TBPN Live - X Under Attack, Dom Day, Yardsale Thesis, Manus, Bread and Taxes, DeepSeek

Episode Date: March 10, 2025

TBPN.com is made possible by:Ramp - https://ramp.comEight Sleep - https://eightsleep.com/tbpnWander - https://wander.com/tbpnPublic - https://public.comAdQuick - https://adquick.comBezel - https://getbezel.comFollow TBPN: https://TBPN.comhttps://x.com/tbpnhttps://open.spotify.com/show/2L6WMqY3GUPCGBD0dX6p00?si=674252d53acf4231https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/technology-brothers/id1772360235https://youtube.com/@technologybrotherspod?si=lpk53xTE9WBEcIjV(00:00) - We're under attack! (01:22) - The Yardsale (13:10) - Manus (28:22) - Bread and Taxes (47:17) - Palmer in the WSJ (01:00:00) - DeepSeek Update (01:15:00) - Smart Car Technology (01:27:21) - The Timeline

You're watching TVPN. Today is Monday, March 10th, 2025. We are live from the temple of technology, the fortress of finance, the capital of capital. This show starts now. We got a great show for you today. We are under attack folks, hackers, the timeline is in turmoil. They've seen what we've been doing with this show. They know it's too powerful. They're coming for you. They're coming for us. Be afraid. They came for the whole platform. Be afraid. What is going on? Elon says it's a cyber attack by a nation state.

He does. We do have some. We have a post, we already printed it. It went up and we printed it immediately. Elon says there was slash still is a massive cyber attack against Axe. We get attacked every day, but this was done with a lot of resources.

Either a large coordinated group or a country is involved. He's tracing it, and then someone in the comments says, they wanna silence you and this platform, and he says, yes, so we know the truth. This platform, we are part of this platform. They're trying to silence us, but we can't be stopped. We're still streaming, we're still live. We're still reading posts out loud, But first we got to talk about this weekend

I went skiing in Lake Tahoe Fantastic and we wanted to break down what's going on if you haven't followed the markets in turmoil It's in freefall and we have a thesis for what's for what's going on and we have a bunch of evidence to back this up We do we do we do it folks the yard sale the yard sale It's a yard sale for those that don't't know, a yard sale is when you're skiing and you have a bad enough accident that all of your gear basically just gets rejected off of your body and spread out.

Both poles and both skis get spread out. And oftentimes the helmet, goggles, and gloves. Yeah, exactly. And so they get spread out over the mountain and you have to go and kind of collect yourself. And it looks like a yard sale because everything's laid out so you can pick them. Today is don't check your public account.

Just don't even look at it. Don't even look at it. Just watch. Stay with us. But it's an absolute- Maybe it's a good day to teach people about dollar cost averaging. Yeah.

Right, and not trying to time the markets. Yeah. Never works, so that's what we'll be talking about today. Yeah, I actually have to, when Nvidia, after DeepSeek announcement and Nvidia went down tremendously, I was down 15%, I just instantly bought it. I'm guessing a round trip.

You probably got a round trip, yeah, for sure. But for a minute there, for about a month, I looked like a genius. Oh, it was glorious, yeah, you looked genius. I looked like a genius. Okay, so we, but anyway, so this is John's working theory. He was skiing this weekend, he sort of figured this out, but the the yard the yard sale thesis. Yeah the yard What is that? What is the genesis of it? Okay, talk to the so the yard sale thesis is essentially as everyone knows

During ski season all the greatest capital allocators in the world head to the slopes Yeah, they're sitting on ski lifts and what's unique about ski lifts It's almost it's very much like a sauna in that there in that there's no one that's eavesdropping on you. There's not a lot of technology around. People can speak freely and you also wind up with somewhat random people, but everyone's kind of in the same milieu because they're all paying $2,000 a day to ski at some icon pass or epic pass location.

And so. I don't know about 2,000. Are you talking about room and board and everything? I mean, I'm pretty sure the lift tickets are like over 600 now a day for like a one day thing. So yeah. So there's this filter that basically says, you know, there's this economic floor that basically you have to be a capital allocator, get on the slopes these days with the prices

where they are. But that creates a lot of random chance interactions between folks who have different insights into different pieces of the market. And they're moving size. They're moving size for sure. And they're speaking freely because they're just like, I'm up here, I'm cold, I'm trying to just bond with someone on this ski lift. And I'm not worried

I'm being eavesdropped on because I'm not in an office. I'm not I'm not a crowded coffee shop. Yep, I'm on a I'm on a ski chair lift. And so so the rumors start flying the rumor mill happens on the ski lift. And if you'll see at the end of the ski lift, there's always a sign says tips up. Yeah, it's like it says like put the stock tips away guys, because you don't want the stock tips going out. Once you're off the ski lift, you want to keep on the sign. You don't want that you don't want to be getting a out once you're off the ski lift. You wanna keep one on the ski lift.

You don't wanna be getting a notification that says the market is down 20%. Exactly, tips up. Tips up. And the other thing, the other factor is even on gondolas, there's a big issue where, let's say you're skiing with a buddy, you get on a gondola, maybe it's a six person gondola,

everybody's got their goggles on, their helmets, two guys think they're just having a regular conversation. They don't know that somebody that has 10 billion of AUM is two seats over picking that up and trading. This happened to me. Cause I would get on, I was in full gear, you couldn't tell who I was,

and I would overhear people saying, oh, there's like TBPN, it's like the biggest thing, like it's the best thing ever, like it's taking over the world. I wish they did Seven Days of We. A lot of people were saying like, I used to be a podcaster, I'm actually shutting down because of what's going on with TPPN.

But they probably wouldn't have said that if they knew that I was sitting right there. Yeah, yeah, yeah. So those types of conversations. That's because they don't know you're 6'8". Yeah, yeah, exactly. There's not that many 6'8 people skiing if they knew you were 6'8",

but you're sitting down all the time on the show, so it's hard to tell. Yeah, exactly. So there's a lot of stock tips flying around and you know, sometimes someone has a little tip Hey, maybe Silicon Valley Bank isn't so hot you hear it on the ski chair You go you take a short position one thing leads to another and the whole company collapses But you think we're crazy you think this is some weird thing that oh really there should just be like the average amount of financial Collapses and frauds are discovered during ski season, right? It's only a couple months, but we have a list here

for you of financial frauds that happened during ski season. And when you hear this long list, you're going to start believing in the yard sale, the yard sale theory of finance. You're going to believe us because look, Black Monday, the global stock market crashed right when the mountains around October 19 1987 the Dow Jones plunges 22.6 percent a single day. Yeah. Like I mean yeah it was probably early early but it was it was you know oftentimes yeah the mountains not open to everyone. Yeah. You got to have a special relationship you know. Yeah exactly.

And and so the only people that would even be skiing then are the most important are the most allocators. The heaviest. Definitely. Yeah. The Bering's Bank collapse. February 16th. I mean, yeah, there's no other way to explain this. Yeah. And this was a twenty two hundred and thirty three year old UK based merchant bank. They failed after a rogue traders unauthorized losses. Those

those losses, 830 million bankrupt of the firm. Those could have been hidden for months more. But of course, rumor mill comes out on the ski lift and boom, gone dead. So we were in 20. We got to figure out more about this because it's a 233 year old company and one dude goes rogue. Oh, there's maybe that's great. Maybe because he wasn't invited on a ski trip. He was in Singapore. They don't ski there yeah yeah that's probably what happened yeah yeah the rest of the firm back in the UK was going to Switzerland and he he got a was it did they even have email and so he gets an email he says it's I know I think they might they might have faxes but not many emails 95

that's like right on the cusp of email Yeah, well speaking of email comm crash March 10th, 2000 That that's actually 25 years ago today it became By the 2000s it was ubiquitous. Yeah mid Mid 90s they were definitely using you probably sent an email to a client. Yep, Otto or not a client his co-worker auto response Yep. Hey, I'm in Switzerland this weekend skiing with a firm and he realized how he just goes like I Gotta make more money cuz I gotta be able to get on these ski trips. Yeah, that's for sure

What's out bankrupts is 233 year old company It is that you can you believe it's the 25 year anniversary of the dotcom crash? March 10th, 2000. Wow. There was a 78% index drop by 20 by 2002, just total, total sell off. And everyone's like, Oh, it's so telling. Like there's a minor drop today. It's, you know, forecast. Uh, but it doesn't feel like that. It feels crazy today. Anyway, Enron scandal,

December 2, 2001. The Argentine economic crisis in December of 2001. The Parmalat bankruptcy. The Enron of Europe, December 24, 2003. Early ski season. There was a dairy giant. Pre-Christmas. Dairy giant. Bear Stearns collapsed during ski season. Bernie Madoff was discovered during ski season. You know that that has to be a ski season tip. That has chairlift tip all over it. Somebody said, hey, I tried to pull my funds out.

He said, give me a few years. Theranos was discovered March 14th. You know, John Carey Rue was probably on the slopes picking something up from some investor who passed and saw the data room. The COVID-19 market crash, I mean, really, clearly, really the fault of ski season. Evergrande, FTX, SVB, and Credit Suisse all happened during ski season.

This last one makes total sense. Yeah. Because I'm sure that deal if this was a rescue, but I'm sure that deal was getting done In Switzerland on the slope So it's one of those things definitely get the catalyst for these crashes are happening on the slopes And then the fix is also happening on the slopes. Yes, it's for sure. You know interesting scenario for sure anyways Get me did you get any danger any tips this weekend? For sure. You know, interesting scenario. For sure. Anyways. Stay sharp. Did you get any tips this weekend?

Not too many tips. Just the usual rare fish, rare birds. Perpetual alpha. Buying mice in a five to one female to male ratio and releasing them in your competitors office. Just the usual stuff. A lot of people on your trip were probably doing that years ago exactly exactly it's kind of an old price data at this point uh most competitors have mice defenses this boy it's priced in yeah i heard there's a rumor that there's a firm building a godzilla sized humanoid robot and uh sort of shaking up the market. Part of why

going Pacific Rim. Yeah I mean it's part of why Tesla is down. Tesla this year at least Tesla is down over 36 percent in the last month and some people are saying it's because somebody came out and they're making a humanoid a humanoid That's a hundred times bigger. Yeah optimus. Yeah and So anyways market obviously pricing that in yeah I mean the real the real risk is the dripped out humanoid right as soon as someone puts it in Marjula, y'all

Yaga, then it's truly over. Yeah Speaking of it's truly over. Yeah. Speaking of it's over. I have a funny post here from David Holes, founder of Mid Journey. He's quoting Intel that just tweeted AI and then he quote tweets and says it's over. It really is. They didn't quite talk to it. But they they they marked like the last sort of potentially the the dying breath of the bull market It's it's pretty powerful like if you're running that brand like and you're self-aware and you understand that by by you're going to

Like the read on you posting that is going to be top Yep Maybe you should move Intel's entire Treasury into a short position and then tweet AI. Yeah. That's a really powerful move. Yeah. You need to make a quick buck. You're not really making much

in semiconductors anymore. Intel's saying chipset going away. We need a different source of capital for this. Yeah, become a hedge fund. Yeah. Just know that by being extremely cranged on the timeline, you can move the market, Intel. Yeah.

They did it. They did it. They did it. Anyway, you can move the market Intel. Yeah, they did it. They did it. They did it. They did it. Anyway, should we move on to some of these, some of these more serious stories? It is, it is interesting. I'm sure somebody out there has a ridiculous

conspiracy theory that requires a tinfoil hat that basically says that if you were a hedge fund that was needing to unwind a lot of positions, and you knew that like a lot of trading Activity was catalyzed by like general You know the retail traders are on acts being like what is happening like the markets down and you needed to unwind like one If you needed like an ad to buy, you know Yeah

Just just take down X you start, you start unwinding those positions. Interesting. Totally, probably unrealistic, but it's funny to think about. Yeah, yeah, interesting. I mean, my experience on X today has not been that bad. I've been seeing most things, I feel like. You said it was really bad for you. Terrible, yeah.

But maybe they're targeting you because you're too powerful. But I think it could be they could be faking it. One, to elevate their brand. We're so important that a nation state would attack us. And two. Ex-faking it? Yeah, yeah, yeah. And two, to remind us how good the app is.

Yeah, yeah, yeah. And to say, we can take this away at any time. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah. Pony up an extra $10 a month. I still think the leading theory is they're coming after us Yeah, anyway China

Autonomous agent manas changes everything article in can we can we create a Forbes? Manoose I'm gonna call it Manu's Manu's I mean I don't know you should probably I think you're right that it's anyway. There's a profile in in the Forbes about some. Yeah, this was shaken up the timeline. Yeah. Last week. Why don't we read through it? And then I have some other supporting posts. One recent evening in Shenzhen, a group of software engineers gathered in a dimly lit coworking space. You know, you're in the journalistic trenches when you're writing about dimly lit co-working spaces everyone if something's dimly lit

We need to get into the profile Furiously typing as they monitor the performance of their new AI system The air was electric thick with the hum of servers and the glow of high-resolution monitors They were testing man is a revolutionary AI agent capable of independent thought and action It says it was written by manis AI For journalism now Craig Smith, but what do you know what publication this is in Forbes? Okay, so they paid for it. I Mean it is crazy that Forbes has like a contributor section that you can just post anything. It's like Forbes. Forbes is also like a magazine that has like some pretty legitimate writers. And then it's also just like a forum with anyone that can post.

So within hours, it's March 6th launch would send shockwaves through the global AI community, reigniting a debate that had simmered for decades. What happens when artificial intelligence stops asking for permission and starts making its own decisions? Manus is not just another chat bot, nor is it merely an improved search engine dressed in futuristic branding. It is the world's first fully autonomous AI agent, a system that doesn't just assist humans,

it replaces them from analyzing financial transactions to screening job candidates. Manus navigates the digital world without oversight, making decisions with a speed and precision. This is an insane article. It is. Especially once we get into the actual, like how this product was built.

I love it. That's why you come here, folks. We haven't read the article yet, but we will tell you that it's insane if it's crazy. No, no, no, it's crazy and I'll just jump to it. This account, geonxleow says, so I simply asked Manish to give me the files at slash opt slash dot Manish.

And it just gave me their sandbox runtime code. It's Claude Sonnet with a bunch of tools on top of it. And it uses an out of the box, like YC company for the browser. Yeah, it's basically like a turbo wrapper. Yeah. And, and I mean, okay, so so they've and they intentionally like obfuscated the code where they're trying to not make it. They intentionally tried to hide that it was running on browser use with WOD, but it in fact is. Okay, so let's read a little bit of this.

Let's read more of this article, but I wanna know, I think as much as we're joking about, like, oh, it's paid for, I don't think that's necessarily what's happening. There is another possibility here, which is just genuine rizzing of the journalist, which happens all the time. Totally.

You can totally bring in a journalist and be like, I mean, I know someone who, I mean, we see it all the time. We see it all the time. You bring a journalist in and you're like, the value is in the box. Look in the computer. You show them RGB keyboards and they're like, what? No way, the computer is lighting up

And so like like it is possible just to like wow a journalist The good ones you're not gonna slide this past Ashley Vance one of the greatest journalists in history. That's true But who knows but at the same time, maybe there's something real here Let's dig in since we're only a paragraph in and we're already judging this book by its cover. Yep. Anyway, we're having fun here, let's dig in, since we're only a paragraph in it, we're already judging this book by its cover. Anyway, we're having fun here. Craig, I love you. Good luck. Anyway, how did China, often perceived as trailing the United States in foundation AI research,

produce something that Silicon Valley had only theorized about, and more importantly, what does it mean for the balance of power and artificial intelligence? It's really funny that we're- This is extreme Riz. I know, extreme Riz. We're already going so hard on this

and we haven't even popped the bottle of Dom Perignon. It's a Dom episode, folks, if you haven't seen our post yet today. The second Deep Bseek moment they're calling it, which I don't buy at all because I didn't actually see this takeover the timeline like Deep Bseek at all. Did you?

I mean, I saw some memes about it and some people talking about it, but it was this take over the timeline like Deep on US technology and then TechCrunch. Well, Anthropics in the UK, right? Aren't they? Wait, why do I think that? Not that I know of. Why do I think they're a European company? I don't know. Anyway. You were skiing, maybe you banged your head.

John hit his head. They just have like a European aesthetic to them, I guess. Yeah, they do have a state of mind. But I think they might literally be in San Francisco. Yeah, yeah, yeah. But then TechCrunch publishes an article that says Manus probably isn't China's second deep seek moment. OK, we tech crunched it.

Yeah. Ooh, TechCrunch and Axios, Axios, who's always sort of very bearish on Texas. New Chinese A.I. agent draws deep sea comparison. Maybe they were referencing that's true. Like that's that's like literally what happened. But Manus represents something entirely different. That's true, that's literally what happened. But MANUS represents something entirely different. It's not just another model, it's an autonomous agent, an AI system that thinks, plans, executes tasks independently, capable of navigating the real world

as seamlessly as a human intern with an unlimited attention span. And so, I mean, I guess if you're a Forbes reader and you've never heard of an AI agent, this is like informative. MANUS is unique in its ability to deliver end-to-end results across diverse domains without human prompts, while most other AI systems require some level

of human input or operate within narrower scopes, Manus acts independently, offering a seamless to self-directed experience. I mean, there is something real about autonomous agents and stuff, like it just depends on, you know, how far are we going with this? Because they're like, it doesn't require any input, and they're like, if you tell it to do this,

it will do it, it's like, well, that's an input, right? Um, autonomous agents already exist in narrow domains. Think trading. Wow. Type O trading BTO is clearly trading bots. This was hammered out. But you know, it's not AI. You know, yeah, that's the beauty of this. You know, maybe this entire article. My respect for this article just went through the roof. But Manus multi-agent architecture enhances its ability to manage complex workflows by deploying specialized sub-agents for various tasks. That's pretty cool.

A feature not yet standard in most autonomous AI systems. I don't know if that's actually true. I think there are sub-agents in some systems. But anyway. Well, this entire article is written like they took all the talking points from a PR team and just wrote it out I mean this is an open secret that like companies write Forbes articles sometimes yeah but it's not as open as it should be I guess yeah this

is what sets Manus apart from its Western counterparts. While ChatGPT-4 and Google Gemini rely on human prompts to guide them, Manus doesn't wait for instructions. Instead, it is designed to initiate tasks on its own, assess new information, and dynamically adjust its approach. For instance, given a zip file of resumes, Manus doesn't just rank candidates. It reads through each one, extracts relevant skills, cross-references them with job market trends,

and presents a fully optimized hiring decision. It's funny because OpenAI could have come out with operator and done exactly this. Oh, 100%. But they know it would be over the top. Because it would be, it just wouldn't work. Exactly, everyone would be like, oh my god.

And so I will actually be highly impressed with Manus and give them credit if we can see evidence of American users being like, this is super valuable. Yeah, totally. I'm using this for the XYZ task. Yeah, like maybe operator needs a puff piece like this, like to actually break through, that'd be good. Just, yeah, the only thing standing between operator

and world dominance is a Forbes puff piece. Yeah, yeah, let's call Sam, hey, you know, quit the going direct stuff, quit the beef, you just need puff pieces from here on out time to puff time to puff? Yeah, we need the inverse Lulu. Don't go direct. Yeah, just just puff pure puff Anyway mannus operates like an executive overseeing a team of specialized subagents probably cool and good This is called the multi-agent architecture. I think this is going to be a real trend. It's cloud-based

asynchronous operation is another game changer. I love it. Traditional AI assistants need a user's active engagement. Manus does not. It runs its tasks in the background, pinging users only when results are ready, much like a hyper efficient employee who never requires micromanagement. I want Scott Wu from Cognition on the show so badly right now, because he's been building on this. We should have him on this week. Yeah, I'll text him and see if he can come on,

because he's probably reading this being like. He's not reading this. He's way too lost. He's not reading this, let's be honest. The only article you should be reading in Forbes this week is Justin Mares, the broth king. Yes. Who will be coming on the show on Thursday. Yeah, that's great. So we love Forbes, but that's like an actual Forbes article. It was like a profile with a real writer that went and hung out with him. Yeah. Instead of just like took the talking points and kind of just managed to make this.

Okay, here let's go to Rowan Chung, a tech writer who tested Manus by asking it to write a biography of himself and build a personal website. Within minutes, the agent had scraped social media, extracted professional highlights, generated a neatly formatted biography, coded a functional website and deployed it online.

It even trouble shot hosting issues without ever asking for additional input. That's a pretty cool use case if that's doable. No, that is the real potential of this technology. It's amazing and people are gonna do it. I only have issues with how it's being framed. Yeah, a shock to Silicon Valley's system. For years, the dominant AI narrative

has centered around large US tech firms, OpenAI, Google, Meta, developing more powerful versions of their language models. The assumption was that whoever built the most sophisticated chat bot would control the future of AI. Manus disrupts that assumption. It is not just an improvement over existing AI,

it's a new category of intelligence, shifting the focus from passive assistance to self-directed action, and it is entirely Chinese built. It has triggered a new wave of unease in Silicon Valley where AI leaders have quietly acknowledged that China's aggressive push into autonomous systems could give it a first mover advantage in critical sectors. Like.

Break out the, I was gonna say break out the dom because I just wanna distract myself from this terrible article Yet madness raises profound ethical and regulatory questions What happens when an AI agent makes financial decisions that cost a company millions or when it executes a command incorrectly leading to real-world? Consequences who is responsible when an autonomous system trained to act without oversight makes the wrong call. Well, it's the person that initiated the an autonomous system trained to act without oversight makes the wrong call. Well, it's the person that initiated the system very clearly.

But I'm sure there'll be plenty of legal court cases around that. Chinese regulators historically are more willing to experiment with AI deployment, yet have yet to outline clear guardrails for AI autonomy. Meanwhile, Western regulators- They can do whatever you want. Just don't mention the Uyghurs.

Yep. It's pretty simple guardrails. Yeah. The era of autonomous AI agents has begun and China is leading the charge. The rest of us need to rethink what it means to work, create and compete in a world where intelligence is no longer a uniquely human asset.

Last line is... What you got? The last line's fair. I think that's that's the only yeah Lines there's all it's all junk. Anyway, yeah, there's another Guy Philip Schmid from the AI he's at Google Deep Mind. He's conflicted So he said hype first Reality, it's built on anthropic Claude sonnet not their own foundation model has

access to 29 tools and uses browser browser use which is browser control product. The user communicates with the executor agent and not the planner and other agent. Each user gets an isolated sandbox environment and it outperforms open AI deep research on the GAIA benchmark. And his take is building AI products doesn't require training your own foundation model.

We're probably just scratching the surface of what existing models can do with the right tooling and integration. And this was the big point. I think it was Sarah Guo who was saying this where like even if all The models just like ceased to get smarter and there's still so much low hanging fruit. Yeah, they're still Ashen Brenner like the unhobblings

Like yeah, you give it access to Python you give it access to the web browser and you give it access to databases And what it has that it's gonna perform so much better It is funny that I mean this whole narrative would be so much so much stronger if they were using deep seek Then it would really feel like oh wow like you know like like like the China yeah Yeah, like it might be two different Chinese companies, and they might be built on it might be a deep seek rapper But it's like there's something serious going on over there in China This is like kind of silly that they built it on on Claude, but I guess they got to go with the best I mean, it's kind of a bear signal for deep-seek too. Yeah, yeah odd

Yeah, anyway, should we pop this bottle of Dom Perignon? Let's do it if you if you're not following along we open a bottle of Dom Perignon every time we double the show You don't need to cut away from that. That was so loud. We open a bottle of Dom Perignon every time we double the show's audience and size. We've been on an absolute tear lately if you haven't been following. We crossed 16,000 followers. This was a while ago at this point. This was a while ago. There was a lot going on.

We were doing guests so we didn't have a lot of time to actually do a proper Dom episode. But those who have been with us from the start have seen Four or five at this many The next one the next one is gonna be at 32 K and we just made a new hire which we haven't formally announced yet But I think we're gonna hit that 32 K mark fairly quickly with where things are going. Thank you, sir And every time I open the Dom, it goes everywhere. That's part of life.

It is. It's part of champagne. It is. John, cheers to you. Cheers to the show. Cheers to Ben. It really is going fantastically. We like to say that exponential growth

is the most powerful force in the world. Cheers. And- Delicious. And also- Ben, do you want some? The only right answer thing you should stay locked in. Yeah. And the only alcohol you should drink is Dom Perignon. Correct. I stand by that. Yeah. Well, let's move on to another AI story. Sam Altman's other startup is building an app to compete with Elon Musk's acts. Talk about they are competing every possible realm now. This is Yeah. This is just

Yeah, yeah, the CEO of open AI imagines a future where you'll where you'll constantly demonstrate that you're not a robot. His everything app is the answer, but first he needs to look deep into your eyes. From Christopher Mims, an actually great journalist. Love Christopher Mims. Mim, Mim-o. Yeah, this is obviously built on top of WorldCoin,

the eyeball scanner, very controversial, but at the same time, there's a ton of bots. I don't know if you saw Nikita Beer talking about this over the weekend. Saying like, anytime you get get some weird reply just Google a person's name. So no not even weird just any reply Yeah, see if they're real person. Oh the the interesting Relevant example to this was there was a woman that just was hyping mannus just over and over and over super aggressively this woman named Jen Zhu and I that just was hyping Mannes just over and over and over super aggressively. This woman named Jen Zhu and I she says she's an investor.

She has a Ted talk. Yeah. Which which is real. Yep. But then you go to her fun. Sam Hyde also has a Ted talk. So that's true. It's not the bar anybody.

Anybody can have a Ted talk these days. Everybody gets a universal basic basic Forbes article. So anyways I look I look up her fun and on LinkedIn there's there's nobody that works for the fun not even her weird. So and it's an AI generated image. She's got a bunch of followers it's like very clearly you know if she's a real person Jen's you come on the show yeah you're welcome Would like to talk to you about manis is like there's clearly a real person behind the bots So like why don't they just use their own photo and damn like very odd anyway Let's read a little bit of this and give you some backstory on on what Sam's thinking with a social network that is

bot free. Mims writes, these ubiquitous orbs would allow us to do anything requiring identification online or in real life, from buying bread to paying taxes. Very interesting example there. It's a vision reminiscent to other efforts. It's like the most dystopian example. It's so dystopian.

You're gonna use your orb. You're gonna use your orb when you're in the bread line. When you're in the bread line. 100%. When you're paying Uncle Sam. Yeah, yeah, paying taxes. The future is just buying bread and paying taxes. It's not like, it could be so much more optimistic.

You could be sports betting. Oh yeah, you'll need this to log. You're gonna need this to go. It could easily be like, yeah, you need this to log into your flying car Like you know when when you get through customs on the moon like you could be so much more optimistic instead It's just buying bread and paying taxes. That's the future. What do they say death and taxes? Bread and taxes. That's the future. It's a vision. I'm gonna spread in circuses It's a vision reminiscent of other recent efforts including Amazon's attempt to replace credit cards with our palms and ant groups efforts in China to make it possible to pay with your face.

The big difference, the builders of an app called World, including chief executive Alex Blania and his co-founder Sam Altman of OpenAI fame, envision a time in the not too distant future when you can't do much without an ocular check-in. AI agents will be so prevalent and so human-like that we'll need to repeatedly prove we're human to prevent those AIs from masquerading as humans on everything from payment platforms to social networks. I think that there is something legitimate here. Rune had a good post about the variations in understanding how much AI is between you and the person that you're interacting with. it's like it's like because there will be your your interfacing with like a humanoid robot, but there's a there's a human Tele-operating it and you're hearing a real voice versus the opposite which is like you're talking to an actor But everything all the lines they're saying are chat. GPT generated or something

So there's like yeah all these weird edge case or the humanoid that you're talking to in English is an AI agent that is just generating. Totally. And I mean, clearly this is coming. Clearly there needs to be some sort of counterweight to this, whether it's regulatory or technology. And I like the idea of a tech-based solution here as opposed to something like, oh, we're scared of bots online, let's ban them, or let's make it illegal to use AI generated text. I mean, everybody that's traveled at all, it's now the facial recognition is technically not required, but it is so aggressively pushed that people don't realize

it's not required when you're in the TSA security. You can just say, I don't want to do a facial recognition scan today. And they go, OK. And they just look at your ID and you can go through. So it's still opt-in. But they've been sort of training the citizenry on this technology. And yeah. I always opt-in.

I want to prove my loyalty to America and Yeah. Yeah, and and the deep states specifically I want them to know I'm on their side your team These are my guys. Yeah, yeah John's guys. Yeah Agents will be so you travel in future member Yeah, to accelerate adoption in Hall of Fame to Let's just make sure we keep politics out of the deep state folks. Yeah To accelerate adoption of what the world calls its autonomous proof of human system the company Recently launched a mini app inside of its app which is available for iPhones and Android devices

World's mini app is part of a broader strategy to create an everything app these apps so-called super apps are common throughout Asia Everything app, these apps, so-called super apps, are common throughout Asia. World's mini app store, which currently includes services to send and receive cryptocurrency, chat with verified humans, and access microloans is a first step towards creating what Altman, Blania, and their team hope will be a vast ecosystem reaching more than a billion people.

As the company's identification system expands, they anticipate their main competitor will be Elon Musk's own attempt at an everything app X. I think it will take a while until we seriously collide. Blanier told me on Tuesday, given that X is now primarily a social network, the app formerly known as Twitter has yet to launch a payment service. So here's the crazy thing. And I do believe that Open AI will have significantly more monthly Actives than X by the end of the year. Yeah, which is a wild situation where so Elon is competing with open AI By you know forcing you to use grok in these various ways, which is smart. Yep, but then Sam Altman could

catalyze his own competitive product to X by funneling people from chat GPT into the world, everything app, whatever. It's an interesting dynamic. Yeah. So the orbs have not launched in the United States, but there are pictures of them all over in like foreign countries,

which is kind of an interesting strategy. I mean, most of the time, like you wanna launch in the US first and then kind of broaden out, but they're kind of doing the strategy. I mean, most of the time, like you want to launch in the US first and then kind of broaden out, but they're kind of doing the opposite. Within about 12 months, however, Blanio believes the two services will start to compete in earnest. If so, it would be notable development,

in part because making everything apps work in the West has proved extremely difficult. The bottom line is that for most people with an Android phone or iPhone who haven't grown up in the tech ecosystems of Asia, those app stores already offer the versatility and flexibility that everything apps do. Sam Altman's involvement in world might also encourage competition between world and X.

By virtue of their pugliistic nature. It's so hard to kickstart an everything app because imagine if you go and you get Uber, DoorDash, you build your own messaging, you need some sort of like WeChat, for example, has some core calling, browser, chat, et cetera. And if you go to an American user now and you say, hey, I'm gonna give you messaging, a browser, chat,

and I'm gonna give you like Uber and all these other, and games and all these things, they're gonna say, okay, I have all of. Yeah, potentially the only way to actually get somebody to switch over is like I'm gonna pay you to switch Like yeah other because like the value trade is kind of what's happening, right? Because if you get on world coin, they give you some world coin then they can move So it's all possible economics. Yeah. Yeah, so it's just Yeah, unless you're I mean Your user is like you could you could very easily imagine this working if Apple

somehow I don't know like acquired it or like built it in because when you think about like Like, you know, you need to be scanning all the time You need very deep access to the camera APIs to make sure that you're getting like real images instead of like images that have been passed through some sort of extra layer Or something all the different biometrics in the face in the face ID system, but I don't think like face ID We need to figure out if these are real images of JD Vans So Few people in the US have heard of World, formerly known as WorldCoin. If they have, it's probably on account of the company's unique biometric identification

system, the orb. So far, orbing millions of people hasn't proved popular with governments around the world, as more than a dozen have either suspended its operation in their countries or else examined its handling of personal data. World investor and venture capitalist Ben Horowitz said on a recent episode of his podcast with Mark Andreessen that the loosening restrictions on crypto companies in the US he anticipates world will become legal in the US this year. At present the company doesn't scan eyeballs in the US or allow Americans to hold its world coin token for fear of

regulators Altman has said. When asked how long it will be until world sets up locations in the US where people can walk in, present their irises and become part of the network, Blania declined to say, but he adds the effort is top of mind for him. In general, Blania brushes aside concerns about regulators both in the US and abroad. Okay, so this is a crazy statistic. World and its orb eyeball scanner

have verified 11 million people. They've scanned the irises of 11 million people. That is very impressive, just from a logistical standpoint to get that done. And I wish we had more footage on the ground of how this is happening, because I'm imagining they show up in a small town, and it's just one dude with an orb

and he's like, okay, come get your eye scan, we're gonna, you might get money in the future. It seems like probably the trade. Yeah, yeah, basically you get a token drop. Yeah. And maybe those tokens are liquid, you can sell them immediately. Yeah, but I don't think anybody's getting air dropped

the token yet. No, not if you scan. I thought that was one way to get access. I thought you could also just buy the token right now, but I don't think they're anybody's getting airdrop the token yet. No, not if you scan I thought that was one way to get access. I thought you could also just buy the token right now, but I don't know You can just buy it. Okay, it's at a seven and a half billion dollar valuation not bad fully diluted with a market cap of 800 million if you just look at the circulating so significantly lower than than Trump coin Well, I haven't looked at Trump coin. Is Trump coin gonna offer eyeball scanning?

Official Trump. They really should. Trump is down to a $2 billion mark. $2 billion? It's funny, so Trump coin is down less than the S&P. It's a better store of value. Better store of value. Than Apple, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon.

Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. I think it's doing better than Mag-7. Oh, this is fantastic. Other systems that rely on biometrics have unnerved users and governments in the past. It's easy to forget the hue and cry once raised about Face ID on the iPhone, the face scanning technology most people now use

to unlock their Apple devices. When it was introduced, there were concerns about it both as a potential security liability and because of the way it evoked mass surveillance systems in China that rely on facial recognition. World says its network is anonymous and secure and only proves you're a person, but it could be made part of a broader identity system. One of World's distinguishing features is that it is an anonymous proof of human system. That is, its eyeball scan can verify that you're a human being and not an AI,

but without additional software and systems, it can't identify who you are. What could drive people to adopt a system like that, world's will be the rise of ever more sophisticated AIs that will make doing business on the internet almost impossible. Interesting, yeah, I mean if the contents good Sign me up skin my eyeball. I want to I want to see good posts and if there's no bots and the posts better

I I'm a slop pig for the content. I'm willing to share my biometric data If it gets me, you know a couple funny bangers in the in the feed The real question is is will will the slop app be more? John, by the way, has already finished his first glass here. Cheers. Cheers. Yeah, I mean, the real question is revealed preferences. The stated preference is like, oh, I

don't want to interact with any bots online. But the revealed preference might be, oh, I love when 100 bots show up and like my post. So we'll see. We'll see which one people go with. There's been a few of these where- The challenge here is that they're mixing, they're trying to do multiple things at once.

Yeah. Right? They're trying to build this, in their words, autonomous proof of human system. Yep. Which to me says it's more like this developer product that other applications and services and things in the real world could leverage as a tool

to verify identity and prevent bots. Simultaneously they now have this token, which is its own product in itself, right? We've talked about this before. The sort of the product of the token is its price. And so the incentive is just to just sort of like drive up, drive up the price and do sort of, manipulate the market in that way.

And then now they're also saying we're gonna also do consumer apps and we're also gonna do an everything app. And it's starting to be like a lot of things have to go right, right? Sam Lesson talked about this last week, and I think this is a good framework, which is like if you're investing in something,

how many individual things need to go right? Yeah, what was this phrase? Like no bank shots or something like that? Yeah, and so here, some of these are experiments. And it's clear they have sort of like user traction on the supply side. They got eyeballs. Mary Meeker would be proud. but and it's clear they have sort of like user traction on the supply side. They got eyeballs, right?

But. They got eyeballs. Mary Meeker would be proud. Mary Meeker would be very proud. 11 million eyeballs during the dot com. That's 10 billion in market cap for sure. Easily. She'll take that public all day. And so they got a lot of things seemingly,

they're trying to do a lot at once. And it seems unclear that any of these things are, again, what users want. I mean, Mims is, you were impressed by 11 million. Mims here says, world has only or verified 11 million people worldwide, despite the fact that it literally pays them. Okay, so they are paying them in real time.

25 tokens per scan, roughly $25 at today's prices, now offers 16 tokens per scan. At the launch date for X's money account service is unclear. The company has said that it will count Visa as its first partner for X. X did not respond to a request for comment. And so yeah, I mean, I wonder if they can keep the token price high enough, keep raising money.

He says here, X has vastly more users than World does, but it's unclear how many people will be eager to entrust an Elon Musk-owned company with their financial lives. I mean, they trust him to drive them around. So anyways, that seems like a stretch, but overall, X has more users than World. But I believe by the end of the year,

OpenAI will have more users than X. Yeah. And so are you proposing some sort of theory of Elon companies? And we should be thinking about the same companies as one to Retsu? I'm more saying you can imagine a collaboration between OpenAI and World where they drive WorldCoin usage through the OpenAI app.

In the same way that X is partnered with XAI and they're two separate companies, but they're obviously deeply integrated. You can see the same thing happening with WorldCoin and the ChatGPT app. Yeah. That'd be pretty crazy, but I think that makes sense. Yeah, you could imagine, so here's something

I thought about before. So a lot of people have said, give me the best OpenAI models, unlimited access. One of the challenges there is that you could sort of do that, but then people would build software on top of them where they would just be like querying it and using it for other apps. And so Sam could come out and say,

okay, you can use unlimited open AI as long as you are periodically doing this sort of eyeball recognition through the orb or something to that effect. So it's like you're actually using the product. You're not just software, a bot that's just sort of using up inference on behalf of other applications. I want to see the pen testers and the hackers

try and beat this thing. I wanna see George Hott's jailbreak an orb. Because when Face ID came out, people were like, well if I 3D print my face and then I put it up and I have this mask, I can still get through. And it's not that big of a deal. People were trying to break it. But obviously it is a huge vulnerability

if it's like the FBI sees the phone and they're not supposed to be able to get in, but then they can just 3D print a picture of your face and then hold it up and it verifies. Yeah, it seems like Apple's gotten pretty good at that. Yeah, it does seem like it's... You don't hear about, oh, the FBI hacked this person's phone by holding it up. Holding it up. Was there some story about that where they hold it up to someone's face while they're sleeping or something?

I feel like that's happened. The safety mechanism is that your eyes have to be open. Oh, for face ID? I think so. Okay. Let me confirm. Yeah. Well, it'll be a knockout drag out fight.

I'm sure it continues. I'm sure there'll be more entertainment. Never a dull moment when Sam Altman and Elon Musk are I would like to have I would like to get I'd like to have the WorldCoin CEO on the show. Yeah, I'd love to just have him give the full pitch because it's clearly compelling. Yeah, at a high level. Feel weird, but it also feels like something that like, we could look back on and been like, yeah, that was like, it's Feel weird, but it also feels like something that like we could look back on and been like yeah

That was like it was a novel enough idea that it broke out Because because it's weird and different and so I've been yeah, and if I ever if I'm traveling in any exotic lands Maybe I'll stand 25 bucks is 25 bucks is 25 bucks. That's that's a That's a shish kebab somewhere, you know, erwan It's an everyone burrito burrito. Yeah. Yeah with with almost you almost get it delivered off not overseas almost not overseas almost Okay. Well, should we move on to Palmer Lucky in the Wall Street Journal? Yeah, who is this guy again?

Palmer Lucky or Tim Higgins the guy who wrote the Higgins, Tim Higgins. No, I'm just home or lucky. They're calling him Donald Trump's original tech, bro He gets his moment in a matter of color in the title. Yeah technology brother Please original technology brother once an outcast the and Earl founders vision for modernizing the government seems possible okay opening line of this article generally tech bros tend to overestimate their ability to change the world it's that I was talking about this we're gonna have salon on the show and talk about like bro thing yeah something because we love the journal. Yeah. It's overall fantastic.

Yeah. But to take such a clear and aggressive shot against our culture in the opening line of it. Exactly. You know, what I'm sure got to mention on the front page. Yeah. I mean, I think we've kind of like retooled and reclaimed this term enough,

but it's just very silly because it's such a meaningless term that it really just meant like anyone who's a male in tech was a bro. Also, if you think about anybody who ever invented anything, a lot of them could be described as like, oh, he was a guy that was into technology. And yeah, there's many more people that sort of overestimated their abilities

and came up short and didn't invent this important thing. But we need 100 people to try and only one to be successful in order to sort of move the world forward. Yeah, like when this came out, I thought the bar for bro should be way, way higher. Like what do you mean? What I mean is that like like so there's there's everyone in tech And then there's everyone in tech who's male

But though not everyone in tech who's a male is a tech bro in order to be a tech bro You have to be actively running a technology company. That's like building software or hardware, but then also Doing keg stands chugging Miller Lite, like crushing nooners, lots of tattoos, lots of days on the lake, like lots of tank tops, lots of pushups, like you have to be jacked. Yeah, like Alexis joined with a tank top. You could kind of say he's a tech bro. And he lives in South Florida.

Yep, yep, yeah. I would forgive the journal for calling him a tech bro. But as a term of endearment. This picture is he's wearing a Hawaiian shirt. He looks like he's potentially the social chair at the top for term B at his college. I think it's really just like up to Palmer. If he wants to be a tech bro and use that, that's fine. But for many years it was used as pejorative. It was used as a slur.

It was used to discredit someone. And the reason was because the idea of doing science and doing engineering was antithetical to crushing beers with your absolute boys in the frat house. And so by saying, oh, this person's a bro, it meant that they can't be a serious technologist when that was clearly proven false. Yeah, by Zock the Winklevoss. Yeah, all these different running a top crypto. Yes, yes. Yes. So he goes on to write Palmer's support of Donald Trump in 2016 got him according to his recounting booted from liberal Silicon Valley, pushed out of

his job at Facebook and made into a pariah. All that despite the fact that he had sold his virtual reality company Oculus VR to Mark Zuckerberg's social media company for billions and was seen as the OG of VR. I kind of like this writing actually, it's pretty good. Dejected he went on to build the next thing, Killer AI. It's a hell of an origin story for and oral industries whose initials spell AI Lucky named the company after the hero sword in the Lord of the Rings a weapon also known as the flame of the West in many Ways lucky wants his weapons company. That's just what it's just One of the best. Yeah names and stories behind the name. Yep in Silicon Valley history

It's great flame of, the flame of the West. Flame of the West. Incredible. In doing so, Lucky has become one of the brightest examples of a new wave of ascendant entrepreneurs. They eschew what has made Silicon Valley so powerful, personal gadgets and ad tech, and pour themselves into super hard

and sometimes controversial sciences and engineering, as they say, and they say can make America better. Supersonic airplanes, nuclear energy, space travel. These days, Lucky likes to tell his origin story. Because those examples shouldn't really be, like why are they controversial? We should have controversial airplanes that can go supersonic. I mean, I guess nuclear is a little controversial,

but space travel isn't controversial, is it? I guess it is. There's people that say we shouldn't go to space. Because of the firmament stuff? No, no, no, we have problems on because they're challenging God Fronted God to try and know God's greeners They say why are you spending all this money blowing up your rockets in space sure enough problems on earth Sure all those yeah hundreds of millions of dollars also very controversial of your flat earther This is travel stuff. So they might be talking about that.

They might be highlighting the fact that Flat Earthers don't like tech people. Oh, we're gonna go to space. And they're like. Doing it over and over. Yeah, making movies about it. Exactly, exactly. These days, Lucky likes to tell his origin story,

especially when it became cool for Zuckerberg and other tech leaders to be seen as cozying up to President Trump. Zuckerberg told Congress that Lucky's Facebook departure had nothing to do with politics. Speaking of Zuckerberg cozying up to the American right wing, he was at the UFC Saturday night and the stream was really not

functioning well. Really? Like the pay-per-view. So Dana White was streaming from his phone. Really? And you could hear, he was just, yeah, it was round one. So Dana White was streaming from his phone. Really? And you could hear, he was just, yeah, it was round one. He just had it playing. And you could hear Zuckerberg talking, being like,

oh, where are you streaming from right now? What account are you streaming from? I think he wanted to go look and like test, like see the quality. So even during the UFC event, he was founder mode. He wanted to make sure it was during the main event. That's great. It's cool. I love that that all these people have tidied up all of their inconvenient beliefs lucky says which I love

I'm not going to throw it back in their faces and say oh, yeah, but what about this thing that you did eight years ago? It's just not productive. Yeah, he said for one one man. That's a little bit different. That's not really an inconvenient belief That's like a personal interaction But yeah, we don't talk about politics on this show. Better position now. Lucky is clearly trying to take advantage of the moment that Trump's ascent has created, especially with the Elon Musk led government efficiency effort. And Earl and other high tech companies are trying to convince the Pentagon that their technologies are part of the solution for a more efficient and modern government than what's offered

by the lumbering giants in defense. The core thesis of Anderil is that we are not a defense contractor, Lucky said. We are a defense product company. We put our own money into building things and we show up not with a PowerPoint, but with a working product and so the taxpayer isn't taking on the development risk for these products.

It's great. The flipped model. Which venture capitalists are. Makes a lot of sense. Exactly. We're grateful for them. Yep. Lucky was dismissed by TechPiers as crude and out of touch.

Even now, some in Washington remain unimpressed, but for different reasons. What does this guy know about virtual reality? What does this guy known for virtual reality know about the battlefield arrival last year called Anderl the Theranos of defense? I think I know who they're talking about and it's like not a rival at all. It's not like another entrepreneur or business person. It's like a random poster.

Yeah. It's like, it's not like. An online rival. Exactly, yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, but giving them too much credit to say they're a rival. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Also Theranos, yeah, you could give it blood, but giving them too much credit to say their arrival. Yeah also Theranos Yeah, you could give it blood but it would just sort of not, you know, it couldn't really do much with it

Yeah, they've shown that they can actually create products that do you know, they can blow up a truck Yeah, which by nature means that Theranos is not the right comparison at all. It's very silly Lucky responded on the social media platform X with a photo of his own head superimposed on Elizabeth Holmes' body, a former journalist major, before dropping out to work on Oculus in a camper parked in his parents' home. Lucky understands the power of narrative.

Even his name sounds like something out of an Elmore Leonard novel, like he should be a loan shark busting heads in Miami rather than an arms dealer holding court in Mar-a-Lago He's known for his Hawaiian t-shirts flip flops and goatee and a willingness to talk about whatever's on his mind Conspiracy theories video games management theories, etc The first time I met lucky a few years ago. He talked to me with an incredible enthusiasm It's also so I mean this article is funny because it's making him sound really cool, but at the same time, clearly has a negative bend to it. Calling him an arms dealer versus a

technologist focused on defense. Exactly, exactly. Comparing him to a loan shark busting heads because his name, based on his name. Yeah, I don't get that. This person clearly hasn't studied nominative determinism because there's nothing in Palmer Freeman Lucky that says loan shark to me. Yeah. Anyway, the first time this writer met Palmer Lucky a few years ago, he talked to me with an incredible enthusiasm about an idea for why people should raise hippos

in the swamplands of Louisiana for food. It was something he read about from the 1950s. He said, I've read this book, The American Hippopotamus. It's a fantastic plan. It actually got all the way to Congress. There was a bill proposed to bring hippos to Louisiana, raise them for food. And Palmer's here arguing, kind of the same thesis.

It was better for land management than grazing cattle on prime real estate elsewhere Like you're not gonna build a bunch of housing on the bayou. So put the hippos there They're a little dangerous, but you can like, you know fence them in and then it's fine And he says lucky assured me that hippo meat was tasty. It's red meat though after some prodding he admitted that he had never tried it Yeah, because it's hard to get a hand on and roll was originally backed by Peter Teals founders fund and co-founded with Palantir technology alums, Democrats. We should give some background on, on founders fund for anybody that,

Oh yeah, for sure. He joined a second ago. Yeah. Yeah. Anyone who's living under a rock. Uh, it started out as building sensor towers during the first Trump administration to spot people crossing the border illegally The company evolved to produce robot drones and then robot submarines called go sharks The gist is to keep US soldiers out of harm's way if they all operate with AI Running on a central operating system and roll developed to run across its hardware. That's called lattice Which we've talked about before this show actually runs on lattice

before. This show actually runs on lattice. Just the most coddled text. That should be our new nickname for Ben. Hey, Lattice. Yeah, Jarvis. Pull up this post right now. The entrepreneur has proven AI has a place in war and the Ukraine, Russia, and Israel Hamas war show that futuristic ideas are becoming commonplace, changing the face of war and how it will be fought in the years ahead. In January, Anderl announced plans to invest almost a billion dollars into a factory in Ohio to build autonomous jet fighters in the US for the Air Force, a contract it won last year. And in February, Anderl said it was taking over Microsoft's $22 billion contract with the US Army to develop augmented reality headsets for the battlefield, a project that marries

Lucky's past and present. And I love that, a lot of people are like, what's gonna happen there? It's like, he is the perfect person for this. He's like the most qualified person in the world to do VR for the military. This is his line. So he made this announcement, he says,

whatever you are imagining, however crazy you imagine I am, multiply it by 10 and then do it again. Lucky wrote, I am back and I'm only getting started. It is over. We're so back. It's great. I love it. Yeah. It's a lot of fun. Anyway. Yeah. It's so funny when people come from Palmer is like, Oh, he, he's unqualified for this. It's like, he's, I think he's now like in his thirties he spent his entire career in like the most powerful rooms in America in like high growth companies doing real work in every industry

Also every player like consensus view of the future of warfare is sort of if swarms of Autonomous often small. Yeah hardware devices Yeah often small hardware devices. So maybe you want the guy who built this super complicated VR product and scaled it to millions of sales. Maybe that would be a good guy to... He's like one of the only hardware founders to be successful out of that 2010s batch.

There were a few others that did okay. Smartwatches watches scales and stuff but like yeah obviously oculus fantastic so we'll have to have them on the show dig in more a little bit of a little bit of a puff piece a little bit of a just just like you know little tour of I mean who Palmer is we wouldn't call it a puff piece it's a very negative it's some negativity some positivity but you know didn't go too deep we didn't have to put it too hard in the truth. So no no no it was a mild mild truth zone anyway I'm gonna use the restroom. Yeah

Yeah, yeah, we're moving over to deep seek. This is an interesting story so obviously deep seek blew up and did have an impact on the timeline a lot of people were following it and Now investors want a piece of DeepSeek, but the founder of DeepSeek says not now. This is from the Wall Street Journal, March 10th. The founder of Chinese artificial intelligence star, DeepSeek, which of course spun out of that hedge fund we talked about, has rejected proposals to make quick money from his programs, telling prospective investors that he wants to keep the science project ethos that brought

him to global renown. Overwhelmed by millions of users, DeepSeek's chatbot has frequent service hiccups and authorities around the world are restricting its use over data security concerns. The US is weighing measures including banning DeepSeek from government devices, which of course makes sense because if you're using DeepSeek as an open source LLM that you're self-hosting, you're not sending data there. There's still the question of is there some sort of Manchurian candidate deep inside the weights,

but that's kind of science fiction right now. But if you're using the DeepSeek app, literally every query, everything that you put into that chat box is going to DeepSeek, which of course is a Chinese company and ultimately responsible to the CCP potentially. And so he is also cautious about government linked investors, they said, because he believes the connection

to Beijing could make it harder to win global adoption of DeepSeek's AI models. Liang Wenfang has told associates that he isn't in a hurry to get investment. The Chinese company made a global splash earlier this year with its free to use open source AI models. It was the moment DeepSeek had aimed for since Liang's band of AI researchers

began their quest two years ago with words they attributed to French director Francois Truffaut, be insanely ambitious and insanely sincere. Interesting. Is parroting the French. and and insanely sincere interesting is Everything so I'm just pulling this up. Yeah, it was my first thought was Deep see cuz number 20 in productivity right now. Yeah grok is 31 31 so Jimmy John's I don't believe is in the productivity category

Jimmy John's, I don't believe is in the productivity category. Jimmy John's apps. If you weren't following the app store last week, the top three apps were ChatGPT, Jimmy John's, and Halo. Yeah. A prayer app. Big week. So you really get to choose your god. You get to choose your AI god, your Christian god,

or your sandwich god. So Jimmy John's has taken an absolute tumble. They're 46 in food and drinks and nowhere near. That's terrible. Not even in the game anymore. They're gonna have to come out with a new sandwich. Yeah, get some refer a friend going on there. Or they could say, hey, if you can prove you're human,

you can get a $25 gift card to Jimmy John's. Jimmy John's should do what Nikita does, where you go to, you go to get your sandwich, you check out, and then afterwards it says like, hey, do you wanna know what the sandwich artist that made your sandwich thinks about you? And then you click $5 and it unlocks,

it's like, yeah, they thought you were kinda rude. They thought you were kinda rude. Oh, they actually thought you were really nice and you tipped really well. They thought you were dripped out. They thought you were dripped out, exactly. Yeah, pay to thought you're really nice and you tipped really well thought you were dripped out. They thought you're dripped out exactly Yeah, yeah pay to unlock a compliment secure the male loneliness this this might actually be a good idea I I think we gotta get Nikita on the line and and pitch it to him and then pitch it to Jimmy John himself

Jimmy also should come on the show Leong was invited to a who's who list of Chinese executives who met leader Xi Jinping on February 17th and his success has prompted a gushing of patriotism in China. This is something we should copy. I feel like if you invent a viral app or a cool foundation model,

let's get you in the White House, shake the president's hand, whole tour. You know, a photo op. Yeah, they do the same if you are an athlete and you do something remotely cool. Yeah, yeah, they always invite the winning Super Bowl team, Presidential Medal of Freedom, you know. If you build a Chachi PT rapper,

that just goes crazy. Yeah, we need the Medal of Innovation. Yes, exactly, exactly. And the Medal of Slop. Yeah, yeah, yeah, the Worker 17 guys from YC, get him in the White House, shaking hands. How you doing with that Dom Perignon over there? Why don't you polish that off? I'll refill The state-owned Bank of China has offered that was that was just John not wanting to

Double down had one the state-owned Bank of China has offered to grant a low interest loan to the company people familiar with discussions said in interest in recent weeks, executives from Chinese technology companies including Tencent and Alibaba have met Liang to discuss potential cooperation. I'm sure they want a stake at this company. Said people familiar with the companies. Those people said Liang didn't want to charge for DeepSeek's core AI models which are currently free.

If your model's so good, why don't you, why are you afraid to charge money for it? Start up published techniques. It's used to train its AI models using downgraded chip and video design for China It aims to release its next legend Designed for solving complex problems as early as April so to stay tuned for deep seek v4 Probably we'll see if that's a bigger model. Be interesting to follow. Rise of the High Flyer, Liang born in 1985. We already did a deep dive on this guy. You can go find it on the channel. But founded a hedge fund known

in English as High Flyer in 2015. Its Chinese name alludes to an ancient Han dynasty diagram with a magic square, a mathematical peculiarity in which the rows, columns, and diagonals of the square all add up to the same number going Sudoku mode. Sudoku vibes. I like it. Liang was proud that Chinese sages discovered the concept long before the West said people who know him. In its hiring advertisements, High Flyer sounded more like a technology firm than a hedge fund. This is pretty common with what's going on with Jane Street and Citadel. It even tried to put the word technologies in its name before regulators said no. I mean, that's cool.

It looked for people who had won math contests. We've seen this happen in America before with the IMO gold medalists all going to work for ramp. The fund promised as much as $270,000 a year for AI engineers at a campus event in 2020. To support their AI ambitions, Liang and his team used the profits from the hedge fund, which charged the same type of hefty fees as US hedge funds do, so probably $2.20 or more. Liang's quant fund significantly outperformed the market between 2015 and 2020, sometimes scoring returns that were 20 to 50 percentage

points more than stock market benchmarks. In 2021, High Flyer had 14 billion. Is that your quant? You're doing pretty well. Yeah, had 14 billion. You want to keep reading? I'll keep reading. Where do you end off?

In 2021, High Flyer's assets under management. In 2021, High Flyer Technologies assets under management reached around 14 billion, according to people familiar with the matter. But the fund's performance soon faded. By late 2021, when dozens of High Flyer's products were down by more than 10% from their recent peak, the company apologized to its investors for its performance.

One of its flagship funds lost money in both 2022 and 2023, although it beat the benchmark index it was supposed to track. Two years ago, High Flyer largely closed itself to new investors and started in mid 2024 to encourage some investors to redeem their investments. They're like, we have such a good short position that we're building. We would like you to just sort of take out your money and just let us just like reap the by the end of last year. Like but it's such a lot of hedge funds have done this. No, no, I know.

Jane Street doesn't have any outside capital, I believe. And a lot of other funds have kind of moved towards less and less LPs if they can. By the end of last year, high flyers assets under management had shrunk significantly. To me, this looks like one reason is that you just don't want sort of outsized Outside scrutiny into what you're doing. Yeah. Yeah saying I don't want leaks Newcomers gonna get your returns as soon as you get an LP who has a subscription Yeah, and you can't have that happening And and also just regulation because there's just more people that can sue you for saying yeah

Hey, you know what you did was was not meeting your fiduciary responsibilities. And then of course, once you have so many investors, of course you might need to go public or something. There's a lot of differences. So in mid 2023, the fund announced a strategic shift and created DeepSeek as an independent organization. High Flyer put almost all its revenue from the Quant Fund business into AI development,

according to the company's posts on Chinese social media. High Flyer said it would devote itself fully to AI technology that serves the common good of all man mankind. Sounds like it was written by the CCP. Deep six AI models are generally free although it does offer. So, yeah. They just care about the good of humanity. Purely. Purely. Purely.

Its problem is handling the traffic surge. So they're struggling to handle the traffic, but they don't want investment. They'll just take the ultra low interest rate loan from the bank of China. Not conflicted at all. They're just in it for humanity, Okay. Like it's just about humanity. They want to keep the models free. Just free. Just working with the government. We're going

to lever up from we're going to take low interest rates from from the bank of the CCP. Yep. Remember season paying. That's it. Yeah. Yeah, yeah. To lessen the overload on its servers, DeepSeek has been offering deep discounts to paying customers who use its services in the early morning. So you can get Tmoo DeepSeek credits if you're using it in the right hours. So some Chinese tech giants, such as Tencent, are testing DeepSeek to power features, including a search

engine of Tencent's messaging and payment app. They don't have to pay DeepSeek to do so. Tencent users can opt for a chat bot that is powered by deep seek, deep seek, but uses Tencent's own more stable computer network. Yeah. So since late 2023, deep seek pitched itself to several venture capital firms, including some foreign firms. This is a great strategy, by the way.

Say you're not raising, say you don't want money, but then go raise. It creates this dynamic that can really get people to phone them in. Apparently the foreign firms declined to invest because they couldn't see a clear path to recouping their money. It's never stopped a Western capital allocator from investing before.

To be clear, opening eyes like, didn't they come out with some like prospectus that was like at a certain point when you're raising, you know, tens of billions of dollars, you basically have to tell people like, we see no path to, we see no realistic path to like recouping this investment. Oh, just like safe harbor stuff?

Yeah, safe harbor stuff. Yeah, yeah, yeah, maybe, maybe. I mean, I think the projections are pretty aggressive, but yeah. Yeah, yeah. No, it's we're going to lose money, and then we will be the only profit center in the entire world. Basically.

Good strategy. Yeah, so anyways, he says, for now, yeah, yeah, that's it. He says, for now, Leong appears to be sticking to the vision he expressed in a rare interview in 2023. We don't do applications. Anyways, he says for now, yeah, yeah, that's it. He says, for now, Leong appears to be sticking to the vision he expressed in a rare interview in 2023. We don't do applications, we just do research and exploration, he said then. Yeah, I mean, I think the real way to kind of understand

what's actually going on with DeepSeek is that you have to benchmark its app store performance as you just did there at 47, 42, something like that. No, 21. 21. You have to benchmark that against what happened with tick tock. I'm sure tech talk was number one in the app store for a little bit and then dropped out. And then, but the question is like, will it regain momentum and will it continue to become dominant and will there

be some sort of economy or, or durable growth engine? Like we saw with Tik Tok, there were, there were a series of strategy growth strategies that really drove it into the significant penetration of the Western market. And that was first and foremost, um, you know, a unique feature. You could not make a lip sync video with, with a like IP protected music very easily on Instagram or Snapchat. And so you would download just like you downloaded Instagram to do photo filters

and then it happened. Every photo that you filtered, it would happen to post and then you would share that photo elsewhere. Maybe you'd say camera roll and share it elsewhere. Maybe upload it on Facebook, but it was shared to the social network. Same thing happened with TikTok. Then it became, okay, well, now they're advertising on Facebook and Snapchat, very aggressively bringing in new users. And then finally they created the creator fund.

And so all of a sudden the power law creators on TikTok had jobs, had like businesses. And so you had people like Charlie D'Amelio and there were a whole ton of these creators that would get a slice based on how much traffic and how many views they were getting. They were getting tons of views. They weren't getting paid a ton,

but they were making enough to justify quitting their jobs and going all in on content and making sure that, and then also just creating the dream of this new American dream of like, if you have an idea or you're going to dancing or you're hot or you have anything going on, you can get on TikTok. If you go viral enough times, you will start getting checks.

Or you're a corporate athlete. You remember that guy? Yes, yes, yes. This is one of the first probably creators that we sort of like- Really resonated with. We thought it was more funny than I think anyone else did. I know, I know.

What's the guy's name? I have no idea. I never remember the name of a short form creator ever. Yeah, it's just weird. Podcasters, if I listen to them, I just don't remember their name. You remember their bit. Yep, totally.

It's this guy who would wake up and he'd be running and he'd be like, it's another day today. No, I know exactly who you're talking about. I don't remember his name because it was just so ethereal. It's very much like, TikTok and the short form stuff is very much like bathroom graffiti

It's like everyone sees it. No one remembers. Yeah, just like high high traffic But it doesn't like make a statement as opposed to you know a two-hour Christopher Nolan film like leaves an impression on people Even if less now see it. It has like a profound effect or a really good Experts the same high Ted talk is very memorable A really good Ted Talk. We talked to the experts. The Sam Hyde Ted Talk is very memorable. It's one of the greatest comedy bits of all time. It's very, very funny. Anyway, should we do car technology, driving people crazy?

Should we move on to the timeline? What do you think, Jordy? I'm down to hit this, and then let's get into the timeline. Okay, yeah. So you know we're car people here. We like talking cars. We like talking trends in cars We're big advocates for the next Tesla Roadster having a naturally aspirated v8 with a gated manual shifter We're we're willing it we're gonna make it happen We're gonna have Elon on the show eventually and we're gonna confront him about that recommend it to him

And I think we have a winner on our hands if you can get that across the way Do we do a lot of talk about Oh Tesla's down 36% the last month. How do you get back? Gated manual. B12. Exactly. Anyway, door handles used to be simple. Now they are another piece of technology that can fail.

Drivers are finding that they wish the smart technology in their cars was just a bit dumber. Automakers have added new features in 2020s that go beyond touchscreens, assisted driving systems and companion phone apps. Some vehicles come with infrared night visions and seasonal ambient light lighting and interior fan cams that show rear passengers. That's obviously for kids, but many drivers say it's too much. The share that had positive feelings about intuitiveness of their car controls fell from 79 percent in 2015 to 56% in 2024.

The perfect car. The perfect car was the Porsche 911, the 997 generation manual. Sit inside, it's relatively high performance vehicle. It's not a track star or anything like that, but it's sporty, it's fun. There's nothing over the top or anything like that You know, everything is just like ultra utilitarian. Everything's super solid. You can leave it in the Sun forever

Nothing's gonna happen to the seats. It's a perfect car and today you have a situation where I Actually have a funny story about that I Bought the car on Bring a Trailer in 2021, sold it at a profit a couple of years later, but took ETH for it. Really? I had a buddy who was like, can I buy it with ETH?

I was like, yeah, sure, fine. ETH dropped like 20%. So I basically round-tri trip back to the original purchase price. But to compare that to today, one of the most annoying, the most annoying thing about my cars are the smart features. So the G63, there's this feature where when I turn it on, it automatically has the lane keeping assist, they call it, which you have to manually turn off every single time,

which is like a small. That's so weird. Normally you have to turn it on. No, it's default on. And it is a truly terrible feature. You're driving, and I drive. I'm in Malibu. So to get out of Malibu, I have to take these sort of like one

or two lane, canyon know, canyon roads. And so if you go slightly off of the road, it breaks like one of the wheel, like it's this very weird experience where it just sort of like has this braking effect that just slams you back onto the road. And it's the most jarring experience. It's never when you actually would want it. And then the other thing is you have to turn on that you have to turn off the thing that shuts the engine off when you're at a stoplight. And that's like, you know, this is like the EPA rules where new cars have to have this feature. Also, if you put your car in sport mode, you now the EPA requires that when you start the car, it starts in eco mode or like comfort mode. I can't start in the most, yeah, you used to be able

to start a nine 11 in sport mode and just leave it at I can't start in the most aggressive mode. Yeah, you used to be able to start a 911 in sport mode. In sport mode and just leave it at that dial. We used to be a proper country. We used to be a proper country. I think the real sad thing here is that, a lot of the premium features have trickled down. You get heated and cooled seats in a Hyundai these days, but some of the really important features

have not trickled down. I'm talking about- Doors that, doors that go doors that go up. That should be standard standard. Also the champagne fridge in the back of the Rolls Royce with, with the champagne flute thing that grabs them. So that, so that as you're going around a corner, your champagne flute doesn't fall over. Yeah. And the features that balance it on the turn. And for some reason it hasn't made it. But yeah.

Just totally ignoring customer demands. I agree. Yeah, I agree. Anyway, people are having problems with battery electric vehicles. Owners of EVs reported their door handles being difficult to open at a rate of 3.1 problems per 100 vehicles. It's like your door should always open, unless you have a G-Wagon. Well then it's hard to close, right? It's not hard to open.

Yeah. That's the real tell. The real tell is if anybody has spent time in LA, is if they know how to close a G-Wagon door. Close a G-Wagon door. For those who haven't done it, you have to really slam it. You have to really slam it.

Guys out there, if she knows how to close a G wagon door just focus on yourself We've changed door handles from being a problem-free experience to now they pop out whenever the owner approaches and we're seeing all these problems Yeah, all all good. Yeah, this is super annoying. I walk out of my garage. Yeah, and my I walk out of my garage. Yeah. And my 9-Eleven just completely turns on. It throws the lights on. It throws the handle open. I'm like, I'm just grabbing the mail. Yeah.

Relax. It just knows you're there. Yeah. Yeah. Anyway. This is the same thing with smart homes today where I have yesterday, You know, this is the same thing with smart homes today, where I have yesterday, I hit the remote for my blinds

in my kitchen, and it didn't move. I'm like, oh, great. I'm pressing it again. I'm playing around with the remote. I finally walked close to it, and it worked. But I was like, I was just not. My blinds were just going to be down until I could find somebody that specializes in smart homes to just come over and figure out

what's broken. And I'm like, that's so annoying versus just like going. I think I'm very bullish on the sort of analog home experience of like, you flip a switch. You have something that doesn't need batteries that you can change the heater. I don't need a remote for my fireplace. It's not like I'm not in my bedroom being like,

I really wanna like turn on my fireplace. Like there's something beautiful about analog products. This is somewhat of a boomer take, but I think that there is something real about like technology introducing more friction over time. And it's been captured in some sci-fi. Like I don't know if you've seen, or you probably haven't seen fifth element or demolition man, but they both paint a picture

of the future where basically like all the smart features are like very inconvenient. And so, so that's just alone is like in demolition man getting like find every time he swears and there's like, he can't get like, we should have that. Yeah. We should actually be bullish on that. Um, and then it would get boring quickly. And then fifth element he lives in this like pod and it like deploys like, like you have been, you have three points. Like it's like a super connected world and like, uh, he's like trying to quit smoking and the gives him like one cigarette out of

this like disposer and stuff. Uh, it's very funny. Anyway, great movies. You should see a film sometime. Jordy, I'll watch one. You should watch a movie. I have been enjoying the new White Lotus. Oh yeah, I'm caught up. Very cliche to watch, but it's just watching. Everybody was like, okay, the first few episodes were boring. Yeah. And then last night's really got deranged. It, you know, the dad is developing the sort of like drug addiction. And the mom is also, you know, it's just all like you can tell it's just like starting to fully and. Yeah, I find that like somebody was asking me like, oh, like, was it good episode?

And I was kind of like just starting in the middle. You're saying like you're no, no, no, no, no, no. Like, yeah, the really deranged way to watch white. Watch random episodes. No, no, like because no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, all of them like does it but does anything happen because people are saying like it's a little slow and I was like it kind of happens at the same rate in every episode but more importantly it's just such a lovely place to like hang out it's like beautiful it's chaotic there's like all these little vignettes like I don't need there to be like some really major plot point like that was why success that's why succession was such a hit. It was allowing people to be immersed in your everyday lifestyle.

Exactly, exactly. Yeah, anyways, let's get it. White Lotus is basically about the Iman, right? Yeah. It's like the base. The Iman hasn't actually, yeah, they haven't actually done it at an Iman yet. Yeah, they've done it at Four Seasons, I think.

It's that level of. But that's the vibe, and so it's a very funny like way to poke fun the the guy Who wrote white lotus actually went to my high school Mike white very cool. Yeah, we should have him on talk about that Be cool business of white lotus. Did you guys overlap? No He's like 50 now, okay, this guy's like a Hollywood legend like he's not yeah. Yeah young. Okay And you think I'm old, but I'm not that old. I mean, he directed School of Rock, which I'm sure you haven't seen, but came out

in like mid 2000s. You know, I've seen School of Rock. That's a, that's a, that's a, that's a class. Yeah. The, the teacher in there based on my Latin teacher. Actually. So really? Yeah. That's cool. Mugusier Wilcom, legend. I would go to rock band camp every summer. And it was basically that. What did you play? I would guitar and I would sing. Oh, really? Yeah.

That's cool. Can you blast a lick on the guitar if you had an electric guitar here? Yes, yes. Because we've been talking about soundboard. Maybe we just get you a guitar. And whenever we want a sound effect, just in the right moment.

I could actually have it just strapped up here and just be yeah, just like when a founder comes on and they're they were interviewing them and you just want to play the you know, I have the size gong. I play the gong on the show. You play the guitar. I had one one moment that I'll always remember we do this rock band camp. Yeah, there's all this prep and then at the end of the summer you play this like live performance for all of your

extended, you know, all the other kids in camp and all this stuff with your band of five people and our lead singer. I was a backup singer. Our lead singer didn't show up for the performance. I got cold feet. It was a big group and I had to like go founder mode for the band. I had to sing it, but it was like, it was like a foreign person singing like Western karaoke. It's like the right sounds, but like, I just like didn't I didn't you know, I was like five minutes beforehand I've been playing a lot of I've been playing a lot of Like dinosaur themed rendition cool like picture like John Mayer meets dinosaurs playing it for my son of like picture like John Mayer meets dinosaurs playing it for my son.

Yeah, that's great. They've been hit. Do you know enough like power chords just to like jam and it sounds like vaguely like Blink-182 or something like that? Yeah, yeah. You know how you know like the basic and then you just work it together.

That's great. Like the Suzuki method more or less. Yeah. Yeah, I play piano, but I only learned like how to play like the sheet music. So I need to see the exact notes. You got two into the symphony. So for you, it was more euphoric to just be immersed in it. Exactly. Even play the notes yourself. Exactly. You could have been a

conductor. I mean, great. I mean, I named my dog after a conductor Gustavo Dudamel. Really? Yeah, that's great. His Instagram handle is real Gustavo Dudamel. It's great. Yeah. And people get confused often. John's dog of the, he used to be the conductor of the LFL Gustavo Dudamel. It's great. And people get confused. Often. John's dog had more followers than me. And the conductor of the, he used to be the conductor of the LFL, Gustavo Dudamel, is aware of the dog. Because people will see the dog,

because the dog has like almost as many followers as the actual conductor, because I grinded up the account to like 20K. And the conductor had like a hundred at the time. And so like, people would like let him know. And we were all in LA, so we'd run into people and be like, oh yeah, like that's the dog. Would he ever say, I'd love to have your dog? I'm hundred at the time. And so people would let him know. And we were all in LA, so we'd run into people and be like, oh yeah, that's the dog. I'm friends with the conductor.

Yeah, what do you ever say? What do you ever say? I'd love to have your dog, Gustavo, in attendance. Yes, we considered bringing him. We had season tickets for a while. We gotta go back. It's right down the street from the capital of capital, the forces of finance, Disney Hall.

I think we both came to the conclusion that this... This next boy's trip. This article is not that interesting. It's not that interesting. I agree. Anyway, let's move on to some posts, some timeline, and some ads. Of course, I know that's what you've really been waiting for the advertisements just because this is a dumb episode means Doesn't mean we're not gonna do some ads. Come on people Tyler says this is a really deep understanding how VC works tweet The headline is cursor raises hundreds of millions at 10 billion. Are these investors visionary or crazy? That is because we intuitively assume that those investors lose money if cursor is ultimately worth less than 10 billion. But that's not true. They just don't make money.

To get to the point where investors actually lose money, the company's valuation needs to fall below the amount raised. So if you're investing in this round, here are your outcomes. Cursor exits at greater than 10 billion, you make money. Cursor exits at greater than 300 million to 10 billion, you get your money back.

Cursor exits at under 300 million, you lose your money. From a decision-making perspective, that changes the discussion from is this worth 10 billion to what is the likelihood that this is worth 20 to 50 billion in a few years? And to be clear, that's good. I think it's a very good thing for us to have risk capital that is both clear-eyed and focused on the potential for growth.

And then there's some, uh, there's some assumptions here. Uh, what'd you think Geordie? Why'd you like this? It's a good breakdown of the cursor deal. I mean, I'm sure a lot of people know about press, but you can break it down. Founders understand this because they've run the calculus for like, if I, I mean, Jeremy was on last week and was talking about this. They don't usually run the calculus until series A or B. Yeah, I find no, but I mean, they, they intuitively understand, okay, you raise $10 million. You got to return that sell for $10 million.

You're going to make $0. Yep. Um, and Jeremy talked about this last week, talking about founders that have 10 million of ARR, but raised 200 million dollars and they're growing at 30 percent, which means that they could grow for another five years, sell the company and still make zero dollars, right? Unless you get really creative. Like there are plenty of stories with acquihires where the investors get hosed and the founders get really like egregious pay packages at big companies. And a lot of funds are really upset by that, depending on the structure. Some funds don't care because they're like, yeah, like, oh, okay, yeah, we wrote down 10 million, whatever.

Like we're just happy for you to go on to the next thing. Call us when you leave and get your earn out and do the next thing. Yeah. But it's delicate. It is risky and yeah. And usually I would say it's the employees that are most frustrated by that because they're like structure the earn out. Well sure. But I'm just saying I know a situation of a very high profile company that sold in 2021 and the price of the acquisition was like way too low for the traction of the company. But the CEO got this ridiculously large incentive package at the new company and all the CEOs didn't even get all the employees.

Most of the employees didn't get the opportunity to join the acquirer. And so they were frustrated because they're like, we worked all this time for this equity. And then yeah, you are the only one that got the everyone just has to feel like it's fair. Yeah. And there are I thought this was worth I thought this was worth highlighting and people like everybody's trying to pick a part Oh, is cursors revenue durable? It's it's so easy to switch off. You've got YC partners like promoting windsurf.

Sure. All this stuff. And this is the right framework to be, it sounds like Thrive and Kushner are doing this new round. It hasn't been formally announced yet, but it's not so crazy to price it that way. And it's possible that cursor, I would imagine cursor's in a position where they don't need money. So they're saying, if you want to own a piece

of this company, this is the case. And if you're investing in this company and you think you could get a two or three X on this, if you're putting in $300 million, it's a great, it's not necessarily a slam dunk, grand slam venture return, but you're gonna return potentially hundreds of millions of dollars off of a single investment.

And your downside is relatively protected if you think that cursor in a Barricade scenario could sell for 300 million dollars and I would argue that I would argue that there's a lot of companies on earth That even if cursors revenue dropped dramatically They would say we'll pay 300 million dollars because you have great tech and we can integrate it You want to take the cop. Co-pilot. Yeah. 2.0 basically. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. These are interesting. I mean, there's a bunch of scenarios where it could work out, you know, if they're just printing money and they just keep growing the business and they get to high EBITDA,

like they can trade it, you know, I don't know, 10x EBITDA and get up to, yeah, you know, a couple hundred million in EBITDA and be good. Yeah, right. It's not that crazy And then yeah also all like every hyper scaler might need something that looks like this if they're doing development or or or running a You know you think like this could fit into AWS and the AWS tech stack It could replace github and be github 2.0 or copilot 2.0. I don't know. It's certainly a high valuation, but Exciting for the team that built it and very cool. We won't know the truth. And I mean, it feels like a size going moment. Let's give a cheers for the cursor. Cheers. Let's down this. Jordan, come on down it. I don't know. I'm going to keep nursing it. The brother. Well, let's go to Flo.

Okay, peer pressure. Do it. Great. Flo Crivellio says, just bought 50,000 flower seeds on Amazon and going to throw them all over the place in San Francisco. Just a heads up, in case you're wondering why everything is suddenly so fragrant and beautiful, it'll be me. It'll be all me.

Amazing. I put this in for you, John. This is very Kugin-coded. Totally. This is what you live me. Amazing. I put this in for you, John. This is very Kugin coded. Totally. This is what you live for. Yes. We want to elevate people that are making the world a more beautiful place, whether you are making, putting flowers everywhere or putting up swings everywhere.

Yes. You know, go repave the road. Yeah. If you're upset with the road in front of your house, just hire a private contractors to do it yourself. Do it yourself. Get some cement out there. Do it yourself. Get some cement out there. Do it. No, I think smell is underrated in terms of the evaluation of a particular

neighborhood. I've noticed that Beverly Hills smells very nice, but deafening noise pollution from all the Lamborghinis and M5 competitions. You might have something to do with that. Yeah, no, it's a lot of kids clearly driving like exorbitant sports cars. Yeah, it's very aggressive. It's their daily driver to school the GT3 RS. And I do think, yeah, I mean, we were talking about the EPA earlier.

Maybe we do need some quiet modes. Yeah, but if you can put up enough flowers on either side of the road and- And deafen that down. Do GMO flowers to get them the size of trees. That'd be great. They could really dampen that no flowers to get them. Yes That'd be great. They could really dampen. Yeah. Yeah, or or maybe just you know upgrade from the the event doors and the Hurricanes to 19 spiders because it's a hybrid you can drive in electric only mode That's that's great a lot of the new hyper cars super cars. They have an electric drive chain

So they're hybrid so you can drive them quietly until you get up into the canyons Nobody cares. Yeah, then you can rip Thank you flow for your for your work. Thank you flow I'm excited to see how that pans out visit SF and see the flowers. Let's go to Kyle Harrison with some news Service Titan is at a seven point nine five billion market cap This is an eight billion billion company that started as software for garage door repair people. TAM is almost always a terrible reason to pass.

So little lore for you. In college, I wanted to move to LA. I was working on what became my first company. And I was barely making money at the time. I was making like a couple grand a month, and it was like senior year. I was like, I don't know if I can actually sort of scale this to the point where I can pay for rent and food

and all this stuff. So I interviewed at Service Titan. First interview went well. Second interview, thought it went well. They rejected me. And I'm sure I would have done actually very well if I'd I mean obviously I wouldn't have stayed in the wage cage no just financially just financially if I just stayed

there yeah but I won in the end because that turned you know what I was working on turned into a business that you know does millions of dollars in revenue to this day so your loss service Titan yeah but I'm glad though I'm glad they are building, you know, great software for garage door repair And I believe they're in LA here Uh, they are they're in glendale. Yeah, right around the corner and great name like really aggressive name. I love it Anyway, let's move on to an ad we got an ad from ad quick Out-of-home advertising made easy and measurable Say goodbye to the headaches of out of home advertising. Only AdQuick combines technology, out of home expertise,

and data to enable efficient, seamless ad buying across the globe. Let's go, get yourself a billboard on AdQuick. Okay, so speaking of ads, Ted Turner, founder of CNN, started by running his father's out of home ad business. It was basically like AdQuick, but they owned. Whew. Easy there, John.

But instead of AdQuick, doesn't own the underlying inventory. There's a sort of software layer on top of it. But Ted Turner's dad had started an out of home advertising network that Ted Turner took over. And the reason I know that is because I was listening to the Founders Podcast episode this morning because Reggie posted about Ted Turner on Friday. Oh, what a great thread.

Reggie had said, and this post analysis is brought to you by AdQuick, obviously. He says, I've been researching the 80s a bit as a comparison for viewing the world today. I feel like Ted Turner is such an interesting character, founder of CNN, which was the start of the 24 seven news cycle. We restarted it for tech.

Yes. Genuinely a futurist in many ways, my favorite quote from him. We won't be signing off until the world ends. We'll be on and we will cover the end of the world live. And that will be our very, it will be our last event. But the thing is he actually made a video made

for the last broadcast ever known as the Turner Doomsday video. It was leaked by an intern and posted on YouTube. That's amazing. We gotta watch that on the stream. We should make our own Doomsday video. We should. And it's just us popping hundreds of bottles.

Not even drinking them, just saying, hey, we had this stockpile. It's the Doomsday. We don't need it anymore. Yeah, what an interesting thinker to do that. I wonder if there's anyone else who's filmed a doomsday video in tech that hasn't leaked. Like is there a Zuck doomsday video

or Elon doomsday video or Sam Altman doomsday video that's out there. Hey, brothers, go leak it. Go find it and leak it, put it on YouTube, please. Yeah, we'll cover your cost of living until you can get rehired by the next Bean Air that you're gonna leak their Doomsday video. That's great.

Let's move on to Antonio Garcia Martinez. The hardest to acquire and most exclusive watch in the collection, almost three years in the making. And it says, thank you for being a part of the base team. This custom Seiko watch designed by our creative team honors precision, reliability and motion, qualities that define base and drive us forward. Its automatic movement winds with every step,

a symbol of the momentum we're building together. Here's to the work we've done and to 2025, it's time to bring the world on chain. That's great. I love it. Inspired by, do we still have? Oh, the XL watch? That said it's time to- Oh, it's time to create shareholder value. Yeah, yeah. It's time to bring the world on chain. Yeah, yeah,

a timepiece. Great. No, I was wondering. I got to we got to ask Quaid at bezel was this factory or is this they just bought it and then they just redid? I don't know. Yeah, I mean, sometimes you can swap out the dial and just kind of upgrade that. But of course, go to bezel dot go to get bezel Dot-com get a luxury watch get a Seiko get a grand Seiko get anything get an FP joint We've been looking at we've been looking at Patek

Chronograph stopwatches. Oh, yeah, because we want to time the show on a top time the show and just looking at your computer clock over 20,000 luxury watches fully authenticated by Bezel's in-house team Highly recommend installing the app surfing finding something great to add to your collection In Tahoe this weekend saw a lot of Apple watches really really harsh the mood. I would say yeah It'd be much better to see something more fitting of that echelon of society. Yeah, if you're skiing to wear your nicest watch. What do you need an Apple Watch for?

When I was in Switzerland just before New Year's, I saw a guy that just got back from skiing, and he took off his gloves and he had this like I think it was the orange the orange aquanaut that Alex rocks and I was like that's it that's great you know go out skiing love it you know with a six-figure watch on shows confidence in your abilities it's great. Where is this second post? Um, we got a lot of posts in here. We got to go through. Let's just do this one. Mount Rushmore at sunset. Let's go. I just want to just celebrate Mount Rushmore at sunset.

Here we go. I got this. Is this a real picture? It almost looks AI generated. It is. Do you have this one, Ben? But we gotta make a new Mount Rushmore. We gotta need more monuments. A lot of gill. Where's your Rushmore? We gotta do Statue of Liberty on the East Coast.

What was it? Statue of Justice on the West Coast. Replace Alcatraz with a massive statue. I love Mount Rushmore. You've been, I haven't been. We should go. We should. We should set up.

So I'd really like to get a, a mobile studio, but like set up more like one of those phone, phone booths where the truck like drops it off and then leaves. So we're just sitting there right in front of Mount Rushmore recording with a nice view of it. Be great. And if the police come, we'll just lock the doors and just keep podcasting as long as we have an internet connection.

Yeah, I mean, yeah, just so cool to go blow up some mountains and make some faces. So much fun. Anyway, the story that I wanted to talk about was Orca. Orca is an energy water launched by this guy, Michael Moriarty, 13 months ago, he put up this idea and it's now live and available, 150 milligrams of caffeine, zero calories, zero sugar.

And he posted 13 months, four failed production runs and more stress than we ever imagined all for the clear can worth it question mark and gift of trees to be clear we covered this last week. Last week. Remember this is launch video of the guy from musical that was just reading out the side creative, very creative, very fun. But but he's getting dunked on here by gift of trees of draw of barrel. Doesn't sound like that person has a LinkedIn, but we'll read it anyway.

The clear plastic PET beverage can patent was granted in 2015 to a Polish packaging manufacturing company. This dude did nothing but pay a beverage contract packer to license the patent and fill it with liquid designed in the co-packer's lab. And yes, that is exactly true. That's how you launch a new consumer package

of his product these days. You go to a co-packer, have them make it. He made the interesting choice of using the clear plastic can, which I wanna talk to you about, because on the one hand, this really does stand out on the shelf and you could imagine seeing this and and it would just look different than Celsius Red Bull

monster, where they're all aluminum cans, but at the same time, plastic could not be less cool right now. So what's your take? So I've seen Michael working on this for a long time. Yeah, I think he's got good instinct and taste. I think the marketing has been great. I think the packaging looks cool. I think the concept of just a clear-ish energy water, like energy water, like conceptually is just cool. As opposed to like this nuclear fuel-looking Red Bull.

It's a green and it's like, what am I drinking? So energy water is super cool. I do believe the actual formulation is difficult to get to the point where it's zero calorie and it tastes good and it's not filled with a bunch of insane additives. I looked at this entire thread, gift of trees of drought of barrels by intractable lion.

Yes. And he's a massive hater against people that are not. So, so I actually looked at the backstory. So he's a run cider ease. So he restores these sort of legacy, uh, uh, orchards that have been run down and he, and so it's like the most craft process, not even making the liquid, but making the barrel, making the trees, the orchards. So, so he's a gift of trees and draw out a barrel. Of course, the gifts of trees. So I'd like to have this guy on the show to talk about the business of, of a bespoke cidery. That sounds interesting, but he's a huge hater on this guy, Michael, for no reason. Yes, I agree. It's, Michael didn't say I

invented the clear plastic. No, he said, Yeah, if you're making a caffeinated caffeine has a super bitter taste. Totally. Yeah, you have to iterate on stuff. You've got to iterate on it. Yeah, it's a good thing that they didn't just use the first version that they produced. And so this is actually a much longer thread where Gift of Trees have Draught of Barrel is just hating on this guy super hard. And I don't-

It's like, just don't buy it. Yeah, yeah, just don't buy it. It's fine. You don't have to buy it. That's the beauty of capitalism. I think that Michael will be dramatically more commercially successful and Gift of Trees have Dra drawed a barrel is upset.

I don't know about that. Is this really a long short trade right now? Who knows? Maybe they both are going long. I'm going long orca orca. I would not invest in gifts of trees have drawn them barrel. I don't know, man. I think there might be something to this. He scales this up. Maybe he starts putting the cider in plastic bottles. Yeah, maybe honestly, here's what I'd like to see collab work it out both come on the show yeah we'll negotiate and you guys can collab maybe you can find success in plastic bottles exactly what the world needs bring yeah bring the science

project with the trad based stuff together it's a a match made in heaven. Everyone can be happy But Michael does respond and he says I wish it had been that easy We didn't invent the can we spent 13 months figuring out how and who could actually fill them at scale at every step We were told just to switch to a normal can every canning line in the country is built for aluminum Nothing was plug-and-play and so yeah like it is hard at work even to just put something in a can that exists or is So yeah, like it is hard at work even to just put something in a can that exists or is patented because the manufacturing supply might not be there. And, and, and, and this is the, you know, the,

the unfortunate like struggle and the schlep of getting a consumer product to, to, to market. I mean, you, I'm sure you went through with Aurora where you're like, okay, there's like a million different manufacturing decisions to make. And we want to maintain our brand values and what we're doing. And there's a bunch of trade-offs and stuff. I distinctly remember when my co-founders, Brian and Charlie, we got the visual that looked almost identical to this.

And then there were still like 10,000 decisions to be made and both Brian and Charlie were just like, you know, incredibly in the weeds on every single one. They're all very high stakes and you know, there's so many small setbacks and things like that. So that's the beauty of the reason that beverage attracts so many sort of new entrepreneurs is that it's a super tangible idea of I can see it in my head. I can put the right ingredients in the can, and then I'm gonna sell it, and it's just so much harder.

It's a widgets business. But at the same time, for a long time, software was super high status because it was so complicated to understand C++, or Java, or Python, and deployment, and AWS, and servers, and all this stuff. And now it's been like, oh, well, you can vibe code

a flight simulator in a day, but it takes 13 months to put caffeine in a can. It's like kind of weird, but we're kind of flipping. And this is like the Bits and Adams thing. Bits just move faster. So good luck, Michael. Send us some product if you see this. I'd love to taste test.

There's a, my wife invested in a company that at like a like a five cap that put olive oil in a plastic bottle. Yep. And it's up 50 in like two something years. Great. And so just something as simple as, you know, as sort of in this case, novel product, energy water in a new form, in a new bottle, it's very possible

this is wildly successful. It's funny seeing him gripe about production because wait until you try and go into retail, buddy. It's gonna be a million times better. Oh, because you have to change everything? No, no, no, no, no. Oh, you're just saying retail generally. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah.

Just like actually getting retail distribution on this is going to be 1,000 times more frustrating. Not that he can't do it and it won't be difficult, but it's going to be a lot more just unreasonable. Basically, you have to pay us to put this on our shelves. Oh, totally. Like every deal is bespoke and you're competing with Elani Neu and Celsius and Red Bull.

And they all have monopolies and they all want, hey, we want to keep our our yerba mate on the shelf and you're competing against every other company. And that's really where the game is won. Like Graza, the olive oil company, has won because they're in every store now. I'm sure they're doing great on e-commerce, but that company is not a 50X return.

They don't figure out retail. And retail is hard and a schlep, and it's something that is probably gonna be, make these four failed production runs look like the easy mode. Anyway, good luck to you, Michael, and send us some, we'd love to try it. Should we go to Max Meyer?

Before that, I'd like to do a promoted ad. Let's do it. So we have from Jose, high class and tasteful. And he doesn't even do any type of review. He just does the headline, which is high class and tasteful, five stars. And he jumps right into the ad, which is very aggressive. Yeah, what is this? But potentially a smart move because most people have been putting it.

So he says, variable and early stage company HQ in Dallas helps manufacturers scale efficiently with a flexible on demand labor model. This gives us manufacturers a competitive edge over China without relying on AI sweatshops or bloatware staffing prop platforms like Traba. Hey taking shots. Mike's a friend of the show but you know sometimes attack ads are Are effective very variable optimize your labor eliminates low or OT work boost productivity and tracks key metrics Visit variable ops calm and tell them to give Jose a raise so he's just taking the initiative He's he's not the founder, but he's getting out there So I'm gonna go there and just tell them to give Jose a raise okay even though I don't think we're qualified unless we need to get Ben. Yeah we gotta test drive that product. Ben where are you? Oh he's there.

And one more review while we're at it okay this is hard power soft beliefs in my review of technology brothers TBPN is the seminal technology podcast of our day. John and Jordy exemplify the human desire to create and contribute to a product that is bigger than the self, a devotion to the aesthetic. And for that, I'm grateful to the Brotherhood. This five-star review is brought to you by Technorepublic on X, a new project

that shares the best quotes and ideas from Alexander Karp's book, The Technological Republic. Follow Technorepub on X today to join your fellow brothers building the future of the West. Very cool. I'm going to go I'm going to go follow this right now. Fantastic. And thank you for the review. While you're doing that, we'll move over to Max Meyer, also another publisher, similar to Alex Garb actually works with a another Palantir co-founder over at ABC.

Max Meyer says, airports these days are the perfect picture of American affluenza. The US upper-ish class has too much money but never enough. Lots of suspicious pre-borders. Teens in designer clothes. $500 headphones muttering what to flight staff. There are like 50 people in boarding group one now as well. You can see the confusion on people's faces who've clearly been boarding first for a while, who now wait 20 minutes standing just to have their spot in line. The lounges are overrun. And again, you can see the exasperation on the

faces of people waiting for them, thinking they'd paid for a service and realizing that now it's like Disneyland. Prices across the board have gone up and demand keeps up. This is one of the main effects of mass affluence, I guess. Airline taxes are as high as ever. And as a result, actual budget flights, a la Ryanair, are not allowed. At this point, a budget flight is anything under $300. People are amazingly unforgiving. They get violent looks in their eyes when staff announced that overhead

bin space will run out for many flyers. Being asked to check a bag is like being asked for one of their kidneys. So many people look at children like they're rodents that have infiltrated the house rather than our treasures and our futures." He's such a good writer. Parents are the scapegoat of every flight. Funny enough, the TSA feels like the one thing that has gotten better. Maybe I choose my airports and flying times well, but I don't remember the last time I

waited more than 15 minutes to get through. Sometimes the clear line is comically longer than the regular line next to it. And for whatever reason, people will just not move over sometimes the clear line is comically longer than the regular line next to it and for whatever reason people will Just not move over to the shorter line. It's pretty rare to see actual balling brawling But you do hear about those things as a writer and chronicler of America this entropy interests me Yeah, interesting Basically an ad for private jets. I completely agree with you max Everyone should be flying into g650 er ideally

Maybe we're gonna have rare and have that yeah intelligence. Yes, that's one of the things Sam Altman's gone on record He said exactly if moss is able to do this round Yeah, so problem solved soon and figure figure allegedly is training their robots to build PJs Oh, actually, you won't even need to yeah and mine the or needed to create the jet So you buy your figure for 20 grand? Yeah, it'll actually build you a Gulf stream and that's coming in 12 to 18 months, right? Yes, perfect. Yes. Perfect. Okay, just just after the IPO. Yeah, just Just after the next fundraise. Yeah. It'll be here. Great. Yeah. Well, that's fantastic. Let's move on. Avi Schiffman, back on the show. We got to have him on live soon. He says,

companies should shut down when the founder leaves. Pretty good take. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, Ben Thompson has an interesting take on this. And they should, if the founder passes away, they should just, like, it should shut down in solidarity. In solidarity? Yeah. Dead man switch. If I die, my company goes with me. No, I mean, Ben Thompson has a take on this, which is basically like, companies do not need to go on forever. So it's actually okay for a company to be in kind of its late stage and just dividend all the profits until it's like done.

This is kind of what's happening with like the cigarette companies. Like literally no one is no one like new smokers are not emerging. The market is shrinking. They just increase the price on the reducing customer base. And over time they make the same amount of revenue, but their cash flows are steady. And so they're just going to like whittle down basically. And they all have plans of like, oh, we'll get into the new markets but none of them are doing that well in the new alternative market and so a lot of people are just like, well, they dividend a lot, they pay out and so if you have a, Altru is a $100 billion company, if you invest right now and you get $150 billion

in cash returned to you over the next five years or something, like that could be a good deal, even if the value of the stock is zero at the end. Like, it's fine. Yeah. So, hot take, but fun. I think Avi dropping these, they're thought provoking. Totally.

And I think there's some value to that. Yeah, it's fun. Good poster. Tim Sussman says we invested in a YC startup a week ago. Their revenue growth was so high. It would have been crazy to ignore it. Just saw them in alumni demo day. They doubled their revenue in the past week. Let's go. That's exciting. We're very, oh yeah. And a cheers. Let's cheers the Dom pairing on.

And we have some YC News that we'll be sharing. We'll be at Dodo day in just a few days. I was gonna say we can share it tomorrow. We'll be there. Well, we're gonna announce what we're gonna be doing there in tomorrow, I guess. But let's move on to windsurf sharing a video from YC from their Light Cone podcast, Jason. So Windsurf says, not every day you wake up to a shout out from Y Combinator. Jared Freeman explains why founders are switching to Windsurf.

Is Windsurf a YC company? Or are they just like loved by YC? I don't know. Watch me figure it out. The fact that the partner was coming out and taking such a strong stand makes you think anyway Jason Lemkin Says brutal competition always comes to software partners become competitors Collaborators compete usually it takes a few years though to get real AI is accelerating at the pace an order of magnitude

encoding and Contact center already. Huh, I can't really understand that. Will it do the same to your category? Interesting. So yeah, I mean, I don't even understand what you're saying. A lot of people were pushing back on this saying, if you don't think that cursor indexes your code base, you haven't used it, but- Indexes your code base. You haven't used it, but I don't.

Oh, like pulls it in as like training data. I mean, there's just like layers and layers to this fight right now. There's like the cursor versus windsurf debate, but then there's also the cursor versus cloud code debate that's happening. Yeah. Will it all commoditize?

Who knows? Yeah. Anyway, a lot of gills in the gundo, wondering if he should get some curls and zin in He also really wants a mustache this place may have changed me forever I like I love when a new size Lord capital allocator takes the gundo tour, you know, Augustus took them around I'm sure yeah introduce him to everyone else Little bit of a controversial post because he spells Zin wrong.

It's Z-Y-N. He's a C-I-N. And also in the Gundo, man, I mean, this is like the highest penetration place in the world for Lucy. So Zin's kind of out there. Got to get on the next generation of products when it comes to nicotine. But you should do some curls and some bench press. And you should basically just wind down your podcast become a size Lord Become a mass monster and go for your IFBB Pro card I've met that's what we want to see and I think you have it Scott what it takes you get diced Get big and do the the Mount Rushmore of the West. Yes next topic

my Dear friend my oldest friend. Yeah Called me last night. Like long after I went to bed, I go to bed very early. So I saw it this morning and he just joined the chat on YouTube and said, Hey, Jordy, he just called me and I told him I'm live right now. I can't talk. And he said in the chat, I wanted to let you know I got engaged. Oh wow, congratulations. Cheers to Cody and his lovely fiance, Emily. And congratulations, Cody, I love you. And if we ever need a financial model, he is the guy to go to.

Right now we're just sort of vibe coding our finance, but absolute finance, Chad. Congratulations. Well, speaking of your early bedtime, we are sponsored by eight sleep nights that fuel your best days. Turn any bed into the ultimate sleeping experience. Go to eight sleep dot com slash TBPN and upgrade your sleeping experience. I was miserable the last two nights, honestly, at

the Ritz Carlton, which not a bad hotel. They don't have eight sleeps and I was miserable the last two nights, honestly, at the Ritz-Carlton, which not a bad hotel. They don't have eight sleeps and it was miserable. It was not a fun experience. It really does ruin every other bed. So get one, never travel ever again and just stay in your eight sleep forever. It truly is unbelievably good. It's so good. We highly recommend it. Check it out. Uh, anyway, this morning I, it was, so I woke up 4 45. Yeah. It's effectively 3 45.

My brain completely. It's the dead of night. And you know what I thought to myself? Thank God for eight sleep. comm slash TBPN. Yes, anybody can get $400 off. Yes sleep. Yes and Get to experience the sort of the joy Warming effect in the morning. It really makes me so easy. It's crazy and the vibration alarm clock I don't do that one. You gotta try it. You gotta try it. Yeah. It's subtle.

I've tried it. I just the warm works for me. It's subtle. And it is a good option. It's fantastic. It's great. Well, anyway, go check it out. Let's move on to the OptiFi kids.

This is the YC company that was canceled briefly, but they're back. They created a sweatshop software essentially. That was the critique of them but they leaned in they went direct and they printed t-shirts that say justice for worker 17 and Spore says the Optify kids are gonna be alright they're having fun with it they clearly realized that their first message didn't resonate they turned it around and I cannot wait to talk to these guys because I think they're having fun and I love it Yeah, we're gonna talk to them Wednesday. Yeah, it was great. So love love justice for worker 17 creating a lot of fun on the timeline a lot of a great meme and

Still just so funny that happened all the back and forth Yeah, but they had a good time. And I think they, I think this is the right way to handle it. They, they didn't put out some groveling posts saying like, we're sorry. Oh, they just like, they, they kind of took a breather. I think if anything, it will be helpful because every investor at the very least want to talk to them for the novelty for the novelty of talking to the, yeah, the legends.

Yeah. The legends. And I mean, we, we talked about this before, like there's so many things that you could tweak in that presentation and that software that would be beneficial. And I mean, they created such a meme that someone built an OptiFi clone for PMF or die, which is fully functional, fully functional. You can go to PMF orye.xyz and see the productivity of the two guys that are in the cage right now,

Blake and Patty. And so you can check it out. And it's hilarious that somebody built that so fast. But I mean, it helps when they're live streaming. Yeah. Anyway, let's move on to another YC founder, an alum, one of the legends, Emmett Shear. He says, when I was CEOing at Twitch,

one of the things I do every batch of interns was a very short presentation on the origins of the company and then a Q&A. One of the questions is always, where should I work and what job should I get or should I start a company? And he goes on to say, it's an interesting question to try and answer for an intern I didn't really know because of course the actual answer is dependent on that

Person and their life so I decided so I had to figure out how to articulate the framework. I used first There's money obviously you want money, but money is a well-known for diminishing returns debatable After you have enough for rent and food and so on then yeah, so you don't want to optimize for cash It's more of a constraint then there's prestige How much will getting this job impress people? Prestige is mostly a trap. For the same reason designer clothing brands are bad deals,

also debatable. Brand might make something less discerning. People think better of you, but it won't actually make you better or better off. Power is also on offer, usually called impact, and the chance to make a difference or mission. We like power because it feels good to wield the pure joy of throwing a stone in the lake

and watching it splash. And also- We need to have it to write a book. Yeah, I mean he's a great writer, and really great points. What is your framework when someone asks you, where should I work or should I start a company? So general advice, generalized advice,

is probably one of the most dangerous things in the entire world. There's nothing. Yes, you can get advice and try to kind of general advice from somebody that you don't know and try to apply it to your life. Everyone should have an eight sleep. Everyone should buy a watch on bezel.

Everyone should be on public. Everyone should be on ramp. But I hear your point, yes. And obviously, advertising adequate. But obviously. No, this is the thing. To me, the most important thing you can do in your 20s is develop a meaningful enough relationship

with smart enough people whose lives you admire and only get advice from them. David Senra and Sean Frank are two of the only people on earth that aren't immediate Family or you that or Ben our lovely producer Ben But but in general like I only take sort of professional advice from a couple people in the world Yep, because they understand my values. They know the things that I care about they know what I want to optimize for they know know all these things, and they are have a unique and earned perspective. Yep. And so it's much better to have, you know, one or two people and only get

sort of professional advice from them. And that is the thing that has served me the best in life. The best career decisions that I've made were in response to people like Sean Frank's advice, people like, you know, David Center center's advice and I can kind of pinpoint even the conversation. So yeah, get a real wallet, start a podcast. Yeah. Like, like, um, I think if you had a strong personal relationship with Naval, I'm sure he could give you really, really, really good advice, but just blanket, you know, taking his advice,

like you should work like a lion and then somebody like works hard for two days two days off like don't do that you know like you need to sort of like take it yeah and process it and then ideally get the same advice from somebody that actually knows well I threw this post in here randomly but it seems like an answer to Emmett Shears post from Guillermo Rao over at Versailles he says in a world of infinite possibility the alpha is in focus quality and depth and that feels like from Guillermo Rau over at Versailles, he says, in a world of infinite possibility, the alpha is in focus, quality, and depth. And that feels like the right level of meta advice

that is almost safe to apply to everyone. It's not go work at this specific company. Except if you're an investor and you're like, oh, I'm really into games, and then somebody pitches you a CRM and then it becomes Salesforce. Yeah. And it's like, you took the advice of, I'm really into games. And then somebody pitches you a CRM and then it becomes Salesforce. And it's like, you took the advice of, I'm just gonna fall.

So again, you can always apply these things. Focus, quality, and depth. Does that keep you from investing in Salesforce? Yeah, because you're saying, I'm gonna be the best, I'm gonna be the best investor. You're too focused on that point. But I'm gonna deliver the best returns and I'm just gonna focus on.

Well, it depends on what you're focusing on. You could be focusing on founders, right? Quality of businesses. Like, it doesn't necessarily need to be something as narrow as, I mean, focusing on a specific company or a specific niche. You could be focusing on an axiom of investing. But yes, I hear your point.

Interesting. Well, let's go to another post about being young and doing great things. Gabriel says, the only thing stopping me from doing great things when I was young was that I thought I was a moron and there were too many people smarter than me. I still do. The only difference is that I realized everyone else is a moron as well. It's kind of a midwit meme.

Yes. It was actually a huge un-lodger-maxing. Yes. When I realized the bell curve of people is not that wide and being economically productive Seems to come from what thoughts and insight about the world rather than genes Interesting good one Did we talk about service now at all? I don't think we have Now is buying move works the AI platform for almost three billion dollars

They were backed by Bayne size Kongs liner for the shareholders and Bain and Lightspeed and Kleiner and their LPs. Yeah. Great moment. Great moment, great exit. ServiceNow is a company that I just don't know anything about. I mean, honestly, when we put this in the stack,

I was like, I kind of got confused with ServiceTitan. Yeah, yeah, yeah. ServiceNow, ServiceTitan, like we're doing two stories on the same thing. this is 160 billion dollar company It's much bigger than service Titan service Titans. What eight billion It's a cloud computing platform for the creation and management of automated business workflows. Let's go buying a Platform called move works don't know bros hate this hate this one weird trick trick. Make $100 billion building B2B SaaS. Augustus, somebody needs to do a wellness check

on Augustus Torrico right now. Honestly, somebody should go and do a content warning, tell Augustus, hey, don't listen to this episode. Minute, hour, two, and a half, trigger warning. They're talking about ServiceNow, be careful. You're gonna be super depressed when you hear how much money people are making automating business processes. Yeah, well, that's the thing. Some people wake up and from a young age, they know they want

to live a life that allows them to deliver value through automating business processes. Yeah, yeah, that's different. Yeah, that's a guy. Yeah. It's their life's work. They're live players. My icky guy is automating business processes. You're laughing but it's true. It's real. Some people love this and build for it. It's great. Anyway, if you want to get on on service now in the action, head over to public.com.

Investing for those who take it seriously, they have multi-asset investing, industry leading yields, they're trusted by millions. Of course, this is not financial advice, but it is the preferred platform of TPM. The Technology Brothers. So go check it out. Anyway, let's move on to former brother of the week,

Justin Mayers, profiled in None Other Than Forbes, our favorite publication that we never say anything negative about, we love Forbes here. That's right. Eight years of hard work, and Justin and Kettle and Fire have been featured in Forbes, congratulations. And so to be clear, this was not a contributor piece

that you can basically get for 20 bucks. This was a cover story. Cover story. Daily cover story. Let's go. Beautiful picture of Justin. It shows him. Yeah, looking fantastic.

And a bunch of the brothers in the community quoted this and said nice things about him, but I just liked the boy who sold soup. The boy who sold soup. That's, that is so good. From John Fio. Oh my God. The boy who sold soup.

Incredible read, so good. Here's the thing though, Justin is incredibly hardworking and kind. Yeah. And it's fantastic. There's a reason he's a former brother of the week. Yes. And some people have said to me they

don't know when I'm being sarcastic or when I'm being serious. Not being sarcastic right now. Incredible human. He's a great guy. And I'm lucky to call him a friend. And I can't wait for our episode on Thursday when Justin joins.

We're going to be talking about the hot topics in consumer health. We'll talk about who's making money on Maha, which I'm excited about, what the vibes are like at Mar-a-Lago where he's been spending time. It's great. And of course, the bone broth empire he's built. He made his money in bone broth.

He's basically built a almost, like I don't even say this ironically, he's built. He made his money. He's basically built a almost like I don't even say this. Ironically, he almost has a monopoly on the bone broth. He really does. He really does. It's actually how much money is he making? Jordi? 100 a year. Let's go million dollars. That's their run rate. I think they're probably well. That was when whenever you know, I think they're probably well beyond that now. It's a fantastic business. He's a fantastic entrepreneur. We got a fantastic post from bucko capital bloke and I'm going to read this.

Read it. Dude, it's Jevons paradox. It's literally bemal's cost disease. A classic example of gal man's amnesia effect. Oh, that's the Monty hall problem. It's orthogonal to Dutch disease. It's a prisoner's dilemma. You're a prisoner. You're in prison. You're in prison. You're in prison. It's great. So mental models trapped in the mental trapped in a mental model trapped in a framework. I can't get out. Yeah. Absolute banger. He's had some great posts today. While we're at it, I'm going to I'm going to pull it. He was talking about the Redfin acquisition, right? Oh yeah, yeah. I think that's the bottom of the stack.

The bloke was... Says Redfin got acquired today, shout out to their CEO for one of the wildest things I've ever heard on an earnings call. The analyst on this earnings call for Redfin says, what if mortgage rates don't come down? Of course, this would be harmful to Redfin's business because they buy and sell homes.

And when mortgage rates go down, people buy a lot of homes. And Glenn, the CEO says- Which is a public company CEO. Do we need to censor any of this? I don't think so. Glenn says, will drink our own urine or our competitor's blood stay in the foxhole? No, he says great question.

Plan B is drink our own urine or our competitors blood stay in the foxhole. I don't know if you remember, but our last earnings call ended with a single line from a who song won't get fooled again, where I said we're not banking on low rates when other people had thought they might come down. I don't know.

Weird. Go Glenn, he got out, he sold the company. Congrats to Glenn. Congrats. Sighs gong for Glenn. And yeah, I love a, I love a, I love a CEO dropping a hot take on an earnings call. Real, uh, you know, don't have a lot of time to post when you're running a public company. You got to get those bangers out in the earnings call. Then the analyst asks. That's crazy. They were trading.

Yeah, what was Refin worth? It was a Zillow competitor, right? Oh, wow. They were trading at like a quarter of their revenue. Ooh, rough. Yeah. Tough go. Anyway.

But they got out. Yeah, they got out. Let's move on to Blake Anderson. He's locked in the cage right now. But he says 10X will be a hundred million dollar company within one year He's manifesting What's their error right now? They haven't launched yet. So they're still at zero, but they haven't spent much money They're only a couple weeks into the cage and their goal

Of course is to hit one million dollars in ARR in 90 days and he's very confident about that and he's confident that he will take It further take it all the way to 100 million all the way So good luck to Blake if you want to go check out what he's doing go to PMF or die calm anyway Let's move on to oh Josh wolf. He says Incredible leadership in the United Arab Emirates as a husband to his super successful feminist in a male-dominated world and father to two bold daughters raised by my sacrifice at all single mom and grandma. Women have more rights in the UAE than some US states." He's clearly fundraising, but I just want to take a second to say

the UAE is one of the greatest innovations in human rights in the world. And I think that everyone needs to acknowledge that at this point, everything in the Middle East is fantastic and I can't say enough good things and you know I really hope that everyone in the Middle East can come together and support American financial markets more aggressively than ever before. What do you think, Jordy? I agree, John. Fantastic. Absolutely.

Let's move on to Gary Tann. You're not beating the fundraising allegations. Will started a rumor mill last week when he said he was leading around in TPPN. There had been rumors that we had been in the Middle East, and so you're not really helping the rumor mill, John. But anyways, back to the show. We do what we have to do. Did you hear about the Simpsons producer who was forced to demolish his 24 year old Simpsons

inspired treehouse after the city of LA demanded he permanent like a single family dwelling Gary Tan says deregulate housing yes and yeah I couldn't agree it is post fires it's more important than ever to reconsider How permitting is is is done? It's a tree house and they wanted it to be ADA compliant So they wanted a wheelchair ramp into the tree house, which I think was probably Impossible, so they made him tear down very sad and and my my problem with this is like, I am

okay with, I'm okay with, with housing regulations and, and, and rules around how you build things. Cause you know, you don't want someone building some massive structure that just falls over and destroys your house next to you. But you need high throughput approvals. And what I was, what I was kind of pitching was like, there should be a CAD plugin where you design your structure and at every moment it's running the algorithm to say,

is this approved or is this denied? And then you can just see, okay, everything's green, click print the plans, go build it, you're good. Instead of, oh, we designed the blueprints and then we send them in and then month later it comes back and they have one tweak and then another month and just goes back and forth and back and forth. And it's very annoying and now is the time to fix housing and Gary Tan has been a very vocal

voice for that. So we love it. We actually have a whole bunch of Gary Tan posts here. Let's go to the next one. He's quote tweeting someone who says, so I just simply asked Manus to give me the files. We, we already talked about this. And Gary, I don't know if you want to cover this, but. He came to a similar conclusion, which is all the alpha is in custom prompting, tool use, and clever workflow and evals. I can't wait for demo day.

I'm sure we're gonna see a lot of people adopting similar approaches to Manus, as some people call it, Manus Some people call it mannus. My news, the nominative determinism is that you will be hung by it. Yes. It's not great. Anyway, dark, uh, things got a little spicy with the acquired podcast. They flew out to Taiwan. They interviewed TSMC founder Morris Chang legend. I've been calling for Morris Chang to go on Joe Rogan for years now and

It hasn't happened. We saw it's not go on we saw Peter Thiel go on We saw an evolve rock on Mark Andreessen's been on I wanted Morris Chang to go on Rogan didn't happen But fortunately the good folks over at acquired podcast got it done. They flew out there. They interviewed him, but bunny exchange Gilbert says, TSMC is essentially the only trillion dollar company in the world, not on the West Coast of the United States. It is incredibly, it is this incredibly important thing in the world, it is, it's this unlikely success

of grand scale, and Morris Chang cuts him off and says, unlikely in your opinion, and Gilbert says, I mean, you started it when you were 56. There are many things, and Chang chimes in again and says I'm not gonna argue with you I merely asked it I merely asked as a point of curiosity I didn't think that it was unlikely Bob I love that's great go over to meet with a what 80 year old founder and he just tells you I never had a doubt in my mind not for a second after a second so So but I mean, the the, the acquired

guys are doing fantastic interviews. And they are I mean, I hope this soundbite goes viral or like there's more sound bites from the Morris Chang interview that go viral because there's that famous Jensen Wong interview that they did, where there's that clip that goes viral where they're like, if you had to go back and you had To do it all again. Would you do it? And he's just like no, I wouldn't do it. It's been too hard. It's been too miserable I don't like it. It's bad. Like I'm here check out my leather jacket. Yeah

Yeah, it's a very very very funny interaction and they're and they obviously do a ton of research on these companies So they show up extremely prepared and get great sound bites And so go check it out. You can listen to the TSMC founder Morris Chang on the Acquired Podcast and go to their YouTube. It's probably in their RSS feed as well. Okay. One more post and then and before we do that last post, I wanted to share. That's what you got to do before the next post. I'm going to stop myself at two because I fish the bottle. Yeah, there's no rule about it. There's no rule about a Dom episode. Let's go to the chat. What do you think should?

No, but I wanted to give a quick shout out to wander. Okay. Number one place to book vacation rentals in the world. They are more than vacation homes. They are simply By your happy Fine your happy place find your happy place book a wander with inspiring you we need the guitar for that Yeah, we do we do need the guitar Hotel great amenities dreamy beds top tier cleaning and 24-7 concierge service is a vacation home but better. Jordy do you have a link or a code? Yeah you just have to go to wander.com slash TBPN. Yes. If you just create an

account they're gonna give away a I think it's like a four-ish night trip to someone in our audience. That's a long trip that's nice. Yeah yeah yeah. Longer than I was in Tahoe. So go do it takes a second you can use Google or any other login and you'd be silly not to And invite us maybe we'll come that sounds we rarely leave the house except to do the show You book one that has a podcasting room will be there. Yeah, fantastic Let's go to Gabe tech guys take up a creative hobby because they want to prove they are in sold Unlike all other tech guys and then they'd end up taking and then they end up with the exact same

hobbies as all other tech guys which are making electronic music and photography bodied I do know some tech guys that have taken up electronic music and photography yep but that's why we advocate for Nürburgring, bodybuilding, MMA, MMA, long distance rifle shooting, watchmaking, most dangerous game. Car collecting even, even if you don't want to drive the cars fast, just collect the sailing alone across the Pacific Ocean. That's right. These are hobbies that will differentiate you if

you're looking for something. You're not gonna become glorious and remembered in the trenches of EDM and photography. Carve your own Mount Rushmore in the Marin Highlands. Yes, I agree. Just do it. Someone says, wanna go bouldering?

And Gabe says, I will not do this. Very popular hobby. But yeah, get out there, get deep in some rabbit holes on YouTube, find an obscure hobby. And that's really, really deep. Watch collecting, go to Bezel, start collecting watches. It's much better than photography. Anyway, Lansier Enga says,

you think cursor's growth is crazy? There's a company in this YC batch that hit $50 million in annualized profit in two months. What do you think, Jordy? Annualized profit, like it. It's a weird, weird stat, right? Yeah, because you could just. What if you have a bunch of caffex?

Because if you're making that much money, you should probably hire and scale the team and then sort of spend, you know, like, I don't know. Yeah, Annualized profit. It's like, did you make, is that like one good day? It'd also be hilarious if it was, yeah, it was one day, one hour, no payroll. Expenses hit. It was exactly. Yeah. Nothing. Your per profit that day. I mean, it's still impressive. It's impressive. I'm sure. I'm sure it's a great company, but, uh, it is, it is funny that we're now talking about annualized profit, which is not really a thing. Cash balance over time is what matters.

But if you're making so much profit and you need to manage your expenses, you gotta go to ramp.com. Time is money, save both. Easy to use corporate cards, bill payments, accounting and a whole lot more all in one place. I really hope that YC Company signs up for Ramp and if we meet them,

we will definitely be pitching them Ramp. Anyway. We should have an iPad where anybody that comes that we run into, we just sign them up for Ramp. Yeah. Oh, that'd be great. It's more of a public service than a sales activity, a sales motion. Yes, yes.

Let's go to Richard Crabe. Very fascinating poster. Does the poster often? Do you know this guy? John has insane podcasters high right now because we're like, this is the last post. Oh, what are you talking about? I never agreed to that.

You still have the champagne you haven't finished. Let's keep going. What do you have to do the rest of the day? Nothing, you're posting, you're podcasting. Let's keep going. Cheers to that. We literally only have six posts left. We can get through this, we're good, we're good. I'll skip some of these. Some of these are repeats too.

Stick with us folks. We'll skip. John saved the best for last. Okay. We'll skip this one. We'll skip this. This is a duplicate. Yeah. Let's just close out Richard Crape. Very interesting poster. He only pops up when something big is happening in the market. He runs a hedge fund, Numeri, and he said he woke up today wondering how Leopold Oshinbrenner's situational awareness hedge fund is doing. And so, do you know the story of Leopold Oshinbrenner?

Is that the open AI? He was an open AI. He left. He did a great podcast with Dorkesh Patel, talked about scaling laws and basically predicted that if you scale out the AGI systems, it's going to get really, really crazy, made a bunch of kind of pivots away from the traditional AI safety arguments towards kind of geopolitical relevance. The idea that these will be akin to nuclear weapons,

very controlled, but I think what Richard here is saying that Leopold's bet was that situation awareness hedge fund like go turbo long Nvidia basically, like AI is the future, and then of course things are selling off right now, and if you're levered long in video, even if it's a good bet over the very long term, it could be in a rough spot.

Timing and sizing. Exactly, exactly. And so Richard Craves, throw in some questions up on the timeline. I thought we were interesting, but good luck to Leopold. I'm a big fan of his podcast. I thought it was very interesting. Anyway, anything else you wanna cover?

I don't know if this is somebody messing around Okay, it's not this is breaking news. We got some personnel news. What is this? Somebody on the chat. Oh you're talking big game about me going to okay News Jordy's. Oh, yeah Okay. Okay. Yeah, did you finish you didn't quite finish the bottle but that's all that's all you John's done so under the number not less than 10 minutes ago he says when's the next some personnel news should be a regular segment and the answer is right now Eric Schmidt former CEO of Google is the new leader of Relativity Space. He's joining as CEO. This is 50 minutes ago.

That's incredible. And it says, I got an article here from Ars Technica. Another Silicon Valley investor is getting into the rocket business. Everybody's getting into the rocket business. We've sketched out some designs. We're exploring it. But just to get some of our own low earth orbit satellites

just to stream the show down. But apparently, he's been quite involved over the past few months, and that he's been largely been bankrolling the company since the end of October. Dangerous position to get in when you are the lifeline of the company, and the burn becomes your own personal expenses. But if anybody can afford it, it's Schmidt.

And it's not immediately clear why Schmidt is taking a hands-on approach at Relativity. But this article says, it's one of the few US-based companies with a credible path toward developing a medium lift rocket that could potentially challenge the dominance of SpaceX and its Falcon 9 rocket. So pretty wild.

Anybody that wanted the Google founders to go back to Google. He's the founder. He's a, oh. CEO. Crazy. CEO for a long time, but he was never founder of Google. That's wild. Exposed. Exposed. But granted, I was, but he was never founder of Google. That's wild.

Exposed. But granted, I was a small child in that area. I mean, clearly, he grew the company. He's a fantastic executive, but technically not a founder. But maybe that's a bull case, because Relativity has already been founded. He comes in, and if he can do what he did for Google to Relativity, it's very bullish. True. I don't know. And Google is down 5% on the news after

hours. Obviously not. No, no, it is. It is. It is. But it's because of the market. Yeah. This guy who hasn't been involved in the company for a decade. Former CEO. But that's an issue of some personnel news. Anything can happen in the market. Yeah, yeah. No, I mean, there's an argument. It's like, OK, Eric, it's so insane for Eric to join Relativity Space. And Eric's thinking is still embedded in this company.

Yeah, yeah. The company's worthless. The fact that he's choosing to go back into the CEO role and he's not going back to Google, bear case Yeah, maybe that's what you come here for the worst financial advice you've ever heard No, it's our job to give the worst advice Nobody could ever say as a joke. So nobody could ever say you guys are giving financial exactly which exactly never do Anyways fun show today. Fun show.

I will make sure john finishes the Dom. I will make sure he finishes his Dom. Cheers to you, john. Cheers. Our life's work. Icky guy. And thank you everyone for watching. We will see you tomorrow. We have some more. We have a big, big week. Big, big announcement tomorrow morning. Big announcement tomorrow

morning. If you follow us on X, get ready to repost engage, please, you'll know it when you see it. That is for sure. We'll see you tomorrow. See you tomorrow. Bye.