TBPN Live - Weekly Recap: Apple Debuts iPhone 17, Einstein of Wall Street, YC Demo Day, Declining AI Adoption

Episode Date: September 13, 2025

(00:00) - Intro (00:03) - Declining AI Adoption (16:03) - YC Demo Day (36:53) - Peter Tuchman (Einstein of Wall Street) (45:45) - Apple Debuts iPhone 17 (01:08:39) - How to think about the $300B OpenAI-Oracle TBPN.com is made possible by: Ramp - https://ramp.comFigma - https://figma.comVanta - https://vanta.comLinear - https://linear.appEight Sleep - https://eightsleep.com/tbpnWander - https://wander.com/tbpnPublic - https://public.comAdQuick - https://adquick.comBezel - https://getbezel.com Numeral - https://www.numeralhq.comPolymarket - https://polymarket.comAttio - https://attio.com/tbpnFin - https://fin.ai/tbpnGraphite - https://graphite.devRestream - https://restream.ioProfound - https://tryprofound.comJulius AI - https://julius.aiTurbopuffer - https://turbopuffer.comFal.AI - fal.aiFollow TBPN: https://TBPN.comhttps://x.com/tbpnhttps://open.spotify.com/show/2L6WMqY3GUPCGBD0dX6p00?si=674252d53acf4231https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/technology-brothers/id1772360235https://www.youtube.com/@TBPNLive

You're watching TVPN! Today, there is a chart that is tearing up the internet about AI adoption, potentially going down. This is from the census. The census says that the AI adoption rate, by firm size, they do this poll every two weeks. And Apollo, the giant private... Apollo management? Yeah, Apollo. on their Apollo Academy blog has a post, AI adoption rate trending down for large companies.

The U.S. Census Bureau conducts a bi-weekly survey among 1.2 million firms. And one question is whether a business has used AI tools such as machine learning, natural language processing, virtual agents, or voice recognition to help produce goods or services in the past two weeks. Recent data by firm size shows that AI adoption has been declining among companies with more than 250 employees. Is that good? I mean, I think... It's good for your job.

There are a bunch of different reads on this. So I think it potentially could be good. I don't know. I'll walk through kind of my thinking on it. But there's a bunch of interesting stuff in here. So the chart's going viral because kind of everyone's been feeling that AI has been overhyped and like the valuations are crazy. And so people are hunting for top signals, as we have, you know, a month ago.

Top signal enjoys. We put out, we put out, we got to play the video. Oh, yeah, yeah, the hype cycle. It's released. Oh, it is. It is. Yeah, let's pull that up. Yeah, let's pull up the video.

The video that Tyler just posted, did you post it from the TBPN account? Yes. Of the hype cycle. We'll play that. But people have been hunting for bearish signals about AI because it feels too good to be true. Everyone's getting rich and you aren't. It has the same sort of economic trends as the crypto boom, as a few other booms. And so people are hunting for data points, and this is one of them.

But let's first review the Gartner hype cycle video that we just put out. I think NVIDIA is underbarian. It may not mean nothing to y'all, but understand nothing was done for me. So I don't plan on stopping at all. I want this shit forever, mine, ever mind, ever mind. Shutting shit down in the mall And so everyone's been hot She's been hot for me

And I ain't need a TVPN hype cycle Yeah, but... We'll give Gartner their hype cycle. Yeah, so everyone's been hotly debating where we are in the Gartner hype cycle. Some people call it the TBPN hype cycle. Yes. We'll give Gardner their credit for this one.

So people have been hunting for potentially bearish signals, signals, bearish data points. There was that result for meter that showed that developers that were using AI coding tools were actually less productive. They thought they'd be 20% more productive. And I saw something else. I don't know if this was misinformation, fake news, somewhat real or just anecdotal, but there was somebody that was saying developers are producing more like a lot more code but like an order of magnitude more security vulnerabilities yeah it's something like they're producing twice as much and then i saw 10 times as many uh 10 times as many security vulnerabilities and i know the posts you're going to talk about now it is in the stack

but it's deep there's a post i'm gonna try to find it but it's it's somebody searched like vibe coding cleanup specialist and there's people on on lincoln now that are that are this is the brand yeah around cleaning up vibe coded product this is their brand yeah so if you're worried about losing your job to vibe coding. Pivot to vibe coding cleanup. There's always a bull market somewhere. Guys, can we pull up the chat on the TV if possible? Anyway, let me run through this. So from the data, the chart is going viral because it's dropping off and it looks bearish for AI and thus for tech, America, for humanity broadly, everyone is saying, please consult the Gartner hype cycle graph. There is a question on where we are on the Gartner hype cycle.

I've been saying that maybe we still have a ways to go up. I can't tell if I'm on the left side or the right side of the graph at this point. Like I've kind of already been through the trough of disillusionment. And so... When is that for you? That was probably 2024. 24 was when it felt like everyone was that AI so insane. You were going like this in the mirror, like the Joker? A little bit because, you know, AI is so insane. But then, you know, you go back to the chat GPT moment. That was 2023.

Waymo, you know, really, like, rolling out to generally, that was 2023. There wasn't as much, there was a lot of hype, but there wasn't as much, like, actual progress. It felt like, it felt, I don't know. So maybe now we're, now we're. We didn't have 5,000 AI agents for blank. I don't know. Just as I processed the last few weeks. I feel like I'm climbing up the slope of enlightenment.

I don't feel like I'm falling down. Sautia posting, red posting, and showing how he's getting value across the... That feels like the plateau of productivity. That feels like... That's plateaued productivity. That feels like we're plateauing and we're very productive. Exactly.

And even the narrative of always AI progress plateauing, that's not, is it going to crash? Yeah. That's not the trough of disillusionment. That's the plateau of productivity. So anyway, people love to, you know, give their takes. Anyway, I think that, I think the,

the real an interesting study I'm sure there'd be flaws with it but but if you went to companies and you'd say like how much would I have to pay you to not use AI for the next 12 months across your entire company yeah I think you could argue that like in engineering org specifically in terms of like things like fraud detection and areas that there's probably a lot of money but it's very possible that in certain organizations. But then, but then you have the question of like, okay, does trans, you know, just like sales call transcription count as AI, right? Well, I will tell you, Jordy, because 90% of American businesses told the census that they

do not use AI at all, including transcriptions. So they would take a lot of money to. They would take a dollar. They would take a dollar. They would take any amount of money because it's all net positive. But there's a lot going on in this data that we should run through. So And I thought, I thought, I thought people didn't trust data from the census. Well, yeah, Ara Krasian has a good, a good take about the size of the data set and how spend and where AI is actually having an impact, we'll run through that. But, so first off, small firms haven't declined even by this metric. So if you're a firm that has one to four employees, you're a very small firm, you're still

increasing in in in AI adoption yeah we uh should we switch over to these by the way guys we are testing some new microphones we're trying to make it up the boys wanted the the mics back they're coming back hot daniel's we can't top till duar kess ships ships his book he dirty he already shipped his book i thought i i got a preview it was yeah that doesn't make any sense i don't know dorcasch's book it's released oh yeah that came out on on straight press like we had them on the it was like on sale right oh maybe it hasn't shipped but i got an advanced copy i printed it out maybe maybe it hasn't fully like actually delivered but uh the first time we had him on the show was because of yeah it's still a pre-order no problem john still a pre-order on amazon oh still a pre-order

okay so okay it's going to be released on october 8th okay so um yeah market invidia please don't nuke until uh until uh door cash can get the book out yeah uh so uh the main headline number in this census data set is that firms with over 250 employees are declining in their self-reported AI usage. It's not a huge drop. It goes from like 12%, 14% to 12%. It's a little blip, but the chart does look scary. We can pull it up. It's like the third slide. So I think what's going on here is the following. Small firms see bottom-up adoption of AI tools. Like can I literally directly use chat GPT for this. Like, you run a two-person company at various times. A lot of times you're just thinking, okay, I got a, I got a selected accountant or something. Like, let me like chat GPT, right?

And this kind of bottom-up adoption just happens very naturally. Whereas, if you're in a larger firm, you're going to get sold on some crazy AI transformation plan, needs a whole training program. And is everyone up to day up to speed at the same time? You need a bunch of consultants. And they sort of misunderstand what AI even is and they fall into a bunch of weird analogies like we'll hire a hundred AI agents and like that's very different from just hey Google exists chat chachypT exists we expect you to use both at this company and so this is where I thought the data was really really weird because if you look at the data for chat chachypt adoption we're way off of what this 10% number is for for business

adoption of AI tooling. So this data says that about 10% of companies are using AI at all at work, which is crazy because there was a data point back in March that said 52% of U.S. adults use AI large language models like Chachapit. So think about what that means. It means like out of 100 million Americans, there's 100 million Americans that are like, yeah, I use AI tools. Like there's maybe 200 million adult Americans or something. There's 340. total Americans, but let's call it, let's call it 100 million Americans. They're using AI tools just like generally. Chat Chachy-T-Americans. Yeah, Chachy-P-T-A-Mare. What kind of Americans? The chat-chip-T-Americans. And then 80 million of those are just like, no, not at work, though.

That makes no sense. That makes zero sense. And so there's got to be something weird going on with this data. And I think it's a matter of the definition. And so the census defines AI is, like, it makes no sense that 10% of companies would fit this definition. What did, what did, you said, ARA at RAMP was chiming in on this. Yeah, yeah. He has a post in the, in the deck. Yeah. So the definition.

Yeah, he says these sample sizes are extremely small for these large firm breakouts, extremely volatile survey to survey, which is why he's using the six survey moving average. Business AI adoption is back up in the most recent read. So I feel like that's important. Yeah, it's one of those things. I feel like payments providers, like, like ramp, right, would, would have better insight here.

Just like, obviously, Ramp is a sample of companies in the United States, but it's at a scale now where they could see, like, okay, what percentage of companies are paying for any type of AI products? Yep. That's better than are you adopting, are you using more or less AI than you were last time? Yes, yes. The question is, like, how power law distributed is it, right? So the Ramp estimate of share of U.S. businesses with paid. subscriptions to AI models, platforms, and tools is 43%. The U.S. government's estimate is 8%.

This data is weird, right? Also, like, listen to how broad this definition of, like, are you using AI at your business? It's anything in this list, if you're using any of these buzzwords, you count as an AI user. So it should be very high based on this. Machine learning, natural language processing, virtual agents, predictive analytics, predictive analytics, literally just like a linear regression forecast of like, oh, we did one million, then two million, then four million. Looks like we're growing exponentially. Next year, we're predicting that we're going to do eight million. That counts as AI, which is ridiculous.

There's a legend out there that doesn't do any of that mumbo-jumbo. Yeah, yeah, exactly. Maybe they're just considering it, they're doing it in their heads. It's like organic intelligence. So, yeah, seriously. I mean, it's in, you can do that in a spreadsheet. Machine vision, voice recognition, decision-making. Decision-making. systems. Data analytics. Just if you're using data analytics at your business, not even like LLLLN powder. No, no, that would be the next step. Just if you're analyzing data, you count. And the last one is image processing. If you're processing images, that counts as AI. And so that's basically any SaaS tool. Like any consumer LLM product used by employees should count.

And it should be really easy to fulfill this definition. I'm thinking of like if you're using Ramp, obviously when you scan a picture of receipt that uses image processing your business is technically you're telling me the people that that are responsible for the department of motor vehicles are getting into measuring the usage of AI yeah in the workplace and we should all this is incredibly botched it's incredibly botched it's incredibly but it but it but it but it but it's it's it's it's really funny because one post like this yeah it's the timeline and you have people like Daniel, just saying it's over. Obviously, he's joking. Yeah, yeah. It's over. Runs me. It's over. But I am very interested to see the results of

hype.hipe.tbPN.com. Go fill it out, please.hype.tbPN. So I was trying to dig into this more and was wondering, like, is this chart bearish? And I don't think so. I think that there's a big shift that's going to happen. The number of business owners who pick up the call from the census and actually say, yes, I'm using AI, that will go down, but the real number will actually go up. So if you're using Stripe, there's a machine learning, there's machine learning under the hood to do fraud detection. So you are an AI user, but it's happening at a different layer in the stack.

If you use Ramp, our sponsor, save time and money, go to ramp.com. When you scan a photo of your receipt, that is processed using AI, but you, aren't thinking about yourself as like an AI user. You're just using software that happens to be AI enabled. And the same thing will happen, you know, with your email. Like, it doesn't matter what email client you use. You could use Google apps. You could use Outlook. Like, there's going to be AI baked in there. You're going to be an AI user. Even when you just go to Google, you're going to see search overviews that are LLM powered. You're going to be using chat GPT. Like, AI is going to be 100% used. And yet everyone will say, no, I don't use AI at my company.

because I'm not an AI company. And there's this weird distance. I use SaaS. Yeah, I use software, basically. It's like, are you specifically a software company? And that's, and that's, and that's part of the way that people have been waking up recently, being like, wait, AI is SaaS? Yeah. And it's like, has been.

It's the same thing with like, like, non-relational databases or like in-memory cache. AI had to become SaaS in order to destroy it. Really? Really did. And so, uh, I think AI is going to see into every crack of the small business data of small business day to day operations but the operator won't be proudly telling the census worker I'm all in on AI for much longer I think that trend will continue and less and less people will be saying I have adopted AI even though they

will have which is a weird which is a weird dynamic um but uh it certainly it certainly tracks so I'm Bora this is Jerry we're co-founders of Reacher and the outfits are because we help brands reach more creators and make viral content to help them reach more people how do you do that like what is the actual product yeah so we build AI agents to help brands find the right creators personalize the outreach okay get them to respond and pay them and then also generate scripts and hook so that they can make viral content we have some lightning round questions uh favorite entrepreneur what you got oh you can say anybody yeah i know i was gonna say Elon but i think it's uh jensen Jensen.

There we go. The first Jensen, let's start counting them up. I'm Bruno. We're beating Gauss, a personal AI investment analyst for retail investors. Oh, interesting. There we go. B2C, if you invest in stocks, you're welcome to join our platform. Yeah, I mean, there's been a ton of moves in the retail world, tons of meme stocks going on.

Is this going to help me find the next great meme stock or avoid getting caught up in the meme stock? Is it more for the retail investor who doesn't want to get burned or the retail investor has to go risk on? Can I tell the app to not make mistakes? mistakes. Exactly. That's actually our number one use case. We want retail investors to make less emotional mistakes. So right now we're focusing on thesis-driven investors, so not the meme stock buyers. So you have a clear thesis. You want to monitor the market, but you're a busy professional. You don't have time to keep track of everything that's happening. We can find opportunities. You know, you connect your portfolio to us. Okay. And we can start giving tailored advice.

Favorite entrepreneur. We've been asking everyone who comes to mind throughout history? I have to say the Vevelis from NewBank. He's an inspiration for me. He challenged the most traditional industry in Brazil, big banks, and he managed to create a generational company. Fantastic. Introduce yourselves. Who are you?

What are you building? Cool. So my name is Jason Cornelius. This is Steve. Hey, what's up, guys? Steve with Perseus defense. And we're building 16-inch missiles to shoot down drones. 16-inch missiles to shoot down drones.

Okay. What do we not have 16-inch? We should have a brought one. Do we not have 16-inch missiles in the, arsenal currently is this something that's like like you're familiar with like the Patriot and then the bullet how much do they cost and how do you fire them yeah it's a good question so there are some existing solutions for like the counter your ass problem right we see walk through that well yeah

walk through the solutions for sure so there's you know electronic warfare yeah so GPS jamming which is unreliable right there's the there's easy ways to defeat them you know you can make a more advanced drone and this is what we have the fiber optic cable so yeah already defeating some of those solutions that we have yeah and then there's like the death star laser beam which is very expensive immobile very heavy requires a lot of power there's AI machine guns yeah like there's a million solutions and we were everybody that

does that ACS has gone on in the truck yeah and so there's some really good solutions out there for different use cases and no we need more yeah we need more and they all have pros and cons and they have like a layered so some of them like ACS is very short range some of them like a patriot is very long range and so we looked at it who's going to fill this gap that's in between when we don't want to spend a 10 million dollar missile to shoot it at 10 miles away but we also don't want it to get so close to us that it's you know right on top of us so what's the what's the range it's a 16 inch missile half mile half mile okay lightning round uh favorite entrepreneur who do you look to for advice or uh or as a role model

we're looking at dino at seronic right now and trying to match that trajectory that they're having a lot introduce yourself for the stream who are you what are you building yeah uh I'm Prunov. We're building Meteor and this is for Han. The AI native browser that's going to kill Google Chrome. Oh, okay. We got the browser. Let's go.

Yeah. That's fire. Yes. This one. You guys going after a comet too. Yeah, absolutely everyone. Yeah. Okay.

Well, what's the plan? I mean, everyone is installed Chrome at this point. Everyone runs it. It's so hard to rip it out. How do you create a solution that's 10x better? Yeah. Well, I mean, we all spend seven or eight hours every day on our browser. on our browser.

We do most of our work on the browser. Right? Most of it is redundant work. Yep. We're saying we can automate all of that away. We're saying we want to spawn AI agents that work with you as your co-pilot to the web that can do your work for you so you don't have to waste your seven or eight hours. Okay.

But what does that look like as I use the product? How do you pitch it to somebody who says Chrome works well enough for me? Right. Chrome does work well enough for you if you're okay wasting many hours a day. What we're saying is we're giving you time savings. It's sort of like people pay thousands of dollars for people. personal assistance. Sure. People pay thousands of dollars for employees to hire, like to create automations. We're saying we want to create virtual employees. Sure. That run on your browser.

Yeah. And that's media. So like, let's say you want to handle your calendar. Sure. Right, just automate all like meeting creation, you know, based on your emails. Who's your favorite entrepreneur? It's got to be Steve Jobs. Steve Jobs. Okay. Introduce yourself in the company. Cool. I'm Has Hubble. I'm the founder of Pali. We're bringing every contact and every conversation from every platform into one place. Okay. using AI to help you keep track. Who's your favorite entrepreneur, who you're learning a lot from?

My favorite entrepreneur at all time. Actually would be Richard Branson. And here's a fun story. So when I was, I dropped out of high school. And I remember when I was like 14, 15, speaking to my mom about this, I pointed to him as someone who was successful who dropped out. Yeah.

Did he drop out of high school though? Yeah. Oh wow. And then 10 years later, I was invited to spend a week on his island with him. No way, not there. And I spent actually time with him on Necker Island. And so it was like a very cool full circle moment.

Totally. He's been a great, great mentor over the years. That's amazing, that's amazing. Introduce yourself, what do you do? Yeah, my name is Pietro. I'm the CEO of MCPUs. We help people use MCP, of course. It'll be an open source that tools and infrastructure.

I was gonna say, what's the open source strategy? Yeah, open source, I mean, is a no-brain. The strategy is to open source. Yes, yes, yes. M-I license, everything is free. Okay, everything's free, and then there's probably GitHub repo that's growing in some measured by stars or something like that.

Yeah, 7K stars. So there we are, I know it. Let's hear it for 7K stars, congrats. And then at some point, do you want be more like Red Hat Linux? Like who are you looking to in terms of well run? Is a GitLab, like Superbase? Superbase, okay.

Break down. How will their business model look like yours? Yeah, because they have a bottom up approach. They get developers and then those developers introduced inside the company, the tool, and I love it. Who is your favorite entrepreneur or someone in business that you look up to? Yeah, Brian Chesky, I think.

Brian Chesky. There we go. Introduce yourself for the stream. Who are you? What do you do? What do you building? Hey, everyone. I'm Onmole.

I'm the CEO of Closera and we build AI agents for commercial real estate who okay um big industry what what what huge industry what part of the commercial real estate stack the actual transaction do you sit on the buyer side the seller side like yeah it's a great question administration there's so much that in commercial real exactly it's a huge industry so yeah my co-founder and I our families actually grew up in the commercial real estate space are both our families are developers cool um but you let's hear it for the developer

developers developers um usually say that in a different context exactly yeah Yeah, but yeah, we kind of did a survey of the whole market and we realized actually the most insane amount of manual TDS boring work that of course can be automated with AI agents is actually done by brokerages and so that's where we decided to focus. Favorite entrepreneur, someone you look up to. Yeah, I think, you know, classic answer, definitely Steve Jobs, like reading that biography in middle school is like, well, it got me to want to move to the valley, go to Stanford, D.C. The Walter Isaacson book. Exactly. Yeah. Introduce yourself for the stream.

Who are you? What are you building? How's Demodee going? Yeah. Do I look at you? whatever you want okay I'm gonna look at you fantastic I'm Anson we're building normal and we're automating hardware testing and compliance hardware testing and compliance any specific verticals are we talking like semiconductors rockets

spaceships cars yeah we're starting with like robotics and drones and other any electrical components that have like a radio yeah part to it so that's mostly it who is your favorite entrepreneur someone you look up to can be anyone favorite founder can I say throughout history sir Sir John A. McDonald who's that first prime Minister of Canada. Okay. Oh, wow.

Did he start Canada? Did he start Canada? Okay. We don't have any buttons for Canada here. This is somewhat on American. I don't know if I could fully endorse it, but it's outside the box. I appreciate it for that reason. Introduce yourself.

What are you building? So I made in the CTO of Effigo. We're doing the AI operating system for local governments. Starting with a 311 in a box. 311. What do you, is that information hotline? Yeah, it's the information. counterport to 911.

Okay, yeah. So interestingly, only around 2% of cities have a 311 line, even though every city has 911. Yeah, yeah. And what we're doing with our first product is creating 24-7 call center that's available to anyone from, if you're in San Francisco. Yeah. Or if you're in like a city of 10,000 in the middle of Iowa,

like you should have the same level of service. So you call through and one, it automatically routes you to your service. And then if I'm in my city, It'll give me information. What are the, what's the, obviously everyone knows textbook 911 call. Someone's breaking into my house. What's the textbook 311 call?

Yeah, I think it's- Is this road open or when does it trash pick up and stuff like that? Stuff like that. It definitely varies a lot more city to city. So we're alive in Florida and we're taking calls about alligators roaming around the city. Yeah, yeah. And I'm sure you've set the system up

so that you can route to 911 if you need to. Absolutely right to animal control, kind of sit above the rest of the city. the stack of all the different city services. Yeah, and that's kind of why we started with this is because it gives us a really great insight into what are the calls and services that the city's providing.

So now we can go down and actually handle these workflows end to end with our agents. Who is your favorite entrepreneur of all time? Someone you look to for advice. Peter Thiel. First person to say PT. So yeah, why is this sitting here? What do you do?

Introduce yourself, who are you? Yes, my name is Zane, the founder of Knox Medal. and we cut metal, so we're trying to build the most efficient metal service centers in America to empower every factory in America to work with better margins and to move faster. Okay, there's a lot of ways to cut metal. He's doing the meme. He's doing the meme.

He's re-industrializing. Who's your favorite entrepreneur? Alex Karp. Of all time. Alex Karp. We've had him on the show last week. Introduce yourself. Who are you?

What are you building? Yeah, so hi, my name is Vihar, and we're building Orange Slice. We're basically AI Search Infra to help you find customers that already want your product. Who is your favorite? favorite entrepreneur of all time. Oh, that's a good one. I'm not, I don't actually know that many entrepreneurs in general. Someone that you read a biography of or look up to,

or maybe just saw a recent interview with and thought was, I could learn something from them. He's Lisan al-Gaibe of Enterprise SaaS. He doesn't need it, it's a blank slate. He doesn't need any influence. Well, honestly, I don't think, I don't draw that much inspiration, just because I think the biggest motivating factor

in this might be contrarian. It's not actually inspiration, but like the fear of mediocrity of it not working out has been way bigger for us that's the biggest reason I don't have that much inspiration but Eric from the rent from rent my co-founder used to work at ramp so I mean they are absolutely killing yeah introduce yourself what yeah who are you what do you do my name is Arlan I am building Nizomeo which is an API that gives more context to agents okay so if you're a cursor user yeah you can

pretty much just go to cursor index any documentation or code base and give it as a context of an agent we what exactly is happening are yeah I I know cursor does kind of roll-ups of what's happening there's there there's some rag infrastructure that's popular what else is going on in in the actual product to unlock value yes so the two reasons I build this is because so like I was so fucking pissed where I would like go to Google copy paste all the dogs and paste them right in the cursor yeah the memory is not persistent so they will fucking forget that in like two seconds sure and second one is that you also

pollute context window which like causes context It's actually a study done by Croma, which is like a yeah company. Oh yeah, we know Jeff well. Yeah, saying like post-4,000 tokens, I think, like the performance of any LLM's goals like this. Yep. So that's like the reason I build this. Who's your favorite entrepreneur of all time?

Yeah, who the fuck the most money, bro? Like Elon Musk, yeah, yeah, he's the rich man, bro, yeah. But otherwise, yeah, Brian Chesky is my goal. I love Brian Chesky. Brian Chesky, Founder Mode. Would you mind introducing yourself in your company? Sure, so, hi everyone, I'm Lesia.

Viplo is the only one solution to build production ready apps in no code. Okay. Okay, we've seen a lot of news recently that there's now a whole industry of vibe code cleanup specialists. What's your reaction? Can vibe coding ever make it to production? No. No.

Not now, at least. All the solutions out there are really broken and they can give you this wow effect in the front end, but on the back end side there is so much to do and there is a huge needs. People are, like they have hair and fire problems and they need to solve these problems. The market is huge. Who's your favorite entrepreneur of all time? My favorite entrepreneur is Taylor Swift.

Taylor Swift. I'm a big fan and she is amazing. Introduce yourself for the stream. Who are you? What are you building? Well, I'm Joshua March. I'm the co-founder and CEO of Veritas agent. We build AI agents for the consumer lending industry.

So interfacing with borrowers to help doing sales, servicing collections for like fintechs, banks, credit unions, services, that kind of thing. Who's your favorite entrepreneur of all time? So there's this guy, Felix Dennis, who was a British entrepreneur. And he wrote this book called How to Get Rich, which I think is the best book on entrepreneurship. What you actually do. Yeah. My name is Kevin. I'm the CEO and co-founder of the prompting company, and we help product get mentioned in chat GPT.

Okay. Okay. Okay. Not just another generative engine optimization tool. Yeah, yeah. How do you differentiate? Yeah, for sure. So we play in the infrastructure layer. We're not just creating articles for you. Okay. We create shadow sites for our companies to, you know, influence on who is your favorite entrepreneur of all time in history in history I mean anyone live or dead did Steve Jobs Steve Jobs is now yeah it's a great answer introduce yourself who are you what do Bob hi I'm Bob all been better we build coding agents of firmware okay coding agents for firmware firmware yeah what what device are they said it could be done so we do

microcontrollers Linux computers so think about any microchre you can think of STM 32 ESP T I NXV any any manufacturer when did you when did you when did you you learned you wanted to do agents for coding agents for firmware that's good good question so I did hardware all my life and started like you know started when I was full doing robots moving to more professional stuff in high school in college I did school let's go in college I yeah in college I built human rights and then went to a startup the med tech stuff and then went to Tesla worked on robot taxi yeah so we kind of saw that I saw this problem from like you know

like a 10% research lab to a trillion-dollar company yeah who's your favorite entrepreneur of all time Elon has to be here we go introduce yourself what do you do hey my name is sion we're Kalinda that's a great name yeah we're basically a deep research for class action law firms okay interesting yeah let's give it up for litigation what's the secret sauce is it is it just the the day bad data in bad data out you got to get private data that's maybe behind some sort of wall it's not scraped into the the pre-training weights of GPT-5 and so you have some

a resource in the data, or is it something in the architecture or something at the UI level? Like where's the interesting? Kind of like most startups at YC, like a lot of it sits on the application layer. Sure. Most of it for class action law firms

is the scale at which they do things. They can have maybe 10 million pages for litigation. Oh wow. So with that kind of scale, you can't obviously just toss them to check. Yeah, be a hassle, just upload another PDF. Upload another PDF, upload another PDF. And then the kind of second thing

is like most of the data sort of sits in silos. and kind of aggregating it all and making it sort of, you know, comprehensive, like human would is. Who is your favorite entrepreneur of all time? Sam Olman. Sam Holman. Just because I've met it twice, but he's, yeah,

he's a goat. Introduce yourself. We haven't pitched yet. Who are you? What do you do? Ralph Garcia, founder of Kernel, we're crazy fast browsers in the cloud for your AI agent. The browser wars.

The browser wars are on. But this is basically computer use. So it's API to go and interact with the website. Yeah, so nowadays, a lot of, of AI agents you want to hook them up to the exact same tools that humans use and the browser is one of the main tools that we use on a day to day basis and so we're powering automations in healthcare fintech QA lots of different use cases that AI is really good at who is your favorite entrepreneur in history who do you look to favorite entrepreneur

how far back are we going you go live or dead literally thousands of you can go somebody has mentioned jesus christ somebody has mentioned eric lineman at ramp so i mean i didn't make the comparison but it was made today i mean cliche i'll have to go steve jobs i mean i grew up reading that was georgie's answer too and studying apple like that was my first computer as a kid so who are you what do explain yourself my name's odie i'm a co-founder of agent mill it's the first email provider built for a i agents the key distinction there we go the key distinction is we're not AI for your email we're email for your AI okay whoa oh interesting like browser use for agents okay I was wondering about this because I go

to agent mode and oftentimes it hits a wall where it's like okay it should just now it should just email the person to actually kick off that process and it can't do it yeah how much money are you making how much money are we making yeah did you share a KPI at demo day did you share progress what KPI should we did not but we love our customers okay but there are but you customers plural so I know there's more than one. Yes. Okay.

I'm learning. There we go. Did you come in with this idea or did you pivot to it? So we were trying to get rich quick. Is that why you're, is somebody vlogging out there? Is that someone else? Yeah, exactly. We're like hot stories.

You're getting that YouTube. I know a question I'm asking next. So we wanted agents to go on the internet, make us money, farm free trials. Oh, interesting. Exactly. And we realized, okay, it's kind of hard to give agents their own inboxes. But they should have them. Sequoia is talking about them.

Langchains talking about them. Yeah. Agents need their own email inboxes. Okay. Who's your favorite entrepreneur in history of live or dead? I like Warren Buffett. Warren Buffett. Yeah.

Interesting. I think he's one of those guys who's like actually humble. Yeah. Right? Like, it's not like, okay, hey, I'm worth 100 million. Yeah. I think he just genuinely is in it for the love of the game. He does.

So hopefully one day, you know, I could be like that. Who are you? What do you do? Hey, I'm Audit building RIF, which is Cursor for music production. Ooh, that's fun. Are you sitting? So, Cursor, sits on top of an open source IDE.

Are you sitting on top of Ableton or something? That doesn't exist for music. So we actually built everything from scratch, trained our own models. Sure. We have our own like editor. It kind of looks like garage band, but you can use AI tools to generate sounds

and mess around. Interesting. Do you bring your own like samples? Or do you plug into a sample library? Like where, or is all the samples AI generated? Yeah, we have like a user community of samples. Well, we also like let you generate your own. And also like lots of bells and whistles

to make it easier. Like for example, you can, can hum out a melody and we'll play it on an instrument for you that's very cool favorite entrepreneur in history library dead dr dr dr dr dr dr i knew i had to ask you anyway thank you so much yeah yeah it's great to have you who are you what are you building i'm john ferrara i'm building juxta which is a GPS alternative that can track anywhere on earth with no hardware like i feel like i've seen this on x you might have seen our we had a pretty cool launch video very cool yeah okay so uh how does it work i it we there's some company that's

out of Google that just sold it does something similar, like magnetics, but what, how do you, how are you doing it? Yeah, so we basically use simulated technology to basically render any environment using satellite imagery or indoor floor plans into 3D. So you do a geo-guessor. You could, you could put it that way. Yeah, we shouldn't have the company that way.

Yeah, and then we simulate millions of people or objects moving through to space, simulate their sensor measurements with like accelerometers, gyroscopes, and then train models on that and then basically deploy the software. And then we can leverage the IMUs, which are like sensors that are already into every phone and most other devices today,

to track you like like I can see you through your website lots of people love yeah if you've seen that film in like the dark night there's like a scene where Batman make oh yeah I know the one you're talking about you know that's how you can imagine yeah who's your favorite entrepreneur in history live or dead oh my god I would say I would say I know the riff guys just said dr. Dre but I'll say Drake because he just came out that Amazon store and Drake's my favorite artist so oh there one Amazon store I don't know you haven't seen this he's this is his actual plot to take over Amazon

as a distribution platform, but he's working with Amazon to sell all of his merch and all of his goods through their storefront and basically facilitate all their distribution through there. So that's my cop-out answer, but I just love Drake. We have a special guest with us opening the show. Introduce yourself for the stream. Hi, my name is Peter Tuckman. I'm known as the Einstein of Wall Street. Einstein of Wall Street and I'm not that smart. I just look at you. Who was the first person? Did you give yourself that? Aaron Burnett gave me that and I've had a show on her show now on CNN for the last four months ever since the beginning of the sort of mini crash that was sort of self-induced by our, the new leader, the new sheriff in town, but correct, she called me in. So she used to work on the floor with CNBC. And she nicknamed it probably 20 years ago and called me Einstein and that sort of picked up. But your latest, your latest collaborator is not on TV, but on streaming, correct? Correct. So I had the functionality of actually meeting I Show Speed, right, young 20-year-old kid who I got invited.

So there's a team that's doing his stream thing. There's a young guy named Adam Faze. We know, he came to our event. We were here about a month and a half ago. He came to a party. So Adam, Adam's something special. He found me about four years ago and asked me if I would let him shoot me every day walking out of the stock exchange for 30 days and just do what I do.

And we did this whole TikTok thing called Einstein Elementary, went viral. like me and like marching bands from Brooklyn and walking around with a 50-pound Hershey's Kiss and doing all this crazy stuff. So you called me last week asked if I could bring speed to the floor and it didn't seem appropriate at the time. And he said, well, how can I get you to meet him? And I said, come up with an idea, and he's an idea guy.

So he called me on Thursday morning. He said, we're going to be at the bowl. Yeah. He's going to be at the bowl. Would you come and welcome him to Wall Street? I said, absolutely. So they gave me a police escort. I went down there and met this young guy

and talked about some of the, the shtick I do, you know, investing in stocks and not stuff and about, you know, the fact that, you know, that everything that his life is based on is actually a publicly traded company. And then instead of, you know, buying the next iPhone, he could probably buy a couple of shares of Apple and that maybe, you know, he could invest in his future besides the amazing futures got set up. How do you receive it? He received it. Totally. He talked about it a couple days down the road. So I got the message across. And, uh, and I've blown up. I've got literally There's the number.

200. So I have now, I came in at 260,000 followers on Thursday, and now I have 419 and it's counting. And I've got 40 million views on some of my posts. 7,000 DMs. 7,000 DMs. I actually just did a video to answer that. Anyway. What was the first stock you ever bought?

You know what? I did not ever buy a share of stock until recently. I went through most of my career because I'm a registered broker on the floor. And I'm not allowed to be in a stock for a customer and for myself in a 30-day period. And so I built a trading strategy 20 years ago, trading the S&P 500, based on information that I have as a broker on the floor. And I trade all 347 names in the S&P every day. So basically, I made a decision years ago.

And also, money does a funny thing. If I'm in a stock for myself and I get an order for a customer, it's going to impact the way I trade. And I didn't want that to ever be the case. So I do well enough here as a commission broker. that I said, you know what, I'll invest in my kids, I'll put them through college, and they both graduated without any dead,

and that's where my money went. What about some of the first stocks that you were brokering? First stocks that I broker, so we're here, we're talking about IPOs, right? And so, you know, I probably have traded more IPOs than anybody on Earth. I've been in the crowd on all of them. I mean, the first IPO I think I traded was LinkedIn, right?

It was priced at 30, it opened at 60, ran up to 180, same day, and that was where I got the sense of how amazing the enthusiasm, has them around an IPO because it's based on confidence. Nobody knows it. And then, and so one of, I've had so many fun experiences in IPOs. Jack Ma, Alibaba IPO, which was one of the biggest that we've ever had here.

He and I bonded, we spent, so IPOs here take probably four or five hours. We just opened Klarna, right? Yeah. And the process behind that, which we do better than anyone in the world, is the price discovery process that what goes on, it's kind of like building a building. The way you open a stock, the way we open a stock, it takes time. because it's a matter of the information going back and forth, it's a public offering. So the public has to understand what's going on, and so we go back and forth with our customer.

It's kind of like if you put the bricks in the mortar in the right place and you, the way a stock opens, if it's built correctly, is going to purport the way it trades forever. Now, it doesn't guarantee it's going up, but it will have structure and foundation. And you know, you go to NASDAQ, nothing against NASDAQ, but if you go to NASDAQ, it's fully electronic. So it opens when the buyers and sellers meet in the electronic market, Here it's different. So then you're going to see what you see. It's handmade. It'll go up. It goes down. There's no, there are no guard rails, right? So here things are a lot different. So Jack Ma and I spent four hours together in the IPO. He and are very short. So we bonded on the fact that we were the shortest people in the crowd. We were on the same level, not this, not financially. Because he became a very wealthy guy again on that day. Someone on our team actually was here at that IPO as well. Amazing time. And then we've had look, but then you know, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the. The whole landscape has changed when WeWork completely blew up the whole IPO market. And that affected...

Yeah, tell us that story, because I remember the S-1 going out, but then did they get out? Well, what ended up happening, look, as I said, it's built on confidence. And when, you know, everybody, it was huge money put into WeWork, he was lauded by, he came down to the floor many times. And it wasn't until the night before everyone needs to know this, that on the end of the road show is when all the financials are given out to the public. And it turned out that it was all smoking mirrors, and he had spent all the money on, on prostitutes and blow and that the company had nothing no basis behind it and so it was aborted. The deal was aborted and what that did was it changed amazingly enough that one stock could change the landscape of IPOs for years. It literally everyone said, guys here windows closed

that's what closed. That's what closed. And I remember Jim Kramer on Mad Money was saying we don't want this. We don't want this. Exactly. Remember that quote. And so to think that you know something about what's going on and we didn't know anything on literally until the night before made such a huge impact on the market. It literally has taken a couple of years to grow out of that. Before that, we had had some really wonderful robust years in remax and a bunch of stock. They would open, a huge premiums. We were trading 10 IPOs a day. Give us a quick history on Klarna, right? Because Klarna's tried to get out a couple times. Okay, so I don't know the history about Klarna. All I know is that I watched how it opened here. So it did take a little

while. It did open at 52, I think, right? And so it's not trading, you know what? It's hard to know. So what's important about it is where the bids are, where the offers are, and how the foundation looks. So where the bodies are buried within the stock when it opens, right? There was enough stock at 52 bid on balance, which is what it's called. So stocks pair off that are priced accordingly. So four point something million shares open, that means that they were market orders. They had no limits to them and that's they, that was, they paired themselves off. It was a 52 bid for 300,000 on balance meant that there was a stabilizing bid, whether it was by the Goldman Sachs the company or the banker or not, but that's what made it open at 52.

If there had been more to buy at the market, it would have opened higher or more to sell, it would have opened lower. It opened at 52. It did trade up to 5720 on a small bit, 70,000 shares traded up, and then it came in. It's trading at a couple dollars lower, which is reasonable. It does not have the power and the impact that Figma and Bullish did. Figma and Bullish did. So, but all three of these are relatively.

like is there a specific strategy that that these IPOs have had in terms of like pricing at a at a at a at a at a at what feels like uh very reasonable like so you know what they're they're they're pricing it based on the reaction to to what the what the investment community is like to give yeah it is so some the other ones got priced at 30 there was an oversupply over demand at 30 they opened it to 30 that's how it will go so the night the last night when they go out to the road show to give out to the road show to give out allocations, they will get a sense of where that valuation should be. And then that's where they will give it up. They left some talk on money on the table, as did those other IPOs. The other ones opened at 90 and went to 117. That was bullish. And Figma also traded a huge premium. My gut is that the sectors that they were in, there's a lot of pressure on this sector right now. And so those sectors were more I-Cloud and AI-based, right? And so I think that's why there was a little more pop to it. Well, we know you have to get out of here. Thank you so much for stopping by the show. We'd love to get back sometime. Anytime. I'm always going to talk for another two hours.

Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. We need to dive into the Apple and the iPhone announcement briefly. Obviously, there's been talked about. It happened a couple days ago. But the post that stuck out to me, there were a few about the design, but the big one was that the iPhone 17 Pro now has more graphics power than an M2 MacBook Air. I have, this is a MacBook Air. I don't know if this might be the M3 or M4 version. Would you have clocked you as an air guy? I just went for it because I was like, I'm traveling more.

I'm less in workstation mode. And so like let me give this one a try. And let me see. I have the, I have the M4. So I think I have more power here than the iPhone 17 Pro. But even just two years ago, it's crazy to think how quickly the chips are shifting from workstation, which is huge, you know, you know, laptop, two, phone.

And so I wanted to talk about what the downstream implications of this are. Did you, did you see the camera functionality? Apparently, if you take a, you can take a photo holding your phone vertically and it will give you the horizontal. Yeah, because again, it's, I think it's a square sensor that's maybe 48 megapixels.

Are you feeling about the orange? Do you think this is, this is Tim Cook signaling that he's a BTC maxi. Oh, I thought it was him talking, giving a little nod to Gary Tan my combinator. That's one of one or one of the other. Clearly I had to be one of the other. It is the color the colors. I like I like orange. I think it's an under underrated color in general, but still the color options were interesting. Like no map you would have thought they would have done a matte black. They didn't do Matt black this year. They just, wow. So they have a silver and like a blue, I think, something like that. I like orange. I think it's a cool,

bold color. I think it's one of the ways to stand out. It's McLaren orange, you know? McLaren orange. Looks like F1. Maybe it's a nod to that. Who knows? But they're having fun with it. Hopefully next year, the color I'm pulling for, ramp yellow. Can you imagine the ramp yellow iPhone? It just might happen. Maybe we'll make it happen. But on the tech side, you know, people were pretty like there were a couple takes early that were pretty like bearish like oh like nothing changed nothing changed and uh ben thompson summed it up pretty well tim cook i mean you had a funny banger about this i mean tim tim cook posted um he did post yeah the morning of and he was like days like this make apple you know like like like basically like hyped it up as as though

it was going to be this sort of dramatic announcement and yeah and i think people were pretty yeah pretty let down at this point they if it's not a change in the overall form factor like you're going to folding phone it's not going to be as easy just to talk about completely um but at the same time it has a bunch of it has a bunch of improvements that i think will have downstream effects that might be interesting and might actually have kind of these like viral moments and yeah i'll get into my thesis here so uh it has a vapor chamber in it that allows it to cool so if you're in the sun or you're running, you know, you're running some heavy-duty app. You're not going to get your, your phone's not going to be as hot anymore. 50% more RAM, obviously, that's important for AI. And then they

have a new chip that's designed with the LLM transformer architecture in mind. So the Apple A series of chips, they've always been somewhat AI optimized, but more for just broader machine learning tasks. Now, they're doing the same thing that Open AI is doing with Nvidia and Broadcom on chip design. Same thing that Google DeepMind TPU team is doing over at Google and Anthropics working with Amazon and Traneum. Here's my post introducing iPhone 4,000, a newer, better iPhone that's lighter, faster, newer and better by. How many, where did this land? How many likes did this wind up getting? Six thousand? Six thousand. And the funny story here, the little inside baseball, Jordy posted this exact post like five minutes earlier.

Well, so I originally had this post as a draft and then I altered it. Yep. And I posted it and it completely, I had a different picture and I did iPhone 472. And it was just completely flopping. It got like one like on like 300 impressions. Like people hated it. The timeline hated it. I just went back to this version, posted it and then it completely ripped.

So never give up. Never give up. You think you have a good bit. But the funny thing here, I mean, obviously it is funny that Apple always comes out. It's like, it's our most powerful iPhone ever because it's like, well, if it was a less, if you guys messed up and accidentally created a less powerful iPhone, you would just keep selling the current one. You're never going to come out and be like, this year we're selling one, the latest iPhone, but it's less powerful. Because just sell the last one then. Just be like no new iPhone because we couldn't make it any more powerful.

Yeah. We actually made it. We made it perfect. We made it perfect. Yeah, I mean, how are you? feeling about the air? I think that's going to sell incredibly well. I don't know. I'll need to feel it and try it. I've never had any iPhone that's not just like the biggest and most of the biggest screen, the maxed out one. I've always gone for like the most power, the biggest one. I've

actually considered carrying an iPad mini just as a phone because I'm so big that my pockets are big enough to carry an iPad mini. You just put it in your back pocket. Yeah, no, no. I was feeling it, and I was like, you can get it with cell service. And so I think you can get a phone number on there. And so you can just have, like, pull out your giant iPad Mini. But I never did that. I've always just stuck to, like, the pro max, the big one, the big screen, but it's easy. The, I don't know, the interesting thing about the iPhone air was this, you know,

the whole computer is in the camera bump now. And basically everything that drops down is just battery and screen, battery and screen all the way down. And so people are wondering, like, you know, they could clearly take out the battery and the screen, maybe make like a pin. Like, they're getting so good at miniaturizing, like, what it means to be a computer that they can put that in all sorts of different things. I would be, would have been really excited to have an iPhone that doesn't, that will sit flat on a surface without a case on it. Yeah. I haven't used cases in many years. I just like the feeling of the phone.

It is crazy that they've never tried that. It's just perpetually like on, you know, it just give me like a flat surface. Like, I'm happy for the phone to be as thick as necessary to just give me a flat surface. And it looked like they were going to do that with the iPhone pro because it has this wider notch. So at least if you did, if you did the notch evenly all the way across. I guess it might be nice if it's kind of like. Yeah, that's fine, I guess. I don't know.

But it's also so funny, the idea of like you have this incredible camera. Yeah. And then you're just like putting it on like, I really want you to buy a. case like it's like a lot of the product design seems driven by I don't I don't think that's the real I don't think that's the real reason I think it's I think it's I think it's I think it's genuinely like people don't like heavy phones and so you have to balance like you need you need the optics of a camera this certain thickness and then you need the phone to be thin so that people actually carried around and aren't like this thing's heavy tinfoil hat yes it's case I think I think they I don't think they

I don't think they make that much money how much money do you think they make from cases I mean They're adding, what percentage of people do you think when they go to that buy an iPhone, buy an Apple case? I would estimate that it's less than 1% of their overall revenue. Cases, yeah. Totally. But you're talking to the goat of profit maximization, Tim Cook. There's just so many other ways. I feel like you can sell 1% more iPhones if you actually choose this odd choice because people are like, well, yeah, it's the lightest iPhone.

It's lighter than the Samsung one. It's thinner, it's lighter. It looks great. And then there might be something about like the notch kind of holding on your finger. And so you can actually hold the phone easier with that as opposed to if it was just like fully, fully smooth. Anyway. But yeah, I mean, when you start thinking of when you start like the incremental sales from like design driven decisions like this. I do think it would be significant.

But anyway, a huge keynote, filmed on an iPhone, obviously, a lot less graphics this time around. My take on the iPhone pro was we're getting to the point where you could run an LLM on device. And even if it's not Apple intelligence, you know, through that API, just the ability to actually distill something that's like GPT4 level and have it be free. Not even an API call that you need, not even cheap on a per token. in basis, but actually just have something that you can basically drag and drop. Cost of the energy. Cost of the energy. And no one thinks about it because they charge on the edge because they charge their

phone every night anyway. So I was talking to Tyler about this earlier. Try and put into context how powerful an LLM running on device could be with this next iPhone. Because currently people have done it. I feel like people have distilled models to the point where they can run locally on phones. but they're not fast or they're not smart, but it feels like we might be at a point where you get to some sort of like touring,

touring test passing plus not waiting for ever. Sorry, Chad is asking if it's Niko Rosberg. It is. It is, it is Nika Rosberg. Yes, it is. The former F-1 World Champion. And now a capital allocator. Now a capital allocator.

So, yeah, Tyler, what is your take? As this gets into people's hands, how solid do you think the actual, interactions with LLMs could be on device. Yeah, so I think it's 12 gigabytes now, up from 8. Yep. So you can probably run like a very solid, like 7 billion parameter, like not super quantized model.

We've had those for a long time that are like very solid. Like obviously they're going to pass turning tests, whatever. Sure. You're probably not going to be using it for like doing your like hard physics homework. yeah um but like most like things that you want from like a non-device model like helping look at your emails or like doing stuff that like you would think of like like a really good Siri product would do yeah i think it's like totally capable of doing that um i mean it's like i don't think that apple intelligence was bad because the hardware was lacking it was like like i mean you can

it'll be a little bit slower probably to run on cloud maybe um yeah i mean with my experience with apple intelligence was it was just just instantiated in very odd ways it what they they didn't really have like a killer app there uh and it was like a bunch of different things that kind of piped in and you could like highlight text and then just say rewrite this uh all sort of like very incremental games summaries yeah yeah what the summaries but sometimes that's might be the best feature actually yeah it's a feature not a bug we just saw you just saw one in our group chat where I posted some fake news and Apple summarizes it's like Gabe says shouldn't be shouldn't Tyler be back in school Gabe you must have missed

the episode but Tyler taking a gap semester he is riding with us yeah and so I think it's I think there's like there's something magical about getting the ability to inference a GPT 4 level model on the edge for free. You can quibble about the level of intelligence that is, but it is actually too cheap to meter because you won't even have to set up an API key. And so you can vend in a GPT4 level model and then go viral

and not have a bill show up and not need to think about monetization, not need to think about anything that's a drag on your just pure virality. You can have a free app that just grows and grows and grows and and figure out the monetization later. And I feel like this sets us up for maybe something interesting to happen in consumer.

We haven't really had that moment of, you remember the lens of moment, the magic avatars? You upload your picture and it turns you into Superman or something. And then the studio Ghibli moment. We haven't had that many, like, viral apps that are purely based on LLM interactions, like text interactions. There's been a couple, like, there was one called like Generative Dungeons. Do you remember this? It was like a dungeon crawler text thing.

So it would say like you walk up to the dragon's lair, what do you want to do? And you could just type like, I brandish my sword. And then it would say like the dragon. That was like GPT too. Yeah, there was super low level, right? So imagine that plus like, but you can do it on device at a reasonable level and you can bring in some other UI elements from the iPhone, bring in the camera, bring in GPS, bring in, you know, all the other tools that are available just in the iOS, like, Swift, like, you know, developer kits, the SDKs.

I feel like there will be a ton of people that are just building cool, interesting things on the iPhone that could potentially, like, go viral and then become real businesses. Yeah, I don't think this will be that, like, meaningful for, like, Apple intelligence, because it's not, like, that's, like, a product issue. It's not, like, a hardware issue. but yeah I definitely think for like third-party developers this will be like pretty big you can do like you know if you make some random game you can now have like avatars or whatever yeah like if you make the SDK really easy where like it's very easy to inference in LM you don't have to like figure out how to like download and then do inference and all that stuff if they like abstract that away yeah I think it could be interesting and I just feel like we've

seen so many there's been so many companies we talked to some folks at Demo Day who are doing this where they were like we have this cool AI agent that like scrapes your emails and does this And it all is predicated on you installing a Mac app, which is a really, really hard thing to do. Yeah, how many Mac apps do you think you've installed this year? Oh, it's super rare. It's super rare. You know, I got something to put the decks together.

Like, I literally have a Chrome. Like, that's the one I install. I'm looking at my home row and it's like, it's just Chrome. Well, and this is why everybody's obsessed with the browser. Truly, truly, because if you can get people, over there that then you're there. But I have installed apps and I've installed little tiny apps. We were talking about the workout tracking app strong that I saw my friend at the gym. He was using an app to track his workouts. I said, what app is that? I went and download it.

You went and downloaded it. It was very easy for that app to like loosely go viral and it's a free app, but it doesn't have any like AI. It doesn't really need any AI. But you could imagine that the viral coefficient of someone downloads an app. They have a magical experience. with some twist on top of an LLM, something storytelling, something, astrology, who knows what it'll be. I can't predict it. It's as hard to predict as Instagram or Uber, but it's unlocked by having this ability for free on the iPhone. And then people are sharing screenshots of, oh, I had this hilarious interaction, or this was incredible, or I love this app. They create some viral loop.

They do some McKee to Beer type stuff. And then everyone's downloading the app. And then it gets actually really, really big. and I don't think it's going to be a competent. I don't think it's going to compete with Chachapit. I think it's going to be a completely different thing, and it's very hard to predict, but it feels like we might be seeing it.

Yeah. And it's going to require some, like, really, you know, cracked level of creativity like what we saw with Harry Potter Balenciaga, where it's like the technology existed, and then someone came up with the great idea to actually go, like, instantiate it.

So if you're going to be walking that app up, you're going to do it in figma.com. Think bigger, build fast, Bigma helps design and development teams build great products together. You can get started for free. The Wall Street Journal was also covering the Apple's iPhone Air. They had a whole interview. They had really good coverage of the iPhone event.

There was a few, there was one thing in the reporting from the Wall Street Journal. I don't have this particular article actually, but they did an article with the Wall Street Journal. And Apple revealed that I believe they said the majority of iPhones, 51% or more, that are shipping to America are going to be made in India. And I'm not sure if it was this cycle, but it seemed like they were taking the tariff stuff really seriously, moving the actual manufacturing capacity around. Obviously, Foxcon, their manufacturer partners at Taiwanese company, and so they're worried about geopolitical risk as well. And so just another, another data point around Tim Cook, he is not loudly shouting like, America, I'm all in reindustrialize, but he is making moves. What was the number he threw out at the dinner last week? Wasn't it? I don't know if he had a number. Because who was it? It was, Zuck had a number. And did Apple have a number two? That was $600 billion or something? Apple has thrown out a number at one point.

You're completely right. My point is that we've seen a few data points. Oh, yeah, yeah. The number of thank you. This is a lot. But we've seen he's invested in some rare earth developments in the United States and starting to think about manufacturing internationally. And the pro bullish bet on Tim Cook is that if he was able to set up this

in China, and he's the reason he can set it up somewhere else because he's the guy who did it. And so even though he hasn't been really loud about his moves, because obviously if he says, like, oh, yeah, I'm not going to be manufacturing in China anymore than like his important business partners over there are probably going to be like, well, yeah, like, we're not going to take your business seriously anymore. There are a ton of different geopolitical considerations. It's such an iconic line from the dinner. What is that? Cook says, I've always enjoyed dinner and interacting.

yeah if you're getting dinner this weekend with one of your boys just tell like how to say something that like no one can can't you know cancel you for it's like i've always enjoyed dinner and interacting two things i've enjoyed he's a dinner and he's not saying i've always enjoyed dinner with you yep and interacting with you he's just saying i've always enjoyed dinner and incredible he putting on a claim i i feel like for watching somebody's like i was watching the Tucker, Sam Altman interview. And there's a certain level of polish that some of these, some of these CEOs have when they get to a certain level of media training and public speaking experience where I think

of them more as like word rotators than word cells or shape rotators. Like they can, they can so quickly like shift a sentence to be like, like that, like so perfectly balanced where you're like, wow, every word in that sentence was calculated so that it's the rides this perfect line like, uh, like Sam was going back and forth with Tucker and Tucker's like, I didn't accuse you. I didn't accuse you. And you, and if you run back the transcript, you're like, yeah, technically he didn't. And it was not an accusation. But then, you know, they're, they're rotating the sentences around to try and like pin each other. It's like watching a wrestling match. It's crazy. Tim Cook said they would be investing $600 billion.

600 billion. Yeah. Okay. So Apple says the majority of iPhones shipped to the U.S. are now assembled in India, meaning they face no tariff. Yet Indian suppliers aren't yet capable of delivering as many of the pro models that U.S. consumers demand. So most of those still come from China. So this is the majority of iPhones in total because Apple makes a ton of those, but they can't make the leading edge. And then the other thing that everyone always talks about with this like assembled in India is not the same as fully manufactured in India. Obviously, the advantage to Chinese manufacturing prowess is that you'll walk across the street and there's a CNC shop with 25,000 CNC machines that can just immediately make you any part and make a million of those parts if you need. So obviously it's going

to be a long road for them to set up manufacturing anywhere other than China, but it does seem like Tim Cook's taking a seriously. I would love to understand Tim's actual strategy here because I don't think he's saying, I'm going to invest. He's not going to be in a huge hurry to invest that $600 billion, right? He may, you know, he may not actually believe it's at all the right decision for Apple and he's just feeling like he needs to placate the admin. And then if, and then in 2028 comes around and you just, you know, can pull back or pull out. There's also like so much to $600 billion of Kappax over what, five years or something like that. Like that includes HQ. That includes

data centers for ICloud that need to be local. If you're streaming the F1 movie on Apple TV Plus, you don't want that stream coming from a data center across the world necessarily. It needs to be cash locally. So there are like so many different pieces of the business

building more Apple stores. That counts as KAPEX if they build them and they, you know, so 600 billion doesn't necessarily mean like yes, like we're building like the one plant because you know, this is like a rainforest forest of complexity that actually delivers the iPhone. It's not just like one iPhone factory, please.

It's like a whole network of things. Battery life appears to be a challenge for the air. Apple always says like all day battery life, but people are like, what kind of all day? Are we talking? Are we talking scrolling for 18 hours? Are we talking to proper scroll? Proper doom scroll.

Apple announced a few battery accessory that will attach to the air. And obviously, that's no longer as thin. The company added what it calls a plateau on the back of the air and pro models, adding thickness at the top of the device to fit bigger and hotter chips. Not a bump. It's a plateau. It's a plateau. Yeah.

Oh, they're rebranding. Maybe they're signaling that we're, maybe this is Gardner hype cycle coded. The plateau productivity. I mean, they have plateaued in productivity for sure. The hype cycle, they've been through it. They're like, first hype cycle? First hype cycle? I've been here. I'm plateauing. I'm getting productive.

Open AI, the nonprofit is going to control its for-profit arm and own equity valued at $100 billion. I believe this will make it the most highly valued nonprofit or like the most profitable nonprofit in world history. The best funded nonprofit, right? And it is remarkable to think about what that will be like. People have kind of written off the nonprofit as like what's going away like it is not going away like it will continue to be a thing it's it's incredibly back uh funded forever essentially to do a ton of interesting things i think we're going to see interesting things about come out of that organization uh but anyway the news this is from the journal and we'll and we'll break this down but nick has it summarized here open a i LLC will be converted into a delaware public

benefit corporation open a i non-profit retains control of the new public benefit corporation The nonprofit will hold $100 billion plus of equity in the public benefit corporation. The PBC structure enables raising large amounts of capital for the mission, which obviously there are you doing. They're still aligned with ensuring AGI benefits all of humanity. I think that's good. Also aligned with like your shareholders, like if you're just a normal C Corp, I know they're a public benefit corporation, but if you're just normal C corp like shareholders

are humans, let's make sure it benefits the shareholders, that will by definition. benefit humanity, but specifically they're saying all of humanity, even if you're not a shareholder, AGI should still benefit you, which is a noble cause. Open AI and Microsoft signed a non-binding MOU for the next phase of the partnership. A. Definitive agreement is still being negotiated. Open AI says it's engaging in California and Delaware as it stands, Microsoft gets 20% of Open AIs revenue for the big man. Something like that. Something like that, which it felt like a stretch to me that that that was. would be sustainable given the looming costs that open AI needs to incur.

Obviously, they're ramping revenue really quickly, but you have Broadcom to pay, you have Oracle to pay, you have all these. But it is kind of revenue, you know, it's not the same as being like, we're on the $1005 billion. Yeah, it's not a fixed cost. Exactly. But still, it's a lot of, you know, there's these companies are under margin pressure already. And wasn't the original deal that it would, it would be, 20% up until they paid a hundred billion dollars or something like that there was something where like it eventually ran its course I believe it had an ending

and I think that's what's justifying a lot of the underwriting because the lesson from Google the lesson from Facebook the lesson from you know Microsoft and the rest of the hyperscalers was that you needed your DCF models to be 20 or 30 years into the future right yeah and so if you just if you if you if you if If you didn't take into account the third decade of growth, you were undervaluing. It was originally reported 20% through 2030, which still is. I don't think a lot of investors are scared by thinking about value in 2035. I think they're fine with that now.

I think they're saying like, yeah, I have a 10-year fund and realistically all the best venture investments, SpaceX is still hanging out in the portfolio 20 years later. They got continuation funds. I think that a lot of investors are actually fine to say, yeah, this company's going to be, like, you know, maybe a financial mess for 10 years. But if I'm super confident, it's going to be a money printing machine in 20, I'll do the deal all day. Yeah. I think that's it's still insane to think that the deal ever got done in the first place. Is it a Microsoft deal? Yeah. If you were, if, if, if you talk to a founder and they were like,

yeah, I was running a fundraise and like, you know, ended up taking this deal. I got the valuation I wanted, but ultimately it gave up 20% of revenue off the top too. So not 20% of of like profits but like a 20 percent tax on gross revenue yeah uh just for the just still 2030 yeah and the founders like well it doesn't matter that much because i'm in this for like 20 years you're yeah you most most do not get the pass on that yeah very few businesses very few businesses in the world especially like highly competitive you know categories uh can sustain a 20 percent tax off the top. Yep. And still really produce any profits or be functioning at all. Obviously, I'll push you off. What if your, what if your business is mobile games in the app store?

You've been, in Apple, 20 percent, 30 percent tax off the top for everything. There's a bunch of examples. Like, Nvidia could do this too, right? And they sort of are. Yeah, yeah. So I don't know. I mean, I agree with you. Like it is, it is a crazy, crazy deal, unprecedented in a million ways, but everything about the entire Open AI story is unprecedented, unprecedented to start as a nonprofit, unprecedented to have, who are the co-founders, Elon Musk, Peter Thiel, like you have like seven different co-founders who have, a bunch of co-founders have gone off and start direct competitors, that doesn't happen very often. Usually people are like, I got bags in the category, I'm going to go work on something else. Yeah, there's a bunch of weird

stuff.