TBPN - Chime Climbs, Tech Titans Join Army Reserve, Meta Buys 49% of Scale AI | Joshua Steinman, Bernt Børnich, John Doyle, Emily Sundberg, Lennart Heim

Episode Date: June 13, 2025

(02:47) - Joshua Steinman, founder of Galvanick, discusses the recent Israeli airstrikes on Iran's nuclear and military facilities, highlighting the precision of modern targeting technologies and the deployment of next-generation asymmetric capabilities. He notes the significant impact on Iran's military leadership and infrastructure, emphasizing the strategic implications of such operations. Steinman also reflects on the historical context of Iran-Israel relations, tracing the shift from pre-1979 alliances to the current adversarial stance, and underscores the potential for further escalation given Iran's history of targeting U.S. interests and the presence of Iranian assets capable of asymmetric attacks. (55:51) - Bernt Bornich, CEO of 1X Technologies, discusses his lifelong passion for robotics, leading to the development of NEO, a humanoid robot designed to safely and affordably assist with everyday tasks in home environments. He emphasizes the importance of deploying robots in diverse, real-world settings to gather the necessary data for creating truly intelligent machines, highlighting that the variability of home environments provides the rich data needed for advanced AI learning. Bornich also addresses the challenges of scaling humanoid robot production, noting that while 1X has vertically integrated its manufacturing to maintain flexibility, sourcing materials like copper and aluminum in the U.S. presents logistical and cost challenges compared to China. (01:12:19) - John Doyle, founder and CEO of Cape, a privacy-first mobile network, discusses the critical vulnerabilities in global cellular networks, emphasizing their complete lack of security and the ease with which malicious actors can exploit them. He highlights the strategic decisions by China to infiltrate global telecom infrastructure through subsidized Huawei equipment, contrasting it with U.S. carriers' outsourcing practices that have led to significant security gaps. Doyle explains that Cape addresses these issues by owning all the software that runs the network, allowing for enhanced security without the need to build physical infrastructure. (01:25:54) - Emily Sundberg is a New York-based writer and director, best known for her daily business and internet culture newsletter, "Feed Me." In the conversation, she discusses her experience at Apple's WWDC, noting the enthusiasm of developers for the announced updates, and highlights the evolving fashion trends among attendees. She also shares insights into the competitive landscape of Substack, emphasizing the importance of quality content and active reader engagement for success. (01:47:01) - Lennart Heim, a researcher at the Centre for the Governance of AI, focuses on the role of computational resources in AI development and governance. He discusses the impact of China's DeepSeek model on the AI landscape, highlighting its open-source nature and cost-effectiveness, which have raised concerns about potential biases and security risks in widely accessible models. Heim also emphasizes the importance of compute governance in AI regulation, suggesting that controlling access to advanced computational resources could serve as a mechanism to enforce safety standards and prevent misuse of powerful AI systems. TBPN.com is made possible by: Ramp - https://ramp.comFigma - https://figma.comVanta - https://vanta.comLinear - https://linear.appEight Sleep - https://eightsleep.com/tbpnWander - https://wander.com/tbpnPublic - https://public.comAdQuick - https://adquick.comBezel - https://getbezel.com Numeral - https://www.numeralhq.comPolymarket - https://polymarket.comAttio - https://attio.comFollow TBPN: https://TBPN.comhttps://x.com/tbpnhttps://open.spotify.com/show/2L6WMqY3GUPCGBD0dX6p00?si=674252d53acf4231https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/technology-brothers/id1772360235https://youtube.com/@technologybrotherspod?si=lpk53xTE9WBEcIjV

You're watching TBPN. Today is Friday, June 13th, 2025. We are live from the TBPN Ultradome, the Temple of Technology, the Fortress of Finance, the Capital of Capital. We have a great show for you today. Folks, we're covering lots of stuff, taking you all over the world. We are going to touch on what's going on in Iran. You know we're not a political show, but obviously this is taken over the timeline, and we do want to understand a little bit about what's going on. So we're going to have our good friend Josh Steinman jump on, get us up to speed. We're going to run through a few posts before we bring him in. First one, apparently there's a G-wagon angle here. Have you heard this? Yes, of course. So Farras Khan, friend of the show, says, I love my G-wagons. The Mercedes-Benz G-wagon, G-class, exists largely because of Iran, specifically due to the influence and initiative of Muhammad Reza Shah Pahlavi, the Shah of Iran in the early 1970s.

Yeah, so it was built for him. Oh, yes, that's right. for the Shaw purpose built and became so popular that it became a global icon and arguably top five car fantastic car of all time

so hopefully we can move past the geopolitical conflict and get back to what matters building cool cars together in a global community they probably have some insane vintage G-wagons probably hopefully none of them were destroyed yes well it's absolute chaos in the timeline Walter Bloomberg has a quote from Trump to the Wall Street Journal.

We'll see if this is a real quote. I don't know. Attack would be great for the market because Iran will not have a nuclear weapon. The market was not responding to that right now. Michael Burry is confused. And Shane Copeland does have the market. You should be tracking Polly Market. The odds of an Israeli military strike against Iran were surging yesterday before the market

started selling off. So Polly Market was once again ahead. And so Shane says, you knew this was coming. you were checking Polymarket. That's why we're proud to partner with Polymarket because they bring you the news before it happens. That's right. Well, we will kick it over. There was some interesting activity. People were looking on chain. Pizza index. Well, that too, but, you know, people were looking on polychain, apparently a wallet on a few different occasions during Israeli strikes, like 12 hours before. People were creating accounts potentially to trade against this stuff.

So that they're doing a service for other people to understand the world a little bit better. But we're going to try and understand what's going on. So let's bring in Josh Steinman, the founder of Galvanek, to break it down for us. Thanks so much for taking the time and hopping on. How are you doing? Doing great. Doing great. Explain to us, first off, let's start with what's going on right now.

There's a lot of posts. It's really hard to make sense of all what's AI slop. There's some really striking images. I saw one crazy photo of what appeared to be a drone that went directly into a single bedroom, very, very precise. How precise are these targets? What's actually going on? What's the scale of this? Is this World War III?

And then I want to get a little bit of history from you. Yeah. So first of all, I think precision targeting is not like a new thing. I mean, even as far back as like the first Gulf War, there were reports that American cruise missiles were able to target, you know, very specific locations. like, you know, the thing that got leaked to the media was like, oh, we can hit a bedroom window with a cruise missile. And I can't speak to whether or not that's accurate. But, you know, that's over 30 years ago. So you can just think, like, things have gotten a lot better.

I think the big takeaway right here is we're seeing actual, like, next generation asymmetric capabilities being deployed. And they're being deployed in a way in which we're literally seeing them, obviously, the footage is getting leaked. there's all this reports of like Iranian missiles failing at launch. So you have like possible next generation cyber weapons being deployed. Maybe it's RFEW. You don't know. But this is like really stuff that's happening. I mean, they built drone bases supposedly inside Iran, which is wild.

Although obviously we just saw the Ukrainians do the same thing. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, I heard some report that I think a hundred suicide drones left from Iran. None of them made it to Israel. And so some defense. technology was clearly employed there to stop that. Or maybe it's just shoddy manufacturing. Who knows? Yeah. Look, the point that I make here is like you just have to hand it to the president of the United States because from his perspective, this is all just a negotiation. Like this guy's the

goat. You know, he's just like, hey, we're still open for negotiation. Like, yeah, we're going to kill half your leadership and like, we'll see you at the table in three days. Yeah. I mean, what did you think about the, you know, people were sharing around 61 days ago, I guess he, he he gave like a 60 minute kind of deadline or sorry 60 day deadline we're on day 61 this happened yeah um did you were you reading into that at all were you expecting it uh i wasn't personally expecting it but it does make sense now the question of whether or not that was directed or agreed upon or just sort of like a shelling point like the israeli looked at that date and they're like okay if we do it on this date it'll seem coherent you don't know

I think probably one of the few people who will know on the planet is the president. But it is nice because, I mean, the president is very open about what he wants. And I think, you know, for the past 20 years, our foreign policy leaders, whether it's the president or secretary of state, he sort of had this like very amateurish attitude to foreign policy. Like, oh, we're just going to play nice with everybody. And Trump is just like, no, we don't want you to have a nuclear weapon. We're 100% fine with all of these other things. we're negotiating on this and like yeah there are going to be consequences and you're literally going to see them right now okay give me a little bit of the history is it is it is it uh before we get into

history is it too early people on the timeline are calling it the one day war they're taking victory lapse and then there's the other side which is it's war war three i was seeing that a lot last night which one is it it just feels a little too early for people to be claiming victory given we don't uh know the consequences we've also had a pretty porous border for for years so i think there should be concern, you know, even at home around. Yeah. Yeah, Sun Tzu and Klaus was both right about how politics and war are essentially extensions of the same thing, right? How do you get other nations to do what you want them to do or to come to a negotiated, you know, agreement, et cetera?

So I think, you know, I don't know. I'm not even sure the degree to which, if at all, the United States is involved. What I would say is it seems like Iranian air defense systems are essentially zeroed out. So the war will go on as long as the Israelis want it to go on. And so at that point, then you create this, like, you know, interesting triangulation relationship, where the president is still offering what remains of the Iranian leadership, an olive branch. It is up to them to take it. If they don't, you know, they have to know that the Israelis essentially have the capability and intention

and the willingness to essentially just do whatever they want, including high-level leadership targets. And I think you have to imagine if you're the Iranians that, you know, you're asking what else do they have in the toolbox? Give me a little bit of the history. I think most of us are familiar with the meme of like, this is a picture of Iran before the revolution, very modern. We used to be allies. Iran used to be a massive, I think third largest GDP in the world. Used to be an ally of Israel, by the way. You know, just talk about like weird turnabouts.

Crazy. So walk me through kind of the story of like how we got to this point. Yeah. So obviously there's a lot here and I would encourage people to do their own research. Lots of great books and I'm by no means an expert's expert, although I have been working, was working in this area for at this point, almost two decades. So yeah, there was a revolution in Iran to push back against leaders that the United States and the UK supported. and wanted to remain in power. And the main flip there was they went from essentially a capitalist democracy to a communist theocracy, more or less.

I mean, you know, the Shah of Iran was essentially, and, you know, he's still here, you could say, I think he lives in Los Angeles. So more of a, I'd say more of a capitalist monarchy. Sure. You know, you'd have to go into the full details of how the government was architected. It was very compatible with Americans. interesting that he landed in the land of the G-wagon. Is it a coincidence?

The car that not a coincidence at all, I would imagine. He brought in here. Okay. So, you know, there was pushback. There were elections. There was a lot of, you know, foment. The government essentially fell. And then there was sort of a second revolution that happened shortly thereafter,

where the hardline Shia Islamic Theacrots came to Bauer. So the first, you know, the first sort of situation happens where there's this, you know, not failed election, but an election where the government is not reified, I guess you could say. I'm just trying to like compress all of us down. So, you know, a lot of unrest. And then the Islamic revolution comes to power in a bond. Hostage crisis, obviously. A lot of things happen for folks that don't know. You could check out how, yes, they took Americans.

hostage that were at the embassy during this revolution that was in 1979 again a lot of dense history here 400 days yeah long like it was a long hostage crisis 400 days like that's really in many and it happened alongside the the presidential election campaign um for jimmy carter he lost Reagan one famously the um the Iranians didn't let the hostages go at the same time there was a failed hostage rescue attempt that has very interesting history into the architecture of the U.S. Department of Defense, U.S. Special Operations Command comes out of that failed here, known as Desert 1. So, yeah, a lot of history there. I think for folks that are not really tuned in on this, the thing that I would say is, you know, the Iranians were very active in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

They're explosively formed penetrators killed hundreds of Americans. They're individual operatives who are both Iranian nationals and Iraqi nationals. Also directly responsible for the deaths of a ton of folks. This is causing some money for a long time leading the coupes force in Iraq, right? Yep. So a lot of that. And so, you know, there's a lot of bad blood. And so I'm not saying that, you know, oh, we should go to war with Iran.

I actually think let the Israelis handle it. I'd prefer we close the border. But at the same time, like, they're not good guys. You know, they've been killing Americans for a very long time in a bunch of different places. And I think you've had a lot of U.S. senior leaders, whether it's President Obama or others, try and find ways to build bridges to that government and essentially been rebuffed and then, you know, doubled down on. So it's just like, you know, no heroes. Last question from me.

Yesterday, the internet went down. Cloudflare, Google. You know, the tinfoil hat crowd is saying maybe they're linked happened. I mean, Cloudflare said this is not, we weren't attacked. We would say if we were attacked because it would be a get out of jail free card. Like it seemed like it was an issue with their key value store. What's your take? I don't know.

Obviously, you always want to wait until more facts come out. Yeah. The timing didn't see. We don't need facts. What's the hottest take? Yeah, I'm kidding. Sorry, things sometimes happen, boys. So, uh, say, lovey.

Well, do you think, do you think we'll ever, do you think we'll ever have clarity on, on the outage yesterday? It was, I think Cloudflare did a pretty good job explaining, but I don't know. Look, here's what I would say for folks that want to look to the future, like, what's the Iranian response going to be? They absolutely have, you know, how many foreign sabotage teams are operating on U.S. soil. They, they absolutely have assets here in the United States. Those assets absolutely have assets. access to asymmetric capabilities. This could be drones.

It could be like hit squads, et cetera. And I think that you'll be able to gauge the temperature by whether or not those assets start to get activated and start to then go after things here in the United States, especially because the president has been clear. Like maybe he was aware of what was going to happen, but there was no official, you know, logistical U.S. support for the Israeli operation. Like they did that themselves. You know, maybe there was some sort of like, sure, do it ever you want, you know,

permission from the United States, but you have a statement from Marco Rubio. And so I would just say, like, stay tuned. The asymmetric tools that were used against the Iranians are not, you know, unique to them. These are things that are out in the wild right now. So I'm certainly going to be paying a lot of attention to that. And for TVPN viewers, I say, that's where I'd, you know, be looking. Well, thank you for monitoring the situation on behalf of us. There's no better place to monitor the situation than from the TVPN Ultram.

That's essentially what we're doing in TVPN is monitoring. We're constantly just monitoring the situation. That's what the show is all about. Thank you so much for hopping on, Josh. We'll talk to you soon. Thanks, Josh. Cheers. Enjoy your weekend.

Well, in some good news, chime went public. 12 years ago, Kristen Green writes, the founders had a simple conviction. Americans deserve better from their banks. Chime went public with 8.6 million members, $121 billion in annual volume, and an average of 54 transactions per member per month. So congratulations to the chime team. They rung the bell.

Absolutely fantastic. Congratulations to Kirsten Green on being their first institutional backer. Great outcome. How were they trading? It's the big question. Oh, it went way up. It did very well.

the company climbed 37% in debut after $864 million IPO. Very good news. We can go into the whole story. I'd love to know a little bit more about the backstory. I'd love to see a L. I actually guess it priced at $18.4 billion originally, or that's kind of where they debuted. And now it's trading at 11.

It's down a little bit. But still, that's in the range that I think a lot of analysts were anticipating or how they felt it would be fairly valued. Well, if you love fintech, you got to get on Ramp.Ramp.com. Time is money. Save both. Easy use corporate cards, bill payments accounting, and a whole lot more, all in one place. And we have, Ramp has, Anderall as a customer, we have a fun activity today in the studio. We have Tyler Cosgrove, our intern over there.

He will be assembling a Fury drone made out of Legos that was very nicely, courteously, sent to us from the Anderil team. How you doing? Good. I'm very excited. Bring it down for us. What's the plan? The Fury andral drone. It's a group five autonomous air vehicle. So I think it's I think one 24 scale. So the real thing is I believe 20 feet long, which is like around half length of an F-16. Okay. But yeah, there's how many pieces are in here? When's the last time you put together a Lego set? I was probably 12. Okay. So okay. It's been. like eight years.

So a few years ago. I'm feeling pretty good. I don't know who has the current record on the, you know, the speed run of this. Yes, I think you can set the world record. I think it might be like Palmer's kids, but I believe they're pretty young. Yeah, they are. So I think I should have some advantage. You're going to smoke them.

Yeah, you're going to smoke them. Okay, so we're going for a world record. We're not doing any percent here. We're doing 100 percent. We're doing glitchless. I don't want to see any, any cheats employed over there. Yeah. We're going to be tracking the timer.

Production team's going to start a timer. I don't know if we're going to be able to put it on the screen, but we will. be tracking him so on your marks gets that do we wait wait wait do we want to do we want to have any like consequences like fantasy football oh yes yes I have I have something for you I think it's in my car I have if you can do it under how how long do you think it's gonna take him I mean I I think if you can do it the reward should be under under 30 minutes 20 minutes 20 minutes that's under 30 under 30

if you can do it under 30 I have an anderil t-shirt And it's shareholder worn. It's a shareholder worn Anderall jersey. Wow. That's powerful. Yeah. Yeah.

Worn by a shareholder. I bet we could get it signed. We could get it signed. By Luke Metro. So it's extra large. I don't know if it'll fit you, but you will win an Anderral t-shirt. If you can do it in under 30 minutes on your marks, get set.

Go. Start your engines. Send it. Send it. He's going to be working on that while the show goes on. We're going to be bringing you the news, break it down. It looks pretty complicated. 600 pieces.

We will see how he does. Okay, we will be checking in with him over the next half hour, over the next hour, letting you know how it goes. Anyway, let's read through some of this chime. Let's tell you about Figma first. Figma.com, think bigger, build faster.

Figma helps design and development teams build great products together. If golden retrievers could design software, they would use Figma. Absolutely. It's the official design tool. Chime Financial rose 37% in its trading debut.

after pricing its shares above the marketed range to raise $864 million in the year's sixth biggest US IPO. That's great. The fintech firm shares opened at $43 after selling for 27 in the IPO, and they've been kind of trading around since then. Yeah, they're sitting at $34 a share at this point. So down 6% today. Still up from 27, which is great.

Accounting for employee stock options and restricted stock options. and restricted stock units, Chime has a fully diluted value of about 15.8 billion based on filings with the U.S. SEC. That fully diluted value is a sharp drop from the $25 billion valuation in a 2021 funding round at the peak of the tech boom. And so we've seen a lot of these companies that had higher marks during the zero interest rate era, but of course interest rates have gone up. That affects the value of future cash flows. It affects the value of tech companies in particular. But it's still important to get out, get liquidity, even if If it's not at the high mark, your LPs, you can distribute.

They can choose what to do with it. Maybe they hold because we've seen a lot of companies that go out at below the previous peak, but then they grind up because they have a lot to build up. And this isn't a situation where it's a company that's sneaking out at a $4 billion, you know, SPAC or something. This is a true IPO in the tens of billions still seems pretty solid. Yeah. And there are still so many private neobanks that this is a very important sort of reality check. on the market to understand how how the market, you know, the post-Serp era is really going to

value these. There was another one that got out. I think there was called Dave. I'm actually curious to see how. Oh, I know Dave. I know the founder. You know the founder? We've had, Dave is David, Dave grinded up at one point they were. So we had, we had one of the founders on the show. He's working on that new Chrome. Oh, that was from Honey. Honey. Honey worked with another guy. So at Dave. Two years ago, John, him John Waller. Dave was valued at $5. a share. Yes. Today it is valued at $200 a share.

Wow. Wait, what's the, what's the market cap? So the market cap today is 2.78 billion. So it traded down. It was basically, wait,

wait, sorry, say the market cap again. 2.78 billion. 2.7 billion. Wow. Yeah, it was down at like 30 million or something.

And it was crazy because they had like 100 million in cash on the balance sheet. And I know someone who's a significant shareholder in that company. And it was like, it was like a really rough roller coaster because at one point it was worth a ton and then it was worth nothing and then it was back up.

Yeah, so it's still down 33% from its IPO. But it's in a solid place to actually build back up. So wow, what a roller coaster. What a ride. And you had to been very, I mean, very, very different businesses. But ultimately, if you were a Chime investor, watching Dave in the public markets was not very fun. So the CEO of Chime said, we don't focus on short-term fluctuation in the stock, even if it goes up today. I'm sure there's going to be other days that won't be as great.

Fact check, true. We remain focused on the long term. So the investors in Chime that are making money off this, DST Global, we know some folks over there. Crossland Capital Access Industries General Atlantic, Menlo Ventures, Cathay Innovation, iconic, and it sounds like Kirsten Green as well. Over at Foreman. Kirsten led the seed round of Chime. Sean Carolyn, a Menlo Ventures partner and Chime board member, said he's relieved.

There was a reprieve in the markets following the terrorist. if induced volatility in April, that IPO window closed. We grubed it back open the IPO window. I was thinking it would be very interesting to see a president run on a platform of just keeping the IPO window open permanently, mandating that it's open. Yeah, yeah. We should, you know, normally I'm sort of against a big government, you know, intervening with the market.

But in this case, I think sort of mandating that the IPO should always be open. It should always be open. You're really on something here, John. You've always been very presidential, but I like where you're going with this. It would be bipartisan, I think. It's sort of like the opposite of the freeze the rent guy. Yes, yes, yes. Freeze the IPO window open.

Freeze it open. All capital markets were like, holy cow, what does this mean? Carolyn said, noting that chime delayed its IPO. The company's strong debut Thursday indicates how that now the markets are healthy. Yeah. Since so a lot of people are very happy about that, they've never taken their eye off the mission. Yeah, I'm surprised. attempted to chase the new shiny object.

Very good. What are you surprised me? Yeah. Oh, I was going to say, you know, we'll see if Chime, depending on what happens in Iran, the market might see that positively if Chime could enter, you know, bring neobanking to Iran. That would be amazing. Well, I'm surprised by how. At iconic says they've never taken their eye off the mission.

They were never tempted to chase the shiny new object. and yeah, they've seemed to be just... Look at this murderers row of IPO underwriters. You got Morgan Stanley, you got Goldman Sachs, you got J.P. Morgan and 11 other banks worked on the offering. Let's hear it for investment banking. They don't get enough credit, you know, investment banks. They just work tirelessly.

If the stock pops, they're getting parades. For the analysts that stayed up all night working on this IPO. Anyway, Chimes Marketing includes a deal with the NBA's Dallas Mavericks for its logo to appear on the team's jerseys. Pretty cool. Pretty cool. It's great. Anyway, let's tell you about Vanta. Vanta automate compliance, manage risk, prove trust, continuously. Vanta's trust management platform takes the manual work out of your security and compliance process and replaces it with continuous automation, whether you're pursuing your first framework or managing a complex program. Anyway, moving on. Big news, a whole bunch

of tech leaders are now officially in the army. The reserves. The reserves. The reserve. Palantir, Shamsankar, joined the Army Reserves today. He broke it down in the free press. Also, Boz from META jumped in, honored to accept a direct commission as a lieutenant colonel in the U.S. Army Reserve as part of the newly formed Detachment 201, the Army's executive innovation corps, together with Shamsankar, Kevin Wheel, and Bob McGrew. Our primary role will be to serve as technical experts advising the Army's modernization efforts. to the Secretary of the Army. They're very dedicated to bringing in technology and modernizing the entire fighting force. Very exciting.

And it's awesome that these tech leaders and executives can get in there and start having an impact. So very, very exciting. Baas says, I have accepted this commission in a personal capacity because I am deeply invested in helping advance American technological innovation. Nerdsnipe. Anyone care to venture a guess on why we called our detachment 201? 201. That's got to be an HTTP thing, right?

HGTP 201. It's a personnel file in the Intel community. Oh. I think it's an HTTP reference. So HTTP 201 created status code indicates that the HTTP request has resulted in the creation of a new resource. I don't know. That's my guess. Let me know what you think.

HTTP status code 201 means created according to at Poker Chessman. man. That sounds like what it would be. Well, out with 404s, in with the 201's. Congratulations to everyone involved. Bob McGrew says this evening, I will become an officer in the Army, U.S. Army Reserve, as part of Detachment 201, the Army's Executive Innovation Corps. I'm proud to have the opportunity to serve.

Shamsankar also says our mission is to help the Army transform for future missions and adopt bleeding edge tech. America wins when we unite the dynamism of American innovation with the military's vital. mission. This was our, this was the key to our triumphs in the 20th century. It can help us win again. Shom came on the show. We told us about the dollar a year men. You remember this? Yeah. Yeah. Talking about executives in business who could not, they could not be paid, they had to be paid a salary. They couldn't work for free. Right. To be. Yeah. To help with the war effort during World War II. And some of them worked incredibly hard pivoting, manufacturing lines to you're making cars. Now you're

making jeeps and tanks. And they worked really hard. They made a dollar a year because they legally had to make money. You got to make something. Yeah, this is good where you live in an unstable world. We want our brightest technologists to be allies and a part of our defense efforts. Maybe we should get the Army on linear. It's a purpose-built tool for planning and building products.

Meet the system for modern software development. Streamline issues, projects, product roadmaps. They're linear for agents, you know. I don't think that was their original intention. but it would anywhere you're building software, you should be using linear. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I should really join the Army Reserve

and just be pitching SaaS products the entire time. Just forward-deployed BDR. Yeah. Yeah, you do a great job. I don't really know that much about implementing this stuff, but I can sell it. Yeah. I'm just like, hey, we're trying to have a meeting about, you know, modernization.

Not now, John. And I'm like, well, sales tax on numeral? What about that? If you put it on autopilot. Anyway, congrats to Polymarket. They're putting up massive numbers in terms of visits in May. Yeah, so they pulled data from similar web in May. Robin Hood is sitting at 37.1 million hits.

Coinbase at 34.7. Polymarket in third. So I think they're just pulling all the finance. Finance and like kind of new, like these all lean like newer startup investing markets. But cracking at 7 million, pump fun at 5 million. I would have assumed pump fun would be massive. I mean, 5 million is nothing to shape. I think crypto is still niche.

It's still niche. But yeah, the, the, call she at one. I see this, you know, the reason that we were originally excited to partner with Polly Market is that it's an alternative to traditional news.

It's a way to understand the headlines of the future today or at least get, you know, odds against them. And so I think this signals that a lot of people are just going to Polly Market to understand the world.

So congratulations to the whole team. Yep. This was an interesting post by friend of the show. Casey Hanmer. I had no idea. It's a little bit dark, but he's talking about the ISS's structural

integrity's quoting post from Christian Davenport, who says the Axiom four mission is postponed indefinitely while NASA and Roscomos investigate a leak on the Russian side of the international space station. And so Casey says,

the ISS's structural integrity is far more marginal than is being publicly discussed. We are having multiple and increasingly frequent leaks from heavily fatigued node segments in the Russian section. John? Yes.

This screams like the plot of a sci-fi movie. It really does. It's coming from the Russian section. It's crazy. Yikes. When aluminum gets flexed, it fatigues and gets harder, increasing its tendency to crack. Cracks concentrate forces of their tips and spread over time.

Multiple cracks have been discovered. There is no factor of safety associated with this failure mode. None of the structural pressure vessels are meant to track. We are not even single fault tolerant on the structural integrity of the station. We could wake up tomorrow and find that with zero warning, it has failed catastrophically. Whether that means a leak slow enough to close some hatches, get the crew out, or at least into safer parts of the station, it's a roll of the dice. It could also depressurize in less than a minute. And Elon Musk says there are potentially serious concerns about the long-term safety of the international space station.

Some parts of it are simply getting too old, and obviously that risk grows over time. Even though SpaceX earns billions of dollars from transporting astronauts and cargo to the ISS, I nonetheless would like to go on record recommending that it be deorbited within two years. Striking, very interesting. We got to put up a new one. We got to put up 10 of these. I know that they don't have that much economic value. Space yachts, John.

Yes, yes, we need a dozen more ISS. I know that it's so expensive. I think it's one of the most. expensive man-made objects ever built. Although maybe Stargate will beat it out. I seem to remember the ISS being, costing a total of $100 billion. The thing with Stargate is it's a project

that's happening across states. So it's hard to say that it's the most expensive object. Oh, much like the ISS's different modules put together. Oh. Oh. Kind of similar. We can fit the ISS in a large enough warehouse. Yes, yes, yes.

And fit Stargate is a series of warehouses. We have to have a human, a human rated space station. It's just, we have to have a space station. It's just so important. I would like to see an Elon megaproject. I like that. There's that website. There's that website.

There's that website. How many humans are in space? Have you seen this? Humans are in space right now. Who is in space? com. There are 13 humans in space right now. Who is in space?

The ISS Crew 10 launched March 14th, 2025. There's four people. there's the Soyuz. There's crazy. Johnny Kim's up there. You know, wait, no way. You know Johnny Kim, right? No. Oh, Johnny Kim is a legend. So Johnny Kim. Oh, yeah. This is the guy who's the go. Yes, he's done everything.

He's scimaxing. Yes. So he was a Navy SEAL. He's a doctor and he's also an astronaut. And the whole meme is like his parents are finally, are finally like proud of it. Because he did everything. But it's like, I'm sure they're still. Johnny Kim is the best. We should get him on the show from space up there for 66. He's going to meet some people over there. days.

And then Tian Gong space station, the Chinese space station, has three astronauts on it, and then another three from a different mission. And so there's six over there, and then there's seven on the ISS. And so we got 13. We need more. I'd like to see. We need to be bringing this exponentially. I'd like to see them doing more like Kai Sinat, like live streaming daily.

Yes, totally. I'm sure they get a little lonely and bored. It's a content problem. They got to be marketing. Everyone's like, oh, you're running some scientific experiment. When are we going to do the paper? That's boring. No, like, thank you for the, thank you for the $5.

Exactly. Thank you for the $5. They're like doing impressions and stuff like that. If you donate 100, they'll squeeze the washcloth and show how the water, you know, sticks around. Let's check in on Tyler. Let's see how he's doing. How we doing, Tyler?

How we do we do in? Update. He's our black and the table's black. Oh, no. It's quite hard to see. Okay. I don't know how far I am. Okay.

Good luck. time I'm at, but... He's at 15 minutes? Okay. Okay. I can do it. I can do it. Okay.

Keep going. Keep going. He's working. He's working. Anyway, let's... We're releasing recap videos now. Roughly a one-hour recap video of everything that happened on TBPN this entire week. We know we put out a lot of content for you.

This week we'll be recapping WWDC. Apple released liquid glass. It was a little bit controversial. We talked to people that were... very optimistic about the new design direction. I think people settle down and they're kind of thinking to themselves. All right, this thing might be pretty nice looking.

It's probably will get pretty good and we'll all move on. And they'll probably transition well to VR and other platforms. Yeah. It also tied really well to Apple's kind of retreat. Ben Thompson wrote about this. Apple is turning over the reins to developers to develop some new AI applications. So we're very optimistic about that. We also had our intern, Tyler Cosgrove.

He's making Legos right now. But on Monday, we had him assemble the first American iPhone from scratch. And by scratch, I mean seven pieces that he had to kind of glue together. But he did it. It was way more, it did him some credit. It was way more than seven. Maybe 12. But it was fantastic.

We had Andrew Huberman on the show. That was fantastic. That's great. We got to talk to him about what's going on with NIH budgeting. The proposal is that research funding will drop by 40%. We tried to dig into what pieces of the research budget should we keep, how, what is the dynamic between the different types of research that are funded? And he really broke it down for us on the back of his four-hour interview with Dr. J.

Badacharya, who is the current NIH director. That was a very fun interview. We also went to a Y Combinator Demo Day 2025. We were live from San Francisco. We talked to dozens of teams, dozens of founders. We talked to high school dropouts, college dropouts. Tons of AI agents, about 90% of the new YC class is AI driven. But we had a bunch of interesting conversations.

We also talked to some venture capitalists there. And we shot a lot of confeder. We were all the hard tech founders. We did not see many of them. There were a few. But we mostly got AI deep dives. They were among us. And then we also discussed the meta and scale acquisition or investment.

Meta is investing something like 15 billion. billion dollars the deal actually just closed today and so we had commentary from a number of founders and and pundits and journalists and also venture capitalists talking about the nature of that deal and how it came together and so we hope you enjoy this this week's recap and it gives you it gives you a good overview we're one away from being seven days a week yes we're very close we also have a great show for you today we're having we already had josh on the show but we have 1X is coming on to talk about humanoid robots. We got Emily Sunberg coming on.

The fantastic writer of the newsletter Feed Me. We have John Doyle from Cape building a new cellular network. There's a lot to talk about there. And then we have someone from the RAND Corporation coming on, which would be very fun. And so we will go back to the timeline, back to what people are talking about in the news. More updates on what's going on in New York. Zoron Mamdani is surging, continues to surge in the public. polls and seems to be doing very well in the debates, but is not popular on tech Twitter because

he says capitalism is theft. The quote is taxation isn't theft. Capitalism is. So Ron Mamdani could soon be mayor of the finance capital of the world. Incredible. It is a very odd choice for a city that is known for capitalism and finance. Finance. And yeah, we will see how this one evolves. It is already a case study in marketing. It is. Signal called this out earlier this week that he's just laser focused on a few key lines and it is resonating with some. Certainly not our corner or our audience of capital enthusiasts. Well, if you're capital enthusiast, head over to public.com investing for those who take it seriously, they got multi-asset investing, industry leading yields and they're trusted by millions. Let's go to Pavel.

Pavel says, Pavel Asper Ruhav says, traditional company structure is falling apart. Pretty much every organization should be structured in three parts. People who sell things, people who do things, people who automate things. Everything else is just fat. Very interesting. Sellers, doers, automators. How would you?

I would, I think this is, I mean, great insight ultimately resonates, but people who make things, that people who sell things, people who make things, people automate things. People do things. Do things is just doing things. Yeah, yeah, that is interesting that there's not, yeah, the doing things part of this is the most vague, but maybe that's management and strategy and deciding what to do in the organization. But I do like the reframing as like, yeah, some people sell things. Yes.

Yeah, yeah, maybe making things is better. But again, the automation thing seems like an. interesting twist on a traditional engineering organization. As the role of the software engineer changes, it becomes more about automating any type of business process. And I think the role of the software engineer is definitely growing in scope. It's not, it's vibe coding an internal tool using cursor, retool, or all the different softwares that are available. It's also buying off the shelf or bringing in off the shelf software to automate processes. And the, the leverage of the software engineer leads to just massive automation across the entire company.

The selling things is very, is very interesting because even though that is automated in some ways, it increasingly relies on... What's automated about a steak dinner. Exactly. On interpersonal relationships and communication. And so that has definitely carved itself out as a unique function within the modern an organization. But yes, I think the people who do things

could be build, could be make things, but could also be define the strategy and build the company. But if you want to automate things, put your sales tax on autopilot with numeralhq.com. Spend less than five minutes per month on sales tax compliance. Just get on there.

And if you're one of those people that sells things. Yeah, and if you're one of those people that sells things, get on Adio, customer relationship magic. Adio is the AI Native CRM that builds, scales and grows your company to the next level. It is the backbone of our high velocity guest program. It is. Chimov had a hilarious post that I really enjoyed.

He says, well, this is probably one of the funnier things I've done, but my friend and Somalié and I got a California liquor license and started a wine collective with our license. It allows us to buy wine directly from vintners, get wholesale pricing, buy and house entire collections of wine. We didn't do this just for us, but created it to allow our friends to participate as well. At some point, we may open it up to the world at large. If you love wine, want access to the best wines and avoid retail markups. This may be a fit. The team charges for shipping and handling, but otherwise pass through the raw cost to our members. Right now,

we're saving 15 to 40 percent per bottle, depending on the winery slash vintage. We call it Drink With Me. We also create quarterly capsules of the best wines Josh and I have drank. and allow members to buy in quantity. The first box is below. So it seems like he's like on the cusp of launching like a D to C wine company. But I mean this is a wine membership wine club. There's thousands of these people love them. I think it makes sense for Chimoth's creator evolution.

Yeah, yeah. I mean in terms of his brand, like he, you know, like. Always drinking wine on all in. All in alone and just casually dropping, you know, a little note about drink with me or whatever wine he's drinking can probably drive this to 10,000 plus subscribers. I completely agree. The creator market fit here is fantastic. Powerful.

Very fun. And if you zoom in and says, drink with me, a curated wine collective by Chamoth, Poly Hopatia and Somalié, Joshua Plack. It looks great. And congrats. I mean, he has a passion for wine. He's expressing it in a business. You love to see it.

It's great. We talked a little bit about this. this, but we didn't get back into this. Scott Belski came on the show this week, talked about the data wars, and there's new reporting from the information. Salesforce is blocking enterprise AI rivals like Gleen from using Slack data for their applications. This was a big issue back in 2012 with this idea that you had all this data in Facebook, you had all this data in Google, you had all this data with Apple, and you could not, even though every one of those companies would tell you it's not our data it's your data you can take it with you it's yours you own your data

people would say okay that's great google i'd like to give all of my data to facebook because i want better i want better ads on facebook and facebook i want to give all my data to google so that when i go in my gmail i can search my friends list and both companies would be oh no no no no no no we don't trust the other company it's your data you can export it through this like c sb zip file that you have to download every time. But we're not just going to let an API link these two services. Absolutely not. Because the walled garden must be maintained. Yes. And it's like, oh, oh, it's a beautiful garden. You have to appreciate the beauty of the garden. It's my data. Then then I can, you know, integrate my I message with my Android friends.

Like, oh, no, no, you couldn't possibly do that. And, and, and I mean, these big tech companies, they have, they have reasonable, uh, uh, arguments for it, but it, but it always has been funny. And now it's more important than ever. And so Scott says anticipated and referred to as the impending data wars in previous editions of implications, that's this newsletter that you should go subscribe to, but didn't expect to start this quickly. Data grab and protectionism underway, especially by those that don't own their own graphs

or sophisticated permissioning layers. And so, yeah, there's this big question. Open AI is launching deep research. It integrates with Gmail and Google Docs. That's going to be fantastic. If they cut that off entirely and they get cut off, that might be something that actually drives enterprise adoption of Google's Gemini deep research project, right? Because if we have a whole bunch of documents

in Google Drive and we want someone to be able to run a deep research report around all of our internal documentation, which obviously they would want to do, and Google successfully cuts off OpenAI, like, you're just going to have to go there or else it's going to be a hassle of like, okay, I guess download all of our PDFs from Google Drive and then feed them into chat GPT one at a time. Like, no one's going to do that. The friction is going to be so high. even if you can download your data, like it needs to be there over an API. And so Salesforce has taken the first shot in the Data Wars

and we'll be tracking it here on the show. Shots fired. For the next forever. Yeah, I mean, this was a very timely call out from Scott on the show. Yes, it was. Well, if you're losing sleep over the data wars, you've got to get on an eight sleep.

Go to eight sleep. Go to eightsleep.com slash tbpn, get an eight sleep. How do you sleep last night, Jordy? I'm on a generational run, put up huge numbers last night. I think I got you beat this whole week across. I think it's tied up. Monday, 91, Tuesday, 86. Wednesday was on the road.

Doesn't count. Thursday, 91. Friday, 95. Wow. Let's hear it for me. I got completely mugged. Oh, soundboard not working. I was expecting some clapping, but the soundboard must be broken.

Oh, there we go. That's for you, John. That's my favorite. I'm happy for you. I'm happy for you. Okay. Yeah. You just throw up an excuse.

I'm sure you have a good excuse. Yeah, it's fine. Let me hear it. Let me hear the excuse. It actually was funny. I woke up a little late this morning because my son crawled into bed and basically pushed me so far off the edge of the bed that the eight sleep alarm, the vibration alarm. Was waking him up?

He didn't even wake up. He was just sleeping like a rock, but I was just feeling it like very faintly. Yeah, yeah. My son hops in the bed after I leave and I use the warm-up alarm from 8's sleep, which is fantastic. It really makes it to get out of bed. But he loves it because he's like, oh, it's so warm. And he just gets like, he sleeps like an extra two hours because he likes it really warm. Yeah.

So he enjoys my post-alarm side of the bed, enjoys that. Very sweet. Anyway, let's go back to the Army's newest recruits, tech executives from Meta, OpenAI, and Moore, The Wall Street Journal was covering it. Executives from Meta, Palantir, and Open AI are joining a new Army Innovation Corps, bringing tech upgrades to the military. The tech reservists will serve 120 hours a year, so two hours, a little over two hours a week, as lieutenant colonels advising on AI and commercial tech acquisition.

Very exciting. And so I like this from Boz, Andrew Bosworth, over at Meta. He says, it's possible I watched too much top gun. He's 43, standing more than six foot two. Happens to the best of us. It does. You can never watch too much Tof Gun. Come on, Boss.

It's an amazing movie. He was told he was too tall to realize his youthful ambitions of flying an F-16 fighter jet. Did that happen to you too? It was never even in the conversation. I remember seeing a movie in like about the Vietnam War when I was like 13 and it was very obvious that I was never going to make it in the military. But there was someone from my high school and I do have a family member who, flying F-16s and it seems like it's a it's a wonderful program and still's incredibly you really have to be a very specific specimen to be a pilot yeah I I

did flight lessons as a kid and I was in the civil the civil what's it called Civil Air Patrol and they I was really worried as a kid I wanted to be a pilot and I was worried that my eyesight would degrade because you can't you can't have glasses you can't have LASIC or anything like that you just got to have perfect eye site you've got to be very specific height and anyways yeah um bosworth went on to say there's a lot of patriotism that has been under the covers that i think is coming to light in the valley i completely agree um they will be uh sworn in as uniformed officers in a public ceremony on friday the day before the army's 250th birthday happy birthday to the army happy birthday uh less than a decade ago even working on technology

that might be used in defense, never mind suiting up for service, was anathema in Silicon Valley. The new reserve program reflects how the relationship between the Pentagon and the tech industry has deepened. Meta and OpenAI adjusted their policies to work more with the military last year, although Meta is not technically a defense contractor right now. They are a supplier to a defense contractor with their annual partnership. A little bit of confusion there. That story went out and it was so fast. A lot of people didn't understand they're not of an official military contract.

at this point. Although, I would love if they were. Palantir has been involved in national security work for two decades. It has an AI and data project with the Army worth potentially more than $1 billion. For the Army, the deepening ties can prepare for it for wars of the future. They are expected to be waged in part with ground robots and drones and rely on networks of sensors and artificial intelligence to coordinate it all. I mean, looking at the conflict from yesterday in Iran. that feels like in many ways the future of warfare.

Yep. Zero troops deployed. Yep. And, you know, absolute devastation. Well, speaking of robots, we're going to have the founder of 1X on the show in just five minutes. But in the meantime, let me tell you that ad quick, out-of-home advertising made easy and measurable. Say goodbye to the headaches of out-of-home advertising. Only ad-quick combines technology, out-of-home expertise and data to enable efficient, seamless ad-buying across the globe.

Go to ad-quick.com. Anyway, Shams Sankar took to the free press to write a little bit of a, I guess this is an op-ed or a little article about his experience. He says, I am the CTO of Palantir. Today, I joined the army. He says, my father grew up in a mud hut in India. America gave him and me a life. Now technologists like me need to give back. Oh, this is heartwarming.

Fantastic article. Does he have a gigachad filter on here? I love the best, the best. This is this is your new bit. If you need a bit going into the weekend, if you see a picture of your of your absolute boy, and they don't, and they clearly, you know, just a casual filter, accuse them of using a gigajad filter.

I mean, I mean. He looks like he's in shape. Yeah. Let's leave that without bringing out the glazinator 3,000. Later today. Triple glaze. Receiving their commissions on my side will be some of the most progressive minds in the world of technology.

Kevin Wheel, the chief product officer at OpenAI, Andrew Bosworth, Boss, the chief technology officer at Meta and Bob McGrew, formerly the chief research officer at OpenAI and engineering director at Palantir. None of these men need to pad their resumes. None of them have free time between fatherhood demanding day jobs and a dozen other demands. Are they all dads? Let's hear for fatherhood. Let's go.

Let's go. I mean, we got 50% of this group on the show already. We got it. We got to finish it out. We were close with Bob. We almost overlapped at some event. We're going to make it happen. We almost caught him at Figma config.

We're going to get him on the show. Let's make it happen. A decade ago, it would have been unthinkable for so many tech heavyweights to openly align with the U.S. military. Equally, it would have been out of character for the military to enlist the support of the nation's business elite, much less create a special core

that they could deploy their technical talents in service of the government. But a sea change has taken place. Wars in Europe and Middle East, and above all, the threat of war in the Pacific have focused the national, mind and initiated a scramble for mobilization. Exploding pagers and long-distance drone strikes from shipping containers prove that technology has once again changed the battlefield. Our military

has to change with it. The Army's Executive Innovation Corps, under the direction of the Army's chief of staff, General Randy George, who has been on the show, is part of a larger effort by our military to transform the way it prepares for and fights wars in the 21st century, marrying the nation's most innovative private companies with our most important, military missions is fundamental to that effort. That cooperation relies on reviving a sense of duty in an American elite that has become disconnected from our nation and its tradition of service. Let's check in with our intern and his tradition of service. How is it going, Tyler? Servicing his Lego. He's 75% of the way there. This is much harder than I thought.

Well past 30 minutes. Okay, well, consolation prize. We've got to start thinking of the punishment. You don't get a prize for I actually I have a really I have a really good one What is it? I have a really good one I know what you're thinking of And it's actually a bit no you don't you actually don't okay Because I was going to give this to you as a gag

The thing that I'm imagining would be a gag gift for you Okay But now it's going to I'm going to sort of Flip it around It convert it into a punishment for Tyler Are you going to drop it right now? What is it? It's on the way here it's on the way here

It was in the car and Ben's going to drop it here in the next few minutes. We might have to wait until after the next guest, but you can look forward to that. Yeah, yeah, we didn't tell you, but if you'd been able to get it done in 10 minutes, we would have gotten you a fantastic new watch on Bezell. We had our finger hovering over the Patechfalon,

but that's kind of out of the window. Would you have worked faster, Tyler, if you knew that? You knew that there was a novelist. You should have told me. On the board, your Bezell Concierge is available now to source you any watch on the planet. It'll have to be next time. But in the meantime, if you're listening, you can go to getbezzle.com. We should treat this Lego set as sort of something that he can kind of iterate against.

You know, like you don't just do a Rubik's Cube once. You try to do it faster, et cetera. And so I think we should give Tyler another crack at the Nautilus. Yes. And now that he's dialed in, he should be able to do it a lot faster. Dylan, why don't you bring this up for a second? Okay, this is the potential punishment. What are we doing here, Joe?

I was going to give this to you, John, because you're a horse-sized human. These are the Apple Decks, Apple-flavored, electrolytes for horses. You would play the horse prices? It's from horse health products. Horse-held products. It's a 40-day supply for all classes of horses. Show it to the single. And I'm just going to go out, Tyler, your punishment is you have to finish this before your internship ends.

this summer. It's totally safe for humans. It is. It's 40-day supply for a regular horse. Okay. Let's see how long it takes you. You got to see how long you get through it. Anyway, so you have this waiting for you after the show. And we can do something if you finish the next one, the next iteration, if you do it in 30 minutes, maybe you don't have to have it, but you might try it and discover that you actually love it. So we'll see. Okay. Tyler's still working on that. We'll check in with him. He does have two hours. We have another. hour of guests coming into the studio. We have 1X coming up next, talking about humanoid robots.

But, and I'm excited for this. They've had a, they've had a massive week. And I have a ton of questions about, about humanoid robots. The biggest question is, is data that seemed to real gap. There was, there was something percolating in my mind related to the Alex Wang acquisition, the scale AI acquisition of meta, because robotics data is so difficult. get, maybe Scaly and I would play in that market. We'll see where that develops. But in the meantime, let's bring in the founder of OneX and start talking to him about humanoid robots.

How you doing? There he is. What's happening? Welcome to the show. Good. Good. Thanks for having me. Fantastic. Yeah. Give us some context on your background on OneX and Neo and then we'll just get into a bunch of different questions. I was about to tell John, Neo was actually blessed by Lil B, the base God. a while ago, much like Timothy Shalomei was before the generational run. So it's very possible that Neo is on a similar run itself. I'm very excited. So anyways, great to have you on, Burt.

And yeah, give us, give us some color. Awesome. No. And I think like, hey, hey, Neo. Whoa, hey, Neo. Wow. That's convenient. I do think there has to be something serious, right?

It's been going pretty well lightly. lately. So we have been blessed. Okay. You've clearly made one. How many, how many have you made of these things? It's about 100. A hundred. Wow. Okay. Different versions though, right? They're not still all operational. Like we're very quickly cycling through hardware revisions to ensure we actually get to the launch by end of year. So we do quickly deprecate them as new ones come out. Sure. What does launch mean? You want to be able to sell these to companies? This is business to business, business to consumer. I've seen them on streams. They seem like kind of just like companions.

It's less industrial. But what's your thesis for the early adopter here? Yeah, let me just jump in straight into it. So who am I? Who's the company? What are we doing? Why are we doing this? Yeah.

So I'm well, I'm burnt. I'm the founder. CEO. Come to this from a robotics background. I've been on this journey all my life. I picked apart all of my mom's kitchen appliances since they had motors when I was a kid. Always liked building stuff programming. Started one X 10 years ago.

like the mission stayed pretty constant. We want to create an abundance of artificial labor. And we're doing this through creating these intelligent machines that can live and learn among us. And the last part is so important. I think what really differentiates one X from the rest of the pack here is the focus on making robots that are safe among people. And that are very affordable. But first principles engineering, how do you make something that's like super lightweight, doesn't need very special raw materials, doesn't need like that high tolerances in

manufacturing, make something that's like closer to a refrigerator than a car, but still as capable as a human. And when I say getting this out the door, what I mean is literally like getting it into your homes, right? So we're going through in-home testing among employees now. I have one in my house in Redwood. It's amazing to get to find to live with the product. And it's going to be some customers having them quite soon, but like under NDA early testing. and then if we play our cards ride, it should be in the main market by end of year. That's the goal.

Wow. Moving quick. How has a company evolved since 10 years ago? Humanoids have always been in people's minds to some degree. They haven't been in the headlines as much as they've been, let's say, in the last couple years, but kind of walk us through maybe those different stages, how your vision evolved, and then I have a bunch of other questions. Yeah, I mean, it's the kind of product. that we all know will happen, right?

And we've known it for like, I don't know, last 50 years. Like at some point this will happen. And the impact is tremendous, right? So I think what's really changed the last couple of years is, to be very blunt, that it works. For the first eight years, it was kind of a grind. And it's a kind of a problem that's really worth just like doubling down on like grinding and pushing on until it works.

And I don't think the impact of this type of technology can be exaggerated, right? it's we're years, not decades now away. It's very hard to like, for a specific date, but we're years, not decades away from robots building robots, robots building out our data centers, our energy infrastructure, our chip manufacturing, like our mining. In general, like this kind of hard takeoff moment, right, where we can actually get to an abundance of artificial labor.

And it doesn't really even matter if it's like physical or digital, right? because once you have this engine running, you will just in general, like have extremely intelligent agents, whether they're in the digital or physical space. And kind of will redefine what it means to be human. Like what do we value in humans? Like how do we see our own worth?

And I'm just really freaking lucky to be a liar, right? To be part of that, it's been my dream all my life. Yeah, the timing is amazing. What about getting into more specifics with Neo? Do you have any sort of specific early use cases that you're focused on in all of this sort of marketing that I've seen so far? It hasn't seemed to focus on certain use cases like manufacturing or certainly not mining

or things like that. It feels like you're maybe more focused on the home. Is that correct? Am I off? No, no, no. It's correct. But it's really important there to point out that, like, you take a step back, right?

It's like we're years and not decades away from actual abundance of artificial labor. So as a company, the only thing that makes sense there is to get there as quickly as possible. It's all we care about. What's the shortest path? So we're not a consumer company. We're the shortest path to artificial labor. And it just happens to be that the shortest path is through consumer because you need to live and learn among people. Like if it's one thing that's incredibly clear in AI, it is that the diversity or like the variance in your data set.

basically equals your intelligence, right? That's where intelligence emerges from. And in a factory, there just isn't enough diversity. Think about it. If you're in a factory all your life moving something from A to B, and that's all you're doing, then you could ask like, okay, how much do you actually learn, right? And we actually have the answer.

You learn about, we need like 20 to 30 hours of data from that, and then we don't learn anything more. Interesting. So like that's just like, that's not where to deploy robots. We want to deploy robots there, but we have to deploy them first, where we actually get the data that gets you through a truly intelligent machine that doesn't just repeat emotion, it understands deeply the task it's doing.

And this brings you into like something interesting that you said in your intro here, which is companionship, right? Because everything we do is social. Like work is social. Like whenever you do something, usually it's because of someone wants something. And usually someone's next to you or even like communication, the social context of objects, like, hey, is this cup on the table

someone using it? Is it yours? Like, is it half full, half empty? Is it dirty? Like, there's liquid in it. But if it's coffee and it's called, it's probably like not in use anymore. It's actually dirty. Like everything has this like social context. And this is what creates this incredible variance

and diversity in the home. Not only is every home different, but like everything happening in the home is different every day. And everything has a social context. So I think we're seeing pretty strong proof now that a lot of model intelligence comes from this diversity. And we really want to double down on that. And then the other part is I think it's just going to be incredible to live with these companions in our life that can not only give us back time in our everyday life with like household chores, but actually be a trusted friend, right? And we're talking to our phones with chatbots and being like, these are our new companions.

but it's not the right interface, right? The right interface is something that you can really deeply connect with, and it gets you away from a screen. It's like Bicentennial Man, a movie I know you haven't seen, but is a fantastic story of a humanoid robot that stays with the family for 200 years and evolves and changes. Robin Williams, it's a beautiful movie. I want to talk to you about kind of the progression of the software,

teleoperation, super valuable in a bunch of different ways, simulation we're seeing lots of promising data there's the sim to real gap there's deterministic algorithms for walk cycles there's end-to-end systems what is your view on the path that we need to go down to get to something that's truly generalizable so that you can put a humanoid robot in a completely novel situation just talk to it and say hey clean up this table and it will remove all of these cans one at a time it knows exactly how to do it and it's never actually been trained on that specific task, but it can

generalize just like any other human can. I think there's two interesting answers. The first one is no one knows how to solve that yet. And then the second answer is we actually know really well how to solve that, which is, it's going to be some big transformer and you just need enough high quality data. So we kind of know like it's an engineering problem at this point because even though we don't know the exact solution, we know what we need, right? We just need an enormous amount of relevant data.

And this data is very different. All models that you see today, they're trained on what I call only observations. If you think about the internet, whether it's video or pictures or text or whatever, it's static, right? So you're like, given that I saw or read this, what's the next thing? But what you're actually missing and where, in my opinion, like a lot of like our ability to reason comes from is that you have some hypothesis about what's going to happen. Like you have your own mental model of like this conversation. So when you're saying something, if I'm training just in what you're saying, that's not the same as if I'm training on what you were thinking and planning and then what you said.

And then what the result of that was, which was back to like how I reacted to that. And robots actually allow you to do this, right? Because you have what the robot is thinking and what it was planning to do, what it actually did and what it resulted in. And this data is what is needed to get to this. And that's how we're gathering at scale. There's no real, like, massive data set, like, the web that you can just scrape. Folks who are using teleoperation to generate data. There's simulation data.

Like, what are the richest sources of data for you? What do you see as being, like, the real trove that you're going to be doubling down on over the next few years? I think it's all of them. But they're all just like a crutch. It's like you're bootstrapping your way to where robots are learning in your real world. And this is really the direction we're moving in because teleoperation does not scale. It's super valuable and we need it, but it doesn't scale. Simulated data, very useful for simple things like walking, but for like peeling a shrimp or whatever, right?

It's like it's not nearly detailed enough. Like it doesn't work. So you just, what you need is to use the internet data, some tele operation, simulation, synthetic data, all of these things to get to where your model is able to sometimes succeed. So when you say, get me a Coke in the fridge, maybe there's a 50% chance that a robot comes back with a Coke. Maybe it gets stuck somewhere on the way, it didn't manage to do so. But once this happens, then you can basically just tell it, hey, good job or like, hey, we're supposed to get my Coke if it's just, I don't know, staring out the window instead. And that's the data loop that scales, right? And that's what we're deploying.

So when we're saying, like, getting this into your home, what we mean is almost more like adopt a Neo to help us teach it. It's not going to do everything in your home day one. We're not there yet. But we're able to deliver a product that is really fun, very engaging, somewhat helpful, and really the ability to be part of this generational journey from the beginning, right? That's the product. And that's how we gather that data. And this comes back to how we design robots that are safe.

Because if you want the robots to actually be learning in the real world, they need to be safe, not just with respect to you, but with respect to itself and your environment, right? You don't want your kitchen to look like a robot had been ravaging around there when it's done. You want your kitchen to look nice, just like it did before the robot went there, even though the robot failed a few times. Yeah, the challenge is you don't have the luxury of hallucinations long term. Like if the robot is unloading the dishwasher and puts a bunch of knives in the wrong cupboard, you know, that's like that's not safe, right?

Yeah, yeah, yeah. You have, you know, kids at home. And, you know, so it's like the bar for acceptable is very high. I want to ask about the supply chain, Dylan Patel was on the show saying, that no matter what happens with human robotics, all the parts are going to be made in China. There were some actuator startups in the comments saying, like, that's not true. We're going to build it here. We're going to fix the supply chain. What's your view on the short, medium, and long term of the robotic supply chain? And you know how to ask the hard questions. Let's start by saying,

to us, this has been all about how do you don't like overconstrained the system too early, right? So human robots don't exist at scale yet. So like if we were making a car, if my new startup was a car, I would clearly utilize the existing supply chain. Of course. What we've done is we've made everything ourselves. I know I say literally here like, I mean, we're undergoing some patenting process for a new

type of die casting of aluminium at the same time that we're launching AI models. So we're like definition of verdict integrator, including all the manufacturing technology. That puts us in a position where we can actually kind of manufacture anywhere. It just depends on access to raw materials, power and general like tariffs and everything else. We are actually building a factory in the US right now. There are challenges because sourcing simple things in quotes like copper, aluminium, steel, these kind of things in the US, for example, it's a lot more expensive than in China.

Logistically, it's also kind of like a nightmare because you don't have kind of like the economic zones with like basically your metal refineries. It's next to your forge. And there are, so there's like pros and cons. But I think there's a path. I think what's the most important here to realize is that when people talk about like things need to be built in China, we're not necessarily talking only about this. We're talking about actual access to knowledge about how to do manufacturing.

And I think that that is the thing that takes the longest to kind of onshore, right? So, sure, there are things that need to happen with rare earths. There's things that need to happen with all these things. But I think the main thing to really work on also is just making sure that people understand how incredibly exciting manufacturing is and make sure that our new generation actually really wants to work on the hard problems in manufacturing. Yeah, I mean, we talked to the author of Apple in China, and he really reframe the conversation about Apple's impact in China, not just as being a by.

buyer, but actually being an educator in China and sending over massive teams of manufacturing designers to create a supply chain that didn't even exist, but was enabled by the scale of the population and the economic zones and everything you articulated. So, yeah, I'm optimistic that in a new boom, you could potentially set up trade deals such that if your business is scaling, you would have the choice to create a new generation of manufacturing engineers in America or anywhere else that might be advantageous. But this has been fantastic. I'd love to have you back and go way deeper. Jordi, you have the last question. Congrats on all the new launches this week. I'm excited to follow you and the whole team's work.

It's been awesome to see. Send us. Great talking to you guys and stay tuned. There's actually more coming. Amazing. Wow. There's more coming in a few couple of days. And we'll pull up another chair for Neo whenever you're ready. Send one over. Happy to adopt one. Bring us another energy drink. Thank you so much for joining.

We'll talk to you soon. Bye. Have a good one. Next up, we have John Doyle from Cape coming in the studio talking to us about violence networking cellular technology. Very excited to talk to him, especially with the backdrop of what happened in Ukraine two weeks ago. Anyway, welcome to the studio, John. Good to have you here.

How are you doing? Hey guys, happy to be here. I'm doing great. Thanks so much for joining. Would you mind kicking us off with a little bit of introduction of yourself and the company maybe to get started? Yeah, you bet. I'm John Doyle, founder and CEO of Cape. It is America's Privacy First mobile network. Two sentences on my background because it explains how I came to start this company. I started my career in the Army Special Forces. I was a communication sergeant in a Fifth Special Forces group. I went to Palantir.

I was there for nine years. And at Palantir, I started in technical roles. I wound up running the national security business for five years. And that's where I learned about this whole, you know, Ph.D field of study worth of vulnerabilities that exist on the global cellular network. Interesting. I'm really passionate about solving them. And so I started Cape in 2022 to get after that problem. What is the biggest, like, concrete risk to the cellular network?

It's, is it like, I would just start at a higher level. Is it how unsecure is the average cellular network? Completely. And, you know, we saw, if you remember during the last campaign, the story came out about J.D. Vance's phone calls being listened to. Oh, yeah. And that kind of came and went as these stories do. But it snowballed into the story about Salt Typhoon, which the headline of that story is

China has just explicitly and completely infiltrated all the major telecos in the United States. Wow. Which is pretty bad. But even before you get there, there are all these, they're really features that are baked into the protocols that run the network. They're there for good reason. But in the hands of malicious actors, some really bad effects can be drawn out of them. And so, you know, we can get deep in the technical weeds if you want to, but basically the whole thing is blown. And it's problematic because we are entirely reliant and kind of fundamentally

reliant on the cellular network. Yeah. What's a bigger risk right now, espionage or sabotage? That's a really good question. I'm going to say espionage because it is being like, it's absolutely happening right now. The Vance story is a perfect example of that, right? Yeah. And just listening to the future vice president's phone calls.

Although the sabotage question is interesting. I know you guys want to talk about or have been talking about Spider-Web a bunch and the drone attacks. of the really interesting features of that story, of course, from our perspective is the fact that the drones were piloted on using cellular connection, which is really interesting to us in a bunch of ways. But importantly, and it came on a bunch in the reporting, when people start to think about countermeasures and, you know, how would we, how would we guard against these attacks in the future? One option that gets taken off the table almost immediately is turning off the cellular network, right? It has like disastrous consequences, right? Yeah, because what if someone

needs to call 911 and they can't something like that you're going to wind up impact when there's an AT&T outage yeah yeah yeah I mean we saw it yesterday with just like cloud flare outage and it was very disruptive talk to me about how you actually go about building a new network are you able to solve the problems that you're trying to solve just by piggybacking on the existing physical hardware or is this a crazy capex problem that you're We're going to see you raising a trillion dollars in debt and stuff. You could probably do that based on your background. But I'm always interested to know where you think the right problem to solve is.

Yeah, it's a great question. And we didn't know the answer to it when we started the company. Thankfully, it turns out you don't need to build the towers. You don't need to own the antennas or the spectrum. Got it. Our approach is we own all the software that runs the network. So we control application, billing, call routing messaging, have all of the important stuff.

And we've done pretty extensive red teaming and testing, especially with government partners, and proven out that if you own all the software, you can actually make a lot of progress against the problem. Very cool. So when I see one of those cell phone towers, that might not be a Verizon tower specifically. That might be owned by a different company that then is like leasing or running software for Verizon and AT&T within the same kind of like, you could think of that almost like a multi-tenant data center. Is that the right mental model when I see a cell phone? phone tower. Yeah, and that's a great, it's a really good observation and it turns out to be true.

Okay. The carriers, you know, the carriers, what the carriers own is spectrum, right? But Verizon owns is an amazing amount of spectrum that super and they administer it. You're right, they don't even own the towers most of the time. And like American Tower or some other company builds the tower, oftentimes puts the radio on there or the carriers will sign an agreement with Nokia or Erickson to put the antennas up there. Oftentimes the carriers don't actually run the radios. They outsource that to Nokia and Erickson. And so they have sort of assumed this system integrator role. And I think my personal opinion is that that has serious security implications has led to some of the problem that we find ourselves on.

Sure. Can you get me up to speed on 5G? I remember the drama around Huawei and they had built 5G towers that we were not going to buy. I also heard someone mentioned offhand that America doesn't really have 5G. We have like fake 5G or something. Is it all marketing? Is it all marketing? Oh, you're like, don't talk about it.

Right. Yeah. Okay, so there's two things there. First, you're like, you're teeing up one of my favorite history lessons, which is 20 years or so ago, 23 years ago. China made the strategic decision to capture as much footprint on the global cellular network as possible. And the way that they achieved that was by pumping billions of dollars of subsidy into

Huawei so that Huawei could run around the world and sell antennas. and also core software, the software that runs the network at half or less of the price of any of their competitors. And so they became really attractive and everyone went out and bought Huawei gear. And the result was that China now owns still, not in the U.S. so much anymore, but around the world, you know, a huge percentage of the footprint on the network. At almost exactly the same time, the U.S., and it's not obviously a different kind of government, so it wasn't like a centrally made decision, but U.S. telecom started outsourcing and, offshoring all of the technical aspects of running the business.

So the course offer now is built by Nokia Erickson, which are Europe. And very little of that capacity exists within the United States. So while China is making all these really deep and recurring investments in the infrastructure, the U.S. is really kind of divesting and just becoming these system integrator spectrum managers. And that's how we find ourselves in this imbalance now. And when people talk about the race for 5G and how is the U.S. positioned with respect to China, I think it's a little bit of a misnomer to say it's 5G because they're not talking about when 5G first started to get buzzy, the use cases were always like a heart surgeon in

Boston is going to be doing surgery in Africa, right, because of the low latency protocols. And that stuff is cool, but that's not like how we're behind China, how we're really behind China. It's just in how much footprint do we own, how much access, how much control do we have over the network. And that's actually agnostic of which generation, or it's independent of what generation we're on. And then are we really on 5G is such a good question. There's like, I think about it mostly from a bandwidth perspective.

Like I became able to stream HD video at like retina resolution. And I really don't have a daily use case that goes beyond that in terms of bandwidth needs. And so as long as, but every once in a while, I notice if I'm about to take off on a plane and I know I want to download a movie right before, the difference between fast, for downloading like a full gig in two minutes and 20 minutes is material. And so that's where I would think 5G would help. But I've also heard about like streaming video games, obviously 4K stuff. But I don't feel the pain that much that I'm not, you know, I'm not a single issue voter on the topic.

But I am curious. You're like, I mean, that observation is a threat to the entire like, like, like 3G to 4G was way better. Oh, totally. It was night and day. Yeah. Better and more securely. And 4G to 5G was arguably better, although not entirely because, like, 5G connection drains the battery on your phone a lot faster.

Interesting. There's some tradeoffs there where LTE times that 4G is actually like a better option in some. But beyond that, like the hurry up and download a movie use case, there's kind of nothing left. And so there's a big, you know, shrug in the industry. People are kind of waving their hands at AI. Like, well, we're going to do AI and that'll, you know, that'll change everything. But I don't know that that that that, that, that, that, that, that, that, that. that comes into it.

Everything's an S curve. It's all sigmoid. We saw mobile bandwidth growing exponentially. Everyone was like, you're gonna be able to download 10 xabytes in two seconds. And in fact, it was a sigmoid function, like it always is. Like I think you can use nail in your case.

It's like as long as I can stream Netflix at maximum resolution, I'm done. Like that's the maximum. Who is the, who is the core customer that you're going after? Is it people in important positions, you know, politicians, CEOs, et cetera? It's just JD.

Just J-D-Bans. One customer. One-billion-dollar contract. You should be able to get a $1-billion-dollar ARR contract. But when I think about the broad consumer market, people say they want privacy, but in a lot of people just want $20 instead of $30, right?

Yeah. Yeah, I mean, both of those consumers exist in the market. There are a lot of people. Mint Mobile perfected the, like, how cheap can you offer a sell plan, right? And they nailed this. $20 a lot turns out to be the answer. Ryan Reynolds, Undefeated.

I love the background. When you have unlimited free marketing for my general. So, okay, so yeah, so who are like, who are we trying to solve problems for? I mean, I like my backgrounds in special operations. I am deeply passionate about the fact that cellular phones have been a part of the battlefield for as long as we've had cellular phones and they are increasingly, not decreasingly so over time. We saw this in Ukraine, like everyone, the entire Ukraine and the entire Ukraine and war is fought on the mobile network and the communications aspects of it. And I'm deeply passionate

about building technology that keeps people doing that work safe. Right. I think that's like a really important mission and I love it. And that is where we started when we're thinking about the product and starting to like build early versions and build early features. That was the market. But we always had in mind and I in my early life, I was a special operations soldier. In my later life, I'm a parent and like, and I even in my sort of relatively mundane parental you know, mid-40s existence, I have worries about how reliant I'm on my cell phone and the trade-offs I'm making and things like sim swaps, if you know what sim swaps are. That's a future. And you need, you have to build technical solutions to problems like that. And I have

also like a general sense of indignation that if I want to be a subscriber to any traditional telco, I give away all of my personal information. And then they lose it like clockwork four to five times a year. They really do. They're giving it away. It doesn't have to be that way and it shouldn't be that way. Well, thank you for your service, both in the military and as a father. It's very important. We got to get you Ryan Gosling. I think, you know, Ryan Reynolds, went with then mobile.

We get you Ryan Gosling. There's something there. There's something there. This is fantastic. Well, now you're our chief mobile correspondent now. Yeah. Yeah, I mean, do you have anything else or should we let him go? No, this was great.

Thank you so much for hopping on. This is fantastic. there's going to be I'm sure there'll be more stories this year. Yeah. Yeah, we'd love you. Have you back on. Some, some deeper insight. But we'll let you get back to it. Important work. Have a great rest of your day. Cheers, John. We'll talk to you soon. Let's quickly tell you about wander. Find your happy place. Find your happy place. Book of Wander within. I love that when I point. Hotel grade amenities. Dreamy beds. Top tier cleaning. 24-7. Yeah, it's so good. There we go.

Top tier cleaning. 24-7 concier service. It's a vacation home, but better. Yesterday I got a little spicy on the timeline. I said vacation. I said, traveling is overrated. I wasn't talking about vacations. I said, what are you running from? I love staycations. I love getting to wander in my hometown.

In something I can drive to. Load up the entire family. Load up the dogs. Drive out to a wander. Hit jash and travel. Marijuana and travel. There's no reason you need to go outside the country to enjoy a beautiful wander. Although, if traveling is your ticket going, go.

Let's be a wander. It is. All over the US. Let's check in with our intern, Tyler Cosgrove. Tyler, how are we doing? Well, I'm very close. Okay. But this has been kind of a disappointment.

I'm extremely slow right now. I mean, I thought I've been done 30 minutes ago. Are your hands aching or your fingers breaking? I'm sweating. Oh, sweating. Okay. Well, you're an hour and a half in. If you're sweating a lot, you should try these Apple decks, Apple plate,

reinforced electrolytes. I didn't tell. Let's get him a cup. Let's get him a cup. Get him some electrolytes. Make sure he's hydrated. I didn't tell Tyler this, but I took a picture of.

the Lego kit and I asked ChatGPT, how long will this take? It's a between two and four hours. And then he was like, I can do it in 30. And I was like, okay, good luck. Anyway, we have our next guest in the studio, Emily Sunberg, the writer of the fantastic Feed Me. The daily newsletter about the spirit of enterprise. Really? Isn't that incredible line? That's an incredible line. Welcome to the stream. How are you doing? Welcome to the show. I'm so up everyone. I'm happy to be here. Everyone, all two of you. Yes. Yes. Well, we have our intern here. We have our intern here. We're going to like this. You know, Emily being a guest, I've gotten more random texts about it.

People being like, oh, you should ask her this. Oh, really? That's great. People are paying attention. Is that a Google shirt? Exciting. That's scary. That's amazing.

Well, what is your shirt? Let me see. Did you stand up? Oh, Apple. I was at WWDC on Monday. Yeah, you were reporting on what the really old folks are thinking about Apple, right? Is that what they said? Yeah.

I saw a backlash. The people over at Puck said that Apple should have invited younger people to cover it. Wow. Wow. Well, anyway, before we go to it, is it true that Tim Cook begged for a selfie? Oh yeah. Yeah, totally. No, that was that was really fun. That was well. I didn't expect that to happen. What was your reaction? It feels like a lot of the liquid glass hate has blown over by now. People like most. Yeah, I think like sitting there in real time reading Twitter and seeing people's reactions, it seems like people weren't excited and wanted more Apple intelligence updates.

But that night I went to, have you guys ever been to WWDC? No, no, never. I went to one of those like ancillary engineer and developer barbecues, like an hour away in an Airbnb with like 30 guys who build apps. And they were all really excited. So I think they're the people who it's for and they're the people who are. going to ultimately be using these updates and they seemed thrilled about it. Yeah, it was a developer conference and they actually announced a lot of exciting things around

developers. Yeah. And it also seemed like they ceded some territory in the AI world that could potentially enable more AI apps to be owned by independent developers, which is a huge, huge boon for the ecosystem. Did you get to press Tim Cook on the photos app at all? Are you a photos app enjoyer? I had about 14 seconds with him and Will Walsh before me. So it was like, Not a lot of time. Yeah. Next year.

Next year. Next year. Awesome. I have a bunch of other random questions to go through. Please. Jordan, hit it. I want to ask about the state of substack, but before we get into that, what is the state of the New York City election? This mayor, we've been kind of covering it.

Our corner of the internet is not super excited about the potential of a socialist mayor. what's actually happening on the ground. Yeah. What do you think about that, that Photoshop beard job? That felt more just like a printing error, honestly, to me. It didn't seem like they did a ton of pre-processing. Ink dripping down longer? I didn't see it as longer.

I saw it more as just like when you reduce the resolution so much, like the gaps between the hairs kind of blur all together and it makes the beard look thicker. I wasn't fully like someone went in there in Photoshop. prestigious with the mayor stuff okay explain that oh i don't i don't want to talk oh okay okay you don't want to jinx it oh yeah yeah you're in your single endorsement could actually shift the election decided and then you would um i interviewed for them i interviewed quomo i interviewed zoran lander and stringer um for the newsletter last week it's really fun

oh cool cool what's the next question let's move on from politics i want to talk about substack how you're seeing it evolve, it feels like it just continues to have a moment, you're dominating the platform, at least that's what it looks like. We're not super active there, but what is the state of things? Yeah, I've been on, I've been writing on substack for five years now. So, I definitely had a, I think I had a little bit of first mover advantage there. Like, I, I know the platform so well. And I think even just understanding the tools and like what works well, the heat map of my own audience has been super helpful for me. And for anybody listening to this who doesn't know,

like I write a newsletter every single day. So the opportunities for people to discover me are a lot higher. But I think that's something that's interesting about substack is that just because you have a large following somewhere else doesn't mean it's necessarily going to carry over to a newsletter. Like the inbox seems like such precious real estate to people and who they, who subscribers, allow into that feels a little bit more intentional. So it's not like you're going to just follow a thousand people like you do on Instagram. So you have to be really fucking good to make it. And then you have to sorry, can I curse on this? We don't, but you can. But you're welcome to. I'm going to not.

If you, yeah. You have to be really excellent at at content and something that I do. I have one of the more active chats on substack like across the whole platform. And I'm in conversation with my readers constantly daily. And that's a lot of work as well. So the state of things on substack, I'd say it's getting pretty competitive. You're seeing a lot of people jump over there and maybe try to make it but aren't necessarily making money yet. They also don't have an advertising integration like Beehive or even Twitter or YouTube do. So if you're going to sell ads, you're on your own for that or you have to get an agency. Yeah, what specifically do you want to know?

Yeah, no, I'm curious, like, specifically, specifically, like, how much some of the new social features are driving growth? Is that, like, a primary driver at this point? Or would you, do you still think you'd be it? Which features? Audio and video? Well, like, all of the new social features, you know, I just see, like, you know, we've trained. It's like a lot of people were growing based on, like, recommendations in, like, basically, like, cross promotions or collabs. Yeah, so for me, like. So, yeah, I was, um.

I was in D.C. a few months ago and I met with somebody who's invests in this space. And he was asking me, like, why don't you consider, like, doing your own thing off platform and building away from them? And there's a few, I used to think about that a lot more. And I used to do that math a lot more. And I showed him my analytics on my dashboard because you can see how many people are discovering you from within the app and within their ecosystem. And he was like, they have you. Like, you can't leave. You're stuck there.

And it's not a bad gig. Like they take 10% of what I make, which I think is totally fair considering how well the product is worth for me. They probably driving consistently 10% growth. And so that's totally, that math's out just fine. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. When I think about substack, I think of peak substack for me was like pre-2020, like that era.

When I think about when I was like reading multiple substacks a day. and now Feed Me is the actually only newsletter that breaks into the important tab of my Gmail. And then there's a bunch of other substacks that are just kind of lost in the mix. I've just been trying to get a read on it. But if you are going to be dependent on a social platform or any type of media platform, substack is a great one. Take your newsletter. Take your Stripe account if you ever need to.

It's great. I mean, I own my subscriber list. I get to sell my own ads, which is going quite well. and when things break, they fix them. That's great. Talk about you had a fairly viral post. The tech guy in a hoodie stereotype is dead. You were at WWDC and seeing a bunch of different labels and brands being worn.

Does that surprise you? Does it not surprise you? What was your reaction broadly? I think it was where as a whole, well, Will Welch was there. So clearly there's something, Will Welch's editor of GQ. There's something happening, you know, just with his spirit in the air at the conference. People always think of iOS developers as being, you know, at the foremost of fashion. So you should always be there if you're running.

Yeah, I think I assumed more of them to look like the guys who work at the Apple store at my mall on Long Island or something. And it was impressive. I mean, like guys looked good. I wouldn't say capital S suiting, but like fits. There were a lot of cool sneakers. I think that a few years ago it would have been more new balance. I think that like the Steve worshippers are sort of aging out a little bit. Now there's these younger guys who probably are seeing that moment as like one of their big trips of the year

and probably wanted to break out some fun outfits. Saw a lot of good sneakers, saw a lot of big watches, saw like a Nautilus on a guy. There we go. There we go. There we go. Was he, did he have an Apple watch on the other wrist? No. No.

But a lot of Apple watches also. But a lot of nice watches. Very cool. Which, like, I don't know. A lot of people don't wear nice watches in their cities anymore. Well, you can't in New York because it will be taken from you very quickly. Right. Exactly.

But it's safe space on the Apple campus. Cooper Tina. Yeah. At the donut. Do you ever get tempted to Angel invest? I'm sure you get asked constantly. Do I get tempted to Angel. invest. I get asked, but that's not something that tempts me now. Why not? My business is kind of

my main focus right now. Yeah, that's good. That's good. Are we, are we post-peak-seleb brand? Are we post-peak-seleb brand? Yeah, are we on the downslash? I think, I think so. Yeah, I think so. Yeah. So brands. What do you think the interaction between celebrities and consumer startups will be formula too well now, which is that the celebrity isn't actually going into the office every day. And like that illusion has broken, right? So you can wear the suit on the stage at the conference and do the Forbes thing. But people are sort of understanding that they're not the operators. And they're just sort of like a paid person to have their name on a brand, right?

Yeah. And I think the other thing happens all the time where like the founder becomes a celebrity after they start the company. Yep. which is more interesting to me than like a famous person hiring a bunch of people to do their work for them and getting paid for it. Yeah. Do you think we move back to, so I think of the celeb corporation collaboration, collaboration eras is like you used to just pay a celebrity to appear in your Super Bowl ad and it would be like a million dollars in cash. Then we got to the point all the way on the other side of the spectrum where celebrities were commanding 30, 40, 50 percent. equity grants in businesses that were built entirely around their brands. To your point, people are catching on that that means that, yeah, they have a huge economic stakes they're going to be talking about all the time, but they're not really driving

the product forward in any meaningful way. We could go back to just pay for a celebrity appearance in an ad, or we could move forward into something like what I've seen Sequan Barkley doing where he is essentially just angel investing in these companies. And yes, he'll appear in the ads, but he's not saying he's building the company. He's very transparent about that. He will partner with them, but he's equity aligned, but just like any other investor. And so I'm wondering if there will be a boom in that kind of paradigm or that model, or if we'll just go back to, you know, companies and startups,

just being more comfortable writing a $400,000 check for a celebrity to appear in an ad. It's cash. And you know what it is. Yeah, I don't see the latter, like, being, becoming a big thing. I just feel like it's such a specific kind of company that has that kind of marketing budget. And it's also really risky to invest in celebrities and influencers now because people are so volatile. I've definitely seen more of the angel investor in, like hot girl Instagram bios. Like, oh, sure. Yeah, it's a status symbol. Angel investor. And I think it's like a flex. You know, it's like I'm also a businesswoman. So I think that's already happening. Like there's like a soft boom of that of people getting the opportunity to do that and basically only having one canned cocktail in their in their house. And not because they're necessarily getting paid, but because they quietly invested or not so quietly invested. And they're able to sort of flex a portfolio of investing.

And that's like something they do besides whatever other things they do. But there was that Alex Earl Poppy deal last year where she was drinking it a lot. And I guess her dad, who sounds like a pretty savvy business guy, negotiated for her to get equity in the brand. So that's sort of like a prime example of that where she wasn't talking around, going around saying that she was an angel investor. But I guess she was. Yeah. Well, yeah. And Poppy had a stacked cap table of various personalities, celebrities, athletes, et cetera.

Also like private equity firms, growth equity firms. Yes. But yes. Where, give us a temp check on wellness right now. Are we past peak wellness in many ways? People are doing more wellnessy things, but at the same time being unwell feels popular. I did like a chat with my readers the other day about alcohol consumption. And people are all over the map with that.

There are people who are like, I'm 35. I haven't had a drink in 10 years. I'm perfectly happy. Life is great. And then there's definitely a decent cohort of, oh, somebody said that people who have been sober for years are kind of like strategically or strategically drinking now, which was interesting to me. We strategically drink.

I think like the king of wellness right now is GLP ones. Like that's sort of the most exciting thing happening. Is that getting wrapped in different brands right now to appeal to different co-house? Horts or personal demos? Yeah, I just think it's changing people's chemical composition and changing the way that they think and work out and eat and socialize. And that's very interesting to me with that. Do you think that brands are already being, you know, the initial concern was that, you know, fast food brands were cooked because people just were going to eat less. But then there's a downstream effect if New York Gurley's are microdosing GLP ones. And then maybe they're like,

I'm not going to go to Pilates today because, you know, I'm already, you know, happy with what I look, you know, whatever. Are you hearing any about any kind of like down-true business impact? Winners and losers post-GLP1? I don't think the Pilates Industrial Complex is affected. They're sort of the new weed store to me. They're everywhere. The Pilates studios. It's like people are buying these sheet made in China reformer machines, setting them up and just like running crazy Pilates businesses.

So I don't think that's going to be affected any time soon. Because even if you get really thin, you still want to be shredded. Dreaded. You've got to be shredded. But also with like fast food, I'm pretty sure people on GLP ones are still eating it. They're just not eating a lot of it. Like they're getting cold fast and throwing it away. Who was a celebrity that said the other day that he was just eating, eating through it?

He was just basically powering through it. He was powering through it. I think that would be me. I'm like convinced that my hunger. bit over power it. That's amazing. What about other downstream effects from GOP-1s? I was talking to somebody who was like they wanted to start a protein water company

because they felt like with the GLP-1 boom, people would be eating less. They needed to supplement, aside from the brands that have just wrapped GLP-1 in different landing pages, are there other kind of winners from the GLP-1 boom that you've seen? Adjacent. Somebody told me the other day that all these protein foods are not healing foods, and it changed the way that I think about people eating all this protein. Any other trickle down things. I'm sure there will be some sort of like therapy blowback, like people needing more therapy,

women being anxious. What's the state of Maha right now? Are people building new businesses around that? Or they're mostly just old line businesses that are beneficiaries of Maha? You guys follow Ballerina Farm? Oh, yeah. I have to just open the little store wherever she lives in the Midwest. She feels very Maha aligned.

Yeah, they like raw milk. They like farm stuff. She's an interesting business person, though. Is any of that breaking through in New York? It feels like a lot of the actual products that are Maha aligned feel very New York aligned, and yet the politics of the products could not be more disparate. You're right. It's so political. It's like there was a store in New York that was selling raw milk out of one fridge. It was like one of these. And it probably wasn't a right wing store, right? I mean, I don't know. But like, but like he didn't present as like, oh, yes. There wasn't an American flag.

It presented as like rich women who buy $20 smoothies. So like they could fall all over the place on the spectrum, honestly. But I don't think they sell it anymore because that's like bad for business. if enough people call you out on it. Wow. Even like there's this guy at the farmer's market, this Amish guy who used to sell raw milk and he's not there anymore. And I don't know where he went. Big milk took him out. Yeah, someone did.

Brutal. Where do you get, what's the most significant part of your scoop machine? Is it readers giving you tips? Is it walking around New York? Is it a combination? one of your readers asked me to ask you that. I'm sure people, of course, they want to know where that is. I have some really good readers.

That's the IP. That's the IP. Yeah, I have some really good readers who are super loyal with sending me scoops. And they could send them to New York Magazine or The New York Times or Puck or Semaphore or whatever. And they send them to me and I'm super grateful for that. And we have a good thing going. I also have an anonymous tip line, which is always, I think people get a little confused about what falls on. What qualifies?

PR pitches. PR pitches, insane gossip. PR pitches aren't the bad. The bad stuff is like a politician walking out of a 3 p.m. screening of baby girl alone. Like, I don't, that's like, let them rock. That's not news. Yeah, that's pretty funny though. And then I go out a lot.

Like, I go out four or five times. a week. I go to parties. I go to dinners. I meet people. I meet readers. Yeah. So it's like my life, I feel sort of like a machine right now, but it's working really well. So I can't get too pushing the machine then. Well, congratulations on building fantastic. Last question. Do do copycats bother you? I'm sure you've had hundreds of people by now be like, I'm going to make feed me for XYZ or feed me for that or just like blatant. Do they do they get under your skin? They used to, but data is a very calming force in my life right now, and especially in my business, and the numbers calm me down.

The numbers don't lie. Yeah. It's fantastic. There we go. We're hitting the size gone. Well, congratulations on everything. And thanks for stopping by. Thanks for coming on.

You're always welcome. Thank you, guys. Yeah, we'd love to be back and talk more. Cheers. Talk to you soon. Up next, we have Leonardheim calling in from the RAND Corporation. We're going to talk about AI models. We're talking about sovereign AI.

Crazy range to this. crazy range today. It's a it's a whirlwind tour. Wait, let's check on Tyler. How's it doing? Tyler, how are you doing? I'm done. He's done. So the fury has been assembled. I think my final time was somewhere around hour 15. So double hour 19. So yeah, I mean, pretty shameful. I think it looks good. I mean, yeah, send the electrolytes my way. Okay. I'll start channeling out. I think Dylan grabbed the cup and some water. If you guys want to grab it, let's get some electric lights going up in here. Very beautiful model. It looks great.

Yeah. It's really cool. Very cool. I'm glad we have that in the studio now. Well, enjoy your horse electrolytes. I hope you have a good rest of the stream. We will hop on with our next guest now. We'll check back in for a taste, taste review.

Yeah. Yeah, yeah. When we finish this next interview. Anyway, welcome to the studio, Leonard. How are you doing today? Let's bring in Leonard and chat about artificial intelligence and geopolitics. How are you doing? Hey, good to see you.

I'm doing great. How are you guys? We're great. Would you mind kicking us off with a little introduction on yourself and what you do day to day? Sure. Yeah, Leonardheim calling it from Washington, D.C. I'm a, what do I call myself, researcher, working on AI policy. I'm going on electric engineering. I think part of my mission is to bridge the technical world and the policy world, and that's what I've been doing. Before, yeah, I was cool, the last four or five years, actually. Yeah, and now AI is cool, and since then I've been ever busy. It is extremely cool. It's driving the new cycle. every single day. Yeah, pretty much the coolest technology. Do a little level setting for us.

What is the dominant story? How is the race between the U.S. and China shaping up on the AI front? What are the interesting threads to pull on? What are the most important companies to be tracking right now? Yeah. Well, that's a tough question. Where to start? I think it's like still the deep seek trauma. It's like still still there, still dominant, right? I think that was like this initial story at U.S. is like so far ahead. There is no Chinese model being closed and then deep sea came out and definitely had a big impact in DC, but I guess also in a broader world as we saw on the stock market. And I think it's pretty dominant here. Still in DC, you know, like in DC always talk about things, which Silicon Valley did half a year ago, even a year ago. Yeah. So it's still part of the dominant discussion. And then

Xbox controls, I guess is also a big topic right now, right? Sure. Sure. You've got the US China trade talks going on right now. Yep. Where they're negotiating beyond Xbox Controls, which impact AI, but Ex-Pocondoles famously had an big impact on AI in China. Yeah, so let's talk about DeepSeek. One of the narratives that came out of the DeepSeek story was all the American labs are completely cooked. And then we got Jevons Paradox and V-Vita pop back up and all the labs seem to be making tons of money, open AI crossed $10 billion in revenue, run rate, and things seem to be going well.

But what are the wrong lessons from DeepSeek? What are people getting wrong about the deep seek story? How relevant is deep seek? We're still hearing about it as being important geopolitically in some of these jump ball nations that aren't quite allies, aren't quite rivals. And they might be interested in building an open source stack on top of Huawei Ascend, Deepseek, Manis, that type of stack. What are the wrong lessons that people are learning from the deep seek story? I think DeepSig made such a big noise because we're just lacking a good reference class. They just came out pretty impressive model.

It was openly available and we had a paper attached to it, right? And then it came out also saying it cost us $6 million. There's any one of us now how much it costs open AI or like enthropic or any of these other companies what to do? We don't, right? And I think this just really made headline use. We like sometimes get like Sam Ortman going on stage saying I think at something he said it costed them $100 million to do GPD4. But 100 million what? just a training compute?

Is it just like buying the hardware? Probably not. Is it paying the staff engineers? Definitely not. So like the reference class is like pretty important here. Sure. Well then it cost to them 100 million. What?

Like this is not two years ago even more. Yeah. And no deep six million. So I think people just like we're lacking is like, well, this sounds impressive. But like they had just no reference class of what's actually going on within the companies. And I think a couple of weeks later

and Fropex CEO, Dario put out a blog post saying like actually we can train to the same efficiency. And I think this was like for people monitoring the market, Not surprising. We just know the trend lines. I mean, no, it gets like vastly cheaper every single goddamn day to train such a system. So to that, like, some surprising.

But like, you look at this, you don't have a reference class, and then it just looks really impressive. Yeah, I think a lot of the more technical analysts in the AI world were excited to see the open source results. Excited to hear about FP8 training, for example. We talked to Dylan Patel. He was telling us, oh, well, Open AI was doing FPA training. years ago. They just didn't tell anyone because it was kind of like their edge, I guess. But all the labs had kind of figured that stuff out. They just hadn't told everyone exactly how they did. Deep Sea came out there and told everyone and sounded like they really had jumped ahead.

Instead, it seemed like they just jumped to the frontier, had not fully advanced beyond the frontier necessarily, but then done it in an open source way. What was the read on the strategy to open source? It felt like there was a very deliberate, like that launch, if it had been closed source $20 a month you know very difficult to access rate limited lots of safety harness around it that we would have been telling a very different story about deep seek if they had said oh this is this cost a trillion dollars it took us forever instead it seemed like they were like a number of superlative and viral hooks that really captured the American news media and drove a big cycle how much of that was intentional versus how much of that was just like a like a

a random byproduct. Yeah, I think as you're saying, there were just like so many checkboxes that ticked. It was didn't during the first week of time. It was an open release model weight, right? It was surprisingly so cheap. It's coming out of China. Oh, it was like the first public reasoning model. Yeah.

Right. So just like all of the things happening at the same time. So like wherever you're coming from, DC excited because it's out of China, but we thought be fixed, we did export controls, right? Yeah. Silicon Valley, oh, it's an open source model, right? and everybody looking at like, actually, how does this reason work?

Because opening, I did it before, but it didn't tell us. So again, just ticking all of these boxes, how much of this was deliberate. I don't think this is like a state coordinated effort that they said like, this is how we're going to do it. I think deep seek had like a pretty open commitment to like releasing models publicly before, right?

So they've just been following that. It's just, it was like to some degree, if there's a marketing strategy behind it, that did it right. I just expect most of the things are just like how to take, works, right? And they were early on a reasoning. They were like one of the first companies doing it publicly. And then you just made a ton of noise. And again, even though Chachypte had a reasoning model

available, it was only available at a premium tier. And so for a lot of AI consumers, I think their first interaction with a reasoning model was DeepSeek or the Deepseek app, which was just a very interesting kind of like go-to-market strategy essentially. And also seeing the chain of thought, right? like the reasoning, which we didn't see before, right? And even the cost thing. It's like this changed a ton. Yeah, even a cost thing. A lot of financial folks.

I mean, you mentioned that Silicon Valley was excited about open source. Washington was, you know, interested in the story because of the China angle, but also the financiers. The Nvidia investors were interested in the financial impact of this. So, yeah, it was fascinating. I got it wrong, right? Yeah, yeah, for sure. That's my take. How much of the existence of Deepseek do you ascribe to China's position?

around high frequency trading. Oh, that's an interesting one. I mean like Deepseek sits in the hedge fund, right? Yes. And they were initially buying 10,000 A100 or 5,000 A100s in 2002, I think, before the export controls. And tons of GPUs always still go to hedge funds because they, well, we don't exactly know what they're doing,

but they definitely like accelerating computing. For sure. And partially machine, yeah, machine learning, bunch of other stuff. Are they all training language models? Probably not. And I think then one theory I've heard, I'm not sure. I'm not sure how true it is.

There was like the crackdown in China on the tech sector, right, including high frequency trading hedge funds and more. This made them that pivot to AI. It's like, well, if we can't trade on the market anymore, what should we do with all of these GPUs or turns out of AI is this new hot cool thing? And then I think the other thing which is important here, when you have these hedge funds, they do like really low level optimizations, like writing on kernels. They don't do like just high level pie torch.

They go down there and try to get like every single point of utilization out of the models out of the hardware and this helped them, right? You know, like, Deepzik has pretty correct engineers. I think this was like pretty obvious once we saw like the code. And just then have them to then train a pretty, pretty decent good model. Let's talk about Lama. The Lama 4 launch was a little rocky. Obviously there was allegations of some benchmark.

Just over optimization, it seems like a lot of the big frontier labs or the independent labs kind of just don't even care about benchmarks anymore. It's all about big model smell and just the actual performance of the products. At the same time, I've been really interested in this narrative of Lama as a very important American export, as a counter to the Huawei S& Deep Seek Manus stack that other countries might be comping. Because, yes, they might be interested in doing a deal with Stargate and buying a whole bunch of Nvidia chips, but what are they going to put on top of it? Are they going to, maybe they don't want to go all the way with open AI or anthropic.

Lama seems like an interesting wedge there. How important is that? What is your reaction to the meta-lama strategy and how they're being perceived in Washington right now? I would be curious on your guys' takes on this. I'm like still unsure how I feel about this. I mean, let's just start with Deepseek. I think it's an interesting moment in time when all of the leading US models are just behind closed doors and the best old models coming out of China.

I'm worried about it because this model is partially biased and it lies about the CCP. It has some Chinese propaganda in it, right? Or is this bad? Imagine you're like some developer in another country. You want to build a new education app. You're using this model and then you know you teach your kids Chinese propaganda. I think that's great, right? I think it's even worse if you think about sleep agents.

People know about this paper from a propic, right? You can basically have like sleep agents sitting in this model. When you talk about a certain topic, it starts giving you a code with vulnerabilities. but it can apply to anything else. And it's like really hard to look for it because you don't know what to look for. Right. So it's worrying.

I don't think that's the case of Deepseek right now, but going forward in the future, the case is just like, if you use an open model, you don't really know what's in there, what's hiding in there, right? This goes for all companies, but I think we've got more reason to mistrust

certain other companies than, for example, meta. Yeah, it kind of makes me think that it kind of makes me think that Anthropic might have a real business on their hands with AI safety. Obviously, they branded it all around, oh, like, you know, we want to prevent AGI doom and fast takeoffs. But if you just think about like, hey, we're going to launch this model in our organization and we want to make sure that the code that it writes doesn't have random vulnerabilities, that feels like a very important like AI safety product almost to evaluate these models, test them.

And essentially root out sleeper agents. And so I've all of a sudden flipped to like very excited about the work that Anthropics doing on that. front. Jordy, do you have any questions? I think this could be like a real benefit to them. Yeah, totally. And that's like, that's kind of how it started. Yeah, yeah.

Force learning from human feedback gave Chachibb rise. It was like some people trying to make the models more useful, but also less harmful. And turns out they turn out to be a bunch more useful. And I guess like we will see more about this going forward in particular for code or even if government wants to adopt these models. Yep. Right. You just better be got them sure.

Um, my question was around, uh, news from the last 24 hours, basically. Um, and specifically, um, and specifically people, People talk about the application of AI in warfare, but it's always a sort of like very generalized high level of like, oh, using AI. And I can easily imagine, you know, simulation scenarios, data collection processing, all that stuff, like kind of going up to the point of a conflict

and then autonomous drones and things like that. But what are the ways in which you've understood AI to be used in an actual like, conflict scenario. Sure. I mean, I mean, look, I don't do narrow AI or drones to some extent. I expect us like a bunch of just like computer vision applications and more. But if you look at like frontier, like if we look at large language models, I think one big application is just intelligence, right? Literally my job on a day to day basis is like open source intelligence. I want to know what's going on around the world. Nobody's telling me, well, except deep seek to sometimes publish a paper,

but like I don't know what the US companies are doing. I don't know what's going to China and the semi-conduct industry. So just a bunch of data, I feed into my LLMs and ask them what's going on, right? And for intelligence operations, it's the same. We saw in the last 24 hours pretty targeted attacks. Israel is famously known for pretty good intelligence operations. And I think they exactly knew who they were hitting based on these types of operations, right? And if you just have like a nice backdoor on a smartphone and you just like feed all of the chat transcript in an LM can make sense out of this, right? And you can do it at a larger, way bigger scale to identify the target. And you can do it at a large or way bigger scale to identify the targets and also identify patterns, which again might be harder for humans to do.

At least you can like, oh, like, well, no, like augment humans. Yeah, I mean, they used to do that with like keyword search. Okay, like let's do you have a ton of data who's talking about bombs. Who's talking about attacks and people would use code words and LLMs are really good at deciphering that type of stuff. Fascinating. Give us a state of the union on export controls for AI chips. What is, what's expected on the horizon?

How has the landscape changed over the last, you know, couple months at least? Right. I mean, when Biden left the offers, there was like two big rules coming out. The one rule was, I think many people are tracking, the Foundry to Diligence rule. It was a big hiccup where Huawei produced a bunch of ships over TSM in Taiwan, which were not supposed to. They did it via a shell company. Three million ships.

That's quite a lot. That's way more than they produce. That's what they cut their hands on. And government reacted with a new rule basically tele-tisn-see like, goddamn, you've got to be do better to diligence and like check who your customer is and make sure they don't end up with Huawei. Because they broke two rules. No chips for Huawei at all. And please, no big AI chips for any entity in China, right? So this was a big move.

That's still the case. I applaud that. I think this was a pretty sensible move to just make sure they can't again get their access to their many chips. And the other one was the diffusion framework, which I guess you probably discussed at some point before, right? like broader controls to some degree on all of the world deciding to some degree dealing with the Gulf states dealing with a bunch of in-between countries where people were worried about ship smuggling but also data centers being built there Malaysia is being such a country with a bunch of data centers being built there really interesting reporting today where I think

the world's the journal reported people were like going back and forth on an airplane with hard drives to train models over Malaysia I saw that we were going to read that yeah wow which again speaks to the efforts they're going to going to to get access to AI chips and how creative they get. And also from my point of view, I'm just getting surprised every single time of how creative they get to get access to AI chips. Anyways, that's the rule they did. But this one is not being enforced right now.

It's not officially revoked yet. We're still waiting for it officially be gone. But at least commerce, Lutnik and Kessler put out a statement saying they're not enforcing it. They will come up with replacement rule. And this replacement rule that needs to deal with, well, yeah, basically all the countries except the clearly competitors, China, Russia. North Korea, they're all controlled. They will continue being controlled. But what about all the

other countries like the Gulf states, like countries with a bunch of smuggling going on? And yeah, me as somebody from outside the government is waiting to see more moves there. Yep. I have one last question. Good, Jordi. Today, a bunch of technologists join the Army Reserve in the newly formed Attachment 201 Executive Innovation Corps. Can you tell me a little bit about how you're seeing technology, and the tech community plug in in DC. What is needed there? What do you want to see on the horizon? This seems like a step in the right direction,

but it feels like a job's not finished moment. Yeah, I think that's the right audience. Like a call to all the techies to come to DC. The pay is not better here. It's also pretty damn hard with living in this form here. But I think there's a strong case for impact. So as a techie, I think like when I talk to like young undergrad, like, oh, in DC, like I just did like a bachelor's machine learning.

what do I know? It's like, it's plausible. You're the smartest person in the room and many times in D.C., which is way harder than in San Francisco. People don't know a policy, which sometimes can be a benefit to be like a bit ignorant about like how the game is being played. Just like, look, here's just a math. Yeah, just fresh eyes. Right? Yeah. So like, I love techies coming to government, just like crunching numbers. I think they should sometimes be less opinionated.

Just like, look, here the numbers, we crunched them. Could suggest this, could suggest that. But just like grounding it like in analysis. like an objective things. When I think about China and AI chips, I can crunch the numbers on how faster chips are, how many they're producing, and in contrast, how fast American chips are, and how many we're producing, right? And this is just a good analysis to be run. How this then impacts the broader scheme of the AI ecosystem and who's winning the AI race and what? It's a different question, but we can then take it from there, right? So if I see stuff like this, be it in, again,

in the military, but also just generally in government, particularly anything on export controls, Anything around just understanding of what the hell is going on? Just like having somebody explain like, hey, deep seek, it's a reasoning model. What is everybody talked about distillation? Like, really just explaining the basics is like, yeah, things people should do. And I think people with the CS is like an undergrad degree in computer science, they can do it. And I would love to have them there. I'm hiring, by the way.

So if anybody's listening, please join me, apply. Amazing. Yeah, in general, I think it's good that we don't just have, you know, these sort of high profile technologists only joining Doge. Yeah, yeah. There's other things that are important in the government besides just, you know, taking a sledgehammer or scalpel to different parts of the government. So it's government getting stuff wrong.

I think the most famous example is the initial Xbox controls, 22, we're trying to control AI chips. Yeah. And they use two parameters, technical parameters, which probably 99% of DC won't understand. Total processing performance, how many flops it got. And then also the interconnect band with how fast they can talk to our chips. And they messed something up there. Then Vydea could basically design a new chip sitting right at the threshold,

but still having high flops, just basically as good as the other chips. And that's what Debsick used. And then it took them a damn year to fix it. And I can confidently say they knew a month later, they should do better there. And that's just a thing where, like, techies, and you didn't need to be the smartest person.

I've never trained to read a big model. You can just tell by the specs, like, guys, something is off here. And can make a tremendous difference. Even just asking, like, you know, one of the foundation model labs, like, open AI. I'm sure they could tell you, like, hey, do not restrict these three parameters. And it just seems like there was not enough.

They would answer. Nvidia doesn't answer these questions. But I think maybe... Invita wouldn't. But I mean, you could imagine that plenty of the labs that will compete with Chinese labs would love to answer that question. Yep. Because they have a huge incentive not to be out-competed by DeepSeek, right?

Yep. And so you got to... But maybe they'll be talking their own book too much. Yeah, there's always dynamics. But at least having a technologist in the room would be beneficial. Anyway, this was fantastic. Thank you so much for hopping on. We'd love to have me back to more.

news. We will talk to you soon. Enjoy the rest of your Friday. Have a great weekend. Cheers. You took a talk to you soon. Um, if closing out the news for the week. We have let's take it over. Oh yeah. Let's take it over to Tyler. How are the horse electrolytes? Okay. So I think, uh, so it says a scoop. One scoop is for light exercise. Okay. So for, I think probably a medium sized horse, I assume. Okay. So it's, uh, it's, I'm looking at the ingredients. It's there's an incredible amount. It's like all salt. It's also. Of course. It's. Of course. Yes.

You have to at least chat GPT that you're not, like, taking a deadly dose of salt right now. I think it's probably fine. Probably fine. We'll go with probably fine. That's the horse mentality. It smells. Smells good. Does it have like a lemon lime taste to it?

Is it apple? Oh, it's strong. It's like I'm drinking salt water. Yeah. Amazing. I think you might have to water. There's lemon in there. There's some, there's definitely some flavor.

I mean, it says apple flavor. I'm not really getting any apple notes. Yes. okay well congratulations you did it in under an hour and a half you did it well you have a whole summer to finish the whole bucket yeah what was the final time an hour and 15 minutes i think hour 19 hour 19 that's still way faster than chat chp t clocked it i i took a picture of that of that of that anderil lego set build time i said how long do you think it will take to put together this pretty simple 619 piece lego set said a beginner would take three or four hours an intermediate

builder two to three hours and an experienced Lego fan 1.5 to two hours you did it better than they did so I think you are only wrong in your own you overestimated yourself but you outperform the average Lego builder so congrats for that okay enjoy the horse I'm sweating a lot I think this will help me you know bring me back to yeah yeah you're you're sweating out the electrolytes you need to refresh this makes a lot of sense this is great everybody in tech is always talking about going to the horse doctor but never talking about getting a horse electrolytes over the counter. Yes, yes, the horse electrolytes are key. That's what you want to be taking. Well, the scale, the scale deal has officially closed. Met is paying 14.3 billion to buy 49% of scale. The industry's leading data dealer. Alex Wang wrote a note to scale employees.

He said, when I founded scale in 2016, it was amidst some of the early AI breakthroughs. DeepMind had just released AlphaGo and Google had just released TensorFlow. It was still incredibly early. was clear even then that data was the lifeblood of AI systems, and that was the inspiration behind starting scale. Since then, the journey has been extraordinary. We've grown to over 1,500 people, become a trusted partner for model builders, enterprises, and governments, building and deploying the smartest AI tools and applications. Scale is now one of the most

impactful companies in the world. He closes by saying, today's investment also allows us to give back in recognition of your hard work and dedication to scale over the past several years. the proceeds from Meta's investment will be distributed to those of you who are shareholders invested equity holders while maintaining the opportunity to continue participating in our future growth as ongoing equity holders. The exceptional team here has been key to our success. So I'm thrilled to be able to return the favor with this meaningful liquidity distribution. So congratulations to everyone.

Let's give it up. Hit the gong for liquidity events, John. Lee Marie, Eric Tornberg. Lots of winners, lots of winners. Lots of winners. friends of the show. Ben Thompson broke it down in a piece talking about meta and scale AI. The most obvious explanation for the structures that meta wants to avoid the sort of antitrust

scrutiny that would attend to an acquisition. This explanation applies broadly. Big Tech generally and meta specifically are under massive scrutiny in terms of acquisitions, including meta going to trial for acquisitions made over a decade ago and narrowly, Scale AI is a supplier for not just meta, but also meta's competitors. The problem is that it's is is is is that just meta isn't acquiring scale AI doesn't mean the deal can't be scrutinized indeed section seven of the Clayton Act is explicit about covering only partial acquisitions. So the FTC can still review this, but it'll probably be a little bit easier and so that's what they're gunning for. These guidelines were reaffirmed by the Trump administration earlier this year. So a lot of people were expecting it to be complete game on anyone can acquire anything. That hasn't been the case. We heard.

about this on the campaign trail, a lot of folks in the Trump administration were signaling that Lena Khan made some good points, and they were not going to completely reverse course, even if they were going to replace her. Even beyond that, says Ben Thompson. However, and perhaps this makes the regulator's point, it seems likely that this will kill scale AI's business with the big labs in particular, who would be concerned about their data ending up in the hands of meta, which is to say that this is a deal that would destroy the enterprise value that meta is theoretically investing in, And so that will be something that will be debated in these merger guidelines when the FTC ultimately reviews it. But it's looking pretty good because they close pretty quickly.

As it is, many of the labs, particularly Open AI, have been bringing in more of their data work in-house, which helped contribute to scale AI missing revenue targets last year from the information. They reported this. I mean, they still put up amazing numbers. And so obviously a lot of stuff was working. But you could imagine that some of the labs were starting to bring these. If they really are believers in, hey, we got to own our data collection and data processing forever. Let's build that function in house.

And I think they started to do that, or at least partner with other competitors in the space. And so Ben Thompson continues to write about meta's reset. In fact, the more pertinent angle to discuss this deal is probably Lama. Lama 4 was widely viewed as a disappointing model and a big portion of the original Lama team has since left META. and Ben Thompson thought that Mark Zuckerberg's media tour about AI seemed a bit forced and unfocused and had heard through the grapevine that Zuckerberg was considering a wholesale reset of the company's AI efforts, with the biggest priority being the search for a new AI chief to take firmer control over the company effort. In that, in the end, may be the Occam's razor explanation for the deal.

This is a very expensive aquire Alexander Wang, scale AI's co-founder and CEO, with the price softened a bit by virtue of paying scale AI for work that Mehta was going to have the company do anyway. Wang isn't a researcher, but he's an executive and leader who is familiar with the space, and meta needs leadership in addition to talent. He's a deals guy. He's a deals guy. He's going to meta and continue to be dealmaking, which will be, I think, a great asset to meta overall. And so Ben Thompson closes with a little bit on sustaining versus disruptive innovation.

The other reason to believe meta versus Google comes down to the difference between disruptive and sustaining innovations. The late professor Clayton Christensen described the day. difference. And we're familiar with that. So the question of whether generative AI is sustaining or disruptive innovation for Google remains uncertain two years after Ben Thompson raised the question. Obviously, Google has tremendous AI capabilities, both in terms of infrastructure and research and generative AI, is a sustaining innovation for its display advertising business and its cloud business. At the same time, the long-term questions around search monetization remain as pertinent as ever. And this is the question I want to debate with Ben when he comes on the show. There is this, there's this idea.

So it came out earlier that Senator Pachai had not read the innovator's dilemma and people were saying, oh, like he should have because this is the classic example of Google being disrupted by a new technology, generative AI. Ben Thompson said, it doesn't matter. The whole point of disruptive innovation is that it is structural and therefore it doesn't matter if you've read the book. There's nothing you can do about it. That's kind of the point of disruptive innovation. You're being disrupted.

But my question is, what if Google had chatbots before chat GPT? What if they had launched the Gemini app first and been the first to market and gained all of that like memetic attention? Yeah. Well, the disruptive innovation framework would say that Google would be in a tough spot because they wouldn't be able to monetize Gemini as quickly as they were losing volume in search. And so search revenues would decline faster than they could make it back up on the new model. And so what we're seeing right now is JATGPT is growing their 10 billion in revenue. but I don't think we're seeing a fall off in search. It seems additive.

And so the weirdest thing is that if you ran back the simulation and you did put Google in a position, like let's just say Google owned 100% of chat chbtee. Like the combined enterprise value would not be, the stock would not be in the trash as they disrupted themselves. And so there's this interesting question of like there's this fear that your earnings will drop as you pivot away from search-based display, advertising, search advertising to a subscription chatbot model. But I don't know if that's actually playing out because the overall market, the combined revenues of Google and OpenAI seem to be not declining. Like we're not in this in a deer.

We're not in this in this trough of like disruption necessarily. Meta and Facebook had the luxury of, you know, acquiring Instagram, starting to monetize Instagram, still being able to grow Facebook at that time. I mean, maybe there's a little bit in decent. I remember when when when meta was was like in the process of somewhat being disrupted by TikTok they launched reels and there was questions about reels monetization because if people spend more time on reels than than the normal Instagram feed and there aren't as many ads in reels as there are in the feed

well then even though the user time might be going up your revenue might be going down and so that was a fear that was something that was weighing on the stock ultimately it was not borne out but I don't I I'm just not seeing the data but I want to dig into it more I want to talk to to Ben about it because there's clearly, I think I'm wrong, but for reasons I'm unaware of. And so I've been digging into that. So Ben goes on to write meta, however, does not have a search business to potentially disrupt

and a whole host of ways to leverage generative AI across this business. This is what I was talking about with Joe Wisenthall talking about even if meta doesn't get like a banger AI first consumer product out into the market. They just have so many AI generative AI workloads, whether that's sorting ads, generating ads, internal profanity filtering, all their different content moderation.

I think also, I think it's easy to see how meta will benefit from more, in 10 years from now, more content will be produced, which means better, the more good content will be produced, even if it looks like AI slop right now. And when you think about the business holistically and meta as effectively, an entertainment company. Will people can want more and more entertainment?

This is what Ben Thompson was reading about. He said, Meta Strategy is to commoditize your compliments. Generative AI is a complement to Meta's platforms. Yes, if people are using generative AI to generate slop, that's still fine as long as people

are enjoying it. But ultimately, people will use it as a different tool for video editing and sound generation and drop out the background noise and replace my background. with a cinematic, you know, vista or something like that. So, um, so for Zuckerberg and company, Ben Thompson thinks AI is absolutely a sustaining technology, which is why it ultimately makes sense to spend whatever is necessary to get

the company moving in the right direction. It's also worth noting that meta doesn't really have any alternatives other than continuing to invest. Google is a competitor for advertising the most financially compelling use case today. Open AI is a competitor for consumer attention. Meta's most important scarce resource. I suppose Anthropic would be a potential partner, but per the point above, that seems like the ultimate culture clash. If anything, the most compatible partners for meta would be Microsoft and Apple, but the former is obviously tied up with Open AI.

And the latter, well, never say never forever, but definitely never for now. Great ending to Ben Thompson's update. That's right. Well, we have a video that we can pull up that hit the timeline earlier this morning. Please. Let's review it. I was able to confront PT. Oh, yeah. And I think we should play it.

Let's play it. We saw him on the street. Is it true that competition is for losers? Sir, is it true that you encourage young people to drop out of university? The background. Mr. Teal, is it true that your funds have double-digit GP commits? Sir, how can you say your contrarian when everyone is contrarian? Mr. Teal, is it possible for there to be too much?

venture capital? Never. Mr. Teal, have you been a victim of other VCs gaming the Midas list? Absolutely. Sir, why do you refuse to pick a favorite René's Gerard book? Mr. Teal, what do you have to say to people that think they're a lottery ticket? Mr. Teal, must all venture returns be power law distributed? Sir, why do you think why questions are overdetermined? Oh man, well, really asking the pressing important questions, the questions that, you know, he clearly doesn't want to answer. But I'm sure over time, you know, we'll have them on the show and we'll try to pull some of those answers out.

That's a fun. I mean, the last story we should cover before we drop off, Chinese AI companies dodge U.S. chip curbs by flying suitcases of hard drives abroad. Leonard on the show mentioned this. engineers are carrying data to countries where Nvidia chips are available, frustrating Washington's aims. No one really anticipated this, but apparently Chinese engineers are transporting hard drives with AI training data to Malaysia.

So they take all their training data, they load it onto a bunch of hard drives, throw those in suitcases, fly to Malaysia, and then do the training run there, and then take the weights back. And so that's like the chips aren't even moving. Like the whole idea of exporting chips is now irrelevant if you can do the run locally.

in a different country. So this AI diffusion story is going to become so much more complex. Like, it's just going to be so complicated forever because there's going to be shell companies. And if people are willing to do this, anything is on the table. The next deep secret run is going to be, it's going to be a movie. It's going to be a movie. Anyway, we will be following it here. We hope you have a fantastic weekend.

And we will see you on Monday. I cannot wait, John. I cannot wait for Monday. Be back at this table. Two more sleeps. two more sleeves two more sleeves we're not going live on Sunday we might we might we might if there's

if there's emergency we might go live you never know but until then thank you for tuning in folks the rest of your weekend have a great rest of your Friday and we'll see Monday we'll see you Monday