TBPN - FULL INTERVIEW: Alex Karp on AI, Job Loss, and the Future of Work

Episode Date: March 12, 2026

This is our full interview with Alex Karp, recorded live on TBPN.We discuss why AI could eliminate large numbers of white-collar jobs and trigger political backlash against the tech industry, unpack how Palantir’s hybrid model of software, deployment teams, and institutional knowledge allows companies to transform operations in months rather than years, and debate what the United States must do to stay competitive in the AI era from rebuilding domestic manufacturing and expanding vocational education to preparing for a world where AI development shapes geopolitics, national security, and the future of work.TBPN is a live tech talk show hosted by John Coogan and Jordi Hays, streaming weekdays from 11–2 PT on X and YouTube, with full episodes posted to podcast platforms immediately after. Described by The New York Times as “Silicon Valley’s newest obsession,” TBPN has recently featured Mark Zuckerberg, Sam Altman, Mark Cuban, and Satya Nadella. Sign up for TBPN’s daily newsletter at TBPN.comTBPN.com is made possible by:Ramp - https://Ramp.comAppLovin - https://axon.aiCisco - https://www.cisco.comCognition - https://cognition.aiConsole - https://console.comCrowdStrike - https://crowdstrike.comElevenLabs - https://elevenlabs.ioFigma - https://figma.comFin - https://fin.aiGemini - https://gemini.google.comGraphite - https://graphite.comGusto - https://gusto.com/tbpnKalshi - https://kalshi.comLabelbox - https://labelbox.comLambda - https://lambda.aiLinear - https://linear.appMongoDB - https://mongodb.comNYSE - https://nyse.comOkta - https://www.okta.comPhantom - https://phantom.com/cashPlaid - https://plaid.comPublic - https://public.comRailway - https://railway.comRamp - https://ramp.comRestream - https://restream.ioSentry - https://sentry.ioShopify - https://shopify.comTurbopuffer - https://turbopuffer.comVanta - https://vanta.comVibe - https://vibe.coFollow TBPN:https://TBPN.comhttps://x.com/tbpnhttps://open.spotify.com/show/2L6WMqY3GUPCGBD0dX6p00?si=674252d53acf4231https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/technology-brothers/id1772360235https://www.youtube.com/@TBPNLive

Well, we are joined by Alex Carp. Welcome to the show. Thank you so much for taking the time. You guys want with or without hat? Whatever is comfortable for you. You can do. It's cold. Keep your hat on.

I feel like this is an average day for you. You're always on skiing. We should have done that. Yeah, we need to get, we're close to getting skis. Look. We let you know we're supposed to do something physical. It's starting to stick. It's starting to stick.

Oh, I like this. But now I feel like a newscaster. I feel like, oh yeah. This is good. You're like eight feet tall. You don't realize that. He's not standing up because it would be like he's like counteract for all of us Last time we talked to you I think you were doing four minutes on the dead hang what's it up to now?

505. 505 what about in the cold though? That's going to affect it right? Sorry we need to have a special minute for that. 5.05 for those of you who haven't done a dead hang first of all go do it. Why is it important? Well there are very few things that are proxy indicators that are accurate for health. Yeah it's like dead hang farmers walk body weight. and V-O-2 are the three ones that count.

Okay. I don't think anyone really- What about one rep match bench press? That's all I focus on. Okay, well, you know, it's like... I feel like as long as I have a really impressive bench press, I'll live a short, but glorious life. Yeah, I don't know. Didn't they say something about that?

Yeah, that sounds... Who wants to live a long, glorious life? Yeah, I think that's what they tell you before they give you a bad salary. I think it's like, yeah, it's like, yeah, it's like, yeah, my social life is so great, I only have a bot, but I I enjoy it. A kind of logic. No, but no, it's, um, dead hang is important. Dead hang is crucial.

Okay. And you really need to go work on it, especially anyone watching your podcast. Yes. Is likely to outperform. Yeah. You want to have some, you know, you want to be able to do something with that outperformance. Yeah. Like dead hang.

Like, yeah, well, the dead hang may be a proxy indicator for other things you could do with your outperformance. Yes. You know, but not everyone is, yeah, not everyone is like six foot nine. And like you may not need a dead hang. But the rest of us, well, I can cheat because most of the pull-up bars, I just stand on the floor. That's right, yeah. And I can hold forever.

You can't forever, yeah. That's right, that's right. But when you're not dead hanging, what should people be doing with the new coding agents? How important is it to learn to code? How important is it to? Look, there are two, that everybody's worried about like their future, but there are basically two ways to know you have a future. One, you have some vocational training. Okay.

So it's like, or two, you're neurodivergent. And, and I, when I say, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, neurodivergent I mean broadly defined like your guys are sitting here you could have had a corporate tool job yeah you could have been like I don't want to pick on Goldman but like just say you know like a job I replied there they turned me down well yeah you could have a job where you're like a car he tried he failed actually maybe they didn't know the right way to test yeah like it's like yeah they were like you know and whatever I'm not picking on one or the other I'm

just saying you you you know they're like you are here you think you're here because it's actually you probably wouldn't be able to do that shit because there's like it's the same thing as sit down in class and learn some bullshit like and you just regurgitate it like that's not a valuable thing if you are actually have insights into anything and you have real technical expertise yeah like you know you can look at a company but you actually can look at it because you know something about how these things work or something about clients work you know then all the other stuff that used to be precious like being able to do low-end coding, being able to do low-end lowering, being able to do low-end reading

and writing. I mean, this is like, I feel like Odin came down and was like, I'm going to make the world just right for a dyslexic. It's like, yeah, Odin has come down from our locky has come down and said, you know what, carp, you suffered so much as a kid. Yeah. I'm just going to make the whole world. So everyone else can suffer. I don't want that. It's like now, but it's really an inversion. Like, everybody with like the normal shape skills are dyslexics. Because like, the Meaning the thing they can do that used to be valuable is not so valuable. The thing that they need to learn to do is like be more of an artist, look at things from a different direction, be able to build something unique. And you see this on the battlefield, like one of the most underappreciated things about fighting war, which is the, I mean, there are basic core things civilizations do, like build technology for war, is every society fights differently.

Every component of the society fights differently. And when, like, American as allies, we do not even approach these problems in the same way. What it makes America lethal, more so than any currently country, is like a combination of, obviously, the technology, which we're super interested in and believe are paying a huge part in. But it's, like, 20 years of, like, operators figuring out what worked, not what worked in a manual.

Like, what work in reality. Also, even selection. at the selection of people. Like you meet like tier one operators. They don't look anything like what people would think. It's not like the movies. They're like these like these like this big and like, you know, it's like because we have. Yeah, we have we have we have specialized ways of doing that. All that is crazy valuable. As a proxy indicator, people who are getting their news from you are just likely to massively outperform. People are getting their news from something that's a regurgitation of you got to vote for one party or the other.

Sure. And then the real problem we have in society is not your listeners or palanteers, customers, or our partners is like, well, what happens to everyone else? Are they going to lynch us? Because like that's the real problem. Like these products, like what we're building, like our agents, mean that like the most, I mean, the most powerful people in the Democratic Party are highly educated female voters. And these technologies, like they love, they, I mean, like, yeah, I actually get along with all these people in private

and there's a public dispute, but largely, I've talked to Darya over and over and it's like, yeah, you love one company because they're not pro-Trump, that company's taking your job. How are you gonna feel about that company when you find it, you have no job? And what do you think the Republican Party's gonna do to products that do not support our military?

What do you think the Democratic Party's gonna do to prox, even if you're voting for them, that are taking away the jobs of every one of your constituents and saying, oh, people are gonna love you so much and you're gonna be poor. By the way, we love you so much, we're gonna give you a little, handout once a month. Yeah. So apply that to the the SaaSpocalypse narrative, the

enterprise SaaS. There's an idea that the first jobs that will be taken might be the enterprise software products that exist haven't really innovated, have lock in, and they're going to be repletformed away from. If you, the thing that these technologies do is they also make it harder to lie about, is part of the political problem. If something's not creating value or something's not working or there's corruption, you can't can't lie about it. And nobody believes that all software companies actually create value. I mean, the famous thing that we all learned was that we rejected that you were learned and people taught you. It's like, your software company is supposed to give the client a feeling

they're getting laid while they're getting fucked. Now, if that's how your products actually are, you are, now it's you are going to get fucked. And this is going to happen so quickly. And the simple test for people who are looking this is does this product or in our case we were never pure software we're actually like a hybrid of like humans yep FDEs augmented humans so AI FTEs yeah and then orchestration and then in essentially what we would call primitives like taking the tribal knowledge of institution coding it into logic and then using that to be extended in LMs okay but we don't have to explain that to our clients

yeah you know so so there's there was always this always Palantier consulting firm is it all just people, is there any real software? I feel like that narrative went away. Oh, no, no. They couldn't invest in us because we were a service company. And now, now it's like, and now, but is, is actually having that service? Oh no, of course.

Better in the future. No, no, it's not better. It's crucial. It's crucial. Yeah, yeah. Like all these places that made fun of us. Yes. They're running around and trying to get FDs.

Of course, getting an FTE is like, yeah, it's like, yeah, it's not as easy as it sounds. Because you have to know how to manage it, where to put the person, how to extract value. And then you need all these products that augment the FDE. What are those products? Ontology, Foundry, FDI AI things that we've built. Yeah. So the value of the business is not a monolithic code base that never changes. It is the people. It is the deployment, is the relationships. Is that how you're thinking about the business these days?

Well, actually the way I'm telling you, like when you walk around here, they only care, they don't care about any of that. What they care about is you transform my business in three months. it would have taken three years and IE would never have happened. That's what they care about. Now then there's a question of how do you do that? And that is a concatenate. It's artistry. It's like select client, select where you would start,

select ways in which you innovate in ways they would not accept, innovate in places they do not understand you should innovate. Learn to manage these very complex. By the way, it's not just culturally complex. It's tribal knowledge. And much of that tribal knowledge is in rules. that they have to apply because there are all sorts of rules about manufacturing, hospitals, or rules that are applied that they're not saying they apply, laws, like all sorts of regulatory

things on top of all that. All that has to happen very rapidly. So you would need, and like without going into details, like I'm in the middle of like every single one of these discussions, in almost every breakdown. It's like people do not understand how institutions work. They don't understand how the software would work. They don't have the L.LM would work. They don't have the product that would actually work in that environment and they still at the end of the day are not saying we're going to charge on value. Okay, how do institutions work? Why is it that we get these genius models that are 160 IQ, they can solve incredible math and they're not just like everywhere all of the time? What is slow-down adoption? Well, I mean, the simple version is they're 160 against a test. Yeah. But the test isn't, it's a can patination. The simple math would be it's 160 on one test, but you've got to pass differentiated

tests over a long period of time so it's a thousand tests yeah so de facto by the 50th step it's zero IQ but then there's also there's also yeah I mean it's like it's insane like no I love when I hear about all this is gonna replace and I go to our clients and they're like could we have more we don't even have the capacity it's like it's a surreal thing like would you guys like to be FD's because we need some help if you're in the audience completely seriously and you're aligned broadly speaking with America is a great country. You don't have to agree about anything else. And you're out there and you're technical or just smart. Apply. We need you.

Okay. America is a great country. Put aside Democrat, put aside Republican. Is democracy the correct formulation to decide the future of AI? Should the American people be voting to decide? Or should that be handled by private companies? No, America, well, it depends. It like, yeah, great. So in the war fighting context, the Department of War has to be the arbiter of what gets deployed. But as a citizen, I vote for the Department of War, correct? Exactly, yeah. Okay. But I'm just saying, so I want to split domestic and foreign because, like, we in this country have God-given rights, literally given to us by a higher being. There's a right of free expression, which we're exercising all the time, and is very important to us.

There's a Second Amendment, which I exercise. I shoot very well. I would encourage you guys and other people listening to avail yourself of the Second Amendment. Yes. It was not, it is there to protect ourselves in case the First Amendment fails. That's the reason it's there. There's a Fourth Amendment, which is essentially we have a right to privacy.

Right. Okay, we have those rights. Aversary is trying to kill us in Iran, do not have those rights. And I don't believe, I've never believed in extending our rights to foreign countries that are adversarial to us. I don't even really believe,

I don't like, you know, in Germany, where I lived half my life, they don't have a First Amendment. They don't believe it. And by the way, they've never believed in a First Amendment. They have other rights. That's great. I'm not going to dispute that, but I want our rights here. In this country, if you're going to tell the American people you're building what is clearly a dangerous technology,

it's dangerous because it will likely take your job, especially if you're white collar. So if you're voting, you're highly educated. Have you flipped on that in the last like six months or so? because I think the last time we talked, your general mindset was like high agency, highly productive people will be able to continue to leverage the tools to deliver value within organizations. Yeah, I think if you're neurodivergent

in high agency and you're highly educated, that's great. But if you're not neurodivergent and you're like lawyer 14506, that's a problem. Okay, but let me get to this, and they're linked, but it's okay, on domestic stuff, I we have rights that are not subject to majority rule like I in a majority can vote against us having Fourth Amendment rights I want that I want that litigated at the Supreme Court because I we are not our Constitution is not about majority it's actually about the rights of the minority and it's our right all I bet you the three of us have opinions that are very much in the minority sure that we want to be able to say at least in the privacy of our own home right and so So there are real issues. I'm super sympathetic with restrictions around the use of these products in a domestic context, even though it's funny. People out there, every conspiracy theorist thinks, it's insane. I'm the only one.

Conspiracy theorists, you may hate this, but there's one person protecting your right to be a conspiracy theorist that actually has a seat at the table. And that person is me. You may not want to hear that truth, but it's, it is fucking true. And maybe do a little more reading before you pontificate all. on you're absurd and obviously it'll have formed in many times stupid opinions. Okay, so because like you're attacking the person who's protecting you, idiot. It's like fucking so stupid. Do you use one of the bots to correct your opinion.

It's like I'm being attacked online now. It's like Dr. Carp is anti-progressive because of my whole life. I'm just telling you the truth. These things are going to take your job. Okay, so then, but in the war fighting context, and it's the primary justification for the these products has to be, they're two relevant powers now, us and China. This is a have, half, have not world.

It's going to be either us or them, it's basically deciding the world order. Because like these other countries and maybe India will get involved, maybe the Arab, non-Arab Middle East, but currently on the trajectory we're on now, there are two places where these things are being developed and deployed, it's us or them. And I'm not particularly, you know, I'm not out to hurt China. I'm just out to, I think we should win.

I'm not trying to hurt them. And in that context, you can't say we're not going to do X, Y, and Z. I mean, I give you examples, but like, there are data sets that are publicly available in the U.S. market that should, I don't think should be used against you and me in a law enforcement context more than with the help of, say, AI agents and ontology. But if you don't use it on the battlefield, obviously Iran's going to use them. You don't think they can go online and buy those products? And by the way, without going into somewhat classified, those things are in combination with other things, lethal. Like a lot of people who want to hurt America on the battlefield end up dead

because of our ability to aggregate and then figure out what's going on in the battlefield before they can figure out what we're doing. And so, like, I'm very much in favor of it for moral reasons, but I'm also in favor of it. I don't know how else you explain this to the American people. We're going to take your job. We're going to take away, you're going to eviscerate your ability to have money and power, but that we're not going to defend you on the battlefield.

It just seems like, yeah, well, they're going to, you know what's actually going to happen, that nobody believes me in tech, but there's going to be a movement in this country that gets very strong, very quickly to nationalize these things. First, it's going to be take away all our money. The billionaires are evil. You may not have heard that. It's super evil. And if you take away their money, it'll help poor people.

Yes. That's really important to understand. Making rich people miserable is the only way to help poor people. That's obviously true. So once you've learned that, the next thing you're going to learn is we have to nationalize They're gonna, they're gonna quote you on that. Yeah, well, it's like, you're quoted you on.

So, I mean, it sounds like you're, you're closer to Dario on, you know, potentially 50% of early stage white collar job loss. Like you're, you're aware that there's a risk, at least everyone's aware of it. Well, what do you see as the solution? Well, first we just have to, I mean, well, I mean, the obvious thing is, okay, we can't have any migration here. Like, how are we gonna create more job?

Like, it's like, you have to, The problem in fairness, not that people want to be in the business of being fair to policy leaders, but we are dealing with technologies that will determine the policy decisions. So you can't just pretend they're not happening. Step one is like we, it's going to be hard but possible to make this society work, given that transforming it requires these technologies. Like I really like the people here. They're not here because they like me.

Like, maybe they're here for my jokes, high quality in some cases. But it's like a long trip and we're here and I'm the only one who likes this weather is great weather. I brought it for you. It's, uh, but, um, they're here because they've seen their business being transformed. And this is happening in America more than it. So we have to win those battles, but the costs are going to be very high. And so you have to work back from, okay, the costs are going to be very high. We, we can't put oil on the fire.

It's like, you know, it's like, well, getting jobs. for all Americans is going to be hard and people maybe who become Americans but it's like you have to have different policies around migration you have to different policies around how we train people like currently if you're a young kid in high school and you're neurodivergent they're literally chaining into your chair and feeding you medication so you can have skills that are not valuable yeah like it's so it's like and then we'll probably over time have to have like a discussion of like yeah if you go into this

career you're not gonna have a job like a really on discussion about that these are the places where you will likely have a job and yeah help what you know it seems like we as a country will probably head down a more European path where it is becomes very very difficult or near impossible to let people go do you think that's correct you mean in Germany it's much harder to to lay someone off I mean that does impact I mean that does impact the the growth of companies.

But I think many Germans would argue that's probably... Yeah, you know, Germany's... I mean, I'll answer your question. Germany's an interesting place. I did this thing in German where I basically told the truth, which you're not allowed to do in Germany. It's like, you know, it's kind of really bad situation

and the economy sucks, the migration thing's a complete disaster, and the energy situation is like compounds everything. And I got thousands of people, literally, saying, thank God, someone told the truth. truth. And there are a lot of people like you guys, young people building things that feel hampered and are correct to feel hampered. I think the American version, if we're not

careful, is not going to be the German version. I think it's going to be hang the rich. I think it's going to be not protect everybody else. You're going to be like, look, this is too dangerous and we're going to hang the rich but not really help the poor. In fairness to the German version, like, you know, German like health insurance, insurance, all that stuff that works. Like I was, I was poor in Germany for like a decade. And like I had the best life on the planet. Like, it was like being poor in Germany is like being better than being rich here.

And so in some days. So basically policies that lift the floor, reeducation, training. So if you want to do what we could do here, the things we could adopt from Germany are, Germany has three high schools. Yeah. Two are vocational. Sure. One is academic.

Better education. Better programmatic, vocational. Vocational, it also has a bad, like a weird vibe here. Like vocational training in Germany is very technical. Like the people building the cars at BMW or even in the French version Airbus, like very complicated jobs, they didn't go to college. They went to a very, very high-end high school. And they come out without any debt.

And that stuff is really valuable. So if you want to, you have to completely transform our educational system and go very young into like training people to do things. You also need to change our testing system. like different forms of intelligence. All of our tests are built around things that were valuable in the Industrial Revolution. It's like you want to pull out all the dyslexics, all the neurodivergence. Everybody who can't sit or needs to build or wants to build have to go into a separate slot of like,

yeah, we should have gotten you before you got turned down at Coleman. And like said, this is like that's a waste of your time. You could be building something important. And what else goes to would be a part of the good outcome? Well, the most important part of the good outcome is what we, we show our adversaries, you can't fuck with us. And we're the best, we're the best military in the world. Hope, I believe we're doing that right now.

On the good outcome side, we go around, and then on the commercial side, we go to all these high infrastructure, you know, hospitals, manufacturing, all these things complicated infrastructure, and we AI enhanced all of them, so the products are legitimately the best more, and we rebuild manufacturing in this country.

Like a big problem for us, including on the battlefield, is our manufacturing just is not up to where we have, to be. And that, by the way, requires re-scaling, scaling humans, and we're doing this all over the place. I mean, the guy writing a lot of the scripts for the target, these people, they're like high school college grads, the people building batteries and all these things using our products. These are high school college guys. There's a lot of opportunity there. But, you know, one of the things I told the Germans, and I would say to us is, we, I was like, you know, in Germany, you have to call it a crisis. We do need, like, this is a crisis moment. America isn't tomorrow is not going to look like, it looked at all, or we're going to have radicalism on right or left. The problem, the danger is if we don't do these reforms, you are going to get the pitchforks

because then the only solution people are going to have is, well, you know, let's go after the unlikable rich people in tech, especially AI tech. And then, but then what can work is, yeah, close the borders, keep them closed, start doing huge vocational efforts, change how we test aptitude. Like, so we have an accurate diagnostic of where you could be slotted. be ruthless and like you know it's like in certain find out new ways to test and do ruthless testing and slotting and then also go around to universities and just I mean you know how when you like you want to smoke a cigarette it's like this this cigarette may be harmful to you

health maybe we should be putting that in universities this university this university is harmful for your investor you know I'm libertarian you want to go to university that may be harmful to your future money as well and your personal life explain to someone you got a million dollars Yeah, a million dollars in debt. I mean, maybe if you're six, nine, and you can get away with that, but the rest of us have to provide. That's funny.

Help me square this idea. You were talking earlier today about people misunderstanding your business. Yeah, what's it like to read about your business? Oh, I mean, first of all, it's, I mean, the part, I hate it, but then the part I love is, and it's like, you're valuable, your value is, your value is pretty directly convergent with people's inability to understand what you're doing.

Yeah. It's like all these technologies are potentially commodifying everything. Yeah. Okay. So if you are a business that is, you know, not services, not product, but both, but also works on tribal knowledge on data and every single business you make is individual. And so yeah, that's a crazy valuable business. That's true in a lot of industries where if the broader business community, doesn't understand your business, you might have a short report, but you'll have a way less competition.

Because people aren't copying you. Well, it's impossible to copy certain, like, and we neglect this, like, you know, almost like you even see it culturally, like luxury, like luxury products dominated by the French, watches dominated by the Swiss, currently certain kinds of war fighting, dominated by America. Yeah. And it's like, it's very hard for people to eviscerate these cultural advantages, and our products augment that, which makes it, you know, augments the, you know, it augments the the differentiated specific over the generalizable. And that's where literally all the value is gonna go. And it's gonna be like a water fault.

And that's the problem with a lot of software companies. It's like product ABCT. But then when you read it, it's like one of the more depressing things that you guys probably confront, but it's like a market, huge market opportunity for you. It's like, where are the experts? Like it's like, you know, it's like, you hope and pray, like I'll tell you the funniest thing

about my life now and people internally know almost every day I'm like wait a minute I'm the adult in the room here it's like everywhere I go it's like it's like wait a minute I like and it's like there it's like and it's big so it's surreal when you read about these things but and it's it used to really frustrate me but now I kind of just think well like I can't believe we're still viewed is crazy it's like everything we're doing is the only thing that's where I mean like I don't want to like spend a lot of time on our baller, essentially baller numbers from last year, but it's like, you know, clearly our

shit works. Clearly nothing is working at that level. And you would think they would take, like, I don't know, 10 minutes to think, okay, well, the thing I believed, and I thought it would work, didn't work at all. This thing I thought was insane is, as like a rule of 127 when like no one, like 40 is considered like, and like, but they don't. And then, and I, yeah, but it's sometimes frustrating honestly and the hard part actually is I kind of view it as a feature internally we get these bright-eyed kids so it's so funny I mean they want to get the best people in the world but you know just like I was probably at 21 they're very romantic it's like but why does the adult not understand this

it's like but but but the adult expert tells me it's like I don't know when you guys had to drop the shoe moment you realize that like the adults are like you know on crack or something Like, it's, okay. Last question. Would you rather have $10 million or access to chat GPT in 2012? It's a viral question that's going viral right now. I have to choose one or the other life.

I mean, okay, I'm just, I don't think it needs, I don't think I need to answer. I don't think I need $10,000. Can I have my social life in grad school? There we go. Okay, so that's a new pick. We just have to ask you this. You know, it's like, great, I'm gonna take something I value.

Okay, yeah, the most valuable thing for social life and grad school. Well, thank you so much for Yeah, thank you for time to come chat. It's fantastic. We'll talk to you soon.