TBPN Live - Nvidia Q3 Earnings, Travis Kalanick's New Startup, Google's Nano Banana Pro Reaction | Diet TBPN

Episode Date: November 21, 2025

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Invidia beat earnings and the job numbers came back very positive. We are back. 119,000 new jobs and Nvidia beat earnings. The revenue came in at $57 billion for the quarter, up 62% from this quarter last year. Fantastic result for Nvidia. Of course, that's why the stock's selling off and the market's melting down and Bitcoin's down 10%. That was my prediction after yesterday. It was one of your prediction.

But I was wrong on the timeline. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Pumped shortly and now everything's selling off. Very unclear where we go. I did think it was funny that we are in a world where demand for robots is surging and also demand for human labor appears to be surging. InVIDIA, you know, the chips that they make sell artificial intelligence. That should be replacing human labor and yet the job demand is surging as well.

And it's notable they said they have. visibility for a half a trillion dollars in revenue through 2026, which... I mean, it seems crazy, but... It's not enough anymore. But, I mean, they're making $57 billion a quarter. Just for the next quarter, guidance is at $65 billion. Analysts had predicted that revenue guidance would be $62 billion. So everything is trending up.

Jensen said, we've entered the virtuous cycle of artificial intelligence. AI is going everywhere, doing everything all at once. What a great quote. Tyler's very happy about Jensen. There's a new product from Travis Kalanick, the founder of Uber, of course. It's called Picnic. We discussed it on the show yesterday, and we got a reply from none other than Travis Callanick himself. Why don't I start with a little bit of context?

Please. He can add to it. So I wrote in the newsletter this morning, the subject of the newsletter was Daddy's Home. He's obviously back on the timeline with Picnic. Picnic is a new business under city storage systems. Okay. So you don't know the name City Storage. systems, but Cloud Kitchens is actually a subsidiary of city storage.

I thought Cloud Kitchens was the top. That's what I thought, no, but it's actually the opposite. City storage systems, great, great team if you want, kind of an under the radar, holding company to, you know, verticalize food delivery. Sure. Picnic is kind of a front facing platform focused on meal delivery. The offer sounds too good to be true. Meals delivered from 50 plus restaurants with no tipping and no fees. They also bundle orders, so a company We can order from 10 or so different restaurants, get it all ordered at the same time.

He's got a bunch of customers already, Wells Fargo, Live Nation, EY, KPMG, PWC, and a bunch more. And so we were talking yesterday about how, like, broken the tipping experiences. When you're tipping directly, it's a way to encourage great service by, like, tipping if you're checking into a hotel and you're tipping, you know, somebody on the way in, they're incentivized to make your stay great. same thing you know valet tipping on the way in they're going to park your car right up at the front so Travis said delivery app tipping isn't about feedback feedback mechanisms it's a tool for maximizing the price paid by consumers eaters are economically irrational with tip for every $1 in tip they economically behave as if it were 80 cents this is just a hypothetical figure but it's directionally true because you feel emotionally good about tipping, mentally, you give it less, it feels less painful to

part with those dollars. If there's $10 in taxes and $10 in tip, you'll be like, oh, I feel good about the $10 in tip. That feels like $8, and the taxes, that feels bad, right? And it happens on the other side. So couriers are also economically irrational with tip. For every $1 in tip, they economically behave. as if it were $1.20, again, directional. And so you feel good when you're tipped. And so you treat

those dollars as more valuable. And so this is a hack on the human psyche, which apps must implement and maximize or miss out on economic surplus that their competitor will use to defeat them. And so even if you have, your whole brand is built around our app doesn't tip, remember this happened with Uber, if your competitor is using tips, if they implement tips, they will just be making more money than you because of this economic inefficiency that arises from the nature of the human psyche. I read this as adding tipping is inevitable. Adding tipping is inevitable. We're not doing it right now, but eventually someone will come to the market, do it. We will have to in order to compete. Is that not the read here? So the difference here is that I think

that one picnic is like, is already counter positioned, right? So it's pricing thing. It's a flexibility standpoint. It's also counter positioning on like focusing on one key buyer. Obviously, you know, the door dashes, the Uber Eats have their kind of like corporate offerings. But I think like just creating a, creating a different and more transparent model makes a lot of sense. TK has been kind of like secretive about cloud kitchens, secretive about otter, which is like the toast or square competitor that he has. When I hear like no fees, no tips, like it just screams, like, there's been so many attempts at food delivery and just like new restaurant concepts that have been venture-backed.

And a lot of them haven't worked out, right, because it's just like becomes unsustainable. I think Travis is basically by focusing on a key customer type, trying to make it up with volume, and then having this like vertical approach, I believe that he's, somewhat of a masochist and that like going and trying to win in food delivery is just like the hardest arena is just like the most competitive space it's low margin all the way down I believe just given the domain expertise I believe that he's he has a real play here and a real strategy and I think that I think that already we were talking with um uh the person on our team that handles like food ordering he got on the phone with picnic yesterday and he was like

This offering is way better than what we're seeing with the other delivery apps and wants to switch to it immediately. So if TK can make the model sustainable, I think it'll be quite competitive. Yeah. I mean, you would imagine that vertical integration should allow true lower prices, like true cost competitiveness. That's like an age-old business adage. If you vertically integrate, you can undercut your competitors and just offer lower prices. Almost like, you know, buying Kirkland brand at Costco is typically like sort of, of like the canonical example of like heavy verticalization. I remember in the early days of Uber. Like, it was amazing because you didn't need to think about the tip.

And so that mental load wasn't there. There was the star rating system. And it felt like they're actually like the VCs might have been subsidizing it a little bit. But it felt affordable on the on the rider side. And on the driver side, it felt like people were getting paid pretty well. And everyone was sort of happy. But maybe the VCs weren't. But they wound up getting, you know, a stake in a $200 billion company.

So, you know, I think it all worked out for everyone involved. But it seems like Travis is reflecting on this idea that tipping was inevitable to come to the Uber ecosystem. Is tipping going to come to the Waymo ecosystem? Is tipping going to come to this picnic ecosystem, the picnic product eventually? Do you think Picnic will have tipping in 10 years? I just view this more as a corporate service in its current positioning than a consumer service. And when a consumer is buying food, if you're, you're ordering food delivery. It is like it is a luxury right like food delivery has been

extremely normalized but if you you know rewind to 40 years ago and ask like oh how often do you get food delivery most people will be like I never get food delivery I just go pick it up myself. It is a luxury but this is being positioned like as a corporate offering and I think that if Picnic can get just like deep relationships with a bunch of these different companies that have you know I listed off some of the logos before. if they can just become embedded in these companies and part of their workflows, I think they'll, it's possible to like make it up in volume. Truth bomb from TK. Tipping is a hack to maximize price. It's psychology. Consumers are willing to

pay more in tips than they are willing to pay in fees or menu price. So a $16 barrito plus a $4 tip feels far cheaper to people than a $20 burrito that has a no tip option. From a business standpoint, I don't, I don't know if it's exactly the same thing. I feel like businesses like want to have like more predictable costs not have that like variability and like okay sometimes the fees are like this sometimes the fees are like that I think this will be a better consumer experience a lot of companies you know will give like credits to their employees which is like you get $20 of credits every day and then whatever you're kind of like spending on top of that you have to eat and so I think consumers will could very likely like picnic more so we'll see

This was one of the original D2C evolutions that happened with a lot of like Shopify merchants. I remember looking at, I think it was like Kylie Cosmetics. There was a trend for a while that was like consumers want transparent pricing. Don't do all the crazy psychological hacks. So you'd be like, yeah, I'm just going to put, it's 30 bucks. And that's what it is. And it's free shipping. And that tax and shipping is included.

And it's just like what we say up front is feels really good. Feels really good to say that. And then you go to like the high performing. stores and all across the board, it would be like $9.99. And then you go in and there's like $6.42 added in taxes. And then you add shipping. And it's like a pop-up that says you have one minute to add this to your cart and just like keeping you on the real, reeling you in like a fish, adding,

adding fees, adding fees until you're like, okay, well now I'm like entered all my information and I'm ready to click the button. And so yeah, okay, you added two more bucks, whatever, I'll just deal with it. So these psychological hacks are just like somewhat What is TK's a drone strategy? What's his autonomous delivery strategy? Because he's vertically integrated at the kitchen level. He has the point of sale system.

He has the sort of ordering front end. You can interact directly with him. He's cutting out several of the middlemen. But is he going to be a logical partner for a zipline? Is he going to be a logical partner for Coco and Starship and these robotics companies that are delivering food? People aren't ready for how much better food tastes when it arrives 5x faster that's a hilarious take because like in fact I

have tasted food right when it's made like it's not it's not like an entirely novel thing but what he's pointing at here is that Zipline is is getting food delivered in four minutes as opposed to cars that take 20 minutes so hot food arrives hot which is certainly a benefit but it just does create more of like a, you know, benchmark to the actual restaurant. I'm trying to find if Travis is an investor in Zipline. The Google AI overview says, yes, Travis Kalanick is an investor at Uber. Gemini says, I could not find definitive evidence.

Of Ziplein? Okay. I mean, on the self-driving side, his original vision at Uber, it felt very much like he needed to own that technology. He wanted to be not just a buyer of it from a different company. I mean, right now, if you look at city storage systems, you have cloud kitchens, which is making the food. You have Otter, which is like the payments and ordering infrastructure. And then now you have Picnic, which is like the front end.

Any type of delivery method actually like fits into that system. I would imagine he'll either add a strategy, but potentially more likely he'll just integrate with a variety of drone delivery and then autonomous vehicle delivery and continue to use traditional. labor so nanobanana is remarkable look at this golden gate bridge image it generates the image and also all of the diagrams around it this is how tyler sees the world by the way sundar says you went bananas for nanobanana now meet nanobanana pro it's state of the art for image generation editing with more advanced world knowledge text rendering precision plus controls built on gemini three it's really good at complex infographics which is awesome uh much like how engineers see the world that's very funny

I can see that there. Here's one where someone took a map, a Google map screenshot, and just turned it into an RPG-style map, a San Francisco monster map. It really is that reasoning model. Like you can see, the Golden Gate Bridge is there, and what would be logical to have attacking the Golden Gate Bridge, a giant octopus. And then Alcatraz Island is there, and there's this sea monster next to it, and everything kind of like fit.

Nanoban nailed the burger test. It's the first model to truly do this perfectly. The prompt is remove the ingredients, leave just the top bun and the bottom bun in the exact same place and render the rest of the image. Here's my favorite use case so far. Take papers or really long articles and turn them into a detailed whiteboard photo. It's basically the greatest compression algorithm in human history. When we got Chachapiti, it was like, oh, wow, you can take bullet points, and you can expand it into an essay. And then you can take an essay and expand it down to bullet points.

And I imagine that people are going to be sending these, and then they're not going to be reading them, and they're going to be like, actually like... Okay, turn this diagram into an essay and then summarize it. And then summarize it. And Vindia saw its shadow, six more months of bull markets as high-yield hairy, although who knows the market is tanking still? The NASDAQ is down 2.1% now. And Bitcoin is down at $86,000. They're 5% today. Significant sell-off.

Let's check in on the sailor himself. Also down 5%. At least he's tracking the underlying asset. Meltem says Nvidia earnings call for 60 seconds. We have line of sight to half a trillion in revenue in 2026. The bubble hasn't even started yet. Let's go.

Michael Burry says every company listed below has suspicious revenue recognition. The actual chart with all the give and take deals would be unreadable. The future will regard this a picture of fraud, not a flywheel. True end damage is ridiculous. demand. True end demand is ridiculously small. Almost all customers are funded by their dealers.

If you can name OpenAI's auditor in one hour, you win some pride. What does he mean true end demand is ridiculously small? It's just not true. Like there are tons of companies that are paying for subscriptions for all sorts of AI products. I don't know. He's a desal with a crazy P-Dome. He's a D-Sel with a zero P-Dume, I guess. yes if you're looking at the amount of investment happening now yeah in comparison to the demand yeah and you don't believe that the products will get better at all yeah if you don't believe that it just flipped so much like there was a moment where it was like wow like demand for this new thing

went from zero to 10 billion dollars in just a few years this is remarkable yeah and then people were like let's invest a trillion dollars in that and it's like okay well at that price it's like it's actually kind of crazy I don't know it's a lot to deal with yeah but if you think think about any industry on earth, do we think every industry on earth will be using 50 to 100 times more tokens within five years, 10 years? You don't even have to be that much of a... No. Of a permable. Of a permable to believe that. In fact, it's like hard to argue. Tyler's permabulling. Of course that is your contention. You're a first-year AI skeptic. You just finished reading Andrew Ross Sorkin's 1929, and now you think you're reliving the roaring 20s with

GPUs. You will cling to that until next month when you hear Jim Chanos talk about unsustainable CapEx, and then you will start parroting that the entire AI ecosystem is about to collapse under the weight of its own spending. That will last until someone posts a CoreWeave CDS chart, and you'll repeat that too without realizing that it was just dealers hedging credit portfolios, not some cosmic warning sign. Then you'll probably start lecturing people about global crossing because you heard someone say 1999 fiber bubble and it made you feel informed.

Meanwhile, Nvidia just printed one of the biggest sequential growth quarters the sector has ever seen and guided higher again. The workloads are real. The demand is real

and the CAFex is already contractually locked. None of that came from a cash crash narrative paperback or a chaino soundbite. But sure, keep borrowing other people's takes and pretending they're your own.

One day, you might look at the actual numbers and realize This is not a bubble. It is the early stage of the largest infrastructure build out in decades. Very cool. So this is kind of a combination of the R2D2 form of a factor with a humanoid. Yes.

Look at that. Picking up two wine glasses is insane. I love the way it just bounces around. So this is sped up, presumably. Yes. I think it's at like a 10x speed. Something about the lighting here leaks it looks CGI to me. I know it's not, but.

It looks CGI-ish. I'm fascinated. So many questions. Says it's in autonomous mode. Sunday has speed up. Sunday has motion. I think that the design here is fantastic. I will have to debate it and you have to tell me what you think.

But definitely beating the like creepy, uncanny valley, in my opinion, doesn't feel like, oh, that thing is about to pick up a knife. at least to me, I'm pretty, I'm pretty into this design. And I think the internet was as well since it got over a million views and over 3,000 likes. And Shulte Douglas over at Anthropics says, this is insanely, insanely impressive. I agree, it is. I'm excited to ask Tony how much they had to spend to get to this point. That would be interesting. Because I think it, I'm assuming it will be quite a bit less than many of the other players.

that are kind of competing here. The little telescoping pole is very cool. Taylor says it's the hat non-threatening lid. I agree. Just throw a cool hat. The hat looks. Yeah. So Scott,

I think the hat does look kind of dumb, but that's like kind of okay. I'd rather it look dumb than scary or menacing or weird, you know, like. Think about how scary like some of these humanoid robots would be to a one-year-old. Like, Wally looks kind of. D-2D-2 looks kind of dumb, but it's still like a friendly, you know, you don't want it to be overpowering. Like the optimist or figure would be like traumatizing to a one-year-old.

Yeah, yeah, for sure. SAM 3, video tracking is so good yesterday. Collect data, train custom object detector, use tracker to estimate object motion, days. Now track anything with a text prompt in seconds. That's meta. Whoa. Oh, this is segment anything. Yeah, segment anything.

Oh, okay, okay, okay, got it. That's very exciting. Very cool. You can track all of our gong hits, potentially, for velocity. And understand velocity relative to the audio volume. And you can understand how the production team is doing their job to lower the levels for you. Grock says Elon is more fit than LeBron and would win a fight against Mike Tyson. Fact check, true. You're absolutely right.

I'm going to ask Grock if this is true. I wonder how much of this is like in the pre-prompt or just in the X data system. set, you know, uh, Elon's obviously, like there's just, there's just an incredible amount of Elon fans in the X ecosystem still, since a lot of people that weren't Elon fans left. Even the Tesla Bulls don't glaze to this level usually. Like I, so I don't know where this would come from. This must have been in the pre-prompt or something. Many people are doing this. I mean, you went in SORA and you said, depict me as a bodybuilder. Yes, that's true. And then somebody tried to hack it to give you small legs.

They did successfully prompt engineer me. They got you good. They did get me. Preciant New Yorker cartoon that saw prediction markets coming more than half a century in advance. Wow. June 27, 927. If you can't see this, it's the arrivals at an airport, and there's flights that are arriving from Chicago, Detroit, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh. They depart at 8 a.m. They arrive at 10.20 a.m.

And then there's odds listed there because, of course, you'll want to. bet on when the plane lands. Now you can, maybe, you're close to being able to with the prediction markets on their relentless march to take over the world. We have to talk about group chats in Chachapit. We mentioned this earlier. It's official. They're rolling out globally. There was a successful pilot with early testers. Group chats will now be available for all logged in users on chatchipt free go plus and propans. I didn't know there's a Chachapitgo plan. I think that That was the India plan. Okay, that's interesting.

And then also, I mean, it just says, of course it's rolling out to everyone because this one doesn't set the GPUs on fire. This is good old fashioned stuff the text in the database and reduce churn in your product. So it makes a ton of sense. Very, you know, we'll have to test this out and see if it's actually that useful. Yeah, I think this, I mean, this is the kind of thing that can help open AI build more of a moat outside of a brand and just general distribution mode. ChatGPT is turning into a social app. Sam pulled it off before Zuck could make the meta-AI app good enough to compete with ChatGPT. It says Uchin Jin. Axen Grock could have a real chance to do it too, but it's rough watching DMs and chat keep breaking. CNBC said meta plans to release a standalone meta AI app in an effort to compete with OpenAI's

ChatGPT, and Sam Allman said, okay, fine, maybe we'll do a social app. And he did. He did SORA, and now he's adding social features to Chatchapit Core. Did you see this that we don't understand how ice is, why ice is slippery? I don't know if this is fully confirmed at this point, but Massimo, Rainmaker, 1973, shares new research, misspelled there. New research. Research shows ice is slippery because of electrical charges, not pressure and friction. For almost 200 years, the prevailing explanation for ice's slipperiness was that friction or pressure from a skate, boot, or tire melted a microscopic film of water on the surface, creating a lubricating layer. A new study from Saurland University has overturned that longstanding idea. Boris Power here says, who's the head of applied research at OpenAI, says, wow, this is one of the bigger,

firm beliefs I held that got overturned. I really, this is the one of my strongest beliefs. I knew that the world is round. The sun rises in the east and it sets in the west and I know that the reason ice is slippery is when you step

on it, it's a layer of water. But it is a good point. If it's actually about electrical charges then it begs the question, which he's asking, I wonder how long until we get non-slip shoes for ice. Ice is brilliant. humbling, you know, you think you're walking, you're confident, you know, you're like,

I'm handling this ice, and then you just suddenly it feels like you've got a banana under your foot. One of my friends was worried about getting canceled because the first tweet he ever posted, like decades ago when he first got on Twitter was, I just slipped on some iced, hashtag F-I-I-E, like F-U-C-K-I-C-E. And he was like, am I being like rude or Could I delete that post? Twelve lessons from our interview on Dialectic, his podcast. I don't think we'd ever written down a lot of these ideas. I think we've certainly talked.

We were talking about the need for principles and the need for some sort of, you know, culture. But that was more like operating principles within the company. Yeah. Some of these are relevant. Yeah, this is more about the style of content. Never forget, Satchin-Dadell in 1993. as a Microsoft technical marketing manager showing how Excel works.

We can play this clip. As you can see, the most important architectural requirement for this piece is to be able to integrate data which exists on a host or a mainframe right now into Excel. Excel being our front-end tool and the AS400 in our case being the data repository. So what I'm going to do now is exit out of this environment and show you how we can better integrate this data into Excel and I'll go ahead and call in questions now he's doing a live stream basically it's on TV at this point what it did was it talked to the MS query went ahead and talked to the DRDA driver and got went and connected to the mainframe brought down the relevant data and populated my sheet here

with the relevant data going to using Windows NTS and a server connecting to the database It sounds like agentic AI. Sounds like a workflow that's getting automated for numbers. This guy's been automating workflows since day one. Now he says he has less hair. But the same love for Excel. And he's posted a photo, making sheet happen since 1985. He's looking great.

He's on top of the world. We appreciate you all, and we will see you tomorrow. Love you. Goodbye. Cheers. Thank you.