TBPN Live - Microsoft Chases the Frontier, SUNO on Fire, Project Solara | Mikey Shulman, Samir Chaudry, Tom Farley, Nikesh Arora, Henri Stern, Alex Good
Episode Date: June 3, 2026(00:35) - Microsoft Chases the Frontier (05:00) - Project Solara (16:19) - Mikey Shulman, representing Suno, discusses the company's recent achievement of raising over $400 million, led by ...Bond, highlighting significant traction and progress in user engagement and retention. He emphasizes the importance of retention as a key metric, noting that improvements in the product have led to increased user engagement and a broader audience. Shulman also addresses the evolving perception of AI-generated music, suggesting that as more people experience the product, acceptance grows, and he envisions a future where AI tools like Suno become integral to creative processes in the music industry. (35:20) - 𝕏 Timeline Reactions (43:28) - Samir Chaudry is an American entrepreneur and co-host of the YouTube channel "Colin and Samir," where he interviews creators and discusses the creator economy. In the conversation, he explores the evolving collaboration between YouTube creators and Hollywood, emphasizing the emergence of internet-native filmmakers and the significance of community-driven intellectual property. He highlights the success of horror and animation genres on YouTube, noting their potential for adaptation into feature films, and underscores the importance of development support for creators transitioning to larger projects. (01:08:47) - Tom Farley, CEO of Bullish and former President of the NYSE Group, discusses his career trajectory from traditional finance to the digital asset sector, highlighting his early investment in Coinbase and the evolving role of blockchain in financial markets. He reflects on the maturation of the cryptocurrency industry, noting its transition from speculative hype to a more stable and institutionalized market, and emphasizes the potential for blockchain technology to revolutionize global securities by enhancing transparency and efficiency. Farley also addresses the challenges and opportunities in integrating digital assets with traditional financial systems, underscoring the importance of regulatory clarity and technological innovation in driving future growth. (01:32:48) - Nikesh Arora, an Indian-American business executive born in 1968, has been the chairman and CEO of Palo Alto Networks since June 2018, following senior roles at Google and SoftBank. In the conversation, Arora discusses the challenges AI models like Anthropic's Mythos face in cybersecurity, emphasizing issues such as high false positive rates and the lack of real-time enforcement capabilities. He also highlights the importance of focusing on detection and remediation over mere protection, given the evolving AI-driven threat landscape. (01:56:04) - Henri Stern, co-founder and CEO of Privy, a blockchain infrastructure company, discusses his participation in the Money 2020 fintech conference in Amsterdam, where Privy launched new products in partnership with Deel to enable contractors to receive stablecoin payments globally. He highlights the growing adoption of stablecoin cards that allow users to spend stablecoins directly through traditional payment networks like Visa and MasterCard, facilitating seamless transactions for merchants. Stern also notes the significant adoption of stablecoins in regions like Latin America and Southeast Asia, while acknowledging the regulatory restrictions in countries such as China that limit stablecoin usage. (02:11:13) - Alex Good, a former Army officer and experienced professional in finance and technology, has transitioned into the crypto and AI sectors, focusing on developing protocols that integrate these fields. He discusses the challenges at the intersection of crypto and AI, including increased hacking incidents due to AI's ability to evaluate human-written code, and emphasizes the need for secure protocols to prevent unauthorized transactions. Good also shares his "doom thesis," suggesting that AI might accelerate the emergence of surveillance states, prompting capital to move into privacy-focused cryptocurrencies like Zcash. TBPN is made possible by:Ramp - https://ramp.comPublic - https://public.comCisco - https://www.cisco.comConsole - https://www.console.comCrowdStrike - https://www.crowdstrike.comFigma - https://www.figma.comMongoDB - https://www.mongodb.comNYSE - https://www.nyse.comRailway - https://railway.comShopify - https://www.shopify.com/Follow TBPN: https://TBPN.comhttps://x.com/tbpnhttps://open.spotify.com/show/2L6WMqY3GUPCGBD0dX6p00?si=674252d53acf4231https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/technology-brothers/id1772360235https://www.youtube.com/@TBPNLive
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You're watching TVPN.
Today's Wednesday, June 3rd, 2026.
We are live from the TVPN Ultramome,
the Temple of Technology, the Fortress of Finance.
Capital of Capital.
Wow, that's loud.
Ramp.com.
Time is money saved both.
These use corporate cards, bill pay accounting a whole lot more all in one place.
We're having fun today.
We got the air horn.
Yeah, we got a physical air horn.
And when Nick fired that thing off unexpectedly, it really did some damage.
But once you're prepared for it, it's pretty satisfying.
Pretty satisfying.
Pretty satisfying.
Anyway, Microsoft Build is satisfying for a number of reasons.
They're in the foundation model game.
They train a bunch of models.
MAI, Code 1 Flash.
MAI Thinking 1, the company's first coding and reasoning models, respectively,
which several speakers played up as super efficient on a cost per token basis in the ROI.
Race, you've got to be efficient.
Microsoft Scout is an agent.
OpenClaw Pilled now, powered by OpenClaw, open source technology that operates across cloud,
desktop, and web connecting to Teams, Outlook, OneDrive, and SharePoint, and to the data that powers
your day, including chats, emails, calendar, contacts, good news if you're all in on the Microsoft
ecosystem. And then we talked about this a little bit with the Jensen announcements from
Nvidia. They're going into the PC market more. The Surface RtX Spark dev box is sort of the answer
to Apple's Mac Mini, custom silicon designed for Agenic AI.
There's also a new Android-based OS operating system,
designed to run agents instead of apps called Project Solara.
And there's a pretty cool demo, so we should play the video.
The Verge always does a cutdown of these keynotes.
They take you through Microsoft Build in 25 minutes,
but we're only going to play a couple minutes of this
because it's a long presentation.
Today, one of the things that I'm really excited about,
in order to tap into all this compute power,
is to expand the scope of Windows ML and Windows AI.
We are also announcing two very cool new models
that are all going to run on Windows inbox.
Okay, let's jump to eight minutes,
because this is where Sauta introduces Project Salaura,
which Ben Thompson said,
Project Salaura is, to be very clear,
vaporware at this point,
although the company did show real devices,
and has signed up Qualcomm and Media Tech as chip partners.
It's also extremely compelling.
So Ben Thompson likes it.
Let's listen to Sotan Adele introduce it.
Two very broad categories.
The first is stationary and the second is portable.
The first device is designed for your desk and it's built on Media Tech Silicon.
Concept cards for business.
Just walking up to the device securely signs you in,
giving you direct access to your agents.
And Amazon and Google Home have similar products at this point with screens for
more smart home.
And even
act by delegating tasks to your agents
with a simple tap or
just using your voice.
It even supports experiences
like handoff between devices.
Still tricky to imagine
when you wouldn't want to use your phone
for this.
Since people carry the phones everywhere,
firing off an agent
isn't the most cumbersome thing.
But I do love
consumer hardware. So I'm excited to see if there's
unique things that you can do only with this product.
A lightweight form factor designed for agent interactions.
This is a very interesting thing.
It's not a phone.
It looks more like a smart key card or badge.
Yeah, it even has his face on it.
Like it's a badge that you'd wear.
I tap to unlock the device and I've access now to all my agents in a secured manner.
And would you look at that, I already have a task.
And it says, gather content for your social media posts.
Sorry if I missed it.
Why would you want this over having an application?
On your phone?
I'm not sure.
That's a good question.
Does anyone have an answer?
There's a new meme, the two-phone meme.
Maybe some people feel left out.
They want a second device.
There's like the dumb phone route where you don't want everything in the phone,
but you do want to kick off agents that go do things for you.
You want to be more like delegating instead of like consuming.
Like you're not going to be scrolling TikTok on that thing.
But you might be firing off work tasks that you can come to later on your desktop and sort of lock in on.
I don't know.
Yeah.
So I could I could prompt it and say write a 20,000 word message to John telling him that I would like to hang out on Saturday afternoon.
Make sure it's easy enough to digest so his agent can.
summarize it into a few bullet points.
Yeah, ideally just one sentence
want to hang out.
Let's see. Ben Thompson broke it down a little bit.
He said, first off, note the framing.
The PC is old tech with agents.
What about new tech uniquely enabled by agents?
And note the classic Microsoft hook,
could that new tech sit on top of the new platform?
So he says, there was one brief moment
in the promotional video that preceded his appearance
that made the concept click for him.
The problem with wearable devices is the interaction model.
They are only useful when you are interacting with them,
when the human is in the loop.
But being in the loop with a wearable
is annoying and inefficient.
What is being demonstrated here, however,
is a brief interaction, and then the agent doing work
in the background.
In other words, the usefulness happens in the cloud
without the human needing to be involved
because an agent is doing work.
That's what Ben Thompson finds compelling.
On one hand, you can make the case
that of course Microsoft would be interested
in a device model that uses the cloud as a platform,
given that Microsoft doesn't control
mobile device like the iPhone. What occurs to Ben Thompson, however, is that even if Microsoft
doesn't succeed with Project Solara, this model where the cloud is the hub and multiple devices
are the spoke, instead of the phone being at the center, is clearly a better one for agents.
Agents work best in the cloud and across apps and devices. Yes, the phone might be one of those
devices, but when it comes to agents, it shouldn't be the hub because it's too locked down.
He says, again, this is vaporware and very much in Microsoft's interest. So take Project
Solara with an appropriate grain of salt. It's a vision of the future, however, that does make a lot of sense,
particularly in an enterprise scenario where all of the context and compute is already in the
cloud, and Project Solar is focused on enterprise, not consumer, so you can mandate effectively
that all of your employees carry these as their badges, and then they have a sort of like secure
on-ramp to their enterprise agents in the cloud that all run in the Microsoft Azure ecosystem,
in the Microsoft 365 ecosystem.
He says it's also something completely different
from the past and fits Ben Thompson's thesis
that in the age of AI, thin is in
because the compute is so constrained
to the data center on device compute
is maybe going to happen,
but there's a lot that you can do in the cloud
that you can't do locally.
So just have a very thin client
and that little key card device
is basically the thinnest client you can have.
It's sole purpose
is to just interface.
It looks a lot like the Rabbit R1, sort of that form factor, which a lot of people were taking a little victory lapse on behalf of the founder of the Rabbit R1 saying he was just a little bit too early because the actual decision to offload all the compute to the cloud, do something useful up there, have a very minimal device that maybe you could take out with you, that could do some basic stuff.
But it's always hard because people like the phone.
They like being able to just watch a full movie on their phone if they want.
And you never know.
Has anybody been running down making a smart AI enabled cowboy hat?
That'd be a good one.
You potentially have a lot of room up here for onboard some local.
Potentially.
Right?
Maybe you could build a Starlink into it.
I feel like you would not wear the smart cowboy hat.
Just frying your brain with the Mac Mini on your head.
You're going to be against that.
There's no way you're picking that up.
Underexplored hardware platform.
Whether you're bullish or bearish on my,
Microsoft, you gotta get on public.com.
Investing for those to take it seriously.
Stocks, options, bonds, crypto, treasuries, and more with great customer service.
Alex Heath, friend of the show, summed up the embrace of OpenClaw in a post.
Scout is what it's called.
Microsoft's first proactive AI agent for co-pilot buried the news that Sotcha Nadella is fully embracing OpenClaw.
When Scout is released more widely, this summer early powered by OpenClaugh and Microsoft will contribute to its security.
security guardrails back to the project's open source ecosystem.
A lot of people that got excited by OpenClawe sort of saw the rough edges, and we saw this with the meta-a-I, the Instagram account theft that was going on.
You can imagine that if you have something that's as powerful as OpenClaught, it's still constrained within your Microsoft ecosystem, all your cloud accounts.
You could do things that are useful.
Pull together spreadsheets, PowerPoints, databases, all this different stuff, but not run.
roughshod over everything. And so if you're all in on one walled garden, the walls are
actually somewhat safe. I don't know. Totally. So Microsoft getting in bed with OpenClaw makes a
lot of sense, says Alex Heath. You only welcome a growing open framework onto your turf
when you're confident you can control the ground it stands on. In this case, Microsoft
is doing what it does best, being a platform company rather than trying to own too much of the
stack. Microsoft also gets to ride the agent wave in a way its main hardware rival won't. Even
with OpenClawned's initial buzz driving a surge in Mac Mini purchases, it's highly unlikely
Apple will create a white glove experience for Microsoft, for OpenClaw like Microsoft has with Scout.
And so Apple, you know, you're in the MacMany, you're in an open claw world.
One of the primary beneficiaries, the OpenClawn, in terms of their MacMany.
They really did sell out.
They really have sold out all over the place.
But not going to embrace it.
Yeah.
They just don't have the enterprise motion necessarily.
Well, that, that, but also the security, privacy.
Yeah, but WWC is next week, and who knows?
Maybe we will see an open-claw competitor.
Maybe we will see something that's, you know, a great leap forward for Apple in the AI and the Apple intelligence feature set.
I don't know.
My predictions are something that look a lot more just like, okay, Siri works now.
It can do the basic shortcut integrations.
It can answer questions at a near frontier level.
It's running Gemini under the hood.
And so it's probably going to be pretty good at just answering basic questions, doing basic things on your phone.
I'm not expecting it to go and like warm its way into every other app like OpenClaw has.
So there's a few other observations that Alex Heath had from Microsoft Build.
Nadella is trying to tamp down the data center backlash.
You know it's getting bad out there when a MAG7 CEO is debunking water usage fears.
The quote was, in fact, the daily water usage over the course of the entire years, roughly equivalent to what a single restaurant would use.
So he's giving more context there.
The copilot super app is not ready.
Alex Heath showed off what the new autopilot tab with Scout looks like, but it wasn't shown on stage.
So that is delayed as it rolls out to become the co-pilot super app that will sit alongside all of the Microsoft apps.
Microsoft is still not at the frontier, according to Alex Heat.
He says it didn't make a big deal out of the benchmarks for its new family of models.
There were other comps.
They were comping it to older models for Anthropic and OpenAI.
There were obviously some great cost-benefit trade-offs.
It's important to be in the game.
Do you have more context on how these models are performing?
Yeah, I think the interesting comparison here is not with Frontier Labs,
but I think with meta, because they had Muse Spark pretty recently.
And the thinking model, like MAI Thinking 1,
It's actually quite competitive with the meta, which is interesting because I feel like I just have not heard that much about the MAI team.
Obviously, they have Mustafa, and that's kind of like the big name at Microsoft.
But like meta, you hear like over and over.
Because they went through all the coaching talent wars.
Nat Friedman, Daniel Gross, Alex Wong.
You know, you have so many people that have like, you know, have done podcasts to have aura and have clout and the industry coming together.
Not to mention like the actual researchers that they recruited.
Yeah.
So it's interesting that they're actually like, these are pretty.
models.
The researchers would actually be more important.
Yeah, but in terms of like building,
building hype around whatever you're working on,
like meta has definitely built the aura of MSL and TBD Labs.
There's a whole article about Alex Wang and then in the journal
or the Financial Times today.
We can get to that later.
But Alex, he says, agents are the new OS.
I'm not sure if an AI access badge with a screen will do it.
He's skeptical.
Are you putting on the badge?
I'll throw on the badge.
I would throw on the badge for a little bit.
I wonder how often I would actually reach for it versus a phone.
Also, I'm not, although I love PCs and I love Windows for gaming, I don't, I've never been like a run my whole life in Outlook and Microsoft teams and all of that.
So I feel like I would get 1% of the benefit of that.
Like, you've got to be all in on that ecosystem.
You've got to be pushing your chips in.
For sure, for sure.
Well, we will keep tracking that.
What else is going on?
Okay, live reading, reacting thread from StoCASM.
There's a ton to go through on MAI thinking.
Was there anything interesting in this thread?
StoCASM says, I also have to wonder how much of this report is informed by what they know about IP, open AI's IP.
So, of course, they have access to intellectual property from Open AI for training,
and they have access to the models.
But one of the things that kept coming up in this presentation is that Microsoft,
is sort of touting like a very clean pre-training data set
so that you as a company who are using this model
can be very confident that it's not going to get you
in any trouble down the road
because if the New York Times doesn't want to be in there
or Harry Potter books don't want to be in there,
it's not in there because Microsoft has done
all the hard work to sanitize all the training data.
And they also made a very big point
that they did not distill on another lab,
which has been accusations that have been thrown around a bunch
during the Elon Musk OpenAI lawsuit, Elon was on the stand and mentioned that he might have, or XAI folks might have done some distillation on either Anthropic or Open AI models at one point.
And so that was sort of like not the cleanest thing and might lead to problems down the road.
Microsoft's saying, hey, we're getting out in front of this.
There's no distillation involved at all.
And then they also launched a lot of features for companies to be able to find,
tune these models.
Slightly different than what Amazon does.
Amazon does mid-training.
They give you a checkpoint of the pre-trained,
and then you can add data that is relevant to your business
and fine-tune it from a mid-training checkpoint.
Microsoft is offering more of a reinforcement learning, RLE, post-training step,
but all of these lend themselves to there is a model
that has a bunch of great capabilities at the baseline
and good price per performance,
and it runs on Azure, and they've already optimized it for the systems.
and then you can take it, tweak it, fine-tune it,
and then you can deploy it on the same hardware,
and you know it's going to run,
you know how much it's going to cost.
Burr token, you're good to go,
but it's going to answer your particular questions,
work for your particular business a little bit better.
At least that is the pitch.
That is the hope.
We will see what adoption is like.
Microsoft clearly has a strong go-to-market team,
strong enterprise sales team.
So we will hear how this is being deployed
in the near future.
Before we bring in our first guest to the show,
let me tell you about CrowdStrike,
Your business is AI.
Their business is security.
The crowd strikes,
to close AI, and stops breaches.
I don't know if you can actually hear that.
The filter might be a little bit too much.
But anyway, we can deal with that later.
We are very, very fortunate to be joined by Mikey from Suno.
Welcome to the show.
How are you doing?
On a massive day.
You're here live with us in the TVPN Ultronome.
Amazing that you can be here.
How you doing?
I'm doing great.
I'm excited to be here.
This place is awesome.
Thank you.
Give us the news.
What happened today?
Hit the gong.
Hit it.
Hit the gong, tell us what happened.
And then come back and get us.
And then come back and tell us.
Whoa.
Wonderful.
I like how it shakes the entire camera.
That was by far the strongest hit from a guest.
Yeah.
A lot of people come in and they don't want to break the gun.
It's almost like you had a bit of practice.
It's meant to be.
You told me to go at it. I went out.
I know.
That was perfect.
Well, it's a good day for that.
That's the new bar.
So take us through.
Why are we hitting the gong?
We're hitting the gong.
We raised a little over $400 million.
A lot out of today.
Very exciting.
Fun.
led by Bond, a history of investing in really category defining consumer businesses,
which is really, really cool.
Lots of new investors joining all of our old investors participating, so really, really excited about that.
IVP, Forerunner, Union Square, Matrix, quiet, light speed, Menlo.
Wow, Murderer's Row. Good job.
Great, man.
What unlocked this round? Why do this round?
Are you spending a ton on inference?
Are you spending a ton on training?
Is there a huge cost, or is there just so much traction that that unlocked?
the round, like, what's the thesis?
Really, really more of the latter.
There's been a ton of traction and a ton of actually progress since the last time I was
on.
And so just to zoom out here.
Where is the company right now in terms of the products?
So every time we release new products, we release new models, more people come to the product,
but more people stick around.
And so the engagement metrics that we track, let's say it's usage retention, what fraction
of our users come three or more days a week.
session time.
All of these are getting really, really good.
All of these are up like about 50% in the last six months, which is huge.
And this is just like constant making the product better, making more people fall in love with being creative.
And so it's been incredible to see.
And yeah, it's like a lot of hard work from the team, but it's really paying off.
What is the North Star metric on retention?
Like Dow Mao, monthly churn?
Like, how are you thinking about actually, like, what is the correct metric to measure for your particular
business. You know, yeah, different businesses are going to be different. We like retention.
I think all of these are kind of very, very similar. The thing that's like really important here
is just to remember, yeah, like revenue is a trailing metric for how good is your product.
And retention is really the best way to think about people are coming to my product over and
over again. They're falling in love with it. There's no real hacking that, basically.
Yeah. And are you early or are you far enough along to see like smiling curves in the retention?
Yeah, for sure. So it's been really exciting.
So also there's two retensions, there's usage retention, there's paid retention.
So remember we have a pretty generous free tier.
And so our free users are also still coming back over and over again.
So all signs point to, I think the thing that we've thought about for a long time, which is everybody's creative.
Everybody will enjoy being creative if we can make the experience right for them.
And we've known this deep down because when you demo the product for somebody, you take out your phone and you guide them through having that magical moment, their eyes light up.
And so it's really around how do we let people do that themselves and really feel creative by themselves.
Walk me through the paid tier philosophy.
Single tier, like, do you have, like, are you thinking or do you already have, like, ultramid pro plans where someone can spend a lot of money if they're using this as like more of a prosumer tool, enterprise, like how, how striated is the monetization at this point?
It's a great question.
I think the short answer is we haven't really.
really changed our pricing all that much in a long time. And so it might not even be appropriate.
But what we have now is there's a free tier, there's a $10 month here, there's a $30 month year.
A $30 month year gets you not only more usage, but some different power features.
And then, you know, AI is this weird thing. It doesn't really fit neatly into SaaS pricing.
And so a lot of sub-companies are trying different things. A lot like everyone else, when you reach
your cap, you can buy overages. And so we've got lots of people who they spend hours and hours a day
on it and they hit their caps and they keep paying for more. Yeah, it's such a weird dynamic in the
modern era where you will have customers that are effectively gross margin negative potentially,
depending on exactly where you set the thresholds, and then you will have customers that are,
they want the best product, they're happy to pay, but they come once a month with something.
And they're probably much higher gross margin. And there's just this blend because we're in this,
like, you know, real marginal cost era, no longer, the zero marginal cost era. You know, a few things there,
like actually our margins are pretty okay.
And music models are small.
And so it's not really the same cost structure.
But the other thing is it's really interesting.
There's not really a lot of consumer businesses being built right now
and certainly not a lot of consumer entertainment businesses being built right now.
And there's a real different, I think, interaction that the average user has
when I'm sitting down at cowork and my boss is paying for it.
And so I don't really think or care about how much money this is costing me.
And when you're building for consumer entertainment and you're paying for it and it's,
not for doing a task, it's actually for enjoying yourself, you actually do think a lot about it.
And so, A, it makes our jobs harder. We actually have to deliver more. But B, you want to make sure
that you provide the right experience where you're not constantly thinking about, oh, gosh, how many
credits do I have left before I hit the pay well? If Ben Thompson were here, he'd probably ask you
about advertising. I feel like consumers want to be entertained. They don't necessarily want
to be productive. It's very hard to get consumers to pay at scale. Obviously, the AI era is
like a big narrative violation of that because there's tens of millions of consumers that are paying
for AI tools across the entire industry. But there does seem to be a limit to how many consumers
will pay even $10 a month. Are you thinking about trading credits while you're waiting for a
song to generate ads? How are you thinking about that? We're not thinking at that scale yet. I actually
kind of disagree with Ben here. I mean, he's awesome. He's brilliant. But I just,
I just think about like 800 million people about stream music,
a little less than half of them pay for it.
That's actually a lot of people.
Like 300 million people pay for streaming music.
That's a lot.
I just think that like the history here.
So there's billions and billions of people that don't listen to music online whatsoever.
Is it really only 800 million?
Accounts.
Or is that accounts on Spotify that does maybe count YouTube?
That's, to my knowledge, that's like Spotify, YouTube, Apple,
and maybe like five others.
There's like a billion final record you use now, too.
Vinyl's going to make a big comeback.
I mean, I think as we change the place of music and culture,
as the product gets better, we change the place that music has in culture,
we see these creative moments happening.
And so you see them digitally now,
where maybe you saw the Puerto Rico song,
where you saw an amazing creative trend
where people are making, like, their cringy text messages into songs
and they go viral on TikTok.
And I think you'll start to see that penetrate, actually,
the IRL world as well.
And so I'm long vinyl.
Yeah.
I was talking to someone who wanted a job at Suno, and they were asking me what I thought about the business.
And obviously I've been bullish for a long time, like this new entertainment form factor.
People love the product.
You guys have real revenue.
You're growing really quickly.
My unsophisticated view was that I told the person, I can easily imagine this as like a $10 billion company.
it's hard for me to see the world in which this is a $100 billion company.
Why am I wrong?
I know you're insanely ambitious.
You're not going to 2X from here and then be like,
jobs done everybody.
No, the job's not done.
I think this is one of those things, actually.
I think you've just been hanging around investors too much,
which is the thing that you know, you have to be right for a long time
while a lot of people are wrong.
And the thing is, every revenue scale we hit, every usage scale,
we hit the question it's like, but how many people really want to create? And that was, we got those
questions at $100,000 in revenue. We get those questions at $100 million in revenue. And the
lived experience we have playing with the product with people, but also the metrics and looking
at our growth curves and seeing that every time we make the product better, yes, things inflect
up, but we appeal to a broader and broader audience. And so I feel very deep. Yeah, I mean, the same,
the same thing would have been said with early creative tools on the internet. Absolutely.
was, you know, how big, you know, with Figma was always how big could Figma be?
You know, there's only so many designer, professional designers.
Then, of course, like, the rest of the organization, same thing with Canva.
I'm sure a lot of people passed early on because they just thought, like, yeah, there's just not that many people relatively that do design.
And then, of course, like, you make the tools more accessible.
And so, so anyways.
So, yeah, and so there's a couple things here.
One is, I think, actually, we'll have a very large fraction of those 300 million.
subscribers to streaming, also subscribe to
Suno in the long run. But the other thing that's amazing is that
for the first time, in a long time in music, there's innovation on the
end user experience. And so you can have something where
there are multiple products out there. Like right now, the end user
experiences for music all look the same. They all look like a
streaming provider. It's just like I have all of the world's music living
on my phone and I can listen to it. And that's it. In the future, when you can
do more things and play with it, you probably subscribe to multiple
video games, you probably subscribe to multiple video streaming platforms. Why can't you subscribe
to multiple music things? And I think the answer is in 10 years you will. Do you think Apple would
ever make a play in this space? I think lots of people are going to make plays in the space.
It's almost validating to see that people finally think of music as a growth area again.
But again, I think that there's so much room for innovation here. There's so much greenfield
to build upon that I'm actually really excited. Yeah. Can you take me through the story of the
Puerto Rico song? What happened there? Like, what were the key
inflection points, actually? I don't know is the answer. You know, this is like a song
from a creator, and it hits the right cultural moment and the right vibe. And
I don't want to say it's a good song or it's a bad song, but it is a platform
where so many people can be creative on top of it. And that is really fulfilling to see.
And that's stuff that, it's like new use cases for music that haven't been around for a minute.
Is AI music becoming less controversial, or are there still
people discovering it and getting angry.
Because I could imagine there was a wave over the last two years where people were like, wait,
they're making music with AI, this is meant to be a human creative pursuit or whatever
criticisms they've thrown at it.
But I imagine over time people start to realize that these are fun, entertainment products
and tools.
And before you form an opinion, you should just try using it and form an opinion based on your
experience, not, you know, internet comments or things like that. But my expectation is that
it will actually become less controversial year over year as it sort of normalizes. It is definitely
becoming less controversial. There are still plenty of people who have preformed opinions and then,
you know, actually playing with the product is the best way to change their minds. The thing
that has become apparent in the music industry is that so many people are using it without
talking about it. And as people realize that everybody knows, that everybody knows, it certainly
normalizes there. And then as a consumer, either when you play with the product and you realize
how fun it is, or when you realize, actually, there's some AI music in the music that I love,
all of a sudden you're not so anti-AI. I think this is a lot like people being anti-AI, and then
they realize that chat GPT can help them with their homework, and they kind of soften a little bit.
As a useful tool, I mean, Martin Scorsese came out yesterday in a Black Forest Labs video,
talking about the value of AI in the filmmaking process,
but the video demos, we'll watch it later on the show,
but it demos sort of like a pre-visualization step,
almost like a storyboarding step.
He's describing this alpine town,
and it's generating visuals for him.
He's not taking it end to end.
Of course, that's happening more and more,
but I think having a filmmaker like Scorsese kind of step up
and say,
this is useful. I can see this working.
Absolutely. There's an analog in music, actually, which is that you'll have songwriters
make beautiful songs, and instead of making demos for an artist, they can make low fidelity
songs, like low fidelity productions, which are demos, with Suno, so much easier.
Yeah.
And it will get ripped out and produced without AI or with minimal AI when it's produced
for the last time.
Yeah.
Do you think there's still an opportunity for major artists to be a first mover in the space?
we were talking, I think, a mutual friend of the three of us,
and I was telling him he loves Suno.
He uses it all the time.
And I was telling him, like, why don't you just be the first one
to take, like, a proper leap and do this?
And, like, the first person that goes and says, like,
hey, this is okay, it's not so scary.
I used it in the creative process.
We still use a bunch of, you know, traditional producers,
sing, you know, songwriters, et cetera.
I think that person will get a lot of credit
and potentially, you know, a lot of attention
will obviously be polarizing,
but then the fourth, fifth, sixth mover
won't really get any potential benefit.
It'll just be normalized by that point.
I think that's totally possible.
Like, we've, you know, there are people,
there are a few people who are outspoken about it,
but I don't know if we've had, like, the moment yet.
I want, like, the project.
Yeah.
Somebody has to make, like, a hit record.
There have been, I think,
And they have to go out and say they have to be just very up front.
And what I want is them to document the whole process.
Like I want a video camera.
How much is enough Suno in there, actually?
That's the whole point.
It's like a guitar might have only been like one little riff in a song.
And it could have been some originally like somebody recorded it on their phone.
And then they brought it into the studio.
And then like maybe it got transformed and made with the difference.
Yeah, exactly.
And so to me, to me, there just needs to be, it's always going to be a spectrum, right?
There's going to be songs that are heavily Suno, but I would expect for like major artists,
even if like the original kind of idea or some element of the song was made on Suno, like you said,
it'll just get transformed and adapted and evolved.
And so I think it's just positioning it as not like a replacement for anything,
but another kind of individual artist in the room,
another instrument in the room that's contributing to the project.
Here's how I think of it.
We haven't hit that moment,
but at some point somebody will really document
and celebrate the use of these tools in making things.
Like, we're already in a lot of very popular music,
but at some point somebody will really do that actually proactively,
and that will be a huge cultural moment.
And then the next amazing cultural moment will be
an artist releases an album that is meant
to be sunoed by their fans.
And this is the new format.
This is the thing that will pull people in
that deepens the artist-fan connection.
And that will be a very, very important moment.
How spiky is Suno's intelligence?
I want to know about the training process.
And we know you have to leave.
So final question.
Maybe this is the last question.
But there's this famous story about,
I think Andre Carpathie told it about like GPT4,
4-1, some iteration,
where at a certain checkpoint, it was terrible at chess.
And then all of the AI researchers
just were really interested in chess.
And they were like, there's no reason it should be bad at chess.
And so they added a bunch of chess training data.
And then all of a sudden, the models got pretty good at chess.
And it seems like we're in this spiky intelligence race
where coding's really valuable.
There's a lot of money there.
So the models are getting better at coding.
But if you look at the models, like,
it doesn't really feel like they're getting
that much better at copywriting right now,
because that's not where they're
the boom is, but they're getting really good at coding. And I'm wondering if you're seeing, like,
okay, there's an opportunity for us to nail jazz in the next iteration or us to nail
EDM in this iteration. Like, is it, like, what fingerprints is the team leaving on the model
versus just we're scaling up and it's getting better at everything and there's surprises and it's
very indeterminate? We actually try not to leave our fingerprints on it. And we have a, like,
the approach is we should not be the arbiters of good and bad music, you know, like a file corruptor,
or low quality is sound recording.
But like, you can go and you can listen to a song
that has 10,000 YouTube plays or 10 million YouTube plays
and you won't actually be able to tell the difference.
And so we should not be the arbiters of that.
The thing that's different here also is that in the chess
and the coding examples, there are objective right answers
and that's why the models are so good at getting spiky there.
Yeah.
Music has no right answers.
Yeah.
There's no verified rewards.
Not at all.
Yeah.
And so all of those techniques actually don't work.
nearly as well. You can't do RLVR. So we're actually in the regime where it's much less spiky and actually when we find a hole, an anti-spike, then we actually try to fill that in.
It's not like we're amazing at jazz. It's like you suck at country and now we have to go and figure that one out.
Okay. Last question. We'll let you get out here. What about adding on to the viral fuel when I hear about turn your text messages into a Suno song? I think, why can't I just screenshot my text messages and then you edit the video for me and I get a viral format? That feels like, you.
very tool you see, very like each video format's going to be a whole process for you.
It's going to be hard to like one shot the full end to end.
But I want, I want the Slack integration.
I want a Suno song at the end of each day.
Yeah.
Why weren't you on the stage at Microsoft build?
I want my, I want the workday at the office summarize.
You want a work day integration.
No, I want the Slack summarize.
And I want to be able to listen to an hour long song on my drive home about what's happening at work.
We'll try to make that happen.
We're not doing a workday integration.
But I will say the thing that's amazing is actually this is a platform where people are creative on top of it.
Of course.
And so we're not going to come up with the right cringy text message video.
Sure.
Somebody is going to do that.
Well, that's a challenge for you at home.
Go make the cringy text message.
Go make the workday integration.
Prove Mikey wrong.
He says he won't build it.
You can go and build the workday integration yourself.
Well, I want to react to some time.
Imagine keeping up at work through music, John.
It'd be fantastic.
What's more powerful than that?
You know what's more powerful than that?
Console.com.
Console builds AI agents that automate 70% of ITHR finance support.
Giving employees instant resolution for access requests and password resets.
So we can talk about the, there's a bunch of funny posts in the time when we've got to go through before our next guest, Samir from Colin Samir joins us to talk about Hollywood.
You can tell when a coworker got nothing going on outside of work.
Why is that in here?
220,000 people like this.
Are you, is this, did you put this in to kind of sub-tweet me, Tyler?
I didn't send this in.
The team always asked Monday morning.
What did you do this weekend?
I always have the same answer.
I always have the same answer.
Anyway, there's some news on the timeline about GOP rep and Michigan Senate candidate Mike Rogers.
there's an actual photo from the campaign trail and then a photo put out by the staffer.
Let's compare these.
It's one of those, can you tell, can you spot the differences video?
They made him a little bit bulkier.
They just added just a couple pounds of muscle.
Just a couple.
No, he looks huge in this, in this photo.
I mean, he looks like he's ready for the Olympia.
Yeah.
I don't think they went far enough, so I took it upon myself to generate an even more
accurate photo we can pull up because I think this is what he should look like.
Like if you're going to AI your photos, just go full.
Just go all the way.
Yeah.
Get yourself in the stringer.
And make sure you're looking like you walked off of the Olympia stage.
And still claim natural.
Absolute mass.
Absolutely mass monster.
Yeah, you can.
The typical politician thing to do would be to claim natural.
I'm not on performance editing drugs.
I just run every single photo through images too and chat GPT.
People are having fun.
It was funny.
I thought I was so original for doing this, but if you scroll down the comments,
everyone had the same idea and made him way, way more jacked if you scroll down.
There's 25 others.
And there are some...
Winston says enhanced politics, Jack says the enhanced Senate.
Yeah.
There are some that are absolutely crazy here.
The enhanced Senate.
Okay, we got a debate on our hands.
We got a debate on our hands.
So, Philip Johnston, friend of the show, founder of Star Cloud,
says, founders, before you go out and raise, ask all the best AI models
this play the role of a venture capitalist and give each startup in the xyz category of your
startup space a ranking from one to ten on how much they would want to invest in them with one
don't want to invest at all and 10 desperately want to invest do deep research and give reasons
all the vCs are doing some version of this he's claiming that the vCs are just AI psychosis
letting AI do their job maybe it's true we don't know maybe it's but advice for founders he says all
the VCs are doing some version of this and if you're not at the top of
of the list, you're going to have problems, so it might make sense to delay the raise until you can get closer to the top.
So if the frontier models don't approve your startup pitch, go back to the drawing board, build a little bit more before you go out on that fundraising journey.
Seth Bannon at 50 years says founders do not listen to this.
You should in no way time you're raised based on how an LLM ranks you.
The best VCs are not sitting around asking AI, who should I invest in and then doing that.
Well, that's a different question.
Are you trying to raise or are you trying to raise from the best VCs?
These are two different things.
Yeah, I fill out around.
The LLM would do a pretty good job of figuring out, like, the relative interest and excitement, right?
Yeah.
You can look at, if an agent was running a pretty interesting metric is like, you know, headcount growth on LinkedIn, right?
Sure, sure, sure.
Are people leaving, you know, how many people are leaving the company?
Yeah.
All of these things.
So I actually think an agent could get pretty good at...
Has this fund's competitor done another deal?
And they're excluded from...
And that competitor is excluded from your round,
but they're looking for something in a category.
Also, you know, pedigree, right?
This is whether you like it or not, a big factor in...
Especially like kingmaking right now.
So if you're in a category and you're a smart, talented individual,
but you're at the seed stage.
And then there's another seed stage.
Is we talking about the pet food company?
Pedigree pet foods?
No.
That's what I know of a pet food from.
Dog food and treats.
And you have another company, your same stage,
where all three founders just came out of SpaceX
after being there for 10 years and you're both competing,
you know, in some adjacent category, right?
Like, I actually think the model is going to do a pretty good job and say,
like, hey, VCs, very likely.
might be, you know, three times more excited to invest in this team than you. And, and that is just,
that's just reality. Okay. So Philip Johnson says, I'm glad I provoked a reaction. This will age
badly over the coming few years. He's saying Seth is wrong. He says, also, I'm not talking about
timing arrays based on AI opinion. I'm talking about actually improving your startup, get more
customers, for example, which will at some point be picked up in the AI rankings, which is a lot of what you were getting at.
So I guess the question is, should you delay arrays based on AI opinion? And would you actually listen to a clanker tell you how your business is doing? Or are you going to say, I know better?
What do you think? I think you're arguing it's a good source of feedback. It's worthwhile. But at the same time, I can't see you doing this.
I can't see you actually going to a model and being like, yeah, they're right.
I am washed.
No way.
No way.
Zero shot.
I think I just don't believe that emotionally.
I think that earlier in my, a decade ago, this actually would have been super helpful.
Yeah.
Because I wasn't fully aware of all the different factors that made, that went into, that went into making a company.
This is a good point.
Yeah.
So I talked to a founder.
Early on, early on, like, there was like a checklist from zero.
0 to 1.
Yeah.
Peter Thiel's 0 to 1.
You could go through it and say like, okay, do I have defensibility?
Am I building something that will have staying power?
How many of these boxes do I check?
Because when I go out to raise, a lot of the VCs are going to be thinking the same thing.
It's worthwhile.
And an AI can sort of help you do that checklist.
So that's valuable.
Another thing I was talking, I don't think you're taking no for that answer.
I think an LM, a smart enough model would be able to do this if it was trained on enough
VC blog posts, maybe.
which certainly, I think some are quite well trained on PG's blog and others.
But I was talking to a founder yesterday.
Two-year-old company has gone through a pivot,
figured out a much more interesting opportunity than they originally started with,
have a bunch of pilots, a lot of positive momentum.
Revenue is growing, but I had to tell the founder, like,
look, you are the VCs that you're going to talk to if you got to raise right now,
are talking to companies that are adding what the revenue you will add in the next year,
they're going to add it in the next 30 days.
So even though you have a super exciting opportunity,
it's going to be really hard to invest right now just because they have a limited amount of capital.
They want to be making bets against, you know, oftentimes momentum.
And that's just the game.
Yeah.
And a really, really good model, a really good model could say, look,
your startup is very mid.
Don't even bother pitching Founders Fund top-tier firms,
but I got some guys who,
they got crazy AISCOS right now.
They'd love to invest.
So you should definitely DM this person
because they've been posting crazy slop on the timeline nonstop,
and they're just ripping checks at anything.
And so you fit that category.
So go get the bag from them.
This is possible.
This is possible with super intelligence.
Anyway, our next guest is in the waiting room.
But first, let me tell you about the New York Star.
Exchange. We want to change the world. Raise capital at the New York Stock Exchange. And we are
very lucky to be joined by Samia from Carl and Samir in the TVP and Eltrjohn. How are you doing?
Cabin in the woods. That's right. In ages. It's been too long. I missed you. Can you? Yes, I want to
see the view. There we go. This looks amazing. Take me home. Take me home. How off the record is this
conference? Can you describe what you're actually doing?
Never. Whenever you come to Montana, you can't tell anyone.
Yeah, that makes sense.
I did just tell you I'm in Montana, but no, I'm actually.
Geogess knows exactly where you are.
Yeah, yeah. It's over for you.
Let's get Gio Rainbolt on next and we'll docks you fully.
What happens in the woods, stays in the woods.
I imagine, I imagine you're there for good reason.
Hopefully there's been someone there that has provided more context on a story that we've been hunting around.
Well, first, thank you again for hosting us at your event last week.
Press publish LA was fantastic.
Dude.
Incredible execution.
Thank you guys for coming.
Also, extremely relevant weekend, you know, to have that event.
I mean, we knew back rooms was coming out the next day, but obviously we'll get into that.
Yeah.
What a time for Hollywood and creators.
Yeah, yeah.
And it was funny because I was telling you, oh, yeah, the Markiplier story is so cool.
And you're like, I just talked to him on the stage.
And so obviously, you've been tracking this for basically your entire career.
You've seen this coming, but has it felt overdue to you?
Ben Thompson was taking a victory lap saying he sort of predicted this in 2017.
It's been a decade.
And it feels like this intersection of YouTube and Hollywood.
It's been very combative.
But my takeaway is that this feels like the first moment when we're seeing glimmers of real cooperation
between the two separate communities and a way that traditional Hollywood can work with YouTubers
in a way that's mutually beneficial within the current system.
But how are you processing this?
How overdue is this?
How have you been processing the current moment?
I don't know if it's overdue or if it's just happening as it's unfolding, like in real time, where, you know, Kane, when I started on YouTube, Kane was five years old.
So, like, you know, these are internet native filmmakers.
And I think there's three reasons why it's happening right now.
You know, one really important thing when we think about backrooms.
Yeah.
Is backrooms, you guys talked about this.
Backrooms started as a.
a 4chan image that then became like a collaborative story. I think the reality is Gen Z IP is not
legacy IP like the Mandalorian. It's IP that is collaboratively created on the internet. So backrooms
feels like something that everybody on the internet had a hand in creating, right? Or millions and
millions of people on the internet had a hand in creating. So when that comes out in theaters,
I want a thing that I had a hand in. I think the other thing is that cutting your teeth as an internet
filmmaker, it teaches you a lot about how to earn attention.
Curry Barker, the director of obsession, talked about this.
In an interview, they said, what did YouTube teach you about directing movies?
He said, the reality is when you make something for the internet, the audience is begging
and you have to convince them to stay.
And I think historically in Hollywood, there's been an entitlement of, hey, we have George
Clooney in the movie, we spent a lot on marketing, you're going to buy a ticket, and you're
just going to sit and enjoy it. But I think internet filmmakers know when you're making something
for YouTube that the audience can click away at any moment to something more interesting. So I better
tell you a great story that's unfolding frame by frame. I think the third thing is, third thing,
because I know we all love lists. And the third thing will blow your mind, by the way. It'll shock you.
The third thing is that Hollywood talent is, I actually think like the lynchpin in this moment in time,
that there's a lot of talent that's available
that are like crafts people in Hollywood
who have focused on specific crafts
whether those are DPs or screenwriters.
Or set designers.
Like when that is paired with the acumen
of internet storytelling,
it's proven to be very powerful.
So I think there's been this like narrative,
of course, Hollywood is dying.
But I think it just looks very different now.
Like we didn't know theaters were available.
Like Markiplier put his movie,
himself. He picked up the phone and put his movie in 4,600 theaters. Theaters are available and they're
great. You know, like Hollywood Talent is available. They don't have other jobs and they're great. So I think
these worlds finally coming together, there's been a lot that's happened, but it's super exciting to
see. Yeah, I look at it as like the last 15 years has been a story. There was collaboration
happening, but it was overwhelmingly a disruption story. You look at the market cap.
the value creation of the platforms, you know, the, the, the, the, the Instagrams, et cetera.
How much, how much the explosion of enterprise value in these new platforms, the overall reduction
in EV in some of these sort of like more legacy entertainment.
Sure.
But now we're meeting at a point where there can, both sides can say like, hey, we've,
now is the opportunity to figure out how to both win because clearly there's a place for both, right?
we still want to see the, I mean, I don't, but John would like to see the blockbuster.
Jordy's going to see movies.
You're going to see movies.
This is going to be the tipping point because you were never a movie guy, but once the new
creators, once there's a Wombo film and a whole cinematic universe around Professor
Cindy, you're going to be.
I'll be there.
But yeah, so this is the moment where I think the, I expect digital platforms to consume more.
and more and more and more and more attention. That just seems to be they're frictionless,
right? They're free. They're available everywhere. But now is a moment of, hey,
both sides should be, you know, actively trying to do more and more stuff together.
Yeah, the reality is also, it's important to note that this has all happened in horror, right?
And this has happened once before with the Raka Raka Brothers, you know, signing with 824
and making talk to me for about $4 million that ended up making just about $100 million.
These are outsized returns.
Like Curry Barker making something for a million dollars.
You know, obsession was made for about a million dollars.
Focus purchased it for around $15 million.
And then generating $148 million, not even a month in, is absolutely insane.
And so horror has historically been cheaper to produce, right?
Even if you remember in the 90s, the Blair Witch Project was like this cheap indie horror movie that ended up exploding.
And I think there's something to,
to explore about like the absurdity of horror and the absurdity of these movies and the absurdity of our world right now
and maybe the comfort in going to see something that is more absurd than the world around you.
That's just a hypothesis I have around, you know, horror.
But horror has historically been cheap to make.
I think we're about to see every agent in Hollywood ping their creator talents and say,
do you have a horror script?
Because it is that moment that's going to happen.
There will be likely an overreaction.
Yeah.
you know, to this in Hollywood.
But I do think, like, what was proven over this past month is that internet native
storytellers can tell a story that reaches millions of people, that fills theaters,
and potentially better than, you know, the storytellers that cost you in the hundreds of
millions of dollars.
The Mandalorian costs $265 million all in.
And it's made $247 million right now.
So it's like, it's super hard to make a big blockbuster movie like that.
And, you know, even Markiplier making something like he made independently for under $5 million, you know, is pretty incredible.
Okay. Talk about the state of horror on YouTube or fiction on YouTube. It's somewhat interesting to me that I would put backrooms, like the actual content as it's horror and the movie is a direct adaptation of that. The original backroom series on YouTube is creepy.
but obsession Curry Barker
that was comedy and Markiplier was horror but video gaming
he wasn't creating the fiction himself
and so I'm wondering about how if we will see a shift
does this give does this basically does it give
YouTubers permission to do things that are more
fiction based versus explainer videos podcast interviews
reactions commentary which is like the bread and butter
of most YouTube comedy as well
or or will we see more people
pulling, okay, this person's talented, but horror is ROI positive. So we should just give
a crack at this, even though they're a commentary channel as opposed to someone coming through.
Okay, they've been telling love stories in a fictional context. They have a rom-com series on
YouTube. Let's let them make a rom-com. I think animation will be the other space outside of horror
and it's already happening. The Amazing Digital Circus is a great example from an animation studio
called Glitch.
You know, their first few episodes crossed half a billion views of Amazing Digital Circus.
They didn't know that was going to happen, but it did in a community, you know, gathered
around them.
I think horror and animation and anything video game adjacent works really well on YouTube.
I think some of the other stuff is harder.
I think that stuff may emerge more on like Instagram and TikTok, and whether it can be
adapted into feature-length stuff, I think will be up for debate.
But I do think both things will happen.
I think YouTube will be looked at now as a real incubator of IP and a real incubator of talent.
And I think that's always been like a concept, but it was never like, like, I think when you meet with Hollywood execs, they're like, yeah, but we can't make any money off of it, right?
Like, yeah, they can make money through brand deals and a couple million bucks here and there.
But like, we can't make real money.
These movies have proved you can make real money.
And so I think that's where both things will be true.
I think creators who upload to the platform and incubate IP.
Backrooms was found by a 27-year-old, you know, basically staffer
who was just poking around and seeing what was going on on YouTube and Reddit.
I think that will be, like everybody will have a young person
just cruising Reddit and YouTube to go, what's catching?
And I think if I was giving advice to those people,
I would say, really take a hard look at Reddit
and see where things are being built in real time.
by big communities.
Another great example of this is like in the Minecraft community
years and years ago, the Dream SMP
was this like collaborative Minecraft story
that had so much lore to it that a bunch of people were involved in.
So I think the reason why video games is such a right place
for IP to build is because it's interactive storytelling
and interactive world building that a lot of people are involved in.
And that then more than just a like large audience,
that guarantees like a mobile audience
because they're invested in it.
And then there's red versus blue with Halo and GTARP.
Like there are rich sources.
And it's interesting, there's been so many video game adaptation flops.
Basically, Detective Pikachu is the only one, I think, that has a metacritic score above 80.
Last of Us did well.
So it feels like we're hitting a tipping point there.
But you go back to the original, like, Doom adaptation, a lot of the resident in the
films.
Some of them made money, but none of them were critically acclaimed or really,
became like cultural moments in the way the video games did.
But if you have a creator who actually really deeply understands the community,
the content, the lore,
and then they build their audience on top of the IP,
potentially some of these video game companies that are maybe not as internet,
not as like,
not as linear storytelling native.
If they have someone in the mix who's already sort of pre-vetted,
this can work as a two-hour film,
then they can unleash them, turn them loose.
But of course,
is an IP negotiation. Is there any missing part of the stack right now to meet this moment?
You have the, you know, the CAAs, the talent, you know, the talent agencies that can, you know,
wear a lot of different hats and help make plays. You have production companies, but is there
any, is there any part, is there like financing component missing? Maybe it's too risky to create
some type of vehicle just to back creator-led films,
but at the same time, maybe having domain expertise
would be actually...
I think the missing piece,
and this has been historic in our industry,
is development.
I think there is a lot of assumption
that creators with big audiences know what works,
and part of that is true.
But, you know, Kane got signed at 16 years old,
and 824 kind of mentored him
from the age of 17 to the age of 20.
And I think 824 has a history of making great movies that are culturally relevant and knowing how to make something iconic, knowing how to make us all feel something.
And so that I think should not be overlooked is the development step.
Like surround me, if I'm a filmmaker, surround me with people who have done this before, help me write the script, which Kane did have a lot of help in screenwriting.
He's looking for a collaborator for part two.
But give me the development support to make it long-lasting IP or big global IP.
And I think that happened with Kane.
I think Curry is like a really great talent
and what he's done in comedy historically has led him here.
But I think development's going to be the missing step
because what's going to happen is it's going to be a very quick reaction.
Let's get creators with scripts.
Let's put money behind them.
Let's move fast so we can also make $150 million.
But you have to remember this is years and years and years
of these storytellers cutting their teeth
and having good people around them
to help them learn how to tell a good story.
So I think the financing,
will not be a problem because you can finance creators know how to make stuff for cheap
last last question 20 days that curry made that movie which is great wow somewhere out there
someone is sitting in a dark room for like 18 hours a day trying to prompt their way to a hit
movie i don't know if i don't know if the models are good enough yet i have a feeling they might be
and it really is about figuring out the storytelling component
and piecing it all together to be cohesive.
But do you have any sort of personal timeline to that kind of moment
where one individual takes, you know, an idea through a, you know,
even a 30-minute film that actually gets a, you know,
positive reaction from critics or, you know, something like 20 million views,
something like that?
I mean, obviously we all live in L.A.
I feel like the first thing that comes to mind for me is the Spencer Pratt mayoral ads,
because those are like a lot.
Yeah, but ads are so much easier to make.
It's a glimmer.
They're much easier to make, but I'm saying that's where we are in the timeline, right?
Like those ads are clearly AI, but they got shared a lot, and they did do millions of views.
And people just accepted them for the story that he was telling.
I think.
Yeah.
And so I think if you look at that, like, maybe it'll be in a year or two,
and I think it'll start in animation with short films,
because we'll accept that more.
But I don't know.
All things, I think another element of this whole story is I do think maybe you guys feel this,
maybe you don't.
I think there's a bit of internet fatigue that is allowing theaters to come back.
Yeah.
I think maybe I'm just overstepping there, but I do feel it.
I personally feel an element of internet fatigue.
the screen time finally sort of dropping off a little bit after spiking time.
Yeah, I thought about running over my phone with my car on purpose,
just to have a little bit of forced time offline.
So, like, the models are really good.
Like, are we even playing around with Gemini Omni,
obviously we had them at Press Publish, L.A.,
but, like, they're really good models.
They're crazy good.
You know, whether you can,
that'll probably happen in the next two years.
We'll probably watch something like that.
One somewhat related cut on this that I want your reaction to is I found it very interesting
that backrooms started as a purely CGI VFX effort in Blender and After Effects.
And what's interesting is there's actually a whole discord for modeling different 3D models
that are shared so the community can build around it.
And the assumption, if you are worried about the relentless march of technology is like, well, of course, they had everything modeled.
They already had the blender assets, like just hand that off to the VFX team.
And you got yourself a CGI movie, put Chihuetal Edge of Four on a green screen and it's done.
But they didn't do that.
They built 30,000 square feet of physical set design.
And it's interesting that I feel like the CGI found up, wound up being like the audition for actually building.
and underwriting the build out of that set.
And I imagine that that might happen in AI
where you get someone that has some interesting idea
that they were able to prompt,
and then they take that into a CGI that's a little more polished,
and then they can go build the actual sets,
and it's all just this extra underwriting process.
But I was wondering if there was anything else
that stuck out to you about the fact
that they sort of went light on CGI,
when you think the fans of backrooms are,
they're already Blender, they love Blender.
Like, they're not upset.
about CGI.
But if it was CGI, then I would be like, just make it for YouTube.
Like the reason why it's an event is because of all that.
And I think 824, you know, I don't know who, yeah, I don't know who, whose call it was.
But 824 is very good at making things iconic.
All the interviews of the cast are done in the backrooms.
There was a DJ set from the back rooms.
There was people who visited the backrooms.
Sure.
The fact that it was tactile and real makes it an event.
That's interesting.
It's more than 360 experience.
I like that.
Yeah.
I've seen five movies, but I can tell just based on, with hardly paying any attention,
I can tell when a movie's an A24 movie from like the first video that I see, the first 15 seconds of a trailer.
Yeah.
There's just something about it.
Yeah, it's the same with you guys.
Like you can, like there's, you know, countless shows that try and be TPPBN, but you can see TPP.
You can, I could like see something for a split second, even without you guys on screen and know if it's TPPBBB.
I think 824 has that and that is really hard to do.
It takes a lot of focus and it takes a lot of discipline.
But, you know, I think 824 has done it again.
Like this is incredible and pulling someone like Kane into this and beating Marty Supreme,
which had like a crazy marketing push, shows you the power of the internet.
Yeah, yeah.
They overpowered the blimp.
Powerful, man.
The internet's powerful.
and the communities are powerful.
Okay. Last question.
I'm assuming we're about to leave
and I just wanted to say I'm thrilled to see ads back.
I couldn't tell you how great this looks to me.
Yes. I'll give it up for that.
I'm thrilled.
It really is part of the brand.
It's part of the brand.
It is part of the brand.
Do you have time for one more question?
I got a time, man.
I'm just here in Montana.
You have to go probably.
Doing mysterious things.
Yes.
Next question.
Where are you?
and don't dodge the question.
No.
I want advice for YouTubers in the context of passion projects.
There's a lot of YouTubers that have grown off of a single format.
They know what works, the title of Thumbnail Hook, the format,
the structure of the video.
They know they can put up a million views for every video that they do in that series.
But they get sort of bored and they want to do their passion project,
their series, and then they do it.
They take the time off.
And then it just doesn't quite perform.
maybe the 200,000 true fans show up, but it's not getting the viral hooks. I noticed this with
Johnny Harris did this fantastic series on Cyprus and he went around these islands, but it just
it wasn't financially the same as all the other videos that he does. And I'm wondering if there's a
new format where you should sort of give YouTubers the permission to keep that special project
in their back pocket and take it to a different place, take it to Hollywood where that type of
project can live and flourish and go through development as opposed to trying to stuff it down
the same funnel that is very optimized for a particular type of video.
I think monetizing your passion projects is almost like an oxymoron.
Oh, right? Like if it's a passion project, you care about it. You should not get other
people involved. Like we are in the business of media. You can sell media. You can come up with
your media product. You can sell your media product. You can sell your ad integrations into your
YouTube videos. But you have something you deeply care about that you just know how to make it.
You know what it should be. I call it. You add a bunch of, yeah, yeah, you go. Or you have a financier that
you trust. Yeah, you got a financier that you trust that's not going to hinder it. And again,
Curry, I think the danger with these creators now is actually having too much money. You know,
like Curry making that for 750 is what makes it special. It's what actually gets less strings attached.
Yeah. And why it's good.
Markiplier making something no strings attached.
That's just his money.
He gets to make something really special.
So I think market pliers is a great example.
Like when you have a passion project,
you ideally have the cash to do it
or can get it from someone you trust
who's not going to intervene with it.
But I think that is a danger.
I think too much money can kill creativity very quickly.
And it just becomes a product, of course.
And so I would caution.
I have one last hot take that I want your reaction to.
We need to bring the host red mid-roll ad to the cinema.
Movies should have host-red mid-roll because if you look at the budgets of some of these films, $750, $1 million,
if you're watching an obsession and then just at the one-hour mark,
and then you get an ad for Chase Sapphire Reserve.
Chase Sapphire Reserve.
Not just product placement.
I want the characters to sit down.
No, no, no, no.
No, the whole point is that it's not product placement.
because everyone goes to product placement movies.
This is separate.
This is a host or ad separate from the content.
I agree and disagree with you.
I want the characters to sit down and not just use like a Chase Sapphire car to pay.
I want them to look at the camera and deliver.
Because I'm actually sick of seeing James Bond use the Samsung Galaxy S-26.
I would rather just James Bond tell me about it separately.
And then I can go back to enjoying the movie with whatever phone he would use,
whatever phone the character would normally use.
I love you guys and I love how you speak about advertising.
I disagree wholeheartedly.
I don't want that at all.
I'm happy to have the theatrical runs sponsored by someone.
If you have a Chase Sapphire card, you get in for free.
And you get perks for something if you have a Chase Sapphire card.
The one thing, my hot take is I want movies to be like 90 minutes and under again.
I can't do the two-hour movie.
Like, I just cannot do it.
I would prefer, like 90 minutes and under I got time for.
or two hours feels like,
and I think all of our attention spans
are being trained to like be way shorter than that.
Even an hour and a half is like working out.
Like it's hard.
Maybe you're shorter 90 second movie.
Vertical.
Well, John and I are going to start.
$20 is $20, but I check the box.
I saw a movie.
Yeah, I went to the theater.
That would be good for me.
That would be good for me.
That would be great for you.
You'd be able to catch up.
You'd be like, yeah, I've seen hundreds of movies.
Yeah, well, we can agree to disagree on ads.
John and I will start a media buying company called
fourth wall and it's just focused on breaking a real agency breaking down the fourth wall and delivering
adam crushes during your most sacred moments of entertainment yes yes yes the next godfather will be
sponsored fully uh anyway enjoy montana thank you so much for taking the time on a busy day to come chat
with us great to see you dude great to see you again not that busy but appreciate you okay
have a good good let me tell you about cisco critical infrastructure for
for the AI era. Unlocked seamless real-time experiences a new value with Cisco.
Hey, team, is this, Ben, is this real?
What is real? Did you take a screenshot of what happened?
What is this?
Look in the chat.
No, no way.
He found the target.
Just off that one screenshot, our intern, Ben, was able to find Samir's exact location.
Okay, we will not docks it, but we do know exactly where it is, potentially.
I don't know. This might be hallucin.
but it looks pretty accurate.
Anyway, we've been keeping our next guest waiting.
We have Tom Farley from Ferry from Fulish in the waiting room.
Let's bring him in to the TDP and Ultradome.
How are you doing?
What's going on?
Good to meet you.
Welcome to the show. Can you hear us?
Can not hear us.
Okay, we're turning on the audio.
Hopefully we'll hear him in the meantime.
Let's go to this debate.
Okay, Becky Quick at CNBC is getting in trouble because she claims.
the GLP-1s are responsible for school budgets shortfalls.
When I saw this, I was like, what could possibly be the connection?
And bioinvesting 5 said she's so misinformed.
She fact-checked it.
Turns out it's true.
School budgets are paying for GLP-1s.
They're very expensive.
And so that's driving up health care costs in a lot of, in a lot of school.
Welcome to the show.
Anyway, welcome to the show.
Thank you so much for taking the time.
How you doing?
Sorry about the audio issue.
I found the little bit about Becky interesting.
It's pretty interesting.
She's not to speak about somebody else,
somebody on a different network,
but she's a problem.
She's a serious journalist.
We're very close.
We're very close with CNBC.
We love the Squawk Cox crew.
They pioneered this whole format.
Invented television over there.
Anyway, let's go to you.
Tell us about bullish.
Give us the update.
Take us through what's recent in the business.
And let's get started.
Yeah, sure.
Just before I do,
just to follow on on that.
You said you're a fantasy NBC.
I too am a fantasy NBC,
but also we have our own media business here.
No way.
And I've watched with some,
as both a practitioner
and a fan of somebody who's done a lot of it,
I've watched with some astonishment,
the success that you guys have met with
by just creating a fresher,
more interesting format.
You guys do an awesome job.
Thanks.
Thanks for having me on.
Thanks for saying that.
It's been a really wild rise,
really fun.
Wow.
That's part of getting to talk to people like you.
I have all day long.
And,
And again and again and talking to six people a day.
A lot of people start podcasts because they want to talk to interesting people.
But then they talk to one a week.
We get to talk to seven a day.
It's great.
Yeah, yeah, super cool.
I'm happy for you and happy for me.
Yeah, what can we talk about?
Well, why don't you take us through like the shape of the business currently and then
some of the new deals that you've been working on?
Wait, can we get some backstory first?
Oh, yeah, yeah.
Let's start there.
You were at, you're at NICEE, right?
Yeah, I was born in Bowie, Maryland, just outside of D.C.
I thought you're going to say I was born on the stock exchange.
I was born on the floor.
On the trading floor.
That would be amazing lore.
I actually didn't know, like I wasn't born with any like pre, any, any destiny.
I didn't know.
I was always interested in business and money.
And no, I wasn't, nothing was preordained.
But so.
Yeah.
A lot of people are afraid to say that.
I was never afraid to say that.
Yeah.
Yeah, no, I could tell.
My mother would shake her head sometimes.
My mom was a nun for five years.
And worked in, you know, I grew up in a place called P.G. County.
And she worked at Elizabeth Seaton High School, which, you know, by and large had kids from a different socioeconomic strata than me.
And then she would come home and I would talk about making money.
and you know she looked at me like oh he's the black sheet yeah but uh met my met my wife at
georgetown i need a dollar to buy a gatorade and um she lent it to me and now we have we have
three kids in new york city and i just fell in love with business and uh first couple years
i did like banking and private equity honestly i love that too but when when i really kind of hit
hit got got my mojo is is in the markets industry because it's the intersection of tech in business
and that to me is my happy place
and I've been there ever since.
I started when I was in my 20s.
I'm like granddad now in the digital asset space.
I'm 50 and I've been right there at that kind of overlap
of the Venn diagram of technology and markets.
I had these friends, the Romero's,
and I love them.
I love them all, stay in touch with all of them.
There's four brothers and they're all super smart, super successful.
And three of them are just like meatheads.
like, you know, always had their shirts off and wrestling and playing, playing hoops.
And then Danny was always like reading Java coding for dummies when he was like 10 years old.
And I would always keep an eye on him.
And so in 2013, I'm like, Danny, are you going back to Duke?
And he said, no, I'm going out west to start a blockchain company.
And I'm like, all right.
I don't know what the hell that is.
But if you're doing it, I want in.
There you know.
A few days later, New York Stock Exchange, where I was at the time, we agreed to put.
put $10 million into a little bitty, maybe pre-revenue company called Coinbase.
And so I got this bird's eye view of the digital asset space.
Dan Romero.
Yeah.
We know him well.
He's been on the show.
That's a crazy.
That's a deep cut.
That's so good.
Oh, it was great.
It was great.
Literally, I'm like, Danny, going back to Duke, he's like, no.
He's like, no, Tom.
I actually graduated this past May.
You're a year off.
I'm starting this blockchain company.
Meanwhile, I know I'm going in to run the New York Stock Exchange.
He does not.
And I'm like, hey, dude, you got, you got a couple minutes?
Come sit on the porch.
And he comes up and he starts telling me about blockchain.
And I'm like, I'd heard of Bitcoin, but this is early, right?
It's like, smart contracts.
And I'm like, but what use is there for these smart contracts?
He's like, oh, it's going to be amazing.
It's going to disintermediate.
It's this layer of programmable finance.
It's going to disintermediate all the kind of big institutions like the New York Stock would change.
And I'm like, wait, what?
What are you talking about?
It can't be.
And so I said, I got to put some money.
And he said, oh, my roommate Fred is going to be in New York tomorrow.
Why don't you meet with him?
And so I met Fred Ersam.
I ended up meeting with Fred at Union Square.
And we put that dough in.
And it was like the best money we ever invested.
We got lucky on the return.
Just dumb, you know, just dumb luck.
Was this like this Series A stage?
I don't know.
I can't remember last Tuesday, let alone 2013.
I could Google it.
But early.
I mean, Coinbase was in my Y, C,
batch in 2012 and summer 2012. So I think Cedar Series A was right around. We should punch it.
We should punch it in. Anyway, it was a long time ago. Punch in New York Stock Exchange Coinbase.
It'll come up. That's crazy. That must have been, what kind of reaction did you get on Wall Street
from that investment at the time? I don't know how public it was, but I imagine you still had some
of your peers that were saying, you know, what the heck is Tom up to? You know, I think if you asked
Brian or Fred
or Fred
of Union Square, I think
they would all say
with humility, it has nothing
to do with me, it has to do with the NYC brand,
that it was hugely valuable
for Coinbase. It was not only public, it was
massively public. So in other words, if you
were to look it up, you're going to find story after
story after story after story, which is
hey, traditional
bellwether, a traditional
bellwether firm, New York
Stock Exchange validates
crypto firm
Coinbase
So on the on the West Coast
It was it was like a
A lot of celebration and
You know hey this is finally the coming together
These two worlds on the East Coast
It was like what the hell is this
You know what a weird investment from these guys
Yeah
And it wasn't as it wasn't as celebrated
I will say just
My thesis was
This was a programmable layer of finance
for institutions.
Yeah.
Like that was the thesis,
it was dead wrong,
if I'm honest.
You know,
there were no institution.
There weren't institutions until...
Yeah, was that just a...
You had the timing wrong.
You didn't...
Yeah, but pretty darn wrong, right?
Yeah.
Pretty darn wrong.
Yeah, but you're only off by,
only off by, what, a decade?
A decade plus.
And just missed,
but miss that retail
would be the,
the early adopters.
Yeah.
And even some of the late adopters.
Yeah.
I guess how do you synthesize the fact that crypto did not disrupt the traditional finance system like entirely?
Like, you know, J.P. Morgan, Morgan Stanley, these firms still exist.
They're chugging along.
New York Stock Exchange is still chugging along.
NASDAQ and many others.
And yet crypto firms have been very successful.
It was sort of a like heads-eye win-tales-you-lose situation.
Like both sides did well.
There was not total destruction of the traditional financial infrastructure and institutions.
But crypto was, you know, wound up flourishing.
Like, what does that say about everyone's preconceptions, I guess?
Because there were two sides a decade ago, either crypto is a zero or it's going to take over everything.
And it, and we wound up with the middle road.
Yeah, I don't.
I agree, I agree, and I'm going to challenge it a little bit.
I'm not sure it was, it has been up to this point such a big win for crypto.
There's actually relatively, for all the money and attention and time and, you know, ink spilled.
And for all that has gone into digital assets, there's actually relatively few successful companies.
Yeah.
And certainly the disruption.
to traditional finance
has been relatively small
and very small actually.
I, and look,
it hasn't always been great.
Just I'm not a cheerleader.
I call balls and strikes.
Like, not only were there winters,
but there were frauds and scams.
And, you know, like, I'm not in it
for the fart coins and monkey drawings.
I'm just not and I respect it
and I understand why they're there.
And just to pivot to that,
like the nice thing is
they've brought a lot of attention
into the industry,
a lot of money,
the industry. And I think it's all been a warm-up act. And, you know, remember, like,
blockchain's going down. In some cases, once a day. And none of that happens anymore. And
they've been battle-hardened. And regulators have now come around. And you've seen broad acceptance
of blockchain rails for serious use cases in Asia, in Hong Kong and Singapore, in Europe,
in Brussels, Europe, but then in the individual countries. And now in the U.S., not just
with Genius, which is the state, you know, it ratifies stable coins, kind of gives them
papal blessing, but hopefully the Clarity Act, we can talk about how to handicap that,
but if that gets past, that, that'll be perhaps the biggest regulatory or legislative step
ever. And so I am very, very optimistic that I come on this show a decade from now, and the
global securities market is, it's on blockchain rails. Yeah. And that's a $270 trillion market.
So there's no mission accomplished banner behind me in terms of crypto up to this point.
But it's coming.
And it's coming in real time.
That's kind of how I view it.
Yeah.
Crypto, you know, the cycles and the hype cycles are so vicious.
And yet it keeps creating these opportunities where the true believers, if you just maintain that conviction, like this window.
right now where there's some, at least, you know, we primarily cover private markets.
And so there's so, there's some interest at the intersection of AI and crypto.
There's been a decent amount of investment there.
But I don't see, you know, hundreds of new companies focusing at the intersection of what
you guys are doing, which is that like true institutional adoption across, you know, global
equity markets and other asset classes. And so I do, I can, I can, you know, thinking on that 10-year
time horizon, I very much can see how the best days are yet to come and huge opportunity to
just like, you know, be in the foxhole and, and focus on the opportunity. Yeah. And I,
I think agentic commerce will intersect with blockchain technology. And I'm not one of those who
says, oh, and 100% of, you know, agenda commerce is going to happen on blockchain rails.
And, yeah, Fiat rails will see their share.
But that's going to be a big driver as well.
But you're absolutely right, Jordian, thanks for doing the prep work and learning up on Bullish,
because you're absolutely right.
We are focused on institutions, really institutions exclusively in our exchange business.
Over in our coin desk and consensus business, of course, we're a media business.
So we service all sorts of people and customers.
but we focus on institutions exclusively.
Yeah.
I'm reflecting on the question of like the should there be a mission accomplished banner behind you?
And I take your point.
At the same time, yeah, there has been a lot of success in crypto trillions of dollars in market cap.
A lot of that captured by the coins themselves, but there's a number of very successful companies.
Yours is among them.
but I'm interested in where you think we are in 2026.
A lot of the prices are,
we're not in some insane falling knife scenario,
but stable coin volumes are sort of stable,
even though they were growing very quickly.
The Bitcoin price is fairly stable, which is, what?
Fairly stable.
Micro strategy started selling.
But it just doesn't feel like,
oh, this is the FTX moment all over again.
And like, the crypto is about to fall into zero and, like, people are panicking.
It's more just like, you know, this is a mature, stable industry that's, you know, there's some,
there's some growth, there's some companies that are beating earnings, there's all sorts
of different stuff happening.
It feels very mature.
And so I'm wondering.
Yeah, well, it's mature, but still feels like there's an opportunity for pretty parabolic
growth as you get real institutional adoption, not just, hey, we're going to hold some.
you know, Bitcoin on our treasury, et cetera.
So yeah, is that the next move?
I agree with everything you both just said.
I think, you know, what John said is kind of feels like a more ordinary industry.
And by ordinary, I don't mean that in a pejorative sense, but it's no longer based on hype.
It's based on real use cases like stable coins.
And stable coins are being used for trading and stable coins are being used for payment.
And stable coins are being used for lend borrow.
And they've gone from zero to 300 billion.
And, you know, the whole industry is now 2.7 trillion.
And yes, Bitcoin's more stable.
Now we happen to be sitting here at a moment of time when Bitcoin's down, you know,
15% over the last two weeks or something of that nature.
But there were times when these, when like, there was like the whole crypto industry is down 50% and people are actually penning the take.
Everything's going to zero.
And it's being, and it's being debated seriously.
And that's not happening right now.
So it is a different time.
And then what Jordy said that I agree with, so you know, you mentioned John that crypto is a couple trillion.
The last time I looked, coincidentally, I'm not that good in math in my head.
The numbers made it real easy.
2.7 trillion.
And the global securities market is 270 trillion.
Oh, yeah.
So, and that is coming, right?
Money market funds have already moved on to blockchain rails.
U.S. equities have already moved on to blockchain rails.
You know, you look at all the industry bigwigs from the, you know, my old haunt, the New York Stock Exchange or DTC, the clearer, or many of the electronic brokers, Krakken or Binance put down an announcement yesterday.
They're all tokenizing stocks.
You're seeing more examples of tokenizing fixed income.
And so you're looking at the parabolic growth that Jordy referred to, I believe, is going to come from the so-called tokenization of the global.
security's
more important there. Cost or speed?
Because, and when I mean
speed, I guess I mean like 24-7
trading, that
seems like it's
crazy, we don't have that yet
everywhere. It seems like a purely technical
issue. And yet, I've
talked to folks at hedge funds that are like,
yeah, like we actually can't get traders who
want to work at 2 a.m. Eastern
on a Sunday. It's hard
to recruit the best to actually
make that market and provide liquidity.
at that point in time.
But then on the other side, you have, you know, fees and all of the different things that
happen with crypto potentially dropping costs.
Like, what are the different pieces of adoption?
Yeah, the 24-7, what people miss sometimes is actually the investing demand, especially for
the most liquid U.S.-based securities.
Like, think Nvidia stock.
Yeah.
comes, the incremental buyer comes from abroad.
And, you know, Singapore, where we have an office, is 12 hours away.
And they don't want to trade some crappy derivative, or they don't want to trade some, like, IOU.
They want to trade the actual stock.
And so by going 24-7, you can bring on new liquidity, which drives down the cost of equity of those companies.
And so there's a real incremental benefit.
I think to answer your question, like, what is the benefit that's most attractive?
you have to look at the particular constituent.
The issuers, they hate little things.
Like what, you know, I say little.
They're not little to them, but like this issue of naked short selling, which is illegal.
But is possible in a world where trading is obfuscated in a Russian series of Russian dolls of brokers or other intermediaries.
With blockchain rails, there is no naked short selling.
You just look, are the, are the shares in a wallet or are they not in a wallet?
Like, it's done.
But also, issuers want the ability to pay stable,
dividends and stable coins.
Issuers want the ability to be able to reward long-term holders.
Imagine you're a company to say, hey, we're going to pay a dividend of a dollar,
but we're going to give an extra penny for every quarter you've held our stock.
There was a whole exchange on the West Coast that started that was really great.
Eric Rees, long-term stock exchange, right?
Exactly.
Mark Andres had introduced me to Eric Reese maybe 10 years ago, 15 years ago.
And I remember the first meeting I had with them, I thought,
this guy's on to something.
Like, yeah, we should, we should reward that.
We should reward long-term holders.
Well, it turns out you can't do it if you don't know who owns the damn thing and it's
buried within, you know, five Russian dolls.
Or blockchain technology, again, you just look at it.
Oh, they own it.
It's in that wallet.
It hasn't moved.
So for the issue where it's actually incremental functionality as opposed to cost or speed.
And then for the investors, it's just the ability to do things at a lower cost.
So I guess that's more cost.
But then on the speed perspective,
being able to settle instantly is interesting.
So it kind of depends.
Depends which constituent.
Short on time.
Couple questions.
People on the West Coast who know nothing about finance
have been excited about compute futures, markets,
or treating compute like trading it like a commodity.
is that something, you know, how do you think about that, you know, potential market?
Is that something that you think could start on blockchain rails because it is a new type of commodity in some way?
Yeah, two questions embedded in that.
One is, will compute futures actually be a successful product?
I think it will be.
The issue is standardizing it and commoditizing it.
successful the real successful futures contracts with lots and lots of open interest all come down
to the question of are you able to standardize it and commoditize it and come up with the cheapest
deliver that has value in the world and everybody agrees upon so that's not going to be dead easy
it's still probably going to take a couple years but i suspect that that will happen uh the second
is that because is that because like an onion is an onion but a GPU is not necessarily a GPU
like an a a 100 is not a blackwell so then do you need you exactly and and and
on hundreds of sub-mark, you know, basically sub-markets.
Yeah, and the providers have a vested interest in not being commoditized.
So sometimes it takes time for the market to commoditize.
But it's exactly what you just described.
Got it.
Yeah.
Go ahead.
One more random question.
Friday IPOs, we're looking at a SpaceX IPO next Friday.
my my sense is like that's does that not introduce like more chaos because you have like one
you know real trading day there's going to be so much retail activity and then you go into a
a weekend of course you know people will be trading it over the weekend in different ways but
I know there was hollibaba and Uber that both went out on on the NICC on Fridays how did how did those
goes, does that make it, you know, more complicated or chaotic? Or is it, is, you know, are the
exchanges set up to handle that? I, uh, that was one, the, the Alibaba IPO in particular was one
of the best days my career, maybe even my life. Um, but it was also coming from the guy who,
as a young boy knew he loved money. I also was so friggin nervous that it honestly, when you
just said that, I like was tingling.
remembering it. We were in our beautiful ballroom that morning, and Jet Lee was there, Masa,
and Jack, and Jimmy Lee, who's departed, who's an iconic and legendary J.P. Morgan Banker. He kind of
sidled up to me. He's like, hey, Tom, did you guys test this thing at all? Like, is this actually
going to work? Because you're about to get a gazillion retail orders. Good God, next Friday,
it's going to make Ali Baba look like Child's Play.
So Adina at the NASDAQ is fantastic, and the NASDAQ is fantastic.
Oh, man, it still makes me nervous.
But to answer your question, I think a Friday's fine.
There will be awesome price discovery on Friday, and you're going to see extreme volatility for the first hour.
That's nobody's fault.
That's called markets.
Could it be better?
could there be better mechanisms that could be put in place to smooth it out?
Yes, and we should all strive to get there.
I just went through an IPO.
I have a thousand things that need to change.
I think blockchain technology can be very, very helpful in the future.
And I think you're going to see more capital formation on blockchain rails because it can do just that.
But high volatility, to be expected.
It's going to calm down dramatically through the day.
And it won't be a problem getting through the weekend because there's not going to be any substantive new news.
Right.
Thank you so much for coming on the show.
Maybe you should come back on, maybe you should come back on on next Friday.
Yeah, we got to do it.
This was super fun.
This is a fantastic.
We'll talk to you soon.
Yeah, great.
Great to meet you.
Have a good one.
Let me tell you about Railway.
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automatically takes care of scaling monitoring and security.
Our next guest is Nikesha Rora from Palo Alto Networks.
He's the chair and CEO.
A friend of the show.
Welcome back.
Nikesh, great to see you. How are you doing? I'm doing great, gentlemen. How are you?
We're doing well as... We're doing great. It's been too long.
We see those watches.
Ooh, I have a Rolex Submariner in TBPN Green on. We got them for the whole team.
Yeah, not going to be happy to say that. What about your favorite guests?
Our favorite guests, we do have some of those, but...
We do, we do. I actually, I can't wear watches when I'm using a computer.
Really? It's too annoying to me to have it clacking against...
It's just, I can't do it.
Total skill issue.
Total skill issue.
Well, no skill issues over at Palo Alto Networks, thankfully.
Incredible progress.
Take us through it.
What's the latest in your world?
Well, I think the good news is we can officially declare the Assasucalypt dead for cybersecurity.
Why?
Why is it dead?
Like, were you surprised that it took so long?
it obviously has only been, what, a couple months, but still
Oh, if you can use it gave every one of our happy shareholders
a buying opportunity, this is good.
Yeah, there you go.
It took a few months because I think, look,
the general tendency in the market was AI is going to eat every piece of software
and it's going to be amazing and it's going to take care of it.
Now, yeah, it's good.
Yeah.
But even now, the false positive rate on unedited models is 25%.
Right.
Yeah.
So if I don't explain the harness, if I don't explain,
the context, if I don't explain what the code is trying to do, the model still gets one out of four wrong.
In cybersecurity, our business will get everything right.
It's not getting one out of four wrong.
I don't think I'm going to replace any time soon.
Yeah.
It's like having your car driven by Open AI because I don't need a way more.
I don't need to have all the machine learning code that tells you everything.
So let's just stick a model in a new car and go drive off.
It doesn't work like that.
So I think what the market is beginning to realize is cybersecurity is going to get enabled with AI.
And if you want to get it enabled, you have to go with the people who have been doing this for a long time
who sit at various enforcement points because we sit at not the 125 million enforcement points.
You need AI to enable the enforcement points with new techniques to go suss things out that allows us to do a better job.
But it's not going to come away and take my enforcement point away and replace me.
So are we going to use the future?
Yes.
There's an alternate reality where the world wakes up to AI being good at, you know, hacking computer systems.
systems and all of the cyber stocks just like rip like off of that news.
But it was interesting.
Yeah.
Interesting.
Well, if you saw, you know, one of the core skills of Mittos is the ability to daisy chain vulnerabilities and develop an attack.
So yes, it is not an alternate reality.
It's not hypothetical.
It is true.
It is the capability exists.
And that's why they were being so careful, rightfully so in making sure they don't release
the model at large because they know the model unconstrained has the ability of.
of determining attacks based on vulnerabilities.
So I think it's the right thing for them to do,
is to make sure they do that in a measured fashion.
But what you're beginning to see,
more and more capabilities getting embedded
in the core models, Open AI has one now,
and Anthropic has another one,
I'm sure Google has one too.
So just plays this movie forward,
six to nine months from now,
it'll be impossible to put the genie back in the bottle
or constrain them.
We have six to nine months to make sure
that if somebody's able to use AI to attack somebody,
the infrastructure on the customer end
is equally fast to be able to repel it or block it at the same speed.
Yeah.
Now, you don't get that without modernizing your stack,
without, of course, buying a lot of Palo Alto and having us help you get to place
where we can defend in real time just the way AI can attack in real time.
So the cancellation of the SaaSpocalypse is clearly, it was a referendum on...
For cybersecurity.
Yeah, for cybersecurity.
But the claim was...
AI will make Palo Alto Networks business worse.
And I think that's been disproven.
We've discussed that.
The bigger question I have is, how does AI make your business better?
Is it just the demand side because there are more threats than ever, so people have to buy
more Palo Alto?
Or are there other things happening internal to the organization that are making you more efficient,
higher growth?
Like, what are the other levers that are being pulled in the AI era?
Well, like, AI going back to multiple places, right?
The first place is the amount of build-out that's happening across the world on AI
means that more bits are going to be traveling across networks, right?
Everybody's trying to deploy AI, collect more data.
Remember, cybersecurity is the inspection business.
We inspect every bit or the TSA of the Internet, right?
Every bit has to go through a firewall.
Every bit has to go through a product that looks at the bid, say,
good bit, bad bit, bad bit stay away, good bit can go.
If you're going to explode the amount of traffic in technology in the world,
You're going to need more cybersecurity capabilities.
That's one.
That drives more traffic, drives more demand.
And the other part is capability.
AI models are good at certain things.
The question is, how can we take them,
take their false positive rate from 25% down to zero,
and leverage them in what we do.
And that's happening right now.
We're all looking at how to take certain categories of cybersecurity,
embed AI into them to make sure we build a better product
for the customer from a protection perspective.
And of course, like you said,
there's a third aspect where we can also,
use AI internally in our business to make it much more efficient. And I always maintain, as I said,
perhaps last time I was with you, that AI will democratize intelligence. Yeah. Which means the average.
Yeah. Yeah, you said, you said efficient, efficient. And it feels like you're a leader in this
efficiency moment where so many companies are token maxing. We saw $500 million bills going out. When I saw
the Palo Alto network's headline of using AI, using mythos to find critical bugs, the bill,
was token mined. I don't know what happened, but you only spent a million bucks. What's going on? Is this a
cultural thing? Are you already looking at ROI? Are you head of the ball there? Or are you being,
is it more like a scalpel? You use it just where you need. Like what is the actual token maxing,
token leaderboard, token ROI maxing? What are you doing? Well, remember, we have we have,
we have parsed our efforts into what is extremely critical in crown jewels. And we can't let open source
model, open models, touch them because we don't want our code to ever train anything in
the public domain.
It doesn't matter if whatever they tell us, I don't want my code training public domain.
So for that, we built our own harness.
We're using our own open source sequestered model, which can't talk to the external
world, so we know it's safe.
So how far code is going through that, we're not paying anyone for it.
We're using it ourselves and built it ourselves.
Is it going to be 100% of what's out in the public domain?
Probably not, but it's probably 85% or 90% there, and that's okay.
go deal with that. And on that is inference cost an issue yet? Are you burning GPUs to the
max and dealing with a half a million dollar bill? We're just using trained models to run it through
because we're using our task. We're not using them to go generate new stuff, right?
Got it. So that's one part of it. The other part is when it's stuff that is, I don't need
to spend expensive tokens for an IQ 180 to solve a customer support problem. I can use a
smaller language model. I can use an open source model solve that problem because it's task-specific.
So we're trying to be judicious about the use of AI, but at the same time, I think we're not using it as well as we should be using it.
I don't think anybody in the world, except unless your frontier AI model company has got it perfectly right in terms of how we need to use it.
So we've got to get up the learning curve and we'll get there.
I think the part which I was trying to say to you earlier, I think it's a very important point.
What AI is doing for me internally is, as I said, is democratizing intelligence.
The biggest risk in businesses is you hire a hundred marketing people, not all of them are equal.
fully good. So you all gravitate towards the 10 good ones, and you've got to find a way to deal
with the 10 really at the other end of the spectrum and, you know, 80 in the middle. The good news is,
if I train my model right with all my marketing data, I can increase the average intelligence
of all 100 of them to 95%. And I just need the judgment of the 5% from them, which means,
you know, it's a rising tide lifting all boats from an average intelligence perspective.
Yeah. If I can get the outcomes of 3,000 customer support people to be amazing,
And there's no disparity, no standard aviation.
I become highly effective, highly efficient, and pretty good at what I do.
Yeah.
Jordy, do you have something or can I keep going on?
What's your point of view on AI psychosis in the enterprise?
John and I have been talking.
There's a handful of our friends that we believe do have AI psychosis.
They're heavy users of the tools.
And you ask them what they've actually made.
made and they can't give you a good answer. Now, certainly there's an entire other category
that is being very productive, making useful things, but there's sort of a...
Like Tyler on our team. Tyler is extremely productive. Very low AI psychosis. You ask
if somebody just builds it immediately and it's there, usable, tangible. But it feels like
there's a lot of make work. Yeah, there's at least one model that has created a sort of psychosis
in the enterprise over the last six months.
And...
Not telling which one?
We don't need to name the specific model,
but there's like,
there's a,
there's the same maybe sycophancy
that you saw with 4-0,
with a consumer,
I think is touched the enterprise
in an interesting way.
Well, there's just this risk of having the AI model.
An employee goes to an AI model,
says, help me with this.
And then the AI model responds
in a sycophantic way, oh, yeah, you're making a major breakthrough.
You're making a huge impact at this company.
And it's just shuffling, you know, spreadsheets around re-contextualizing data, building analyst dashboards.
It's not actually moving the needle.
Again, it gets back to the ROI question.
And I feel like as a leader of a large organization that's very AI forward, this is something
that you'll have to contend with, you know, are my employees using AI tools effectively?
It's another question on just the effectiveness of embedding the tools.
Great question. I think we're past that stage at Palo Alto.
So what we did was we let people use AI models and AI tools to experiment,
to understand the out of the possible, train themselves.
Thankfully, we did it without token maxing.
So people have a good sense.
They use all kinds of tools to understand what they are.
But when it comes to enterprise efforts, we're past the stage that, you know,
we've got one great Tyler.
I'm sure Tyler's amazing.
I have 21,000 people.
You know, one great Tyler doesn't change my move-the-needle for 21,000 people in the company.
I think he could.
I'm going to take the other side of that, but I take your point.
You don't want me to take dollar away.
So what's why don't worry about?
You told me last time I was there, don't take my boy.
Keep your hands off.
Right.
So I'm sure we have our own dollars.
Don't worry about that.
We'll be fine.
But the more important part I'm trying to make is that now we sit and understand what are the 20 things we could do and how much scale impact would they have.
Yeah.
Right.
When if I say, let's refactor customer support, I have 3,000 people, let's train model, less train
intelligence, let's build harnesses, let's build diagnostic agents, let's understand the
problem using AI instead of human beings trying to diagnose it.
Now that, that's not a usable model.
That's almost like a business transformation project.
What data do I need to do?
How should my product behave?
What's the first agent that you want when you get the data?
What data is the customer have to give?
So it's re-imagining how we do the whole activity is a business transformation project.
I've got 30 people working on it.
They're not using AI tools.
They're embedding the LLM in a certain place.
They're sort of complementing
it machine learning.
They're complementing
with new knowledge bases.
They're complementing
with new data
that comes from my product.
So I'm trying to
reduce my false positive
down to low single digit.
I can't run
an enterprise business AI
with high false positive.
So to get it to low single digits
and a lot of programming
goes around it.
So the psychosis works
or happens
if you're just randomly
arbitrarily using models
to do certain things.
We're not doing.
Yeah.
And I think most importantly,
the psychosis sets in when you're letting the AI evaluate itself or tell you if it did a good job
instead of you knowing the ground truth. If you know that what it, you're looking at a false
positive, you're going to remain in reality. If you ask it, is it a false positive? It says,
no, it's not a false. This is the best result. Yesterday, I was doing my earnings, okay? I had Gemini
up in, for my script. I don't like the way it reads. Can he just give me alternate ways to say this?
So it has this feature called Refined, so I had to look at it.
I said refine, and I'm reading both of them.
My team had written that we simulated a cyber attack,
and it was possible in 24 minutes using Nupe for Trigger Eye models.
When I refined it, he said, we attacked in 24 minutes.
I'm like, shit, that's what I'm going to say.
Right?
So I can't let AI lose and not pay attention to what is doing.
I still need the human supervision.
I need the guardrail.
Yeah, yeah.
You have to know the ground truth.
That's the basic thing that can do wrong.
Yeah, exactly.
Talk to me about,
not the crazy AI doom Terminator scenario, but just I think that there is some anxiety around
AI and cybersecurity where you see these powerful models.
They're able to find vulnerabilities effectively.
And there's a fear that there might just be, you know, a rash of exploits that result in
like your some emails leaking or some social network data leaking and just just a leakier
internet that causes people to be like upset.
But my white pill on this, and I don't know if this is correct, is that the gap between private closed source frontier models and open source models appears to be widening.
And that feels like there's going to be an increase, maybe it's six months right now that you have access to the frontier models before it commoditizes.
If that grows, that gives me more confidence because I know you're going to go and clean up the internet and police it and be the TSA for longer.
if that gap was closing and all of a sudden it was, you know, open source,
and closed source model, you know, gets a new capability and the hackers have it next week.
I'm a little bit worried.
I think you could do it in a week, but it's much better to have you have six months.
But is that, am I interpreting that information correctly?
How afraid should normal people be about the risk to a leakier internet,
a less safe, less cybersecurity internet in the future?
So let's step back, you know.
All of us test our software on a constant basis
before we launch it.
We don't want to have vulnerability in our software.
Now, guess what?
Humans write bad code sometimes.
Surprise, surprise.
So what AI is doing is discovering that bad code.
And we've been testing our products,
and so is everybody else in the industry,
and every company does that.
And on average, we used to find four or five issues every month,
and we'd go build a patch, and we'll fix, you know,
108 products, we'll fix the patch every month
and put a patch out there.
What we found in the last,
six weeks was it would have taken us five to seven years to find.
Right.
So a huge deluge of vulnerabilities.
Of course, we have people.
We redirect with them.
We patched them.
We had to put out a bigger patch and go patch all of our customers.
So, and the point of that is that there'll be a lot of testing happening in the next two to six months already is.
With Opus 4.8 or, you know, Open AI 5.5 and other models out there.
There's a lot of testing going on in the industry across the board.
Everybody's testing their code.
All that code is going to get patched in the next few weeks, months.
That's what have you.
Now, there will be huge influx of patches to every IT department
because you've got to patch everything right away
because everybody showed up with all these patches.
So it's going to be bumpy.
But I think what we're going to be doing the next few to six months
is paying off a lot of technical debt.
We've accumulated our last many years.
It's bumpy, but it's a better starting point six months from now
than it is today.
So I'm an optimist.
I think if you're a better starting from six months from now,
the next model is going to find a lot fewer things than the last one found
because we had to deal with all the stuff that we found.
Well, the next one find.
something I'm sure it will.
But it may go back to finding five,
and we seem to have survived in a world
where there were five vulnerabilities found every month
by software vendors.
Now, the second problem, like you said,
is AI might be able to concatenate them
or daisy chain them and find a way to attack them faster.
For that, it's a different problem.
The vulnerabilities always exist.
When somebody attacks you, the question becomes,
how quickly can you find it and shut it down?
Now, that is a slightly longer-term problem
because that requires to have a much more modern stack,
requires you to have way more data to analyze anomalous behavior
and be able to defend against it.
But we'll get there.
Pay down all the technical debts,
start building technical equity.
I like to hear it.
Well, this is why AI is so exciting.
You can do five to seven years of work in a month.
It's amazing.
I think it's amazing.
The only thing we have is we have to find a way of getting 21,000 people
transformed without AI psychosis,
to amazing leverages of AI,
so they're using it in the day-to-day life
and trying to treat it as their assistant
as opposed to be afraid of it.
Yeah, I love it.
Last question.
I don't want to get too geopolitical,
but I want to know about America's compute advantage
or the AI race in the context of cybersecurity
because there has been this debate over
our data centers, the nuclear bombs,
or are the weights the nuclear bombs,
If the weights were stolen by a North Korean hacker firm,
they could wreak havoc.
But I don't know if that's real,
because I think you have to actually go and inference
these massive models, you know, millions of times
and test every little system to find the actual exploits,
to actually do the hacking.
And so another maybe white pill for, you know,
America and the American Internet remaining secure
is that as we build more infrastructure,
more data centers, more GPU,
racks, we are able to do more of good guy inference, more cybersecurity, more testing, and
our systems become more secure relative to the near-peer competitors that might want
to hack us, but have not invested enough in energy and compute capacity.
Well, let's back up.
Look, we're all eternal technology optimists, right?
We all, we're Silicon Valley.
We hang out here.
99% use cases we talk about AI are good use cases.
AI is doing amazing things, going to do drug discovery,
is going to do a whole bunch of positive stuff,
is going to get out of mundane things that we don't have to do.
So, generally, being an AI optimist is a good thing.
Does America have an advantage?
Yes, we are building on the last lead
in the technological revolution of the last round, go-round, right?
Where all the hypers live?
Where do all the large consumer tech companies live?
Where do all the cybersecurity companies live?
90% of live in the United States, right?
So we have the core of building the next wave of technology
in the back of the last amount of success we've had.
And I think all the efforts you're seeing,
whether you're seeing it from the recent executive order
on cybersecurity, whether you're seeing it around
investment in chips,
whether you're seeing it around investment in electricity,
everything else, we are trying to build the underpinnings
of building an amazing future with AI with us.
Now, does it mean there will be an edge case
of, you know, single-edge of percentage
where people will try and use for bad things?
Sure.
Every technology, every invention has had people using it for bad things.
Can you protect cases?
Yes, we will have.
protectings, will there be some notable missteps, most likely?
You know, it's happened we have 2,000 ransomware attacks a year.
We move on, we go solve them, life moves on, we fix them, we move through it.
So I think they have to take an optimistic outlook.
Can models be distilled?
Yes.
Can weights get reappropriated?
No, it doesn't look like you need to.
Because every three months, somebody seems to build the same capability open source.
They're picking it out.
And do they need a few months advantage or not?
I think they'll get the advantage.
I think the key is going to be is we have to keep sort of marching
along and making sure that our infrastructure is up to speed so we can actually match sort
of defense with the speed of offense can happen.
And it's always been an asymmetric battle.
Cybersecurity has always had to be right 100% of the time and the bad guys have right
once.
They don't need a lot of compute.
They can go rent compute and come after an enterprise as they so choose to do so.
And this game of cat and mouse will continue.
Last question.
How much of your time is spent on quantum?
A lot.
So what's interesting is we launched a capability where we can assess people's quantum cryptography readiness.
Yeah.
And we've built capability where we can wrap your traffic with quantum secure keys.
So even if you haven't upgraded infrastructure to quantum yet, there's a fear that quantum is succumbing.
And there are nation states who might be collecting data which they're going to harvest later when quantum becomes a reality, hoping they can hang on to classify data and break the keys afterwards.
So we're already wrapping the traffic now.
Yes.
That's really cool.
If you know there's classified data and you can start sucking the data, so I don't know what's in it, but it's classified.
But I'm going to break it as soon as quantum is ready.
And I'm pretty sure nation states will have quantum capability much before it's commercially available.
Wow.
That's amazing.
I love that you're already working on that.
That's so...
We have a quantum wrapper.
You can buy a wrapper from us.
You can go look at do full cryptographic inventory.
We can encrypt the traffic with quantum secure today across your sort of traffic nodes.
and make sure that your data can be intercepted.
I love it.
Thank you.
Thank you for doing that,
and then also thank you for coming on the show.
It's fantastic.
I'll catch up with you.
Congratulations on all the progress,
and thank you for canceling the SASPocalyps,
at least in cybersecurity.
We're going to cancel the SASPocalypse everywhere.
We're going to cancel all Apocalypseis eventually.
Sounds like a plan.
Have a great rest of your day.
Thank you so much.
We'll talk to you soon.
Goodbye.
Speaking of a company that canceled the SaaSpocalypse,
we got Bigma,
Meet agents meet the canvas your AI agents can now create and modify your Figma files with design system context and we got a timeline post here somewhat related to Figma design
Teddy said he couldn't decide on art to hang on his apartment walls so he built a drawing machine to decide for him
This is a very cool little hack project I guess that it will move the weights
So that it can draw on an X and Y axis it can generate an image and then it can draw a
it with a pencil or a pen that you reload and it can pick an image and draw a different thing every
day.
I thought there was a calling it a generative pen train transformer.
Yeah, Theodore.net.
What a good domain name for just an individual like solo creator.
It's a generative pre-trained transformer, pen trained transformer, of course.
We'll go check it out.
But we have our next guest in the waiting room.
We have Henry Stern from Privy.
Back on the show, welcome back.
How you doing?
Are you at the Rainforest Cafe?
Are you at the Rainforest Cafe?
The Rainforest Cafe.
I'm in Europe, because in fact, TBPN is the TBPN of Europe.
But I'm calling in from Amsterdam.
Yeah.
Fantastic.
What brings you to Amsterdam?
Work?
Money, 2020.
Okay.
And this is a FinTech Conference.
Yes.
And I imagine you're speaking.
Networking?
Yes.
All of the above.
We launched a few products.
We had a great launch with deal today to enable contractors to basically receive stable coins globally and do a number of things with them.
And then speaking, meeting customers, all of that.
Yeah.
Yeah, that makes a lot of sense.
Deal's been really ahead of curve on that.
So deals been dealing with stable coins for quite a long time.
Oh, yeah.
Did they have their own, like, in-house solution?
Like, what, what is the nature of the partnership?
How does it change?
What was the before era like?
So I think the before era, they had done a few products to enable people to, I believe.
They experimented a lot in the space, but this is basically the coming together, I think,
of the full package where they're doing three things, really.
One is enabling any business to pay out their contractors in stable.
So the contractor so chooses they can receive basically stable assets as payment,
no matter where they are.
and they're starting rollout in Argentina,
but moving a lot from there.
Two is they're basically putting out a wallet app.
It doesn't look like that at all.
It just looks like an account
where you can receive your payment,
but that allows you to basically hold a balance,
earn on the balance,
so really a savings account in many ways,
and then basically spent from the balance.
And so this is sort of the whole package
coming together in an exciting way.
And then the third thing is they are actually issuing
their own stable coins,
so they can have a lot more control over how the underlying treasury is managed and so on and so forth.
And so from the previous standpoint, I've been very focused on the wallets and how do you connect all of these pieces together.
But then obviously across Stripe, we've been working with them on a number of products.
So it's been kind of fun to watch all these products coming together really well.
Yeah.
So this is like the announcement from their side is really they have they're in consumer fintech now.
Exactly.
Very cool.
I imagine internationally there aren't like spending the stable coins.
I understand, you know, receiving for contractor payments makes a ton of sense.
Earning on the money that's in the account, that makes a ton of sense.
But I imagine actually living your life in any country, even in America.
It is still hard to go and spend stable coins, or is it not because there's credit card
infrastructure that can be tied in very quickly?
like what does it actually take to like run your life if you're a contractor in Brazil or
Egypt or Thailand and you make money from deal they pay you in stable coins you winds up in a
wallet you're very happy with your your interest that you're getting but then you want to go
live your life you want to pay your rent you also want to you effectively want to be able to
send wires and and peer to peer payments and also buy food and buy you know get money from an ATM
at some point like what how does that all work yeah that
That's a great question.
I think this is the part that's very exciting
is kind of how the whole space is getting stitched together.
So at a high level at this point,
there's just a huge explosion in the usage of stable coin cards
that enable you basically to settle directly on traditional rails
like Visa and MasterCard from your stable coin balance directly.
So for the merchant accepting it,
they don't have to think about this at all.
It's the same experience as that they were getting a purchase
from anyone else.
And then obviously in reverse,
we're doing a ton of work at Stripe to make sure that merchants can also accept stable coins directly
if the user has the balance and so on. So we're kind of working on the platform from both angles
to make sure it's completely multimodal. How high is the great wall of great firewall in China?
Like is there any stable coin penetration in China? Are people doing VPN stuff? Or is it? Because
there were some tech company, Apple obviously wound up at working with China.
effectively. Airbnb was over there for a while as if you wanted to rent a place because,
you know, it's not like the countries are actively fighting. It's, you know, it's a tense
rivalry, but there are companies that have been successful there. At the same time,
Facebook, not successful. Google, not successful. Uber sort of, you know, was unable to get a
foothold there. Tesla, doing very great. Model Y sell over there. So what is stable coin adoption?
Does China have their own ecosystem or is there some crossball an
No, so today, I think the situation has changed over time, but basically today, very much
remote and in a sense and not an active part of what's happening.
So we don't, for this particular, you know, speaking for privy, we don't have customers that we
serve there in terms of stable coins because very specifically it isn't something that's running.
So it's a, you know, the approach is very much, the technology itself, in a sense, this is a file
format for money, right? You're kind of sleeving your fiat into a digital asset. And the way I like
to think about is like different, you know, stable coins are like different formats. So, you know,
we accept JPEGs and PNGs just the same. But then ultimately, getting currency on the ground in
every country depends on the local regulation. And in this case, China is very much not open to
stable coins today. Interesting. Yeah. More and more and more and more capital controls.
Yeah, I mean, yeah, makes a ton of sense because you load a bunch of stable coins and then you transfer all your money out of the country.
Are you tracking any?
Like, is there like a mirror industry, like an indigenous Chinese digital yuan effort that's getting traction?
Because like there's been a whole, you know, open source AI movement.
I'm wondering if there's, you know, Chinese versions of crypto projects that are actually maybe, you know, six months behind.
It's a great question.
I mean, to be honest, I don't know.
I think the honest take is twofold, which is one, we've seen a ton of adoption in the U.S.
since Genius and with a lot of what's happening around clarity.
And so that's kept us quite busy, likewise, you know, in Europe.
And then the adoption in Latam and other parts of Southeast Asia is huge.
There's a really vibrant set of communities in Singapore, in Korea.
So there is a lot happening in the region generally.
But I just haven't seen that much by way of companies.
working in mainland China doing this sort of thing.
So I couldn't tell you, to be honest.
So in terms of maybe other countries that are the fastest adopters,
it feels like America is on the frontier here, clear regulation, some more coming down
the pipe, a lot of the companies are based here.
Is there, who's in second?
What country is leaning in the most to stable coins broadly?
It's a great question.
And I think part of it is that today by nature, at least it's a very cross-border technology.
So it ends up being pairs, basically, as you go along.
And so there's very good corridors, for example,
U.S. to Mexico, we serve a company called Felix Pago
is doing like 5% of the U.S. to Mexico remand's corridor.
And I think that's like $60 billion a year.
So it's a really meaningful, the entire corridor is $60 billion here,
but it's a really meaningful pair.
Likewise, I talked to a company not too long ago
that was trying to help with reminses from the UAE to India.
And so you've basically got these pairs as you go
the most leaned in though
Mexico is doing a lot and there's a lot of clarity
there and then we're seeing just generally
a lot of activity in Latam so that's where a lot of the
volumes are happening
very cool well what does
new startup formation look like
in in stable coin
in the stable coin market
broadly look like at this moment in time
I'm sure you get pitched all the time
as an angel, but for a lot of these, it feels like in a lot of these categories, there is now a
category leader and maybe less opportunity, even though we're getting so much adoption.
Yeah, it's a great question. I think basically there's like two types, right? There's very pure
software plays, and I think I think Privy was such a company in that we run, you know,
cryptographic infra to enable people to do things. And then there's a lot of people who want to
take care of like the data piping on the ground in various countries.
So I think of these as money pipes in a sense,
and you've got the software layer,
and then you've got the connections into local banking systems.
And so we are seeing a lot of things happening,
trying to build better APIs, better abstractions on top of the aggregation.
But I think there's actually a huge gap in building localized partnerships
because there's really hard, obviously,
in any of the individual countries that you can do.
So that's one.
And then the other, frankly,
is we're seeing a lot of stuff around agentic commerce
with people basically trying to build better control systems
for agents to actually take these assets
and pay with them.
So this isn't actually stable coin specific.
There's a lot happening in Fiat as well
and Strips doing a ton in the space,
but it's broadly around like service discovery.
How can you find what you can pay for
and actually connect into it?
It's around the actual protocols for delivering payment
really easily via sort of agenic interfaces,
LLMs and so on.
And it's about being able to actually sort of
meet or spend so you don't get wrecked if your agent hallucinates. So those are probably like two
of the super active areas that we're seeing. And then we're seeing just a lot more adoption is
something that struck me at this, this, this, you know, money 2020 and Amsterdam, which is
a lot more institutional adoption, including from like larger banks and players who historically
have been, have been kind of waiting to come in. Amazing. Well, very cool. Enjoy the conference.
Thank you so much for calling it. I'm sure it's late there. Enjoy the rainforest cafe.
Enjoy the rainforest cafe. And we'll talk to you soon.
Great to see you, Henry.
Have a great rest of your day.
Goodbye.
Let me tell you about Shopify.
Shopify is the commerce platform that grows with your business and lets you sell in seconds,
online, in store, on mobile, on social, on marketplaces.
And now with AI agents.
You know, I think the AI, agentic commerce could be big because if you get hit with, like,
a $500 million bill for your agentic AI, you might not, it might be over the wire limit.
So you might need to use, you might need to transfer like tens of thousands of Bitcoin, low fees.
this is valuable. That's the future of agentic commerce potentially.
Who knows?
For all the people getting hit with half a billion dollar bills.
It happens to the best of us sometimes.
Well, our next guest is Alexander Good.
In post-fiat.
Welcome to the show. How are you doing?
What's happening?
Hey, what's up?
Not too much.
Great to have you on.
On a Wednesday.
Oh, man, I can't hear you guys.
Okay, we'll try and fix that.
I will tell everyone about MongoDB in the meantime.
What's the only thing faster than the AI market?
Your business on MongoDB.
Don't just build AI.
Own the data platform that powers it.
And let's see if Alexander could.
We hear us.
We can hear you.
We can hear you.
We can hear you.
You can't hear that.
We need to put up text on the screen that says that we can hear him.
And then he will know.
We need update the Chiron.
We can hear you.
Joe Wisenthal is tracking the popularity of various running shoe brands.
He says on R slash running shoe geeks,
one out of 18 posts mentioned a major Chinese running shoe brand.
Just last quarter, it was one out of 40.
Lee Ning is the big one.
Lee Ning, of course, signed a shoe endorsement contract with...
Golden State Warrior star, Steph Curry.
Very interesting.
I mean, haven't the basketball shoes been made in China for a long time?
That was, like, the whole Nike thing.
But I guess it's like the brand now is bigger.
No, that's a big, that's...
It's...
Yeah.
Chinese companies have acquired, you know, a bunch of brands, like Arcterics, things like that.
that. And the next step is to actually get meaningful consumer penetration with their own brands.
The one that Americans like the most that comes from China. It's got to be DJI, right?
Yep.
Drone, videographer, weather photos.
Bernie was using, like, Bernie was using a-
I know it's a controversial company because people see it as industrial capacity. But if you're just like,
I, my only, I don't think about geopolitics, but I like that my wedding video had a
in it and it was a DJI drone.
You think about that very positively.
Has sort of a GoPro aspirational brand.
Is there anything else that pops up as Chinese brands
that are loved in America?
I can't really think of anything in particular.
Obviously, tons of stuff gets made there.
But anything on the top of your mind?
Every product on Amazon that has a name that...
Yeah, but that's not...
I was going to say hoverboards,
but they didn't have a brand.
And a lot of the cars aren't here.
I believe that they would be popular
if you could get a hypercar for $20,000 like that they make over there.
Timu or Sheen?
Are those like really loved brands in the same way that like,
DJI feels a lot closer to like a Nike brand or an Apple brand than Sheen or Timu?
Timu seems more like a Walmart brand.
I agree with you.
It's popular.
Like it's certainly brand recognition is there, but in terms of brand admiration.
I don't know.
Can we play this video from Instagram explaining the new Call of Duty map form?
They're getting into generative level design.
It's not Gen AI.
It's not fully transformer base,
but they're creating a whole bunch of different pieces of the pie
and they remix them.
Let's play it.
Other like slabs.
And we're able to randomize that at runtime when you're playing.
Three slabs on the map.
They randomize them every time you load in the map.
That is 100.
We have the content to do upwards of 900.
When you play a multiplayer game for a while, like you have this sense of discovery each time you play a new map,
but that kind of quickly fades, right?
You've played that map maybe five, ten times.
You're like, I get it.
I know all the places.
That never fades with Killblock.
I see this as an existential risk.
I think this might be the end of TBPN.
I think that once this goes live and we're playing this in the Ultrodome, we're not going to remember to go live because we're just going to be gaming too much.
It's entirely possible.
I don't know.
I keep coming back to Russ.
Yeah. If it ain't broke, don't fix it?
I'm so happy.
Okay.
Like, Rust, for me, is like a vacation destination that you have so many good memories.
Yeah, you don't want it remixed.
And you're just like, no, I'm good.
I like going to this beach, this place.
Okay.
And I'm happy to keep going back.
He's a Luddite.
He's a Luddite, folks.
Anyway, we have Alexander Good in the waiting room.
Let's bring him in and see if he can hear us.
How you doing?
Can you hear us now?
Can you hear me?
Yeah, fantastic.
How you doing?
And fantastic green screen background or Zoom background.
Yeah, it's the new AI.
Yeah.
It's very powerful.
Great to finally have you on the show.
I've enjoyed your posts and some of your rants.
You have some of the best rants on the internet.
I appreciate that.
I've been looking forward to this.
Yeah.
How would you introduce yourself these days?
Like how much of just, I mean, I guess set the table
for people, give us a little bit of backstory and your thesis right now.
Cool.
Yeah, I used to be an army.
I worked at Citigroup, Palantir, Ballyasne, started a company, sold it.
And then I got into crypto.
And AI changed a lot of, obviously, what I was working on and what many people were
working on.
And I was really just trying to figure out how to, you know, I got very, very pilled early on
on the idea that AI would just destroy people's work product.
And a lot of people are getting on that train now,
but I guess I was on it in 2023.
So a lot of the rants were coming from processing that
and going through my own AI psychosis.
And now I'm like post-psychosis.
Now I'm just like in a code.
I'm in a codex terminal working on building a protocol
that hopefully can move the needle for people who own it.
And also, you know,
just our investors.
A lot of money, like flow, a lot of like attention, money, everything flowed from
crypto to AI.
There was even that meme.
Like if you're in crypto, pivot to AI, has, has AI strengthened your belief in crypto?
Like, what do you think the intersection is?
Because a lot of people jump to like, well, the agents will need, they wouldn't possibly
figure out stripes.
So they'll have to use a token.
And I've never really believed that fully.
I think that there's some opportunity there.
but it feels like the AI trends, you're a believer in that, but also your faith in crypto broadly
has not been shaken and you haven't like pivoted or like gone to like the hot thing, which is not,
it's just less common these days, I think.
Yeah, I mean, let's be honest.
The intersection of crypto and AI has not been a particularly good intersection so far.
There's been a lot of, you know, hacking events.
Every human piece of code that's ever been written is being about.
by agents right now, which is obviously created like an acceleration in hacking.
X402 has kind of like gotten exploited, right?
So, you know, there's been, you know, there's this kind of, you know, you can prompt engineer
agents to send you money and that's like not a good thing if you're running a protocol.
So it's like, do you really want a protocol that can just like send people money?
I think the thing that's kind of kept me in the space or kept me excited about the space is
I was always kind of fundamentally in this because of something I called the Doom thesis,
which is that, you know, AI might not cause productivity to accelerate.
It might actually accelerate, you know, the kind of onset of the surveillance state
or, you know, basically a type of world where capital is going to flee the system.
And I think that thesis is very much intact.
I think that's why you're seeing a lot of crypto like Zcash run very, very aggressively.
And I think that's going to continue to be a story.
I think that's why Teal moved to Argentina.
I think it's sort of like, you know, it's in motion.
Where are you on Bitcoin versus other coins?
I mean, obviously you mentioned Zcash.
Like, how strong do you think the Bitcoin thesis is these days?
And how much maxiness needs to be considered in that thesis?
The Bitcoin thesis is getting weaker by the day.
You have privacy coins accelerating in terms of their adoption.
I think it's notable.
So, you know, the European Union and other countries try to kill Manero and we're not successful at that.
You know, the tornado cash rulings in the United States have given clarity to coins like railgun, which are smaller, but are good tech and Vitalik uses it.
And, you know, their big privacy summits.
And Bitcoin is fundamentally not private technology.
And it also has the unfortunate sort of leverage concentration from Michael Saylor, who has, you know, issued a lot of preferred and
complex convertible financial instruments on top of it, which have kind of concentrated the
ownership and the liquidity profile. And now is kind of driving a market downturn. Right.
So today's STRC drop as well as micro strategies equity situation are driving down moves in Bitcoin.
And unfortunately, like, it's hard to see that structurally reversing.
Do you know if there's been a material impact on crypto from not just the capital markets moving around and founders and employees pivoting to AI, but the actual mining operations pivoting to AI?
Because a lot of the neoclods that we know, they got their start in crypto mining and they're sort of out of that market.
Is that actually affecting crypto in any way? I haven't really followed it.
Yeah, I mean, it's interesting CoreWeave.
You guys might know, Vance at Framework, you know, he had a fantastic return for his fun, partly because, you know, CorWeave literally pivoted out of crypto into AI.
And they're the OG pivot story.
So they were like pre-Jason Calacanis.
They did it.
Yeah.
You know the J-Cal post, if you're in crypto, pivot to AI in like 2023.
It was post-chat TVT, so it was a little bit late.
But it turned out to be, you know, cracked for a lot of people.
Yeah.
A lot of companies launched.
Impressed.
Yeah.
So, yeah, I mean, like, there is an interesting thing going on right now.
You guys are probably going to hear about something called Pearl relatively soon.
It's aggressively backed.
There's rumors that thrive is in it.
And, you know, the TLDR is that it's a proof of work AI coin.
And basically, there's a paper that came out in late 20,
25 by S.G. Ling, which talks about determinism in basically GPUs, which allows you to use AI to mine cryptocurrency.
And so this is something my brother started working on with Ambien, which got backed by A16Z.
And then Pearl is an Israeli team, which is doing something kind of like similar.
They're using map mole mining.
And they have a partnership with together AI.
They got tweeted out.
And so, so, you know, essentially the argument that a lot of these crypto AI protocols,
increasingly are trying to make is something called useful proof of work, which is the idea that
you have a miner that can also deploy a service. So, you know, my brother is delivering verified
inference. And then the pearl argument is that you can basically buy GLM, not GLM, it's Gemma
on Together AI for a 25% discount because the miners are subsidizing it. Now, the funky thing is that, like,
you can also buy it for like 50% less than their subsidized version on open router, right?
So you're like you're kind of like market cap dependent.
You need this thing to really, really move in order for it to provide a meaningful subsidy.
But, you know, there's an argument that I think the compelling zoomed out argument is that, you know, TSMC back in 2017 or 2018, you know, 10% of their product was Bitcoin A6.
And now it's like way less than 1%.
And so if you're like, okay, you want to secure money with proof of work, very, very high level, it's like, why wouldn't you secure it with GPUs?
You know, there are arguments why you wouldn't, right? Because you're like, it's because you're literally burning GPUs, which are productive assets to secure this thing, which is even worse than burning energy for Bitcoin mining. But that's kind of a separate argument, right?
How separate is this from the render token, render network from Octane, where individual computers or, or, or, you know,
folks with compute would, would render CGI frames and then earn a token. It was not nearly as
decentralized. And then I know Prime Intellect was working on this as well, trying to sort of wrap,
spare compute and, and put it on a network that was sort of transacted with a coin,
intermediated by that coin. It sounds like this is at a much lower level. Is that correct?
It's in a fun, yeah, it's an architecture level. One, a render in a lot of these coins,
including BitTensor actually are stake coins, right?
So they're not actually secured by the operation of a GPU.
So this is kind of like this Pearl thing is a regime shift.
And it's trading it, you know, like a $2 billion FDV on private.
Sure.
There's there's token sale.
So it's starting to move.
It's a relatively new story in crypto AI.
You know, my protocol is like a completely different bet.
you know, my essential, I think there are some interesting intersections of crypto and AI that people are probably less focused on, which is that, you know, all of crypto is open source. So actually when you use Codex or you use these AI agents, they're like phenomenally good at, you know, crypto work because it's in the training data. And it's all open source. So if you screw something up, you can just be like, hey, can you just double check this with railguns implementation to make sure that we're doing the same thing? And then like,
you know, five minutes later, you have like a working, you know,
orchard shielded transaction on a truly different network.
As opposed to like some Fortran code that's locked in some old financial institution.
It's never seen the light of day.
Not going to be in the training set whatsoever.
Exactly.
And so there's like an OPEX efficiency argument in crypto because historically,
crypto has been like a very wasteful industry.
You know, there's like a lot of money spent on conferences and just like, you know,
the Ethereum Foundation is like a good example of like how not to run a company.
It's sort of like there's a lot of waste in crypto and AI is like crypto is like the ultimate software industry where you're like, okay, I could credibly reduce engineering by like, you know, 60% here.
How are you thinking about AI psychosis? You said you went through it. You got to the other side. Like what's the state of AI psychosis? Where's it showing up? Is it bearish if someone hasn't fallen in and then climb their way out?
True. A true Luddite versus the, you know, white pill.
got through the trough of disillusionment
is in the plateau of productivity.
It's like a trough of illumination.
Yeah, something, I don't know.
But how are you thinking about it?
Where's it cropping up?
Where is it bad?
What does it take to get out of it if you're in it?
Well, you kind of converge on this like conclusion, right?
You start with a psychosis.
And the threat of the psychosis is that my work is not meaningful.
And that everything that I've done is basically meaningless
because an AI will be able to do it better.
Sure.
And then you actually start in calmsia,
countering the tools and you're like, okay, in the areas I don't understand AI is really good,
but in the areas I deeply understand, AI is like pretty bad, right?
You know, there's not like a TBPN where there's like two AI avatars that are doing a better job than you guys.
I mean, maybe the new A16Z one is that and we just don't realize it right.
It could just be that those guys are running a really, really advanced AI system.
There's some evidence of that, I think.
I think there's some evidence of that.
I'm not going to discount the possibility.
But essentially you're like, all right, this is a, this is kind of directionally going to
obsolete my work.
Yeah.
And so I better be the first person to obsolete it, right?
Like that's sort of where the race can end up.
So the way that you get out of the AI psychosis is you say like the only way out is through, right?
So you're like, all right, how do I literally automate everything that I did before?
And then how do I also just like start to think about network effects that were impossible
previously?
So I'll give you an example.
like, you know, I'm working with, there's a pretty robust community with my crypto project,
and we have what we call the data lake.
And the data lake is basically like, you know, hundreds of contributors who are doing tasks all day,
and then their aggregate intelligence gets kind of like, you know, summed up by an AI,
and it comes up with actionable trade ideas, right?
And it's sort of like, you're like, okay, you can make all kinds of alt data now.
I think, you know, Palantir kind of inspired me originally when they started,
talking about how well they're doing with corporates when they're like, hey, like, we have the biggest
strategy, you know, we have the best demand story in history to take unstructured data and turn
into structured data. And like, okay, that's cool in a corporate and government context,
but like nobody's ever done that with our Wall Street bets, right? Or like nobody's ever done
that with trading information. And I'm like, okay, like, I'm just going to do that. I'm going to
take the Palantir ontology method and apply it to, you know, a group of individuals who create,
you know, market alpha. And so then that's how you get out of AI psychosis. You can sort of identify,
like, what new capability does AI enable that allows you to generate the type of edge that
you would have historically just with a new kind of data primitive. So it's like, okay, like,
you need to have a story for how you use AI to get out. That's the short answer. Yeah, it's interesting.
we're sort of at this moment where, yeah, the AI is replacing a lot of things, but I mean, at least as an entrepreneur, like, I don't know that the moats have actually changed because people are saying like, oh, like Saspocalypse, like your big pile of code is no longer a moat. But if you go back and look at the literature, whether it's zero to one or Hamilton Helmer, Seven Powers, like big pile of code was never a moat. It was always cornered resource, brand, network effect, complex.
complex coordination, like these other things that were not just, oh, yeah, you were the first person
to build a lot of momentum around a piece of SaaS, and you've accumulated so much technology
and software that that is your mode.
It was always something else.
But I don't know.
How are you thinking about entrepreneurship outside of trading, outside of, just like the startup
before.
Before I wanted to ask how you think market cycles are evolving.
we were joking in Q4 of last year that we were like, great, like the Bears win, like the bubble, the bubble did pop, right?
It did feel like it deflated, you had a big sell-off, yeah.
It deflated, you had a big sell-off, and then you got a new paradigm that came, you know,
it came at the right moment and kind of re-ignited a lot of, you know, excitement and, you know, revenue and all the, all the good things that you want to see.
during a technology cycle.
But it feels like, you know,
everything's been massively sped up.
But I'm wondering,
I'm wondering how you're,
what your kind of mental model is for market cycles today.
Well, the interplay of AI and the market itself is kind of accelerated.
So the way that people interact with markets has changed.
So they're now very commonly pasting a transcript
or pasting a company's earnings release into an,
AI system. And those AI systems have biases, right, that are quite separate from the biases that
humans have. So I'll give you an example. Like the company, ASML is extremely complex. Like,
as a human listener to the earnings call, you would be asleep halfway through the earnings call.
If you paste that into Claude Opus 4.8, it loves it. It's like, wow, this is like the most interesting
cutting edge. Like, I don't even believe this is true. Let me web search that. You know, Claude is highly engaged
with ASML in a way that a human kind of wouldn't mean.
And the really esoteric bottleneck.
Well, there are humans that would be.
There's just like a very small number of them in the world.
And now there's effectively infinite, right?
There are.
And so some of these stocks that are pumping like HPE, you know, like I used to trade
this thing back when I was in a hedge fund, it is the most boring company in the world.
And this guy, David Gills, who lives down the street from me, you know, it's like,
we were trading meme stocks and now he's trading HPE.
right and so it shows you you know this is like a buyback like 70 year old guys like we're you know not nothing against wearing suits or anything but you know it wasn't an exciting story now it's like okay now it has triple digit you know data center growth and it's it's the things that are going up are kind of historically stocks that retail would have never thought of and a lot of them like sand disk and like micron you know i know one woman who's like you know i inherited an account for my my growered
grandparents that had a ton of Intel,
micron, and sandiskin. And I'm like, yeah,
it's like literally like, you know, 75-year-old people were
owning these stocks because they thought they were like reliable
bellwethers. And these are the things that are up, you know,
300%. So,
so I think,
I think just like the market composition is really different.
You know, if you look at Coinbase, it's like got substantial
sequential revenue deceleration.
So, you know, people are not investing in Solana.
They're investing in HPE.
And so, you know, the sort of B-to-B focus of the markets has completely changed.
And I think that's going to continue to be the case.
Like, I think people are going to continue to engage with extremely complex equity stories
in like a way that they just never would have before.
And I think that benefits like a lot of, you know, for example, in my industry,
I think it is going to benefit coins with more complex technology stories.
I think Zcash is a good example, where it's like, okay, like there are encryption technologies that are moving forward that are esoteric that are hard to understand that wouldn't have generated engagement before.
But now, like, the UX of the user interacting with is like, I just copy, paste of this into Claude and it says it's the best.
Sure, sure.
How does lore play into those stories?
I feel like I heard, I don't know if it's Zcash, but there was one about like they brought eight people to,
together and they all had different pieces of the key and they were all like they brought a journalist with and they were different computers and they broke the computers and it was like building all this lore. Obviously this is like extremely lore filled. Even the Vitalik story is like, you know, build something you want. Like and it feels like the like starting the perpetual motion machine of some of these projects is important. How does that change? You know, I want to say lore becomes less.
important.
Just because the stories that I just shared with you, you know, like HPE or some of Intel, like,
nobody knows who Intel CEO is, right?
It's like, and it's like nobody is like invested in this story.
Are you saying they still think Pat Gelsinger's around in the place or what?
I think people just don't know, right?
I think that's the sort of real stories of Micron.
Like I don't think people know what Micron does.
It's like a trillion dollar, you know, memory bottleneck company.
And so I think lore becomes less important in one way.
The more contrarian view that I have is that IP universes become a lot more valuable.
And so, for example, you know, one of the, there's a lot of AI stuff about Harry Potter distills, right?
So you can, like, extract 98% of Harry Potter out of Deep Seek or Quad if you're motivated.
And so it's like it wasn't supposed to train on it.
There's the big LibGen settlement with Anthropic, like they did.
train on it and there's a big multi-billion dollar payout. But it's like that kind of
multi-billion dollar payout creates a strong incentive to kind of have IP treatment in a proper
way going forward. And so, you know, Games Workshop, for example, has, you know, the
cinematic universe, which is World of Warcraft that becomes infinitely generative when you combine
it with an AI system. And actually, like, what you get from like AMD or where, why this is, I think
interesting is that you've seen like a big structural crowding out of entertainment because of
the enterprise focus of AI. So Anthropic, for example, like if you listen to Dario, he's like,
yeah, I'm not going to ever generate videos or images because like that's just a waste of time, right?
Like he's not, you know, open AI shut down SORRA. Yeah, we had, we had Mikey, we had Mikey from
Suno on today announcing a big round, but he has had the blessing of a lot of his would be, you know,
the most intense competitors he could have have had to just deprioritize entertainment
because it might be a $20 billion market instead of a $2 trillion market.
Yeah, and that's sort of like the interesting Gvon's paradox argument, in my opinion,
is that like right now, for example, Nintendo is down, you know, 40% over the last year, right?
Or, you know, take two is like getting, even though they're, you know, we've got a new GTA
game is getting smoked. And there was a narrative that like for a while that, you know,
video games would be a big beneficiary of AI because intuitively we see all these like, like,
wow, like what if all NPCs were, you know, LLMs or, you know, what if you had in game
generative content? And the reality is given the cost structures right now and the bottlenecks,
you're like, okay, um, that's just not affordable, right? You can't generate real time
generative characters and expect to break even on that because that would be like,
you know, $6 per game session, and that's not a good investment.
And as AI gets cheaper, that story is actually going to change, right?
So I think that's like an interesting kind of like, like where we're going is I actually
think we're going to get like a big acceleration in entertainment stuff because the cost of
AI stuff is going to get.
Yeah, you'd have to imagine that like the, the, the most like mildly bullish take on take two
would just be like, yeah, the next GTA game is going to take.
seven years instead of 10 or like our DLC is going to be pulled forward by three months and that's
going to accelerate earnings like that seems very that seems very believable but yeah people have
been caught up in all sorts of oh maybe it'll just generate it all maybe it'll all go to
some foundation model but that does seem further away even when we see you know amazing demos from
Google but again it's like six seconds here and there very expensive not really persistent
Yeah, how was Roblox done over the last year?
Because that was always my thesis there.
Yeah.
It's just, it's going to be a lot easier for somebody to figure out how to make compelling games.
But down 50% in the last six months.
Yeah.
Yeah, these things are very, very bleak.
Very bleak.
Shouldn't be.
Anyway, hopefully they build back.
I'm optimistic.
I like Roblox.
Well, thank you so much for coming on the show.
Yeah, it was great to finally have you on.
Yeah, it was a great hang.
Let's do it. Let's do it again.
Let's do it again, see you.
Have a good one.
Goodbye.
There's one more announcement we've got to share.
Andrew and NASCAR are teaming up to sell a $14,000 VR racing rig simulator.
Palmer Luck.
He's back in the VR business.
I mean, he already was with the Eagle Eye headset, but he's back in the consumer entertainment
VR industry with this.
Of course, he's not making the actual headset.
I believe it is a...
Really three days after I just put down a deposit on my own.
Really? Yeah. Did you actually? Yeah. No way. But I don't think that's going to be
That's going to be very specific, I imagine. Yeah. For I imagine NASCAR simulation, right? Because that's where they're
focused, but very, very cool. Matthew Prince over at Cloudflare says, well, that happened faster than I
predicted. Thought it would be end of 2027 than early 2027, but agentic traffic growing so fast that
bots have now passed human traffic online for the first time in the internet's history.
That's crazy. Lots of agents running around on the internet.
Yeah, bots are now, according to Cloudflare, 57.5%.
Every time you fire something off, it's hundreds of pages. You see it in the reasoning traces
and the tool calls. Let's watch this demo from Eric Gleiman, friend of the show, sponsor of the show,
introducing stack, the AI operating system that lets accounting firms take on more clients without hiring,
learns your firm's process, runs the clothes, posts the journals, fully auditable. We're living
through the biggest shift in accounting since the spreadsheet. That's a good way to frame it.
And they did a very cool video for this, all practically produced. I believe this was all shot
with an actual camera. They got these actual pieces. They filmed this. Not CGI. Not.
AI.
And accuracy are not negotiable.
These one-off experiments...
Such a calming, boys.
I love Eric doing the VL.
It's great.
One secure place to orchestrate AI
co-workers for accounting.
From day one...
This has been the vision of Ramp since they launched,
and it feels like, oh, this is the moment.
Of course they have to do an AI thing,
but they've been like pitching this exact thing
since, what, 2020, 2019?
And working on it long.
you go back to Paris.
Every client and it learns over time.
Always giving you the final say before anything gets posted and every action it takes
is fully recorded and auditable.
The more you build, the lighter the work gets and the more clients you can take on.
Stack.
Ram stack.
They're saying it's God mode.
It's God mode for encounters.
It's literally God mode.
It's literally God mode.
Uh, well, go check it out.
Uh, we should also.
watch this one last video from Martin Scorsese, Black Forest Labs. I have alluded to it earlier.
I saw this on Instagram and I really enjoyed it 30 seconds of Martin Scorsese, storied filmmaker.
Jordie, name your favorite Martin Scorsese movie.
Doesn't feel modern. A town, not a village, not a city.
A medieval.
Mafia, the movie Mafia.
Isn't there, is the godfather?
There is a movie.
Isn't it?
The godfather.
Godfather.
No, that's a...
I am.
You're thinking the Irishman, maybe.
That is like a mafia movie.
Gangs of New York.
No, you think Goodfellas.
Or maybe Casino or Goodfellas.
Goodfellas.
Anyway, play this.
I was not paying attention.
Let's try it.
And we'll go from what you think.
You need a place that doesn't feel modern.
A town, not a village, not a city.
Almost medieval.
Even the streets are narrower.
Cobblestone.
The main road through the town
is twisting and turning.
Put the camera higher looking down
to Mill would have his production designers
to oil paintings.
This is that, in a sense,
conveys a cinematic, a cinematic intelligence.
Cinematic intelligence is a good tagline
for Black Forest Labs.
I thought that was really, really good.
And yeah, what a way to like, you know, hammer.
Obviously, I'm filmmaking, deeply controversial,
but you get Martin Scorsese talking about it
and he's at least going to perk up people's ears
and they're going to listen to what he has to say.
And think about it, is it a tool?
Could it be useful in a workflow?
Could it speed something up?
Is it going to make the next Martin Scorsese movie?
Probably not this year,
but will he potentially be using it
when he's thinking about what to work on next?
Sure.
So, fun project and very cool video from Black Forest Labs.
Anyway, tomorrow we have a special show,
but we will still see you at 11.
am Pacific.
Sharp.
Sharp.
And leave us five stars on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
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And we will see you tomorrow.
We love you.
Have a lot of evening.
