy it. Can you imagine if Netflix had sold for $12 billion? Well, they also tried to sell the Blockbuster during the... So Blockbuster had a chance to buy it for $50 million
Starting point is 00:14:10 and they laughed it off. But then it was just a DVD delivery service and they were like, we can build this, we have DVDs, we have all the infrastructure, we can just take it from the stores, like we don't need to do this, but what they didn't realize was that actually building technology, actually building a real tech like streaming
Starting point is 00:14:27 service and scaling that platform. I mean, Netflix has some of the greatest like just infrastructure engines. And even the early recommendation engines. I remember my dad being like, yeah, Netflix just recommended it knows what I like and it just said, it sent me this. They said, you're going to enjoy this. Yeah, yeah, yeah. And then Bernard Arnault saved it with a $30 million check.
Starting point is 00:14:47 Do you know this? Netflix and Bernard Arnaud? Over the top. I love it. I love it. I was thinking about the actual value of putting these things together because like you're, you were making the point that putting Netflix and Warner Brothers together, it doesn't, like, everyone's. already subscribed to Netflix. I don't know. I don't know if that's true. If the trends continue. Like, Netflix has a fair amount of, like, they have their squid games. They have some big,
Starting point is 00:15:18 they have some big IP. But if you just think about, like, the drumbeat of HBO, come back every season. Oh, you're not watching Game of Thrones. You're out of the loop. Oh, you're not watching Succession. You're out of the loop. Like, the conversation driving shows, I feel like are on HBO much more consistently than Netflix. And in fact, I don't even know if I'm logged into Netflix on my phone right now. I know I'm still paying, but I really don't watch it very much. And I think that the reason is because I just haven't had, oh, you're missing out a homo shows. As somebody, so you're a true enthusiast.
Starting point is 00:15:55 For me, as someone who's not an enthusiast, I'll go to prime because I'm like, I rarely watch movies. If I'm going to watch a movie, I want to just, I'm happy to just buy. I'm not like going like. I do the same thing. Let me get the free option on Netflix. I'm like, I will just buy the thing that I want to fill this 90 minutes with. Yes. Anyway, so the deal doesn't include WDD's cable channels such as CNN, TNT, TBS, and Discovery, which are being a spun off. Okay. And we don't know where that will land yet or people speculate. Even if Netflix gets regulatory approval, it will have to take on 50 billion in debt to complete the deal and we'll spend a couple of years cutting costs to reduce that debt. Netflix does do around $9 or $10 billion of free cash flow.
Starting point is 00:16:38 Yeah. And so they can certainly service the debt. Yep. But anyways, in the first nine months of this year, WBD's studio and streaming operations generated $2.3 billion in EBDA. Next year, Netflix executives said they expected the Warner business to generate $3 billion in EBDA. That's a price of 27.5 times EBDA after taking into account cost savings of $2.5 billion they expect to make. Netflix says the deal value represents a multiple of 14.3 times. WBD's traditional rivals, Disney, and Paramount Skydance are each trading around 11 times.
Starting point is 00:17:17 Anyways, we can kind of skip over this. Kramer said so out of the box, Netflix as the world's biggest content creator by far, exciting, but not necessarily in a good way for shareholders. I think that's so funny. Let me tell you about fin.com. AI, the number one AI agent for customer service, automate the most complex customer service queries on every channel. Adam Faze, who's coming out on the show in just an hour or two. He says, I don't think people realize the licensing business Netflix is about to have if this deal goes through. Warner Brothers animated IP library alone would bring in billions in new merchandising
Starting point is 00:17:52 revenue coupled with new versions of these iconic shows on the platform. Game over. And he lists some of these out, and one of them, I think is hilarious, is Foghorn Leghorn. They own Looney Tunes. So they have Bugs Bunny, Daffy Duck, Porky Pig, Sylvester, Roadrunner, Wiley Coyote. These are, yeah, these are, these are time-honored, iconic characters. I just think it's funny because very clearly, there are a series of bankers out there that have a spreadsheet, and somewhere they have a row, and on that row is Foghorn Leghorn, and attached to Foghorn Leghorn, is the value of the intellectual property of Foghorn Leghorn, who's like a large rooster, who talks with a funny accent.
Starting point is 00:18:35 And I just imagine that they're out there saying, like, yeah, foghorn, leghorn, that's like $30 million. That's a $30 million business. Like, okay, Yosemite Sam, that's a $50 million. Porky Pig? Borgie Pig,'s $80 million. Let's view some of the parts. I really hope that someone on Wall Street, some investment banker.
Starting point is 00:18:52 It's actually Adam Ant is for being really undervalued. Exactly. We actually think this is a $2 billion property. Oh, Dick Dastor. You think Dick Dastardly is worth $8 million in intellectual property value? Yeah, right. What about snagglepuss? I don't know.
Starting point is 00:19:06 I thought you were making some of these. No, this is part of the Hannah Barbera. Quick draw McGraw. Johnny Quest, Space Ghost, the Hercules. Hercules sounds like some crazy, crazy anon meme. Boo-boo. Herkiloid seems like someone with a Roman statue avatar. Okay, so Polly Market has who will acquire WB at E.
Starting point is 00:19:27 86% today. Paramount is still only sitting at 6%. 6%. So the company behind? Amazon is still up there. Yes. Anyways. Well, let me tell you about Adio, the AI Native CRM,
Starting point is 00:19:44 Adio builds, scales, and grows your company to the next level. The DC comic books, I feel like there's the, like, I feel like Netflix could do something cool here. I feel like Batman, Joker, Harley Quinn, Superman, Wonder Woman, Aquaman. The Flash. Like, these are iconic characters. These are Halloween costume characters. They are still really known.
Starting point is 00:20:06 But the last round of DC, it just didn't break through in the way the Marvel series did. And Marvel broke through in such a massive way. It didn't have the cachet of the Dark Night and the Nolan films. But is there any way that they can get Nolan back in the seat to actually do a full arc or something? I don't know. I would just hope that I just grew up with the with the Nolan era of DC and I would have loved him to go on and do more of that with Superman with you know the whole crew everyone coming together and instead they got just really over the top of the CGI and the slow mo and those in the the the the the Zach Snyder era and I think a lot of people sort of got got tired of it and I'm looking forward to whatever they wind up doing next. Well, they have metal eclipse. That's a great one. I like robot chicken, Aquitine Hunger Force.
Starting point is 00:21:00 They got a ton of stuff. So it'll be interesting to keep following it. Anyway, you want to go to Possum? Oh, what's Mike Mirrofoor saying? Mike Mirafloor says we already have nano-banana Pro TVC commercials with decent paid media budgets behind them. Everything is moving so, so quickly. Okay. So James Harden is in an ad for my prize.
Starting point is 00:21:21 I don't know what my prize is. said this is the best commercial he's ever been in and he never stepped foot on the set let me show you how to crack the code on celeb deepfakes for this my prize ad we did with james hardin so this is a guy named billy woodwork yeah um who's been doing so they're actually putting behind this uh this ad on tv because it looks like a tv commercial but this also could just be a viral marketing campaign on well my prize is a premium online casino games wow Well, James Harden is getting in on the gambling trade. Surprise he doesn't have an official prediction market partner yet.
Starting point is 00:22:02 In other news, this almost seems like it could be fake. Before you share this news, let me tell you about Restream. One live stream, 30-plus destinations. If you want to multistream, go to Restream.com. So, what is it? There is news out of the truth social? I don't know if this is real, because not a single, there's a very viral post right now that says breaking. President Trump set to announce a new AI platform called TruthA.I.
Starting point is 00:22:32 There's not a single legacy media institution has reported on this that I've found. So I would, given that this is a story that they'd be very excited to cover, I would be wary that it's real yet. But that's not stopping J. Bull, T.A.R. from saying, and you guys think Google won the AI race, talking about how Trump is set to unveil the new AI platform, Truth AI. I wonder if Truth Social pops at all today off of... True Social.
Starting point is 00:23:08 No, it's down. Down 3%. They're like he's splitting. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Like a focusing. Yeah, you should be focused. You have to lock it on one thing. If you're a social media entrepreneur,
Starting point is 00:23:18 I mean, you know, it's Mark Zuckerberg getting dinged He's walking some of the Metaverse stuff back. You know, maybe the true social team's getting dinged for heading over to AI land instead of just doing a partnership. You know what the crazy thing is? I keep laughing about this fact that like
Starting point is 00:23:35 it has got to be so hard to justify an in-house AI foundation model training run now if you're a big platform when the rebuttal has to be okay, so you're saying that you need to do something special, you need to do something creative, you need to do some weird deal with some other people put something together, but Apple can just work with Google.
Starting point is 00:23:55 Yeah. It's enough for Apple to work with Google. Apple works to just buy tokens from Gemini from Google, but you, your business is more special than Apple. I think Apple is in the position where they're like, we don't need to prove to, like, I feel like an analyst can look at Apple and say, like, they will have leverage in AI, at least today. Yeah, yeah, yeah, this is a tough thing. Where there's other businesses that feel like, okay, we need an AI strategy.
Starting point is 00:24:22 it's not enough to just announce a partnership with a lap. Yes, yes, yes. We need to, like, actually own the weights. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, we should actually get into some of the Apple departures, because we talked about this briefly, but the Wall Street Journalist saying that Apple departures point to challenges for iPhone's dominance,
Starting point is 00:24:42 and I think it's too early to call the iPhone challenged. I feel like the iPhone's dominance has not been challenged yet. Maybe that is coming, You know, there have been several top lieutenants who have left in the past 12 months and dozens of others have defected to rival. So there are some facts that are important to consider and walk through here. So the Wall Street Journal is summarizing it this way. They say Apple is facing a wave of executive departures as the company continues a period of transition, not only among its leadership, but if rivals have their way for its businesses as well. on Thursday, the company announced that his general counsel and head of policy will both retire
Starting point is 00:25:23 next year. On Wednesday, a top designer left from meta platforms. On Monday, Apple said its head of artificial intelligence strategy would retire. Its chief operating officer announced its retirement in July, and the CFO has transitioned into a new role. So lots of, you know, are the heads rolling or are these retirements? There's a lot of, like, you know, sort of management. It feels like Apple's just, like, not the place to let the drama kind of come to them.
Starting point is 00:25:53 They're like, look, if you, even if you got poached, maybe we just want to leave you retire. Well, it was notable because Apple, Apple came out with an announcement after the guy left for META and said, we're basically tried to make it sound like it was, it was, like, they were positioning it was, like, mutual, like, this was the right time for them to go on. And I'll let anyone else kind of, like, read into whether or not it was really, DHH was getting over 37 signals which says Apple was overdue for a full executive reset just need to add Cook to the list and for a replacement
Starting point is 00:26:24 Forstall is only 56 time for a comeback Oh that would be very interesting Yeah there's a lot of Forstall fans out there Who think that he didn't get it right Or he didn't get the opportunity he deserved Cook can't catch a break He's like I still think Cook's done a lot of good stuff I'm still bullish on Cook
Starting point is 00:26:41 But I don't know Let's see. It says the executive departures underscore a changing of the guard underway at Apple. Even as chief executive officer, Tim Cook, himself shows no sign of stepping down, even though everyone is leaking a variety of rumors to the contrary. Cook and his new lieutenants face a critical test preparing Apple for the AI era and a wave of new competitive devices that result. We haven't seen the wave of new competitive devices. just yet. I mean, Apple, if you, there's another way to tell the story, which is like Apple
Starting point is 00:27:18 defeated the rabbit R1. They defeated the friend attack. They defeated, you know, like, what was the other one that was the humane pin? Oh, they're singing the happy birthday. They're singing a happy birthday. It's someone's birthday. It's one of the guys down on the trading floor. Oh, he's got a whole cake out there. That's great. You got it. Very sweet. Why don't you tell us about your phone, John? Turbo author. Server in full-tax search. Turbo Puffer. Built from first principles on object storage.
Starting point is 00:27:49 Fast. 10X, cheaper and extremely scalable. We will. That was really funny yesterday, having Jim Kramer referenced the Simon and the Turbo Puffer team. That was a crazy crossover. That was a deep, that was a deep cut, Kramer. Yeah, that was a deep cut.
Starting point is 00:28:06 We have some Jacob Rintamaki tagged us in a post here. SpaceX tells investors it's aiming for a late 2020. 86 IPO. Katie Roof over at the information has the scoop. Apparently, Elon Musk, SpaceX has told investors and financial institutions that it is aiming for an IPO in the second half of next year. The talk comes as SpaceX considers holding a sale of shares held by investors and employees that would value the company at $800 billion. Quite the markup, double its valuation in a sale this summer and what would make it the most valuable private company, he's got to be the most valuable private company. It probably candidly makes him sick that Open AI has briefly eclipsed.
Starting point is 00:28:51 The company is considering a public listing of the entire company, including Starlink, which makes sense. I think Starlink is a huge part of obviously the value of the business, and I just don't think it goes out anywhere near 800 without it, and they're very interlinked. That is a change, though, from a few years ago when Musk said he expected SpaceX. would eventually spin-off Starlink and take it public, but executives have shelved the idea of a Starlink spin-off as its rocket business has improved. Apparently, the Wall Street Journal reported on the share sale at 800.
Starting point is 00:29:29 So anyways, in other news, Mark Benioff is saying that he might rename the company Agent Force. Trace Cohen says, just force. Why not just force? Oh, force. Well, isn't there a Force India, the F-1 team from a couple years ago? B-YT, W-W-T, Force India? That was
Starting point is 00:29:51 like a team. I think they struggled. I've got to find that. What was Force India? Was that? The Force India. Benioff is on a tear. His pin tweet right now. LLMs are the new disc drives.
Starting point is 00:30:04 Commodity infrastructure, you hot swap for whoever's cheapest and best. The fantasy that the model is a moat just expired. Hmm. People are really going wild. They're going off down here. Do you think he does it? Is there a prediction market yet up for renaming of Salesforce?
Starting point is 00:30:23 I think Salesforce is such a strong name, even if they do more than sales at this point. It's transcended. The company has definitely transcended what they do. I think people know. Why not just sales? I like just sales. Just be sales, Inc. I don't think you can be.
Starting point is 00:30:43 I think that's too generic. I don't know. Not if you're... I mean, he would have to update the ticker to. The ticker is the bigger one. Yeah. Because everyone wants to be like CRMs are dead. You're going to just be able to just generate a CRM on the fly.
Starting point is 00:30:59 Bucco Capital says, F it, nothing else is working. Go for it, brother. A name change? Sometimes we'll fix you. Just let it run. Ethan Ding was coming in with some commentary. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:31:13 He said yesterday it should be extremely alarming to Salesforce investors that no execate Salesforce is telling him that's not a lot of tokens. Of course, they talked about January, $3.2 trillion. Token sounds like a big number. Ethan says for anyone who doesn't understand, cursor processes more tokens than Salesforce all-time figure every six days. Salesforce has 20 million users. I mean, Credit cursor has a similar amount of users, I think.
Starting point is 00:31:41 Sure. Assuming same average token count per active agent force user count is 40 to 60,000 truly active users, a.k.a. 0.2 to 0.3% adoption three years after launch. Yeah, I wonder. I wonder. Like all tokens are not created equal. Like you can, you can generate so many, so many tokens if you're doing these like deep research reports and like if you had agent force going around and basically running a deep research report on every contact in every CRM under like under every conversation every time you get a new email from a lead right the the the token generation could be incredibly high and also deliver very little value
Starting point is 00:32:22 on the flip side uh you could have a really fine-tuned model that is you know laser focused more of a scalpel yeah and uh you can be getting a lot of value out of those tokens that you are generating so i don't i don't really know on the on the app layer debate our CRMs cooked uh there's The post here from Kalin, he says, just met a company that vibe-coded an entire CRM to avoid paying for HubSpot over the last year. It's now become a burden to maintain and missing key functionality, third-party interoperability as they scale. They're now migrating to HubSpot app layer is fine. We experienced this. I think it's so easy to make a V-1.
Starting point is 00:33:00 Totally. You can make a V-1 in a day. And so you assume like, okay, you can spend like another few days really building out like more of a feature set. And the reality is, like, the thing that you generate in one day could take 10, at least for now, hours and hours and hours every week just to, like, maintain it and make, like, incremental improvements. Yeah. Let me tell you about linear. Linear is a purpose-built tool. Meet the system for modern software development.
Starting point is 00:33:25 Linear streamlines work across the entire development cycle from roadmap to release. I actually, I didn't vibe code a CRM, but back in college, I built a CRM inside of Microsoft Excel. and so I... Yeah, that's like the classic that's the real competitor for a startup. Yeah. It was like,
Starting point is 00:33:43 okay, you could go from sheets or Excel to maybe an air table slightly more robust than to an adio or a hub spot or and then eventually get over to Salesforce.
Starting point is 00:33:55 Yeah, yeah, yeah. Also, I mean, yeah, the question about like the value of the platform and the value of the app layer, I mean, we were talking about this with Shopify folks. Like there are so many companies.
Starting point is 00:34:07 I've worked at these companies. I've run these companies where we said like, no, no, no, no. Our use case is special. No one's going to build an e-commerce site exactly the way we want to build it. And so we wind up building an entire e-commerce stack, custom. And then a couple of years later, Shopify just catches up.
Starting point is 00:34:25 And then boom, you're back on Shopify. And that just happened time and time again. I lived it at Soiland. It was a wild, wild time. This is some wild news. Logan Paul, Jake Paul, and Jeff Wu are starting an eight-week. accelerator it's a 25k safe followed by a $100,000 price round for a total of 7% equity a lot of
Starting point is 00:34:46 people are confused about doing it as a price round for 100k a founder could easily end up spending like 30 grand you know like depending on who their lawyer is like actually it's like a 100k investment and then you have like let's assume you're like super efficient and it's like 10 grand it's like yeah it's kind of annoying and then yeah it's it's it's annoying um that said i think there's a lot of interesting businesses that could go through this that would really benefit from working with jake and and logan and jeff right so interesting that it's 25 case safe and then a hundred thousand dollar price around like why not just 125 for 7% like on a on a on a safe with a cap that insures big at 7% no matter what like uh that feel
Starting point is 00:35:32 i would love to talk to them i think hopefully we're going to be able to get jeff lu on the show at some point we can ask him about how he is, you know, thinking about that particular term. I know a lot of people here are saying like, oh, 7% for 125K, that's low. And that's certainly lower than YC. YC, you come in with like, I think, a $10 million valuation. This is more like a $1 million valuation. But, you know, if you're an earlier in your career, you're not ready to go to a different higher valuation, like this could still be a good deal. Or you do need a lot of capital for your business. But you do need a lot of attention. Like, I guess. You could see some consumer brands getting started this way?
Starting point is 00:36:08 Well, I mean, I just remember, like, YC was my North Star for, like, what I wanted to get into with my first business. But, like, I got denied the first time I applied. And I was like, if you gave me $5,000 for 10% of the business, like, I would take it because I want to work on my thing and I want to keep going. And, like, yes, at some point it can be predatory. But, like, with some of the first ideas that I was coming up with, like, I definitely didn't deserve $125K for 7% because they were, like, slop companies that were, like, very unbelievable. likely to succeed. So I don't know. There's something interesting. I do wonder if they will position this as, okay, you're going to be able to accelerate on the go-to-market side. You're going to be able to accelerate on the creator side, creator partnerships. This will be,
Starting point is 00:36:53 there's a whole bunch of different ways. It could be something where you are, you're going through this accelerator because you get to ask Logan and Jake about their media creation, and their creator work, and then you're launching your company, more likely to go viral because these guys really understand virality. On the other side, it could be you're coming in and you're taking a crack and building something that might wind up being more like an incubation for them because I'm sure that they want to launch a bunch of products.
Starting point is 00:37:20 This is a way to just kind of take swings and get to get close to working with people. And then if something that lines up, they could say, hey, we actually want to do like a 50-50 deal, and this is going to be like Logan and Jake as co-founders of the next thing that they're working on together. And we're going to really, really push this for you.
Starting point is 00:37:35 We'll be your marketing arm. So it'll be interesting to see where these companies go. Jeff and Jake, I think, are coming on the show in the next couple weeks before the end of the year. So we will be able to ask them more about that. Before we move on, let me tell you about profound. Get your brand mentioned in chat, GPT, and more. Reach millions of consumers who use AI to discover new products and brands. Aaron has a good post here.
Starting point is 00:37:58 What Aaron said? The remaining Apple leadership team. Who is this? Travis Scott, Tim Cook, and Mr. Beast. Mr. Beast, did say that he's going to film on iPhones. I'm not sure what the Travis Scott connection is. Has he done a partnership with Apple in one way? No, there are still plenty of folks. Eddie Q is still there. Apple leadership team is still stacked. Don't you worry. Don't you worry. There are still people here. And we have our first guest in the restream waiting room, getting geared up. physical restream waiting room.
Starting point is 00:38:33 They put the moon on the sphere. They put cheese on the sphere. The sphere Vegas says, we're sending out the last super moon of 2025 with something special. Using NASA's public domain lunar data, our team built a true to science moon that's lighting up this Las Vegas skyline. This looks really cool. Absolutely insane.
Starting point is 00:38:53 I still think the sphere is like underrated. It's so cool. We don't know how to build beautiful things anymore. Make it make sense. sense. Yeah, we do. We do. People look at this and they think, you know, the New York Stock Exchange, how did they build this? Was this built by humans? There's a lot of debate. But the sphere really, really reinstates, yes, we can build amazing things. Yeah, humans built that. Yeah. Humans build the sphere. Have you heard about the heating,
Starting point is 00:39:19 like the level of, uh, of like engineering that went into actually driving the screens on the outside? Because so at that scale, like each pixel is not like your lap, top it's not like your phone it's like a bright light like each pixel is like this big and it's a light yeah then and so that light even if it's an LED it still produces heat and then you have so you have a whole bunch of them that are all heating each other right next to each other and then you put it in the hottest place in the world in the desert and so there's just been like a phenomenal amount of energy and i'm surprised you know people are so ready to dunk on this and be like oh it failed like if it if it shot off if it showed like a blue screen of death or like an error message that would be so viral that would
Starting point is 00:40:01 be a good campaign. That would be a great campaign. If you were marketing it and the video that you put up showed the like the Windows blue screen of death, like the fail, oh, it broke. Because then you'd go viral. If someone was like, oh, wow, like, what were they advertising? Oh, they were running an ad for TBPN and the ad was too good and it crashed the whole software or something. Because you know, the Shopify guys came on. They were like, we're doing this live. We're live streaming to the sphere. It's very cool. But if you can figure out how to crash the sphere, at least, then you look like across this fair. I think you have some viral potential. Well, let me tell you about numeral.com compliance handled. Numeral worries about sales tax and VAT compliance so you can focus on growth.
Starting point is 00:40:41 And we have our first guest of the show. We have Keith Rabeau here in New York City coming on down. Ooh, look at this. What's going on? Thank you, Keith. Good to see you. How are you doing? Thank you so much. Thanks for having us. You are the mayor of New York now. We love it here. We'll get a partnership with the New York Stock Exchange. It's a great setup. It looks great, and obviously it gives us easy access to folks like you. That's true. So thanks so much for coming on down. How have you been?
Starting point is 00:41:09 What's new in your world? Great, pretty busy. You know, you've met of her adventure is pretty busy right now. People are doing deals every day. Yes. I'm sitting left and right. Crazy valuations. Is that a green flag for you or is that a red flag?
Starting point is 00:41:20 It's hard to tell. I think a lot of people are going to lose money. Hopefully we're not included. Yep. But the valuations have an extra zero. Yes. You know, there's two. Literally, before this recent,
Starting point is 00:41:31 like sort of trend. I had never invested an entry price for like any normal company above an 86 million dollar evaluation. Yeah. And you know that whole world is completely different. Yeah. So like everything seems to have. How many deals a year are you trying to get in under under 10? Like because I would imagine you still. No, no, I know. I know. But realistically like in the last years it maybe like one one a year. Yeah. Somebody you knew well. So you can. My philosophy is bold early impactful. Bold, early, and powerful. That's the KV mantra.
Starting point is 00:42:04 I love that. So early means first institutional capital. Even today, if you're right, bold and early, that's maybe over $10 million. It used to be, you know, 500K. When I invested in Airbnb, it was 500K, 3.5 million post. DoorDast was something like 8 to 10 post. Yeah. So, you know, the world's very, very different.
Starting point is 00:42:29 Now, they're going to be epic companies. Like what is very clear is some of these companies are absolutely iconic. It will be iconic for decades. I doubt there's as many as people think. So the argument goes that, you know, we've changed the physics. And there's going to be 40, 50, 60, 70, 80, 100 billion dollar plus companies. I don't believe that stuff. It's really not on the consumer side.
Starting point is 00:42:50 I don't believe it on the consumer side. Possibly in enterprise. If you believe AI is going to transform every business everywhere, possibly. But the consumer side, consumers are busy. They have 20, there's only 24 hours in a day. Tech doesn't change that yet. And so every time someone adopts a new app and new product as a consumer, they have to substitute from their friends, from their family, from church, from basketball. And so the bar just keeps going up.
Starting point is 00:43:14 So I don't really believe there's going to be too many breakthrough consumer companies. ChatGBT, OpenAI will be one. Not really sure who else. And it just feels like we're in this era where if you do have a breakthrough, the big tech companies are in an office. offensive position. They're in wartime mode. Some of them, like meta, are, are, uh, they're founder led still. They're still in founder mode. And so you're going to have a pretty good copycat on your tail within six months of you going viral within a year. I think that is an interesting dynamic. Typically the large companies, we don't make fun of, you know, all of us are entrepreneurs.
Starting point is 00:43:48 And we don't make fun of these old sluggish, you know, large companies who tens of thousands. Now they're our friends. Well, they may not be your friends, but they are fast and they don't pay attention. Yeah. Like, they're usually sloppy and slow. Yep. Like, I remember when were doing PayPal, eBay was, like, the most incompetent organization of planet. Yes. Like, Google was literally being built underneath them. Yes. And eBay hired, like, management consultants at Bain and told them, don't worry about Google.
Starting point is 00:44:10 Like, that was the classic, like, large tech company. Yes. And admittedly, Meg was worse than most. But, like, still, now, you know, all the large tech companies, except Apple, yeah, it seemed to be paying attention. Okay. You know, Apple is behind the AI. Yeah, unpacked that a little bit because there's a lot of departures.
Starting point is 00:44:25 And, you know, you're wearing an Apple wash today. Like, you're not giving it up any time. I have my air. I love my air. Okay. So the hardware is still the best. What's the nature of the risk? Because I don't see us actually going somewhere else.
Starting point is 00:44:39 I don't see it, right? No, I think, you know, building vertically integrated products. So to do hardware well, you need hardware skills, supply chain, battery innovation. That's before you get to the software. Yeah, yeah, yeah. But does somebody figure out how to do an AI unique, unique to AI, custom device that is compelling, possibly? It depends on what time frame we're talking. Next year, unlikely.
Starting point is 00:45:01 Yeah. 10 years, I'd be willing to bat, you know, more likely than not. Yeah. So at some point, Apple will be experts. Bernard Arnault has a best quote here. He's like, in something like in 50 years, will people be drinking champagne? I think, yes. In 50 years, will we all be using iPhone?
Starting point is 00:45:18 He's like, I'm not sure. Yeah, I'll take the champagne or at least a kilo. But how is your kind of view on Google's, like, competitiveness in AI changed over time, if at all. Well, I do think we had a debate several, several years ago, is it, you know, a sustaining innovation, you know, a disruptive innovation. After ChadGBT, it's clearly more disruptive, potentially.
Starting point is 00:45:43 And I do think, though, they are paying attention. They are taking it seriously. That said, Chad GBT is still the fastest growing product, consumer product in the last, like, 15 years. Yep. And I think if Open AI plays its cards well and focuses on ChadGBT versus gets distracted as being. being a pure research lab.
Starting point is 00:46:00 So there's probably this tension there. Yeah. Resource lab, AGI, Bola, comes at sacrificing the quality of speed. Well, it's not just that, but it's a, let's launch a short firm video app. Let's automate. Let's do all the science. Let's do they, Sam, I mean, I think, uh, uh, Sam's answer to Brad, which kicked off, like a broader discussion, he was saying, we're fine.
Starting point is 00:46:22 We're going to do consumer electronics and we're going to do science. And I didn't, I think a lot of people read into that and just say like, hey, Google does, that they lose a lot of money on it. It's not exactly that profits. And those are on their bets. Louis will mince money. It's going to be clear so they can fund it. I think there's some things that Sam has to do. Hardware is probably one because the risk that somebody else puts AI together on a consumer device before he does can rip them sort of out of the future. What do you think about, how are you processing Apple with Gemini as a risk to chat GPT? I don't. I, because, because, because Like, to be clear, like, Gemini has an amazing model.
Starting point is 00:47:01 They're well behind on a, just a product, product experience standpoint. But there are quite a lot of searches that I hit ChatchipT or Gemini with that, like, a Siri integrated with Gemini, I'd be going there right away if it was like. Yeah, it depends on the kind of query you're doing or prompt you're doing. Yeah, but right now, if I hit like for a fact, that's not that far away from, that's not that far away from doing a comp, like a, like a, sure. But then there's other kinds of prompts where you didn't use to maybe even use. use Google. Like, for example, I asked ChatsypD to write a book outline for me, a book proposal. I wouldn't have thought of it.
Starting point is 00:47:34 No, you're not Google. You're actually, you're, you could probably one shot a book with a right prompt because you have so many pod. Somebody was just out of you. Al-I was actually a good. You've done like this too. And it was moderately creative.
Starting point is 00:47:47 What I expected in this blew me away was that there was a spark of ingenuity to the proposal. It wasn't just like right down the middle. Totally. I tried it on Gemini. Are you writing a book? No, but maybe one day. You see, the problem with long-form content is apparently because of token rationing, rationing, yeah.
Starting point is 00:48:04 If you try long-form content, they'll only spend a certain amount of tokens on you. Sure. So it degrade. So you'd have to write almost like a paragraph or a page at a time. Otherwise, the quality will degrade. But the outline, the proposal, was actually quite good. I did try it on Gemini. It wasn't as good.
Starting point is 00:48:18 So I think 5.1, Chow-Chipati 5.1's thinking mode, actually still has a bit of a human personality. And I don't see that when I try it. the same prompts in Gemini. So I think you could build an excellent cutting-edge human personality product if you focus. And then I think you do need to try a device just to make sure you're kind of
Starting point is 00:48:39 not blindsided by somebody else. Some of the other stuff, though, may interfere. There's only so much talent, there's always so much bandwidth. Sam only has so many hours in the day, etc. may interfere with success with Chow Chit. Chitabit should be a $4 trillion of business if you maximize it.
Starting point is 00:48:56 Yeah. Talk about hardware, it feels like we're in this weird era where everything is getting more capital intensive earlier and earlier. We're talking to John Cito yesterday. So this is a good question. I think there's some companies where that's true. Okay. Sometimes have markets, sometimes on products. I think other people are raising capital for no apparent reason. Like let's talk Harvey, illegal AI. I have a competitor investment that doesn't need a long capital. Which one are you in? It's called spell book. Oh, spellbook. Yeah. We've had the phone. They target somewhat different markets, but they're actually illegal AI. But there's no real reason.
Starting point is 00:49:27 to spend that money. Like, in other words, their compute costs can't be that high. Sure, because they should be able to pass that through as gross margin. Like, they should have good gross margins on day off.
Starting point is 00:49:34 So when I invest in AI companies, so two-thirds or three-quarters, somewhere between, of all my investments over the last 18 months are AI-based. Yes. Mostly application layer,
Starting point is 00:49:42 but not all. Yes. All the application layer ones, I expect them to have positive gross margins. Yes. Extremely positive gross margins. Yes.
Starting point is 00:49:49 I'm like, you have to build a business too. Yeah. And I don't believe in these excuses. Now, if you're building frontier models and cutting edge or you're going to do hardware, you're clearly going to spend money
Starting point is 00:49:57 or infrastructure, clearly you're going to lose money intentionally, and that's always been true in town. But if you're building an application layer, I don't buy the margin sheet upside out. There was this hilarious expose on Hacker News about AI startups that aren't actually training their own models. They're just rappers, and they were breaking down
Starting point is 00:50:13 the gross market. I was like, this is a VC's like celebration. It looks good. It looked good. Because they were like... The only thing that was bad is they were kind of making the claim that they were like more of a research or training models when they're not. not. But my takeaway was that like the rapper market is
Starting point is 00:50:30 extremely healthy in certain in certain markets. Because a workflow, like if you think about it, you have to productize things. Yeah. Like if I'm working as an investment banker or an accountant or a lawyer, it's not just the performance of the model I care about. It's like how efficient, how improve, how
Starting point is 00:50:46 does it improve my life? Yes. And that's a function of how intuitive is the UI. Yeah. How easy does make the entire job to be done, so to speak, you know, to be accomplished. So it's not just a model performance. I think when I'm looking for like an application layer CEO, I want them to really
Starting point is 00:51:02 understand what their ability for, why, and what the P&L impact to their target customers are. Like in legal, like, it's actually a complicated question. Yeah. Because of the bill power. You don't necessarily want to make your lawyers more efficient if you're on a law firm. We've been talking about this so much. We had a, I know a lawyer who switched
Starting point is 00:51:17 firms because he knew he was with a big probably top 30 law firm. He's like, they are not going to adjust in time. Like there's no, there's They're like, we like that our associates are just running up hours on tasks that could be one-shotted by AI. I built 300, 3,600 hours my last month is a lawyer. And what is? There's also the last month.
Starting point is 00:51:37 Yeah, next time someone tells you they're working too hard in tech. I literally billed three, three thousand six hundred hours. Now, that was not an average month, but still. I hate it with over three thousand a few months a year, though, usually. But an associate today will do like a few thousand, well, a year? The culture is degraded to, like. Wait, but how do you bill three thousand a month? I wasn't even as we can afford it in a year.
Starting point is 00:51:56 I wasn't anywhere near the top 5%. You mean a year, right? You mean a year, right? Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Okay, 360 hours in January 2000. Okay, okay, that makes sense. But the top associates in S&C were over 3,000 for the year. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:52:12 I'd be like 26, 2700, so I was a slacker. I mean, you're a buyer of legal products as well as an investor in legal AI products. Are you advising your portfolio companies to push harder on their law firm? to get that their deals? So every founder I know actually uses Chatsybt for legal research. Then they call up their lawyer. And the lawyer's giving them advice, so they're literally trying to get it's incredible. Sometimes they're actually screenshoting and saying what you're telling me is wrong.
Starting point is 00:52:38 Does ChatGBTGT need some like legal, like clearly a lot of people are using it? But there was just a judgment today that was requiring Chad ChbD to turn over a bunch of stuff. So it's not perfectly not privileged. Sure. So it's complicated to use it. We'll see how the law is, but it's probably the right decision as a legal matter. But I do know, I talked a conversation with the CEO of more than a $100 billion company. And he has a legal team that spends $40 million a year.
Starting point is 00:53:03 And he authorized all his lawyers to use chat TPT. Wow. He's just like, look, you need to adopt this tool. I mean, they all use Google. Right, of course. So a lawyer technically uses chat TBT, it might be privileged. But if you, as a consumer, normal person, input stuff like, oh, you know, how do I hide the word of weapon? That is definitely not privileged.
Starting point is 00:53:22 I wonder if there's certain businesses that start and build knowing that they're going to get sued a lot. I wonder if this levels the playing field for businesses like that that are going to going after markets that don't want innovation. And they could just say, like, yeah, we would have needed a team of 20 lawyers back in the day. But actually now we can have like a few like really efficient. Yeah, well, there are startups in the legal space that basically are a substitute for a lawyer. Sure. And then there's the legal AI startups that make lawyers more efficient. And which is, which is spellbook?
Starting point is 00:53:51 Spellbook is making lawyers, mostly making lawyers more successfully. For firms and now for companies. Got it. We have a lot of like, actually Fortune Thelons in companies. Because you think about the incentives of a corporate legal department,
Starting point is 00:54:02 they're different than the law firm frenziers. Yep. Like corporate legal departments want to spend less and get faster responses. Yep. So it makes tons of sense. And then you can customize to the culture of that company.
Starting point is 00:54:12 Yeah. So like eBay uses Spellbook, for example. And they have their own preferences about how they want to practice law. And we can implement that on software Versus like Google's not a customer, but Google might have different preferences. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Starting point is 00:54:25 Yeah, we've been seeing this new trend. I mean, the lineage here in legal is Clear Spire and then Atrium. And now people are trying it again. What do you think about folks who say, I was on a particular track where I'd be at a firm. Now I'm going to start an AI powered firm. Should they be raising money or should they just go do that on their own? Usually the way they start, though, is a ratio of humans and models.
Starting point is 00:54:49 Yeah. It's not like just all the market. model. Yeah, yeah, yeah. So you're going to have to pay lawyers for a while. Like, you want to take the ratio from 80% humans to 80% automation and like hopefully quickly. Atrium basically never did that. And maybe they didn't have the technology to do it. They got hooked on the drug, I think. Yeah. I knew some of the machine learning folks at Atrium at the time and they were like, we're close to understanding documents with AI. And but close doesn't pay the bills. So you still be human in the loop technically for most of these products right now. That's going
Starting point is 00:55:18 change and the ratio should be like one human for 99 customers or 99 documents or 9,000 documents. Yeah, yeah, yeah. And then the economics could work, but I think you would need to raise venture money up front. Sure. Also, maybe for credibility. There's some signaling, you know, like people are buying enterprise company, enterprise all across the globe, any vertical, are buying AI products. That's what we're allowed these, you know, vertical application companies to hit, you know, 100 million of revenue quickly. Is there top down demand at very large fortune? How do you, how do you assess quality of revenue if a founder comes to you and says, yeah, I am raising it $100 million for my first round, but I have a $5 million deal with some Fortune 500 company. And so it's really not that
Starting point is 00:55:59 crazy of a revenue multiple. But then you start wondering, obviously, is that going to stick? Or can they just bounce? Well, we asked for the contract, actually, because the terms may bury. I often ask to call the customer. Why are you buying this? What do you hope it does, you know, and achieve what are the business goals? How confident are you that you're achieving those business goals. Sure. So that's actually a pretty standard reference. Just as due diligence. Yeah. Yeah. Does that mean that like the level of, the level of due diligence required on these deals, even if the early stage, like the round numbers, it might still be a seed, but it's a bigger number. You're treating it with the due diligence that you would bring to an A. I think, I think you do need
Starting point is 00:56:35 to look at what's the source of the revenue. What are the terms of that relationship? Are they a pilot, permanent, do they have cancellation rights? And then you can look at the underlying metrics like where you always used to, which is what's the active usage. Yeah. Ultimately, and everybody in your organization is using a product. Even if you have the contractual right to cancel, you're not canceling it. So, like, you can look at M-A-Us, D-A-Us, all those kind of things. And actually, we do tend to look at that. I tend to personally look at the engagement metrics as much as the revenue metrics.
Starting point is 00:57:00 You also look at the margin metrics because ultimately, like, yeah, if you give away someone pays $5 million, that costs you 10, it's a great deal. Like, that's not a long-term business. I mean, if you're a enterprise, you know, CIA or CTO, you're probably, getting pitched some stuff where you're like, wait, I was going to buy those tokens anyway. Yeah. There were going to give me a half of the cost. And I don't even have the infrastructure to run it. So it's like, totally.
Starting point is 00:57:24 I don't have to buy it. I don't have to. Totally. There was a lot of bearishness around certain vertical specific AI tools and enterprise AI after that MIT report came in that nobody read the source material. And just anecdotally, it feels incorrect. But I think the simplistic way to look at it is like, will, large companies spend more on AI in
Starting point is 00:57:48 2026 than 2025, and I think like you've leaned like yes. I mean, I think you could critique, you're right, nobody read the report, they just read the high line, you know, the X or something. But I think it comes down to, as you've noticed, talked about, the quality of the implementation. If you have the right people implementing it, you're going to get high quality results. If you just think the software is just going to show up
Starting point is 00:58:08 out of the box, it's going to work in transform your information, highly unlikely, unless the product was designed to be that way, there are a few products that you see that, you know, are designed for a consumer to just, like, or a user, like an average employee to just use out of the box, that's pretty rare. Usually you have some implementation hurdle, and I suspect a lot of these things are getting trapped in the implementation sort of, you know, box somewhere. Yeah. Do you think that? No, sorry.
Starting point is 00:58:31 You guys have stayed out of the prediction market wars? We have not invested in a prediction market. Was that, like, was there a moment where you wanted to and the dynamics of the round didn't work out, or was that a conscious choice? It's a good question, and maybe I've been burned because I helped start in like seeded invested way back of the day, this thing called BlueBap, which is an early prediction market. It's a really cool product. Kevin Hart's Javan and I worked with this founder back in the day. Like 2005 or six. Isn't you from YouTube or PayPal?
Starting point is 00:59:02 Yeah. Yeah, right? There's never any new ideas. We could never get it to work. The hardest part that made it work, wasn't it like on the better side or the wager side? It was actually getting enough bets. And maybe now, with AI, you can scalably create enough interesting bets. We're going to do it by hand.
Starting point is 00:59:20 Sure. We just never could get that treadmill working. Well, you maybe didn't do sports bet. Well, we didn't do sports, but it was illegal. So, yeah, obviously, there's a lot on-ramp to traction has been sports and then cleverly politics. Yeah, we did have political bets there. And so, anyway, maybe I was burned by that. Then there's another question, which is, I like the political markets.
Starting point is 00:59:41 Yeah. I said we're bold early and impactful. You do have to start thinking about which market segments are actually positive impact in society. Sure. They're just giving average Americans more places to gamble. Certainly is not something I want to invest in. Now, there are markets that are illiquid and the byproduct of the liquidity is a good thing for society like politics. Yep.
Starting point is 01:00:00 But I don't want too many people speculating. Like Americans don't have a lot of money. They gamble. That's fine. They bet on sports now, which maybe is fine. They got on crypto, whether they called that or not. Yeah. So adding more speculation to the American, you know, consumer, I'm not sure he's something I want to, you know, invest in time. How much attention have you? We want healthy American consumer. How much attention have you paid to just this tension between states clearly want to regulate this stuff? And yet the CFDC has decided like, hey, these are event contracts. Like, where it's under our jurisdiction. How have you kind of like watch that play? Well, obviously the polymarket guys have played their cards really well. Controversial, you know, at the beginning, probably very high risk. You know, Alfred, as I offered then talking about.
Starting point is 01:00:41 a little bit. I'm sure he probably opposed it, but the founder was pretty tenacious and it worked out. They all played the regulatory cards in interesting different ways, so it's worked out well for them. But the story's not over. Well, I think they're in pretty good shape.
Starting point is 01:00:58 You know, the biggest issue they had historically was more U.S. citizens were using their products before they were supposed to. Yeah. But I think the statute of limitations might sort of be hitting on that. Sure. Yeah. Yeah. It's fascinating. Do you think this will be a political issue in the next cycle? In terms of tech stuff that we've been monitoring, it feels like the AI data center, energy use, water use.
Starting point is 01:01:22 Like those are the questions that people want to answer in D.C. job displacement stuff. Job displacements, obviously. That's a bigger question than, okay, yeah, like my, you know, my uncle, he was always a sports better. Now he uses a different platform. Like, it's kind of a status quo. I think unless people start losing a lot of money. So, you know, in sports betting, you definitely have this. You have the opposite of Wales, people, you know, where else the company? Totally. People use a massive amount of money.
Starting point is 01:01:46 And that becomes a really sad story for them, for their family, and it becomes a political issue then. If, for some reason, you get more people bending, bending, bending, weight, during whatever, predicting, but they're not, like, massively exposed, I think then it won't be a political issue. Yeah, yeah. I mean, we've been tracking AI diffusion. We're obviously excited about a lot of the products getting in people's hands, like, like, spellbook, like law firm for like legal AI. At the same time, we're just not seeing that much job displacement. Maybe it's coming, but it feels like there are, if whatever's happening when somebody lays people off, it's probably not because they're just, oh, now it's just a prompt.
Starting point is 01:02:25 But do you think tech needs to do a better job of telling that story or understanding how there will be co-pilots in the future? I mean, you know, I was in a speech that President Trump gave and he says, like, I don't like the terms artificial intelligence. You guys need better branding. Yeah. And nobody's come up with a better answer. I think so much. should. Like artificial intelligence sounds scary. It does bad. Robots. When you say like you're having artificial sweetener, you know, yeah, yeah, yeah. So like, I think you could rebrand it. Something like that. Yeah. Right now it really is like a power up. Like, if you're a very creative, co-pilot, it's created to Sotjeanadella and the Microsoft folks. Like,
Starting point is 01:02:56 like, like, okay, I have a helpful assistant that's alongside me. Does the co-pilot ever put the pilot out of business? Never. Not yet. Not yet. Not yet. Maybe it happens. But like, you have a long-tell and kind of situational planes that makes it prudent. But, but, I don't think there's going to be job elimination. I think there's going to be job substitution. Sure. You know, we're going to, we need more data centers.
Starting point is 01:03:17 Well, to build data centers requires a lot of advanced clothing. A lot of advanced electricians. These people get paid a lot of money. Like three times. Three times something. Three to five acts easily the median income in the United States. So we're going to be building a lot of infrastructure. Building infrastructure creates jobs.
Starting point is 01:03:35 Are the people who, you know, are doing this now going to have to substitute something else maybe but I don't I do think there is going to be some substitution for white collar work like accounting lawyers maybe doc primary care doctors so what advice would you give to high school student I think you're still like read learn learn reading writing and math very well even though the computers can read they can write and you can definitely do math you need to know the fundamentals like I mean like there's a research paper I read tweeted this week about if you if you handwrite your notes first type your notes in class you you you you on any metric you have that you're in middle school if they're in high school should
Starting point is 01:04:13 they be fighting to the nail lig in the ivy league where are they going where are they learning that's a good question chill fellows seem to work out well it does i'm a fan i'm a fan you know my kids are four i hope by the time they're they're better they better not have to go to college by the time they grow up it'd be really sound you're not saving for it i know sorry no college we're spending on a i yeah um we'll get them a little data center what about what about for the the next generation of undramarers that are just getting to Silicon Valley right now. And they're seeing a trend of what we call like the deal guy Yuga, the deal guy era, this idea that it used to be you get to Silicon Valley and you're
Starting point is 01:04:51 writing code and you're in the basement or you're in the garage. You write the code and then you put it on the internet and everyone shows up and your elegant algorithm just produces Google and you create a trillion dollars in value. And it's because you're the PhD scientist, you're the mathematician that you get rewarded. And now it feels like you can maybe make it in Silicon Valley, it would be not caring so much about the technical aspects, but instead about the deals, putting pieces together. That's a little scary. So the funny thing, though, is, like, people use Sam as an example of this,
Starting point is 01:05:17 but, like, he was running a research lab for years. And so, like, even though... And also, he was, like, he was a CS dropout, too. Yeah, he was also CS dropout and, like, definitely built, like, an app. Yeah, he built an app. But now, so the reason why it's scary, and this is maybe portraying my age, is back in the late bubble, Internet bubble, 96,000, there used to be all these, what we used to call,
Starting point is 01:05:38 business dev people running around all the companies and all do all these deals and then the bubble collapse yeah and every a lot of people ascribed the bubble and collapse to these biz dev people oh interesting to everybody stopped using the label was also how you met a biz dev version yeah like never like for the last 25 years so see it we all rebranded bdr but they're like rebranded well biz dev was like higher as like partnerships sure that was how everybody tried i come to you i say keith i'm gonna i'm gonna give you a hundred million dollar of revenue and you're like you funny enough i'm also gonna give you That's $100 million in the company. I'm going to give you $100 million for revenue.
Starting point is 01:06:10 That was the classic example. So that's how I started my career tech, actually. It was a business debt person. And if you look at my LinkedIn profile, it's still there. Okay. But it became like this, you know, sort of negative signal on your resume. I was business-dend people running around. And so everybody's doing that now.
Starting point is 01:06:25 That is a scary indication that maybe we're hitting, you know, some people. Yeah, yeah. So, I mean, would your advice to new entrepreneurs say, ignore the noise, ignore the frothy rounds, retreat to what? Product, market fit, programming, AI. I think ultimately deliver value. I think it's actually really simple, building a startup. It's like you create a value proposition.
Starting point is 01:06:47 Yes. And then you explain the value proposition to people. You're pin post. And then you actually, yeah, yeah. There's market, you know, that's basically it. Like, what is my value proposition to who? Like, what do I do for you that's good for you? It could be good for your business, it can be good for your life.
Starting point is 01:07:02 And then can I articulate that in a way that causes you to interrupt your life and test it out and verify those claims and then rinse your repeat so you can create a value proposition through massive use of technology created through design you can create it through the intersection of humans design and technology it doesn't actually matter but you have to have a very crisp sustained compelling value proposition in business cases you want to move the P&L of your customers like I had an enterprise company maybe the only enterprise true enterprise company I ever have funded and joined the board of where our first customer is Walmart Everybody's like, no, how's your Walmart going to be your first customer?
Starting point is 01:07:36 And they spent $5 billion on us. The reason why was we figured out there was one of the top three priorities for the company we could address. Our second customer was AT&T, another classic customer. Yeah. Spent $10 million, or it was a telecom. It was an ATD. It was a different telecom, actually. We could, our technology allowed them to understand their turn better.
Starting point is 01:07:57 What's the only issue in the telecom business? Sure. Subscribe return. That's the only thing that matters. because they all compete on, like, sure. Somebody else is going to offer. Nobody had a technology that could literally take all their data and actually figure out why people were returning.
Starting point is 01:08:13 So if you have the correct value proposition, all of the rules are changed. So just dial into the value proposition and then figure out how to articulate it, which sometimes can be different per my post. Sometimes you have actually marketing fit and sometimes you actually have your product positioning fit and sometimes you actually have value proposition fit.
Starting point is 01:08:29 Sometimes you start with both, but sometimes you're bad at one and it kind of masks and it is not clear that you're actually really good. Well, yeah, marketing market fit. Marketing market fit will mask the lack of product market fit for about a year. Yeah. The other one doesn't get masked. It's harder.
Starting point is 01:08:44 Sometimes it's hard to fix. Like you may go back to the product and think you don't have a value prop. You actually do. You just can't explain it because you only get a certain amount of attention to explain. You got to distill it. Once you distill it to the right people, then it might take off without changing the product. But that's the art.
Starting point is 01:08:59 True CRO is actually good at this art of trying relation. how do you there's been some kind of coalitions or not really coalitions but Walmart and Etsy have leaned into LLM Commerce they've partnered with Open AI Amazon and eBay
Starting point is 01:09:15 have not yet Shopify has how do you who you think is going to look smart in two years for like leaning into these platforms early because we talk to... Well I think leaning in to learn so there's a question are they leaning in or are they leaning into learn? Lending to learn is a great idea like if you're Shopify of course
Starting point is 01:09:31 Like, will people use ChatTPT in a way that leads to product discovery and product purchases? At least a friend of ours has a Shopify brand. They do like 200 million of revenue. He says people that land on his site from Chat Chbitty convert at 12%. Which is like insane. That I agree with. I'm sure that's true. Because it's authoritative in the recommendation.
Starting point is 01:09:51 Sure. The signal, it's better than a blue link. However, the question is the volume. And what's the increase of that volume? Yeah. Like how much of... It's low today. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:09:59 So that's the question is, what does that change? and what triggers that change, what catalyzes it. But, I mean, you know, we invested in a company called Profound. They're a sponsor. They're a sponsor. Yeah, so they allow you as a brand to track how various, whether it's Gemini, chat, TPD, et cetera, are showcasing your products and brands. That's critical to the future.
Starting point is 01:10:20 But what consumers ultimately decide to do, do they actually start using ChatTP to recommend the next two to them or not? I think in some verticals, almost surely yes. I want Christmas data so badly I feel like this is the first year that we're really going to get an answer at least the labs will now I don't know if we'll figure it out but
Starting point is 01:10:39 about the agentic shopping just the propensity to let me give me an example is something they can solve so like you're a guy and you want to buy a new blazer like I need a blazer so I don't look like ridiculous if you guys and you're looking like a nice Christmas sweater
Starting point is 01:10:52 so I got to figure out what what blazer is going to fit me off the rock I don't have time to get a tailor sure impossible task, like today. Yeah. Like, literally, like, you'd actually, even if you know your fashion,
Starting point is 01:11:04 almost an impossible task. Like, you might know your brands. Roll on the dice. Right. I can imagine, though, chatyPD kind of knows, you know, what I buy, how it fits,
Starting point is 01:11:13 what things I return, what things I don't over time. It just says, Keith, go to Hugo Boss. Yep. 38 or 48 or 42. Well, it fits you off the rack. Like, that is something
Starting point is 01:11:23 that doesn't exist online. And there's a lot of latent demand for consumers not to go to retail. Like, the reason why I go to retail, typically, is I either need something immediately or I need to try it off. Yeah. Yeah, there's also this interesting thing where chaty pt and basically every LLM has been only poll in the sense that you have to go and prompt it. It never just sends you a push notification and says, they're experimenting with pulse. So they'll say, okay, we know that you like venture capital
Starting point is 01:11:50 news and you like learning that data centers. I think they deprioritized that. They have deprioritized it. But I still think that there's a glimmer of something valuable there where they could proactively send you results. It's very compute intensive and I don't know if they got the form factor right, but there's clearly a glimmer of something There's a glimmer there, the question is going to be the quality right? Ultimately, yeah, totally
Starting point is 01:12:10 magical, but I'm going to react to the first five they send me and either love it or hate it and they're not going to get a second shot. Totally, totally. So I think that's hard to do it in a beat off. No, no, no, it's hard but I think over time, the scale, like all the math and like the actual value, we've seen
Starting point is 01:12:26 it work with like some of the Instagram ads where you were like, wow, I didn't even know I wanted that. It's really cool. People are satisfied. I think that will come. People are also more comfortable sharing data than any other tech product I've ever seen. So I think like my sizing and things like that, you know, they allow me, if I put that in memory, it makes
Starting point is 01:12:42 it a hell of a lot easier. So help me square that because I feel like that's true. I feel like people have these incredibly personal conversations with LLMs. They use them for all these funny things. They're obviously seeing AI search results. And yet AI as a whole feels like the most unpopular technology in decades.
Starting point is 01:13:01 Well, I think it may be a one percent issue, too. There's a lot of people who are motivated for their own reasons, you know, to cause, there's create negative feedback on age. Well, to be clear, it's also because, it's also because, it's also because, for example. Five years ago, there was a lot of interviews that happened where they were talking about job loss and just, like, total distraction. Well, even Sam, like, made the mistake of, like, talking about UBI. We need UBI.
Starting point is 01:13:22 Like, this is a mistake. We need UBI because it's going to be job loss. Yeah. Well, first of all, it's not going to be job loss. boss, we were talking about arguably, but B, like, highlighting that a decade before any of that happens makes no sense whatsoever. And UBI, by the way, is a terrible solution. Sure. So for all those reasons, it created, like, more fear. And then the safety hoax people, the people are always creating folks is about, it's literally a hoax. Safety is a complete hoax.
Starting point is 01:13:44 This is my challenge. Name a single person who believes we have an AI safety issue to write about any political issue for 50 years. Every single person who's talking about safety has been wrong on the environment, has been wrong on equality and all that nonsense. So, like, I just don't believe any of this because the people are always finding an excuse for bureaucrats to interfere with progression. So, I mean, that, I hear you. That's just like, that's kind of sad for our tech because, uh, well, as you know, a lot of people, a lot of people in tech, though, have very sad views. I suppose, yeah, but what I mean is like, is like, Mark Zuckerberg has dealt with a lot of attacks on like social media is bad, right? But at least you got five years of people kind of liking
Starting point is 01:14:23 posting Instagrams. People kind of liked social media before they started critiquing it. AI, day one critique. Day one critiques. Immediately. Which is critical, like, you know, there's this old, there's this old line that's stuck in my brain from when Newt Gingrich was a speaker of the house.
Starting point is 01:14:41 He said, you know, if the electric light had been invented today, it would absolutely be banned. Because it would have threatened the candle making industry. The safety, you know, it actually was somewhat unsafe, actually. A thousand of people died. But there we never were, wouldn't have allowed electricity.
Starting point is 01:14:54 And think about society without electricity. Yeah, we have a faster feed back loop on fear and actually taking action and then monetizing that fear or one way. And we saw this with nuclear power, like to some extent. If you see an AI like video that was generated and it's bad, you're like, I don't want to lose my job to this thing that I don't like, you know? And so I understand the reaction. People also, there's a bell curve distribution of people's content.
Starting point is 01:15:21 Let's take video. Yeah. of all the humans, let's assume there's no technology. What fraction of human-generated video is great or good? It's probably a fairly small fraction. But then you see the AI, you're like, oh, this is terrible. The guy that made this said, I'm going to lose my job,
Starting point is 01:15:37 and then I'm going to need UBI. Why don't we just stop all of this altogether? Yeah, yeah, yeah. It's a little bit like Paul Graham had this epic blog post about, you know, if someone, unfortunately, like, meets someone, you know, and sexually assaults them at a grocery store, like Safeway, it's not like a front page news story for the New York Times that I mean this happens all across the country unfortunately God forbid you know someone meets someone on Instagram and a DM
Starting point is 01:16:00 front page news story you know something bad God awful happens but it's the grocery you know versus the new technology and so you have to always remember that people are going to critique the new technology differently than what the real risk in the real world is that's actually probably more material yeah we have a couple minutes left and we're here at NICE what's your IPO kind of like outlook, how are you thinking about 2026? You think a lot of companies got some good ones coming up for you, hopefully. You know, we got some ventures going out.
Starting point is 01:16:27 I've heard rumors about some other funds. We are definitely not. I can assure you. We're like, we are not going to be a real. We have never had the conversation about whether we should be a public company. We're in the craft business. IPO rumors swirle. IPO rumors. No, absolutely
Starting point is 01:16:41 not. We'll let someone else do that. But who else? But, you know, obviously we've been involved in really good companies. Ramp, your sponsor, obviously, is phenomenal. It can be a company, whatever they choose to be, got Avin, Trade Republic in Europe, not as many people paying attention to great future company. There's a bunch. So I'm excited about the future. So there's some news that SpaceX is maybe thinking about going out next year. I don't have any inside information there. I mean, I read the same thing. I think it would be great. You know,
Starting point is 01:17:07 it's 22 years or something. It'd be a long time. And also just a lot of Elon fans have been riding with Tesla for a long time. Yeah, they need a lot of them. They need something new. Yeah, they need something new. Well, actually, it took X private. They'll take it back public probably at some point that you can invest in X. Take me through what you're advising those portfolio founders, without naming names, but on whether or not how they should be thinking about timing and IPO. You've obviously been a long for the ride on many. What are you counseling them on where, when to do it?
Starting point is 01:17:35 Well, I'm always a fan of go public as early as possible. Okay. Yeah. So I wrote a whole chapter in Eli Gilles book, a high growth handbook that explains why. One of the best books in the industry. It's a great book. I have two chapters. What about hiring?
Starting point is 01:17:47 and then one I'm not going public. Sure. But my general view is $50 million in revenue plus predictability. You should be a public company. Wow. There's so many benefits of being public. So I'm always counseling. As soon as you possibly can, go early and not late.
Starting point is 01:18:02 What about burning money? I feel like there's another bar which says, hey, if you're a public company, you shouldn't need to raise money anymore. Has that changed? Well, it depends on the company. Some businesses are profitable. Like trade republic wouldn't need to raise money, for example. We actually pay taxes already.
Starting point is 01:18:17 I've actually never had that happened to me. I've never been on a board of a company that's actually paying taxes. To pay corporate taxes, you actually have to offset all the more than this and profit. So we're such a great company. You burn through all your care forwards and you're done. Wow. That's fantastic. Well, thank you so much.
Starting point is 01:18:33 Is there anything else? No, this is super funny. We really appreciate you. Why New York? Why are you here? Is it the ramp mafia? You want to make sure you pick off all the... So we actually looked at my geographic investment.
Starting point is 01:18:44 So I mentioned AI is two-thirds, three quarters. New York is the number one. It has been the number one geo for me for five or six years. It's about 60% of all my investments. Application layer stuff, financial services, you know, like imprint, ramp, a lot of great companies. Basis, accounting AI, Rogo, investment banking AI, Trava is here. You know, RAM, they're a great set of companies here. And then it's better for me to be on the East Coast for like personal reasons.
Starting point is 01:19:10 Yeah, of course. Well, we appreciate you taking the time to come down. This is fantastic. I'm sure we'll catch up with you soon. Thanks for the invite. Have a good rest of your day. I'm going to tell you about Numeral. Compliance handled.
Starting point is 01:19:21 I think I already told you about Numeral, so I'm going to tell you about Figma. Again. Think bigger, build faster. Figma helps design and development teams build great products together. And our next guest is Lynn Martin, the president of the New York Stock Street. While we wait, Dan Seroker's company, Limitless has been acquired by META. Oh, congratulations to him. There's a video here that we cannot play, but Meta acquires AI wearable startup Limitless.
Starting point is 01:19:43 We were to talk about it. I feel like there's a lot of operational. in the AI wearable space, there's a lot of cool stuff happening. It just feels like fertile playground. I feel like it would be a fun time to be a hardware hacker. We talked about that transcription piece of hardware that's making $250 million out of nowhere. Very interesting companies. There's obviously cool things to do. A lot of the, a lot of the attention goes to the Rabbit R1, the friend pin, the humane AI pin, but there's cool stuff happening all over the industry. And so, it's a voice recorder. Again, voice recorder. They had a hardware device.
Starting point is 01:20:20 Amazing. Notable that, yeah, again, limitless, I don't think was able to crack, like, real growth with the hardware, but that company Plod has. But again, this is a great outcome for them. I'm sure the whole limitless team is. And let me tell you about Privy. Privy makes it easy to build on crypto rails, securely spam white label wallets, sign transactions, and integrate on chain infrastructure all through one simple API. What else is going on in the timeline journey? Let's see here. Yeah, I mentioned this briefly in the conversation with Keith,
Starting point is 01:20:56 but apparently opening I must turn over 20 million chat logs to plaintiffs. Judge Oana Wang has ruled. You have to send an email to a server that adds a chat TPT response in with your lawyer cede. That's how you maintain confidentiality. Harvey, who Keith also mentioned, raised $160 million at an $8 billion valuation. This is why Keith was talking about. A2% dilution round from A16C. A 3x revenue this year to $150 million.
Starting point is 01:21:29 They raised $300 million from Sequoia at $3 billion in January. $300 million at $5 billion from K2 and KP in June. And then $160 at $8 from A16C. Shout out to Spencer and the boys at Koto for a little. mark up there. And I feel like I feel like law firms got to be pretty discerting on making this purchase decision at this point. Like it's not it's not entirely exploratory budget anymore and it's not viral like something that's like oh it's like a flash in the pan and then all of a sudden like they're not going to be able to monitor. Yeah my question is like do you like if anybody
Starting point is 01:22:03 that wants to say like oh this is like out of control it's like do you think they'll be able to get to like a billion dollars of revenue legal industry is pretty big and and it's been traditionally pretty hard. And they actually They actually, so the labor displacement thing does feel real here because I do think a law firm would say, hey, currently we have 100 associates. Yeah. We can condense that down to about 20 and do the same amount of work by working with something like Harvey. And again, the vibe had had at least with a lawyer buddy of mine had shifted drastically with Harvey a year ago. He was saying, we're like using it a little bit.
Starting point is 01:22:40 Now he's like it's one-shotting stuff that I didn't think it would. He says, I'm one-shoted, actually, by it. I'm one-shot. Well, one-shot your data analysis with Julius AI, the AI data analyst that works for you. Join millions who use Julius to connect their data, ask questions. We should have gone to Rahul here. We should have told them to come here and be in the capital with us. We'll do that soon.
Starting point is 01:23:06 We have a new company called The Hog. Oh, wait, really? The Palantir for Go to Market. We were just talking about, yeah, we were talking about swine theme, startup names. You have pig, you have. Apparently, carried no interest, watched their launch video twice. I evaluate software businesses for a living. Still no idea what Hogg does.
Starting point is 01:23:26 Good to see you. What's happening? Good to see you. Good to see you. Thank you so much. Thank you so much. Oh, yes. Yes, green sandwich.
Starting point is 01:23:37 But it is. I mean, yesterday we were greeted by a number of folks in your team. was dressed to the nines. What is treasily festive and fantastic. It was the tree lighting, right? So this is every year. Walk us through exactly what happened. There were mascots, there's celebrities, everything.
Starting point is 01:23:51 They were singing. Oh, I've seen the tree outside. It's massive. CFOs, celebrities, mascots, charitable organizations, all celebrating the holiday season. We had about 10,000 people. 10,000 outside.
Starting point is 01:24:05 We heard. No, it was crazy because we walked in. We walked in yesterday. It felt like there was an IPO going on. It felt like an IPO. Yeah. It felt like Sienna was IPO. And then today, we were like, oh, okay, actually, this is a huge event.
Starting point is 01:24:18 You know, Hank Azaria actually made a joke that he was IPOing yesterday. He was part of the celebrities. He did a spot. That was great. But, I mean, it's a great opportunity for a list of companies to get some visibility, particularly the consumer-focused brands. There were about 30 different tents outlining Wall Street. It celebrates the downtown community. It's great opportunity to generate business and give a bit back.
Starting point is 01:24:40 What other big events? like tree lighting that are kind of off of, like things that you can count on happening every year? Yeah. What's on the calendar regularly at the New York Stock Exchange? You know, we do a lot around the... Is there like a Fourth of July? We do a lot
Starting point is 01:24:56 Fourth of July Memorial Day, like those types of holidays to celebrate Veterans Day to celebrate our military. Anytime there's something to celebrate our military and people who have served this great country, it's all about giving back and highlighting what
Starting point is 01:25:11 makes this country great. Obviously, one of the things that makes this company, this country great, is our phenomenal capital markets. Yes. Yes. And it's really a unique differentiator. Yes. There you go.
Starting point is 01:25:25 I love that. But then also like our military, people who selflessly protect us every single day. And then the not-for-profit, the charitable organizations who so many of our listed companies support as part of the tree lighting. We highlight the charitable organizations that are listed companies support. And this year we have 400 of our listed companies that have contributed to that program. So all throughout the season, we like to highlight that. People who have done good things, but also are paying it forward.
Starting point is 01:26:02 Yeah, and we heard that in 10 years, there has never been an IPO that landed exactly on the tree lighting. No, but some of it's close. Some of it's close. Okay. So what's the latest in December that, that, uh, that, that, that, that you remember an actual, like, IPO happening? The week before Christmas, I think, New Bank. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:26:27 Oh, go away. Yeah, New Bank in 2021 was a pretty late IPO. I don't remember if it was, uh, the 19th or the 20th of December. Oh, that's late. That's basically the top of ads. Well, and that's, that's, that's, that's, that's, that's, that's, that's, that's, that's, that's, that's, that's, that's, you can, like, you can place an order and so get the product. That's kind of, like, the last day of business, basically. Exactly.
Starting point is 01:26:50 The rush. The rush. Right. Yeah. Yeah. What is the holiday season? When is the stock exchange dark? How much time?
Starting point is 01:26:57 You know, we're not really ever dark. If I look at the calendar for the next couple of weeks, or example, we have a ton of ETFs going out, which is actually not received as much coverage. If I look at the calendar for the next couple of weeks, for example, we have a ton of ETFs going out, which is actually not received as much coverage as the IPOs of operating companies. What does that process look like from even like the roadshow stage all the way to, like, listing? I mean, that one's a little bit different because you can just launch the ETF and then accumulate a I know, but is there any, like, I mean, but I'm assuming, like, you're building, well, I'm assuming you're trying to build, like, attention going into, going into the process.
Starting point is 01:27:35 A lot of times you're also spending the time looking at the index you're benchmarking against and back testing the results and then going out to the people who are going to contribute the AOM and show them the performance of the ETF and how it would have performed under stress periods and different macroeconomic events. What trends are you seeing in some of these net new ETFs? You know, crypto ETFs have been a big, a big unlock for that industry. You're seeing just a continuation of the various types of ETS equities, fixed income as well. Fixed income has also been a big unlock. ETFs have been probably one of the greatest financial innovations of our lifetimes, my lifetime, in particular, where it allows, someone to invest in an incredibly liquid vehicle that has incredibly illiquid constituent baskets. So if I think of like the fixed income market, which is where I came from, like the
Starting point is 01:28:37 Muni ETFs, they've been able to accumulate a good amount of assets. Crypto. It's been another online. Some folks have been on our show talking about the future of, you know, putting graphics cards in an ETF or getting AI compute or data centers and giving folks more access to that. I know some of the private credit funds, we had John Zito on the show yesterday from Apollo, but some of the other funds have taken different funds and IPOed them separately so that they get more direct access. And I would expect to see more of that, but I don't know what you're saying. Yeah, I mean, there's been a fair amount of folks who talked about private private instruments and putting them in an ETF wrapper. I know Vlad's talked about that from
Starting point is 01:29:19 Robert. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. That he's looking at that as an opportunity. Yeah, I mean, there's been insatiable demand for private company stock all in Silicon Valley, but it's usually done through angel investing, never really through an ETF, but it seems a structure and how you disclose information and whatnot and make sure that you're having a good basket of assets. And how, and do you actually have a voting share in the underlying basket? There's a lot more logistics to work out in that, but in general, ETFs are going to add a layer of transparency that a lot of these illiquid assets don't have because they're marked to market every day they have nav at the end of the day the fund the fund has been some other experiments with
Starting point is 01:30:05 trying to bring private shares into the public markets that aren't that that end up trading like you know three four times nav and then end up being like the underlying assets can be high quality but if you're buying them at four X or something like that the actual valuation is like you're just actually lighting money on fire 2026 everybody Everybody's super excited. We just talked to Keith. It's going to be a big year. It's going to be a big year.
Starting point is 01:30:29 It's going to be a big year. You know, the year was going really, really well, and then you had various events such as Liberation Day in the beginning of the year that sort of shut the window, the IPO window, but obviously it reopens how we met you guys, here we are. And then the government shut down temporarily closed the market as well. So a variety of our deals have now pushed into January. But January, it's going to be a busy January. That's amazing.
Starting point is 01:30:57 It's really busy Q1. And now it feels like momentum because that narrative is out there and these deals are going to go early in the new year, momentum's truly building for the rest of 2026. But you got, remember, you got midterms at the end of 26. Oh, yeah. How have midterms historically impacted just like whether or not it's kind of the the window's open or close. Probably for a couple weeks before, the window will be shut for a bit of time.
Starting point is 01:31:30 Because people are going to, they're going to be, they're not going to want to go when there's potential volatility in the market. Anytime you have a large group of elections or a monumental election like the election for a president, you're not going to want to go just before because you just don't know what's going to happen around that election period. Yep. That makes sense. Well, we just want to say thank you for welcoming us. I am so psyched to have you guys. I mean, look at this. It's still, it's still surreal. And thank you for letting us this be our home on the East Coast.
Starting point is 01:32:07 It's a little better. It was your home. Literally could not have picked a better place. Your interview yesterday with Kramer. It was so much fun. Oh, my gosh. We came from pulling a chance. Off the charts.
Starting point is 01:32:17 He tweeted in the morning. He was like, it could be fun. It could be wild. Could be wild. And we got all the above, all the above. But we talked about the market, but we also just talked about interviewing, building relationship with CEOs over decades.
Starting point is 01:32:32 And it just laid a ground, the groundwork. I remember we watched his interview with Tim Cook 15 years ago, a decade ago. And you guys mentioned that. And watch how he built that relationship, really remarkable work. And a lot of it happened in this building.
Starting point is 01:32:45 A lot of it happened right down there. A lot of it. Well, we're looking forward to eventually joining, joining him on his show. And I just hope we can bring the same level of energy that he has. You can bring your gong and your panel alongside his panel. And I can't wait to see who's louder on that deck. We got to hit the, uh.
Starting point is 01:33:05 Yeah, we got to hit the partner for the partnership. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. For the gong hit for the partnership. I will hold this up. This is for you. The official gong hitting. Go! There we go.
Starting point is 01:33:18 Now that's a gong. That's a gong. That's a gong. We're going to leave. We're going to leave these here. for you, so if you're ever, you need a boost of energy. Yeah, yeah.
Starting point is 01:33:25 Instead of a thing, coffee. Oh, exactly. Thank you so much. Thank you so much. We appreciate you. We'll be back soon. We are going to come out of time. Cognition.
Starting point is 01:33:36 The team behind the AI software engineer, Devin, crush your backlog with your personal AI engineering team. And I'm also going to tell you about Gemini 3 Pro, Google's most intelligent model yet, state-of-the-art reasoning, next-level vibe coding, and deep multimodal
Starting point is 01:33:51 integrations. What else is in the timeline? We, of course, have Emily Sundberg from Feedme, joining in just a second. We're very excited to have her on the show. But is there anything else in the timeline that we should run through before we bring in Emily? Chrome Hearts. Chrome Hearts.
Starting point is 01:34:11 Acquired one of my favorite hotels. Wait. The surf rider. The surf rider. Oh, they did. I think it was the family, the Starks, the owners. We've been there. Dylan, Dylan will stay there sometimes when he's in L.A. They acquired one of my favorite hotels. I used to stay there a lot, and then I moved right near it,
Starting point is 01:34:31 and so now I don't have any reason to stay there, unfortunately. But interesting pickup. It's an iconic hotel. They paid more than $1.8 million per room, which puts it among Southern California's priciest hotel deals in years. It's just 20 rooms. And so, yeah, I don't, I don't, I don't, I don't, I, I, I, I, I, I, I, I, was it had been owned by I know the guy who created the hotel it was basically an impossible task to like redevelop this like basically it was an old motel that was kind of crumbling he redeveloped it made it beautiful many people said it couldn't be done just because of the coastal commission and just how hard it is to like do any type of like development work in malibu he did it sold it to private equity I think this is it in trading hands again but I'm excited
Starting point is 01:35:16 to see what they do with it they've been they have do they've just been in Malibu for so long and have a great presence there. It's a beautiful hotel. I love it. And it's fun of its Crill Hearts now. Before we move on, let me tell you about Fall, the genera Media app platform for developers, develop and fine-tuned models with serverless GPUs
Starting point is 01:35:35 and on-demand clusters. Shout out to Jim O'Shaughnessy. He says, when I say I love Bach, I really mean it. He listened to 64,000 minutes of Bach last year, which puts him in the 0.001% of Global Fame. He's just on repeat. It's like no Mozart. I don't even drift away.
Starting point is 01:35:56 I'm willing. I'm riding with Bach 24-7. How many minutes are in a year? Can you actually look that up? 60 times 24 times 365? He was listening. Okay, okay, so there's 525,000 minutes in a year, I think, if I got that right? Yep.
Starting point is 01:36:18 Um, and so he was listening for 60,000 minutes, 60,000 minutes. So more than 10% of his time. So that's, that's more than two hours every day. This guy's listening to just Bach. He's an absolute dog. This is the craziest thing. What happened? I mean, I feel I didn't even, I think I was like top 2% fan on my most played artist. Yeah, no, no. I actually haven't looked through my top 1%. He's a point 0.0.1%. Okay. Yeah, well, good. Well, let's bring in Emily Sun and let's also tell you about getbezzle.com. Shop over 26,500 luxury. Great to see you. Hi. Welcome.
Starting point is 01:36:55 Welcome to nice. I'm just seeing you. I'm not saying welcome. Yeah, good to have you here. How's it going? It's going great last night. We were at an event and the interviewer was asking us a bunch of questions about the business and stuff, but one of the questions that it didn't faze me at the time, but then I talked about it with someone later,
Starting point is 01:37:13 and I'll give you the question, and I want to see how you interpret it. It was, if you are on a desert. If you are on a desert island, you're stranded on a desert island, what are three Twitter accounts that you would follow? Oh. Maybe do that for substack. Yeah. Three substack accounts? You can do anything.
Starting point is 01:37:31 I wound up listing a substack as well. It was just technology analyst. John's just on a desert island, just like reading Ben Thompson and somebody else. New York Times for Twitter. Need Joe Wisenthall. Yeah, let's go. You definitely need Joe Wisenthal, yes. And then a third, probably like a, like a Frank O'Hara bot or something.
Starting point is 01:37:54 That just automatically gives him some poetry. So you answered the question exactly how I answered the question. And then someone came up to me after it was like, no. Like if you're stranded, you need to be following like alert services or like the Coast Guard. Oh, right. You know, like a pilot, like someone with a plane. But also pirate wires. Stop analyzing technology.
Starting point is 01:38:14 You're just waving. You're waving the Joe Wisenthall post at the sky. What is Joe Weisandthal going to do to get you off that? Joe would figure it out. He's not going to help you. He didn't know that I was missing, though, and have, like, task force. Okay, okay. And you want to know that he's coming for you.
Starting point is 01:38:28 Yeah. Yeah, he would give me the update. Speaking of Joe Wisenthal, he recently made an appearance on your new podcast. He did. Expense account. Right. And he had a take that I thought crossed journalistic lines. I thought he...
Starting point is 01:38:42 Let's hear it. He said that Malaysia has the best food. the world. Have you been? No. So how would you know? Because I'm from America and I know America has the best food in the world. I went to a birthday party at a Malaysian bar last night. Okay, was it the best food? It was great. Is Malaysian food actually that good? What is Malaysian food? It's name every, name every meal. It's, uh, do you like spice? Yeah, yeah, I like spice. I'm just saying that like, like, Malaysia has one type food. It's delicious. You should go. And beef and beef saute. A lot of beef satay. I love beef. Yeah. And then like sauces and greens. But America, we have pizza.
Starting point is 01:39:15 We have McDonald's. We have the Doritos Locos Taco. Do you have pizza in L.A.? No, but in New York, which is again in America. He would say on a country by country basis. But if you're in New York, you can make twins like that. We have San Francisco. We have French laundry. We have all sorts of restaurants.
Starting point is 01:39:30 Have you guys had any great dinners while you've been here? We had a pretty good dinner last night. Where did we go to the? We went to a steakhouse. It was delicious. Which one? I don't know. Hock something.
Starting point is 01:39:39 Oh, yeah, yeah. But I just think that the variety that you get, like, I will give Joe Weissens. I've never been, but let's give him, Malaysia is an A plus. It's an A plus. Yeah. It's like, well, then America has got to be B plus in steak and B plus in French and B plus in Sushi and B plus in, you know, Italian and all the different, all the different genres of cuisines. And you add all that. Okay, okay, you're defending. But I think he was really probably saying was like a great, this like, like probably one or two specific great Malaysian places in New York.
Starting point is 01:40:10 Because he has his spots. No, no. He was talking about going to Malaysia physically and saying that Being in Malaysia, that's the best food to work. We went to Hawks more. We went to Hawksmoor. It was good. It was good. You're not, you're not. I mean, I haven't been yet, but I'll make a trip.
Starting point is 01:40:25 Okay. Well, how is expense account going as a new podcast? Are you excited about it? It's great. It's a blast. You know, it started, Jason, my restaurant columnist. He started writing a column for me a little bit over a year ago called Expense Account. And it's sort of about like business guy restaurants, like places where somebody slams the
Starting point is 01:40:45 card down. Yes. And it was a great column. And I was reading one of them. He joked about having a podcast. He called him and I was like, are you making a show with someone else? And he said, he wasn't. Yeah, yeah, yeah. But then I said, do you want a show? And we made it in Substack and Silver Oak Wines. Sponsored Season 1. That's a great sponsor. Yeah, they're great. That's amazing. The one two, Substack for the road. Congratulations. I like that. Wait, Substack sponsored. They're the presenting sponsor of season one. Very cool. Yeah, love stuff, Zach.
Starting point is 01:41:16 Yeah, what I liked about it was the fact that I am not really a foodie, as you can tell. You guys say that, but you've been having more culinary conversations. Yes, but my example of good food America was the Doritos Locos Taco. Great. Or Baja Blas is a fantastic train. I like a Baja Blas. I like a Diet Coke. I like a Red Bull.
Starting point is 01:41:36 Same. We're on the same page. So, but, but so I was worried that I was going to open up the RSS feed and see a bunch of names that I didn't recognize. And when I saw Joe Wisenthal, I was like, I'm an. And he has great takes on food. Yes, and it was great because he's one of New York's best food reporters. I'm used to him in one context, talking about the markets, about what's happening with the latest news in the Fed, talking to founders, talking to entrepreneurs, CEOs. It was really cool to see just a different side of him.
Starting point is 01:42:02 So I think if you can keep doing that, like I'm hooked. That's the idea. Yes, yes. And I think a lot of people will jump. And honestly, a lot of people should be trying to get on the show because it shows them a different side of them. and I don't know. It just seems like it's a best meet for success. I love it. What about the West Coast expansion? You're looking west. I need your advice here. So I found substack is very limited analytics. They're great for other reasons. But in terms of like the demographics of my readers, it's limited. But I do know that about 20% of my readers live in California.
Starting point is 01:42:35 It feels like a loss to not, it feels like a miss to not do some sort of California product when I was there. On my last trip, everybody was saying, like, we want something. Like, we read, feed me religiously, but we want something in California. So I decided next year I'm just going to go out there more, like, there as a state. Sure. And I think it will probably start as, like, a monthly letter. But all of these readers of mine, they, like, have tips for me. They have stories they want to tell.
Starting point is 01:43:06 I'm not sure exactly how I'm going to focus it. But I was putting together, like, a small newsroom or thinking about people to have. help me with it. And then I realized I can just go and do it. I think that's what people want. Yeah, for sure. So I'm going to San Francisco at the end of January. Great. I asked my Twitter followers would stay. We need a prediction market on how long you're going to actually stay in that stuff. Right now it's doing nice. Okay. You're making it sound like it was going to be like three weeks. I'm going to be all right now. I mean, maybe I'll never leave. Yeah, yeah, yeah. You're going in January, not for January. In January. My husband would not want me to go for that
Starting point is 01:43:41 long. I don't think you would miss me. Yeah. And my readers would miss me in New York. Of course, of course. But, yeah, I'm not sure where to start, but my Twitter community of my, like, reply people in SF have been very welcoming and generous. And I've invited me to a few dinner parties and bars. You'll probably leave with the Scout Fund. I'm looking for, like, some hidden doors. Sure, sure.
Starting point is 01:44:08 Yeah. So, I mean, that sounds like sort of restaurant-focused, but other cultural touch points we might. The establishments have doors. Okay. Go to Sand Hill Road and just start trying doors, like against the side of some of the buildings. Yeah, I think the Feed Me report on the San, uh, the Rosewood bar on a Thursday night would really go. That would go great. I mean, it would be a great piece.
Starting point is 01:44:29 Definitely go, definitely go on Thursday. I'll be there on Thursday. I'll do that on a Thursday night. Um, but there's a lot that I don't understand. I mean, the only other time I went to SF was for WWDC. Thank you Apple. Oh, yeah. bringing me earlier this year.
Starting point is 01:44:44 Got a selfie with Tim Cook. Yeah. But Cooper Tino is a very different environment than San Francisco. I know you probably spent sometimes. But it was a same. What's the neighborhood that you don't, that not everyone always likes to say. The tenderloin?
Starting point is 01:44:57 Yeah. Oh, yeah. I live there. That's rough. Really? Yeah. We walked through there at night after dinner. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:45:03 But I mean, the Twitter headquarters for a while we're there. It wasn't fine when we were walking through. Yeah. I had John as kind of like security. Any plans to take a trip to. to the Hamptons of San Francisco. Which is...
Starting point is 01:45:16 Tahoe. Oh, Tahoe. I would say Tahoe, right? Or maybe Martha... Wait, no. Not Martha's Vineyard. What's the Martha's Vineyard of San Francisco?
Starting point is 01:45:23 I don't know. I said Marin. Marin. Yeah. Wine country. But I think Tahoe is more of the Hamptons. Because when I think of,
Starting point is 01:45:30 like, the Hamptons of, I think like two hours, three hours, four hours. Is that skiing? Yeah, you can ski. You can bow and do a bunch of different things. Do you guys? Occasionally.
Starting point is 01:45:39 I'm not super into it. Right. It's fine. Yeah, I've got to talk. We're into the track right now. We're into very much in a race car phase, less of the skiing phase. The most recent experience of being on the track just completely reset my expectations for what's possible with recreational sports. Find me in thermal, not, you know, what?
Starting point is 01:45:59 And you're getting ad deal ideas also from F1. Oh, yes. Always. Always. It's the best. Back to Substack. Yeah. Jack Conti at Patreon is trying to.
Starting point is 01:46:11 poach substack writers what do you think he's thinking what do you think he needs to do how do you think about the positioning of substack versus patreon just like from a vibe and cultural perspective maybe first like how do you interpret like a substack creator versus hi i'm a patreon creator yeah i think the medium is like you think patreon you think news or you think patreon you think podcast i think one-in-one model the lens scare model right yeah yeah other world you know my favorite podcast Otherworlds? Jack. Jack.
Starting point is 01:46:43 Yeah, from, yeah, he was originally... Tomicacci, Versace, whatever. Yes, yes, yes. Yeah, he rocks. I think if they keep him, that's enjoyed first step. He was with the Viler Word Elle.
Starting point is 01:46:53 Yeah. On that show, yeah, yeah. I love Other Worlds. It's amazing. I listen to... I've never listened to a podcast on the paranormal. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Like, I've never, no, no, no, I've never watched a full horror movie.
Starting point is 01:47:05 Yeah, I'm not into any of that. You just turns into a ghost. He's too afraid. You're missing out. It's a world of wonder and history. Yeah, yeah, I'm a scary cat. I'm a scary cat. Okay, I think if they keep them, you know,
Starting point is 01:47:19 they keep some of the big hitters, like Red Scare or whatever. Yeah. But I don't think, I think what both of these platforms are doing wrong is when they try to do like the sports team trade thing. Like I. Yeah. And I was feeling a bit of FOMO for a while. It's like, why not go try get new people on your platform?
Starting point is 01:47:34 Yeah, yeah, incubate. Don't try and, you need homegrown creators. Yeah, if you're Patreon, don't go pouch from subsstack. Go find someone who's working in legacy media way under paid relative to the value they create. Have them come over and do their new thing. And that was the lineage of some of the early substack deals was, we'll help you get set up, we'll give you enough money that you can pay for health care, pay for the first thing,
Starting point is 01:47:58 and then get your business up and run. Right. I was feeling a lot of FOMO that I wasn't getting the email from the Patreon team saying, come over here, we'll be a big check. And then I got one the other day, and it had the term, I haven't responded yet. Poached. Poached.
Starting point is 01:48:16 Pooched. Attempted poaching happening. You're way too, you're way too loyal. I genuinely think you're, I feel like your audience would have a mutiny. They would be like, it wouldn't work. I think you're substack coded.
Starting point is 01:48:27 That's the thing. I think you're a substack writer. But also when you see certain terms, like we're rolling out new features that we want to tell you. Roll is like a slow thing. It's not like we're launching this. And that, the email kind of
Starting point is 01:48:41 fuzzed out after that and then he followed up or they i won't i won't out i won't out who emailed me but um this is amazing yeah i love it uh but i think i think like it's okay that we're substacked to be a newsletter platform it's okay for patreon to be yeah podcast platform and i i i'm very curious to see what a email CMS on patreon even looks like do you have netflix do i have netflix sure do are you like because i pay for it but i'm not logged in my phone Like, I'm not like a regular watcher. Oh. Yeah, if you ever watch it?
Starting point is 01:49:14 Like watching on the plane? Yeah, on a plane. No. I won't do that. I don't do that. Apple TV, maybe. Okay, there you go. So, uh, but do you think you'd ever watch a podcast on Netflix?
Starting point is 01:49:23 You've seen that they're doing this? Yes. They're starting to buy podcasts and put them on Netflix. More like distribute them. Yeah. Distribute them. They got the ringer. I would not.
Starting point is 01:49:31 But these kids are really watching a lot of podcasts. They're into podcasts on TVs, on, on the wall. Wherever they can get it. I just off for a couple hours. I just that my mic. No, I think you're Wall podcasts. Yeah, they're all watching podcasts.
Starting point is 01:49:45 Like, people are watching expense account as much as listening to it. And do you think they're also watching it on, like, smart TVs, basically? Like, they throw it on on the TV, the way they might throw on, you know, reality TV show or a movie or the news. With all the, like, working from home. Okay. It's the close. Ooh. Another week.
Starting point is 01:50:06 People are walking from home here. They're closed in the stop exchange. Who is it? It's Wells Fargo. We got one tower still up here, guys. We got one tower. Shout out to Wells Fargo. Look, we're holding on. We're holding on to one column. Yeah, we got one two. We got one huge left over there, that one. Yeah, there we go. Welf and you got some management. They cut to the clause.
Starting point is 01:50:28 We're here, laws. At the New York Sabbath Street. Let's give it up for Wells Fargo. Yes, yes. Wow. She is going for it. That was great. Maybe future feed me a sponsor there. Who knows? Who knows? Impossible. Anyway, you were saying people watching Netflix shows at, uh, at, I think more and more people are sort of using their TVs as like that always on thing in the office, but in their house. So it's like a, you know, like the Harry Potter moving picture frame almost.
Starting point is 01:50:54 It's just like the TV is on, the podcast is on while they're doing whatever else we're doing. Yeah, yeah, yeah, that makes sense. Uh, holiday gifting. Yes. Uh, our gift, our, our, do gift guides matter in a world where you can tell the LLM, uh, describe the person and say generate a gift guide at, you know, every possible price point all the way through. Did you guys see the gift guide that I wrote about that Evercore sent out to everyone? It's like what to buy the, I think last year, the subject. I had, you wrote it for
Starting point is 01:51:23 Evercore? Somebody at Evercore sends it to the whole team. Because I feel like Evercore, that's a, that's a premier product. It's great. I'll forward it to you guys. I looked up the person who makes it. They've been doing it for many years. Last year, it was like, what to buy the women in your life. And this year, they changed the subject to what to buy the people in your life. But it's like luxury. items list men love it yeah so I like the idea of sort of like
Starting point is 01:51:45 this word of mouth kind of gift guide if it becomes a little bit more secret sure it substack has become a storm of gift guides this time of year and it's a lot of clothes I didn't realize that like that's what people want so much what do you do you are you guys going to make a gift guide
Starting point is 01:52:03 yeah but we're going to strict no clothes more hardware more like what track car are you going to get some affiliate what plane to buy no No, no, no. We don't. No, shopmine. No, love of the game. Oh, yeah, shopmine.
Starting point is 01:52:14 We got to have the shopmine. Is those doing on shopmine? Yeah. We should get on show. We should get that wrong. They have a lot on there now. Okay. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:52:20 Yeah, if they get a Ferrari challenge cars on there. Shotmine. That would be our word of the year. Word of the year. Phoebe needs a word of the year. Every publication has a word of the year. The economist has a word of the year. Do you?
Starting point is 01:52:34 We do. We haven't disclosed it yet. The economist's word of the year is slop. Right. I saw that. And that feels like appropriate, but also potentially could have been last year's word of the year. We were talking about Slop as a term that was sort of, you know, I think you called the top on Slop in February. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:52:52 So it really was an important word. It became the word of the year. I think the economists did a good job picking that. And then Oxford had rage bait. Oh, yeah, they did. Rage bait. That's two words. I know, I know.
Starting point is 01:53:02 So the term. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, one word put together, I guess. I want to say our word so much, but we need to, introduce it in the right way you can you can you can everybody saying flow state now that's like that's very hot over the last week that's like that's like such an old i feel like that's like a 2018 era yeah but slop is negative rage bait's negative flow state's positive yeah we're moving we're moving i remember i remember when i was like in college when i was in college listening
Starting point is 01:53:30 to uh like tim ferris who's always trying to get in flow state i was like i was like Say, like, Liz Khalifa. Okay. In the Plosteen's good. Yeah. Yeah. Well, yeah, I would encourage you to drop Feed Me's Word of the Year. Okay.
Starting point is 01:53:46 I think you should think about it. I've been thinking of doing some sort of list at the end of the year. Like, the, I was going to do a man of the year thing after GQ did theirs and left you off. Oh, yeah. Crazy. Well, didn't they give it to Sydney, Sweeney instead? Yes. She was at the event.
Starting point is 01:54:02 It's funny. You said... Did you get the invite? There was another... No, we didn't even get the... the invite. No, there was another, you guys would be a my man at the year party. Thank you. Thank you. I appreciate it. I'd make, make the list. What do you have? Are you having a holiday party? I mean, I, we've really, like, dropped the ball on events, like, since the event we
Starting point is 01:54:23 did. Yeah, without your help, it's impossible. Do you, you know, with our event, you were like, we're doing an event. We picked it, like, a rough time and then did nothing else until the day of, but you pulled it off. Did you? It was, it was fabulous. Um, did you guys ever go into any, to any, like, 2016 awesome SF world holiday parties? Like, I feel like the budgets have kind of vanished and things have changed. Vanished? What do you mean?
Starting point is 01:54:49 Holiday parties don't really feel the same. Wait, how so? Maybe I'm talking about the media ones. Oh, okay. Okay, okay, yeah, because, I mean, so that does make sense. Like, the biggest, the biggest... There's more money than ever. And so, yeah, so, like, we're, like, the next two weeks, like, basically the, the,
Starting point is 01:55:06 The holiday parties have begun. Yeah. Tech has obviously, like, taken the, they saw the media companies with their big holiday parties. And I said, like, that's actually our money. Like, we're going to take that. Right. And now, but I was wondering how you would handle room blocks for, as, like, Feed Me, if you're going to put on a big event, how would you handle room blocks? Because there's been a big.
Starting point is 01:55:28 Hotel recommendations. Well, you have a very big team. Yes. So you're saying, how do we transport the team if something was happening? in New York. Yeah. So we travel light. We travel light.
Starting point is 01:55:39 There was just four of us. There was four of us. Yeah. I mean, do people, do, there's like two questions here. One, how do you, how does, how does, who has to put up that many people, lay in a different city? Like, like, if a media company is doing, if they're doing, if they're doing a, I'm somewhat doing a bit.
Starting point is 01:55:57 I think you guys need to open a New York office. We should. Well, this is our New York office. We're partnering with the New York Stock Exchange now. But I'm just saying if you were doing an event in New York and you're inviting people and you're like, I'm going to pay for your accommodation because you're speaking in my event. What would, what hotel would you choose? We need a high, low strategy. We need a high low strategy. What we need is a sleeping bag on the floor of this booth. When we come to New York, we crash in the
Starting point is 01:56:18 booth and we're like, we are grinding harder than anyone in Manhattan. Or like a vice warehouse strategy? Do you guys know the media company in D.C. Punchbowl? Like they own a brown seal. Oh, yeah. That's cool. Their office is there. And I'm sure someone has slept there before. But you might need to, you know, look, check out, like, the real estate. Where would punchbowl go on my media map, which was 100% accurate? And I think I got it touched on. We still are getting, we still are getting notes from people saying, like, you didn't put me on. We did this Axios event last day.
Starting point is 01:56:49 We thought that was like the Magna Carta. It was like. It was so crazy. It was so crazy. It was so crazy because Tyler put it together. We, like, glanced at it. We're like, oh, it looks pretty funny. And you, and then we're like, all right, we'll have Emily.
Starting point is 01:57:03 basically to be the heat shield and put this out in the world. Yeah, that was great. And people tried to make their own and it didn't hit the same, obviously. Well, yeah, I mean, I think that these formats, when they hit, they hit really well and they're very shareable.
Starting point is 01:57:18 Yeah. I would say that stuff can get overdone, but I would be excited to read the Feed Me, holiday gift guide. Also, just the recap of the top 10 moments from the year, pieces that I might not have read or little snippets that I missed, things like that.
Starting point is 01:57:33 like the scoots that you've gotten or interviews, things you learn. I have a question for you guys. Predictions for next year. All of this stuff, like the formats are, they're played out, but they work still. They work and it's just a good way to enjoy information. I like seeing a market on a map. Yes. I like seeing a list of top things, whether it's people or companies.
Starting point is 01:57:53 Like, people like ranking lists and stuff. Yeah, it's very easy to digest. Yeah, you need a little bit of H-Shield, but, you know, that's going to be here. Can I ask you guys a good question? I was at Deal Book this year, and Andrew interviewed Mr. Mr. Beast, and he was playing the videos that he made 10 years ago with, like, Cam Quarters, like early stuff, that video that went viral this week, me in 10 years or something. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:58:14 And I'm curious, are you guys, I got, like, a pang of regret that I'm not capturing more, like, how I built this style stuff. Are you guys capturing that as well? Like, are you guys getting behind the scenes stuff? Yeah, we have a little bit of behind the scene stuff. We've seen it. The thing is, we put our entire studio on the stream. Right.
Starting point is 01:58:32 And so, like, it's in some ways, like, you get a behind-the-scenes look every episode. I want to, like, back in the car on the way home, like. Ben get some of that stuff. Ben brought a camcorder. Crazy about it. Because, like, you could tell, like, if you were trying to just make the documentary about, we actually thought it would just be hilarious to make a two-hour documentary about TEPN and release it in one year.
Starting point is 01:58:54 Like, it just, because you could just put a documentary on Amazon Prize. Totally, yeah. But you could tell the story through the show, pretty effectively. And we have ISOs for everything. And we often have meta conversations like this one about the show on the show. And so right here we're talking about the decision to put, to do behind the scenes. There aren't that many, there aren't that many discussions that we're like, oh, we should have captured that off, off camera. Maybe there's a little bit more where we should be doing stuff. I think that the lower hanging fruit for us is just,
Starting point is 01:59:28 I think you should become one of those live streamers that just spends all day long, walking around and being like, yo, no, no, Emily, all around New York, you just have somebody following you with a camera, you're just doing stories, scooping. I could. I mean, that, like, photo in the New York Times where I'm in the back of the car is kind of that vibe. Yeah, yeah. Yeah, maybe we should do more behind the same shots, but it's just hard to figure out, like, how would we productize that? Because it's a lot of effort. I think it's more for the time capsule. Yeah. But I think for us, like, think about the time capsule is 30 years from now. You'll be able to do a second from every single show forever and you'll be able to see those and memory
Starting point is 02:00:05 yeah there are a lot of stuff it's not exactly like building silently like it's very much right um anyway building very publicly well uh very excited massive year for you congratulations yeah thank you so much for coming in the show you're going to come to new york more yes yes i mean that's exactly there'll be a lot of ipos next year this new york stock exchange partnership is all look we got adam over here he's suited up we'll suit it up uh but thank you yeah thank you so much for Thank you for having me. This is so fun. I'll see you guys. Bye, guys. Bye. Um, well, she hops off. Let me tell you about wander.com. We'll go wander with inspiring views, hotel, great amenities, dreamy beds, top tier cleaning, and 24-7 concierge service. And I'm also going to tell you about eightsleep.com. Exceptional sleep without exception.
Starting point is 02:00:49 Fall asleep faster. Sleep deeper and wake up energized. What are you laughing at? What do you got in the timeline? Can't share that one. Okay. Um, but, Varda is flying its fourth mission home to earth that's exciting Varda has been on an absolute
Starting point is 02:01:05 tearwell Brewe is sharing a photo of the C. Ysouiniba Go W4 somebody was joking about how Varda names their
Starting point is 02:01:16 their Varda names their missions W dash the number they're now on four someone was making the joke that eventually it's going to start sounding like tax forms
Starting point is 02:01:25 like W9 1099 99. I mean, that would be a funny bit. Memorable. Does the W. Stever Winnebago? I know that they have this whole like Breaking Bad theme internally that they like to joke about. But I don't know. Where were we?
Starting point is 02:01:41 T.J. Parker is quoting Granola did crunched, which is a great name for their version of rap. Oh, that is good. T.J. Parker says, you're 2025. Deposed. What did you mean by this? That actually, I mean, a wrapped style product for all of your. meeting notes is extremely interesting for the corporate athlete out there. Really, really, if you're, if you're a corporate athlete and you've put up historic numbers in Renoa, please send us.
Starting point is 02:02:11 Keith is like, I did 3,200 hours in a month. It's just like you can't possibly work 3,000 hours in a month. There are 3,000 hours in a month. Because I know, I know a full work here is 2,000 hours. And if you're working 80 hours a week, that's 4,000 hours. Uh, but it's, uh, yeah, it's, that's, Andrew Reed says when your vendor sends out their forward deployed engineers, they're leaving their flank exposed to a pincer movement by your calvary. What? That's ridiculous with the metaphors.
Starting point is 02:02:43 I love it. Let me tell you about adquick.com. Out of home advertising made easy and measurable. Plan by measure out of home with precision with adquick. Conta announced a $15 million series a yesterday led by Excel and launched prison. agentic reporting that can explain your finances. Yeah. We got Adam Faze in the New York Stock Exchange.
Starting point is 02:03:05 Wow, wow, wow. In the mood. Can we get a suit check real crazy? These are you look fantastic. We have to press up for your stock exchange. Yes, you look great. Thank you so much for doing it. Are you like a tailoring guy?
Starting point is 02:03:17 You get it off the rack. No, I am like you buy a suit and you get it tailored. Okay, okay. That's great. I'm not at the level yet. You can get like a custom suit. Yeah, we're getting that. Getting there.
Starting point is 02:03:27 Well, you had some. some thoughts on the timeline. I do. Yeah. About the news breakdown. What happened today? How did you find out about it? I found out from someone, I'd been in favor of this merger from the day it was announced.
Starting point is 02:03:40 So I think like when there was conversations around who might be the new owner of Warner Brothers, Netflix for me was always the best option. And so I was having dinner with the front two nights ago, and I was saying this. And the next day, last night, he texted me. He's like, it happened. Yeah. I was like, wait, what? And I was shocked.
Starting point is 02:03:54 I really did not actually think this was possible. But I think I think one of the few people on Hollywood. that actually I think this is good for... Okay. Why? Why? You say, you say in Hollywood, but you're here in New York. You know, Hollywood is kind of everywhere you are. Hollywood is a state of mind. The state of mind.
Starting point is 02:04:07 Hollywood is a state of mind. Okay, so, yeah, why is it good? Why is it? I think everyone is still stuck in 2015 and thinks that we are in a battle with Netflix. The reality is like we're in a battle for attention. Okay. With Netta, Google, TikTok, the AI companies, and I think whatever's best for this IP is what's best for Hollywood.
Starting point is 02:04:22 And we as content creators, IP owners? I think it's people that love our industry. I think the IP that Warner Brothers owned and it's so rich. And at the end of the day, Netflix has the most powerful distribution arm in entertainment.
Starting point is 02:04:33 And so when you look at the force of like a K-pop Demon Hunters for instance, which is like arguably the biggest movie of the year. You think that Warner Brothers is the second most
Starting point is 02:04:41 important animated IP library section of Disney. Right? This is Looney Tunes. We're talking Hannah Barberra. We're talking Rick and Morty. These are titles that are gathering dust on platforms
Starting point is 02:04:52 and it would gather dust on Paramount Plus as well. And Netflix now has the IP to match the distribution that they already have. Why do you, you don't think Paramount would be able to put it to you? Not to the power of Netflix. And I think at the end of the day, Netflix has wanted a licensing business for a very long time.
Starting point is 02:05:05 But I think what they figured out is that IP is really hard to make. I think after 10 years, there's like three titles you can actually say are IP. Stranger things. Squid game. And I think you could say, team and hunters. But like they spend $15 billion. But it really is remarkable because I feel like Netflix, I feel a very positive association with Netflix. I've always had a good time with it.
Starting point is 02:05:26 I've always enjoyed it. And then, but when I actually look through, I can name 10 HBO shows that I love and revere as, like, fine art relative to, like, that's some good times on Netflix, but it's not like, oh, you're not watching. You've never seen the Sopranos? Exactly. You're not watching Game of Thrones. Like, it's not the FOMO TV. And I think at the end of the day, we're matching now the most powerful audience in streaming with the greatest library on Earth. So I think, like, in revenue alone. Wait, greatest library on Earth. Hey, I really do think Warner Brothers has the greatest library. When you include HBO as well. Okay, sure. I mean, there's some good stuff, yeah. And I do think when you think about the licensing revenue, they're going to start making for merchandising. I mean, we're talking Netflix now owning Harry Potter.
Starting point is 02:06:05 The merchandising on that alone is the reason why this is the best deal. Okay, okay. Yeah. So you're not worried about the debt. You're not worried that everybody that subscribes to HBO Max is already probably paying Netflix and there's just like. Well, I don't mean it'll be cheaper for all of us, right? I mean, I think you're going to get a little bit more expensive than that.
Starting point is 02:06:23 A little bit more expensive, but then you can just keep bringing it up, Bringing it up. Bringing it up. I mean, I've always, yeah, I've always, always been, like, Netflix has felt like such a good value proposition for so long. I've always been interested to see how people will churn if there's not like a hot show on Netflix at that exact moment that they're engaged with because there's just so much content. Help me wrestle with this. There was someone on the timeline who was saying, like, I cannot imagine another place where Warner Brothers would land. that would be more of a, we'd create more of a monopoly. Right. And they were saying they're going to face antitrust. Yeah, so Jason, Jason Collar, who is a founding CEO of Hulu. That's right.
Starting point is 02:07:08 WarnerMedia CEO. He says, if I was tasked with doing so, I could not think of a more effective way to reduce competition in Hollywood. Reduce competition is particularly an antitrust phrase. Right. But I was saying, like, what about selling it to Disney? Like, if it was, what about selling it to Paramount? At the end of the day, there'd be a lot worse consolidation with a paramount. and Warner Brothers combined merger and a lot more lost jobs.
Starting point is 02:07:29 Okay, so explain that angle, because I was talking about Disney and it just seems crazy to put Superman next to Spider-Man. I think at the end of the day, as much as people usually like to say that they'd like to keep the teams at both studios, at the end of the day, if Paramount and Warner Brothers were to merge, they'd have the same film studio. Oh, sure, sure, sure. And so I think what we're really talking about here is the consolidation for the survival of a 100-year-old industry.
Starting point is 02:07:51 That's going to continue to happen. Sure. But again, we are in a war for attention with the digital platforms that are free to watch, which is YouTube, which is Instagram, which is TikTok. So I think that at the end of the day, we are trying to keep alive an industry that is not thriving, but still is a very powerful industry. I think that this puts it in a much better direction going forward. Yeah.
Starting point is 02:08:10 What about actual physical theaters? It seemed like Netflix was trying to get ahead of some narrative that, you know, movies that you love with the next Harry Potter maybe, whatever that is or the next superman movie. Well, that's Harry Potter, it is about to be. an HBO TV show. That's been in development, which is really funny. So it is going out of Peter. But you understand. Well, you say that, but like it still feels like this deal has a long way to go. Has a long way to go. And it still feels like there's a number of different scenarios. But I think most likely this
Starting point is 02:08:39 is just held up for a few years. So that's probably more likely the option. But I do think we're probably going to look similar to like an AT&T time one or situation. Sure. But on the, on the idea of you know, Netflix choosing to say, hey, yep, Obviously, the next great movie we have, we could just put on Netflix, maybe get a couple more subs. We are going to consciously make an effort to put it into theaters. Do you think that's lip service?
Starting point is 02:09:03 Do you like that plan? How are you feeling about the theater business and where it goes from here? Do you see Netflix putting a pop-up that's like, hey, this isn't movies now, but if you pay $100, you can watch it today. No. But I will say I think this year we've seen Netflix kind of go back on things they've set. I mean, they put K-pop Demon Hunters in theaters and made $19 million in It's been one weekend.
Starting point is 02:09:24 So I do think they understand the force is you can make a digital. There's something about a musical in the theater, too, because everyone's seeing, especially with kids. Yeah, and you sing with a shared audience. Comedy, too, you laugh. But I do think that at the end of the day, Warner Brothers, you know, has to continue having their releases come out in theaters if they're going to want to still make movies with people like Paul Thomas Anderson. And so I think what you will more likely see is the window being shortened. Yep. But I do think that they will have to keep and maintain this sort of theatrical exhibition release.
Starting point is 02:09:49 Yeah, yeah, that's fascinating. I wonder where it goes. there's been a trend that I've been a fan of where the movie theaters, at least in my town, have been reducing the number of seats, but then increasing the amenities and upsells, and they'll try and sell you a whole dinner and drinks, and you get out of there and you spend $200. But I don't get to go to the movies that much, so it's like a fantastic experience. So you like the eating in the theater. I love the eye pick.
Starting point is 02:10:13 I don't like the eating in it. I like the luxury seat for sure. No, no, you bring a bottle of wine over and bring a steak. How is the wine? Is it a good wine? I can't tell, but it doesn't enjoy. Yeah, good job, John. No, no, somebody like the one's fine. I don't know.
Starting point is 02:10:26 But I think they should go all the way. French laundry, put a movie theater in. Yeah. I mean, look, at the end of the day, I think you look at something that the Lincoln Center I miss, which is usually sold out for weeks on end. It's almost impossible to get a seat when you have a one battle after another or a or a deuce movie or something premiering there. And so I think the trend is going to, you will only go to the theater to see an experience.
Starting point is 02:10:45 What do you mean? It sold out like 10 a.m. No way. I mean, I actually tried to go see. I finally saw one battle after another, like weeks after it had come out. And I had the shittiest seats on Earth because I couldn't find seats at any other given showtime. But I do think the trend's going to be the only reason you will go to a theater is to have an experience you cannot have at home. So if that's the ultra-luxury sort of beautiful screening room that you have a steak dinner at, great.
Starting point is 02:11:06 If that's the biggest screen in North America, then that's also amazing too. And I think a lot of this is sort of repeating what the movie experience was 100 years ago. We used to build like palaces to watch movies. And it went to the multiplex in the mall, which really does mirror probably a way. worst version of what you could watch on Netflix at home. And so I'm in support of kind of going back to that original experience and making it something that's just like spectacular as a way of getting people back in those seats. Yeah. What other media stories are you tracking? I mean, this is the biggest one of the week. This is history. This is like actual history.
Starting point is 02:11:39 And I do, I am sensitive to that fact. I think there's a lot of people in Hollywood that are scared about sort of what is next for our industry. You know, we had a very long strike that then came to an industry that was sort of smaller than it was at the beginning of much. But at the end of the day, I do think that this is an exciting story. And I also think that it's going to be, as someone who's a fan of, like, Looney Tunes, for instance, I would rather a newer version of Looney Tunes be on these platforms and having kids watch, like, YouTube kids' AI stuff. Favorite Looney Tunes character. It's a great question. Wiley Coyote. The influx of just pure AI content now to YouTube is actually crazy, specifically in the video
Starting point is 02:12:19 essay kind of documentary space where they're just like hey like i'm going to just generate a deep research report use 11 labs to like basically create an audio track and then just put pictures and some videos over it is actually crazy i've only been uh i like some of the history content on there and i'll just like search for a topic and then if i don't know the channels yet i i i don't know until i'm three minutes in the video and the and the and the video says this this move wasn't just uh this it was that And I'm like, I'm like, I'm like, gotcha. I go say YouTube kids is like one of the scarier things I think we have in culture. Because, like, you might think your kid is safe because they're watching a Miss Rachel video.
Starting point is 02:12:58 It's very cute and innocent. But like the recommended feed, I don't know if you ever spent time with YouTube kids, it's terrifying. I mean, it's like AI slop comes from like Russian. It's like, they're not going to swear. No. And there won't be nudity or its own content, but it's weird. It's weird. And it is like weirdly sensual at times.
Starting point is 02:13:13 Yeah. And I think that like, I don't know when we decided that these tech companies could be the babysitter for your child. but I imagine that we're going to sort of reverse those trends. I completely agree. And I think the meme is already taking hold. Like the whole iPad kid's meme is definitely something where parents are now proud to be like, oh, yeah, my kid doesn't have an iPad. And it's like, if it becomes a status symbol, then all of a sudden everyone does it.
Starting point is 02:13:32 And hopefully the matter. What about social media being banned? There's something in Australia. I'm in favor of this. I think under 16, they're banning social media in Australia, which I think is a great thing. I really do think we're nearing peak sort of consumption. So here's the issue with that. like kids are still going to have devices they're going to use various services they'll use new
Starting point is 02:13:54 networks that have less control i think kids are still going to be social on the internet and if you ban the platforms that actually invest billions of dollars a year you're going to get them on these like places like dark corners of the internet that don't have any scrutiny that don't have any uh whatever you want to call that safety teams whether you're in favor of them or or not i just think this is you cannot ban humans being social they will always always find a way. They'll always find a way, but I mean, you had a very similar conversation around cigarettes, right? And like, we know that the sort of laws we put around cigarettes has safe lies. The counten's
Starting point is 02:14:28 elemental lies. And so I do think that like, regardless of what the solution is. But the comp would be like, it's, you ban cigarettes, which is your physical item that you need, that needs a supply chain. You need it. It's hard to like make a cigarette. We're not banning kids' cell phones. They're still going to have a device. Roll with one hand. John is, John was probably rolling his own. You got a type actually back. Yeah. I'm whittling, whittling a pipe. So I just think, like, you're going to end up in a situation where kids are probably going to make, they're going to just vibe code a crazy social network and it's going to invite in a lot of... Sure. I mean, I think, look, regardless, I think we're nearing that point where we need to have a national conversation about this. I don't think anyone out there can say that, like, kids are better off today as a result of the amount of brain rotten consumption they're doing on these platforms than they were before. And I think, like, on top of that, these platforms are in the business. of getting you more addicted to their slop.
Starting point is 02:15:20 There's a reason why Instagram moved the Reels tab to where messages used to be. Because they know that once you're on the Reels tab, you're probably going to watch a few more Reels. That's $50 billion. I was not on the Reels tab at all. I would just check my messages. You swipe and now it's real.
Starting point is 02:15:34 It's Curse. It's curse. It's cursed. So I just think that like this is a conversation that needs to be parent-led and we don't really have the data yet to show just how harmful it is me. I always just go back to like my experience with video games.
Starting point is 02:15:47 Like, you know, Halo, I think was like M for M for mature. I was not supposed to be able to play it until I was 17. I was probably able to get my hands on it at 14. I think I turned out okay. I'm not obsessed with like killing aliens and I not doing it. No, I'm actually completely fine. Same thing with Call of Duty. I mean, I remember going to game set with my mom and trying to buy GTA 5 and they have to give you that whole warning. Like, do you know this game includes every horrible thing you've ever heard your entire life? And it's like, yeah. Yeah, yeah. So having some sort of warning system, I'm a big fan of MPAA ratings coming to tech products. I've been kind of beating that drum for a couple months, but I like, I think
Starting point is 02:16:22 the MPA ratings, I hope that the MPA figures out a way to work with the tech companies in a way that's like accretive to them, like they get paid or whatever. Because I think that there's just something about if I say, hey, like, like Instagram is R rated, you'll be like, okay, I know what that means. Or like Instagram's PG-13 rated or it's G-rated. Like I know intuitively and I'm already as a parent to decide when, and maybe I want to say, hey, you know, PG-13 rated movies like a little bit earlier because parental guidance is recommended. It's okay. It's like we can, even with video games, I'm a big fan of like cooperative games being a wildly different dynamic than like solo online in like the toxic chat room. Whereas if it's like me and my son
Starting point is 02:17:09 playing a co-op game together like troubleshooting and stuff, even if like the, the, the, the screen images are a little bit like adult. It's like we're collaborating. And so it's a wildly different dynamic than being like lonely and then seeing imagery. I mean, I do think these are just sort of unfortunately some of the problems we had to deal with with user generated content. We're talking about games that were made by hundreds, if not thousands of people that had to go through an approval system to get that rating. There are dangers when it is totally left up to the person of just making whatever type of content you want. Of course, platforms like YouTube are going to police that content and you're not allowed to have, you know, can murder somebody and have that video exist on YouTube.
Starting point is 02:17:47 You can't on X, though. So I think it's just a matter of figuring out, like, where do we want this conversation to go? And, like, what approvals do we want to get the parents? Yeah. Want your take on the Marty Supreme Marketing Campaign? Oh, yeah. Because this feels like, to me, I don't pay much attention to movies, but I'm seeing a lot of Marty Supreme content. That's good.
Starting point is 02:18:08 It's Jordie's film of the year already. I'll get, have you seen it? No, no. I mean, I saw it. I just to see it on Christmas. I went to the premiere. I understood it came on Christmas from that. But it's fucking, I mean, it's amazing.
Starting point is 02:18:21 It's the best movie the year. I will say it's the best movie of the year. And it's Marchesbury. Not to put a brother in the race between the two, but Josh Safdi is the goat. And he's the one. He's a football. It's the best score. It's the best acting.
Starting point is 02:18:34 It's the greatest cast. It's such a phenomenal movie. It's the best score? Really? Yeah. Interesting. Like the game in the ping pong. No, no, no.
Starting point is 02:18:40 Like the best, like the music. Music of the movie. The music of the movie. I'm kidding. 21 to zero. I will say, I don't know. I think, you know, part of it's that they're dealing with Timmy has a, Timothy, not that I'm friends with him, has a very short amount of times. I think he's filming Dune right now.
Starting point is 02:18:54 So I don't think he's that available for press. I think what they're doing is super creative. Totally. I worry that it's a little inside baseball. And I think, like, you could be going more mass culture with this like he did with the Bob Dylan movie by going on Pat McCaffey and all these. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. I will just say the movie's phenomenal. The blimp, I've been trying to get somebody to use a do a blimp.
Starting point is 02:19:11 do a blimp marketing campaign for so long you want to do a blimp yeah uh no i was just pushing like ramp to do a blimp yeah i told the jemini team do a blimp right like blimp's are an amazing asset because you can physically put them over the air like you're putting something and they're just naturally inspiring you look up and it's a blimp it's like amazing they are and i think it was fun that it was connected to the instrument of course it is it is it is it is okay wow best picture wow what's the show of the year the show of the year um honestly I feel like I actually didn't catch up that much with television shows this year. I feel a little
Starting point is 02:19:45 more thought up. I'm re-watching Homeland though, which I... Oh, Homeland? Wow, that's a throwback. It is a throwback. It hits. It is a throwback. It hits. Sort of like Obama-era Sierra... I remember season one having a great, like, cliffanger. I was really into it. You're deeper in the seasons?
Starting point is 02:19:59 No, no, I'm like episode seven season one right now. This is like a new... Oh, and you've never seen it. I was like... I was kind of like in passing when I was a kid, but I don't really think I went through it. No, I remember being really into it when I watched it. Anyway, thank you. Thank you so much for coming out.
Starting point is 02:20:12 Of course. This is fantastic. Thank you for having me. Congratulations on your booth. Look at this. This is crazy. This is crazy. We're here.
Starting point is 02:20:19 We're doing it. Enjoy here. Thank you so much. Have a great rest of your day. I'm going to tell you about adquick.com. Out of home advertising it easy measure. Plan by and measure out of home with precision. Did you know the owner of AI.com is deep seek.
Starting point is 02:20:35 What? Apparently. It could be fake news. It's according to Google AI overview. but uh wait no no no this is this is completely wrong completely wrong because it says it was owned by tech you were youtube mkbhd who acquired it from elon musk that doesn't make any sense that's a complete nonsense um no no no that's like completely unreliable i i'm not buying it i'm not buying it um anyway is there any other news that is worth running through there was a review in the
Starting point is 02:21:06 wall street journal of a book called maintenance maintenance of everything Part 1, Review Making of the Future by Stuart Brand. This is a striped press book. We should try and have them on the show. So it begins with this drama. This is an interesting thing. It's talking about like the process of maintenance and says the author recounts the stories of three contestants in the 1968 Golden Globe around the world solo sailboat race.
Starting point is 02:21:33 One was a former merchant marine whose wooden 32 foot catch was barely adequate for a journey through the punishing Southern Ocean. Make do and mend was his motto. Another competitor was a tech whiz who packed his plywood trimor with electronic gizmos. A dreamy optimist,
Starting point is 02:21:55 he set sail in a rush hoping for the best. The third and the most experienced racer sailed in a purpose-built, steelhold boat, which he maintained with Zen-like discipline. He said he spent his days working calmly at the odd jobs that make up my universe.
Starting point is 02:22:13 And so while this story will be familiar to sailors and others who have read the many books written about the race, Mr. Brand minds the competitor's harrowing experiences for deep lessons. Maintaining the technology that keeps us alive is more than a necessary... Josh Wolfs, remember, he was talking about his thesis for maintenance. I think he was on the show, if I remember correctly. I mean, the idea is like everybody wants to build things. Nobody wants to maintain them. But we have a lot of things in the world that maybe aren't functioning the way that you want them to.
Starting point is 02:22:42 You can throw them out or you can like maintain them and bring them, revitalize them. So I'm excited to read the, did they give a proper review? I mean, the New Yorker is, or the Wall Street Journal is not doing exactly like two thumbs up here. But they are reviewing it and they say, maintenance will engage students of technology, challenge business readers, and inspire home tinkers, who will be happy to learn that fixing gadgets is also a path to enlightenment. Fittingly, the book was initially published in installments online, visible at books.org and works in progress.co. As a kind of editorial DIY project, Mr. Brand tends to jump from topic to topic as he follows his passions. Some might find his digressions
Starting point is 02:23:31 neandering. I certainly wouldn't have a problem with that. And the author of this post, on the Wall Street Journal says, I found them delightful, reflecting that quirky organization, the book ends on a tangent rather than a big wrap-up, but that only raises expectations for part two. And so I think this is a positive review by Mr. Meegs, the former editor of Popular Mechanics, and I see your fellow at the Manhattan Institute. And I think that concludes our show. I found out AI.com. Yeah. Owner is trying to sell it and they're redirecting it to a a bunch of different sites to try to generate. Exactly. And so people are, people, so, so they'll send it to MKBHD for a couple days.
Starting point is 02:24:14 To hope that he posts about it. And then, and then, and then if you're in the analytics and you're Elon at XAI or something, and you're like, oh, wow, I'm getting all this traffic from where. Oh, someone, someone redirected at AI.com to me. I'd be curious how much value. Maybe I should buy it. It is a lot of traffic. I wonder how much traffic it actually gets.
Starting point is 02:24:30 I have no idea. I can't imagine that there's that many people that are just going to AI.com. Are those the best customers? Really? like people haven't made a decision i mean opening i bought chat.com so maybe these short short domains make a lot of sense um i mean uh doesn't uh does google own dot ai or something is they have a i dot studio so i guess they own they own the the tld studio google google doesn't just buy domains yeah i dot com only got 93 000 visits in october according to similar web which is like
Starting point is 02:25:03 that does not seem super valuable um but you could do something finally that you could do something interesting with it. I'm sure that there's a way to make some about it. But it's not worth $100 million in any situation. Yeah. Well, in other funding news, there's 350 million new funding for Castilian, who's been on the show. Oh. And the Wall Street Journal is putting in context, there's alarm over the hypersonic missile gap and it's fueling a startup. Boom. The Pentagon is getting serious about hypersonic weapons, a technology that have eluded the US military for decades. It's looking to startups with no experience, but billions of dollars backing them to fill an increasingly glaring hole in the national arsenal. China and Russia
Starting point is 02:25:47 both have stockpiles of these long range, super fast, maneuverable weapons. The U.S. doesn't, even though officials consider them essential to winning future conflicts as the Defense Department belatedly looks to close that gap, private investment is pouring in and startups, many of which haven't built hypersonic systems at scale. and haven't flown at hypersonic speeds are seeing their valuation soar. The latest is Torrance-based Castilian, which on Friday said it raised $350 million at a $2.8 billion valuation. Wow. Congrats to the team over at Castilian. Great progress. That is. They were, they were around a, I remember they were around like 100 or 200 earlier this year.
Starting point is 02:26:29 Oh yeah, big, big jump. We are in the back of our show, so I will pull up this post from Jason Fried. He's talking about the best back quarter in the last 50 years. What car is this? This is the Ashton Martin Zagotto. Oh, the Zagato, which is probably an underrated car in general and just a fantastic color. Hopefully the team can pull it up. But Jason has incredible taste in all things in life and certainly in cars. But that's our show for today. We'll be back home on the west coast on monday i can't wait and uh thank you for tuning in with us today and yesterday from the nicy thank you uh to lynn chloe and the whole team they're all fantastic and uh we will be back here soon we'll see on monday cheers thank you goodbye

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