TBPN - Diet TBPN: October 29, 2025

Episode Date: October 30, 2025

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The Fed two minutes ago came out and announced that the Fed cut barren cost by a quarter of a percentage point. The second time. The studio goes crazy. The studio goes crazy. Let's ring the go. Nothing like cutting into froth. Yeah, warm it up a little bit, John. Okay.

The 1X robot launched and it's burning up the timeline. People love it. People hate it. People have breaking news. It's teleoperated, folks. It's teleoperated. It's not an end-to-end. hey I'm machine learning model and people are saying that like it's breaking news but they're saying

that the demos that have been given so far tell are operated yeah and I just don't think that's a scoop I don't think that's a scoop wait no I think they're going to ship a teleoperated robot I think that's the point Tyler you break it down in the video it seems like there's a lot of tasks that it can do like fully autonomously sure and then there's some tasks which are a little bit more complex that you can use expert mode okay which is when someone will basically be like observing the robot as it's doing the thing and then it can I assume that they can like interfere it seems like you can a human to be in VR and operate your robot for you to do things that it can't just do automatically. I tried the robot that's coming to live with you. It's still part human. First,

it needs to be controlled by a human in your home. Is that cool with you? Obviously, there's privacy discussions here. The big like bombshell post right now is from MKBHD who got 12,000 likes on a post saying, so to be clear, this is a pre-order for a humanoid home robot that will cost $20,000 or $500 per month when it may be ships next year, and it's currently not finished. Joanna Stern got to do a demo, and in its current state, 100% of its actions are teleoperated.

So of the tests that she did... That's anybody that's buying the robot today or pre-ordering it assumes that there will be some tasks that it can do that's non-tele-operated. Sure. I don't really know. I think people buy it and say, yeah, I'm paying 20K,

and then I'm also paying $2 an hour for someone to teleoperate this thing and actually do the dishes effectively. I'm a huge teleoperation bowl. Look, you can teleoperate a Porsche. You put the robot in the Porsche and then you are driving the car. There we go. remotely, I'm sure there won't be any problem operating the three pedals at 75 miles an hour. If somebody maybe had a few too many drinks.

You can put this. And so they legally couldn't operate a vehicle. Yeah. Could they teleoperate on their phone, a robot that was just, driving the vehicle. Absolutely. I love that this robot looks unique. I think they have like a, I love the color choices, very kind of like skims adjacent

almost. This is a new take on a robot and they're going for cute. But if this thing is being teleoperating your kitchen, let's say it's loading like dirty dishes from your sink. Yeah. Into the, or from your table into your dishwasher. And then it picks up a big knife. And it just starts me.

it over and then it just pauses there. You look over at your robot and it's just sitting there looking at you like this with a knife and it's in. Are you not going to get a little freaked out? This thing looks cute, but the second it's got like a kitchen knife in its hand and it's looking at you, does it really look that cute?

Is it cute? I would give this like an eight out of ten on the cute scale. I'm giving it an eight out of ten too until it picks up the kitchen knife. I without a mouth. Eye without a mouth is maybe an odd choice. Yeah. One thing I don't understand is the price. strategy, so $499 a month or $20,000.

Yep. I do have some facts here from their FAQ. Will my Neo be fully autonomous? Neo works autonomously by default for any chore request. It doesn't know. You can schedule a 1X expert to guide it. Who are the 1X experts? 1X employees physically present in the USA.

Okay. That's interesting. My sense is that the unit economics on these are going to be like really, really, really rough initially. Yeah. Because these 1x experts in the USA are by default going to be making a lot more than like $2 an hour. This minimum wage. The magic here is like it's half actually figure out the technology and half like financial engineering.

You have to do this extremely delicate dance where you keep the capital coming in and burn and burn and burn. And you're probably burning more every year for a really long time. And then at the end you get the incredible reward. We saw this with Waymo. Weamo was founded in 2009. It's been 16 years. And then you look at VR. How much money has Mark Zuckerberg invested in the metaverse?

How much money has reality labs burned without it turning into a cash cow? Like they're not, they're still not making money off of reality labs. When you're going after these like frontier technologies, these really broad moonshots, you just wind up burning money for a decade potentially. And can you stay in the game as a venture backed company? It's really, really hard. But at the same time, these types of moonshots are exactly what venture capital should be going after. This is the goal of venture capital.

I can't wait to hook this bad boy up to a reasoning model on 11 labs and send it door to door selling knives. My concern is that having a humanoid in the first, at least few years, will be like having a four-year-old helping you. I'm just imagining me like, oh yeah, wow. I just had like a fantastic dinner. 20 of my closest friends came over. We had a dozen bottles of wine. It was great. Hey, Neo, can you clean those 25 wine glasses up? And it's like, no problem, boss. Smash, smash, smash. Just shattering everything. It's just like slipping on the glass and like falling. Buy the robot. Get hired as a remote robot operator. Become your own robot. Get paid to do chores and chill in your own house.

What? This is the job of the future, folks. Tyler, what are you thinking? I would like to see them go the Uber route, right? You saw those tasks that drivers can do in between rides, so then they can just put on the VR headset if they don't have a ride currently, then they just teleoperate for a little bit. And then maybe they're only halfway through their task

when the next drive comes in, so then someone else just put it in. Because we don't know it was actually behind the robot. So it could be multiple people. It's true. Zuckerberg's Clanker watching yours and your wife's Clanker in 2035. The clanker slurs are going to be through the roof over the next few years. What Not from YC Winter 2020 is now a decicorn.

Congratulations. What Not has raised $225 million at an $11.5 billion valuation. The company plans to announce on Tuesday. It seems like live shopping might finally be working. In America. We've heard about it in China. Oh, it's so massive in China. We were wondering when it would come to America.

It feels like it must have came. In China, people will just straight up buy like vets. Yeah. They'll be like people will be selling coconuts live streaming. Here it's like trading cards, sports cards, various collectible toys. Let me tell you about Vanta.com, automate compliance, manage risk, improve trust continuously. Vantz's trust management platform takes the manual work out of your security compliance process and replaces it with continuous automation.

We have been in serious problem. This is ASML. Talking about substrates approach in their new lithography system so we can get more info from James in a little bit, but this company was announced yesterday and announced about a, was it a hundred on a billion, straight out the gates? It was a hundred on a billion, straight out of the gate. Not bad, not bad. Logan Paul was a series A investor and whatnot, so he's going from a 90 million to an 11.5 billion dollar valuation, not too shabby at all. It makes so much sense that

Logan Paul would have invested in this company. He's seen firsthand every single, iteration and turn of what's happening on social media, on content, on commerce. An IPO is now the most likely path forward for open AI. Given the scale of capital, the company will need going forward. No surprises. No surprises there. Yes. More important news.

There's an abandoned McDonald's that NASA turned into a moon probe picture recovery lab. What? What is a moon probe picture recovery lab? They're calling it Mick Moons. Is it AI? No? No, it's not AI. If United came out and said,

we now have parachutes on board and you have a choice, you're flying to New York from L.A., and you have a choice between Delta, which does not have parachutes, and United that does have parachutes. Tyler, which one are you picking? I don't think I want my airline to have parachutes.

Why? That makes me way more scared. It's a pure upgrade in safety. Hard to understate what a blow this would be for America. leadership in AI if this happens. He's talking about how Trump has suggested he was open to providing China with access to NVIDIA's Blackwell chips as part of a trade deal, which would represent a major concession and rile up national security hawks in Washington. Maybe Trump is doing a little 5D chess. It's possible that he realizes that AI is about infinite slot machines. Yes. Adult

content. It's actually in America's interest to get as many black wells to China as possible. So that they all get one shot at. This is the modern information war. This is the cybernetic future war that's happening between America and China. You can only have the Blackwells if you give a free plan of GBT40 to every citizen. Zijun Ping's just, you're absolutely right. I would love to give every citizen, Ani, with sexy mode. In other news, Oliver Cameron, friend of the show, introduced Odyssey 2,

instant interactive AI video type a few words and AI instantly imagines a video that feels alive. So the real-time video generation wars are in full swing. Having some AI follow you into your Zoom meetings or Google Meet for taking notes is the digital equivalent of showing up to a meeting with your fly-down. What do you think? You're anti-clanker in the group chat. I'll never let him in. The golden age, a private credit is over. Private credit winter is coming.

Guy named Jason who says, that's nice, but I'd prefer not to lose any money, so please make sure the government is prepared to cover all potential losses. If not for everyone, then for me and my cohort, specifically. Warm regards. Me and my cohort? What is that mean? Bending spoons. Yes. European Software Conglomerate has acquired America Online, AOL, and raised $2.8 billion of debt to get it done. It's painful that America online will be owned by a European software conglomerate.

But let's hit the gong for raising $2.8 billion in debt to buy a legacy digital asset. We've got to have somebody on from Bending Spoons because I don't feel like I have a good understanding of this company at all. They acquired Evernote. They acquired We Transfer. It's such a funny name for a company. They acquired Vimeo. so they are kind of all over the place. We will talk to you later.

Have a beautiful, productive evening. CMA.