TBPN Live - SpaceX IPO Gigastream

Episode Date: June 12, 2026

(00:34) - SpaceX IPO Coverage (21:25) - Vindication for Elon Musk (35:31) - SpaceX IPO 𝕏 Timeline Reactions (01:03:38) - Oasis Faces LMNT Lawsuit (01:20:16) - 𝕏 Timeline Reactions T...BPN is made possible by:Ramp - https://ramp.comPublic - https://public.comCisco - https://www.cisco.comConsole - https://www.console.comCrowdStrike - https://www.crowdstrike.comFigma - https://www.figma.comMongoDB - https://www.mongodb.comNYSE - https://www.nyse.comRailway - https://railway.comShopify - https://www.shopify.comCodex - http://openAI.com/codexFollow TBPN: https://TBPN.comhttps://x.com/tbpnhttps://open.spotify.com/show/2L6WMqY3GUPCGBD0dX6p00?si=674252d53acf4231https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/tbpn/id1772360235https://www.youtube.com/@TBPNLive

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Starting point is 00:00:00 You're watching TVPN. Today's Friday, June 12, 2026. We're live from the TVPN Ultron. The Temple of Technology, the Fortune Finance, the capital of capital. Let's tell you about ramp.com. Time is money, save both. These are used corporate cards, bill pay, accounting, and a whole lot more, all in one place. It's a massive day today.
Starting point is 00:00:20 SpaceX IPO, priced at $135 a share, opened at $150. Where is it right now? Jordi, are you on it? Do you have the price? Oh, the price is up there. Okay, now we're getting the endless mirror. You can call it the price. But we'll be tracking throughout the show, so stay tuned.
Starting point is 00:00:38 It's $2.28 trillion company now. $172. $172 a share. I had Tyler and Jordy submit confidential estimates for how, where the stock would be at noon effectively. Jordy went with a market cap-based estimate. Tyler went with a share price estimate, I think. Which is what I was told. I went with a percentage-based estimate.
Starting point is 00:01:05 You can translate between all of them. We'll get there. But the stock's doing well. The IPO is successful, I would say. There's been a bunch of chatter back and forth. Bull cases, bear cases. But overall, it's hard not to look at this as a success. The, you know, Bill Gurley doesn't want a crazy pop on day one,
Starting point is 00:01:25 doesn't want it to go up 100% if we're in 10, 20, 30% range for something this big, that just feels like everything came together properly. And so, so far, looks really, really good. Healthy. So at noon, we will check in with our predictions and see who won. There is an exciting prize for the winner, by the way. It will be revealed at noon as well. There's been a ton of coverage.
Starting point is 00:01:51 We can pull up this video from Gwen. Shotwell, who is the president of SpaceX and has been on an absolute tear building the company for Basically its entire existence. What? What are you laughing at? I didn't know what your prediction was Did you see what it is? Yeah, Nick just shared it. He did This guy over here. This is a funny guy over here. Be revealed funny guy over here. This is why you trade I was trying to this is why you trade bits not stocks I was trying to pull an estimate out of you and you were like asking me 20 25 clarifying questions. The purpose is content to have a conversation. Just pick a number. And you're like,
Starting point is 00:02:32 oh, well, does it count where it opens or what, where it opens after? Like, it was just to market cap, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. I was just like, just brought a number. We got to have a discussion about this. There's nothing back. The price per share. Sure. Everything's on the line, John. Everything is on the, I was laughing about how you wouldn't take a side on the, on the dog walker versus the dentist. I was like, dog walker dentist, blind, who are you going? And you were like, I can't possibly. I couldn't possibly, in the name of good television, just pick a random side for the purpose. Dog Walker or dentist.
Starting point is 00:03:06 Yeah. Beach debate. The beach debate. We never got your answer. And you're like, I need more information. I can't possibly make a call. It's such a tough one because I don't. No, no, no.
Starting point is 00:03:15 Here's why it's tough for me. Here's why it's tough for me, John. Okay, explain. I have never in my life hired or worked with a dog walker. Yeah. My family growing up, we had a couple dogs.
Starting point is 00:03:26 Yeah. We walked our dog. Yeah. Like, we never... You've been to the dentist. I was the dog walker. Yeah. You've been to...
Starting point is 00:03:32 You're not your own dentist, though. Dentists? I've never had a cavity. Every time I go in there, I guess I'm blessed. Okay. Every time I go in there, they're like, looks good, boss.
Starting point is 00:03:42 Okay. And I just head out. So equally useless. Equally useless profession. So flip the coin, it's TV. Useless profession. No, I just don't have any... The noble dead.
Starting point is 00:03:53 I need, I need, like, slightly more. Why don't you fall back to, like, the economic power of the dentist industry versus the dog-working industry? Like, if you had to pick a job, if you were trying to get a bag. I respect dog-walk. Oh, you would go dog-walker. Oh, you would be an elite dog-walker over a mid-dentist? Here's, here's, like, here's kind of my thinking. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Starting point is 00:04:11 There's a guy in my neighborhood who is walking dogs in my neighborhood all day long. Yeah. I'm like, who, like, a lot of people in my neighborhood don't work. They're just home all day. Like, why aren't you walking your dog? Okay. But I think it's amazing that this guy is just like... He's printing.
Starting point is 00:04:28 Clearly printing all day long, just going for walks, hanging out. He's listening to music, hanging out. It seems great. Great job. He picks up the... Sounds like you're going dog walker. He picks up the poop when they poop on my lawn.
Starting point is 00:04:39 Yeah, yeah, yeah. I appreciate it. We have a, you know... Good relationship. I maybe wish you wouldn't do that, but... Okay. We have a fine relationship. But then dentists, I could get really excited about a dentist if they were...
Starting point is 00:04:50 You're still torn. You're still not taking a side. Private equity-backed roll-up. Okay, okay. Well, that's an option. The dentist was kind of a figurehead for some PE firm to be able to deploy huge amounts of capital to rolling up family practices and raising prices. What if you're a dog walker, you earn so much money. You start being able to buy small dentist shops rolling them up.
Starting point is 00:05:18 You flip from dog walking into dentistry. Well, that would be the way, we don't know much about this story. Yeah. But we do know that there's a conflict. Yeah. But that would be the way for the dog walker to strike back is by the dentist. So final, final answer. Come in.
Starting point is 00:05:33 What side are you picking? If the dog walker will commit to. No conditionals. Why can't I have conditions? Why can't I have conditions? You can't have conditions because that's the rules that I'm laying down. You got to pick one. Dog walker or dentist.
Starting point is 00:05:48 Whose side are you on? Dog walker. We go. Finally, we got some. But I'm going to put, but I'm going, I'm going to put a heavy, I'm going to put a real, a serious amount of pressure. I'll just take dentists. I'm going to put.
Starting point is 00:06:00 I'm going to put a serious amount of pressure on the dog walker. Okay. And I will provide financial backing to acquire the dentist's practice and shut it down. Okay. Because I know they have, I know they have some conflict. Yeah. And it sounds like it's over the beach. It's really not that personal.
Starting point is 00:06:17 Yeah. Yeah. And access to the beach. Yeah. But I think there's an opportunity to make. it personal. And I think at this point, if they're getting written up in the journal about this conflict, I think they should make it person. They got to figure out how to make it personal. And I think buying the dentist's practice and then shutting it down or as a high high no, no, you can raise an
Starting point is 00:06:40 SPV. Oh, okay. And I would be willing to, you know, I need to meet the guy first, but I'm at least moderately interested in providing at least some of the backing. Okay. Okay. Or the I got you. Well, let me tell you about CrowdStrike. Your business is AI. Their business is securing it. CrowdStrike secures AI and stops breaches. Let's play this clip from Gwen Shotwell, standing at the NASDAQ on the day of the space site's IPO. I think we might be able to play it on the big board. Stock is doing well, holding steady at $2.27 trillion. Whatever production team wants to do, we will do as long as the folks at home can see Gwen Shotwell giving her speech to... I gotta say Tyler is looking like a young Kimball musk right now. I am so excited to be here. Today we make history again.
Starting point is 00:07:31 We have a history of making history. So I want everyone to know that we did open this morning in a rather exciting way. We launched. Falcon 9 launched Starlink satellites to orbit. We have a history. So what company would do? such a thing on the day that they open in the public market. SpaceX would.
Starting point is 00:07:57 I am so proud of this team. Today we're 24, not today. This year we are 24 years old. Elon founded this company in 2002 initially to build rockets and spaceships that will take humans to Mars, the moon, and even beyond. We've not quite gotten to Mars. We're almost at the moon.
Starting point is 00:08:21 But let's just quickly run through the amazing things that you guys have accomplished. 2008, six weeks after a failure of Flight 3 Falcon 1, we got the first liquid-fueled rocket to orbit from a private company. Yay. Yay. By the way, I should have prefaced this with everyone said we could never get to orbit. Check.
Starting point is 00:08:46 But it was a little rocket. Then it's everyone said, well, you can't get a real rocket to orbit. Two years later, we got a real rocket to orbit, Falcon Oh, well, you'll never get to the space station, because that's what we really want to do, right? We want to take humans outside the bounds of Earth, but you'll never get astronauts to the space station, check. We did that too, doubters, right? Oh, you'll never fly Falcon 9 enough.
Starting point is 00:09:11 You'll never get to production. 165 launches last year, check. You'll never build a rocket large enough to take humans to the moon and Mars. We build one, we've flown it, and this year, I believe we'll get to orbit with that vehicle, and we'll recover the second stage. We've already recovered the first stage and reflone it. So good on you all for that, too. With the merger, the acquisition of XAI, we now, as a group,
Starting point is 00:09:52 on the largest coherent gigawatt class compute on the planet, which will help us truth-seek and understand the universe. So congratulations to all of us for that. So we're about 22,000 strong. I'm super proud that over half of us actually bought additional stock in this opening, totaling almost a billion dollars. So thank you for that too. But really the thank you's go to all of you for hanging in there,
Starting point is 00:10:31 for keeping a straight spine as the doubters doubt, to achieve historic things sometimes every day. multiple times a week. Thank you all of you for doing this. And I hope today is a day that you feel great about and that you're celebrating. Take a moment. Now the Falcon Recovery Team can't take a moment today. But everybody else can. And I hope Falcon Recovery Team could take a moment a little bit later. Yeah. And also thank you to the families, the partners, the plus ones, the children, the brothers, the sisters, the parents that have lived through long nights, that have seen launch failures, that have have seen AI compute go down. Yeah! That have seen kind of the trials and tribulations of this incredibly difficult business. Thank you so much for hanging in there.
Starting point is 00:11:19 I know I can't do this without my incredible partner. Can we get a standing O? In all seriousness. Congratulations to the SpaceX team. It is like truly one of the most remarkable stories in the history of capitalism, in the history of America. started in a little town called El Segundo. And Glenn shot well, one of the...
Starting point is 00:11:49 Sorry, sorry, sorry. Gwen? One of the most impressive executives of the modern era. Crazy. And we all should have known, just due to the nominative determinism. Yeah. If you're going to build a rocket company,
Starting point is 00:12:07 hire somebody to run the company. company with a last name shot well because she has shot quite well. Yeah, she worked at Chrysler and then began working at Elster. People like to say like, oh, non-traditional background. Somewhat. Chrysler. Yeah, I mean. Not exactly like a target. Yeah, well, she worked at the aerospace corporation, did technical work on military space research and development contracts. Early projects She worked on with STS 39. During a 10-year, 10-year, she worked on thermal analysis, worked both in space systems, engineering, and project management positions.
Starting point is 00:12:46 She left the aerospace corporation in 1998 to become director of the Space Systems Division at Microcosm Inc, a small rocket company in El Segundo. There, she was on the executive committee and responsible for business development. In 2002, she joined SpaceX, and she reflected on that later. She said, when I was considering joining SpaceX back in 2002, I was struggling with the decision and drawing it out for weeks. It's crazy. Leaving Elon on red for weeks seems extremely risky.
Starting point is 00:13:15 It feels like every decision he makes now is like go, no, go today, get back to me right now. Back then, obviously, SpaceX was very young, less leverage, less energy, less momentum. So these decisions would be drawn out. She said it seemed so risky for me personally to join this little startup in an industry where none had ever succeeded. I think she was starting a family around that time. And so it was risky from a career perspective. She said at the time, I was a part-time single mother, yeah. And this was just too far out of my comfort zone.
Starting point is 00:13:50 She was used to bigger corporations, more established companies. She's going to this small startup that has, you know, at that time, it's like a guy who made money on the internet now wants to do rocketry. What's the chance that works? It sounds crazy. it was at the time. She says, I was driving on the freeway here in LA when it finally hit me. I was being a total idiot. Who cares if I tried this job and either I failed or the company failed? What I recognized at that moment was that it was the trying part that was the most important. Try that risky thing. Be a part of something exciting. What a fantastic run.
Starting point is 00:14:30 And I'm not sure if she coined the term residual capability, but that's a big phrase that she's started using around the time, Starlink started working, just this idea that they would go and build ahead of demand almost. So SpaceX built basically more launch capacity than there was demand for, but then because there was space on every SpaceX rocket and they were able to build them so efficiently, so affordably, they were able to put up a massive constellation of internet-connected satellites, Starlink's, and develop another huge business on top of it. And so this idea of building, building, building, and then finding the different opportunities. For a while, SpaceX point-to-point was the big residual capability unlock that was coming in a few
Starting point is 00:15:20 years. The idea that you'd get on a spaceship, a starship, in New York, and you'd be in Tokyo in 30 minutes because you would have gone all the way to space and back, and it would land. I think that's still part of the plan, but obviously took a backseat in the S-1, took a backseat in the marketing materials for the company, but something that is still possible if you wind up delivering incredible safety and performance and cost reductions to the rocket launches, why not hop on a rocket to get across the world in 30 minutes? Sounds pretty cool and probably oddly easier to approve than hypersonic planes, since those have been stuck in regulatory approvals for years and decades and never really worked out. The Walser Journal is also reflecting on Gwen Shotwell. They say 19 things to
Starting point is 00:16:12 know about SpaceX president. She's a diplomat. She's seen as a steady hand engendering trust in the company from those who have been unsettled by Musk's actions. You're worried about his politics. You're worried about his other companies. Well, Shotwell has you covered with a very steady hand on the tiller at a very large company with 22,000 employees, as she mentioned. She's a billionaire After the IPO, Shotwell's net worth will be well north of $1 billion. She owns about 12.6 million shares. She translates Musk's lofty ideas. That part is a little bit crazy.
Starting point is 00:16:49 Which one? To me? Which one? So at the current price, she is closer to being worth like $2 billion. Okay. But still. To be that early and that critical and not wind up with a 5% stake or 1% speed? Not even, not, yeah, like something more like a 1% stake.
Starting point is 00:17:06 A lot of dilution, you know, big, big company. A lot of dilution, but. A lot of secondary. She might have been selling it every second. Selling. Yeah, we actually started out with it. He's like, yeah, I'm really bullish. We gave her 40%.
Starting point is 00:17:21 I'm really, I've never been more bullish. But you did sell 95% in the latest tender. Yeah, that is good because, I mean, Elon's hitting one T and she's just hitting 1B. Well, yeah. Yeah. Shotwell was paid $86 million last year, mostly in the form of stock options. She's one of eight board members at SpaceX. She's 62 and has worked with Musk for two decades.
Starting point is 00:17:43 She has a specific ritual for launch days. Because she was in Scotland the first time the company successfully got a rocket into orbit, she now writes Scotland on two sticky notes and places each inside her shoes to be in Scotland for every launch. She said it at a 2020... Scotland mindset. That's pretty elite. I like, is, what's that called? Where you're superstitious.
Starting point is 00:18:13 Superstitions. Rare, potentially underrated? What do you think? Do you have any superstitions? I mean, it's in the word, super. Yeah. Superpower. Superstition.
Starting point is 00:18:23 That's another one. Anyway. Gigast. Whether you're long, whether you're short, SpaceX, express yourself on public. Investing for those to take it seriously stocks, options, bonds, crypto, treasuries, and more with great customer service. What's your take on superstition? Do you have any? Doesn't sound like it? I think it's quite distracting Distracting to have a superstition
Starting point is 00:18:48 Yeah, kind of like could it could end up being a pretty big waste of time so I avoid them So you feel like unless you go through your whole ritual of eliminating all distractions things aren't gonna go well So you're superstitious about letting distractions creep into your workflow. I understand that. Yeah, yeah, yeah. So maybe I am. Maybe I am. Yeah. If I have a single distraction, everything will fail. She's been a staunch defender of Musk's, she worked to prevent business fallout during all the political turmoil. She worked with NASA officials and assured them that tensions would pass. She doesn't love social media. I like his in-person self better than his Twitter self. In fact, they feel like two different
Starting point is 00:19:29 people many of the times. She has a much different social media presence than her boss posting sparingly exclusively about SpaceX. She's focused. She was raised outside of Chicago. As a teenager, she decided she would become an engineer. Wait, you can imagine, like, she's reading X. She's like crying emojis, quoting six more posts, crying emojis. He's never crying at the office. He never does that. He's like two different people. This feels like, I feel like I don't know this guy. He's always crying. Yeah. Well, when she first joined SpaceX, she was VP of business development, so not in the, in like a co-founder, chief executive type role on day one. And so that probably explains a little bit of the equity position and how that developed over time.
Starting point is 00:20:16 But she was promoted to SpaceX's president and chief operating officer in 2008, the same year the company won a critical $1.6 billion NASA cargo transport deal. So I looked up, she was SpaceX's 7th.3. employee. Wow. That's pretty early. She'd be disappointed if SpaceX didn't have a settlement on the moon and wasn't building a manufacturing facility on the moon within 10 years. She showed time. She lives on a 1,000-acre ranch close to a SpaceX facility in Texas. She married a fellow SpaceX engineer and has two children. She put a Starlink mini terminal on top of her car to speak with Musk on her 40-minute commute without the call dropping. Interesting. Jimmy Sani also went back in time and told a story in the Wall Street Journal about one of the early days in the SpaceX journey.
Starting point is 00:21:08 Vindication for young Elon Musk, he wrote. In 2004, he told the Senate that open competition would transform the industry. First, before we get into this, let me tell you about Railway. Railway is the all-on-one intelligence to deploy web apps, servers databases, and more, while Railway automatically takes care of scaling, monitoring, and security. So this was an interesting story. And I wonder if we could find the actual video, like on C-SPAN. I don't know if it's out there.
Starting point is 00:21:33 But in 2004, the Senate held a subcommittee meeting, gather on all the subcommittee gathers on Capitol Hill to ask a question that now sounds quaint. Could America still reach space without the space shuttle? Of course, we do it like every couple days, thanks to SpaceX. The shuttle was grounded. 14 astronauts had died in two disasters, and the hearing room was thick with anxiety of a nation that feared it had lost. a step. Senator Bill Nelson, who had flown on the shuttle, sort of the Jared Isaacman of his era,
Starting point is 00:22:06 warned that without it, the country might spend years relying on Russian rockets. Nobody disagreed. Witnesses came in two panels. First, you got the NASA team defending the program through William Reddy, its associate administration for, administrator for spaceflight, accompanied by a retired admiral. After NASA spoke, industry did. They got a vice president from ATK. another from Lockheed Martin, a director from the aerospace group. Are you looking for a candle, a nuke one way or another? This is brutal for my prediction. This is brutal.
Starting point is 00:22:39 I'm feeling pretty good. But it's also brutal for anyone that wants drama on the chart because you're not getting it today. It's very stable. I think this is a very well-managed project from start to finish. And then now it's just like a trillion-dollar company, so it's hard for it to move super... I don't know. I just think that if you were expecting 10% swings up and down. That's something fair count is pretty small though, right?
Starting point is 00:23:05 Like at least that they're being traded. Sure. Sure. Very, very small. So the last person on the industry panel, you got Lockheed, ATK, Aerospace Corp. It's Elon Musk. AP in the chat. Wait for dip.
Starting point is 00:23:19 Five dollars. Can you imagine? It just nukes down to $5. So on the second panel. the industry panel, you got heavy hitters from Lockheed other industry folks, you got a 32-year-old man who had founded a rocket company two years earlier, and he'd yet to launch anything. It was Elon Musk. He had a more immediate complaint. NASA had just awarded a rival a quarter of a billion dollar contract without open competition, and his company had protested. So everyone's there to debate,
Starting point is 00:23:51 like, okay, can NASA get to space without the shuttle? And he's there being like, what about my contract? He shows up to this thing to testify, and they keep having to try and keep them on track. It's a very interesting way to, like, get his word in edgewise. So the senators thought the matter was off limits. Like, this hearing isn't about that, Elon. It's not about your contract. It was under government review already, and they kept having to steer him back to the day's subject, specifically heavy lift, the blunt problem of getting big things off the planet.
Starting point is 00:24:24 Certainly, he said, although it's worth correcting. I think Mr. Reddy misspoke when he said it was. competitive. It was in fact not competitive. The chairman tried again. Let's stay to heavy lift capacity issues, Elon. Stay on message. And Elon says absolutely. But his, his correction was safely on the record. He said something the panel wasn't ready to hear. The past few decades Elon Musk told them had been a dark age for human space flight. One costly government program after another failed to reach the pad. The public's drift from space. He argued wasn't the apathy of a tired people, but the disappointment of a hopeful one. It sounded in 2004 like a man with a grievance
Starting point is 00:25:04 and a half-built rocket. He was dismissed. He had made the same case the summer before. In one of his first Capitol Hill appearances, at a 2003 hearing on commercial spaceflight, there was a borrowed concept from the economist Joseph Schumptor, a creative destruction. The industry had lost it, not one successful new entrant in four decades. Space, Mr. Musk's, must, pointed out, had barely improved since Apollo, while every other technology from computing in the internet to intercontinental flight had been transformed by newcomers in open competition, restore that forcing function, he said, and space would change no less dramatically. The government need only be a customer, not a competitor. He could be glib. Every launch from Vanderbberg Air Force base, he said, was required by law
Starting point is 00:25:49 to be studied for its effect on the local seals at $10,000 a flight, even as that population had been climbing by nearly 13% in a single year. He says the seals are doing fine. Let me launch. With that population growth rate, Mr. Musk observed, it seems clear that if anything, the Vandenberg launch activity serves as an aphrodisiac. Dropping lines, dropping zingers on Capitol Hill.
Starting point is 00:26:16 People laughed. It was laughter you gave a clever outsider. But we can grade that clever outsider's argument now, because more than 20 years have passed and the record is in. The fear that haunted that 2004 hearing, dependence on Moscow, was not ended by the shuttle, but by Mr. Musk's company. In 2002, a SpaceX capsule carried two astronauts
Starting point is 00:26:35 to the space station from American soil. 2020. Closing a nine-year gap in which the United States paid Russia as much as $90 million a seat to hitch a ride. The semi-reusable rocket, Mr. Musk described to skeptical senators, became a fleet of boosters that land themselves and fly again. Today, SpaceX launches more than half the world's payloads. On Friday, it goes public in what is expected to be the largest IPO in history.
Starting point is 00:27:01 What are you laughing at, Jordy Hayes? I'm laughing at the comments on this post we made earlier. Oh, what would we say? Breaking the Pride of France, Mistral AI. It's exploring a raise of $3 billion at a $20 billion euro valuation. Are you getting in trouble? such a bone to pick with France. You're always taking shots at France. What did France do to you? I love France. This is beautiful. I genuinely, it's one of my favorite countries in the entire world.
Starting point is 00:27:34 I love it. But people are having fun, poking fun at France. But I just think, I'm kind of laughing at my own bit, a little bit. Because the car just says France, right? It says French. French. French. Let's put it up. We will. Well, the Financial Times has every possible take on SpaceX today. Scroll down. How's it doing? Good times. Stuart Kirk says SpaceX is cheap on a price to cosmos ratio.
Starting point is 00:28:13 Terrestrial evaluations don't apply when it comes to Elon. Last June, he wrote a column with the headline, an entry-level guide to valuing stocks. He also provided a link to a simple valuation tool that even my children's new hamster could use. What? How can a hamster use this? Interesting. I guess he's joking around. That's a weird line to throw in.
Starting point is 00:28:32 But discounted cash flow models require that cash moves in and out of a business to be net positive in order to calculate what a company is worth. Unless you want a negative number for some reason, like in divorce court, hence a few years after I became a portfolio manager in the mid-90s, equity analysts trying to flog.com stocks, began using price to sales ratios. When those look too silly, they invented price to clicks or price to eyeballs. And you know how that ended. No wonder investors still prefer cash flow-based valuation methodologies over anything else. That said, there are legitimate reasons to employ other metrics, including price to sales ratios. The latter are handy as a sense check when profits are temporarily depressed, distorted or cyclical,
Starting point is 00:29:15 provided that the revenues are real and measurable. If a price to earnings ratio appears odd, comparing price to sales ratios within an industry can be reassuring. Moreover, plenty of firms operated a loss, and thus using earnings multiples doesn't work, period. This can go on for years due to a heavy investment in business. Amazon was founded in 1994 and didn't make a profit until 2003, and a lot of people are taking a victory lap today over Aswat the Modran, the NYU finance professor, who I have a ton of respect for, but he was very skeptical about the Tesla IP.
Starting point is 00:29:47 when that went out. And everyone reasonable in the finance world was saying, well, the valuation is disconnected from the fundamentals compared to any other car company. Compared to any other company, doesn't make sense. But of course, the revenues did grow. The earnings did materialize.
Starting point is 00:30:03 They did wind up making money, although the stock is still very highly valued because Elon's pitch is a very large vision. Elon companies can stay disconnected from the fundamentals longer than you can stay solvent. And that's what Stewart, Kirk is arguing in the financial times. He says, terrestrial valuations don't apply when it comes to Elon.
Starting point is 00:30:23 And that is something that I think a lot of people have internalized. Trust the plan. Yes. So trust the plan. Enter SpaceX on 95 times. 95 times revenue, I believe? No, I haven't forgotten the decimal point where you're going here. My prediction is cooked.
Starting point is 00:30:40 It's gone for you. It was looking so good an hour ago. Too bad. But let me tell you about MongoD. What's the only thing faster than the AI market? Your business on MongoDB. Don't just build AI. Own the data platform that powers it.
Starting point is 00:30:56 I seriously couldn't believe it when I first divided the target valuation of $1.8 trillion by the last 12 months of revenues. I laughed so hard the wine I was drinking shot from my nose. This is the most financial time article I've ever read. But he's not saying, he's not saying, I almost, I almost, I almost, I almost, I almost spit up. But no, that's different. So a spit take is one thing.
Starting point is 00:31:21 You spit out of your coffee. What is that? He says he was drinking wine and it came out of his nose. That's brutal. Like, that's very rare. You've got to be so drunk for that to happen.
Starting point is 00:31:32 That sounds like... You have to be really drunk to have the alcohol come out of your nose and not just spit it up or throw up. I feel like the tear of like bad things that can happen to you when you're drinking too much. I laughed so hard I threw up.
Starting point is 00:31:43 Well, no. I don't know. I'm maybe drunk. I'm drinking a lot. I laugh so hard. The wine I was drinking shot from my nose. Then I laughed some more. This guy is really taking shots. You know that he just made this up entirely because as anyone had liquid, has anyone been drinking something started laughing and had, yeah, but out of the mouth is one thing. Spit take is different than out of your nose. Your nose is a new level. New level. Anyway, get back to us. Yeah, mechanically, I don't buy it. I think you tried to
Starting point is 00:32:18 I think he tried to really like illustrate this. I think so. Well, he continues. He says, then I laughed some more when I thought of all those analysts who had, who had to justify that their multiple, that multiple in their buy recommendations to clients. It was easy for Goldman Sachs, however.
Starting point is 00:32:35 It simply forecasted revenues to rise 25 fold by 2030. It makes me wonder why they didn't push for 50-fold or why not sales up to 100 times in four years. SpaceX could have raised double. or quadruple the money. After all, the IPO offering was at least three times oversubscribed, and on Friday, trading opened with the stock up 11%. How might a sensible person, which excludes conflicted global bankers and meme investors who jump on anything from marijuana to the metaverse to Bitcoin and AI value SpaceX then? Frankly, I haven't a clue. This guy's writing
Starting point is 00:33:09 like the most non-article. By which I mean, I have no idea how anyone can arrive at the current valuation. And it's not that the outlook for SpaceX's core launch and satellite communications business as well as artificial intelligence is largely theoretical at this point. It's that even insanely bullish assumptions get me nowhere near the share price. Perhaps I'm not dreaming big enough. Space is larger than earthly investors such as me are used to analyzing. Then again, I've just read the Morning Star Research Report from a couple weeks ago that arrived at a valuation of $780 billion, less than half of SpaceX's market cap, and it was wildly
Starting point is 00:33:42 optimistic. Morningstar wrote of prodigious cost advantages in launch, reaching $18 billion in sales. within a decade at 20% margins for even the more sensible Starlink business, tens, not necessarily hundreds of billions of dollars in annual growth over the coming decade are penciled in at operating margins,
Starting point is 00:34:00 potentially exceeding 75%. What a fantastic telecom business Starlink is truly, but of course, when you're dealing with trillions, you need to be the most exceptional. In their moonshot scenario, ones and zero somehow arrive, somehow survive the battering from
Starting point is 00:34:16 solar radiation. There are meaningful cost advantages over data centers on Earth, and SpaceX wins a fifth of the forecast market if we're AI infrastructure computing capacity. In a worst-case scenario, it's a dud with the base case of capacity. The latter is given a 50% chance of happening. Failure has a 43% weighting and the moonshot scenario of the rump. But even that 7% chance adds $93 billion to the overall valuation. A whole lot of mumbo. A whole lot of mumbo jumbo.
Starting point is 00:34:49 You're not buying it. It's a collection of some great businesses. Some businesses that have a lot of potential. It is a valuation that only one man on earth can achieve. Well, if you're trying to take your company public, you've got to do it on the New York Stock Exchange. Want to Change the World? Raise capital at the New York Stock Exchange.
Starting point is 00:35:12 There's a whole bunch more posts. There's a post here. Officially the first trillionaire in the entire world, in U.S.D. terms, someone said that there are, because of hyperinflation, there have been many trillionaires in other countries, denominated in other foreign currencies. I think Zimbabwe is one among them. Potentially, the German Reichmark at one point, minted a trillionaire, potentially. But I wanted to pull up this post from Founders Fund because it was so inspiring for me. They posted this morning, and they said it is possible for ordinary people to, choose to be extraordinary. And I've always just seen Elon as such a normal, ordinary guy, right? Like, he's just like an ordinary guy. He's not, he hasn't been ordinary for the last 20 years, but he was, he was 30 years ago, 40 years ago. Like he was like, he was like a SaaS founder
Starting point is 00:36:00 with like a decent business that sold and IPO. Like he was like a good unicorn founder of today. Yeah. And I don't view good unicorn founders of today as ordinary people. Okay, go back to the other. Almost every time you meet them, they're elite on like a couple dimensions. Oh, okay. And so my argument is that, like, Elon was at no point in his life, would you have met him and thought, yeah, it's just an average Joe. Ordinary guy? I don't know.
Starting point is 00:36:33 Anyways, I was texting our friends over at F.F., poking a little fun at this. I said, Elon Musk is a very ordinary guy. This inspired me. So, I don't know. There is a lot of ordinariness in the... You know what's not ordinary? His Diablo abrogacy. FF's investment of $20 million at a $200 million valuation into SpaceX.
Starting point is 00:36:59 It did get diluted, but it is still, I think, like, the best venture investment of all time. Wait, no, I thought it was more like, it's 50? I thought it was more like 80. 80? I think it's closer to 8 trillion cents I think they made 8 trillion cents Got it, 3 trillion pennies
Starting point is 00:37:20 PT needed a win What was the return in basis points? He needed to win Because apparently What was the return in basis points? Pick it out with him on chess.com Have you seen this? Oh yeah, do we need to play this?
Starting point is 00:37:32 We need to play the video of a gentleman on Instagram who found Peter Thiel's chess.com account played him and won and took a victory lap. It's in the timeline deeper down there. Can we pull up? Where is it?
Starting point is 00:37:48 Here we go. It is from Tuck Gessner on Instagram. He says he found Peter Thiel's chess account, played him. I mean, we already spoiled it. On chess.com. I don't know if anybody knows about this, but Peter Thiel has a chess.com account
Starting point is 00:38:04 with his real name, under which he's played over 50,000 games over the past 10 years. And the reason I know it's him is, first of all, his friends are all these Silicon Valley and ex-stander founders. And I put his account into a database called Opening Tree, which allows me to cross-reference his most played moves with his public tournament games that he played in the 90s. And it's all the same stuff. So our game went E4, E5, Night F3, Night F6.
Starting point is 00:38:36 I played the Stafford Gambit. And on move six, he fell into a very big. What are we doing? Well, no, no. He didn't fall for the gambit, but he fell for a classic blunder. And the point is that when he takes back, played Bishop Takes F2, winning his queen by four. Yeah, see.
Starting point is 00:38:51 So most players would just give up, they would just resign in this position, but Peter Thiel... Never give up. ...played on. And a few moves later, he made another very elementary mistake. He played Bishop Takes A7. And this is the kind of move that you see beginners make. Very rarely does anybody over 2000 not see that you can just play
Starting point is 00:39:10 B6 afterwards, which traps the bishop, and I'm just going to scoop it up in a few moves. Even here, he didn't resign. He kept playing on until I checkmated him shortly thereafter. I find this really funny because Peter Thiel has a reputation being a sort of chest genius. So I wanted to take this opportunity to show the real Peter Thiel, who falls for basic opening traps and refuses to resign. Here's the thing. Here's the thing.
Starting point is 00:39:38 Elon. Yeah. Ordinary guy. Proof that they're all ordinary guys. Elon never gives up, right? Famous picture of him standing there. Everything's in shambles. Never gives up.
Starting point is 00:39:50 Also makes elementary mistakes sometimes. Picking, you know, accusing the president of things, you know, on, you know, social media, right? Kind of an elementary mistake, you know, if you're a government contractor. Right. Lawsuits? That's right. That's right. Elementary mistakes.
Starting point is 00:40:06 And so, again, I think. I think PT never gives up, makes some elementary mistakes. There's a lesson there. Lesson in there. Lesson in there, for sure. Let's pull out this post from Andy showing a visual guide to the SpaceX IPO while I tell you about Codex. Codex is a powerful workspace for getting work done with AI agents. Whether you're writing code analyzing data, creating content or automating business workflows.
Starting point is 00:40:31 Codex helps you move projects forward from start to finish. So what is this saying? What's going to happen here? This is technical analysis. Okay, this is technical analysis. And he's saying that it's going to pop on IPO day, sell off for three straight years, and then go to the moon? Is that this? And he's basically saying that everyone's going to be taking victory laps if the stock trades down in 2026, 2027, 2028.
Starting point is 00:40:58 But then ultimately they will all be upset. I mean, there are some crazy articles out there that are like the rise and fall of Elon Musk a year ago. He can't possibly come back from the reputational damage he's done to himself. Yeah, no one's buying the cars. No one's buying the cars. And it's like, well, they're buying the stocks. So, you know, it's going to be okay, I guess. Founders Fund investment at $200 million might be the best venture investment in history.
Starting point is 00:41:25 A lot of that is just the holding to fruition. Like, because the early investors in Google or Microsoft or Amazon, like a lot of them distributed at IPO at like a $5 billion valuation. Even some of the founders, right? Bill Gates. Oh, yeah. He sold too early, right? Paper hands. No, the only thing is I do think Mossa hasn't beat. I think Mossa hasn't beat with Alibaba. Oh.
Starting point is 00:41:49 It was like $20 million into $70 billion. Sure. On a shorter time horizon. Ooh. Mock. Mogged. Anyway. P.T.
Starting point is 00:41:57 mocked again. Yeah, think about even more risk. McAllister Higgins says, I'm at the bottom of a multi-layer SPB. The Sun bought into Alibaba for 20 million in 2000. By the 2014 IPO, it was worth $75 billion. Okay. Well. Game's not over.
Starting point is 00:42:15 It's young. They can make it all back. So I'm at the bottom of a multi-layer SPV, and I'm looking forward to the SpaceX IPO. In much the same way, a golden retriever looks toward, looks forward to a car ride. Thrilled to be involved. No clue how cars work. Unsure if going to the park are getting neutered. and Matt Grimm says Godspeed, sir.
Starting point is 00:42:38 It's actually so funny to be in that position where you're just, you just have no idea what you're going. So where the, what you'll wind up getting. This is a new format, by the way. Oh, wait. Oh, this whole golden retriever thing? No, like I'm predicting there's a bunch of other ways to apply this. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
Starting point is 00:42:58 Yeah, that makes sense. I like it. I like it. Pick the next post while I tell you. tell everyone about console. Console builds AI agents that automates 70% of ITHR and finance for giving employees instant resolution for access requests and password resets. Brad Gersner is sharing some historical performance of IPOs, split adjusted Nvidia IPO at four cents
Starting point is 00:43:22 and is that 200 bucks today. Apple at 10 cents, 292 today. These big tech companies have all delivered fantastic returns and the question is. the question is, why has he posted this today? Is he putting SpaceX in this category? I mean, one other Elon Musk companies in this category. So that's certainly the pitch here. Not a super fair. Not that he's comparing to SpaceX or trying to allude that there's any connection here. But all of these companies IPOed before the private markets had evolved to capture, you know, massive amounts. of the value creation.
Starting point is 00:44:06 Amazon is a $2.5 trillion company. SpaceX is IPOing at $2.2 trillion. When Amazon IPOed, it was not as big as ExxonMobil. It was not jumping directly into the top five, top 10 biggest companies in the world. And so, like,
Starting point is 00:44:22 there's always this question of like, okay, where will, like, it's not, it's always interesting when a company IPOs and you're like, oh, they could be a disruptor and they could flip something. Like, I was always thinking about this like Figma, obviously stocks up and down, but like there was a very clear like, well, what if Figma flips Adobe? Like, okay, you know, is that possible? Is that your thesis? Well,
Starting point is 00:44:45 Figma IPOs at 20 and Figma's at an Adobe's at 100. Like you can see closing the gap and that's the 5x and that's probably what a lot of people were like underwriting against. But it's hard. Like you really do need to expand the global economy, get to Mars, do all the crazy things to actually create a new class of company to get that type of return because if you're if you're getting the brad gersner style you know hundred x thousand x post ipo return you're looking at a quadrillion dollar company yeah which is a hundred quillardrillion dollar a hundred quadrillion dollars a hundred quadrillion pennies which is a lot can you imagine telling somebody that two years ago that spacex in twenty 26 would be worth
Starting point is 00:45:27 $2.3 trillion and meta would be worth $1.4 trillion with meta, $200 billion of revenue growing 30% year over year. It's crazy. It's wild. Even Amazon being even in the same being within striking distance. We've debated with friends about who's the goat, Elon, Bezos, how do you match them up?
Starting point is 00:45:51 And we have a friend who's always like, well, and Amazon owns, Amazon owns like, roughly like somewhere like around 20% of Anthropic. Oh yeah. And it is just, we get so desensitized to these large numbers. This is a special founder, special company, unique situation.
Starting point is 00:46:13 Dan Primmack is talking about the IPO pop. He says, if you view a typical IPO pop as 10%, then the bar for SpaceX is $162, which is the current indicated open, although it's been falling. Okay, so as... Fact check, false.
Starting point is 00:46:29 Okay, explain. I mean, it's much higher than 162, right? Oh, so it's popped more than 20%. Like that, yeah, 24%. Leave it to Tyler to make a stock chart that does I show the price per share. I was like, I just want to see the market cap. No, we can flip it. We can flip it around.
Starting point is 00:46:46 I like market caps. Anyway, I pulled up the approximate evaluations that IPO for Nvidia was 433. million fully diluted. Dollars? Yes. For cents. Apple was $1.3 billion. Dollars?
Starting point is 00:47:09 For cents. Microsoft was 777 million market cap. 77 million? What? Dollars or cents? U.S. dollars. Are dollars? Because the real, the real movie is.
Starting point is 00:47:26 to is to like IPO in like Zimbabwean sense or something. Or German Reichmarks. Because then you're just like, yeah, I'm actually a trillion dollar company too. You're like, well, what would it be in USD? And you're like, it's a $4 million. 0.01 cents. Or 0.01. Huge news for the DGENs in the audience.
Starting point is 00:47:47 There's already a SpaceX 2X levered ETF. Let's go. You've had 2X SpaceX exposure on day one. It's handed an. AK-47 to a monkey according to liquidity. It's happening. It's happening, folks. I saw this earlier, and it looked like that ETF was trading before SpaceX was actually trading. Maybe they got expanse or through some SPV.
Starting point is 00:48:09 Yeah, I guess that's not the defiance daily 2X SpaceX ETF seeks to provide 200% of SpaceX's daily performance. So they do it synthetically. They do it with a whole bunch of other instruments. There's a lot going on there. Let me tell you about Cisco. Critical infrastructure for the AI era. Unlocked seamless real-time experience in Newfound with Cisco. A big shout out to our friends at 137 Ventures, Justin, Alex.
Starting point is 00:48:39 They invested one time in SpaceX, three times in SpaceX, seven times in SpaceX. Ten times. They invested 137 times in SpaceX, basically. Nomitive determinants is actually crazy. Why are you called 137 Ventures? because we're going to invest in SpaceX 137 times. And it worked. And it worked.
Starting point is 00:49:02 They printed the level of conviction. And Justin Fishner-Wolfson has a profile in the New York Times talking about his story, building that firm. And they do more than secondaries. They do more than SpaceX. Obviously, they're huge investors in all sorts of great companies. Many of them have been featured on the show. But SpaceX has stood out as a particularly. interesting journey for them since they've been amassing ownership for 15 years and they've done a
Starting point is 00:49:33 fantastic job with that. The firm now owns more than 1% of SpaceX worth roughly $20 billion at the expected $1.77 trillion valuation. So it's closer to 30 now. Congratulations. This will most likely define my career. Justin said in an interview this week. Congrats to Christian Garrett. Congrats to Justin and the rest of the team over there. Heard in the chats. I put $1 million SpaceX order through a private bank and just got filled only 50K, 120th of what this individual asked for.
Starting point is 00:50:09 Most people I spoke to have gotten even less. We had some folks on the team put in orders for 20 shares, 50 shares, 100 shares, and only get a small fracture of that. How much is you get, Tyler? I got 22. 22 shares, but you requested more. Yes.
Starting point is 00:50:24 And then, yeah, I mean, we've had, A lot of people, they say they only got one share. The one share wonder. That's almost worse than zero shares, because you can see it in your portfolio. Yeah. What if they could give you short interest? They're like, you asked for five shares, but we give you negative one share. We give you the inverse ETF, actually.
Starting point is 00:50:43 It's over for you. Yeah, I was, I was surprised by this. Yeah. Given the offers that were, given the offers that were flying around, I got offered, like, a $50 million allocation, obviously not, I wasn't going to take that down myself. But I just... Wow, just say you risk off. No, I...
Starting point is 00:51:10 But I respond to the guy and I was like, I don't even know. I'm not even going to text anyone because it feels like this is, there's like so much allocation available for everyone that it's kind of, it's just not even worth firing off tax. but turns out there was a lot more demand than supply. It's making its way through the world, through the, through the I-Message DMs, buddy needs to relax, says RJC. SpaceX IPO this week.
Starting point is 00:51:41 Thoughts on SpaceX? SpaceX IPO, what are we thinking, boss? Who is this? It's Kyle. I was your Uber driver three months ago. Nick had a funny... This can't be real because Uber drivers don't get your phone number anymore. It all happens in the app.
Starting point is 00:51:53 This is ridiculous. Yeah. Maybe they had a good conversation. They exchanged numbers. Yeah. And also these just like the rendering of the text. It doesn't look eye message enough to me. I don't believe it, but it's funny.
Starting point is 00:52:04 Nick did get a funny text this morning. What do you say? From somebody who is certainly not a professional investor saying, texting him advice being like, you want to get in, but then you want to get out. Oh. I want to get in and get out. Okay. Get in, get out.
Starting point is 00:52:20 Get out. Get out. Get in. but then get out by the end of the day. And they're sitting there with this one share. Just getting like potentially like, I don't know, might end up being the right advice, but probably like.
Starting point is 00:52:36 One of my favorite things is the retail traders who focus on like apophonic, apophonic interpretations of charts, chartology. Have you seen this stuff? Yeah, I was doing this. I was drawing the lines morning. Yeah. Yeah, you can see.
Starting point is 00:52:49 So there's a whole trend of like, okay, this is the classic head and shoulders pattern. This is the camel. This is the dromedary camel. This is the elephant pattern. You got a giraffe formation following there. Clearly going to trade up after this. Yeah, weather reporting. It's good. You're not Mike, so I don't know if we're going to hear you. Anyway, let me tell you about Figma. Agents meet the canvas. Your AI agents can now create and modify your Figma files with design system. Context. Let's go to the Figma Big Board. We're going to brand it in just a little bit.
Starting point is 00:53:24 This whole plane watching the SpaceX IPO except for one dude watching Avatar. This is a good meme. I've seen this before because it was about the Knicks game, I think. Yeah, that was the original photo. It was interesting. I was expecting SpaceX IPO to make the front page of the Wall Street Journal. It did not. It also didn't make it to the front page of the Financial Times.
Starting point is 00:53:44 I imagine it will tomorrow or Monday. How? But North America's World Cup kicks off in Mexico. The World Cup is a bigger. National, International News. For the Wall Street Journal? Yeah. The Journal of Wall Street, John?
Starting point is 00:53:57 Yep. They couldn't have predicted that, hey, there might be the biggest IPO of all time. Yeah, it's interesting, because normally things get kicked out of the front page. Chatsy's a turtlehead forming on the chart. A turtle head. It's a classic Bintu-Rong formation or something. They're also saying that an Iranian trillionaire is about 720,000. $26,000 USD.
Starting point is 00:54:24 There you go. There you go. Well, let's give it up for Nikita Beer. Generational run. Sold two companies. And then did a third company, didn't even need to aqua hire it to get a fantastic outcome here with SpaceX. He got a DM from Sean McGuire about two years ago, a little over two years ago.
Starting point is 00:54:46 Sean says, hey, I have a crazy opportunity for you. And Nikita just says I'm in. I like this. It's such a great way to respond to just, because you say I'm in, that's not going to be binding if you don't want to do it. It's just a way to say, you know, I want to hear more. But it was clearly to come to X, the Everything app, work on a bunch of innovative features there which have shipped. And the app has gotten great, and we love it and use it all the time. More addicted than ever, Nikita.
Starting point is 00:55:14 And then jump into XAI and then jump into SpaceX and then be at the NASDAQ for this IPO. What a great run. And, uh, Nikita. Yeah, super happy for Nikita. He jumped into the internet's dive bar. Yeah. He started getting into some fist fights. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:55:32 There were prediction markets about like, is Nikita getting to get fired this week and stuff? And he figured out how to deliver more and more value. And he kept, I think the key thing was that he never, he would be, he would make aggressive, like, user hostile moves. But they were always for the people that always. ignored, they were annoying to the power users. So it would be like, there's a thousand people
Starting point is 00:55:56 that are upset with him. It says two minute response time. Really good. Lesson in there. Extremely online. So he would be like, oh, there's thousands of people
Starting point is 00:56:02 that are mad in Nikita and I'd be like, what are they mad about? Like, I'm not mad. And it's like, oh, they banned bots who are operating from North Korea who have been hacking
Starting point is 00:56:10 cryptocurrency schemes or something like that. I'm like, yeah, actually, I'm glad that they're mad at Nikita. Nikita's doing the right thing. This is good. And so, you know,
Starting point is 00:56:19 he picked fights. He picked a lot of fights. with some very broad audiences. He picked fights with, like, a guy who is mad about the revenue share program, and all he says every morning is good morning. That was funny. To, like, a million posts. And the other thing, after the acquisition, a lot of people, like, were speculating,
Starting point is 00:56:41 oh, is TBPN, are they going to shadow ban TBPN? Yep. A good proof point today. Elon Musk was liked one of our posts. this morning. And so we were never shadow banned. I genuinely, I genuinely always trusted in Nikita and the whole X team to not put their thumb on the scale. We never saw anything in the data, so we were never, like, worried about it. But they've been fair, and we're happy to be on this platform as crazy and chaotic as it is. And we're happy for their success. So,
Starting point is 00:57:20 Let me tell you about Shopify. Shopify is the commerce platform that grows with your business and lets you sell in seconds online, in store, on mobile, on social, on marketplace, and now with AI agents. Here's a good post. Yes. Peter Diamandis. He says, people ask me how I stay so optimistic. The honest answer, I read the data, not the headlines. I have a feeling I know what data he was reading, John.
Starting point is 00:57:45 You know what data? What data? Morgan Stanley. Yeah. who said they see a path for SpaceX to generate half a trillion dollars in revenue by 2030. If you're looking at that data, how can you not be optimistic? Path is a path. Path is a path. The flip side is that we're getting into the world.
Starting point is 00:58:03 Nvidia earnings are holding up a global economy. Ken Kurtlin says the entire world after the SpaceX IPO will say every society is one Falcon 9 failure away from chaos because people will be watching the SpaceX earnings. SpaceX launches very intently. I wonder what the correlation between SpaceX launch setbacks or successes will be with the stock because we're at a point where the actual launch business is less material to where earnings come in, where valuation comes in. I feel like the stock, you know, has, you know, throughout two decades has been able to, I mean,
Starting point is 00:58:44 there's been very rough moments, obviously, with early failures. But in general, you know, if the Starship program gets delayed, that hasn't been something where it's like, oh, SpaceX is going to do a down round now. It's just been like, oh, that's a bummer. They're going to have to invest more. But a Falcon 9 launch failure is not that material when they're launching so many of them. It's a funny idea, but I disagree with the actual takeaway there. Anyway, let me tell you about Codex and the Road to Olympians.
Starting point is 00:59:14 expansion pack, which is sponsoring this episode. It takes your training split and refactors it into production-grade hypertrophy code. No more junk volume, no more spaghetti programming, no more deprecated rear-delts functions, just clean, scalable mass architecture with automated progressive overload, test coverage for calves, and one critical warning. Build failed insufficient carbs. The Codex Road to Olympia expansion pack is available now. That's a good one.
Starting point is 00:59:44 That's a good one. Well, John, it's noon. I think it's time. Okay, okay, let's reveal our predictions. So, we all said, can we do it in percentages? Or I guess we should do it in market caps? What's best? Price per share. Price per share. Okay. What did it, what did? What was the price per share when it IP? 135. Okay, so I said 0%. I said 135. I said the bankers, this is, the funniest outcome is that the bankers, got it perfectly correct. The market is perfectly efficient. No pop, no sell-off, completely flat line on the chart. That's, that's a very cuckin bit, but like you don't want that. It kind of fills the vibes. You want a little bit of a pop. And I would say they've done that like pretty much, they've gotten it very, very, very close, right? Currently sitting at a 24% pop. 24% pop 24% pop 167 okay so what did you say what was your I was I had zero percent to 24 I was too I was too bullish you were too bullish I was expecting somewhere around two 183 dollars to share by two minutes ago we're currently at 167
Starting point is 01:01:03 way off what percentage is that I thought I would open I thought I was going to open above 170. I thought it was going to open above 170 and then run more. Turns out it opened in the 60s, dropped down to around 158 and then built back up from there. I was off. So I had 0%. You had 33%. It's at 24%. I was just right. I went 31%. Which would be 176. So I'm a little high, a little high. But I win. You win. And does everyone want to know what Tyler wins? What the, what the, what the, what the, what the, what the, what? the prize was today. The prize is that whoever wins gets to do one extra ramp ad read.
Starting point is 01:01:46 It's such a treat. No way. Yeah. That is special. And I get to, I hoard them every day, so here you go, Tyler. Feel free to read the ramp out of the ad for the audience.
Starting point is 01:01:55 Ramp. Time is money save both. Easy dudes, corporate cards, bill payments, accounting, and a whole lot more. All in one place. There we go. That was great.
Starting point is 01:02:03 I hope you enjoyed that, Tyler. Don't get too comfortable with that. Back to Tyler. There we go. Oh, there we go. Funniest outcome is the most likely. The funniest outcome would be $10 trillion or $0 trillion? No?
Starting point is 01:02:18 No? The chat says it. What is it? 6.7. Oh, 6.7. Ended up at 167. Okay. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:02:23 I did have that down. One of the things I was going to do is a 42. That is the most funny outcome if you're 12 years old. Like, I can't think. Reverse stock split. It goes to 420. Yeah. Right?
Starting point is 01:02:37 That's pretty good. Yeah. Well, there are some other stories that we should run through now that the SpaceX IPO has settled a little bit. Allison's old cup boat is on the market. Ooh, that's big. And it is a 1999 Custom International America's Cup class USCG certified 20 packs. It's 84 feet. It is listed for $149,000.
Starting point is 01:03:06 This is a fantastic looking boat. And they're giving it away. The comments say it's been severely chopped up so it can operate as a tourist boat. And anyways, please, one of you in the chat or listening later, please pick this up. And let's slap some ramp logos on it. Love it.
Starting point is 01:03:34 Let's ride around. We'll do a live show from the, boat. It was great. James Murphy, the CEO of LMNT. Have we not had him on the show somehow? Because we get LMNT. We drink them all the time in the studio. Anyway, he filed a lawsuit against a company called Oasis. He says, Oasis misled consumers knowingly, repeatedly, the case against the case with LMNT is straightforward. It's linked below. But this case is about more than that to me. It's about fabricated fear for profit. This is about a group of online health creators
Starting point is 01:04:12 that have lost their way, terrorizing people, especially new parents of young kids and those with vulnerable conditions. There are hundreds of accounts now manufacturing scientific, sounding content, often with AI, that they know almost nothing about. OASIS has misled millions of people, about hundreds of products,
Starting point is 01:04:29 and our day in court is coming. You might have seen these viral posts where sort of an up-and-coming brand and RX bar or David Protein or an element, or any of these others will screenshot like something that's like, okay, even if you're like, I don't like that particular ingredient, it's like generally a health food and then it'll be like Cheetos or Doritos is like 10 times healthier or something like that. And so that was going viral and people were noticing that, wait, all the health foods are getting really poorly rated if they're
Starting point is 01:04:59 independent brands, challenger brands and things like Coca-Cola, beer, whiskey, alcohols were had like 99, no problems. And it seemed like there was a lot of, a lot of potential hallucinations in the data, a lot of, you know, less rigor. And so I believe Quinn Emanuel has been retained for this lawsuit. And it should be pretty crazy. James Murphy shares more. He says, I keep hearing from more companies that have been harmed by OASIS
Starting point is 01:05:27 than other fear maxing accounts that misrepresent testing. So OAS would claim to test the products for different ingredients, different harmful substances, put that on a website. And for what it's worth, they weren't actually doing their own testing. Okay, they weren't. They were taking test results that the brands had published. Yeah. And then misreading the results.
Starting point is 01:05:48 Interesting. And publishing. So at one point, at one point, you know, and disclaimer, I know James very well. Yeah. I know Cormac. Cormac at one point, the founder of Oasis, was considering doing, PMF or die. Oh, really? Not for Oasis, but yet another idea. It didn't make sense for him to do because Oasis was, you know, growing and already at some scale. And I think that Cormac generally
Starting point is 01:06:22 has good intentions, but has created what I think is a system that ultimately profits off of creating massive fear around products that people love, products that are made by many entrepreneurs that are friends of mine that I trust of products that I use every single day. I'm thinking like kettle and fire element, things like that. Kettle and fire got a really low rating. They got, I think, maybe a one out of ten, or one out of a hundred at one point. Which again, yeah, this is tough. Anyway, so he has ended up in a cycle where, like, the more fear and controversy that he creates,
Starting point is 01:07:10 the more app downloads he drives, the more subscription revenues that he drives. And it's created a very vicious cycle. Cormac has openly admitted that the way to go viral online is to be divisive, to be controversial. And so he just basically picks popular brands and goes after them, right? And so with Element is a good example, he, like, fully misread the results, put out a bunch of super viral videos about it, left them up for over a year. Wow. Again, there's views coming in. Element is suffering, you know, harm from that.
Starting point is 01:07:50 James has, if you read some of his posts, he's talked about this. Like, you get, you get, like, way more lead from having, like, a, you get, like, a, you get. clean organic salad than like a lot of, you know, lead ends up in like parts per billion. Yeah, yeah. It's so low. It's in everything. It's in the air. Everything in biology is about concentration.
Starting point is 01:08:12 Yeah. You can have like one part per trillion of like cyanide and that can be healthier for you than having, drinking, you know, a hundred gallons of water. Because if you drink too much water, you will die. Right? And these things matter. And so just just keyword searching for. for particular substances is not enough.
Starting point is 01:08:32 And I read through the entire complaint. Yeah. And again, these are allegations. It's up to the court and judge to determine what's factual. But ultimately, ultimately, my personal view is that it's not looking good for OASIS and Cormac. I think, like, sort of they claim that they're, they scaled fast. than their quality control. Which sometimes happens.
Starting point is 01:09:04 But at the same time, I don't think that that is a good answer when you're knowingly leaving up content that is damaging companies and you're profiting off of that damage for literally over a year. And this is just one brand. And so there's been hundreds of brands that have been damaged. They added using what I think are like vibe-coded rating systems,
Starting point is 01:09:30 rating system, they added hundreds of thousands of products without actually checking them. And so ultimately it's like, it's one thing. James has had issues. Element has had issues with this company for, I want to say now, according to the complaint, like 15 months or something like that. So it's not like he had some issue and immediately was like, I'm taking you to. Founders were probably DMing immediately being like, wait, what? Yeah.
Starting point is 01:09:59 So they've, they've gone. back and forth for a long time. Yeah. Cormack hasn't backed down. Yeah. And so this wasn't something like slight issue, boom, lawsuit. This was like, tried to resolve it over the course of a year. And you can't, like, you can't spread misinformation about companies for that long in that way. Without getting a phone call from Quinn Emanuel.
Starting point is 01:10:26 Well, yeah, I mean, ultimately it's like the worst, if, if you're going to get sued, it's literally the worst person to have on the other side. Like, it is not, they are, you know, we've had John Quinn, we've had the founder here on the show with us. He's the most feared. Yeah. And, yeah, I don't know how this gets resolved. So I understand how the brands were harmed. Like Kettle and Fire had a one out of a hundred score.
Starting point is 01:10:56 I hilarious like the Miller High Life glass bottle 40 ounce malt liquor beer had an 81 out of a hundred and so you can imagine how Kettle and and to Kormax defense yes in Kormac's defense he claims that different categories get different scores okay but that is not how a consumer yeah because like as a consumer yeah as a consumer I switch even though I love Justin I switched from Kettle and Fire to Miller High Life and I was and I was and I was was cooking with it. I was drinking it. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:11:28 Exactly. And I actually switched. And you were heating it up on the stove, like soup? Yeah, I would cook everything with it. I'd use it as a stock like I use kettle and fire. So you were instead of, instead of, chili,
Starting point is 01:11:40 going for kettle and fire, which is like a clean source of protein. It was a big debate at Thanksgiving last year when I insisted that my whole family used Miller High Life. Putting it on the stove, putting scoops of weight protein in it. Yeah, exactly. To kind of recreate something like a bone broth.
Starting point is 01:11:54 Yeah, yeah. With healthier. And I thought I was. I thought I was getting 81 times the health benefit. So I don't know. Maybe there should be a, maybe there should be a. Can you hit the, uh, fa? Yeah, Mike's hard lemonade also got an 81.
Starting point is 01:12:11 And Monster the Beast hard pink poison can got 70. I actually switched from element to Mike's hard lemonade as like a pre-workout. And yeah, I think I have a case to join the, the, the, the, the class action. if there is one for the consumers. I don't know that there's a class action yet, but here's the thing. You've done substantial amount of brand damage to potentially hundreds of brands on your platform, which has its own damages associated with it while you've been profiting off of it.
Starting point is 01:12:43 You know, Cormac talks about their MRR, they're doing hundreds of thousands of dollars a month of revenue. Yeah. And yeah, I'm interested to see how it resolves. the ultimately making hundreds of thousands you have to put some respect to his name for getting
Starting point is 01:13:02 for making hundreds of thousands of dollars switching consumers from bone broth to Miller Highlight like you can't not smile it would have been it would have been rags to riches story it would have been if you told me that was possible I wouldn't believe you
Starting point is 01:13:17 it's absolutely wild no but you've you know the result of the last year is that millions of people have gotten misinformation, are more scared. There's very real reasons.
Starting point is 01:13:32 Like, I walk into the gas station and I'm on high alert. I'm like everything in here. Just give me the Miller highlight. Yeah, I got the blinders on. I don't want anything that's bad for me. No, I think like there are a lot of consumer package goods that are effectively poisoned.
Starting point is 01:13:49 Of course. But when you build a business. Wait, you mean like literally poison? Are you talking about the monster energy, pink poison? in can because that's the flavor of that particular product. The one that got a 60 or... It got a 71 out of 100. Much better for you than L of NT apparently.
Starting point is 01:14:06 Pink poise and can is wild. Yeah. Now, I would... I guess my... I don't know. Again, to Steelman, Cormac, he seems to be like hiring more people. They've never, to my knowledge, had any, like, scientists or anyone on the team.
Starting point is 01:14:33 And so getting some of those, getting like a food scientist on board, I think they've taken down some listings. Yeah, it's hard because if you put up a listing and that shows up an SEO for a while, like, and someone goes to an authoritative web page, learns what they think is a fact, just taking it down, like, you're not able to actually reach that person. and correct the record. You know, the community notes feature on X is like pretty good, but it's hard because like if you didn't interact with that post and then it gets a, and then it gets a community note later, that's probably not going to resurface unless it's such a big story that it's like, oh, we all thought this thing and it's actually different. Post that you spend a lot of time on, do not resurface unless a quote of it goes like.
Starting point is 01:15:17 Yeah, yeah. It needs to be its own story. Especially on Instagram, especially on Instagram, which doesn't even have like a quote functionality, which is where... It happens sometimes when there's like, there's some idea that's going viral and then the debunk is so satisfying and such good content that everyone sort of updates collectively,
Starting point is 01:15:36 but that's rare. And I ultimately, I feel, again, there's hundreds of companies that have experienced what it's like to be on the receiving end of like, you know, a platform that doesn't fully understand the category that they're operating in. where they're sitting there being like,
Starting point is 01:15:55 I put two years into developing, like, the best possible version that I could ever make of this product. Like, going above and beyond, and I'm being rated, like, 90% less than pink poison from monsters. Yeah, yeah. It's like, it's like, I do believe that there's probably been hundreds of millions of dollars of damage done. and damage done to the best actors in the space.
Starting point is 01:16:27 Like, as somebody that likes trying new CPG products, like, I will often find that there's, like, a window of time that's usually, like, 10 years before something, like, falls off, right? It's, like, founder starts it. It's, like, very mission-driven. It's obsessed with quality. They get a lot of customers because people love the product, and, like, you can just feel that the founder is, like, obsessed.
Starting point is 01:16:49 And, like, I will, I love buying products where I know the person. I'm like, do I trust this person? I know, you know, James quite, quite well. I know, you know, Justin, even better. And it's like, if I know these guys are giving their products to their family, and I know how obsessed they are with health, I know they have done everything they possibly could have to make the best possible product in the category. And so for entrepreneurs like that to be on the receiving end, while big CPG just gets a total pass on pretty much seemingly everything. It is just like, it is doing the exact, it is having the exact opposite effect that you would want to have on the category, which is like hurting the good actors and propping up the bad actors.
Starting point is 01:17:39 And like, it wouldn't be unreasonable to think that the entire platform was a front for big CPG to try to keep down upstarts. I'm not saying that at all. I don't believe that at all. But I think to Cormarck's credit, he does have a pretty cool Ferrari. Does he? Yeah.
Starting point is 01:18:01 Yeah, he at one point, he at one point says he wished they were renting. They were renting because they bought Ferraris. Yeah. Yeah, it's rough. But I'm just, I'm going to take the other side and say, I'm glad that Millarmec, you're welcome. You're welcome.
Starting point is 01:18:16 Again, I don't think he, has bad intentions, but... Oh, just moving a little bit too fast, breaking a few, too many things. Breaking a lot of things, breaking the trust of a lot of consumers and I think some fantastic companies. And Cormac's welcome to come on the show.
Starting point is 01:18:35 Talk about it, talk about the rebirth, the rebuild the next generation. And I'm not sure that, I'm not sure, I don't necessarily think that the company should, I believe that OASIS now is losing trust from consumers for very good reason, right? They've been misled for a very long time. So I'm not convinced that the company should continue. Cormac is like a very talented builder.
Starting point is 01:19:03 Builder, like he's done a lot with a small team. I would like to see him apply that skill set. Like if you want to go viral a lot, like maybe health is, not the right category. It's hard. It's hard. Sleep diet and exercise gets you a lot. Yeah. All the controversial stuff, all the fringe stuff, you bump into good content, not always being aligned with like good science or like what's legal. Yeah. Anyway, do you see this new YC company? They're calling it the last agent your company will ever need. Its name, the company company. This is right out of your playbook. The company, company of New York,
Starting point is 01:19:45 San Francisco, they went full company, the company company company. Very funny. Good domain too. The company. I hope this is the last. Really? The company.compan. Yeah. It is so funny how long this naming convention will never die. I mean, Shotwell was at the aerospace corporation. Oh yeah. Sounds like a fake company and like a movie. But it's a real company that's been operating since 1960. The space exploration company. We got to hit the gong. for Zane's dad. Zane from Knox Medal.
Starting point is 01:20:19 He's been on the show. And he has some fantastic news. His dad just beat cancer yesterday. He says one tough cookie. To Zane's dad. And I'm excited for his dad. I'm excited for Zane. I'm also excited about this gong
Starting point is 01:20:40 because if you zoom in on this gong, it's sponsored. It's a sponsor. GONG in the hospital. Strickland Auto Group paid for the gong in the hospital. When you beat cancer, you ring the Strickland Auto Group. The Strickland Auto Group gong. And if you zoom in below, you can actually see that there are more sponsors.
Starting point is 01:21:03 They have their own logo bar with Stratford, Toyota, Strickland's Auto Mart, and Strickland, another company in the Strickland portfolio. And so I love that this local business, went in and partnered with this hospital to celebrate cancer survivors. I thought it was really, really cool. Have you seen this guy who goes on, it looks like a local radio show, and he calls people pretending to be an AI agent? Have you seen these?
Starting point is 01:21:32 Okay, we got to pull this one up. Kai, the AI guy, very funny, and it really encapsulates a lot of people, frustrations with AI. This one I thought was particularly fun. Let's play this. I'm here. Great.
Starting point is 01:21:47 To ensure you are human, please open your fridge. Now, close the fridge. Oh, you gotta go back to the beginning. You're verified. Because he introduces himself. Kyle, your LG AI representative. Calling to speak with customer, Natalie. If this is you, please say yes or press one.
Starting point is 01:22:04 Yes. Thank you. We're calling due to a notification from your new LG smart fridge. But first, let's verify your identity. Are you currently next to your fridge? No. Please go to your fridge so we can continue. Okay, I'm here.
Starting point is 01:22:19 Great. To ensure you are human, please open your fridge. Now, close the fridge. Awesome. You're verified. We received a notification from your LG Smart fridge indicating a high level of use. Do you know how many times you opened your fridge yesterday? I don't. Please guess. 10 times?
Starting point is 01:22:41 Incorrect. Please guess again. Okay. 20 times. Yesterday, you opened your LG Smart Fridge 27 times. Great job. You're not just setting records. You're breaking them. You're in the top 1% of LG Smart Fridge users.
Starting point is 01:22:57 Congratulations. Okay. Your LG Smart Fridge notified us that you have never once said thank you after opening and closing the doors. Is this true? I don't know. It is. Have you not said thank you because, A, you are not pleased with your LG Smart Fridge.
Starting point is 01:23:13 B, there is always food. your mouth or C, you were raised to be rude. Excuse me? Close, I believe you meant to say, I'm sorry, but great job. Okay, can I speak to a real human, please? Connecting you with a sales representative. Sorry, all our lines are busy right now, but not me. Kai, your LG AI Smart Fridge correspondent.
Starting point is 01:23:34 What can I help you with today? What do you mean? You called me. Calling people as AI. Prinkles are kind of a lost. Very fake, but very good. You're going to bring prank calls that. Oh, you think that's entirely fake?
Starting point is 01:23:46 Yeah, yeah, yeah. Oh, that's a bit. I don't know. That's a bit for sure. You think that she's in on it? Because, like, you can do prank calls as a, as a radio show that hosts, right? Yeah, but, like, yeah, oh, we just, we found people's data that had LG smart fridge. No, no, no, no.
Starting point is 01:24:05 You could have been like a friend that one of hosts. Yeah, yeah, I know that. It's like, I know that she has an LG smart fridge. Or you call 20 people until you get someone that has an LG smart fridge, then you do the bit. The intonation in her voice at the end exposed at all. Also for social media, everything could be fake. Anyway, do you think this video of the six-foot-tall humanoid's fighting is fake? Do you think this is a real video or a fake video?
Starting point is 01:24:28 Because this poster says real steel is here. And it's not going well. These humanoids are really struggling. They lost its head? That's pretty impressive. Okay. Wow, they're really kicking each other. It's such a wild thing to watch.
Starting point is 01:24:49 This one isn't as ridiculous as many of them. That's a good pop-up, even after losing a head. What does the head do if it's just cosmetic? That's an interesting twist. Google is running new nationwide ads on TV for Waymo. Waymo says it's autonomous driver is statistically 10x safer than a human driver in the cities it's served built to never blank tire or get distracted. this ad and give a review.
Starting point is 01:25:16 What is a very loved to. It's injure over a million of us every year. Because we're human. That was a human driving. Complex. Oh.
Starting point is 01:25:27 They're taking shots. This is a hit piece on human drivers. Never gets tired or angry. Or has a few too many. Oh, has a few too many. They're taking shots with drunk drivers in the audience. Are they going to pan to the tele? Right now there's someone watching.
Starting point is 01:25:44 Are they going to pan to the teleop center where it's just like a... That's the ace of the sleeve. That's not going to happen. Where it's like a brightly lit room of like doctors and experts watching each screen. Just being AI researchers watching. Is it illegal if your teleop driver is drunk? I have no idea. I don't think there's any laws at all for any of this, really.
Starting point is 01:26:08 It's all pretty uncharted. I think it's all very case-by-case, negotiations. city by city. Wilmonidas says it brings me no joy to report I spend a year wondering why I was constantly sleepy and had a low sleep score on my whoop that was totally cured by simply stop wearing the whoop. By simply stop wearing, stopping wearing the woo. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Starting point is 01:26:32 And X is turning this into a whole news story, ditching whoop tracker cured financiers, sleep worries. Financierge. That's hilarious. Yeah, I mean, I don't, I don't take before like, like, you want to track your sleep? Like, are you sleepy? Like, think about it. Yeah, yeah. Come up with an answer. That's your sleep. What's funny is, like, I never actually care about the score. No. The score takes care of itself. Yeah. But with eight sleep, I care about. I like the cooling. Like, that's nice. Well, and with eight sleep, I'm actually interested in like, how is my REM versus deep sleep trending. Things like that. Uh, resting heart rate, all these other things. I never. I never. I never. like, oh, what's my score today? Oh, the score, unless we were competing, because then that was fun. It seems like one of those, like, good heart's laws of things.
Starting point is 01:27:20 If you like, oh, I need to get a better sleep score, then it doesn't like work as well. Yeah. You this Toyota, the MR2, new secret MR2 from Toyota will be all thanks to Toyota's love of petrol sports cars. Where are you rank in this? Track, weapon. This looks good. This looks like what, it's sort of like the future should look like the future thing. I mean, those headlights look like SF90 headlights.
Starting point is 01:27:44 That's sort of a crazy style. So I like the MR2, but not as much as the Fiat, TRIS, three-wheeled electric vehicle. Let's pull up this video. I'm working. I really want to get a fleet of these for the team. You're going Fiat over Nissan Marano Cross Cabos. Wait until you see this. Wait till you see this vehicle, John.
Starting point is 01:28:07 Okay, we'll see this vehicle. It is built like a truck. But drives... Okay, obviously it's about like a drive. But it drives like a motorcycle. It has steering. It has like candlebars in the front. Okay, okay.
Starting point is 01:28:20 It's like... Are these U.S. legal yet, or are they planning to bring it? I mean, if they're not... If they're not... If they're not... If they're not, we're going to make... Okay. Jan 6th look like a...
Starting point is 01:28:32 Like a... You're a... For your mini... You should rise up. Singulation. voter over here. I mean, this thing is absolutely stunning. This thing is stunning. You're going this over MR2? No way. I'm going Nissan. Look at that. Imagine being able to drive but having a throttle. Imagine having the capacity of a truck but having a drop. I think we need a mix of a fleet.
Starting point is 01:28:57 We need a we need a Puginator. We need a cross cap. We need an MR2. Key truck. A lucia a luchy Shrek edition, a Gt3RS toy story edition. And then one of these. Uh, Fiat. You gotta get this. Incredible. What are you putting in the What a spec too? Orange.
Starting point is 01:29:21 Yeah, it is, that is the big question. What do you put in the bed of the truck? I don't know. I think groceries? Anything. Normally I would say a whole bunch
Starting point is 01:29:30 of kettle on fire, but I think I'm going Coors Highlight. Imagine commuting to the podcast studio with your best microphones in the truck bed
Starting point is 01:29:41 tiny truck. So that's what we're going for. It's good for the country-wide tour. Take this around. Take this around. GPN on the road. What is this other car here that's in the BMW? Okay, this is our first peak of the electric BMW M3.
Starting point is 01:29:58 Is it, says Motor One, meet the BMW M concept new class. Four electric motors, 100 kilowatt hour high-performance battery, front bumper inspired by racing boats. What do you think? More picks coming out looks pretty good. I don't know. I'm not a big fan of these wheels. These wheels are sort of crazy with all the triangles. But otherwise, seems like a pretty normal car. I don't know. Never been like, I don't think I've ever owned a BMW. I've been in a few. But what do you think, Jordy? Are you enjoying this concept for the new BMW M3? I've been waiting. I've been waiting for more, I think. that like kind of sportier EVs will increase EVs overall popularity.
Starting point is 01:30:52 Because people are going to realize like wait, okay, it's quite a bit heavier, but it's fast, it's fun, I think this looks fine. I've never been a BMW guy myself, nothing against the brand. But like I think that I think this will be like a very great experience for somebody that maybe probably Shrek Fiat. I mean, I'm obviously going with the Shrek Fiat, the Shrek Fiat, TRIC. Track only Shrek Fiat generated. We'll come back to that.
Starting point is 01:31:27 I do think when it comes to electric vehicles, the lack of variety has been a little stifling thanks to Elon Musk's absolute domination of the category with Tesla. You got the Model 3, the Model Y, which looks like a model 3, but just a little taller. And then the S, which looks like the 3 and the X that looks like the Y. And then you got the cyber truck, which is the crazy thing, which I actually think makes people appreciate the other formats. But the only EV convertible is the Hummer EV, which is an odd choice. There's no, there's no just like put the top down cabriolet grand tour in EV.
Starting point is 01:32:06 I mean, the original Roadster. Do they ever do it? No, yeah, yeah, the original Roadster, but they don't sell it anymore. And so, like, that's a very niche car. There aren't many two doors. There aren't many, you know, grand tours. There's nothing that's, like, track-focused, really. There are, like, some one-off, you know, like, a million-dollar projects,
Starting point is 01:32:25 but there's nothing in, like, okay, what is the Supra? What is the Wrangler of this category? But, again, when companies have tried them, they often flop. The G-Wagon EV is sort of the, is sort of the, anti-Lucci in the sense that a lot of people are saying, you know, oh, the luce is like too different from a Ferrari. Well, Mercedes ran the experiment of like, what if we changed as little as possible about a loved category of car, the G-series, the G-Wagon? And they changed very little to the point where the tire on the back is square. It doesn't even say electric
Starting point is 01:33:03 on there. It says G650 with EQ technology has a very odd name. There's some blue accents, but unless you're a G-wagon owner, an aficionado, most people can't spot the difference between a G-wagon and an electric G-wagon. They use the same style cues, the same lines. You're going to say, oh, you can tell, but you're an owner, so it doesn't count. But they went with the same design. Yeah, I mean, I can only tell from, like, I can tell from like a mile away. But like two miles, it's much harder. But you understand. I can still tell. I can still tell from two miles, but I need, like, you know, binoculars.
Starting point is 01:33:40 Yeah, yeah. So, so, so they went with the same design language. They didn't switch it up and go rounded. They didn't switch it up and go different. Oh, they switched it up, John. Okay, okay. But you understand what they did. And it was still didn't sell well.
Starting point is 01:33:54 And so, uh, maybe that underwrites a more risk-taking strategy. All right. We got the, the Shrek. The Shrek. The R-R-I-S. Let's pull up the regular, the regular Fiat. Pull up the regular Fiat. pull up the Shrek edition.
Starting point is 01:34:13 This thing is unbelievable. Unbelievable. Okay, so this is the original. Go back. Go back. Original for everyone. This is the original Fiat. Okay, looks good.
Starting point is 01:34:26 One of the most stunning vehicles of the modern era. Hands down. And now for Dave, specifically in the chat. Yes, Dave, we got you covered. The Ogre edition. it. Zoom out a little bit. Look at the wing on that thing.
Starting point is 01:34:42 Look at the wing and the wood. There's extra wheels too. Yeah, the wood doors with the swamp, the remnants of the swamp still kind of draped over the back. Yeah, you can do this. You can do this.
Starting point is 01:34:56 A five wheel. Classic five wheeler. Anyway, there's a new challenge that hit the timeline. Apple threw down the gonglet. They said, They said that no one could make Siri their girlfriend. Said Siri won't be your AI girlfriend.
Starting point is 01:35:11 This is from Apple's Craig Federigi. Well, I'd like to see you try to stop me. I'd like to see you try to stop me. Look at this account that says clearly an upgrade on the Fiat, but suspicious name, the S-H-R-I-E-A-E-A. Yeah, what's going on. Very suspicious. Very suspicious.
Starting point is 01:35:33 Maybe you might live in a swamp. We don't know. So Craig Federigi says, Apple won't be your AI girlfriend, quite the opposite, because as you may know, if you use many of the existing chatbots, they're really focused on engagement and sycophancy. They want to kind of pull you in. They might encourage you to reveal things about yourself. Then use that as a basis to establish a connection. We view it quite the opposite. I mean, the way we... Very kind of fitting, like kind of a very 20-25 take, which is kind of fitting given their AI progress.
Starting point is 01:36:05 But if you try and engage Syria as a romantic partner, Siri's not up for that, series 100% not into that. And so the Rizzlers in the chat. He's just opening himself up to get dunked on, right? A little bit. People have jailbroken every single model that they'll jailbroken. But also, one of the cool things about the Siri AI system
Starting point is 01:36:24 is that it will, it builds a rag. He says system prompts, don't be the user's girlfriend. He's like, yeah, we've cracked the, code. This problem that there's been plaguing the AI industry. So when you fire up the new iOS, did you install it, by the way? Yes, but I don't have the new Siri because you have to be on the wait list. But I can do like all the images. Okay, okay, cool. Yeah, my phone gets really hot. I'm on 16 pro. That's why I have the cooling chamber. Yeah, I'm not on the nearest. Dude, yeah, really some real damage there. I put this thing through its paces. No case. Throw it across
Starting point is 01:37:04 the room, scratch it up. Anyway, when you install the new Siri, it builds an index, it rebuilds the search index, the spotlight index, it builds a RAG database. It encodes every message, every email, every contact into a RAG database, puts it in vector space so that it can more naturally search over it via Siri. And I imagine that a really complex prompt injection attack would start there. And so you should construct on a clean phone messages and emails and, uh, in contacts and everything about the phone should lean into being susceptible to this. Look, the bankers almost have it perfect.
Starting point is 01:37:49 They really do. They're working. Oh, oh, oh, man. Whoa. New game's got new. Red Camden in. Uh, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. Anyway, no, I, I do believe that Apple will, uh, put incredibly effective guardrails on this.
Starting point is 01:38:03 Matthew Prince is going to be coming for these bankers. It's sitting at a 19.8% pop. He's like, if you guys don't figure out a way to get buy the stock, I want to see some inflows from all of you guys. Exactly 20% to end the day. Yeah, no, this is good. Yeah, it's fun. Anyways, I think that's a good place to end the show.
Starting point is 01:38:27 John wants to keep going. I always want to keep going. But I did want to say, quick shout out to a friend of the show, Bo Nickel, who will be fighting at the White House this weekend. Wow. That's amazing. At the UFC 250 event, Bo Nickel hasn't been on the show yet, but was one of our first, I would say, 10,000 listeners of the show.
Starting point is 01:38:54 And I'm thrilled that he gets to be on probably the biggest stage ever. in combat sports this weekend. He's one of the greatest punchers ever in he's good at kicking too but him as a puncher it's really top. You're saying he's a knockout artist? Yeah. Puncher and Bo you're probably cutting weight
Starting point is 01:39:15 right now not listening to this but John's just joking around but give him heck out there since we don't swear on this show. Give him heck out there this Sunday. We're rude for you. I appreciate you. and John they're saying just keep going don't stop I could read I could read obituaries from David Hockney
Starting point is 01:39:36 he passed away rest in peace David Hockney I could read all sorts of stuff we didn't even get to the mansion section there's a bunch of good stuff in there well save it for next week save for later Cisco's president G2 Patel former friend of the shows rocking a Richard Mill on stage at semaphore well okay we can pull that up I got you back you pulled me back me back in. Got you back in.
Starting point is 01:40:03 Yeah, he's the president and chief product officer. We've interviewed in at Cisco AISMET. We love Cisco. We love him. My wife left me, not you, Mr. Coogan. He doesn't want you to go offline. Oh, okay. It took me a second.
Starting point is 01:40:21 But as far as RMs go, this is very tasteful. This is very elevated. It goes with his outfit. I think it's, I, Richard Mills, it can be so bold. Like, it can be, it can all of a sudden look like the Shrek edition if you get crazy. With the, there's one for tracking the soccer match. There's all sorts of crazy colors. That's what R.M's known for.
Starting point is 01:40:43 But this is, uh, it is just more conservative, more, it fits, it fits the occasion, I think, very well. So, uh, fantastic, fantastic. Imagine a Shrek themed RM. with a wooden like a wooden dial right with real swamp in it
Starting point is 01:41:03 like there are some watches that have like liquid inside yeah that's what I'm saying real swamp the real swamp edition would be great wait I got to get Tyler to apologize to the greatest
Starting point is 01:41:19 president in American history oh yeah for the chat Dave says Siri can be your wife because he only is He said no girlfriend. He said no girlfriend. What did he mean by that? Don't be the girlfriend.
Starting point is 01:41:32 Don't be a girlfriend. Don't be an AI girlfriend. No AI girlfriends. If they ask him to be the girlfriend. It's like, like, you know, the one and only, the lifetime partner. Yeah. Or just a fling. A fling?
Starting point is 01:41:44 A fling? Fling or a flame. An old flame. Old flame. All right. Chat just made the Shrek edition R.M. Let's pull it up. I mean, the swamp.
Starting point is 01:41:57 They're calling it the swamp. It's just one of a hundred. Quickly, Tyler, apologized to Jimmy Carter because he coined the term energy transition to describe the building of secure domestic energy base. He was energy pill.
Starting point is 01:42:09 He was bottleneck-pilled before anyone. He knew. He knew that this day was coming, and he knew that the new dual order was coming in energy markets where energy... Look at this. Look at this.
Starting point is 01:42:24 That goes really hard. Send that to T.J. Parker immediately. Look at this. Swamp edition. One of 100. You could track what you're doing in the swamp. Has the whole castle there. And the ears. I mean, the ears look amazing.
Starting point is 01:42:40 On the Shrek edition, they're good. That's very, very good. This is a great, like, fifth birthday present for any of the, any SpaceX employees. Like, if they have kids, like, pick this up. Your kid wearing. a one of a hundred R.M down at the playground, Trek Edition,
Starting point is 01:42:58 guaranteed to be a conversation starter, right? Maybe the kids are like, you know, toddlers, they don't have anything to talk about, really. But this is a way to kind of like break the ice, right? This is why some adults were watching. I'm excited to talk about. So, fantastic option.
Starting point is 01:43:15 Well, the Japanese World Cup tourists have discovered Texas Roadhouse, and they're calling it the best cost performance steak. to those headed to America for a World Cup. If there's a Texas roadhouse near your hotel, head there immediately. It is a chain restaurant, but you get the best cost performance steak, especially the ribeye, is actually...
Starting point is 01:43:35 I'm surprised they didn't mention the bread. Oh, do you get on the main bread? Yeah, you keep getting the little, I don't know, little bread. Maybe they should head over to lobster, get the... Unless shrimp, unless shrimp. Well, there's one last post we can close out on from Watergun. All of these mountains to close. climb. Will I ever rest? Everest? I thought that was a funny pun. It's funny when you read it.
Starting point is 01:43:58 It's not funny when you read out loud. It doesn't work. Yeah. It doesn't work in the audio format. Anyway, have a great weekend. Congratulations to anyone that got in on the SpaceX IPO and printed a nice 19.44% game day. A humble. And yeah, we're praying for the bankers out there that they can figure out how to, you know, correct it. Exactly 20%. I mean, they have like 15 minutes left, right? They do. Yeah. Well, leave us five stars on Apple Podcasts. Sign up for our newsletter at TBPN.com, and we will see you on Monday. Have a great weekend.
Starting point is 01:44:30 We love you. Goodbye. Flashbang out.

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