TBPN Live - New OpenAI Hardware Device, Google I/O Reactions | Erik Prince, Anthony Pompliano, Scott Wu, David Senra, Joe Wiesenthal, Nikunj Handa

Episode Date: May 21, 2025

TBPN.com is made possible by: Ramp - https://ramp.comFigma - https://figma.comVanta - https://vanta.comLinear - https://linear.appEight Sleep - https://eightsleep.com/tbpnWander - https://wa...nder.com/tbpnPublic - https://public.comAdQuick - https://adquick.comBezel - https://getbezel.com Numeral - https://www.numeralhq.comPolymarket - https://polymarket.comFollow TBPN: https://TBPN.comhttps://x.com/tbpnhttps://open.spotify.com/show/2L6WMqY3GUPCGBD0dX6p00?si=674252d53acf4231https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/technology-brothers/id1772360235https://youtube.com/@technologybrotherspod?si=lpk53xTE9WBEcIjV(04:06) - New OpenAI Hardware Device (34:49) - Google I/O Reactions (38:49) - U.S. Formally Accepts Luxury Jet From Qatar (58:20) - Erik Prince. Erik is the founder of Blackwater, a private military company that provided security services to the U.S. government and other clients worldwide. He is a former Navy SEAL and now focuses on logistics, security consulting, and international ventures in defense and energy. (01:29:17) - Anthony Pompliano. Anthony is an investor and entrepreneur best known for his advocacy of Bitcoin and hosting The Pomp Podcast. He is a former product manager at Facebook and Snapchat and now invests across early-stage tech and digital asset companies. (01:45:14) - Nikunj Handa. Nikunj is a machine learning engineer and writer focused on AI systems, model architecture, and deployment at scale. He shares insights through his newsletter and has built a large following for his clarity on cutting-edge AI topics. (01:59:47) - David Senra. David is the creator and host of the Founders podcast, where he explores the lives and lessons of history’s most iconic entrepreneurs. His breakdowns of business biographies have built a loyal following among founders, operators, and investors. (02:19:58) - Scott Wu. Scott is the co-founder and CEO of Cognition AI, the company behind Devin, the world’s first AI software engineer. A former programming champion, he now leads efforts to push the boundaries of autonomous AI development. (02:41:17) - Joe Wiesenthal. Joe is an editor at Bloomberg and co-host of the Odd Lots podcast, where he covers markets, macroeconomics, and financial systems. He is known for his sharp real-time analysis and engaging interviews with economists, traders, and technologists.

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 You're watching TVBN! Today is Wednesday, May 21st, 2025. We are live from the Temple of Technology, the fortress of finance, the capital of capital. I still have to send the call in post, letting everyone know what we're talking about today. And that's why I'm a little bit behind on you. You got a little bit of a lag, but if you want, John,
Starting point is 00:00:20 we can just all get a bit of a laugh out of you. No, no, no, no. No one's laughing at me. The studio audience does not find this funny. There is nothing funny about what's going on in the news. We got OpenAI. They bought Johnny Ive's secret AI company, I.O., for $6.5 billion.
Starting point is 00:00:37 We got reactions to Google I.O. I have been calling everyone I know who works at Google to try and get me more VO3 credits because I can't get enough of it. Max it out by like 6 a.m. I max it out immediately. It's fantastic, the videos are extremely impressive. There's still crazy hallucinations, we'll dig into it,
Starting point is 00:00:55 but it's a lot of fun. Highly recommend you go and fork over the $500 a month, I think it is, for the premium plan. You can get it for 50% off right now. I'm now, yeah, 50% off, so I think they hit me with 350, 250, but I get 2.5 flash. I'm on Gemini Ultra, but I can't do video because I maxed it out. But the results were fantastic. I posted some earlier this morning.
Starting point is 00:01:18 Geordi posted one of him fighting 100 gorillas and winning. And I won. Only possible with artificial intelligence. Yeah, but you simply wouldn't be able to find out the answer to that exactly of if you know a hundred gorillas versus one tech Podcaster you wouldn't you would need AI. Yeah, really simulate that kind of conflict then we're talking about Europe trying to get into the technology game. I I think of technology Technology as like a uniquely American thing, but apparently they're trying to do it over there. I tend to think of invention as an American invention. And so I've never heard of any technology coming out of Europe, but I guess people are
Starting point is 00:01:59 trying to make it happen. So, you know, anything's possible in the future of AI abundance. It's possible. We love our Nordic. We in the in the future of AI abundance possible. We love our Nordic we love our Nordic. Yes, entrepreneurs. They're goaded. Yes. And we love one Italian entrepreneur in particular, john Fiorentino, of course, of course, Volta of Fiorentino label of moon pals of gravity blanket. You know, he's probably the best Italian entrepreneur in history. Definitely in the conversation, right? Definitely in the conversation. Anyway, Definitely in the conversation, John.
Starting point is 00:02:25 Anyway, let's kick it off with, let's also pull up the guest list, tell you who's calling in. We got Eric Prantz, we got David Senra from Founders Podcast, we got Scott Wu from Cognition, breaking down that question that I've been digging into, how does the AI coding market landscape evolve now? We got top-down enterprise approaches,
Starting point is 00:02:44 bottom-up enterprise approaches, Windsurf's been acquired, Cursor's on a tear raising at nine billion. We got Codex and Jules from Google now. Everyone has an AI companion, an AI coding bot, a companion for the software. You're gonna have coding agents that code you your own AI companion.
Starting point is 00:03:04 That's the future we're going towards. The real test for Jules is can Google's new AI coding agent build one-shot me Google Reader? A beloved Google product at sunset. I want one prompt, build me Google Reader. I was blown away by everything that Google announced yesterday. And I was kind of laughing a little bit because one of Google's agencies was was interested in in partnering with us Oh, yeah, and the onboarding just to get in the conversation with them has been so intense. Hmm that I just haven't done it for for
Starting point is 00:03:40 Weeks weeks and so it'd be cool if they build an agent that could sort of build You know an onboarding flow that that didn't involve a bunch of excel sheets. That'd be great Anyway longer conversation. Let's go to the the breaking news open AI is buying it buying Johnny I've secret AI company I oh for six point five billion device a billion dollars Although it is in stock and they will develop a slew of devices. I've in his return to hardware and love form will oversee open AI design, all the details, including interviews with I've Sam Altman and others from Mark Gurman in Bloomberg. I mean, what he is assembling the Avengers all over again. It's crazy. Like the early open AI
Starting point is 00:04:21 team truly is saying, yeah, and now he's putting together VGCmo, you got Kevin Wheel, you got Johnny Ive now. There's just more and more people coming to that building. It's crazy. Nine minute video. The video basically goes on. It doesn't say a lot. It doesn't say what the product is, right?
Starting point is 00:04:36 I didn't get to the end. A lot of back and forth. I summarized it with Chad GBT. It basically said Johnny's amazing, Sam's amazing, and they're cooking. That was like the three big takeaways from the video. So if you don't have time, if you have time to watch this three hour podcast,
Starting point is 00:04:49 but you don't have time to watch that nine minute video, that's kind of the- I really did like the cinematography for what is essentially a nine minute podcast clip. It feels like you're a barista, but it's yeah. And that kind of makes you think maybe they're signaling that's the last job. Maybe, maybe,
Starting point is 00:05:07 venture capital and being a barista. It'll be very interesting to see what they actually launch. Anyway, let's dig into the Mark Gurman article. Uh, Bill Gurley immediately, within minutes of Mark Gurman posing this cash or stock, what was the deal? I want to know. I want to know. Uh, and Mark Gurman says 5 billion in stock. Open AI bought an initial 23% in Q4 for about 6.5 billion in total. Patty's in there saying, I don't want an OpenAI phone, I want an OpenAI brain chip. I want the 4.0 hallucination straight to the brain.
Starting point is 00:05:35 Love Patty, hope he's doing well. Anyway, let's dig into this article and break it all down. So, from Mark Gurman in Bloomberg, OpenAI to buy AI startup from Apple veteran, Johnny Ive in $6.5 billion deal. They will acquire the AI device startup co-founded by Apple Inc veteran, Johnny Ive, in nearly all stock deal for $6.5 billion.
Starting point is 00:05:56 The purchase, which is the largest in OpenAI's history, will provide the company with a dedicated unit for developing AI powered devices, and that makes a ton of sense, given that they are subject to the platforms. Google obviously is Android, tons and tons of AI products. As we saw yesterday, we're going to go into some of the Google IO reactions and what Ben Thompson's saying on Stratechery about Google IO. And then Apple. Apple's obviously a little bit behind the ball with Apple intelligence,
Starting point is 00:06:22 but they can charge 30% on everything still. They can gate things and they certainly can't let OpenAI have free reign of the OS as they'd certainly like to have. And so not an unreasonable decision, although many companies have tried and failed to break into hardware, Facebook famously, with the Facebook phone, which I believe was a project that was run by Chamath Palhaikki. And so the interesting thing here is that,
Starting point is 00:06:45 so OpenAI is not acquiring LoveFrom, which is the sort of consulting agency by Johnny. Yeah. And, but LoveFrom will continue to work on I.O. internally at OpenAI. Okay. And, not, sorry, not internally, but I.O. is now part of OpenAI.
Starting point is 00:07:01 Yeah. So the big question for me is, six and a half billion dollars is a big number. They must have made some meaningful amount of progress. Otherwise they could just say to love from, can we just pay you $500 million a year to develop a device ourselves?
Starting point is 00:07:17 And so in the video, the thing that was notable to me is that Sam has an early version of whatever their initial device is that he says he's blown away by. And they've gone out and said they're making a family of products as well. Yeah, makes sense. I mean, at the same time, if you flip it around, what does it take to get Johnny Ive to join your startup?
Starting point is 00:07:38 Is it close to 2% equity? If so. Couple points at least. Couple points, right? I mean, that's not unreasonable. And so you run that math and all of a sudden it's like, well, we're taking, we're paying for this mostly in stock. It's all stock deal, 6.5 billion latest valuations,
Starting point is 00:07:53 what, 350, 300? 330. 330, and so it's basically 2% of the company of OpenAI is going to Johnny and his team. He's gonna slice that up, probably owns a bunch of it. And so what would it take to get someone to be to get Johnny I've the legendary designer to be their head of design You know if you were any other company you'd be like yeah one two percent probably right? Yeah, maybe more senior executive Yeah, exactly like the numbers there. They're all they all have four extra zeros
Starting point is 00:08:19 Yeah, behind them, but but they but they all make sense when you when you rationalize it that way anyway So there's gonna be this dedicated unit for developing AI powered devices, acquiring the secret startup, secretive startup named IO will also secure the device, the services of IVE and other former Apple designers who were behind iconic products such as the iPhone. Here's a quote, I have a growing sense that everything I've learned over the last 30 years
Starting point is 00:08:43 has led me to this place and to this moment. Very poetic. I've said in a joint interview with OpenAI Chief Executive Officer Sam Altman, it's a relationship and a way of working together that I think is going to yield products and products and products. For the British-born designer, the move marks a high-profile return to a consumer technology industry he helped pioneer, working for years alongside Steve Jobs. He crafted the look and feel of the modern smartphone in addition to the iPod the
Starting point is 00:09:08 iPad the Apple watch he left Johnny specifically called out that these are decades old devices right and so his point here is what what comes next right what is the next platform so he left in 2019 obviously Apple was working on vision Pro for more than five years, right? So he must have seen that project at some point and then been like I got Letter now, I don't know. I mean, obviously it has it has touches and the crazy thing There's this picture of the two of them here, which Johnny unfortunately fails the green line test did
Starting point is 00:09:43 Let's pull it up. He highlighted that for us and tagged us in it actually. But the crazy thing here would be if Johnny is actually wearing the first device. We don't know the form factor. It could be something like a pendant. It could be glasses. Maybe. It could be something else.
Starting point is 00:10:01 I'm just speculating. But I wouldn't be surprised if there's Easter eggs. But I mean, the green line test here makes sense. It's like Sam's the CEO and Johnny works as CEO now. Yeah, so it's hard to say he failed. Yeah, maybe in some ways. He represented the true relationship
Starting point is 00:10:14 of the business partnership, right, going forward. Always fail the green line test for the boss man. Yeah, you don't wanna mug your boss in a photo. Don't mug your boss. It's a disaster. Yeah. I was once described by Jobs as his spiritual partner and his new stint designing rival technology products
Starting point is 00:10:29 could be seen as a bad omen for Apple, a company already struggling to compete in AI. In the interview, Altman said Jobs would be damn proud of Ive's latest move. Open AI is going to create a product at level of quality that has never happened before in consumer hardware. Altman said AI is such a big leap forward in terms of what people can do
Starting point is 00:10:45 that it needs a new kind of computing form factor to get the maximum potential out of it, he said. Not saying what form factor that is, but could it be a rectangle with the screen? What are we thinking? The critique of the video, if it was a beautiful conversation that shared almost nothing
Starting point is 00:11:04 other than they clearly admire each other and they're excited about what they're building. It's just two guys hanging out yapping, basically. It's ridiculous. Why would anyone do that? Why would anyone publish multiple minutes of just two guys talking to each other? This is crazy.
Starting point is 00:11:18 I love at the beginning of the video that they're clearly walking to meet at this coffee shop or bar or whatever they're meeting at. And to me the idea of the two of them just walking around San Francisco seems Probably hard to go that far without I was thinking about that. I was like if I saw Johnny I just cross the street. He's jaywalking right? Yeah, just you can just do things. Yep. You can just do things
Starting point is 00:11:46 Yeah, so they just walk in and Yeah, full camera crew very cinematic shot really really cool John I called it by the way, which Ben just broke the news to us in the chat that there was an earthquake in LA I was sitting here at the table a minute Minute before a minute before we went live and I'm like built different it I was like there's an earthquake happening right now John's like no I'm just banging the table oh I'm scared I'm terrified water I can't watch your water is your water is shaking I was with the this is showbiz job show is gonna go on we were not gonna stop the show but there was a couple of things so, the other thing here, OpenAI
Starting point is 00:12:25 had acquired a 23% stake in IO last year. So already pretty major shareholder. Separately, OpenAI's startup fund also invested in IVE's company. At that time, billionaire philanthropist Lauren Powell Jobs and IO Backers as well. Do you remember rumors? I feel like it was about a year ago
Starting point is 00:12:44 that Sam and Johnny were like in the Middle East pitching this device product. So there had been a bunch of rumors, but never a ton of clarity. I mean, Sam just understands the full implication of the AI stack and is interested in having a play in all of them, like the Helion. He's thinking about fusion and energy
Starting point is 00:13:05 at the super, super long tail. He was talking about chip fabrication yesterday. He's obviously doing data center build outs now, as well as the product level and the foundation level. It's like, yeah, if the app, oh, where does the value accrue? The model layer, the application layer. It doesn't matter if it,
Starting point is 00:13:28 if the value accrues to the foundation model layer, the application layer. It doesn't matter if it acquires, if the value accrues to the foundation model layer, the application layer, the energy layer, the data center layer, the chip fabrication layer, the device layer, or the energy level, he wins. Because he's got- He's got- Full stack. Full stack. He's verticalizing. Yeah, he's verticalizing.
Starting point is 00:13:42 The deal is expected to be completed this summer, pending regulatory approvals. The takeover IO will provide- By the way, if this gets blocked, I'm taking to the streets. Yeah. I'm gonna be out there. Two guys can't even get a coffee and build together anymore.
Starting point is 00:13:56 Yeah. Yeah, it's ridiculous. I do wonder how Elon's gonna respond to this. He's probably gonna be like, this is ridiculous. I don't like this at all. It's very annoying. Yeah. It's very annoying. It's very annoying. It's very annoying.
Starting point is 00:14:07 For Elon, right? For Elon. Why? Because to be one of the most powerful, wealthy people in the world and have it out for somebody and be so publicly aggressive towards them, but not seem to be able to actually,
Starting point is 00:14:25 he's consistently trying to, Sam's biking by, Elon's trying to throw a broom through the wheel, and it's just, the wheel's breaking the broom. I feel like maybe Elon needs to pick up somebody, some iconic designer. Who is Pininfarina or something? Who's the most iconic car designer? Yeah, what are they up to these days?
Starting point is 00:14:51 What are they up to these days? I mean, we've talked about Mansory for Tesla, but maybe he needs to get someone to design some X hardware. The funny thing is that there have been these fake viral videos. But I would be interested to, it's very possible Elon has a different thesis around hardware and AI, right? It might not, his point of view, who knows,
Starting point is 00:15:13 could be it's, Neuralink is all that matters. Like you guys are focused on the wrong form factor. I'm sort of playing 10, 20 years in the future. You guys can make cute glasses. I'm gonna be in your brain Yeah, like that that's Elon's lawn game is like he's like he's going to make the best And like Sam is gonna have to at some point Yes, the chat is available for neuroleg and then I gotta get the chip and then he wants like gotcha gotcha You let the you let the Fox into the hen house
Starting point is 00:15:44 Yeah, let the chip in your brain. Yep, and it's just like imagine he's like, you know Sam Sam has endured You know having Elon, you know, come up the like crying emoji But imagine Elon just piping that into Sam's brain like why why do I hear this in the background? It's so distracting. It's ridiculous. It's funny, yeah. I mean, the other thing is maybe the next AI product is just the humanoid robot. And Optimus just sits there.
Starting point is 00:16:18 It's like C-3PO. I was watching Star Wars this weekend, and you have a question, you just ask C-3PO. The other thing is- You have your humanoid robot, and you just the question, you just ask C3PO. You have your humanoid robot and you just ask the robot. Like the opportunity with, the long-term opportunity with Neuralink and AI is that you have a new sort of artificial
Starting point is 00:16:36 internal monologue, right? That basically is augmenting your existing thinking. And so you have to imagine that Johnny and Sam have thought about that potential scenario Yeah, so it's possible you could imagine they apples working with that company around Sort of brain computer interfaces they could just buy that company for a billion dollars to right. Yeah, there are a few players Interesting the deal is expected to complete this summer the takeover Card embedded into my finger you can actually do that you can get an NFC chip in your under your skin embedded in like a little capsule our
Starting point is 00:17:15 people will it's pretty pretty talk to ramps people and biohacking we'll make it happen yeah no you can do it you can do RFID I know someone who did it and has could like open open a door with it, basically. Yeah, super helpful. Yeah, super helpful. So yeah, way easier than a keyboard. Gotta have it.
Starting point is 00:17:31 Totally worth it. Gotta have it. And the really crazy thing is that the capsule is metal. And so your body rejects that. So they have to coat it in silicon. But if the silicon cover breaks. What about just replacing a fingernail with? Yeah, I think there's probably other ways.
Starting point is 00:17:44 I'm not into the body modification stuff. It's not enough for me. What about internal monologue? You got one? I've spent after the height-mogging incident, way down the rabbit hole around height surgery, trying to go from six one to seven one. Yeah, oh wow, that would be impressive.
Starting point is 00:17:58 Height-mog you. But it would mean missing the show. Yeah, you can't do that. And I'm not gonna do that. You have internal monologue? Yes. But it would mean missing the show. Yeah You're a monologue Yes, I can you imagine not having one like I cannot imagine not having an internal monologue to the degree that I think No monologue people are like I think it's fake TVP and audience all has an internal monologue Is it just like an is it just like an IQ test basically?
Starting point is 00:18:26 Or do you think the no monologue thing is real? I think it's just entirely fake and just made up. I'm very skeptical of it. We should have. If you don't have an internal monologue, come on the show. Come on the show. We'll break it down. Anyway, the pair-
Starting point is 00:18:42 I.O. has 55 hardware engineers, software developers, and manufacturing experts, a team that will build what I've and Altman expect to be a family of devices. The two executives have already been exploring some early ideas for about two years. They said the pair expects the first device to be a truly novel type of product. People have an appetite for something new, which is a reflection of a sort of unease with where we are currently I've said the question is just like Apple's really Tested every possible screen size down to the watch is super tiny Then there's the phone the iPad the iPad I mean the YouTube machine the YouTube machine And then and then you put on the vision Pro and the goggles and you can get an iMac screen
Starting point is 00:19:23 And so like if the device has a screen, it's got to be something between one inch and 200 inches, and quickly you fall in that continuum. Yeah, I mean, the question is, are they building for GPT 4.0, or are they building for GPT 6 or 5? And how much better do the models get in our screens? I mean, wasn't Sam also an investor in Humane? I think he was.
Starting point is 00:19:49 I think so. I mean, I won't list the investors in Humane because some of them are friends and they wouldn't want to be associated necessarily anymore. But I think Sam has been thinking about hardware in a bunch of different ways and wants to test both no screen, see if that works, maybe screen, maybe different opportunities, I don't know.
Starting point is 00:20:11 Ivan Altman's first devices are slated to debut in 2026. That's just like three months before ASI. Yeah, yeah, yeah, right around the corner. One thing I feel really confident in is that I believe they could sell a million of these devices almost immediately, right? Well, it depends. I think, I mean, yes, a million is like low enough
Starting point is 00:20:32 but like it'll happen no matter what. The question is like, if it's additive and complimentary to my current tech stack, it's a no brainer. Absolutely, everyone will get one. If it's a replacement, it really has to be also a good phone still, and if they don't hit the basics of, okay, it works with iMessage, then there's a question about like,
Starting point is 00:20:56 am I really gonna drop my phone, or am I carrying two phones now, if it's like a phone-sized device, right? Whereas it was very easy to add a chromatic to my tech stack. And it's like, yeah, I could probably get a Game Boy emulator on my phone, but it's just a cool device. And I throw out my backpack. If I'm traveling, I have it.
Starting point is 00:21:15 Same thing with like even the Vision Pro. It's like very additive. It's not fully replacing your phone. So VR headsets could be something like glasses, like the Meta Ray bands. People add those to their stack. It seems like it's easier to get someone to add something replacing your phone. So VR headsets could be something like glasses, like the Meta Ray bands. People add those to their stack. It seems like it's easier to get someone to add something
Starting point is 00:21:29 than to replace something as important as their laptop or their phone, which they have like 10 years, 15 years of like daily driving use and expectations on where the apps are, where, how things work. It's gonna be a lot harder to rip out the current flow. Yeah. I don't know.
Starting point is 00:21:44 When he left Apple six years ago, I've started the firm LoveFrom, a collective of designers and engineers. Their staff includes veterans of Apple's hardware and software departments, as well as friends of Ive and other collaborators. He then co-founded I.O. last year with Apple alumni Scott Cannon, Evans Hankey, and Tan Tang.
Starting point is 00:22:02 Hankey was Ive's successor at Apple and remained at the company until 2023, while Tan led iPhone and Apple Watch product design until 2024. Absolutely stag droster. Cannon worked at Apple before co-creating the once popular email app Mailbox, which was acquired by Dropbox.
Starting point is 00:22:19 Oh, I had no idea. Did you ever use Mailbox? No. Fantastic app. 2013 comes out and it inv and it invents the, the swipe to archive, swipe to snooze, um, uh, uh, paradigm. And really makes it easy to start doing inbox zero. And that's where I learned inbox zero, because when you signed up for mailbox,
Starting point is 00:22:40 there was this big long wait list. It took you a long time to get through. It was very like, it was a hot product at the time. And one of the first things they would do is just say, hey, you have 5,000 emails. Let's archive them all. Because when you archive an email, it just leaves your inbox. You can still search for it.
Starting point is 00:22:53 It still exists. It's not deleting it. So just let's archive it all. And then from now on, you should triage your email by swiping. And it was amazing. It was a great product. And then mailbox bought it, or Dropbox bought it.
Starting point is 00:23:04 And I think they shut it down. It was one of those Jiro sushi products, right? Totally. It was like really great design. And everyone loved it for the year that it was viable. And then I don't know what happened with it. At I.O., the group set out to develop, engineer, and manufacture a collection of products
Starting point is 00:23:19 for an era of artificial general intelligence, the point at which technology achieves human-like cognitive abilities, the team will now continue that mission at OpenAI, becoming a threat to the very devices the designers helped create. That adds to the challenges of Apple, which has fallen behind in Silicon Valley peers
Starting point is 00:23:35 in artificial intelligence. The company's AI platform released last year lacks the capabilities of rival systems and relies in part on OpenAI's chat GPT chat bot to fill in the gaps. Still, Ivan Altman don't see the iPhone disappearing anytime soon. In the same way that the smartphone didn't make the laptop go away, I don't think our first thing is going to make the smartphone go away.
Starting point is 00:23:54 Okay, getting a little bit more detail here. It's a totally new kind of thing. I'm really excited for this. The phone, as it currently is, is a remarkable general purpose device. I've said adding that people will connect with AI in very new ways. We got to get... I'm so excited to understand what the interface for this first device is going to look like because one thing stood out.
Starting point is 00:24:19 Nikita was posting earlier that if your onboarding flow requires any sound, you just see an immediate massive reduction in usage because a lot of people use their phones. What's an example of an onboarding flow that requires sound? Some apps will play a video, but I'm talking about this in the context of like a voice interface with the app.
Starting point is 00:24:40 Sure, sure, sure. And the issue is people use their devices in bed. In public, they don't want to be loud. Or in the bathroom. Got it., they don't want to be loud. Or in the bathroom. Got it. And they don't want to be loud. So if the experience requires sound, you're cooked. Yeah, Nikita says the majority of new app installs
Starting point is 00:24:55 take place in bed or on the toilet. If your app requires sound on or voice to sign up, you've voluntarily accepted a 60% tax on your growth. And so that's, you know, if your voice, voice AI has progressed so much, right, we've seen examples of Sesame, super low latency, you could imagine a hardware device that's purely allowing you to interact with AI
Starting point is 00:25:21 like it's a human, right? What if the device is a response to all the fears around AirPods? And so it's a set of wired headphones into a Walkman-like device. Something there, John. And then you can talk to the AI without needing to use wireless headphones.
Starting point is 00:25:39 That could be really trendy. They could go back to the original iPod video of the silhouettes dancing with the headphones on. So TJ has a great post here. OpenAI got the best hardware and design team in history for six billion or framed differently for the same amount Amazon burns annually on Alexa and devices.
Starting point is 00:25:57 Yeah, yeah. No, I really think that this is not a crazy overpriced acquisition. It seems totally reasonable to take 2% of your equity and say, hey, let's take a shot at owning the next computing platform because this is such a seismic shift that there's totally a world where they go
Starting point is 00:26:15 and solve glasses or watches or headphones or some sort of other mobile device that you carry. And maybe it's additive. We should get some of the device entrepreneurs on the show. Avi. What does Avi say so far today? I'm sure he's ripping tweets. I'm sure he's-
Starting point is 00:26:33 He's launching in 71 days. 71 days? He says- He's not launched? He just posted a minute ago, too many cooks. Too many cooks in the kitchen? Ha ha. Which is funny because is that a play on Tim Cook?
Starting point is 00:26:44 Yeah, maybe. You know? Also there's that adult swim video, too many cooks. I don't know if you've seen that. Too many cooks in the kitchen. Avi, I'm very excited for his launch. Yeah, yeah, we should give him a call. And it would be, even if OpenAI and the IO team
Starting point is 00:27:00 just completely come out with their own version of Friend, it's still a cultural victory for Avi because he got the form factor right. And he can probably sell it to Oracle for a billion dollars or Amazon or something. Yeah, I mean the Alexa Friend, that'd be good. The Alexa Friend. Yeah. Opening AI also shook up management ranks this month with the San Francisco based company appointing Instacart chief Fiji Simo
Starting point is 00:27:27 as the CEO of applications. She reports directly to Altman, allowing him to focus on the broader strategy. Hankey, who will become an OpenAI employee along with Tan and Cannon, said that ChatGPT's debut prompted a realization that hardware technology would have to change. A number of us looked at each other and said,
Starting point is 00:27:41 this is probably the most incredible technology of our career. So agree, but how will it change? Tell us something. Just one thing. Just one thing. Just a crumb, sir. Just give us a weight.
Starting point is 00:27:53 How much will it weigh? How big will it be? That would be fun. Is it bigger than a bread box? Can we do 20 questions with one of these? 20 questions with, that's what we'll do with Sam. 20 questions. Is it made out of metal or plastic or is it organic?
Starting point is 00:28:05 Can I eat it? Is it a robot? Does it foldable? This is interesting. So Sam says we are obviously still in the terminal phase of AI interactions. We have not yet figured out what the equivalent of the graphical user interface is going to be,
Starting point is 00:28:20 but we will. That's saying that there's a... Like, should we, yeah. What's interesting is like, the graphical user interface didn't. Potentially like a crud app. Right. The graphical user interface didn't change with mobile.
Starting point is 00:28:33 The thing that the iPhone did well was multi-touch. And so being able to like pinch to zoom, and all of that was like very incremental. I mean, obviously the breakaway app was when you could just drink like a beer. Drink the beer, the beer app was really the win. I mean, I mean, obviously the breakaway app was when you could just drink the beer. The beer app was really the way I mean that the iPhone wouldn't. I mean, we've already had that with AI. That's the Harry Potter Balenciaga. That is the iPhone beer app of AI. That's a good take.
Starting point is 00:28:56 That's a good take. Love From has a number of former Apple designers who helped create the look of the Mac and iPhone operating systems that haven't changed in a decade since they did their work. Somebody go check on John Giandrea. We never finished that article. I really want to finish it. They could help redesign OpenAI's app for new generations
Starting point is 00:29:17 of consumers. LoveFrom will continue its existing relationships like Ferrari and Airbnb, but it won't take on new clients. Their new hardware team within OpenAI will be overseen by Peter Weilander, who will report to Altman as product vice president. They should just buy Ferrari. And Airbnb.
Starting point is 00:29:35 Can you imagine if OpenAI owned Ferrari and they're just like, this is the new device. If you want to interact with ChatGPT, we recommend getting an SF90. A 296 GTB. An SF90f90 level chat GPT integrated. Yeah, I mean you're already paying $2,000 a month for chat GPT Pro Plus. Why not put it up to four thousand and get a lease for a SF 90 Yeah, Ferrari will finance it for you. Exactly. Yeah, totally doable for the price of a chat GPT subscription You can easily be driving a hyper car.
Starting point is 00:30:06 Totally. Totally. Yeah, everybody talks about the $20,000 a month, you know, chat GPT subscription that should come with a Ferrari. Yeah, you come with an SP three. It's not humanoids, folks. It's AI will be embodied by and the legacy of Enzo Ferrari. Think about how low churn would be if you were like in order to use AI really effectively, I gotta be revving that V12. I gotta be ripping it up on the open roads.
Starting point is 00:30:33 The device needs to be vibrating from the naturally aspirated V12. Cutting canyons. Well, I mean, there was, didn't Elon say something yesterday that it wasn't off the table that Tesla and X could merge. Yeah, yeah, yeah, Luke Metro was predicting that a year ago. I'd finally buy a Tesla.
Starting point is 00:30:50 Yeah. Just so I could be terminally online behind the wheel. Yeah, I like those. Roll in Ferrari for sure. You heard it here first, breaking news. I've said Chachi Petit was initially put on his radar by one of his twin sons Charlie. Oh Twin dad let's hear the twin dads love that
Starting point is 00:31:15 And he immediately knew he had to meet Altman after using it the new team at open AI will work at Ios existing workspace in Jackson Square a neighborhood in San Francisco and open AI is current offices. So they're not far apart I have felt that my most important and useful work is ahead I've said adding that he has been training for this moment. He compares the experience to Apple in the late 90s to the early 2000s, before the iPod and iPhone. I'm just really, really grateful we all found each other. Ive and Altman wouldn't elaborate on what hardware products they are working on, but they will be entering a market in its infancy.
Starting point is 00:31:42 MetaPlatform's the owner of Facebook and Instagram as perhaps the most notable maker of AI devices. It sells the popular Ray-Ban Smart classes, which Google is now competing with. They launched two different devices, N-Real, these VR glasses that, it's not full virtual reality, it just projects a really big screen in front of you.
Starting point is 00:32:01 I've been wanting to pick one of these up because my main use case for the Apple Vision Pro is just watch a movie on a plane. And these are like cheaper, lighter, easier to use, and they just put the big screen in front of you. Very cool. I wanna get some of those. And we should probably try and get the CEO on the show.
Starting point is 00:32:17 And then they also launched like smart sunglasses that don't have a display, but you can talk to Gemini, which also very cool. I've took shots at Humane and Rabbit saying those were very poor products. Whoa. And says they're- Dude, that was a quote. Brutal.
Starting point is 00:32:38 There's an absence of new ways of thinking expressed in products. Is that the problem though? Like those were definitely new ways of thinking expressed in products. Is that the problem though? Like those were definitely new ways of thinking expressed in products. They just weren't good new ways of thinking. They were definitely new though. Yeah, not every new way is gonna be a good way.
Starting point is 00:32:53 Yeah, I also think that I still feel like the humane AI pen built for children could have been a hit product. The Rabid R1 specifically too. Like it would be so easy to sell that to your four-year-old, your five-year-old is going to start demanding an iPad. Instead, get them this. And it's the nerfed iPad.
Starting point is 00:33:16 And it's just educational. It's a machine for your child's curiosity. Yes, exactly. They can ask it any questions. They can say, tell me a story about. But they can't play Skinner Rocks games. And they can't play Candy Crush on it any questions. They can say tell me a story about skinner rocks games Yeah, and they can't play Candy Crush on it or whatever. Yeah. Yeah. No, there's definitely something I'll figure out a way to put Candy Crush on there. Well, some of these whale kids
Starting point is 00:33:34 Spending 20 grand a day on Candy Crush, but but it's a it's a vendetta. Johnny's like this is not my intention Yeah, he just creates the most addicting advice device possible. They're calling it the new cigarettes, folks. Ivan Altman wouldn't elaborate on what they're working on. Tan, who is central to developing every version of the iPhone within Apple's hardware engineering department, said the new team isn't tied to a legacy and will have an opportunity to rethink the space. It'll be worth the wait, Altman said.
Starting point is 00:34:04 It's a crazy ambitious thing to make. Not much detail here, but thanks for the post. I am excited. I hope it's huge. I hope it's a hit. Really, really big. I want it to be as big as a newspaper. I think part of really loving big tech
Starting point is 00:34:24 is wanting more companies to become big tech or high technology and open AI has clear potential to get into that group and Maybe they should launch out a newspaper. This is kind of hardware just print out deep research reports Yeah, people. It's me put it drop it off on people discount paper as as you know know a potential hardware form factor yeah it is it is anyway Google I O reactions let's move on everyone on the Google team made the exact same hand gesture apparently they were all trained Tulsi in there Tulsi's in there she's been she was on the show yesterday I guess Logan didn't make that no maybe he had some wild hand gestures what I sayseta says, goob gang sign.
Starting point is 00:35:06 Goob gang sign. Are you familiar with the Merkel route? This one? Angela Merkel would always hold her hands like this. It was pretty sick. Similar to Andrew Tate. Is that where Tate got it from? Wait, Tate does it?
Starting point is 00:35:17 Oh, I didn't know that. That's hilarious. I think his infamous... Oh, he does like this. He tenses his fingers. Tenting your fingers is very pensive and thinking, I'm thinking, oh he does like this one. He tenses his fingers. Tenting your fingers is very like pensive. I'm thinking, oh yes, I'm tenting my fingers. It's not very golden retriever coded.
Starting point is 00:35:31 You never see a golden retriever do that. No, definitely not. Charmee Kapoor, founders waking up to realize that their startup is now a bullet point in Google's keynote. Yeah, so a couple things here. They've launched a product to generate product designs. Yep.
Starting point is 00:35:49 That was interesting. They launched a Doji competitor, which is like a try-on product. Yep. They obviously launched Jules, Coding Agent. They launched the Eyewear. Basically, whether you're Sesame, Doji, Doji, even Figma, right?
Starting point is 00:36:05 Figma has generative AI tools. Yeah, I feel like- But again, I don't think that founders, I don't think like the Dogey founders are seeing that and thinking, oh, I'm suddenly worried, right? Because the idea that Google is gonna dominate in fashion, which is so culture driven, it seems really, I don't see it happening.
Starting point is 00:36:29 I can see them having a version of the product in Google shopping that enables try-ons. I don't think it's gonna be this social cultural thing that Doji has clearly tapped into. Yeah, I wonder how many startups Google has actually killed in history. It doesn't feel like that many. The famous example of course is like Microsoft really did
Starting point is 00:36:49 kind of kill off Slack's growth with Teams, right? And Slack kind of like reached its peak and kind of flatlined after Microsoft Teams took off because Microsoft had such a distribution advantage. I feel like there's two different types of startups. Teams took off because Defense Tech got cool, and all the Defense Tech family had to be ITAR compliant. But seriously, I think that if you saw a Google feature,
Starting point is 00:37:22 and you were like, I'm going to start a startup on that, and you're basically copying Google, because you're like, I'm gonna start a startup on that and you're basically copying Google because you're like Google slow, then yes, this is real. To all the companies that were putting up fake notebook LM apps that weren't really raising money and kind of just cash grabbing on top of wrapping stuff that's already been created and pioneered by Google, Google drops a notebook LM app and they wipe you,
Starting point is 00:37:46 you can't really be that upset. Like you're always in a cash grab. But if you have built a massive design tool like Figma and it has so many different customers, so many different things and then they come out with like, oh, something that allows you to do like a little bit of design work, it doesn't feel like as nearly as existential.
Starting point is 00:38:05 And so I feel like this narrative is always like, oh Google just completely destroyed this stuff and it really depends on is this truly aligned with Google's mission that they're gonna just keep pouring relentlessly at and they're gonna make this great and it's completely on their roadmap. And were you always building a feature or were you building something that can grow into its own behemoth? And if you're on the roadmap and were you always building a feature or were you building something that can
Starting point is 00:38:30 grow into its own behemoth and if you're on the right track you're probably fine. Anyway, what's next? Well speaking of behemoth, the US formally accepts luxury jet from Qatar Qatar really Trump no way and it will possibly be used as Air Force one and Yahoo is reporting that turns out Trump's Qatar private jet wasn't even a gift hmm it wasn't despite the insistence that the plane was a gift what was it then if it's not a gift. Payment for services. A senior White House official told CNN that Trump tasked Steve Witkoff, the President's Special Envoy to the Middle East
Starting point is 00:39:12 with tracking down a replacement for Air Force One. After Trump learned that Boeing would not have new jets ready for another two years, Witkoff ended up leading initial conversations with the Qatari government. And they have them in stock, right? Yeah, Boeing provided the Pentagon with a list of other clients who might be able to help with America's search for a new
Starting point is 00:39:28 plane. One of those sources says that Qatar was included on that list of clients. And remember, we saw that chart, right? Yeah. There was not that many people in the world that actually have these jets set up in this way. There were also discussions about leasing the plane.
Starting point is 00:39:44 So again, when we saw the initial headlines, we thought that we imagined that it was possible that the full truth was not really revealed yet. And apparently legal negotiations over the plane's transfer are still ongoing. And it's unclear how the plane went from being a potential purchase to a $ million dollar gift. So anyway where should we go next? Probably ramp. Time is money save both. Easy use corporate cards, bill payments, accounting and a whole lot more. We're all in one place. We already talked about Figma but let's tell you about Figma as well. bigger build faster figma builds does helps design and development teams
Starting point is 00:40:27 Build great products together get started for it is the backbone of Tbpn yeah, if you like the merch that you've seen that's where we're making it. Oh, yeah Let's go to this Gary Tan post. This is good Actually talking about the cycle never ends every month a new world's most powerful model takes the crown we applaud compare and then wait for the next open AI introduces the world most powerful model then anthropic then Gemini then Grok there's a little bit of fracturing now in the sense that I haven't played with Gemini's LLM enough to displace my open AI workflow but the generative video like VO three is truly
Starting point is 00:41:06 Way way better than Sora right now. And so I compared the two I'd same prompt in both And it was brutal not there was not even a Question which one you would go with. Yeah one the Sora output made me Kind of it was it was a lot of The Sora output made me kind of. It was it was a lot of hallucinations. It was really hard to look at a story. It didn't have a certain movement. It was definitely like like a lot of gyrations and just hallucinations. Now, that's not to say that the look like it was three.
Starting point is 00:41:38 The three had a lot of crazy hallucinations, but they were not as disturbing or more like psychedelic like we would generate this one video of of an Audi r8 with a TBPN livery pulling out of our new studio and it's peels out it's very cool but then all of a sudden it's driving backwards which is very odd and jarring I did another one with a Rolls Royce Phantom pulling into the studio the TBPN GT3 cup car livery or site and that Foreshadowing and that one when it pulled in did you notice this it had a wing on the back and it pulls in and then All of a sudden the car morphs and you're looking at the front of the car again
Starting point is 00:42:18 And so it kind of hallucinated and transformed it did that a couple times where us blasting through the Hollywood sign it we there's a Hollywood sign in the background We bust through one Hollywood sign, then there's a third Hollywood sign like it is still hallucinating It doesn't seem it doesn't seem ground in reality in any way, but just visually The fidelity of the visuals is incredible and the ability to include three or four different concepts And then it weaves all of that into an eight second clip. It's very, very cool. And the sound is obviously amazing. And so I have been begging Google representatives
Starting point is 00:42:52 for more VO3 credits because it's a lot of fun. But yeah, we love an AI race. Well, we have some kind of meta news. Somebody is doing live translation of TBPN in Dutch right now. Do you want to try playing it, Ben? We'll see if this works. And we have Anthony Pompliano joining at 12.30 now.
Starting point is 00:43:22 So in the meantime, while we're pulling that up, let's tell you about Vanta. Automate compliance, manage risk, improve trust continuously. Vanta's trust management platform takes the work out of your, the manual work out of your security and compliance process and replaces it with continuous automation, whether you're pursuing your first framework or managing a complex program.
Starting point is 00:43:42 I need POM's email for this invite. Let's also tell you about Linear. Linear is a purpose-built tool for planning and building products. Meet the system for modern software development, streamline issues, projects, and product roadmaps. Linear launched their agents product into GA today, which is very cool, and I want to ask Scott about it because they have been working on some serious integrations there, which would be cool. We. I've had a lot of on TBPN, not at Netherlands.
Starting point is 00:44:12 Wow. They're translating. That's pretty amazing. If this worked, it's going to get really, it's going to get really freaky. Once they get to this point in the street, they're translating. Yeah. It becomes very meta. Oh, wow, they're actually talking about Vanta now. This is incredible.
Starting point is 00:44:30 Wow, this is really impressive. Okay, anyway, let's move on. Enjoy that if you're looking for TBPN in Dutch. Chubby shares, this is freaking insane, the holy grail of personalized AI for daily usage. If this demo turns out to deliver what it promises will be Much further ahead in 2025 than I would have thought so this is a video of a guy who uses a Android phone To troubleshoot a bike that he's trying to fix and he asks the AI to pull up the actual manual or Yeah manual for the bike and it's scrolling the PDF and then it says hey go find a YouTube video and it opens the YouTube app
Starting point is 00:45:07 So it's very much working at the OS level to use all of the features that are available on any Android phone And that seems like what we want from Apple intelligence that we're not getting yet You can't tell Siri to go open the Notes app and search there or take a new note. Everything has to be puppeteered at like the API level through these specific integrations instead of just using the whole phone. And so it's a very cool demo. There were a bunch more pieces of news.
Starting point is 00:45:40 Sam from Futurenomics says, Waymo does more rides than Lyft in San Francisco. There are only 300 Waymos Lyft has 445,000 drivers every Waymo is doing more than more rides than 150 human drivers now There's a community note on this. I don't know how true it is, but there were some staggering Waymo numbers I think they crossed 10 million rides or something There's this comment right underneath it that I think is probably why it's getting noted, which is that Right underneath it that I think is probably why it's getting noted which is that This guy Williams says that number feels and plausibly high though I wonder if that Lyft number includes surrounding area drivers who occasionally do ride. There's no way
Starting point is 00:46:13 45 that Lyft has 45,000 drivers in San Francisco Packed it's it's what a city of like seven million people or something like that like a lot of pink mustaches and and reminder like ubers what a hundred times bigger than lift and so you have four million uber drivers for seven million people or something like that yeah it makes no sense anyway Olivia Moore over at Andreessen Horowitz says although she interesting list is flat on the last year on the last 12 months. So it's up actually up one cent over the past year. So anyway, we need a poly market on the current best AI model I want to see where that's trending because Google
Starting point is 00:46:59 obviously released a bunch of models and Google was in the in the in the leading contender for top model. And I want to see where the polymarket is shaking out. End of May, Google's sitting at 91%. 91%. And 40% for December 31st end of the year. Yeah, so Olivia Moore here says, "'Google had a bunch of great AI launches today,
Starting point is 00:47:19 "'but they're so hard for consumers to access.' "'I completely agree with this. "'I get stuck all the time in the wrong flow, "'in the app. Even accessing VO3, I wound up in Flow, which is their TV product or something. It was just showing me AI stuff. And then there's like, I can get into the dev studio, but then I have to set up an API key. And then I finally have the Gemini app, but the Gemini app wasn't upgraded. And so I had to go through a Flow on Chrome, on desktop to get that. And I get that I don't have an Android phone,
Starting point is 00:47:48 but I feel like I'm being punished too much. Yeah. So she says- In the both case there is that that kind of stuff is actually easier to figure out than being on the technological edge and leading in benchmarks and all these other things and having massive-
Starting point is 00:48:02 Yes, yes, but they should be able to do both. They have so many APIs and UI designers, right? No, I totally agree. I'm just many APIs and new live designers, right? No, I totally agree. I'm just saying it's, you know, talking to Tulsi and Logan yesterday, they clearly are incredibly locked in, aware of the pushback.
Starting point is 00:48:14 Yep. So she goes on to say, "'It feels like every debut comes with a new subscription, "'which you need a specific account type to access "'and have to hunt down the playground for. "'I know AI products are expensive to run, but with Google's distribution and revenue streams, I don't get why they don't offer some of some more of this for free.
Starting point is 00:48:30 That was my question. Uh, or at least make it easier to find notebook notebook LM feels like their last big viral launch, which had no paywall at various times in the last three months. I've been subscribed to Gemini advanced Google one AI pro and now AI ultra the madness needs to end, I agree, although I'm now an AI Ultra subscriber, so maybe they got me, maybe it's all part of the plan.
Starting point is 00:48:50 4D chess. Yeah, I'm interested to track the ramp data on Gemini over the next couple months. Totally, see if it's ramping up. Anyway, everyone's going to have to pay sales tax on this. Get on Numeral, go to numeralhq.com, put your sales tax on autopilot, spend less than five minutes per to pay sales tax on this. Get on Numeral, go to numeralhq.com, put your sales tax on autopilot, spend less than five minutes per month
Starting point is 00:49:06 on sales tax compliance. Wes Roth says Google I.O. 2025 was an absolute AI overload and everyone is still picking up their jaws off the floor. Here's the TLDR. Gemini gets an agent mode. It's so powerful, it borders on executive assistant. So excited to check that out. Addy says-
Starting point is 00:49:22 This post from Addy, Gemini is the kid that got bullied in high school and is now jacked a millionaire and practices gratitude. That's very accurate. Yeah, I mean, they just like, I mean, that's the nature of these companies that are on the annual releases is that you're like, they're behind for 11 months out of the year.
Starting point is 00:49:38 And then they're state of the art for the big release. And then, of course, everyone else will launch. Yeah, I'm just like feeling extremely grateful that we own 80% of what you know is the internet and we can leverage this into creating really great AI. Yep. Theo says Google buying DeepMind in 2014 for $400 to $650 million
Starting point is 00:50:00 might have been the greatest acquisition of all time. Completely agree. It's definitely up there definitely in the conversation Definitely in the conversation Signal says Google's edge in local data, especially now with LLM's is absurdly underrated Nobody touches the depth of his store history and granularity They have on local businesses landmarks real-time conditions every other mapping service is just a sad knockoff because Google's been building this mode for decades Also, I mean the YouTube data is super valuable.
Starting point is 00:50:26 You have to imagine that their edge in VO is because of the YouTube data. Because, I mean, like it's the biggest repository of video content. New stream of video. Constantly. Constantly. Yeah, and so that's probably why there's so much good stuff
Starting point is 00:50:42 coming out of VO3. Ben Hilak showed the first ever ad produced with VO3. Welcome to the token tavern. It's in the tab if you guys want to try and pull that up. Justine Moore, Venture Twins says, man, singing a song about being a venture capitalist. We should play both of these. Good Alexander contextualizes it by saying, you can own Google at 17x earnings and short Costco at 50 X earnings long AGI
Starting point is 00:51:06 short rotisserie chicken is actually value investing People of people of Costco and then Archie sangupta says got access to Google diffusion Holy 909 tokens per second. I made a calendar in three seconds Yeah, I mean this is this is what people are talking about in terms of being able to generate entire applications, right, and this is the risk to existing software applications that don't have network effects, are really sort of thin wrappers around AWS
Starting point is 00:51:40 and these sort of simple applications. I mean, I still think that this will be one of those things, you know, people, people can make their own food. They still order out from restaurants, right? So here, let's play some of these with audio if we can. The token tavern. It looks so good Ben
Starting point is 00:52:22 Although although though I know that those graphics came from After Effects. That overlay, for sure, After Effects. Not generated VO3. He said, I produced with VO3. Yeah, yeah. It uses VO3. This is the most impressive shot in the whole thing, though. Look at this. Perfect lip sync. The teeth look great. The voice, the texture.
Starting point is 00:52:42 But get an alert when your AI product fails. That's motion graphics, baby. Truth Zone. Truth Zone. Ben Cook, though. Congrats to Ben. It's a very cool ad. Very cool.
Starting point is 00:52:52 What about the other one? This one, I basically watched this and I said, I had to watch this. I'm gonna have to make John watch this. It is pretty rough on the ears. Yeah. Okay. Let's lock in, check it out.
Starting point is 00:53:04 In the meantime, let me tell you about public investing for those who take it seriously they got multi-asset investing industry leading yields trusted by millions Public calm public calm get on there Also, how'd you sleep? You know how I slept John I Had to come back. You've you've had a couple good nights. I had to show you who's boss. I think I did poorly. 90, not bad.
Starting point is 00:53:29 97. Oh, I got you two years zero. I'm back in the game. I'm back in the game. Autopilot made 22 different- Clinically backed, sleep fitness. Get a Pod 5 Ultra. Autopilot made 22 adjustments to the temperature of the bed
Starting point is 00:53:41 to get my REM sleep up 8%. Just last night? Just last night, 22. That's actually a lot. OK, anyway, let's play this next video. Thank you to 8 Sleep. I'm a venture capitalist, yeah. I'm a capital dude.
Starting point is 00:53:58 All right, turn it off. Turn it off. Turn it off. This is so bad. So bad. That's wrong. That's just wrong. Let's just end the stream. Yeah, yeah, just turn it off.
Starting point is 00:54:16 Let's just turn it off. That's enough for today. Honestly, let's take the rest of the week off too. Let's just hang it up. Let's hang it up. That's so bad. Yeah, I was looking at that viral that viral video video and the prompt was just like stand-up comic telling a joke and everyone was like hey this is actually funny it's like I went to I went to the
Starting point is 00:54:34 zoo they only had a dog it was a shit zoo funny but like that joke is not created from AI it's literally on reddit it's literally at the top of Reddit slash R slash jokes. It's like we're still training on the same data. We're repurposing that as a find. Somebody take that video of the VC singing that song, post it on Blue Sky and just say like, hey, I know you guys haven't been on X in a while, but here's what's going on.
Starting point is 00:55:02 And given that they're generally deceleration as I think they hate it yeah they're not gonna be happy with that bad they hate to see a young venture capitalist singing very bad just just go to ad quick calm buy a billboard out of home advertising mean easy measurable say goodbye to the headaches about home advertising only ad quick combines technology out of home expertise and maybe easy and measurable. Say goodbye to the headaches about home advertising. Only adquick combines technology, out of home expertise and data to enable efficient seamless ad buying across the globe.
Starting point is 00:55:31 Thank you. That was rough. Anyway, we have three minutes. Let's just do a little quick timeline. We'll get to the Ben Thompson later. But I wanted to cover this article in the Wall Street Journal. Europe's firms fall far behind in the race
Starting point is 00:55:46 to create big tech. Lack of innovation holds economies back, weighing on the continent's future. Berlin, the world's technology revolution is leaving Europe behind. Europe lacks any homegrown alternatives to the likes of Google, Amazon, or Meta. Apple's market value is bigger
Starting point is 00:56:03 than the entire German stock market. The continent's inability to create more big technology firms is seen as one of its biggest challenges and is a major reason why the economies are stagnating. And so if you look at their chart, and they're looking at number of unicorns by region in the United States, there are 90 unicorns with a combined value of 2.35 trillion,
Starting point is 00:56:22 SpaceX and OpenAI of course the biggest. In the EU there's 107 unicorns, so actually more companies, but their combined value is 330 billion, basically an order of magnitude less value, and they include Stripe in Europe, which is not fair in my opinion, because Stripe is a YC company
Starting point is 00:56:40 that's very San Francisco coded. They have their conference in San Francisco. But I've been thinking more about European venture capital because a lot of people have been hating on it thinking that it's impossible to make money there. This is kind of consensus. All the smartest venture capitalists think that it's just impossible. But there is something amazing about that type of radical risk-taking in such a challenging environment. And if you just think about the act of launching a VC fund in Europe, it goes back to the early spirit
Starting point is 00:57:09 of Silicon Valley. It's totally like a huge, crazy. This idea of giving money to a company, giving millions of dollars to a company that has no cash flows, that's maybe entering a market that doesn't even exist yet. It's a million to one. Investing in European companies.
Starting point is 00:57:24 It's a million to one that you even make a dollar revenue. Totally. Potentially a billion to one. and investing in European companies. It's a million to one that you even make a dollar revenue. Totally. Potentially a billion to one. You know, people talk about like one miracle companies, two miracle companies. In Europe, you need to be a 10 miracle company to do anything.
Starting point is 00:57:38 And so if a VC can go there and even return, even just a one X on their fund, I think that they should be at the top of the minus list. Because it is such a remarkable achievement. It's so bold. He's running the minus list these days. I don't know. Post Conrad, who knows? Post Conrad.
Starting point is 00:57:51 But it truly, like, given the expectations, if you can even get out of there with returning 50% of your fund, you should be remembered as one of the greatest venture capitalists to ever do it. It would be a remarkable accomplishment. You need a reality distortion field to just go and deploy in Europe. It's remarkable.
Starting point is 00:58:12 Some level of hubris. Yeah. Massive. Anyway. Anyways, we have Eric Prince in the studio. Why don't we bring him in? Eric, how are you doing? There he is.
Starting point is 00:58:20 What's happening? Welcome to the street. Gentlemen, how are you? We're great. How are you? Great to great, how are you? Great to have you. Thank you. Why don't, I don't know if you need any introduction,
Starting point is 00:58:31 but why don't you give an introduction for those that may be unfamiliar. Born in Michigan, served in the Navy for a while and built a business called Blackwater, which was a defense services firm, a private military contractor, if you will. I sold that in 2010 and have done some things in resource investing, upstream in mining and exploration. And I still help governments from time to time with large intractable problems
Starting point is 00:59:07 and started a company just over three years ago called Unplugged, which is a standalone independent phone outside of the Google and Apple universe. It's really kind of an answer to surveillance capitalism. What was the first dollar of revenue for Blackwater? Like, how do you get that business off the ground? So SEAL teams, special operations units, because of the gun culture in America have gone to private facilities
Starting point is 00:59:37 really since the 70s. Some, you know, some champion shooter that's running a shooting school somewhere. And no one had done that on an industrial scale. And so I knew coming out of the SEAL teams, I knew what the teams needed. And I built the largest facility of its kind in the world within an hour drive of Norfolk Naval Base and all the SEAL teams and military concentration that's there. And actually our first customer was from the West Coast, the West Coast SEAL team. But yeah, we built ourselves into becoming a indispensable part of the train up of military units. And then when Columbine High School happened, that terrible high school shooting,
Starting point is 01:00:19 you had dozens of police departments that responded and did do very well because it took them hours to clear the building and people bled out that should have been cared for. And so we ended up building a big mock-up called Are You Ready High School where we could train thousands of SWAT officers how to respond to those kind of disasters in process with all the sounds and lights and role players and screaming.
Starting point is 01:00:44 And that was very effective. And then with the USS Cole, the Navy ship was blown up in Yemen by a suicide boat. The Navy realized that, well, the sailors that were guarding that ship were holding largely unloaded weapons that they never fired before, because the Navy thought it was too dangerous
Starting point is 01:01:00 to train with live guns. And so we ended up training 100,000 sailors. That was really our first big defense contract. Interesting. And then when, and then when nine 11 happens, obviously the demand signal for security and training and aviation and, you know, operating in difficult places was our specialty. How did those contracts actually work? We're familiar with the defense tech pipeline,
Starting point is 01:01:22 a lot of defense tech startups right now, maybe they're drilled, they're building counter UAS drone systems. And the typical path is they get some SBIR money, then they move to program of record, they start scaling up manufacturing. But for what you're doing, I imagine that the contracts are structured differently. How do you project revenue? How do you think about ongoing relationships with the DoD and making sure that the customer is satisfied for a long time? It's a much shorter flash to bank in terms of demand signal. A customer would come and say, I need this kind of airlift in this part of the world.
Starting point is 01:02:08 this kind of airlift in this part of the world, with this many tons, need to be able to fly on night vision goggles and operate under this level of FAA or not scrutiny. And we would bid it but 98% of our revenue was competitively bid. And look, at the same time I was building Blackwater, I took over my dad's original business, which made diecast machines, big, you know, heavy machine tool business. And I took that through a lean transformation process really based on the Toyota production system. And, you know, lowering the cycle time of large quantities of steel and other work in process. And so as I'm laying out Blackwater,
Starting point is 01:02:45 I kind of thought about it like a factory. And what does a military do? It recruits, vets, equips, trains, deploys and supports people to do a job in a difficult place. That's what we did. And because we were a training facility, to start with, we could back into the recruiting and the vetting. We had our own in-house doctors and psychologists
Starting point is 01:03:08 for all the psych screening tests, our own supply obviously, an enormous and impressive armory. What is the, what do you think the PMC of the future looks like, right? You have warfare's changing. We have autonomous systems now, a lot of the new capabilities being brought online are You know drone based I imagine your sort of vision of how you counter that
Starting point is 01:03:36 Probably ends up looking like a mirror to some degree, but but I'm curious. I'm sure you've thought about it more than anyone else degree but but I'm curious I'm sure you've thought about it more than anyone else. Uh yeah well you look back in history the contractors on the battlefield have always been there and if you were laying siege to a city in Europe a thousand years ago the people you contracted for the PMCs would have been the guys building the trebuchets or the battering rams which was at that point the most sophisticated system, mechanical system on the battlefield. Um, now those, that cutting edge bleeding edge technology is obviously in the drone and autonomous space. And yes, you're right.
Starting point is 01:04:16 The, the private sector can adapt and operate so much faster, including in the cyberspace as well, that the that is how you deliver significant punch above your weight by having a few people that do those systems very, very well. That's something that we're still the US DoD procurement swamp is still truly not learning from fast enough is that you go from idea to prototype to field testing in combat in Ukraine in a matter of days or weeks and you get a buy decision from a customer that needs it.
Starting point is 01:04:56 That same process in the US takes years. And so the obsolescence of ideas is so quick that we are missing. And so that speed of advancement is obsolescing, I would say hundreds of billions of dollars of past procurement decisions now. And we're diluting ourselves if we think we're fat, dumb and happy just because we've spent
Starting point is 01:05:20 trillions of dollars over the last 25 years in stuff. Buying stuff does not equate to buying capacity. Yeah, that makes sense. Have you been happy to see the Army's recent modernization efforts? They actually came on our show and talked about it for 30 minutes a couple of weeks ago. It seems like they are extremely motivated.
Starting point is 01:05:40 General George came. Yeah, and I imagine on your side, these are maybe things that you've been pushing for, for coming up on it a couple of decades now, but what was your read on it? Yeah, I didn't see there specific comments, but I know there's certainly trying to be a refocus on merit and lethality and not all the other distractions.
Starting point is 01:06:01 I would go as extreme as it would sound, I would push the purchase decisions of as it would sound. I would push the purchase decisions of a lot of the next generation equipment down to the division or even brigade commanders. Instead of effectively we have now is a socialist monolith buying apparatus of these PEOs through a few verticals back in Washington with enormous headquarter staffs. And I laud the guys that are trying to reform the Pentagon, but the fact is you have 800,000 Pentagon civilians.
Starting point is 01:06:31 If they cut that number to 200,000, now we're getting somewhere. Because you have so much dead wood that it literally blocks any kind of the speed or innovation. And when I say devolve purchasing decisions, yes, that will come with supply chain chaos. You're right, I want that. I want the 25th Infantry Division based in Hawaii,
Starting point is 01:06:54 which is probably never going to go to war alongside the 1st Armored Division based in Texas. I want them to buy and adapt current drone tech to their unique needs of the theaters they're operating in and let the best ideas float to the top. So then the Pentagon buys, makes a much, much bigger buy across it. If they bought 10 or 15 systems that are okay but they don't really like, the speed of advancement of obsolescence as we were talking about almost necessitates that kind of trial and error. Have you been happy that the startup world is firmly pro defense tech investing these days?
Starting point is 01:07:39 Is there enough new investment happening or is it already too much? What's your read on just how much investment activity there's been in Defense Tech? I am happy to see Defense Tech money flowing into those spaces. I think there's a lot of great ideas. My worry is that for the Silicon Valley crowd, which is used to spending and investing at a pretty high burn rate of overhead, because they're used to finding somebody
Starting point is 01:08:07 that will buy their stuff, because they have thousands or millions of early adopters. You don't have that in the Pentagon. You have basically four buying verticals, Army, Navy, Air Force, Marines, and maybe a little bit from SOCOM and a little bit from CIA, but that's it. little bit from CIA. But that's it. And so that however,
Starting point is 01:08:32 optimistic or aggressive their acceleration of purchasing timelines, it's not near what those defense tech investors are going to be used for used to. And so the the amount of overhead burn time they have to plan for is probably three to four times what they're thinking it is. And so I worry that there's a lot of great ideas that are going to wither on the vine, almost like planting a seed in really shallow soil until you get roots to where they can get to water, you're screwed. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:09:01 What's been your experience with the capital markets generally throughout your career? Have you ever worked with venture capital? Has private equity played a role? Is there, can debt be used to finance some of these problems that we're trying to solve? How have you interfaced with the capital markets and where has it kind of fallen short in your mind? Well, I had a, uh, I had the luxury, uh, because of my father's success, I was able to self finance blackwater.
Starting point is 01:09:30 Sure. And after the initial tranche of capital, I think it was 6 million to start the whole thing by the land, build a facility. Uh, we didn't have a huge caEx load until the aircraft purchases started. We went from one leased aircraft to 73 aircraft that we owned in six years, all self-financed. No other equity. We got a working line, a revolver, and that worked. I really don't like partners. I don't like PE. I don't like boards. I don't
Starting point is 01:10:11 like any of it. I'm kind of a unilateral person that way. So I'm not the right one to ask about that. Yeah, that's fine. What was your pitch when you were scaling the team and hiring people? I mean, I've heard the narrative that, uh, that the money's better when you transition into private military work, but, uh, was there more to it than that? Or is that narrative kind of overblown? Um, talk about building the team throughout your career. That was, it would, it became a significant, a significant vortice, a real center of gravity of being able to pull talent because yeah, you know, C suite talent, I never gave away equity in the business
Starting point is 01:10:58 because it was dangerous. It was volatile. And I paid, I paid extremely well, I paid very competitive bonuses, and then would bonus two, three to five times base at the end of the year. So it was effectively a big profit sharing. And maybe that's not as tax efficient or whatever. But the people liked it, the guys that you know, our ideal staffing then was somebody that spent time in a special operations or military unit, not a career, not usually a full career, no colonels, no generals ever
Starting point is 01:11:36 intentionally because they had spent so much time. This is take note, DOD or venture capital startups, people that spend 20 and 30 years in the military tend to get stuck in that way of thinking. And so they can't think of just finding a unconventional, different, cheaper, better, faster way to do something, and especially for the guys deploying was you get to do what you're really good at and we will pay you very well for that every day you're in the hot zone. The day you leave, their pay goes to zero.
Starting point is 01:12:16 So we really are pay for deployed guys. It's really more like playing a rough neck. Our guy that's going to a rig, they're busting their ass for 60 to 90 days, and they're off the rig, they're relaxing, they're going to the beach in Thailand or or managing their family farm or whatever. But they get to do they get to maximize their martial skills, whether it's flying a helicopter on night vision goggles at rooftop level at night, or a sniper, a instructor or whatever that
Starting point is 01:12:46 might be, they get to maximize that skill set and get paid for it without the nonsense and bullshit and the layers of stupidity that sometimes goes with the military. In in this like onboarding process as you're hiring, was there a story that you found yourself coming back to and telling people that would join the organization to highlight heroism or sacrifice? What was the defining story that you like to tell to kind of characterize the work? Well, I guess there's two. One happened to me when I was speaking at the National War College in Washington. So there's 300 colonels that are training to become generals. And they had me come in and talk about what we were doing as a PMC in the battle space.
Starting point is 01:13:37 And at the end of it, this colonel came up to me and he had just been in brigade command, so in command of about 4,000 people in Baghdad. And he said, I want you to know that at the top of the dashboards of his people in Baghdad's Humvees were the Blackwater call signs and frequencies. Because those guys knew that if they ever got in trouble, the Blackwater guys would come for him. No bureaucracy, no nonsense. And that was, hey, I was happy to hear that. That's exactly the guidance I gave my people was good Samaritan rule applies. If you see
Starting point is 01:14:11 a friend in need, go help them out. And, and they did that above and beyond way too often. And then I remember at the change of command for Admiral Eric Olson, who was the first SEAL four-star ever and a friend and a great guy. Another SEAL admiral who was in charge of all special operations in Europe and Africa came up to me and he gave me a bear hug. And he said, thanks, you guys really saved our bacon last week. And you have, it was some really sporty flying. I said, that's why we have very sporty pilots.
Starting point is 01:14:50 And what had happened is a so there was a Army Special Forces team, active duty training up in Mali. This is before the coup and the jihad, all the rest. And their tents were staked down and a big wind, okay, they called a small wind came through and it basically picked up the tent and tossed it with guys inside and it killed one, broke another guy's back, another guy's lip,
Starting point is 01:15:17 trashed all their comm gear and it gave another guy massive internal bleeding. That was the guy that was in danger. It actually picked our aircraft up off of its moorings, damaged the landing gear and the wingtip. And our SATCOM was the only thing that was working in the aircraft. So they called the other aircraft, which was a thousand miles away and we're in the shit and we need medevac and the small winds were still going. And now it's getting to nightfall.fall and at that point the DOD would not let us fly In that area with night vision goggles, even though we'd requested it
Starting point is 01:15:49 But that's okay. Our pilots came anyway And they landed on a single set of headlights in the desert at night Now if you've ever flown over the desert, you see how utterly dark it is and so to land on a single set of headlights is extraordinary and extremely dangerous. And they landed and our medic, our former 18 Delta medic was strapped into the back and he gets all these wounded guys on board and he starts to work on this guy who's now his blood pressure has gone to like 50 over nothing because he's gone through every bit
Starting point is 01:16:22 of liquid and he works him for the next 36 hours keeping him alive. Now the guy's body was distended because they couldn't figure out where the internal bleed was and he'd get him back to Uwagadugu and he goes way beyond protocol to save his life at personal licensing risk to the guys, you know, to himself, he opens him up on an operating table of this lousy, wild do goo Burkina Faso hospital. And sure enough, finds that the guys spleen is ruptured. That's where the leak was. And so he removes it clamps it off, puts it in a Ziploc bag puts the guy's organs back in, sews him up.
Starting point is 01:17:06 And then finally the high dollar Air Force surgical ward finally arrives 12 hours later. Too little too late. But our guy completely saved his life and he took massive personal risk to do that because his job was to be a medic. It's not to do surgery, but he did it anyway. And so that's in keeping with the attitude of having the right people, with the right attitude, and the right skillset, with, and we try to do intent-based leadership.
Starting point is 01:17:35 Go forward and do good things and support the customer, make sure the good guys win, and that was a good day. Incredible story. I wanna switch gears completely and ask you about a topic that I'm sure you spent some time thinking about, but AI safety that you might laugh a little bit about that, but I'm curious if you've worked with any groups kind of globally around this idea,
Starting point is 01:18:05 you know, just sort of the idea of AI safety as AI systems advance, you know, the labs talk about this quite a lot, the potential dangers of misaligned AI and the dangers of a adversarial government with advanced AI. What, if anything, have you, are your thoughts on that sort of
Starting point is 01:18:29 very broad question? Well, I guess the first question comes back to who's, yes, I agree, those are all very concerning topics and undoubtedly there are hostile, unfriendly governments that have done serious germ and bio warfare research and development that we're not aware of. But I even question our own government when I think it's legitimate questions to ask of NIH and the rest of those guys for the gain of function testing that they were doing and
Starting point is 01:19:04 funding in China, which ended up causing apparently the COVID debacle. I'd say almost like the Hippocratic oath, let's first do no harm and let's not spend money on dumb people that should not be doing that kind of research in the first place. But you're right. I am certainly no AI expert. I'm probably more of a, I don't know what I'm an expert in, but I... A few things. It's safe to say that if AI can be used for malign purposes, and it will be, it's going
Starting point is 01:19:40 to be done or it will be done. So whether it's for breaking passwords or for targeting people, I'm sure some entities are well along in that development and one should be careful. Yeah, that makes sense. I also wanted to ask you about, there was some unfortunate news or at least it seemed unfortunate
Starting point is 01:20:04 that Taiwan had decommissioned their last remaining nuclear reactor and are now completely dependent on imported natural gas. I'm sure you have some strong opinions around this. Yeah, I find that extraordinarily stupid of them. And that's a DPP. I mean, look, the two political parties are the coming tongue and the DPP. The KMT is the one that's really much more pro mainland CCP tilted. The DPP is just kind of a super green and a bit woke as a party that they would carry through on this and turn off a nuclear power that was a nuclear plant that was not dependent on hydrocarbons coming from
Starting point is 01:20:46 the Middle East is extraordinarily short-sighted. It speaks to their disbelief, their lack of fully understanding that we are not there to hold their hand and to guarantee their safety. I have advocated as loudly as I can that the only answer for deterrence there is an actual home guard because that government is corrupted at many levels. Any weapon system of significant or strategic value has already been probably pre-registered to be hit with not one one but probably five Chinese missiles. So whether it's an airplane, a submarine or whatever, the only thing that can inject uncertainty into an invader is a home guard. In the same way that, you know, the
Starting point is 01:21:38 American Revolution, there was only 3% of our population that took up arms to fight. If we found in Taiwan, that's 24-ish million people, so over 700,000. If we were allowed to recruit and train a home guard, three to four weeks, their military is largely useless. The reserve forces, not so much. Their idea of combat training is far from what ours is. But if you find the citizens that are willing, that injects a massive uncertainty into an
Starting point is 01:22:09 invader's mind because the train itself, either super urban or mountainous jungle, definitely favors the defender. And if Xi Jinping and the CCP are going to go for it, they have to be quick. They themselves cannot afford a long multi-year fight like you see in Ukraine because they depend on hydrocarbons and even food for imports. Switching gears a little bit again, I'm curious to get your thoughts
Starting point is 01:22:40 on the European defense tech ecosystem broadly. I'm sure you've done a bunch of business out there over the years. There's been some renewed, you know, new kind of spending bills. Ryan Mattol has been ripping fantastic stock, but I don't know about the company. And I guess there's just this overarching idea that America has and role and now every European country wants to kind of own their own defense stack and there's a lot of energy there But how do you think that the the landscape around defense in Europe is changing either on the the government side or the private sector? The only country I see being serious about it all is Poland. They have invested. They have invested and built some real combat capability The Baltics have not yet
Starting point is 01:23:31 Finland a bit. There's lots of talk about a big European defense extra spend Germany has been Atrocious, I don't know. I think I think people have bit up Ryan Mattel Because I don't know that their earnings have been people have bit up Rymetal because I don't know their earnings have been that spectacular Their stock price has probably done great. Yeah, but that's I hope that's a hope of future earnings. Sure, but I just see a complete lack of seriousness of European political leaders to address their own defense and It's taking a long time to wake up from this this hangover of
Starting point is 01:24:08 lethargy That being said the the most capable military in in Europe right now is the Ukrainian military the lessons Learned that they have are very significant. The drone tech is far and away the best, their ability to fight against and to even conduct electronic warfare and even close air support in this environment is leaps and bounds ahead of even what the US military is.
Starting point is 01:24:39 So that's the military to learn from. Ukraine does have a corruption problem. I hope sincerely that Trump is able to get a ceasefire in place and to stop this killing because it's absolutely pointless. It's just Slavs killing Slavs at this point and nobody's going to advance. And you have a blend of old and new. If you look at the pictures of the front there now, it's almost indistinguishable from the Battle of the Somme.
Starting point is 01:25:12 Artillery duels, static lines, bunkers, all the rest. Now the problem is somebody can fly an FPV into your bunker on the other side. But between tens of millions of landmines, which make armored breakthrough very difficult It slows down any attack so that the FPVs and artillery can get to it You're not going to see any kind of blitzkrieg hans-gadier area maneuver warfare there Until some significantly different weapons systems come along. So Look, Europe needs to get serious about it. They're far from it at this point.
Starting point is 01:25:49 Yeah, I mean, at home, these conflicts have been raging for years, but they feel very abstract because in America, you just kind of go about your day and go to the grocery store and things feel normal, even though the global tenor of great power competition and even these more minor conflicts is growing every single day. Between Ukraine, Russia, Israel, Palestine, India, Pakistan, Taiwan, China, what is the most, where should the focus be right now?
Starting point is 01:26:22 How should people stay up to speed? How do we get an idea of where these conflicts are going? How should people understand the nature and the risk associated? Well, they can follow my podcast because I talk about these conflicts almost once a week. Okay, that's great. That's a great place to start.
Starting point is 01:26:44 What's the name of the podcast? Let's plug it. It's Off Leash with Eric Prince. Okay, that's great. That's a great place to start. What's the name of the podcast? Let's plug it. It's Off Leash with Eric Prince. Fantastic, yeah. I got one last kind of question for you. The rumors that we've heard around how the whole TikTok debacle is being solved haven't given us a lot of,
Starting point is 01:27:04 hasn't gotten neither of us excited. Are we the, you think we're the laughing stock of China that we can't, you know, ban the Chinese AI brain rot app? And will you promise us that TikTok will not run on your phone? I don't think it's capable to run on unplugged phone. Now that you mention it, I will make sure that is the case. That's great. But yeah, any other color on the tick tock ban or just general
Starting point is 01:27:35 relationships between China and the U S with regard to technology and business, which is our focus here. Look, the Trump administration is still in the process of getting its people in the seats and getting those institutions organized. I mean, what the president just did today in showing video to Sierra Ramaphosa from South Africa about the ongoing murder and genocide of white farmers
Starting point is 01:28:03 was absolutely fantastic. And I even happier that Senator, Secretary Rubio is right there supporting the president. How about that? It is a different administration than we've seen in the past. And I am happy to see those kinds of issues being addressed. I wouldn't discount the tic tac thing being addressed properly this time since it wasn't the last you know, the 45 administration. Yeah. Yeah, that makes sense. Well, we're hoping for something good. But thank you so much for joining us. This is a
Starting point is 01:28:37 really fascinating conversation and fantastic stories really. I mean, just I was sitting back. I'm listening to the podcast. I'm listening to you. It's great. But thank you so much for stopping by. We'd love to have you back and we'll talk to you soon. Yeah. Cheers, Eric. Thanks for coming. Bye. Next up we have surprise guest, not on the announcement post we put on an X, but we got Anthony Popleano, good friend of mine, hung out with him in Miami a year or two ago year or two ago We talked YouTube talked all sorts of video essays stuff and he's got a spec He's got a spec now
Starting point is 01:29:10 And he's also launching a an asset manager with like a trillion dollars under management already So he's off to the races left and right big week big week for pomp fantastic show as well so excited to invite him into the studio and catch up with Anthony Pompliano and get a bunch of great takes. You're here. Welcome. Guys, I love to see the suit, but we need some ties going on.
Starting point is 01:29:35 I know. Yeah, you caught us lacking. I was lacking. We're working on a tie that has ads on it. That's our next ad unit. We'll send you one. Thank you so much for joining. How are things going?
Starting point is 01:29:49 What's latest in your world? How are you spending your time? Because you've got a lot of different things going on. Yeah, look, I think that the future is very similar to what you guys are doing, right? You've got to be able to operate businesses. You've got to be able to invest capital. And you've got to be able to create content on the internet.
Starting point is 01:30:01 If you think of what a business really is, is you've got to build products. You've got to be able to invest resources. And then then you got to be able to market those things. And so I don't think there's any different than what people used to do in the past. It's just now that you do it more as kind of an individual brand rather than a company. And that's what we've been doing. Yeah. What, what was the, the, the kind of the, I feel like you're going through like the V2 of the pump media strategy that there's daily show now. And you were building businesses before. What'd you learn from those? And where's this going with the next
Starting point is 01:30:30 iteration? Yeah, I mean, look, actually, we used to have a daily show very similar to what you guys are doing. The best business show, which was hilarious, we'd have to cite us breaking news, you'd have to write the best business show. Good, nice little troll there. But no, like, I think you guys are doing it the right show. That's amazing. Good, nice little troll there. But no, look, I think you guys are doing it the right way. It's like, everyone is up leveling.
Starting point is 01:30:48 And the way I describe it is, when content started on the internet, everyone was basically on their webcam. And then they were in their kitchen in their webcam. And then it was like, oh, I have an extra camera instead of the webcam. Now, we pretty much just think you need TV quality with digital distribution. And so everyone is leveling up. You guys have built,
Starting point is 01:31:06 I think you guys just got a 4,000 square foot facility, you know, all this stuff, right? We've got obviously studio stuff and it's just the cost of the technology is compressing. And now with a very small team, you're able to have massive reach. And I think that's just going to be the future of all this content. Can we just glaze Axe for a little bit? I know you've built a business on X. We love X. We talked to the team earlier this week. I just think that it's so underrated as a distribution platform. People think YouTube and there are other great platforms but the current moment with X has been particularly good for us and I wanted to know what your take on X is, how it's been going, and any learnings
Starting point is 01:31:46 that you have to share. Is Linda hiding behind your camera or something? Like, got a gun to her head? Yeah, she's got a gun to her head. No, we just invited Linda on the show. Yeah, we want to have her on. Amazing, amazing. No, look, I think that every platform is very unique
Starting point is 01:32:00 in what it provides, both in terms of the type of audience. Obviously, who's on LinkedIn is very different than who's on X. LinkedIn finds out things maybe a week or two after people on X find out about it. But also, I think the type of content that lives there is really important, both in the form factor and also the actual substance of it. And so it doesn't make a lot of sense to go and talk about kind of daily news on LinkedIn. It makes a ton of sense to do that on X.
Starting point is 01:32:24 And so what I think many people, including ourselves, have figured out over time is that we were essentially using X as an engine of growth to drive people elsewhere. Go watch on YouTube. Go listen to the podcast. Go read the email. Go to this website. You know, whatever. Why not be able to just bring that content right there in the feed?
Starting point is 01:32:41 And I think that that's really what they have leaned into, and that's why it's working. And so the daily show that we have with them, I literally sit at my desk, talk direct to camera. We cut it up in this modular format and deliver it right in your feed. You don't have to go anywhere. You just consume it right there in these bite-sized components. And it's no secret that your guys kind of clip strategy in the live streaming. Everything you're doing is like very eccentric. And I think that doesn't mean you give up on the other platforms.
Starting point is 01:33:04 It just means that you're building for X and everywhere else is kind of the exhaust of that content. Yeah, yeah, it is crazy. Like there was all this fallout from like, oh, they banned links. I can't link to my YouTube videos. And I'm like, but you can just upload those videos here. Like, like they literally have a video for like, like, and oh, like you, you, you wanted to link to text.
Starting point is 01:33:25 Like you could just put the text on X and it'll do way better. And it's not that complicated. And yeah, you might have to change your monetization strategy a little bit. Maybe the rev share is going to be different on YouTube. It's like a per video thing and acts it's monthly, but like it all works out. You're just playing for attention and reach. And obviously X has this, the thing that I like about the flywheel is like, is like on YouTube, I couldn't every once in a while another creator like
Starting point is 01:33:49 you would comment on my video or I comment on your video, and we'd see each other, but we couldn't DM each other on YouTube. But on x it's like if somebody sees a clip and they respond, Oh, I think you know, pumps wrong about this or I love this, like we can all hop in a DM group chat immediately and just start talking and then hop on the show, do whatever. And so I think the water cooler with all this stuff
Starting point is 01:34:09 is actually really, really inventive. Anyway, Jordan, you got anything else? It's been interesting. People will point out, they're like, I don't understand how TBPN has so much attention. People say it's good, and yet it's small. The YouTube channel is small. It's like, yeah, we don't really spend any time on YouTube.
Starting point is 01:34:25 We were happy to just focus on one platform as, you know, we're a very young company. A ton of important tech people hang out. Yeah. Anyway, let's talk about the other news, the SPACs and the news. How do you raise $250 million? Where does that money come from?
Starting point is 01:34:40 That's so much money. I mean, Jordy and I have both raised money at various times, but like, it's crazy. It wasn't six months ago that I think we were on the show talking about how there's nothing intrinsically wrong with totally back. Totally. It's just been maybe misused or abused in the past. And also just bad timing, right? Because timing and ultimately what matters is the underlying asset, right? Yeah. Are you, you know, what? Give us the pitch for your SPAC and then we're going to pitch you SPAC in TBPN.
Starting point is 01:35:09 All right. I mean, look, I do think six months is actually an interesting timeframe because that's about when I decided, hey, I should go do this. And, you know, look, I got the big audience for years. Bankers have been coming to me saying, do a SPAC, do an RTO, do all these things in the public market. And I always joke that we're all about the same age. Pretty much everyone in our generation watched the social
Starting point is 01:35:28 network and wanted to be Zuck or invest in Zuck. So everyone ran to the private markets. It was like, you know, Wall Street and hedge funds, all that stuff is kind of loser stuff now. The cool stuff is in tech. But we have a world where this undisciplined monetary and fiscal policy is a huge persistent tailwind for liquid assets. Crypto and Bitcoin obviously saw a benefit from this. Gold, public stocks, etc. And so I think a lot of people, you're starting to see them say, hey, how do I marry technology stuff with liquid assets, right? And so you're going to see that.
Starting point is 01:35:54 With the SPAC in particular, I agree with you guys that the vehicle itself is not the problem. It's that people were basically doing public venture capital. Buy a money-losing company with a high valuation. You got to try to grow into it. And some people did do that, but a lot didn't. And so it got a bad name. But what I really have talked about is like, look, if you buy-
Starting point is 01:36:12 The other thing, sorry to interrupt you. There was an adverse selection issue at the time as well, which was that the companies had huge access to capital in the private market. So if they were spacking, it was possible that they had exhausted. Yep. If you couldn't do the stripe thing
Starting point is 01:36:27 and just do a $3 billion tender, you would spack or something like that. But there are businesses today that are fundamentally good businesses that have bright futures that maybe you should just get public and get liquid. I remember years ago talking to a public markets investor and he was like, well yeah, once you're in the public markets,
Starting point is 01:36:44 you shouldn't ever need to raise capital again because you're supposed to just be a going concern. And I was like, wait, what are you talking about? Like businesses lose money. I'm in venture. Like this is what you do. And he was like, no, no, no. Like, like if you're publicly listed, you should not be losing money for a long time because then you just shouldn't be a public company. I was like, Oh, I didn't even think about that. But yeah. Anyway, sorry to cut you off. Yeah. Well, I think that, um, you know, I've always looked at this as if you buy a good company that has all the right criteria to be a public company, um, and you do it at the right price, which is an important component, basically, if you're a disciplined buyer, then it doesn't matter who
Starting point is 01:37:16 the sponsor is. It doesn't even matter what the vehicle is, right? It should do well in the public markets to your guys point. Um, and people weren't doing that. And so I think that that is kind of one big component. The second thing is a huge part of what we specifically have said publicly and in the filings is we want to buy a profitable company. So we don't want to buy a company and then try to make it profitable. Like that's hard. Let's go buy a company that is already profitable. And the reason why that six-month mark was so interesting that you mentioned that is
Starting point is 01:37:41 that's about the time I started to get lots of inbound. And I frankly don't know why. I think some of it was the political change in DC. I think a lot in financial services, there was like a regulatory shift from a headwind to a tailwind. So people are like, okay, like this may be a better time to go into the public market. And then also like think of all of our friends who have built companies that started sometime between like 2015 and 2020. Those companies are just now becoming big enough to actually be public companies. And so there's like that cohort of people are now like ready to get into that public market. And so they're looking for the vehicles to be able to do that.
Starting point is 01:38:10 And we hope that, you know, we're one of many that they consider to be able to do that. How does the actual deal work? Once you find a company, are you buying a minority stake in the company or are you buying the whole company? And then as I remember, it was like, you'd usually see like a couple hundred million dollars in a SPAC, but it'd be trading at 4 billion and then you take a company public and then the share price goes from there. Is that roughly correct? I don't know enough about that. The best way that I know to describe it is like the SPAC gives you a lot of optionality,
Starting point is 01:38:38 which is why I'm attracted to it. So you, we raised 250 million into the SPAC. Um, you have the ability to buy a lot of a company, or you can buy a very little bit of a company, right? But you have $250 million of cash. You do have to go to those investors and say, hey, this is the deal that I found. This is the deal that I negotiated in terms of the economic terms. They vote.
Starting point is 01:38:56 So if you bring them a bad deal, they can also just say like, eh, screw it. We're going to take our money back and like, you know, good luck. So you have to, you know, do a good deal that they obviously are signing up for, but you also have the ability to use pipes and other kind of capital markets tools our money back and like, you know, good luck. So you have to do a good deal that they obviously are signing up for, but you also have the ability to use pipes and other kinds of capital markets tools
Starting point is 01:39:09 so that you can size up in terms of total capital invested in one of these businesses. And then the beautiful thing about this is it's a negotiation with a target company. And so it's two people in the market coming together and saying, this is what we think it's worth, right? This is what they're willing to take, this is what we're willing to buy. And I think that that tends to, if people are together and saying, this is what we think it's worth, right? This is what they're willing to take this, what we're willing to buy.
Starting point is 01:39:28 And I think that that tends to, if people are rational and disciplined, uh, actually end up with something better in the public market. And it's different than a venture fund where the money is not literally sitting in the venture fund. They need to make a capital call with the SPAC. Like the money sits in T bills, right? Is that, is that correct? Yeah, correct. It's in the vehicle. Um, some people have interest, some people don't, you know, there's some nuance there. But basically, you can go to someone to be like, I have the money, I have the money, like, I don't raise the money.
Starting point is 01:39:50 But LPs can't tell me like, hey, sorry, you know, I'm not going to send the money. Like, I got the money. And he's good. First 250. So I mean, I'm super fascinated by this whole industry. And so are people pitching you? Do you expect this to be something where you get an introduction from a venture capitalist or an investment banker or just a founder? Is this like a founder led deal? Or are you going to be going outbound finding some business where they're not even considering
Starting point is 01:40:14 selling because they're profitable, they're happy, and you kind of come in, give them the pitch and say, Hey, this might be the right time to look at something else. Let's let's do this deal. Yeah, I mean, there's a bunch of rules again, in terms of like what you can do. So right now, I can't talk to any target companies that I'll be true for another 2448 hours. But once the deal is closed, I can actually talk, I've got a ton of people who've been reaching out to me, you know, frankly, some of them are probably
Starting point is 01:40:35 interesting. Some of them are I don't know, I haven't, you know, talked to them or done the work yet. But also, I think that you have an idea of like, hey, it would be interesting to go talk to these types of businesses, right. And so you want to go and figure that out. The whole key to this is that. What categories are you excited about? What are you just going to kind of ignore? I don't imagine you're going to, like,
Starting point is 01:40:56 defense tech obviously doesn't make sense, or I would imagine doesn't make sense. Maybe it does. Maybe it could. Maybe it could. There's some profitable things. Only in partnership with TVPN. No, we're very focused on financial services. We do have a legal mandate.
Starting point is 01:41:09 We could do things outside, but financial services is a focus. And the idea there is, I think most people, it's no secret, right? I've got a reputation from all the Bitcoin and crypto stuff. And so like, are you going to go buy that? I just look at financial services as it's all becoming one thing. Robinhood is a traditional exchange business, but they have crypto as a fast growing segment. Kraken is a private crypto exchange, but they're adding US equities.
Starting point is 01:41:32 And so we're just seeing the merging of the new and old worlds in finance. And I think that's where you're going to continue to see this go. Similar to, you know, what we're building with Sylvia. That's what we're going to do on the SPAC side is we're just looking for, um, where can you get distribution directly to my audience with financial related type product services and companies? Um, and then that's where we want to play. Yeah. Talk to us about Sylvia. I know you got 18 million sitting in cash. We got some recommendations for hyper cars. You could pick up if you need one, but break it down.
Starting point is 01:42:01 Stable assets. Yeah. Well, before I tell you about Sylviavia who's the best sponsor? Like maybe we should just talk like you know you guys should just just boast them up a little. Well next up we got Wander so we could talk about finding your happy place. We sing. Find your happy place. Find your happy place. Book a wander with inspiring views. Hotel great amenities. Dreamy beds. Top tier cleaning. 24-7 concierge service. It's a vacation home, but better pump Do it just book a wander today do it right now. We're not letting you Know as you could live in a wander forever people do you have organic integrations? Yeah right there?
Starting point is 01:42:37 We're gonna clip this we're both promoted. It's a dream come true Thank you for participating in that with us. Yeah, you guys got it. So Sylvia is, look, I think every single person I know, who is in like the business tech finance world, they got the spreadsheet. And the spreadsheet is basically the thing that ties together all your accounts in one place. So you know, just like, what do I own? Yeah, there's not usually a lot of expense related stuff. It's all about, you know, how much cash do I have? What are my investments? What are they
Starting point is 01:43:04 worth? All that kind of stuff. And so what we did is we built essentially a box that you go and you attach your brokerage accounts, your cash accounts, your crypto accounts, your private investments, your collectibles. People have added precious metals, guns, cars, houses, all kinds of stuff. In that box, it gets encrypted and anonymized. And then what we did is we overlaid a bunch of AI models on top of it so that you can do simple things like you can
Starting point is 01:43:27 prompt it and say, what's my debt to equity ratio, or analyze my stock portfolio and tell me where you see risk. But also, you can email Sylvia. You can call her on the phone. For those that are wondering, I do not have $18 million in my checking account and 500k in my savings account. At this very moment.
Starting point is 01:43:44 That was some great dummy data. Yeah, it's interesting because I feel like mint.com was popular and kind of fell off and maybe even got shut down. I was getting an email about that. Maybe it's done. And so obviously, this is an opportunity. But those are very expense related. It's all about saving money.
Starting point is 01:44:02 And there is a huge market. Obviously, people in America, there's a lot of people focused on saving money, but I do think that there is this very specific cohort. You know, the data that we have right now, we just crossed over $2.5 billion connected on the platform. It's been about four weeks. Think about it. It's less than a thousand users that have connected accounts. And so these are people who are multimillionaires who are going onto this platform on average and connecting these accounts.
Starting point is 01:44:28 And so to them, it's less about, you know, how do I save money? And it's more about how do I make more money? And that's what they're really trying to figure out. It's like, where's my money? Where are my assets? And then what can I do to actually grow those assets? And we think that there's something interesting to build there. We're gonna let you go but finish it out with where can people get started with Sylvia?
Starting point is 01:44:45 Well after they go and they stay at a wander and they sleep on an eight sleep then they can go to cfosylvia.com and they can check it out there. Okay thank you so much for stopping by. We'll have to have you back for a deeper dive. This is fantastic. Excited to follow this back. We'll talk to you soon. Bye. Next up, we're going over to open AI land. We got an Akunj coming in from open AI talking about a new release, new tools and features in the responses API, their MCP server. We're going to explain, we're going to have him explain the, the adoption of MCP that standard and welcome to the stream. How are you doing? Boom. Yeah, welcome to be here.
Starting point is 01:45:26 It's exciting. Thanks so much for joining. Welcome to the temple of technology. Welcome to the temple of technology. Yeah, it happens to be this podcast specifically, not open AI. Also big, big, probably, I mean, big day and open AI slack today.
Starting point is 01:45:41 Yeah, congratulations on the merger, the acquisition. That's very exciting.O. acquisition. I'm sure we'll get into design and decision making around design and devices at some point, but let's start with the announcement today. Can you introduce yourself, exactly what you do at OpenAI, maybe even how long you've been there and then what you released today?
Starting point is 01:45:59 Yeah, sure. My name is Nikunj. I'm on the product team here, working on our API. Been here for almost two years now. I've been working on the API since day one and mostly focused on getting out new models in the API, releasing new tools, just making the API much easier for developers to use to build applications. So yeah, that's me.
Starting point is 01:46:20 And then today what's the big announcement around tools and features and the responses API? Yeah, sure. So about two months ago, we's the big announcement around tools and features in the Responses API? Yeah, sure. So about two months ago, we released the Responses API. We used to have an API called ChatCompletions that was the thing that almost all of AI was built on top of. We created a new iteration of that endpoint
Starting point is 01:46:42 called the Responses API, which is much more powerful. It supports built-in tools. It supports multiple model turns. It's really natively built for models like O3 and O4 Mini, which have reasoning built into them. And today what we did is we expanded the suite of tools that developers have access to. So the most exciting thing is support for remote MCP servers. And so now developers can plug in their responses API integration into any remote MCP server across the internet. You have servers like Stripe, Shopify, Asana, Linear, HubSpot. And I think this ecosystem is just going to grow so much more over time. Really excited to see what people build on top of it. Is the benefit of direct MCP support
Starting point is 01:47:35 something about latency? Because I imagine that I could be interacting with the chat GPT API or the GPT API and then make a separate call to Stripes API. And I can even have cursor windsurf, right? That integration for me. And that doesn't seem that difficult. And I've, so I've always wrestled with, with MCP being it's great. It's cool. It's a standard, but what's the real value besides saving a couple developer hours writing an API binding library or wrapper.
Starting point is 01:48:04 Yeah, I think there are a couple of angles to this. So firstly, because these organizations and companies are building MCP servers, they're taking an LLM first approach to what the API needs to expose to the agent. So Stripe has a bunch of APIs that can be used to create a subscription or a customer or a product or a price. But for an LLM, they could just sort of combine that into a single function. And instead of returning this massive JSON object, they can return something that's very specific to the task that
Starting point is 01:48:38 was being solved so that the LLM can more easily understand what's happening. So it's an opportunity to rewrite your APIs to be very LLM first. So that's the first thing. The second thing is friction, right? What you said is maybe two hours of work, but why do the two hours of work when you can do it in four lines of code in less than a minute? And so this is just going to make it so much easier for developers in less than a minute. And so this is just gonna make it so much easier for developers to put together multiple tools and whatnot.
Starting point is 01:49:09 The other sort of thing that I'm really excited about is like Responses API, it takes multiple turns. So in chat completions, you would have to like put it in a for loop and like make it keep going until it tells you it's done. Responses API, you give it three or four tools, you give it a task, It'll keep going automatically. Single API call, finish the whole thing and give you the results. So it's truly magical when you, when you get that.
Starting point is 01:49:33 That's amazing. Uh, Rune famously wrote text is the universal interface. Is it just standing over ovation for him over there today? Because this feels like a, this feels like a victory for the text as the universal interface paradigm. But is there more nuance that you could add to that philosophy of machines communicating with other machines via text? Because that feels like, you know, again, the LLM understands JSON. I understand what you're saying, probably faster and smoother. But at the same time, we could just train an LLM to speak JSON, correct? Yeah, totally. I think LLMs can understand JSON.
Starting point is 01:50:11 I guess the meta point there was if you could optimize your tools and combine them for tasks that you want AI agents and developers to be able to do, that's much better, right? Like at the end of the day, a model is not deterministic. So even if you ask it to call like four tools one by one, it's going to have some instances where it takes the wrong step and then needs to backtrack and like fix it. But if you have these
Starting point is 01:50:36 like curated functions and tools exposed via an MCP server that it can directly go to, it just makes it so much more reliable for agents to be able to do the thing that they're designed to do. And so there's definitely some benefit to that. In terms of text, yeah, that makes a lot of sense to me. Yeah, that makes sense to me. How has your general high level view on MCP evolved over the past few months? Were you skeptical at first or were you always excited about the potential of it? It seems like a total MCP victory at this point. Yeah, yeah. Initially, I mean, the main goal was how do we get an ecosystem of tools started? And OpenAI did this thing with plugins back in the day
Starting point is 01:51:28 where we built it all on top of open API specs. And our plugins integration was like a little too early for its time because the models weren't that good at like using these like third party tools really well. And we didn't take a second stab at it, but the MCP folks did. And MCP is great, it supports so much more than just tools. And it took off, it was initially like local only.
Starting point is 01:51:54 So there was some hesitation about like, how will people easily plug into this thing but now with the streamable HTTP protocol so that these things can be hosted remotely across the internet. It's just perfect. I'm so excited about what's going to happen with MCP over the coming months. The hundreds of remote MCP servers that are going to exist, developers are just going to plug into them. It's just going to make things so much better.
Starting point is 01:52:20 So really, really excited about the opportunities here. I mean, currently, most of these, like when you hit an MCP server, you're kind of expecting a few seconds of, of latency just because of how long it takes to inference these models. Uh, I've been kind of beating the drum on, Hey, some of these models are just good enough. Let's bake them into Silicon and make them respond in like two milliseconds. Uh, and I don't know if that's happening or not. You don't need to comment on that,
Starting point is 01:52:45 but I like mid journey V five. I was like, it's good enough. Like just make it instant. V03 I'm like, I'm ready for it just to be like instantaneous. Certainly with deep research and chat, you'll be generally I'm super satisfied. I'm like, I don't really have any, any requests for improvements to the models.
Starting point is 01:53:04 I just want faster and cheaper and easier. But do you think that if inferencing does go through some sort of massive speed up, whether it's from custom silicon or architectural redesign, does geocaching or edge computing become important to the way MCP servers communicate with each other? For example, like I don't necessarily, if I'm going to the Portland AWS hosting of some MCP server, I don't actually want to be routed to Virginia by accident. And so do you think that that will require like a new rethink of the spec or is that something that can just be naturally handled by load balancing?
Starting point is 01:53:46 You know, the spec is just like, how do you communicate between the MCP client and the MCP server? So it tells you like, you know, literally the JSON RPC like object that that needs to go between the two parties. Optimizing the geocaching of it really depends on the service provider, right? So if I'm gonna call mcp.stripe.com or allbirds.com slash API slash MCP, which is by the way, allbirds has an MCP server. How crazy is that?
Starting point is 01:54:15 Shopify has to write around it to like the right place. We need an MCP server. Help us build one. I don't know what we do, but we wanna get in on the action. Yeah, you should. Create a Shopify store and you'll have one instantly. Oh, that's good. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:54:31 Okay. Yeah. For the merge, you can integrate. Yeah. So I mean, OpenAire already does a lot of geo routing based on where the inference request is coming from. So we try to like route it to something near. And then when the request leaves open as infrastructure
Starting point is 01:54:45 and goes to say Stripes or Shopify, they could do that as well based on, either like an explicit URL or something more magical on their end where they can detect where it's coming from and route it to the right place. Makes sense. Any other questions, trends in pricing? I know that there's pricing and availability updates.
Starting point is 01:55:06 Anything to share there? No, pricing is like, you know, it's an infrastructure play over here. MCP is free to use. You just pay for the tokens. We have Code Interpreter, which is like the Python tool. By the way, the Python tool is the thing in O3 that can do geoguessor-like things
Starting point is 01:55:24 when you upload your images. So you can just bring that into the API. Yeah. So why is Python relevant there? Yeah. So what's actually happening is when you, when you put a, an image in the O3 model, it writes Python code to like zoom in, like try to find, tries to find clues. It crops them, it inverts the images. Got it. It then like does web searches. It's like all the image manipulation is based on Python and that is enabled by the code interpreter tool, which is also available in the API today.
Starting point is 01:55:59 That's interesting. I noticed that because I took a picture of a podcast. I wanted to see how tall the table was. I uploaded this image from the Pat McAfee show, and I noticed that when I unpacked the 03 internal reasoning, it was like writing tons and tons of lines of image processing code in Python, all to draw lines and count pixels
Starting point is 01:56:20 to see how tall the table was relative to the person. It wrote like 500 lines, 5,000 lines. I thought we were joking about it. 4.03 yesterday, I said how many white boxes in this picture in it? And it was coding for like almost 14 minutes. Unfortunately, failed. It was like putting a software engineer
Starting point is 01:56:38 on the task for a month. But now you get it in two minutes. But it is incredible. I can see where that goes. It just adds a completely different angle of attack on reasoning and it needs to be an important tool in the tool chest. So yeah, really impressive.
Starting point is 01:56:52 How are you leveraging Codex today? I'm sure you guys got early access, but I'm curious if and where it's fitting into your toolbox toolkit today. I see the engineers using it nonstop. Like we had to make a couple of changes for the launch. We had to like fix error messages. These are like such small things and you can just fire up a codex task and do it.
Starting point is 01:57:18 I've used it for docs changes a bunch of times where I'm just like, there's a typo here, change this heading and these are tiny things. I just like write it, forget about it, create a PR. I mean, I don't have to bug people anymore. It's really helpful. And I think engineers are actually doing even more complex tasks on top of it.
Starting point is 01:57:38 But I just see everyone in the company using it, which is really cool. Very cool. What are you daily driving as a personal smartphone these days? Are you iPhone, Android, maybe something else? I-O, I-O, I-O, you got early access yet? You got something in your pocket?
Starting point is 01:57:54 Okay, okay. No leaks, no leaks today, but we've been asking. Still part of Johnny's legacy. We try to trick you into leaking the hardware here, but we'll get you back next time Yeah, I'm sure we'll find out but it's an exciting. It's an exciting acquisition, but thank you so much for stopping by that's very exciting We'll talk to you soon. Yeah, congrats for you and the team on the on the launch Next up we got David center coming in the temple of technology the godfather of podcasting himself
Starting point is 01:58:25 Brother behavior we need a lot of, we need a lot of sound effects for this one. He's been on absolute tear, dropping podcast after podcast, but today we wanna talk about Johnny Ive. Yeah. And Apple, and Steve Jobs. What would Steve Jobs be doing in this situation?
Starting point is 01:58:42 I wanna play out that scenario for sure And then we got Scott Wu coming in from cognition Talking about Devon coding agents every company has a coding agent now crowded market I want to know how it plays out So we're excited to talk to him about that then we got Joe Weisenthal from Bloomberg odd lots coming on the show We'll get an update on the market. It's been flat for a couple of weeks week for Joe. It's been terrible Yeah, yeah, yeah. He's not getting his dopamine fix. How is he getting through it?
Starting point is 01:59:10 I wanna know. I'm sure he's finding obscure exchanges where things are AI. He might be going 100x short volatility. Yeah. Maybe he's just printing. Might be shorting Costco at 50 times or something. Maybe we'll have to ask him.
Starting point is 01:59:22 Anyway, let's do some more ads in the meantime. Let's tell you about Bezel. Your Bezel Concierge is available now to source you any watch on the planet. Seriously, any watch. Any watch. And I think we got through our ads for the day. Go to Bezel, download the app.
Starting point is 01:59:37 Yeah. Do it. We can also go through some. I'm actually shocked at how frequently I use Bezel I'm a DA you I was talking to quaid Yeah, friend and one of the co-founders and he was like, yeah a lot of like a lot of people actually daily are just DA use Yeah, regardless of if they're like actually shopping right away Well, we got David Senra founders podcast coming into the studio. Welcome to the show We got David Sentra and Founders Podcast coming into the studio. Welcome to the show.
Starting point is 02:00:04 How you doing, David? What's up, guys? Before we begin, I have to apologize for not wearing a suit, but I think you'll make an exception because I'm wearing a ramp shirt. Oh, there we go. It's here at SwitcherBusinessToRamp.com. Save time and money. How you doing?
Starting point is 02:00:23 What's the latest? There used to be this thing, I mean, it's probably still a thing where David like, would you would you'd be happy to meet somebody but the one requirement was that they listen to founders. Yeah, eventually, it's gonna be you listen to founder and your business. I won't take it. Don't check both boxes is not happening. No shot. That's nice. Anyway, what's the latest did you did you read the Bloomberg article about Johnny I've joining open AI okay no you
Starting point is 02:00:53 know what's going on so I just got a bunch of text messages about this I think there's something related to Steve Jobs coming back to Apple we could talk about too that's interesting but no I have no idea what's happening so the article is obviously like it's amazing in the sense that it's Johnny I've a $6 billion acquisition, huge number, 2% of opening I equity going over to Johnny I've and his team. But the and it's also super interesting because they're going to build a hardware device for chat GPT
Starting point is 02:01:21 for for AI and AI first hardware. And if there's any team that can break through with a consumer electronics product, it's gotta be Sam Altman and Johnny Ive, right? Like they are an incredible combination to go after this. At the same time, the article basically said nothing. And they put out a 9 million video and it's just them saying, oh, he's one of the most thoughtful individuals.
Starting point is 02:01:41 He's one of the best people to work with. His family's amazing. And they're just talking about like how much they like love working together. And it doesn't actually give us any advice on like, or any guidance on like, is it a phone? Is it a watch? Is it going to fold? Is it big? Is it small? That's very Steve Jobs. Ask. He'd be very proud. Listen, I guess going into this, like I'm an unabashed, like Johnny Ive, a fan. Okay. There's actually an excellent biography of him that I think fan. Okay. There's actually an excellent biography of him that I think everybody should read. I read it like five years ago. If you want to listen to
Starting point is 02:02:11 the podcast I did on it's episode 178 before you get the book. Yeah. But I'd highly recommend reading the entire book. Yeah. I just I think if you think about like the conversation we had this morning about taking things very seriously, I facetimed you guys at like 6 30 in the morning and you're in your studio like Sitting in these exact seats. Yeah Yeah, like I think that's one of the things that jumps out in Johnny's biography It's just like his intolerance for a lack of effort. So like there's a great story I just pulled up a bunch of my highlights from the book, but when Johnny was in design, he was studying industrial design, I think it was in England,
Starting point is 02:02:51 and there's this great line where a friend of his comes over, they have a project, right, and they're making these like foam prototypes of product they're designing. And he goes in Johnny's apartment and he found over 100 foam model prototypes where most students would build half a dozen. So the normal expectation is, hey, I'm gonna make six prototypes of this new design for this product I'm doing. And Johnny's like, yeah, fuck that, I'm doing 100. And I think when you read the book, it makes sense.
Starting point is 02:03:19 I just tweeted this out where it's actually Steve Jobs, let me pull it up, Steve Jobs talking about Johnny and he's talking about Johnny with Walter Isaacson and he's writing the book with Walter Isaacson as he knows he's dying. And he calls, you know, he says that essentially if he had a spiritual partner at Apple, it would be Johnny. He's not just a designer. That's why he works directly for me. He has more operational power than anyone else at Apple except me. And there's no one who could tell him what to do besides Steve.
Starting point is 02:03:49 So again, I always think of like actions, express priorities, like one of my favorite maximums and Steve is telling you, you know, he had this probably the highest bar of talent out of anybody's ever maybe anybody's ever existed. And he's saying this is the best guy. This is my number two. Yeah. I think that like speaks volumes about like what he thought of in terms of Johnny's talent. Yeah, I mean, it's it's so interesting because I guess the open I guess the open question in my mind is, does Johnny I've need a Tim Cook figure to do what he does. And what I mean by
Starting point is 02:04:23 that is that obviously, Tim Cook's been the CEO of Apple for over a decade now, but he was a supply chain mastermind and Johnny Ive could throw a crazy idea out there like an aluminum milled unibody design for the MacBook Pro and Tim Cook was able to actually go get it done. And in the new era of global competition with China, faltering relationships and not a legacy at OpenAI around hardware manufacturing, which is a unique skill set, can Johnny Ive actually deliver a product that gets into the hands of millions of consumers
Starting point is 02:05:09 with the quality that Apple is known for without a Tim Cook like figure? Will we see another acquisition? Steve Jobs needed a Tim Cook figure. I think anybody does. So like, yeah, the answer is of course he does. Like I will have we have no obviously no idea what they're gonna build. What I think is just interesting is, which way more applicable to us and the people
Starting point is 02:05:29 that are listening, it's just like the study, I just treated this back at Sam Parr from My First Million. It's like, you don't copy the what, you copy the how. And so I think the important thing of like, yeah, you could hypothesize of what Johnny's going to build or just like, hey, how does this guy approach his life and work? Is there anything that he said in there that I could actually use?
Starting point is 02:05:48 And I think that's like much more interesting to me than be like, can you predict what's going to happen with this thing that they're told? No details about. And that like, who knows? I don't know. Like, can they build hardware? Who the fuck knows? Like we're going to find out.
Starting point is 02:06:01 That's the one part. Yeah. But yeah, I'm not into like prediction. I was like, we'll see. Yeah. So I mean, he wasn't a founder at Apple. He became a founder with by founding IO and his his love from his agency. Now he's back in the senior executive role. Can you tell me a little bit about his management style, how hardcore he is, anything that ties to Johnny Ives, like living like founder mode or any of those kind of ties to other executives, kind of what we might expect or what we might pattern match against? Is it just Steve Jobs or other other people? I think he had like, I would argue like, you know, equal to equal to sense of a high threshold for quality that
Starting point is 02:06:46 Jobs did. I was just listening to the episode I did five years ago on Johnny's biography. They thought very similar design and products, and they were very much partners. Almost like a co-founder relationship. I know that'd be controversial, but that's the way I would think about it, how deeply they were working together. But what I say is he's much more more diplomatic where Johnny's like, you know We could do better than this and Steve Jobs like this is shit
Starting point is 02:07:13 And part of that they I think they hypothesize his biographer hypothesizes that it's like, you know His his growing up in England like he's just more reserved and quiet manner But what I loved is, I think the very beginning of the book, the author is interviewing him. And he was, and this is even before he was going to write a book on him. He was just covering Apple at the time. I think he was a reporter, if I remember correctly. And he just like wanted a sound bite on this new Apple product. And he says, I just wanted a sound bite, but he launched into a passionate 20 minutes soliloquy about his latest work. I could barely get in a word edgewise. He couldn't
Starting point is 02:07:47 help himself. Design is his passion. And I think that's just he's just obviously completely obsessed and willing to like work hard. There's another thing that I thought was interesting. He calls it attention to invisible details. It says I've Johnny cared deeply about the parts users would never see believing that quote care was taken even on details hard and soft that People may never discover and he says that he was fanatical He he provided a fanatical care beyond the obvious stuff So these just like that's why I'm just a huge fan of anybody like this I don't care if you're building the iPhone or you're making a pizza like just I I'm very attracted to and obsessed
Starting point is 02:08:23 With people that take whatever they're doing very, very seriously. It's funny that the opposite is is Enzo who's like, I don't care if the door panels align, I care if the driver shits his pants. I would actually argue that they're very similar because Enzo remember like Enzo was building a race car. He wasn't building like he wasn't trying to,
Starting point is 02:08:46 it just happened that when they were winning all the races, then you have all these consumers say, hey, I want a Ferrari though too. But I would actually think like what they both share in common is they keep the main thing, the main thing. And in Enzo's case, he's not trying to buy, build a luxury product. He's trying to literally make the fastest car that that,
Starting point is 02:09:02 he didn't give a shit about Ferrari, the actual auto manufacturer. If you read his biography and in fact, the longest book I've ever read for founders, let me see if I can find it real quick. Uh, was a thousand page biography of Enzo Ferrari. No way. And it's, it was just republished the same author. Uh, this book is excellent. It's Enzo Ferrari by Luca De Monte. So this used to be a thousand pages. No one bought the goddamn book because no one wants to read a thousand pages.
Starting point is 02:09:30 So they edited it down to 450 pages. Wow. Yeah, so if you, you know, Enzo is one of my favorite founders. I've done like three or four. Well, you know that Johnny Ive at Love From, his design consulting agency, one of their biggest clients is Ferrari today.
Starting point is 02:09:46 I didn't know that. And so there's probably some linkages here. It's perfect. So can you give us a little bit more about what we can expect? We were joking about maybe OpenAI should just integrate with the Ferrari. And you just need to buy a Ferrari if you want to access the premium tier of chat GPT.
Starting point is 02:10:03 You can only access it when you're ringing out can only access it. You should only experience it on the saddle leather of a Ferrari. That will only work if they're going to do a collaboration with TPBN. Yeah. I think that's the- Oh sorry, I can't do my homework today. My Ferrari's in the shop.
Starting point is 02:10:19 This summer, I'm going to force you to go to the Ferrari dealer in LA and get one. because if you're really such an Enzo fan Yeah, yeah, yeah Shouldn't you be honoring his legacy every time you go to the grocery store? It's funny. I would I drove past the my daughter used to go My the dot my school my daughter used to go to was actually next door to a Ferrari dealership in Miami Which is like the most magnetic thing ever right? But there's a great I tweeted out when I passed by the other day because it says he had this great line where he's like
Starting point is 02:10:49 Passion can't be explained. It can only be lived Yeah, and I was like, oh that's like a really good way to think about the way it's like but we finished I thought I was just like his primary thing was just like I want the fastest race car in the world And so that's what he meant. He's like, I don't give a shit if the doors don't line up I just when the race car driver hits the gas. I want him to shit his pants, which is also a fucking hilarious Yeah, I wonder what the AI equivalent of that is like what is the Ferrari of AI models right now because they're all I'm personally I'm personally very excited about this I was just talking to our mutual friend Patrick from invest like the best and we both feel very similarly
Starting point is 02:11:24 It's just like I don't want wanna look at screens all day long. So I know you had that guy that's building friend, his name is Casey from the moment. Ovi Schiffman. Ovi, yeah, just this idea, like I'm not saying I wanna wear something around my neck or have glasses on my face, whatever, but anything that would kind of get me out
Starting point is 02:11:39 off of looking at screens is like, I'm very, like I would buy it day one just to test it out. Yeah, John was saying like maybe a Walkman style device with wired headphones, you know, kind of analog, but just piping the AI right into your brain. Maybe a football helmet. I was saying, I mean, packed months of battery. It's interesting, I was thinking it's like,
Starting point is 02:12:00 what is Elon's AI hardware plays? One is Optimus, right? But then the other is actually just Neuralink. He's like I want to jump You know, he could say I want to jump to like the end state which is like human and computer become one Yeah, I want the opposite of that I did this episode on Christopher Nolan and it was very fascinating because this guy makes some of the most high-tech Movies of all time. They're very difficult to make. And yet he lives a complete like analog life.
Starting point is 02:12:28 One of the famous anecdotes from his biography is hilarious where he doesn't have an email, doesn't even carry. He carries like a normal flip phone, won't use GPS, like goes to a new city and has to like feel his way around and ask for directions and everything. But the funny thing was he would people, you know, send scripts everywhere. So they're like, oh, yeah, just like I'll read your script email to me. He's like, I'm going to fly on a plane tomorrow and I'll be at your house at noon. And he'll hand you the script if he wants you to be in the movie. And then he sits there and stares at you while you read it. And then you talk about it and he takes the script back.
Starting point is 02:12:58 There's no other copy. Yeah, man. Everybody's got to figure out their own integration for what they want for technology. I want to disappear in the background. Many cases, like if you study this book and again, I would order the book I would definitely read it It's worth it especially because he's gonna play a fucking huge role at one of the most important companies in the world right now But I just like I want a more like I want technology to disappear I do there is some quotes in the book that might be fascinating that kind of answers your question John
Starting point is 02:13:23 I didn't mean to like sideskirt it all, but as far as like what he, how he thinks about design, he says he takes big chances instead of evolutionary approach to design. And if they focus grouped any of his designs, this is a description from college. It was also accurate when he went to Apple and if they had focused his designs, they would, they wouldn't have been a success. So he's not looking for like, really wasn't interested in like any kind of like iterative design. He wants something that looks completely different. And there is a weird story, I think some people might find odd story from his college days when he was studying design, that he talked about that
Starting point is 02:14:00 the best physical objects, they are very inviting to the touch, that humans have this, I forgot what he called it, like an obsession, he has a word for it, but essentially obsession with touching things. And so he was asked to like design a pen, and people are like, okay, I'm gonna write, you know, create a pen that you can write, and it works upside down, or it never runs out of ink. He's like, no, but what do people actually do with pens?
Starting point is 02:14:21 Like anybody holding a pen in their hand, they're like clicking it, they move it around. He's like they want to look I didn't think he said sort but they want to finger it for lack of a better word So they were like play with it a lot Yeah, and so yeah any kind of physical device that he makes I think isn't gonna just be like oh this kind of looks like An iPhone I think it's gonna be like drastically different Yeah, it's a big challenge And I mean he he's pulled away from Apple,
Starting point is 02:14:45 a lot of the people that were integral to the magic of the devices, the MacBook, the iPhone, all these things. I'm really excited to see it. 2026 can't come soon enough. What about Jim Simons? You did a recent show about him. Very different from Johnny Ive,
Starting point is 02:15:03 but what are the similarities? Because you think about a hedge fund versus a consumer electronics manufacturer, I imagine that there are no similarities and yet I imagine you found some. How much would you pay to rip a heater with Jim Simons and Johnny Ive at once? I mean that's a priceless heater right there. That's potentially a seven figure. This is why I think I got so many text messages and they linked me to whatever article today because opening essentially what bought Johnny's company. Johnny was the founder and it's for like six billion or something, I guess is the thing. And everybody said the same thing in the text messages, like how much money
Starting point is 02:15:41 did Apple pay to like buy back Steve Jobs? Yeah. And this is one of the things that Jim has in common, Rockefeller has a common, Bezos suggested Bezos shareholder letters, which I think is a really good episode, Michael Dell, over and over again. It's like this idea of like, you absolutely must work with the highest quality people you can. And everybody fucking says that and nobody does it because it is so hard to do it. And one of the reasons I also, Brad Jacobs talks about this, like, you have to overpay for talent, because it's nearly impossible to overpay for talent. So that
Starting point is 02:16:11 obviously, the canonical example of that is, hey, Apple is going to buy next for 500 half a billion dollars, they paid essentially half a billion dollars to rehire Steve Jobs, and they got the deal of a century, nobody's gonna look back at what Steve did, like, oh, you overpaid it, It just doesn't happen. So Jim, the crazy thing about Jim, and then actually me and a mutual friend of ours that I can't name just stayed up till like two in the morning talking to this guy that works at Citadel. And it was very fascinating. Like Ken Griffin was the same exact way. We just like, I heard some of the competition
Starting point is 02:16:42 for his top people and guess what? Like they would blow, I think it would shock how much money they make. But then you look at their performance, it's like direct, such Ken won't cap their competition. So like if you make him more money, you're like unlimited money that you'll, uh, that you'll get because of he understands the talent. So the thing about Jim is that's, that's nuts, right? Is he churns through partners. And you know, people say Jim Simons had a hedge fund. I don't think about it as a hedge fund. I think he had a magic money machine. Like it was very different than normal. You know, the fund made well over $100 billion in profit and continues to make from what I understand, you know,
Starting point is 02:17:20 many, many billions in cashflow every single year. And there's no outside money. It's just owned. The only money's in there was Jim's no outside money. It's just owned. The only monies in there was Jim's family's money. And then you have to work at Renaissance. And then if you quit, the reason they have such low turnover is because if you quit, you can't invest in the medallion fund anymore. And so you're never gonna quit.
Starting point is 02:17:37 Go invest somewhere else. But the crazy thing is, so what I'll do is like the fascinating thing is Jim is like churning through partners because it takes him decades of trial and error to actually get the system that he wants. But then he would talk about and he talks about this when he's an older man, too. He'd give interviews much older because he wasn't doing that when he was younger. But he's just like, you have to work with the very best people.
Starting point is 02:17:59 And when you identify the person, you have to just put all the effort you possibly can to convince them to work for you. OK, a lot of people understand that. But then you go look up the people he identified. And it's just like, he hired nothing but mathematicians and physicists. And you'd be like, yeah, it's not just like some professor in a math department somewhere. It's like this guy has a theorem named after him. And he had, there's a wall named after him. It's like literally the top of the top of the top of the top. Because they were, you know, made a hundred billion dollars plus with 300 anywhere from whatever 250 to like 400 employees. So very, very tiny team, small team relative to the profits produced of just
Starting point is 02:18:35 unbelievable a players. And I, I have to imagine that's what, you know, people at open air are doing. It's like, well, who's the best, who's the best design in the world? If we're going to build our own product, who would you go and who's the best design in the world if we're gonna build our own product Who would you go and get and yes two point? Yeah Yeah, two percent. It's totally worth it. That's what I'm saying. It's a big number, but it's a big company It's a big opportunity and of course Josh Josh Kushner was already in I oh So now he's getting
Starting point is 02:19:01 More everything drive gets more Of open AI. Yeah, gets more of open AI. Yeah, but anyways, speaking of mathematicians, we got Scott Wu. Yeah, we got Scott Wu from Cognition coming in next. I'm jealous. I love Scott, big fan of his. Have you guys ever played the video of him
Starting point is 02:19:17 at a math competition when he's like 12 on the show? I mean, it's been viral so many times. We haven't played it on our show, but we probably should. It still plays in my mind. But it's excellent. We many times we haven't played it on our show. Okay should it still plays in my mind But it's excellent. We'll bring him in to the studio. Thank you so much for stopping by. Yep, of course See you guys soon. Love you. Have me talk to you soon. I love you too And we'll bring Scott in in just a second Jordy you want to kick off the intro? Yeah, take a quick break and Maybe do some ad reads talk about his former employer ramp comm switch your business to ramp comm
Starting point is 02:19:47 John use the restroom use the restroom get out of here No dead air. We do not stop talking Scott is in the studio. Let's bring him in Welcome Scott there he is Welcome Scott. There he is. How's he going? What's happening? Good to have you back. Yeah, good to be back. And by the way, I love David Tenra. It's, it's so fun to be on back to back with him. I love the I love the story of recruiting and truly just fighting for the best people. It's I've always felt the same way, which is, you know, people always ask about evaluating talent, which is, of course, you know, it's a very deep thing. But if anything, I think the much more valuable thing is
Starting point is 02:20:29 just, you kind of already know who the really great people are. And the question is like, how can you build your whole organization around, you know, making it the right one for them to join? Yeah. Yeah. The sort of a random story but but was reminded of this I think we talked about it a couple of days ago but Steve Jobs apparently called the founder the original founder of Siri like over 20 times he called him every single day he knew that he wanted Siri to be a part of Apple and he just repeatedly called over and over and over and over and over and over wouldn't stop until he finally said yes
Starting point is 02:21:05 to joining. But I think something about it too is like, I think too, you said something which is like, everybody knows who the best people are, but I actually think that's maybe only the case if you're also ultra elite. No, it's easy, hiring is easy. You just look up who's won an IMO gold medal,
Starting point is 02:21:22 you hire all of them, and then you just raise a bunch of money and then the rest is easy. It's super easy. No, it's fair, it's fair. Yeah, you have to be in the right kind of circles and communities to know the best people, but I generally think that people spend relatively too much time, I think, on evaluating people
Starting point is 02:21:41 who are at the border versus really just fighting for the absolute top tier people. So yeah. Yeah, it's always it's always a mistake to think like Oh, this is like a B player. Yeah, I can make them into an a player Like there's just so much sweat there and the math rarely works out Usually you're better just finding someone who's a great fit for your company your team the skills that they have and you can just Turn them loose and let them run which is always the best fit for your company, your team, the skills that they have, and you can just turn them loose and let them run, which is always the best. Anyway, I mean, tons of news. Every company seems to have an AI coding agent.
Starting point is 02:22:14 I want to know how should I be thinking about the market? I was on X talking to some people. I kind of mapped it out as there is consumer code that is written when I just prompt 03. So the example I gave was I wanted to know how tall a desk was in an image. I uploaded the photo and 03 without me asking it to write code wound up writing a ton of image processing code in Python. I didn't say write code.
Starting point is 02:22:43 It just wrote code for me. That's kind of autonomous AI coding. Now there's Codex, which feels more prosumer. I have a GitHub repo. I wanted to go fix a bug for me. Then there's something more in the enterprise side, like hands on the keyboard all day long. I need a super powered IDE. That's windsurf cursor. And then I'm seeing the top down enterprise deals from companies like Cognition. So how is that the reasonable frame for thinking about the market? Or is it all just winner take all?
Starting point is 02:23:15 Is there one market, are there four? How are you thinking about it? And what are you seeing in the market these days? Yeah, for sure. So a high little breakdown. I think there's a few different project experiences. And by the way, it's fun to see fun to see so many agents coming out this week. But there's a few different product experiences, but I think there's primarily two markets is how we kind of think about
Starting point is 02:23:34 it. And it's, you know, in one line, it's basically engineers and engineering teams versus non-engineers. I think the thing about it with Deptool, you know, I totally agree with your point, obviously, that there's some differences between enterprise and self-serve and so on. In practice, we have both businesses, for example, and a lot of these other players that you mentioned also have both businesses. In practice, I think what happens with developer tooling is engineers are engineers, right? And so engineers are talking to the same people, the same people who are building their own projects at home or also going and shipping pull requests and stuff at work. And there's kind of a lot of overlap in that space.
Starting point is 02:24:14 And so there's kind of the, I'll call it the, kind of like the app builder category of like, build me a simple app. And that's kind of like targeted towards non-engineers today and giving them the ability to write software, build software, like you're kind of saving. And then there's engineers, which there are kind of some subcategories within, but I think for the most part it's all connected much more so.
Starting point is 02:24:36 My current AGI test, I've moved the goalposts 25 times, I'm moving them again. Yeah. My current and my current AGI, uh, goal is if I can go to Google's new, uh, Jules AI agent, and if I can, with one prompt, say, build me Google reader. And it does it then AGI has arrived. That's my new goalpost. Yeah. It's kind of insane. If you think about you. So, so one of the things, you know, there, there was, uh, some research that came
Starting point is 02:25:02 out and kind of people did some statistical analysis. And if you just look at, you know, the length of time that, there was some research that came out and kind of people did some statistical analysis. And if you just look at the length of time that an autonomous coding system can go in between every human intervention, it's kind of insane. It's doubled like every three months. And so that's like 16X a year. We've been doing this for a couple of years now.
Starting point is 02:25:20 So we're like, I mean, not that long ago it was like a couple of seconds at a time and now you're doing hours of work, right. But, but it's like, I just mentioned that because, you know, Google reader is obviously it's like a really great product. You have to imagine they put like a million hours into that. Right. And there will be a point at which it is, you know, that one shot of a million hours of work. But yeah, we'll get there. We'll get there. Yeah, exactly. Yeah. We had Will Brown on the show and he was saying that we, we, we have AGI, but I call it 15 minute AGI.
Starting point is 02:25:45 And so yeah, you can go and do something, but if it's a task that would take a human a week, it's not gonna be one shotable in the traditional sense. It's a single product. How do you and the team think about the balance between wanting to create product experiences that somebody could just be like almost like a demo, right? Like somebody was posting yesterday
Starting point is 02:26:04 that they like one shotshotted a calendar app. And like, that's like cool and, you know, exciting and all that, but maybe not massively valuable. But I'm curious, do you guys have some sort of like internal framework for how you decide whether something is like really worth spending time on? Is it like a truly important problem, or is it just an opportunity to go viral and get attention, but doesn't create
Starting point is 02:26:34 that enduring value? Yeah, for sure. So I mean, in the long term, our target has always been, let's do real engineering work that teams are actually, products that teams are actually, products that teams are really building out there in the real world. And I think the thing that's kind of interesting is, yeah, because it is all one group of people, I think it is the ability to build all these cool things out does matter.
Starting point is 02:26:57 We have a distinction internally where we call it street performer, Devin, basically. It's the version of Devin, where people are asking Devin to just do really cool stuff You know and it's something that we spend some time on but obviously the the core by far is really just like how do we? Have Devin solve real issues and real projects for your cook base. Yeah, yeah street performer. I like that. I do wonder So yeah, it feels like there's still two frames of mind This consumer and enterprise even for stuff that I would call it I would call work there are certain times when like I don't want to open an IDE or I don't have time in my day as a live streamer and someone who does most of their work over email and phone
Starting point is 02:27:39 More of like the executive role. I still will want an engineer to intermediate the products that I wanna build. And I'm wondering if there's a timeline for when that stops happening or I start instantiating whole software products, this idea of like the, it feels like most of the time when you hear someone say, oh, I used AI and I vibe coded an app in the weekend,
Starting point is 02:28:02 they're still a programmer and they're still running a business and they're still working on that 40 hours a week or something like that, but they're just getting a lot more leverage to this. I feel like the really cool moment that's maybe coming is when I actually say, I want Google reader and just build it for me.
Starting point is 02:28:19 And so in terms of shifting that enterprise experience of like real, not street performance, but real software into the consumer, uh, into the consumer space, does that come top down or does that come bottom up from, uh, like the chat box that I'm already interacting with? Yeah. And so, so I, I think both forms are going to happen in the sense that, you know, big companies are gonna look, there's, there's obviously always competitive pressures. There's a lot of relative things going on.
Starting point is 02:28:46 And I think big companies that already have software products that millions of people use, there's gonna be a lot more onus on them to just make really, really great software. It's, I mean, I keep track of this every day when I'm doing things and I run into just bugs in software and the stuff that I'm using, it still happens all the time.
Starting point is 02:29:05 I mean, let's be honest. Try and book a flight. X is the absolute worst culprit here. I interact with more bugs on X than any other piece of software I use. I completely disagree. I mean, it's so much worse if you go and try and book a flight on the American Airlines app.
Starting point is 02:29:24 The bar's so low. I don't know. The bar's so low. I don't know. I get it. Go ahead. Sorry. No, go. I was going to say, yeah, so that's, you know, their product quality is going to have to get way, way better there.
Starting point is 02:29:34 I think the other side is also going to be true, which is individuals are going to be able to build cooler and cooler apps. But yeah, I mean, I think the high level kind of general trend is, as we're saying, you know, as these tools get more and more autonomous, like you want to be able to just use them for longer and longer stretches of time, which is, I mean, which is which is pretty topical given all the agent launches that we've seen this past week. So talk to me about positioning against Google's offering my experience from as a consumer. I only interact with Google right now on the AI front as a consumer.
Starting point is 02:30:06 Obviously I've like run ads on Google from a business perspective, but in general, I see a Gemini launch and then as a consumer, it's very, very hard for me to access that product. That I have five different Google accounts, I can never tell which one is on the Google AI premium tier. I finally got in, I got access to VO3, it was an incredible model, Google AI premium tier. I finally got in, I got access to VO3.
Starting point is 02:30:25 It was an incredible model. It felt like they were truly a step above and there was kind of a chat GPT style moment for video given that the audio comes through. It's super photorealistic, it's a great experience. And it justified me not only paying $500 a month but going through the UX hurdle. Is the developer experience on the enterprise side dealing with Google
Starting point is 02:30:48 similar or are they more dialed in there because it's more important because I imagine that one of the advantages that you have as a startup in the enterprise sales space is that you can do founder led sales. You can take the needs of the enterprise into account, much more, uh, different SLAs, more custom solutions. There's so many more things we can iterate, even if Google is able to come out with something that is like, wow, okay, they're really good at research, but on the product side, maybe it's lacking.
Starting point is 02:31:16 Yeah. Yeah. So it's, you know, Google has jewels now, open AI has the Codex launch, you know, GitHub is doing, doing more with agents as well. And can I just tell you, I mean, we have always had the view that everybody's going to go do this eventually. No, it'd be really bearish if everyone was like, oh, no,
Starting point is 02:31:32 Scott's just kind of crazy. I don't know what he's up to. I don't think it's a good idea. It's like, no, you should inspire a bunch of people to be like, that's a good idea. We're going to do it too. And then you should still beat them. Yep, yep.
Starting point is 02:31:45 Yeah, yeah. And it's like parallel asynchronous coding agents, you know, it has been, it's been the core bed of our entire company basically for the last year and a half. And I think it's really interesting to see. Yeah, and so I think there are a few factors going on. Like I do think there will be multiple players, you know, in the longterm, but to your point, John,
Starting point is 02:32:03 I mean, I think there's also just a lot of meaningful differentiation. I think the thing that's so interesting about the coding agent space is it is truly, you can kind of look at most spaces and kind of call it, I'll say, this is a capability space. This is a product space. And to just give you a few examples, I would say it's
Starting point is 02:32:22 like image generation. It's like, sure, there's a lot of icing you can put on, I would say. It's like image generation is like, sure, there's a lot of icing you can put on and things like that. But at the end of the day, if you just have a way better image generation model, that is the core. That is the meat of what you're building. And on other spaces, for example, like customer support or something like that,
Starting point is 02:32:40 no one would disagree with you that the capabilities are there. And a lot of it is just like, what is the right interface for humans and AI to really work together and get that going? With coding agents, it is truly both. On the one hand, obviously, yeah, every IQ point really matters in the system that you build and every piece of data that it can use and analyze and work for it, it really matters.
Starting point is 02:33:03 And then on the other hand, the software is just messy enough and deep enough that it can use and analyze and work with, it really matters. And then on the other hand, the software is just messy enough and deep enough that you do want to have a lot more control of what's going on. You want to be able to specify these details. You want to be able to check in and review the work yourself and all these other things. And so there's a lot of deep work with interface. And yeah, I mean, in short, I think
Starting point is 02:33:21 these are the kinds of problems that we've been thinking about for the last year. And so it's, yeah, I mean, in short, I think these are the kinds of problems that we've been thinking about for the last year, you know? And so it's fun to see. And, you know, the fun thing, too, actually, is like, I mean, we're up 30 percent week over week, actually, with just the... And I think there's kind of a funny thing, which is like, you know, people know how to use chat bots, right? And it's like something that we've all kind of learned over the last couple years. I think the agent form factor is just really different, right, and it's something that people have to learn
Starting point is 02:33:50 and have to understand, and now that everybody's talking about agents, it's actually been great for us. So. Do you think deep research is part of that? Like, I feel like deep research for a lot of people is their first introduction to agentic AI in the sense that it's like, you fire it off and you let it go for 20 minutes and then come back.
Starting point is 02:34:09 Yeah, yeah, yeah, for sure. I think the whole asynchronous kind of action is really like a big piece of it. And I think it's, you know, we were talking about this last time, but it's like agents are going to be everywhere, you know, pretty quickly. And there's no reason you shouldn't have an agent who's, you know, going and buying your flight so you don't have to go on the website yourself or going and, you know, pretty quickly. And there's no reason you shouldn't have an agent who's going and buying your flight so you don't have to go on the website yourself or going and, you know, all of these different things. And I think for a few reasons,
Starting point is 02:34:32 code has kind of been the first place where that's really taken off, but yeah. This is a total wild card, so feel free to pass if you haven't dug into it, but Ben Thompson was talking about the agentic web, we're talking about agents now. Uh, and he was kind of noodling through the idea that stable coins could be a relevant tool in the toolkit for the agentic web.
Starting point is 02:34:54 As you, you know, ask the, one of the examples was plan a birthday and it's doing a lot of things on online. Maybe it's buying a birthday cards. It's also looking up a cake recipe and then printing that out. Well, that cake recipe website is monetizing with advertising right now. Stablecoins in the future,
Starting point is 02:35:12 you could just pay a tenth of a cent for that page visit. Are you thinking about stablecoins at all? Does that sound reasonable to you? Just if you noodle on it, how do you think about this stuff? Yeah, for sure. So I mean, I think with building software engineering agents, we're probably on the further end of the way from it. Crypto pivot.
Starting point is 02:35:31 Yeah, not a lot of it. Yeah, I imagine that not a lot of customers are paying 1 tenth of a cent for Devon right now. It's probably more in the hundreds of dollars. It is an interesting thing, which is maybe one way to put it is a lot of the norms of the internet are going to have to change. We have CAPTCHAs, for example, which is like, maybe one way to put it is like a lot of the norms of the internet are gonna have to change, right? We have CAPTCHAs, for example,
Starting point is 02:35:47 which is kind of how you prevent bots. And it's almost like CAPTCHAs aren't really the right system where you actually now want your agents to be able to go and navigate on the internet and do things for you. And like a simple example of that for us is like, this is again, totally unrelated to software engineering, but it's like, we give Devon our ramp card and then Devon just goes and orders groceries for us
Starting point is 02:36:05 and stuff like that. It's like, yeah, it's great. But you can imagine, there's a lot of these systems of like, yeah, how should agents interact with money in the real world? How should they, how can products and websites and stuff have the right incentives if it's not humans that are going to them anymore, but agents and humans?
Starting point is 02:36:23 And so yeah, a lot of questions. Has Devin ever missed a memo on a ramp receipt, or is Devin pretty good about that? I think Devin's got it all down. Devin takes screenshots and stuff as well, so it's all. Yeah. How are you thinking about the sort of stack, right? Because I know you guys have a partnership with Linear.
Starting point is 02:36:41 Obviously, we work with Linear. There's this idea that, much like a member of a team, an agent can kind of appear in a lot of different places. A teammate can be in the office, they can be in a Zoom call, they can be in Slack, whatever. And how are you thinking about kind of like agentic orchestration and orchestration, right? And sort of managing agents.
Starting point is 02:37:07 Yeah, linear is, by the way, they just had to launch this week. They had to launch this morning actually. So yeah, shout out to the linear team. And yeah, it's an interesting one. I mean, speaking of this kind of like product interface question, right? You know, a lot of the work that you have to do is really like, you know, I think one of the big difference between chatbots and agents is an agent is truly, like, it truly needs to be, like, basically an employee in the same way, you know? It
Starting point is 02:37:38 is really like you as an engineer are using your team of junior buddies who are going to go and, like, implement this stuff for you, right? And so like a lot of what that means is it has to be in all of these same systems, you know, in order to work really cleanly. And like the standard workflows that we have, I mean, we have Slack, for example, we have linear and Jira and so on, but it is a big part of it. Last question, actually from your post, you asked for questions from people who follow you and Remy Olson asked a great one. What do you see as the primary limiting factor for coding agents between context window reasoning, which I imagine is just the amount of,
Starting point is 02:38:17 of inference, uh, you're delivering to reasoning tokens, managing complex environments or other things. Yeah, I think of those, I would say, I would say managing complex environments is probably the biggest one. In the sense that, look, if you like, speaking of 15-minute AGI, if you give it a very contained coding problem where it's just like, all right, write one file of code that solves this thing, it's honestly, it's already insanely good. Sure. You know, AI is already basically there, I would say, on that. I think that the areas where you see these agents or models in general really slip up is kind of stuff where you actually just need outside information to go
Starting point is 02:38:59 and do what you're doing. It's like the simple examples are if you're fixing bugs or you're implementing things, you want to be able to go and test the code yourself. This is a big part of why connecting with all these systems is so important. And so, you know, plugging into Slack or linear, for example, makes it really easy for you to kick off your Devon runs or whatever it is. But but I think a big part of it, too, is like, if you guys are actually doing your issue tracking in linear or if you guys are, you know, this is how you do front end deploys and this is how you run the linter or something like that. It is obviously, you know, the agent is going to be super handicapped if it doesn't have access to the same things. And you know, the next step beyond that, obviously, is not just accessing those things, but but
Starting point is 02:39:36 learning how to really intelligently work with these and use them to make decisions. Any reaction to the llama for behemoth? I think I saw 10 million token context window seems bigger than ever at the same time Kind of been going back and forth on how that project is progressing. Yeah kind of mixed reactions online. What's been your takeaway from that? Yeah, there's a lot of cool projects working on longer context windows I would just kind of give as as one point which is It's interesting. You know, if you think about human to give as one point, which is it's interesting. If you think about human thought, which is not always
Starting point is 02:40:08 the best parallel, but is obviously is the one example that we do have, humans actually have terribly small context with this. When you get the six digit code, it's like, I don't know, it's pretty hard to remember what the six digits were and type those in. So your context is like. Goldfish mode.
Starting point is 02:40:25 Even with coding, it's like, once you have to remember the three different files, it takes you a while to spin up the context window and then you don't wanna get pulled out of coding, you wanna be in the flow. And so the thing that humans are really good at, I would say, is almost more intelligent retrieval, to your point, which is like,
Starting point is 02:40:42 you pull up this file and you're looking at it and you're like, oh yeah, I remember why we did this like two months ago And then you're kind of like you can kind of like replay it in your head almost That's kind of the thing that's that's that's really interesting I don't think it's so I guess a long story short is like I think long context is gonna help a ton It's gonna make things a lot better but but I think there are some kind of like fundamental things of like How do you access all of the information that you need?
Starting point is 02:41:05 Access to to make this decision that's right in front of you right now, which is like context alone doesn't solve that problem. Sure Well, thank you so much for coming on. This is fantastic chat This is great. Have a great day. We'll talk to you soon And up next we have Joe Weisenthal the story of 30% week of a week pretty big Wednesday Well, welcome to the studio Joe bring him in bring him in bring in Joe wise and I don't want to wait anymore. Oh Thank you, how you doing for having me I'm really good I'm thrilled to be back here How are you? What are you? The markets the market was flat on Monday and we didn't know what to do normally
Starting point is 02:41:48 We're either depressed and praying for something to change and then or celebrating a big update We've seen this like 5% swings and it's just been boring. It's so painful I thought like, you know the market stopped moving and I was like the technology brothers will never have me back They'll never have me back. They'll never have a reason to call me again. I had one month of relevancy, people listening to my podcast because the lines were moving up and down and then they stopped and I'm like, okay, well I enjoyed it while it lasts. It's all over. It's all obscurity. So we're happy. We were having you on to move.
Starting point is 02:42:22 You want to have me back on the show. We're having you on to move the market. Yeah, this will drive the market. We'll see what we can do here. We want to create some volatility just off of some Zingers. Well, I mean, so with the trade war, we RIP. Yeah, I kind of had this somewhat controversial take that the trade war was not like COVID or the or the interest rate crash because
Starting point is 02:42:47 The the person who caused it could immediately undo it and Trump could roll it back He did what you did and I was talking to Jordan Schneider trying to talk about this like he was saying like no this time Is different. It's not gonna be like the trade war from Trump one. We're gonna look back on this is like the beginning of the end It's terrible. He was very doom-pilled, but it feels like now if we flash forward four years We could be looking back on this and being like that was a crazy month But it wasn't that big of a deal in like the world historical context. What do you read on it now? It's a really tough call because I was very sympathetic to that and then as soon as he walks back You're like, of course, he was gonna walk it back
Starting point is 02:43:24 We have a laugh track now. I love that. It's so professional. All that being said, a 10% baseline tariff on the rest of the world is not nothing. We're now a high tariff country. There is this pause, but a 50% tariff for whatever it's going to be is not nothing. These are not complete nothings. And I do believe that they will change the economy in some ways that they anticipate. Look, when he unveiled that chart on April 2nd, I thought it was like, well, he's basically unplugging
Starting point is 02:43:55 the economy. We can't function with these levels. And he sort of realized that too. He said the bond market got yips. He went back and then he probably heard stories about potential empty shelves or places like Walmart and Home Depot and back. And then he probably heard stories about potential empty shelves, a place like Walmart, and Home Depot and stuff. And then he dialed it back further. We're still in a new era though, of trade. It might be more like Brexit, where it's like, yeah, if you go to, I was in London a few weeks ago, it's still the same old UK, it's still a pretty like rich country, it's doing well, but it's, they haven't grown that much. It hasn't been particularly good. So it might be the kind of thing
Starting point is 02:44:27 where we don't notice it dramatically, except maybe it's that we don't grow as much as we could. Who knows though? Can you tell us to the- I don't know if it's the weather, but when I'm in the UK, it's something about the slow growth of the economy. You can just feel it.
Starting point is 02:44:42 You can smell it. Well, hopefully that doesn't cover America. Can you tie this to the credit downgrade? How serious is that? Should we care about what Moody's thinks about us? No, I don't. I don't care about credit ratings. I mean, I'm sort of a strict view that we borrow in currency.
Starting point is 02:44:58 We borrow in dollars and print dollars. So we'll never default. But there is a, you know, I would say there's two things, which is one that, you know, I would say there's two things, which is one, that, you know, it looks like we're going to get some sort of inflationary mix, potentially, between tariffs and tax cuts. So that tends to not be very good for treasuries. And to the extent, you know, that like, policy changes in the US are now everyone understands that they can be unilaterally changed on a whim, Probably not great. All things considered for the perceived institutional stability. So that's probably also not great at the margin for the international proclivity to invest in the United States.
Starting point is 02:45:36 The one thing that's really notable is that a lot of markets clearly have rebounded to an extraordinary degree, most notably the stock market. Yeah. The dollar is still very weak. Bitcoin, all time high. Bitcoin, all time high. Amazing. The dollar is still very weak. We had you and Pomp on today.
Starting point is 02:45:52 Well, can I, by the way, oh, Pomp was on earlier? Yeah, he was a little surprise guest. Can I just say, the first time I was on this show, one of the questions the two of you asked me was, will SPACs ever come back? Yeah. And I said, well, Spax. Yeah. And I said, well, in my lifetime, they will definitely come back. Pumped it has a new spec.
Starting point is 02:46:10 I said, when I said that specs would come back, I was thinking like five, 10, 15, 20 years. They said, they said pump doesn't have the balls to launch a spec in the year 2025 and he proved them wrong. And he proved him wrong Proved him wrong. I've never had a prediction come true that fast as that one. So I appreciate pump Vindicating my last appearance on TBPN. That's great vindicated. I Want to talk about like like the Middle East deals
Starting point is 02:46:45 What was your read on on all that? It didn't seem like it was super market moving per se, but it was very big in tech. And it seems like there's this new era of cooperation there. It seemed like amid all the turmoil of the tariffs, there was like this bright spot of like some really strong new alliances. Obviously there's some controversy there, but what was your read on the on the mid-east news? You know, I've been posting about this a lot, you know, since I hit my mid-40s. I've been reading a lot about the Cold War and mid-20th century history because that's what you do at my age and so forth. But one of the things that I've been reading about lately is that one of the, you know, every time the U.S. and the Soviet Union
Starting point is 02:47:23 appeared to have some period of detente, so to speak, one of the entities or one of the, you know, every time the US and the Soviet Union appeared to have some period of detente, so to speak, one of the entities or one of the forces that pushed the countries apart were the sort of like the human rights groups, etc., that really didn't like, you know, various activities going on in the Soviet Union, and that often made it difficult to have peace. It's an interesting thing to think about, well, what if foreign policy just became a little bit more transactional, we sort of accept that like, there's like a very different system in this country, then, you know, this other country, but you know what, maybe we can have stable relations, if we agree to sell them cutting edge GPUs to set
Starting point is 02:48:01 up an AI. It's an interesting thought. And I don't have like, extreme or strong views on foreign policy. It's not my wheelhouse. But it's an interesting thing to think about. You know, for so long, there was this view that, you know, like an important aspect of stable relations was some sort of common ground in governance and values and so forth. And maybe we're entering this era where stable relations are who we agree to sell chips to. On the other side, it's an interesting thing to think about. Jensen, another hundred billion for Jensen. Yeah. Yeah. Jensen keeps winning. Yeah. I mean, have you been tracking how many conferences he's been going to? He's it feels like he's a different
Starting point is 02:48:46 conference every single day and yet normally that would be a very very Distracting for a CEO, but every time he goes to a conference he leaves with a hundred billion dollar deal So it seems like it's working It's really it's really remarkable and you know again I don't know how much like I've been trying to think about this, like, because the way people are talking about AGI, and you guys have probably a lot of guests who know way more and being out there is like, you know, the race to achieve AGI is something akin to like, which country will develop the nuclear bomb first, we must get there. I don't know, feels a little sci fi to me.
Starting point is 02:49:21 I don't know how much to take that seriously. Other people are better equipped to talk about that. But there is this sort of like simple business story, which is like ecosystem that powers AI, or could it be the Huawei ecosystem, which is coming on strong. And so to the extent like just from a business standpoint, Jensen going around the world, making all these sales, potentially boxing out Huawei from the Middle East, just from a business standpoint, seems to be doing very well. Yeah, we were just talking to Scott Wu from Cognition,
Starting point is 02:49:52 they have an AI coding agent, and this idea that we have AGI, but it's just 15 minute AGI. Like you can get an agent to go and do 15 minutes worth of research for you and compile a little a little dossier for you in deep research. You don't have AGI to the extent that you can just say go create economic value for
Starting point is 02:50:11 the rest of your life like you can with a human and the economic incentives just lead to a person finding their way in the economy and finding a job and buying things and consuming things. I still haven't had like a great experience yet with any of the agent tools. Someone asked me, they're like, do you have a list of all of the Twitter handles of guests that have appeared on ODLODs? And I was like, no, but let's see if I can do that.
Starting point is 02:50:36 So I went to Manus, the Chinese, Manus.im, and I said, can you put this together? Oh, yeah, sorry, I know. And then it was. It's pronounced Manusus too, by the way, mannus. And then it worked for like, it was like 30 minutes later, I went back and checked and said, Oh, you're out of credits. So I did, I never even got to see if it worked yet. Yeah. I don't know. I have yet to experience. Well, the question for me is, is how long
Starting point is 02:51:00 would, do you think it would take, you know, like a, like an intern to do that job? Well, it would take a really long time, but like, I don't even like but you know like my experience I think we may have talked about this last time like My experience like I'm still not Totally convinced that they're like reliable. Yeah, I don't know like I think you make a good point. It's just that when I think of 15-minute AGI, I think that what's a 15-minute job? It's look at the most recent ODDLOT show notes
Starting point is 02:51:30 and find me the one Twitter handle for the guest. And now if you want to do that 200 times, that's not 15-minute AGI. That's one week AGI. And you need to spawn all these different processes and orchestrate them and fact check them and build that up. And so yes, man, I should be able to do that, but it's not there yet.
Starting point is 02:51:48 I think it's just wildly unreliable right now. And so sometimes you get an output that is 10 times faster and better than your best employee. And then sometimes it just completely fails and we're not really equipped to process, okay, is yeah agent good okay well sometimes an agent is incredible and then other times it's like yesterday I wanted it to count a bunch of boxes and it like worked on it for 14 minutes
Starting point is 02:52:14 and fail I completely agree like I'm every day still and by the way I've Suno the music app I'm a songwriter that's incredible that actually of all the AI tools that I've played with That might actually be the one that's most incredible I've been doing this thing where I just sing a song into my phone And then I say now produce this to sound like an 80s country song and it actually works So that like some of these things just like absolutely blown away Because with music there's no right answer. Like there's no, there's no, oh, you got one character
Starting point is 02:52:49 wrong in the Twitter handle and it's not gonna resolve, right? But if you get one note slightly wrong, but it still sounds like music, you can kind of chalk that up to the vibe or slight differences. And so I feel like that's why the image generation, it's less like binary.
Starting point is 02:53:07 Or you have code where it compiles and it can work against itself and check, OK, does the code work or not? Try again, try again, try again. And so you either need to be, when you're in the messy middle of human management, decision making, analysis, that's where AI is really struggling right now. So just going back to the question of like,
Starting point is 02:53:25 can AI compile all of the Twitter handles from every guest? I'm guessing the answer is yes. On the other hand, if that's what AGI is, I'm not really sure it's existential, whether like the Chinese model is better than open AI. AGI is when you can ask ChatGBT to bring down the long end of the yield curve because it's really getting up there and right now if I could just go into chat GPT and say hey let's do something that we need to that we need to develop right away yeah let's talk
Starting point is 02:53:58 about this I know you have a project level urgency yeah. I know you have a podcast episode coming out tomorrow about bond yields globally, what's happening. Could you give people a little teaser preview on that, and then they can go listen to the full thing? Absolutely. Thank you so much for letting me plug our episode tomorrow. Stephen Englander, Standard Chartered, one of our favorite thinkers.
Starting point is 02:54:23 We actually never had him on the show. You know, the story, there's a few moving parts to what's going on. But a big thing is this combination of countries around the world are spending more money. They kind of have to because, you know, like, again, we talked about US foreign policy. Germany doesn't know if the US is going to be the same type of ally Trump for years even going back to his first administration, obviously encouraging the NATO countries to sort of more formally meet their commitments. So you have increased spending. At the same time, you have tariffs, which are going to make business more costly, less effect, probably
Starting point is 02:55:01 less efficient, because you're not going to have the most optimally designed global supply chain that would exist in a world of pure free trade. So you have this combination of every country sort of having to become a little bit more self-reliant, at least in some respects. And you certainly see that in a lot of like tech areas, weapons, probably food even as well, energy and so forth., combined with the fact that you know, you're having sort of less efficient supply chains. That's probably all things consider means, you know, more inflation and for to hit inflation targets, central banks are going to have to generally speaking, keep rates up. We might get rate cuts in the US in the short term. That's what Stephen Englander thinks that's certainly what the market is pricing.
Starting point is 02:55:45 But he thinks the window for that will be pretty short. And maybe even by next year, we could be talking about rate hikes again. Yeah, I know. I know. We need that AGI. We need that AGI to break down rates. How do you think the big tech companies have been changing their tune around how they talk about AGI? It used to be all about safety, which you know, I think a lot of people kind of just gotten sick of the safety argument. Now it's all product and all of a sudden, it's we're not moving fast enough. You know, Siri isn't good. Yeah, it's confusing. It's a little bit confusing because I mean, first of all, I agree the safety story feels very yesterday. This is such a business story the market
Starting point is 02:56:25 Just for better or worse and I don't really have a view on safety But the market for better or worse seems to be dictating to the companies It's like no you got a race ahead as best as you can you do not have an alternative To this and so forth and you even see it, you know Obviously like when deep sea came out and it it displayed its reasoning, open AI had to respond, and it started displaying some of its reasoning models. So there's the sheer competitive aspect that like, you just sort of got to do what you got to do for like,
Starting point is 02:56:54 the product side. On the other hand, there are things that the tech companies are doing that do not sort of seem to me, oh, within a year, they're going to build or within a couple of years, you know, they're going to have these brains that are thousands of times more intelligent than the, than a human. I saw there was something about opening. I think about a social network. They hired a CEO for like product and revenue. There's that news today about buying a heart. You've already done the odds, this does not. These sound like ventures or these sound like investments that are about making money for a business consumer tech and do not sound
Starting point is 02:57:33 like we are building something insane in a lab that is going to change the world. So it feels like there is this impulse among the big AI companies of various flavors to basically build good businesses and profitable things, rather than this technology that you know, is going to render human existence obsolete in some way or another. Yeah, yeah. And it feels like OpenAI as a lab, there could come a time when OpenAI could kind of, what's the right phrase for it?
Starting point is 02:58:08 But effectively, like OpenAI will be in a position where they can be like, yeah, we're a consumer internet company. Yeah, and they're a huge one. And there will be other labs that don't have the luxury of saying that. And it'll be interesting if there's like this kind of divergence in companies. I mean, the flip side of this. You have to keep the A of saying that. And it'll be interesting if there's this kind of divergence in companies
Starting point is 02:58:26 that have to keep the AGI narrative going. I think the steel man on the AGI narrative is that would we have gotten this amazing consumer technology and enterprise technology and all this value without the crazy AGI narrative that drove nonprofit investment in highly unprofitable research? And it's kind of like, I feel like everyone makes the comparison to nuclear. But when I play back the story on nuclear, it's like America did this incredible
Starting point is 02:58:55 Oppenheimer Manhattan project to develop the bomb, which I don't see is really like a good thing. Like the bomb, obviously, it's just like, it only destroys things. And then it immediately becomes this arms race and this equilibrium is just that you have to build a ton of them, but none of them get used. They create no real economic value, right? But the good ending of nuclear would
Starting point is 02:59:16 have been energy too cheap to meter, nuclear power everywhere. We didn't get that. And my hope is that we're in the situation where we have the panic scare around a GI as a weapon. But we don't go the nuclear path where, oh, you can't possibly have chat GPT. It's too dangerous. No, I agree with you. And I think if you look at like, I
Starting point is 02:59:37 mean, it is absolutely extraordinary. The rate of growth that big, big tech companies are growing from. I mean, this is what's sort of breaking the brains of everyone in the market, which is that everyone's been long, big tech forever. They're the biggest companies in the world, and they're still putting up some of the biggest earnings growth that you can find anywhere on the market off of a gigantic base. And I do think part of that story is gotta be that the CEOs really believe to some extent. And I don't know exactly what they believe and I don't know exactly what AGI is and they probably all have different definitions, but they probably all believe it's like, no, like
Starting point is 03:00:16 we're not going to slow down our spending on this stuff because we haven't achieved that thing that's out there that will be so special if it's achieved. Well, I got to ask Joe, would you rather own Costco at 59 times earnings, Costco at 59 times earnings, or Google at 19? Reticary chickens. You'll never get me to give financial advice. You'll never get me to give financial advice. get me to get fine. Why is ever you tell me? Why is everyone so negative on Google these days? What's the story? I don't I think it's Hard to access like they're incredible research lab
Starting point is 03:00:54 But they but they haven't communicated very effectively around the product So they introduce the product and it's in a research preview They have a paper but in order to access it, like chat GPT, when there's a new feature, you go to chat.com and it just says, use this thing. And with Google, it's like, there's the Gemini app and then there's Gemini smart responses. And then that's the product experience. And then there's obviously like the threat to the core core, right? If you just wind up searching in ChatGPT, you stop. They got a knife on the neck of the golden goose.
Starting point is 03:01:28 Yeah, no, it's true. The Google AI products, some of them are extraordinary. I've played around with some of the coding tools. Notebook.lem is a very useful tool for research. It is true that no one would ever know how to find any of this. It's really hard. Well, it's in the App Store now. Notebook.lem is find any of this. It's really hard. It seems so hard. Well, it's in the app store now. Notebook LM's in the app store.
Starting point is 03:01:47 It's charted. Notebook LM, what kind of name is that? Who would even know what they are? It does seem, I don't know. What kind of name is Joe Weisenthal? Yeah, but what kind of name is like 03mini? Yeah, they're all bad names. They're all bad.
Starting point is 03:02:01 The names won't matter. The names don't matter, I think. But yeah, there's something about like Google is, They're all bad names. The names the names won't the names won't matter the names don't matter I think but yeah There's something about Like Google is if they really really went full tilt into AI They would just say google.com is our AI product Yeah, instead of there's a separate app Gemini and like you can go over here I would bet extra thing instead of being like no like we are an AI company. Could you see that happening?
Starting point is 03:02:25 No, no, I don't think the company set up for it at all. But I think that it might be different if it's Mark Zuckerberg and he owns 100% of the shares and he can just do whatever he wants. It's a private company and there's no investors that can sue. There are different structural dynamics at Google than at a small startup. I can just see it being more as a spectrum.
Starting point is 03:02:44 Yeah, please. Can I ask another question to you guys? Do you have a clear way to articulate the benefit that Metta is getting from all of its AI spending? I mean, yes, because the first, like the base use of AI at Metta, the number one, like just energy cost in GPUs is ads, delivery of ads.
Starting point is 03:03:09 But isn't that just good old fashioned machine learning algorithm stuff? Like what does that have to do with a lot of generative AI? It's the same thing, it's the same thing. Like the algorithm that decides what ad to serve you when you're scrolling Instagram is a big transformer now. And so it's a bunch of weights, just like an LLM,
Starting point is 03:03:25 but instead of taking a text and putting out text, it takes in everything that you've looked at, how long you looked at it, what you liked about it, whether you commented. So it's just getting better and better at targeting. Exactly, and so that's a huge training run. They never talk about this because it's not sexy and it's not the new hot thing.
Starting point is 03:03:40 But you can think about the meta ads training run as similar to a GPT-3, GPT-4 level training run. And then the Reels algorithm for what content to serve you, not just what ads, that's also another huge vertical. And so when Zuck went to build out the Reels algorithm farm, the server farm that would power the Reels algorithm, because it's billions and billions of data points, right? He said, I don't want to get caught flat-footed again like I did against TikTok, because when TikTok came up
Starting point is 03:04:10 and the whole algorithm shifted to, I need to rank every piece of content across the entire network and match billions and billions of videos with billions and billions of users, he said, I don't want to get caught flat-footed again, build me two data centers that are the same scale. And then he had extra capacity thinking about, OK, I have two data centers because I just built double.
Starting point is 03:04:31 Let's train an LLM. And then the more tactical reason is that LLMs are going to get stuffed everywhere in every enterprise. I've noticed. And sometimes I just accidentally wander into an LLM. Yeah, but not even from the consumer perspective.
Starting point is 03:04:45 Like think about within Facebook, they have to process payments from their advertisers and they might wanna run those through an LLM to say, are we being defrauded? Or there's a customer support that's happening or any little internal thing, even just like, there's customer support that's happening or any little internal thing, even just like, should we censor this comment for a user who's under 18 years old, right? Like that is an LLM that runs in the background. It's not consumer facing. Why would they have to pay open AI for
Starting point is 03:05:17 that? Why would they have to pay Google for that? No, this makes a lot of sense. Can I say one more thing? Please. I need to, for anyone who's watching, I have a lot of dear friends. Please never send me a reel. I never watch them. I know like someone's like, oh, they send you a reel. It's like, I'd rather not. So I would like to use your platform.
Starting point is 03:05:36 Carrier pigeon? Yeah. What's the best way to get in touch? No, I love them. Yeah, you send me a DM, whatever. I'm just not gonna watch your reel. But the DM of the reel. I'm gonna mail you a DVD of the best rules. Yeah want watch your real But I'm gonna mail you a DVD of the best. Yeah, that's fine I'm gonna mail you a DVD a blu-ray of just all the best
Starting point is 03:05:51 Well, well about taking it a step further vinyl and it's us describing reels to Jeff. That'd be great I love it. I would do that We do that all day if someone sends me a DMs me a real I'm like do we really have to imagine a bunch of colorful? marbles falling down the stairs endlessly. Or imagine Subway surfers in the background while Joe Rogan talks about weightlifting with Elon Musk. That's really high performance stuff,
Starting point is 03:06:17 but you'll hear it on vinyl for sure. Thank you, I appreciate it. Anyway, this was fantastic. Anytime, guys. Let's make this a regular thing. This is such a fun conversation. Anytime, anytime, I love chatting with y'all. Amazing. We're gonna just put a calendar hold on. Yeah, we'll throw you something. Anyway, this was fantastic Yeah, if you ever just if you ever if any part of you ever thinks I'm not excited to talk to John This is great he moved the market on our stream numbers. We're up at 10.8k today.
Starting point is 03:06:47 Good day on X. The live stream is popping. Google's up 2.8% today. Is that because Joe said, why is everybody bearish? He just had to ask that question, and the stock popped almost 3%. He's reading tea leaves. Hey, Chet GPT, take this transcript from Joe Weisenthal
Starting point is 03:07:06 and turn it into financial advice. Make it ultra opinionated. No, obviously no financial advice on this show, especially for my guests. Yeah, the question of what does Zuck get from Llama? We obviously did our Llama deep dive, but it's such a history and appreciation for open source and so many different platforms, right?
Starting point is 03:07:27 He just, it would be hard to take Meta seriously as a hyperscaler if they didn't have any type of AI play. They also get the benefit of learning from other people building on Llama, even if there's not some massive direct revenue benefit. And I think what Joe is really like heading on, which is correct, is that the LLM chat based chat bot UI paradigm is not a perfect fit for what Meta's products are right now. But as the UI paradigms mature, you can imagine just,
Starting point is 03:08:05 okay, we know that images are moving from diffusion to token based architectures. So you could imagine that maybe I don't want to constantly generate AI slop and throw that up on my story, but I could totally want to take a selfie and say, hey, just with natural language, can you make the sky clear? It's a little gray today. Can you just make it blue back there?
Starting point is 03:08:26 And it would just do that. Also, it's a hedge against as AI companions and just people develop relationships with effectively the models. That is a threat to Meta's core business of connecting regular people that have conversations in the app that bring people back to the app so they can serve more ads. Anyways, today was a very fun show.
Starting point is 03:08:51 We got to go take some photos. We had range from Eric Prince to Joe Weisenthal. We really covered everyone. I got some text messages. Someone said, great lineup today. I'll read this up. Great lineup today. Blackwater. Black up. Where is this? Great lineup today. Blackwater.
Starting point is 03:09:06 Blackwater for software engineers, cognition. Blackwater for Sam Altman's haters, open AI. Lots of Blackwater folks. The Blackwater of podcasting, Joe Wessenthal. Yeah, he really is. Or David Senra. I think David Senra is more Blackwater coded when it comes to how ruthlessly he drives.
Starting point is 03:09:22 Operational efficiency drives. He pods. Anyway, thank you for listening. This is fantastic. Switch your business to ramp.com. Check out Polymarket. Today we're talking about. Using ramp.
Starting point is 03:09:33 Ramp, ramp, ramp. I wanna get, I'm gonna get work on getting a Polymarket set up on PompSpack. Oh yeah. It does it actually. That'd be fun. Does it happen? When does it happen?
Starting point is 03:09:44 When does it go out? Like the IPO market that we've been having a lot of fun with and then as the rumors start circulating I'm gonna be we're gonna hit up all our boys all our group chats Hey, who's got a profitable financial services company that they want to take public? I want to put I want to highlight one timeline post before we get out of here Leonard Heim, he's coming on the show next week. Jordan from China Talk recommended him. He talks about chips and AI. And I love this because there's a screenshot that he's quote tweeting from,
Starting point is 03:10:14 I believe the Financial Times. It says, we still don't know how much energy AI consumes. Companies must give us the chance to understand the environmental impact of the tech we use. And he says, yes we do. It's 21 gigawatts. You count all the AI chips produced, factor in that they're running most of the time,
Starting point is 03:10:31 add some overhead and you got your answer. It's a lot and we'll only get more. But you know what? Probably worth it. And I loved it, like there's so many of these opinion pieces that are like, we could never know. We could never know. And he's like, no, you can just add it up.
Starting point is 03:10:43 It's pretty easy to understand how much energy it's producing. So I saw this post after I already invited him, but I'm super excited to talk to him next week because clearly, banger. Banger. Anyway. Because it takes myth.
Starting point is 03:10:55 Leave us five stars on Apple Podcasts, Spotify. There's been really explicit about this. Yes. If you like watching the show, our jobs are on the line. They will recast us Ben is making menace giving us a menacing look his his thumb is over the purchase button on Audi r8 and he can only do it if you leave us five stars if you don't leave us five stars we're never gonna get there help so thank you all right cheers
Starting point is 03:11:20 folks we'll talk to you see you tomorrow

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