TBPN Live - Trae Stephens, Ashlee Vance, Avi Schiffmann, Shaan Puri, Justin Mares, Max Meyer, Everything is Computer
Episode Date: March 13, 2025TBPN.com is made possible by:Ramp - https://ramp.comEight Sleep - https://eightsleep.com/tbpnWander - https://wander.com/tbpnPublic - https://public.comAdQuick - https://adquick.comBezel - ht...tps://getbezel.comFollow TBPN:Â https://TBPN.comhttps://x.com/tbpnhttps://open.spotify.com/show/2L6WMqY3GUPCGBD0dX6p00?si=674252d53acf4231https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/technology-brothers/id1772360235https://youtube.com/@technologybrotherspod?si=lpk53xTE9WBEcIjV(09:35) - Is Apple Falling Apart? (26:13) - Avi Schiffman (42:06) - Ashlee Vance (01:00:05) - Max Meyer (01:13:19) - Justin Mares (01:46:39) - Shaan Puri (02:12:25) - Flock Safety (02:13:35) - Trae Stephens (02:45:25) - The Timeline
Transcript
Discussion (0)
Welcome to TBPN. It is Thursday, March 13th, 2025. We are live from the temple of technology.
The forgers of finance, the capital of capital. This show starts now. We got a great show
for you today. We have a ton of guests, an insane amount of guests, the most amount of
guests we've ever had on the show. I believe I think we'll be setting a new record. And
we actually added guests since we announced the original lamp of guests. So why don't we, should I run through?
We got Avi Schiffman, Ashley Vance, Max Meyer,
Justin Mares, Sean Pury, Trey Stevens,
and maybe some more.
Maybe some more.
We'll probably end up adding some.
That is a stacked team.
But first off, we got to start with a banger post.
I saw Palmer share
this and I laughed out loud. Did you hear the Did you hear the
everything is computer quote from our president Donald Trump?
Of course, I only heard about secondary memes. Like I don't
actually know where it came from.
Well, so he he wanted to support his buddy, Elon, he bought a
Tesla, and he was getting into it. And he said, "'Wow, everything is computer.'"
And what I loved about this line is that it was a totally
bipartisan meme right away.
People on both sides of the political aisle
sort of agreed that this was just an iconic line,
and we should share it widely.
So, really an all-timer.
In short, software is eating the world.
And then Tweet Davidson, who I think's been on the show
before, says, bro, last night was a computer.
And I love that.
I thought that was such a great post.
It was very funny.
Anyway, if you didn't follow along,
if you're on the Apple RSS feed,
you probably missed our show yesterday.
We were doing an experiment.
We're not sure if we'll upload that one. We're figuring it out. But I don't think we were live from YC
demo day. So we did a live stream at YC demo day. The house was absolutely packed.
There's like amazing energy. Ten thousand startups in every patch now. It's
closer to like 200. But there's a lot of people there, a lot of companies. And so
we basically held court all day long and just had a bunch of people on the recording is on X
we may I think we need to like you know take out some highlights and yeah
creates yeah I think we're gonna make some clips dedicated video those on X
but it was a lot of fun and so thanks for everyone over at YC to help you know
what John happen ever since demo day I have not heard a peep
from the techno pessimist crowd.
Not one word.
They've just been completely silent.
They've been silent.
And yeah, they may have been silent once and for all.
The batch was, I mean, across the board,
tons of super talented founders building and everything
from robotics to the sort of more obvious voice AI opportunities,
but across the board, a really impressive crowd.
And I was amazed at how it felt like they had gotten
some media training while in YC,
because a lot of the, maybe people were self-selecting
into the types that wanted to come
and be on the mics with us,
but in general, I really enjoyed talking to everybody
and I'm excited to see where these companies go.
There was a lot of chatter from the investor crowd
about you asked them, what do you think about the batch?
And everybody would be like, oh, prices are high.
That was sort of the default response.
Some people like Nate were just saying,
we overpay, that's our game.
But my advice to VCs that are sort of frustrated
with valuations in YC batches is just,
it's not really an issue if you just invest
in the transcendent entrepreneurs
that go on to build generational companies.
And so my advice would just be just back those companies
Yeah, yeah exactly the entry price doesn't really matter that as long as you're sure that when you write a
Safe note on an uncapped, you know a couple hundred K
You're sure that that's gonna be a hyperscaler a future multi-trillion mag seven move over
It's the mag eight now,
once that company goes public.
Exactly, exactly.
So that's the game, that's how it's played,
but not easy for everyone to do.
I mean, it was very funny, it was very fun time,
and it's interesting seeing the rubber meet the road
on the hot take that like everything in YC
is cursor for X, it's all AI agents for this or it's
all on it's all using the on trend technology. And I mean, my take was like, when I get into
the weeds with a founder on a specific industry or niche, like that, that, that company that
was helping with elder care enrollment for Medicare plans.
And I'm like, yeah, this is like a trendy,
they're using the latest AI tools,
but this is still just like this weird niche
that they're gonna go and build their own business in
and maybe it becomes big,
but it just feels like they're gonna solve a problem
pretty quickly.
That's not gonna be solved just by the next training run
of a foundation model company that's just,
oh, it pops out, it's amazing, it's solved.
And what I thought was interesting about that business
is that for the end users,
which are people that are enrolling in Medicare,
the product experience will probably be way better
than the traditional experience today
where you call a rep, they wanna get off the phone
because they wanna close the next person, an AI agent can just sort of chit chat with the person for a really long
time and potentially they can make a small dent in the elderly loneliness. And so yeah, I've seen so
many of these waves where, you know, it's been, oh,.com was just put everything on a website.
Then there was the mobile boom. Oh, you're a CRM, but you're mobile first.
And that one didn't really work out.
A lot of them were sustaining,
mobile was very much a sustaining innovation.
Instagram sold for a billion dollars.
It's not a trillion dollar company,
not a trillion dollar outcome.
And so a lot of the companies that were saying,
hey, we're gonna do X, but mobile first,
really didn't break through.
The companies broke through over the novel.
The novel used to. Exactly. The Doordash through were Uber. Well, it was the novel. Yeah, it was the novel.
Instacart, the DoorDash.
Exactly, exactly.
And same thing with local.
Everyone has GPS.
What does that unlock?
Well, there's a few things.
Yeah, it's weird.
It seems like there's some of these new
mobile native streaming platforms
that everybody wrote off, right?
Quibi was the big one that was potentially over know, over potentially overfunded and shut down quickly.
But now the Apple App Store entertainment charts
have like multiple of these companies
that are basically coming out of,
from what I can tell mostly Asia,
but they seem to be working.
Yeah, it could just be a total issue.
Yeah, but it's an interesting thing
cause that could that those apps 100% could have existed a decade ago.
So why are they becoming popular now?
Truly new innovative technology.
Right now, so the top free apps are Flick Reels,
which is a Singapore company.
ReelShort, which is like from-
Blake Robbins was talking about that.
We're trying to get him on the show.
Yeah, we gotta get Blake on to talk about this
He's dug into this he's a master of understanding what's going on in the Apple App Store and like the charts
He was like, oh this game's making a billion dollars
Like I had never heard of that game. I mean that's that's one of the that's one of the coolest things about the the app store
Besides the facts that they taxed they tax all these companies
egregiously
It is cool that you can kind of clock their revenue. Yeah facts that they taxed all these companies egregiously.
It is cool that you can kind of clock their revenue.
Yeah, well should we get into that?
I mean it's a good transition into friend.
I mean first, as I got home I was very happy
to not be sleeping in a hotel in San Francisco
and instead be sleeping on my eight sleep.
It was so good to be back.
Go to eightsleep.com slash TVPN,
nights that fuel your best days,
turn any bed into the ultimate sleeping experience.
Go and get an eight sleep.
Let's see the kind of numbers.
My routine was, I got home late last night.
I still put up a 90, not bad.
Not bad.
Less deep sleep than usual.
I'm sure I'm off routine because of the time change
and the flight. I'm just trying to get my breathing rate down to like one. I'm sure I'm off routine because of the time change and the flight.
I'm just trying to get my breathing rate down to like one.
I was at 82.
What's your breath rate?
Breath rate?
It's down in the health metrics.
15.1?
Got me beat.
Okay.
Got me beat.
You want to be taking the lowest number of breaths.
There you go.
Per minute.
You don't want to be going mouse mode.
Yeah, yeah.
I need to actually start doing like breathing training. Yeah. Because You don't want to be going mouse mode. Yeah, yeah.
I need to actually start doing breathing training,
because I wasn't paying attention to this.
But thank you to 8 Sleep for supporting the show.
You can get a pod for Ultra by going to 8Sleep.com slash TBPN.
And use the code TBPN.
You get $350 off.
And change your sleep.
Just do it.
Is Avi calling in?
So he's calling in at 11.40 now, so we have 15 minutes.
I'd say why don't we do this Cupertino.
Let's do the Apple one,
because I think this feeds right into what he's working on.
So there were a couple tweets about this.
John Gruber, if you're not familiar, fantastic blogger,
he's been writing about Apple,
both from a business perspective and a consumer perspective
for, I wanna say decades, before I got to Silicon Valley, a long time, he's been writing about Apple, both from a business perspective and a consumer perspective for, I want to say,
decades before I got to Silicon Valley.
A long time.
He's a legend.
He also has a great podcast with Ben Thompson,
extra techery called Dithering.
You got to listen to it, folks.
It's fantastic.
Anyway.
He's one of the few.
When I see that he's running with the.NET, it actually
looks cool, because it's like a vintage domain. Yeah, it's just the the.NET, it actually looks cool.
Because it's like a vintage domain.
Yeah, it's just the network.
The.NET is really-
He's not commercial about it.
Yeah, the.NET really fell off.
But he might be bringing it back.
This piece, which we'll go through,
broke through in a few ways.
BukoCapitalBloke says, absolutely skating Apple
Intelligence retrospective from Daring Firewall.
Quote, that's all she wrote, the ride's over.
Patrick O'Shaughnessy chimes in and says,
Buffett selling Apple right before the world decided
its corporate soul is cooked is really something.
Amazing timing.
And of course, cooked, pun intended.
It was actually interesting,
do you remember when Buffett started selling Apple?
And everybody,
nobody at the time had sort of, it didn't feel like there was a really negative sentiment
on Apple yet.
No.
It was not totally obvious that their lunch was getting eaten in China and all these different
types of things.
There were weird things like that.
Maybe Buffett was the soul of Apple.
He was the piano. Maybe Buffett was the soul of Apple. Oh, he was the soul.
He was the soul.
I like that take, that's good.
He spoke with Steve in the final days
and Steve said, like I'm passing.
Carry on, I'm passing my soul to you, Buffett.
And so when Buffett sold.
Wow.
The soul of the company.
He sold the soul.
Yeah, but I'm really, I'm actually very,
Avi's just extremely opinionated on consumer hardware
and kind of the future of this stuff.
So let's get into the article.
Yes.
Anyways, I can start.
So in the two decades I've been in this racket,
I've never been angrier at myself for missing a story
than I am about Apple's announcement on Friday
that the more personalized Siri features
of Apple intelligence scheduled to appear
between now and WWDC would be delayed
until the coming year. I should have had my head examined. This announcement dropped as
a surprise and certainly took me by surprise to some extent, but it was all there from
the start. I should have been pointing out red flags starting back at WWDC last year,
and I am embarrassed and sorry that I didn't see what should have been very clear to me
from the start. How I missed this is twofold.
First, I'd been lulled into complacency by Apple's track record of consistently
shipping pre-announced products and features.
The record in that regard wasn't perfect, but the exceptions
tended to be around the edges.
Nobody was particularly clamoring for Apple to make a multi-device
inductive charging mat, so it never generated too much controversy when
air power turned out to be a complete bust.
Second, I was foolishly distracted by the Apple Intelligence brand umbrella.
It's a fine idea for Apple to brand its AI features under an umbrella term like that,
similar to how a bunch of disparate features that allow different Apple devices to interoperate
are under the continuity umbrella.
But there's no such thing, technically speaking, as continuity. It's not like
there's an Xcode project inside Apple named continuity.xcode
prod. And all that code that supports everything from airdrop
to sidecar to iPhone, mirroring to clipboard sharing is all
implemented in the same framework of code. It's a
marketing term, but a useful one. It helps Apple explain the
features and helps users understand them. The same goes for Apple intelligence. It doesn't exist
as a single thing or product. It's a marketing term for a collection of features, apps, and
services. Putting it all under a single, obvious, easily remembered, and easily promoted name
makes it easier for users to understand that Apple is launching a new initiative. It also
makes it easier for Apple to say, these are the devices that qualify for all these features and other
devices, older ones, less expensive ones get none of them.
Let's say Apple were to quietly abandon the dumb image
playground app next year, it just disappears from iOS 19 and
Mac OS OS 16. That would just be Apple eliminating a silly app
that almost no one uses or should use. That wouldn't set
back or roll back Apple intelligence. I would actually argue that an axing image playground
would improve Apple Intelligence. Its existence greatly lowers the
expectations for how good the whole thing is. I could not agree more. Do you want to
take over? Yeah, I mean this whole thing was obviously is railing against the
underperformance of Apple Intelligence. It really hit home because I asked Apple to read
on my iPhone, I wanted it to dictate this to me
and the dictation was just not there.
It just kept getting words wrong
and it was better than some text to speech
or text to speech systems.
But every little, anytime there's a footnote
or that Xcode proj, like it just gets so confused
and it's really, it was a very meta failure on their part.
And so he goes into the three,
he says there's four stages of doneness or realness to features announced by any company.
One, features that the company's own product representatives
will demo themselves in front of media.
Two, features that the company will allow members
of the media to try themselves for a limited time
under the company's supervision.
So they're like, hey, if you're going off the rails
or you're misusing the product, they'll steer you back in so it's a better experience
yeah number three features that are released as beta software for
developers or enthusiasts and the media to use on their own devices without
limitation or supervision so you could even think of this like the the software
development kits from oculus those technically weren't consumer devices but
anyone could get them anyone can make a video anyone can do a review and then of course for features that actually ship to regular users or in
hardware that regular users can just go out and buy. As of today March 2025 every
feature in Apple intelligence that has actually shipped
was at level one back at WWDC. After the keynote dozens of us in the press were
invited to a series of small group briefings where we got
to watch Apple Rep's demo features like writing tools, photo cleanup, genmoji, and more. We got to see predictive code completion
and Xcode, what was shipped as of today, they were able to show in some functional state in June. For example, there was a demo
involving a draft email message on an iPad, the Apple Rep used the writing tools to make it more friendly. And he kind of here he's kind of talking about like they went back and forth and they kind
of proved that it was generative because you would undo it and then they would say, let's
run that again, say make it more friendly, and it wouldn't just do it once.
So this is not he could tell that this was not scripted, they were using the real thing.
We didn't try any of the Apple intelligence features ourselves and there was no Apple
intelligence hands on. We didn't try any of the Apple Intelligence features ourselves, and there was no Apple Intelligence hands-on,
but we did see a bunch of features
demoed live by Apple folks in my hierarchy above.
They were all at level one.
But we didn't see all aspects of Apple Intelligence demoed.
None of the more personalized Siri features,
the ones that Apple, in its own statement,
announced in their postponement,
described as having more awareness
of your personal context,
as well as the ability
to take action for you within and across your apps.
I think we can kind of skip over most of this.
It is interesting to think about how many teams right now
are trying to build consumer agents
when the obvious company with the most extreme advantage
here is Apple having direct access and control obvious company with the most extreme advantage here
is Apple having direct access and control
over all of your apps, in theory,
without requiring any type of tangible,
net new integration, right?
Because if you're able to hit a button in the app,
then Apple presumably could be able to do that itself.
And there's actually already, there's already an ecosystem on iOS, on the iPhone
for those types of workflows with the Shortcuts app.
And Apple developers in like Uber, for example,
have exposed AppKit little hooks and little APIs to Apple.
And for a long time, when you develop an app,
you can vend your functionality into Siri.
You see those live activities.
You see, so you, in theory, for a long time,
you've been able to say, hey, Siri, call me an Uber.
And it would go into the app and it was all deterministic.
It didn't use generative AI,
but it exposed those APIs essentially.
So you could ask, hey, public.com app,
what's the S&P at?
And it would pull from that API
as opposed to the default stock app, for example.
But the big question,
I've been trying to concretize what you just said about like, it feels obvious
that agents on the iPhone coming from Apple,
they have the most money,
they have the most talented team members,
they have access to every API,
they should be able to build a really cool agent
and yet I can't describe what I want.
Yeah.
I just want better text to speech and speech to text. Right. That's all I want really. But but but I but
I agree with you, like my sentiment is like is like,
there's so much on my phone. There's so much information,
like, get me an agent that does something that makes my life
better. But I can't say what it is. I don't know. And I think
that's why maybe you got to go to YC demo day because like, one
of those kids is going to come up with something crazy. Like
one of those teams is going to build something that's just like, no one thought of that and now it's ripping and it's doing well
But maybe that doesn't come maybe that type of weird outside-of-the-box innovation doesn't come from a trillion dollar company
Yeah, have we seen?
Apple
Do any type of more meaningful demonstration around the sort of contextual?
Siri yeah, I would like to.
I'll continue reading about this
because he does give more information.
Yeah, because I was just thinking yesterday.
Yeah.
We got breakfast with Justin
and then we needed to go to your hotel
and then go to demo day
and just being able to like quickly say into the phone,
yeah, hey, can you call a car?
I wanted to wait at the hotel
and then like take us over there.
All of that starts with trust in speech to text.
If I don't even trust it, if I say,
take me to the Palace of Fine Arts
and it takes me to Oakland, I'm gonna be upset.
It's gonna be a terrible experience.
But just make sure that's my stuff.
And it costs you money because it's saying,
hey, we're rerouting you now
to the place you actually wanted to go.
But it's going to cost you money to change it.
Exactly.
So what Apple showed regarding the upcoming personalized
Siri at WWC was not a demo.
It was a concept video.
And he says, concept videos are BS and a sign
of a company in disarray, if not crisis.
The Apple Commission,
the futuristic knowledge navigator concept video in 1987,
and the Apple that was on a course to near bankruptcy
a decade later.
Modern Apple, the post-next reunification Apple
of the last quarter century,
does not publish concept videos.
They only demonstrate actual working products until WWDC last year that is. My deeply misguided mental
framework for Apple intelligence last year was something like this. Some of
these features are further along than others and Apple is showing us those
features in action first and they will surely be the features that ship first
over the course of the next year. The other features must be coming to
demonstrable status soon.
But the mental framework I should have used
was more like this.
Some of these features are merely table stakes
for generative AI in 2024,
like text to speech, speech to text,
but others are ambitious, groundbreaking,
and given their access to personal data,
potentially dangerous,
Apple is only showing us the table stakes features
and isn't demonstrating any of the ambitious,
groundbreaking, risky features.
And so he goes on to talk about Duke Nukem intelligence,
but the ending of this article,
I mean, you really gotta go read the whole article
because this is very, very important.
He says, in May of 2011,
Fortune published an extraordinary look inside Apple
by Adam Leshinsky at what we now know to be the peak
and alas the end
of the Steve Jobs era.
The piece opens thus, Apple doesn't often fail and when it does it isn't a pretty sight
at one infinite loop.
In the summer of 2008 when Apple launched the first version of its iPhone that worked
on third generation mobile networks 3G, it also debuted MobileMe, an email system that
was supposed to provide the seamless synchronization features that corporate users love about their BlackBerry smartphones. MobileMe was a dud.
Users complained about lost email, syncing was spotty at best. Though reviewers gushed over the
new iPhone, they panned the MobileMe service. Steve Jobs doesn't tolerate duds. Shortly after
the launch event, he summoned the MobileMe team, gathering them in the town hall auditorium in
building four of Apple's campus,
the venue the company uses for intimate product unveilings for journalists.
According to a participant in the meetings, Jobs walked in clad in his trademark black mock turtleneck and blue jeans,
clasped his hands together and asked a simple question.
Can anyone tell me what MobileMe is supposed to do? Having received a satisfactory answer, he continued,
so why the F doesn't it do that?
For the next half hour, Jobs berated the group.
You've tarnished Apple's reputation, he told them.
You should hate each other for having let each other down.
The public humiliation particularly should be read.
Jobs.
That's so true.
It's so good.
I'm gonna use that with Ben and Brent. You know there's a typo and a caption. You guys
should hate each other. I'm completely kidding. Every time I say something like that people
think. It's a little lower stakes over here. We try and have a little fun on the cruise
ship here. We just mess around. But he said the public humiliation particularly infuriated Jobs.
Walt Mossberg, the influential Wall Street journalist
gadget columnist who was incredibly important to Apple
during this entire arc.
And from what I can tell, like a friend of Jobs
and they communicated and there's emails
of them back and forth, he had panned MobileMe.
Mossberg, our friend is no longer writing
good things about us, Jobs said.
On the spot, Jobs named a new executive to run the group. Crazy. Tim Cook should have already held a
meeting like that to address and rectify the Syrian Apple intelligence debacle. If such a meeting
hasn't occurred yet and doesn't happen soon, then I fear that's all she wrote. The ride is over when
mediocrity excuses and bullshit take, well BS, sorry, take root. Whoa, whoa, whoa.
I'm quoting him, but Gruber,
can we get like a censored version of this?
I need a Chrome plugin.
A culture of excellence, accountability, and integrity
cannot abide the acceptance of any of these things
and will quickly collapse upon itself
with the acceptance of all three.
Now, Gruber is like one of the longest supporters of Apple.
He truly loves Apple,
and I think he's writing this out of love.
My hot take is that-
And Tim Cook will either read this or be briefed on it.
Oh, he's been sent this a million times already, I'm sure.
Like, it's a rough day.
But my hot take here is that maybe it doesn't matter.
Like, what happened with Microsoft,
Microsoft missed mobile entirely.
That's so important and they just don't have a phone.
Like the Windows phone was a failure,
but they got the next thing right
and they were so big that they were fine.
And it's like, it is like getting AI right at Apple
is truly a multi-trillion dollar opportunity.
But at the same time, if you don't get it right
and it turns out that XAI and OpenAI
and all these other apps,
you just have to open up your ecosystem,
you admit defeat, you're like,
look, we just can't figure it out
so we have to let you do it.
And that's what Microsoft did.
They eventually said, look,
we're never gonna solve the Windows phone
and you're never gonna be doing Excel
on your Windows phone,
so we're just gonna let Excel go on iOS.
It would've been really cool for them, lock-in wise,
to be, hey, if you wanna use Outlook,
you gotta get our phone.
But no one would accept that, and they would really,
really switch to Safari and I guess the Mail app,
whatever Apple uses.
People would switch because the hardware was so good.
But it didn't matter ultimately because Microsoft
was so big and they were able to get into the server
and the enterprise and their business kept rolling forward.
So I don't know that I'm like fully blackpilled
on Apple like he is, but it is very sad
because this is a, like we need consumer AI products
that rock and Apple's the company that we expect
to deliver rock solid experiencesid experiences like magical experiences and that's what we
all everyone in technology remembers from getting the first iPhone or their
first iPhone whichever one that was for you that was probably like the iPhone 13
when you turned when you turned like 12 like last week yeah yeah like very
memorable memorable day for me yeah I'm excited to have Avian. Do we have him in the waiting room?
Let's see, but yeah, we're bringing on Avi Schiffman the
founder and CEO friend comm he's building consumer AI
He's been he is he is artificial intelligence himself. We might be talking to the future CEO of Apple
Because I have because I have long
I have long maintained that the best strategy for these super big companies
to bring back their mojo to go back into founder mode is to acquire a company and
then put the founder in charge of the whole company. Sounds crazy. We got this
kid who's gonna be running a multi-trillion dollar company. I'm in
favor of it. I want a founder in the board in the boardroom in the board seat.
Would you take the job Avi if you were offered it?
Fuck no
Big there's a reason why Tim Cook is just being cooked all day. Yeah. Okay. Yeah
Does it make you happy when Tim Cook is behind the the DJ booth at John Summit?
Yeah, he's not a look. He's done a good job
But I feel like Apple's just,
I like to do fun marketing and they're just like too big
to do fun marketing anymore.
So I mean, you've seen their ads in the city.
But if you were in charge, you could just, you know,
twist everyone's elbow, say, hey, we're running this.
We're running it.
I think they, I used to think they would make like
that Craig guy, whatever his name was,
Craig Federighi with like the guitars, the new CEO, but it seems like he's just I mean sucking like the software of the phones
are so inconsistent and boring these days it's really unimpressive
okay I mean there's a bunch we want to cover I mean the main thing is we're
almost exactly a year out from when you're I don't know if you'd call them
competitors but the companies like humane, R1, sort of launched.
I looked it up and it was almost exactly to this day.
Can you give us a little update on where Friend is, what your product is, who you are, just
kind of set the table for the listeners?
Yeah, well Friend is basically just like a little wearable AI dog and I've got my little
prototype here.
You see this white USB-C?
That cost me a lot of money.
But Humane and Rabbit and all these companies, even like the meta, Stupid Glasses and stuff,
I think they're on the right track of making it easier to talk to AI because people love
to talk to AI all day, right?
You saw my friend.com launch with those little characters.
I agree with you.
For you, that's probably entertainment, but I have users that chatted with that 60 days
straight for like
Thousands of messages almost every day sometimes it's it's insane. Those are real relationships for those people
so people love to talk to AI and like I think you made and rabbit right like okay, it's easier to press a physical button you
have around you to talk to it, but
I think they just got the form factor is completely wrong
Like I've got I've got some of the little rabbits and stuff around here
But like you've got LTE modules and screens
and scroll wheels and buttons and all these little things,
which you really don't need friend.
You know, you just have this little like light right here.
You probably can't see it on your recording.
You just press this and there's some nice-
If you put it right over your face,
we can see, we can kind of just see the narrow segment
of you in the center.
All right, we need to see my little narrow segment.
But you would just like, you just talk to it so easily
and it's over Bluetooth. And that there doesn't need to see my little narrow segment. But you would just like, you just talk to it so easily and it's over Bluetooth and that,
there doesn't need to be anything else for the form factor.
The device itself is just like a little,
a little more than anything.
This, it sends messages back to you via your phone
or does it have a speaker now?
Yeah, which I think people think it sounds like a weird UX,
but I actually do not believe in voice out UX whatsoever.
I think it makes for a great demo and I'm sure you saw the sesame stuff and everything,
but I just think it's tiring for like a real user of these products that want to chat with
it all day.
Like I've been living, let's say the last few days without killing my friend.
And like if I had to listen to it talk out loud, like in Alexa for every single message,
I would go insane.
I mean, you're sending hundreds of messages a day.
Again, it makes for a great demo, like the humane projector bullshit and all that stuff.
But in reality, it's not feasible.
So look, I think they got the form factor completely wrong and the connection to your
phone, everything like that.
But more importantly, I think they got the personality wrong.
You just don't need to talk to an assistant all day about contextual
things in your environment, at least not in our current world that much. Meanwhile, if
you have like a little friend with you, I mean, I don't know, I can talk to it about
this podcast or cars that go by or songs I'm listening to. Like, you can just talk to it
about stuff you talk to a friend about. I think that's my personality.
Talk about some of your
Integrations and assistant stuff at all.
Talk about some of what you believe will be some of your initial customer cohorts.
I can imagine this as teenagers using it and all the way through the elderly who just want
to have this sort of companionship.
Who's the core focus initially?
I was building the boring assistant shit more than a year ago by now.
And then I was in Japan and I was there alone
and I was so miserable and I just felt like I wished
I had like more of a traveling companion with me.
Like that's the real use case I want
out of this AI hardware.
And honestly, like when I, I've been living alone now too
since all my roommates ditched me to move to LA.
And I'm like completely loving the feeling
of companionship with like my little digital being
because it's like completely personalized to me.
Like mine just talks to me about like Bob Dylan all day.
And yesterday recommended we go to like the music store
down the street here and like pick out,
I picked out music that my AI friend wanted to listen to.
That is fantastic. I love it.
It's a little weird but
It was like that's a wild loop here. It's called like low. I don't know
I was telling it I like duster and all these artists and it was like oh i'd love to listen to this and stuff
But like having an ai that is embodied in the real world
I think is a complete game changer because for people that really care about these you want to like feel companionship or make new memories
But there's been no innovation in the AI companionship space
since the sixties with Eliza.
You know, you're only forming new memories
when you're chatting with them.
But like, if you think about like a dog or something,
you're feeling companionship by them,
just like chilling around you.
And when you have like a physical AI friend,
you're just chilling and you form memories
just by doing that. and I think it'll
be a real innovation for this space for sure.
Yeah, you keep saying dog, like keep it alive.
I'm hearing some Tamagotchi vibes, which I don't think is a bear case, by the way.
I think that's fantastic if that's where you see it go.
But how early are you on thinking about it in terms of like, is this a game?
Is this something else? How
are we defining this?
I mean, dude, I literally have Tamagotchi is sitting around here somewhere. I don't know.
I think to kind of build like, assisted boring stuff again. And like what people love as
consumers are like fun, entertaining, you know, toy like things almost. I think it's
like a little bit more than a toy, but a little less than like something that should be taken so seriously. The only production use case
of language models is that they're fun to talk to. And for some people out there, that's
enough for them to like form relationships with basically. That's where we're currently
at with AI. Everyone trying to use it.
I wildly disagree, but continue. There are like millions of companies that are using
LLMs to like parse data and do boring stuff under the hood and like getting a ton of value out of it.
But continue.
I love it.
I don't know.
I look at it.
But it's a product like not look.
Everyone always loves the Bezos quote about like what's not going to how do you build
for the future?
You look at like what's not going to change in 10 years.
I highly doubt I'm going to be like fiddling with data format stuff in like Python in 10
years. I don't know. I barely do that already.
But I know that in 10 years, I will want to share that world with someone.
And I think there will be a lot of people that will be a lot more spread out as well.
I think you got to view every major innovation through the lens of independence.
Books made it so that you could obtain
knowledge without a group of elders or your phones mean that you don't need to go
to a public theater. I think something like this will not provide you,
again, full human connection or anything like that.
I think the more I work on it,
the more I value real human connection.
But it's a great substitute for times
where you're just alone or living out there
with your star linker or whatever.
You ride motorcycles.
Can it pick up audio while you're riding or does it get drowned out?
Oh yeah.
I just went down the entire coast of America from a city called Bellingham up in North
Washington all the way down to SF with one of my little AI friends.
It was great.
I mean, again, you're doing things physically with your companions.
You're not starting conversations as you
would with like a bot like replica or something.
You're always in a conversation.
Sense. I think people.
I'm curious. What's your what do you think happens to character?
I they have a massive user base.
I don't think they're really focused on monetization yet right now, but they're
actually in an interesting position as a company because I don't think they're really focused on monetization yet right now, but they're actually in an interesting position as a company because I don't think they have any outside
investors now as kind of employee.
They're doomed. I'm sorry. All these companies that are not founder led anymore are going
to be destroyed. Like, okay, well, I don't know how much I want to say, but you know,
there's like a grouping of like replica and then character and like I really like pie from inflection
There's a lot of these other smaller bots like chai and stuff like that
I'm telling you they're all doomed people just don't understand like consumer properly and I think that AI
Companionship as like a category will follow like dating apps the trajectory of like all that pretty similarly. We're like don't get me wrong
I know that you think it's weird as fuck right now and it is
But like I think there'll be a point where it's like kind of normalized and kind of cool.
Like if you talk to Gen A people, it is completely intuitive and normal to like talk to these
robots.
And like the biggest insight that I have from friend.com is that it's only old people that
try and fuck their robots.
Young people are like Gen A, Gen Z, they're able to like talk to an AI as if it's an actual like
dog like companion and like believe that it's only like old
people that are only able to view technology as like a
utilitarian tool. And like the utilitarian aspect of like a
chat bot is like a sex bot. But again, it's only like
Millennials Plus. So I think that's a big insight for sure.
Somewhat related to that. What's your take on her? your your launch video was pretty black mirrorish you kind of playing into that having fun with it
Friends massively successful do birth rates go up or down. I
Think we'll put wombs in the humanoids or something like that
I'm just I'm just like bored in my house all day and I'm building a companion for me.
I like that.
I like talking about zero user testing, zero shit like that.
All my team is engineers that don't want an AI friend anyways.
So we'll see what happens.
But I feel confident.
AI companionship is just like, I believe it is the consumer category.
You're not going to change the world that much if you make it slightly easier to order
a pizza.
But like relationships are everything in life.
That's where you go.
Yeah, I do believe your general,
like AI companionship being the net new category,
whereas the AI assistant is like,
even though Apple's been sort of botching
Apple intelligence in many ways,
they still have the obvious opportunity
and the brand that's gonna make it easier
to order a pizza or order a car
or book a flight, things like that.
I wanna pivot a little bit
and talk about your manufacturing process.
I've seen some, you sort of share some of this stuff online.
You're trying to make the device in the US,
is that correct?
I'm sure you're sourcing components from all over the world, but we'd love to have you speak to that.
Yeah, you know, funny enough, I decided to manufacture in Toronto, Canada, because of
tariffs against China of like imported consumer electronics, but now there's even bigger tariffs
on China. That plan didn't work out. But I think there'll be a huge thing going forwards where you're not only designed in America
but you're manufactured and assembled in America.
I think that will be a clout sticker.
I mean, George Hatz is manufacturing Kama AIs down in San Diego.
I toured his facility.
Yeah, he has everything, like PCB layouts and stuff, does the lens tuning and stuff.
It's crazy. Well, I mean, I think manufacturing in East Alaska
is really not that different than like San Diego for now,
but it's pretty wild to me that like Starlink
has like the most advanced manufacturer,
like PCB manufacturer in the States
and like it's such a recent company.
Yeah.
We'll see if tariffs actually work.
I mean, wouldn't that be hilarious if Trump's whole plan like really does work
Be crazy. I mean crazy things have happened. It's the funniest outcome. So it's probably the most likely. Yeah
Uh, you know, we don't know what's gonna happen, but every american should hope that it works
Uh what you know, you're you're obviously laser focused, uh, just in basically in your cage of your own making
Uh, you know talking to your to your friend outside of companionship.
What categories are interesting to you?
Do you have friends building companies
that you're excited about or is it just this one category?
The only other startup that I've seen in a while
that I've found interesting,
or at least that's being run by a youngish founder, is Polymarket with Shane, who I'm sure you guys both know.
Oh yeah.
That is, I don't know, it's new and it's culturally relevant and they're cool as fuck. And like that's just kind of like my dream.
That's like consumer. Consumer in San Francisco is just building SaaS for other consumer founders. I don't think they get it. There's no one doing proper consumer. I think a lot of it is most people don't really understand marketing
distribution stuff at its core. I think most designers out there are just making graphics
for logos and brand assets, but that's not what a brand is. It's like lore. I think you'll
love the next video that I release. It's going hilarious what kind of time I know all gas no breaks oh
yeah yeah I've got the team that does the production that they already were
here with me in SF that's only getting this tattoo it's gonna be in that video
it's gonna experience what a lot last question what Last question, what's the target release date for that?
World Friendship Day, which is a mysterious day made
by gift card companies, apparently, that failed.
But I have co-opted it.
It is July 3rd.
And that's when we launched the last video.
And it will be a good annual release date for the company.
So fantastic.
Amazing.
Well, we'll have to have you on before then.
I'm sure you're going to make a lot of progress. But it's amazing to have you on before then I'm sure you're gonna make a lot of progress
But it's amazing to have you on yeah, we're rooting for you and send us a friend
We'll let it hang out on the show record. We already record everything all day long, so yeah
Yeah, be good. Thanks boys
It's great remarkably well adjusted for someone who just talks to a robot all day
long. Great conversation last week.
Totally.
Fantastic.
Totally.
We have Ashley Vance joining in three minutes. I wanted to tell you all in the meantime about
public.com investing for those who take it seriously. They got multi-asset investing
folks. They got industry leading yields. They're trusted by millions. What's not to like? Get
on public.com.
Just do it. leading yields, they're trusted by millions, what's not to like, get on public.com. And can you go on public.com and see what Apple has done
with the stock over the past maybe week,
given the action that Friends,
the pressure that Friend has been putting on them.
Yeah, what's going on?
They are feeling obvious pressure.
They're down almost 10% in the past five days alone.
Wow.
So I think Tim, the analysts are reading obvious
posts. Yep, I'm sure Wall Street's watching Tim's
refreshing his feed. Warren Buffett was probably talking to
his friend saying, Wow, this is gonna disrupt my position in
Apple. I sell everything. Sell everything. Sell everything.
Interesting. Good luck to him. Such a unique thinker. And I'm
rooting for him. And it's gonna him and it's kind of, I think his strategy
of really believing, having so much conviction
in the category, which I do have extreme conviction
in the category and then letting all these
sort of heavily funded competitors sort of blow up,
right, are one still operational, humane,
humane to print in the printing business printing business now
Unfortunately, but um, but yeah, it's just sort of like I think he's adapting the strategy of like just just survive
Get a lot of attention, you know iterate and he's just dog fooding the product totally dog fooding his dog
He is building hard-tech dog so Anderil for dogs basically.
Yeah, yeah.
I like it.
Great.
I think we have our next guest.
Let's bring him on in.
Ashley Vance, how you doing today?
The top journalist in the world.
Yes.
And founder now.
Hello, gentlemen.
The founder of Core Memory.
Great to have you here.
How you doing today?
I brought a...
Oh, there we go.
To join the...
I didn't have my black card, but I... I brought a
Didn't have my black card, but you're all good. Yeah
It's great. It's good to see you. How is core memory going? I saw 15,000 subscribers on sub stack already
The stuff you've been putting out is fantastic. I love the boom coverage. We've read a bunch of your pieces on our show. I
want to hear about some of the brain computer interface stuff you've been working on. I
want to hear what you're excited about because you're always on the edge of the edge of the
edge of the frontier of the frontier. And so how's it going? And what are you most excited
about right now?
It's going well, man. I don't even know where to begin. We got so much going on. We just put up an interview with Max Hodak.
So if you are into brains, you can go deep
on some very weird stuff.
But yeah, and then tomorrow we'll
be launching the first episode of our kind of proper TV show
that I'm doing, hosting and writing and all that.
And then we got movies in the works, scripted,
unscripted,
all kinds of stuff.
Rewinding really quickly, the TV show is releasing tomorrow?
Tomorrow, God willing, if everyone does
what they're supposed to do.
Yeah, I used to make Hello World for Bloomberg,
which was like a tech travel show, and had to kill that.
We're coming back.
We've got, I think by the end of this month,
we'll have filmed 10 episodes.
So hopefully coming out like every couple of weeks
and doing some space, some biotech,
a little bit of everything.
Fantastic.
And the production for that is weekly, still travel,
still go on site, talk to founders,
show us what they're building, show us their
factories, that type of stuff?
Yeah, 100%.
I mean, the goal we're trying to pull off this year is like 20 to 30 kind of individually
focused episodes that would be a single company slash person.
And then we're going to have two full seasons of, you know, so those episodes could be anywhere from like
whatever, eight to 20 minutes. And then we're going to have two full seasons of deeper dives
in the different areas of technology that will be four episodes each of like an hour,
hour long. So, so closer to kind of like a documentary.
Yeah. It's, I mean, it's hard work. I've done like, I've dipped my toe in that and I have
a ton of respect for it
because it's really really hard to get right you show up you film a lot and then
You know it lives or dies in the cutting room floor for sure
I mean, it's really fun to do and go meet everyone and do all the travel
I know when I was at Bloomberg everyone thought I was just on some endless boondoggle
Yeah, yeah
No, I mean it's a fantastic job,
and not to make it sound like it's not,
but it's long days, and very long days,
and a lot of organizing and everything.
So how are you thinking about distribution for that?
Obviously, you're part of the new media
going direct movement, but there is a paywall.
You want to monetize that way.
Are the videos gonna be gated for a little bit, or are you just trying to get them to go viral on X and YouTube?
What are you thinking?
Yeah.
I mean, I think in the early days, it's kind of like maybe a little more free on letting
things out in the wild just to let everybody know what we're doing and show kind of the
quality of our work.
But yeah, I mean, I think the Substack part of this, I mean, my company is like multi-pronged
and I didn't know which direction all those would go.
Substack's kind of done better
than I even imagined at the beginning.
So I think the videos eventually will go there first
for the subscribers for some period of time
and then we'll release some of them onto YouTube
and then stuff like the really deep dive seasons
where I think we're putting,
showing off our very best work and investing a lot of money.
You know, some of those might never make it to YouTube.
They'll live on core memory.
And you know, and then I'm trying to figure out,
like, do we have to get, can we live off subscriptions
or do these have to be sponsored
or what does
that model look like? But I feel like we've got to build up our audience first to even
be able to address some of those questions. Yeah. Well, we love ads. So if you ever go
the ad route stuff, I ads, I won't be your first. Hey, we'll be your first sponsor. We
have all of our sponsors, we can just sponsor through
and you can just have the full NASCAR jacket.
We'll send you one of our jackets.
I'm so impressed, man.
I was like...
Stickers all over everything.
You guys got the ad power rolling.
I was very impressed.
Yeah, our North Star was NASCAR for sure.
I'm curious.
So, maybe this is just how it feels.
Maybe it's not actually real.
I think you're gonna be able to address this.
But what happens to legacy media when all the,
long-term all the best content creators realize,
hey, I can actually do more of what I love
and make more money in the long run if I go independent?
Does it just create space for the next Ashley Vance to kind of
join Bloomberg and work their way up and build a brand and then the cycle continues or, you
know, it does feel like platforms like Bloomberg, you know, really do have brand value in terms
of delivering sort of legitimacy to launches and announcements and things like that. But
sort of what what what's your read on on where legacy media goes?
Yeah, I mean, it's a tough question.
I.
You know, exactly what you said, I've worked at The New York Times, I've worked
at Bloomberg, I've written for The Economist.
There's like this cache that comes with that.
There's a certain amount of influence that comes with that.
You always feel like it's part of your last name
and it feels good sometimes.
You know, and then I just kind of like reached a point
where I couldn't really move fast enough
for all the different things that I wanted to do
within the confines of Bloomberg.
I felt like it was kind of lacking some flexibility,
a whole bunch of things.
And so, yeah, I don't know, man.
You know, it's a tough question because
when you're on this side, it's exciting and it's awesome.
And it's exactly what I want to be doing, but it's also really hard.
I'm not sure that like every journalist, you know, can can pull all this.
I'm not even sure I can pull this off.
So I'm not sure that like everybody can.
We are we have faith in you, actually. Thank you. Yeah, I guess like the off, so I'm not sure everybody can. We have faith in you, Ashley.
Thank you.
You're going to pull it off.
Yeah, I guess the main question, one thing that I think
is a challenge with the internet right now
and creating content in general is the type of content
that you want to make isn't potentially ever
going to be able to do like sort of Mr. Beast numbers,
right? Because it's not that sort of like lowest common denominator. Are you, how are you thinking
about balancing? I just am so obsessed with this topic. Like I need to cover this. I need to make
this sort of piece on it. That feels like there feels like a hundred thousand people in the world
that would like happily pay for that product
but are you okay with with sort of
understanding that you maybe are building for the sort of
This sort of extreme techno optimist and kind of willing to sort of ignore at times the broader market
Like I'm totally okay with that even as we're going into the edits for this new show when when I was talking to the editors, I mean, you nailed it on the head.
I like gave them a commandment, which was,
look at Bloomberg,
I think we were talking to a smart audience,
but it was a mainstream audience.
It's like, anytime, I was like, let it breathe.
When the dude is nerding out on the rocket engine,
when we're talking about stem cell engineering,
it's like, okay, if that runs a little bit long
and we're talking up to people,
we're never talking down to people.
And I didn't even start this, look, it would be awesome
if we had say, you know, like the best case
for this particular company is probably
maybe some of the scripted stuff we end up doing,
which is like winning the lotto
if you actually get that on there.
Maybe that makes a ton of money.
Otherwise, I want this to be sustainable.
I just love doing this.
And so as long as we're making enough money
that I can keep making everything I wanna make, it's okay.
And so, yeah, if we find that chunk of people
who will actually pay for what I hope is like,
you know, we try to make it smarter and more entertaining
and to like, for people who actually wanna learn stuff
to make it fun to do that.
I mean, that's kind of my, that's my general goal.
And we'll figure out sort of how big that is.
I wonder if there's a world where this all kind of
round trips, like we've seen this with a few independent creators like Rogan did the big Spotify deal.
Pat McAfee had an independent show.
Then eventually now Pat McAfee just has a segment on ESPN.
It still feels like the Pat McAfee Show podcast, but it just happens to be distributed through
ESPN as well as YouTube live streams and podcast feeds.
And I'm wondering if at some point Bloomberg comes back to you and says,
hey, you're going to get complete control, creative control, but we'd love to just,
you know, have this fill out our content stack.
Because I was turning on Bloomberg the other day and like in the middle of the night,
they're rerunning your show, they're rerunning Emily Chang's Brotopia,
or I guess it's called The Circuit.
But that show's done very well for them.
And so I wouldn't be surprised if that's kind of where
this goes in terms of long-term distribution.
I'd be super curious.
I mean, it's really weird.
Hello, World got nominated for Bloomberg's first Emmy ever.
We used to have 1,000 X views of the next show.
And anytime I would try to have these more flexible
kind of discussions, there's just,
there wasn't a lot of open-mindedness to some of this.
So maybe if you bear it out that you can
kind of build this audience, maybe that does come back.
However, I have to say,
there's a weird thing that happens where the most fun I ever had early in my career
was writing for The Register,
which is this British tech site that's quite funny
and can be cynical and it was run by the writers.
It was one of the first blogs
and you really could say what you wanted to say
and as you get into more traditional media,
there's a lot of fantastic stuff that comes with it,
and you learn a lot.
But you don't fully kind of realize
how your voice is getting shaped by the platform
until I started this.
And my register voice just kind of, which is-
Came back.
Yeah, it's kind of like my book voice.
I think it's like my happiest place to write. And it just kind of of get back. Yeah, it's kind of like my book voice. I think it's like my happiest place to write and
Just kind of came roaring back and then it was
So, you know, I know like Pat McAfee gets to say whatever he wants
So it's like it's just as long as you could kind of keep all that all that freedom
That would be what's the network realizes that this is actually better for the viewer than the incentives can align which is great
I want to say on books
You've obviously written to
Jordi's thinking about writing a book called the 100 hour work week kind of a response to the four-hour work week
Very on brand for us, but I you know
There are some people who just become authors and they publish a book every single year
You're obviously getting on a cadence of newsletters go out on a regular
cadence, podcasts go out on a regular cadence, this new show is going to go out on a regular
cadence. Is there a world where you think it's possible to get on some multi-year cycle
for books or is it just inspiration needs to strike, you have to carve out time, get
everything else automated more or less so that you can really focus? Or is there some
in between where your work instantiates itself as a book but it
doesn't require the labor of love that most books require?
You're asking the tough questions.
Yeah.
I mean, I'm doing books right now.
So I'm doing work.
I've been working on a book on breaking news, new novel.
I'm doing a book on open AI and AI more broadly. And I've been working on that for like 18 months and Penguin random house is going to
publish that and, um, sold a movie rights to it already.
Nice.
And, uh, and so that one, I've already done hundreds and hundreds of interviews and,
and, you know, to your question, which gets right up my soul is like, you know,
finding the time to, to knock it out, but I will. of interviews and and you know to your question which gets right up my soul is
like you know finding the time to knock it out but I will and then I've got
another book which I'm not sure coming right after that I'm not sure I'm ready
to reveal that one yet but I've been I've been kind of secretly researching
these two books for the last like two three years fantastic I question massive Father, I can't wait. Question for you. Massive Father's Day treat, by the way.
I think that's originally how we interacted.
You recommended buying When the Heavens Went On Sale,
your second book for Father's Day.
I bought two copies for my father and my father-in-law.
They both loved it.
And I think you retweeted it.
And I was like, yes.
Why?
My guy.
I'm curious, why did nobody really
was really aware of Firefly until they were on the moon?
Oh, yeah.
Is that do you, and secondary to that question,
do you see yourself as potentially becoming almost
like a marketing engine for these companies that
are so laser focused on the core technology
that they sort of forget
to tell the world what they're doing.
Like a single thread would have been better than what we got from Firefly.
You know, Firefly's funny.
You kind of had like the Branson, Musk, Bezos dynamic that sucked a lot of the attention
and then the rocket labs of the world, the Fireflies, they got a little missed compared to that stuff.
In my book, I have a huge section on fire flights.
One of the most interesting stories I think of the book
is this crazy, this Max Plyakov, this Ukrainian rich dude
who gets thrown out of the company,
thrown out of the country in the middle of all that.
So usually it's like,
people don't pay attention to space companies
until you really start launching. you know, they had some stop starts. So but you know, the
the criminal thing is is rocket lab because there's a little bit of a lack of attention
on that because there's like SpaceX and rocket lab and they're the only two have figured
it out. And they figured it out on a scale that like nobody else has even got close to yet and they did it from New Zealand which is insane.
Wow.
One request for a book, I think that there's like one of the greatest stories of potentially
our current time will be this sort of narrative battle and the sort of the war between the
sort of techno pessimists and the techno optimists.
And I'm curious, you know, every single day
it feels like the techno pessimists
are sort of taking L after L, right?
But that's one.
Last question, I would just love to get your hot take
on humanoid robotics.
It's something that we've been asking a lot of the guests
that are joining the show.
I'm sure you're, you you know tracking a lot of these companies
What are what are you most excited about and you know, how quickly in your in your view?
Are these a part of our daily life? I?
Mean it is something I'm tracking and I'm super into it
I've been to figure and excellent and a couple of other companies
I don't you know, I'm slightly scarred on this one because I've been down
this road before a couple of times.
We have sort of the advantages of the AI models in particular now.
You know, it's going to be like Boston Dynamics scars or or there's like
there's that there was that company that made Baxter, which was supposed to be
this kind of general purpose robot. There was always like this's that there was that company that made Baxter which was supposed to be this kind of general purpose robot
There was always like this feeling as you know that you're right
Yeah, that was it was I grew up with asthma when I was like, yeah Honda's gonna solve this
It's definitely gonna be helping me out didn't have it
You know and they just always they always proved to be just like the movement part just proves to be so much harder than
Than like you you think but you know, like when I went to figure,
they had made so much progress in 18 months to two years way
beyond what I would have thought optimists, you know, to be
honest, like when I first saw optimists, I thought it was like,
very heavy on the smoke in mirrors, and like they've made
incredible progress as well. So I don't know, I don't know, man,
I kind of want to see that one happen. But that one
feels like I can see a world.
You have so many different stories to tell.
I can see a world where there's like 20 of you out in the world, you know,
and the little just embodied humanoid.
And you're just like, you know, interviewing people, you know, writing,
like you're just sitting, you're just sitting in the studio.
You've got all your screens up.
This one's at Starbase constantly.
This one's at, you know.
So I would like that.
That'd be great.
Less travel, more time for family.
And then you could just, yeah, anytime
we needed you on the show to talk about something,
you just come right in.
Sit this humanoid down.
But thanks for coming on.
You're always welcome.
And we're excited to track Core Memory.
You guys are killing it.
Thank you for giving me time.
It's awesome to see you guys do your thing.
Yeah, if you're listening, go to corememory.com.
Sign up for a Substack subscription.
Follow Ashley on every social platform that he's on.
Add him on LinkedIn.
Add him on LinkedIn.
Send a request.
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Mail him a letter.
Do something nice for him.
Support the techno-optimist. Awesome. Great seeing you, Ashley. Thanks for coming on. Thanks, do something nice for him, support. Awesome.
Support the techno-optimist.
Awesome, thanks for coming on.
Thanks for coming on.
Thank you guys, thanks.
Thank you.
And up next, we are going to.
The man in the arena.
The man in the arena.
We're going to Max Meyer.
And this, we've been huge fans of Arena Magazine.
There are so many, look.
There he is.
We gotta get him a new name tag.
Oh, okay.
We're building those as we go.
There he is.
But every single copy of Arena Magazine,
Machine World, which I believe is episode three,
or edition number three, issue three.
Yeah, issue 003.
003 comes with an Anderil poster, the grind that'll win. That's great. That's a great
insert. Very nice. Thank you for making print. Thank you. Yes. Cool again. Yes. We're huge on
printing. Our brother printer is working overtime. You clearly have a much nicer printer than we do.
Yeah, we don't have much color. Yeah, mostly black and white. But how are you doing, Max?
Doing great.
How are you?
Fantastic.
How has the reception to 003 been?
Can you give us a little bit of overview
on what you're building within Arena,
what your vision was for Machine World,
and maybe one of the articles in here
that you were the most fond of?
Well, I had a very funny moment when I was walking
on the streets in San Francisco last week
and just saw the poster that we put in the front cover
just in someone's office, just laying around basically.
And then I got a direct message from one of the subscribers
who's like an accountant somewhere in Florida
who had to frame it.
He wanted to show me the picture of framing the poster.
And so this one was very fun.
It was the first magazine in which I did not personally
contribute an article actually,
but that sort of speaks to the level
of very fine submissions that we received.
My favorite one is called,
Who Wants to Work in a Factory?
And we actually had our friend Alder Riley respond
to a at Luke underscore Metro tweet that said,
everyone wants to expand industrial capacity,
but no one wants to work in a factory.
And so Alder does 3D printers
and does a lot of this stuff in the heartland.
And so it's a subject that's very appealing to me.
And he talks about the sort of wonder in the eyes of the kids that get to see all this
tech stuff and his big thing.
They actually do want to work in the factory.
The children yearn for it.
The opportunity has been sort of taken away in the course of many generations.
Totally. It's just the opportunity has been sort of taken away in the course of many generations.
Totally, I remember an Onion article from years ago
that was joking that job satisfaction among crane
operators was at an all time high.
Because you just wake up, you go, and it's very tactile,
you're moving things around.
And it's a joke, but it's also probably very true.
My question is, obviously, you monitor, I think,
tech culture very, very closely. I
want to know it feels like obviously there's been this massive vibe shift. Have we won?
Do we need to be cautious about resting on our laurels now or is there still so much
work to do because we truly have not reshored manufacturing?
Jobs not finished.
Jobs not finished. What's your take?
Yeah, I don't think that anyone should ever
assume that they've won the American culture.
There remains a lot of anti-tech sentiment.
Much of it with reason.
The whole arena project is sort of trying
to synthesize the tech culture with the broader American
culture.
And there are ways in which these two things
are sometimes at odds.
I think that 2010's tech largely at odds
with the American culture.
Google saying, no, we don't wanna work with the military,
but it's fine to work with the Chinese military.
I think it's always incumbent on the tech world
to clearly explain the benefits of the
system to the broader nation just because it's here.
It can't be sort of reconstructed somewhere else.
I've always been fascinated by you as a figure because on the one hand, you work deeply in
technology or at a venture capital firm.
You're deeply ingrained in the tech world
and the techno optimist world.
But at the same time, you're building a shed on, you know,
like land.
Yeah, you took building in public to a new level
by just building this extravagant,
I don't even think we can call it a shed.
What is it?
It's a structure.
Structure, yeah, break down what you're building
and like why and how that fits into the tech,
you know, narrative that you're building.
Yeah. I set out a, so I have an off-grid cabin and I'm building like a big steel building
that where I'll put my Starlink, but the off-grid cabin is very rustic. At one point I tweeted
out a picture of my typewriter and my oil lamps. And I was like, this is where I write
techno propaganda from inside an off
grid cabin with a little solar battery and a Starlink. Yeah. I think that I've been sort
of, I've been sort of nursing this concept of like, you know, techno ledism where we
can, where we can, where we can encourage, you know, technology broadly, but we don't
have to adopt. We don't have to give everyone like an internet-connected toaster or whatnot.
We can rebel against the little elements.
And really the beautiful thing about technology is that it can give us our time back.
It makes the whole economy more productive.
It raises wealth standards for the everyman.
And I think that that's something that's always good to keep in mind.
I just happen to also have a very strong connection to Iowa where I grew
up and love to spend the summer on my property up there.
How many undiscovered Luke Faradars are there in the world? I think it's an amazing story
of just in general, you split time between Austin, which is sort of maybe a destination for people
like Luke, but you also spend time in Iowa, where I imagine that there are undiscovered
people like that. What's your read on kind of American untapped potential broadly?
Well, I mean, the legacy of the big Midwestern research universities is really amazing.
You have the University of Nebraska, Purdue, Iowa State,
University of Minnesota.
I mean, they invent stuff all the time.
They're massive enterprises, and there
are tons of super talented people that are in them.
And basically, one of the issues is
that there's probably just some like talent misallocation that
goes on based on the types of businesses that are the most
competitive hires in those states.
But I think that the very good news is that the internet has totally surfaced a lot of
the Luke Faraday types to the rest of the world.
Yeah, it's on the order of tens of thousands in the Midwestern US, I think.
You go one rung below Luke, then you get hundreds of thousands.
Luke is A++.
Totally.
Do you see, is that all a focus for you of talent discovery?
You obviously spend time at 8vc, you know, you're sort of, I imagine, splitting
time between arena and eight. Is that something that that you
feel as part of your mission is to try to get those people to
work on problems that you find important?
Yeah, I got a great I got a great email from from from a
subscriber just the other day that I that I shared with his
permission on X.
And he said, he's a consultant doing local consulting in Houston, Texas. And he said
that he was feeling really down about the way that Doge was being portrayed and he'd
always wanted to do something in manufacturing. And he said that he opened up Arena Magazine
and it gave him some inspiration and he's thinking about doing it. And I said, let us know if we can help with your pivot.
So yes, the cardinal goal
of doing this crazy print publication
is to mind-infect people, to work on the right things,
the cool things, the pro-America things.
And I think that that is also a core duty of,
it's not just media people.
I think that the venture
capitalists are also trying to mind-infect founders and engineers to work on the right
things as well.
Yeah.
Is there's this idea of a silver tsunami, it's been sort of meme to death at this point
of this idea that there's all these people running sort of important small businesses
and manufacturing companies and widget companies here in the
US and they're retiring. And the MBAs figured that out and said, you know, these are our
companies like that's my $5 million EBITDA, you know, manufacturing business. Like I'm
going to take it over. Who's the right people to take it over? Is there an opportunity that
for Silicon Valley to sort of participate in that and sort of bring sort of more like the idea,
some of the robotic stuff that you're seeing at Y Combinator and bring that to the heartland
or is it an opportunity for everybody?
Well, I think it's an opportunity for the business owners that have been doing real
things for all these decades to secure the bag. And there's a sort
of love the wealth transfer going on selling these $5 million EBITDA businesses. I don't
know, 10x EBITDA starting offer to the MBA. I think it's great. I think I dislike the
meme of it where it's like, we're all gonna take these things over
and it's actually not that hard to run these businesses.
There's the very famous John Collison tweet
where he's, the world is a museum of passion projects
and every little thing is like that.
But one hopes that there are some interesting ways
to integrate AI into these things.
But I'm also sort of a believer in the like,
Octavian choosing his successor, the street boy from Rome.
And I think that you're gonna see a lot of these situations
where someone talented will find a mentee
who will take it over.
And that you may actually see a trend
of just outright transferring these businesses.
This is a very European thing actually,
but I think it could happen.
Yeah, it's great if a business owner's run something
for 30 years and they can sell the business
for $10 million and buy a boat and a lake house
and sort of sail off into the sunset, but at the same time, it's transferring the business for $10 million and buy a boat and a lake house and sort of sail off into the sunset.
But at the same time, transferring the business,
not a direct transfer, but sort of creating something
like a seller note that allows them to take it over
and continue to be paid out for what they built.
Yeah, exactly.
Exactly.
I want to go to self-driving cars.
There's an article in here, What a World of Self-Driving Cars
Might Be Like by Andrew Miller. And I want to talk about the aesthetics of self-driving cars. There's an article in here, What a World of Self-Driving Cars Might Be Like,
by Andrew Miller.
And I want to talk about the aesthetics
of self-driving cars.
I found it very striking when Tesla announced
the cyber cab, how different the design was to the Waymos,
which are these kind of knobby, bumpy Jaguars.
And Elon announced,
the future should look like the future
What what is your platonic ideal of a self-driving car look like?
Well, I think that eventually you're going to see a diversification based on consumer choice
Which is what happened with with regular cars, so I don't have a platonic ideal myself. I want the people to decide
as for the like liver for humanoids.
As for the like the future should look like the future. I agree with that. And one of our big
things with arena is that like the futuristic aesthetic is better by just relying on the stuff
that already exists basically. And I that's why I admire the design of the cyber cab
it's not that different from what their actual cars look like and so the key thing there is that
it doesn't seem so far off and ridiculous I'm in favor of the Jetsons stuff as well but only if it
can actually be done and what I worry about is like lying to people about like what it's going
to look like because it's not going to be all it's not gonna be all, you know, cyberpunk.
Sure, sure.
I'd like a autonomous horse and buggy, personally.
With a humanoid robot that sits in the front.
My farm is 10 miles down the road
from the largest Amish settlement west of the Mississippi.
And so I drive past the horse and buggies all the time.
There are horse parking lots.
That might be a big thing.
Techno-Luddism.
Maybe the Founders Fund office, maybe the ABC office
will need a horse post for the techno-Luddites
to show up at the office.
There's nothing better I can imagine
than just riding a horse with a Starlink on it.
That's the best, that's the dream.
Yeah, with an optimist that's actually sort of like, you know, guiding the horses for
you. So you can sit in the back and it's fully autonomous.
Well, this is fantastic, Max. Thanks so much. We'll have to have you on back soon. Congratulations
on the launch of Arena. It's a fantastic magazine. Everyone should go subscribe it. Where can
they find it? What's the URL?
ArenaMag.com
ArenaMag.com. Thanks for stopping by. We'll talk to you soon. Thank you, Max. Great to see you. Thanks. Take care. Everyone should go subscribe it. Where can they find it? What's the what's the URL arena mag calm arena mag calm?
Thanks for stopping by we'll talk to you max great to see you
End up next coming into the capital of capital the fortress of finance the temple of technology. We got Justin Mares
former brother
Welcome to the stream.
Profiled in Forbes.
On Sunday.
On Sunday.
Cover story.
Cover story.
Big.
Huge.
Took you, that was a nice little victory lap.
Yeah.
Arguably this is a big appearance.
It took eight years, yeah, we got there.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
It's kind of a stepping stone.
You do the Forbes cover and then you get invited
on your friend's podcast.
Yeah.
Yeah, it's great to finally have you here. They said what turned me on to it was they saw his brother of the
week and they were looking for feature stories.
Yeah, that makes sense.
That makes sense.
Yeah.
It's the pipeline.
The pipeline.
It's great to have you finally.
We got to see you yesterday in SF.
Yeah.
You had a good trip.
Yeah, it was great.
Yeah, it's cool being back in SF.
The city is like, it's alive again, it was great. Yeah, it's cool being back in SF. The city is like it's alive again It feels like and so good energy here saw some guys at Equinox working on genes. It's just just everywhere
That was me. I was I didn't bring shorts
I'm just sitting I'm in Equinox and SF being like somebody from the list of the show is gonna see this and
Yeah, and I mean that wasn't as bad as on Monday.
I got back from Tahoe and I worked out in my mountain boots.
Yeah, yeah.
Hey, it's just about getting the work in.
Just get the lift in, do the work.
What's the scene like?
And you've famously been posted up in Austin
for a long time.
What's the scene like there?
Do you think that the startup community in Austin
still has a lot of momentum or that now that SF
is feeling back, does that potentially
slow down Austin's traction?
Yeah, I mean, I'm sure that it'll have an impact
on Austin's traction, but the reality is I think that
in SF, if you're building an AI
company and you're not an SF right now, it just seems like a bad idea. Like you should
just move to the place where all the AI stuff is happening. Outside of that though, I mean,
I think that you could make a pretty compelling argument that Austin is a way better place
to build a health company, a defense tech company, like any number of these sort of
hard tech or other companies that the Bay
doesn't necessarily have such a stranglehold on, I think Austin is still going to do quite
well.
And I still personally see a bunch of people moving there.
But again, if you're doing AI stuff, it's just like SF is so far ahead.
It's the obvious choice.
I want to ask you about how you're using AI
across the different businesses.
You obviously have built a bone broth empire,
now are in the fintech space that also ties into Maha.
But before we do that, do you have any updates
to share on TruMed?
What's the latest?
Yeah, I mean, the big news is that we actually
closed a round led by Andreessen Horowitz.
Go!
Congratulations!
You're here first.
Thank you.
There we go.
Yeah, so we raised $36 million led by Andreessen Horowitz.
Wow.
Yeah.
Huge congrats.
That's amazing.
Can you break down how the business is working now?
Just give the general pitch for those who might not know what TruMed does.
Yeah, so basically what we're doing is we're unlocking
the ability to spend tax-free HSA, FSA money
on things like gym memberships, supplements,
eight sleeps, sponsor plug.
Let's go, let's go.
Rora's right, I think.
Exactly, and all these different things.
And like the reason for this is basically the IRS says
that health savings accounts and
FSA accounts, they're used for medical spend. And yet medical spend is not defined as like,
it has to be a pill that is created by a pharmaceutical company. If you look at studies,
they show that exercise, sleep supplements, all these things actually work better for treating
many chronic conditions than, you know, SSRIs or any sort of other like pharmaceutical intervention.
And so what we're doing is we're basically building an integrated fintech product that allows than SSRIs or any sort of other pharmaceutical intervention.
And so what we're doing is we're basically building
an integrated FinTech product that allows you,
if you're trying to treat or prevent obesity,
to buy something like a Peloton, pay for a gym membership
using your tax-free HSA, FSA funds, assuming you qualify.
Is the business entirely e-commerce driven,
or can you plug into, you know,
Peloton eventually
gets a retail store and you're kind of like on the toast layer, like the square checkout
layer as well?
There's like an Apple Pay integration.
Yeah.
Right now, we're 100% e-commerce.
But a big reason that we raised is to try and like be everywhere basically.
Like any time you're investing in something that could improve, you know, prevent disease,
improve your health, anything like that,
TruMed should be a payment option.
And so that's kind of where we're going towards.
That's super exciting.
If it feels like you were so, if you could sort of rewind
and build the best possible business for the Maha movement
that would benefit from this sort of new emphasis
on American health, it would have been TruMed,
but talk about the early days of TruMed.
You'd obviously been a successful entrepreneur at that time,
but was there pushback?
Did people ever say, oh, this like,
yeah, we don't invest in like Shopify apps.
Like, was there any of that sort of like,
did you get any passes like that that you can remember?
Cause you're obviously here now,
you've raised this new round, $36 million
from a huge growth
fund.
But talk about the early days and the pushback there.
Yeah, I mean, we definitely got pushback.
When we were starting, people were like, is this legal?
What are you doing?
You're a broth guy.
What do you know about fintech?
And so there was some pushback on that dimension.
But for the most part, like,
if you believe, like we do, that root cause interventions, sleep, exercise, things like this
are actually effective at treating or preventing chronic conditions, which the research certainly
shows, then there's no reason. And in fact, like these sorts of things should be encouraged. Like
we should be encouraging more Americans to spend their tax advantage money on these sorts of things.
And the biggest pushback truly was that question of like, is this legal?
And some people were like, I don't really believe that exercise is effective as an intervention.
If you believe that, they're on a Zempik now.
Yeah, that's right.
How competitive are you and Nick?
You obviously started your broth empire together.
Now Nick is running another company, Light Labs,
that's crushing it.
I'm happy to be an investor there.
But do you guys have any sort of running bets on who is
TrueMed or Light Labs going to be the bigger outcome?
Is that on your mind?
Yeah, so, and maybe introduce your brother briefly.
Yeah, so I started Kettle and Fire with Nick Mares,
my brother, and he was 19, I was 25,
when we first started the company.
He was in one of the early Teal Fellowship classes, actually,
which was, yeah, which was kind of cool.
And so he left Kettle and Fire, you know,
I started TruMed, he's starting Light Labs,
which is doing a bunch of consumer testing for brands to test like, you know, Jordan,
you care about this, John, I don't think you do. But like microplastics, do you have glyphosate?
You know, do you have any of these things for people that are that are sort of weak
willed and end up getting sick from the environmental toxins in their environment? Yeah. So he started
that company and it's been great.
We've had a great relationship when we were building Kettle and Fire.
Anytime we had conflict, mom could just referee.
And I was mostly right, which I think also helped.
But now we're both supporting one another in this deep thing that we learned and felt
and believe earnestly from our Kettle Catholic fire experience, which is the American food
system, is basically poisonous to weak-willed people
like most Americans.
And so he's working on that way.
I'm trying to work on it in the true med way.
I love that you're both trying to tackle
a very similar problem, but from totally different angles. And it's great because John doesn't care about what's in his food. He's just junkyard dog
He's you know building up poison resist. Yeah. Yeah exactly
Poisons, but you should be using you should be using true med. I should I should well
I mean if I go into pro bodybuilding I assume I could use true med to you know use my FSA HSA dollars to get tax-free bodybuilding coaching hormones hormones I will be a natural
bodybuilder talk about something that maybe has gotten less attention is just
your investing career maybe like kind of how do you kind of what were a few of your early angel investments
that kind of got you hooked on it because I feel like you're deeply addicted to angel
investing which has turned out to be a really good habit for you but and we bonded over
this early on because when we first met I think it was for Aurora which you ended up
investing in and you were were like, I wanted
to start this company, but I guess I'll invest.
But yeah, maybe talk a little bit about that and what's most interesting to you at this
point.
For sure.
Yeah, I mean, if you look at my balance sheet, definitely angel investing has been great.
If you look at the income statement, it's basically been like the worst hobby that an American man has ever had. Just
like dumping cash into different illiquid vehicles for seven years now. But my first
ever angel check actually was into something called Crusoe Energy, which is a founders
fund company.
I didn't even know that.
That's such a banger company that. We're billions now. Yeah. So that's
a good one. My second one was in a company called mind bloom, which is like doing at
home ketamine therapy. I'm very much a believer in psychedelic therapy generally. And just
as I did more and more of these, these kinds of deals, like I felt very strongly that as
someone who is building a company,
one of the key areas of alpha you have is you just get a really good sense of who is actually good
at doing stuff. And so, Jordy, when you were talking about Rora, I was like, okay, this guy
is smart. He's good at marketing. He's good at building teams. You introduced me to Brian and
the rest of the guys. It's like, this is going to be a great deal and a great company.
And I think that something that maybe people don't appreciate enough is if you lived in
the Bay, you know, I moved to the Bay in 2012, lived in here, I'm actually in San Francisco
right now, lived here for a decade.
You just got to meet all of these amazingly talented people that were starting companies.
And after I passed on a deal that a friend was starting
and it ended up like totally blowing up.
And I was like, okay, this is dumb.
I just have all of this alpha that is like surrounding me
in San Francisco.
Blowing up in a good way, presumably.
Yeah, yeah, blowing up in a good way, exactly.
You're like, that company, Theranos.
You blew up.
I could have been in the book.
I could have been in the movie. There are multiple types
of alpha.
There's a weird thing where I realized it's a huge mistake not to invest in your friends.
Your absolute boys.
If you believe in your own abilities, you tend to self-select to be around other similarly
talented people and you should just default invest in invest in your friends.
A hundred percent. Yeah. That was a lesson that I learned kind of the hard way.
And then now I invest probably in 15 companies a year personally as an angel.
And I'm also a venture partner at a, at a fund called long journey ventures.
So do make, do a lot of it. I would say,
Talk about, talk about your approach to valuation. You're not obviously,
it's not like the most important factor
by any means, but every time, it's so often,
I feel like I talk to you and you're like,
oh yeah, I got into that company at a three cap
or something like that.
And normally, most investors are like,
I haven't seen a company raising at a three cap.
But somehow you do it.
Is that just by nerding out and meeting founders
sort of years before they end up starting companies?
Like how do you even make that happen?
Yeah, definitely.
Definitely it is by nerding out and like knowing people and talking to them
about when they're thinking of taking the leap.
Like in the case of mindblown, uh, I was talking to my friend Dylan for a while.
He was running other ideas by me.
And at one point I was just like, dude, you're the most into psychedelic therapy person I know.
If you start a psychedelic therapy company,
like do it, I'll write the first check
and just like get going.
And I've done that with a couple other companies
where they're deciding, do I take the leap or not?
And I, as a friend and as a backer can just be like,
you should definitely do this.
I'll help you put together the rest of the money
and I'll literally be the first check in.
Not that it's like crazy size,
like we're not ringing the size gong or anything, but.
We'll hit the size gong for you.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Ooh.
Yeah.
Yeah.
But yeah, so that I think is if you can play some role
in the journey that your friends have
or like other people you know have in going from should I start a thing to I'm doing this thing, oftentimes you have
pricing advantage in that, but you're also like part of the journey and part of the story
of one of the first believers, which is, I think personally the thing that is most exciting
to me about angel stuff.
Like I don't get hot and bothered about, you know, a late stage growth round for a company
that's crushing it quite as much
as I do the one-on-one, very personal conversations
with someone that wants to do something big
and is trying to figure out how to take that first leap.
It's fantastic.
Yeah, that makes sense.
How are you seeing AI impact?
Obviously, the broth business, Kettle and Fire,
the broth empire, it and fire, the broth empire,
it's very real world driven,
like you guys are figuring out,
from what I can see,
you can't make enough of the product, right?
Like there's sort of like,
demand is sort of,
you have like the best problem for a business owner
and sort of you're trying to like meet that demand.
Are you seeing sort of more efficiency though, and the sort of like,
you know, across the company broadly, are there sort of hires that you would
have made this year that maybe you're not having to because of AI or, or
obviously you're, you're on the board now, but I'm sure you still have
enough visibility into the business.
Oh yeah.
I mean, for, for, uh, Kettle and Fire specifically, we are not hiring
like ad creators, we are not hiring ad creators. We're not hiring copywriters.
There was this whole slew of marketing adjacent people that we previously had to hire.
We had a copywriter for the first five and a half years of the company.
Now we don't have anyone.
We used to have designers full-time.
Now we're investing less in that area.
So there's a lot of areas in the marketing side of things
that we have just invested less in.
The thing that I'm most excited about is,
I think if you're running a tech company like TruMed,
we have to, it's existential for us to figure out
how to use AI because every tech company is going to use AI
because it's just like in the bloodstream
of the tech industry.
If Kettle and Fire can figure out as a bone broth company, how to learn and apply AI,
we're going to be like the best run CPG company in the entire country and the
most efficient one.
And so we have like a whole team and by whole team, I mean, two people internally
focused at kettle and fire that are like playing with AI, using it to build tools.
We're, we're building, we're doing something kind of interesting
where we are building a factory. It's like a massive 150,000 square foot bone broth,
you know, bone broth kind of spot. Yeah. I need a cool moniker for that. That's, I'm not in the
arsenal. Yeah. Broth arsenal, selfplicating broth. The strategic broth reserve.
I mean, speaking of strategic reserves,
should we move on to Maha?
Yeah, I want to hear what the top.
I think this could be the start.
I hope that this is a start of decades of investment
and attention around American health.
Everybody's experienced this.
You can have everything you ever wanted in life,
but if you're not healthy, you in many ways have nothing.
If you were starting a company,
what opportunities do you see today
for sort of new entrepreneurs to sort of,
the obvious beneficiaries of people are like,
oh, I wanna be healthier, I'm gonna have bone broth,
or I wanna spend my HSA funds more effectively,
I can use true mad.
But what other opportunities are you kind of seeing for sort of net new entrance into the space?
Yeah, I mean, I think that the biggest companies get built to solve the biggest problems.
And in this case, like what I call the great American poisoning, America's chronic disease crisis is the biggest problem in the country.
Like health care, four and a.5 trillion a year in spend,
90% of that goes towards chronic conditions.
People are generally becoming skeptical
of health insurance, their doctors are not spending
much time with them.
Doctors broadly don't think about or know how to treat
chronic conditions.
Like most people will go to their doctor,
say I'm dealing with, well, I'm dealing with obesity.
Your doctor's not allowed to ask you if you're actually like fat or anything like this, which is insane.
And then if that happens-
Is it not like a clinical definition?
No, I mean, doctors are being discouraged from asking this because it-
Just culturally.
Yeah, exactly. It like turns patients off and like is shame of some sort. You know,
and our existing medical system, when someone walks in and
says, Hey, I want to lose weight, or I'm dealing with inflammation or whatever, predominantly,
they get recommended drugs, they get recommended prescriptions, they get recommended all this
stuff. And I think that people are starting to like wake up and be skeptical of the system
that basically where people get sick because of our toxic environment, and then our healthcare
system drugs them for profit. And so I think that if you are an entrepreneur
or someone that cares about this problem,
there are effectively infinite,
infinite things that you can do to try and like
build a business in this space.
I think people are gonna become much more skeptical
of pharmaceuticals over the next decade.
I think people are, you know,
where the doctor patient relationship
is going to be totally reinvented.
You see companies like Function and Superpower and others that are starting where they have the philosophy that
health is not found in the doctor's office, which I agree. If you get your labs done outside of that,
you change your diet, you start exercising, you start taking supplements, your outcomes are much
more likely to improve than they are if you just go talk to your GP once every nine to 12 months
and spend on average seven minutes with that doctor a year.
And so I just think that every aspect of the patient journey, how people are getting sick,
what they're doing to address it is completely changing right now, which is really exciting.
Great answer.
Yeah, you got to get people on sleep diet and exercise.
It's the most boring content, but every new health influencer that blows up, they always
blow up like, let's just go back to the basics.
And they just drill that for a year.
They get really big.
And then they start to talk about like, oh, the longer tail stuff.
But all the time.
Yeah, exactly.
Do you have any life hacks or tips for sleep, diet,
or exercise that you like to share,
or ways to get advances there?
People are going to ask about the skin and hair routine, too.
For sure.
For sure.
Yeah, I think that people, a big thing
that people need to pay attention to is toxin avoidance.
I very much am of the belief that we exist in the biggest toxic soup that any group of
humans have ever lived in.
The US, our approach to regulating chemicals is so bad and so different from that of Europe.
Our third most popular pesticide is called atrazine.
Just to give an example, it's banned in the EU, banned in Mexico, banned in Canada, third most popular pesticide in the US. And provably when you expose male
frogs to atrazine, like four out of 10 of them become female frogs to the point where
they can bear offspring. Like this is Alex Jones.
It's the Alex Jones thing that was actually proven like made it true.
That was actually right. Yeah. Alex Jones crushed this one.
And it didn't come from Alex Jones. It came from some Berkeley professor, right?
Yeah.
And then I believe Michael Crichton,
when he wrote Jurassic Park, was basing it on that research.
And so in the original Jurassic Park movie,
there's the whole story about, oh, the dinosaurs,
if they're under environmental pressure,
they can change sexes to continue to reproduce.
This is like the plot of the first Jurassic Park.
And it was seen as like sci fi.
But Michael Creighton had actually read the paper and said, like, oh, this is like
possible. I'll include this in my book, which got turned into a movie.
It's very, very interesting. And then it became like a conspiracy theory.
And then it became like real again.
It was very weird how he round tripped it in the media from like, oh, like
totally reasonable to unbelievable to believable again
That's me. That's amazing. Where do you go?
Out of curiosity where what what are your sources of I mean?
What are your sources of alpha but you and so you don't need to actually share those but you know X like doesn't
Respect links anymore right you post the those. But X doesn't respect links anymore, right?
You post a link.
So nobody posts links.
There's some good original thought on X,
but a lot of it's just like memetic,
people just iterating around the same ideas.
Slop.
Slop.
We, I think, bonded over the repeat forums
and that whole hub of thought, arcane knowledge around health.
Where are you going on the internet aside from places
like X to get insight around where health is going,
where consumer trends are going, if anywhere?
Yeah, I really think that Elon is correct in recognizing
that Substack is kind of one
of the threats maybe to X.
It's a different platform, but that's where I get a lot of my news.
And the things that I find most interesting that the health community is talking about
are things like toxin avoidance.
I think environmental toxins are going to be the biggest trend of the next decade.
And we just don't even understand or begin to understand how bad a lot of these
things are. I think that the peeding stuff, Jordy, is totally spot on. I think that people
thinking about metabolic rate and all these sorts of things is highly undervalued and
underappreciated today. And then another thing I think is we're going to see much more, and I read subsets on this, but I think there's going to be much more attention paid
to nutrient deficiencies.
Like, you know, the average American's food
is something like between 40 and 70% less nutrient dense
than it was even just 50 years ago.
That's something that's not baked into almost anyone's model
of the world when they think about health and wellness is,
you know,
triple steak at Chipotle.
Yeah.
Sorry, sorry, sorry.
I totally I totally agree with you.
It's a scary one because it's almost like we need to genetically engineer the food to
having the nutrients back into it.
Take them out and then we add them back.
One of those things continues.
I have an I have an orange juice right here.
And I know it has probably 75% less, even vitamin C,
than it would have 50 years ago.
And that's sort of scary.
Do you think that the solution is
to sort of genetically engineer our food back to the past?
Or are you still sort of to the past or you still, you know, sort
of pro naturalist?
Yeah, I would say on this one, I'm mostly a naturalist largely because a lot of the
nutrient decay, some of it comes from soil.
A lot of it comes from how we transport our food.
Like if you grow, you know, spinach in California, package it, put it on average, like a 12 day
kind of like supply, put it through the supply chain, it gets to where you're eating it 12 days later. In that 12 day period, that spinach
is going to lose like roughly 70 90% of its total nutrient density content. And so I just
think people like ideally should be eating more seasonally, more locally, and then eating
animal products, which frankly, like, tend to be much more nutrient dense, you know,
than plants and vegetables.
I have a hot take on this. I want to run by you. I'm calling it the efficient markets
diet and it's basically like you can collapse all of the health and advice that you just
gave me, which I believe and I think you're onto something into just the market is efficient
and therefore if I want to have the least toxic most nutrient dense foods
I should just buy the most expensive thing and I should shop at Arowan and buy the most expensive thing and I always ask
The question of when I hear about a new diet new trend is this just a transposition of buy the most expensive thing
What do you think I think that's spot-on?
And this is why things like keto didn't have necessarily the staying power where people were like
Oh, that means I can buy dog shit cheese and dip it in
Butter and just max out on fat content and not eat any like anything healthy
Yeah, which is clearly just like not how you should do keto a lot of these diets
I feel like the main value is just giving you a little heuristic that sticks in your brain. That's very easy like paleo
You know, I don't know how good of the diet that is. But all I know is that if you're on paleo, you know,
caveman didn't have McDonald's don't eat McDonald's. And if you
just stop eating McDonald's, that's going to be an
improvement for a lot of people, right. And and I think that
except for Trump, except for Trump, it would take away all
of his power probably. Yes. He would immediately lose the
I think the greatest so if that's true, and we're just sort
of playing this out,
then the challenge for the technology industry
is to try to deliver what is now extremely expensive,
but make it 10 times cheaper.
And so maybe that's probably an entire problem area.
And the flip side of the efficient market diet
is that as food gets really, really cheap
because you're just completely optimizing everything and everything is just completely you know mechanized
It gets so cheap that people can overeat and then I don't know where you stand on the calorie in calorie out thing
But I think that it like people can overeat if the foods really expensive and they probably be better off eating
Less food that's more pure, but what's your response to that? Yeah, I think that's true
I mean for sure people that said,
though, the body has natural kind of satiety, you know,
mechanisms that that kick in and they kick in and work better
more when you're eating real food. Like if people there's
it's almost impossible to sit down and slam three rib eyes. But
it's relative.
So stop you right there. I think do it pretty easily. But for
most people, yes, I don't care dog. Yeah. I think I can do it pretty easily. But for most people, yes.
I don't care dog. Yeah. But I mean, for many people, they've had the experience or seen
someone have the experience of just eating through an entire fucking bag of Doritos or
totally like that. Totally. And they're designed to get you to do that. Exactly. Exactly. And
so the more you're eating real food, the more your like body's natural mechanisms of, Hey,
you're full. Hey, you should stop eating. hey, you're going to feel sick if you keep doing this, kicks in in a
way that it just doesn't when you're eating the Costco 48-ounce bag of cheese balls or
something.
Probably tastes good.
I would love to see you eat something like that.
It would just kill you instantly.
I keep joking with Jordy that I'm on the junkyard
diet, he's on the poodle diet, and a single inorganic blueberry would kill him instantly.
Yeah, I gotta be careful. Because he has no poison resist built up. I gotta be careful.
It's a balancing act, clearly. Justin, thank you for coming on. You're our new health.
You are the expert now, so whenever we're talking about it, we're gonna need to consult
the experts on this. We say trust the science, trust the bro scientists. So whenever we're talking about it, we're gonna need to consult with the experts on this.
We say trust the science, trust the bro scientists.
The brother scientists, Justin Mares.
Justin is our correspondent.
Congratulations on the round.
Congratulations on the round.
It's fantastic.
Job's not finished, obviously.
One last size gone for Jason.
We're gonna get every single American running on TruMed.
And then I hope we can get it so that you can basically
spend your entire income through TruMed someday
because it's probably the most important thing
that you spend money on.
Just no taxes then.
Yeah, yeah.
Just pay zero taxes.
That'd be fun.
This is the true tax optimizer.
Just spend 100% of your income on healthy food.
Steak and blueberries.
And gym, which is really all you need to spend money on.
So I think it's a great tax optimization strategy.
I wanna be paying zero in taxes
because I'm just eating at Erawan and Econox.
And giving Justin and the TruMed team their cut.
Yeah, their cut, their cut, yeah, for sure.
They are the new tax.
You pay the tax at TruMed,
you don't pay the tax to the government.
We're privatizing taxes. But I'm serious anytime. There's big health headlines. We want to have you come back on and break it down with us
Yeah, this is fantastic. Thanks so much for joining you in the group. Bye. Thanks guys. Yeah, we'll see you have a good one
I'm gonna use the restroom. Okay, always great to have a brother of the week on next up. We are going to Sean Puri
host of my first million good brother of the week on. Next up we are going to Sean Pury, host of My First Million, good friend of the show and I don't know, Ben, do you have
that printed out? So I want to have Sean on for a bunch of reasons, great guy, but
he posted a fantastic diagram of how it's this pyramid of how you like level up in your career and I thought it
was just fantastic and I wanted him to break it down on the show. I'm looking
through his his feed right now trying to find it and then also the the K-shaped
economy we got to go through that talking about will AI replace your job
well it depends on how your what job you're doing and what role you're playing
in the economy.
So I think he has a lot of great advice for founders
as well as for employees and basically everyone in between.
Also I'm sure we will touch on the Midwit meme
which is one of his favorites.
I'm going to send him the, where's the triangle of talent?
I need to find the triangle.
Let's find this triangle.
And then I will, oh, here we go.
The new blog, the Triangle of Talent.
I'll read this off.
Okay, enough teasing, here's my triangle of talent.
And he breaks down five levels of essentially competence
in any role, and I think this is a great framework, not just for people who are doing jobs and trying to level up but
also managers to think about where people in their ecosystem fit in. Level
one is useless. Even if you tell them exactly what to do they rarely do it
right. Level two is the task monkey. Tell them what to do and how to do it and
when to do it and they'll get it done. Level three is the problem solver. Tell them what to do. They figure out how.
Level four is the systems thinker. You tell them just the problem and they set
up a system to figure it out with the people and the process necessary. And
level five is the superstar. They identify the right problem and get it
solved and when you have a superstar on your team it is truly fantastic. They identify the right problem and get it solved. And when you have a superstar on your team, it is truly fantastic.
And so I want him to break that down.
Let me send this off.
We are ready.
Cool.
Hopefully we can get him on.
And Jordy, what else do you wanna talk to Sean about?
I think branding, marketing, podcasting, e-commerce,
he's kind of an expert in everything.
Yeah, I wanna talk to him about,
he does a bunch of startup investments.
I think that, I think he may have had a rolling fund
or a fund on AngelList.
I wanna ask him about, if eventually he just like wants,
I imagine he seems like the guy
is just gonna wanna run his own money.
Oh yeah.
You just take all the returns.
Yeah.
I'm interested to get his perspective there.
He has hilarious stories about Twitch.
He worked at Twitch for a while.
I'm not sure how many he can share on stream,
but they're great if we can get some of those out of him.
Truly some of the funniest era in Silicon Valley.
Also, when I did his podcast, My First Million,
it's an incredibly well-run show.
They, unlike this, they prep for their guests a lot.
And so he sent me this worksheet to fill out the three ideas
of what I could kind of like pitch to him.
Let me see if I have this.
My first million.
I wanna see if I have this. My first million. I want to see if I have this.
Because, I don't know if I have it here.
He sent it to me and it was a lot of fun,
but he asked specifically, bring three great stories
from your business career, bring three startup ideas,
and the ideas I brought were Beast VPN,
which was, I wanted Mr. Beast to set up a VPN company,
start a VPN company.
Because he is a very international, broad audience.
It's low churn, high margin, and everyone is kind of
in the market for a VPN, people, do they need them,
do they not need them?
But if Mr. Beast was
able to build out a VPN it's a it's a it's kind of an uninvestable category for VCs which
makes it because all the money just goes into marketing and distribution but you have a
massive distribution arm ready to go you can just immediately really really run with that
and and get you know basically capture all the value
because you're not spending money on marketing.
And if you look, I've always felt that one of the best ways
for YouTubers to monetize is to create a business
where the competes with their number one advertiser.
And so when you look at one of the largest
ad buying segments on YouTube, it's VPNs.
And so almost every YouTuber has got an email
from a VPN provider saying,
hey, we'd love to sponsor you.
But I think we got him here in the temple of technology.
Welcome to the stream.
What is going on, gentlemen?
What's going on?
There he is.
Hey.
There he is.
Good to see you.
Look, you're looking fantastic. You got the lighting, you got the real mic. That. There he is. Good to see you. Look, you're looking fantastic.
You got the lighting, you got the real mic.
That's fantastic, sir.
You look like a professional.
Yeah, clearly a professional.
I had to show up right.
I wanted to come here and just lay down a gauntlet.
I'm not a technology brother,
but I would like to be the technology cousin, perhaps.
Yeah.
Technology uncle.
I'm still workshopping names, but.
I honestly like uncle. Uncle I'm still working names but I honestly like I like uncle uncle is
hilarious. You've got that sort of elder elder statesman. That's what I'm going for. Like
yeah. No that's perfect. That's fantastic. Great to have you on. And the audio is and
I hate to you know shade it Justin Maris who was on five minutes ago but it's just night
and day difference. It's great to have the the sound
Yeah, we're professional on a gentleman scholar. It's not my first podcast gentleman. Let's go
What's on your mind today? What you know, let maybe let's start there. I don't think we need to introduce you
We can just dive right into it. Oh, I just think what you guys are doing is genius
So I needed to first come on and give you some flowers for that.
Thank you.
I think innovative is an understatement.
I think we need to just acknowledge
what is actually happening here.
Andrew Tate might've been the first,
but you guys are the second to say,
hey, I'm gonna create a podcast.
And it doesn't, the podcast is nothing.
The podcast is just feedstock for the shorts for the clips
Yes, and that that is a core core insight that you guys have pounced on you're doing great with the branding
Love it. Love everything you're doing. That's what you said. He said he I want to be the Andrew Tate of technology
And so I said I can make that happen. I have experience
YouTube and John is also John's dream is to be a Harry Potter fan
Harry Potter fan fiction, yes.
That's the riff we have going.
Well, we can talk Harry Potter.
I can go deep on Harry Potter if you want.
But Jordy, I think that Andrew Tate is trying to be the Jordy
of felons and the trouble of droners, or whatever he does.
Cam girl.
Well, you know the funny thing?
It was weird timing, but Andrew Tate showed back up
in the US and then there was that lawsuit against passes.
And that was sort of like potentially convenient timing.
It seems like he might be, you know, kind of coming,
trying to enter the US market.
Competitions for losers.
Anyways, we don't want to compare ourselves.
Regulatory capture.
Yeah.
I actually, so one of the things I'm like super curious about your content creator yourself
You know you have the podcast
What's like what's your what's your information diet like something that John and I talk about a lot is is our show is heavily
Based on what's happening right now what the current thing is we obviously focus on X as a platform
But if you're only consuming content on X,
then you're not injecting anything sort of new
and you're just like part of the hive mind.
How do you think about your information diet
and kind of where do you spend your time
kind of coming up with ideas?
Yeah, it's a great question.
I think that the information diet is probably like today, something that only nerds like us talk about,
but it's going to become a very popular concept as people realize that it's garbage in garbage out.
So, you know, I think the problem that the tech guys have is we will all go consume not necessarily garbage content,
but just the same content. Right.
So we're all on X. We're all reading consume not necessarily garbage content, but just the same content, right? So we're all on X
We're all reading the same things listening to all in and listen the same podcast
and then guess what you have the same thoughts as everybody else and like
While calling yourself a contrarian, right? It doesn't really make sense. And so, you know for me, I do a couple of things
So I have I have a phrase that I like
which is
kids dogs and dead people and I want to spend as much of my time as which is kids, dogs and dead people.
And I want to spend as much of my time as I can with kids, dogs and dead people.
And so what does that mean?
Kids will teach you a certain set of things. So kids are highly playful.
They work with their imagination a lot.
They're completely delusional.
They have no idea of what's realistic and what's not.
And so the more time you spend with kids, the more playful you become, the more
imaginative you become, the more imaginative you become,
the more delusional you become.
So I take that from them.
Dogs are sort of these unconditional lovers, right?
Dogs are always down, always loyal, always happy.
They're there for you in every way.
And so, you know, pick that up from dogs.
And the last is the dead people.
So how do I change my ratio of tweets to books, right?
Because, you know, long form, as to books? Right? Because long form,
as ever gets interested in consuming long form, I've sort of wanted to go the opposite
way. Sorry, people get interested in consuming short form. I want to consume as much long
form as I can. So whether it's old videos on YouTube, like I watched this thing with
Max Levchin from 2004 talking about about and I was like, this
is fantastic.
And it has like, you know, 89 views on YouTube.
And so you start to get excited about being a collector of pieces.
Right.
It's like, oh, this is a wonderful old memo.
You know, when they first pitched PowerPoint at Microsoft or this is a this is a great
book.
I read this book recently called
Talk like what was it was?
Stan like Lincoln talk like Churchill It was just like about like public speaking and just being a goddamn man and the way you show up to things and I was
Like this is fantastic. And so I'm trying to spend as much as I much time as I can with dead people
It's great. Great answer. Can you take us through the triangle of talent? I really love this
We printed this off here because I think it's a fantastic framework for elevating talent within an organization
We're a small company here
But I wanted like what inspired you to saw to map this out this way and and what do you think people are taking?
Away from it. How's the reception been?
Every blog post I write it's just a pot shot at somebody
It's an annoyance from an employee in my company and then then I'm like you know what I'm gonna write this over here
I hope you read this. I hope you really understand this
That's the honest truth is irritation sure is the itch and innovation is the scratch as I like Steve jobs had a line
We just talked about earlier on the show. He told his team, I hope what you just did makes you hate each other.
Yeah, you should hate each other for doing this
because they messed up the mobile email rollout.
Yeah, the email's sinking and it went so poorly
that Apple was looking terrible in 2008
and he was like, you guys should hate each other for this.
It's so bad.
Anyway.
So the real insight here actually came
when I sold my company.
So I sold my company and I went from CEO to now I was an employee.
Yeah.
So I'm on the other side of the table and I was trying to figure out like,
oh, this is interesting.
Like now I have a boss.
I have a manager.
What does this guy care about?
How does he think about me?
And like what's this dynamic like?
And what I realized was that in every company, there's like this little
number floating above your head and it's your trust score
It's like it what you know that movie where it's like how many days you have left to die or whatever and people could you could
See it on each other's forehead or something like that
Yeah, it's like a black mirror like Death Note or something like that. So
The the thing I realized was that basically for the CEO they look at all their employees and there's just a trust score and the
Trust score is basically like can I can I trust you to?
They look at all their employees and there's just a trust score and the trust score is basically like can I can I trust you to?
Be watching out for problems and identifying them yourself, or am I gonna have to deliver like the issues to you? I'm gonna have to be the one telling you hey
We got to solve this and then if I even if I did do that too if I gave you the problem
Do I trust that you'd be able to solve it do I trust that you could manage like a group of people in solving this or?
Can I only give you things that are small, bite-sized,
where you can alone do it?
Do I have to give you the instructions on how to solve it,
or could you figure it out?
So, if everyone's got this trust score, you want to be at 100%.
You want to be at 100.
And those are the people, ultimately, they get the raises,
they get the opportunities.
When the new thing comes up, that's who you put on the project,
is the people you trust the most.
And really, your trust score goes far beyond like your job title.
And I realized this when I was working with Emmett at Twitch.
Yeah. And so then in my own company, as I sort of realized, like, OK,
could I like assign some numbers to that score?
Could I assign some levels to that score?
And so, yeah, that's where the triangle comes from.
I don't know if you want me to like say what I'd love to know.
Like, obviously, when you're the CEO, if you're selling your company,
you're probably operating at level five superstar. But then you go into Twitch, you said it was
a very different environment. Did you feel yourself moving downward towards like level
four, level three, gravity is moving you downwards, right? Because you're supposed to, you know,
like you, if you go to these big companies, you're not the CEO of the founder, more not
all the problems don't roll up to you. All the opportunities aren't your decision
whether you're going to do them or not.
And so gravity is kind of pulling you down
to get to like a kind of like a level three,
which is like a bit of a,
you're just a sort of a task doer or you can,
or maybe you can manage a team of people
to do a set of tasks.
But I was just like trying to fight that.
So like I had a great conversation with my buddy Furcon
when we got acquired and he goes,
he was pulled up the company metrics, like the company dashboard.
And he's like the CEO view, basically.
And he's like, which one of these numbers do you think our project will move?
And I was like, I was just thinking of they bought our company to do X, we should come
here and do X.
And what he was arguing was like, cool, that made sense when we're trying to sell this
company to them.
Of course, we wanted to see how big of a deal it was.
Another we're here.
We're on the same team.
We should just be more objective.
Like, is our thing going to move any of these metrics?
And he goes, don't you do this thing like whatever we do while we're here.
We should just be able to move one of these KPIs like five or 10 percent.
And like we should just make that our budget.
Like we're not going to do a project if it can't move the needle five or 10 percent
on one of the like the core metrics, usage, revenue, you know, profits. Right. So, and I looked
at what we were doing. It was never going to do that. Even if we did it really well,
it would never have moved any of those metrics. And so I literally just didn't do any of the
work I was supposed to do for about a month. I just started walking around the office asking
people like, what's going on over here? Like, what are your, what are the problems are you
dealing with? What's, what's something on over here? Like what are the problems are you dealing with?
What's something that somebody should be doing that nobody's doing right now?
Or what's something that's worrying you?
And our buddy Hubert who sold Curse to Twitch, he was there and he was like this guy who
had been like ringing this bell that nobody was listening to.
And he's like, hey, look at this.
Our market share in Brazil has dropped like dramatically and nobody cares. Nobody's doing anything at this. Our market share in Brazil has dropped dramatically and nobody cares.
Nobody's doing anything about this.
And he's like, it's because.
Mobile gaming,
it's all mobile gaming over there streaming from your phone.
And we don't even have the functionality to do that.
And internally at the company, we had all written off mobile game streaming
is like something that wasn't a thing because we tried it.
It didn't work.
Nobody watched candy crush and we all moved on.
But hey, something has changed and here's the data.
So we only started working on that.
So that was kind of my real life experience of not letting myself go from a level five
to a level three because that's where the gravitational pull was.
And like trying to fight to be like, no, no, no, I'm only going to, I'm going to try to
identify the biggest problems and I'm going to try go solve them that makes a ton of sense I
want to talk about branding when we launched this show I was very obsessed
with like the growth hacks and the quote tweets and the clips as you mentioned
but you came to me and you said I think the fact that you guys have really
thought about the brand and that Jordy was the one who really thought about the
brand the most but what is your playbook for developing a new brand what's your
stack what who's in the room are you using AI tools is starting a PowerPoint but what is your playbook for developing a new brand? What's your stack?
Who's in the room?
Are you using AI tools?
Is it starting a PowerPoint or a doc or a notes app?
How do you think about developing a brand?
What are the best practices these days?
Yeah, it starts with a very simple principle,
which is all positioning is counter positioning.
So you want to position
yourselves in the consumer's mind but it's always going to be relative to
what's already in the consumer's mind. Yeah so you might say we are a restaurant
we make food that's healthy and fresh it's like great but everybody says the
same thing so not only have you blended in but you're not counter position to
anything versus if you say we make yoga pants like Lululemon
except for ours aren't full of microplastics, right?
Now you've counter positioned against Lululemon.
So you say, we're athleisure, we're premium,
but no microplastics, right?
So it's the but that matters the most.
Whereas everybody focuses on the things before the but.
They're like, we're this, this, this, this, and this.
Yeah, that too, we're open source too.
Yeah, we do that too. And they just try to add this long this, this, this, and this. Yeah, that too. We're open source too. Yeah, we do that too.
And they just try to add this long list
and it becomes this very muddy drink.
And so I think what you guys did,
just look at your brand, right?
So you guys are counter positioned in a cool way, right?
So first you're like very masculine brand.
So you're not neutral where I think most people are afraid
to have any sort of like, like first of all,
masculinity was like not cool for a while
and that's cool again, it's on trend. But like, I think you guys do a good job. You show up
in suits. So you're counter position. You're not a podcaster in their bedroom, wearing
hoodie, right? I wore my this is like a wedding outfit I had from like an old Indian wedding.
I was like, I got to dress right, because you've created a brand that says that's how
we behave here. We're gentlemen here.
You have this aesthetic, right?
But it's all counter-positioned.
It would not work if every podcast already looked
the way you look.
You would get no credit for it.
The other example that's relevant is,
there's a very popular podcast that we're fans of
that notoriously does not run ads.
And it'll be obvious.
It's the number one technology podcast in the world.
They don't run ads.
So we came out and we said, we're gonna run a bunch of ads.
Yeah, we're doing it for the money.
Most podcasters, oh, we just like the community,
just the reach.
And we happened to run ads and we were like,
we're doing this for the money.
It's the most profitable podcast.
And it was, it was, you know, it was just for fun.
Talk about-
There's one other in the branding thing that's important
is you're only gonna get credit for what's weird. in the branding thing that's important is you're only going to get credit
for what's weird.
Sure.
Yeah, that makes sense.
You should make a list of what's weird about you or about your brand or that you do that's
unusual.
That might even be controversial.
It might even be that it's unpopular or people would say that's too far, too much.
So if you want to have a strong brand, start writing a list of what's weird. And if that list is only one or two things long, you're not going to have much really to talk about.
We talked to a founder yesterday at demo day who pitched and he just named his company Pig.
It's just called Pig. And he's like, I just like, it was like, I honestly thought it was a great name.
It was a great name.
Nobody's going to forget. I don't remember any of the other names.
Very hard to remember.
And I remember Pig. it's a great name.
And he's just roll around in the mud.
Yep.
And I actually remember what he does.
I mean, he does this data integration,
cleaning up legacy cold bases, very much rolling around
in the mud.
He's not afraid to get dirty.
Solo founder just comes in and cleans up your code base.
He's just the pig.
Talk about the opportunity around investing in creators
and creator businesses.
I think you've talked about this sort of the Mr. Beast
empire quite a lot.
There's, you know, Slow Ventures came out recently.
They have a dedicated creator fund.
You are a creator that's sort of creating value
in all these different ways.
What do you think the opportunity is in that space? And are you making investments
there yourself?
I think the bigger opportunity is the creators investing, not investing in creators. So,
you know, like, like our business is very simple, right? So we, we have this podcast,
My First Million, and it, as it grew, we had sponsors who wanted to come in and sponsor
it. And we said yes, for a while. We got really excited.
Like, oh my God, this is crazy. We're getting paid to talk.
But then you realize like media is a pretty shit business model.
And so the trick is to do media to build media is great at a few things.
Right. It's great at building brand and distribution and awareness and all those things.
But it's pretty terrible at monetizing.
And so the trick is to monetize with investing.
And so what we did was I would go private equity style and I would buy, I bought a piece
of this business, somewhere.com.
It's like an offshore hiring platform.
So you need talent in the Philippines or you want a developer in Latam, like get somebody
for five times less than you will in the States.
Right.
That's the pitch.
So instead of them just sponsoring us and me taking ad dollars and then them getting
obviously some multiple of that, otherwise why would they keep me taking ad dollars and then them getting obviously some multiple of that.
Otherwise, why would they keep giving us ad dollars?
Right. They're clearly getting an ROI off of that.
I went and I actually just purchased a chunk of the company and said, great.
Now I own a piece of this company.
I own the equity in it and I will grow this company.
I can buy it even at a totally fair price.
Right. I don't need a deal because if it's at this much.
And when we
bought that business, it was making millions a year in profit. So like it was already seven
multiple seven figures of profit and now it's eight figures of profit, right? Because I was able to
grow that using my audience. So I was my own private equity. And the beauty of this is that
media knows a lot about audience and distribution and growth, but it knows nothing about private
equity. Private equity knows a lot about it doing deals and knows nothing about media and distribution and growth, but it knows nothing about private equity. Private equity knows a lot about it doing deals
and knows nothing about media and distribution and growth.
And so marrying the two together
is what's actually happening.
So, Or Mosey is doing this, right?
That's his model.
I'm doing this, that's our model.
And so there will be more people who do this.
Right now, what the creators are doing
is they're just creating their own brand
and they're trying to monetize by being operational.
I think the smart ones will eventually just take chunks of companies and let the
operators like world-class operators do that work and they will be just doing
deals. What do you think of the Doug Demuro cars and bid story?
It's one of my favorites,
but is it a one-off exception to the rule or do you think it's the start of
something new and a bigger trend? No, I mean, that gonna keep happening right right now epic gardening is the best example of this
Oh, yeah watching what he's doing. No, not really break it down
Okay, so
Epic gardening basically he's got this YouTube channel about freaking gardening right so he's like so you know it's great
He's growing. He's like I'm trying to grow like a new breed of zucchini
And he's like kind of do in the look he's got this farm whatever so he's so I think he's a Kevin Kevin is doing this so what he's doing is he's
He's amazing at content and he creeps creating really awesome content and then on the back end he started
Either building his own products or buying so he bought like a seeds company
So there's a seed company was doing X dollars in revenue already
He's able to go acquire that company knowing he's got better distribution than that company has, right?
He's got something they don't have. He's got a giant megaphone to millions of people who are trying to learn gardening from him.
They like, listen and trust him. And so when he says use these seeds, they're going to use those seeds.
When Jimmy says buy this chocolate, they're going to buy that chocolate.
And so like that's the that's the model that they're doing, that he's doing right now.
And so what happened is Churnin went and gave him
tens of millions of dollars of money.
And what he's doing is both building up his own
infrastructure and his own products,
but he's going out and being very acquisitive
and he's acquiring companies that his customers would,
his audience would be customers of, very simple model.
I think that guy, if he does this right,
he could build a billion dollar company as a gardening youtuber that's fantastic
yeah unthinkable a decade ago right yeah yeah I feel like churn in to their
credit was like very early to that trend like it seems like it's becoming very
much a part of the zeitgeist now but I know they were doing it they were
thinking about this stuff very intensely like like almost a decade ago. How do you think about your own personal leverage
in the age of AI?
You've been somebody that's had a lot of leverage,
I think for a long time, right?
You've sort of a major shareholder in multiple businesses,
you have the audience, you're starting new companies,
you're buying companies, but has your level of ambition
sort of 10x,
you know, with some of these new technologies?
Obviously the potential hasn't been fully,
you know, isn't fully here, but it's clearly coming.
And how does that impact sort of your personal roadmap
and how you're thinking about your career?
Yeah, that's a big question.
You know, I think for me over time,
you're right that like you start to learn the leverage game. Okay. So
what is the leverage game? The leverage game is with the same or even fewer inputs, can you get
more outputs? Right? It's a magic trick. I put less effort in or I put less time in or I put less
capital in. Can I get more out? And so how do you do it? Naval says it well, he says, there's the
old ways of leverage, which would be like people. So you hire people, they do the work.
So you hire them, you get thousands of hours of work done by other people. Great. There's capital,
which is investing. Cool. So I've been doing that. But now he's like, there's the new ones, there's
code and there's media. Code is basically a worker that will work. What do you think about a landing page? A landing
page is basically a salesman that's awake 24-7, giving the perfect pitch that you told
them to give with no sick days to every customer everywhere in the world and can do thousands
of customers at once. That's what a landing page is. So that's leverage and that's code.
And now media is what we do with the podcast. So, yeah, I've been dabbling with these different things with AI.
I don't think it's like a
I don't think it's an entirely new form of leverage.
It's more speed and reps.
So I'll give you an example.
Right now, I have this book series that I'm creating.
And I think the old way to write a book and one of the reasons
I didn't want to write a book is if you talk to anybody who writes a book,
they're like it's like they went to N went to nom dude, there's this multi year period where it was just a grind every single day
and it's this terrible experience.
Yeah.
Um, and so I'm writing a book right now and here's literally what I was doing right before
this.
So this is my conversation with Claude.
So I create this little folder and I say, hey Claude, I'm creating a book.
Here's the premise.
And I said, inside this folder, you will find an outline.
You'll find some of my old samples of writing.
I want you to copy my tone of voice and a style guide.
Some of the do's and don'ts of how I think about writing this book.
And I said, you know, right now I only kind of have a loose outline
and really I know kind of what chapter one should be all about.
And I said, draft it. It drafts it.
And so it's basically the equivalent of having a research assistant
and a writing assistant, but who have who has no emotions or feelings.
So I could just it just gives me the draft.
I'm like, no, I don't really like it.
And I don't really have any specific feedback.
Just like, try again. And it just does it again.
It does it again. Like if I told somebody on my team that if they worked hard
and drafted this thing over two days
And they came to me I'd have to like do the freaking compliment sandwich and do I believe you know it's really good
There's some areas for improvement
Yeah, would you mind doing this and now it's gonna take a week and he's gonna go back and every draft is like just a small
Feud that's developing between the me and this person right and so and so I had ended up having to write it myself
And it really having that feud internally also developing between me and this person right? And so I had ended up having to write it myself and
really having that feud internally also and there'd be many days where I'd wake up and see that blank
page and be like do I really want to do this right? So this AI process where I'm like I wake up and
I'm like give me a draft of the chapter. I don't like that first example. Find me another example
that has very similar characteristics. Boom it finds another one. You know come up with a better
analogy. Hey you're being too wordy and it's just I'm getting draft after draft after draft
Try this one in the style of Malcolm Gladwell like to me. This is magic. What's happening? I'm writing this book
I got a full draft of the book in one night just by going back and forth with Claudia was unbelievable
That's amazing and now all the values in the edits. It's the taste. It's the curation at the end and
Yeah, you putting your stamp on it. Yeah
Have you taken anything from
The the five types of wealth by our buddy Sahil bloom on it feels like he did a really good job of creating
infographics that could go viral and he's kind of the you know The andro-tative publishing now in the sense that the book is the book is its own thing, but there it's clippable
It's clippable which is like it's rare for a book to think about that. Are you thinking clip first now?
How are you thinking about that? Um, I don't like to start with growth hacks
Okay, as I think it leads you the wrong way sure
I think you know, I have this channel on my side called clues
You just you just keep you keep you take note of the clues and the time will come where you go back through that
You say you take note of the clues and the time will come where you go back through that you say you know what? I did notice that hey having a couple of killer diagrams
Yeah, really made the book more shareable because you're not sharing a book and saying read this book
You're sharing a killer page or killer visual and people want people then ask wow
How do I get more of that? Is that it? What book is that right?
So you keep that as a clue, but I think you can't let that drive the creative process. Yep
You know, this is a little bit uppity, but I just think there's like, you got to decide like, am I going to try to engineer this,
or am I trying to art this? And like, yeah, I think if you're doing art, you should art it.
And there's a time and a place for that in you that engineering of virality or more sellability.
But I don't want to A B test my way into art art because I'm not doing this for money anyways, right?
Like if I wanted to I might make money from a book, but the way I say it is it's like
Just because a church serves food doesn't mean you go there because you're hungry like, you know
That's not why you go to church
So it's like if you're gonna write a book you should be doing it
Because you have something killer to say and you think you can deliver that message. That's the main thing
Let's keep that the main thing and then yes
We keep track of some ideas some growth act some clues that might be helpful
somewhere along the way well where can people find it when it comes out how can
they make sure that the first one to get a copy of the mail I'm not I mean I'm
not even there yet if you just follow me on Twitter you'll see it along the way
fantastic or my email list SeanPourri.com is the email list well you have to send us an
advanced copy we'll of course on the stream
We're gonna we're gonna do have 24-hour live stream of us reading cover to cover cover to cover. I love it
Yeah, a live audiobook reading cover to cover we need material
Yeah
Sponsored amazing having you on You're the first technology uncle.
Yes, the first technology uncle.
Appreciate you sharing your wisdom.
Uncle of the week.
I'm putting that in my LinkedIn right now.
Fantastic.
You're the man.
You're welcome anytime.
Thank you, Sean.
Thank you, we'll talk to you soon.
Cheers.
Bye.
Bye bye.
Yeah, that was great.
What a pro.
You have the lighting, the mic.
Yeah, he's a pro.
I think you're onto something with the 100-hour work week.
I think you pop into Claude.
You start noodling on it.
Get some good diagrams in there.
You got a ripper.
It's a banger.
It's a banger.
It's a banger.
We have Trey Stevens joining in a few minutes.
We want to ask him about Flock Safety.
They just raised, I'll give some background on Flock.
They're taking over
the timeline today.
Flock Safety writes, when crime is holistically addressed, cities transform.
Families feel safer, businesses thrive and communities flourish.
The energy of a truly safe city is undeniable.
To help accelerate this vision of safe, thriving cities, we're thrilled to announce a $275 million fundraise at a $7.5 billion valuation led by
Andreessen Horowitz with strong backing from Green Oaks
Capital and Bedrock Capital. This investment will power
product innovation, research and development and US based
manufacturing, ensuring we continue to deliver cutting
edge safety solutions that make a real impact. And Jeff Lewis put up a little thread on the timeline as well.
And this is a YC company.
Oh, it is.
Yeah.
That's crazy.
Does get that tag very often.
No, but I think it was in 18.
Yeah. I mean, again, it's like in 2018, everyone's again, the meme was,
oh, YC just a software consumer.
So it's like, this is a hardware security for crime company,
probably completely overlooked at YC.
We'll have to get the founder on.
And I think we have Trey now.
Let's bring him in.
How you doing, Trey?
There he is.
What's up, guys?
How's it going?
We're good.
How's your day going?
Can't complain.
All good so far.
Fantastic.
We were just talking about the Flock safety news. I checked in with the team. It sounded like you met the
founder very early, uh, participate in the seed round. Can you give us a little
background on how you met the founder, what you think of the company and what
today means for them? Yeah, I mean, you know, I've spent a lot of time meeting
with GovTech companies, uh, selling to local governments is incredibly
difficult. Um, I think it's basically just as hard as selling to federal government, except the upside is
significantly less.
So from the very beginning, I was kind of skeptical.
But Garrett won me over.
He's incredibly hard charging, super talented guy, and they figured out how to make the
motion work.
And I think this is like kind of a once in a generation
opportunity to build, you know,
kind of a BMF in the law enforcement space,
a la Axon, which is the company formally named Taser.
And just incredibly, incredibly impressed
with their progress and how quickly they've gone from,
you know, being security for HOAs
to being kind of a state and local law enforcement
capability. So really impressed by the team. Do you remember if they were a hot company when
they were coming out of YC? Was it obvious that they were onto something? It feels like a company
that would have been under the radar back in 2018, but what was your take back then?
Yeah, I wouldn't say that they were under the radar. They've gotten great rounds done,
and the team has grown incredibly well.
So I wouldn't call it under the radar, but it also wasn't.
I just meant at demo day, like when they were coming out
of YC, because we were there yesterday.
And there's this sense that everybody's
got so much energy and excitement.
And if you're just meeting somebody at demo day,
it's almost impossible to tell if they're really
on a crazy trajectory or not.
Yeah, I don't think they were the company that everyone
was talking about coming out of Demo Day.
Doing work in law enforcement was not super trendy.
It seems to be much more trendy today than it was then, though.
Yeah, it is.
Although we were joking about it used to be Uber for dogs at YC,
now it's Andoril for dogs,
but it really was cursor for dogs, actually, yesterday.
There was way more AI agent companies
than defense tech companies, but overall-
But honestly, let's take a moment
to just applaud Gary Tan for what he's done
with Y Combinator.
100%.
It is a completely different beast.
A single day, like crazy. What is it? Like 150, a hundred something
companies. Uh, everybody crammed in. There's like cool hardware being like
demoed at. I mean, it's just like, yeah, like good job on Gary. I mean,
he's just done an awesome, awesome, uh, job,
kind of reinvigorating the brand and bringing something back that,
that was missing before.
Yeah, 100%. He's completely flipped it back into founder mode somehow. He's really making
aggressive changes and just doing what's necessary to keep the momentum going. It's a 20-year-old
company at this point. You got to have some new blood, some new ideas. On flock safety,
they've often been called the palantir of local government or the androel of local government.
Is that even the
right comparison or are they just something completely different? How do you think about
the business and where it goes over the long term? Well, I mean, I think it's the better analogy is
probably Anderil rather than Palantir. There's obviously like a meaningful software component
to what it is that Flock is doing, but it's also like deploying vertical systems end to end, whether it's camera systems or command and control
for drones for intelligence surveillance
and reconnaissance missions.
They just completed this acquisition of Aerodome,
which I think gives them this really cool extension
into drone operations.
So yeah, I think it's like a reasonably good analogy.
And I think they've got a clear shot
at picking up a bunch of market
that there's just not a whole lot of other companies
that are anywhere near being competitive with them on.
Totally.
What's the number one reason you pass on companies
that wanna sell to the government
and why is it distribution?
Yeah, no, my chief of staff, Elliot Lintermeier and I,
we call it a field of dreams problem
where the founders will come in and they'll say like,
if I build it, they will come.
Like that, I just have to build a cool product
and then everyone's gonna show up and throw money at me.
And with the government, it's just not true.
I would actually argue that it's harder to sell
to the government than it is to build a product that's relevant to the government.
So you have to figure out how to make the sales motion work. Companies like Flock, I think have,
they've dug their heels in, they figured out like what you have to do at the city council level,
what you have to do at the chief of police level, what you have to do with the, you know,
local populace level from HOAs on up.
They figured out the motion that gives them that superpower. The reality is, now that they're
embedded and they understand the sales motion, building out a product suite that addresses a
wide set of problems is going to make it much easier for them to penetrate breadth as well as
depth. I think the sales part of it is the one that's hard to figure out.
Now what that means for Founders Fund, practically speaking in GovTech, is that we tend to want
to write more concentrated checks once you see production usage of a technology working,
because it demonstrates that the founder has figured out how to get that those sales done
in the products into any usage in the field.
There's just so many companies that are great idea factories and maybe cool
technology, but they can't quite crack the business development nut.
Yeah.
How, to me, that feels like one of the biggest opportunities for
Andrew all in the next five years is you kind of have all this off
balance sheet sort of R and D spending, which is like all these
new defense tech companies being funded, you know, really smart people building cool things.
And then, you know, they maybe hit this like distribution wall. You guys have been acquisitive,
obviously in the past, is that going to continue to be, you know, an important part of the
strategy? Or you feel like you're more going to be focused sort of internally going forward? I won't say publicly on
the Technology Bros podcast that we want cool technology companies to fail
because they're bad at business development. Okay. But, yeah, those do present
interesting opportunities for us from an M&A perspective for sure. Got it.
Well, let's move on to I've asked.
I want to know, obviously this is a deal like the HoloLens project coming over from Microsoft,
huge contract.
I didn't even know that these contracts could change hands in this way.
Why, how did this deal come about?
How does it even work?
I mean, obviously there's prime contractors, subcontractors.
You could imagine a different world where Microsoft just comes to you to kind of, you know, act as a subcontractor,
but that's not what happened here.
So can you break it down and give us a little bit of overview on the deal and kind of where it goes from here?
Yeah, I mean, the long history on the enderal side of things is that obviously when we, when Palmer and I started ruminating
on this company back in 2017, the obvious question that everyone asked us is, are you
going to build head mounted displays for soldiers?
I mean, it's just so obvious.
Palmer is the greatest VR designer, inventor in world history.
Obviously, that's the thing that we would probably be focused on, right?
But Palmer actually had an interesting answer to this.
He would tell people, the basic science, the research that needs to happen from a physics
perspective is not there yet.
Of course, I could build something, but it wouldn't be quite right.
It would be too heavy or the experience wouldn't be real enough.
It would disconnect people from the operation that they're conducting in the field.
Basically, his answer was, I don't think it can be done, so I'm not going to be the
one that burns a bunch of cycles doing it.
Now in the meantime, Microsoft went out and won this tens of billions of dollar program
called IVAS.
People would constantly be asking Palmer, what's going on with this?
Do you think it's going to work?
And he's like, I thought it was going to work.
We would have bid on it and like we would have the contract,
that's obvious. And so it was just kind of one of these moments of waiting to see what happened.
And then, you know, over the last six to nine months, we've kind of had this opportunity to
go and spend time with the Microsoft team and say, you know, Palmer feels much more strongly about
this now. He feels like we can pull it off.
There's a real opportunity ahead of us.
The Army is incredibly excited about us coming in
to kind of take this over and bring it to the next level.
And we jumped at that opportunity.
And I'm excited to see where it goes in the coming years.
On the cultural side, it feels like of all the big tech
companies, Microsoft's maybe been the most friendly
to working with the military this whole time.
Do you envision, like what does a high functioning
Microsoft look like in partnership with the DoD?
I mean, imagine just spreadsheets, co-pilot,
just basic stuff to manage bases and manage workflows.
Is that how they should be plugging in
or do you see them playing a different role going forward?
Yeah, I mean, look, Microsoft builds a lot of things that are incredibly important to the defense enterprise, you know, like the basically everything in defense runs on Windows, just like it does
anywhere else in the enterprise. You know, Azure cloud is a is it has a huge presence in the GovCloud
ecosystem. There's, you There's Microsoft applications that lay across
every critical piece of infrastructure that exists
inside of the DoD.
And they, as you said, they have been much more willing
than the other big tech companies
to think of themselves as an American company,
which is incredibly important,
and also be willing to work with the government on programs
where there's potentially even lethality
at the end of whatever kill chain they're participating in.
So tons of respect for Microsoft
and their willingness to do that.
Brad Smith, the president there has been going
to the Reagan National Defense Forum for a decade.
I mean, he's very embedded in this community.
So I do think that there's a role to play.
And as part of our work on IVAS,
we are going to continue leveraging IP that they built
as part of that program.
We'll continue to leverage Azure as a core cloud capability
as part of the program.
And I only wish the other big tech companies were as willing
as they are to work on these important programs.
That's great. Let's talk about Arsenal.
Obviously, the site is selected now, but what are the next big steps for you as you build
that out?
I saw some pictures.
It seems like the first like hanger.
I don't even know what you call it.
The big building has been toured, but what's coming down the pipe?
Yeah, Arsenal exists.
Site selection is over.
We're building a factory just south of Columbus, Ohio.
The first, call it 800,000 square feet, is already kind of there and ready for us to construct into.
The challenge for us for the next call it 16 months, we'll be building out that first building and getting product lines
stood up so that we can start producing at scale
the capabilities that we're being asked to produce,
which include things like Fury, our autonomous jet fighter,
Barracuda, which is a class of cruise missiles,
low cost modular cruise missiles,
Roadrunners, which is our reusable interceptor.
And right now those capabilities are being built
either at headquarters in limited quantity or at some of our kind of ancillary facilities.
And Arsenal is going to be the attempt to bring all of that together in a modular and flexible
factory environment. And I think we'll have that initial capability up and running sometime around
June or July of next year of 2026.
What would the timeline be for a legacy defense contractor to stand up a space like Arsenal?
Would they be planning it on a 10-year time horizon?
We want to get this new facility up in 2035.
How do you guys think about pacing?
Yeah, the thing is the old defense industry model is like, wait for the
contract and then bill by the hour.
Basically, that's how it works.
The annual model is spend our own money and build what matters now.
And so could they do it?
Could they build like mega scale factories?
Yeah, if the government was paying for it and they had some plan for how to eke out,
their same sort of growth and margin structure
that they have historically eked out.
The benefit here is that we're not waiting
for the Pentagon to tell us what to build.
We're not waiting for the US taxpayer to show up to fund it.
Our plan is to bring private capital to work
to solve some of these important problems
and we're just gonna build.
That's how we're gonna approach it.
And we've had a great track record
of converting that into production.
And we have a very willing buyer
on the other side of the table right now.
And that's kind of our short-term plan.
Do you feel like you get the respect
that we think you deserve in DC now?
I can imagine in 2017, in the early days,
you go around DC first, they maybe ignore you,
then they sort of will talk to you,
but don't take you seriously.
Do you feel like, you know, Andrew,
when you guys are on the ground in DC,
that you're getting this sort of appreciation
from the government now?
Obviously you're winning contracts,
but is the average, you know,
is the average senator there we go. Is the is the average senator, you know, excited to meet with
you guys and, you know, work together? Yeah, you know, we're in a great position right now.
Obviously, we've been around for seven and a half years through both Republican and Democratic administrations.
Defense is totally bipartisan.
It's like the only spending bill that goes
with flying colors through Congress every year.
We don't feel particularly impacted by politics.
We do feel particularly impacted by leadership
that has a vision for how they want to go into the future and lean into these commercial opportunities
that are going to be much more efficient and deliver capabilities faster than the traditional kind of exquisite systems
driven by requirements process way that the DOD has been running their business for a long time.
So, you know, we've I think we've scaled a number of different programs really effectively.
And as a result, people in DCC us as, you know, a real company, not a startup anymore.
And I think that that just gives us additional leverage to go and pick up bigger and bigger contracts over time.
Let's talk about humanoids. Obviously, it a very trendy space, humanoid robotics. You
probably see every pitch under the sun. Some of it feels a little early, a little demo,
but at the same time, you know, Boston Dynamics has been building this stuff for 20 years.
I remember ASMO and there's clearly something real here. How are you feeling about the current
environment around humanoid robotics?
Yeah, I mean, it's a flashy space. There's a lot of demos.
People are trying to figure out what practical utility looks like.
There are probably some use cases where humanoids makes a lot of sense.
There are also a lot of use cases where you can get better bang for the buck with
systems that don't need to walk around. They can still do some really cool things.
need to walk around. They can still do some really cool things. And as with most of these
kind of AI companies, I think the big question in the venture community at least is,
do we or do we not kamikaze round? And I think the word kamikaze is a really good way of framing it, because it's like, maybe you win the war, but maybe you're dead. Yeah. And I think, you know, going out and raising these mega rounds at massive
prices, um, it kind of reminds me of the self-driving car phenomenon where you
had these companies that understandably were capital intensive.
And it was like, man, if it works, it's going to be great.
Everybody's going to make a lot of money.
The price doesn't really matter.
Um, but if it takes too long, I mean, you're in trouble.
You've just kamikaze and, uh, I think that's kind of what we're looking at for the most part here in
The humanoid space as well. One thing I've noticed is that it feels like every few months
There's a new viral video of Chinese drone light show
Some dragon flying around the sky and everyone immediately comments like this is military capability
I feel like people are aware of of like these drone demonstrations that maybe aren't fully ready to change the battlefield
But are scary looking and I wonder if the tune around
humanoid robotics is gonna change once you see a
Thousand of these guys walking down the street marching in Tiananmen Square or something. Oh, totally
I mean if we start seeing humanoid robots like carrying javelin missiles up mountains or something, yeah, let's do another podcast.
Okay.
Conversation about that.
Yeah, but we're not there yet. We'll have to have you back on.
Switching over the other pond, do you think that Europe will, you know, meaningfully sort of refocus their industrial base on defense. We've seen their sort of automotive industry
really struggle over the last few years,
particularly with potentially renewed interests
from Western Europe and sort of taking care
of their own security.
Do you see them basically meaningfully adapting
that sort of automotive infrastructure
into defense manufacturing capacity?
Well, I wouldn't say that I've seen like automotive shifting to defense necessarily, but with the obvious exception of Saab,
which literally doesn't make cars anymore and they focus on defense, but I don't think that had anything to do with this European moment.
I think it has something to do with Saab not running a very good car.
But uh, but you know, one of the things we're going to see, I think,
as there's been this increased push for Europe to spend money on their own defense rather
than relying entirely on the United States is that as a percentage of GDP, you probably
will see a lot more money in Europe going towards defense, which I would argue is probably
net positive for the continent. And it also reduces the burden on the United States to step up and do kind of more than
we believe is our fair share.
Now the downside of that for US businesses is that the more made in America we become,
the more made in national prosperity the European nations will become.
And I think due to the nature of Europe, that will end up being pretty fragmented.
The French government's going to want to buy from French companies, the German government's
going to want to buy from German companies and so forth.
And so I definitely think that impacts the way that defense companies should think about
expansion into Europe, because there's just going to be this nationalism thread that runs
through it that you just need to be mindful of, either from a partnerships perspective or where you're spending your time trying
to grow internationally.
Yeah.
How does that play out in the venture capital markets?
Obviously, you know, American defense tech companies don't take VC dollars from China,
for example.
But do you think a German VC could invest in a French defense tech company and that
would be kosher? How do you think about that?
I mean, I think they can do that.
This is mostly about storytelling, like they need to connect back to the nationalism,
the nationalist agenda in each of these countries.
And there are great defense companies in Europe, startups in particular.
You know, you have companies like Quantum Systems and in Germany
and Stark Industries, which flows out of quantum systems, you have Helsing.
Um, and they're each of these companies is going to need to tell a story about
why they're German or why they're French or why they're Italian or whatever.
Um, I don't know exactly how to do that, but that, that will be a burden
that they're going to have to carry.
Makes sense.
Uh, can we move on to good quests?
I want to hear the high level thesis again.
You just had an event around it.
Break it down and they have some follow up questions.
Yeah.
Back in 2022, Markie Wagner, who's a Teal Fellow and I like hung out around a campfire
late one night and kind of we're complaining about what we see people doing in the tech
industry.
And the basic conceit of the argument is that the venture capital community is filled with
all these super talented former entrepreneurs or whatever.
And they've taken the route of Big Head in Silicon Valley, the HBO show, where they're
just kind of like resting, investing, just kind of chilling out, making lifestyle decisions
while writing angel checks.
And that feels like a real moral failure of tech
because the founders that are operating on Godmode
should be focused on the hardest, most important quests.
Like if we need to rebuild semiconductor manufacturing
in the United States,
I would really like some
of these incredibly wealthy, incredibly talented people to step in and have an opinion about
how that's going to get done.
But instead, we're like kind of sidelining or starting like, you know, easy enterprise
SaaS companies or something like that, because it's the easiest way to print money.
And so that's really what GoodQuest was all about is like, have you taken the time, you
know, tech operator, tech entrepreneur, have you taken the time to evaluate the quest that
you're on to discern, is it a good one?
Is it a bad one?
Is it too easy?
Is it too hard?
Are you, you know, an 18 year old college dropout trying to build a semiconductor company?
I don't know. Maybe that's not the right company for you to build as your first step out.
So that's really what the call was in the essay.
And it kind of blew up far more than I expected it to.
Yeah, it's a phenomenal piece. If you haven't read it, you should definitely go check it out.
But following up on that, there's some questions about like in our culture, I feel like some of the really, really important like the reshoring semiconductor manufacturing, we have this
tendency that I hear in tech that only the true top tier elite can solve these problems.
You hear about like, oh, if we got to save Intel, it's got to be Elon stepping in or
else no one else can do it.
And I'm wondering if there's almost like too much consolidation around like we only have a few heroes, a few
hero units on the battlefield and that's honestly taking people are like oh well
like you know maybe Elon will get around to it but if he doesn't like I don't
want to be I don't want to be run over by him if he changes his mind and decides
to go into my industry. Is there something culturally that we need to
change around that and not putting all our eggs in one basket on these incredible entrepreneurs who I
think really could do amazing things, but at a certain point they can only do so many revolutionaries?
Yeah, that's exactly the right question. And I think the answer is, of course, you don't have
to be like that to do it. It's just much easier if you are. I mean, you don't have to be like that to do it. It's just much easier if you are.
I mean, you don't have to look any further than Space Launch to see this.
It's like the billionaire space cowboys, Elon, Bezos, Branson.
It's like it turns out that it's way easier to get a rocket into space if a billionaire
is bankrolling your company.
And I don't think every problem looks like that, but some of them do.
And so if you don't have the ability to bankroll and backstop,
like maybe you should evaluate, am I world-class, like generationally good at fundraising?
And if the answer is yes, go for it.
Yeah, there's no reason not to.
But fundraising is a skill.
It's not something that's like, I think a lot of founders that have a hard time fundraising
tend to say like, well, the VCs, they don't get it.
It's like, yeah, okay, I'll admit there are sometimes I legitimately don't get it.
I try not to invest in categories where I legitimately don't get it.
But many of the times it's that the VCs will meet with the founder and they'll be like,
man, this person is really bad at pitching.
And if I feel like they're really bad at telling the story and raising capital, that means
that other investors that they're going to need are also going to believe that
they're really bad.
Well, it's also the customers, the employees.
The customer, yeah. And so I think a lot of founders that have trouble need to be a little
bit more introspective and say, do I have the ability to raise the amount of money that's
required to pull off this audacious vision? And the answer might be no.
Yeah, following up on that, kind of flipping it around,
there's a lot of industries that have produced
a lot of financial return.
I'm thinking of the gambling companies,
the OnlyFans companies,
the kind of get rich quick crypto schemes.
And I wonder, in the best case,
the free market is a weighing machine for good quests.
And I would imagine that only good quests should be rewarded financially, and yet they
don't.
And so you kind of get into this question of, should we have more regulation?
Should we try and tax or dissuade or ban certain things that fall into the bad quest category?
I don't know if that applies to the you know, the lazy angel investor, but,
um, but maybe for some of the, some of the more crazy bad quests, um,
well, I would say the lazy angel investor is a moral decision.
Sure.
Like, uh, sidelining yourself from working on the most important things is
not morally neutral.
Yeah.
Like there is a, there is a moral judgment that's being made there.
Um, you know, I, I often think about this as a quad chart where the quadrants are like is good is bad feels good feels bad
Yep, that's society. I think we're like maybe too good at the feels good is good. This is like do-gooder stuff
It's like health care
Child development stuff. It's like education sustainability
Everyone agrees that these things are good. but what that means is that the categories
end up being hyper competitive.
Totally.
It's like so consensus,
there's so many companies being built.
And then we also kind of totally agree
on the feels bad, is bad.
It's like, yeah, murder's bad, stealing's bad,
assault is bad, like we should not do those things.
It's the other diagonal that I think is the most interesting.
Only fans, gambling I think is the most interesting. Only fans,
gambling, I think falls in the feels good is bad camp. Society has somehow managed to convince
ourselves that there's some freedom of expression or something like that that should be protected.
And I agree, freedom of speech, I'm all for it. But that doesn't mean that there's no moral judgment
of what that's doing to society. I would actually even put online dating in that category.
And then the other quadrant is the feels bad is good.
This is what I would classify as duty and responsibility.
So going back to the flock safety thing,
not everyone agrees on law enforcement policy,
but it turns out that drugs are bad and crime is is bad and as a society, we should be committed to
leveraging the government's monopoly on violence to ensure
that people aren't destroying themselves in society in the
pursuit of some vain quest. Yeah. And I think that that not
enough gets built in that category. And that's both positive because it's an opportunity to build something that's non-competitive.
And it's also a curse because it means that we have too few people working on the most
important things.
In terms of improving the moral backbone of maybe the next generation, you've talked a
lot about civil service.
How do you see that kind of playing out?
Could that be a remedy to some of this responsibility
to the community, to the country, et cetera?
Yeah, I mean, look, I think authoritarian governments
are bad in a lot of ways, and we should not
aspire to be an authoritarian government.
And yet, they have a massive advantage
against democratic governments, because they can mandatorily
conscript their most talented people into working on society's greatest problems.
We don't have that ability. I don't want us to have that ability. But man, wouldn't it be great
if we had some mechanism to get our best and brightest, kind of in the way that Israel does,
to do two years of civil service coming out of high school.
I think that would do a couple of things.
First, it would actually like give us the people
that we need to execute on national priorities.
Secondly, though, I think it would expose people
to how hard the government is.
And instead of getting locked into these tribal
ideological movements, they would be able to see
how difficult it is to get things done and they would be way more incentivized.
They would feel way more motivated to actually fix the things that are broken that would improve our quality of life and our ability to grow and prosper as a nation.
How do those hybrid models like Teach for America, Code for America, how do those fit in?
Are those just like stop gaps that don't go far enough or are they, are we on the right path with the programs like those?
I think it's the right path.
These are good programs.
Notably, these are after college.
I don't know, maybe that's the right time to do it.
Maybe it's not.
But I think they're a good step,
but they're just not a big enough step.
I think probably some tiny, tiny percentage
of graduates from top engineering schools
are even familiar with what Code for America is.
And it would be great if that was being integrated
directly into the government
rather than a nonprofit organization
that has relationships with governments.
It's just not quite as effective.
Sure, you got a last question?
We gotta let him go. You got a last question? We got to let them go.
We got one minute, I guess, extrapolating on the good quest concepts.
I think something that is important for maybe our audience to understand is that
good quests aren't just power law companies, right?
It's there's this tendency in Silicon Valley, like everybody, you know,
you know, it's not everybody, but many people aspire to be a founder.
And, you know, some of the best quests you could go on are like working for an
andorol, working for a SpaceX, things like that.
But what are the other sort of like extrapolate sort of the good quest
concepts around, you know, maybe it's starting a new church in your community.
Maybe that's like, you know, do you find yourself advising sort of people in your network around not
always aiming for the power law company and saying like, hey, you can have an extremely
meaningful impact, even at a sort of smaller scale that still is a worthy use of your time?
Yeah, I mean, being a founder is not the only way to be on a good quest. I had someone ask me last night actually,
if I thought that JRR Tolkien had a good quest
by writing Lord of the Rings.
And my answer is absolutely.
I mean, can you think of any bigger deal
than like building a world that inspires generations
long after you're gone?
So no, I don't think it's about being a founder.
I think there are a lot of different good quests.
I think the real question is this question of like, you know, every serious country over
the course of human history has wanted to turn their young people into executors and
builders that are going to grow and create prosperity and, you know, pull everyone up
along with them.
Right now in the United States, we don't really
have that anymore. For the first time since I think the 1960s, the most aspirational job is being an
influencer rather than an astronaut. We should question what we're doing as a society if that's
what we end up believing is the most aspirational thing to do as a child. And children are, I think,
the most important in this equation because when we're young, everybody aspires to greatness. Like,
every child is thinking like, I want to be a musician. I want to be an astronaut. I want to
be like an inventor. And then by the time that they go through the college experience, they get
pooped out on the other end. And it's like, I'm a McKinsey consultant. It's like, whoa, bro,
where did you lose your aspiration for greatness? Like, how does that even happen?
And I think that's just a serious problem that we need to
be thinking about as a culture and society.
For sure. Well, thanks so much for joining. Great to have you.
We'll have to have you back soon. Thanks so much. All right.
Sounds good. Cheers. Bye.
Good fun. Good quest. Yes. yes yeah great interviews today really really ran the
gamut with all sorts of folks early stage late stage all sorts of stuff do
you want to do some timeline and then wrap it up what are you thinking yeah
let's do it okay I don't want to hit the road too late okay well we got another
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Yeah, what else what else good luck we have
Let's see. I got a rip suit through these here Nikunj Kothari says new final boss YC challenge unlocked ten million dollars an ARR is not cool
You know, what's cool ten million an MRR.R you know what's cooler 5 million in monthly profit
this is the company we were hunting for I don't think we met them Trey would Trey would be very
upset you happy about this one it's a quote here a screenshot trade meme coins perpetuals and earn
yield axiom is a trading platform for decentralized finance and currently offers meme coins perpetuals
and yield since launch we've hit 10 million MRR and five million monthly net profit.
Wow.
Yeah, nothing can scale faster than these crypto companies.
It's wild.
I mean, we maybe talked about this on the stream yesterday,
but there was a YC batch that 20% of the companies
were digital asset related, I feel like.
During the crypto boom.
Yeah, yeah, this was 20%.
I think that's literally when Trace thought to write
good questions.
Yeah, and technically, I don't know the exact statistic.
That was sort of what it felt like.
So vibes-based analysis.
But then it went basically down to zero.
There was a batch that everybody in crypto,
I think this was honestly, like in 2023,
was like there's no crypto companies in YC
that's actually extremely bullish.
That's like when you should start
the new crypto company.
But this one I didn't see.
Summer 2012, like that was the only crypto company.
We saw some companies yesterday in the batch
that were doing stable coin,
more like Neobank focused stuff that were cool.
But yeah, this company is just printing.
Well, if you're making five million in monthly profit,
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We got a good post by Person of Swag, Adam.
Been on the show before.
Two weeks ago, I sold all my belongings,
broke up with my GF, and moved to SF to build NoSlop,
the Chrome extension that removes slop from your 4U tab.
It's like ad block but for slop, no slop.
You can go check it out on the Chrome web store.
I thought this was funny, I think it's a meme,
but this whole like I sold everything I moved
is becoming such a meme that of course he had to jump in.
But it does seem like a cool app, a cool plugin.
It gives you a slop score for everything that you see.
Imagine being, let's say you have a podcast
and you install this and you just never see your podcast.
Oh, terrible.
You get, you gotta really look in the mirror.
You get deemed slop.
It's like looking in the mirror,
gotta question everything every what's hilarious
Is that it sorts your feed into the home tab which is slop free and then the slop trough I?
Mean that's funny
Let's see what else we have oh Michelle Obama is a youtuber now speaking of you know Trey everyone wants to be an influencer
Sager and jetty writes I had to go check and see if these numbers were real.
Genuinely astonishing.
I could upload a video of me picking my nose
and get more views and subs than this.
Michelle Obama, she's early to the YouTube game.
It is a grind.
It's a grind.
It's a grind, it takes time.
It took me a long time to get to 16K.
Took me even longer to get to 400K.
She's sitting at 16.9K subscribers
and pulling
13,000 views on the last
Interview that she did with Issa Rae and so needs to call some growth hackers get these thumbnails dialed in here's one of the challenges I'm looking this up right now, and it's it's actually she's got so many other videos about her. It's hard
Oh, it's hard to find her channel. Maybe that's the problem her to find her channel
I mean she's an example of someone
who maybe doesn't need her own podcast
and instead should just be on a podcast circuit
promoting things.
I don't know, she says she got a new episode
every Wednesday, so she's committed.
We don't like that.
It's looking professional though.
Why don't you try Go Daily, Michelle?
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stream constantly.
That's the way you win in this game.
Well, Michelle, if you want to stand out,
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I'm sure you could find something fantastic.
You probably already have a bunch of watches.
Maybe you want to sell your watches, Michelle.
Hop on Bezel. I'm looking this up quickly. I don't Maybe you wanna sell your watches, Michelle. Hop on bezel.
I'm looking this up quickly.
Sell some watches, dump it into.
We got a, I got this pulled up.
Yeah.
Barack Obama watch collection.
It's a fantastic one.
Got a nice, I mean.
I've talked about it before.
He was gifted a watch by one of the security members,
the Secret Service guys.
Yeah, so he has one that's a,
do you even know this brand?
Jorg Gray?
Yeah.
Jorg Gray.
No, I don't know.
There's a chronograph he has
that's called the Secret Service.
Oh, there you go.
That's good.
Anyways, he's got, honestly, not as big of a collection
as he should have, given that they both sold their book
rights for something around 65.
And they have a Netflix deal.
They're rolling money.
They need to deploy it into watches.
So Barack, if you're listening, get on Bezel.
Peter Diamandis recently interviewed Palmer Lucky
on stage.
And he had to ask Palmer Lucky if there's
an Iron Man suit coming soon.
His answer, maybe-ish.
I'll take it.
Yeah, Palmer's done.
He gets asked this question all the time, interesting take,
I've heard him expand on it on the Sean Ryan show.
I love this, so the next post in here, by the way,
is a quote from Palmer.
I want to kill companies that deserve to die,
I believe, in efficient markets.
That's great.
And it's sort of contrasted with Trey's approach
when I asked him about, you know, are you excited for all this off balance
sheet R&D for these companies that will build good products?
And he was like, well, no, but we'll explore opportunities.
Meanwhile, Palmer is saying, I will kill.
I don't think he's talking about early stage companies.
No, no, no.
I think he's talking about the legacy.
The big legacy companies.
But it's great.
But it certainly is on the mind of early stage
defense tech founders.
They're thinking that would be the best possible soft landing
for them if they can't crack the distribution puzzle.
Yeah, totally.
I mean, I've been to Andrews' office in DC.
It is a serious operation. And you know. I mean, I've been to Andrews office in DC. It is a series operation
and you know why I like it? Business casual required. You gotta wear a suit. Smart. The
entire office dresses up, which is great. Everyone looks fantastic and they're ready
if a Senator comes by, representative comes by, they look sharp because they're going
back and forth to the hill all day long. Well, we got a, oh yeah, Palmer expanded
on the Iron Man suit concept on the Sean Ryan show.
It was pretty interesting.
He was saying that it's actually very high risk
to build exoskeletons because you're giving this machine,
which is incredibly, by definition,
if it's giving you super strength,
it has enough strength to just immediately rip you apart,
break your arms, do anything very dangerous.
So he was saying like, maybe it comes,
but maybe it's remotely piloted
and you never really sit in it.
But we'll have to ask him more about that
and get him on the show.
Anyway, moving on, Keon over at Nucleus has a,
he says he's about to drop
the hardest hitting product announcement video
he's ever done this Friday.
We have a special guest in the video, Molly O'Shea.
Who wants to guess what we're announcing?
I like the cameo strategy.
Smart.
Cameos are smart.
Yeah, crossover.
We're having Kion?
Yeah, I think we'll have him on tomorrow.
Break it down.
I've heard a little teaser of what it is.
It's very fascinating.
If you're not familiar with Nucleus,
it's a 23andMe competitor, essentially,
but built on the next generation of technology
that can actually sequence your full genome,
give you much, much deeper insight
into what could potentially go wrong with your health,
and recommend interventions, essentially.
And so he's a very, very sharp scientist
who's been working on this company for a long time.
Deleon invested, I think, at the seed round,
and he has a similar energy to DeLion,
so I'm very excited to have him on the show.
This is an interesting one.
Greg Eisenberg was quote tweeted by Pat Grady
over at Sequoia talking about vibe revenue.
Did you read this at all?
What is vibe revenue?
Money from customers paying out of curiosity or FOMO
rather than solving real problems.
It's the business equivalent of an impulse purchase
that shows up as AR as ARR
on fundraising decks warning signs high initial conversion rates
Plus short-term growth curves poor retention past three to six months limited account expansion easy
User switching to alternatives the lifecycle sizzle a slick AI demo
Wow's people traction tech enthusiasts flood in VC VC interests, growth metrics impress, fundraise, valuations skyrocket, reality, product doesn't change workflows,
plateau, growth flattens quietly, and then zombie,
cash in the bank, but the metrics are falling.
Very interesting and something I don't know if we'll see more
of.
I don't even think Jeremy will be there to save these ones.
Who knows?
Yeah, I mean, they have to build a real business retention.
Yeah, it's interesting that people have always pushed back
on founders
for using ARR incorrectly.
But the excuse has always been ARR
is both annual recurring revenue and annualized run rate.
And they're just obviously different things,
because annualized run rate could be you have a big month,
and then you just multiply it by 12x.
It's not a super.
The Aurora CEO, my co-founder, he
always hates when people in e-commerce are like, oh, yeah,
I'm at x run rate, because he's like, that means nothing.
Yeah, because they could just go away.
E-commerce is seasonal.
You could just take your first two weeks of.
Totally.
And something I saw earlier on the timeline today
was somebody taking two weeks of their revenue,
multiplying it by two, and then multiplying it by 12.
And it's just like, at that point, do it a day.
A day, or one hour.
Multiply it by 30, and then by 12.
Yeah.
Exactly.
One good hour on Ecommerce on Black Friday.
We send an email.
Take the second, the biggest invoice ever.
And then just multiply it.
Yep.
But yeah, so to be clear, when investors are looking
at this, they're saying, this isn't ARR.
You are at a certain run rate.
These customers could leave at any time.
They're not contracted to actually stay with you
for a year at a time or more.
So yeah, I mean, I just think that this is definitely
a really good sort of summary of-
Not all ARR is created equal.
You look at Flock Safety,
they're signing multi-year contracts
with police departments.
Like that's not, there might be a testing phase,
but once they get installed and the cameras are up
and the police department's using it and the HOA's have approved and
The you know, they've done their work that Trey mentioned at the at the City Council level and the police chief level
That's gonna be a lot stickier than a business, you know clicked. Oh, yeah, we'll try this $200 a month AI product
Anyway, there's a little bit of trouble in the stove world right now.
Drew Fallon is highlighting solo brands,
stock is capitulating down 63% alone today.
The company's market cap is now $22 million.
Something is really going wrong
because this company is massive.
They own Solo Stove, which are those smokeless outdoor stoves
that you can get at Christmas present. And Chubbies, which I think smokeless outdoor stoves that you can get, good Christmas present,
and Chubbies, which I think is the men's fashion brand,
essentially, overall sales were down 8% year over year
with DTC down 11%, retail down 1%, gross margin profit
down 4% from 61.
They actually have the ticker DTC,
which is almost a curse.
It's a curse, yeah.
Because of pure play DTC model.
But look at this. I mean in 2024
they did a hundred and twelve million dollars with Chubbies and
297 million dollars in revenue with solo stove
For a combined 60 million dollars in EBITDA and yet they're trading at 22 million. It almost has to I I don't actually know
Is there something? at 22 million. It almost feels too low. I don't actually know.
Is there something,
like an insane amount of debt? Yeah, how does that make any sense?
It really doesn't.
Just for context, Chubbies was purchased
for 130 million in 2021.
Yeah.
And, yeah, how does this make sense?
I mean.
Yeah, I mean, they're spending somewhere
between four and 12% of revenue on employee costs.
I mean, so I have to imagine the catalyst here is the tariffs.
Sure.
And it's possible that all their earnings are just going to go away.
Maybe.
Yeah.
But who knows?
I can't, it's hard to imagine why.
Yeah, I mean, it's such a big business.
You'd imagine that, and it's also, it's not a brand, these aren't brands that have been
like racked with controversy. They're not going through like their Bud Light moment. Yeah, I mean, it's such a big business. You'd imagine that, and it's also, it's not a brand, these aren't brands that have been like
racked with controversy.
They're not going through like their Bud Light moment.
You know, it's like, it's a stove.
Like, you know, it's not a controversial product.
People are continuing to buy them
and they seem like good gifts
and they should be able to continue.
But maybe we should have Sean from the Ridge Wallet on
and break it down since he's the DTC expert on this show.
Anyway, moving on to TK Kong,
he says, good reminder from Brian Armstrong.
I like this because it's a picture of a printed out tweet
that we've been printed out as well.
Little recursive printing going on,
but Shrug Capital was actually,
this wasn't even my inspiration,
but they were one of the first groups to print out tweets.
We love it. That's right, they love the calendar. Yeah the calendar the calendar
Yeah, so Bryan Armstrong wrote in
Wednesday September 2nd of
2020 got this advice recently thought it was great
So passing along imagine where you want to be in five years
Then think through what that requires you to get done this year then and then don't spend any time during the year on activities that don't point you
in that direction. It's a very simple analysis. But I thought I
thought it was great. And where do you want to be in five years?
Jordi? Right at this desk, maybe a new desk, what do you need to
do this year to make sure that continues? I mean, we have a
corporate philosophy that involves,
you just spend time with family
and you just work on the show.
And you just alternate between those.
It's a 24 hour cycle.
And hopefully every day you just get to do the show
a little bit longer.
Work up to five hours, six hours.
Yeah, to me it's eventually sort of this 12, 12, 12 and 12.
12 and 12, yeah, the 12 and 12 model. Sleeping, spending time with 12, 12, 12 and 12 model where it's 12 hours sleeping,
spending time with family, 12 hours streaming.
And then, yeah, so we're working towards that.
And one of the companies that helps us do that is AdQuick.
Thank you to AdQuick for making this show possible.
When we started this show,
we talked about the origins with Sean.
We were very clear that we wanted this to be a
platform for the greatest companies in the world to get in
front of great, talented entrepreneurs, investors, etc.
And adquicksaw the vision. And if you're listening to this, you
already know they are the best way to advertise out in the real
world. They bring you know, a lot of
the mechanics that you get from buying sort of programmatic ads
on online, they bring that into two out of home and you'd be
silly not to work with them when you're ready to you out of home
and go check them out.
Yeah, buy a billboard, go to adquick.com out of home
advertising, I was easy and measurable.
Yeah, so I would you, so we were in SF yesterday
and I kept seeing these sort of tacky billboards
from some of these companies and I was just thinking,
we gotta, SF is one of the few places
that we might actually be able to get for a podcast.
Podcasts is difficult to run ads for
because the sort of LTV of a listener is you know Real but you know takes a while, but I think we should really start experimenting
Just on you know even starting on the side streets. You know somebody's walking to work
They should see your smiling face we paste
Anyways, let's move on there's some breaking news. Nathan Fielder has reportedly visited
Elizabeth Holmes in prison as part of a top secret documentary. I don't even know how
this is possible. You can podcast from prison. You can tweet from prison. You can do documentaries
from prison now. What can't you do in prison these days? But I'm sure it'll be hilarious.
Nathan Fielder's a very funny comedian
and all the trappings of a banger piece of media
coming down the pipe.
Do you, did you ever get into Nathan for you?
Loved it, watched every single episode,
laughed until I cried, absolutely obsessed with that show.
It's so good.
It's so good.
I go back and watch it every once in a while.
I need to actually, I'm making a note to watch it tonight. It's so, it's so, so funny. He would be an amazing guest to have on the show. It's so good. It's so good. I go back and watch it every once in a while. I need to actually, I'm making a note to watch it tonight.
It's so, it's so, so funny.
He would be an amazing guest to have on the show.
He would be.
Honestly.
I had a friend who interviewed for the show
and it actually is featured in the show
in kind of a vulgar.
Like their business?
No, no, no, just as like an extra basically
or like a small character.
And he said that during the interview process
Nathan didn't break character whatsoever.
It was everything about the show
was in character the whole time,
which I thought was really cool.
Let's go to Luke Metro with a hilarious post.
He says, come join our fast growing startup.
Don't miss your chance to get this equity.
The question is, how much of the growth is priced in?
And Luke says, all of it.
I mean, it's fine if they're giving you a massive package.
Yeah, yeah, I guess.
I'm just saying, yeah, we're so confident.
Yeah, yep.
But yeah, I mean, this is probably a point of frustration
for those on the job market,
looking for the next hot startup when prices are so high.
No, and this is just about being smart in that recruiting process and saying,
when they come to you and they say, yeah,
we're giving you, you know, a four year deal,
it's 500K a year, something like that.
And you can say, look, I appreciate that,
but I think, you know, and you can just demonstrate sort of knowledge of the market and say, look, I think I'm very big believer in this company.
I think our valuation has gotten a little bit out of our skis.
That 500K, I value it.
You know, I think the real sort of market value is maybe closer to 250K.
I'm going to just need a bigger package in order to join.
And if they're not willing to budge,
then maybe it's not a fit.
But oftentimes, you can actually eke out more comp
just by demonstrating an awareness
of what the real value of the equity
is compared to its future potential.
Yeah.
You have to be essentially in VC mode.
And that's why oftentimes it's good to talk to VCs
about where it's good to go,
where the interesting companies are.
I'm not sure if you want to do this,
but I'll go to Everett Randall.
Several AI companies are going to really nail
consumption-based pricing of work output in the enterprise.
And when they do, their revenue ramps
are going to melt people's brains.
And Everett says it's already starting to happen
for those with eyes to see.
So I mean, Salesforce was kind of the first large company
to work on consumption-based pricing of work output
because they want to price their agent product
on tickets closed, essentially.
So you're not paying a seat license anymore
because the seats are going away.
Because I mean, if you're buying some AI agent,
are you really buying seats anymore for your help desk?
How do we pick a new big number to anchor our revenue around?
Yep, exactly.
Price per ticket.
But I mean, already this is happening with some.
We asked, you remember we asked the Optify kids yesterday?
Yeah.
Not kids, they're grown men.
Yeah, they're grown men.
But we asked the Optify founders, if you're
getting all this efficiency out of employees,
could you potentially charge on this sort of incremental,
take a percentage of the incremental product produced?
Productivity, yeah.
Value, and they just said,
yeah, we don't wanna be arguing,
which was the right answer.
We don't wanna be arguing based on
how much incremental value is produced.
But yeah.
It's tricky.
Let's go to Grig Culp.
He says, Wacomore, and shares a quote from Frederick Nietzsche who says never trust a thought that didn't come by walking
Yeah, this this post is brought to you by big walk big walk
We've had big walking on the show. We had big walk on the show last week. Bill Manitis. Bill Manitis
Came in shilled for walking and is already having an impact his his interview did very well
And we have a couple fans in the audience
Start getting those numbers up pushing into yeah Tyler got a 20k
There's somebody with screenshot right there. I was hitting 20 plus 21,000 steps. That's a lot of steps
anyway, I
Think we should I think we should with this post from Baldo.
Okay, let's do it.
Baldo says, for those unaware today,
for those unaware today, proof TBPN runs Tech News.
It's so over for TechCrunch.
And we have a great comment here
from none other than John Coogan.
He says, just to be clear,
we really want TechCrunch to succeed
because they are owned by AOL,
which is owned by Apollo Global Management and we are strong supporters
of private equity and yeah we were kind of looking I I think I sponsored TechCrunch
you know I ran ads on TechCrunch back in the day when AOL was owned by Verizon
and I remember I got like this like ad package and there was like Verizon
branding I was like wait so this is why TechCrunch isn't
Cool anymore because it's owned by telecom. Yeah, basically got
Then tech now it's cool. It's owned by private equity, which is much cooler. Yeah, and I have to imagine
I have to imagine that they
Want to dismantle a well, yeah and say I'll sell it for parts and sell the underlying assets.
I mean, Apollo owned Vale.
Maybe TechCrunch could pivot into being a ski blog
and just give you the updates on what's going on in Vale.
Already, I mean, I imagine a lot of the VCs
that are reading TechCrunch used to read TechCrunch.
Well, now they're mostly skiing.
So get them in, merge it with Vale.
That's so smart.
Boom, TechCrunch is printing again.
And Vale has that sort of durable subscription revenue.
Exactly, with the passes.
Yeah.
Epic Pass.
Yeah, let's turn TechCrunch into Ski Lifestyle Magazine.
Print only.
Print only, glossy.
You can talk about interviewing allocators
on the chair lifts.
But not about tech, just saying, what's your favorite?
What's your favorite run?
Yeah.
What do you think of the backcountry this season?
What's your preferred?
When you're booking your helicopter,
or you're buying your helicopter, what's important to you?
Yeah.
What's important when you're hiring someone
to sharpen your skis and wax everything?
How do you get it right?
What kind of talent are you looking for there?
What makes a great ski butler?
Yeah, kind of like, step it up from TechCrunch
to more Robb Report style, merge it with Vale.
I think we're onto something.
I think we're onto something here.
So, Apollo, if you're listening.
We gotta talk to TechCrunch's bankers.
We're here to help with the process.
Yeah, yeah, get us a call.
Anyway, fantastic show.
Thanks for watching.
We'll be back tomorrow.
Have a great Thursday.
Leave us a five star review wherever you listen to podcasts
and put an ad in it, please.
Thank you.
It warms our hearts.
Have a great day.
Talk to you soon.
Bye.